[Clueless Honky]

I am intrigued by Denninger’s suggestion that the 80% of folks that have some kind of natural immunity to Covid (as the Diamond Princess and the January paper in “Nature” paper) could come from previous exposure to a dramatically less harmful cold virus such as OC43, which could then be used to inoculate the population with.

@ Generic, and others:

I believe the points you make about England’s PHE data are important, but it should not get lost that this data does seem to be showing a clear trend over recent time.

https://cluelesshonky.blogspot.com/2021/09/lets-make-deal.html

In this post, I include a graph that clearly shows that trend. I also acknowledge that for most specific age brackets, that – at this point- the vaccines do still seem to show some kind of short-term benefit. How does that pan out in the future – nobody knows.

[Clueless Honky]

@ Doc Robinson.

“Your graph shows that a large majority of the deaths were vaccinated, the report shows it was the unvaccinated. What accounts for this difference?”

That’s a very good and very important question. Why is the data within the PHE “Vaccine Surveillance Report” so different from the data in the PHE “Variant Technical Briefings”? (PHE is Public Health England)
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1016465/Vaccine_surveillance_report_-_week_36.pdf
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201

I admittedly don’t know.

Earlier today, in the comment section of the Market Ticker- Cancelled https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?blog=Market-Ticker-Nad
I guessed that it may be caused by one or a combination of these two things:

1) The “Vaccine Reports” cover data from all variants, whereas the “Variant Briefings” cover only data from the Delta variant.

2) The “Vaccine Reports” cover all cumulative data from the last 36 weeks. The “Variant Briefing” data is also cumulative back to Feb 1st. But in my chart (and spreadsheet from which I derived the chart), I segregate out the most recent data-sets. So the percentages I display in my chart are specific to more recent, narrowly defined time periods.

As I said in my blog, “This is the crux of the problem: too much data these days fails to segregate the most recent data from past data…. So it fails to provide an accurate picture of change. “

If it is true as many of us suspect – that over time the vaccines shift from being a medical support to more and more of a medical liability – then we need to beware of so many cumulative data-sets that lump the new data in with the old, drowning out any potential new signal in the past noise.

Granted, if we are to do this, then we need to ensure that any trends that we spot truly continue over a period of new data-sets. This is what I attempted to do with my blog.

Once again, the blog post “The Mainstream Narrative is Putting Lives at Risk” is here: https://cluelesshonky.blogspot.com/2021/09/the-mainstream-narrative-is-putting.html

And the spreadsheet which I used to create the chart within that blog-post is here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AQgsHB6PBaw8-5g-eAKdhsurj9nEeIKp9YRhBrF18_Q/edit?usp=sharing

I created the spreadsheet to 1) segregate out the newer data-sets from the old, and 2) calculate percentages. Other than that, all information on the spreadsheet comes directly from the PHE Technical Briefings linked to at the top of this comment.

Thanks for reading.

[Clueless Honky]

@Boiling Frog

Check out the data from Public Health England’s (PHE) regularly released Technical Bulletins “SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern and Variants under Investigation”

Here is a spreadsheet I made of their data from technical bulletins #17, 19, 21, & 22.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AQgsHB6PBaw8-5g-eAKdhsurj9nEeIKp9YRhBrF18_Q/edit?usp=sharing

I used the spreadsheet to 1) segregate out new data from older cumulative data (to better see evolving signals) and 2) calculate percentages. Other than that, everything in the spreadsheet it is straight from the PHE Technical Bulletins.

I am attaching a chart here. I’m not sure it will go through the comments. If not, it can also be found at my blog post “The Mainstream Narrative is Putting Lives at Risk”:
https://cluelesshonky.blogspot.com/2021/09/the-mainstream-narrative-is-putting.html

[Clueless Honky]

Here’s a chart I’ve made from all of the emerging Public Health England Data:

In it, I’ve segregated out the the most recent data from the old data to better see the signal of the emerging trend.
This spreadsheet is the one I used to 1) segregate out the new data (by subtracting new PHE Technical Briefing cumulative data from previous Briefings’ data & 2) calculate percentages:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AQgsHB6PBaw8-5g-eAKdhsurj9nEeIKp9YRhBrF18_Q/edit?usp=sharing

Here’s the blog post, “The Mainstream Narrative is Putting Lives at Risk”, in which I talk further about this alarming trend:

https://cluelesshonky.blogspot.com/2021/09/the-mainstream-narrative-is-putting.html

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