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  • in reply to: You Thought The Saudis Were Kidding? #17798


    Ilargi, both the WSJ and Zero Hedge badly botched the reporting on the 3rd quarter GDP revisions, and then Yves quoted what you wrote here and spread the damage…

    real health care outlays were a tenth of 3rd quarter GDP and less than half of the upward revision….they actually increased at a real rate of 4.6%, so health care was actually a small drag on the overall quarterly increase…

    here’s my breakdown of PCE, with the links showing my math:

    <p>real personal consumption expenditures, the largest component of GDP, were revised to show growth at a 3.2% annual rate rather than the 2.2% growth rate reported last month, and hence they contributed 2.21% to the quarter’s growth rate, not the 1.51% previously estimated…real consumption of durable goods grew at a 9.2% rate, revised from the 8.7% growth rate reported in the second estimate, and added .67% to the final GDP figure; major contributors to that were a 15.7% real growth rate in consumption of recreational goods and vehicles and a 11.2% real growth rate in motor vehicle and parts consumption, while real consumption of furnishings and durable household equipment rose slightly and consumption of other durable goods fell, even as all durables consumption benefited from a negative 2.1% deflator…meanwhile, real personal consumption of non-durable goods rose at a 2.5% rate and added 0.39% to GDP, revised from the previous estimate of a 2.2% growth rate, even though inflation adjusted outlays for food and beverages, clothing, and energy goods were virtually unchanged….in addition, real consumption of services grew at an 2.5% rate and added 1.15% to the quarter’s growth, revised from the 1.2% growth rate and 0.53% addition reported in the second estimate last month, as real consumption of financial services and insurance grew at a 7.0% annual rate, real consumption of food and lodging services grew at a 4.9% rate, and real outlays for health care services rose at a 4.6% rate, offsetting a small decrease in real outlays for housing and utilities and while outlays for recreation and other services were flat.. </p>

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