Botticelli The Calumny of Apelles 1495
Ritter nukes
My latest 2 minute topic: pic.twitter.com/hYjlznMcNZ
— Scott Ritter (@RealScottRitter) July 15, 2023
Macgregor
JUST IN: Retired Colonel Douglas Macgregor takes a blow torch too Lindsay Graham — He does what his billionaire donors tell him to — Likens Mark Zuckerberg and Bill Gates to western oligarchs.. pic.twitter.com/SsIGs5CEfh
— Chuck Callesto (@ChuckCallesto) July 16, 2023
Byron Donalds
JUST IN: Emails emerge that BACK UP the FBI confidential source who said Joe and Hunter Biden each took $5 million to get rid of the prosecutor looking into Burisma..
— Chuck Callesto (@ChuckCallesto) July 15, 2023
RFK DTP
Bill Gates ask the Danish government to support DTP vaccination of 161 million African children…
Gates claimed it was saving 30 million lives, so the Danish government asked for the data, of which Gates had none…
So they went to Africa and looked at 30 years of DTP data. What… pic.twitter.com/PHg2GWvKBu
— Pelham (@Resist_05) July 16, 2023
“..the message Nato has sent Moscow is that Russia made exactly the right decision to invade – if the goal, as Putin has always maintained, is to ensure Kyiv remains neutral.”
• NATO Isn’t Defending Ukraine. It’s Stabbing It In The Back (Cook)
The Nato summit in Lithuania this week served only to underscore the utter hypocrisy of western leaders in pursuing their proxy war in Ukraine to “weaken” Russia and oust its president, Vladimir Putin. Both the US and Germany had made clear before the summit that they would block Ukraine’s admission to Nato while it was in the midst of a war with Russia. That message was formally announced by Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on Tuesday. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky fumed that Nato had reached an “absurd” decision and was demonstrating “weakness”. British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace lost no time in rebuking him for a lack of “gratitude”. The concern is that, if Kyiv joins the military alliance at this stage, Nato members will be required to leap to Ukraine’s defence and fight Russia directly.
Most western states balk at the notion of a face-to-face confrontation with a nuclear-armed Russia – rather than the current proxy one, paid for exclusively in Ukrainian blood. But there is a more duplicitous subtext being obscured: the fact that Nato is responsible for sustaining the war it now cites as grounds for disqualifying Ukraine from joining the military alliance. Nato got Kyiv into its current, bloody mess – but isn’t ready to help it find a way out. It was Nato, after all, that chose to flirt openly with Ukraine from 2008 onwards, promising it eventual membership – with the undisguised hope that one day, the alliance would be able to flex its military muscles menacingly on Russia’s doorstep.= It was the UK that intervened weeks after Russia’s invasion in February 2022, and presumably on Washington’s orders, to scupper negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow – talks that could have ended the war at an early stage, before Russia began seizing territories in eastern Ukraine.
A deal then would have been much simpler than one now. Most likely, it would have required Kyiv to commit to neutrality, rather than pursuing covert integration into Nato. Moscow would have demanded, too, an end to the Ukrainian government’s political, legal and military attacks on its Russian-speaking populations in the east. Now the chief sticking point to an agreement will be persuading the Kremlin to trust the West and reverse its annexation of eastern Ukraine, assuming Nato ever allows Kyiv to re-engage in talks with Russia. And finally, it is Nato members, especially the US, that have been shipping out vast quantities of military hardware to prolong the fighting in Ukraine – keeping the death toll mounting on both sides. In short, Nato is now using the very war it has done everything to fuel as a pretext to stop Ukraine from joining the alliance.
Seen another way, the message Nato has sent Moscow is that Russia made exactly the right decision to invade – if the goal, as Putin has always maintained, is to ensure Kyiv remains neutral. It is the war that has prevented Ukraine from being completely enfolded in the western military alliance. It is the war that has stopped Ukraine’s transformation into a Nato forward base, one where the West could station nuclear-tipped missiles minutes from Moscow. Had Russia not invaded, Kyiv would have been free to accelerate what it was already doing secretly: integrating into Nato. So what is Zelensky supposed to conclude from his exclusion from Nato, after he committed his country to an ongoing war rather than negotiations and neutrality?
“..I want people to understand what this troop mobilization is about. It’s about preparing for a ground war with Russia,”
• Kennedy Accuses Biden Of Preparing For ‘War With Russia’ (RT)
By ordering the deployment of 3,000 more reservists to Europe, US President Joe Biden is preparing to fight Russian forces on the ground in Ukraine, Democratic presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has said. “Biden has lost his way,” Kennedy tweeted on Friday, arguing that the president should focus on America’s domestic problems instead of trying to achieve “global military dominance.” “I want people to understand what this troop mobilization is about. It’s about preparing for a ground war with Russia,” he said. The idea of defeating Moscow in its conflict with Kiev is a “futile geopolitical fantasy” of the Biden administration, the Democratic presidential candidate added.
Thousands of Ukrainians have already lost their lives because “America’s foreign policy establishment manipulated their country into war… Now, rather than acknowledge failure, Biden admin prepares to sacrifice American lives too,” Kennedy said. On Thursday, Biden signed an executive order mobilizing 3,000 members of the US military’s Selected Reserve to boost the ranks of Operation Atlantic Resolve, which Washington launched in Europe in 2014 after Crimea rejoined Russia following the Western-backed coup in Kiev. According to Army Lieutenant General Douglas Sims, the Joint Staff director of operations, the move “reaffirms the unwavering [US] support and commitment to defend NATO’s eastern flank” in the wake of Russia’s military operation in Ukraine.
The US European Command (EUCOM) spokesman, Navy Captain Bill Speaks, said the deployment of reservists “will not change current force-posture levels in Europe.” The leading Republican presidential candidate, former President Donald Trump, also had some harsh words to say about Biden’s decision to send more American troops to Europe. The “reckless escalation in Ukraine” pursued by the White House is “straining the US military to the point of disaster,” he said. “Joe Biden can’t even walk up the steps of Air Force One without tripping. The last thing this incompetent administration should be doing is pushing us further toward World War III.”
Trump reiterated his earlier claim that if he becomes president again, he would end the conflict in Ukraine in 24 hours. “Not one American mother or father wants to send their child to die in Eastern Europe. We must have peace.” Another Republican presidential candidate, Vivek Ramaswamy, said it is “downright disturbing” that the US media is largely ignoring the president’s order in its reporting. “What is the justification now [for sending reservists to Europe]? What are the operations? Where will they go? What will they do? We need answers, not sweeping this under the rug as Biden would prefer,” Ramaswamy said in a statement.
“We can heal all of this if we try. But not if we pour our resources into foreign adventures,”
• RFK Jr. Reams Establishment for ‘Manipulating’ Ukraine Into Conflict (Sp.)
Democratic presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has condemned the US “foreign policy establishment” for its role in the Ukrainian crisis, and expressed fears that Washington may be preparing for a full-on conflict with Russia. “President Biden just called up 3,000 reservists to augment US troops in Europe as part of ‘Operation Atlantic Resolve’. I want people to understand what this troop mobilization is about. It’s about preparing for a ground war with Russia,” RFK Jr wrote in a viral tweet viewed over 2.4 million times Friday evening. “Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian youth have already died because America’s foreign policy establishment manipulated their country into war to fulfill [a] vain and futile geopolitical phantasy. Now, rather than acknowledge failure, [the] Biden administration prepares to sacrifice American lives too,” the candidate added in a separate thread viewed 4.8 million times.
“Meanwhile,” the candidate continued, US cities and infrastructure are falling apart, with the middle class being “hollowed out,” crime soaring, and “chronic disease and addiction run[ning] rampant.” “We can heal all of this if we try. But not if we pour our resources into foreign adventures,” RFK Jr. stressed. Separately, touching on the Biden White House’s recent approval to send cluster munitions to Kiev, RFK Jr. emphasized that this wasn’t “the first time the US has deployed cluster bombs,” and that the US military “used them against Serbia in 1999,” leading to mass civilian casualties. RFK Jr., the son of assassinated former attorney general and presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, and nephew of assassinated US President John F. Kennedy, is polling at double digits weeks into his campaign, despite attempts by the media to silence and smear him as an anti-vaxxer nutcase.
RFK Jr. maintains that he is not “anti-vaccine,” but seeks more regulatory oversight of drug companies, and more accountability for federal health officials. A June Economist/YouGov poll showed that the candidate has a 49 percent favorability rating, higher than both President Biden and Donald trump (44 percent favorability each, respectively). The high favorability ratings have been attributed to the Kennedy namesake, which continues to hold massive sway among Democrats even six decades after JFK’s murder, and to RFK Jr.’s popularity among many self-declared Republicans, who agree with him on issues ranging from medical bodily autonomy to the need to challenge corporate and government corruption.
Kennedy is expected to have a hard time edging out Biden in 2024 even if he wins the primaries’ popular vote, given the existence of superdelegates, powerful electors to the presidential nominating convention who essentially have the power to override the wishes of ordinary voters. During the 2016 Democratic primary cycle, supporters of Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders accused the Hillary Clinton campaign of “rigging” the primary process using superdelegates and direct electoral manipulation, with the scandal leading to the resignation of Democratic National Committee chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz. This time around, RFK Jr.’s supporters fear the party may move against him in a similar fashion. The candidate has ruled out a third party run.
Alex Gutentag and Michael Shellenberger on a NY Post story about an RFK video.
RFK: “@nypost story is mistaken. I have never, ever suggested that the COVID-19 virus was targeted to spare Jews. I accurately pointed out — during an off-the-record conversation — that the U.S. and other governments are developing ethnically targeted bioweapons and that a 2021 study of the COVID-19 virus shows that COVID-19 appears to disproportionately affect certain races since the furin cleave docking site is most compatible with Blacks and Caucasians and least compatible with ethnic Chinese, Finns, and Ashkenazi Jews. In that sense, it serves as a kind of proof of concept for ethnically targeted bioweapons. I do not believe and never implied that the ethnic effect was deliberately engineered. That study is here: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32664879/”
• RFK Jr. Triggers Overdue Debate About China’s Bioweapons Research (Public)
Democratic presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is feeding anti-Semitic conspiracy theories that China created COVID-19 as a bioweapon to kill whites and blacks but spare Chinese and Jewish people, says the Anti-Defamation League (ADL). “The claim that COVID-19 was a bioweapon created by the Chinese or Jews to attack Caucasians and black people is deeply offensive,” an ADL spokesperson told the New York Post, “and feeds into sinophobic and anti-semitic conspiracy theories about COVID-19 that we have seen evolve over the last three years.” Kennedy made his remarks at a dinner party last Tuesday. “There is an argument that it is ethnically targeted,” said Kennedy. “COVID-19 is targeted to attack Caucasians and black people. The people who are most immune are Ashkenazi Jews and Chinese.”
The New York Post cites The Center for the Study of Contemporary European Jewry at the University of Tel Aviv to note that “Kennedy’s remark echoes well-worn anti-Semitic literature blaming Jews for the emergence and spread of coronavirus.” But there was nothing anti-Semitic about Kennedy’s remarks, nor did he say that the Chinese government deliberately targeted whites and blacks and spared Jewish and Chinese people. “We don’t know whether it was deliberately targeted or not,” he said. And a few hours ago, in response to the brewing controversy, Kennedy tweeted, “I have never, ever suggested that the COVID-19 virus was targeted to spare Jews.” It’s true that Kennedy pointed to evidence that Covid had a different impact on different groups. “There are papers out there that show the racial or ethnic differential and impact,” Kennedy said at the dinner party.
And in his tweet, he wrote, “I accurately pointed out — during an off-the-record conversation — that the U.S. and other governments are developing ethnically targeted bioweapons and that a 2021 study of the COVID-19 virus shows that COVID-19 appears to disproportionately affect certain races since the furin cleave docking site is most compatible with Blacks and Caucasians and least compatible with ethnic Chinese, Finns, and Ashkenazi Jews.” The paper Kennedy linked to in his tweet concluded, “Human genetic factors may contribute to the extremely high transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 and to the relentlessly progressive disease observed in a small but significant proportion of infected individuals, but these factors are largely unknown.”
At the same time, Kennedy is right to raise the alarm about China’s bioweapons program. And the debate over bioweapons research, which includes research into vaccines to protect against them, is long overdue. [..] Reached by telephone, Kennedy told Public, “My point was that what they’re doing is horrendous. Instead of being at war, we should be signing treaties for peace and for controlling bioweapons.”
RFK
Absolutely disgusting and insane. The @nypost obtained video from a recent RFK Jr. event where he suggested COVID is a Chinese bioweapon “ethnically targeted” to “attack Caucasians and Black people” and to spare “Ashkenazi Jews and Chinese” people. He then falsely claimed the… pic.twitter.com/reTqaEc1aL
— MeidasTouch (@MeidasTouch) July 15, 2023
For everybody.
• ‘Disbanding’ NATO Would Be ‘Best’ Scenario for People of Ukraine (Sp.)
Against the backdrop of the Kiev regime’s much-hyped but faltering counteroffensive that kicked off in early June, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had been craving tangible NATO entry promises at the military bloc’s recent summit. Yet, Kiev ended up with promises of more weapons to fan the flames of NATO’s ongoing proxy war against Russia. The dissolution of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) would be the best scenario for Ukraine, according to American politician Geoffrey M. Young. “The best thing that could happen to the people of Ukraine would be for NATO to disband and for the US to remove ALL of our weapons and troops from Europe forever,” the Democrat wrote on Twitter. The politician who has been vocal about his support for Russia’s ongoing special military operation in Ukraine accompanied his post with a reference to recent remarks made by John Kirby.
The official, who serves as the coordinator for strategic communications at the National Security Council in the White House, said an additional 3,000 US reserve troops have been authorized for deployment to Europe, and will predominantly focus on administrative and logistics tasks to “support and sustain a large troop presence for a long time.” John Kirby reiterated there are over 80,000 American troops in Europe, due to the “realization” that the “security environment in Europe is changed”. The aim is to ensure that the United States has “the proper force posture to be able to support an additional eastern flank presence for the long haul,” the White House official had added. “Kirby just inadvertently admitted that Ukraine’s Army is gone,” was the reaction of some people to the post on social media.
Odd couple.
• France and India Pool Efforts To Reach Peace In Ukraine – Le Monde (RT)
India and France have joined their efforts to develop a new plan seeking a peaceful settlement of the fighting in Ukraine, Le Monde reported on Saturday. The stage was set for the new apparent attempt to resolve the conflict when French President Emmanuel Macron met with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Paris earlier this week. During the meeting, Macron signaled that he wanted the two countries to work together to address “global challenges” while also citing shared concerns about the “fragmentation of the international community” over Ukraine. According to Le Monde, France considers India, which has refrained from condemning Russia over its military campaign in the neighboring country, as “an essential partner in the search for a lasting solution.”
While Modi has so far refrained from following the lead of Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva by portraying himself as a mediator, he has instructed his subordinates to work with their French counterparts to find a way out of the current diplomatic impasse, the report says. While Le Monde did not provide any details of the plan, it noted that at this stage it does not look like previous initiatives floated by China and several other nations. Since the start of the Ukraine conflict more than one year ago, many world leaders have called for peace negotiations between Moscow and Kiev, including Lula, who in April urged the US “to stop encouraging war” and instead focus on finding a diplomatic solution.
Lula’s statement came after China in February unveiled its own proposal, which called for “respecting sovereignty of all countries” and abandoning “the Cold War mentality.”At the same time, Macron struck a different tone, expressing hope that negotiations between Ukraine and Russia could start if Kiev manages to achieve success during its much-hyped summer offensive, which Moscow says has so far failed to gain any ground. However, while Moscow has repeatedly said that it is open to negotiations with Ukraine, last year President Vladimir Zelensky signed a decree banning talks with the current Russian leadership. Later, Kiev also came up with its own peace plan demanding that Russia withdraw from all territories that it claims as its own and that Moscow pay war reparations. The Kremlin has dismissed the plan as detached from reality.
“..firstly, Russia will not relinquish the territories it seized unless Ukraine reclaims them by force, or Putin is replaced by a West-appeasing leader willing to cede these territories via diplomacy.”
• Did Biden Just Inadvertently Unveil the Path to Peace in Ukraine? (ElKishky)
In an interview with Fareed Zakaria aired on July 9th, 2023, US President Joseph Biden made comments that could potentially sketch out his administration’s vision of a realistic scenario that could potentially end the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. [..] Biden’s comments, if interpreted correctly, might carry significant implications. It seems that he outlined a scenario that would satisfy Russia’s conditions for peace, which could be summarized as follows: maintaining control over Crimea, which was annexed by Russia in 2014, and parts of Ukraine that Russia took control of post-February 2022, especially in Lugansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts which Putin now considers part of Russia; no NATO membership for Ukraine; and the denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine.The last two conditions were stated in Putin’s speech on February 24th, 2022, the day the armed conflict started.
In this speech he stated “…in execution of the treaties of friendship and mutual assistance with the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Lugansk People’s Republic, ratified by the Federal Assembly on February 22, I made a decision to carry out a special military operation. “The purpose of this operation is to protect people who, for eight years now, have been facing humiliation and genocide perpetrated by the Kiev regime. To this end, we will seek to demilitarise and denazify Ukraine…” It is quite possible that these two conditions have lost their significance – despite being recently reiterated by Russian officials- as they were initially mentioned in the context of protecting ethnic Russians in both the then-Ukrainian Lugansk and Donetsk oblasts. According to Putin, these individuals faced discrimination, were being stripped of their Russian identity, and had been bombarded by Ukraine since 2014. These threats no longer exist after the annexation.
One implication of Biden’s comments, if read between the lines, might suggest a potential U.S. acceptance (which does not necessarily translate to an official recognition of legitimacy) of the status quo on the ground. He stated that Ukraine cannot be integrated into NATO while it’s engaged in conflict, owing to his solid commitment to safeguarding every inch of NATO territory. This indicates he cannot guarantee protection for Ukraine’s pre-2014 and 2022 borders without risking an undesirable direct conflict with Russia, a situation which, in his own words, would lead to the West being “all at war with Russia.”. It also implies that the primary responsibility for liberating Ukraine’s territory lies with Ukraine itself.
He stated that NATO will not accept Ukraine anytime soon, to prevent a direct NATO intervention in the conflict, and that Ukraine will be granted a status akin to Israel’s – which could potentially enhance its defensive capacity, but only after a ceasefire or a peace agreement is signed. Two realities Biden would have been surely well aware of entering this interview are: firstly, Russia will not relinquish the territories it seized unless Ukraine reclaims them by force, or Putin is replaced by a West-appeasing leader willing to cede these territories via diplomacy. The chances of this happening in the near future are slim. In fact, numerous Western and Russian analysts suggest that even if Putin were to be replaced, there are no guarantees his successor wouldn’t be equally or potentially more hawkish.
Only until Russia attacks.
• Russia-Ukraine Conflict ‘At A Stalemate’ – Pentagon Official (RT)
Fighting in Ukraine has reached “a bit of a stalemate,” US Defense Intelligence Agency Chief of Staff John Kirchhofer told a conference in Washington on Thursday. His assessment of Ukraine’s chances is considerably gloomier than that of other Biden administration officials. “Certainly we are at a bit of a stalemate,” Kirchhofer said, according to Bloomberg. “One of the things that the Russian leadership believes is that they can outlast the support of the West.” Ukrainian forces have been bogged down in a counteroffensive against Russian defenses from Kherson to Donetsk since early June, and have failed to make any significant territorial gains against the Russians. The offensive has cost Ukraine 26,000 men and more than 3,000 pieces of military hardware, according to the latest figures from the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Ukrainian President Zelensky and his top officials have publicly blamed the West for failing to provide enough weapons – including long-range missiles and fighter jets – to guarantee the offensive’s success. However, Kirchhofer warned that no one weapon system will change Kiev’s fortunes. Neither US-supplied HIMARS rocket artillery and cluster bombs, nor British Storm Shadow cruise missiles, have thus far tilted the battlefield situation in Ukraine’s favor, he pointed out. “None of these, unfortunately, are the holy grail that Ukrainians looking for that will allow them to break through,” he said. While recent media reports suggest that Kiev’s American and European backers are frustrated with the pace of Ukraine’s counteroffensive, Washington officials have publicly insisted that all is well.
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley said last month that Ukrainian forces were “advancing steadily,” but that progress would be slow and “very bloody.” White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told CNN last month that heavy Ukrainian casualties are “to be expected,” but that Zelensky will continue to receive “the support he needs not just from the United States, but from 50 other partners.” US President Joe Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken have both repeatedly rejected the idea of Ukraine entering into peace talks with Russia. Both insist that Ukraine will decide when to sit down to negotiate, and neither have spoken on whether this position will change if Kiev’s counteroffensive continues to fail. Russia maintains that Western arms deliveries will only serve to prolong the conflict, without altering its eventual outcome.
Stalemate
John Kirchhofer of the US Defense Intelligence Agency says the Ukraine war is "at a bit of a stalemate."
As for NATO's heavy weapons: "None of these, unfortunately, are the holy grail that Ukraine is looking for that I think will allow them in the near-term to break through." pic.twitter.com/fkUjpVy6Oo
— Aaron Maté (@aaronjmate) July 15, 2023
Wonder why, after all the talk. No troops left?
• US Delaying Approval Of F-16 Training For Ukraine – Politico (RT)
European countries have yet to receive formal approval from Washington to train Ukrainian pilots to fly US-designed F-16 fighter jets, Politico reported on Friday, citing sources. The ‘international coalition’ seeking to help Kiev procure F-16s and train Ukrainian pilots was first announced by the UK and the Netherlands in mid-May, with the US coming on board a few days later. A total of 11 countries have supported the initiative, with a training center expected to be set up in Romania. However, the US State Department has not approved the request to transfer instruction manuals, flight simulators, and other materials required for training, Politico said, adding, however, that there is no indication that the US will not eventually greenlight the move. Pentagon spokesman Garron Garn said the request “is still being reviewed.”
William LaPlante, the department’s acquisition chief, told the outlet that the Pentagon has to “make sure we’re ready to go with the technical manuals being translated and the tech data packages and a sustainment plan” before approving the transfer. In recent months, Ukraine has repeatedly demanded that its Western backers send F-16 jets, saying they could play a key role in countering Russian air power. Earlier this week, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba said Kiev could deploy the first F-16s by late March 2024. Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that if F-16s are sent to Ukraine, they “will burn” just like other Western hardware. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has described the potential deliveries as an escalatory move, noting that the aircraft can carry nuclear weapons.
In early June, Politico reported that senior US officials believe that future support for Ukraine hinges on the success of its much-hyped counteroffensive, and should Kiev fail to deliver, the military assistance “will likely dry up.” Later the same month, the Financial Times reported, citing sources, that Western officials are not impressed by the results of the counteroffensive. The Russian Defense Ministry said the Ukrainian counteroffensive, which has been underway for more than a month, has failed to gain any ground. According to Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, since the start of the push, Kiev has lost more than 26,000 soldiers and around 3,000 units of heavy military equipment. Ukrainian officials, including President Vladimir Zelensky, attempted to shift the blame for the slow progress onto the West, citing delays in military aid.
“..only if “the existence of the state as a whole comes under threat.”
• Russian Experts Issue Rebuke To Call For Preemptive Nuclear Strike (RT)
It is extremely irresponsible and dangerous to call on Russia to carry out a preemptive nuclear strike in order to gain an upper hand in its current standoff with the West over Ukraine, more than 20 experts from Russia’s influential think tank have warned. The joint statement released by a group of members of the Council for Foreign and Defense Policy on Thursday is one of the recent responses to the debate within the Russian expert community about the use of nuclear weapons, which was prompted by a controversial op-ed written last month by Sergey Karaganov, an honorary member of the council’s presidium. Karaganov has made a case for Moscow lowering the threshold for the first use of its nuclear arsenal, arguing that, at some point, it should consider striking targets in Europe.
Without mentioning Karaganov by name, a group of fellow think tank members said that they “unequivocally condemn” such reasoning. “It is beyond irresponsible to assume that one can manage a limited nuclear conflict and stop it from spiraling into a global nuclear war,” they warned, adding that, under such a scenario, “tens and perhaps even millions” of lives would be at stake. “It is a direct threat to humanity as a whole,” the statement said. “It is unacceptable to use pseudo-theoretical arguments and talk show-style emotional statements to stoke sentiments in society that could push one towards catastrophic decisions.” The think tank, also known under its Russian acronym SVOP, is the co-founder of the Valdai Discussion Club, whose annual sessions President Vladimir Putin attends.
Karaganov’s approach was previously criticized by other noted experts, including Fyodor Lukyanov, chairman of SVOP’s presidium and editor-in-chief of Russia in Global Affairs magazine, who argued that the damage from “the game of nuclear peek-a-boo is a gamble” would be “multiples worse than any hypothetical benefits.” Putin said last month that Moscow would resort to nuclear weapons only when faced with an existential threat. According to Russia’s Nuclear Doctrine, revised in 2020, the country reserves the right to use its nuclear arsenal if it comes under attack with nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction. It may also use the nuclear option when attacked with conventional means, but only if “the existence of the state as a whole comes under threat.”
“..the Ukrainian military lost 26,000 men and more than 3,000 pieces of military hardware..”
• 20% of Ukrainian Weapons Destroyed In Just Two Weeks – New York Times (RT)
The Ukrainian military lost 20% of the equipment it sent to the battlefield during the first two weeks of its counteroffensive, the New York Times reported on Saturday. This high attrition rate was reportedly a key factor in Kiev’s decision to pause the operation. Beginning in early June, Ukrainian forces launched a series of attacks all along the front line from Kherson to Donetsk. Advancing through minefields and without air support, the Ukrainian military lost 26,000 men and more than 3,000 pieces of military hardware, according to the latest figures from the Russian Ministry of Defense. Ukrainian losses were at their highest during the initial two weeks of the offensive, the New York Times claimed, citing unnamed American and European officials.
These officials said that up to 20% of Ukraine’s tanks and armored vehicles were destroyed in this period, including many Western-provided vehicles. For some units, Western equipment was lost at an even higher rate, the Times continued, citing figures from a pro-Ukrainian organization. Ukraine’s 47th Mechanized Brigade – a NATO-trained unit – apparently lost 30% of its 99 Bradley Infantry Fighting vehicles in two weeks, while the 33rd Mechanized Brigade lost nearly a third of its 32 German-made Leopard tanks in a single week. “They all burned,” said one Ukrainian soldier who witnessed at least six Western vehicles destroyed in a single Russian artillery barrage. Another Ukrainian fighter told the Times that his unit’s Bradleys run over anti-tank mines on a daily basis.
While the troops inside often survive, the vehicles are left immobilized long before they reach Russian lines. According to Russian President Vladimir Putin, Russian forces have destroyed a total of 311 Ukrainian tanks since June 4. “At least a third of them, I believe, were Western-made tanks, including Leopards,” Putin told Russia 24 TV on Thursday. After the first two weeks, Ukrainian commanders decided to pause the counteroffensive, and losses subsequently dropped to 10%, the Times claimed. President Vladimir Zelensky acknowledged the pause this week, but blamed the West for failing to supply him with enough weapons and equipment for a successful operation.
With little territorial gain to show for Kiev’s losses, Western officials have expressed disappointment at the pace of the offensive, according to a steady trickle of media reports since mid-June. Zelensky and some of his top officials still insist that the decisive phase of their counteroffensive has yet to begin. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Western backers are running low on ammunition, particularly 155mm artillery shells. US President Joe Biden admitted this week that “we’re low” on these shells, explaining that the shortage compelled him to send controversial cluster munitions in their stead. The US has also stalled on approving the training of Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets, something that Kiev insists will help restart the faltering counteroffensive.
“Stop the war and join NATO? Many people would say it is a historical chance,”
• Crimea Invasion Would Kill 200,000 Ukrainian Soldiers – Arestovich (RT)
The cost of invading Crimea would be too high for Kiev, a former adviser to Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, Aleksey Arestovich, said this week. The operation would likely lead to hundreds of thousands of casualties, he said, speaking to Russian journalist Yulia Latynina. There are “few prospects” of seizing the Crimean Peninsula through military means, Arestovich said, when discussing the options remaining to Kiev in its ongoing conflict with Moscow. “What will be the cost? Extermination of 200,000 of the adult male population?” he added, referring to the number of soldiers Ukraine would be likely to lose. Ukraine’s economy might also be “totally destroyed” in the process, he warned. Kiev is already “totally dependent”on its Western backers, the former presidential adviser admitted.
Should the US and its allies stop supplying Ukrainian troops with weapons, they would not only be unable to take back territories that had joined Russia, but would also struggle to defend their current positions, he said. Arestovich also openly charged that Washington and its allies were pursuing their own interests in the conflict. “Let’s be honest: our foreign policy goals in this war contrast sharply with the foreign policy goals of our sponsors and backers,” he said, adding that the West was willing to sacrifice Ukraine’s territory and lives of its people to achieve the desired outcome. Ukraine can now only influence the Western leaders at an “emotional”level, the former presidential adviser said, adding that Kiev should have focused on building up its own sovereignty instead. “We need relations… based on real profits. That’s the only thing they [the West] understand,” he added.
Arestovich also said that “immoral policies… and inability to take serious decisions” are the “major weakness of the West.” Still, Ukraine cannot just abandon its Western backers and pursue its own goals “at any cost,” the former adviser insisted, adding that that would be a “dead end”for Kiev. The only consolation would be the prospect of joining NATO in exchange for peace with Russia. “Stop the war and join NATO? Many people would say it is a historical chance,” the former presidential confidant said. He also described NATO guarantees in exchange for consenting to a peace with Russia along the current contact line as a “fairly good deal.” According to Arestovich, such an agreement would also likely require the West to lift some of its anti-Russian sanctions to convince Moscow to agree to such terms.
His remarks come amid the much-touted Ukrainian summer offensive, which has failed to bring about significant changes on the battlefield almost a month and a half after it was launched. Ukrainian troops have suffered heavy losses, including in Western-supplied heavy armor, during their largely unsuccessful attacks on the Russian defenses. According to Western media, Kiev’s backers have also been frustrated over the slow pace of the operation. Moscow has repeatedly signaled it was ready for peace talks with Ukraine. It has also blamed Kiev for the lack of progress in the diplomatic field, citing a decree signed last year by Zelensky that prohibits talks for as long as Russian President Vladimir Putin remains in power. Kiev put forth its own peace plan demanding Russia withdraw its troops from all the territories within Ukraine’s 1991 borders. Moscow has rejected the proposal, calling it detached from reality.
“Duplicity comes much differently in the United States.”
• Fear and Loathing on Air Force One (Seymour Hersh)
Let’s start with a silly fear but one that does signal the Democratic Party’s growing sense of panic about the 2024 Presidential election. It was expressed to me by someone with excellent party credentials: that Trump could be the Republican nominee and will select Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as his running mate. The strange duo will then sweep to a huge victory over a stumbling Joe Biden, and also take down many of the party’s House and Senate candidates. As for real signs of acute Democratic anxiety: Joe Biden got what he needed before the NATO summit this week by somehow turning Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan inside out and getting him to rebuff Vladimir Putin by announcing that he would support NATO membership for Sweden. The public story for Biden’s face-saving coup was talk about agreeing to sell American F-16 fighter bombers to Turkey.
I have been told a different, secret story about Erdogan’s turnabout: Biden promised that a much-needed $11-13 billion line of credit would be extended to Turkey by the International Monetary Fund. “Biden had to have a victory and Turkey is in acute financial stress,” an official with direct knowledge of the transaction told me. Turkey lost 100,000 people in the earthquake last February, and has four million buildings to rebuild. “What could be better than Erdogan”—under Biden’s tutelage, the official asked, “finally having seen the light and realizing he is better off with NATO and Western Europe?” Reporters were told, according to the New York Times, that Biden called Erdogan while flying to Europe on Sunday. Biden’s coup, the Times reported, would enable him to say that Putin got “exactly what he did not want: an expanded, more direct NATO alliance.” There was no mention of bribery.
A June analysis by Brad W. Setser of the Council on Foreign Relations, “Turkey’s Increasing Balance Sheet Risks,” said it all in the first two sentences—Erdogan won re-election and “now has to find a way to avoid what appears to be an imminent financial crisis.” The critical fact, Setser writes, is that Turkey “is on the edge of truly running out of usable foreign exchange reserves—and facing a choice between selling its gold, an avoidable default, or swallowing the bitter pill of a complete policy reversal and possibly an IMF program.” Another key element of the complicated economic issues facing Turkey is that Turkey’s banks have lent so much money to the nation’s central bank that “they cannot honor their domestic dollar deposits, should Turks ever ask for the funds back.”
The irony for Russia, and a reason for much anger in the Kremlin, Setser notes, is the rumor that Putin has been providing Russian gas to Erdogan on credit, and not demanding that the state gas importer pay up. Putin’s largesse has been flowing as Ergodan has been selling drones to Ukraine for use in its war against Russia. Turkey has also permitted Ukraine to ship its crops through the Black Sea. All of this European political and economic double dealing was done openly and in plain sight. Duplicity comes much differently in the United States.
“If President Biden takes orders from him, then we’ll do whatever he says as well.”
• Zelensky Activates 3,000 U.S. Military Reservists (BBee)
Casualties continue to mount in the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict, causing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to make the decision to call up 3,000 U.S. military reserve soldiers. “I need all the forces I command at my disposal,” Zelensky said when announcing the activation of American troops. “These young men and women have been well-trained to defend Ukraine, and now is the time to fulfill their purpose.” As reports of Russian military advancements continued to filter in from the front lines, Zelensky — the commander of all U.S. armed forces — determined his best option was to call in reinforcements. Pentagon officials were quick to comply. “We’re here to follow orders from the top, and it doesn’t get any higher-up than Mr. Zelensky,” said Pentagon spokesman John Kirby.
“If President Biden takes orders from him, then we’ll do whatever he says as well. The full might of the United States military is at his beck and call.” Though some pockets of opposition to the move were present within the U.S. Congress, the vast majority expressed full support. “It’s our job to stand by our leaders in times of war,” said Utah Senator Mitt Romney. “We’ll provide whatever President Zelensky needs. I’ve already got an appointment to shine his shoes the next time he’s here to speak to Congress.” At publishing time, Zelensky was reportedly preparing to scramble U.S. fighter jets to intercept incoming Russian air support while ordering all American missile launch sites to ready their nuclear payloads.
Trombone
https://twitter.com/i/status/1680189525040021504
Caturday
https://t.co/XCOrHYdOU0 pic.twitter.com/NzXbaa47YV
— Meonk! (@majeliskucing) July 15, 2023
Tornado
https://twitter.com/i/status/1680225076019429377
Mackerel
https://twitter.com/i/status/1680244382476251136
Frog
To prevent drying out in the hot sun of the dry season, the giant monkey frog secretes a form of organic ‘sun screen’ and applies it to its body
[source, full video, BBC: https://t.co/TFlhIkSzWr]pic.twitter.com/Q0B66PTVN0
— Massimo (@Rainmaker1973) July 15, 2023
happy
https://twitter.com/i/status/1680255476871712770
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