Glennjeff
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Annual Human Deaths Worldwide circa 60 million
Annual Human Births Worldwide circa 140 millionAnnual Human Growth Worldwide 80 million
COVID Deaths worldwide in the last year – 1.3 million. A tiny blip in the statistics.
Most of those were older folk with pre-existing debilitating illness and would be added to the death statistics in the not too distant future.
COVID, what a great scam.@John Day, V Arnold, et al.
Are you familiar with Rupert Sheldrake’s “The New Science of Life”.
This may be a disturbance in “The Morphogenetic Field”,
not to be viewed as a discrete materialistic manifestation of “virus”,
more a quantum physics field / probabilistic phenomena.John Hopkins just put the logarithmic graph back up.
Now that we are really testing infection rates look a whole lot worse.
Spread is rapid, doubling every 2.5 days as a global average.Note:
From what we have measured so far;
Mortality is approx (30 * 100) / (30 + 140) % = 17 %
I was expecting this number to come down towards a 1% asymptote.
Better detection should have reduced mortality rate, it has not budged for months!“Up shit creek without a paddle” was a phrase my father used back in the day.
I have applied to do an 8 week Dzochen online meditation retreat;
watch the guru give instructions online,
meditate all day in my closet,
email questions to guru,
rinse and repeat for 56 days.Turn lock-down into a positive step in my life.
That graph of new cases fits an exponential very neatly;
I = 2^nI = Infections
^ = raised to power of
n = (Days/6) doubling every 6 days.If you had a cent on the first day of the month, 2 cents on the second day, 4 cents on the third day, 8 cents ……. etc (Doubling every day), you would have 10 million dollars after one month.
Japan: 20th Feb 94 cases === 20th March 3200 Cases===20 April 70,000 cases.
They are probably not too bothered by counting at this stage.
Went to the Pharmacy (Chemist) to stock up on useful meds this morning. This is the conversation.
Glennjeff: Could you fill these scipts for me.
Pharmacist Chan: I cannot supplies some of these, do you have enough to get by.
Glennjeff: Oh yes, just stocking up in case the supply chains break down.
Pharmacist Chan: They already are.
(Australia)Apologies: The first paragraph contains a very bad assumption. There was 1 “known” case in Hubei Dec 1, given that person may have been asymptomatic but infectious for up to two weeks then the conclusion of paragraph 1 is totally erroneous.
(How does one edit posts here?)
Running basic math with parameters derived from South East Asia excluding China it appears:
With 2 people being infected on day 1, Dec 1st 2019 at a propagation rate of 15% per day we would have about 45,000 infections today.
It seems against all odds that reported numbers are NOT being fudged in China.It appears that infection rates have changed from exponential to linear in China.
This is an indication that the worst may be over for China.Population Susceptibility approx 6%.
The predictions by a Hong Kong epidemiologist of 40% – 60% global infection rates appears to be extreme hyperbole at the moment.
Watching The Diamond Princess for “ball park” estimate.Have drawn graph of [Fatalities / (Fatalities + Recovered)] for Hubei, too early to get a good curve of fit to where the hyperbola will converge on asymptote, BUT Mortality Rate is approx 15%
At the moment there is no indication that it has “gone wild” outside of South-East Asia.
USA, Canada, UK, Australia, France and Germany numbers are fairly stable although this needs to hold for a couple more weeks to be more certain.VA
Too early to draw conclusions. I think the last 2 paragraphs are an absolute worst case scenario. I’ll watch the numbers and update if I come up with any conclusions from the math, even though that may still be “utterly useless”. I’m a bit of a prepper and intend to go on a long photography trip into the middle of nowhere in my camper-van if the numbers get bad.I suspect it will not get much of a hold outside of cool wet countries populated by mostly Asian peoples.
Chinas productivity going offline is the main global issue at the moment.
It was just a thought exercise really. Dropped it here as this is the only blog in the world that I have a commenting account for.
All the best.
As we know, pretty much for sure, that China is fudging the nCoV-2019 numbers I decided to do the math excluding most of China.
All others cases excluding China but including Hong Kong
Date Conf Ratio Deaths Recovered
21/1 7
22/1 11 1.57
23/1 17 1.54 Small sample outliers. Ignore in AVG
24/1 24 1.41
………………………………………………………………
25/1 27 1.12
26/1 36 1.33 3
27/1 42 {44} 1.16
28/1 44 {55} 1.05 {1.25} 6
29/1 58 {56} 1.32 {1.02}
30/1 74 {68} 1.28 {1.21}
31/1 92 {81} 1.24 {1.19}
1/2 109 {95} 1.18 {1.17} 9
2/2 118 {110} 1.08 {1.16} 1
3/2 120 {128) 1.10 {1.16}
4/2 140 {149} 1.16 {1.16} 2
5/2 154 {173} 1.10 {1.16)
6/2 162 {201} 1.06 {1.16} 10
7/2 173 (234) 1.07 {1.16} 13
8/2 198 (259) 1.14 {1.11} 22
9/2 205 (269) 1.04 (1.04) 25
10/2 227 (362) 1.11 (1.35) 281.12 AV = 12% increase per day. 1.16 AV = 16% per day with Diamond Princess.
{…} With Diamond Princess backward estimates of confirmed cases.
(…) With Diamond Princess ConfirmedTake a smaller subset Thailand/Japan/South Korea:
January
21 3
22 5 1.67
23 6 1.2 Small Sample outliers. Ignore in AVG
24 9 1.5
………………….
25 11 1.22
26 15 1.36
27 16 1.07
28 25 1.56
29 29 1.16
30 29 1.0
31 45 1.55
February
1 48 1.07
2 54 1.12
3 54 1.0
4 63 1.17
5 83 1.32
6 83 1.0
7 86 1.04
8 82 0.95
9 85 1.04
10 85 1.015% Increase in infections per day.
15 percent per day is doubling about every 5 days which is consistent with early observations.
That is 64 times the infections every month.SARS was identified Nov 2002 Peaked in Late April 2003 and changed from exponential to linear progression at that time.
SARS stopped increasing in Late May 2003 and began to fade from memory. A 6 months active pandemic corona-virus duration.We could be in a spot of bother, no Olympics 2020.
At the moment (11th Feb 2020 China Time / A.W.S.T time) The Diamond Princess suggests that about 6% of any population is susceptible to infection.
Thus an estimate for total global susceptibility could be 420 million.Lets play with Math with Daily ratio increase 1.15 from 1 February when Total (Including China) was approx stated at 15,000.
There could be;
100,000 infected by 15th of Feb
500,000 by 27th Feb.
1 million by 3rd March.
10 million by 19th March.
100 million by 4th April.
420 million by 24th April.Let’s hope that arithmetic is one of those pseudo-science things that has no basis in reality.
Condolences Illargi, all the best for you in the future.
The wheels come off a bit after ones mother passes over, time!Correct Ilargi
Pentagram = 10 raised to the fifteenth power.
It’s also a five pointed star that you draw in the air with a large steel sword. I wasn’t going to mention it but such magical practices are ill advised under this current Grand Cross 🙂
There is an astrological storm front moving through this world in April, reaching a climax in the third week of April.
Technically it is called a Mars Jupiter Pluto Uranus Grand Cross.
It is the most stress and strain riddled astrological significator that I have observed.It is rather unlikely that it will not coincide with many manifestations in the human realm of experience.
General indicators 1:
Dangers in foreign countries, dangers from foreign wars.
Power struggles involving political and military matters.
Attempts to dominate or control others backfire.Specifically:
Given the temporal proximity to the Ukraine clusterfunk, rapid escalation would seem reasonable.General Indicators 2:
Unstable get rich quick schemes blow up.
Unexpected financial loss in joint finances and corporate business.
Conflicts in the financial affairs of groups and orgasnisations.Specifically:
Given that a wave of defaults in the Chinese financial system is expected in the next couple of months, and given the generally unstable condition of the global fiat ponzi, it would seem probable that a major world financial event could occur in April
General Indicators 3:
The desire to overthrow existing power structures, coupled with the tendancy to rash and impulsive actions and outbursts of temper could lead to violent mobs and crowds, even revolution.General Indicators 4:
Natural Disasters.General Indicators 5:
Seperations and breakdowns in relations.The astute observer may note that most of this has already begun:)
Spidey Senses – Hmmm. I’m feeling really nervous. Have been waiting for a long time to feel justified in putting in a big Nickel Iron battery bank and some inverters to go with our 3kW solar / 1 kW wind – on the grid setup. I bought the inverters and ordered the batteries this week. Have been busy wiring / rewiring the house and workshop for the changeover.
All the best.
Seconding V81’s comment, This was an informative and fast collection of current topics and the format is enjoyable. I save Nicole’s wonderful book length analyses for the occasional day when I can still concentrate 🙂
What V81 said is worth considering unless your locked in with expensive platform dependant software (Like I am with PC). Linux distributions like Ubuntu work very well and have most common tools like spread sheets, word processors, photo editors, disk burners, torrent clients and heaps more all included in the system which is pretty much free. (Just in case you are not aware of it.)
Hey V81,
It’s a trivial exercise to remove ALL wheat from ones diet when you suspect that it is going to make you very ill. (nudge, nudge)Hi Nicole & Folks,
Not actually off topic. Steve at Economic Undertow frequently posts a chart showing “The Monthly Price Of Crude” with two arbitrarily straight line constraints drawn on it, “The Cost Of Production” and “The Affordable Price”. See here: https://www.economic-undertow.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/Triangle-of-Doom-1103131.png
Thought it would be interesting to determine when those two constraints intersect.
Turns out to be APRIL 2015.
That’s about when creative accounting will fail completely.
That is of course if the fuel pool at Fuki 4 remains “stable”.Enjoy life one day at a time, however which way, because tomorrow never comes.
All the best.
Really enjoyed the Young Neil clip. He moves the bass around very nicely on that guitar.
Oh! Gold is at $1250 and not tracking the price of petrol (deflating against it) at all well, but a realistic price. Think I mentioned something about that number in a crazy rant on the original TAE blog comments. No sudden left hand turns this time. (Just testing your memory and attention to detail)
Hope this simplified format works better for you n all.
Sid,
I’ll put something together in the way of photos, vids and walkthroughs. It will take a few months as we are at the end of our extreme hot summer when everything (except the trees) are exhasted. I’ll document our Autumn planting and drop it here in a few.
That was a really usefull, practical post gurusid. Thankyou.
My wife and I have been working on our eighth acre inner city farm for nearly 20 years. We sarted out getting virtually no produce and killing most plants. In the last couple of years we have had extended periods of having to give food away to neighbours and freinds.
We are very pleased with ourselves now that we can often say “Everthing in this meal was grown in our backyard”
Our best producers are;
Fish, eggs, tomatoes, corn, brocolli, cauliflower, cabbage, carrot, pasnip, capsicum, chilli, silverbeet, spinach, pasley, sage, rosemary, thyme, oregano, lemon, lime, mandarin, tangello, apple, plum, pear, chinese greens, cucumbers, zuchini, mulberry, mango, canteloupe, pumpkin, onion, beetroot, radish.
They taste so much better than industrial produce also.
The resullts of democratic votes in Greece and Italy are clearly showing movement in an antiestablishment / antiausterity direction.
The collectivist beaurocrats may be using Cyprus as an example of what will happen if the general electorate attempts widespread rejection of central management.
As always, just a thought.
Austerity is not an avoidable outcome given resource depletion, still folks do like to live in denial. Giving every buffoon the right to vote was always a flawed idea anyway, how can democracy possibly function when the vast majority of folks don’t have a clue. On the other end of the big slapping stick, people who stand up and say my plan is the correct one, follow me, have a good probability of being psychopath variants.
Outcome remains assured, collapse and die off. Only the derivative is uncertain.
Have a nice day:)
Maybe add the simple item “This Weeks Discussion” to the main menu (Front Page, Finance, Energy, Earth ……..). Place usually goes pretty quiet on weekends so have it automatically store previous discussion and start a new one on Sunday (or whatever). Maybe even try remove comment section for specific articles to coax discussion into one place. Just a thought.
jal,
I’ll let you know in 365 days if the “another year of life part held true”
Best of Luck to all is as far as I’ll push it, and “Appreciate every moment possible” is how I would phrase it.
Seasons regards.
Nassim,
Daily Reckoning certainly come up with some weird stuff at times, some of it is definitely in the pump n dump category. I subscibed to their newsletter and got mostly spam really. Today I was thinking that it was damaging disinformation. Humanities lost paradigm, clutching at straws in desperation as it plunges into the yawning chasm. Must remember not to feed the goblins.
Just logged in to say hi really and that, as the world ended yesterday, I’m quite amazed at how similar this limbo we are living in now is to the previous dimension.
Merry Christmas, but not too merry, to all.
Looking on the bright side p01, you were able to share your concerns with 30+ people by just pushing a button or two. A link to the full story might have been good.
That sounds about right Martin.
In some ways melting down N-power plants are much nastier than N-bombs. Perhaps these pages from the old TAE blog could be useful
https://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com.au/2011/03/march-15-2011-fukushima-fallout-files.html
https://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com.au/2011/03/march-13-2011-how-black-is-japanese.html
If IT crashes t’will be most fugly.
Dimitry Orlov weighs in on this:
https://cluborlov.blogspot.com.au/2012/07/peak-oil-oppositional-disorder-neurosis.html#more
Well that was refreshing, made me laugh. Put more of that material into your routine, it’s much better than the prefab adolescent toilet humour.
Seriously though, I know you want to get last word in, matches your personality type perfectly, everyone here knows the quality of your character, you made it perfecly clear with hateful profane invective. I achieved my goal.
Now I give you permission to make the last comment, have the last say that is the divine right of all great leaders of humanity appointed by God.
Oh, and why would I waste my time with an ad hominim, simple, you are an arsehole that refuses reasonable feedback, which was what Ash provided RE.
That is the reason that so many blogs have given you the boot.
By the way, Ultra high IQ, diverse high distinction education, multi talented, wealthy and a successful long term marriage.
I acknowlege your troll accusations, I am the troll of TAE, and I like to catch a nice fish every now and then.
Say goodnight sweetheart.
RE,
If you carefully deconstruct my sentence structure you may realise that i did not call anyone a drunk. I actually stated that arguing with a religious fanatic is less productive than arguing with a drunk.
I also do not believe that Ash would take offense at my commentary.
How childish is “You spoke to me and then you spoke to him, therefore you insulted him”, Get a grip RE.
Amongst other things, smileys indicate a good natured / playfull approach to communicating.
A quote from a neo-religious text “A Course in Miracles”
“If you want peace, teach peace to learn it”Ash,
You appear to be arguing with a religious fanattic, less productive than arguing with a drunk, and all this time I doubted you for being hyper-rational. My Bad. 🙂
Stoneleigh, Illargi, Greenpa and Snuffy…..awesome. You were missed a little folks.
RE, that was an algo panic was it not?
