Debt Rattle April 19 2020
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Unknown A couple wearing smog masks, London 1953 • Did COVID19 Outbreak Start Months Earlier And Not In Wuhan? (RT) • New Wave Of Infections Th
[See the full post at: Debt Rattle April 19 2020]Unknown A couple wearing smog masks, London 1953
Wow; I’da swore that was yesterday; what a rush…67 years ago and counting…
Hang on; there is much more coming…
I have to add Ilargi; that’s quite a find; good on you…Covered Boston in yesterday’s comment. (and too much more) So everybody has it now? It’s over? And the death rate is 0.006%, still 4x the flu, but very low?
I look forward to comparing death rates at the end of the year, lockdown vs no. I think you’ll find the two are similar, with the caveat of destroying the nations’ economy. Would guess since they’re un-lockdowning now – also with no admitted testing or evidence – that I won’t get a victory lap that MORE people die in a lockdown. They didn’t push it quite far enough that food was completely shut off. Keep it in the big muddy where nothing can be proven.
“an alarming study by Chinese doctors in the medical journal, The Lancet.”
Did no one believe them because of the 100 fake papers The Lancet has printed up til now? Is it time to be embarrassed and examine near-constant failure yet? Nah, actually Taiwan told WHO way ahead, with evidence, and they rejected them.
“nine companies which sell 90 per cent of the food we buy”
Sure that sounds like Capitalism, free-market competition. Oh wait, I meant the OPPOSITE, where they use the government and the insider banks (but I repeat myself) to PREVENT all competition, and use instant-free money to run all non-insiders out of business. Socialism or Fascism take your pick, but again I repeat myself.
“It’s too early to know how coronavirus might reshape 21st-century society.”
Especially since unlike the Black Death, it didn’t kill anyone. You’re going to need a magnifying glass to see the event on the long-term population charts.
Actual Black Death, last event in France, killed 66.0% of the city. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Plague_of_Marseille Apparently we’ve killed 13,000 / 8.3M = 0.1% I would propose that the two events are somewhat dissimilar, and drawing correlations may be unwise.
I’d pick Fascism, coz that is what it feels like when you see absolutely zero triple bottom line accounting anywhere. We still haven’t gotten around to modelling how shitty our mental and physical health is as a result 9 companies being allowed to just strip mine resources, soil, labour, time, profit etc.
Yeah kinda feels like Fascim Dr. D.Astronomy Picture of the Day from NASA has an ENCHANTING Cassini flyby video of Saturn today.
Maybe The Virus will make people rethink “manned” space missions. Why send humans when, for a fraction of the price, you can have something like that video?
I didn’t think that Biden ad was devastating. I think it was typical DNC backward-looking finger-pointing.
The blame game is afoot, and I tremble when I think where it may lead.
As Caitlin Johnstone points out, the Democrats blames everything on Russia; the Republicans blames China. Biden has decided on both- bipartisan!
If the Democrats had a platform (or even a candidate- and I don’t mean HER), they could defeat Trump this year.coincidences, possible, probable
1. In my neck of the woods, women in retirement homes outnumber the men by a minimum of 5 to 1.
Since more men die from covid19 than women then there exist a problem that is greater than realized/admitted.2. I make an assumption that every year, the seniors, in care homes,always get “the flu shot”.
3. Children, (less than 20 yrs.), don’t usually get “the flu shot”
I don’t expect to see a study that would hint that “the flu shot” makes seniors get and die from covid-19
I believe I described myself as ‘open-minded’ yesterday. I wonder if the following is an example of said ‘open-mindedness’, an aspect of myself that often functions like, and is mistaken for, naivete.
It’s not *quite* naivete. To be naive requires one not be aware that one is naive. Rather like insanity. Insanity isn’t so much differing from normal or normative cognition or behaviors. Those aspects can place one in a psych ward, sure. A different kind of jail, a place for sequestering people who, on the streets, too much disturb our sense of safety and vehicular traffic flow.
What makes nuts nuts, and naivete naive, is not being able to distinguish one’s nuttiness/naivete from one’s normalcy/wisdom.
So trust me, I know it sounds both nutty and naive when I say that maybe what’s horribly wrong with Russia’s cov19 #s is that it is perhaps the one nation in town getting a reasonably accurate count of its infected populace?
A mind that open needs regular sweeping out during quiet weather, and has to batten down the hatches awhile during rough weather. Doing so allows it to propose ‘obviously idiotic’ questions like ‘Maybe Russia’s problem is that they’re doing government/healthcare’s most critically important job at this stage of the game right?’
In support of this crazy notion, and fessin’ up front I’m a bit of a Russophile, being someone who does not conflate with the large historic arc that is Russia with its 20th century tangle with utopian politics and the bitter painful obscene mess this made (predictable in hindisght, how most of our predictions work outside functional physics), I now close this equally tangled sentence and cite this link. .
And this link: As of April 18, 2020, approximately 1.95 million tests for coronavirus (COVID-19) were conducted in Russia
Other headlines today include this corker: “Contamination at (USA) CDC lab delayed rollout of coronavirus tests (today’s WaPo, no link, fuck them)
And this: google search results for USA faulty covid-19 tests
Compare that with this: google search results for Russia faulty covid-19 tests
My naive logic is that to assume Russia’s spike in reported cases is the result of them doing something very wrong conflicts with the logic bemoaning the lack of accurate testing and how that leads to under-reportage and greater inflation.
While Russophobic antagonism is prevalent in just about any Western Empire reportage of Russia, this paragraph from: Russia’s growing coronavirus outbreak and its challenge to Vladimir Putin, explained is presumably technically accurate?“Covid-19 tests had to be conducted with a locally made device many viewed as faulty. All completed tests had to be sent to a single lab in Siberia for results, causing a massive backlog at the facility. This allowed Russians to continue living their normal lives without knowing if they carried the disease or not, and blinded the Kremlin from tracking the spread.”
However, the links cited bear only partial relation to its claims.
The article containing the above-cited paragraph has links for the words ‘locally made device’ ‘single lab in Siberia’ and ‘massive backlog’.
‘Locally made device’ The new coronavirus is finally slamming Russia. Is the country ready? mentions no complaints to corroborate ‘many viewed as faulty’.
‘single lab in Siberia’ mentions that “Swabs initially had to be shipped to Siberia for analysis at the State Research Center of Virology and Biotechnology VECTOR. Russia’s Federal Service for the Oversight of Consumer Protection and Welfare (Rospotrebnadzor)—the country’s analog of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention—has just expanded testing to its regional laboratories and the Anti-Plague Research Institute.” (article dated march 26)
‘massive backlog’ went ‘pay-or-die’ dark on me before I could steal any of its obviously anti-Russian slanted info, but it’s from Foreign {Policy magazine, so I expect that it too doesn’t earn the claims made by the Vox article containing these links.
I suppose I could go on deconstructing this stuff. The links don’t even refer to what their hyper-linked words claim, and when they do, don’t substantiate the darkly negative emphasis of the article’s claims. Euromerican press unitedly despises and lies about Russia, and that’s about that. An example is The New Yorker from 3 weeks ago: “The fact that a certain regime is headed for a dead end in the long run doesn’t mean it may not have some advantages on the tactical level.” Melita Vujnovic, the W.H.O. representative in Moscow, recently told CNN, “Testing and identification of cases, tracing contacts, isolation—these are all measures that W.H.O. proposes and recommends, and they were in place all the time.” Whoa. Regarding this ubiquitous Russia-hating, I’ll quote some smart guy (Valery? Shaw?) who said (paraphrase alert): ‘When everyone knows a thing is so, it is almost certainly wrong.’ I think the word is canard. If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck it’s probably a hologram of a man in a duck suit?
Just for fun, here’s someone saying something reasonable about the inevitable flaws in Russia’s first covid-19 tests. Not inevitable because they’re Russian but inevitable because everyonre makes mistakes especially on their first attempts at a new thing. Here’s why the numbers don’t necessarily tell the real story of the COVID-19 pandemic (scroll down to “Faulty Russian Testing Tool?”)
Not that Russia isn’t in deep shit. The whole world is. But Putin-era Russia has earned my respect and even admiration for a) dealing with the world and itself as the imperfect flop-houses they are, and b) doing so with considerable honesty in terms of (CAPS alert) ACTUALLY ADDRESSING ISSUES AND WORKING TO RESOLVE THEM NOT SHOVE THEM UNDER THE RUG. It learned not to do that from both its USSR years and the crash years of the 90s. SO it may be that this nasty rise in reported infections in Russia is due to that rare thing: public officials and their corporate cohorts actually doing their job. Imperfectly, with the inevitable slowness that ALL bureaucratic responses entail, but nonetheless doing them rather than saying they are while doing the same old shmooze’n’snooze.
I invite skeptics to tear it apart.
“I don’t expect to see a study that would hint that “the flu shot” makes seniors get and die from covid-19”
A test revealiong/admitting just that would hardly be out of the ordinary. It is acknowledged that vaccines have risks and that those risks are greater with frail people like geriatrics and very young children. Some years the risk is greater than others just as some years the vaccine is more spopt-on in addressing anticipatewd mutations than others. Your efficacy/adverse side effects may vary, and this is a canonic tenet of vaccinology as I’ve encountered it.
Did a little bit of fact-checking.
From yesterday’s comments
Dr D: “This morning, a Boston shelter found 100% of residents had it with 0% symptoms.”From today’s comments
Dr D: “Covered Boston in yesterday’s comment. (and too much more) So everybody has it now? It’s over?”From the news article (linked above)
“The broad-scale testing took place at the shelter in Boston’s South End a week and a half ago because of a small cluster of cases there. Of the 397 people tested, 146 people tested positive. Not a single one had any symptoms.”100%, 37%, same difference?
The way I read the news, there was a cluster of cases in the neighborhood of the homeless shelter, so 397 people at the shelter were tested, and 37% tested positive. None of which were symptomatic. Perhaps the symptomatic were already removed from the homeless shelter population? Perhaps diseases spread quicker in a communal living situation like a homeless shelter?
Tried to edit my mess above but the dit function has decided to act up again.
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.johndayblog.com/2020/04/seething-with-virus.html
The global-powers-that-be need to do things on their terms, on their timetable, with their agenda.
An event, like Event 201 coronavirus pandemic, makes that controlled-financial-reset possible on a global scale.
I think history will have it otherwise.
The level of resource extraction to supply the elites and the current system is too high to sustain.
That is the core problem forcing reset.
We are seeing the failure of a complex system.
The higher levels of complexity, which allow global control, are the ones that cost the most compared to systemic benefit. They are clearly wasteful and destructive, when graded by measures of pollution, ecology, human cost vs human benefit, inefficient use of limited resources, and so on.
People’s minds do not stay still when their bodies sit still in their houses.
People’s minds devise new paths out, when their bodies are frozen in place.
Our minds are already squirmy like that.COVID-19 Is A Man-Made Virus: HIV-Discoverer Says “Could Only Have Been Created In A Lab”
GilmoreHealth.com’s Robert Miller writes that contrary to the narrative that is being pushed by the mainstream that the COVID 19 virus was the result of a natural mutation and that it was transmitted to humans from bats via pangolins, Dr Luc Montagnier the man who discovered the HIV virus back in 1983 disagrees and is saying that the virus was man made.
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/covid-19-man-made-virus-hiv-discoverer-says-could-only-have-been-created-labIf you look at the mutation-family graph, the first, and very longest jump, which would actually be far off the page, if proportional, is from bat to first human.
When questioned, the researcher says, “If I am pressed for an answer, I would say the original spread started more likely in southern China than in Wuhan.”
It’s not a question the study is designed to answer, but to not answer.
(The question of viral origin is answered by genetic sequence analysis: “LAB”.)
Covid-19 outbreak started months EARLIER and NOT in Wuhan, ongoing Cambridge study indicates
https://www.rt.com/news/486194-study-coronavirus-southern-china/Navy Reports Alarming ‘Stealth Transmission’ Rate: 60% Of Infected Carrier Crew Symptom-Free
This suggests the virus could be spreading more frequently by stealth mode in the broader population, with many more people than is known walking around walking around with the disease unawares.
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/navy-reports-alarming-stealth-transmission-rate-60-infected-carrier-crew-symptom-freeIf I needed to get in to the shelter I would say I felt fine.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is now “actively looking into” results from universal COVID-19 testing at a Boston homeless shelter.
The broad-scale testing took place at the Pine Street Inn homeless shelter in Boston’s South End a week and a half ago because of a small cluster of cases there.
Of the 397 people tested, 146 people tested positive. Not a single one had any symptoms.
https://www.wftv.com/news/trending/coronavirus-cdc-reviewing-stunning-universal-testing-results-boston-homeless-shelter/ZADQ45HCAZEVJAZA3OTCUR7M6M/ An analysis of the blood of some 3,300 people living in Santa Clara county in early April found that one in every 66 people had been infected with SARS-CoV-2. On the basis of that finding, the researchers estimate that between 48,000 and 82,000 of the county’s roughly 2 million inhabitants were infected with the virus at that time — numbers that contrast sharply with the official case count of some 1,000 people reported in early April …
News of the Santa Clara analysis follows preliminary results from a similar study in Germany, released on 9 April, that tested some 500 people in a village of more than 12,000 and found that one in seven had been infected with SARS-CoV-2. The German team also looked for active infections, using diagnostic tests based on the polymerase chain reaction, and when those figures were combined with those who had antibodies, estimate that the town’s overall infection rate was 15%...
The Santa Clara team estimated an IFR for the county of 0.1–0.2%, which would equate to about 100 deaths in 48,000-82,000 infections. As of 10 April, the county’s official death count was 50 people...
…But with that ratio of false positives to true cases, a large number of the positive cases reported in the study — 50 out of 3320 tests — could be false positives, says Marm Kilpatrick, an infectious disease researcher at the University of California Santa Cruz. [That would not change the overall meaning of the study.]
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01095-0Historical take on plagues: by Escobar. Snip, first:
With pervasive social distancing in place, the new border is each and everyone’s skin. Migrants and refugees were previously considered viruses, and only merited confinement and immobilization. But now these policies apply to whole populations. Detention centers – perpetual waiting rooms that abolish human rights and citizenship – are now detention centers inside one’s own home.
… enchilada:
The city in a time of plague
History teaches us that epidemics are more like revelatory moments than social transformersBest,
F.S.
Sandel poses a question in The New York Timely:
Are We All in This Together?
… again, a snip:
In a pandemic, this question arises most urgently as a question about health care: Should medical care be accessible to all, regardless of their ability to pay? The Trump administration decided that the federal government would pay for coronavirus treatment for the uninsured. Whether it will be possible to reconcile the moral logic of this policy with the notion that health coverage in ordinary times should be left to the market remains to be seen.
… link – I trust it opens free, … it did for me:
The pandemic has helpfully scrambled how we value everyone’s economic and social roles.
F.S.
“An event, like Event 201 coronavirus pandemic, makes that controlled-financial-reset possible on a global scale.I think history will have it otherwise.The level of resource extraction to supply the elites and the current system is too high to sustain. That is the core problem forcing reset.”
Nice work. John.
Everybody seems to be yearning for a return to normal (whatever that means) and I just can’t help but want to look them up close in the eye and ask, “Are you really SURE?”
Easiest way to make people gratefully accept miserable conditions is to give them a taste of worse.
Hi Figmund,
In response to the question “Are We All In This Together ?” we must first appreciate that it’s actually two questions : 1) are we all in this? and, 2) are we all together ?
Here are my answers:
Yes to #1, and apparently not to #2 (but it sure does have folks talking it over, don’t it ? . . . which is a good thing.)
D Benton Smith: the world blesses you. God smiles on your shadow. The stars wink your way.
Why? Because reading your remarks, I feel as if my work in this town is done, at least for awhile, and everyone can relax from the look of my text.
Dear Bos(s),
Aw, shucks. And thank you again. I am genuinely happy to accept your appreciation but I hope that doesn’t deter you from holding my feet to the fire when I need it, which is pretty much always.D Benton Smith – Yes to #1, and apparently not to #2 (but it sure does have folks talking it over, don’t it ? . . . which is a good thing.)
Agreed fully. Mind you, … #2 reminds me of lyrics content of Camp Grenada: … poison ivy, alligators, sissies, reading sessions, Malaria, Jeffery Hardy, man-eating bears in the woods, … RAIN, HAIL! “Take me home, oh Muddah, Faddah / Take me home, I hate Grenada” plead, …
… than it stopped raining, stopped hailing!
Best,
F.S.
The original research at Stanford concludes “a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April”. “As of Friday, it officially had recorded 1,833 cases and 69 deaths related to coronavirus.”
I calculate an infection fatality rate of 0.14%, assuming 48K infections. The CDC Flu fatality rate is 0.14% (61K/45M).
Once infected, the fatality outcome is not different between this CCP virus and the flu. It’s just our infection opportunity with the CCP Virus is so much greater.
And yes, because it’s more infectious, the hospitals might overflow. And yes, the symptoms are different, and deaths are ghastly, I expect the flu is not pretty, either.
Individual freedom, personal responsibility.
I think the proper response would have been to cancel very large public events, and reserved those places for patient overflow. Our Military reservists might be well utilized to staff those places, along with volunteers from the industry or the public (if trained in advance like we do with CPR).
No lock down, just short term travel bans while infection disparities are more than two orders of magnitude, then traveling resumes within one order of magnitude.
We shot ourselves in the foot. It’s time to lift the lock down. Now, before more damage is done.
IMHO
p.s. Extinction Events. Collapse perhaps, but tough for quick acting diseases to get to place like Pitcairn.What? I feel like I’m in a timehole. Correct me: I stand corrected. I had the same thought: is this something about the neighborhood or being out in the streets? Point was the same, so 37% already have it?
Dr Luc Montagnier. He’s a scientist. But we don’t believe scientists, we believe scientists. Therefore, he’s crazy. Until tomorrow, when we believe scientists. The scientist from the U.N., (weapons treaty) that said it’s engineered, not the scientist from the U.N. (WHO) that says it isn’t. Science! Believe me, it’s settled!
“will be possible to reconcile the moral logic?”
It’s always possible to do things in an emergency you couldn’t/wouldn’t do every day. Everybody understands that. One reason it, if it’s “special”, it doesn’t alter long-term behavior, like never exercising or working again.
My main problem is that we have absolutely no idea how serious this illness actually is.
The ‘confirmed’ cases seem to be almost exclusively those who need hospital treatment. Those who have symptoms that do not require hospital treatment are excluded. Also it does seem there are a large number of people who have no symptoms, the lowest estimate seems to be 30% but it could be twice that.
The use of antibody tests, like the Stanford study, should be replicated in all countries to check what the situation actually is. It may be the most sensible policy is for those with a high morbidity risk should self isolate but the rest of the economy should continue as normal.
The lockdown policy is massively damaging and should only be used if truly justified. It seems that warm weather is unlikely to slow down infections, nor does having the disease guarantee immunity, so i could be lockdown forever with current thinking.
My second problem is that there seems to be some effective cures based around hydroxychloroquine.
I have seen no evidence that these are being officially tried in any country! Considering the alternative can be death it does seem surprising.
Dear similarly afflicted,
When the math gets tough the tough get calculators.
I am forced to concede that Computer modeling has it’s place ( might I suggest a septic tank ?). Seriously, computer modeling is too easily manipulated to suit one’s wants and cannot be trusted when the stakes are this high ( too many conflicting wants).
Arithmetic, on the other hand, has stood the test of time and won’t try to change your mind about anything, only inform it.
So I ran the numbers the old fashioned way, using the murky (understatement) “Fog Of War” numbers being thrown hither and yon by indistinguishable saints and sinners since 6 weeks ago and now.
High ball, low ball, no balls at all. Run ’em all says I. (why not? all I’ve got is time these days)
Here is what the numbers said (ice blooded little sociopaths ):
Within all ranges of presently hypothesized numbers describing infection rate, lethality rate, doubling rate, proportion of non symptomatic carriers and effects of mitigation, the bottom line(s) was conclusive and stark.
If lock-downs (such as they were) had not been done, and the Wuhan virus ranged free, there would have resulted a minimum of one hundred million virtually simultaneous human deaths around the middle of May. Way more probably half a billion. Silent Spring indeed. There’s nothing to compare that to in human history. I’m unable to construct any scenario in which technological civilization continued. Anywhere.
Nuclear power plants and weapons require skilled maintenance ( i.e. a functional civilization) to avoid cataclysmic failure. There are 450 nuke plants and 4,000 bombs. How many failures equals an extinction level event ?
So, yeah, I’ld have to say that was a quite a bullet we just ducked.
Please keep these facts in mind when ragging on the totally weird combination of good guys/bad guys/whothehellknows guys who just prevented our extinction.
Nor the folks who nearly caused it in the first place.
ROast feet are considered a delicacy by some, DB SMith but I decline.
I’ll leave this because it’s way userful, imo.
Kimo: “The original research at Stanford concludes “a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April”. “As of Friday, it officially had recorded 1,833 cases and 69 deaths related to coronavirus.” I calculate an infection fatality rate of 0.14%, assuming 48K infections. The CDC Flu fatality rate is 0.14% (61K/45M). Once infected, the fatality outcome is not different between this CCP virus and the flu.“
That is a false equivalence. The Stanford numbers (48,000 to 81,000) include the asymptomatic (in a representative sample of the population), while the CDC data only includes the symptomatic. If the CDC included the asymptomatic cases, then the flu fatality rate would be less than 0.14%, possibly much less.
Here’s how the CDC’s 0.14% number can be calculated:
Estimated influenza disease burden — United States, 2017-2018 influenza season
A. Symptomatic Illnesses Estimate 44,802,629
B. Deaths Estimate 61,099
C. Case Fatality Rate = B/A = 0.14%From Table 1
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htmDBS:
If lock-downs (such as they were) had not been done, and the Wuhan virus ranged free, there would have resulted a minimum of one hundred million virtually simultaneous human deaths around the middle of May. Way more probably half a billion. Silent Spring indeed. There’s nothing to compare that to in human history. I’m unable to construct any scenario in which technological civilization continued. Anywhere.I hope you’re being facetious here. If not, you’re calculating as if transmission were simultaneous and instanteous. In which case, may I respectfully suggest you revert to your day job. As woeful as many of the predictive models have been in terms of accuracy, they do structure in a time-delayed rate of transmission.
Right , Bos(s)
He’s already on my short list of who’s worth listening to in fizzix. Here’s my rule : if they’re way smarter than me I’ll listen, if they are also right I will learn from them, and if . . . on top of all that . . . they ALSO poke the ‘closed club academy’ in the eye then they are worth listening to.
Doc Robinson
Genuine question – are there assumed to be no asymptomatic cases of seasonal flu? Or perhaps CDC does not calculate them as they asymptomatic cases have no material affect (ie no burden on healthcare systems etc)?
If seasonal flu can be asymptomatic then comparing case fatality rates (Covid vs seasonal flu) is an apples-to-oranges data comparison.anticlimactic: …it does seem there are a large number of people who have no symptoms, the lowest estimate seems to be 30% but it could be twice that.
30-60% asymptomatic? It seems to be a lot lower than that, for the general population. The results of the Stanford study (for Santa Clara County) concluded that “the population prevalence of COVID-19” ranged from 2.49% to 4.16%, including the asymptomatic.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1
Huskynut: “If seasonal flu can be asymptomatic then comparing case fatality rates (Covid vs seasonal flu) is an apples-to-oranges data comparison.”
Yes, seasonal flu can be asymptomatic.
Dr D: “so 37% already have it?”
Researchers looked at a homeless shelter within a COVID-19 hotspot in Boston, and came up with 37% of the population there having it (in the homeless shelter).
Researchers looked at Santa Clara County in California and came up with about 2% to 4% of the population there having it (in the entire county).
Meanwhile, today in NZ we trepiditiously anticipate the ascension of our Glorious Leader upon her elevated Pulpit of Pronouncement, to decree our ongoing State of Lockdown.
The NZ government’s official website (https://covid19.govt.nz) contains a few links to their health modelling but absolutely nothing around the economic modelling or concrete decision-making (as opposed to subjective “eliminate the virus”) hype.
The contrarian group Plan-B’s website by contrast (http://www.covidplanb.co.nz) is succinct and factual, making their argument and nothing more. (and it was put together with a tiny fraction of the resources available to the State).
Based solely on the quality of information and rational thinking, I’d far sooner have the latter group in charge of the decision making, regardless of the correctness of their argument.
Isn’t it interesting how lazy governments are, purely based on their monopoly over the levers of control.
Bosco:
Russia Russia Russia
Back then we were brain washed to be afraid of Russia.
Funny, after serving my 6 month sentance in a Siberian coal mine in 1983, seeing that they had guns but no butter, I left being no longer afraid of the Russian bear!
With all of the wall to wall news coverage of the coronavirus, nobody covers what it is like to get a milder case of the coronavirus, no requiring hospitalization, and the length of time it takes to recover.
That is a pretty big gapping hole!
The few comments I have seen suggest that recovery can be long and exhausting. Many face recoveries in months not weeks.
Recoveries consists of recurring bouts of illnesses that seem to come in waves. One minute you feel like you are recovering, only to then be hit by another wave. Exhaustion and lack of energy is commonly mentioned.
That would help explain the lagging recovery statics.
Doc Robinson,
Thank you for the correction, I confused illness with infection, overlooking asymptomatic flu. I speculate, between Covid19 and the Flu infection fatality rates are still within an order of magnitude. Regardless, the policy adjustments I proposed are sound for responsible adults, IMHO. They are considerable less constrictive for those at low death risk, and no contact with those of high risk. My Dad turned 100 this month, and he is locked down tight. It is his choice, and mine, in spite of the unhappy consequence of no in-person celebration.HuskyNut
The doubling rate automatically factors in a time consuming process of transmission . . . even if you can’t be sure how much time that transmission takes, or how transmission occurs. In the final analysis it doesn’t matter much. The things one needs to know are not that hard to identify or calculate. How fast is it doubling? How many people will eventually become infected? What percentage of of that number will die? How long will the process take? My numbers pencil out within specs, and I will keep my old job (even though I have retired first) because being right all the time is not just an annoying pastime , it’s lucrative.
By the way, the math error you’re making is very common because it’s so non-intuitive to non numberphiles. It’s described in formulas called Baye’s Theorem and boils down to this : in sequential calculations it is imperative that your operations begin with the true first statement in the series. In other words, make sure you’re starting at the real beginning with the correct values, which are frequently not at all obvious or intuitive.
All calculations done after the start of mitigation efforts must take the numerical effects of that mitigation into account (and remove those effects) before proceeding with the remaining series of calculations in order.
Humankind just felt the cold breath of extinction on its neck, so folks can be forgiven if they now choose to whistle past the open graveyard still awaiting them if they fuck up now. Your calculations, doubtlessly, are not factoring in how mitigation has changed, and will go on changing, all of the pertinent numbers. Therefore your algorithm returns to you garbage answers based on what did or might happen with some sort of mitigation already baked into the cake. My calculation reveals what happens if they don’t.
In conclusion : This virus is still perfectly capable of wiping us out should we fail to understand the fact that , with no mitigating actions against it , this virus simply DOES double every 4 to 5 days (mitigation slows it down, obviously) . And it kills a fuzzily estimated percentage of everyone it infects. What percentage is that ? Well, without state of the art medical treatment that death rate easily changes from a Chinese 2.3 % to an Italian 7.2% . No one has the guts to estimate what the % becomes with ZERO medical treatment. 10% ? More? I sure don’t want to find out.
In any case , even the silly optimist ONE percent comes to between 50 million and 500 million during a single 3-4 week long period starting 2 to 3 weeks after the last 2 doublings . Based on a world population of 7.5 billion relatively healthy souls, the final doubling would end in late April or early May, infecting 3 or 4 Billion people. A percentage of those billions all die in the same 2 week period 2 or 3 week later. No complex system survives such an event. It breaks. And that breakage has it’s own ‘knock-on’ domino sorts of lethal consequence like typhoid, cholera and nuclear pile meltdown from inadequately attended atomic fission reactors.
Show me a math geek who isn’t sweating bullets and I’ll show you a drug user.
I do not respond well to snark and non-logical strategies for “winning” arguments. No one wins arguments.
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