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Expect another market moving tweet in the next 72 hours.
A massive oil trade landed just before another market-moving announcement tied to the Iran war, and this time it looked even harder to dismiss as lucky timing. On April 17 at 12: 24 GMT, traders sold 7, 990 Brent futures lots in a single minute, according to Reuters reporting based on London Stock Exchange Group data. At prevailing prices, that was roughly $760 million positioned for a drop in crude.
Twenty minutes later, at 12: 45 GMT, Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi posted on X that the Strait of Hormuz was fully open to commercial traffic for the duration of the ceasefire. Oil reacted instantly. Brent fell 11 percent. U.S. benchmark WTI dropped 12 percent and slid below $83 a barrel. The trade placed minutes earlier turned into a windfall.
What makes the episode explosive is the pattern. Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC and other outlets have already linked regulators to a broader review of suspicious oil bets placed before previous policy signals tied to the Trump administration’s handling of the Iran conflict. On March 23, roughly $500 million in bearish oil positions were placed about 15 minutes before Trump posted that strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure would be delayed. Crude fell 15 percent. On April 7, another $950 million was reportedly positioned before the U.S. and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire, followed by a 16 percent drop in oil. With the April 17 trade included, the total value of these well-timed positions rises above $2.2 billion in less than a month.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission had already opened an official investigation before this latest trade. Bloomberg reported on April 15 that the agency was examining suspicious activity tied to the earlier swings. Reuters confirmed on April 17 that the probe covers the March 23 and April 7 transactions and is expected to widen naturally after the new Hormuz-linked move. Investigators have reportedly requested records from CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange, including Tag 50 identifiers used to trace the real individuals behind orders.
The official responses have been sharp and predictable. The White House has called any suggestion that administration figures may have used non-public information baseless and accused critics of irresponsible journalism. CME says market integrity is its top priority and argues any analysis should also include prediction platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. ICE has declined to comment publicly.
Congress is pushing too. Representative Ritchie Torres asked both the SEC and the CFTC to investigate and disclose the beneficial owners behind the accounts involved. Senators Elizabeth Warren and Sheldon Whitehouse followed with their own pressure. A bipartisan bill introduced in late March would ban public officials and executive branch employees from using non-public information to trade event contracts on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi.
The wider context is why this story matters beyond trading desks. Since the war began on February 28, Brent has climbed nearly 40 percent. ING estimated that major disruption in Hormuz could remove around 13 million barrels a day from the global market. Mid-April warnings from the International Energy Agency suggested Europe may have had only weeks of aviation fuel cover left under worst-case conditions. While households and businesses absorb the cost of fuel spikes, somebody keeps landing on the right side of giant oil trades minutes before the headlines.
JD Vance has a new book coming out in June.
“Communion, Finding My Way Back to Faith”
Wonder if Trump vs Pope fluff up will boost sales.
https://gregreese.substack.com/p/roy-cohn-and-the-orange-colored-con?autoPlay=true
China buys 80% of Iranian oil. How is this going to work? While it may help get more ships thru, I doubt they are going to board Chinese ships with Iranian oil.
On 4/7 oil closed down 16%. The 2x inverse ETF (SCO) closed up 2.5% (I would have expected 32%, but markets aren’t in my wheelhouse)
“A whole civilization will die tonight”
The fruit of blasphemy is judgement. To the victor go the spoils.
“Divide the world into regional groups as a transitional stage to world government. Populations will more readily abandon their national loyalty to a vague regional loyalty than they will for a world authority. Later the regions can be brought together all the way into a single world dictatorship.” (Joseph Stalin)
Isn’t this basically what Corbett is saying and the promethean grannies selling?
Israel strikes large petrochemical plant at South Pars, which is responsible for half of the country’s petrochemical production.
This probably wrenches any deal by Tuesday night. See how the Jawboner handles this one.
Glory be to God….Praise be to Allah.
Who is the crazy bastard now?
The bankers fund both sides. Why should this time be any different?
What are the odds that the forces in the gulf are insufficient to bring about stated objectives?
What are those objectives and can they be achieved with a blip in the S&P500 index?
How do you open the straight of Hormuz?
How do you prevent missile attacks on allied Gulf states?
How do you prevent the IRGC, the Houthis, the militant Shias, Hezbollah and Hamas from hitting Israel with missiles day in and day out?
How do you prevent Israel from targeting negotiators?
Bessent claims he helped collapse the Iranian economy.
As of March 2026, Iran is exporting approximately 1 million to 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, maintaining near-prewar levels despite broader disruptions in the region. While overall traffic in the waterway has significantly decreased, Iran has continued to load tankers, with much of the oil destined for China.
The Torah and Quran claim that God promised them the same land.
Both Christian Zionists and Shia clerics believe the final war over Jerusalem. It is not only inevitable but necessary.
Trump is surrounded by Zionists.
Gods covenant promises were fullfilled in Jesus Christ, not in a future ethnic Israeli state.
The Kingdom of God shouldn’t be confused with the political interests of any political nation.
Israel killing off individuals that could help broker a deal.
Larijani then Kharazi
Kharg island is hanging out there like a matzah ball.
Trump to confabulate an important update tonight. April 1st no less. Imagine that.
Have the objectives of greater Israel been met? Can Trump unilaterally chart a different course?
Maybe the Promethean grannies can help us make sense of it.
The Wall Street Journal is reporting that President Trump told aides he’s willing to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, administration officials said, likely extending Tehran’s firm grip on the waterway and leaving a complex operation to reopen it for a later date.
In recent days, Trump and his aides assessed that a mission to pry open the chokepoint would push the conflict beyond his timeline of four to six weeks.
He decided that the U.S. should achieve its main goals of hobbling Iran’s navy and its missile stocks and wind down current hostilities while pressuring Tehran diplomatically to resume the free flow of trade.
If that fails, Washington would press allies in Europe and the Gulf to take the lead on reopening the strait, the officials said.
The longer the strait remains closed, the more it will roil the global economy and boost gas prices.
Anonymous sources are claiming the Ethan Hunt and a crack team of IMF agents are being sent in to retrieve the enriched uranium.
