Scott in Los Angeles

 
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  • in reply to: No Debt Rattle today #129876

    The intense fatigue is your immune system kicking into overdrive to fight a virus that it already knows. My theory is that you went somewhere on Thursday. Somehow on Thursday you go hit with a load of SARS-CoV-2. But it was a variant to which you have already been exposed. That would explain the fatigue without other symptoms. If it were XBB.1.5, and if you had not already been exposed to it, you would have a runny nose and a brutal sore throat. You’ll be fine tomorrow.

    in reply to: Debt Rattle March 27 2020 #56124

    Hi Ilargi,

    I can tell you from Los Angeles that COVID-19 numbers published by the public health departments of Los Angeles County and Orange County are ridiculous.

    I have been sitting at home this week recovering from COVID-19. I will be ready for work on Monday. I have the tell-tale signs of COVID-19. The illness comes in three stages. The first stage is an annoying head cold or diarrhea. The person gets over that and feels better. At day five the fever and body aches appear. At day nine the virus starts attacking the lungs. I am fine. My lungs are fine. I have no problems. I am fifty-one years old and in perfect health. However, I can tell you that while laying down with a fever I had the feeling that I was holding a tiger by the tail. It was clear to me that if my immune system lost containment of the virus, I would be in big trouble.

    Today the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health’s Web Site posts that there are 1300 cases and 22 deaths. The deaths number is probably accurate, but the cases number is ridiculous. This virus is everywhere. There are twelve million people in Los Angeles County and Orange County. I would be surprised if less than a million people in Los Angles County and Orange County have the virus. I have no data to back up my wild-ass guess. The bottom line of my estimate is that the infection rate is orders of magnitude greater than the publicly published numbers and that the hospitalization rate and death rate are far lower than the publicly published numbers. My wild-ass guess is that when we finally crunch the numbers we will find out that the death rate will be under 0.1% and that the rate of infected people requiring medical attention of any sort will be under 1%.

    I am not suggesting that the lockdown is overkill. I am not suggesting that the virus is not a killer for those who cannot handle it. I am just suggesting that the virus is far more widespread than the public health agencies are acknowledging and that for the vast majority of people the illness is far less dramatic than news reports would suggest.

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