Jul 192021
 


Giuseppe Leone Ragusa Sicily 1953

 

2nd Week in a Row: More Covid Vax Deaths than COVID-19 Deaths in the US (GP)
Four New Discoveries About Safety And Efficacy Of COVID Vaccines (DfCE)
Response to Dr. Bhakdi (VanDen Bossche)
Israel Bans Entry To Vaccinated Tourists (JPost)
2 More Texas Dems Who Fled State To Block GOP Voting Bill Test Positive (NYP)
Facebook Says 85% of US Users Are Pro-Vaccine (RT)
The Panic Pandemic (Tierney)
“Misinformation” Means Whatever The Censors Want It To Mean (Tracey)
Leak Uncovers Global Abuse Of Cyber-surveillance Weapon (G.)
The Controversial Prosecutor At The Heart Of The Julian Assange Case (IC)
Tribes Are Leading the Way to Remove Dams and Restore Ecosystems (Yes)

 

 

 

 

Heparin

 

 

 

 

We have a trend.

2nd Week in a Row: More Covid Vax Deaths than COVID-19 Deaths in the US (GP)

The VAERS website released its weekly numbers on Friday. There are now 11,140 reported deaths from the COVID vaccine in the United States. This is up from 9,125 reported deaths from the COVID-19 vaccinations total from last week. The number of deaths linked to vaccines this year has absolutely skyrocketed. According to the CDC’s own data. The VAERS database contains information on unverified reports of adverse events (illnesses, health problems and/or symptoms) following immunization with US-licensed vaccines. The CDC government website links to VAERS platform. Two weeks ago VAERS reported 6,985 deaths due to the COVID vaccines. Last week that number jumped to 9,048. That number is now at 11,140.

“The Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) database contains information on unverified reports of adverse events (illnesses, health problems and/or symptoms) following immunization with US-licensed vaccines. Reports are accepted from anyone and can be submitted electronically at www.vaers.hhs.gov.” There have been over 400,000 adverse reactions reported to the COVID vaccine. Last Week: there were 1,918 total COVID-19 deaths in the United States. Last Week: There were 2,092 deaths from the COVID Vaccines — According to the CDC-linked VAERS website. That means there were 174 more Covid vaccine deaths in the United States last week than Covid deaths in the United States last week. Why is this not making headlines?

45,000 have died within 3 days from the COVID Vax
https://twitter.com/i/status/1416947451056033795

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“Doctors for Covid Ethics has sent the following letter to tens of thousands of doctors in Europe, summarising four recent scientific findings critical to the COVID-19 vaccination program. The letter explains each finding as it relates to the biology of COVID-19 vaccines, including interactions with the immune system.

Taken together, the letter warns that these new pieces of evidence force all physicians administering COVID-19 vaccines to re-evaluate the merits of COVID-19 vaccination, in the interests of their own ethical standing, and their patients’ safety and health.”

Four New Discoveries About Safety And Efficacy Of COVID Vaccines (DfCE)

Discovery 1: SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein Circulates Shortly After Vaccination. SARS-CoV-2 proteins were measured in longitudinal plasma samples collected from 13 participants who received two doses of Moderna mRNA-1273 vaccine [1]. With 11 of the 13, the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein was detected in the blood within only one day after the first vaccine injection. Significance. Spike protein molecules were produced within cells that are in contact with the bloodstream—mostly endothelial cells—and released into the circulation. This means that a) the immune system will attack those endothelial cells, and b) the circulating spike protein molecules will activate thrombocytes. Both effects will promote blood clotting. This explains the many clotting-related adverse events—stroke, heart attack, venous thrombosis—that are being reported after vaccination.

Discovery 2: Rapid, Memory-Type Antibody Response After VaccinationSeveral studies have demonstrated that circulating SARS-CoV-2-specific IgG and IgA antibodies became detectable within 1-2 weeks after application of mRNA vaccines [1–3]. Significance. bRapid production of IgG and IgA always indicates a secondary, memory-type response that is elicited through re-stimulation of pre-existing immune cells. Primary immune responses to novel antigens take longer to evolve and initially produce IgM antibodies, which is then followed by the isotype switch to IgG and IgA.bA certain amount of IgM was indeed detected alongside IgG and IgA in some studies [1,4]. Importantly, however, IgG rose faster than IgM [4], which confirms that the early IgG response was indeed of the memory type.

This memory response indicates pre-existing, cross-reactive immunity due to previous infection with ordinary respiratory human coronavirus strains. The delayed IgM response most likely represents a primary response to novel epitopes which are specific to SARS-CoV-2.bMemory-type responses have also been documented with respect to T-cell-mediated immunity [5–7]. Overall, these findings indicate that our immune system efficiently recognizes SARS-CoV-2 as “known” even on first contact. Severe cases of the disease thus cannot be ascribed to lacking immunity. Instead, severe cases might very well be caused or aggravated by pre-existing immunity through antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE, see below).

Discovery 3: SARS-CoV-2 Elicits Robust Adaptive Immune Responses Regardless Of Disease Severity Serum antibody profiles were reported for 203 individuals following SARS-CoV-2 infection [8]. 202 (>99%) of the participants exhibited SARS-CoV-2 specific antibodies. With 193 individuals (95%), these antibodies prevented SARS-CoV-2 infection in cell culture and also inhibited binding of the spike protein to the ACE2 receptor. Furthermore, CD8+ T-cell responses specific for SARS-CoV-2 were clear and quantifiable in 95 of 106 (90%) HLA-A2-positive individuals. Significance. This study confirms the above assertion that the immune response to initial contact with SARS-CoV-2 is of the memory type.

In addition, it shows that this reaction occurs with almost all individuals, and particularly also with those who experience no manifest clinical symptoms. The goal of the vaccination is to stimulate production of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2, but we now know that such antibodies can and will be rapidly generated by everyone upon the slightest viral challenge, even without vaccination. Severe lung infections always take many days to develop, which means that if the antibodies generated by the memory response are needed, they will arrive on time. Therefore, vaccination is unlikely to provide significant benefit with respect to the prevention of severe lung infection.

Discovery 4: Rapid Increase Of Spike Protein Antibodies After The Second Injection Of MRNA Vaccines IgG and IgA antibody titres were monitored before vaccination and after the first and the second injection of mRNA vaccines [3]. Antibody titres rose with some delay after the first injection, then plateaued, but rose again very shortly after the second injection. Significance. Even though the antibody response to the first injection is of the memory type, the small time lag after the injection may mitigate adverse reactions, because the abundance of spike protein on the cells in the blood vessel walls and in other tissues may have already passed its peak when the antibodies arrive.

The situation changes dramatically with the second injection. Then the spikes are produced and protrude into the bloodstream that is already swarming with both reactive lymphocytes and antibodies. The antibodies will cause the complement system [9,10] and also neutrophil granulocytes to attack the spike protein-bearing cells. The possible consequences of all-out self-attack by the immune system are frightening.

Read more …

The article above references a Dr. Bahkdi video VanDen Bossche has issues with. Could we have an actual scientific discussion? Where do the censors stand on this one?

Response to Dr. Bhakdi (VanDen Bossche)

I herewith wanted to react to a recent video posted by Dr. Bhakdi (https://evidencenotfear.com/proof-that-puts-an-end-to-the-sars-cov-2-narrative-professor-sucharit-bhakdi-oracle-films/). I was quite stunned about the statements he made and could not believe that this had allegedly been published. Hence, I consulted the publications Dr. Bhakdi has been referring to in his presentation (you’ll find them in the article that accompanies the video). My contribution attached explains why his viewpoint in regard of herd immunity and protection against variants is highly questionable. Given his background and credentials, I am very surprised at his conclusions. It’s certainly not that I cannot refrain from criticizing but if we’re not going to stick to the science, we’re going to lose our precious credibility.

I am sure many of you have seen Dr. Bhakdi’s presentation. As much as I’d like to confirm his position, I cannot agree with his interpretation. Dr. Bhakdi is basically claiming that because of previous exposure to common cold viruses we have immune memory cells that can be recalled upon exposure to Sars-CoV-2 and protect us! This is not true! While there is no doubt that there is some cross-reactivity between immune responses to some spike(S)-derived epitopes on beta coronaviruses (CoVs), these immune responses are not cross-PROTECTIVE. Dr. Bhakdi is confusing all along cross-reactivity (which basically means that antibodies (Abs) or T cells induced by one CoV can BIND similar [conserved] epitopes on some other CoVs) and cross-protection.

However, immune RECOGNITION does not equal immune PROTECTION. None of the publications Dr. Bhakdi is referring to has analyzed or claims cross-PROTECTION elicited by other CoVs. Again, Abs that bind to Sars-CoV-2 do not necessarily neutralize the virus and prevent it from entering the cell. Of course, many people will have a history of common cold infection and hence may rapidly recall some spike-directed Abs (i.e., towards epitopes that are shared with Sars-CoV-2) upon exposure to Sars-CoV-2 or after immunization with Sars-CoV-2-derived antigens. However, this doesn’t mean at all that these rapidly rising IgG and IgA Dr. Bhakdi is referring to will neutralize Sars-CoV-2 and protect you from Covid-19 disease!

In addition, Sars-CoV-2-induced Abs were only found to cross-react with 2 out of the 4 common cold CoVs (i.e., only for beta coronavirus HKU1 and OC43) and the cross-reactivity was ‘much lower than that observed for the remaining CoV epitopes’. Furthermore, his statement that people who have built immunity against CoV are automatically protected against all Sars-CoV-2 variants is not true either for exactly the same reasons (i.e., Abs that bind to variants do not necessarily neutralize them and could even be at risk of causing Ab-dependent enhancement of disease; ADE).

Read more …

Israel is a prime example alright; of how the vaccine hunger screws up a country.

Israel Bans Entry To Vaccinated Tourists (JPost)

Vaccinated tourists will not be allowed to enter Israel on August 1, as had been previously planned, Health Ministry Director-General Prof. Nachman Ash said Sunday, also announcing that the authorities will discuss measures to restrict all travel. “We are postponing the date for the entry of tourists; it is not going to happen on August 1,” he said, adding that a new date has not been set. “Unfortunately, the current situation does not permit us to allow tourists to enter.” The director-general also warned the public that with the Delta variant raging around the world, this is not a time to fly abroad. He said the authorities are examining how to restrict travel, either by expanding the list of countries under the travel ban or severe travel warning, or by other means.


Channel 12 reported that health official are considering several options for a recommendation to bring before the cabinet, including shutting the airport for non essential traveling and requiring all travelers to enter isolation regardless of their immunization status and the country they fly from. However, according to the report, the most likely recommendation will be to significantly expand the list of countries under travel ban or travel warning – in both cases all returnees have to quarantine, for the first group Israelis are prohibited from visiting unless they obtain a permission from the devoted special governmental committee.

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Not arrested yet; they won’t return till August.

2 More Texas Dems Who Fled State To Block GOP Voting Bill Test Positive (NYP)

Two more Texas Democrats who traveled to Washington, DC, last week to prevent a vote on a Republican voting bill have tested positive for the coronavirus, a report said. The new cases, announced late Sunday by the Texas House Democratic Caucus, are in addition to the three other state Democratic lawmakers on the trip who have already tested positive for COVID-19, the Texas Tribune reported. The infected lawmakers are all fully vaccinated, the report said — and one is experiencing mild symptoms. Among the two newest members to test positive is state Rep. Trey Martinez Fischer, the lawmaker said. “Today, I received a positive COVID-19 rapid antigen test result. I am fully vaccinated, and had tested negative on Friday and Saturday.


“I am quarantining until I test negative, and I am grateful to be only experiencing extremely mild symptoms,” he told the newspaper in a statement. The Lone Star State Democrats left the state House of Representatives last Monday and flew aboard two chartered flights to the nation’s capital to scuttle a Republican-backed election reform bill by depriving the chamber a quorum. While in Washington to wait out the special legislative session called by Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, the Democrats met with congressional lawmakers to press them to approve the For the People Act and the John Lewis Voting Rights Act. The state lawmakers have been slammed by Republicans for running away from their duties to represent their constituents, and Abbott has threatened to have them arrested when they return to Texas in August.

Read more …

Because our users are not terribly smart people…

Facebook Says 85% of US Users Are Pro-Vaccine (RT)

Facebook has patted itself on the back for encouraging vaccine acceptance among its US users, noting an increase of 10-15% since January, while firing back at President Joe Biden’s claim of subverting the rollout. “The data shows that 85% of Facebook users in the US have been or want to be vaccinated against COVID-19,” Facebook VP of Integrity Guy Rosen said in a blog post on Saturday, rejecting Biden’s charge that social media was to blame for the lack of enthusiasm among Americans towards the Covid-19 jabs. On Friday, Biden tore into social media platforms such as Facebook, accusing them of “killing people” by not cracking down on non-conventional opinions about vaccination fervently enough.

“They’re killing people… Look, the only pandemic we have is among the unvaccinated. And they’re killing people,” the US president said. Dismissing the allegation, Rosen accused Biden of essentially making Facebook a scapegoat for his administration’s failure to reach its self-imposed goal of having 70% Americans vaccinated by July 4. “President Biden’s goal was for 70% of Americans to be vaccinated by July 4. Facebook is not the reason this goal was missed,” Rosen said, arguing that figures “tell a very different story to the one promoted by the administration.” Facebook, Rosen claimed, has seen a dramatic increase in confidence in Covid-19 vaccines among its American users in the last six months.

“Since January, vaccine acceptance on the part of Facebook users in the US has increased by 10-15 percentage points (70%->80-85%),” Rosen wrote, citing a recent survey by Carnegie Mellon University. He added that distrust of the jabs among racial and ethnic minorities has “shrunk considerably” as well. Facebook has deployed “unprecedented resources” in its fight against the pandemic, such as “pointing people to reliable information” and facilitating vaccine appointments, he noted. In addition to persuading people of the effectiveness and safety of the vaccines through pop-up labels under coronavirus-related posts, Facebook has been waging a war on information that does not align with the official stance of the World Health Organization (WHO) or local governments.

Read more …

” It was a dangerous experiment being conducted without knowing the answer to the most basic question: Just how lethal is this virus?”

The Panic Pandemic (Tierney)

The United States suffered through two lethal waves of contagion in the past year and a half. The first was a viral pandemic that killed about one in 500 Americans—typically, a person over 75 suffering from other serious conditions. The second, and far more catastrophic, was a moral panic that swept the nation’s guiding institutions. Instead of keeping calm and carrying on, the American elite flouted the norms of governance, journalism, academic freedom—and, worst of all, science. They misled the public about the origins of the virus and the true risk that it posed. Ignoring their own carefully prepared plans for a pandemic, they claimed unprecedented powers to impose untested strategies, with terrible collateral damage. As evidence of their mistakes mounted, they stifled debate by vilifying dissenters, censoring criticism, and suppressing scientific research.

If, as seems increasingly plausible, the coronavirus that causes Covid-19 leaked out of a laboratory in Wuhan, it is the costliest blunder ever committed by scientists. Whatever the pandemic’s origin, the response to it is the worst mistake in the history of the public-health profession. We still have no convincing evidence that the lockdowns saved lives, but lots of evidence that they have already cost lives and will prove deadlier in the long run than the virus itself. One in three people worldwide lost a job or a business during the lockdowns, and half saw their earnings drop, according to a Gallup poll. Children, never at risk from the virus, in many places essentially lost a year of school. The economic and health consequences were felt most acutely among the less affluent in America and in the rest of the world, where the World Bank estimates that more than 100 million have been pushed into extreme poverty.

The leaders responsible for these disasters continue to pretend that their policies worked and assume that they can keep fooling the public. They’ve promised to deploy these strategies again in the future, and they might even succeed in doing so—unless we begin to understand what went wrong. The panic was started, as usual, by journalists. As the virus spread early last year, they highlighted the most alarming statistics and the scariest images: the estimates of a fatality rate ten to 50 times higher than the flu, the chaotic scenes at hospitals in Italy and New York City, the predictions that national health-care systems were about to collapse. The full-scale panic was set off by the release in March 2020 of a computer model at the Imperial College in London, which projected that—unless drastic measures were taken—intensive-care units would have 30 Covid patients for every available bed and that America would see 2.2 million deaths by the end of the summer.

The British researchers announced that the “only viable strategy” was to impose draconian restrictions on businesses, schools, and social gatherings until a vaccine arrived. This extraordinary project was swiftly declared the “consensus” among public-health officials, politicians, journalists, and academics. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, endorsed it and became the unassailable authority for those purporting to “follow the science.” What had originally been a limited lockdown—“15 days to slow the spread”—became long-term policy across much of the United States and the world. A few scientists and public-health experts objected, noting that an extended lockdown was a novel strategy of unknown effectiveness that had been rejected in previous plans for a pandemic. It was a dangerous experiment being conducted without knowing the answer to the most basic question: Just how lethal is this virus?

Read more …

Freedom of speech is dead, but not from the virus.

“Misinformation” Means Whatever The Censors Want It To Mean (Tracey)

Government officials and their lackeys in the media often speak of the term “misinformation” as though it has some sort of universally-accepted, politically neutral definition. That’s always been total BS, but generating the mirage of neutrality has been a necessary ingredient in popularizing the “misinformation” concept over the past five years. Those who reject the impositions of mainstream cultural and political elites must not be simply wrong, but maliciously brainwashed by “misinformation” that complicit entities such as the social media platforms allow to proliferate.

In 2018, when these entities engineered a simultaneous cross-platform purge of Alex Jones, there was an avalanche of media apologia for this hitherto unprecedented act of censorship. Jones had caused unique harm, the journalists cried, and the platforms were merely “Enforcing The Rules.” But of course what they were oblivious to was that “the rules,” such as they exist, are just a function of power. “Misinformation” and other alleged infractions of social media “rules” are determined at the whim of whoever happens to wield censorship and speech-regulation power at that moment. Journalists themselves, chronically oblivious to their own power, were exactly the ones who agitated for the expulsion of Jones, and their agitation succeeded.

Here is an article I wrote the day after this cross-platform purge: “Alex Jones’ lunacy is self-evident and needs no further comment. The only relevant question is whether we want a media landscape in which a tiny cadre of unelected private officials are empowered to decide, in secret and with no mechanisms for accountability, that the time has come to purge this lunatic from the public square. “Now, just around three years later, we receive a declaration from a spokesperson for the President that the Federal Government is seeking to coerce, mandate, or otherwise bring about routinized cross-platform purges. “You shouldn’t be banned from one platform, and not others, for providing misinformation out there,” press secretary Jen Psaki demanded, creepily calling on the social media giants to create “robust enforcement strategies that bridge their properties.”

So if you were under any illusion back in 2018 that this would ever stop with Jones — a figure believed to be sufficiently repulsive that any punishment doled out to him would not have broader implications for the average internet user — well, it didn’t take long for proof of just how wrong you were. Journalists and others with influential platforms, particularly those who spend all day everyday on the internet and rely on it for their livelihood, at least in theory have a duty to demonstrate some semblance of foresight. Meaning, to consider issues of public interest that go beyond their short-term desire for political vengeance.

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Big story yada yada, even Snowden says it, but it’s from the Guardian.

Leak Uncovers Global Abuse Of Cyber-surveillance Weapon (G.)

Human rights activists, journalists and lawyers across the world have been targeted by authoritarian governments using hacking software sold by the Israeli surveillance company NSO Group, according to an investigation into a massive data leak. The investigation by the Guardian and 16 other media organisations suggests widespread and continuing abuse of NSO’s hacking spyware, Pegasus, which the company insists is only intended for use against criminals and terrorists. Pegasus is a malware that infects iPhones and Android devices to enable operators of the tool to extract messages, photos and emails, record calls and secretly activate microphones. The leak contains a list of more than 50,000 phone numbers that, it is believed, have been identified as those of people of interest by clients of NSO since 2016.

Forbidden Stories, a Paris-based nonprofit media organisation, and Amnesty International initially had access to the leaked list and shared access with media partners as part of the Pegasus project, a reporting consortium. The presence of a phone number in the data does not reveal whether a device was infected with Pegasus or subject to an attempted hack. However, the consortium believes the data is indicative of the potential targets NSO’s government clients identified in advance of possible surveillance attempts. Forensics analysis of a small number of phones whose numbers appeared on the leaked list also showed more than half had traces of the Pegasus spyware. The Guardian and its media partners will be revealing the identities of people whose number appeared on the list in the coming days.

They include hundreds of business executives, religious figures, academics, NGO employees, union officials and government officials, including cabinet ministers, presidents and prime ministers. The list also contains the numbers of close family members of one country’s ruler, suggesting the ruler may have instructed their intelligence agencies to explore the possibility of monitoring their own relatives. The disclosures begin on Sunday, with the revelation that the numbers of more than 180 journalists are listed in the data, including reporters, editors and executives at the Financial Times, CNN, the New York Times, France 24, the Economist, Associated Press and Reuters.

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It’s personal.

The Controversial Prosecutor At The Heart Of The Julian Assange Case (IC)

The battle to extradite WikiLeaks publisher Julian Assange from the United Kingdom to the United States is shaping up to be a legal case of paramount importance to the future of national security reporting. The U.S. continues to press the case even after a change of administration, with President Joe Biden keeping up efforts to bring Assange to a U.S. court on Espionage Act charges for his role in publishing classified government documents. One little-noted name in filings from extradition hearings in the U.K. keeps popping up as a key figure in the U.S. government’s case: a federal prosecutor named Gordon Kromberg. On the central questions of what assistance Assange provided to whistleblower Chelsea Manning and the ostensible harm his actions caused to U.S. national security, a U.K. court filing earlier this year cites Kromberg’s assertions verbatim.

“Mr. Kromberg’s evidence on this is clear,” the filing says. “He stated that stealing hundreds of thousands of documents from classified databases was a multistep process.” The same document cites Kromberg again, claiming that “well over one hundred people were placed at risk from the disclosures and approximately fifty people sought and received assistance from the US” — references to purported U.S. intelligence assets outed by the documents WikiLeaks published. Kromberg, an assistant United States attorney in the Eastern District of Virginia, may be unknown to foreign and even many American observers. In U.S. legal circles, though, he has been a highly controversial figure for over two decades, dogged by accusations of bias and politicization in his prosecutions.

For years, civil rights activists and lawyers tried to draw attention to allegations of Kromberg’s abusive practices. Rather than being pushed into obscurity by these efforts, today he is serving as a key figure in one of the most important civil liberties cases in the world. In all, the January court documents from Assange’s extradition case mention Kromberg over 40 times to help make the legal argument for extraditing Assange. Many of his statements go to the heart of the Espionage Act case against the WikiLeaks publisher.

[..] In the years after the 2001 September 11 terrorist attacks, Gordon Kromberg became the government’s point man on notorious terrorism cases involving allegations of torture and malicious prosecution. In the past, opposing counsels and civil rights groups accused him of engaging in racist behavior and using unethical tactics in pursuit of convictions. Legal experts said that the inclusion of a notoriously politicized and aggressive prosecutor on a high-profile extradition case like Assange’s is a sign of how strongly the government is motivated to extradite the WikiLeaks publisher and bring Espionage Act charges at all costs.

“A common factor in Kromberg’s career has been a willingness to take very provocative positions on behalf of the government and stay the course with them,” said Wadie Said, a professor of law at the University of South Carolina and author of “Crimes of Terror: The Legal and Political Implications of Federal Terrorism Prosecutions.” “He has also shown great willingness to take on highly political cases and to be a lightning rod himself for attention; he often makes himself part of the story with his own actions and statements.” Said added, “From my perspective, some of the things that Kromberg has said in the past and the positions that he has taken are quite tendentious and even vindictive in terms of his mindset toward the person that he is targeting.”

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Good.

Tribes Are Leading the Way to Remove Dams and Restore Ecosystems (Yes)

Cameron Macias bent down to examine a small pile of sawdust-filled scat on the floor of the former Lake Mills on the Elwha River in the northwest corner of Washington state in 2016. It was a sign that beavers were moving into the area after a 100+ year absence. “There’s very small dam-building activity in some of the side tributaries,” says Macias, who was working at the time as a wildlife technician for the Lower Elwha Klallam Tribe, of which she is a member. “It’s kind of funny and ironic because of the dam removal,” Macias says with a laugh. The dams she’s referring to—the Elwha and Glines Canyon dams—were removed in 2011 and 2014 respectively, and together they are considered the world’s largest dam removal project to date.

Many other tribes have looked to the success of the Elwha River dam removals in bringing down fish-blocking dams in their lands as well, including along the Snake River and the Columbia River in the Pacific Northwest. Together, the country’s 2 million dams block access to more than 600,000 miles of river for fish. And by 2030, the American Society of Civil Engineers estimates that 80% of those dams will be beyond their 50-year lifespans. Given how obsolete and potentially dangerous this infrastructure will be, not to mention its negative effects on declining fish stocks, the best solution for many aging dams is to simply remove them. But bringing down a dam is a big job.

When the Elwha River dams fell, it was the culmination of many decades of successful partnerships among the Lower Elwha Klallam Tribe, the National Park Service, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and dozens of other local and national organizations. Today, those partnerships continue to support the tribe in righting historic wrongs. The Elwha Dam was built in 1910 to provide electricity to attract new settlers, in flagrant violation of a Washington state law that said dams must allow for fish passage. At the time, no one consulted the Lower Elwha Klallam people, whose culture rests on the salmon that would be blocked by the dams. “We had a few of the elders that even stood in the areas of the lower dam where they were starting to build to protest,” says Frances Charles, the tribal chairwoman for the Lower Elwha Klallam Tribe.

But the dam construction proceeded, and afterward, hatcheries were put in as a sort of life support to keep salmon populations afloat. Every year, the fish born in the hatcheries would try to return to the spawning grounds of their ancestors, banging their heads on the dam in a desperate attempt to get upstream. “We ourselves felt like we were banging our heads against the concrete wall, no different than the salmon,” Charles says. Things changed in January 1986 when the tribe filed a motion to stop the relicensing of the dams, citing that the dam prevented them from exercising their treaty rights because it blocked fish passage. “The tribe and [Olympic National] Park and the environmental interests said, ‘You know, if you’re going to license these things, you’re going to provide fish passage,’” says Mike McHenry, the Tribe’s fisheries habitat manager. Studies showed that building fish passages wouldn’t effectively restore the salmon runs, so the decision was made to take down the dams. Still, it took an Act of Congress and $325 million to complete the job.

Read more …

 

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Oct 012015
 
 October 1, 2015  Posted by at 8:41 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , , ,  1 Response »


John Vachon Beer signs on truck, Little Falls, Minnesota Oct 1940

2015 Is Turning Out to Be a Terrible Year for Investors (Bloomberg)
End Of World’s Biggest Ever Credit Boom Means More “Glencores” Ahead (Howell)
Traders Start Pricing Glencore Bonds Like Junk (FT)
Why Dow’s Three-Quarter Losing Streak Is A Big Deal (MarketWatch)
October 1 2015: China Factory Activity Picks Up To Beat Expectations (BBC)
Futures Soar After Chinese Composite PMI Drops To Lowest On Record (Zero Hedge)
China Cuts Minimum Home Down Payment for First-Time Buyers (Bloomberg)
Oil Suffers A Loss Of 24% For The Quarter (MarketWatch)
Market Moves That Aren’t Supposed to Happen Keep Happening (Tracy Alloway)
Wide Range Of Cars Emit More Pollution In Realistic Driving Conditions (Guardian)
VW Emissions Scandal: 1.2 Million UK Cars Affected (Guardian)
VW Board Considering Steps To Prop Up Credit Rating (Reuters)
Eurozone Inflation Turns Negative, Putting ECB In Corner (Reuters)
Tsipras Finds ‘Open Ears’ In US To Greek Appeal For Debt Relief (Kath.)
Greek Regulator Bans Short-Selling Of Bank Shares (Reuters)
How Greece Could Collapse The Eurozone (Satyajit Das)
Greek Shipowners Prepare to Weigh Anchor on Prospect of Higher Taxes (WSJ)
Iceland’s Next Collapse Is “Unavoidable,” Employers Union Warns (Bloomberg)
Obama Hands $1 Billion In Military Aid To Goverments Using Child Soldiers (CNN)
Millions Of Illegal Immigrants Will Overrun Trump’s ‘Beautiful Wall’ (Farrell)
Farmers Driven From Homes ‘Like Pests’ As Asia Plans 500 Dams (Bloomberg)

Debt. Deflation.

2015 Is Turning Out to Be a Terrible Year for Investors (Bloomberg)

For investors around the world, 2015 is turning into a year to forget. Stocks, commodities and currency funds are all in the red, and even the measly gains in bonds are being wiped out by what little inflation there is in the global economy. Rounding out its steepest quarterly descent in four years, the MSCI All Country World Index of shares is down 6.6% in 2015 including dividends. The Bloomberg Commodity Index has slumped 16%, while a Parker Global Strategies index of currency funds dropped 1.8%. Fixed income has failed to offer much of a haven: Bank of America’s global debt index gained just 1%, less than the 2.5% increase in world consumer prices shown in an IMF index. After three years in a virtuous cycle of rising share prices and unprecedented monetary easing, markets are now sinking as emerging economies from China to Brazil weaken and corporate profits slump.

Analysts have cut their global growth estimates for 2015 to 3% from 3.5% at the start of the year, and the turmoil has added pressure on central banks to prolong their stimulus programs, with traders scaling back forecasts for a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase by year-end. “There was an element of people believing they had found some sort of holy grail to investing, then this breakdown occurs and it breaks down in a way that’s remarkable,” said Tobias Levkovich, Citigroup’s chief U.S. equity strategist. “What seemed to trigger this all was China. It sent us on a wave of downward fears.” Investors suffered the brunt of this year’s losses in the third quarter. MSCI’s global equity index sank about 10% in the period, while the Bloomberg commodity index lost 14% in its biggest slump since the global financial crisis seven years ago.

The average level of Bank of America’s Market Risk index, a measure of price swings in equities, rates, currencies and raw materials, was the most this quarter since the end of 2011. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, a gauge of turbulence known as the VIX, reached the highest since 2011 in August. China has been the biggest source of anxiety for investors, after turmoil in the nation’s financial markets fueled concern that the country’s worst economic slowdown since 1990 was deepening. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 29% in the third quarter, the most worldwide, and the yuan weakened 2.4% after authorities devalued the currency in August. That sent a shudder around the world.

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And all over the world too.

End Of World’s Biggest Ever Credit Boom Means More “Glencores” Ahead (Howell)

It’s the great unwind show. Admittedly, Glencore’s latest problems may run deeper and look more specific, but together with Vale and Rio, the other great international mining houses plus their suppliers, like America’s Caterpillar, all are suffering the fall-out from the end of the world’s biggest ever credit boom. Oil is testing recent lows and commodity prices almost across the board are skidding. Alongside, emerging market currencies are being trashed and some even fear that this turmoil will spill-over into a recession by next year. It will. Your white-knuckle ride is far from over. So how did we get here? The answer comes in three parts.

Firstly, the fragile global financial system that disintegrated spectacularly in 2008 has simply been taped back together and not fundamentally rebuilt, so leaving it vulnerable to a renewed bust of funding problems. Secondly, debt problems have not been tackled. By demanding “austerity”, many governments have simply reshuffled debts from their balance sheets on to more fragile private sector ones. Debt burdens across emerging markets, for example, have jumped since 2007. Lastly, the biggest factor is China. China is only just starting to adjust to its huge credit boom. Since the year 2000, the size of its asset economy has jumped an eye-watering 12-fold.

This includes the construction of new cities, thousands of miles of motorway, several airports and, as the brochures once advertised, a new skyscraper every 14-days, pushing up her credit markets to a bloated $25 trillion. History teaches us that there are four stages to every credit cycle: (1) 20-30% rates of new loan growth; (2) asset price bubbles in real estate, commodities, equities and often art; (3) banking problems, corruption and state intervention, and (4) currency collapse. China already ticks the first three boxes, and a pen is hovering over the fourth. The decision to weaken the renminbi in August may have less to do with exchange rate politics, as some have suggested, and more to do with a plain shortage of US dollars.

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“..trading in the $36bn of bonds outstanding has moved to a cash basis, where prices are quoted in terms of cents on the dollar of face value.”

Traders Start Pricing Glencore Bonds Like Junk (FT)

Traders have started to quote prices for Glencore debt in a manner normally associated with lower-quality paper, commonly known as junk bonds. The shift in pricing dynamics in the private over-the-counter markets this week came as shares in Glencore swung wildly as investors worry about the ability of the miner and trading house to manage its debt pile in a commodity downturn. The group retains an investment grade credit rating according to rating agencies and its $36bn of outstanding bonds have up to now been bought and sold on the basis of their yield, which moves inversely to price. But this week, dealers and investors say trading in the $36bn of bonds outstanding has moved to a cash basis, where prices are quoted in terms of cents on the dollar of face value. This form of pricing is generally used for junk bonds, which have a higher risk of default.

Pressure on the company’s debt and equity has intensified as analysts debate the effect of falling raw materials prices and rising debt costs. One investment bank warned on Monday that the group’s equity might be worthless if commodity prices did not recover swiftly. The company said it retained “strong lines of credit and access to funding”. Unsecured senior Glencore debt maturing in May 2016 traded below 93 cents on the dollar on Tuesday, with some trades occurring below 90 cents, according to investors. A buyer of the debt should receive a 0.85 cent coupon in November, and a dollar of principal back in eight months’ time. The return available from doing so is equivalent to around a 13% yield on an annual basis. Prices for longer-term debt fell even further as investors began to assess the potential recovery values for Glencore debt, most of which is unsecured. “Everything beyond five years is trading around or below 70 cents on the dollar,” Zoso Davies at Barclays said.

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The history of three-quarter losing streaks is not pretty.

Why Dow’s Three-Quarter Losing Streak Is A Big Deal (MarketWatch)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has suffered a third-straight quarterly decline for the first time since the Great Recession. This marks just the third time in nearly 40 years that a quarterly losing streak for the blue-chips benchmark stretched at least that long. The Dow surged 236 points on Wednesday, but has lost 1,335 points, or 7.6%, since the end of June. The Dow had lost 156.61 points, or 0.9%, over the second quarter and 46.95 points, or 0.3%, over the first quarter. The last time the Dow had a three-quarter losing streak was the six-quarter stretch ending the first quarter of 2009. Before that, there was a five-quarter losing streak ending with the first quarter of 1978, according to FactSet data.

In the Dow’s 119-year history, there have now been 20 quarterly losing streaks that stretched at least three quarters. The longest losing streak is six quarters, suffered twice, through the first quarter of 2009 and through the second quarter of 1970. There have been 12 quarterly losing streaks that have lasted longer than three quarters. If the current quarterly losing streak were to be snapped in the fourth quarter, the total three-quarter loss of 8.6% would be the smallest of all the other three-quarter losing streaks.

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What a difference a week makes, and/or a survey…

October 1 2015: China Factory Activity Picks Up To Beat Expectations (BBC)

Factory activity in China picked up in September, beating expectations, according to the government’s official manufacturing survey. The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) was up to 49.8 from 49.7 in August, but the sector did shrink for the second consecutive month.

23 September 2015: China Factory Activity Contraction Worsens (BBC)

China’s factory activity contracted at the fastest pace for six and a half years in September, according to a preliminary survey of the vast sector. The Caixin/Markit manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 47 in September, below forecasts of 47.5 and down from 47.3 in August.

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More of that discrepancy in China numbers.

Futures Soar After Chinese Composite PMI Drops To Lowest On Record (Zero Hedge)

Chinese markets may be closed for the next week due to a national holiday but China’s goalseeked manufacturing survey(s), which were the most anticipated data points of the evening, came right on schedule (or rather, were leaked just ahead of schedule). And they certainly did not disappoint in their disappointment. First, it was the official NBS September PMI, which at 49.8 was the smallest possible fraction above both the previous and expected, both of which were 49.7. The number was leaked about 6 minutes before the official statement, and while the leaked print which all humans were aware of well before the official release time at 9pm Eastern, had no impact on markets, it was the flashing red headline which confirmed the leak and which was read by machine-reading algos everywhere, that sent the E-mini spasming higher.

But while the official “data” was bad, and confirmed the economy remains in contraction, the Caixin – aka the new HSBC – Markit PMIs were absolutely atrocious. We bring you… the HSBC Manufacturing print, which dropped from 47.3 to 47.2, and which according to Caixin was the lowest print since March 2009. From the report:

A key factor weighing on the headline index was a sharper contraction of manufacturing output in September. According to panellists, worsening business conditions and subdued client demand had led firms to cut their production schedules. Weaker customer demand was highlighted by a further fall in total new orders placed at Chinese goods producers in September. Furthermore, the rate of reduction was the steepest seen for just over three years. Data suggested that the faster decline in total new business partly stemmed from a sharper fall in new export work. The latest survey showed new orders from abroad declined at the quickest rate since March 2009.

Reflective of lower workloads, manufacturing companies cut their staff numbers again in September. Moreover, the latest reduction in employment was the fastest seen in 80 months. Meanwhile, reduced production capacity led to an increased amount of unfinished work, though the pace of backlog accumulation was only slight.

Manufacturing companies noted a further steep decline in average cost burdens during September. Furthermore, the rate of deflation was the sharpest seen since April. Reports from panellists mentioned that lower raw material prices, particularly for oil-related products, had cut overall input costs. Increased competition for new work led manufacturing companies to generally pass on their savings to clients, as highlighted by a solid decline in output charges.

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“It’s one policy that’s part of a grand strategy to revive property investment and the whole national economy.”

China Cuts Minimum Home Down Payment for First-Time Buyers (Bloomberg)

China’s central bank cut the minimum home down payment required of first-time buyers for the first time in five years, stepping up support for the property market after five interest-rate reductions since November failed to reverse an economic slowdown. The People’s Bank of China cut the minimum down payment for buyers in cities without purchase restrictions to 25% from 30%, according to a statement released on its website Wednesday. The previous requirement had been in place since 2010, when the government boosted the ratio from 20% to help curb property speculation.

The move extends a year of loosening in the property market as Premier Li Keqiang seeks to boost demand in the world’s second-largest economy after fiscal and monetary stimulus produced few signs of a rebound. Growth will slow to 6.8% this year, according to the median of economist estimates compiled by Bloomberg. That’s below the government’s target for an expansion of about 7%. “Amid China’s economic slowdown, property’s role as a growth pillar has become even more important, and the government clearly sees it,” said Shen Jianguang at Mizuho in Hong Kong. “It’s one policy that’s part of a grand strategy to revive property investment and the whole national economy.”

While property investment has remained weak, home sales have recovered after mortgage policy easing and removal of purchase restrictions helped support demand. New-home prices rose in 35 of 70 cities in August, up from 31 in July and just two cities in February. UBS Group has estimated the real-estate industry accounts for more than a quarter of final demand in the economy when including property-related goods including electric machinery and instruments, chemicals and metals. The government also has urged some cities to allow citizens to borrow more from housing funds to help buyers, and encouraged cities to securitize more of those loans, according to a statement on the housing ministry’s website.

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In Q4, a lot of ‘reserves’ must be marked to much more realistic levels. That’s going to hurt.

Oil Suffers A Loss Of 24% For The Quarter (MarketWatch)

Oil futures tallied a loss of 24% for the third quarter, after ending Wednesday lower on the back of a report revealing the first U.S. crude-supply increase in three weeks. The report also showed a modest decline in domestic production, helping prices limit losses for the session. November West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $45.09 a barrel, down 14 cents, or 0.3%, on the New York Mercantile Exchange, trading between a high of $45.85 and a low of $44.68, according to FactSet data. WTI prices, based the front-month contracts, lost 8.4% for the month and were 24% lower for the quarter. Year to date, they’re down by more than 15%. November Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange tacked on 14 cents, or 0.3%, to $48.37 a barrel.

Year to date, prices have fallen more than 15%. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday an increase of four million barrels in crude supplies for the week ended Sept. 25. That was the first climb in three weeks. Analysts polled by Platts expected supplies to be unchanged, while the American Petroleum Institute Tuesday said supplies jumped 4.6 million barrels. Part of the reason for the increase in crude supplies was less demand from refineries, where activity decreased with maintenance season in effect. Refinery utilization fell to 89.8% last week from 90.9%.

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Volatility. Way outside Fed control.

Market Moves That Aren’t Supposed to Happen Keep Happening (Tracy Alloway)

A counterpoint to Bill Dudley’s Wednesday speech on bond market liquidity comes courtesy of TD Securities. While the New York Fed president argued that there’s little evidence so far that new financial regulation has cut into the ease of trading U.S. Treasuries, TD analysts Priya Misra and Gennadiy Goldberg think otherwise. They point to daily, wild swings in the bond market as evidence of diminished liquidity.

Our findings show that daily changes in 10-year Treasury yields exceeded one standard deviation (√) 58% of the time so far in 2015, considerably higher than the 49% observed last year. The 58% measure is the highest reading going back to 1975, suggesting that recent volatility in Treasury markets is unprecedented. As if a record number of “choppy days” were not enough, 10-year yield movements also exceeded 3√ in as many as 9% of trading days this year. This is higher than the average of 6% of days since 1975.

It’s a point that’s been brought up before, notably by Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Barnaby Martin. These observers argue that the number of assets registering large moves four or more standard deviations away from their normal trading range has been growing in recent months. Moves greater than one standard deviation should (based on a normal distribution of probabilities) happen about 32% of the time. Instead as the TD analysts point out, they are happening 58% of the time in U.S. Treasuries. Moves greater than three standard deviations should be happening about 1% of the time, not 9%.

While Dudley finds little evidence of average bond market liquidity having deteriorated, TD reckons the problem lies in so-called “tail events,” in which increased regulation and changes to market structure exacerbate the potential for extreme moves. Looking at average liquidity conditions won’t show much evidence of a problem, therefore. That might go some way toward explaining why all those market moves that are supposed to not happen very often keep occurring with some regularity.

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If everybody does it, who are you going to punish?

Wide Range Of Cars Emit More Pollution In Realistic Driving Conditions (Guardian)

New diesel cars from Renault, Nissan, Hyundai, Citroen, Fiat, Volvo and other manufacturers have all been found to emit substantially higher levels of pollution when tested in more realistic driving conditions, according to new data seen by the Guardian. Research compiled by Adac, Europe’s largest motoring organisation, shows that some of the diesel cars it examined released over 10 times more NOx than revealed by existing EU tests, using an alternative standard due to be introduced later this decade. Adac put the diesel cars through the EU’s existing lab-based regulatory test (NEDC) and then compared the results with a second, UN-developed test (WLTC) which, while still lab-based, is longer and is believed to better represent real driving conditions. The WLTC is currently due to be introduced by the EU in 2017.

[..] Emissions experts have warned for some time that there were problems with official lab-based NOx tests, meaning there was a failure to limit on-the-road emissions. “Gaming and optimising the test is ubiquitous across the industry,” said Greg Archer, an emissions expert at Transport & Environment. A recent T&E round-up of evidence found this affected nine out of 10 new diesel cars, which were on average seven times more polluting in the real world. But the Adac data are the first detailed list of specific makes and models affected. Adac also measured a Volvo S60 D4 producing NOx emissions over 14 times the official test level [..]

T&E argues that the Adac WLTC tests are minimum estimates of actual on-the-road emissions. Archer said the EU must back up the WLTC with on-the-road tests and end the practice of carmakers paying for the tests at their preferred test centres. “It is more realistic but it still isn’t entirely representative,” said Archer. “We still think there is a gap of about 25% between the WLTC test and typical average new car driving.”

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“The admission means that the UK is one of the countries worst affected by the scandal..”

VW Emissions Scandal: 1.2 Million UK Cars Affected (Guardian)

Volkswagen has revealed that almost 1.2m vehicles in the UK are involved in the diesel emissions scandal that has rocked the carmaker, meaning more than one in 10 diesel cars on the country’s roads are affected. VW said the diesel vehicles include 508,276 Volkswagen cars, 393,450 Audis, 76,773 Seats, 131,569 Skodas and 79,838 Volkswagen commercial vehicles. The total number of vehicles affected is 1,189,906. This is the first time VW has admitted how many of the 11m vehicles fitted with a defeat device to cheat emissions tests are in the UK.

The admission means that the UK is one of the countries worst affected by the scandal and will increase the pressure on the government to launch a full investigation. Figures from the Department for Transport show that there were 10.7m diesel cars on Britain s roads at the end of 2014 and that an estimated 5.3m of the petrol and diesel cars are Volkswagens or one of the groups sister brands. Patrick McLoughlin, the transport secretary, said: The government s priority is to protect the public and I understand VW are contacting all UK customers affected. I have made clear to the managing director this needs to happen as soon as possible. “The government expects VW to set out quickly the next steps it will take to correct the problem and support owners of these vehicles already purchased in the UK.”

VW said 2.8m vehicles in Germany are involved, while 482,000 cars have been recalled in the US. The company intends to set up a self-serve process that will allow UK motorists to find out if their vehicle is affected. Dealers will also be sent the vehicle identification numbers of those involved. Affected customers will be contacted about visiting a mechanic to have their cars refitted. The cars fitted with a defeat device have EA 189 EU5 engines. However, VW is yet to reveal the full details of the recall plan, which will need to be approved by regulators. The carmaker said: “In the meantime, all vehicles are technically safe and roadworthy. Volkswagen Group UK is committed to supporting its customers and its retailers through the coming weeks.”

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Buyback!

VW Board Considering Steps To Prop Up Credit Rating (Reuters)

Members of Volkswagen’s supervisory board are concerned about the carmaker’s credit rating and are considering steps to prop it up but have no plans to sell off assets, two sources close to the board said. Volkswagen declined to comment on the sources, who spoke to Reuters late on Wednesday evening. They said that following recent actions from credit rating agencies Fitch and Moody’s, there were worries that a downgrade could inflict higher borrowing costs on the company, hampering its ability to win back the trust of investors. As a result, the board is considering cost cuts and revenue-generating measures. However no discussions on selling off VW assets or brands have taken place, the sources said. The Wolfsburg-based company has been hammered by the revelations that it manipulated diesel emissions tests.

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An endless supply of stupidity. Or is it perfidiousness?

Eurozone Inflation Turns Negative, Putting ECB In Corner (Reuters)

Eurozone inflation turned negative again in September as oil prices tumbled, raising pressure on the European Central Bank to beef up its asset purchases to kick start anaemic price growth. Prices fell by 0.1% on an annual basis, the first time since March that inflation has dipped below zero, missing analysts’ expectations for a zero reading after August’s 0.1% increase. The negative reading is a headache for the ECB, which is buying €60 billion of assets a month to boost prices. It has already said it may have to increase or extend the QE scheme because inflation may fall short of its target of almost 2% even in 2017.

Long term inflation expectations have dropped to their lowest since February, before the ECB’s asset purchases started, as China’s economic slowdown, the commodity rout and paltry euro zone lending growth reinforce pessimistic predictions. Even Finnish central bank chief Erkki Liikanen, normally considered an inflation hawk, has warned that euro zone growth is at risk from the slowdown in emerging markets and that inflation could fall short of already modest expectations. “We believe the ECB will extend its QE programme beyond September 2016, most likely until mid-2018, and that it could reach €2.4 trillion – more than twice the original €1.1 trillion commitment,” credit ratings agency Standard & Poor’s said on Wednesday.

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Let’s see it first.

Tsipras Finds ‘Open Ears’ In US To Greek Appeal For Debt Relief (Kath.)

Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras on Wednesday indicated that Greece’s appeal for debt relief had been received far better in New York than in Brussels, continuing his US visit which included talks with Secretary of State John Kerry. “The Greek government has found far more open ears [here] than in Brussels for the need for there to be a fair resolution of the crisis and a necessary reduction of the unbearable and unsustainable public debt that has accumulated all those years,” Tsipras told reporters. He was speaking on the fifth day of an official visit to the US and following meetings with representatives of the Greek-American community in New York who he described as “the best ambassadors for Hellenism in the US, a country which plays the most significant role globally in all the crucial decisions that relate to our country’s future.”

Tsipras said Greeks have been “the victim of choices that led to the gradual erosion of the country’s national sovereignty and to the need for borrowing which resulted in the enforcement of measures which have… weakened the production base and the economy.” The comments came just a few days before representatives of Greece’s international creditors are to return to Athens for negotiations on the prior actions that Greek authorities must legislate to secure crucial rescue loans.

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Yeah, that’ll do the trick…

Greek Regulator Bans Short-Selling Of Bank Shares (Reuters)

The Greek securities regulator said on Wednesday it had banned short-selling of Greek bank shares to avoid pressure on prices ahead of the recapitalization of the sector. “The decision will come into effect starting Oct. 1 and will last until Nov. 9,” the Capital Markets Commission said in a statement. It affects the shares of the country’s four largest banks – National Bank, Alpha Bank, Eurobank and Piraeus Bank – and also the smaller Attica Bank.

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“At a deeper level, the EU’s actions are promoting political radicalization on both the political right and left with unknown consequences.”

How Greece Could Collapse The Eurozone (Satyajit Das)

The Greek debt affair has also harmed the European Project, potentially irreparably. The problem is not that the eurozone found itself facing serious economic challenges. The issue is its failure to anticipate the risk of such a crisis ever happening, the lack of contingency planning, and the eurozone’s inability to deal with the problem on a timely basis. The Greek crisis is now over five years old, with no signs of a permanent solution. There are only unpalatable choices. Some concessions will not solve the problem. Other eurozone members will have to continue to provide additional financing to Greece, further increasing their risk. Favorable treatment for the Greek government risks opening a Pandora’s Box of demands from other countries to relax austerity measures.

Demands for relaxation of budget deficit and debt level targets are likely from Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, and France. A write-down of debt would crystallize losses. It might threaten the governments of Spain, Portugal, Italy, Finland, the Netherlands, and Germany. If Greece leaves the euro, then the consequences for the eurozone are unclear. Should Greece prosper outside the single currency, it reduces the attraction of the eurozone for weaker members. Given the absence of painless solutions, it seems for the moment that neither Greece nor its creditors have any objectives other than avoiding having their fingerprints on the instrument that triggers default, the world’s largest sovereign debt restructuring or a breakup of the euro.

The approach of the EU has also undermined the European project. Major countries such as Germany have reacted to the inability to resolve the crisis by resorting to economic and political repression, entailing less, not more, flexibility, with tougher rules and stricter enforcement, including tighter supervision of national budgets. [..] The EU fails to recognize that its actions may destabilize Europe in unexpected ways. Greece has the potential to undermine Western security, creating a large corridor of vulnerability through the Balkans, the Levant, the Middle East, and Caucasus. While a member of the EU, Greece can veto sanctions reducing European power. Its actions or lack thereof can aggravate the serious refugee crisis confronting Europe. An embittered Greece, hostile to European partners and NATO, has caused alarm in the US. At a deeper level, the EU’s actions are promoting political radicalization on both the political right and left with unknown consequences.

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Age old threat.

Greek Shipowners Prepare to Weigh Anchor on Prospect of Higher Taxes (WSJ)

Many of Greece’s world-leading shipowners are actively exploring options to leave their home country, reacting to the prospect of sharply higher shipping taxes in the debt-ridden nation. Dominated by some 800 largely family-run companies that control almost a fifth of the global shipping fleet from their base at the main Greek port of Piraeus, the industry has long been a source of national pride. But at the behest of Greece’s international creditors, the newly re-elected Syriza-led government has reluctantly agreed to raise taxes on the long-protected sector. While Greek owners have agreed to voluntarily double until 2017 the amount they pay in tonnage tax-a fixed annual rate based on the size of each vessel-they are adamant on keeping their tax-free status on ship profits and money generated from ship sales.

Yet Greece’s creditors want taxes gradually to be applied on all shipping operations and are pushing for a permanent increase in the tonnage tax. Senior Greek government officials, who asked not to be named, said the finance ministry is trying to find alternative sources of income to avoid saddling owners with more taxes, but one said that “the exercise is proving very difficult.” Final decisions on the matter are expected by the end of October. Income-based shipping taxes, levied in countries such as the U.S., China and Japan, can raise much more revenue than tonnage taxes, levied in most European countries. An owner of a midsize vessel in Greece would pay a flat tonnage tax of $50,000 a year at the temporary double rate.

A comparable U.S. owner, depending on daily freight rates, might pay about $3.7 million in annual taxes, and a Japanese owner could pay $7 million. However, while European owners have to pay the tonnage tax every year regardless of profitability, U.S. and Japanese owners get substantial tax refunds if their vessels lose money. Many in the Greek shipping world say any increase in taxes on shipping operations would prompt a mass exodus of the country’s shipowners. Relatively low-tax global shipping centers such as Cyprus, London, Singapore and Vancouver are positioning themselves to benefit.

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Rising wages.

Iceland’s Next Collapse Is “Unavoidable,” Employers Union Warns (Bloomberg)

The head of Iceland’s main employers’ group says the nation is displaying some worrying signs. Wages are soaring much too fast and will ruin the economy if they continue unchecked, according to Thorsteinn Viglundsson, managing director of Business Iceland. “Another economic collapse is unavoidable, if we’re going to keep going down this path,” Viglundsson said in a phone interview in Reykjavik. Pay is set to rise about 30% through 2019 in many industries. Unions wanted increases as high as 50%, to compensate for years of moderate pay growth, but some were forced to settle for less after the government put the matter to an arbitration court. Icelanders, who work longer hours than their Nordic peers according to the OECD, are demanding a bigger share of the island’s economic recovery after eight years of belt-tightening.

Pay growth has barely kept pace with inflation, with real wages rising little more than 3% in the six years through 2014, statistics office figures show. Over the same period, real gross domestic product grew 29%. Viglundsson says wage growth above 25% through 2019 will have “very serious economic consequences.” “It will mean a surge in inflation, to which the central bank will respond by raising rates considerably,” he said. Iceland’s main policy rate is already above 6%, a developed-world record. “It will mean that, in the end, the krona will lose its value, like it has always done in the past under similar circumstances,” Viglundsson said.

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To bring democracy. And protect our freedom.

Obama Hands $1 Billion In Military Aid To Goverments Using Child Soldiers (CNN)

When the extremist group the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) abducts boys from Friday prayers at mosques or indoctrinates children as young as 10 to become fighters or suicide bombers, there is little the United States can do. But when recipients of U.S. military aid recruit children into their forces as soldiers, the United States has a lot of leverage. It is disappointing that the Obama administration has been reluctant to use it. This week, U.S. President Barack Obama is expected to make his annual announcement about the issue, on whether he will waive sanctions on military foreign aid under U.S. law for any of the eight governments currently on the State Department’s list for using child soldiers.

In 14 countries around the world, according to the United Nations, children are recruited and used in armed conflicts as informants, guards, porters, cooks, and often, as front-line armed combatants. In some, only non-state armed groups are responsible for the practice, but in others, the perpetrators are rebel forces and governments alike. In South Sudan, child recruitment spiked sharply last year, with estimates that 12,000 children were fighting with both government and non-state armed groups. In Yemen, where UNICEF has estimated that one-third of all fighters are under 18, all sides to the ongoing conflict, including the government, use child soldiers. Yet both governments have received millions of dollars in U.S. military assistance.

In 2008, Congress enacted a law based on two simple ideas: first, that U.S. tax dollars should not support the use of child soldiers, and second, that suspending U.S. military assistance could be a powerful incentive to prompt governments to end this reprehensible practice. The law, the Child Soldiers Prevention Act, took effect in 2010, restricting U.S. military support to governments using children in their armed forces. But the Obama administration’s implementation of the law has fallen far short of the law’s goals. Our analysis found that during the five years the law has been in effect, President Obama has invoked “national interest” waivers to authorize nearly $1 billion in military assistance and arms sales for countries that are still using child soldiers. In contrast, we found that only $35 million in military assistance and arms sales – a mere 4% of what was sanctionable under the law – was actually withheld from these abusive governments.

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Farrell may be on to something.

Millions Of Illegal Immigrants Will Overrun Trump’s ‘Beautiful Wall’ (Farrell)

Warning to the next president, to all future U.S. presidents: They’re coming. More illegal immigrants. More refugees. Millions more than conservatives fear are here already. Millions more coming, like Syrian refugees storming Europe. This warning is targeted specifically for a future President Donald Trump. You cannot stop them. Nobody can. They will overrun America, add trillions more debt. Brag all you want, this is one deal you will never, never negotiate successfully. Never win. Worse, you lose, we lose big.

Can’t win? No, not even if you’re bankrolled with unlimited funds, a blank-check from a GOP-controlled Congress and Treasury … not even if you win carte blanche clearance to build your “classy, beautiful” dream wall to your specs … build it extra high… superthick … not even if you staff it with thousands of well-armed special-ops soldiers … add new guard towers … patrolled by thousands of drones, sonar ships, nuclear subs … all to stop every illegal coming by aircraft, by boats, using battering rams, secretly entering through an ever-increasing vast underground network built by drug cartels … a near impenetrable system operating as an integrated high-tech network designed by our best minds to keep out the new flood of illegal immigrants that you so fear … it still won’t stop them.

Give it up you guys: Nobody can stop the coming tidal wave rising dead ahead. Not you, Mr. Next President, not Congress, nor any combination of our Armed Forces, FBI, ATF, CIA will ever stop the coming flood, a tsunami of illegals and refugees. Why? Because they’re escaping dying lands, doing what is natural, fighting, desperate, in survival mode, for themselves, their families, future generations, escaping climate-caused natural disasters, droughts, water and food shortages, starvation, genocide, pandemics, dust bowls, and so many more dark consequences of global warming climate change. Yes, all this is so obvious, so predictable. In the next few decades the same conditions that created the Syrian civil war between President Bashar al-Assad and his people will overwhelm the American southwest.

As climate change puts increasing pressure on the 160 million people in Mexico and Central America, millions of refugees and illegal immigrants will escape north into the United States, overrunning us by the end of this century. Of course, this human tsunami will not be understood by the clueless mind of America’s climate-science-denying GOP Congress held captive by Big Oil. Nor by the candidates in the GOP presidential debates. Worse, this would be a total fantasy to a GOP President Trump who’s sole obsession is a slogan “Make America Great Again” by building a “beautiful” wall to keep out illegal refugees. Except they’re all just making matters worse, delaying the inevitable collapse of America.

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Clean energy.

Farmers Driven From Homes ‘Like Pests’ As Asia Plans 500 Dams (Bloomberg)

Developing nations are in the middle of the biggest dam construction program in history to generate power, irrigate fields, store water and regulate flooding. Yet governments are finding it harder to move people, who have become less trusting of officials and more connected to information about the effects of the dams. Corruption and wrangles over payments have stalled projects from Indonesia to India for decades and frustrated governments are increasingly turning to the ultimate threat: Move, or we will flood you out. Jatigede is the latest example, and it is unlikely to be the last. Indonesia plans to build 65 dams in the next 4 years, 16 of which are under construction. India aims to erect about 230.

China is in the middle of a program to add at least 130 on rivers in the mountainous southwest and Tibetan plateau, including barriers across major rivers like the Mekong and Brahmaputra that flow into other countries. It is reported to have relocated people before inundating land. Like Jatigede, many are financed by Chinese banks and led by the nation s biggest dam builder, Sinohydro Corp. China is involved in constructing some 330 dams in 74 different countries, according to environmental lobbying group International Rivers, based in Berkeley, California. “Sending rising waters to flood out people like pests is barbaric”, said Professor Michael Cernea at the Brookings Institution. “Indonesia has the resources and know-how to resettle these people decently”.

“The relocation program is the responsibility of the government”, Sinohydro President Liang Jun said in an interview on Aug. 31 at the Jatigede dam. West Java governor Ahmad Heryawan said the dam will irrigate 90,000 hectares of land and provide water to Cirebon, a city of about 300,000 people on the northern coast of Java. At a ceremony on top of the dam on Aug. 31 to begin filling the reservoir, he acknowledged that not everyone had received compensation and that thousands remained in their homes. Those being relocated were “heroes of development, not victims”, he said. “We don t want them to suffer, we want to improve their welfare”. [..] Protests against dams have multiplied across Asia as activists mobilize residents and media against large projects and question their long-term benefits.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi plans about 200 hydropower projects on the mountainous rivers in northeast India, as well as a program of 30 large dams that would help link major rivers across the country. “We are considering approvals for about 20 to 30 hydro and about 15 irrigation dam projects at the moment,” said Ashwinkumar Pandya, chairman of India’s Central Water Commission, which gives technical and economic clearances for dams. “Dams are an important aspect of planning and they ensure that water and power requirements for the nation are met.” “There is not a single dam – not a single one – for which India has done proper rehabilitation of people,” said Himanshu Thakkar at South Asia Network on Dams, Rivers and People. “And typically, all of them have seen costs escalate and delays in building.”

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