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Looks like the image didn’t post, Here is a link to the tweet that was in the last article that Raul linked.
So Big Banks are now parking their excess reserves/cash at Small Banks in a costless bailout funded by the Fed. Remember: Big Banks still have lots of reserves left; Small Banks are reserve constrainedhttps://t.co/wa2jVsCRFJ pic.twitter.com/3B6Wr3ROPj
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 16, 2023
Regarding First Republic, I saw this chart and naturally your eyes are drawn to the bottom right, but what was caused reserves to spike up on 1/20 (both large and small banks) and the jump in reserves for MMF (money market funds?) on the 21st. Just curious.
I went and saw the movie “Jesus Revolution” recently. It was a segment of history I was not familiar with since I was pretty young during that time period. I had been doing some more research into it and came across the writings of Reverend E. L. (Stacey) Hebden Taylor, a professor of Economics and Sociology at Dordt College. Here are some excerpts from the Preface of his book, “Reformation or Revolution.” Copyright 1970.
[..] . And so the great prophet of modern nihilism tells us the madman went into one church after another and intoned his requiem of the death of God. When asked what he was doing, he replied, “What are these churches now, if they are not the tombs of God.” Nietzsche, with the penetration of genius, had fixed upon the great new phenomenon of post-Christian Western society, the gradual fading out of the consciousness of God from the mind of Western man. He has driven Christ out of Christendom and now lives as if God were indeed dead.
What had begun in the second half of the nineteenth century has gone very much further in the twentieth. As a result of this apostasy from God we are faced today with the fateful choice of revolution or reformation. The forces of unbelief have spread out from hotbeds of atheism in Europe to undermine the great AngloSaxon democracies. Our English-speaking nations today stand at the cross roads of their destiny. Our situation is remarkably similar to the conditions and climate of opinion which prevailed in Western Europe during the breakup of medieval Christendom in the “waning of the Middle Ages.” There is the same disrespect for the authority of government, the same breakdown of marriage and family life, the same scepticism and uncertainty regarding the nature and destiny of human life. In the later Middle Ages this movement of thought was called Nominalism or the “Modern Way”; today it is called logical positivism and language analysis. The universities of America, Britain, and Canada have become “multi-versities” in which all values are held to be relative and scientific method alone regarded as the avenue to truth and blessedness.
Our present revolutionary situation is due to the breakdown of a unified field of knowledge and experience. A great symptom of this spiritual crisis now facing us is the growing drug addiction of our young people. Drug addiction is the symptom of the dis illusion of young people with the godless, inhuman, and depersonalized society in which they have had the misfortune to be born. It is an escape from the futility and boredom of modern life and an attempt to find the chemical equivalent of Christian grace and blessedness on the part of people who can no longer find any meaning to their lives. It is a sign of what happens when people live and behave as if God is in truth dead. When love is dead man is dead.
Post-Christian man has created a sterile society in which both God and man are dead. Human life has become meaningless as apostate man finds himself reduced by his own science and technology to a cog in the great machine of nature and of society. The only way of escape lies in a non-rational world of experience, drugs, absurdity, pornography, an elusive “final experience,” and ultimate madness. The one freedom left to modern godless man, according to Michael Foucault in Madness and Civilization, is the freedom to become crazy.
[..] As a result the biblical doctrine of creation became secularized as nature was proclaimed to work like a machine rather than an organism. The divine Creator became the deified image of the creative urge worked in man by his drive for freedom.
[..] By the seventeenth century nature had totally devoured grace, and what was left in its place was man’s striving for freedom. However men soon found that their freedom was being threatened by the deterministic and mechanistic image of the world which their natural science was creating. Freedom was now understood as the reversion of man’s freedom in Christ. The individual’s freedom was no longer seen as dependence upon God and his law but as complete independence and autonomy from God.
As such it soon came into conflict with man’s science ideal, since the latter tended to reduce man to a machine. The fight to retain freedom was carried on by the Romantic movement, beginning with Rousseau and Kant. Romantic literature and art express a casting aside of the industrial and scientific civilization as that which restrains and inhibits man’s freedom. It marked the birth of the Bohemian ideal. Thus by the beginning of the nineteenth century autonomous freedom and autonomous science stood facing each other in deadly combat. Soon science and technology was to swallow up freedom. In terms of the doctrine of the uniformity of natural causes working in a closed system, the mechanistic view of reality came to include not only physics but everything, including man. Apostate scientists such as Laplace, August Comte, Marx, and Lotze insisted on the complete unity of man’s spiritual and physical life, and so freedom disappeared. Neither God nor man’s freedom exist any more for Europe’s most advanced thinkers in the nineteenth century; everything is now placed in the great machine of Nature. Human values such as love and sympathy for the poor of Europe disappeared as an apostate economic individualism reduced the former peasants and guild craftsmen to slaves of the new factory sys tem. No one better reflected this new attitude towards life than the Marquis de Sade. Schaeffer writes of him in Escape from Reason: “He understood the direction that things would have to take when man is included in the machinery. The conclusions he drew were these: if man is determined, than what is is right. If all life is only mechanism—if that is all there is—then morals really do not count. Morals become only a word for a sociological framework. Morals become a means of manipulation by society in the midst of the machine. The word `morals’ by this time is only a semantic connotation word for non-morals. What is, is right.”
[..] in America’s cult of violence on the streets, on her TV and cinema screens, in the death of man in art, music, and life. By making nature independent of God apostate modern man has thus brought upon himself the judgment of God, in so far as he finds that life without God is meaningless, hopeless, and loveless.
On the basis of rationality, logic, and scientific determinism man’s life no longer has any meaning to it. Scientific humanism has cre ated a sterile society in which the individual as a person has been reduced to a statistic in the records of big business and big govern ment. His personality has been stripped from him leaving him to fulfill a function in a depersonalized, militarized, technological mass society as an empty husk of a person. Today millions of people are shirking off their responsibilities as parents, workers, citizens, and consumers, and they have surrendered them into the hands of the leviathan state, of the secular labor unions, political parties, and big business. In short, with the death of God they find themselves also dead if not dying in “The Waste Land” of modern society.
[..] All that is now left for such people to do is to make a nonrational leap of faith into sex, drugs, anything they can think of, because they are now living under the line of apostate humanist despair. They have given up all hope of achieving a rational unified answer to the problems of knowledge and life.
The Christian does not condemn the “hippies” out of hand. He agrees with the hippies’ diagnosis of modern society but rejects their solution. Anyone who can gladly accept society as it has become today is even more to be pitied than the “hippies” themselves. Un fortunately the “hippies” themselves are heading toward the same dead end as the dehumanized society they so vehemently condemn.
Both socialist collectivism and hippie and beatnik individualism are based on the same false premise, namely, that man is the master of his own fate and that man is autonomous. The hippie movement is tragic insofar as it is doomed to failure, but its great value is that it gives us the opportunity while there is yet time for reformation and to look at ourselves and see what has become of our utopian revolutionary dreams of “liberty, equality, and fraternity,” without God. Our faith in science as man’s only savior has brought us to the edge of the abyss. The way of escape does not lie in a nonrational world of “first-order” experiences induced by drugs or by “happenings” but by a return to the true origin of meaning and purpose in human life. Man’s happiness cannot be found in pan theism or in surrender to drugs, but only in the service of God and of one’s neighbor. For the Christian real happiness only comes from obedience to the Great Commandment as summed up by the Lord Jesus Christ.[..] Likewise the Christian will point out to his unregenerate friends that meaning and purpose for modern man can only be found by returning to the biblical view of human nature and destiny, which locates man’s origin in the God who first created and then redeemed him. Only such biblical Christianity can restore dignity and meaning to modern life, because it refuses to divide up human experience between nature and grace, or freedom and nature, or faith and reason. Instead God’s Word provides us with a unified field of human experience and knowledge. God’s Word alone can provide us with the true ordering principle which gives us our frame of reference and only sure point of departure for all our theoretical and practical life. It does so by working in us a true knowledge of God, of ourselves, and of the law-order of the creation. The Word of God is the power by which the Lord God opens our hearts to “see” things as they really are.
Apart from this revealed framework of creation, radical fall into sin, and equally radical redemption by Jesus Christ in the com munion of the Holy Spirit, man’s fallen reason darkened by sin uncovers only a meaningless and irrational chance . 8 God’s Word alone can put meaning into the facts uncovered by scientific investi gation and show us how to use our science to God’s glory and the benefit of human welfare and the improvement of man’s estate. Without this biblical frame of reference, the data provided by scien tific investigation is ultimately meaningless. True knowledge is thus made possible by true religion and arises from the knowing activity of the human heart enlightened through the Word of God by the Holy Spirit. Thus biblical Christianity can play a decisive part in reforming modern life and guide us in the ordering of our everyday experience and scientific activities.
Reformational Christianity can not only provide modern man with a unified field of knowledge for his science, but it can also provide a way out of the false dilemma of individualism versus col lectivism, socialism versus capitalism, racism versus integration, for the Bible alone reveals the true basis for society in a cultural unity in diversity. Man’s personality can develop only in relationship to God and with his neighbor. The common error of both conservative individualism and socialist collectivism is that both take their starting point in man, whether this be the individual or the group. The biblical view of man in society overcomes this dichotomy in social science. In the light of God’s Word we know that God created man for community with his fellow men and as a social being. This means that man does not find his purpose in himself as John Locke supposed, or in the group as Karl Marx supposed, but in the God who created him. The individual and the community are equally called to live in obedience to the laws of their creator.
It is only by such obedience to God’s creation ordinances for human society that the present conflicts rending society apart can be re solved. If the individual and the community will occupy their God given place in a truly Christian society dominated by adventure for God in the context of love and service, their need for drug addiction, civil disobedience and other forms of social deviance will disappear. In such a reformational society young people would once more find a reason to live, and they would not need to take to drugs but they would become busy being “hip” to God’s great laws.
In this book we shall describe how men have tried to make their social life independent of God’s creation norms for their lives and the tragic results of this apostasy. We shall then suggest a reformational, biblically based solution for the grave problems now facing modern society, especially in the field of industrial relations.
[..] May the Lord Jesus Christ, once Carpenter of Nazareth and now risen Lord and Savior of the Holy, Universal, and Apostolic Churches of God throughout the world by the Holy Spirit, bless this work and use it to the glory of God the Father and in bringing back peace, joy, and love to the workers and managers of industry, the husbands and wives and their children, and reconciliation between the classes and races of the world. May Reformation rather than Revolution prevail.
Viruses must attach to specific receptors on the barrier between the outside and the inside of our bodies before they can get in. When the viruses attach to the receptors, they do so by using a spike protein. After the viruses attach using their spike proteins, the cells can pull the viruses in and make more copies. If the copies get released into your blood and lymph and tissue spaces, you are now considered to be infected. The only way to stop this from happening is to prevent the virus from being copied and released at the epithelial barrier. This is done by cells of the innate immune system without involving serum antibodies (the ones in your blood). It can also be done by special mucosal secretory IgA antibodies that result from natural exposure to viruses moving through that epithelial barrier. IgA antibodies are on the outside of you and cannot be produced by injecting something into your body, bypassing the epithelial barrier.
See Figure 1. In following link. Omicron seems out of family when compared with Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta.
“Currently, Omicron variants inefficiently use TMPRSS2, causing the spike to rely on cell entry through endocytosis [44]. This caused a change in the cellular tropism of SARS-CoV-2, moving away from TMPRSS2-expressing cells. However, BA.5 has recently shown efficient use of TMPRSS2, indicating a possible shift back to pre-Omicron tropism and infectious mechanism [45].”
The possible shift back to an earlier tropism reminded me of something Sorotkin had pointed out.
“Until SARS-CoV-2 is understood as a LAV that’s deattenuating towards a highly-pathogenic chimeric coronavirus that’s going through gatekeeping mutations and has no intention whatsoever of following the assumptions drawn from observing natural evolution or even the paths of the H1N1 LAVs which melted back into their original endogenous human hosts – humanity is going to continue to be standing on its head as it attempts to battle this.”
At the end of the day, it was designed to be a bio-weapon, intended to debilitate a nation or area slowly, with plausible deniability, over a decade or two or three.
So did the Chinese release Omicron after they had their country locked down? Seems pretty diabolical, but who is to say?
Still probably wouldn’t hurt to have some IVM, HCQ….. on hand going forward.
Hmmm,
Article over on ZeroHedge has the following headline, “El-Erian Warns About Disinflationista’s “Dangerous Complacency”.
Wonder if a writer from ZH has been hanging out in the TEOTWAWKI fight club comment section.
ram,
“I won’t comment on the ones I knew personally.”
Which ones?
Golf? Lunches? Trap shooting? …seconds? minutes? hours? Days? Months? Years?
Don’t say anything that would endanger your life.
Still unconfirmed, but counterattack south of the salt mine has failed. Also, Russians now have the fire control over that fateful T0513 road (connecting Bakhmut with Siversk), and they do have the fire control over the M03 highway (connecting Bakhmut with Slovyansk).
Photos, of Wagner Boss in salt mine hitting social media.
The last post wasn't that clear. But this, looks a lot like a salt mine. Again with Prigozhin in the middle. pic.twitter.com/Qsm5YqmlOm
— NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) January 10, 2023
Around xmas, Ukraine used a repurposed TU-141 to hit a bomber base in Russia. How is it that a 7 ton steel rocket ship from from the 1970s flew for over a hour across their airspace undetected? Shortly thereafter,All Kalibr missile-carrying ships were withdrawn from the Black Sea.
Satellite, imagery from this summer onward, indicates that Russia has been cannibalizing precision guided missiles from their air defense systems around the country.
Russian Telegram channels have been void of criticism of the Russians forces for awhile. There are new rules in place to discourage that. I was a bit surprised to see this recently. (Topaz had 50k followers)
Anyway, short of Ukraine getting longer range missiles, this artillery centric conflict is likely to grind on for another year. There is an outlier though. Ukraine may have a modern home grown precision guided missile solution. They were 80% to 90% there prior to the war. It has been speculated that prototypes were used to hit Saky airbase and the Kerch bridge last year. Who knows, but something to keep an eye on. Good piece on munition consumption and supply.
Whenever there is chatter about Ukraine receiving longer range precision guided missiles. Russia messaging goes full on nukem.
BTW, total game changer if Ukraine gets them. They could bomb every Russian headquarters, every transport hub or ammunition depot in Crimea. An offensive towards Melitopol that secures the axis of the E105 & M14 along with the rail lines will mean the land bridge to Crimea is cut and the Peninsula is basically a large open air holding area without logistics. If you are general Armageddon, this is what keeps you up at night. This what seems to keep the West up at night.
I thought we were long past the point when Russia could surprise us, but how wrong I was
Denis Maidanov has just released a song honouring the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, known in the West as "Satan II"
And ex-Roscosmos boss Rogozin helped him with the lyrics pic.twitter.com/Uim3ddU3Ak
— Francis Scarr (@francis_scarr) December 17, 2022
Kadyrov acting out some sort of power ranger fantasy.
“Of all the idiots, in all the idiot villages of all the idiot worlds, you stand alone, my friend!…”#KadyrovWarriorPrince pic.twitter.com/kUrnqvy2OO
— olexander scherba🇺🇦 (@olex_scherba) December 15, 2022
Bakhmut stalled, The owner of Wagner PMC opines.
Ever wonder why are they wasting valuable guided missiles to hit civilian targets in Kyiv etc instead of actually helping their own forces not get dead so much and hit Uk rear supply lines and logistics etc etc… Rumors are circulating that Russian borders will be closed to men leaving the motherland, more mobilization and martial law is coming this month.
Prigozhin tells why they can't take Bakhmut. "We storm every house for several days or even weeks, and there are 500+ of them. We don't have the equipment and even hundreds of shells won't make us move faster."
— NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) January 3, 2023
With this overwhelming advantage, why are they whining about a Patriot missile battery, 8 launchers/4 missiles per. They should be able to own the air and crush Bakhmut in days.
Here u go, since y'all just wanna lie about everything, including what's obvious pic.twitter.com/Wlod3A1ADH
— silence is a betrayal right now🇳🇬🇳🇬 (@josh_savage03) December 24, 2022
My curiosity was triggered due to some recent experiences/observations and as a result I have been reviewing some old notes.
“Early on it was reported that “a superantigen-like motif akin to staphylococcal enterotoxin B (SEB) was discovered near the S1/S2 cleavage site of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, which might explain the MIS in children and cytokine storm in patients with severe COVID-19.”
The Ethical Skeptic once commented that Omicron is like a loaded gun with the safety on. Not sure where I pinched the following, could have been from the Skeptic but not sure.
“If you were to design a pathogen, it would make sense to include a lethal element (SEB) and an immunosuppressive element (HIV). It is a little curious that this SEB part of the spike protein seems to be attenuated or, even, “turned off” in the Omicron variant. Of the many mutations in omicron the most
interesting two are in the SEB domain. While staphylococcal enterotoxin B (SEB) is associated with food poisoning, it has been studied for potential utilization as an inhaled biological weapon.”I came across this the other day. Just something to keep an eye on. Monday night fever, Tuesday morning breathing issues, Tuesday afternoon dead.
Somebody suggested the following timeline
-2018, a virus is made in a wuhan lab, where it gets into the world. It gets ignored, and respiratory deaths are blamed on a “mystery virus” in local papers, and everything else under the sun.
-Hospitals quietly changed the protocol to stop administering Azithromycin for pneumonia, even though that was standard.
-Suddenly, out of nowhere, videos start coming out of China of relatively healthy looking people falling down and fish flopping all over the ground.
-Ventilators are pushed
-meds are withheld
-OTC and vitamin data is suppressed
-Doctors are banned from social media, licenses revoked.
-Death count rises.
-pandemic
-Vaccine.Recent video from Chris Martenson
Because of zero Covid, is China’s population dry tinder for the next wave of respiratory bugs? Did their vax negatively impact immunity? Will Omicron all of a sudden become deadly? Will they be in the streets demanding mRNA by February?
[..] On Friday, China confirmed in a press briefing that it would let German nationals receive the BioNTech COVID vaccine, which uses mRNA technology, in exchange for German health authorities on Wednesday approving China’s Sinovac jab for Chinese nationals living in Germany.
[..] Several Chinese companies are developing mRNA vaccines, but none have made it to final approval. In September, Indonesia—not China—became the first country to approve a Chinese-developed mRNA vaccine, from pharmaceutical company Walvax.
https://fortune.com/2022/12/12/china-approves-biontech-pfizer-mrna-covid-vaccine-restrictions/amp/
[..] Why will Covid spread so quickly? China’s population has low immunity to the virus. Due to Beijing’s Covid clampdown, many people haven’t been infected at all. And the government has refused to import effective mRNA vaccines from Western countries, instead relying on domestic jabs. The country’s elderly are especially susceptible: One-third of citizens 60 and over haven’t gotten a third, Omicron-specific shot.
https://www.morningbrew.com/daily/stories/2022/12/12/china-covid
[..] So the question we have: Why did Beijing ease zero Covid policies when no preparations have been made to meet the coming winter ‘tsunami’ of infections?
China’s coming COVID tsunami?
https://thechinaproject.com/2022/12/08/chinas-coming-covid-tsunami/amp/
Holy hell, It looks like Turkey may have provided Ukraine longer range rockets.
https://twitter.com/John_A_Ridge/status/1601761106825211905?s=20&t=_KMI0k8FPLhkQcHXLVyt6g
155mm shells delivered to Ukraine jumped up by 80,000 over the past two weeks – that’s the highest monthly rate since the war began.
https://media.defense.gov/2022/Nov/23/2003120409/-1/-1/1/UKRAINE%20FACT%20SHEET%2020221123.PDF
Dr. D,
Several days ago, you commented, “If Europe falls where will all the cash flow to? That’s right to Jamie Dimon and Powell’s higher interest rates.”
Today you expanded on this line of reason, and I truly appreciated your commentary. After 2008, I could just never see how the math might close and we were long overdue for a jubilee.
You have probably come across some version of this anecdote somewhere in the past but in case you haven’t I will attempt to explain it. Let’s simply say there are three wealthy individuals that show up to a conference. Through their business dealings, they have debts that are owed to one another. Let’s say Bob owes Jim $100 million, and Jim owes Mary $100 million and Mary owes Bob $100 million. Another super rich guy shows up to the conference with $100 million cash in his suitcase. Bob gets wind of this and sneaks into the guy’s hotel room and pinches the $100 million suitcase. He settles his debt with Jim, who then settles his debt to Mary, and she settles her debt with Bob. Now Bob was just trying to get out of debt to Jim by using someone else’s money and was not expecting to leave the conference out of debt to Jim and $100 million wealthier so he figures the right thing to do would be to sneak the $100 million suitcase back into the rich guy’s room. He was able to sneak back in, but the rich guy was there. Bob decides he will leave the suitcase and bolt. As he slowly lowers the suitcase to the ground, the rich guy says, “fugetaboutit”.
As I understand it, there is this large network of trade that is built on US dollarized transactions. Dollars get added to the system largely via credit creation. This doesn’t create all the interest that is required in the future, so in the limit somebody is going to come up short. When I look at how much public debt we owe I find that a lot of it is owed to the government (ourselves). So, can we really default on ourselves? Which I would concur, as you do, is not likely.
I realize we view the war in Ukraine through a very different set of beer goggles but preserving this network of dollar denominated trade probably has more to do with how the US is managing the conflict than anything.
If Elon musk were Chinese, he would be Jack Ma’ed and if he were Russian, he would be wise to be careful around windows.
Anyway, I am very curious about your continued commentary on our move to digital coin money and how you plan to navigate/surf it.
Thanks
Who is they?
Seems likely BioNTech is the logical “they”. Then there is the why, power, greed, depopulation…
Sometimes it seems to me China is playing both the US and Russia.
Then I read something like this and it seems China is about to be played too.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-01690-3
“In 2021, BioNTech announced it would open its Asia headquarters in Singapore, and also open a vaccine manufacturing plant there, with support from the Singapore Economic Development Board. The Singapore factory is expected to be operational by 2023 and produce hundreds of millions of doses of mRNA vaccines per year. A collaboration with Fosun Pharma is planned to add a facility in China to produce a billion doses per year for China, Macau, Hong Kong, and Taiwan, though as of August 2021, the PRC had not approved any foreign-developed COVID-19 vaccines.” (Source Wikipedia)
Air raid sirens all clear, practice flights.
Seems to be some debate in high circles in regards to infrastructure attacks.
Disarray. Confusion. Even hints of fear and desperation. This is not going according to plan… pic.twitter.com/JursfxOca8
— Carl Bildt (@carlbildt) November 29, 2022
Air alert declared almost throughout Ukraine.
GO TO SHELTERS! https://t.co/pGCP9542Rw pic.twitter.com/4inrqiC7cr
— NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) November 29, 2022
Knockout Blow?
Ukraine has large underground gas facilities in the West.
🇷🇺ENGELS AIR BASE
0.5M📸 from Nov 28 morning. Looks like the TU-95s and TU-160s are getting their fair share of bombs loaded up. Adhere to the air raid sirens tonight.@IntercityFC @Jenjustjen20 @TheLimpCrane @FouthTimeLucky @tillykium pic.twitter.com/qZ06Pen7ac— MT Anderson (@MT_Anderson) November 28, 2022
Considerably more missiles expected. Belarus too?
BREAKING: RU expected to launch massive attack on Ukraine within 24 hours. Including 200+ missiles. Land, sea and air involved. RU will possibly attempt attack thru BELARUS, and sustained fighting in BAKHMUT. @MriyaReport @ChuckPfarrer @ukraine_map @MalcolmNance @RipRawlings pic.twitter.com/w68HoUJ1Y6
— Yehuda Amzallagh (@YAmzallagh) November 29, 2022
Stew Peters (Died Suddenly, Watch the Water..) could be a counter intelligence asset whose purpose is to marginalize those advocating informed consent.
Or simply tapping in to the far right for his 15 minutes of fame as a sort of slightly less unhinged version of Alex Jones.
Anyway, zero background in news…then boom, studio production show?
Irrespective, the TAE site / comment section, became the go to site for me during Covid. Links and info provided by Raul, Germ, Doc Day, Doc Robinson and others became foundational in framing my conversations with family, friends and coworkers. It was also, very useful in my battle with my employer over the mandates and masking, for which I am most grateful.
Noirette,
You might find this discussion of interest.
Also, I think I got the gist of this one even though I don’t speak French.
Redneck,
Came across the following channel on YouTube. An Aussie to boot. It’s pretty good, but each segment is an hour+. Her is a link to the latest.
About Perun
An Australian covering the military industrial complex and national military investment strategy.Since the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, I’ve been covering lessons from the conflict and how they may inform the future investment decisions that other nations may or should make.
Given Musk’s previous banter with Medvedev being construed as friendly and the war mongers losing their shit when he proposed a framework for ending hostilities earning him the Moscow Musk label. Combine that with the recent “church lady” messaging on Russian state TV, I am inclined to think that Musk was having fun with it in going with the devils champion get up.
In his twitter photo, Elon Musk appears to be wearing what kinda looks like a Tony Stark/Iron Man get up. But on further investigation, the custom he is wearing is called the Devil’s Champion, the red leather armor features several Baphomet heads with inverted crosses.
Wes,
It’s not 100 and it’s not zero. There are sites that track these things, they rarely tie up with each other but 25% seems to be in ballpark. The Iranian missiles are bad boys, designed to whack Jews. They have pretty good air defense systems. The takeaway is that if Russia uses them, what will be the response. Crimea is pretty vulnerable in the moment. It’s just a pathway to escalation, that’s all.
Roughly 100 missiles launched a quarter hit their target. It’s estimated that 10 million Ukrainians are without power. It has been reported that Russia will be receiving/ have received these from Iran. They are more precise and more difficult to take out with the air defense systems they currently have.
Iranian Video Shows IRGC Military Exercise as a Simulation of Combined Missile and Drone Attack on Israel’s “WMD Development Center” #Iran #Israel #Dimona #JCPOA pic.twitter.com/RUpmfbAgGc
— MEMRI (@MEMRIReports) December 26, 2021
This bit of info surfaced about a week ago.
Iranian drone used by Russia:
* Made in February 2022
* 76 of parts sourced to US, from 14 American companiesVia @ABC pic.twitter.com/PJElBKxm6l
— Borzou Daragahi 🖊🗒 (@borzou) November 8, 2022
Today, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Sunday announced the US will sanction a transnational network that’s been illicitly supplying Russia with military technology to support its war in Ukraine.
She identified that 14 individuals and 28 entities will fall under the sanctions, following widespread allegations particularly against Iran and North Korea. In the former case, advanced Iranian-manufactured suicide drones have been observed used with greater frequency by Russian forces on the Ukraine battlefield. Tehran has since admitted to selling Moscow drones; however, Iranian officials have claimed this was done before the invasion and the deal had nothing to do with the Ukraine conflict. (source: zerohedge)
Many western companies are knotted up with Russia’s military supply chain, particularly Germany.
Russia is suddenly realizing that they depend completely on Western technologies.
"If we nationalize everything, we'll have nothing to drive, nothing to make calls with…"
Did you want to kill people and at the same time use Western technologies and vacation in Europe? pic.twitter.com/7NJnuHmUz3
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) November 16, 2022
Solovyov (2008)
Fascinating video: chief Kremlin propagandist Vladimir Solovyov explains to a 2008 Moscow theatre audience why war between Russia and Ukraine would be the greatest crime imaginable pic.twitter.com/15HngdYhs9
— Business Ukraine mag (@Biz_Ukraine_Mag) October 12, 2022
Solovyov partying with Ze (2013)
This is one of the wildest clips ten years out https://t.co/EWGjUSclaL
— Nuno Felix (@Felix_Nuno) November 1, 2022
Solovyov (This morning)
Tensions rise as Solovyev starts his morning with a rant, demanding a response to the strikes at the Belgorod People's Republic. He demands conscripts to be used to move away Ukrainians from the border and suggests demolishing Ukrainian cities for repeated attacks. pic.twitter.com/Ka6iNy6oyf
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) November 15, 2022
Discontent on the battlefield
Russian reporter and fighter Vladlen Tatarsky is very mad about Zelensky visiting Kherson. According to him, they are spilling their blood for nothing, meanwhile, the Russian government is taking half-measures. Similar sentiment was seen across all Russian channels today. pic.twitter.com/0nErv82sfy
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) November 14, 2022
Discontent at home
The loss of Kherson has unleashed levels of discontent on 🇷🇺 state TV that I'm yet to see in the war
Maxim Yusin says Ukraine is laughing at his country, and that Russia only has itself to blame
He derides the TV pundits who claim Russia will reach the Polish border as "clowns" pic.twitter.com/cjrvUrR8SJ
— Francis Scarr (@francis_scarr) November 15, 2022
Contrast to 8 months ago. State TV propaganda entertains, confuses and overwhelms the audience.
I've been going through some of my TV notes from the start of the war and rediscovered some real gems
This (from March) is pundit Alexei Mukhin proudly declaring that Russia is waging a "war of the future" which will be held up by other countries as an example for years to come pic.twitter.com/ihg5jL0GBI
— Francis Scarr (@francis_scarr) November 14, 2022
anticlimactic,
These guys aren’t ready for winter. Recently mobilized troops lack training and equipment. There’s been many signs of the poor condition of mobilized troops.
Alexander Sladkov says that thousands of mobilized men in Budyonnovsk don’t have weapons even though they were mobilized awhile ago. He says that Russian soldiers are still using boots and armor taken from the bodies of Ukrainian soldiers.
Nothing is more disastrous than poorly trained men on a winter battlefield. Winter nights in Ukraine are long and sadly these guys will look like light bulbs to anyone wearing night vision equipment.
Recently liberated town.
📷Russian forces reportedly managed to enter and capture the small settlement of Mayorsk in #Donetsk Oblast.#UkraineRussiaWar pic.twitter.com/paCyoX3aS1
— MilitaryLand.net (@Militarylandnet) November 14, 2022
Another example. Every man for himself.
I would guess, the men and equipment maneuvered out of Kherson are being sent northeast. Also, giving the current situation Ukraine could blitz from Melitopol to Berdyansk and cut off all the supply routes to the Russian military. This leaves Crimea thinly defended, but all the water crossings are blown.
Mobilised of the 2nd Commandant Company of 362nd Motorised Rifle Regiment from Lipetsk were abandoned by the command on the frontline at Svatove. This call with one of the survivors describes how from the regiment, 2500 have already perished. pic.twitter.com/wt0UsHitat
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) November 14, 2022
More on #Russia using "barrier troops" (soldiers who form ranks behind the other soldiers to shoot anyone who retreats). https://t.co/1qoiaGUbLm
— Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) November 15, 2022
Alexander Carpenter,
Definitely one of the puzzles that I shy away from. Too many initial/boundary conditions. Then if you build a model, how good does the data need to be to benchmark it? And to ultimately validate it, do you have to back test all the way back to the big bang moment?
Noirette,
Geopolitical forecasting is not one of the puzzles that I wish to tackle. But as I read up on the progress of the conflict in the Ukraine I come across comments related to Germany and its role. I tend to focus on the German ties to the Russian military supply chain and how it might impact things going forward.
It seems the Euro may be/has become the deutsche mark by another name. Today I came this
https://twitter.com/AMFChina/status/1591499096229122049?s=20&t=0kL8GDSry-IOGfN5PXe4fw
Velina Tchakarova pops into the feeds that I frequent, she had this response.European powers will be confronted with either/or choice amid growing bifurcation of the global system. If Germany sides with China, there will be growing fragmentation within the EU members based on their approach to the #DragonBear, which will lead to bifurcation of Europe too. https://t.co/7md5lwroEx
— Velina Tchakarova (@vtchakarova) November 13, 2022
This seems to be in her area of interest. As of late, She has been posting the following graphic quite often.Who is the more important trading partner: China (red) or USA (blue)? The bifurcation of the global system is becoming more apparent. #geopolitics #geoeconomics https://t.co/moXPLLbGCy
— Velina Tchakarova (@vtchakarova) November 13, 2022
Press conference the other day, It’s Biden so grain of salt. But 160 mile range is 3x what they have been receiving. This brings nearly all of Crimea within range of Kherson.
Ukraine has already received ATACMS…
…according to this recent interview. @Kartinamaslom5 shows here that @POTUS states that 1000km missiles weren’t given (PrSM) but 300km missiles were (ATACMS). pic.twitter.com/dbawPflKQC
— CJ (@CasualArtyFan) November 10, 2022
With Ukraine capturing the city of Kherson and pushing Russian forces to the opposite side of the Dnipro, we can show potential ranges for the M142 HIMARS multiple launch rocket system in the area: the current M31 GMLRS, and possible ranges for ATACMS rockets. H/t @vcdgf555 pic.twitter.com/W8ETNDAhMt
— Amelia Smith (@ameliairheart) November 12, 2022
The other day I ran into some Space Force cadets and struck up a conversation about Elon. They were aware of the fluff up surrounding the twitter purchase and SpaceX efforts to get the reimbursement for StarLink, but unaware its impact on the battlefield and the fact that the Russians would like to take those satellites out which would seem to be in the Space Force wheelhouse. Anyway, I suggested some things to be curious about and went on my way.
It is estimated that Ukraine has a drone team for every combat team typically spaced 5 km apart. A Russian mortar team, 15 miles out, has 2 minutes to shoot and scoot in this kind of drone rich environment. Then if there is a HIMARS in the area, holy hell, 2.5 Mach on the deck and very destructive. This is scalable (more men, more drones, more HIMARS and longer range missiles all networked to effectively manage combat maneuvers) to the point that Russia will lose this conflict unless they come up with a countermeasure this winter.
1/ QUICK THREAD: Russia's MK published opinions of several Russian bloggers on the need for different types of drones in the war. Main points below: https://t.co/Xm9TqFCTTw pic.twitter.com/HrdIK1Mq5J
— Samuel Bendett (@SamBendett) November 6, 2022
