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So, it is stated this is the worst economic crisis the world has ever seen, right? We all remember the wheelbarrows full of cash to buy a loaf of bread in Germany following WW1. So, what is in store for the US will exceed this? Am I understanding this correctly? This is the prediction being made by TAE? And, if so, how will this manifest itself, what does TAE envision? We all know no one has a crystal ball. So, it is understood time frame and magnitude can not be accurately predicted, but can you give us an idea as to what you envision? Thank you.
I agree with the premise that nothing will be done until things reach crisis levels. The solution will be heavy-handed government intervention. The solution eventually will be force fed. Populations will be greatly reduced to come in line with resource availability. It is inevitable. What sounds crazy today will be common place in the future. Forced sterilization, consumption and movement. There will be no tolerance for free speech and thought. We are already seeing hints of it today even in the US, a place once thought to be a beacon of hope, freedom and mobility.
Thank you for your response, Ilargi. I guess what I am asking, to be more specific, is, how should assets be allocated? I know you have said cash is king and I believe you also feel hard assets are more desirable as well, such as real estate. Realize I reside in the US. Nicole has said the dollar will fare much better than other currencies. As I said, I have not completed the DVD set yet. Is this information covered in the set?
This message or point has been made many times, and I agree with it. You cannot get out of a debt problem by amassing more debt. However, what I would really like to read more on is what will be the specific consequences of piling on more debt. Yes, things will collapse, economies will falter but what does this translate into for the everyday citizen? What can we expect to see happen? What will be the fallout of this kicking the can down the road when there is no more road? What, Ilargi and Stoneleigh, do you envision happening? I recently purchased the 4 DVD set and have listened to the first DVD. Will the answers be revealed in the later DVDs? Thanks.
This type of behavior has always been present. As the world becomes more populated the more times we will see this type of atrocity occur. It is like rats in a cage. When it gets to the point that there is not enough space to comfortably exist violence ensues. Societies who have the luxury of space can be tolerant of this kind of anomaly. But places like China, that don’t have such a luxury, exact quick and just punishment, no questions asked, no psychoanalysis used. A bad apple that needs to be removed so he doesn’t do it again. The US and much of western society is getting closer to this reality.
There is no question that all of the violence portrayed in film, video games and literature is a solid link to this type of expression but let’s be clear, this type of violence is random and happens in every culture. It is just a question of frequency and degree. Whatever you nurture you will get more of.
You say you are still waiting to hear how plummeting demand for crude can contribute in the short-term to rising prices. There was an interesting interview on Dylan Ratigan last night with Frederick Kaufman, who has a book that will be released in October called Bet The Farm. I have attached a link from an article he wrote in Harper’s in 2010. It explains how and why commodities have been steadily rising. Ever since Goldman Sachs started its Commodities Index Fund. So, yes, there is an explanation why oil and food and every other commodity you can think of have been rising seemingly inexplicably.
When do you think the US will be impacted the way Greece and Spain are today? You talk of structural changes taking place. Can you be more specific? What do you see unfolding and in what time frame? I realize one cannot be exact but can you give a ballpark estimate?
By no means do I believe we are moving toward a healthy economy, in the US or elsewhere around the world. However, stock markets have soared since the bottom in March of 2009, despite the fact that nothing has improved. It seems currency debasement is the only plausible explanation. I have watched Nicole’s presentation and it is very persuasive. What I find confusing, though, is the real value of things. She shows how values adjust relative to other groups as market conditions change. But it is not clear as to what that translates to in terms of holdings and especially timing. She, Ilargi and you could be spot on but if it happens when we are all deceased it will do us little good.
To Ashvin and/or Ilargi, could either or both of you respond to the idea that the stock market will continue to go higher and higher as the US dollar is debased. Just as in Zimbabwe, as the Zimbabwe dollar tanked the market soared. Certainly the US is not and never will be Zimbabwe, aren’t we seeing the same thing play out in the US and European stock markets? Some would say it is the same as putting your money in gold but the stock markets continue to soar even as gold stabilizes. I would love to hear your thoughts on this. Thank you.March 15, 2012 at 10:16 pm in reply to: Prediction is Very Hard, Especially About the Future #1716
Get real, Winston. I am tired of the anti-Semitic sling any time someone points out the obvious. Israel is as entrenched in US policy, both financial and foreign, as is possible. The author is stating the obvious. Rather than trying to stifle open dialogue, if you disagree with the content, go elsewhere.
All I know is I keep hearing gloom and doom as the markets race higher. Contrary to the constant claim of the banks being all but dead, they were way up yesterday. When does this gloom and doom scenario actually start to become reality?
What I cannot understand is the argument the worst is behind us. If this were the case, if The Fed had actually solved the problem and we are now moving forward, it would defy logic. Because if this were the case, if it was simply a matter of just printing massive amounts of money to get us out of a debt crisis, then there would be no real risk, previously or now. We just turn on the printing presses each time there is a financial crisis and our problems are solved. It is impossible to know what time frame it will take but it seems a given that there is still hell to pay. I just wish I could get a better understanding of how and more precisely when, this will play out.February 20, 2012 at 6:02 pm in reply to: Reminder: China is Still on the List of Things NOT "Priced In" #855
Ashvin, what I would love to see addressed is the unison by which all US stock markets are moving. Financial and energy indices are identical. How can this be? Virtually all of the charts look the same. Market movements seem to be completely technically driven, not fundamentally driven.