Are You Ready to Surrender?
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Constantin Brancusi Portrait of George 1911 Last week, Tyler at Zero Hedge ran an article from a site called Adventures in Capitalism, i
[See the full post at: Are You Ready to Surrender?]“He concludes that we’re all going to get it, it’s no use resisting, there will never be a vaccine and herd immunity is all we have left to hope for.”
Yup.. and the consequences of getting it – given the increase in understanding and in treatment protocols – are going to be minor for the vast majority of us.The story of Covid parallels the 2002 WMD BS – politically-driven narrative, overwhelming hysteria, echoed and amplified by a fully homogenous MSM. Dissenting voices marginalised to the point of being almost invisible. A large number of rational people swept up in the tide of emotion and one-sided narrative.
If you can set aside your emotional investment in your previous position, take a few minutes to set down the facts as we now understand them:
– there is almost zero correlation between states and countries that locked down vs outcome (vs individual countries can be selectively chosen to justify one’s preexisting bias, but in considering all countries in aggregate there is negligible correlation
– due to non-linear spreading (eg “super-spreaders”) herd immunity is achievable at much lower levels than the 80% predicated (possibly as low as 20%). Many countries already have exposure to this level
– the initial projections and modelling from IC were ludicrously overstated, as were historical projections from this same organisation. Yet these were the sole figures widely quoted by governments and media at the outset, and served to terrify the populations
– the terrified population have become overwhelming passive and compliant, accepting suspension of basic liberties with nary a whimper
– meanwhile race riots are being fomented, tech giants are escalating and extending heavy-handed censorship of dissenting (primarily conservative) voicesTaken together, I just can’t accept this as “coincidence theory”. The virus is real, but a huge number of things we’ve been taught about it are not. Most importantly (as Dr D keeps reiterating), there is a critical distinction between the consequences of the virus, and the consequences of the actions that were taken ostensibly to manage the virus. Implosion of the global economies was a consequence of political choices, not an inevitability.
One of the things I admire about Tucker Carlson is his willingness to say “yeah I supported the invasion of Iraq. I was wrong, and I’ve learned from it”. Hopefully we’ll hear more people say the same over Covid, though by then the ship will have well sailed, and the political outcomes will have been realised by those who are pushing them.
http://www.johndayblog.com/2020/07/misplaced-fears.html
Fear is in the air. I smell it. I see it in people’s eyes and in their furtive actions, like anxiously jumping away from others..
Rulers maintain their power by managing the narrative which directs the fear in a way that makes people do what the rulers want. People are compliant when they comply because of fear, but it tires them out, and they don’t do their best work.
People long for release from the relentless pressure of fear.
Austin is a college town, and also obsessively compliant with masking and social distancing, because Austin jobs are compliance-jobs, in government, education and high-tech. Much was made of UT students coming back from spring break infected, as if they did not worry. What I have recently read is that levels of worry are very high in teens and twenty-somethings. What is also high is biological drives. That creates cognitive dissonance. When I heard there were COVID-sharing parties, I thought it was fake-news, but it appears that some college students did hang out with those recently diagnosed, and put money in a pot for the first diagnosed to claim. I’ve heard a young, pregnant coworker, very responsible and careful to comply, say that she would prefer to just catch it and be done with it. There was something like assent from her peers. We see it. Several of her peers are back to work after having had it.
It’s not so bad for most people, and we see the spectrum of illness personally.
My point is that the persistence of threat is deeply disturbing and emotionally exhausting.
This viral threat won’t fade much before next summer, I suspect.
People under chronic stress are beginning to seek relief valves.People and other animals under increased stress from threats tend to do the same things they usually do, but harder and faster. They don’t tend to do something completely different.
It’s just typical of animals, including us to double-down.
This is probably part of the extremes of political dogmatism we are seeing all around us. The Social Justice Warrior “left” has crossed over into a world where logic and reason are cast out as tools of white-supremacist-imperialism.
Discussing this rationally, or looking at history to see what the other options might look like, are expressly forbidden.
Overheated emotions, especially fear, without self-reflection and thoughtful analysis can grow into The Killing Fields, The Cultural Revolution, and the worst mass purges of Bolshevism, which all killed millions, and made monsters of the killers.
The power elites also get caught in the worst of these crises. They should be more careful, less smug, in feeding these kinds of little brushfires between social groups.
Please consider that the wave of fear may be slightly leading the wave of massive societal change, now underway, We have been debating this inevitable change in abstract since the early 1970s. It’s now happening without any regard to our assumptions, whatever they were. That’s scary.
Being afraid of little things which we can manage by becoming more devout in whatever belief system we espouse, is a form of denial of the fact of the huge and sweeping changes now underway, and uncontrolled. These changes will take whatever form we, ourselves create, though each of us has some minor input. Those of us who see what is happening, and act constructively today, or last year, might have a little more cumulative effect, and it might be good.
I think there is a special place in Heck for those who saw this coming since 2008 and built special bunkers in hidden places. I think they are creating their own, personal forms of heck.
They will be preyed upon by the special predators. Yuck! I can’t go there anymore.
Do wear masks in crowds, especially indoors, and do it casually. It’s some protection for everybody.
Don’t think things will be ok after the November election, or after there’s a COVID vaccine, or herd immunity.
Things won’t get better, ever. This is as good as it gets. None of us can get away.
I accept this new normal and do constructive work for those I love, and life on this planet.
Growing food is good. (Grow food that produces steadily and can’t easily be stolen all at once.)Global Capitalism is the main, hidden enemy and slave-owner these days. GloboCap is the unseen hand. Several people sent me this story. (“Know Yourself, and Know Your Enemy” to have a chance of prevailing in war.)
GloboCap can take anything you might “fight” for, turn it into your slave-chains, and teach you to muder the evil-other.
GloboCap Über AllesWayne Madsen: As the Covid-19 pandemic continues its deadly march around the world, a number of relatively dormant conflicts, as well as several well-known flash points, stand ready to place the world on the edge of a major armed conflict. History shows us that during times of stress – economic depression, religious strife, vacuums of political leadership, and public health crises like that which is now plaguing the world – the chances for war increase commensurately.
Pandemic and Hair Trigger Flash Points: an Explosive Situation
Sun Belt States Choose “Third Path” To Confront COVID-19 Without Destroying Economy
This is a modulated run at herd-immunity, with the modulating factor being hospital-overwhelm. Even this is hard to carry out in Texas, and the governor is under several lawsuits, personally, asserting that Greg Abbot broke the law by choosing to shut down certain businesses (bars, strip joints, massage, restaurants) and not others (grocery stores, churches, car repair). This might seem funny, but it’s not funny to Greg Abbot. He has made it clear that he will only take any steps to limit business when the hospitals come under stress. He has been true to his word, and more, and he still gets sued, for acting a month too late to shut bars again, and reduce stores to 50% occupancy again.
Additionally, Governor Abbot has been very clear that no penalty is to be enforced for failure to comply with his edicts, none. That’s smart, because when fines are brought against people who don’t wear masks, mask wearing decreases.
People are ornery. I certainly include myself.
People think more clearly if you don’t threaten them with violence for disobeying, if what you condone is logical.
Wearing masks in stores and restaurants, while coronavirus spreads, is logical, and supports the economy at as low a long term cost as possible.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/sun-belt-states-choose-third-path-confront-virus-without-destroying-economy
https://www.texastribune.org/2020/07/20/hidalgo-county-coronavirus-emergency-order-gov-greg-abbott/It’s hard on “last responders”. Nobody thinks about the humans who pick up all the bodies and deal with all the dead.Tough job. We should think about them.
https://www.texastribune.org/2020/07/21/texas-coronavirus-deaths-rio-grande-valley/My take is herd immunity (for some survivors), is all we have left to hope for.
Everyone is going to get covid – some people will live, some people will die.Actual Covid-19 case count could be 6 to 24 times higher than official estimates, CDC study shows
Actual Covid-19 case count could be 6 to 24 times higher than official estimates, CDC study shows
Experts estimate that 60% to 70% of people in a given area would need to be protected from the virus — either through recovering from an infection or vaccination — to reach herd immunity.Experts note that the inability of diagnostic testing to keep up with cases is not just limited to problems with the tests, which have included a botched rollout, overwhelmed labs, and supply shortages. It’s also that some 20% to 40% of Covid-19 infections are asymptomatic. Those people can still spread the virus, as can people who eventually develop symptoms but don’t feel sick yet — which has complicated efforts to rein in the spread.
“At present, the relationship between detectable antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 and protective immunity against future infection is not known,” the study’s authors wrote. “Extrapolating these estimates to make assumptions about population immunity should not be done until more is known about the correlations between the presence, titer, and duration of antibodies and protection against this novel, emerging disease.”
Raul, very good unpacking of (Kuppy’s?) essay. I struggled with that one. I kept thinking “I don’t like that, but he’s not…wrong.” Much he says is true or probably true, and apart from his comment about ‘just a bad flu’ he echoes much of my current thinking. Absent a treatment though, I still don’t want to catch this thing. I fear the co-morbidities and I fear giving it to elderly family and friends. As you’ve said more than once, there is much that we don’t know about this virus. Not ready to surrender yet.
Scott Adams pointed out that we’re only at halftime, it’s too early to call winners and losers in how leaders responded, too many variables at play. Team Sweden is way behind at halftime. Team New Zealand isolated early and is “winning” and bigly at that. But a lot can change in a sports metaphor. I’m skeptical of Sweden’s approach, but at the same time it’s pointed out something crucial: people will self-quarantine on their own, particularly if they are vulnerable, and they are provided with reasonably sound information.
We don’t get reasonably sound information in the US. We get ‘masks are useless, masks are for HCP’s, masks are required and we’ll fine you for not wearing one!, HCQ is dangerous and ineffective! Why won’t you stubborn stupid people believe us?’ It is staggering to behold how inept and compromised and impotent our institutions are. 2020 pulled back the curtain. These institutions have probably been rotting for years, decades. But now I know, and I can’t go back. And worse: I can hardly relate to my fellow citizens and friends – who do still trust the institutions.
Scott Adams pointed out that we’re only at halftime
It will be interesting to see what happens over the second half of the year. Will the percentage of severe cases increase as the weather gets colder, Vitamin D levels drop, and people go through seasonal hormonal changes? Many were predicting this would die out in the summer months, and then come back in the fall. They were half right. The number of cases has increased, but the severity of the disease has tapered off. Will that reverse? We should know by the time we reach the winter solstice.
How can we be sure of herd immunity if this is a disease you can catch a second or third time? Will the second or third infection be more severe than the first? Or milder? Or will it just attack different organs and have a different progression every time? Can a young healthy person who had no trouble fighting it off in season one expect the same outcome in season two? I would like to see more data.
Meanwhile, we have learned a lot over the last six months. Protocols have improved and will continue to improve. We have all had a chance to boost our immune systems to get ready for this. I am not as worried about it as I was in February. But I still do not want to catch it, and I do not want my family members to catch it.
I think it was inevitable that the US would surrender. It was never equipped to fight, and never had the will to fight. A proper resistance requires getting everyone on the same page — something that just ain’t gonna happen in the US.
My hope lies in getting experience in treating the covid virus. That will come with time.
But, it will also take a competent healthcare system; which the U.S. (and many other countries) lacks in totality.
The healthcare here is stellar; no deaths for more than 2 months. While there have been no transmissions internally (almost 2 months), there are new cases from returning citizens. These have all been caught, quarantined, and treated.
The single greatest enemy is fear, not the virus…More Than Half Of All COVID19 Patients Found To Have Damaged Hearts
A scary article, but it’s misleading. It’s not “more than half of all COVID19 patients”, it’s actually more than half (55%) of the subset of hospitalized COVID19 patients who had suspected heart complications that justified a heart scan. 55% of these heart scans showed abnormalities in heart function, but only a portion of the hospitalized COVID19 patients got a heart scan.
The researchers point out several limitations to their study given its observational design. During the pandemic the number of scans being carried out would have been carefully balanced with the risk of exposing staff, patients and equipment to the virus. Patients who received the scans were in hospital and had suspected heart complications, usually because they had abnormal blood markers reflecting heart damage. This study does not tell us how common heart changes are in people who did not receive a scan.
Viruses have been around as long as life has been able to replicate. The coronavirus pandemic is nothing new. Novel viruses jump into humans periodically. With 7.8 billion people and humans and wildlife intermingling, pandemics are inevitable. The question is who dies early and how many. American Elite have gambled that the jackpot vaccine will halt the epidemic by next year and Americans will not restore old proven means to fight the pandemic; democracy and a national free public health system. The rich and professionals simply don’t want to pay for it and lose their exploitative credit card healthcare system. The illness and death of little people don’t matter in the current economic system. The lockdowns were only implemented in the West once intensive care units were overwhelmed in Italy, Spain and New York. Way too late.
If there is no vaccine nor prophylactic treatment, suggestions like Kruppy’s that communities throw up their hands and die is highly misleading and evil. The virus is infective at most for 21 days. It needs uninfected humans to propagate. Implementing a social system that isolates the infected from the uninfected must be instituted with universal quick daily testing, contact tracing and government run quarantine centers. This isn’t unknown. Asian and South Pacific nations successfully implemented it. It is just hard, costs lots of money and may become permanent. It puts life above profits. It also requires empathetic leaders who understand science and throwing the corrupt incompetent ones out.
@HerrWarner
“Team New Zealand isolated early and is “winning” and bigly at that.”
Team NZ ain’t winning.. we’ve locked ourselves in a deep, dark hole (along with Australia), with our fingers in our ears and no viable plan to emerge, repeating endlessly “we will not get the virus, we will not get the virus..” as if denial of reality were a strategy.On the positive news front, I heard yesterday from a law professor associated with the PlanB contrarian NZ scientists (who’ve proven almost entirely correct in hindsight) – they are in the NZ High Court next week with a judicial review around the legality of NZ’s lockdown, which pretzelled a law intended for quarantine of an individual or small affected population into a country-wide shutdown.
I’m almost certain the review will side with the government, as have similar UK and Irish legal actions, and tbh I don’t care about the outcome so much as it buoys me to witness a few individuals remaining true to their professions, ethics and sworn fealty (eg to uphold the law) and who are willing to challenge the herd in ways like this.
This is regardless of the efficacy or otherwise of lockdowns, just simply standing for the basic principle that a government must act within the law, and where it cannot that it must legislate (and allow the citizens input into that legislation) to change the law if necessary.
Pandemic planning has been around for years (decades perhaps). There were months elapsed between Covid emerging and lockdowns being enacted. There remains no excuse for the fact lockdowns were enacted fait accompli and without adequate debate.
Until more is known – this is the key.
Thank you again for such good thought provoking essay. My take on this is that the poor will continue to rot, and people will blow off steam in various ways. We will improvise. I , at almost 80, will shelter in place and do networking on zoom to help my local communities to weather the storm. Yes, through the bread riots and collapse, people will still work together to help each other. We will improvise and all the multitude of ways will be like seeds that grow if the soil is right for it.
This is the New Normal – through the uncertainty, disruptions, plague, we will still stop to say hello to a friend or loved one. It will Never Be The Same. The global crony capitalist system was stretched too thin, is too brittle, too full of the past, but now we need to look ahead. We need to celebrate the many ways into the future, because one of them may be our or our grandchildren’s path ahead. So, I water my veggies and hope there is no drought or fire ahead.
@VietnamVet
You’re suggestion a proportion, targeted response? Good grief.
How would the media continue it’s binary, tribal, dualistic narrative of good vs bad? Masks vs no masks? Lockdown vs no lockdown? killing vs rescuing? vaccine vs herd immunity? Sweden vs USA?
No, it’s much better that we keep things simple for the masses – chocolate or vanilla. TINA.
😉Good Zerohedge link here on the seen/measured vs the unseen/unmeasured: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/covid-panic-lesson-using-statistics-get-your-way-politics It coulda been written by our resident site contrarian..
Life is waiting: take a chance.
Or stay at home and drink some tea.
I am off to join the dance-
The world belongs to those like me.Indeed. Nice prose, thanks…
If I may; this comes to mind:
And if perchance,
You cannot dance,
Find a laugh.
Nothing’s so serious, even by half.
The Immortals will rejoice;
When they see that you know;
There’s always a choice…Great article Raul. Three week freeze and it is over. just that. Nova Scotia has almost got it whipped. Many still wearing masks me included. Unrelenting message here. Stay the blazes home. We are reopening but we listened and had far fewer free dumb fighters. The leadership understands that the future health care cost may warrant the present cost. Sweden is an example of people who are still cautious and cohesive. I think the states are lost as is Brazil. Too many people worried about themselves and not the greater good. there is more to life than money. The world has plenty of money to fix this. it just needs to be shared with EVERYONE. Supply everyone what they need for a three week freeze. just that. All vaccine research should be shared and posted to a public site on the web. No one company or country profits – the world does. It would already be over.
Challenging times and no easy way out. My two cents: if for the foreseeable future we are relying on such blunt tools as masks (of any kind) and lockdowns, then plant-based medicines should be on the table. People have been using plants as medicine around the globe for a very long time, much longer than modern pharmaceuticals. Unfortunately Western physicians in the conventional world have essentially zero training on plant based medicine, although I understand that there are some herbal studies currently being conducted on covid in Asia. The benefits of herbs are, at minimum, they do not rely on big corporations (in fact once big corps get their hands on a herb, they isolate and concentrate the key ingredients and promptly destroy their effectiveness). Plant based medicines are relatively easy for people to gain access to at low cost (or free if they grow their own). Here’s a link describing some key pathogen destroyers used in the west.
Because different plants grow in different climates, pathogen destroyers found in different parts of the world will vary.
There are also immune stimulating plants the world over (echinacea, astragalus, Cordyceps etc).
One additional challenge to plant based medicine is that big pharma has done a great smear job on plant based – because of the potential competition. Then there are poorly conducted studies showing the ineffectiveness of herbs ( when you look at the studies for example you find that they used the least medicinal part of the plant).‘The lockdown cannot mask this assault on human nature’:
“..The wearing of face masks on public transport may or may not be of epidemiological value. But that cannot be the whole story. We are not talking of an extra item of clothing. The face is a primary engine of social interaction, and to compel us to cover it up is an act of spiritual vandalism. In The Soul of the World, Roger Scruton argues that the face is metaphysically ambiguous. It is part of the body but also transcends it. Our smiles, frowns and other expressions remind us that we are not just bodies but also persons. That we are not just objects in the world, we are also perspectives on the world. The face, he suggests, allows us to relate to each other as subjects, as one “I” engaging with another “I”. The reason why wearing a face mask seems strange has nothing to do with it being a novelty. It is because it is unnatural, in the sense that it goes against our nature as persons..”
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