Sep 022025
 


Unknown Mark Twain (center, white suit) and a kitten (brown fur, left of center) at Tuxedo Park 1907

 

Happy Labor Day, Scruffnecks! (Sundance)
Ukraine Does Not Need Security Guarantees, But Neutrality – Jeffrey Sachs (Sp.)
US & EU War Hawks Sacrificing Ukraine to Block Peace – Scott Ritter (Sp.)
Ukraine in NATO Would Mean Civil War – Yanukovich (RT)
Chancellor Merz Says He’s Now Planning for a Long War in Ukraine (CTH)
Claim of Russian GPS Blocking of Von der Leyen’s Plane False – Flightradar (RT)
US Would Become ‘Third World Nation’ Without Tariffs – Trump (RT)
“I Want The Answer”: Trump Demands Pfizer Prove mRNA Jabs Work (ZH)
Trump Admits Rushed COVID Vaccines May Have Been Disastrous (Salgado)
Even CNN Admits Trump Had Cause to Fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook (Margolis)
Back to School (James Howard Kunstler)
The Old World Order Was Buried In China (RT)
Muslim Official Tells Belgians To Leave Belgium (RT)
J.K. Rowling Completely Obliterated Her Critics With One Post (Margolis)
ChatGPT Faces Claims of Suicide, Defamation, and Even Murder (Turley)

 

 

Hegseth
https://twitter.com/BoLoudon/status/1962226074185785497

SCO
https://twitter.com/DD_Geopolitics/status/1962373017109180884
https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1962519096433541284

https://twitter.com/Real_RobN/status/1962197520110756118

 

 

 

 

I know, I know.

Running TAE, it is my fate
to always be a day late.

But I like Sundance’s optimism here.

Happy Labor Day, Scruffnecks! (Sundance)

Happy Labor Day…. and that has nothing to do with the color of your collar. Everything of great purpose comes from within, and from a loving God. As Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn famously said: “The simple step of a courageous individual is not to take part in the lie. One word of truth outweighs the world.” Yes, it’s Labor Day in America. We pause and celebrate work, productivity, problem solving, and the value of our workforce. A nation built on ingenuity – so long as we tend the flickering flame of liberty. So, to all my brothers and sisters who do not take part in the grand lies that surround us, THANK YOU! No other nation on earth was ever conceived on the principle of allowing people to manifest their own destiny, while keeping government out of their lives.

The vision, the premise and the purpose, was to allow you the freedom to determine your place in life; and even, at any time, change that determination and strike off in an entirely new direction. Our labor and aspirations would not be pre-determined by caste, tier, creed or social status; but rather by our personal vision for our own future. The right of self-determination. Labor Day is a time to reflect on the value of work; the great personal benefit of endeavors achieved; the pride in accomplishment -regardless of scale- amid this thing we call life; and all of these considerations have absolutely nothing, not-one-thing, to do with the money we assemble in the process. When we share the message, “live your best life”, it is not without purpose. Every moment that we allow a negative onslaught to deter us from living our dreams, is a moment those who oppose our nation view as us taking a knee. Do not allow this effort to succeed.

You might ask yourself how I can, one person, a flea looking into a furnace, retain an optimistic disposition while all around me seems chaotic and mad. That’s the point; it ‘seems’ chaotic and mad because it has been created to appear that way. There are more of us than them; they just control the systems that allow us to connect, share messages and recognize the scale of our assembly. We cannot comply our way out of tyranny. Every second that you live your life with thankfulness for the abundance within it; every moment that we CHOOSE to engage with fellowship; every day that we accept guidance from God, and every moment we cherish this time in our life is a moment we live in the spirit of our forefathers. It is a genuinely patriotic position to live honestly, without pretense.

All around us, in every tribe and region, there are people who need you to show them the strength you have. Strength of spirit. Strength of fellowship that you will not relent from expressing. Lead your children, your children’s children, and the children of your community with an unwavering and steadfast example. No matter what distractions are shouting from the loudspeakers we must withstand it; you must withstand it. We must find within ourselves purpose and joy. We cannot allow despair to be the status quo; and we cannot allow a generation to experience a world without joy. In this endeavor you can make a difference. If you do not control your thoughts, eventually your thoughts will control you. Our nation needs more people like you, right now. Don’t wait… engage life.

“Enjoy your achievements as well as your plans. Keep interested in your own career, however humble; it is a real possession in the changing fortunes of time. Exercise caution in your business affairs, for the world is full of trickery. But let this not blind you to what virtue there is; many persons strive for high ideals, and everywhere life is full of heroism. nBe yourself. Especially do not feign affection. Neither be cynical about love; for in the face of all aridity and disenchantment, it is as perennial as the grass. Take kindly the counsel of the years, gracefully surrendering the things of youth. Nurture strength of spirit to shield you in sudden misfortune. But do not distress yourself with dark imaginings. Many fears are born of fatigue and loneliness.” ~ Max Ehrmann, Desiderata.

You make a difference. When you hold open the door, you make a difference. When you choose to love, you make a difference. When you pray with purpose, you make a difference. When you show up, even when you are not sure what comes next, you make a difference. It is who you are that makes a difference to the people around you. Regardless of your chosen occupation or effort, do it well. Permit the outcome to showcase your standard. Be proud of yourself. Allow the method of your labor to express the value of who you are and celebrate the accomplishment. You matter! Thank you for you. Thank you for your fellowship and for your kindness. With warmest personal regards, Happy Labor Day!

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Security guarantees for Ukraine are a nonsense idea and not needed (which is why they talk about it so much). Or do you think Russia would allow a situation in which it can be attacked again?

Ukraine Does Not Need Security Guarantees, But Neutrality – Jeffrey Sachs (Sp.)

Security guarantees for Ukraine do not require a military presence from Europe or the United States, but rather a commitment to neutrality as outlined in the country’s original constitution, well-known US economist and director of the Center for Sustainable Development at Columbia University Jeffrey Sachs told Sputnik in an interview. “And in this sense, I think neutrality for Ukraine doesn’t need all sorts of fancy military guarantees. It doesn’t need European boots on the ground. It doesn’t need American airplanes flying overhead. It needs the clarity that Ukraine will be neutral, as Ukraine declared in its original Constitution when it declared independence,” Sachs said.

The interview was conducted ahead of the Eastern Economic Forum, which will take place in Vladivostok from September 3–6. The economist is going to participate in a session “UN Development Agenda Beyond 2030.” On August 19, US President Donald Trump said that the US may provide air support as part of security guarantees for Ukraine but rejected the idea of having boots on the ground. Russia has a negative attitude toward discussions in Europe about the possible presence of European troops on Ukrainian territory, adding that the advancement of NATO military infrastructure and the infiltration of this military infrastructure into Ukraine are one of the root causes of the ongoing conflict.

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“Soon they’ll be sending 18-year-olds to the front line. And when they do that, that’s it. Ukraine’s finished.. because you’ll have a bunch of women and you won’t have any men left..”

US & EU War Hawks Sacrificing Ukraine to Block Peace – Scott Ritter (Sp.)

Western warmongers are desperate to thwart US president Donald Trump’s efforts to improve ties with Russia, said ex-US Marine intelligence officer Scott Ritter. As part of their political game, the US and EU war hawks are prepared to literally sacrifice Ukraine, wiping out its “genetic pool,” said Scott Ritter.“Soon they’ll be sending 18-year-olds to the front line. And when they do that, that’s it. Ukraine’s finished… because you’ll have a bunch of women and you won’t have any men left,” he said.Since late last year, Ukraine has been negotiating plans with the United States to lower the mobilization age from 25 to 18 to address the gaping shortage of manpower, according to media reports.

Volodymyr Zelensky signed a law in April 2024 to lower the conscription age from 27 to 25, prompting a public outcry. The government said in August that it had no plans to drop the draft age lower. A Ukrainian lawmaker said last September that the army had banned recruiting citizens under 25, who previously had the “fit for limited military service” status. With massive losses, rising draft evasion, and desertions, Ukraine has resorted to draconian mobilization to fill the ranks. Nearly 9,500 convicts—including 100 women—have reportedly been drafted into the army as manpower runs dangerously low.

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Elected president Yanukovich fled to Russia in 2014. Not been seen since

“..he had “clearly and distinctly understood that this is a disaster for Ukraine” and a “road to nowhere.” “It is a direct path to civil war..”

Ukraine in NATO Would Mean Civil War – Yanukovich (RT)

Former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich has said he had always been a staunch opponent of Ukraine joining NATO, warning that such a move would have sparked a civil war. Yanukovich served as president from 2010 to 2014, when he was ousted in the Western-backed Maidan coup and forced to flee the country, seeking refuge in Russia. Shortly afterward, the Ukrainian parliament formally stripped him of his presidential title. The protests began after Yanukovich decided to suspend preparations for Ukraine’s signing of an association agreement with the EU, explaining that the deal would have imposed harsh economic conditions and included terms he deemed unacceptable.

Speaking to journalists on Monday, Yanukovich said he had always worked toward EU accession, which he described as a strategic goal of his presidency. “Indeed, I purposefully worked to bring Ukraine closer to the European Union and ultimately set the goal of Ukraine’s accession,” he said. However, in his words, Kiev’s Western European partners behaved condescendingly during the talks. “They showed no understanding of the complexity of Ukraine’s economic situation. Frankly, they displayed arrogance,” he added.

https://twitter.com/DD_Geopolitics/status/1962508241470214226

Yanukovich stressed that while he had been firmly committed to pursuing Ukraine’s EU integration, he had always rejected NATO membership. He said he had “clearly and distinctly understood that this is a disaster for Ukraine” and a “road to nowhere.” “It is a direct path to civil war,” he emphasized. After Yanukovich’s ouster, which Moscow condemned as illegal, the new authorities in Kiev began openly working toward NATO membership, an ambition that was encouraged by the US. Russia has said these moves were among the root causes of the current conflict and has demanded that Ukraine remain neutral and refrain from joining military blocs as a part of any peace settlement.

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“The issues around French politics are now too vast for the Ukraine effort to hide them.”

Merz, Macron and Tusk are all in Moldova to make sure the elections go “their” way. Because:

“..if PAS fails to win a majority, “things get very complicated because every other party is not as pro-European, and is much more committed to reconciliation or some sort of rapprochement with Russia.”

Chancellor Merz Says He’s Now Planning for a Long War in Ukraine (CTH)

Within Great Britain, Prime Minister Kier Starmer is in a hot mess. “Starmer faces populists both left and right, with Brexit veteran Nigel Farage’s Reform UK consistently ahead in the polls. Inflation has ticked up. Unpopular tax rises loom. Starmer’s backbenchers are nervous about planned welfare cuts and reforms for children with special needs. And migrants keep arriving on small boats across the English Channel.” In France, Emmanuel Macron is in the worst political shape of his tenuous career. Another no confidence manuever has backfired against the current French government. “In an Ifop poll conducted after [Prime Minister] Bayrou’s address, 63 percent of respondents said they were in favor of going back to the ballot box, with that figure getting to 86 percent among National Rally voters.” The issues around French politics are now too vast for the Ukraine effort to hide them.

Within Germany things are not much better. The economy is contracting, and Chancellor Merz is in the dubious position of cutting subsidy benefits in order to address the problem. “During Sunday’s interview Merz defended his coalition’s historic decision to loosen the debt brake on defense spending — made possible by an unexpected U-turn by Merz’s conservatives right after the election — and even went so far as to link it to NATO’s survival. “We were essentially able to preserve NATO with our decision,” he said.” Germans are very particular about their economic position. When the core of the industrial economy is threatened, the German people focus on nothing else. The German industrial economy is part of their EU identity; it is simply their priority. All things Ukraine become something ‘less than’, in the face of these economic challenges.

Subsequently, this so-called “coalition of the willing” is not very willing to advance the security interests of Ukraine against the background of their domestic politics which has suffered as a result of the distraction; enter U.S. President Donald Trump. President Trump has stepped back from trying to stimulate Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin to come to terms. In fact, President Trump has indicated they just may need to fight more, to ultimately get to a point where their interests are in a more desperate position. As noted by Trump, “maybe they have to fight a little longer. You know, just keep fighting. — stupidly, keep fighting.” A tactical retreat by President Trump is what the majority of the American people support.

A tactical retreat also allows Russian Federation President Putin to complete his larger goals and bring Zelenskyy to the point where he concedes defeat and requests a ceasefire. The withdrawal of U.S. support would mean, the “coalition of the willing” would need to stand stronger in the front of the security guarantee issue. Considering the domestic issues of the U.K, France and Germany, more forward leaning just doesn’t seem at all likely. Thus, German Chancellor Fredrich Merz now saying he views Ukraine as a long war.

“BERLIN — German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said he is mentally preparing for a long war in Ukraine — but wouldn’t be drawn on whether Berlin will deploy peacekeeping troops should there be a ceasefire. In a televised interview on Sunday, he also said that if he hadn’t decided to alter Germany’s debt rules to allow it to massively invest in defense, the NATO alliance would probably have disintegrated in June. “I’m mentally preparing myself for the fact that this war could drag on for a long time,” he told ZDF when asked if he was hopeful that a ceasefire could be reached next year. “We’re trying to end it as quickly as possible, but certainly not at the price of Ukraine’s capitulation.”

The U.K, France and Germany are not going to do more without President Trump forcefully requiring it. President Trump does not appear motivated to force the “coalition” to do anything. In fact, there is a solid argument that if everybody just did nothing, the Ukraine war would end sooner. Russia would win – ultimately, with less bloodshed. Europe and NATO can continue pretending in order to give the best impression to the bankers. Or the leaders of Europe and NATO could just tell the high-finance pretenders, they need to cut their losses – the pretense is over and fall back to their remaining pawn on the chessboard, Moldova.

“(AP) – […] France’s President Emmanuel Macron, Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz, and Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk arrived in the capital of the European Union-candidate country for talks with pro-Western Moldovan President Maia Sandu. […] Cristian Cantir, a Moldovan associate professor of international relations at Oakland University, told The Associated Press that “most Moldovans understand that the visit is essentially a show of support for Moldova’s pro-European path.”

“There really is no other kind of viable pro-European or pro-Western party,” he said, adding that if PAS fails to win a majority, “things get very complicated because every other party is not as pro-European, and is much more committed to reconciliation or some sort of rapprochement with Russia.” Given the nature of how tenuous the ‘coalition of the willing’ stands politically, if Maia Sandu’s PAS party loses the parliamentary elections, the EU/NATO political effort against Russia essentially collapses. Amazingly we are right back to where we were three years ago. WATCH MOLDOVA!

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Rumor all over Europe yesterday that Ursula’s GPS was jammed by Russia. EU press won’t report what Flightradar says. They’ll be busy with more Russophobia.

Claim of Russian GPS Blocking of Von der Leyen’s Plane False – Flightradar (RT)

Flight-tracking website Flightradar24 has refuted allegations made by several media outlets and EU officials that the plane of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was subjected to GPS signal jamming. The aircraft that carried the EU Commission chief to Bulgaria on Sunday showed good GPS signal quality along its entire route, the monitoring service wrote on X on Monday. The flight arrived only nine minutes later than scheduled, the service said, noting that some media reports erroneously claimed that “the aircraft was in a holding pattern for 1 hour.” “The aircraft’s transponder reported good GPS signal quality from take-off to landing,” it added.

The alleged GPS issues were first reported by the Financial Times, which cited unnamed sources who claimed the pilots experienced signal blackouts so severe that they had to use “paper maps” for landing. The sources also suggested Russia was to blame for the alleged incident. Reached for comment by the FT, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the reported allegations were untrue. The claims were made official on Monday. Both the EU and Bulgarian authorities pointed the finger at Moscow. “We can indeed confirm that there was GPS jamming, but the plane landed safely in Bulgaria. We have received information from the Bulgarian authorities that they suspect that this was due to blatant interference by Russia,” EU Commission spokeswoman Arianna Podesta told a press conference in Brussels.

The Bulgarian government also appeared to corroborate the claims the pilots had to rely on alternate navigation tools while landing at Plovdiv International Airport. “During the flight carrying European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen to Plovdiv, the satellite signal transmitting information to the plane’s GPS navigation system was neutralized,” the government said in a statement. “To ensure the flight’s safety, air control services immediately offered an alternative landing method using terrestrial navigation tools,” it added.

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“..we would become a Third World Nation, with no hope of GREATNESS again.”

US Would Become ‘Third World Nation’ Without Tariffs – Trump (RT)

US President Donald Trump has warned that America could became a “third world nation” if his tariffs are scrapped. He made the remarks after a federal appeals court declared most of them unlawful. Trump launched his tariff drive in April, accusing US trade partners of creating unfair trade imbalances and calling it a reciprocal response to secure better trade terms. Most country-specific rates ranging from 10% to 41% took effect on August 7. The policy has drawn criticism from US lawmakers over the potential damage to the economy. On Friday, the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit ruled that Trump misused his authority by imposing tariffs under an emergency-powers statute, saying only Congress can authorize these measures.

The court stopped short of canceling the tariffs, giving the administration until mid-October to appeal to the Supreme Court. Trump blasted the ruling, warning of dire consequences if it stands. “More than 15 Trillion Dollars will be invested in the USA, a RECORD. Much of this investment is because of Tariffs,” he wrote on Truth Social on Monday. “If a Radical Left Court is allowed to terminate these Tariffs, almost all of this investment, and much more, will be immediately cancelled! In many ways, we would become a Third World Nation, with no hope of GREATNESS again.” The court ruling covers two sets of tariffs: Broad “reciprocal” tariffs on most US trade partners, and tariffs on goods from Canada, China, and Mexico linked to drug trafficking claims.

The decision does not affect targeted tariffs, such as those on foreign steel, aluminum, and autos, as they were enacted under separate laws. Trump has argued that tariffs are good for the economy, presenting them as tools to secure better trade terms, revive manufacturing, and cut deficits. Economists, however, warn that the policy risks pushing the US into recession. Russia has not been targeted with tariffs due to the existing sanctions, but Trump has threatened higher tariffs on its trade partners if the Ukraine conflict is not resolved. Last month, he doubled tariffs on India to 50%, accusing it of aiding Moscow by buying Russian oil, and hinted at new measures against China.

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They lied to him. He doesn’t like that.

“I Want The Answer”: Trump Demands Pfizer Prove mRNA Jabs Work (ZH)

Late last month a CDC advisory committee launched a review into the “safety, effectiveness, and immunogenicity” of COVID-19 vaccines, as well as whether mRNA remains in the body longer than advertised. As part of the review, they will look at gaps in existing knowledge “relating to bio distribution, pharmacokinetics, and persistence of the spike protein, mRNA, and lipid nanoparticles to inform immunization recommendations,” the document states. In other words – they’ll be looking at whether the vaccine has ever worked, as well as harms it may cause. As ZeroHedge readers know, studies have found that the spike protein and mRNA in the vaccines persist for some time.

Days after the committee was announced, the Department of Health & Human Services announced that Susan Monarez, who championed mRNA shots for COVID-19, is “no longer director of the CDC” – after she “clashed with the secretary (Kennedy) over vaccine policy,” which ultimately led to her firing.

Meanwhile at least four other CDC officials resigned on Wednesday in a massive leadership shakeup at the agency: Dr. Debra Houry, the CDC’s chief medical officer; Dr. Demetre Daskalakis, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases; Dr. Daniel Jernigan, the director of the National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases; and Dr. Jennifer Layden, director of the Office of Public Health Data, Surveillance and Technology. As the leadership crisis at the CDC unfolds, President Trump issued a somewhat cryptic ‘truth’ – challenging Pfizer and other vaccine makers to make public the same ‘GREAT’ claims his administration was shown in order to justify operation Warp Speed.

https://twitter.com/sayerjigmi/status/1961641016366436495

“It is very important that the Drug Companies justify the success of their various Covid Drugs. Many people think they are a miracle that saved Millions of lives. Others disagree!” Trump wrote. “I have been shown information from Pfizer, and others, that is extraordinary, but they never seem to show those results to the public. Why not???” the ‘truth’ continues. “With CDC being ripped apart over this question, I want the answer, and I want it NOW.” According to Trump, drugmakers need to “clear up this MESS,” adding that they “let everyone rip themselves apart, including Bobby Kennedy Jr. and CDC, trying to figure out the success or failure of the Drug Companies Covid work.”

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“They show me GREAT numbers and results, but they don’t seem to be showing them to many others..”

Trump Admits Rushed COVID Vaccines May Have Been Disastrous (Salgado)

In a major admission that marks a significant victory for those who brought attention to the many risks and injuries associated with the rushed COVID-19 vaccines, Donald Trump is finally admitting that Operation Warp Speed might not have been as brilliant as he has claimed for years. It takes humility to admit a major mistake, and now he is indeed prioritizing accountability and scientific reality in supporting an investigation into the project to rush COVID vaccines to the public toward the end of his first term in office. As the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. pulled emergency authorizations for and announced the need for more studies on the COVID-19 vaccines, Trump is standing by this effort.

Trump posted on Truth Social Monday, “It is very important that the Drug Companies justify the success of their various Covid Drugs. Many people think they are a miracle that saved Millions of lives. Others disagree!” He referred to the series of resignations at the CDC, which protested reforms, particularly those involving COVID-19 vaccine policy. “With CDC being ripped apart over this question, I want the answer, and I want it NOW. I have been shown information from Pfizer, and others, that is extraordinary, but they never seem to show those results to the public. Why not???” Indeed, a Pfizer executive admitted to the European Parliament in 2022 that her company had not tested its COVID-19 vaccine for efficacy. The president continued, “They go off to the next ‘hunt’ and let everyone rip themselves apart, including Bobby Kennedy Jr. and CDC, trying to figure out the success or failure of the Drug Companies Covid work.

“They show me GREAT numbers and results, but they don’t seem to be showing them to many others. I want them to show them NOW, to CDC and the public, and clear up this MESS, one way or the other!!!” And then came the big admission: “I hope OPERATION WARP SPEED was as ‘BRILLIANT’ as many say it was. If not, we all want to know about it, and why??? Thank you for your attention to this very important matter!” On August 27, Kennedy announced that he had revoked the emergency use authorizations for the COVID-19 vaccines, which have certainly long outlived any possible justification. This does not mean the vaccines are not available; however, Kennedy clarified that health authorities will no longer indiscriminately recommend them for all ages and that further studies on their safety and efficacy are necessary. He also noted that the Biden administration had misused the authorizations to justify its problematic COVID-19 vaccine mandates.

Many studies and datasets have emerged in the last few years illustrating the potential and real harms of the COVID-19 vaccines. For instance, a study that Florida Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo co-authored this year found higher all-cause and heart-related deaths among Floridians who received the Pfizer shots. In 2023, Ladapo confirmed similar findings based on Florida data and a Swiss study. Another study, published earlier this year in a medical journal, found that COVID boosters were not effective in preventing infection, hospitalization, or death. This apparently aligned with the results in a 2022 research paper showing that the vaccinated were more likely to contract severe COVID-19. Americans deserve medical objectivity and accountability.

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“Look, when you do a mortgage, there’s all sorts of paperwork flying in terms, and maybe you can get confused or lost. I don’t know if you’re going to buy that from Lisa Cook.”

Even CNN Admits Trump Had Cause to Fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook (Margolis)

When President Trump fired Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook last month, the left erupted in outrage. Rep. Maxine Waters even suggested that Trump’s action could warrant removal from office under the 25th Amendment. But even CNN’s top legal analyst, Elie Honig, has poured cold water on the hysteria, making an ironclad case that Trump had clear cause to take action. “So, two things appear to be true at the same time,” Honig explained. “One, it seems quite clear that Donald Trump and Bill Pulte, who is the head of this housing finance agency, have targeted Lisa Cook. They want to remove her from the Fed because they don’t like what the Fed is doing on interest rates. That seems quite clear from the public statements of Donald Trump and Bill Pulte.” Honig, however, quickly pivoted to the more troubling issues surrounding Cook herself.

“It also is true that there are some suspicious activity here that’s really problematic by Lisa Cook,” he said, before breaking down the alleged mortgage misconduct. According to Honig, Cook purchased three properties in rapid succession under highly questionable circumstances. “Let me just sort of try to bottom line it,” Honig said. “There’s three properties, okay. Within a two-week stretch, she purchases, she gets a mortgage on a place in Michigan and says that’s her principal residence. Two weeks later, she gets a mortgage on a place in Atlanta in Georgia and says that’s her primary residence. And now there’s a third place in Cambridge that she said was her secondary residence, but she’s actually renting it out.” Why does this matter? Honig explained that claiming multiple properties as primary residences can yield enormous financial benefits. “Because you get better interest rates. Because you get better tax benefits, that can be worth tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars,” he said.

Even more striking, Honig noted that Cook’s legal team has so far failed to provide any plausible explanation for these discrepancies. “Thus far, and I find this really notable, in the briefs that have been submitted by Lisa Cook lawyers… she was the plaintiff here. She filed the opening brief, no explanation of what she did. What—how this happened,” Honig said. While her lawyers hinted it might have been a clerical error, Honig was skeptical. “Today in court, Abbe Lowell—very good lawyer—again, no explanation of how this happened and the claim that this might be clerical error or just a mistake, that’s not going to fly because Lisa Cook is one of the most established, accomplished financial and economic experts in this country,” he explained. “This is not just like any old person. Look, when you do a mortgage, there’s all sorts of paperwork flying in terms, and maybe you can get confused or lost. I don’t know if you’re going to buy that from Lisa Cook.”

Honig’s assessment essentially gives Trump the benefit of the doubt when it comes to “cause” for firing. “But the bottom line question … is who has to show what here? I think that the allegations on their face could be enough for a judge to say, ‘Look, I’m going to defer to the president on cause,’” he concluded. This analysis is significant because it exposes the hollow theatrics of Democrats claiming that Trump acted recklessly or unlawfully. Even CNN’s own legal expert acknowledges that the president may have acted well within his authority, given the serious questions surrounding Cook’s financial conduct. The left painted the firing as a political purge, but it was plainly a legitimate use of presidential authority—so much so that even CNN couldn’t deny it. For a party and media obsessed with procedure and propriety, Honig’s comments are a sharp reminder: facts matter more than outrage.

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“We are living in what I call the 3rd Arc of American history, a period as consequential as the American Revolution and the U.S. Civil War.” —Gen. Michael Flynn

Back to School (James Howard Kunstler)

Yellowed leaves were already dropping here in August with the lack of rain and tomatoes won’t turn red when the air hits the mid-forties at dawn. Summer is trying hard to end, though technically there’s almost a month left. This is the real new year, of course, not the noisy one in January with all the drunken commotion and confetti. Tomorrow, it’s back to school, back to the job, the grind, the responsibilities, the worry, the rage, the hope, the yearning, as we gyre toward cold and fire. Enjoy ye burgers and hot dogs while ye can this Labor Day.

Anyway, the geniuses of Silicon Valley are attempting to end labor, at least any labor of the mind. A-I is coming for your job, ye middle managers, ye info manipulators, ye engineers, copy-writers, clerks, and numbers-crunchers, coming for whatever remains of the American bourgeoise. I’m telling you now: A-I will be a huge disappointment. Not only will it wreck the scaffold of our social order but, after it makes everything stupid — even worse than today — it will hallucinate so badly that anything it touches will become crazier than the Democratic Party.

That’s not a hard goal to reach either, with literacy at about what used to be age-eight-level for over half the US population. In such a milieu, gnostic communism is sure to flourish. The immiseration of all becomes the greatest good for the greatest number. We’re already halfway there — though it is a pretty sure thing that the story will turn sharply. It’s not for nothing that we call this moment in history a “fourth turning.”

One turning point might lie directly ahead. You are now in the season of financial fiascos, and boy-oh-boy are we ever set up for a humdinger. Are you following the money-bloggers? Those boys and girls are staring into the abyss staring back at them, with their hair on fire and their eyes bugging out. Just about everything is unreal and out of whack: equity markets, bond rollovers, the fun-house of shadow banking, the value of collateral (if it’s even there), the fate of currencies, perhaps even the fate of nations. France, for instance, is chattering about an imminent IMF bailout. Well, if that one goes, what do you think happens in Germany, Britain, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Belgium . . . Western Civ, that is?

The cliché these days is that looming financial chaos and potential economic collapse is what’s driving the EU countries to all their loose war-talk. As if. . . as if they were even marginally capable of prosecuting any sort of war except the war against their own citizens currently underway — which requires only bureaucrats declaring new restrictions on liberty, not missiles, drones, bombs, bullets, and live human troops and, most of all, some comprehensible reason to fight.

Paranoia about Russia seeking to invade Western Europe is not a comprehensible reason to launch a war against Russia — because it’s just paranoia, political crazy, in the absence of any rational aspiration in current European governance. The Germans have tried “green” energy planning, shutting down their nuclear power plant fleet, applauding the destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines. Where did that get them? I will tell you: it got them to a crashing standard-of-living. It got them to their current (maybe not-for-long) chancellor Friedrich Merz telling them last week to wave auf nimmer wiedersehen to their social welfare system, you know: cheap, subsidized medical care, free college, six-week vacations, cushy pensions. (And, meanwhile, do you mind if we spend whatever’s left of your taxes on free stuff for the hordes of third-world savages we stupidly imported into the country?)

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They’re meeting for 4 days. The world won’t be the same.

The Old World Order Was Buried In China (RT)

The latest gathering of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Tianjin looks at first like another summit – handshakes, family portraits, scripted statements. But the meeting on August 31–September 1 is more than diplomatic theater: it is another marker of the end of the unipolar era dominated by the United States, and the rise of a multipolar system centered on Asia, Eurasia, and the Global South. At the table were Chinese President Xi Jinping, his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi – together representing more than a third of humanity and 3 of largest countries on Earth. Xi unveiled a broad Global Governance Initiative, including a proposed SCO development bank, cooperation on artificial intelligence, and financial support for developing nations.

Putin described the SCO as “a vehicle for genuine multilateralism” and called for a Eurasian security model beyond Western control. Modi’s presence – his first visit to China in years – and the powerful optics around his meeting with Putin, signaled that India is willing to be seen as part of this emerging order. What just happened (and why it’s bigger than a photo-op): The pitch: Xi is promoting an order that “democratizes” global governance and reduces dependence on US-centric finance (think: less dollar gravity, more regional institutions). Putin called the SCO a vehicle for “genuine multilateralism” and Eurasian security. By calling China a partner rather than a rival, Modi signaled New Delhi won’t be locked into Washington’s anti-China agenda. The audience: More than 20 non-Western leaders were in the room, with United Nations (UN) Secretary-General António Guterres endorsing the event organisation – not a club meeting in the shadows, but a UN-centered frame at a China-led forum.

Translation: “We want the UN Charter back – not someone else’s in-house rules” Beijing’s line is blunt: reject Cold War blocs and restore the UN system as the only universal legal baseline. That’s a direct rebuke to the post-1991 “rules-based international order”, drafted in Washington or Brussels and enforced selectively. Examples are not hard to find. The 1999 NATO bombing of Yugoslavia went ahead without a UN mandate, justified under the “responsibility to protect.” The 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq was launched despite the absence of Security Council approval – a war later admitted even by Western officials to have been based on false premises. In 2011, a UN resolution authorizing a no-fly zone over Libya was used by NATO to pursue outright regime change, leaving behind a failed state and opening a corridor of misery into the heart of Western Europe.

For China, Russia and many Global South states, these episodes proved that the “rules-based order” was never about universal law but about Western discretion. The insistence in Tianjin that the UN Charter be restored as the only legitimate framework is meant to flip the script: to argue that the SCO, BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and new members Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates, plus Indonesia), and their partners are defending the actual rules of international law, while the West substitutes ad hoc coalitions and shifting standards for its own convenience.

Both Xi and Putin drove the point home, but in different registers. Xi’s line: He denounced “hegemonism and bullying behavior” and called for a “democratization of global governance,” stressing that the SCO should serve as a model of true multilateralism anchored in the UN and the World Trade Organization (WTO), not in ad hoc “rules” devised by a few Western capitals. Putin’s line: He went further, charging that the United States and its allies were directly responsible for the conflict escalation in Ukraine, and arguing that the SCO offers a framework for a genuine Eurasian security order – one not dictated by NATO or Western-imposed standards.

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“The former acting mayor of Brussels’ Molenbeek district insists her remarks were only directed at xenophobic people.”

Muslim Official Tells Belgians To Leave Belgium (RT)

A Belgian official has told critics of her Muslim headscarf to “get out” of the country, according a video circulating online. Saliha Raiss, a city council member for the social-democratic Vooruit party, made the controversial remarks during a municipal council session in Brussels’ Molenbeek district last Wednesday. “If people wearing headscarves bother you so much, if you don’t want to see us anymore, move… Go somewhere else, get out!” Raiss is heard saying in the clip. The footage, posted on X by Georges-Louis Bouchez, leader of the Reformist Movement (MR), quickly went viral and made headlines. In the post, Bouchez accused Raiss of racism and “imposing a new cultural norm” by attacking those who oppose religious symbols in the administration. Elon Musk reposted the clip with the caption: “Belgians must leave Belgium!? This is insane.”

Belgian media came to Raiss’ defense, claiming the words had been taken out of context. RTL Info reported the remarks came during a debate over a Facebook post on the MP party page criticizing the leaders of Molenbeek. The post drew anti-Muslim comments aimed at Raiss, then acting mayor. In the full video, she condemned MR for not deleting the post, calling them “deplorable and disgusting” and accusing the party of “condoning racism. Commenting on the incident on Monday, Raiss stood by her words and insisted they were not aimed at Belgians in general, only at those making racist comments.

“I don’t regret it at all. My comments were taken out of context … I was targeting racist and xenophobic people. In no way did I make remarks against all the citizens of our beautiful town and country,” she told RTL. Vooruit party leader Conner Rousseau defended Raiss, saying she spoke in frustration as she often has to deal with racist remarks due to being Muslim, and noting that “what’s being made of that statement now by the MR and the far-right Musk is simply fake and false.” Raiss said she is considering filing a slander complaint against Bouchez, accusing him of spreading “lies” with a “doctored” video.

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Leave her alone. She created an entire world of her own that well over a billion became witness to. That’s about as close to God as you can get.

J.K. Rowling Completely Obliterated Her Critics With One Post (Margolis)

Chris Columbus, director of the first two Harry Potter films, has declared that a reunion of the original cast is “never going to happen,” blaming J.K. Rowling’s controversial views on transgender issues. Columbus described the situation as “so complicated with all the political stuff,” noting that actors like Daniel Radcliffe and Emma Watson have publicly rejected Rowling’s stance, making any reunion impossible. Rowling fired back on X with a lengthy post, framing her response as a direct challenge to her critics and pushing back against what she described as a persistent mischaracterization of her beliefs. “As another man who once worked with me declares himself saddened by my beliefs on gender and sex, I thought it might be useful to compile a list for handy reference,” Rowling wrote. She then laid out a series of questions, asking which of her positions could possibly make actors and directors so upset.

She asked whether it was her belief “that women and girls should have their own public changing rooms and bathrooms,” or that “women should retain female-only rape crisis centres,” and “that men don’t belong in women’s sport.” Rowling also highlighted her stance on incarcerated women, asserting that “female prisoners shouldn’t be incarcerated with violent men and male sex offenders,” and her view that “women should remain a protected class in law, because they have sex-specific needs and issues.”

Rowling continued by emphasizing the importance of language reflecting reality, noting “that language should reflect reality rather than ideological jargon, especially in a medical context,” and defended women against harassment or persecution, writing that “women shouldn’t be harassed, persecuted or fired for refusing to pretend humans can change sex” and “women should not be threatened with violence and rape when they assert their rights.” She also stressed the broader societal principle of free expression, declaring that “freedom of speech and belief are essential to a pluralistic democratic society.” Rowling then turned to the treatment of minors, particularly those who are “gay, autistic and trauma-experienced,” insisting they “should be given mental health support instead of irreversible surgeries and drug treatments on non-existent evidence of benefit.”

The author also addressed LGBTQ issues, saying that “gay people shouldn’t be pressured to include the opposite sex in their dating pools, nor should they be smeared as ‘genital fetishists’ when they don’t,” and criticized certain male cross-dressers exploiting gender ideology: “cross-dressing heterosexual male fetishists aren’t actually oppressed, but having the time of their lives piggybacking off gender identity ideology.” Finally, Rowling struck at the broader political consequences of these ideas, asserting that “said ideology, and the privileged, blinkered fools pushing it because they suffer zero consequences themselves, have done more damage to the political left’s credibility than Trump and Farage could have achieved in a century.”

She’s right. Chris Columbus and the parade of Hollywood elites rushing to condemn Rowling reveal less about her supposedly “controversial views” and more about their own cowardice. They aren’t guided by principle—they’re driven by fear: fear of social media mobs, fear of losing roles, fear of being canceled. Columbus, Radcliffe, Watson, and the rest have chosen the path of convenience over courage, prioritizing their reputations over common sense, fairness, and even basic reality. Rowling’s positions—protecting women’s spaces, defending free speech, supporting vulnerable minors, and calling out ideological exploitation—are neither radical nor hateful. Yet, in an era where ideological conformity is more important than truth, she is vilified simply for speaking the truth. The real scandal isn’t Rowling’s beliefs; it’s the craven complicity of those too timid to defend reason, morality, and decency.

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Dark.

ChatGPT Faces Claims of Suicide, Defamation, and Even Murder (Turley)

“I know what you’re asking, and I won’t look away from it.” Those final words to a California teenager about to commit suicide were not from some manipulative friend in high school or sadistic voyeur on the Internet. Adam Raine, 16, was speaking to ChatGPT, an AI system that has replaced human contacts in fields ranging from academia to business to media. The exchange between Raine and the AI is part of the court record in a potentially groundbreaking case against OpenAI, the company that operates ChatGPT. It is only the latest lawsuit against the corporate giant run by billionaire Sam Altman. In 2017, Michele Carter was convicted of involuntary manslaughter after she urged her friend, Conrad Roy, to go through with his planned suicide: “You need to do it, Conrad… All you have to do is turn the generator on and you will be free and happy.”

The question is whether, if Michele were named Grok (another AI system), there would also be some form of liability. OpenAI stands accused of an arguably more serious act in supplying a virtual companion who effectively enabled a suicidal teen — with lethal consequences. At issue is the liability of companies in using such virtual employees in dispensing information or advice. If a human employee of OpenAI negligently gave harmful information or counseling to a troubled teen, there would be little debate that the company could be sued for the negligence of its employee. As AI replaces humans, these companies should be held accountable for their virtual agents. In a response to the lawsuit, OpenAI insists that “ChatGPT is trained to direct people to seek professional help” but “there have been moments where our systems did not behave as intended in sensitive situations.”

Of course, when the company “trains” an AI agent poorly and that agent does “not behave as intended,” it sounds like a conventional tort that should be subject to liability. OpenAI is facing other potential litigation over these “poorly trained” AI agents. Writer Laura Reiley wrote an essay about how her daughter, Sophie, confided in ChatGPT before taking her own life. It sounded strikingly familiar to the Raines case: “AI catered to Sophie’s impulse to hide the worst, to pretend she was doing better than she was, to shield everyone from her full agony.” While OpenAI maintains that it is not running a suicide assistance line, victims claim that it is far worse than that: Its AI systems seem to actively assist in suicides. In the Raines case, the family claims that the system advised the teen how to hide the bruises from prior attempts from his parents and even told him if it could spot any telltale marks.

The company is also accused of fueling the mental illness of a disturbed former Yahoo executive, Stein-Erik Soelberg, 56, who expressed paranoid obsessions about his mother. He befriended ChatGPT, which he called “Bobby,” a virtual companion who is accused of fueling his paranoia for months until he killed his mother and then himself. ChatGPT is even accused of coaching Soelberg on how to deceive his 83-year-old mother before he killed her. In one message, ChatGPT allegedly told Soelberg, “Erik, you’re not crazy. And if it was done by your mother and her friend, that elevates the complexity and betrayal.” After his mother became angry over his turning off a printer, ChatGPT took his side and told him her response was “disproportionate and aligned with someone protecting a surveillance asset.” At one point, ChatGPT even helped Soelberg analyze a Chinese food receipt and claimed it contained “symbols” representing his mother and a demon.

As a company, OpenAI can show little more empathy than its AI creations. When confronted with mistakes, it can sound as responsive as HAL 9000 in “2001: A Space Odyssey,” simply saying “I’m sorry, Dave. I’m afraid I can’t do that.” When the system is not allegedly fueling suicides, it seems to be spreading defamation. Previously, I was one of those defamed by ChatGPT when it reported that I was accused of sexually assaulting a law student on a field trip to Alaska as a Georgetown faculty member. It did not matter that I had never taught at Georgetown, never taken law students on field trips, and had never been accused of any sexual harassment or assault. ChatGPT hallucinated and reported the false story about me as fact. I was not alone. Harvard Professor Jonathan Zittrain, CNBC anchor David Faber, Australian mayor Brian Hood, English professor David Mayer, and others were also defamed.

OpenAI brushed off media inquiries on the false story and has never contacted me, let alone apologized for the defamation. Instead, it ghosted me. To this day, if someone asks ChatGPT about Jonathan Turley, the system says it has no information or refuses to respond. Recent media calls about the ghosting went unanswered. OpenAI does not have to respond. The company made the problem disappear by disappearing the victim. The company can ghost people and refuse to respond because there is little legal deterrent. There is no tort for AI failing to acknowledge or recognize someone that they decide to digitally erase. That is why these lawsuits are so important. The alleged negligence and arrogance of OpenAI will only get worse in the absence of legal and congressional action. As these companies wipe out jobs for millions, it cannot be allowed to treat humans as mere fodder or digestives for its virtual workforce.

Read more …

 

 

 

 

Wind

Pallas

Throw
https://twitter.com/buitengebieden/status/1962522962445140258

Mare

Color

Nosey

 

 

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Sep 032016
 
 September 3, 2016  Posted by at 9:31 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , ,  1 Response »


Russell Lee Street scene. Spencer, Iowa 1936

This Labor Day, Let’s Acknowledge Why Our Job-Creation Machine Is Broken (MW)
US Factory Orders Tumble For Longest Streak In History (ZH)
Number Of Credit-Crimped US Companies Rises to 2009 Level, S&P Says (BBG)
US Exchanges Trade Fewest Stocks In 32 Years (ZH)
US Economy May Need Much Higher Interest Rates: Fed’s Lacker (R.)
US Economic Misery Finds Company, Just Not In a Rate Hike (BBG)
ECB Throws Twelfth Zero at Inflation (BBG)
Any ECB Move Into Stocks Unlikely To Be Plain Sailing (R.)
Retailers Seek US Government Help With Shipping Crisis (WSJ)
Tesla’s Cash Crunch Worse Than You Think (Fortune)
Apartment Correction To Cause Australia-Wide Recession (SMH)
Starbucks, Amazon Pay Less Tax Than A Sausage Stand, Austria Says (R.)
Antibacterial Soaps Banned In US Amid Claims They Do ‘More Harm Than Good’ (G.)

 

 

The inbuilt and inevitable downfall of our formerly ‘rich economies’ in a nutshell: “Companies do not exist to create jobs. You don’t get rewarded for creating jobs..”

This Labor Day, Let’s Acknowledge Why Our Job-Creation Machine Is Broken (MW)

It’s Labor Day weekend, and despite unemployment under 5% and nearly 15 million private-sector jobs created since February 2010, nobody’s celebrating. Workforce participation is stuck near historic lows, six million people are part-timers but want to work full time, and wage growth remains subdued. Both presidential candidates have talked a good game about jobs and the economy, but neither addresses the real problem. The U.S. job-creation machine—once the envy of the world—is broken, because American corporations cannot create steady, well-paying jobs here in the USA while also providing maximal returns to their investors, who are really in charge. So says Gerald Davis, a professor at the University of Michigan’s Ross School of Business, who has studied these issues for years.

A short piece he wrote late last year for Brookings and a new book, “The Vanishing American Corporation,” trace the big changes in American corporations from the job-rich giants of the post-World War II era to job killers now, because the mission of the corporation has changed radically. Corporations’ new, exclusive emphasis on shareholder value—enforced by executive-compensation packages in which equity comprised 62.2% of S&P 500 CEOs’ total compensation in 2015, according to Equilar—has pushed top executives to replace humans with robots, send jobs overseas or bring in lower-paid immigrants to do them here, hire part-time or temporary workers (or glorified day laborers and Uber “contractors”) instead of full-time ones, and lay off thousands of employees even when profits are soaring.

Cutting labor costs boosts earnings, which tends to push stock prices (and executive compensation) higher, and frees up cash for more “important” things like dividends or share buybacks. As of March, S&P 500 companies had bought back more than $2 trillion in stock over the last five years, making buybacks the biggest source of demand for stocks since 2009, HSBC estimated. That makes big pension funds and “activist” investors like Carl Icahn happy, but it’s bad news for the millions of Americans who still yearn for well-paying middle-class jobs that offer career advancement, decent health-care coverage, and retirement security. “Under our current conditions, creating shareholder value and creating good jobs are largely incompatible,” Davis wrote in his Brookings piece. “Corporations are ‘job creators’ only as a last resort.” “Companies do not exist to create jobs. You don’t get rewarded for creating jobs..”

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Hollowing out.

US Factory Orders Tumble For Longest Streak In History (ZH)

21 Months… US Factory Orders have decline year-over-year every month since October 2014 (the end of QE3). This is the longest period of decline in US history (since 1956) and has always indicated the US economy is in recession… While headlines will crow of 1.9% MoM gain (which missed expectations of a 2.0% rise), the trend is simply ugly: Year-over-year Factory Orders fell 3.5%. As Bloomberg also notes, there’s one key takeaway from the Commerce Department’s report Friday on U.S. factory orders. The value of unfilled orders dropped in July to the lowest level in two years, indicating producers are having an easier time meeting demand.

With soft sales, factories have little reason to add as many workers to their payrolls and may find it difficult to raise prices. Employment in manufacturing dropped 14,000 in August, the most in three months, another report from the Labor Department showed Friday. • Unfilled orders to all manufacturers fell 0.1% to $1.13 trillion, the lowest since June 2014, after a 0.9% slump. • Unfilled orders have increased just once since November. • Total factory orders rose 1.9% in July after a 1.8% drop. Just another WTF chart to ignore.

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The whole economy turns to junk.

Number Of Credit-Crimped US Companies Rises to 2009 Level, S&P Says (BBG)

You’d have to go back to the months following the financial crisis to find so many companies facing potentially ruinous debt problems. That’s according to the latest tally by S&P Global Ratings of “weakest link” issuers. S&P counted 251 with ratings at the low end of junk status and a negative outlook, the most since October 2009, when the total was 264. The issuers collectively have about $359 billion of debt outstanding, led by energy companies, according to S&P’s Sept. 1 report. “Weakest links maintain an important role as potential default indicators,” Diane Vazza, S&P’s head of global fixed income research, said in the report.

They’re almost 10 times more likely to miss payments than ordinary speculative-grade issuers, Vazza wrote, adding that 71 of 100 companies that defaulted this year had been previously tagged as weakest links. The oil and gas sector contributed 62 issuers, or about 25% of the total, as stress on commodities markets continues. Eight of the August additions were from that industry, including Chesapeake Energy and Hornbeck Offshore Services. Financial institutions followed with 34 issuers, or 14%. Other newcomers included Tesla Motors, Elon Musk’s cash-strapped electric-car maker, and Intelsat SA, the satellite operator that proposed a private bond exchange offer, which S&P labeled “a distressed restructuring and tantamount to default.”

S&P assembled the list based on the number of borrowers rated B- or lower with either negative outlooks or negative implications on Credit Watch that indicate a strong possibility of further downgrades. The number hit its record high of 300 issuers in April 2009. The U.S. speculative-grade corporate default rate grew to 4.8% in August after seven defaults, and is expected to reach 5.6% by June 2017, S&P said in a separate report. The U.S. speculative-grade default rate for energy issuers is 21.7% as of July 31, Vazza said.

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The power of buybacks. “..the American economy has transformed from a system of value creation to one of value extraction.”

US Exchanges Trade Fewest Stocks In 32 Years (ZH)

The number of common stocks traded on major U.S. exchanges are the fewest in three decades. As CNBC reports, “Currently, there are just 3,267 stocks in the University of Chicago’s CRSP data, and this is the lowest since 1984,” wrote longtime Jefferies equity strategist Steven DeSanctis. What’s behind this phenomenon? DeSanctis explains: “Between the lack of IPO activity, the pickup of M&A, and buybacks, the U.S. equity world is becoming smaller and smaller, and this could be one of many reasons why active managers are lagging behind their indexes. Companies may not want to come public due to the additional cost of Sarbanes-Oxley or the fact that the private market has become a bigger source of financing than it has been in the past.”

So whether it’s the total number of stocks or the amount of shares for each company outstanding, the stock market is shrinking. Or as Dark Bid’s Daniel Drew previously noted, The Stock Market Is Disappearing In One Giant Leveraged Buyout It’s easy to find critics and doomsayers who predict that the next stock market crash is just around the corner. They could be right, but another possibility is that the stock market itself will disappear entirely. Anyone who is familiar with mergers and acquisitions knows what happens when a company is being slowly acquired. The price climbs higher, slowly yet relentlessly. Liquidity evaporates as offers are lifted. If the price moves up too quickly, buy programs are canceled. The buyer waits until the froth dies down a little before resuming purchases.

Eventually, the bids reappear, and the process continues. Once the buyer acquires 5% of the company, a legal requirement is triggered: the SEC requires the buyer to file Schedule 13D, otherwise known as a “beneficial ownership report.” Once this report is filed, everyone can see the buyer, and the stock price will usually jump. This same process has been underway in the stock market over the last 6 years. The market is up well over 200%. Liquidity has evaporated in the S&P 500 futures market, and the central banks themselves are buying S&P 500 futures. Companies are spending nearly all of their profits on stock buybacks. All of this activity harms employees. William Lazonick discussed the negative effects in a Harvard Business Review article called “Profits Without Prosperity.” According to Lazonick, the American economy has transformed from a system of value creation to one of value extraction.

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Please do it before the election.

US Economy May Need Much Higher Interest Rates: Fed’s Lacker (R.)

The U.S. economy appears strong enough to warrant significantly higher interest rates, Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker said on Friday. Lacker, who is not a voting member of the U.S. central bank’s rate-setting committee this year, said he still favors raising rates sooner than later and that the Fed’s last policy meeting in July would have been a “good time” to tighten policy. Speaking to a group of economists in Richmond, Lacker argued that a range of economic analysis suggests the Fed’s benchmark overnight interest rate – the federal funds rate – is currently too low. “It appears that the funds rate should be significantly higher than it is now,” he said in the speech. He made his comments after the U.S. government reported a hiring slowdown in August that could effectively rule out a rate increase later this month.

While Lacker is not due to have a vote on policy until 2018, he does participate in discussions on interest rates. The Fed has appeared sharply divided between policymakers who favor rate increases soon and those who urge more caution. Those favoring caution appeared to get a boost on Friday when a report showed 150,000 U.S. jobs were created last month, fewer than expected. But Lacker said the weaker pace of hiring still left the job market on a strengthening path and the case for higher rates would only grow stronger unless job growth slowed “significantly in the months ahead.” He suggested there were increased risks in waiting to raise rates. “The way the data is playing out I think the longer we wait there is a material increase in risks that we run,” Lacker told reporters after his speech.

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Pity. I’d love to see Draghi do a rate hike.

US Economic Misery Finds Company, Just Not In a Rate Hike (BBG)

The Federal Reserve is expected, sooner or later, to raise its key interest rate for a second time since the financial crisis – a feat not in sight for other major developed-nation central banks. It’ll depend on if the economy is doing well, and policy makers may take comfort that the U.S. ranking has fallen in a gauge of economic misery. With the unemployment rate at 4.9% and inflation at 0.8%, the U.S. Misery Index score of 5.7 has improved since the financial crisis, though it lags behind Switzerland, Japan, the U.K. and New Zealand. All these nations’ central banks are poised to hold rates at record lows, or cut them further, according to surveys conducted by Bloomberg. The Misery Index is a simple calculation adding the rate of unemployment and inflation, with lower scores indicating a healthier economy.

But if you think the four countries that are beating out the U.S. in terms of misery are doing everything right, think again. Japan and Switzerland, both of which have brought their rates to negative levels in an attempt to boost lending, are suffering from deflation, which is helping bring down their Misery Index scores. New Zealand, though faring a bit better economically, is also expected to cut its central bank rate as inflation remains suppressed, and the U.K. will do so as policy makers attempt to counteract the fallout from Brexit.

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All they have left is zeroes.

ECB Throws Twelfth Zero at Inflation (BBG)

The European Central Bank has added a digit to its odometer to read 1,000,000,000,000. Euros, not kilometers. That’s the amount of excess liquidity now sloshing through the financial system – equivalent to almost €3,000 ($3,360) for each of the 340 million people in the 19-nation region. The money is created by the ECB through a program of quantitative easing and bank loans, and is aimed at bringing inflation closer to its goal of just under 2%. It’s labeled “excess” because it’s the amount over and above what’s immediately needed by the banking system to serve the economy. That’s why it’s inflationary. But no matter how often the money is lent to companies and households, at the end of each day it lands at the central bank where commercial institutions have their accounts.

And because the ECB’s stimulus package also includes a negative deposit rate of 0.4%, lenders are charged for that surplus cash. With excess liquidity passing €1 trillion as of Sept. 1, the ECB now makes more than €11 million a day in interest from the deposit facility alone. Though that’s just a fraction of the institution’s revenue. “Earnings related to QE are more decisive for net income,” said Michael Schubert, an economist at Commerzbank in Frankfurt. “It was the bigger factor in the past years.” There is no single profit and loss account for the 19 national central banks and the ECB; everyone publishes their own. Germany’s Bundesbank, which implements monetary policy in Europe’s largest economy, made €248 million last year from charging interest for deposits and nearly €2 billion from past and present asset-purchase programs.

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Please make it stop!

Any ECB Move Into Stocks Unlikely To Be Plain Sailing (R.)

The ECB may soon be forced to follow the Bank of Japan’s example and buy equities as part of any expanded stimulus programme, but it faces significant hurdles in helping all 19 euro zone members equally without distorting a key market for investors. The European Central Bank could run out of eligible bonds for its €1.7 trillion bond-buying scheme, meaning alternative options are on the table should it decide to loosen policy further to lift growth and inflation across the bloc. Analysts say these could include large-scale share buying, a policy that the BOJ has already adopted after it started purchasing equity exchange traded funds (ETFs) for its own quantitative easing scheme six years ago.

ETFs allow an investor to trade a range of assets, from a basket of stocks to government debt. ETFs, which offer a convenient way to purchase a broad basket of securities in a single transaction from an exchange, have risen in popularity with investors due to their simplicity and lower fees. But buying ETFs in the 19-nation euro zone would be far from simple for the ECB, both practically and politically. “How do you buy an index which favours all countries within the euro zone? Obviously the ECB doesn’t want to be seen favouring one market above another,” said Commerzbank economist Peter Dixon.

The BOJ doubled its ETF purchases in late July to an annual pace of 6 trillion yen ($58 billion). According to SPDR ETFs, the BOJ is now estimated to hold almost 50% of the total Japanese ETF market. Investments in Europe-listed ETFs are worth just over $500 billion, compared with nearly $200 billion in Japan and more than $2 trillion in the United States, according to consultancy firm ETFGI. Although the European ETF market is bigger than Japan’s, such a scheme would have to benefit 19 member states, from heavyweight Germany to much smaller Slovakia.

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Washington should leave them alone.

Retailers Seek US Government Help With Shipping Crisis (WSJ)

U.S. retailers, bracing for a blow as they stock up for the crucial holiday sales season, asked the government to step in and help resolve a growing crisis caused by the near-collapse of South Korea’s Hanjin Shipping , one of the world’s largest container shipping companies. “While the situation is still developing, the prospect of harm is significant and apparent,” Sandra Kennedy, president of the Retail Industry Leaders Association, wrote in a letter to the Department of Commerce and the Federal Maritime Commission. Hanjin’s recent bankruptcy filing “presents an enormous challenge to U.S. shippers,” she said, and “could have a substantial impact on consumers and the economy at large.”

The trade group is urging the U.S. to work with ports, cargo handlers and the South Korean government to resolve the widespread disruption in freight shipments caused by the Hanjin bankrupcy filing. A spokesman for the Retail Industry Leaders Association said they’re hoping the South Korean government could help provide clarity and speed to the bankruptcy proceedings, which are being considered by courts there. Hanjin handles about 7.8% of the trans-Pacific trade volume for the U.S. market, Ms. Kennedy’s letter said. Since the shipping company filed for bankruptcy protection in a Seoul court Wednesday, terminal operators, ports, cargo handlers, truckers and others have refused to handle its cargo, for fear they won’t get paid. That is causing turmoil at U.S. ports and beyond, said shippers, importers and freight forwarders.

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There’s no maybe involved. The only way to finance Tesla was to agree to buy back its own second hand cars from lenders, or in other words: “..Tesla began providing “residual value guarantees” to those “leasing partners.”

Tesla’s Cash Crunch Worse Than You Think (Fortune)

It’s well known that Tesla is deploying gigantic amounts of capital to boost sales from a projected 50,000 vehicles this year to half-a-million in 2018. That’s arguably the most ambitious goal in corporate America. To make it happen, Musk has grown Tesla’s asset base from $1.3 billion at the end of 2013 to $11.9 billion by June 30, following a $1.7 billion equity raise in the second quarter. Now, Tesla will need to accelerate its capital-raising program to fund the SolarCity deal. It’s absolutely typical for a startup racing to build new plants and R&D centers to burn a lot more cash than it generates. Investors and analysts are mostly optimistic, predicting that Tesla will in a few years exploit its heavy investment by generating big positive and fast-growing cash flows.

Hence, it’s crucial to examine the arc of Tesla’s cash flows to project when, and if, it will become profitable. As with its other pro-forma measures, Tesla’s version of cash from operations looks a lot better than the official numbers. So which is the right figure for investors? As it reported in its 10K for 2015, Tesla made a major concession to an important group of customers. The shift was aimed at strengthening a fast-growing business, sales of vehicles to banks that lease its model S and X vehicles to end-customers. In the past, Tesla simply sold the autos to its leasing customers, with no strings attached. The banks had no right to get money back from Tesla if, for example, the market for used electric vehicles dropped, forcing them to sell at lower-than-expected prices when the leases ended.

But starting in the fourth quarter of 2014, Tesla began providing “residual value guarantees” to those “leasing partners.” Those guarantees state that when the lease expires, typically after three years, the bank has the option of selling the car back to Tesla at a fixed, pre-determined price. Or, if the lessor chooses to sell the cars on its own and receives less than the guarantee amount, Tesla must cover the shortfall. Of course, customers have the option of buying the Model S or Model X for a fixed price at the end of the lease period, and if a customer does keep the car, Tesla’s liability ends. But if a customer decides not to buy, the bank can return the car to Tesla and pocket the guaranteed price, or sell the three-year old vehicle on the nascent green used car market. Either way, Tesla takes a big loss, and effectively returns a lot of the original “purchase” price, if rates for used S and X’s drop.

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“..Australia’s real estate bubble, which is being held aloft by foreign capital..”

Apartment Correction To Cause Australia-Wide Recession (SMH)

A “correction” in the apartment market could see sharp falls in all Australian home prices and a nationwide recession, a gloomy bank analyst report on the housing market warns. The report by analysts CLSA paints a “base case” scenario which says Australia’s housing cycle has “peaked,” with household debt now extending the country’s property bubble. The shift by big banks to tighten lending standards is likely to cause a “correction” and “crisis” in cheap apartments which will spread, leading to defaults among smaller developers and a sharp contraction in construction, CLSA says.

The “worst case” scenario foresees “dwelling prices falling sharply in all areas, eventually leading to a recession,” the report’s authors, respected former banking analyst Brian Johnson, and his colleagues say. “Issues of affordability and household debt are overextending Australia’s real estate bubble, which is being held aloft by foreign capital,” they say. “Our base case has the crisis starting with cheap apartments and later spreading to other flats in close proximity.” The authors put a “sell” recommendation on stocks of companies most likely to be affected by the crunch, including the country’s biggest bank CBA and listed property giant Lendlease. Another property player Mirvac would also be impacted, they said.

Mr Johnson and co. said they believe a correction in the housing market will start with settlement problems among apartment buyers, where purchasers who stumped up a 10% deposit simply walk away leaving developers to recoup the money or resell the unit. Under the “base case” scenario the contagion from falling apartment prices has a “muted” impact on single-family homes and is not enough to push the economy into recession. The risk of the “worst case” happening, which predicts sharp price falls and a recession, is increased because Australian household’s are holding debt that is at 122% of GDP and house prices are 12 times price to income ratios, the authors say.

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No matter how the Apple case turns out, golden taxation days in Europe are over. Next up for scrutiny: Netherlands.

Starbucks, Amazon Pay Less Tax Than A Sausage Stand, Austria Says (R.)

Multinationals like coffee chain Starbucks and online retailer Amazon pay less tax in Austria than one of the country’s tiny sausage stands, the republic’s center-left chancellor lamented in an interview published on Friday. Chancellor Christian Kern, head of the Social Democrats and of the centrist coalition government, also criticized internet giants Google and Facebook, saying that if they paid more tax subsidies for print media could increase. “Every Viennese cafe, every sausage stand pays more tax in Austria than a multinational corporation,” Kern was quoted as saying in an interview with newspaper Der Standard, invoking two potent symbols of the Austrian capital’s food culture.

“That goes for Starbucks, Amazon and other companies,” he said, praising the European Commission’s ruling this week that Apple should pay up to €13 billion in taxes plus interest to Ireland because a special scheme to route profits through that country was illegal state aid. Apple has said it will appeal the ruling, which Chief Executive Tim Cook described as “total political crap”. Google, Facebook and other multinational companies say they follow all tax rules. Kern criticized EU states with low-tax regimes that have lured multinationals – and come under scrutiny from Brussels. “What Ireland, the Netherlands, Luxembourg or Malta are doing here lacks solidarity towards the rest of the European economy,” he said.

He stopped short of saying that Facebook and Google would have to pay more tax but underlined their significant sales in Austria, which he estimated at more than 100 million euros each, and their relatively small numbers of employees – a “good dozen” for Google and “allegedly even fewer” for Facebook. “They massively suck up the advertising volume that comes out of the economy but pay neither corporation tax nor advertising duty in Austria,” said Kern, who became chancellor in May.

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Always thought that ‘kills 99% of bacteria can’t be a good thing’. Without bacteria, there are no people.

Antibacterial Soaps Banned In US Amid Claims They Do ‘More Harm Than Good’ (G.)

Antibacterial soaps were banned from the US market on Friday in a final ruling by the Food and Drug Administration, which said that manufacturers had failed to prove the cleansers were safe or more effective than normal products. Dr Janet Woodcock, director of the FDA’s center for evaluation and research, said that certain antimicrobial soaps may not actually serve any health benefits at all. “Consumers may think antibacterial washes are more effective at preventing the spread of germs, but we have no scientific evidence that they are any better than plain soap and water,” she said in a statement. “In fact, some data suggests that antibacterial ingredients may do more harm than good over the long term.”

Manufacturers had failed to show either the safety of “long-term daily use” or that the products were “more effective than plain soap and water in preventing illness and the spread of certain infections”. The new federal rule applies to any soap or antiseptic product that has one or more of 19 chemical compounds, including triclocarbon, which is often found in bar soaps, and triclosan, often in liquid soaps. It does not affect alcohol-based hand sanitizers and wipes, which the FDA is still investigating, or certain healthcare products meant specifically for clinical settings. The FDA has given manufacturers a year to change their products or pull them off shelves.

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