Debt Rattle April 20 2020
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Paul Caponigro Backlit Sunflower, Winthrop, MA 1965 • 20 Million COVID19 Tests Per Day Needed To Fully Open US Economy (ABC) • Without M
[See the full post at: Debt Rattle April 20 2020]Paul Caponigro Backlit Sunflower, Winthrop, MA 1965
Very cool/intriguing; I used to know how to do that; f-stop if I recall…
MMT hey, Holmgren is calling it a command/control economy but we are not quite there yet. We will have to wait and see. I am heartened by how much the government actually gives a shit about people during this crisis. Whether the lockdowns are erroneous or not, they are deliberate in their efforts to ameliorate the horrible side effects to peoples livelihoods. It is nice to see people at least trying.
I posted a response to WES in the last thread (twice), but I guess it got lost in cyberspace (twice). I tried a third time here, but that did not work, so here is a fourth (fortunately I saved it in a cut and paste).
The answer is that there are 13 reported deaths from the Japanese cruise ship, and another 55 unresolved active cases, with 7 of those in the critical category (scroll down to Diamond Princess with 712 cases). This comes from worldometer, which Raul posted above.
The concerning thing is that it takes so long for many cases to resolve. We don’t know how many of the active open cases will progress to critical, and we do not know how many critical cases will end in death. The scary statistic is that 21% of resolved cases worldwide end in death.
For awhile I was wondering if anyone would update the Diamond Princess statistics (who monitors them?), but the numbers do change from time to time, so someone is updating the numbers.
This is a problem elsewhere too. The great majority of US/UK cases are still active. More than half of Spanish, Italian and French cases are still active. Here in Korea, where we have reliable data, daily new cases have slowed to a trickle, but we still have 2300 active cases (20-25% of total cases), and 55 of those are critical. We will not have reliable mortality statistics until all of these cases are closed, and that may take weeks or months.
Edited to add: The problem seems to be that I was trying to add a link to the worldometer. With that link in the text, my message would not post.
Boogaloo,
The active cases issues is not that simple. Holland is an example: their recovered cases at Worldometer has been at 250 for ages; they simply don’t publish them. So it looks like they have tons of active cases. I’m sure similar things are happening in other countries.
I’ll just leave this here:
Boogaloo
Kimo
WES
Huskynut
BoscohorowitzSame disappearing act on my posted comments from yesterday. Everything submitted after 11:34 pm just went POOOF ! I had not saved any backup copies of what I had written so consequently 3 hours of fairly careful work went bye-bye with no forwarding address. 4 long eloquently incisive essays of enormously important wisdom are now gone where ever it is that electrons go when they go missing.
I had replied to the above monikered persons, who can never know how much I basically agreed with what they said. Huskynut in particular had come to several insightful conclusions made from excellent observations . Now the thread of conversation is broken and time just keeps rolling along. Not much chance of mending it as the accelerating wave of new information pours in upon us.
My matter. I shall Copy-paste to a scratch pad from now on , as a minimum backup insurance against digital hiccups.
Its all uphill
Ecuador – bodies left in the street.
Mexico – hospitals refusing patients.
Africa – ?????
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Oil – selling below cost, storage full, taxes on oil still being collected
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MMT – Jubilee – is for the elites, I got to put food to eat on the table, choice, give me the money or the food. We are all, (except the elites), using the food bank
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I got no money – who will the gov. get to pay the taxes, to pay the banks, to pay back MMTBoogaloo:
Thanks for the update on Princess Diamond.
Basically you are confirming what I suspected that deaths are higher than most people think.
Since many recoveries are long and hard, some may simply not have the energy to survive the ordeal.
As you point out we won’t know the final results for months or maybe even years.
D Benton Smith:
As they say, it was the thought that counts!
Yes, I know with computers there is a mysterious black hole where good well reasoned thoughts go to die, never to be heard from again!
Or maybe there is a dead end wire where electrons go to leap off their cliff!
Very annoying!
WES
What if those errant electrons are just piling up somewhere in the back of God’s closet ? And we could go find them !
Raul:
Canadian heavy oil is even cheaper! Actually they will pay you to take some off their hands!
Unfortunately, with the lockdown, we aren’t allowed to burn any cheap gas!
D Benton Smith:
No, from my experience, the pirates at the other end make the electrons walk the plank!
WES
Well there’s gotta be a treasurous pile of them electrons stacking up somewhere, and if I’ve got to off a few pirates to get there then it’s all on them. (figuratively speaking, of course.)
A little FAKE NEWS correction…
When Jill Colvin of The Associated Press asked Trump on Sunday about Cuomo’s criticism of his failure to boost testing, the president first attacked her for not saying that the governor had said “we did a phenomenal job.” In fact, Cuomo did not say that. He said that the “phenomenal accomplishment” of flattening the curve of infection had been achieved by the country’s citizens, with the help of federal and state governments. “People did it, but government facilitates people’s actions,” Cuomo said in a part of the clip Trump was talking over as it played in the briefing room. “Heroic efforts on behalf of people, as facilitated by government — federal and state,” he added.
THE BLUE PILL
Obviously 20 million tests a day is inadequate. The whole population needs testing once a week.
We know from the official figures that one in five of those infected will die [concluded cases].
This is obviously serious so anyone infected MUST be removed from society so they can not infect others. Self isolation is not sufficient so internment camps seem appropriate.
To ensure people ARE tested they should be microchipped, like pets. This allows a record to be kept of virus checks. Also detectors in supermarkets can mean that those without microchips will not be allowed in.
The microchips will also be used to record the compulsory vaccination.
Lockdowns should persist until the country is clear of the virus.
THE RED PILL
While not conclusive, it seems plausible that the ‘official’ numbers only represent a tiny fraction of those infected and that the actual death rate is a fraction of 1%.
More antibody tests like the Stanford study should be carried out to get a true picture of the situation.
Polling organisations should be able to provides lists of people giving a good cross section of society.
If the results support the Stanford findings then we can take a more rational view, certainly that lockdowns are inappropriate, and that life can return to normal with the exception of those with high risks.
We need surveys of those infected and not hospitalised. For example, my morbidity rating is 50%, but this is based on those needing hospital treatment. If many more people with my combination of risks did not have any problems then my risk factor is reduced. It is more of a question of ‘do I feel lucky?’
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It does seem like The Matrix, with two overlapping worlds. The difference is that blue pill is chaos and anarchy and the red pill is the return to a normal world.
• US Coronavirus Study Warns Sick Children Could Overwhelm Health System
Back in December, the UK was already facing a shortage of paediatric intensive care (PICU) beds, following “an increase in severe breathing problems in children driven by winter viruses and infections, including flu… many of whom are on a ventilator to help them breathe.”
‘Breaking point’: fears over lack of intensive care beds for children
Exclusive: critically ill children rushed to units across England as NHS struggles to find bedsCritically ill children are being rushed from one part of England to another because NHS hospitals are running short of intensive care beds in which to treat them, the Guardian can reveal.
An increase in severe breathing problems in children driven by winter viruses and infections, including flu, means some are having to be transferred sometimes many miles from their home area because there are not enough paediatric intensive care (PICU) beds locally.
Specialist doctors who staff the units say the situation is “dangerous and rotten for the families” involved and that staff are firefighting to handle the number of children needing sometimes life-saving care, many of whom are on a ventilator to help them breathe.
We should be grateful that our lives are being jerked hither and yon by opposing camps vying for earthly dominion.
Imagine what things would be like around here if there were only one of those teams (or the other) running the whole show ? ( with our best interests at heart, of course)
To no one in particular but just a precautionary safety reminder to the already cynically wary :
“Scoundrels are always willing to tell a truth to serve a lie.”
“Fun Fact” and some implications:
The SARS-CoV-2 virus persists in fecal samples for an average of 27 days, which is 10 days longer than its persistence in respiratory tract samples. A separate preliminary examination of environmental contamination of hospital room air, equipment, personal objects, and toilets at the University of Nebraska Medical Center found widespread contamination even among low-acuity patients without active cough. These research results have grave implications for household protection measures upon discharge for children not yet toilet trained and for parent education, home infection protocols, and postepidemic school preparedness.
From the aforementioned study on ICU beds for children:
https://journals.lww.com/jphmp/Abstract/publishahead/COVID_19_in_Children_in_the_United_States_.99293.aspxAm I losing my mind WHATS HAPPENING!!! CHECK OUT THE NIKKEI AND THE OIL PRICE DID SOMEBODY WORKING FROM HOME FALL ASLEEP?
lastwo
I don’t think that’s what they meant to say with the phrase “My cup runneth over”.
Storage is full. New production keeps flowing in anyway, and there’s no nowhere to put it. What’s the best “cost/benefit/punishment” compromise in this sort of situation ?
Build costly and soon to be useless new storage?
Shut down production, at great expense and consequence, to stem the flow, and lose future income?
Pump it out onto the ground and incur clean-up fees and cash penalties, not to mention horrifying public relations..Pretty scary that they reckon it’s worth paying $37 per barrel just to make it someone else’s problem.
I think someone working from home passed out on their computer. and made a few of the stockmarkets -1 thats what happens when your in your bathrobe at noon and you realize the beer is not just for breakfast.
crude -54.28 but the stock market is doing fine. Just a slight drop. huh. xom is up .08 in aftermarket trading. huh. wtf I think the concept of free markets died today.
it would be nice to buy oil at this price in 10 years it will be 200 a barrel but the price is not reflected in the etfs or the stocks..
Ilargi, yes, I realize that the data are problematic and that not all countries are updating the figures. For awhile I was skeptical of the Diamond Princess figures once all of the passengers got off the ship. But it does seem that someone is following up on them — but who? the cruise ship company?
The Korean figures are the most useful in the sense that (i) they are updated regularly, (ii) there has been widespread testing in Korea that has caught virtually all of the community spread so we have a good sense that we know the entire universe of cases in the country (or at least very close). If the virus was still spreading it would be showing up in the daily figures, but community spread is now down to the single digits here — two cases in Seoul on Sunday, and none yesterday. One limit of the Korean data, however, is that a significant number of the closed cases come from the same church group, and the population demographic most affected in that population was women in their 20s — people who are more likely to have mild cases and who are unlikely to die. Putting all that together, the death rate for closed cases so far is 2.8%, but that number is likely to increase once we get through the remaining 20-25% of open cases. And that is the number in a country where everyone is getting treated and there is no shortage of hospital beds (though these was a shortage for a time in Daegu, the epicenter).
Put it all together and I say that it is wishful thinking to say that the case fatality rate worldwide will be less than 1%. I expect it to be much higher than that.
By the way, Chris Martenson did a great job today of tearing the Stanford study to shreds.
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