The Big Lockdown


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    Max Ernst Inspired hill 1950   Hi, it’s me again, with more virus stories. I know you may think it’s enough now, but I do want to do this one. Ac
    [See the full post at: The Big Lockdown]

    V. Arnold

    Max Ernst Inspired hill 1950
    Wow, that’s quite a painting (oil on canvas); somewhat surreal…

    Thanks for keeping us updated on the ongoing health crisis.

    V. Arnold

    Basically, I’ve given up, totally, on news from 99% of the media; whether it’s print, broadcast, or the internet.
    It’s pretty much funneled me to TAE; how about that? 🙂
    We’re very close to the geographic center of this virus mess, which is not very encouraging, however, we’re keeping our powder dry, so to speak, and taking it all one day at a time…
    That said, I have zero faith in governments being effective in any meaningful way; here (especially) or anywhere else.
    Please keep the information coming; you’re a trusted source…

    Dave Note

    I think you’ve put your finger on the fulcrum of this event, the number don’t add up, dodgy or not, for this to be stabilized short of three months MINIMUM at which point China’s economy, and a large part of the world’s supply chain will lie in ruins. I heard someone make the analogy that 2019nCoV was actually attacking and exploiting a venerability in the global economy’s just-in-time immune/supply chain system.

    The global economic fiat reserve currency edifice is a colossally flawed mono-culture immune strategy and nCoV is drawing a bead on it like a Russian Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle.

    My gut intuition is twitching.

    The Global Clusterf*Ck is like a plate spinning spectacle


    Chris Martenson’s entry on Wikipedia as been removed:

    Coronavirus: The Media Says “Shoot The Messenger!”

    I find that really really amazing. And equally distressing. And equally disturbing.


    To quote Ilargi

    “The big lockdown has just begun. Because once you start it, you can’t go back until you can prove that everything is safe. And that will in all likelihood take a long time, months. When will absolutely everybody have faith that everything is safe? When nobody falls ill anymore, when nobody can infect other people anymore.”

    That is a hugely significant concept, thank you for it.

    From the moment this started I’ve been troubled by the fact that Xi and Co were willing to shut China down.

    I’ve sat in boardrooms and weighed existential business decisions and there is always somebody, a partner or fellow director, even in my small businesses who has had sufficient mental scope to ask that sort of question.

    There is no doubt in my mind that question was asked and considered as part of the giant shitstorm they were going to unleash by starting down the road to shuttering China.

    The only conclusion I can draw is that THEY KNEW even way back then WITHOUT ANY DOUBT that alternative was worse – and that thought is rather frightening.


    Almost forgot to post this screen dump from the free Flightradar24 app showing the usual jolly old air traffic floating about our skies this very morning.

    Hi Bosco, I can see you waving down there!

    They have a nice website too as many would be aware:


    Dave Note

    Max Keiser just said the corona virus isn’t a Black Swan, it’s Bat Soup!

    Doc Robinson

    Today the Lancet mentioned the use of nutrient supplements, and zinc (“safe, cheap, and readily available”).

    Specific drugs to treat 2019-nCoV will take several years to develop and evaluate. In the meantime, a range of existing host-directed therapies that have proven to be safe could potentially be repurposed to treat 2019-nCoV infection. Several marketed drugs with excellent safety profiles such as metformin, glitazones, fibrates, sartans, and atorvastin, as well as nutrient supplements and biologics could reduce immunopathology, boost immune responses, and prevent or curb ARDS. Zinc and other metal-containing formulations appear to have anti-viral activity, are safe, cheap, and readily available. These formulations could be used as adjuncts to monotherapy or as combinational therapies with cyclosporine, lopinavir–ritonavir, interferon beta‑1b, ribavirin, remdesivir, monoclonal antibodies, and anti-viral peptides targeting 2019-nCoV.11 Tocilizumab, a monoclonal antibody that targets the interleukin 6 receptor, has a good safety profile. Monoclonal and polyclonal antibodies to 2019-nCoV could be developed for post-exposure prophylaxis.


    Seems to me that it would be a lot easier to fudge the “infected” number than it would the “dead” number. I could easily see the infected number being 10, 20, even 50 times higher than reported but the dead number would be much harder to suppress. So maybe in the end the mortality rate 10 or 20 times less than we think today and this story just becomes the latest failed media driven apocalypse.


    There are 3 notions going round in my head that I’ve always marked as rather clever but it’s finally dawning on me they were not in fact prescient – they have been our really-truly-reality for quite some time now.

    Mr Kunstler:
    1. The Long Emergency
    2. This is exactly what you get in a culture where anything goes and nothing matters.

    Mr Carlin:
    3. It’s a Big Club, and You Ain’t in It.

    Apologies Ilargi your writing is filled with truisms as is Dmitri but my poor brain won’t summon them up.


    Dave Note

    When China’s Supply Chains Break, So Will The Delusion The US Economy Is Invulnerable


    Raul:. You have every right to doubt the official government figures. When it gets serious they have to lie!

    About modelling. I studied electrical engineering. We used mathematical models to predict how our electrical circuits would work. Then we would build the circuit and obtain real world results.

    Normally variations between calculated results and real results were small i.e. less than 10% and often less than 5%.

    The differences were mostly the result of electrical circuit component tolerances.

    The thing is, our models were constantly checked against real measureable results. This brings a measure of confidence in one’s modelling abilities.

    However, the same level of confidence can not be obtained when modelling intangible things!

    First there is nothing to measure! Then there is no way to measure intangibles!

    Thus there is no feedback mechanism to verify one’s model!

    Economic models are a case in point! Their dismal modelling is pie in the sky!

    Climate models are another example of terrible modelling that inspires little confidence!

    Now these medical scientists who tried modelling the coronavirus are very smart people! At least they admit their modelling is full of assumptions! Change almost any variable and you get dramatically different results!

    What I find alarming in their modelling is how changing certain assumptions doesn’t alter the outcome! That part of the model is really useful for us to know!

    That is why we need to remain wary of what our government is telling us!

    When it gets serious they have to lie to us!

    So all we are left with is watching what actions our governments are taking.

    They are quarantining people for 2 weeks for now.

    I think we will soon find out that 2 weeks of quarantining people is insufficient time to stop the spread of this virus!

    Another thing we are finding out is people need to be tested multiple times as often the first test is negative!


    Raul:. I know you will probably laugh, but you know the coronavirus is serious when the powers to be, besides lying to us, are busy knocking down the price of gold and trying to boost paper markets!

    Them there are serious actions!


    I think you can write what ever you want. We nearly lost the Debt rattle not so long ago. Just keep writing about what ever inspires you. But if I had my way it would be less US politics and more environmental shift and change which the virus most definitely falls under. The bigger the system the more interesting for me and lets face it the US is not that interesting.

    V. Arnold

    I’m with you right up to: But if I had my way it would be less US politics and more environmental shift and change which the virus most definitely falls under.
    I prefer: I think you can write what ever you want. We nearly lost the Debt rattle not so long ago. Just keep writing about what ever inspires you.

    Ilargi’s success is his unfettered writing; that which he’s inspired to write…

    Dave Note

    A case in point about climate modeling. Peter Wadhams studied Arctic ice for 40+ years by actually going to the arctic and measuring the ice, often from below in submarines. His actual data was not consulted by a lot of climate modellers because his actual data didn’t match their theoretical models. Especially ice volume. The modellers loved to fixate on surface extent and left out ice thickness. The official reports sighted by governments most often favored modellers over those in the field. The modellers insisted the errors were alway in actually measuring the ice, not their models.

    The Arctic Death Spiral Ice Volume Map×581.png


    Vaccine is not the way out of this. If you think that only big pharma will save us you will surely be disappointed. As a refresher: if you are dealing with a virus which mutates extremely quickly, the ability of a vaccine to treat it will be very limited because vaccines are one-track ponies. That is why every year when the flu vaccine gets rolled out vaccine makers have to guess what strain to focus on. If they guess wrong the vaccine is a miss. According to CDC the effectiveness of the flu vaccine has never been higher than 50 percent and recently has been as low as 20 percent.
    Herbal knowledge for health, as with indigenous knowledge for fire management in Australia, has much to teach us. In a situation as dire as this, contrary to what many may think, only alternative therapies will help (including the zinc someone mentioned plus silver but don’t forget a good dose of pressed garlic).


    “Hi Bosco, I can see you waving down there!”

    I dreamed I was in Eurafricasia, waving at the sky…


    A couple of questions

    1. Survival rate vs death rate
    2. Immunity vs re-infection

    I used to get the yearly flue. Yes, I know, it was a different flue every year. Did the old flue die out? Or was I immune to the old flue?
    Did having gotten those flue affect my immune system and made me less of a target for the new flues coming every year?

    This flue still has not reached the death toll of the regular flue. In la-la-land the annual death from the flue is said to be 10,000 per year ???
    The regular flue kills the old, weak, poor. just like the corona virus.
    I still don’t know anyone who died from the regular flue.

    Dr. D

    Agree: the U.S. is NOT that interesting. Media selection bias. The economy/environment is more meaningful than clown shows. …It’s just that I live with these clowns, so….

    For Kung-flu, without solid facts because everybody is lying with every breath like air, and because the data points don’t match, you can see me developing a model by trying new ideas. Luckily I don’t have to act on this information yet because I don’t know. Since action-item, I did solidly get 2 weeks of food to get boarded up in my house by the army, but the problem is more likely to be car parts…so the grid isn’t repaired…and the water purification plants are overused and overdue for parts…which don’t get fixed…and so on. No surprise, it’s a miracle any of it works even now, and it already didn’t in Flint. This is how you de-centralize. And how the centralization is fatally discredited, when it’s been ruining, impoverishing people, hasn’t worked correctly for 100 years, probably since it was built. Maybe this will make them notice for a change when the taps shut off.

    ..Long since collapsed for poor folks. That’s why they’re cranky.


    Boring as the impeachment circus can be, it’s a valuable canary in the coal mine.


    These numbers will be hard to lie about.

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