Nov 102014
 
 November 10, 2014  Posted by at 10:30 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , , ,  Comments Off on Debt Rattle November 10 2014


DPC Wanted: 500 men to eat frankfurters, Bowery, Rockaway, NY 1905

US Economic Growth Is All An Illusion (John Crudele)
The System Is Terminally Broken (Investment Research Dynamics)
Buybacks Biggest “Source Of Equity Demand In Recent Years” (Zero Hedge)
Myopic Domestic Delusion or Planned Monetary Demolition? (De Landevoisin)
What Stocks Say About The State Of The Global Economy (Zero Hedge)
China Factory-Gate Prices Decline for Record 32nd Month (Bloomberg)
Xi Dangles $1.25 Trillion as China Counters U.S. Refocus (Bloomberg)
China’s Stock Markets Change Forever Next Week (MarketWatch)
China’s $9 Trillion Untapped Market Spurs U.S. ETF Frenzy (Bloomberg)
Russia, China Add to $400 Billion Gas Deal With Accord (Bloomberg)
Russian Ruble Firms On Putin’s Backing (Reuters)
Banks Face 25% Loss Buffer as FSB Fights Too-Big-to-Fail (BW)
Jean-Claude Juncker Needs to Go (Bloomberg Ed.)
Draghi Summons Banking Know-How for Top Posts as ECB Role Shifts (Bloomberg)
Over 80% of Catalans Vote Yes at Independence Poll (RIA)
Letter Reveals 2010 ECB Funding ‘Threat’ To Ireland (BreakingNews.ie)
GM Ordered New Ignition Switches Long Before Recall (WSJ)
A 700-Kilometre Surveillance Fence Along The Canada-US Border (NPost)
Australia ‘Giving Up’ On Renewables (BBC)
Australia Renewables Investment Drops 70% From Last Year (Tim Flannery)
Why It’s Not Enough to Just Eradicate Ebola (NBC)

Haven’t seen anything by Crudele in a long time. My bad. Then again, he hides out at the NY Post of all places.

US Economic Growth Is All An Illusion (John Crudele)

As voters were coming out of the polls on Tuesday, pesky reporters were asking why they voted the way they did — and what was going through their heads The most popular response — from 45% of the voters — was the economy. Only 28% said their families were doing better financially. The economy is always the major issue in an election during times like these. So no one should have been shocked that voters took their anger out on the party that controls the White House, even though Republicans are just as much to blame for our economy’s failures. John Harwood, a political reporter for CNBC, asked a very good question before the votes were counted: Why? As in, “Why did people appear so angry and unhappy when the stock market was at record levels, the unemployment rate is down sharply, inflation is subdued and the number of jobs is increasing?”

Harwood’s explanation was that the benefits of this economic growth weren’t being evenly distributed and were being felt only by the blessed in the American economy — the upper 1%, if you will. Harwood is only a little right. Yes, the economy is blessing the few and leaving the rest of us in limbo. What Harwood and the rest of the folks who rely solely on Washington’s mainstream thinkers and Wall Street boosters for their information don’t realize is this: The economy isn’t really doing what the statistics say it is doing. Our nation’s economic statistics are nipped and tucked, massaged, managed, fabricated and dolled up. In short, our statistics are wrong and Main Street folks know it. Here’s what a Wall Street hedge fund mogul, Paul Singer, head of Elliott Management Corp., told his clients the other day: “Nobody can predict how long governments can get away with fake growth, fake money, fake jobs, fake financial stability, fake inflation numbers and fake income growth,” Singer wrote.

“When confidence is lost, that loss can be severe, sudden and simultaneous across a number of markets and sectors.” I’m glad someone is reading my column. But it’s not like Singer — whom I don’t know — was willing to say that out loud so that everyone could understand. He wrote that in his newsletter to his clients. So, shhhhh! It’s a secret. Don’t tell Americans that the economy isn’t doing so well. (Oh, that’s right, they’ve already caught on.) I won’t get into the year-long investigation I have been conducting into the Census Bureau’s faulty economic data. Now that the Republicans control both houses of Congress, I’m sure what is going on at Census will be looked at very carefully. But fabrication of data isn’t the only problem. Put enough academics and statisticians in a room and they can turn any statistic into something it isn’t.

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Word: “What would happen if the Fed decided to “experiment” by removing this massive dead-pool of money from the banks? The money isn’t really “dead,” it’s keeping the banks from collapsing.”

The System Is Terminally Broken (Investment Research Dynamics)

The Fed has formally “ended” QE, but it hasn’t really. The Fed will continue reinvesting interest on its portfolio in more bonds and it will rollover maturities. We saw what happens to the stock market a few weeks ago when Fed official James Bullard asserted that the Fed needs to start raising rates: the S&P 500 quickly dropped 8%. Right at the bottom of the drop, the very same Bullard issued a statement suggesting that QE should be extended. This triggered an insanely abrupt “V” move back up to a new record high for the S&P 500. Bullard either did this intentionally or is a complete idiot. The stock market can’t function without Federal Reserve intervention. The stock market lost 8% quickly on just the thought that the Fed might start raising rates. Imagine what would happen if the Fed decided to “experiment” by shutting down its market intervention operations – both verbal and physical – for a month…

As for QE, if the Fed has achieved its objective of stimulating the economy, why doesn’t it start removing the $2.6 trillion of liquidity that it has injected into its member banks? This was money that was supposed to be directed at the economy. How come it’s sitting on bank balance sheets earning .25% interest? That’s $6.5 billion in free interest the Fed continues to inject into the Too Big To Fail banks. But why? What would happen if the Fed decided to “experiment” by removing this massive dead-pool of money from the banks? The money isn’t really “dead,” it’s keeping the banks from collapsing. I’m interested to watch the Government Treasury bond auctions now that the Fed is not there to soak up anywhere from 50-100% of each issue. I wonder if the banks will be moving their $2.6 trillion in Excess Reserves into new Treasury issuance. Obama is going around broadcasting the lie that the Government’s spending deficit in FY 2014 was something like $600 billion.

Yet, the amount of new Treasury bonds issued increased by $1 trillion over the same period. Either Obama is lying or the accountants at the Treasury committed a big typo. Either the Fed has found a way to continue opaquely monetizing new Government debt issuance, or the market is soon going to force U.S. interest rates up much higher.

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Time to raise rates, or companies will own all their own stock. Sort of like BOJ buying up all Japanese sovereign bonds. Snake eats tail.

Buybacks Biggest “Source Of Equity Demand In Recent Years” (Zero Hedge)

Spoiler alert: it’s not the Fed, even though the portfolio rebalancing channel courtesy of a $4.5 trillion Fed balance sheet certainly assured that the artificially inflated bubble in stocks, as a result of the Fed’s own purchases of bonds, is unlike anything seen before (and to all those debating whether the bubble is in bonds or stocks, here is the answer: it is in both). The answer, according to Goldman’s David Kostin is the following: “From a strategic perspective, buybacks have been the largest source of overall US equity demand in recent years.”

In other words, not only has the Fed made a mockery of fundamentals, the resulting ZIRP tsunami means that corporations can issue nearly-unlimited debt to yield chasing “advisors” managing other people’s money, and use it to buyback vast amounts of stock, which brings us to the latest aberation of the New Abnormal: the “Pull the S&P up by the Bootstaps” market, in which the only relevant question is which company can buyback the most of its own stock. Some further observations on the only thing that matters for equity demand in a world in which the Fed is, for the time being, sidelined:

Since the start of 4Q, a sector-neutral basket of 50 stocks with the highest buyback yields has outpaced the S&P 500.

And sure enough, with the market once again rewarding stock buybacks… companies will focus exclusively on stock repurchases in lieu of actual growth-promoting capital allocation such as CapEx (as predicted in April 2012):

We forecast S&P 500 cash spent on repurchases will rise by 18% in 2015 following a 26% jump in 2014.

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Very much worth a read. People leap into assumptions about Fed and IMF goals far too easily, if you ask me.

Myopic Domestic Delusion or Planned Monetary Demolition? (De Landevoisin)

So where is the impasse I point to? Well, as stated above, I am not quite so sanguine as Mr. Stockman is regarding the reasons behind our apparent self induced economic undoing. It is my contention that there exists ample motive behind the apparent policy insanity we are indeed witnessing and actually navigating through. What is being done is quite simply too plainly preposterous to be so innocently and readily dismissed. One has to consider what else may be driving the continuous and relentless stoking of a glaring, oncoming, head on collision train wreck dead ahead. No locomotive engineer can simply be assumed to be this brain dead, so completely out to lunch, it just doesn’t add up. Something else is at the heart of this mainlined monetary mayhem.

Call me a jaded cynic or even worse, a crackpot conspiracist, but when I see a country as majestic and powerful as the United States which has always stood for liberty and the pursuit of free enterprise, knowingly, willfully and conspicuously being undermined, as if being herded over a cliff like baffled buffaloe on the great plains, I smell a dubious dirty rat. Let us bear in mind, that the IMF Multinational Central Bankers are waiting in the wings to pick up the pieces of the train wreckage, with their deliberate SDR regime preparations. They are qualifying themselves to take on the existing immense capital account imbalances between the debtor and creditor nations. That will be a critical aspect of the developing picture.

As a new global monetary order begins to emerge and impose itself, the SDR composite will be expanded so as to address these utterly unsustainable trade imbalance. The envisaged multilateral SDR monetary instrument will be positioned to buy out the existing unserviceable sovereign debt loads, whereby the massively indebted nations of the developed world will cede a measure of influence to the creditor nations of the emerging world.

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Ouch!

What Stocks Say About The State Of The Global Economy (Zero Hedge)

The following two charts cut right through the headline propaganda and show all there is to know about the state of the global economy. The first is a chart of Global Cyclical stocks (Goldman ticker GSSBGCYC). The second shows Global Defensives (Goldman ticker GSSBGDEF). The resulting picture is worth 1000 Op-Eds welcoming you to yet another “global recovery.”

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And that economy is still supposed to grow at 7%?

China Factory-Gate Prices Decline for Record 32nd Month (Bloomberg)

China’s factory-gate prices fell for a record 32nd month in October and consumer prices remained subdued, raising pressure on policymakers to bolster the world’s second-largest economy as disinflation spreads. The producer-price index dropped 2.2% from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said in Beijing today, compared with the median projection of a 2% decline in a survey of analysts by Bloomberg News. Consumer prices rose 1.6% and the rate was unchanged from the prior month and matched economists’ estimates. China’s economy, burdened by overcapacity and weak domestic demand, is headed for the slowest full-year growth in more than two decades. Lower oil and metals prices are cutting costs at the factory gate, allowing China’s exporters to reduce prices and adding to deflationary pressures globally.

“China’s domestic demand remained soft and dis-inflationary risks are on the rise on the back of falling global commodity prices,” said Chang Jian, chief China economist at Barclays. “Subdued inflation offers room for more PBOC easing, but broad-based monetary easing will more likely to be triggered by disappointing growth numbers, which we will likely see in the coming months.” Chang said she expects the PPI drop will continue to 2015. Purchasing prices of fuels fell 3.8% in October from a year earlier, while ferrous metals costs dropped 6.9%, the NBS data showed. Prices of all nine components dropped. Oil prices have slumped into a bear market amid speculation of a global glut, slowing drilling at U.S. shale formations. Producers in OPEC countries are responding by cutting prices, resisting calls to reduce supply as they compete with the highest U.S. output in three decades.

“The extended drop in the PPI is affected by the prolonged decline of global oil prices and overcapacity in some domestic industries,” Yu Qiumei, a senior statistician at the NBS, said in a statement today. Eighteen of China’s 31 provinces and municipalities reported a nominal growth rate lower than the price-adjusted level for the first nine months of this year, signaling deflation. China’s imports moderated to a 4.6% increase in October from September’s 7% gain, according to data released by General Administration of Customs over the weekend.

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Ahem: “China’s development will generate huge opportunities and benefits and hold lasting and infinite promise.”

Xi Dangles $1.25 Trillion as China Counters U.S. Refocus (Bloomberg)

President Xi Jinping sought to counter U.S. efforts aimed at boosting influence in Asia by flexing China’s economic muscle days before a Beijing summit with his counterpart Barack Obama. Speaking to executives at a CEO gathering in Beijing, Xi outlined how much the world stands to gain from a rising China. He said outbound investment will total $1.25 trillion over the next 10 years, 500 million Chinese tourists will go abroad, and the government will spend $40 billion to revive the ancient Silk Road trade route between Asia and Europe. “China’s development will generate huge opportunities and benefits and hold lasting and infinite promise,” Xi said. “As China’s overall national strength grows, China will be both capable and willing to provide more public goods for the Asia Pacific and the world.”

China has used the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum summit under way in Beijing to put forward its own trade and economic proposals to strengthen its sway in Asia. Those incentives complement a greater assertiveness in territorial disputes and moves to upgrade its military after decades of U.S. dominance in the region. China is rolling out counteroffers for each promise made by President Barack Obama, whom he’ll meet this week in Beijing as part of the summit. Xi is pushing the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific in response to the U.S.-backed Trans-Pacific Partnership, which excludes China. An Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank mostly financed with money from Beijing is seen as an answer to the Asian Development Bank and other multinational lenders where the U.S. and Japan have the most influence.

“Any time they have the chance to shape international economic rules or norms they are going to do that,” said Andrew Polk, resident economist at the Conference Board China Center for Economics and Business in Beijing. “It’s a bifurcated kind of response – there’s a reactive response to the developed world but trying to take a leadership role among other emerging economies.” While spelling out his message, Xi also made clear China is ready to accept a lower rate of growth, assuring executives that the economy is more resilient than ever and his government can safely guide the country through any slowdown. China’s economy is targeted to grow at about 7.5% this year, the slowest since 1990, and Xi said a growth rate around 7% would still make the country a top performer.

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Big deal, but with China doing far worse than they let on, what possible outcomes are there?

China’s Stock Markets Change Forever Next Week (MarketWatch)

When MarketWatch covers Chinese stocks, we usually focus on those listed in Hong Kong. The reason for this is that few outside of China – mainly just institutional investors with approved quotas – are able to buy what’s sold in Shanghai, Shenzhen and the other mainland Chinese bourses, while any investor in the world can buy Hong Kong-listed names. But this is all about to change in a big way next Monday, when China launches its game-changing “Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect” program. For the first time ever, retail investors around the world will be able to invest in mainland Chinese equities.

In some high-profile cases, the same companies have stock listing in both Shanghai (known as “A-shares” when denominated in yuan) and Hong Kong (“H-shares”), though here too, opportunities exist in the form of arbitrage, as a given company’s A-shares and H-shares rarely trade at the same level. “Many international investors are completely excited,” Charles Li, the chief executive of bourse operator Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing (HKEx) told MarketWatch at a recent media availability. “This is probably the last frontier market that has yet to open,” Li said, “and they [global investors] probably have never seen a rebalancing possibility like this scale anytime in past history.”

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I smell a huge rat. This has the potential to hide away the reality of global financial markets for a while. However, it also brings western scrutiny closer to China’s numbers.

China’s $9 Trillion Untapped Market Spurs U.S. ETF Frenzy (Bloomberg)

The race is on to give U.S. exchange-traded fund investors access to $9 trillion of stocks and bonds in mainland China. Money managers including BlackRock and CSOP have now registered almost 40 ETFs tracking the country’s domestic shares and debt with U.S. regulators, six times the number of existing funds. The products allow anyone with a U.S. brokerage account to gain exposure to Chinese securities that were previously off limits to all but a few qualified institutions. Equities in the biggest emerging market are heading for the best annual gain since 2009, outpacing shares of mainland companies listed overseas amid speculation government plans to ease capital controls will narrow the valuation discount on domestic securities. As programs including a planned bourse link between Hong Kong and Shanghai help open up China’s markets, fund providers are rushing to stake claims to the fees they hope will come from new investors.

“There is so much potential, you just can’t ignore China,” Patricia Oey, a senior analyst at investment data provider Morningstar Inc. in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. Fund companies “want to have a foot into a very big market. China is opening up and they want to be there.” BlackRock, the world’s largest money manager, is seeking to introduce its first U.S. exchange-traded fund that would invest directly in equities traded in Shanghai and Shenzhen, according to a Sept. 15 regulatory filing. CSOP, which runs a $6 billion ETF of China’s yuan-denominated A shares out of Hong Kong, filed to create a U.S. version three days later. While only a fraction of Chinese companies are listed or sell debt offshore, U.S. investors have piled almost $10 billion into ETFs that exclusively buy securities trading abroad, until recently one of the only ways for individuals to gain exposure to businesses from the world’s second-largest economy.

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“Together we have carefully taken care of the tree of Russian-Chinese relations. Now fall has set in, it’s harvest time, it’s time to gather fruit.”

Russia, China Add to $400 Billion Gas Deal With Accord (Bloomberg)

China has secured almost a fifth of the natural gas supplies it will need by the end of the decade after striking a second major deal with Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping signed the gas-supply agreement in Beijing the day before U.S. President Barack Obama arrived in the Chinese capital for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. The deal is slightly smaller than the $400 billion accord reached earlier this year, shortly after Russia’s annexation of Crimea. Russia’s Gazprom is negotiating the supply of as much as 30 billion cubic meters of gas annually from West Siberia to China over 30 years, it said yesterday. Another Russian company is discussing the sale of a 10% stake in a Siberian unit to state-owned China National Petroleum Corp.

Russia has turned to China to diversify its market and spur its economy as relations soured with the U.S. and Europe over the Ukraine crisis. The initial accord “will make Russia rely more on China both economically and politically,” Lin Boqiang, director of the Energy Economics Research Center at Xiamen University, said by phone. “China is probably the only country in the world that has both the financial ability and the market capacity to consume Russia’s huge energy exports on a sustainable basis over a long period of time,” said Lin. It gives Putin an opportunity to show Europe and the U.S. that his country won’t be isolated over Ukraine, he said. The two deals could account for almost 17% of China’s gas consumption by 2020, Gordon Kwan at Nomura wrote.

Russia may start selling gas to China within four to six years as part of the agreement with CNPC, Gazprom Chief Executive Officer Alexey Miller told reporters in Beijing. When the new supply deal begins, China will surpass Germany to become Russia’s biggest natural gas customer, according to CNPC’s website. “Together we have carefully taken care of the tree of Russian-Chinese relations,” Chinese President Xi Jinping said yesterday at a meeting with Putin at the economic forum. “Now fall has set in, it’s harvest time, it’s time to gather fruit.”

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It’s one sunny message after the other at the APEC summit.

Russian Ruble Firms On Putin’s Backing (Reuters)

The ruble firmed broadly on Monday after President Vladimir Putin said there were no reasons for the slide in the Russian currency. After a dramatic fall in previous week and volatile swings of 6% in its rate on Friday, the rouble traded 1.9% higher at 45.77 to the dollar at 0735 GMT. The Russian currency was 1.7% stronger at 57.07 against the euro. The Russian central bank said on Monday that it expects zero economic growth in 2015 and only 0.1% growth in 2016, in a three-year monetary policy strategy that anticipates Western sanctions against Russia will remain until the end of 2017. The central bank said that it was also calculating its base forecasts on the Urals oil price recovering to an average of $95 in 2015 but falling to $90 by the end of 2017, a long-term downward trend which it said would constrain economic growth.

Putin, wooing Asian investors on Monday at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Beijing, said he was hopeful that speculation against the rouble would stop soon and that there was no fundamental economic reason for the currency’s slide. The rouble has slumped nearly 30% against the dollar this year as plunging oil prices and Western sanctions over the Ukraine crisis shrivelled Russia’s exports and investment inflows. Russia’s central bank, which limited its support for the rouble last week by cutting the size of its interventions to $350 million a day, said on Friday it would still intervene to support the rouble it sees threats to financial stability. Putin also said Russia and China intend to increase the amount of trade that is settled in yuan, as he ruled out capital controls for Russia.

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Long overdue and even now just a plan.

Banks Face 25% Loss Buffer as FSB Fights Too-Big-to-Fail (BW)

The world’s largest banks will have to build up their loss-absorbing liability buffers to see them through a crisis, as regulators tackle too-big-to-fail lenders six years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. The Financial Stability Board, led by Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, said today that the biggest banks may be required to have total loss absorbing capacity equivalent to as much as a quarter of their assets weighted for risk, with national regulators able to impose still tougher standards. The FSB is seeking comment on the rule, known as TLAC, which would apply at the earliest in 2019. Carney said the plans are a “watershed” in regulators’ mission to end the threat posed by banks whose size and systemic importance mean their failure would be catastrophic for the global economy.

“Once implemented, these agreements will play important roles in enabling globally systemic banks to be resolved without recourse to public subsidy and without disruption to the wider financial system,” he said. The rules are the latest step by the FSB in a five-year quest to boost banks’ resilience in the face of financial shocks. Agreement has already been reached on measures including tougher capital requirements and enhanced scrutiny by supervisors. The TLAC rules would apply to the FSB’s register of global systemically important banks. The latest list, published last week, contains 30 banks, with HSBC and JPMorgan identified as the most significant. The draft requirements announced by the FSB would measure banks’ ability to absorb losses in a crisis, shielding taxpayers from bailouts.

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For once, I agree with the Bloomberg editors.

Jean-Claude Juncker Needs to Go (Bloomberg Ed.)

Jean-Claude Juncker, the new president of the European Commission, was always a bad choice for the job, foisted on the bloc’s 28 national governments by a European Parliament eager to expand its powers. It’s becoming clear now just how poor a decision that appointment was. Juncker was the prime minister of Luxembourg, a tiny nation with a population 1/17th the size of London’s, for almost two decades. In that time, he oversaw the growth of a financial industry that became a tax center for at least 340 major global companies, not to mention investment funds with almost €3 trillion ($3.7 trillion) in net assets – second only to the U.S. Partly as a result of the Swiss-style bank secrecy rules and government-blessed tax avoidance schemes that helped draw so much capital, the people of Luxembourg have become the world’s richest after Qatar.

The tax arrangements, described in leaked documents provided by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists, allegedly enabled multinationals, from Apple to Deutsche Bank, to reduce their tax liabilities on profits earned in other countries: The effective Luxembourg tax rates that resulted were as little as 0.25%. The countries where the money was made received nothing. It’s telling that these arrangements have long been shrouded in secrecy. (Only last month did Luxembourg’s government drop its opposition to new EU rules on banking transparency.) Juncker, you could say, made his country rich by picking the pockets of other countries, including those of the European Union he is now mandated to serve.

The commission was already conducting an investigation of Luxembourg’s tax arrangements. Juncker says he won’t interfere – but he won’t recuse himself, either. Indeed, his spokesman says he is “serene” in the face of the revelations. He shouldn’t be. At this point, he could best serve the European project by resigning. Juncker’s position as the head of the body investigating the tax practices he oversaw as prime minister is a clear conflict of interest. It’s possible the commission will find nothing improper about Luxembourg’s tax-avoidance paradise: The EU allows member governments wide latitude in taxing companies, so long as they don’t favor some over others. But with Juncker in charge of the commission, any such exoneration will fail to command public confidence.

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“Oh, jeez: “This macroprudential policy was born out of the gradual recognition that the financial system isn’t always rational.”

Draghi Summons Banking Know-How for Top Posts as ECB Role Shifts (Bloomberg)

Mario Draghi is seeking economists who understand banks, and he’s not afraid to look outside Frankfurt to find them. As the European Central Bank assumes the mantle of euro-area financial supervisor, its president has just staffed two key monetary-policy posts with non-ECB experts on how lenders function in the economy. The appointments mark a trend of turning to outsiders as the 16-year-old institution struggles to meet its changing responsibilities with existing staff. “People like Draghi have much more interest in how markets and supervision affect monetary policy than the old school,” said Anatoli Annenkov, senior European economist at Societe Generale SA in London. “It’s a reflection of the problems that the ECB is facing.” Sergio Nicoletti Altimari, a Bank of Italy financial-markets official who worked closely with Draghi during the latter’s time as governor there, will become director general for macroprudential policy and financial stability from Jan. 1.

Luc Laeven, a Belgian economist at the International Monetary Fund with a track record of analyzing financial crises, will become director general for research by March. Draghi is seeking people who can handle the new powers the ECB gained when it became the euro-area banking supervisor on Nov. 4. About 900 new staff have been hired so far who will be dedicated to oversight, and the role also brings the authority to promote financial stability throughout the economy with measures such as higher capital buffers or increased risk-weightings on lenders’ assets. This macroprudential policy was born out of the gradual recognition that the financial system isn’t always rational, and so someone needs to be watching for the emergence of risks that could escalate and broaden.

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Add this to the recent revelations of the corruption agonizingly close to Rajoy and his government, and Catalunya must feel stronger every day.

Over 80% of Catalans Vote Yes at Independence Poll (RIA)

An overwhelming majority of Catalans has supported the region’s independence, vice president of the autonomy’s government Joana Ortega said early Monday. There have been two question in the ballots: “Would you like Catalonia to become a state?” and “If yes, would you like Catalonia to become an independent state?” With 88.44% of the ballots counted, 80.72% of voters answered yes to both questions in the ballot, and 10.11% answered yes only to the first questions, according to Ortega. As few as 4% of the voters said no to both questions.

More than 2.25 million people out of 5.4 million eligible voters in the wealthy breakaway region of Catalonia in northeastern Spain voted on Sunday in the unofficial independence poll. Results of the vote are expected to come on Monday morning. Spanish government sees the voting as illegal and tried to block it by filing complaints to the Constitutional Court. However Catalan President Artur Mas has stated that Catalonia would carry out the consultation despite the central government’s protests. Earlier on Sunday the central government dismissed the vote as “useless” and unconstitutional.

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The ECB is no more beyond blackmail than the rest of Brussels is.

Letter Reveals 2010 ECB Funding ‘Threat’ To Ireland (BreakingNews.ie)

A top-level threat to cut emergency European funding to Ireland days before the humiliating international bailout will shock people, Public Expenditure Minister Brendan Howlin has said. Letters released today by the European Central Bank (ECB) confirm the Government was warned crisis funds propping up collapsed banks in 2010 would be withdrawn unless they asked for an €85bn rescue package. The missive from then-ECB president Jean Claude Trichet to the late former Finance Minister Brian Lenihan also demanded a written commitment to punishing austerity measures, spending cutbacks and an overhaul of the financial industry. Irish high-street banks were surviving on emergency funding – known as emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) – at the time and if stopped, it could have effectively shut down the property crash-ravaged lenders.

Mr Trichet urged a speedy response to his proposals, which have been interpreted by some as the Frankfurt central bank pushing Ireland into a bailout. “It is the position of the (ECB) Governing Council that it is only if we receive in writing a commitment from the Irish government vis-a-vis the Eurosystem on the four following points that we can authorise further provisions of ELA (Emergency Liquidity Assistance) to Irish financial institutions,” Mr Trichet wrote. The four points included Ireland seeking a bailout, agreeing to austerity, reforming banks and guaranteeing to repay emergency funds. Two days after the letter was sent on November 19 Ireland officially requested a rescue package from the ECB, the International Monetary Fund and the European Commission. Minister Howlin said the letters – published after a years-long campaign for their release – would “come as a shock to many people”.

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OK, now we know this, go get ’em! Take ’em to court already!

GM Ordered New Ignition Switches Long Before Recall (WSJ)

General Motors ordered a half-million replacement ignition switches to fix Chevrolet Cobalts and other small cars almost two months before it alerted federal safety regulators to the problem, according to emails viewed by The Wall Street Journal. The parts order, not publicly disclosed by GM, and its timing are sure to give fodder to lawyers suing GM and looking to poke holes in a timetable the auto maker gave for its recall of 2.5 million vehicles. The recall concerns a switch issue that is now linked to 30 deaths and has led to heavy criticism of the auto giant’s culture and the launch of a Justice Department investigation.

The email exchanges took place in mid-December 2013 between a GM contract worker and the auto maker’s ignition-switch supplier, Delphi Automotive. The emails indicate GM placed a Dec. 18 “urgent” order for 500,000 replacement switches one day after a meeting of senior executives. GM and an outside report it commissioned have said the executives discussed the Cobalt at the Dec. 17 meeting but didn’t decide on a recall. The emails show Delphi was asked to draw up an aggressive plan of action to produce and ship the parts at the time. In the months that followed, the size of the recall announced Feb. 7 would balloon and spark an auto-safety crisis, casting a shadow over the industry and leading to widespread calls for faster action by auto makers addressing safety concerns.

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” … the Border Integrity Technology Enhancement Project.” Alternatively, they could just burn the $92 million. Or give it to people who need it.

A 700-Kilometre Surveillance Fence Along The Canada-US Border (NPost)

A massive intelligence-gathering network of RCMP video cameras, radar, ground sensors, thermal radiation detectors and more will be erected along the U.S.-Canada border in Ontario and Quebec by 2018, the Mounties said Tuesday. The $92-million surveillance web, formally known as the Border Integrity Technology Enhancement Project, will be concentrated in more than 100 “high-risk” cross-border crime zones spanning 700 kilometres of eastern Canada, said Assistant Commissioner Joe Oliver, the RCMP’s head of technical operations. Airport search not racial profiling when based on customs officers’ on-the-job experience: court Customs officers are not guilty of racial profiling when they use on-the-job experience to decide who to stop and search at Canada’s airports, the Federal Court of Appeal has ruled.

“Officers on the front line, such as the officer herein, cannot be expected to leave their experience — acquired usually after many years of observing people from different countries entering Canada — at home,” Justice Marc Nadon said, writing on behalf of a three-person appeal panel. Justice Nadon made the comment in overturning a tribunal decision that quashed an $800 fine imposed against an Ottawa woman, Ting Ting Tam, who failed to declare some pork rolls in her luggage. “The concept involves employing unattended ground sensors, cameras, radar, licence plate readers, both covert and overt, to detect suspicious activity in high-risk areas along the border,” Assistant Commissioner Oliver told security industry executives attending the SecureTech conference and trade show at Ottawa’s Shaw Centre. “What we’re hoping to achieve is a reduction in cross-border criminality and enhancement of our national security.”

The network of electronic eyes is to run along the Quebec-Maine border to Morrisburg, Ont., then along the St. Lawrence Seaway, across Lake Ontario, and ending just west of Toronto in Oakville. The project was announced under the 2014 federal budget, but framed solely as a measure to improve the RCMP’s ability to combat contraband cigarette smuggling. The network will be linked to a state-of-the-art “geospatial intelligence and automated dispatch centre” that will, among other things, integrate the surveillance data, issue alerts for high-probability targets, issue “instant imagery” to officers on patrol and produce predictive analysis reports.

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The OZ government doesn’t seem to be in sync with its people.

Australia ‘Giving Up’ On Renewables (BBC)

Investment into renewable energy projects in Australia has dropped by 70% in the last year, according to a new report by a climate change body. The Climate Council says foreign investors are going to other countries because Australia’s government has no clear renewable energy policy. Australia has gone from “leader to laggard” in energy projects, it added. Another new report says Australia will need to raise its carbon emission reduction target to 40% by 2025. The damning report on the state of renewable energy, entitled Lagging Behind: Australia and the Global Response to Climate Change, said the country was losing out on valuable business. Investment that could be coming to Australia was going overseas “to countries that are moving to a renewables energy future”, said Tim Flannery, one of the report’s authors. He said most countries around the world had accelerated action on climate change in the last five years because the consequences had become more and more clear.

The report found China had retired 77 gigawatts of coal power stations between 2006 and 2010 and aimed to retire a further 20GW by next year. It also said the US was “rapidly exploiting the global shift to renewable energy” by introducing a range of incentives and initiatives to investors. The future of Australia’s renewable energy industry remains highly uncertain, the report concluded, because of a lack of clear federal government renewable energy policy. “Consequently investment in renewable energy in 2014 has dropped by 70% compared with the previous year,” it said. The second new report, by the Climate Institute, calls on Australia’s government to announce an “independent, transparent” process for setting the post 2020 carbon emission reduction targets. Erwin Jackson, deputy chief executive of the climate body, said too much of the political debate had “ignored growing scientific, investment and international realities”.

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With the amounts being thrown around, it looks risky to pull out.

Australia Renewables Investment Drops 70% From Last Year (Tim Flannery)

Australia’s most important trading partners and allies, such as China, the US and the European Union are strengthening their responses to climate change. Australia will be left in the wake of these big economies (and big emitters), according to the latest Climate Council report Lagging Behind: Australia and the Global Response to Climate Change. Australia’s retreat from being a global leader at tackling climate change is as impressive as our recent performances at the cricket. Looking on the bright side, even countries not known for their sunshine like Germany are going solar in a big way. Global momentum is building as more and more countries invest in renewable energy and put a price on carbon. 39 countries are putting a price on carbon. The EU and China (now with seven pilot schemes up and running) are home to the two largest carbon markets in the world, together covering over 3,000m tonnes (MtCO2) of carbon dioxide emissions.

There’s also plenty of action in the US: 10 states with a combined population of 79 million are now using carbon pricing to drive down emissions, including California, the world’s ninth largest economy. Yet, here in Australia, we now hold the dubious distinction of being the first country to repeal an operating and effective carbon price. Like carbon pricing, support for renewables is also advancing worldwide. In the last year, more renewable energy capacity was added than fossil fuels. Globally renewables attracted greater investment with US$192bn spent on new renewable power compared to US$102bn in fossil fuel plants. China is leading the charge on expanding renewable capacity. At the end of last year, China had installed a whopping 378GW of renewable energy capacity – about a quarter of renewables capacity installed worldwide, and over seven times Australia’s entire grid-connected power capacity.

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Don’t let the GOP find out Obama spends $6 billion on African health care systems.

Why It’s Not Enough to Just Eradicate Ebola (NBC)

The new U.S. plan to spend $6 billion fighting Ebola has a hidden agenda that aid workers approve of: not only stamping out the epidemic in West Africa, but starting to build a health infrastructure that can prevent this kind of thing from happening again. President Barack Obama’s $6.18 billion request is an enormous amount of money – six times what the U.S. has already committed and far more even than what the World Health Organization says is needed. Most is going for full frontal assault on Ebola – one that hasn’t really gotten off the ground yet, months into an epidemic that has been out of control despite an outcry from international groups and governments alike. But billions are also being quietly allocated to building a health care system in the countries suffering the most – a less sexy approach that could prevent another epidemic in the future. Most aid groups are focused on eradicating the virus, which has infected at least 13,000 people, probably more, and killed at least 5,000 of them.

That’s where the public support is; donors and taxpayers alike prefer to focus on a specific goal, and an emergency always gets attention. “Had we had those things in place, we would have detected this a lot earlier.” “We are not really a developmental organization,” said Dr. Armand Sprecher of Médecins Sans Frontières (Doctors Without Borders), one of the main groups fighting Ebola in West Africa. MSF focuses on providing targeted medical care. And while that has to be the first priority, it’s important to keep an eye on the long game, says Dr. Raj Panjabi, a founder and CEO of Last Mile Health, an aid group focused on helping people in the most remote corners of the world. “The goal has to be to not just contain Ebola,” Panjabi told NBC News. Ebola spread silently in villages and remote communities where there were no health care workers to diagnose Ebola and no way for them to report it even if they did catch it. “Had we had those things in place, we would have detected this a lot earlier,” said Panjabi.

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Jul 102014
 
 July 10, 2014  Posted by at 2:48 pm Finance Tagged with: , , ,  17 Responses »


Gottscho-Schleisner Rockefeller Center NYC, RCA Building Sep 1 1933

As fear begins to scare the vanguard of the herd into what may develop into a rampage, the eurocrisis is back with a vengeance. Portuguese bank Esperito Santo leads the way down through missed payments, bringing the Lisbon exchange to its knees with a -4.5% plunge as I write this, with northern EU exchanges showing -1.5% losses and southern ones -2.5%. Markets start to realize than all PIIGS now have much higher state debts than before the crisis started, and that they still are very much big risks, no matter what Draghi and his never fired bazooka say. The same Draghi who, by the way, reiterated once again that Brussels should be given more – and more centralized – power. As if the May election never happened. Of course EU finances were always a mess; it’s just that now we can see it.

So, that taken care of, let’s turn to another mess: energy. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has a nice piece out in which he labels the oil, gas and coal industry “the subprime of this cycle”. And as always, he has a lot of interesting data, and undermines them with his own analysis. It’s what he does. Still, if we simply ignore his personal views, there is plenty to “enjoy”. It’s not as if The Automatic Earth hasn’t but the energy market, especially shale, down to size sufficiently, but it’s always nice to have some new numbers, certainly when they’re absurdly large:

Fossil Industry Is The Subprime Danger Of This Cycle

The epicentre of irrational behaviour across global markets has moved to the fossil fuel complex of oil, gas and coal. This is where investors have been throwing the most good money after bad. [..] Data from Bank of America show that oil and gas investment in the US has soared to $200 billion a year. It has reached 20% of total US private fixed investment, the same share as home building.

This has never happened before in US history, even during the Second World War when oil production was a strategic imperative. The International Energy Agency (IEA) says global investment in fossil fuel supply doubled in real terms to $900 billion from 2000 to 2008 as the boom gathered pace. It has since stabilised at a very high plateau, near $950 billion last year.

All that investment looks for production that more and more vanishes beyond a receding horizon. That’s why there is so much of it: it gets more expensive, fast, to find new reserves that can actually be produced. Whether they can, if they are found at all, be produced at an economically viable level is quite another question, and one to which answers are mostly kept conveniently opaque. Big Oil is in a big bind, but oil and gas is what they do, whether it’s available or not. These companies are fighting a bitter fight just to stay alive, and given their economic and political power, that fight is sure to get very ugly.

The cumulative blitz on exploration and production over the past six years has been $5.4 trillion, yet little has come of it. Output from conventional fields peaked in 2005. Not a single large project has come on stream at a break-even cost below $80 a barrel for almost three years.

“What is shocking is that upstream costs in the oil industry have risen threefold since 2000 but output is up just 14%,” said Mark Lewis, from Kepler Cheuvreux. The damage has been masked so far as big oil companies draw down on their cheap legacy reserves. “They are having to look for oil in the deepwater fields off Africa and Brazil, or in the Arctic, where it is much more difficult. The marginal cost for many shale plays is now $85 to $90 a barrel.”

Upstream costs are up 200%, output rose just 14%. That’s just plain nasty. A few days ago we saw a report that said a joint Shell and Aramco gas project in Saudi Arabia, which cost tens of billions of dollars, came up utterly empty handed, despite the fact that the IEA claims there are trillions of cubic feet in reserves “available” there. That’s the kind of issue Big Oil runs into. And then they invest more. I think it was the Marcellus play that saw its estimates cut by 95% or so recently. Much of the industry runs on insanely optimistic estimates these days, lest nobody wants to fund their exploits any longer. You better look good than feel good.

A report by Carbon Tracker says companies are committing $1.1 trillion over the next decade to projects that require prices above $95 to break even. The Canadian tar sands mostly break even at $80-$100. Some of the Arctic and deepwater projects need $120. Several need $150. Petrobras, Statoil, Total, BP, BG, Exxon, Shell, Chevron and Repsol are together gambling $340 billion in these hostile seas.

Martijn Rats, from Morgan Stanley, says the biggest European oil groups (BP, Shell, Total, Statoil and Eni) spent $161 billion on operations and dividends last year, but generated $121 billion in cash flow. They face a $40 billion deficit even though Brent crude prices were buoyant near $100, due to disruptions in Libya, Iraq and parts of Africa. “Oil development is so expensive that many projects do not make sense,” he said.

The word “gambling” is well chosen. Thousands of billions are laid out on the crap table. Big Oil wants nothing more than rising gas prices. But western economies – plus China, Japan – would implode if prices went even “just” to $150 a barrel. The price itself would increase their profits, but the economic collapse it would cause would take those profits away again.

… the sheer scale of “stranded assets” and potential write-offs in the fossil industry raises eyebrows. IHS Global Insight said the average return on oil and gas exploration in North America has fallen to 8.6%, lower than in 2001 when oil was trading at $27 a barrel.

A large chunk of US investment is going into shale gas ventures that are either underwater or barely breaking even, victims of their own success in creating a supply glut. One chief executive acidly told the TPH Global Shale conference that the only time his shale company ever had cash-flow above zero was the day he sold it – to a gullible foreigner.

The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies says the Eagle Ford Dry Gas field, the Marcellus WC T2 and “C” Counties, Powder River, Cotton Valley, among others, are all losing money at the current Henry Hub spot price of $4.50. “The benevolence of the US capital markets cannot last forever,” it said.

In 2001, when prices were a quarter of what they are, profit margins were higher. That’s how much production costs have gone up in just 13 years. Many if not most shale plays are already losing money, kept alive by financial speculation, not energy returns. But it may take a while before people understand how that works: shale is still lauded as the big savior. Even Ambrose begs to differ:

This does not mean shale has been a failure. Optimists still hope it will reach a “positive inflexion point” in five years or so, the typical pattern for a fledgling industry. … the low-hanging fruit has been picked and the costs are ratcheting up. Three Forks McKenzie in Montana has a break-even price of $91.

Nor does it mean that America has made a mistake. Shale has been a timely shot in the arm, helping the US economy achieve “escape velocity” from the Great Recession, unlike Europe, which lurched back into a double-dip recession. It has whittled down the US current account deficit, now just 2% of GDP. Cheap gas costs – a third of EU prices and a quarter of Asian prices – has brought US industry back from near death, perhaps for long enough to give America another two decades of superpower ascendancy. But making money out of shale is another matter.

Ambrose needs to read up on depletion rates for shale wells. Shale is a financial play, not an energy source. At least, not for more than a few years. “Another two decades of superpower ascendancy” is just silly. And he himself quoted the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, which states very clearly why that is: “The benevolence of the US capital markets cannot last forever.” Nor the benevolence of other capital markets, for that matter.

Then he turns to another issue that faces Big Oil:

Even if the fossil companies navigate the next global downturn more or less intact, they are in the untenable position of booking vast assets that can never be burned without violating global accords on climate change. The IEA says that two-thirds of their reserves become fictional if there is a binding deal limit to CO2 levels to 450 particles per million (ppm), the maximum deemed necessary to stop the planet rising more than two degrees centigrade above pre-industrial levels. It crossed the 400 ppm threshold this spring, the highest in more than 800,000 years.

“Under a global climate deal consistent with a two degrees centigrade world, we estimate that the fossil fuel industry would stand to lose $28 trillion of gross revenues over the next two decades, compared with business as usual,” said Mr Lewis. The oil industry alone would face stranded assets of $19 trillion, concentrated on deepwater fields, tar sands and shale.

Now those are numbers! Now we’re getting somewhere. Can anyone imagine Shell and ExxonMobil giving up on $1.4 trillion in revenue, year after year, for 20 years? I sure can’t. Look, Germany is supposed to be this green economy, but they’ve increased their – brown – coal use substantially recently, to make up for lost nuclear power. It’s nice to talk about ideals, Obama is increasingly chiming in, but legislating Big Oil out of existence is a whole other thing. And so is collapsing your own economy through $15 a gallon prices at the pump.

By their actions, the oil companies implicitly dismiss the solemn climate pledges of world leaders as posturing, though shareholders are starting to ask why management is sinking so much their money into projects with such political risk. This insouciance is courting fate. President Barack Obama’s new Climate Action Plan aims to cut US emissions by 30% below 2005 levels by 2030. His Clean Air Act is a drastic assault on coal-fired power plants, “industrial sabotage by regulatory means” in the words of the industry lobby.

China too is trying to break free of coal after anti-smog protests across the cities of the Eastern Seaboard. It is shutting down its coal-fired plants in Beijing this year. There is a ban on new coal plants in key regions. The Communist Party’s Five-Year Plan aims to cap demand at 3.9 billion tonnes a year up to 2015. Since the country consumes half the world’s coal supply, this has left Australia’s coal industry high and dry, Exhibit number one of assets stranded by a sudden policy change. Peak coal demand is in sight.

Sounds nice, and – almost – believable, but what are we, and our leaders, going to do when these measures raise energy prices beyond affordability? What will be our priority? Cleaner and poor, and richer and dirty? At best, we won’t know the answer to that until we’re forced to provide it; answering it today, from a position of affluence, doesn’t count. As for coal: the harder it gets to find more oil, the more attractive it will seem to switch to the most abundant fossil to keep our feet and our children warm.

In any case, staggering gains in solar power – and soon battery storage as well – threatens to undercut the oil industry with lightning speed, perhaps in a race with cheap nuclear power from a coming generation of molten salt reactors. The US National Renewable Energy Laboratory has already captured 31.1% of the sun’s energy with a solar chip, but records keep being broken. Brokers Sanford Bernstein say we are entering an era of “global energy deflation” where gains in solar technology must relentlessly erode the viability of the fossil nexus, since it goes only in one direction.

Deep sea drilling will become pointless. We can leave the Arctic alone. Once the crossover point is reached – and photovoltaic energy already competes with oil, diesel and liquefied natural gas in much of Asia without subsidies – it must surely turn into a stampede. My guess is that the world energy landscape will already look radically different in the early 2020s.

Sure, renewables are developing, but there are so many issues left to conquer that evoking an 10 year timeline for a “radically different energy landscape” looks wild. Our economies, which are very far from healthy, would need to cough up tens of trillions of dollars to build both equipment and infrastructure, and we don’t and won’t have that kind of money available; we’d need to borrow it, and add to our Andes-high pile of existing debt. The switch, if it ever happens, will take much longer, so long that it’s highly doubtful it will ever happen.

And besides, as mentioned above, who among us is going to tell Big Oil, and all of its major shareholders and highly-placed supporters in Congress and other parliaments, that they’re going to have to leave $28 trillion on the table and walk away? And what do we think their answer will be? They’re zombies, but they have a direct line into the blood of both you and the people you vote for.

it’s nice and all to think up cute little scenarios of how we’re all going to have solar panels and windmills and live in a blessed clean world, but in the real world we live in today, there are deeply entrenched economic and political power divisions and equally deeply vested interests that are not simply going to walk peacefully into the sunset and leave the world’s biggest fortune behind, just so we can do what we want. Reality is always dirtier, and in more than one way, than we like to think.

More importantly, we simply don’t have the wealth left that would allow us to make “the switch” from fossils to renewables. The plunging US markets I see now that I’m finishing this piece are just one more confirmation of that.

If Ever The Stock Market Flashed A ‘Sell’ Signal, It’s Now (MarketWatch)

I know what you’re thinking. You’re thinking: Is this market going to go up another 10%? I have no idea. But this being a powerful market that can blow your account clean off if you’re wrong, you’ve gotta ask yourself: “Do I feel lucky?” Most investors seem to feel pretty confident that this market will never go down. But if you’ve studied bear markets, you know how this story will end. Don’t forget: Human nature never changes.At the point of maximum giddiness (or pain if you’re short-selling), the market always teaches investors a costly lesson. Right now, investors are chasing yield, but all it takes is one bad day to wipe out a year’s worth of gains. Sentiment indicators such as Investors Intelligence are at historic highs (that is bearish), and the RSI Wilder indicator is telling us the market is seriously overbought.

Yes, the market can still go higher, but it’s on borrowed time. Don’t believe me? When you are standing 17,000 points in the air at the top of Dow Mountain, and the market is priced for perfection, there is nowhere to go but down. Although the market still has room to rise, so do interest rates. In fact, the odds are very good that interest rates will creep higher, and this will affect bonds and stocks. There is also an 800-pound gorilla in the room, and that is inflation. Shoppers already know that inflation is spreading. For example, cereal boxes are getting smaller while prices are rising. The price of orange juice and other commodities are skyrocketing. I could give a dozen more examples.

The Fed seems to want inflation, as if it’s desirable. Here’s what I say to the Fed: Be careful what you wish for. Here’s how the market odds look to me: At the most, the upside is 5% or 10%, while the downside is potentially 25% or 30%. I’m not saying the market is going to fall that much, but in previous bear markets that’s exactly what happened (or worse) over several months or years. Like the game of three-card monte, while most investors are celebrating the all-time highs, prudent investors are looking underneath the hood. For example, the number of stocks making new highs is shrinking every week. And the stocks that are making new highs are not leading stocks, but many unknowns. That’s a red flag.

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What else is there?

Art Cashin: ‘Ultra High’ Level Of Leverage In Stock Market (CNBC)

Big moves in a handful of stocks provided traders with a worrying signal—an “ultra-high” level of leverage in the stock market, veteran trader Art Cashin told CNBC on Wednesday. The trend could mean more volatility going forward, he added. Cashin said he saw a dozen stocks make 7% to 8% moves on Tuesday without any specific headlines to justify those swings. That left traders curious, and Cashin said they settled on high levels of leverage as a culprit behind the moves. “People must be three or four times normal leverage,” Cashin said. “We’ve seen margin accounts go up. We knew the hedge funds were playing. But to see extreme moves like that on nonspecific news tells me there’s a lot of leverage out there. … If we start to get a protracted move, it could get very volatile.”

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Over.

Buyback Plunge Another Sign Bull Market Is Nearing Its End (MarketWatch)

Here’s another sign the bull market in stocks may be nearing an end: Companies have dramatically reduced share repurchases. New stock buybacks fell to $23.2 billion in June, the lowest level in a year and a half, according to fund tracker TrimTabs Investment Research. In May, the total was just $24.8 billion, and the monthly average in 2013 was $56 billion. That’s worrisome, according to TrimTabs CEO David Santschi, because “buyback volume has a high positive correlation with stock prices.” How high? Consider the correlation coefficient, a statistic that reflects the degree to which two series tend to zig and zag in lockstep. It ranges from plus 1 (which means the two series are perfectly correlated) to minus 1 (the two move inversely to each other). A zero correlation coefficient would mean there is no detectable relationship between the two series.

According to Santschi, the correlation coefficient between monthly buyback volume and the stock market’s level, for the period from 2006 until this spring, was 0.61. That’s highly statistically significant. A high correlation also makes theoretical sense. That’s because, when a company announces a share-repurchase program, it sends a strong signal that its management really thinks its stock is undervalued — so much so that it’s willing to put its money where its mouth is. So it’s bullish for the overall market when lots of companies are simultaneously announcing such programs. To be sure, the monthly buyback data are quite volatile, so two months of anemic numbers don’t automatically doom the market. Santschi, for one, says that, if the slow pace continues through July, “we will become very concerned.”

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If borrowed money is debt, what is borrowed time called?

‘Rotten Rotation’ Signals Bull Market Living On Borrowed Time (The Tell)

Market bulls, beware.The stock market’s push to another round of record highs has hidden a “rotten rotation” that belies investor fears that the economic-growth story isn’t all it’s cracked up to be, argues Mike Ingram, market strategist at London-based BGC Brokers, in a note. Ingram highlights how bulls are now arguing that there is more equity volatility than indexes suggest. It might seem odd that bulls are actively talking up the kind of volatility that investors — often wrongly, according to Ingram — equate with increased risk. But their conclusion is always “unambiguously upbeat,” he says, with bulls arguing that markets aren’t complacent and that investors are very much engaged and placing active bets on future growth. Needless to say, Ingram isn’t convinced:

It is notable that some of the best-performing sectors in equity markets this year are highly defensive — utilities and health care — while more economically sensitive sectors such as industrials and banks have struggled. In this regard at least, markets have yet to reflect the recovery that economists have been forecasting. Indeed the consensus view that investors position themselves in more cyclically exposed names did little better than pace the market in Q1 2014 and actually underperformed in the last quarter, even in the U.S. where growth seems reasonably entrenched.

He also notes that value stocks are still struggling to outperform growth stocks, which is worrying “because one would normally expect ‘value’ to re-rate as economic growth broadens out and the premium that investors are willing to pay for growth stocks falls.” “This hasn’t really happened,” Ingram says. He observes that even after the occasional “growth scare” over the past few months, notably on the tech-heavy, and therefore growth-heavy, Nasdaq Composite, the index is still poised to challenge its 14-year-old, dot-com-era high. It’s not just equities that are flashing cautious signals, he says. Long-term bonds have defied predictions for a rout to instead rally this year.

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Fed Moves Closer to Choosing Main Stimulus-Exit Tool (Bloomberg)

Federal Reserve officials moved closer to deciding on the main tool they will use to tighten monetary policy when the time comes, most likely next year. Most participants at the Federal Open Market Committee’s June meeting agreed that the interest rate on excess reserves banks keep on deposit at the Fed “should play a central role” in the exit from extraordinary monetary stimulus, according to minutes released today in Washington. Another tool, known as the overnight reverse repurchase facility, “could play a useful supporting role,” according to the minutes. The tool could be used to set the lowest rate at which holders of cash would be willing to lend.

The Fed now pays 0.25% interest on bank reserves deposited overnight at the central bank. By contrast, it pays 0.05% on cash it borrows through its reverse repo facility, which is used by institutions such as money-market funds, which can’t deposit money at the Fed. Many members of the FOMC judged at the June meeting that “a relatively wide spread — perhaps near or above the current level of 20 basis points — would support trading in the federal funds market and provide adequate control over interest rates,” according to the minutes. A narrower spread between the two rates would give the reverse repo facility a bigger role by increasing incentives for depositors to pull cash out of banks and put it in money-market funds in search of higher interest.

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Well, now you know. Want to keep your dough in shares?

Fed Plans To End Bond Purchases In October (MarketWatch)

Federal Reserve revealed in the minutes of its June meeting released Wednesday that it has decided to end its asset-purchase program in October if the economy stays on track. According to the new plan, the Fed will make a $15 billion final reduction at its October meeting, after trimming it by $10 billion at each meeting up to that point. Fed officials said that members of the public had asked them if the Fed would end the program in October or with a final $5 billion reduction in December. Most Fed officials said that the exact end of the tapering issue will have no bearing on the timing of the first rate hike.

The Fed has said that rates would remain near zero for a “considerable time” after the Fed halts its program of bond purchases. An end of the asset purchases will “set the clock on eventual tightening — which we think could start as soon as March 2015,” said Jim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics. Stocks dipped immediately after the Fed minutes were released but quickly moved higher. Bond yields also had a brief move higher after the report. The minutes also reveal that Fed officials had a lengthy discussion of its exit strategy. The central bankers generally agreed to keep reinvesting the proceeds of securities that mature on its balance sheet until after it had hiked interest rates.

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Controlled demolition.

Rate Rise Chatter Grows As Bond Yields Climb (FT)

The radar screens of investors have long been clear of the one blip guaranteed to sound the alarm for risk taking and financial complacency: interest rate rises by central banks. In the UK and US, economists and bond traders are monitoring when the long period of near zero official rates set by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England will finally end, a moment that may matter greatly for roaring equity and credit bull markets. Since the financial crisis peaked in early 2009, investors, homeowners and companies have greatly benefited from aggressive monetary policy actions in the US and UK that have lowered the cost of borrowing and muted market volatility.

Asset prices have boomed with risk taking in stocks and credit approaching levels last seen at the height of the prior boom in 2007, as bullish sentiment has been nurtured by the easy money policies of key central banks. Such investor complacency has not escaped the attention of policy makers, with this week’s Fed meeting minutes from June raising the topic. That comes after Mark Carney, governor of the BoE, caused a stir by saying the first rate hike “could happen sooner than markets currently expect”. While central bankers, including Mr Carney, stress they are in no rush to tighten policy in the absence of real wage growth, chatter about the timing of rate increases stands to grow a lot louder should economic activity continue to pick up over the summer.

Stronger employment figures in the UK and US have already driven policy-sensitive short-dated bond yields noticeably higher in recent weeks. The two-year UK Gilt yield has led the charge, touching its highest level since the summer of 2011, while on Wednesday the US equivalent briefly eclipsed last September’s peak of 0.53%, the high water mark of last year’s interest rate rout. “There is scope for markets to be surprised should the BoE and Fed change course, that’s the nature of monetary policy,” says Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics. But unlike past rate hike periods, he says the eventual peak will be lower. “Both BoE and Fed officials have stressed that they will raise rates gradually and the neutral rate will be lower.

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Yes. They are.

Are Bond Managers Getting Antsy? (CNBC)

Markets have frustrated widespread expectations for bond yields to rise this year, but some bond managers are still antsy and are looking to protect their portfolios’ liquidity against sudden market moves. “A sudden rise in U.S. short rates could easily entice fast outflows from higher yielding bond funds,” Jan Loeys, head of global asset allocation at JPMorgan, said in a note last month. In the post-financial crisis era, tougher regulations mean banks can’t step in to take advantage of fire sales and parts of the credit market could potentially freeze up in a worst-case scenario, he said. The possibility is one that other credit managers considered. “That risk is always there,” said Harsh Agarwal, head of Asia credit research at Deutsche Bank. “With the heavy amount of supply we’ve seen so far this year, there might not be takers on the way down when things turn,” Agarwal said.

But he noted that analysts now expect interest rates won’t rise until 2015, pushing the risks further out. That hasn’t stopped some fund managers from starting to prepare the decks. JPMorgan is trimming the long exposure to bonds in its model portfolio in favor of more liquid assets, such as equities, Loeys said. It isn’t alone in worrying about the risks to bond market liquidity once interest rates begin rising. “We definitely recognize the situation,” said Jonathan Liang, senior portfolio manager for fixed income at AllianceBernstein. “We got a small taste of that last year between May and June with when people panicked.” Since then, AllianceBernstein has bolstered the liquidity management measures in its open-ended mutual funds, he said.

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Abe should be sent to Elba.

Japan Machinery Orders Fall 19.5% On Month In May (Reuters)

Japan’s core machinery orders unexpectedly fell 19.5% in May from the previous month, government data showed on Thursday, casting doubt over the outlook for a pickup in capital spending. The month-on-month decrease in core orders, a highly volatile data series regarded as an indicator of capital spending in the coming six to nine months, compared with economists’ median estimate of a 0.7% gain in a Reuters poll of economists. That followed a 9.1% fall in April, data compiled by the Cabinet Office showed. Compared with a year earlier, core orders, which exclude ships and electric power utilities, declined 14.3% in May, versus a 9.5% gain expected. The Cabinet Office cut its assessment on machinery orders, saying the increasing trend was seen stalling.

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Why trust any number coming out of Beijing?

China Trade Picture Improves, But Data Underwhelm (CNBC)

China released improved trade data that missed expectations on Thursday, figures that suggest external demand remains weak and domestic recovery fragile, analysts say. The country’s exports rose 7.2% from the year ago period, lower than the 10.6% rise predicted by a Reuters poll and after gaining 7% in May. Imports climbed an annual 5.5%, versus Reuters’ forecast for a 5.8% rise but reversing a 1.6% contraction in May. That brings trade balance to a surplus of $31.6 billion, compared with $35.92 billion logged in May. “June export growth was somewhat disappointing given that most had expected a weak base for comparison to push it into double digit territory.

That said, it remains stronger than import growth, which continues to be affected by the slowdown in the property sector,” Julian Evans-Pritchard, China economist with Capital Economics, said it a note. The Australia dollar eased following the news, while most Asian stocks gave up earlier gains while Japan’s Nikkei extended losses. China’s exports gained traction in recent months, helped by an improving U.S. economy and as the government took measures to aid exporters, including providing more tax breaks, credit insurance and currency hedging options. But imports have remained weak on sluggish demand. “We think the downside surprise in June export growth suggests a softer-than-expected pickup in China’s external demand, while the uptick in import growth points to a modest recovery in domestic demand,” said Jian Chang, analyst with Barclays.

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Did we mention China’s as corrupt as can be?

China Said to Probe Alleged Bank of China Money Laundering (Bloomberg)

China’s central bank and currency regulator are investigating a state media report that alleged Bank of China Ltd. broke rules on transferring money overseas, two government officials familiar with the matter said. The probe focuses on whether Bank of China violated regulations in its operations or aided money laundering, the people said, asking not to be named as they aren’t authorized to speak publicly on the matter. Starting an investigation doesn’t mean the Beijing-based bank has done anything wrong, they said. Bank of China, the nation’s largest foreign-exchange lender, yesterday denied a report by China Central Television claiming that it circumvented the rules by helping customers transfer unlimited amounts of yuan overseas and convert it into other currencies through a product called “Youhuitong.”

The bank said it introduced a cross-border yuan transfer service in 2011 with the knowledge of authorities. Chinese foreign-exchange rules cap the maximum amount of yuan that individuals are allowed to convert into other currencies at $50,000 each year and ban them from transferring yuan abroad directly. Policy makers have taken steps in recent years including allowing freer movements of capital in and out of China as they seek to boost the global stature of the yuan. Media reports referring to “an ‘underground bank’ and ‘money laundering’ are inconsistent with the facts,” Bank of China said in a statement on its website yesterday. The cross-border yuan transfer service only allows money to be moved for emigration and overseas property investment, it said. Youhuitong targets customers who wish to invest in or migrate to North America, Australia and some European countries, CCTV reported, referring to documents shown by unidentified Bank of China employees.

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Yay! 1000% more debt!

China Debt Seen Jumping Tenfold as Stocks Overtake Japan by 2030 (Bloomberg)

China’s corporate bond issuance will surge 10-fold by 2030 and the nation’s stock market will overtake the U.K. and Japan to become the world’s second largest, according to Credit Suisse. Bond sales in the biggest developing country will increase to $32 trillion, while the market value of stocks will jump to $54 trillion, lagging only the U.S., the Swiss bank’s research institute said in a report yesterday. Emerging markets’ share of global equity market capitalization will increase to 39% by 2030 from 22% now, the bank said. With the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index down 66% from its peak in 2007, the government has been opening up its capital markets by doubling the daily trading band of the yuan and allowing foreign investors to buy the nation’s shares through Hong Kong’s stock exchange.

China’s $9 trillion economy is already the world’s second largest behind the U.S. “The disparity between developed and emerging nations in the global capital market universe will close by 2030,” Stefano Natella, the global head of equity research at Credit Suisse in New York, said in a statement. “This should be driven by a disproportionately large contribution from emerging market equity and corporate bond supply and demand.” China’s equity market is the world’s fifth largest with a market capitalization of $3.4 trillion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The U.S. is the biggest at $23.5 trillion.

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Catch fire with fire.

US Uses New Tactic To Crack Laundering Cases (Reuters)

U.S. prosecutors are using a new tactic to crack down on banks that fail to fight money laundering: systematically asking suspects in a wide range of criminal cases to help them follow the money back to their bankers. The efforts are paying off in probes of banks and other financial institutions now filling the prosecution pipeline, according to Jonathan Lopez, who last month left his post as deputy chief of the Justice Department’s Money Laundering and Bank Integrity Unit (MLBIU). “Asking criminals the simple question ‘Who is moving your money?’ can lead the Department of Justice to a financial institution’s doorstep,” said Lopez, who declined to identify specific targets. The department confirmed the stepped up reliance on criminal informants in anti-money laundering investigations, but also declined to discuss probes underway.

The four-year-old MLBIU, which includes a dozen prosecutors, is responsible for insuring that financial institutions adhere to U.S. laws including the main U.S. anti-money laundering law, the Bank Secrecy Act (BSA). It has filled in an enforcement gap among federal financial regulators who lack the capacity or expertise to aggressively pursue money-laundering cases. The Justice Department has begun seeking banking information not only from perpetrators of fraud and drug traffickers, but also from suspects linked to the full range of criminal activity, said Lopez, who is now an attorney at Orrick, Herrington & Sutcliffe LLP in Washington. Many criminals seeking reduced punishment have pointed fingers at banks, casinos, money transfer businesses, check cashers, broker-dealers and other financial institutions, he said.

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Kick the loonie!

The Market Could Be Shocked By The Bank Of Canada (CNBC)

The Bank of Canada has a problem: Bank Governor Stephen Poloz was counting on a weak currency to boost exports and drive the economic recovery but things haven’t gone entirely his way. The USD/CAD started the year around 1.06, rose to about 1.12 in March and has since fallen back to around 1.06. In Q1 the CAD was the world’s worst performing major currency, with a total return of -3.5% vs USD; in Q2 it was the best performing G-10 currency, with a total return of +3.8%. The reason for the currency’s good performance is that investors became more confident about Canada’s outlook as the U.S. economy accelerated and energy prices turned up. According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Commitment of Traders report, speculators had been considerably short CAD since early 2013, but in the most recent reporting week they flipped to being a tiny bit long (about 2,700 contracts). It’s not much, but the fact that they’re no longer short is significant.

However, this could be the case of a self-destroying prophecy. Everyone knows a self-fulfilling prophecy: when all investors think something is likely to happen, for example that gold is going to go up, then they buy gold and of course it go up! A self-defeating prophecy would be the opposite: one that might go right, but since everyone acts on it, it goes wrong. That’s what I believe is going to happen here. The Canadian economy is indeed improving, but a good part of that improvement is due to exports. The latest Business Outlook Survey showed that the Canadian economy’s biggest hope remains overseas demand, particularly from the U.S. Exporters seemed notably more optimistic about the future than companies supplying the domestic market. So the Bank of Canada has to keep the currency from appreciating in order to keep the recovery going. Governor Poloz, who was previously the head of Canada’s export-promotion agency Export Development Canada, naturally understands this.

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Draghi’s a fool. Get out of the EU!

Draghi Says Brussels Needs Higher Powers as Leaders Quarrel (Bloomberg)

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the region needs more-centralized powers to push governments to overhaul their economies. “There is a case for some form of common governance over structural reforms,” Draghi said in a speech in London yesterday. “This is because the outcome of structural reforms, a continuously high level of productivity and competitiveness, is not merely in a country’s own interest. It is in the interest of the union as a whole.” Draghi has repeatedly said the ECB’s ultra-loose monetary policy isn’t sufficient to sustain the euro area’s fragile recovery if governments backslide.

European Union finance ministers meeting in Brussels this week signaled a willingness to give politicians extra leeway so long as they take measures to fix their economies. They then clashed as Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi pushed back against austerity measures. “Historical experience, for example of the International Monetary Fund, makes a convincing case that the discipline imposed by supranational bodies can make it easier to frame the debate on reforms at the national level,” Draghi said. “I would see merits in initiating, as a one-off, a new convergence process within the euro area – one which ensures that all countries are truly in a position to benefit from membership.”

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Bail in your banker’s bonus.

Germany to Force Creditors to Prop Up Struggling Banks in 2015 (WSJ)

Germany plans to force creditors into propping up struggling banks beginning in 2015, one year earlier than required under European-wide plans that set rules for failing financial institutions, according to a senior German finance ministry official.From next year, struggling bank creditors, in addition to shareholders, will have to help financial institutions, covering up to 8% of liabilities, before the banks can tap Germany’s financial markets stabilization fund SoFFin, said the official, who declined to be identified. Germany also plans to operate the SoFFin rescue fund until the end of 2015 to bridge the time until a European-wide restructuring fund is in place. The stabilization fund was scheduled to be dissolved this year. The plan comes as Europe’ banking supervisor, the European Banking Authority, conducts a new round of stress tests aimed at making the European Union’s financial sector more resilient. The results, expected for the end of October, might reveal a need for fresh capital.

Banks failing the tests have then up to six months to raise fresh capital from private investors. Bankers say that keeping SoFFin alive longer is a sign that the government wants to make sure that the country’s regional public-sector lenders, or Landesbanken, would have a last resort should the stress test unveil a capital shortfall. The move also underscores that the separate institution winding down the bad assets from former German lender Hypo Real Estate needs to continue its work. Germany’s government earlier this year halted the planned sale of Hypo Real Estate’s Dublin-based Depfa Bank unit, choosing instead to wind down the unit. Germany’s new bail-in rules are part of a package of German legislation on the European banking union, an ambitious project to centralize bank supervision in the euro zone and, when banks fail, to organize their rescue or winding-up at a European level.

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You betcha.

Mortgage Deals Leave Thousands Vulnerable If House Prices Fall (Telegraph)

A “glut” of mortgage deals aimed at buyers with small deposits pushed the number of homeowners vulnerable to a slump in property prices to a post-crisis high in June, according to the UK’s biggest chartered surveyor. The number of households that took out mortgages with deposits of 15pc or less of a property’s value rose to 10,898 in June, up from 9,750 in May and 7,166 a year ago, according to e.surv. This means that high loan-to-value (LTV) lending now accounts for one in five of all new mortgages, the highest level since April 2008. This compares with just one in nine mortgages a year ago.

The e.surv data also revealed a prominent north-south divide in high LTV lending in June. More than a quarter of borrowers in the North West and Yorkshire took out high LTV loans, compared with just 7pc in London. It said lower wages in these regions meant an increasing number of borrowers were struggling to save for a deposit. While the current levels are below those seen pre-crisis, when the number of high LTV loans reached 41,745 in February 2007 – or one in three loans – it means a growing number of households are at risk of falling into negative equity should prices fall sharply. Negative equity occurs when the size of a mortgage exceeds the price of the property it is secured against. Many homeowners were plunged into negative equity after the financial crisis because they took out high LTV mortgages only for property prices to fall in the downturn.

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Lots of economies hide unemployment rates inside “self-employment”.

Fall In UK Wages 20% Steeper Than Thought (Guardian)

Average wages in Britain have fallen further than official figures show after a huge shift into low-paid self-employment since the financial crash, according to a report by a leading thinktank. The fall in wages could be 20% greater than currently estimated across the whole workforce once Britain’s 4.5 million self-employed people are included in pay figures, said the Resolution Foundation. A real-terms fall of 10% in average wages since 2008 would increase to more than 12% if a 27% fall in self-employed incomes is taken into account. Before the Bank of England’s decision on interest rates at its monthly meeting, the thinktank said the exclusion of pay figures for the self-employed gave a skewed picture of the health of the UK’s labour market.

Officials on the Bank’s monetary policy committee, which sets interest rates, are understood to be concerned that the exclusion of self-employed incomes from official figures hampers their efforts to gauge when to increase the cost of credit. Laura Gardiner, a senior analyst at the Resolution Foundation and the author of the paper, said official figures used by the Bank and other policymakers gave “a picture that’s incomplete at best and sometimes misleading”. She said: “What we know about earnings is central to our understanding of the recovery and the timing of interest rate rises so it’s crucial that we equip ourselves with the best possible wage measure.” More than 700,000 people have declared themselves self-employed since 2008, bringing the total number of people who work for themselves to 4.5 million or one in seven of the total. Over the same period only 260,000 workers have been added to the ranks of the employed on a net basis, said the report.

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Price Of UK Electricity To Double Over Next 20 Years (Guardian)

The price of electricity could double over the next two decades, according to forecasts published on Thursday by the National Grid, the company responsible for keeping Britain’s lights on. The current price of wholesale electricity is below £50 per megawatt hour but could soar to over £100 by 2035 under a “high case” example used in the Grid’s UK Future Energy Scenarios report. The group, which is the main pipes and pylons operator in England and Wales, predicts the wholesale gas price could rise from 70p per therm to around 100p per therm under another high case scenario. The cost of electricity has already risen 20% since 2009 and the company blames future increases on the number of coal-fired power stations being closed plus the cost of subsidising wind farms.

“Electricity prices for the high case and base case scenarios are assumed to increase over the next few years due to decreasing margins as coal-fired plants retire due to the Large Combustion Plants Directive [European anti-pollution] legislation and some gas-fired plants are mothballed,” says the document. “All prices increase post-2020 as the costs of low carbon generation increasingly factor into the power price,” it adds. The Grid admits the estimates are based on the lowest “baseload” cost at which the electricity is available rather than any “peak” costs during periods of high demand. The latest forecasts – although combined with more modest price rises under different scenarios – will worry householders and energy-intensive businesses already struggling with the impact of higher bills.

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Fossil Industry Is The Subprime Danger Of This Cycle (AEP)

The epicentre of irrational behaviour across global markets has moved to the fossil fuel complex of oil, gas and coal. This is where investors have been throwing the most good money after bad. They are likely to be left holding a clutch of worthless projects as renewable technology sweeps in below radar, and the Washington-Beijing axis embraces a greener agenda. Data from Bank of America show that oil and gas investment in the US has soared to $200bn a year. It has reached 20pc of total US private fixed investment, the same share as home building. This has never happened before in US history, even during the Second World War when oil production was a strategic imperative. The International Energy Agency (IEA) says global investment in fossil fuel supply doubled in real terms to $900bn from 2000 to 2008 as the boom gathered pace. It has since stabilised at a very high plateau, near $950bn last year.

The cumulative blitz on exploration and production over the past six years has been $5.4 trillion, yet little has come of it. Output from conventional fields peaked in 2005. Not a single large project has come on stream at a break-even cost below $80 a barrel for almost three years. “What is shocking is that upstream costs in the oil industry have risen threefold since 2000 but output is up just 14pc,” said Mark Lewis, from Kepler Cheuvreux. The damage has been masked so far as big oil companies draw down on their cheap legacy reserves. “They are having to look for oil in the deepwater fields off Africa and Brazil, or in the Arctic, where it is much more difficult. The marginal cost for many shale plays is now $85 to $90 a barrel.”

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Flint is Michael Moore territory. Been a desert for ages.

After Detroit, Another City Ponders Bankruptcy (AP)

As Detroit works to emerge from bankruptcy following a court-supervised overhaul, another Michigan city with strong auto industry bonds could be on the brink of beginning the same process, the latest sign that the spate of municipal defaults may not have ended. Flint, which was the birthplace of General Motors and once had 200,000 residents, also has suffered a spectacular drop in population and factory jobs and a corresponding rise in property abandonment, much like its insolvent big brother an hour’s drive south. If a judge rules against Flint’s effort to cut its retiree health care benefits, the city is expected to join about a dozen cities or counties to seek court relief since the beginning of the recession. “If we don’t get any relief in the courts … we are headed over the same cliff as Detroit,” said Darnell Earley, the emergency manager appointed by Gov. Rick Snyder to manage Flint’s finances. “We can’t even sustain the budget we have if we have to put more money into health care” for city workers.

Before Detroit, the largest local government bankruptcy filing was in Jefferson County, Alabama in November 2011. The county emerged last year after reorganization of its $4 billion in debt. Court proceedings continue for the California cities of Stockton, San Bernardino, and Mammoth Lakes, all of which filed in 2012. The greatest threat of new cases may be in Michigan, where about a dozen cities, many of them small, and four school districts are under state control. The state unemployment rate still is 7.3%, and some entities remain saddled with underfunded pension plans. That Flint might follow Detroit, which filed in July 2013, isn’t surprising given their shared circumstances. Both once were boomtowns brimming with auto jobs for collars white and blue. General Motors employed about 80,000 in the area in the early 1970s. Fewer than 8,000 GM jobs remain. The city’s population has fallen to just below 100,000.

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Anyone surprised?

Second Silent Spring? Bird Declines Linked to Popular Pesticides (NatGeo)

Pesticides don’t just kill pests. New research out of the Netherlands provides compelling evidence linking a widely used class of insecticides to population declines across 14 species of birds. Those insecticides, called neonicotinoids, have been in the news lately due to the way they hurt bees and other pollinators. This new paper, published online Wednesday in Nature, gets at another angle of the story—the way these chemicals can indirectly affect other creatures in the ecosystem. Scientists from Radboud University in Nijmegen and the Dutch Centre for Field Ornithology and Birdlife Netherlands (SOVON) compared long-term data sets for both farmland bird populations and chemical concentrations in surface water. They found that in areas where water contained high concentrations of imidacloprid—a common neonicotinoid pesticide—bird populations tended to decline by an average of 3.5% annually.

“I think we are the first to show that this insecticide may have wide-scale, significant effects on our environment,” said Hans de Kroon, an expert on population dynamics at Radboud University and one of the authors of the paper. Pesticides and birds: If this story sounds familiar, it’s probably because Rachel Carson wrote about it back in 1962. Carson’s seminal Silent Spring was the first popular attempt to warn the world that pesticides were contributing to the “sudden silencing of the song of birds.” “I think there is a parallel, of course,” said Ruud Foppen, an ornithologist at SOVON and co-author of the Nature paper. Foppen says that while Carson battled against a totally different kind of chemicals—organophosphates like DDT—the effects he’s seeing in the field are very much the same. Plainly stated, neonicotinoids are harming biodiversity. “In this way, we can compare it to what happened decades ago,” he said. “And if you look at it from that side, we didn’t learn our lessons.”

In the past 20 years, neonicotinoids (pronounced nee-oh-NIK-uh-tin-oyds) have become the fastest growing class of pesticides. They’re extremely popular among farmers because they’re effective at killing pests and easy to apply. Instead of loading gallons and gallons of insecticide into a crop duster and spraying it over hundreds of acres, farmers can buy seeds that come preloaded with neonicotinoid coatings. Scientists refer to neonicotinoids as “systemic” pesticides because they affect the whole plant rather than a single part. As the pretreated seed grows, it incorporates the insecticide into every bud and branch, effectively turning the plant itself into a pest-killing machine.

This lock, stock, and barrel approach to crop protection means that no matter where a locust or rootworm likes to nibble—the root, the stem, the flower—the invader winds up with a bellyful of neurotoxins. “The plants become poison not only for the insects that farmers are targeting, but also for beneficial insects like bees,” said Jennifer Sass, a senior scientist with the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) who’s been building a case against the widespread use of neonicotinoids. The pesticide’s top-to-bottom coverage means the plants’ flowers, pollen, and nectar are all poisonous too. Worse still, Sass says, neonicotinoids can persist in the soil for years. This gives other growing things a chance to come into contact with and absorb the chemicals.

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