p01
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No comments, except: see my signature.
The coming new pharaohs and their gestapo forces will be far too busy fighting real megaphones stirring real crowds in the streets and also busy dodging knifes on dark Palace corridors. Besides, does it strike you as TAE’s message has been taken seriously thus far? Ilargi certainly does not seem to think so:
“The world at large may not yet be ready to embrace the entire picture we have been painting at The Automatic Earth, and that would perhaps be too much to expect given that our picture is substantially different from the one offered by the vast majority of “opinion makers”, but step by step we do seem to be getting through.”That is not to say that the future pharaohs, once firmly established, might not include (in some temperate climate, certainly not in Canada -pharaohs and cold climate don’t mix very well, apparently, except in Siberia) some more extreme and lower EROEI forms of keeping the industrial dream alive: scapegoating and loss of property and/or debt slavery, but that is in the “modestly interesting future” as Ilargi wisely put it in a previous post, and we’d have to make it to that future first.
Having lived through a HI, I can attest that it is a loss of confidence in the currency. People were flocking into a foreign currency at any cost, and everyone was obsessed with converting the local currency into a foreign currency. The foreign currency was used as a secondary currency.
Bonus karma points to the commenter who guesses what the foreign currency was (this is not a trick question, BTW). Extra bonus points to anyone guesses what the currency of choice will be this time around, when HI hits the peripheral countries and the euro implodes into nothingness.Vic financial group collapses owing $660m
Nervous investors, including farmers and workers in regional Victoria, will have to wait to find out what will happen to the hundreds of millions of dollars that are tied up in the company’s collapse.
This is what TAE was talking about, but on a really large scale.
Professorlocknload post=5853 wrote:
For me, down on this side of the skids, it’s get out of any debt first. Then, accumulate at least enough cash to run off to somewhere like Datil, NM and air out for a year, if necessary. Don’t fret, one can live damned cheaply out there. And sleep well! 7-10k should do it, along with a fishing rod, couple pounds of salt pork and a cheap bolt action 22, as grub stake. And wow, with no phone and no net, reflection comes easily. (Best Pie in the West, right up the road there, in Pie Town. Really! https://www.pie-o-neer.com/) And they have a phone!Now that`s more like it, Professor! I like the way you think! Hold the pie for an even better sleep.
davefairtex post=5822 wrote: p01 –
The stopped clock phenomenon: “Even a stopped clock is right – twice per day.”
This refers to someone repeatedly making the same prediction, just like a stopped clock always says it’s 3pm. Wait long enough, and 3pm will in fact recur, and the clock will be correct. In the case of a market crash, if you predict one often enough, for long enough, you will be right because given enough time, the market will indeed crash.
So the timeline here, for the stopped clock phenomenon is … 12 hours (half the duration of the day), which is pretty long, wouldn’t you say? It’s not exactly rocket science to see that 3 years is invisible on this type of timeline (half the duration of the market’s life?). I’m just trying to integrate the ignored timeline here, and to see why a green-slime, non-respectable-trading lesser being would care about that in the timeline that we’re talking about.
Can somebody explain to us lesser beings the stopped clock phenomenon and its relationship to the (ignored or not) timeframe?
Thanks.Golden Oxen post=5811 wrote:
Where oh where does a sane man hide in a world gone mad with debt, lawlessness, devious and corrupt financial institutions, and tyrannical governments????Do you personally know the sane man, or are you asking hypothetically?
@jal
I haven’t laughed so hard in a while. It got really confusing towards the end, with Greece and hyperinflation in the US, but it was epic. Good one! I wish I has some karma to give you.
Stabilizing Ponzi…my jaws hurt. 😆“And I have often said that the deleveraging will be so severe that what may come after is only moderately interesting, since you won’t hardly recognize your world once deflation has run its course.”
I’d expand that to: you will hardly recognize yourself once deflation has started in its earnest, let alone run its course.
Short selling has a 110.001% chance to be banned the femtosecond following a market’s croak. We’re talking TEOTWAWKI this time, not 2008. Nationalizations, expropriations, martial law, and all the fun stuff. Good luck with the plan, though.
TheTrivium4TW post=5675 wrote:
History has no relevance?
Yes, it does. Slavery and serfdom is what all recorded (less than 1% of Man’s existence on the planet) history was all about, and it’s guaranteed to repeat again (the other possible outcome is, of course, nuclear winter). However, you are obsessed with effects and somehow have a very distorted view of the “Good Ole Past”, when the Moral-estests of bearded (and sometimes not so bearded) Men walked the Earth (it’s a cargo cultist type of thing that many of us are somehow drawn into: some worship Atlantis, others Greece, Rome, the 50’s, the 60’s, the Founding Father’s Era, or other romanticized versions of the Great Past). Everybody agrees there’s a criminal clique up there. The problem is not the clique, it’s the amount of power they have, and that is built into civilization by definition. But if you acknowledged the cause, there won’t be much to ramble about, would it? The cause it the Ultimate Conversation Stopper. Ever. And it’s irreversible.
I see the Builders are starting to get overanxious as they enter overtime and as their timeline starts overlapping that of the delayed slaves. The quotes remain the same, though, from dead dudes who lived when the foundations of the pyramid were just being laid, and have zero relevance whatsoever. Now, let’s invoke that free market unicorn again. :whistle:
In related news, the EU gets the Nobel Literature Prize for the most absurd screenplay ever to be written. Crowds are delirious in the theatre, throwing their hats in the air.
Next up: Nobel Peace Prize. Nothing would surprise me at this point anymore. Oh, wait…If you want to build pyramids, you need slaves. Debt has enabled the slaves to live at a later time than the builders and the pharaohs. In the case of voluntary pyramid building by comrades full of life and revolutionary spirit, the buck stopped when the money and revolutionary spirit ended (pretty soon).
That’s basically it in a nutshell, and without fancy animations.Karl Marx recognized that workers without a choice are workers in chains. But his idea of breaking chains was for us to depose the pharaohs and then build the pyramids for ourselves, as if building pyramids is something we just can’t stop doing, we love it so much.
–Daniel Quinn
Regarding Socialism and the beloved elusive Capitalism
Both these unicorns have been summoned by the (opposing) Churches of the Industrial Civilization. BOTH invocations have failed to produce the requested flavour of unicorns, or any unicorns for that matter. The excuse of BOTH Opposing Churches has been that the invocations were misspelled, not that the unicorns do not exist. Unicorns must exist, say the high priests; we must believe in magic, keep trying to invoke them, maybe something shows up. And something will indeed show up, just watch this horror movie to the end.
This frog has been boiling for a long time. It tried jumping off the pot in the 60s and 70s, but it was most likely an involuntary spasm, not a real attempt to escape. It is now dead.
Professorlocknload post=5564 wrote: @p01 “..we would have been living in a depression since the mid 70s. “
Or would we have been living within our means?
Like we used to?
Like we will again learn to do…soon.
Just for the record: I was born in a depression (it actually started when I was about 6 years of age), and lived in it up until 30 years of age. Consequence of my country’s oil peak and repayment of debt (we were the suckers who paid it back).
It’s not very cozy, and I don’t see many learning to do it. It was also very mild compared to the multiple implosions coming up.Professorlocknload post=5562 wrote: […] Had the dollar remained real, ie; backed by these commodities…
…we would have been living in a depression since the mid 70s.
Short of breaking the windows, there’s the option of shining a green laser in the cockpit. WWMR do? Popcorn on.
GOod grief!
For the last time: Only banks can issue debt (what we call money) that comes with interest attached. Nobody can inflate his/her income because nobody can generate his/her money, it HAS to come from a bank (central or otherwise) by means of a loan taken by someone else (employer or government). Those someonelses up the food-chain are either going belly up, cannot, or simply will not take anymore debt.
It’s a colossal Ponzi that will implode, not explode. How hard is that to figure out?Back to the topic at hand, because obviously people who think the Fed can do anything about this clusterfuck have always had a pretty big trickle from the credit urethra, the crisis is going to be solved; like this:
Just to get some statistics clear, especially since it has been requested that income minus spending is oh, so important, and probably balance sheet is the most important:
Average American family savings account balance: $3,800;So much for urban legends of western millionaires by the 5% truck-load, eh?
Now imagine a plunge in asset values….ilargi post=5472 wrote: I come here, to get the “deflationary take” on things. I figure between TAE, Mish, and Martenson we’ll get effectively complete coverage on what is really going down.
What, Martenson has done a 180? Whaddaya know?
Nah, the Ph.D./MBA burden still outweighs common sense, there’s no escape from that.
Nassim post=5464 wrote: we pay to bury dead people
This reminded me that during the Victorian era, millions of corpses of India’s poor were imported to the UK – by the shipload – for use as fertilizer.
Considering that agriculture isn’t going anywhere anytime soon, because everybody wants civilization to last in one form or another, I smell great opportunities in this venue. Smart money must be pouring in… :whistle: past the graveyard…
ilargi post=5454 wrote: Sir, I would just like to point out that Mr Dalio is strongly recommending the purchase of gold. He claims it is a must to own.
If you’re as rich as he is, you can’t go wrong with that advice.
If you’re not, he thinks your purchases will raise the value of his holdings.
😆
How do you still find the patience, Ilargi?Viscount St. Albans post=5407 wrote:
I live in Silicon Valley, arguably one of the most expensive areas in the United States, and my household (consisting of 2 people, myself included) spends about $55,000/year.I usually comment on the less than one percenters (globally you are < 1%) except very briefly and with a lot of cynicism as to their delusion of being special, but:
If you know the predicament, have the financial means, and probably the right age, why are you still not on your homestead?
Stoneleigh always said if you can afford it, get a head start, so I really don’t understand your confusion in this matter.
Or you probably will be the one to help others in the community, that must be it.Viscount St. Albans post=5404 wrote:
Eventually, I suspect that lingering tensions between Hungary and Romania will re-emerge. Northwestern Romania (~ Transylvania as defined by the Carpathian Mountains) has significant Hungarian ethnic, and cultural ties.I used to think the same, however reading more about the whole doo-doo that Eastern Europe is in up to the eyebrows, I now think tensions will be merely in local communities, where they always were dealt with one way or another without much fuss. The centre can’t hold in either country enough for a civilized full scale pogrom, cleansing, and war although the potential is certainly there.
If anyone wants a more vivid B&W picture of how (only Eastern?) Europe will look like, I recommend Bela Tarr’s Satantango movie, a hard to watch, but IMHO very optimistic POV view; available in some of the more obscure places of the Internet, of course, for those so inclined.The obvious conclusion is that there’s something very wrong with the industrial thingy, and all credit related nuances are simply consequences of that paradigm, as Steve from Virginia never fails to pinpoint on his blog.
buddha post=5337 wrote: Bernanke says he is going to create money ad infinitum. So where are the Bond Vigilantes who are supposed to curtail the printing? They must have been chewed up in Ben’s propellers as he drove right over them.
That’s a very interesting question. It implies that the garden gnome is really the top alpha male of the planetary pyramid, which I think quite unlikely. I think it’s the paradigm that drives the whole ponzi scheme at this moment, and even those who sit on top of the gnome’s pointy hat are powerless to make any move against the paradigm, or it will crumble. Everyone, from this 99.99%-er to the MOTUs, is pretty much paralyzed at the moment, waiting for the trigger, whichever that might be.
On loans to sovereigns:
Only 2 countries ever paid back their debts: Finland in the 30s, and Romania in the 80s. In the second one it sucked massively for the masses, and ended pretty freaking badly, as expected, although it did not as end bad as I expect in many, many other, “we’re different and oh, so special” places.Barak post=5317 wrote:
1) the Canadian housing situation
2) what she means when she refers to “multiple claims to underlying real wealth” (an example or illustration would be great.)Tune in to Max Keiser, as they say (I think the pie analogy is in this video, also):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9F7hljAWWOQ
Or it’s in this one?:
carolsiriusb post=5299 wrote: Alpha Centaurians??
You’re right, they’re called alphas in nature, but in human pyramidal constructs the economists, lawyers, legendary investors might as well be called alpha centaurians. Other names have been tentatively given, but mentioning those names would be stretching it a bit. I have a feeling of being on the verge of a ban for only mentioning this, and if Ash has found a new path to pursue, it might actually be enjoyable for me not to be banned and comment here from time to time.
@carolsiriusb
This is but a small part of the collapse, like it or not. I’m an atheist, and would not sell my soul to any G-d as long as my life does not depend on doing so, but I’m also realistic in knowing that religion might be the only thing keeping communities together. I truly hope the devolution stops were I live before the “deranged chanting in the hills”, but this is the way it will be, I have no doubt about it. Want to blame something? Blame civilization, the spawn of agriculture, because religion, its method of control, is here to stay.One thing I know for sure is that religion will retake the place of economics, finance and law. There are a lot of future prospects right there.
Before I get a rapid excommunication to the Bowels of Hell from which I spawned, I should say that the knife reference was a joke and Ash will surely get it. If other members don’t get it, GO ahead with the exorcisms! 👿
Wow. Just. Wow.
On a lighter note (I just had to make an account to say this): [strike]If[/strike] when there will be chanting in the hills, I prefer Ash does the sacrifices, for he can’t sharpen a knife worth a damn. 😛
Lighten up, dudes, it hasn’t started yet. We still have a few …maybe weeks? What will you do then?
