Ken Barrows
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The question is who will be the first region to declare independence AND refuse a Euro bailout/accept short term austerity/chaos.
“because bad news makes politicians and central bankers hand out the people’s money and checkbooks”
I need some clarification here. Isn’t it really the politicians who hand out the people’s money and checkbooks (i.e. borrow from the future)? Don’t the central banks succeed or fail on one criterion: inflation? If central banks cannot inflate successfully because deflation is too strong, then aren’t they just playing with themselves? And when the central banks fail, won’t the politicians who have borrowed from the future have to deal with the collapse of plummeting living standards?
If the TAE theory is correct, Draghi will fail to stop deflation. As long as he is successful, it’s a closed loop of buying bonds and asset “inflation” following. Higher food prices may be more due to weather than Draghi’s misinformed policy.
So I am thinking for the average person like me, what he does isn’t that important. Deflation will take hold–including stocks–once he fails, and I am up s**t creek without a paddle if I am not in cash, near cash, or hard assets.
Hey hey, ho ho, globalization has got to go! Unfortunately, for their own reasons, neither most liberals nor most conservatives can let that go.
Maybe we should ditch the idea of America as well as that of growth. I cannot see how more than a few percent of the population will abandon the desire for growth before TSHTF. Of course, The Automatic Earth realizes the need to relocalize. Most people won’t do it to any significant degree(I have to say I haven’t), but it’s still important to do… eventually.
The current financial bubble has one different aspect from earlier ones, i.e. the actions and words of central banks. One can make a good case that investors still react to what the CBs say and do. What will trigger a negative reaction (falling nominal stock prices) to CBs that stimulate? Hasn’t happened so far.
No disagreement on Mugabe. But, if memory serves, whites in Rhodesia declared independence from the UK in November 1965 (the month of my birth so I think I am correct). Zimbabwe because black ruled in 1980. My uncle worked as an agronomist there for a UK company until 1993.
Seems to me there was time for some whites and blacks to take leadership (like DeKlerk and Mandela) to transition to a Zimbabwe where skilled white farmers would help the country prosper. It’s a shame that didn’t happen.
As an attorney who files bankruptcies, I often wonder how many individuals cannot even get the fee to file (never mind attorneys’ fees). Of course, if their only source of income is Social Security, they probably don’t have a lot to worry about from creditors, unless they owe child support, student loans, or taxes.
The discussion of unconventional gas/oil seems to get more absurd to me. If the claims are right (just for argument’s sake), the carbon dioxide emissions will be the final nails in the coffin for civilization. To be a proponent of developing the unconventional resources fully, you have to believe unlimited CO2 emissions have no consequences. I’d like to hear someone state that view–I can always use a good laugh.
Just ask these folks why “trend is destiny.” 99 out of 100 won’t give you a coherent answer. 999 out of 1000 won’t point to any facts.
Being devil’s advocate here: I think it’s a bit too soon to say the next phase of the credit crunch has begun. After all, markets still rally on soothing words from the central banks. The problem will be when they don’t.
Absolutely beautiful. But unless the economy keeps growing ad infinitum (or ad nauseum), absolutely irrelevant.
The election of Mitt Romney will demonstrate that Americans, contrary to common belief, can be an ironic people.
What are the underlying assumptions about the possibility of growth (net of debt)? If one thinks (and I do), that this is history, then these old thinkers are indeed passe. All sorts of great ideas could emerge as to how to prosper in a non-growth world. If growth is only prevented by a lack of oil drilling, then the above mentioned thinkers will do.
But isn’t Mr. Mauldin just as deluded as Tim Geithner when he prattles on about growth? GDP/total credit market debt has been in recession for 40 years.
The Central Bank’s (Fed’s) power is not unlimited. The price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude will say when it’s over. It will be less than $147 per barrel.
MR166,
Why would white people centuries ago go to Africa if not for slaves? I mean, if Africa was such an awful part of the world, why leave your comfortable corner of the planet? You could have just increased your wealth and avoided danger. Oh, wait a minute…
Everyone doesn’t know they’re being ripped off by the banks. Homeowners tens of thousands of dollars underwater are fighting to stay in homes that may never have equity. They must believe housing prices will explode. (How do I know? I work as a consumer attorney. So it’s just anecdotal.)
If everyone underwater on his mortgage decided to leave the property, most banks in the U.S. would go belly up. Maybe the stress tests should include more assumptions.
I’d like an article detailing how the Fed’s policy is stealing from the taxpayer. Maybe it’s obvious and I am missing, but it seems the main way to ripoff the citizenry in central bank policy is inflation. Otherwise, it’s the US government borrowing from the future and monetary policy sopping up the bonds. Thanks, TAE. Logging on after reading for a couple of years.
