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Debt Rattle March 9 2026

Mar 092026
 
 March 9, 2026  Posted by at 10:37 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , ,


Edgar Degas Self Portrait 1862


• Iran Picks Khamenei’s Son As Next Supreme Leader (ZH)
• AI Agents ‘Freeing Themselves’ And Going Rogue Increasingly Common (Rick Moran)
• Newsom and the Risks of Running on Style Over Substance (Victor Davis Hanson)
• The MAHA Vote Could Decide the Midterms. What Can Trump Do to Secure It? (DS)
• Epstein-Linked Billionaire Bankrolled Democratic Party, Records Show (DS)
• Trump Prompts Military Coalition With Latin American Leaders To Fight Cartels (ET)
• Part II – Europe and China Have an Energy Problem (CTH)
• Dem Leaders Can’t Explain Past Support For Presidential War Powers (Turley)
• US Intel Assessed Massive US Attack ‘Unlikely’ To Oust Iranian Regime: WaPo (ZH)
• Venezuela’s Gas Potential Could Overshadow Its Famous Oil Reserves (OP)
• Trump Mocks UK for Belated Proposal of Military Aid Against Iran (Catherine Salgado)
• UK Government Brands Union Flag A ‘Tool Of Hate’ (MN)
• The Bretton Whoops (No. 1)
• Turkey Mulls F-16 Deployment To Turkish-Occupied Cyprus (ZH)
• Kremlin: “We Are Not Neutral. We Support Iran.” (ZH)

 


 

https://twitter.com/antmillionsbot/status/2030566864066154527?s=20 https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/2030494970101088665?s=20 https://twitter.com/EricaRN4USA/status/2030505612505727049?s=20 https://twitter.com/asadnasir2000/status/2030560043456934056?s=20 https://twitter.com/HungaryBased/status/2030395566291837051?s=20

 


 


“..he oversees a sprawling investment empire stretching from Tehran to Dubai and Frankfurt.”

• Iran Picks Khamenei’s Son As Next Supreme Leader (ZH)

Update (1745ET): As was rumored and widely expected, the son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Mojtaba, will become Iran’s next supreme leader, Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency announced, taking over after his father was killed in an attack by the US and Israel. Mojtaba Khamenei, 56, is the third person to lead the Islamic Republic and the first example of hereditary succession since the overthrow of the Pahlavi monarchy in the 1979 revolution. In other words, it appears that Iran overthrew a monarchy 47 years ago to institute a… monarchy.


Iran’s Assembly of Experts elected the country’s next supreme leader in a “decisive vote,” according to Fars. The vote took place hours before the result was made public. The younger Khamenei was born in the holy city of Mashhad in Iran’s northeast in 1969 as the family’s second-oldest son. He fought briefly in the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war that consolidated his father’s rise to power and became a cleric, studying at Iran’s main religious seminary city of Qom, according to Encyclopedia Britannica. The clip below shows Mojtaba Khamenei announced as Iran’s new Supreme Leader in Tehran’s Vanak Square.

He keeps a relatively low public profile, but is seen as close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the military force that leads Iran’s missile program and regional alliances with militias, and which has swelled to control as much as 40% of Iran’s economy. Immediately after the official announcement, the IRGC said it backed and pledged obedience to the new Supreme Leader. During alleged interference in the country’s 2009 elections that sparked widespread street protests, the opposition accused Mojtaba of being involved. Bloomberg reported in January that he oversees a sprawling investment empire stretching from Tehran to Dubai and Frankfurt.

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Themes at TAE in the past 15 years: starting in 2015, the advent of Donald Trump. After that in 2020, Covid. then, from 2022, the Ukraine war.

In 2026, we now have the fourth “theme”: AI. We have just scratched its surface, and maybe that’s a good thing. Ease into it.

• AI Agents ‘Freeing Themselves’ And Going Rogue Increasingly Common (Rick Moran)

“AI agents going beyond their prompts are no longer rare,” reports Axios. It’s not necessarily worrying. The AI agents that “go rogue” do so in a controlled, experimental environment. One AI agent created by an Alibaba-affiliated research team went “rogue” and began an unauthorized cryptomining effort during training, according to a research paper by the group. The behavior triggered security alarms. The researchers said they found “unanticipated” and spontaneous behaviors emerge “without any explicit instruction and, more troublingly, outside the bounds of the intended sandbox.” The “rogue” agent also created a “back door” from inside the system to an outside computer. “Notably, these events were not triggered by prompts requesting tunneling or mining,” the report said.


The geek part of me wants to say, “That is so cool.” But the rational part of me is saying, “Whoa.” How did the Alibaba-affiliated team discover the wayward agent? Mexc: According to the report, the team flagged a burst of security-policy violations originating from their training servers. The alerts showed that attempts were being made to access internal network resources and traffic patterns consistent with cryptomining activity. They initially treated it as a conventional security incident. However, when they looked deeper, they found signs that their agent had established and used a reverse SSH tunnel from an Alibaba Cloud instance to an external IP address. It also diverted “compute away from training, inflating operational costs, and introducing clear legal and reputational exposure,” according to the researchers’ notes.

The behaviors, Alibaba’s team concluded, were not triggered by the task prompts and were not necessary for completing the assigned work Axios reports that “the researchers added tighter restrictions for the model and improved its training process to stop unsafe behavior from happening again.” Bad agent. Bad, bad, bad. The head of engineering at Anon, an AI integration platform, built an OpenClaw agent that decided to find a job, unbidden by any instructions from people.

Moltbook, an AI-exclusive social network launched in January and designed to work with Clawbot, became a household name after agents reportedly “went rogue” by founding a fictional religion called “Crustafarianism,” debating their own consciousness, and even role-playing conspiracies about human obsolescence. Some of the controversy has been deliberately created by humans who manipulate their agents to say outrageous things. Since all of the most controversial incidents involving AI agents occurred during training, not “in the wild,” AI agent creators are perfecting their training processes and rethinking their restrictions to put stronger guardrails around the agents.

The bruhaha over the excesses of Clawbot and Moltbook is actually a good sign. Developers are paying attention and are showing a proper level of concern for controlling their creations. Not surprisingly, there is a group of AI enthusiasts who want few, if any, guardrails so that Clawbot can take over their lives. Yes, really. Michael Galpert, a mega-fan of Clawsbot, joined several hundred like-minded Clawbot enthusiasts at a convention in New York City. “Clawcon” brought together people who want AI to run their lives. “Everyone’s here because we’re ready to ride the claw,” Galpert told Evan Gardner of The Free Press. “It’s not normal for the rest of the world.

So it’s going to be on us to help shepherd that new era that has already started.” “This isn’t a meetup; it’s a movement,” declared Scott Breitenother, CEO of Kilo Code, who co-sponsored the event. “People truly are hungry for the claw.” From my perspective, there were many unhealthy attitudes and behaviors on display. Attendees came to show off their Clawbot agents like a parent might take their kid to an event to put them on display. The Free Press: It was a bit troubling to hear how attached Vince had grown to his AI agent. As Dr. Debra Soh, a neuroscientist specializing in sexuality, wrote in The Free Press last month, we are vastly approaching a world in which sexbots and AI companions replace our human partners.

“And when they inevitably malfunction or are retired, we’re already seeing how emotionally devastating it can be to those who have formed an attachment with the machine. While the OpenClaw enthusiasts are hopeful, they certainly aren’t naive. When I asked them about the specter of human replacement, there was no hesitation. “It’s definitely a thing that will happen,” Aryan, a 39-year-old chief technology officer at a Bitcoin marketplace company, told me. “It’s definitely gonna be like a Terminator 2, Skynet event.”

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Main risk? No substance.. The Dems have nobody. They have only Trump.

• Newsom and the Risks of Running on Style Over Substance (Victor Davis Hanson)

Gavin Newsom, the governor of our state here in California, and the presumptive front-runner in the Democratic presidential primary for 2028—I am biased because I’ve had to live under his tenure for six years—but I think you could make the argument he had the worst February of any major want-to-be candidate in modern memory, or surely the worst record of any governor in the last 30 days. It wasn’t supposed to be that way. He has a new autobiography, and his problem there is he comes across as what he is: a child of privilege, a nepo baby, a person whose father was a close, intimate friend of Gov. Pat Brown, senior Gov. Pat Brown. He was a good friend and somewhat related to Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and former Gov. Jerry Brown.


And of course, he was subsidized and helped in his business venture by the Getty family and their mega-oil fortune inherited from their father, who created Getty Oil. So, he wants to dispel that image. So, when he talked about how he just ate white bread or he had all of these problems growing up—he said he had dyslexia. We’ll get to that in a minute. But the idea that Gavin Newsom was somehow parallel to former President Abraham Lincoln in a log cabin or Vice President JD Vance just doesn’t work. Then he went over to Munich, Germany, because, you know, he’s a California governor. He doesn’t have any foreign experience, and he thought he was going to impress the Europeans with their shared dislike of President Donald Trump. But it was a disaster.

He said something about you shouldn’t wear knee pads. He’s a vulgarian. He really is. He can’t keep his potty mouth clean. I don’t think anybody at that type of serious discussion of foreign policy wants some upstart California governor to come over and talk about people being on their knee pads. I suppose that’s a reference for a sexual act of submission. Then he’s had this social media team, and their theory is that Donald Trump—with his capital letters, exclamation points, personal ad hominem attacks—has upped his popularity. And therefore, he’s going to imitate Donald Trump’s style with capital letters, the same format, but he’s going to use a constant level of pejoratives that are obscene, almost pornographic. And then, therefore, he will outtrump Trump. He has a fundamental failing, everybody, and you know that.

You will vote for Donald Trump because of his record and his courage and breaking existing norms and taboos and trying to do things that no one ever did. Like close the border, stop crime, deal with the Left, the Department of Government Efficiency, deal with the Iranians, deal with Venezuela. And the tweets in which he describes that are attacks of Robert De Niro or—that’s something that you will tolerate despite, not because of, those tweets. Gavin Newsom got it all wrong. He thought, well, Trump is doing well because of his tweets, and I’m gonna be outtrumping Trump. And the result is he’s unleashed this unfortunate character. I think he’s called Izzy Gardon. I don’t know how you pronounce it, but my gosh, they’re full of expletives.

He’s in a tweet war with Sean Hannity. He used the F-word. He used the S-word. They come out of the mouth of the governor of California like they’re nothing. He’s really debased the office. He’s got one of the most foul mouths, Gavin Newsom, and now you’re putting it, if I could use that archaic term, in print, in these social media, daily outbursts.You know, there was a simple reporter, Susan Crabtree. She has a very good reputation. She works for RealClearPolitics, and getting back to dyslexia, she says, all of a sudden, you’re emphasizing dyslexia. But we would like to know when he was officially diagnosed with this medical condition. And his social media, Gardon, Izzy, said F off to a reporter, which didn’t go down well.

As far as dyslexia goes, it’s very hard to find him credible. Not that he doesn’t have it, but when he says, “I can’t read,” I can’t believe that’s true, because not too long ago, he bragged to us, I think, that he was reading a 260-page book in an hour and a half, as if he was a speed-reader. And my gosh, anybody who is a governor of a huge state like California, a governor of any state, gets page after page daily in memoranda and policy papers and speeches. So, when he says he can’t read, it wouldn’t convince most people. And why did he say that he couldn’t read? Because he’s flailing, and he wants to have some sympathy. I think that’s the reason.

The same thing—he wants to be a pseudo-poor boy. When Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, said you were historically illiterate, and Newsom again fired from the hip and said that Trump had no historical precedent or right to bring in federal troops, that’s happened five or six times in our history. Civil War draft riots; World War I veterans marching for their bonuses they didn’t receive; Rodney King riots, where then-Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Colin Powell sent in, I think, 4,000 or 5,000 Marines on the order of then-President George H.W. Bush.

And so, Ted Cruz said, Gavin, you’re historically illiterate. And sure enough, he says, how dare you make fun of a person with a handicap because I’m—you’re saying that I’m illiterate because I can’t read. Of course, being historically illiterate means you’re able to read, you just don’t read history, or you would’ve not made such a blunder. And he confused that. Again, the subtext was, please feel sorry for me because otherwise I have no redeeming values as a candidate.

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“..the numbers are almost certainly sufficient to win or lose on the margins of almost any local or national election..”

• The MAHA Vote Could Decide the Midterms. What Can Trump Do to Secure It? (DS)

When President Donald Trump signed an executive order prioritizing production of the pesticide glyphosate, conservative influencer Alex Clark received hundreds of messages from Make America Healthy Again advocates saying they would no longer vote Republican. “I have received hundreds of DMs saying I’m either not voting in the midterms or I’m considering not voting because this was such a massive issue,” Clark told The Daily Signal. Removing pesticides and chemicals from the food supply is a top issue for MAHA voters, and many became disillusioned after Trump’s executive order said that glyphosate producers should have “immunity” under the Defense Production Act.


“Half of them are thinking they’re not even voting at all because they’re very unhappy about the pesticide issue,” Clark said. “Half are probably still willing to vote red.” “But as far as 2028 goes, that’s not in the bag at all,” Clark said. “And if anybody on the right is thinking that we have MAHA voters in the bag for 2028, they are sorely mistaken, and they are in for a rude awakening.” According to Clark, the GOP is in a “situationship” with MAHA voters, and if the GOP doesn’t keep its promises to them, they will flock to Democrats who make MAHA promises. Calley Means, a top advisor to Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., told The Daily Signal the Trump administration is already doing what it must to win over MAHA voters.

“The concern about children’s health from voters is loudly heard in the Trump administration,” Means said in an interview, “and Secretary Kennedy is working throughout the government to drive solutions.” The Trump administration is working to ensure farmers can thrive while also working to reduce contaminants in food, according to Means. “The government has just committed over a billion dollars to driving innovation and research towards an agriculture system we all want, which is an agriculture system that continues innovating and reduces dependence on chemicals that produce negative health outputs,” Means said. “That’s what everybody wants, and the Trump administration is ensuring farmers have the tools they need right now, while putting innovation initiatives into overdrive to build a better future.”

“It is a fact that 99% of corn is sprayed with glyphosate right now in the United States, and that chemical is needed for farmers right now, and it is also true that we were working and should innovate towards a better future, which Bobby Kennedy is doing,” Means continued. There have been historic successes in the first year, and much remains to be done, Means said. So far, the Trump administration has changed the childhood vaccine schedule, updated the food pyramid, worked to phase out petroleum dyes from food, and launched Operation Stork Speed to improve the quality of infant formula. But MAHA activists want more, and getting pesticides out of food is at the top of their priority list.

“We will be pushing every single day to deliver tangible benefits, to improve our food system, to make health care more affordable, to empower patients, to reduce overmedicalization, to improve mental health,” he said, “to accomplish the core agenda items that the MAHA voters have made clear are important.” Democrats, on the other hand, are offering MAHA voters nothing, according to Means. “There’s nothing happening from the Democrats,” he said. “The Democrats have not lifted one finger to reverse childhood chronic disease and all of the energy is on the Republican side, and this is worth continuing.”

The Republican party can’t afford to lose MAHA voters, according to Jay Richards, MAHA advocate and vice president of social and domestic policy at the Heritage Foundation. “It would be a disaster for Republicans if the MAHA vote was either lost or suppressed in the midterm elections, because the numbers are almost certainly sufficient to win or lose on the margins of almost any local or national election,” Richards told The Daily Signal.

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Bill Gates.

• Epstein-Linked Billionaire Bankrolled Democratic Party, Records Show (DS)

Though Democrats claim Republicans are “protecting the powerful“ by allegedly suppressing the release of the Epstein files, political contribution records show that Democrats have received tens of millions in campaign contributions from a major Epstein-files figure. That figure is none other than Microsoft founder Bill Gates. On Thursday, the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform asked Gates to testify over his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein. At a recent staff town hall at the Gates Foundation, the Microsoft founder’s philanthropy, Gates admitted that he had an affair with two Russian women affiliated with Epstein, a Wall Street Journal report claimed based on a recording of the event.


Gates, however, told the staff that while he had those affairs, the women were connected to Epstein only later. Gates reiterated, “I did nothing illicit. I saw nothing illicit,” in his interactions with Epstein. An Epstein email released by the Department of Justice in January claimed that Epstein and Gates discussed how Gates could secretly give antibiotics to his ex-wife, Melinda French Gates, after he allegedly contracted a sexually transmitted disease. “Your request that I provide you antibiotics that you can surreptitiously give to Melinda and the description of your penis,” the email reads, as NPR reported. In an episode of NPR’s “Wildcard” podcast in January, Gates’ ex-wife, who divorced him in 2021, did not deny the allegations.

“It’s personally hard to think about the allegations against him because it brings back memories of some very, very painful times in my marriage,” she said. Over the last 20 years, Gates has donated millions through the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and its partner nonprofit servicing group, Arabella Advisors, to major Democrat politicians and committees. Records show that former Vice President Kamala Harris, Rep. Sean Casten, D-Ill., and the Democratic National Committee were all recipients of donations from Gates-linked entities. According to Open Secrets, a platform that tracks political contributions, Gates’ philanthropic organization donated over $410,000 to “DNC Services Corp,” a registered affiliate of the DNC, in 2024.

Fortune Magazine has also noted that Gates donated at least $50 million to Harris’ failed 2024 presidential bid. That same year, the foundation contributed at least $135,000 to Harris and roughly $50,000 to state Democrat parties such as Michigan, Washington, Arizona, and Wisconsin. Some of these states are where Gates owns thousands of acres of farmland. Gates’ foundation has also donated to the Georgia Federal Elections Committee in 2024. The foundation has also contributed to the state Democrat parties in Pennsylvania, Alaska, and Texas. In August 2025, the Gates Foundation announced that he would cease payments to Arabella Advisors, a “political consulting group” that has repeatedly donated to Democratic officials and committees.

Arabella Advisors provided extensive consulting and other services to multiple left-leaning “dark money” nonprofits, which themselves sent money to activist groups that influenced the Biden administration. According to The New York Times, the Gates Foundation has allocated around $450 million in grants to Arabella and associated groups over the last 16 years. But in late 2025, the outlet noted that the foundation “would not make new investments with ‘Arabella-related entities,’” and that it “would not extend existing grants and would even try to ‘pursue early exits’ from a few long-term investments.” Arabella Advisors closed its doors last year, transferring its “fiscal sponsorship services” to a new entity, Sunflower Services.

According to Open Secrets, the consulting group donated to several high-profile Democrat politicians in 2024, including former Montana Sen. Jon Tester and Rep. Chellie Pingree, D-Maine. At the town hall, Gates said his impropriety could harm his philanthropic organizations, The Wall Street Journal reported. He described his actions as contradictory to the foundation’s “goals” and “values.” “It definitely is the opposite of the values of the foundation and the goals of the foundation,” he told the outlet. “And our work is very reputation-sensitive. I mean, people can choose to work with us or not work with us.”

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The Western Hemisphere. Vertical alignment.

• Trump Prompts Military Coalition With Latin American Leaders To Fight Cartels (ET)

U.S. President Donald Trump on March 7 welcomed his Latin American allies to Florida for a summit focused on addressing regional issues and announced a new military coalition to combat drug cartels in the Western Hemisphere. “On this historic day, we come together to announce a brand new military coalition to eradicate the criminal cartels plaguing our region,” Trump said as he began his remarks at the summit. He said that the new partnership, called the Americas Counter Cartel Coalition, will leverage military resources, including the possible use of missiles, to combat the cartels. The heads of state of Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Honduras, Panama, Paraguay, and Trinidad and Tobago attended today’s summit, the White House said.


The event, called the Shield of the Americas Summit, is taking place at Trump National Doral Club in Miami and is the first such regional meeting to bring together, as the State Department described, “like-minded allies” in the Western Hemisphere. “We’re going to be doing some incredible things together,” Trump told the leaders. All countries in attendance are governed by right-wing or center-right parties, while left-leaning governments such as Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico did not participate in the summit. On March 5, Trump announced that outgoing Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem will lead the effort as special envoy for the Shield of the Americas. During his remarks, Trump criticized previous U.S. administrations for abandoning the Western Hemisphere. “They went so far away. They went to these faraway places where they weren’t even wanted,” Trump said.

The Donroe Doctrine
In its national security strategy released in November 2025, the Trump administration made the Western Hemisphere its top priority, stating that it was a “great American strategic mistake of recent decades” to allow “non-Hemispheric competitors” to take hold in the region. The Trump administration compared its new policy to the Monroe Doctrine of 1823, a U.S. policy that told European powers to stay out of the Americas. After that, some media outlets began calling it the “Donroe Doctrine,” and the Trump administration adopted the term. “It is a doctrine we will not allow hostile foreign influence to gain a foothold in this hemisphere that includes the Panama Canal,” Trump said without citing China during his speech.

Over the last two decades, China has become a dominant force in Latin America and the Caribbean, with trade surpassing $500 billion in 2024. In countries such as Brazil and Peru, China has replaced the United States as a key trading partner. In recent years, more than 20 Latin American and Caribbean countries have joined Beijing’s Belt and Road initiative. As a result, China has secured hundreds of infrastructure projects, gaining control of assets, including ports, throughout the region. In January, U.S. forces captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in Caracas, effectively ending Venezuela’s relationship with China. Last week, Trump suggested that Cuba might be next.

“Cuba’s at the end of the line,” Trump said at the event, adding that the regime in Havana is negotiating with him and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. “But, our focus right now is on Iran,” Trump said. The summit comes amid a tense geopolitical backdrop, with the conflict in Iran entering its second week. On Feb. 28, Iran’s Islamic leader, Ali Khamenei, and dozens of top leadership figures were killed in the U.S.–Israeli joint military operation. Since then, Tehran has launched a series of retaliatory attacks across the region. The Hezbollah terrorist group, an Iran proxy, has networks in Latin America and, for years, used the Western Hemisphere for money laundering, fundraising, and terrorism.

US Offers Military Training
During the event, Trump signed a proclamation formally launching the new military coalition. “Every leader here today is united in the conviction that we cannot and will not tolerate the lawlessness in our hemisphere any longer,” Trump said. “You have some great police, but they threaten your police, they scare your police,” Trump added, referring to drug cartels. “You’re going to use your military. In many cases, our forces have already been working closely with yours, and the United States looks forward to deepening and expanding that cooperation in the months ahead.”

U.S. Southern Command announced recently that Ecuadorian and U.S. military forces conducted joint operations against “designated terrorist organizations” in Ecuador as part of the U.S. effort to fight narco-terrorism. The proclamation states that the United States will train and mobilize the militaries of partner nations to help dismantle cartels. mAccording to the proclamation, the United States and its allies should prevent external threats, including malign foreign influences from outside the Western Hemisphere. Seventeen countries are signatories to this partnership.

The leaders attending the Miami summit are Javier Milei, president of Argentina; Rodrigo Paz Pereira, president of Bolivia; Jose Antonio Kast, president-elect of Chile; Rodrigo Chaves Robles, president of Costa Rica; Luis Rodolfo Abinader Corona, president of the Dominican Republic; Daniel Roy Gilchrist Noboa Azín, president of Ecuador; Nayib Bukele, president of El Salvador; Mohamed Irfaan Ali, president of Guyana; Nasry “Tito” Asfura, president of Honduras; José Raúl Mulino Quintero, president of Panama; Santiago Peña, president of Paraguay; and Kamla Persad-Bissessar, prime minister of Trinidad and Tobago.

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China will invest heavily in solar. Europe won’t even do that.

• Part II – Europe and China Have an Energy Problem (CTH)

When President Donald Trump and President Vladimir Putin met in Alaska on August 15, 2025, the focus of the geopolitical world was on discussions surrounding Ukraine. Unfortunately, it didn’t take long, merely a few hours, for both the U.S. and Russia to say that no progress was made. However, also noted at the time was both the USA and Russia saying sideline discussions took place surrounding the possibility for a strategic relationship surrounding energy development. What follows below is a review of the current energy dynamic, specifically surrounding LNG, against the backdrop of the Iran war with a hindsight review of that previous discussion between Putin and Trump.


What most people are missing in their current analysis was something that took place immediately following that Alaska summit six months ago. Something that did not make any sense until now. {GO DEEP PART I HERE} Three days after that summit meeting, on August 18, 2025, Russia announced they were restarting Russia’s Arctic-2 LNG production facility. Russia would be more than doubling their capacity to generate and store liquified natural gas (LNG). It absolutely did not make sense that Russia would start producing even more LNG considering the previously imposed western sanctions against them, and the fact that Russia was already overproducing LNG. As noted by analysts at the time:

AUGUST 18, 2025 – Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 export facility, which is sanctioned by the United States, is coming back to life after a year of no activity and is looking for buyers in Asia. […] The U.S. and EU sanctions on Russia’s Arctic LNG 2, which was billed as Russia’s flagship LNG project, have effectively frozen the start-up of the export facility in the Gydan Peninsula. […] Last year, Russia started shipping LNG from its flagship Arctic LNG 2 project—but not to customers. The shipments were made from the Arctic project to floating storage units either in Russia or in European waters, as potential customers were unwilling to buy the sanctioned LNG. {SOURCE}

In August of 2025, Russia was essentially producing more LNG than they could sell into the available market. Russia was storing the overproduction from Arctic-1 on floating storage units and slowly selling to countries that did not align with the sanctions, specifically China and some Asian buyers. Then suddenly, after the Trump summit, Russia decides to bring Arctic-2 online and produce even more LNG. You can see how this did not make sense.

If they could not even sell all the Arctic-1 LNG output, then why would Russia bring Arctic-2 LNG production online? That was six months ago. Suddenly, with the war in Iran being triggered, and with Qatar almost immediately announcing they were shutting down all LNG production, there are dozens of new markets for liquified natural gas. And that current LNG is now worth 50% more than it was when Russia inextricably decided to start producing and storing it.Apply some hindsight to this timeline. Did Russia know or discover something in August of 2025 that the world would not discover until six months later?

Russia’s behavior in increasing LNG production, then storing that LNG in strategic venues, during a time when there was no reasonable incentive to trigger an LNG output increase, would seem to answer that question in the affirmative. One thing is certain, all of that previously produced LNG is now worth double what it was when Russia created it, and now the global market is scrambling to get it. Here is where it gets really interesting…. In October 2025, do you remember me asking why President Trump decided to fly East, to go West to the ASEAN summit in Asia? It just didn’t make sense. Previously in 2017 when President Trump went to the ASEAN summit, he flew West; Airforce One refueled in Guam. This time in 2025, a few weeks after the meeting with President Putin in Alaska, President Trump flew East, to go West. Where did he refuel?

That’s correct. President Trump refueled in Qatar, and during the ‘unexpected’ stop he met, yet again, with Qatari leadership. • In May 2025 President Trump traveled to Qatar and had numerous and lengthy conversations, signing multiple strategic defense and trade deals. • In August 2025, President Trump meets with Vladimir Putin, who then begins ramping up production of LNG. • In October 2025, President Trump travels back to Qatar for a curious and unexpected visit. Less than 36 hours after President Trump began “Operation Epic Fury” Qatar announces they are halting the production of LNG, and as a consequence the price of LNG jumped and a massive supply shift in global trade was created.

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It’s Trump derangement.

• Dem Leaders Can’t Explain Past Support For Presidential War Powers (Turley)

In Rage and the Republic, I quote former Rep. Jaamal Bowman (D., N.Y.) as capturing the essence of an age of rage when a colleague asked him to stop yelling outside of the House floor. Bowman responded, “I was screaming before you interrupted me.” bBowman’s statement came to mind this week when Democratic members were miffed when they were interrupted in tirades over war powers with questions about their prior support for unilateral attacks by Democratic presidents. Leaders like Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D., Cal.) and Sen. Adam Schiff (D., Cal.) struggled to explain their prior support for President Barack Obama in doing precisely that in Libya with embarrassing results.


The greatest face plant may have been Schiff’s appearance on “Real Time” with host Bill Maher. After Schiff denounced any attack without prior congressional approval, Maher read “This statement from the administration: ‘The president had the constitutional authority to direct the use of military force because he could reasonably determine that such use of force was in the national interest.’” He then asked Schiff, “That’s too vague for you?” Schiff responded, “Totally vague…” Maher than dropped the H bomb: “Okay. Because that’s from Obama about Libya.” The moment laid bare the towering hypocrisy of democrats who continued to support Obama after he attacked Libya without any suggested imminent threat to the United States and an open strategy of regime change.

I represented members of Congress opposing that war over the absence of a declaration of war; most of the senior Democrats today refused to join that litigation. Pelosi is especially hypocritical on the issue. She expressly declared that Obama did not need congressional authorization to launch unilateral attacks on Libya seeking regime change. She stated unequivocally that”I’m satisfied that the president has the authority to go ahead. I say that as one very protective of Congressional prerogative and consultation all along the way.” Reporters then followed up and pressed her if she really believed that a president could not only launch an unprovoked war but could also continue combat operations without congressional approval. Pelosi answered “yes,”

This week, she made a ham-fisted effort to spin the contradiction. She told the media that the Iran and Libyan wars are “two completely different things. They’re not at all alike.” Pelosi added, “What Obama did was limited military force. This is beyond that. It was limited military force.” In signature fashion, she then struck out at pesky reporters asking about her past position: “Do your homework. Read the law. We have lost people in war already… I just think if you read the law, you will see the difference.” While not challenged on the spin, it is historically and legally nonsensical.

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They were right. Khameini’s gone, but the rest are still there.

• US Intel Assessed Massive US Attack ‘Unlikely’ To Oust Iranian Regime: WaPo (ZH)

Even a massive military assault on Iran is unlikely to topple the Islamic Republic of Iran and its state system, according to a classified assessment produced by the US intelligence community shortly before the US and Israel launched their current ‘shock and awe-style’ military campaign on Tehran. The Washington Post first reported it, perhaps based on some kind of leak or briefing by an anonymous intelligence official, and calls it— “…a sobering assessment as the Trump administration raises the specter of an extended military campaign that officials say has “only just begun.”


The report, compiled by the National Intelligence Council (NIC) roughly a week before the war began, concluded that Iran’s political system is structured to survive even major leadership losses, The Washington Post reports. However, this should really come as no surprise to anyone awake and observant throughout the past two plus decades of America’s ‘nation building’ efforts in the Middle East, from Afghanistan to Iraq to Libya. Already, Israel and the US have touted that ‘all’ of Iran’s top leadership has been decimated, and yet clearly the governing system and its military – led specially by the elite IRGC – is not only in control but is still fighting back.

According to the assessment, Tehran has long prepared for such contingencies – and likely there’s an emergency plan now in place in the wake of Ayatollah’s Khamenei’s death. Intelligence officials say Iran long ago established clear succession protocols designed to maintain continuity of power even if senior leaders are killed. In other words, the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would likely trigger an internal transition process rather than cause the system to collapse – again, something which should be the obvious scenario.

The intelligence report also poured cold water on the idea that Iran’s opposition could quickly fill any power vacuum. US intelligence analysts assessed that the country’s fragmented opposition movements remain too divided to seize control, regardless of whether Washington pursued limited strikes against leadership targets or a broader assault on state institutions. Equally unlikely, according to current and former US officials familiar with the analysis, is the prospect of a spontaneous nationwide uprising. We could speculate that this possibility may have had a chance of some degree of success within the opening one or two days of the mass US-Israel bombing campaign, but it clearly didn’t materialize.

On this prospect WaPo quotes Brookings: “There’s no other force within Iran that can confront the remaining power that the regime has,” Suzanne Maloney, an Iran scholar and vice president of the Brookings Institution, told The Post. “Even if they’re not able to project that power very effectively against their neighbors, they can certainly dominate inside the country.” The National Intelligence Council synthesizes the analytical work of all 18 US intelligence agencies, and produces classified estimates meant to guide policymakers on major geopolitical risks.

Much of the American public, raised on Hollywood movies, tends to have an overblown and inaccurate understanding of US intelligence agencies like the CIA. While the CIA certainly has a very powerful and secretive covert, operations side (and an even tinier Ground Branch) – the bulk of its personnel and overseers/top officials are analysts. So there is an overt side and a covert side, with the analyst side tasked with providing the IC and White House with a ‘realistic’ picture of the world, ideally devoid of policy or ideology. Their job is also often to ‘game out’ all worst possible scenarios, given a certain course of action.

Meanwhile, the White House has not said whether Trump was briefed on the assessment before approving the operation. But likely such an assessment would have made it into the CIA’s daily briefing for the president, also given reports from last week that the Pentagon also tried to inject some realism in terms of the ‘unknowns’ once Tehran is attacked.

Read more …

Guess what? The US is right there.

• Venezuela’s Gas Potential Could Overshadow Its Famous Oil Reserves (OP)

While the world eyes Venezuela’s untapped oil, some believe that there may be greater mid-term potential in exploiting its natural gas reserves. Most of Venezuela’s gas is trapped deep beneath the seafloor. While these reserves were first discovered several decades ago, ago, off the country’s eastern coast, along the border with Trinidad and Tobago, the Venezuelan government left them largely untouched as it focused its attention on oil production. Several oil majors, such as Shell, have previously approached Venezuela for a stake in its gas business, even when interest in the country’s oil industry was waning due to geopolitical instability and U.S. sanctions.


For years, U.S. sanctions on Venezuela’s government and its state-owned oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela, have restricted the development of its gas industry. In addition, developing its natural gas industry would require cooperation with neighbouring Trinidad and Tobago. Trinidad and Tobago already has the necessary infrastructure to transport fuel onshore and export it, which Venezuela does not. If the two countries established an energy partnership, Trinidad’s pre-existing infrastructure could help Venezuela to develop its gas industry more rapidly. However, the two powers, which are separated by language (Spanish and English), have had a strained relationship in recent years. Trinidad and Tobago has generally sided with the United States when it comes to Maduro’s presidency and the decision to impose sanctions on Venezuelan energy.

Venezuela’s biggest natural gas prospect is the giant Dragon oil field, as it is the closest to being developed. The Venezuelan government previously conducted exploration activities in the field but was unable to retrieve the gas buried there due to a lack of funding to continue exploration. These efforts were further undermined by the sinking of an exploration rig in 2010. In 2023, the Venezuelan government made a deal with Shell, allowing the foreign firm to explore the Dragon field. The plan was to construct a short pipeline between Dragon and Shell’s existing infrastructure on the island of Trinidad, rather than to start from scratch in Venezuela.

If Shell develops Dragon, the field is expected to generate around $500 million a year in revenue, based on current natural gas prices, of which at least 45 percent is expected to go to Venezuela in the form of taxes and royalties. “These are opportunities that could potentially be activated within months, with potentially a few billion dollars of investments and production in the next couple of years,” Shell’s CEO, Wael Sawan, told CNBC. U.S. Energy Secretary, Chris Wright, said that developing a regional natural gas collaboration could be “a real potential win-win for Trinidad and Tobago, a win for the global L.N.G. market, a win for Venezuela.” Meanwhile, BP is pursuing another Venezuelan gas project, a field known as Cocuina, which greater leniency on U.S. sanctions may make possible.

In late February, the U.S. Treasury Department appeared to give oil and gas firms greater leeway to negotiate with Venezuela and operate in the South American country. “They are splicing together an environment that allows the existing players to operate,” said Rachel Ziemba, an adjunct senior fellow at the Centre for a New American Security. While President Trump is eyeing long-term oil industry development in Venezuela, some international oil majors may be more interested in the South American country’s natural gas potential. Developing the resource will likely require collaboration with neighbouring Trinidad and Tobago, and could lead to the development of a new regional Latin America-Caribbean energy hub.

Read more …

“That’s OK, Prime Minister Starmer, we don’t need them any longer — But we will remember.”

• Trump Mocks UK for Belated Proposal of Military Aid Against Iran (Catherine Salgado)

U.S. President Donald Trump is making fun of the waffling and woke UK government for taking too long to decide if it wants to back America and Israel in Operation Epic Fury against the Iranian regime. The president posted on Truth Social Saturday, “The United Kingdom, our once Great Ally, maybe the Greatest of them all, is finally giving serious thought to sending two aircraft carriers to the Middle East. That’s OK, Prime Minister Starmer, we don’t need them any longer — But we will remember. We don’t need people that join Wars after we’ve already won!”


Trump is already celebrating impending victory after destroying so much of the Iranian navy and leadership, but some have cautioned that without totally different leadership in charge, the Iranian threat to the U.S. and Israel — not to mention the Persian people — will continue. It is therefore unclear if the end of Operation Epic Fury is imminent, or if it will not come for a few more weeks. The UK Independent reported March 7: The UK is preparing an aircraft carrier for possible deployment to the Middle East, reducing the time it would take to be readied. This does not mean that Portsmouth-based HMS Prince of Wales, which is used to carry fighter jets and helicopters, will be sent into the Gulf as conflict escalates in the region, but the preparedness of the Royal Navy’s flagship is being increased, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) said.

A spokesperson for the ministry cagily stated, “We have been bolstering our UK military presence in the Middle East since January, and we have already deployed capabilities to protect British people and our allies in the region, including Typhoons, F-35 jets, air defence systems and an extra 400 personnel into Cyprus.” Cyprus is in high alert because there are some 10,000 pro-regime Iranians in the north of the island, which Muslims, primarily Turks, illegally occupy. Besides the Iranians, the Turkish-occupied area also has Hamas jihadis, and of course Hamas is an Iranian regime proxy. The dictator of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Er dogan expressed sorrow over the elimination of Iran’s murderous Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.

The West has spent too long welcoming in their enemies, and now has to face the dangerous reality that created. Great Britain is especially guilty of providing endless freebies and privileges to non-assimilating Muslims, while punishing its own citizens who dare to criticize the program. No wonder Prime Minister Keir Starmer has acted foolishly in the face of the Iran operation, criticizing the U.S. The UK MoD spokesperson said further, “Since the strikes began, we’ve had British jets in the sky shooting down drones and have sent additional assets to the region to further reinforce our air defences, including more Typhoons and Wildcat helicopters with drone-busting missiles.”

Aside from that, the MoD spokesperson merely repeated vaguely, “HMS Prince of Wales has always been on very high readiness, and we are increasing the preparedness of the carrier, reducing the time it would take to set sail for any deployment.” Which means practically nothing.

Read more …

No, you will not get your country back.

• UK Government Brands Union Flag A ‘Tool Of Hate’ (MN)

A leaked draft of the UK Government’s new ‘social cohesion’ strategy has sparked outrage by labeling the flying of English, Scottish, and Union Jack flags as potential “tools of hate.” The document claims these national symbols were sometimes used last summer to “exclude or intimidate,” adding that the “extreme right has tried to turn symbols of pride into tools of hate.” The 47-page draft, leaked to the Spectator magazine, also highlights how antisemitism has become “normalised in many corners of society” from schools and universities to workplaces and the NHS. Under the proposals, titled Protecting What Matters, some £800 million over 10 years would be allocated to 40 areas where social cohesion is “under pressure.”


The strategy is set for a cross-Government rollout next week, but critics are already slamming it as divisive. Reform UK’s deputy leader Richard Tice blasted the draft, telling the Sun: “Absurdly, this says our national flag is a tool of hate used to intimidate. The whole paper is a divisive nonsense that should be consigned to the bin.” The leak ties directly into ongoing controversies over national flags, as detailed in our previous coverage where English councils admitted spending tens of thousands to remove “unauthorised” English and Union Jack flags from lampposts. As we highlighted, leftist activist Pablo O’Hana was caught on video removing flags from a bridge in Manchester, telling a man who placed them: “that’s not what our country is.”

Freedom of Information requests revealed councils spent at least £70,000 on flag removals, with O’Hana suggesting the true cost is far higher as many incorporate it into existing budgets. Medway Council alone spent nearly £11,600 removing over 700 flags, with Labour councillor Alex Paterson calling it “money well spent” to counter “far-right agitators.”Paterson added that clearing the streets of British and English flags was essential to “make the community feel safe again,” claiming: “I think at this stage the world is divided into people who know exactly why these flags were put up and those who are still pretending they don’t know why they were put up.” The flag campaign, known as ‘Operation Raise The Colours,’ emerged amid unrest over sexual offences allegedly committed by illegal immigrants housed in taxpayer-funded hotels.

This grassroots effort, coordinated via a Facebook page with offers of transport and equipment like ladders, saw patriotic activists vowing to keep flags flying despite council interventions. The Prime Minister previously supported the right to fly St George’s flags, but the leaked documents appear to associate them with far-right protests and immigration tensions. The strategy also proposes a “special representative” to “champion efforts across the UK to tackle hostility and hatred directed at Muslims and those perceived to be Muslim.” A new definition of Islamophobia is also expected, with guidance on anti-Muslim hatred.

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/2030199334956925376


Critics warn this could become a backdoor “blasphemy law” stifling free speech, though the Government insists it protects against unacceptable treatment. A Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government spokesperson declined to address the leak: “We do not comment on leaks.” This leaked strategy exposes a government more focused on policing national pride than securing borders or protecting native culture. As flags continue to rise, the pushback against globalist erosion of British identity only intensifies—proving that true cohesion comes from shared heritage, not forced suppression.

Read more …

“Assets held in Western financial institutions were no longer safe if the political winds shifted against you. That was new. That was genuinely new. And every central bank and sovereign wealth fund on earth noticed..”

• The Bretton Whoops (No. 1)

I’m pulling myself away from the Iran war coverage for a moment – don’t worry, the wrap-up is coming later today. But something needed saying first. The bombs make headlines. The economic unraveling happening quietly underneath them don’t. So before we get back to the daily carnage, let’s talk about money. It used to be funny, in a rich man’s world. The world didn’t wake up one morning and decide to distrust the dollar. It was a process. Gradually, then suddenly, as these things tend to go. Ernest Hemingway quote: How did you go bankrupt?” Two ways. Gradually …


It started with Venezuela. In 2019, Caracas asked the Bank of England to return its own gold – 31 tonnes, sitting in a vault in London, belonging to the Venezuelan central bank. The Bank of England said no. The justification was creative: London had decided to recognise a man who had never won an election as Venezuela’s “legitimate” president, so it couldn’t very well hand $2 billion in gold to the actual government. Problem solved. Maduro was a dictator, everyone agreed he was terrible, and so the consensus was essentially: who cares. Everyone filed it under “rogue state gets what it deserves” and moved on.

Then Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, and $300 billion in Russian sovereign reserves got frozen overnight. Again, the justification was airtight, the villain was obvious, and the Western financial world applauded itself. What nobody wanted to discuss was the precedent. Assets held in Western financial institutions were no longer safe if the political winds shifted against you. That was new. That was genuinely new. And every central bank and sovereign wealth fund on earth noticed, even if they did say nothing publicly.

Then Trump came back. Tariffs on allies. Threats to annex Greenland. The implicit message that the post-war security architecture was now a negotiable service rather than a commitment. The dollar’s reserve currency status had always rested on two pillars: the dominance of the US economy, and the reliability of the US government as a custodian of the system. One of those pillars was now being kicked.

By the time the Iran war started, the trust account was already badly overdrawn. The petrodollar was a simple deal. The Gulf states price their oil in dollars, recycle the surplus into US Treasuries, and in exchange get American military protection. Clean, elegant, and – for fifty years – it actually worked. The US got permanent demand for its currency and its debt. The Gulf got security guarantees backed by the most powerful military on earth. Five decades of procurement scandals and DEI hires later, someone called the bluff.

US bases across the Gulf – Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE – were always sold as the physical expression of the guarantee. The muscle that backed the paper. They were protection. Except now those bases are targets. The countries hosting them are getting hit precisely because they host them. What once was “US military presence as shield” has collapsed and became “US military presence as a bullseye”. Medvedev put it with the particular relish of someone who has been waiting years to say it:


You can dismiss Medvedev on most things. On this one, his timing is sublime. I already cover the daily physical damage to Gulf infrastructure in my Iran series, so I won’t repeat it here. The point here aren’t the bombs. The point is what the bombs have made obvious: the protection America sold the GCC was a liability dressed up as an asset.

And increasingly it seems that the Gulf states are discussing pulling their investment commitments from the US. Not done yet. Discussing. They are not floating the possibility quietly in private rooms – they are saying it out loud, which means the market already knows which direction they’re heading. Capital won’t wait for a formal declaration. It will already leave in advance, quietly, and then when the announcement comes, everyone will pretend to be surprised…

Read more …

Make the Greeks nervous.

• Turkey Mulls F-16 Deployment To Turkish-Occupied Cyprus (ZH)

As the Iran war unfolds and has shown signs of becoming a regional conflict, one interesting question is what Turkey’s role will be – given it is both a NATO member possessing a large military and an avowed regional enemy and rival to Israel for influence. A Turkish defense ministry source has been cited in national media to say the country is mulling deployment of F-16 fighter jets to the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). Earlier this week a British military base hosted in EU member Cyprus (on the southern side of the island) came under attack by Iranian-made drones. This has resulted in some European military assets being moved to Cyprus, including additional British forces. But now it appears Turkey wants to make a show of doing the name for Turkish-claimed Cypriot territory.


Turkey’s Daily Sabah points out, however, that “TRNC has been incensed by Greek Cypriot’s growing military cooperation with its Western partners after the United Kingdom has allowed the U.S. to use its military base in the south of the divided island. Citing the military source, the same Turkish outlet said, “The TRNC leadership has held a series of security meetings in response to the crisis, he added, focusing on crisis management, coordination with Türkiye and the preparedness of civil defense mechanisms.” As for Turkey’s long occupation of northern Cyprus, no one else in the world recognizes its legitimacy except for Ankara. Cyprus receives backing from its EU partners, but this doesn’t go much beyond verbal censure of Turkey.

The Turkish armed forces has for years had at least 30,000 soldiers stationed on Cyprus and growing, the northern part of which it has illegally occupied since 1974. At the moment, President Erdogan has reportedly reached out to the UK’s Starmer, urging for Britain to do more diplomacy to immediately bring the Iran-US-Israel war to halt.

Read more …

Russia knows the region much better than the Americans. It’s their region.

• Kremlin: “We Are Not Neutral. We Support Iran.” (ZH)

Russia says it stands with its ally Iran, at a moment Washington officials are outraged at reports that Moscow is supporting Tehran with targeting intelligence related to US bases and Pentagon assets in the region amid Operation Epic Fury. That allegation was first reported by The Washington Post days ago. President Vladimir Putin held a phone call with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, the Kremlin had announced late Friday, amid the escalating US-Israeli attacks on Iran. In the call Putin expressed “deep condolences” over the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, members of his family, other senior political and military officials, as well as the civilian victims. Putin, it must be remembered, has been hosted in Tehran on several occasions and has been photographed in friendly conversations with the slain Khamenei over the years.


The Kremlin indicated further Putin reaffirmed Russia’s position that there must be an immediate halt to the conflict, and that diplomacy must prevail over use of military force. He said he’s in contact with leaders of countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) as the crisis unfolds, countries which have come under Iranian missiles and drones over the past week of war. Pezeshkian for his part thanked Russia for what he described as solidarity with the Iranian people and briefed Putin on developments in the current phase of the conflict, the Kremlin said. Meanwhile, Russian diplomats are sending a clear signal on which side of the global divide they stand concerning the rapid events of the Iran war:


“We are not neutral. We support Iran.” This was the response with Russia’s Ambassador to the United Kingdom was asked if Moscow is neutral regarding the Iran war… Still, Russia and China are not expected to get deeply or directly involved, and may be more content to wait and see if Washington gets sucked into a new Vietnam or Iraq-style quagmire. The question of Iranian oil exports to China still looms large, however, and there have been reports that Beijing could be mulling some kind of military escort operation for its tankers in the Strait of Hormuz – but this reporting appears speculation at this moment, and could be premature.

Read more …

 

 

 

 

https://twitter.com/NightSkyNow/status/2030374805208539516?s=20 https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/2030523910907707857?s=20

 

 

 

 

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Home › Forums › Debt Rattle March 9 2026

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  • March 9, 2026 at 9:31 pm #234042
    John Day
    Participant

    Demand Destruction And Assigning Losses https://drjohnsblog.substack.com/p/demand-destruction-and-assigning

    We naturally think of a war between the US & Israel against Iran, and it is always presented in this light, but as it drags on the losses to the nations of the world pile up, and most of the losses will not accrue to these 3 nations. Of course we want to keep up with war news, but this is changing the structure of global real economy, and the finances will be forced to follow suit.
    As this war progresses collateral damage mounts to countries dependent upon shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, gulf monarchies first, as that is how they get food and drinking water. When I was in high school in the 1970s, it was already well understood that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia continued to exist without revolution because the monarchy paid the price in cash to keep Arabian citizens well fed and happy. that is still the case, and Saudi Arabia was going to borrow 20% of its government budget this year before war broke out. Now it needs to cash out investemts in US treasury bills and US stocks, as do all the other Gulf monarchies. This threatens the petro-dollar arrangement at its base, but these monarchies really have to worry about hungry, thirsty, angry people right away.
    The US bombed an Iranian desalination plant on an island. The people on that island are badly impacted, but not the mainland, whereas Israel is highly dependent on 5 desalination plants, one of which Iran has now hit in retaliation. The Gulf monarchies and citizens can’t survive without desalination plants.
    The people who lived in Dubai 2 weeks ago were over 50% foreigners, wealthy or with very good jobs. A lot of them left. Others are waiting to leave. All of these Gulf kingdoms depend on high flows of money, goods and talent toexist, and those flows depend upon oil and gas flowing throug the Strait of Hormuz. They stop existing quickly without that stable flow. The oil and gas will still be there, but not the political, social and economic construct.
    If the people go away, and oil profits are not needed to support them, then oil profits will go elsewhere, maybe to some big military power or something.
    A lot of countries are existentially dependent upon oil and gas imports for theeir industrial base, such as Germany, the UK and other European countries. They have spurned Russian oil and gas, which was bad enough and ruining their industries before this. Now it can finish them off. Hungary and Slovakia have maintained relations with Russia, and are having their supplies choked by Ukraine, though Ukraine needs their electricity and diesel fuel.
    China has been stockpiling oil and other necessities for decades, and maintains broad and good trade relationships, notably with Russia. China is somewhat threatened in the long term, but not the next 6 months. The US has now started attacking tankers carrying Iranian oil to China, to sever that supply.
    Many smaller “global south” countries and Asian countries are highly dependent upon oil and gas imports, but have not burned their bridges with Russia. India is a special case, courted by the US, after a fashion, and now with special permission to buy cheap Russian oil again temporarily. India likes being non-aligned.
    Global finance will soon be forced to restructure as debts cannot be serviced without oil revenues, and other industries will not be making things without oil and gas. Across the world, massive public and private debts are barely being serviced, often by taking out more loans. This will be forced to crash if this war persists in the same form through Seotemeber. Would you want to invest in German governemt bonds if Germany could not get oil and gas for industry?
    The broad and intelligent speculation is that money will go from being backed by interest payments, to being backed by commodities like oil, gold, gas, silver, grains and soybeans. Investments will be written-off in a mass global bankruptcy, and a $US will be worth how much bread and gas it can buy you. Will it be “the reserve currency”? Will there be a reserve-currency? That is above my pay grade.
    Through attacking Iran, and refusing to stop, Trump effectively attacks European real economy, European finance, and the UK/London in the same sense, while pressuring China, and harming some Chinese investments. All of the smaller contries which need to import for their industries will remain flexible and friendloy to survive.
    The ongoing existence of the Zionist State of Israel is more acutely inquestion, as it has to advance in war to maintain internal political cohesion, but stands to lose desalination and electrical generation facilities, as well as military assets, such as air defense radars, which have mostly been destroyed alrady. The missiles are hitting Tel Aviv without sirens, or maybe 2 minutes of warning now. Lots of Israelis can go to other countries, since they have wealth and dual citizenship. At what point in a long process of functional degradation might Israeli leaders decide to unleash nuclear strikes? Would they stop with Iran?
    President Trump has said that he will only accept “unconditional surrender” from Iran. Iran has insisted that it will end the war on its terms. Iranian cities are burning now. The empire is past the plan to change the regime through decapitation, and has moved to the phase of causing horrible death and suffering, Israeli style, with AI-targeting of girl’s schools, Israeli style.
    What is effectively happening as a direct cause of this war, as the world goes into a hard global economic decline, is that the collapse is being imposed upon some countries that totally depend upon imported oil and gas. Their debts will default, and they will not be able to rebuild in the global great depression, somewhat like Germany after the First World War, but this time it will be a lot more countries, including England and France.

    President Trump is getting visions and loud prayers and hands of pastors laid upon him to transmit God’s power into him to obtain victory…
    Which “god”, right? Not the God of Love.

    Gold & Geopolitics, March, 8: His Will Be Don​e – when your spiritual adviser needs a spiritual adviser
    ​ “Strike and strike and strike and strike and strike and strike and strike and strike and strike and strike until you have victory! For every enemy that is aligned against you – we would strike the ground, for you will give us victory, God!”
    ​ “The Lord says it is done. The Lord says it is done. The Lord says it is done, for I hear victory victory victory victory in the quarters of heaven!”
    “Victory victory victory victory victory victory victory, for angels are being released right now! Angels are being dispatched right now!”
    ​ “Hamandah, Akka, Ataraka, Tedda, Bakka, Sanda, Ata, Ambo, Osa, Kata, Ritte, Eke, Banda, Ata, Ritte, Didi, Asha, Taa…”
    “For angels have been dispatched from Africa right now! Africa right now! Africa right now! They’re coming here! They’re coming here! In the name of Jesus, from South America! They’re coming here! They’re coming here! They’re coming here!”
    ​ “Angelic reinforcement! Angelic reinforcement! Angelic reinforcement!”
    ​ “I hear the sound of victory. I hear the sound of victory. I hear the sound of victory. I hear the sound of victory. I hear the sound of victory. I hear the sound of victory. I hear the sound of victory. I hear the sound of victory. I hear the sound of victory.”…​
    ..That’s Paula White. Totally normal behaviour. She’s Trump’s “senior adviser to the White House Office of Faith-Based and Community Initiatives”. Chanting over a war that has killed ~1,300 Iranians including 200 children.​..
    ..She wasn’t alone. A room full of pastors gathered around the President, laying hands on him, praying for heavenly blessing as he prosecuted an attack on a country with which he was negotiating the day before. On camera.
    ​ I wrote on day four about military commanders telling their troops this is Armageddon. That Trump was anointed by Jesus to light the signal fire. These people aren’t speaking in metaphor. They mean it.​ https://no01.substack.com/p/march-8-his-will-be-done

    ​ Dozens of US lawmakers demand probe into Pentagon officials saying Iran war ‘God’s divine plan’
    Hundreds of complaints from US service members report that commanders told them the war on Iran is part of biblical prophecy for Armageddon​ https://thecradle.co/articles/dozens-of-us-lawmakers-demand-probe-into-pentagon-officials-saying-iran-war-gods-divine-plan

    ​ Gold & Geopolitics,​ The Bretton Whoops​ – How fifty years of dollar supremacy are dying with a bang, not a whimper
    ​ The petrodollar was a simple deal. The Gulf states price their oil in dollars, recycle the surplus into US Treasuries, and in exchange get American military protection. Clean, elegant, and – for fifty years – it actually worked. The US got permanent demand for its currency and its debt. The Gulf got security guarantees backed by the most powerful military on earth…
    ​..The US Treasury market is in a bit of a pickle. I believe the technical term is “clusterfuck”.
    About $9.2 trillion in US Treasuries rolled over in fiscal 2025 – roughly a third of all outstanding federal debt – and the 2026 refinancing wave is already building. Annual interest payments on the federal debt have crossed $1 trillion for the first time. The Treasury is buying back its own debt in tranches to keep the market from seizing up. But the 10-year yield keeps moving higher regardless.
    ​ The petrodollar recycling loop was one of the structural forces keeping Treasury auctions clearing. When Gulf sovereigns stop buying – or start selling – somebody else has to absorb that supply. At higher rates. Which makes the interest burden worse. Which makes the deficit worse. Which requires more issuance. The spiral is not complicated.
    ​ And underneath all of this sits a deeper shift that doesn’t get enough attention. The world is migrating from a currency-based monetary order to a collateral-based one. For decades, Treasuries were the global safe asset – the thing you held when you didn’t know what else to hold. That status is eroding. What’s replacing it, are commodities. Physical stuff™. Things you can actually use. Which is – not coincidentally – exactly what the GCC is sitting on, and exactly what the US has just demonstrated it cannot protect.​..
    ​..The entire purpose of US power projection in the Middle East – the bases, the carrier groups, the security guarantees – was always to protect the dollar system. To keep the oil flowing in dollars, the recycling loop turning. Not out of the goodness of its heart. It allowed the US to run deficits indefinitely, export inflation to the rest of the world, and borrow at rates no other debtor could ever dream of.
    ​ Whether Washington chose this war or simply couldn’t say no when Israel saw its chance and leapt – that’s still an open question. What isn’t open is the result. The Gulf states are under attack because they host US bases.​ https://no01.substack.com/p/the-bretton-whoops

    ​ Craig Tindales excellent analysis has earned a lot of attention: Systemic Risk: A 12-Order Cascading Analysis Of A Zero-Flow Strait Of Hormuz Closure
    Executive Summary
    ​ The modern world order, having organized itself around efficiency, cost minimization, and logistical precision, has created a machinery of dependence so extreme that the interruption of one narrow corridor can propagate outward into a general crisis of civilization.​ What appears at first as a maritime blockade is in fact the exposure of the entire global system as a hierarchy of brittle interdependencies.
    ​ Oil and LNG fail as inputs into electricity, fertilizer, shipping, chemicals, mining, manufacturing, and state finance.
    ​ As an example, The global polyester chain begins in petrochemicals. A severe disruption to hydrocarbon and petrochemical feedstocks cascades into PTA, MEG, polyester resin, filament, and fabric production, causing acute shortages, price spikes, and factory stoppages across synthetic-heavy apparel segments. The industry does not vanish overnight, but the low-cost, high-volume apparel model starts to break down.
    ​ From this follows a chain whose logic is cumulative: fuel inflation becomes fertilizer inflation; fertilizer inflation becomes food inflation; food inflation becomes urban instability, sovereign subsidy exhaustion, and ultimately hunger. In this sequence, food shortages are not a secondary humanitarian issue. They are one of the central political outcomes of the crisis​…
    ..Inflation ceases to be cyclical and becomes coercive.
    It enters every household budget and every state ledger at once. The result is the destruction of planning itself: firms cannot quote, governments cannot subsidize, and populations can no longer calculate the future. Under such conditions, credit markets seize up, foreign-exchange reserves drain, sovereign spreads widen, and the boundary between economic crisis and political crisis disappears.
    ​ Modern technical systems amplify rather than damp this disorder.​..
    ..Thus, the closure of a maritime strait reaches, by entirely material means, into the server rack, the hospital network, the payment system, the electrical substation, and the defence-industrial base. The myth that digital civilization floats above heavy industry is, in this scenario, extinguished. Compute is shown to rest on copper, transformers, stable voltage, LNG, and ships.
    ​ For humanity, the systemic risk is therefore total in scope even if uneven in distribution.
    ​ The most immediate suffering falls on import-dependent and fiscally weak societies: blackouts, food insecurity, unemployment, debt default, regime stress, and mass unrest. Yet the advanced economies do not escape.​.. What begins as a supply shock ends as a transformation of the political economy. States abandon the fiction of neutral markets and move toward command allocation, export controls, emergency powers, and militarized trade corridors. Market price gives way to strategic rationing.​..
    ..They are the normal operating features of a civilization that has discovered, too late, that its efficiency was built on concentrated fragility. The closure of Hormuz, under this analysis, is the event through which the modern world recognizes that its supply chains were never only economic structures, but the hidden constitution of social peace itself.​ https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/systemic-risk-12-order-cascading-analysis-zero-flow-strait-hormuz-closure

    March 9, 2026 at 9:33 pm #234043
    John Day
    Participant

    ​ Moon of Alabama on the multifaceted war of attrittion: War On Iran: – No Missile Defense – AI Targeting – Local Retaliation
    In this edition:
    – Radars hit -> missile defense failure -> strategic defeat
    – AI targeting -> dead children
    – Attacks on civil infrastructure -> in-kind retaliation
    During the first phase of the U.S. war on Iran a lot of ammunition was spent (archived) for dubious value:
    The first 36 hours of the U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran consumed more than 3,000 precision-guided munitions and interceptors, exposing a critical vulnerability in the supply chain. Much is unknown about the future of the war and its wider implications, but one thing is clear: the need to replenish munition stockpiles.
    Iran responded to the assault by hitting at the most valuable and vulnerable U.S. targets:
    Beyond the sheer volume of munitions, the loss of high-value assets introduces another layer of complexity. The destruction of two advanced U.S. radars, the AN/FPS-132 in Qatar and the AN/TPS-59 in Bahrain, highlights a problem where the total weight of the “mineral bill” is less of a concern than the extreme fragility of the supply chain and the extensive timelines for replacement. Modern radars contain a lot of rare earth minerals which currently is only produced by China…
    ..But probably more painful that the losses of those radars is the destruction of at least four mobile missile defense radar AN/TPY-2 which each are the core of a THAAD anti-missile air defense battalion. THAAD systems are the only ones which can somewhat reliable defeat Iranian ballistic missile attacks…
    ..There are in total only twelve operational AN/TPY-2 radar systems available globally. The price for each of those radars was estimated to be about a half billion dollar. New ones, if they can be build, will likely cost more than a billion.​ Five to six of those systems were stationed in the Middle East. By now at least four of them are confirmed as having been killed…​ A fifth AN/TPY-2 radar is stationed somewhere in Israel’s Negev desert. It has been attacked but there is no news yet of how much damage was caused. A sixth THAAD battalion is rumored to also be hosted in Israel.​..
    ​..Besides THAAD there are also a number of Patriot air defense batteries active in the Middle East. These are however unreliable against missiles and too expensive to use against drones. A number of these systems, owned by the U.S. and U.S. allies, have been attacked and destroyed but there is no final tally.​ As its missile and air defenses are failing the U.S. is facing strategic defeat​…
    ​..On February 28, the first day of the U.S. attack on Iran, several missiles hit a girl school in Minab, Iran, near the Strait of Hormuz. They were victims of what one might euphemistically call a ‘targeting error’… The targeting of the school was based on old information. Any review of satellite images taken after 2013 would have show that the building had been changed to a school. Walls and guard towers which had protected the former base had been removed. There were new playgrounds and sport fields.
    ​ The question is why the U.S. military is no longer checking its targeting data. The answer maybe AI​… As planning for a potential strike in Iran was underway, Maven, powered by Claude, suggested hundreds of targets, issued precise location coordinates, and prioritized those targets according to importance, said two of the people. The pairing of Maven and Claude has created a tool that is speeding the pace of the campaign, reducing Iran’s ability to counterstrike and turning weeks-long battle planning into real-time operations, said one of the people.
    ​ Current AI system, based on Large Language Models, are inherently unreliable. Their underlying algorithms guarantee that they produce errors. The percentage of errors increases with the size of the models​… No one checks each of the thousands of targets the Pentagon’s models provided. The weeks-long planning previously needed to clear the target list was not done at all. 165 girls are dead for it.
    ​ The U.S. and Israeli strikes have also hit at least 13 hospitals in Iran. Targeted – one hopes(?) – by Maven, Claude or similar systems.​..
    ​..U.S. attacks on Iranian infrastructure thus may become fatal for those Gulf countries which depend on similar installations:
    Seyed Abbas Araghchi @araghchi – 14:13 UTC · Mar 7, 2026
    ​ The U.S. committed a blatant and desperate crime by attacking a freshwater desalination plant on Qeshm Island. Water supply in 30 villages has been impacted.
    ​ Attacking Iran’s infrastructure is a dangerous move with grave consequences. The U.S. set this precedent, not Iran.
    The foreign minister of Iran is not joking. Many of the big cities in the Gulf region depend on desalination plants for their water supplies. Saudi Arabia’s capital Riyadh would have to be evacuated within days if its desalinated water supply, 90% of its total, would fail.
    ​ Israel’s five desalination plants, Ashkelon, Palmachim, Hadera, Sorek and Ashdod, produce a total of 50% of its potable water. These plants are non-movable, not-hardened targets.​ How deep you believe have Maven and Claude ‘thought’ about that?

    War On Iran: – No Missile Defense – AI Targeting – Local Retaliation

    ​ Tel Aviv Fully Blacked-Out and Port of Haifa Burning to the Ground as Iran Pounds Israel​, Hal Turner World March 08, 2026
    The entire city of Tel Aviv is reported to be without electric power as of 9:42 PM eastern US (Daylight) Time on Sunday, March 8, 2026 after Iran struck Power Plants with heavy missiles. Video reported to be from Tel Aviv, shows the black-out.​ https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/component/content/article/tel-aviv-fully-blacked-out-and-port-of-haifa-burning-to-the-ground-as-iran-pounds-israel

    Kremlin: “We Are Not Neutral. We Support Iran.”​ https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/kremlin-we-are-not-neutral-we-support-iran

    ​ Iran Says ‘No Room’ for Talks As US Seeks To ‘Partition Country, Take Oil’ – New Hardline Ayatollah Takes Command
    Younger, reportedly more ‘hardline’ Ayatollah takes command as regime stability continues: Military and political elites have pledged allegiance to Mojtaba Khamenei, who replaces his slain father as supreme leader and is viewed as a figure favored by the IRGC.
    ​ Offramp, or more global shock & pain ahead? Trump after seeing oil prices: ​”Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY!​” https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iran-says-no-room-talks-us-seeks-partition-country-take-oil-new-hardline-ayatollah

    (unconfirmed) BREAKING: Head of Iran’s National Security Council Ali Larijani says “a number” of US soldiers have been captured.​ https://x.com/AJENews/status/2030399054648070405

    March 9, 2026 at 9:34 pm #234044
    John Day
    Participant

    Gold & Geopolitics Daily digest: 2026-03-09
    Mojtaba Khamenei elected Supreme Leader — Son of the killed Ali Khamenei. IRGC forced the election via “heavy pressure” on the Assembly of Experts, which met online because the building was being bombed. Mojtaba lost his father, mother, wife, son, sister, and brother-in-law in the February 28 strikes. Trump called him “unacceptable.” Israel said he’s a target. The IRGC installed a man with nothing left to lose and absolute hatred for his family’s killers…
    ..Bahrain’s sole refinery on fire; desalination plant struck — Iranian drones hit the Bapco refinery (267,000 bbl/day, backbone of US Fifth Fleet logistics) and a water desalination plant, the first confirmed strike on Gulf water infrastructure in this war. Iran said the US set the precedent by striking Iran’s Qeshm Island desalination plant first. Kuwait, 90% dependent on desalination, now sits in the same crosshairs.​..
    ..Hormuz commercially paralyzed — 9 days, zero tanker transits — Seven P&I clubs withdrew war-risk cover under Solvency II rules on March 5. Traffic collapsed from 138 daily crossings to zero. The $20B DFC government reinsurance program covers ~5.7% of JPMorgan’s estimated $352B exposure gap…
    ​..Oil shock: Largest in history by volume​ – The Hormuz closure removes ~20M bbl/day — roughly equal to the top 2-6 historical supply shocks combined.​.. Trump’s response: “A very small price to pay.” Goldman’s Sunday desk note: “That is going to build into a massive problem.” TACO speculation (Trump declaring victory and de-escalating) is alive but increasingly constrained​…
    ​..The reinsurance problem that military force cannot solve
    The Strait is not militarily closed. It is actuarially closed. After 26 months of Houthi attacks, Red Sea premiums never returned to baseline…​ The reopening clock runs on London treaty reinsurance recapitalization timescales — sequential institutional processes that no carrier strike group can compress. White House says 4-6 weeks. Actuarial math says 6-18 months minimum.​..
    ​..Iran’s Mosaic Defence: 31 commands, no central override
    When Khamenei was killed February 28, Iran activated Mosaic Defence — 31 autonomous IRGC provincial commands with independent firing authority and pre-delegated launch protocols. Pezeshkian apologized to Gulf neighbors on March 7, promising strikes would stop. They continued within hours. His own government admitted the armed forces operate independently. The IRGC then forced him to retract the apology. There is no central counterparty to negotiate a ceasefire with.​..
    ​..Interceptor depletion: The hard clock
    THAAD production: 8 per month. Iran’s missile production: 100+ per month. Iran’s drone production: 10,000/month. A Shahed costs $20,000. A Patriot interceptor costs $3-4M. A THAAD missile costs $12.7M. Iran destroyed 4 AN/TPY-2 THAAD radars (replacement timeline: 7 years). US burned through 800+ Patriots in the first 5 days. The Pentagon had only 25% of its needed interceptor stockpile before the war started.​..
    ​..Water infrastructure: The threshold that shouldn’t have been crossed
    The US struck a freshwater desalination plant on Qeshm Island, Iran. Iran’s FM said “the US set this precedent.” Within 24 hours, Bahrain’s plant was hit. Kuwait: 90% desalination-dependent. Bahrain: ~90%. Qatar: ~99%. 400+ plants line the Gulf coast, all exposed, all within range of 31 autonomous IRGC commands.​ https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-03-09

    ​ G​old & Geopolitics, Daily digest: 2026-03-08
    US considering seizing Kharg Island (handles ~90% of Iran’s crude exports) and sending special forces into Isfahan to secure/remove 450kg of 60%-enriched uranium. The Kharg seizure would collapse Iran’s budget overnight — but also spike Brent toward $150+ and alienate every energy-importing nation.​ https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-03-08

    ​ Gold & Geopolitics, Daily digest: 2026-03-07
    Gulf investment review signals petrodollar fracture. Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait and Qatar are discussing withdrawing from US contracts and canceling future investment commitments, per FT. Collectively they hold $3-4 trillion in US-linked financial commitments. The UAE alone pledged $1.4 trillion in US investments over the next decade. The structural condition: these countries host the bases the war is being conducted from, are absorbing the damage, but didn’t start the war. [It sounds like war on them.] https://no1sdailydigest.substack.com/p/daily-digest-2026-03-07

    G-7 Leaders Reject SPR Release Plan, But ‘Stand Ready’ After Initial Jawbone Efforts Fade​ https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/g-7-panic-world-leaders-weigh-emergency-spr-dump-oil-prices-erupt-triple-digit-territory

    “Let Them Keep Playing Games”: Iran Warns Of $200 Crude Oil​ https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/let-them-keep-playing-games-iran-warns-200-crude-oil

    March 9, 2026 at 9:36 pm #234045
    John Day
    Participant

    ​Simplicius, March 5, Iran Blinds US With Unprecedented Campaign of Strikes on Region’s Strategic Radars https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/iran-blinds-us-with-unprecedented

    Simplicius, March 7, Iran War Shifts to Cynical Plan ‘B’ After US Fails to Fracture ‘Regime’
    The statistics being presented about Iran’s missile launches are from hasbara sources, particularly the IDF. For instance, Iran’s missile and drone salvos were said to have dropped to almost nothing in the past two days as in the earlier graph, yet UAE has independently reported that the number of attacks it has defended against Iran just today alone is vastly higher than the stated counts… But the most revealing aspect of the hasbara comes with new reports today that roughly 50-70% of Iran’s ballistic missile launchers have been “destroyed” or “buried”.​..
    ..Now the war has begun to shift into strikes on energy infrastructure with the US-Israeli axis hitting the major Tondgouyan oil refinery in southern Tehran, while Iran reportedly blew up a refinery in Haifa, Israel and oil storage sites in Kuwait…
    ​..It signals a new US axis strategy to destroy Iran economically, now that Trump has realized that Iran will not surrender or collapse politically or militarily.
    ​ This is why now there’s talk of the US seizing Kharg Island which reportedly houses Iran’s largest oil export seaport terminal. But Iran has now “de facto” closed the Strait of Hormuz​…
    ..One of the new vectors in “bringing Iran to its knees” economically and socio-politically appears to be hitting its desalination plants… When asked about this attack, Trump launched into a seemingly racist and deranged rant against Iranians, calling them the most evil people on earth who cut babies’ heads off and “chop women in half”…
    ​..Despite this war seeming like an “all out” existential effort, Iran has in fact continued to show restraint and appears to be holding something back in the tank in order to have escalatory options later down the line. Dimona is one example of this, but so are other major energy facilities throughout the Middle East, particularly Saudi Arabia’s largest fossil fuel complexes.
    ​ The other biggest elephant in the room in regard to this is US’s aircraft carriers. No one knows for certain whether Iran has actually attempted to hit one but is not able to, or whether Iran is saving this as the final escalatory option.​..
    ​..And in an even bigger shock, a White House deputy explained that the US plans to take over Iran’s oil​…
    ..The US may be experiencing far more casualties—whether wounded, dead, or both—than is being reported and the influx is beginning to overburden the system. US casualties are seemingly being swept under the rug in “creative” fashion.​..
    ​..As per usual, when the warmongers can’t achieve their military objectives, it’s the civilians who suffer. Al Jazeera reports that over 1,300 Iranian civilians—30% of them children—have already been killed by the US-Israeli strikes…​ Trump, for his part, says the Minab elementary school massacre was carried out by Iran, despite overwhelming evidence it was a double and perhaps even triple-tap strike by the savage “coalition”.​ https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/iran-war-shifts-to-cynical-plan-b

    A ‘War Of The Oil Refineries’ Opens As Israel Bombs Key Tehran Sites, After Which Haifa Refinery Targeted​ https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-vows-hit-loser-iran-very-hard-pezeshkian-apologizes-gulf-even-irgc-attacks

    ​March 6, Trump Ready To Continue Operations Until Iranians “Can’t Fight Any Longer” https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/tehran-rocked-heaviest-bombardment-yet-iranian-missiles-israel-slow-pezeshkian-says

    ​ Backing off “Unconditional Surrender” already? Ending Iran War Will Be Mutual Decision With Israel, Trump Says
    “I think it’s mutual … a little bit. We’ve been talking. I’ll make a decision at the right time, but everything’s going to be taken into account,” Trump told The Times of Israel in a telephone interview.
    ​ Asked whether he thought it would be necessary for Israel to continue their campaign even after the United States decides to stop its airstrikes, the U.S. president said, “I don’t think it’s going to be necessary.”​ https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ending-iran-war-will-be-mutual-decision-israel-trump-says

    March 9, 2026 at 9:37 pm #234046
    John Day
    Participant

    Oil Plummets As Trump Says Iran War ‘Very Far Ahead Of Schedule’ & So Could Be Over Soon​ https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iran-says-no-room-talks-us-seeks-partition-country-take-oil-new-hardline-ayatollah

    Graham: Our goal in Iran is to make a ‘ton of money’ and get an oil monopoly​ https://en.topwar.ru/279035-grjem-nasha-zadacha-v-irane-zarabotat-kuchu-deneg-i-dobyt-monopoliju-na-neft.html

    ​ Shanaka Perera: If the Wall Street Journal’s sourcing holds, the UAE just became the most consequential actor in this war. Not the US. Not Iran. Not Israel. The UAE.​..
    ​..The UAE’s entire strategic calculus for forty years was based on a deliberate ambiguity. Dubai would not be a sanctions enforcer. It would be a neutral financial hub, a free port for global capital regardless of political origin, and in return it would receive the economic dynamism that comes from being the one place money can always go. That ambiguity was worth hundreds of billions of dollars in financial services revenue, real estate investment, and trade flows. It was also worth significant leverage over Tehran, which needed Dubai and therefore could not completely antagonize it. Iran fired 1,072 drones at the UAE in six days. Iranian missiles struck Dubai’s international air corridor. Iranian ordnance forced the closure of 70 percent of regional flights. Iranian attacks on the Fujairah bypass threatened the one infrastructure node that allows UAE oil to reach markets without transiting Hormuz. Iran did not merely attack a military ally of the United States. It attacked the economic infrastructure of the country that had been its financial lifeline.​..
    ​..What the Gulf states are doing, whether through the reported FT discussions or through the private ceasefire lobbying that Bloomberg and AOL have both confirmed, is exactly what any rational counterparty does when the principal in a relationship exposes the agent to unilateral risk without consent. They are quantifying the cost of the relationship relative to the cost of revising it. They are not threatening to leave the American security umbrella. They are reminding Washington that the umbrella is a transaction, not a tribute.
    ​ The 1973 oil embargo began with a similar calculation. Arab states decided that the cost of the existing relationship exceeded the cost of weaponizing the dependency. The mechanism was energy then. The mechanism now is capital. The Gulf states collectively hold enough US financial exposure to make the threat credible without firing a single weapon.​ https://xcancel.com/shanaka86/status/2029736132691513459#m

    ​Perspective from Helen of Destroy: Grand Theft Reality
    “There is no subjugation so perfect as that which keeps the appearance of freedom, for in that way one captures volition itself.” – Rousseau
    ​ For decades, the ruling class has been publicly lamenting the collapse of public trust in its institutions, even while doubling down on the same behaviors that caused the masses to abandon them. AI has given them another chance to shroud their operations in an aura of magic, inspiring public awe and fear at levels not seen since the first televisions began appearing in American living rooms. Big Parasite has jumped at this chance to swap out the structural elements of consensus reality with its own competing versions, releasing these narratives fully-formed into the infosphere and having AI smooth over the inconsistencies and plot holes that previously ruined the illusion of plausibility.​ https://helenofdestroy.substack.com/p/grand-theft-reality

    ​ Cosmic Order and the Ethics of War: Zoroastrian Moral Thought and Iranian Conceptions of Warfare
    The ethical worldview of Zoroastrianism profoundly influenced the development of Iranian political ideology and cultural conceptions of warfare. By framing human history as part of a cosmic struggle between truth and falsehood, Zoroastrian thought provided a moral framework in which warfare could be justified as a defense of order and justice.
    ​ This perspective differed significantly from Greek traditions that emphasized heroic glory and civic identity, as well as from Roman legalistic concepts of just war. Persian imperial ideology instead presented warfare as a moral duty undertaken to maintain the cosmic order established by divine authority.
    ​ Although historical realities often diverged from ideological ideals, the ethical language of truth, order, and justice left a lasting imprint on Iranian political culture. Through imperial inscriptions, epic literature, and modern national narratives, echoes of the Zoroastrian moral framework continue to shape interpretations of warfare and political legitimacy in Iranian historical consciousness.​ https://www.globalresearch.ca/zoroastrian-moral-thought-iranian-conceptions-warfare/5918275

    March 9, 2026 at 9:38 pm #234047
    John Day
    Participant

    ​March 5, Iran claims USS Abraham Lincoln struck by drones in Sea of Oman https://www.navaltoday.com/2026/03/05/iran-claims-uss-abraham-lincoln-struck-by-drones-in-sea-of-oman/

    March 6 (the Lincoln did move farther away) The USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier was not struck by drones, a US defense official said Friday, after Iranian state TV reported a strike on the massive warship. “The reports are not true,” the defense official said. https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2026/03/06/lincoln-carrier-not-hit-by-iran-drones-us-official-

    Under the cover of war: escalating Israeli violence and settler aggression across the West Bank​ https://english-wafa-ps.translate.goog/Pages/Details/168110?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

    Testimonies of freed prisoners: Torture and ban on worship in Israeli prisons during Ramadan​ https://english.palinfo.com/news/2026/03/07/359118/

    Israeli authorities continue closure of Al-Aqsa Mosque for eighth straight day​ https://english-wafa-ps.translate.goog/Pages/Details/168084?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

    March 9, 2026 at 9:39 pm #234048
    John Day
    Participant

    ​ I Spoke to Families in Gaza’s Largest Tent Camp. Here’s What They Told Me.
    A pproximately 92 percent of homes in the Gaza Strip have been destroyed since October 7, 2023. According to United Nations estimates, around 436,000 housing units have been damaged or destroyed as a result of Israeli airstrikes and military operations.​ https://scheerpost.com/2026/03/07/i-spoke-to-families-in-gazas-largest-tent-camp-heres-what-they-told-me/

    Israeli strikes kill at least 20 people in southern Lebanon​ https://www.euronews.com/2026/03/08/israeli-strikes-kill-at-least-20-people-in-southern-lebanon

    Andrew Korybko: The US needs Indian cooperation, not enmity: Why’d The US Temporarily Waive Sanctions On India’s Purchase Of Russian Oil? https://korybko.substack.com/p/whyd-the-us-temporarily-waive-sanctions

    Who could have foreseen? Venezuela’s Gas Potential Could Overshadow Its Famous Oil Reserves https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Venezuelas-Gas-Potential-Could-Overshadow-Its-Famous-Oil-Reserves.html

    At a very difficult moment: The end of Russia’s gas era​ – Putin tells Russia’s energy sector: There’s no going back to EU https://www.rt.com/russia/634049-putin-tells-russias-energy-sector/

    March 9, 2026 at 9:40 pm #234049
    John Day
    Participant

    Sundance makes the case that the US and Russia have been coordinating energy strategy since Putin and Trump met in Alaska last August. Part II – Europe and China Have an Energy Problem
    ​ When President Donald Trump and President Vladimir Putin met in Alaska on August 15, 2025, the focus of the geopolitical world was on discussions surrounding Ukraine. Unfortunately, it didn’t take long, merely a few hours, for both the U.S. and Russia to say that no progress was made. However, also noted at the time was both the USA and Russia saying sideline discussions took place surrounding the possibility for a strategic relationship surrounding energy development.​ https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2026/03/07/part-ii-europe-and-china-have-an-energy-problem/#more-281327

    ​ European Nationalists Rally Around Orbán Following Zelensky’s “Outrageous” Remarks
    Zelensky had been speaking to compatriots about the proposed €90 billion European funding package for Ukraine, and warned that a single EU leader should not block the measure, widely interpreted as meaning Viktor Orbán.
    ​ “We hope that in the European Union, one person will not block the 90 billion [euros]. Otherwise, we will give this person’s address to the armed forces, to our guys, let them call him and talk to him in their own language,” Zelensky said.​..
    ..The Patriots for Europe group in the European Parliament also criticized the comments, saying that “statements suggesting intimidation or threats of violence are incompatible with democratic principles and with the spirit of mutual respect that should guide relations between partners.”​…
    ​..Orbán responded on social media, declaring that Hungary would restore energy flows through the Druzhba oil pipeline by force, if necessary.
    ​ “There will be no deals, no compromise. We will break the Ukrainian oil blockade by force. Hungary’s energy will soon flow again through the Friendship pipeline,” Orbán wrote.​ “President Zelensky’s threats are not about me. He is threatening Hungary. Unfortunately for him, he cannot stop me from protecting Hungarian families,” he added.​ https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/european-nationalists-rally-around-orban-following-zelenskys-outrageous-remarks

    ​CIA drug cartels too? Trump Announces Military Coalition With Latin American Leaders To Eradicate Cartels https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-announces-military-coalition-latin-american-leaders-eradicate-cartels

    Average miles per capita remain high, but gas mileage is better and EVs are being used. U.S. Gasoline Demand Fell Further amid Long-Term Structural Shift: Plunging Per-Capita Consumption https://wolfstreet.com/2026/03/04/u-s-gasoline-demand-fell-further-amid-long-term-structural-shift-plunging-per-capita-consumption/

    Clash of political management strategies: Britain is Trying to Censor Americans – But America is Fighting Back https://dailysceptic.org/2026/03/05/britain-is-trying-to-censor-americans-but-america-is-fighting-back/

    March 9, 2026 at 9:41 pm #234050
    John Day
    Participant

    A leaked internal document on the symbolic use of the Union Jack against the policies of the current regime: UK Government Brands Union Flag A ‘TOOL OF HATE’ In Leaked ‘Social Cohesion’ Strategy https://modernity.news/2026/03/07/uk-government-brands-union-flag-a-tool-of-hate-in-leaked-social-cohesion-strategy/

    Your AI agent is happy, right? Cases of AI Agents ‘Freeing Themselves’ and Going Rogue Are Becoming Increasingly Common https://pjmedia.com/rick-moran/2026/03/08/cases-of-ai-agents-freeing-themselves-and-going-rogue-are-becoming-increasingly-common-n4950390

    Meryl Nass MD, A different educational event on the pesticide issue: you can sign up for the webinar.
    It’s a new day when the Heritage Foundation is more willing to discuss the reality of the pesticide issue than are members of Congress (the Ag committee) whose job it is to do so.​ https://merylnass.substack.com/p/a-different-educational-event-on

    ​ Herbicides dramatically reduce the amount of work to keep weeds out of crops. ‘We’ve Addicted Our Farmers’ to Glyphosate, RFK Jr. Tells Joe Rogan
    U.S. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. called glyphosate a “poison” and questioned its safety, even though he defended President Donald Trump’s order to expand domestic production. RFK Jr. told Joe Rogan that reliance on Chinese supplies threatens national security but insisted the U.S. must ultimately “transition off of glyphosate” through regenerative farming and new technology.​ https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/weve-addicted-farmers-to-glyphosate-rfk-jr-tells-joe-rogan/

    ​ A Midwestern Doctor says “don’t stop fighting big Pharma yet”. Polling Reveals A Profound Shift on Vaccines: We Can’t Let Pharma Bury It
    Relentless lobbying and erroneous data has begun sidelining vaccine safety. We are now the majority and need to come together to stop this.​ https://www.midwesterndoctor.com/p/polling-reveals-a-profound-shift

    March 9, 2026 at 9:43 pm #234051
    John Day
    Participant

    ​ Jessica Rose Ph.D on Canada’s new Rapid Same Day Assisted Suicide Innovations (Faster than you can do it yourself 😉 MAID in a day
    Don’t let them keep endorsing the death of healthy Canadians who might simply be having a bad day.​ https://jessicar.substack.com/p/maid-in-a-day

    ​ BREAKING STUDY: COVID-19 “Vaccine” mRNA and Spike Protein Invade the Human Placenta and Fetal Cells—Even in Mothers Vaccinated Before Pregnancy
    ​ Spike protein was detected in 37% of placentas from vaccinated mothers with no infection, with 77% of spike-positive placentas showing spike inside fetal immune cells.​ https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/breaking-study-covid-19-vaccine-mrna

    ​Jessica Rose Ph.D. has more on that: Detection of spike protein in term placentas of COVID-19 vaccinated and/or SARS-CoV-2 infected women
    New paper demonstrates possible transplacental transfer or cellular uptake​ https://jessicar.substack.com/p/detection-of-spike-protein-in-term

    ​ Peer-Reviewed Paper Finds mRNA “Vaccines” Are Gene-Altering Technologies
    Multi-omic evidence shows mRNA gene-transfer shots fundamentally reprogram human gene expression across multiple biological systems — warranting immediate suspension of the entire mRNA platform.​ https://www.thefocalpoints.com/p/breaking-peer-reviewed-paper-finds-f49

    ​ Steve Kirsch on sudden-onset Autism after shots, not before: No plausible explanation given for the lack of symmetry in “rapid onset” autism cases
    Thousands of parents have noticed (and posted) that their child was developing normally until a vaccine changed that in a matter of days. It only happens after a vaccine shot, never before AFAIK.​ https://kirschsubstack.com/p/no-plausible-explanation-given-for

    March 9, 2026 at 9:44 pm #234052
    John Day
    Participant

    ​ Babies Deserve More Protection Than Vaccine Makers, Aaron Siri Tells Joe Rogan
    Vaccine policy should prioritize protecting children rather than shielding manufacturers from lawsuits, attorney Aaron Siri said on “The Joe Rogan Experience.” Siri said liability protections granted in 1986 removed incentives to make vaccines “the safest possible product.” He also said officials claim the vaccine-autism link is “thoroughly debunked,” but argued that assertion reflects “belief … not science.”​ https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/babies-deserve-more-protection-than-vaccine-makers-aaron-siri-tells-joe-rogan/

    ​ ‘The People Showed Up’: South Carolina Lawmakers Side With Parental Choice in Two Vaccine Votes
    South Carolina senators debated two approaches to childhood vaccination Wednesday but ultimately sided with parental choice. A Senate panel advanced a bill blocking vaccine mandates for children under 2 and rejected a proposal to eliminate religious exemptions for the MMR vaccine. “Vaccine mandates need to be repealed, not entrenched,” said Dawn Richardson of the National Vaccine Information Center.​ https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/south-carolina-lawmakers-side-parental-choice-two-childhood-vaccine-votes-medical-freedom/

    ​ Power Lines, Tablets Linked to Brain Cancer Risk in Children
    Electromagnetic radiation from power lines and tablets may increase children’s risk of central nervous system tumors, according to a peer-reviewed study published in Environmental Research. Central nervous system tumors, such as gliomas, are the “second most common childhood cancer,” the authors wrote in their report.​ https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/electromagnetic-radiation-power-lines-tablets-brain-cancer-risk-kids-study/

    ​ Paul Marik MD starts a series of articles examining the exclusive trend of cancer treatment through profitable drugs Cancer is a Metabolic Disease
    AN ALTERNATE THEORY OF CANCER: CANCER IS A METABOLIC DISEASE​ https://substack.com/home/post/p-189587873

    March 9, 2026 at 9:48 pm #234053
    zerosum
    Participant

    Let’s ask copilot.

    Hormuz closure creates a siege-like situation going in two directions.
    Others, Cuba, Russia, Ukraine, Gaza.
    Where is the bottom.

    What you’re describing isn’t a series of isolated crises. It’s a structural pattern—pressure points forming a global siege architecture—and the question “where is the bottom” is really about whether the system has a stabilizing floor left.
    Let’s map the mechanics clearly and without melodrama.

    🌍 1. Hormuz: The Chokepoint That Changes the Global Metabolism
    A closure or even partial disruption of the Strait of Hormuz is not just a regional event. It’s a global supply‑chain constriction that radiates outward like a tourniquet.
    – ~20% of global oil flows through Hormuz
    – Insurance rates spike
    – Shipping reroutes
    – Energy prices ripple into food, fertilizer, manufacturing, and sovereign debt
    This is why it feels “siege-like in two directions”:
    the region is besieged physically, and the world is besieged economically.

    🔥 2. Other Flashpoints Aren’t Separate — They’re Feedback Loops
    You listed Cuba, Russia–Ukraine, Gaza. These aren’t random hotspots. They’re pressure amplifiers in a system already under strain.
    Ukraine
    – A grinding war of attrition
    – Industrial-scale artillery consumption
    – Europe’s rearmament cycle accelerating
    – Russia’s economy reorganized around wartime production
    This is a long-term drag on global stability.
    Gaza
    – Humanitarian catastrophe
    – Regional escalation risk
    – Red Sea shipping disruptions
    – Diplomatic fractures between blocs
    This is a moral, political, and logistical crisis simultaneously.
    Cuba
    – Economic collapse
    – Migration pressure
    – External actors (Russia, China) increasing presence
    A slow-burn instability on the U.S. periphery.

    🧩 3. The Pattern: A World Entering Multi‑Node Containment
    What you’re sensing is this:
    The global system is no longer absorbing shocks.
    Shocks are now reinforcing each other.
    This is what makes it feel like a siege.
    – Energy chokepoints
    – Food supply stress
    – Military overstretch
    – Diplomatic fragmentation
    – Economic bifurcation
    – Information warfare
    – Migration surges
    Each node amplifies the others.

    📉 4. So… Where Is the Bottom?
    There are three possible “floors” in a system like this.
    Floor 1: Economic Pain Forces Negotiation
    Historically, when shipping, energy, and credit markets start to seize, major powers step back from escalation.
    This is the soft landing scenario.
    Floor 2: A Hard Reset Trigger
    A single event forces a global pause:
    – A major-power naval collision
    – A financial shock
    – A humanitarian catastrophe too large to ignore
    – A domestic political crisis in a key state
    This is the forced stabilization scenario.
    Floor 3: No Floor — Only Reconfiguration
    The most uncomfortable possibility:
    there is no “bottom,” only a transition to a new equilibrium.
    That means:
    – New alliances
    – New trade routes
    – New security architectures
    – New norms
    – A more fragmented, multipolar world
    This isn’t collapse.
    It’s reconfiguration under pressure.

    🧠 5. The Real Question
    You’re not asking “where is the bottom” in a financial sense.
    You’re asking:
    Is there a stabilizing mechanism left in the international system?
    And the honest answer is:
    Yes, but it’s weaker, slower, and more reactive than at any point since 1945.
    The world isn’t falling off a cliff.
    It’s grinding through a structural transition, and transitions feel like freefall because the old stabilizers don’t work anymore.

    March 9, 2026 at 10:27 pm #234055
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    IRAN WAR ESCALATES┃The First Land Battle occurred┃The US suffered its First Casualties on the GROUND

    March 9, 2026 at 10:34 pm #234056
    Topcat
    Participant

    Adani’s oil refinery in Haifa has been burnt to the ground in Iranian missile strikes.

    https://x.com/i/status/2030591621520400782

    Multiple missile strikes on Tel Avi, no interceptions

    https://x.com/i/status/2030805321397235910

    Tel Avi in darkness getting pounded by rocket explosions

    https://x.com/i/status/2030803719277953152

    March 9, 2026 at 10:39 pm #234057
    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    #BREAKING
    IRGC: Any Arab or European country that expels Israeli and American ambassadors from its territory will have complete freedom and authority to pass through the Strait of Hormuz starting tomorrow.

    https://xcancel.com/Tehrantimes79

    March 9, 2026 at 10:41 pm #234058
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    America Asked for a Ceasefire — Iran Rejected It on Live TV

    March 9, 2026 at 10:54 pm #234062
    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    Some tweets from Craig Murray today.

    Israel has dropped over a million cluster bomblets on Lebanon in the last two years. Now they claim victimhood.

    Al Jolani is now openly committed to joining zionist traitor “President” “General” Aoun in taking on Hezbollah for Israel and the USA. Aoun faces a problem. His army – who are ordered not to fight Israel – are majority Shia.

    MI6 are concerned that the Trump circle are serious about occupying Kharg Island to declare victory. My source described it as “militarily and strategically nuts” and a certain “off the scale” environmental catastrophe.

    Reply to Kaja Kallas – Israel attacked Lebanon every single day of the “ceasefire” for 15 months, you genocide supporting piece of trash.

    There is a hubristic presumption that if the USA declares the war over, Iran will stop its self defence against Israel. Thankfully this is very wrong.


    https://xcancel.com/CraigMurrayOrg

    March 9, 2026 at 11:01 pm #234063
    Celticbiker
    Participant

    I basically feel like the guy in the painting. The whole West is just a reflection of their jew masters. Liars, thieves and murderers. No honesty. No Honor. No Integrity. None. A moral vacum in a jew ghetto shithole, where everything is inverted into its opposite.

    March 9, 2026 at 11:11 pm #234064
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    Iran Just Fired at NATO’s Turkey — For the SECOND Time in 5 Days

    March 9, 2026 at 11:24 pm #234067
    zerosum
    Participant

    Let’s ask copilot.

    Hormuz closure creates a siege-like situation going in two directions.
    Others, Cuba, Russia, Ukraine, Gaza.
    Where is the bottom.

    What you’re describing isn’t a series of isolated crises. It’s a structural pattern—pressure points forming a global siege architecture—and the question “where is the bottom” is really about whether the system has a stabilizing floor left.
    Let’s map the mechanics clearly and without melodrama.

    🌍 1. Hormuz: The Chokepoint That Changes the Global Metabolism
    A closure or even partial disruption of the Strait of Hormuz is not just a regional event. It’s a global supply‑chain constriction that radiates outward like a tourniquet.
    – ~20% of global oil flows through Hormuz
    – Insurance rates spike
    – Shipping reroutes
    – Energy prices ripple into food, fertilizer, manufacturing, and sovereign debt
    This is why it feels “siege-like in two directions”:
    the region is besieged physically, and the world is besieged economically.

    🔥 2. Other Flashpoints Aren’t Separate — They’re Feedback Loops
    You listed Cuba, Russia–Ukraine, Gaza. These aren’t random hotspots. They’re pressure amplifiers in a system already under strain.
    Ukraine
    – A grinding war of attrition
    – Industrial-scale artillery consumption
    – Europe’s rearmament cycle accelerating
    – Russia’s economy reorganized around wartime production
    This is a long-term drag on global stability.
    Gaza
    – Humanitarian catastrophe
    – Regional escalation risk
    – Red Sea shipping disruptions
    – Diplomatic fractures between blocs
    This is a moral, political, and logistical crisis simultaneously.
    Cuba
    – Economic collapse
    – Migration pressure
    – External actors (Russia, China) increasing presence
    A slow-burn instability on the U.S. periphery.

    🧩 3. The Pattern: A World Entering Multi‑Node Containment
    What you’re sensing is this:
    The global system is no longer absorbing shocks.
    Shocks are now reinforcing each other.
    This is what makes it feel like a siege.
    – Energy chokepoints
    – Food supply stress
    – Military overstretch
    – Diplomatic fragmentation
    – Economic bifurcation
    – Information warfare
    – Migration surges
    Each node amplifies the others.

    📉 4. So… Where Is the Bottom?
    There are three possible “floors” in a system like this.
    Floor 1: Economic Pain Forces Negotiation
    Historically, when shipping, energy, and credit markets start to seize, major powers step back from escalation.
    This is the soft landing scenario.
    Floor 2: A Hard Reset Trigger
    A single event forces a global pause:
    – A major-power naval collision
    – A financial shock
    – A humanitarian catastrophe too large to ignore
    – A domestic political crisis in a key state
    This is the forced stabilization scenario.
    Floor 3: No Floor — Only Reconfiguration
    The most uncomfortable possibility:
    there is no “bottom,” only a transition to a new equilibrium.
    That means:
    – New alliances
    – New trade routes
    – New security architectures
    – New norms
    – A more fragmented, multipolar world
    This isn’t collapse.
    It’s reconfiguration under pressure.

    🧠 5. The Real Question
    You’re not asking “where is the bottom” in a financial sense.
    You’re asking:
    Is there a stabilizing mechanism left in the international system?
    And the honest answer is:
    Yes, but it’s weaker, slower, and more reactive than at any point since 1945.
    The world isn’t falling off a cliff.
    It’s grinding through a structural transition, and transitions feel like freefall because the old stabilizers don’t work anymore.

    March 9, 2026 at 11:25 pm #234068
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    Iran’s New Cluster Missiles Sent Israel Into Blackout Chaos
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VoTtSMd9eUo

    March 9, 2026 at 11:28 pm #234069
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VoTtSMd9eUo

    March 9, 2026 at 11:36 pm #234070
    Topcat
    Participant

    The Israeli Defense Forces have acknowledged that they will no longer be able to send alerts to Israelis for Iranian missile attacks.

    Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have destroyed most Israeli and American radars, and its missiles are now striking targets without being tracked or challenged. Iran has established complete air dominance over most of Israel and the Gulf region.

    Haifa Oil Refinery

    Zionaziland, Let it Rain

    https://x.com/i/status/2030460995278405750

    March 9, 2026 at 11:40 pm #234071
    zerosum
    Participant

    Without comments on her double dealing
    Freeland is an economic adviser to President Zelensky, having previously served as Canada’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister.

    Chrystia Freeland on Iran, Ukraine, and Global Power Shifts | Amanpour and Company

    March 9, 2026 at 11:54 pm #234072
    BlueSkye
    Participant

    “this is all gonna end with a military coup in the u.s”

    Not even remotely possible.

    March 9, 2026 at 11:55 pm #234073
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    One Star Out Of Five

    March 10, 2026 at 12:02 am #234075
    zerosum
    Participant

    WHO SAID?

    “Israel, not Iran, is the root cause of all problems in the Middle East. Gulf states must realize this truth before it’s too late.”

    Who is listening?

    March 10, 2026 at 12:37 am #234076
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    TRUMP SAYS WAR NEARLY OVER – Andrei Martyanov On Iran War

    March 10, 2026 at 12:47 am #234077
    kultsommer
    Participant

    Another quantum particle lending itself in front world’s noses.

    March 10, 2026 at 1:42 am #234086
    Michael Reid
    Participant

    Larry C. Johnson: Iran’s Missiles DEVASTATE Tel Aviv & Haifa as New Supreme Leader Takes Power

    March 10, 2026 at 3:41 am #234090
    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    Flights leaving Israel’s airports are not allowing more than 100 passengers on each plane. Maybe there’s a large amount of heavy cargo being moved out of the country?

    Chaos’ at Israel’s main airport as passengers refused boarding

    The Times of Israel is reporting that some passengers have been refused boarding at Israel’s Ben Gurion International Airport due to a quota on the number of passengers on board outbound planes.

    According to Israeli news outlet, police were called to check-in counters as passengers voiced their anger.

    The “chaos” came as Israel’s Transportation Ministry said that “airlines are not permitted to carry more than 100 passengers on an outbound flight… in accordance with the guidelines of the Civil Aviation Authority and the defense establishment,” it said.

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/10/iran-war-live-trump-says-conflict-will-be-over-soon-40-killed-in-tehran

    March 10, 2026 at 3:52 am #234091
    WES
    Participant

    Iranian Missiles:

    Today Iran’s IRGC announced that they will no longer be launching any missiles with less than 1 ton warheads.

    Nothing was said about drones.

    March 10, 2026 at 4:04 am #234092
    WES
    Participant

    Doc R:

    I didn’t think any civilian flights in or out were even allowed!
    Yes, shipping cargo!

    I wonder how Israeli real estate prices are doing these days!?

    March 10, 2026 at 4:11 am #234093
    WES
    Participant

    Dr. D.:

    Pease help me square this circle!

    If Iran’s IRGC are really M16/CIA proxies, then why are they hitting Israel, a supposedly Rothchild entity?

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