Debt Rattle Feb 6 2014: Remember “Uncharted Territory”?
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William Henry Jackson Eureka, Colorado 1899 Remember how at the start of the current crisis, 2007/8, “leaders” and policy makers would state on a regu
[See the full post at: Debt Rattle Feb 6 2014: Remember “Uncharted Territory”?]I will state the obvious: Readers should know that people like Mr. Faber aren’t really interested in changing the way things are done. Rather, they are jawboning (much like central banks) so they can clean up as market conditions change. Seems to me that from a TAE perspective what Mr. Faber thinks is irrelevant. We already have Stoneleigh to actually explain what’s going on.
My bet is, something like, the markets will come down 20-30% and the dollar will be devalued 30-50% and the reset will be complete. Even if it takes wads of free money for all, handed out by the National Guard.
We are not going back to Dow 780 as in 1980. We are not going back to a $1200 VW Bug as in 1960. 19 cent burgers and 5 cent cups of Joe aren’t in our future.
In prices, three steps forward, one step back is how the distributors of the green do things. And if they sense losing it, they will issue new currency (e-money?) in a fell swoop.
Oh, and though we might expect the Inquisition, do we expect gold at $32, Silver at $1, gas at 32 cents and minimum wage at $1.10? I don’t.
But, if Argentina is any example, 65% interest rates aren’t far fetched, even though they’re no bargain.
@ Ilargi
Your commentary is a beauty. Ramming speed: Spin, meet anti-spin. The gamma rays are killing me, but they’re warm too, and it’s cold outside.I’m sure Ilargi will agree in regard to central bank balance sheet expansion is that we are damned if they do and damned if they don’t. Like so many other things now both economic and environmental we are facing true dilemmas. The proper definition of dilemma is a choice between undesirable or even impossible alternatives. I think the definition in most peoples minds today is simply a hard choice. The choices are not hard here they are impossible or as an old US saying goes the choice between the devil and the deep blue sea.
Prichard’s comments are sort of hard to put in context. Is he saying or advocating for more central bank action? Since the article presents the balance sheet contraction as a mistake, I think. I douby he comes from an AE context.
In making the impossible choice I would choose taper but nobody in power who wants to stay there will. The results will be terrible, but sooner rather than later with another and bigger stab of printing and asset inflation or at least asset non severe deflation. I am certain the Fed will reverse course at some point and so will the ECB. I don’t think we are yet in a bear market. If we were then monster bear market rallies could be expected to coincide with central bank announcements of more printing. If the current snap back rally holds, above S&P 1740 say then we are in no mans land for awhile.
Black swans actually exist. Do a picture search. I saw them.
I have returned from a 15 day cruise into the “TWILIGHT ZONE”. There were aprox. 1,800 people. 95% were retired seniors. On this trip, I thought that “the guests” could afford and actually did paid for the 15 day excursion from their savings.
At times, I thought that I was on a post operation cruise. I mean, medical post operation.
Other times, it felt that it was like “THE LAST CHANCE CRUISE” before meeting with the grim reaper.
Then, for many, the workers were giving “care giver” service.
Zombies … the living dead …
Weird …
Grandmas in bikinis working on their suntans who couldn’t give a damn about getting cancer.Grandmas with bikini wax jobs and painted toe nails.
Everyone on the cruise was getting service that they do not receive in their every day life. It was service and treatment beyond their pay scales. It was their last chance to try to experience what they believe to be the lifestyle of those with more money than them.
Every one has some understanding of the financial meltdown and the causes. Every one is trying to avoid the truth.
The present operating system is on its dying leg. Its over. The changes are coming.I like the following reports.
The Mafia State of Mind
February 6, 2014
https://www.oftwominds.com/blogfeb14/mafia-mind2-14.htmlThe mafia state of mind is all about extracting wealth that could not be extracted without state enforcement, monopoly and covert systems of control and extortion.
When there is no other choice but submission, when voting for either party yields the same results, the mafia state of mind reigns supreme.
Once the mafia state of mind has seeped into every nook and cranny of the society and economy, it’s not even recognized as corruption: it’s simply the way the system works.Making a Killing Off the Tax Code
Top Ten Examples of Welfare for the Rich
by BILL QUIGLEY
JANUARY 14, 2014If you want to look at the welfare for the rich and corporations start with the federal Internal Revenue Code. That is the King James Bible of welfare for the rich and corporations. Special breaks in tax code is the reason there are thousands of lobbyists in the halls of Congress, hundreds of lobbyists around each state legislature and tens of thousands of tax lawyers all over the country.
Professor , I wish you were right but I don’t think you are. Well in some respects you are–yes prices won’t fall to ridiculous low prices. What will come out of this is anybody’s guess but I think it will be much different in form, lots of suffering and death. I started off this journey with much more optimism and hope about 13 years ago. The one thing I did not count on was the intrinsic nature of oil and how when cheap oil declines and is replaced with debt the societal structure breaks down. I was hoping for a stair step down.
Ted@ Rapier,
Fed members function more as Vaudeville stage managers than economists or analysts. Knowing when to deploy the dry ice “smoke”, lower the curtains, signal the orchestra, and cut the lights — all that stagecraft is what’s called for when applying for “governor” promotion status. And like a delusional stage hand climbing his way up the Great White Way, confusion and depression dominate when lucky timing collides with an awful performance. You can fool some of the people some of the ……..
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