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  • in reply to: Debt Rattle June 23 2023 #137617
    chooch
    Participant

    in reply to: Debt Rattle June 23 2023 #137616
    chooch
    Participant

    in reply to: Debt Rattle June 21 2023 #137491
    chooch
    Participant

    Prigozhin broke into the top 10 most trusted politicians last month

    Одобрение институтов, рейтинги политиков: май 2023 года

    Kinda was looking like he was going to pull back on trash talking the MoD after signing his men over. Predictive programming? Make sure the ire of the Russian people is directed at the MoD in the event this goes south?

    A few days, some theories on why Prigozhin has the green light to talk smack.

    https://meduza.io/amp/en/feature/2023/06/19/the-mystery-of-evgeny-prigozhin

    in reply to: Debt Rattle June 19 2023 #137240
    chooch
    Participant

    aspnaz,

    Lots of empty space in this puzzle. Kinda odd that CelticBiker was chumming chew for quite awhile before the commentariat took the bait and then didn’t join the discussion.

    in reply to: Debt Rattle June 18 2023 #137220
    chooch
    Participant

    Girkin, from a month ago,

    Girkin, today,

    in reply to: Debt Rattle June 18 2023 #137219
    chooch
    Participant

    Girkin, from a month ago,

    Anton Gerashchenko on Twitter: “Terrorist Girkin-Strelkov reveals who’s behind Prigozhin, making parallels with Russia of 1917. https://t.co/O7X0T0Twri” / Twitter

    Girkin, today,

    Anton Gerashchenko on Twitter: “Terrorist Girkin-Strelkov believes that Prigozhin lost to Shoigu in their disagreement. Allegedly, a few days ago a meeting between Putin and Prigozhin took place and there are rumors that Prigozhin needs to obey Shoigu’s orders. In Girkin-Strelkov’s opinion, Prigozhin will now… https://t.co/IUuMUz9eve” / Twitter

    in reply to: Debt Rattle June 18 2023 #137218
    chooch
    Participant

    Dr. D Rich,

    Follow up: Prigozhin’s back.

    Girkin, from a month ago,

    Girkin, today,

    in reply to: Debt Rattle June 17 2023 #137102
    chooch
    Participant

    Regarding consciousness,

    Not evil in others, of which we seem to be well aware, but evil in ourselves. Evil that we know we would commit given the right circumstances.

    in reply to: Debt Rattle June 17 2023 #137101
    chooch
    Participant

    At SPIEF (St. Petersburg Intl Economic Forum) 2023, you (Prigozhin) were named trendsetter of the year, meaning you set trends in modern reality. How do you feel about this assessment and what do you think about it?

    “I think that modern trends are dictated by the Russian soldier and the Russian people, who have decided that they do not want lies, do not want deceit and do not want double standards.

    As for the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, a friend of mine emailed me a series of photos from the Internet, or rather collages – on the one hand, today’s forum, and on the other hand, what is happening at the front. These are two realities. What is happening today at the St. Petersburg forum is called a feast during the plague. And it has nothing to do with the economy, it has to do with the secular lifestyle and the parties that used to be in London. And now they are not enough for a certain number of elites.”

    https://t.me/Prigozhin_hat/3738

    in reply to: Debt Rattle June 17 2023 #137100
    chooch
    Participant

    Dr. D Rich,

    Who has Prigozhin’s back?

    “I sent this contract through several channels, tried to pass it through the mail acceptance window to the Ministry of Defense, this is what you saw. I sent it by mail and handed it over to the courier, so that they would definitely receive it. I will not disclose all the nuances of the contract yet. I think that the Ministry of Defense itself will merge it in the near future, as soon as it receives it, ”publishes Prigozhin’s audio message from his press office.

    Seems to want to sign over his men. Looks like he wanted a video time stamp of his efforts.

    "Today I took the letter with the contract to the Russian Ministry of Defense. And here’s what came out of it." Wagner PMC CEO Yevgeny Prigozhin [part 1/2]
    by u/hot3000mails in UkraineWarVideoReport

    "Today I took the letter with the contract to the Russian Ministry of Defense. And here’s what came out of it." Wagner PMC CEO Yevgeny Prigozhin [part 2/2]
    by u/hot3000mails in UkraineWarVideoReport

    in reply to: Debt Rattle June 15 2023 #136975
    chooch
    Participant

    [..] In 1889, Wallace published a short book “Forty-five years of Registration Statistics, proving Vaccination to be both useless and dangerous”. Much of the book reads as if it was published in 2021. It begins:

    HAVING been led to enquire for myself as to the effects of Vaccination in preventing or diminishing Small-pox, I have arrived at results as unexpected as they appear to me to be conclusive. The question is one which affects our personal liberty as well as the health and even the lives of thousands; it therefore becomes a duty to endeavour to make the truth known to all, and especially to those who, on the faith of false or misleading statements, have enforced the practice of vaccination by penal laws.

    https://nakedemperor.substack.com/p/history-never-repeats-itself-but?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2

    in reply to: Debt Rattle June 15 2023 #136952
    chooch
    Participant

    Prigozhin is still trending, claims he attended Berlusconi’s funeral. Prior to that (Tuesday) he did a photo op with Victor Bout, the Russian arms dealer that was exchanged for the WNBA bballer. Linked? Probably joking but who knows, clandestine meeting a funeral, 007 stuff. Media is churning the news that Wagner plans to rejoin the battle Aug. 5th but won’t sign contracts with the MoD by the July 1st. In the interim, he is visiting families of families of fallen sons and posting videos. His popularity is probably helping recruiting efforts.

    https://jamestown.org/program/tricky-recruiting-in-russia-2023-spring-conscripts-and-volunteers/

    in reply to: Debt Rattle June 13 2023 #136837
    chooch
    Participant

    How do you assess the course of the Special Military Operation in general?
    Is there any information about what, after Bakhmut, may be the next area of ​​work for PMC Wagner in Ukraine?

    “You understand that for a number of reasons (after all, Denmark is not an ally) I cannot fully answer all your questions. I can say one thing, that any offensive must be evaluated, and its results, after the enemy’s offensive potential has been exhausted. As far as I understand, Ukraine’s offensive potential is far, far from exhausted. And therefore, as they say in Russia, we count chickens in the fall. It will take a month and a half or two, and we will have to decide whether they have achieved their result or not.
    Regarding the further work of Wagner PMC in Ukraine. I’m not sure that we will work in Ukraine. As a trolling, I can say that we are going to relocate to the north of Mexico.”

    in reply to: Debt Rattle June 13 2023 #136835
    chooch
    Participant

    Thought defends its basic assumptions against evidence it may be wrong. (David Bohm)

    Applies to me as much as anybody, no target implied.

    I had some follow up thoughts regarding Prigozhin (he was busy today), He is claiming more people wanting to sign with Wagner. I think he has been green lighted by Putin to “shit talk” the MoD. He was visiting families of fallen Wagnerites at their homes and grave sites. Touring a factory that make BTR-60s and giving employees an update. On telegram, someone asked him what he was doing next. He said he was going to take his men to the north of Mexico. Does that me south of the border or Texas? Hard to tell with these Russian to English translators. All very intriguing nonetheless.

    in reply to: Debt Rattle June 12 2023 #136738
    chooch
    Participant

    Prigozhin is in open conflict with Shoigu and the MoD. In his June 5th interview he said,

    “Shoigu and the higher-ups should be at the front, like the Ukrainians do”

    “Shoigu and his idiot daughter will do what they always do”

    “Shoigu needs to get his ass over to Belgorod”

    “A genocide of the Russian people has been organized, Shoigu is deliberately participating in the genocide of the Russian people”

    “The two safest places in case of a nuclear war are where Shoigu and other MoD officials are because the West will never touch the people who are winning the war for them”

    “Gerasimov is an alcoholic who drinks to the point of hallucinations”

    “The Russian people will rise up against them, eventually, if the Duma doesn’t order the execution of MoD officials”

    Prigozhin’s harsh statements against the head of the Ministry of Defense provoked a strong reaction on social networks (Telegram) 85% supported them, about 7% say that there is no need to engage in civil strife in such difficult times for the country.

    Check out this body language.

    in reply to: Debt Rattle June 12 2023 #136697
    chooch
    Participant

    Prigozhin publicly feuding with the MoD again.

    Igor sushko finished translating the previous interview that was posted last week. In it he made the following statements.

    Things are going badly around Bakhmut for the Russian army. Bakhmut will be taken by the UAF soon

    Zaporozhye (the southern front) is already a disaster

    Berdyansk and Mariuple are next and many locals support the UAF

    *Wagner now has everything an army needs even planes, intelligence, satellites

    Progozhin demands 200k men and a new army under his command

    The Russian front has already been pierced in several points, around Bakhmut, the south and now in Belgorod

    Battles still continue around Shebekina, in Russia, which the MoD hides

    The Belgorod attacks are a classic feint to draw attention to the north to prepare for the southern push

    The Russian aim here is to lay waste to as much of Ukraine as they can, if it can’t be theirs.

    Substacker, Cathy Young, tried to make some sense of Prigozhin’s motives.

    https://plus.thebulwark.com/p/yevgeny-prigozhin-unbound

    in reply to: Schrödinger’s War – And Orwell’s #136428
    chooch
    Participant

    Per the water level graph (see today’s debt rattle), the 16.5 meter mark seems to be the upper limit going back several years. I believe Russia had control of the sluice gates and were keeping relatively few open. As a result, levels had reached a 30 year high (17.5 meters) this past month. Remember, the crossing across the dam had been damaged last fall when Russian troops regrouped on the other side of the river. Could the dam simply have failed?

    XFiles, demons and quantum entanglement.

    Whatever is behind the UFO phenomenon, Vallée says, “it’s a lot smarter than we are, and it uses humor at another level.”

    https://www.wired.com/story/jacques-vallee-still-doesnt-know-what-ufos-are/

    in reply to: Kiev’s Long Term Plans To Blow Up The Kakhovka Dam #136360
    chooch
    Participant

    Seems we are flooded with information, the sources of are many. One source, Prigozhin has been strangely vocal this past month about the Russian MoD.

    There is a telegram channel, Prigozhin_hat (400k+ followers) , that recently uploaded this long interview with Victoria Tolkacheva (Not sure who she is yet)

    https://t.me/Prigozhin_hat/3613

    Not many translations or commentary available as of yet.

    https://twitter.com/GalileoArms/status/1665976573344849921

    Victoria Tolkacheva’s full interview with Yevgeny Prigozhin, Wagner’s leader at his training base.

    – About the capture of the Armed Forces of Ukraine of the previously abandoned positions in the Bakhmut area: the enemy has an understandable standard tactic: they feel the defense, fit in and increase their efforts.

    – Mobilization is needed, long-term training of the fighters is needed, and what is happening now is chaos.

    – About Belgorod: to stop what is happening, a public trial of all those involved under the law is needed.

    – Prigozhin wrote a statement to the prosecutor’s office that it was necessary to initiate a process, to carry out an investigation into the murder of Russian citizens, on the fact of the genocide of the Russian population, on the fact of transferring the territories of the Russian Federation to the enemy

    – The Belgorod region asks PMC “Wagner” to come. First we must go out, and then we will not be able to go there, since we will be blocked and we will not be allowed. If Wagner gets there, nothing can be hidden, and now they just deceive and say that everything is more or less in order there. They wanted to block and destroy us in Bakhmut, that’s why there were explosives on the way. Of course, they are afraid, because it is very close to the region of Belgorod to Rublyovka, and suddenly we will go to ask where our ammunition is.

    – Who gave the order to undermine the back roads is a separate issue. The lieutenant colonel extracted the wrong units, not the territories that could stop the enemy. They mined along the PMC withdrawal routes. The FSB and other agencies are carrying out a deep control over this lieutenant colonel.

    – About the fact that public methods to solve relationships and reveal problems delight the enemy and do not bring anything good to our side: for almost a year they remained silent and went like sheep to the slaughterhouse, but society should know when the problem is total. It is necessary to express and not correct mistakes. The first thing to do is to restore the army’s respect for itself. Next, the military leaders that they are, must be in the trenches with the soldiers.

    in reply to: Debt Rattle May 31 2023 #136042
    chooch
    Participant

    Dr. D,

    Here is a link to Lira’s wiki biography page.

    https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gonzalo_Lira#Biograf%C3%ADa

    He makes the following claim (ref. 12)

    Según él durante su estancia en Chile llegó a trabajar una década para la CIA, algo que lo ayudó e influyó en sus futuras novelas.

    Translation:

    According to him, during his stay in Chile he worked for the CIA for a decade, something that helped him and influenced his future novels.

    Hey, maybe he is on the up and up as you believe and hopefully, at the very least, the CIA still owes him favor.

    in reply to: Debt Rattle May 29 2023 #135924
    chooch
    Participant

    Remember, one of the people on the “kill list”, was Gonzalo Lira – who was picked up in Kharkiv for questioning by the SBU in April 2022 and released perfectly unharmed a few days later.

    Here is what was reported of him after his initial catch and release.

    “Lira is a Chilean-American citizen currently in Kharkov in north-eastern Ukraine where he has lived with his Ukrainian wife and children for some years. Lira rose to prominence as an online citizen journalist with the outbreak of hostilities in late February after Russian forces entered Ukraine for reporting what was actually happening around him in Kiev (where he happened to be at the start of hostilities) and then later in Kharkov on his YouTube channel. Western audiences aware of the disinformation being pushed on them by Western MSM outlets began following Lira and soon alternative news media websites began featuring his reports and interviewing him. His profile rose even more when he failed to turn up to a Zoom interview with British journalist George Galloway on 17 April 2022 and for several days he did not post anything to YouTube or Twitter, causing alarm among his audience who feared he had been arrested, tortured and even murdered by the feared Ukrainian SBU or neo-Nazi gangs. The Chilean Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed his disappearance after searching for him. On 22 April 2022, Gonzalo Lira announced through an interview conducted by Alex Christoforou of The Duran that he was alive and well, and had been detained by the SBU since 15 April 2022.”

    Fast forward to this year and he has been arrested again, essentially for the same reasons. Did that bachelor pad shithole have any evidence of the female touch? Children? He has a self funded a safehouse for his family? There was an “obvious table” with Putin books with Putin’s face for the camera to capture. Kinda looks like he needed cover to exit a role scripted for him, CIA perhaps.

    Uncanny that this happens at the same time Ritter on Russian state media, as part of his book tour in Russia telling the Russians that Americans think Russia is winning. More CIA hijinks?

    in reply to: Debt Rattle May 27 2023 #135856
    chooch
    Participant

    Brew master said,

    “I am totally convinced that Yevgeny Prigozhin’s latest outbursts are a carrot to the NATO politicians, the ones looking for some Russian weakness that they can exploit to give themselves a better chance of beating Russia (Putin).”

    During the outburst, when Prigozhin was threatening to pull out of Bakhmut, he had claimed that Wagner was the main force that saved Assad in Syria and was undermined by the Russian MoD every step of the way. Recently, there was an article in the War Horse detailing a Feb. 2018 battle between US special forces and Russian mercenaries in Syria which seems to corroborate his statement regarding being undermined by the MoD.

    The article claimed

    [..] Wagner mercenaries had a surface-to-air system that made it impossible for American aircraft to press the attack. Only after officials in Washington talked to their Russian counterparts did the surface-to-air system get shut down, allowing American aircraft to return and attack.

    [..] but sources have estimated between 100 and 300 Russian and pro-Syrian fighters were killed or wounded in the battle. Russian officials claim only five Russian citizens died, but audio recordings of Wagner Group soldiers suggest hundreds of mercenaries were killed. One Wagner Group veteran confirmed the Apache attack in the recordings, describing it as “a fucking merry-go-round with heavy-caliber machine guns.”

    If true, seems Prigozhin would have a legitimate axe to grind with the powers that lead to his men getting killed.

    Ganbei

    in reply to: Debt Rattle May 8 2023 #134854
    chooch
    Participant

    Dr. D,

    In December, Russia passed laws to fine/arrest anyone found discrediting the military. Therefore Russia milbloggers and citizens went quiet on social media. This guy provides a weekly podcast, seems like a rational assessment.

    Russian Milblogger on telegram

    https://t.me/DmitriySteshin/7680

    [translation]

    “I couldn’t watch Prigozhin’s video with the dead “Wagnerites” in full. Yesterday I met a militia friend, still the first wave. He says they stopped gathering for the holidays. Any gatherings turn into a feast for dead comrades, and then smoothly flow into a scandal on the topic – “what are we doing / did wrong.” It is unbearable. My personal martyrology will not fit into the form for submitting a post to the TG, so I just try not to think about it. I can’t change anything, getting into the same martyrology is easy. Let everything go as it is, God will manage. And Prigogine’s words are also a translation of God’s will. And there will be a harvest, there will be the first May thunderstorm, and those who are purer and more righteous will win.”

    in reply to: Debt Rattle May 7 2023 #134775
    chooch
    Participant

    Early days, Lira and Ritter have short lived podcast bromance and crack-up. Today, Lira is in jail and Ritter is in St. Petersburg speaking. That’s some crazy quantum entanglement. It says Lira was married. That apartment he has arrested in looked like a bachelor pad shithole.

    in reply to: Putin and Wagner #134715
    chooch
    Participant
    in reply to: Debt Rattle May 3 2023 #134558
    chooch
    Participant

    Cool

    “Last week an incredibly insightful federal judge issued a decision and order that will allow, for the first time in 44 years, children in Mississippi to attend school when their parents’ convictions do not permit them to be vaccinated.“

    https://aaronsiri.substack.com/p/freedom-rings-in-mississippi?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=web

    in reply to: Debt Rattle April 29 2023 #134363
    chooch
    Participant

    Dr. D wrote,

    “Are you all as astonished as I am at the resiliency of all markets in the face of that M2 plunge? I believe that’s unprecedented in the history of the world. Maybe the collapse of all Egyptian Wheat to Rome, or the Worldwide crop fail in 500AD, but way back.”

    Not really, it seems relative to trendline there is quite a long way left to go. Plotting it as a percent change, YoY masks the pop due to Covid bucks. Without this context it creates a really scary chart, one for the got gold crowd. Though, Buffet and Zell seem to have that “come to papa” look in their eyes.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL

    in reply to: Debt Rattle April 28 2023 #134274
    chooch
    Participant
    in reply to: Debt Rattle April 26 2023 #134140
    chooch
    Participant

    “The vaccine decreases the ability to produce white blood cells by 50% from your first vaccine…” (Anonymous Big Pharma Whistleblower)

    Why is the anonymity needed? Whistles for sure, the ringing of the ears and all.

    They would like you to think that the HIV tie in was simply the result of some Covid re-infected HIV person that took months to get over it.

    Can’t say that I share Dr. Jones excitement. Hope you haven’t been sharing needles or getting flu jabbed (or both). I wonder else “messenger” RNA wakes (could) wake up.

    […] “There is prior knowledge of the flu vaccine, for example, waking up HIV and exposing it to the immune system; but it has been unclear whether that was only happening in flu-specific T cells, a known place where HIV hides,” said senior author Dr. Brad Jones, an associate professor of immunology in medicine in the Division of Infectious Diseases at Weill Cornell Medicine. “Our findings are exciting as we demonstrated a more powerful effect with the SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine. It woke up HIV hiding in T cells in blood from people with no previous exposure to the virus or the vaccine.”

    https://news.weill.cornell.edu/news/2022/08/sars-cov-2-mrna-vaccination-exposes-latent-hiv-in-lab-studies

    I am almost as confounded with the Japan as I am with Israel.

    [..] “As cynical as I’ve been towards their consistently pharma-friendly advice, I’ll think I’ll miss the advisory board’s weekly/biweekly output. Both they and I agree the number of Covid vaccines helps to determine the number of Covid deaths in each wave. We just disagree on exactly how it does so.”

    https://guygin.substack.com/p/japans-experts-get-excited-about

    in reply to: Debt Rattle April 22 2023 #133907
    chooch
    Participant

    mpsk,

    The DoD is working on it. In the future, before you get access to the drug, you will have to get the vax first.

    https://physicianresources.dana-farber.org/news/new-receptor-decoy-drug-neutralizes-covid-19-virus-and-its-variants

    in reply to: Debt Rattle April 14 2023 #133451
    chooch
    Participant

    Dr. D, you wrote:

    “Speaking of finance and manipulation, rumor has it China just mega-liquified their system. For why? Because they’re about to hit Taiwan before America has a chance to make more trouble? Because BoA is about to blow up and take out some derivatives books? Stay tuned…”

    Yes, they look to be in the process of re-liquifying their system. To what end? I am still trying to understand Jerome and Janet’s target for real rates. Looks like Fed Funds and CPI have reach parity. During the past 15 years it looks like holding rates real for any length of time caused something to break. So maybe this is an attempt by China to take control of capital markets buy exporting inflation forcing Powell to go Volcker.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/liftoff-imminent-china-injects-record-credit-kickstart-economy

    [..] Bottom line: the 2008 deja vu meter just went off the charts, because while the US is about to sink into a recession with commercial real estate set to fall all off a cliff, it is once again China that is – willingly or otherwise – set to serve as the world’s growth dynamo at a time when the entire developed world is about to max out at the same time.

    This is precisely what happened in 2008 when China unleashed the biggest credit expansion in modern history, sparking not only historic growth spree but also an exponential debt increase that sent China’s debt to over 300% of GDP.

    What happens next? Keep an eye on China’s credit impulse – this most leading indicator of the global reflationary cycle – which is about to rise above its two year highs after which it will again be on its way to new all time highs.

    in reply to: Debt Rattle April 11 2023 #133229
    chooch
    Participant

    T-Rex on the witness stand was wonderful humor. Thanks for the chuckle.

    in reply to: Debt Rattle April 11 2023 #133224
    chooch
    Participant

    Life is full of surprise, my day starts out wondering if dinosaur tastes like chicken.

    in reply to: Debt Rattle April 8 2023 #133058
    chooch
    Participant

    I can see Musk backing Bobby.

    https://www.facebook.com/1411189272541151/posts/pfbid038Fv2qSXRamQMDZEgx8p7HpcCEJfTLqxMpaKDtvBK1QsGR6urGPMYM74eH2J1GUYyl/?mibextid=cr9u03

    [..] Due to my long, strange friendship with Roger Ailes–which began in 1975 when we spent the summer in a tent together in Africa (It’s a long story!)–the now deceased executive regularly allowed me to appear and express contrary opinions on Fox talk shows.

    He drew a line, however, against direct criticism of his advertisers. In 2014, I was involved in the creation of a documentary critical of big Pharma, I asked him for an opportunity to discuss the subject on Neal Cavuto’s talk show. His answer was a hard “No!”

    “Bobby,” he told me, “during non-election years, the bulk of news division revenue comes from pharmaceutical advertisers. I would fire any Fox host who allowed you on their show. And if I didn’t Rupert [Murdoch, the network owner] would be on the phone with me in 10 minutes demanding scalps.”

    Elon Musk has proposed a return to the old standard which holds newscasters accountable for lying on our publicly owned airwaves. Anyone who cares about American democracy ought to agree.

    in reply to: Debt Rattle April 6 2023 #132882
    chooch
    Participant
    in reply to: Debt Rattle April 5 2023 #132803
    chooch
    Participant

    The irony of it all. That would be some crazy voodoo if Pfizer, Moderna… can shift the blame for the damage done by the mRNA biological onto Trump. If he makes it to the debate stage, this could be a smack down moment.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/555247-trump-takes-credit-for-vaccine-rollout-one-of-the-greatest-miracles/amp/

    Former President Trump on Tuesday gave himself credit for the current coronavirus vaccine rollout, calling it “one of the greatest miracles of the ages.”….

    https://www.science.org/content/article/exclusive-qa-robert-f-kennedy-jr-trumps-proposed-vaccine-commission

    (Jan. 10th, 2017)

    ScienceInsider caught up with Kennedy by telephone in an airport flight lounge shortly after he met with Trump in New York City. He made it clear that CDC’s vaccine scientists and practices will be a major focus of the commission’s work. Excerpts from our interview, which have been edited for brevity and clarity, appear below.

    Q: What happened in the meeting?

    A: It was an hour meeting and the vice president–elect came in to the last 15 minutes. The meeting was with [Trump] and Kellyanne Conway [recently appointed counselor to the president].

    Q: Did the president-elect request the meeting or did you?

    A: He called me a week ago to request it.

    Q: Why?

    A: He wants to make sure that we have the best vaccine science and the safest vaccine supply that we can have.

    …Click link to read the rest

    in reply to: Debt Rattle March 30 2023 #132420
    chooch
    Participant

    Here is a link to some nice charts on all sorts of rates compared with measures of inflation. Just trying to make sense of it. First takeaway, No recession until FFR minus CPI is positive. Second takeaway, it looks like January was a good time to start rolling into IG corp. bonds. Just trying to make sense of it. My notions of how it would play out after the GFC were wrong, I begged off trying to make sense of it, but Covid created an outlier in terms of M2 money supply. Besides all the fear mongers are juicing their book.

    https://www.yardeni.com/pub/nomrealyield.pdf

    in reply to: Debt Rattle March 30 2023 #132353
    chooch
    Participant

    To your point oxy, I recently read the checkable deposits for the top 10% are 4 trillion higher then 2019 levels. Let’s say say 4% interest and 35% tax rate. That’s still a lot of money for nothing (and your chicks for free)

    in reply to: Debt Rattle March 29 2023 #132329
    chooch
    Participant

    Mr. House,

    Thanks for the link.

    Michael Lebowitz, from RealInvestmentAdvice is using the US 10yr Tbond minus inflation expectations to compute a real rate. With or without food and energy? Why doesnt he use inflation data straight up? I hate these guys. I doubt Janet is using the ten year.

    in reply to: Debt Rattle March 29 2023 #132327
    chooch
    Participant

    It wasn’t financial stability, She called it finacial sustainability.

    in reply to: Debt Rattle March 29 2023 #132325
    chooch
    Participant

    Yesterday, there was a snippet of an exchange between Yellen and Kennedy. He wanted to know if 51 trillion in debt (109% of GDP) was too much and if not what was.

    Her response went something like this, “The metric for assessing financial stability depends on interests rates, REAL interest rates. REAL Interest rates have been extremely low. This budget and previous budgets have projected that Real rates would move up to more normal levels, but not to the levels we saw several decades ago.” I would guess she was referring to the Volcker years.

    To me it is a curious statement, this reference to real interests rates. Which I gather is some interest rate minus some measure of inflation. Does anyone know which interest rate and which measure of inflation is she is using for her metric?

Viewing 40 posts - 41 through 80 (of 976 total)