Forum Replies Created
Liberals redistributing? They got nothing compared to the Federal Reserve.
Are you familiar with the concept of net energy/EROEI? Sunlight is sunlight; fossil fuels are concentrated, ancient sunlight. The sun is abundant, for sure. But is it cheap? Not if you want to live in an industrial economy.
You’re right, the Democratic plan stinks. I also have Bernie and Tulsi at the top of my list. But, incompetent as the Dems are, I don’t want a Trump running a society that will be fighting over scraps. He is about the worst person you can imagine being at the helm in a contracting society.
In the end, the popular vote for D and R in 2020 won’t vary by more than 2-3%.
If I may, I want to provide a diversion from the popular meme that Trump is executing brilliant strategy with every move. Here’s a man who lost the popular vote by a couple of million in 2016 (if you dispute that, please don’t confuse voter registration fraud with voter fraud). To roll to an easy victory in 2020, he’d have to either increase turnout among the MAGA hat wearers or change a lot of people’s minds to his POV. The former is certainly possible, although the Evangelicals were already reliable in 2016. That latter, in my opinion, is nearly impossible. Maybe there are a silent cohort of 2016 Clinton voters who are getting on the Donny train, who knows?
One more thing. I am a definite “Republicans suck, Democrats suck” type of voter. But I think Orange Julius is a little bit much (ahem, racist) and will vote, with nose held, for whomever the Democrats put up next year. Think I am the only one?
You can laugh at this statement in November 2020: Trump won’t win any state that he didn’t win in 2016 (I think he won 30 of 51 jurisdictions that have electoral votes.). If unemployment–the official U3 rate–rises to 4.0%, he won’t win at all.
Most people, despite the scandals and the fierce rhetoric, don’t change their minds from election to election. One side will have a better turnout and will win. It’s that simple.
The problem is that no mainstream pundit has offered a way to prosper with debt growing more slowly (much less not at all) than income. Thus, there is no alternative to this nonsense because debt is a sine qua non of the system.
IMO, there are alternatives, left and right versions, but they all would involve fewer cars, fewer plane trips, etc. When everyone believes in infinite growth on a finite planet, being where we are is no surprise.
A return to low interest rates? The 10 year UST was 2.12% yesterday. But I know, lower short term rates will fix everything. The Fed keeps painting as it moves to the corner of the room.
If unemployment is 6% by October 2020 none of this will matter
In other news, DOJ says Russians hacked voting in all 50 states in 2016. If that’s true, the Russians have to be the stupidest people on the planet (it’s not true).
I’d also tell Trump that unemployment at 4% means you’re re-elected and increasing unemployment means you’re not. This never ceasing business will have little effect on your political future. So go after your enemies if you want.
(1) CO2 in 1965, the year I was born about 325 ppm. Today 410+ ppm and rising more quickly than it did 53 years ago.
(2) Nuclear is fine, but do remember that thorium is not fissile. Maybe the EROEI won’t be as good as you imagine.
Dr D, you may want to look at http://www.climatereanalyzer.org. 0.8 degrees C above the 1979-2000 average yesterday. Cherry picking does not become you.
This low inflation and globalization schtick is tiresome. Interest rates are low because modern industrial society cannot abide by higher interest rates. I will stop throwing in my two cents from the peanut gallery when the 10Y UST is above 3% for six months. I think I will be yapping for a long time Inflation and low interest rates can exist simultaneously for a long time. It’s called collapse.
I am a vegetarian and agree with John Day’s comments. You are describing a system, though, that cannot support 7.5 billion people. How many? Depends on your locality–what’s your bioregion? In the next world, we eat what we can, we need the calories. In the world where you eat from your bioregion, it will be difficult for people in most regions to be vegetarian, much less vegan.
To get to your system, don’t be too hard on the vegetarians. The industrial system is making your future cow-based one more difficult by the day. The ultimate human state may be hunter gatherer in bioregions throughout the world if the industrial system doesn’t destroy everything first. And when all is said and done, meat consumption per capita will probably be less for most developed countries’ inhabitants than it is today and there won’t be many vegetarians.
Not recently, reality
The machines do not pay for themselves. To preserve industrial civilization, interest rates cannot rise much. I will say it again: the 10Y UST cannot go over 3% for more than six months. Moreover, the interest rate needed will slowly decrease over time. Perhaps the markets will decide the rate should be lower than currently. And when that happens, the deflation predicted by TAE becomes recently. After that,, industrial civilization ends soon enough.
Perception is everything in politics, isn’t it? Maybe the GOP will exceed expectations because unemployment has gone from 4.9% to 3.7% since January 2017 and wages have risen about 0.5% in the same time period. Tax cuts provide good sugar highs. But for long term investment? Doubt it.
When I listen to Scott Adams, I get the sense that he’s just trying to be provocative.
Actually poverty rates came down in the USA rapidly in the 1960s. But then US peak oil and corporate globalization followed. Just a guess, but without public assistance, poverty rates would be much higher and there would be no proclaimed present boom.
I wouldn’t convict Kavanaugh in a criminal court. But that was one lousy interview. But for some he will save the babies and that’s all you need.
Where did this “neutral rate” come from anyway? If M1/M2//M3 are rising faster than GDP, then institutions are still lending. Let’s see if the 10 year UST goes over 3% today.
Infinite debt is okay if you have infinite net energy. Most people believe in both so we must be okay.
Dr D, I find you amusing on this one but indeed we’ll see. I think most people also believe infinite CO2 in the atmosphere is also possible and infinite acidification of the oceans is no sweat.
If you want to halt the perfidy of Google, Twitter, Facebook, etc., consider the obstacles. An advocate would have to get the SCOTUS to find that these companies are state actors. There is some precedent for that, but I bet you the current court would rule 8-1 or 9-0 that these companies are not state actors and, thus, the First Amendment does not apply. The security state’s tentacles are everywhere.
Why is one cubic km important? Would two be too much?
Just a few points,
“Welfare” may include a child receiving Social Security benefits for a deceased (or retired or disabled) parent. It is basically an insurance policy Social Security gives you. We could mandate getting your own damn insurance policy, true enough.
If you have Medicaid, the sky’s the limit potentially. If you want to be very sick, you will receive a lot of benefits, but it’s not really useful to count that in determining how the welfare recipient has it made. Now if a person gets Social Security Disability because she has a sufficient work record, she could pull down more than $1,500/month. If she lived alone, she wouldn’t get food stamps (SNAP). If she has a child or two, maybe. For kicks, check this out: http://gapmap.org/calculator/.
If she has been lazy all her life and doesn’t have a sufficient work record, she could apply for SSI. If she prevails on her claim, it’s $750 per month. But to get it, she cannot have more than $2000 in countable resources (including everything in the bank). Doesn’t qualify for SSI? TANF (for those with children) is even stingier.
There’s also subsidized housing. You get to pay 30% of your income for rent. In a large American city, that could save you $10,000/year or more.
The “up to $35,000” won’t apply to many, possibly the Reagan welfare queen driving around in a new Cadillac.
It is certainly true that without government subsidies having a child is prohibitively expensive. Maybe we should not give more to anyone who has a child. Of course, then we’d have to pay for an alternative. Or watch children suffer. Sterilizing people is another option.
It is understandably very painful to see your money go to the undeserving. But seems to be that some of these “welfare” articles are exaggerating to express that pain.
You think the B.S. is bad with McCain? Wait until Henry Kissinger dies.
Stocks are high and the 10 year is below 3%. It’s the best of all possible worlds! Dr. Pangloss would be proud.
I get it. You meant GDP, the most important measurement there is.
Iran is a lot bigger than Maryland in both area and population.
Jerome Powell’s Fed keeps tightening but the 10 year US Treasury doesn’t want to stay over 3%. Does anyone see a scenario in which it stays over that mark for the long term? I mean, the USA is already so prosperous that prosperity doesn’t do the trick.
I don’t mind austerity so much but it has to start at the top
Why do we need more trade? If 65% (pick a number) of the increased income goes to 1% and the world requires almost 100 million barrels of oil per day to move it around, we should argue for less trade.
I agree food independence is important. But why the ever increasing number of cars? You’d think the proponents of free trade believe in infinite growth on a finite planet.
Free trade provides benefit, though, for those at the top. The rest want to be there. No fun if you get there and cannot outsource all the unpleasant stuff for low wages.
If corporate globalization is leading the world to ruin but too many people are attached to it, a trade war seems the only way to shake things up.
And the 10 year UST remains below 3%. Here’s a speculation: it never goes over 3% for more than six months. It can’t if we want to maintain glorious growth.
In our modern world, austerity is for neither good times nor bad times. Once collapse occurs, austerity is forever.
For any country to be on top, it will still have to increase debt faster than income. I don’t know how long that will last–perhaps decades–but in the end the industrial way of live will go. The “United States” and “China” won’t matter to anyone.
Well written piece. But everybody, and I do mean everybody, Democrat or Republican, believes in infinite growth on a finite planet. If you don’t believe in that nonsense, politics is probably not for you.
News flash: the 10 year US Treasury isn’t going above 3% for more than six months. The American economy cannot handle it. Similar for the G-20, if not lower. Let us call it semi-collapse.
That might work, except the biggest beneficiaries of said tax cut just want to buy back stock. We will know soon enough.
So why have taxes at all? All borrowing, all of the time. A lot is written about MMT but little about its assumptions. Its proponents advocate for the average Joe/Jane but take us to the same resource deprived world.