Oct 152019
 October 15, 2019  Posted by at 7:29 pm Primers Tagged with: , , , , , , ,

Rembrandt van Rijn Self portrait with tousled hair 1629


If you ask me, this is brilliant, but I know you’re not asking me. Still, what I’m reading today is genius. That is, Donald Trump and his people have found a way to communicate with Vladimir Putin and his people while the entire crew that’s listening in to his talks with foreign leaders were doing something else, whatever that may be.

The overall impression of Trump’s order to redeploy an entire 50 US soldiers within Syria is that he opened the floodgates to mayhem and genocide, but perhaps that picture is not entirely accurate. Perhaps Trump did not act on some whiff of the moment instinct. Perhaps he’s not as shallow and stupid as the press makes him out to be. I know, big challenge and all, but let’s look at what actually happened.

Me, I’m sure Trump talked to Putin before he withdrew the 49 or 50 troops , just to make sure all-out disaster wouldn’t ensue. This is from Newsweek, not exactly a pro-Trump outlet:

US Cedes Syrian City To Russia In Battlefield ‘Handover’ As Turkey Tries To Take It

The U.S. was scheduled as of Monday to officially withdraw from Manbij within 24-hours, leaving the mostly Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces behind as two rival factions—the Syrian government, backed by Russia and Iran, and the Turkey-backed Syrian insurgents opposed to it—sought to seize control of the strategic location. A senior Pentagon official told Newsweek that U.S. personnel, “having been in the area for longer, has been assisting the Russian forces to navigate through previously unsafe areas quickly.”

“It is essentially a handover,” the official said. “However, it’s a quick out, not something that will include walk-throughs, etc., everything is about making out with as much as possible of our things while destroying any sensitive equipment that cannot be moved.” Contacted by Newsweek on Monday, no reply was returned from the Pentagon before publication. Faced with a potentially imminent clash with Turkish forces and their Syrian rebel allies, the Syrian Democratic Forces have chosen to realign themselves with the central government and its Russian backer, a partnership that would soon be put to the test.

I don’t claim to know how the two presidents manage to communicate in the face of all the scrutiny (re: Trump’s call with Ukraine president Zelensky), but communicate they did. Or we would never have arrived at the outcome we have. Trump, I’m convinced, did not leave the Kurds to die at the hand of Erdogan. He got Putin involved. And yes, that means Russia strengthening its position in Syria.

But it also means Trump being able to fulfill his campaign promise to withdraw US troops from “endless wars”. And Russia may well be the best bet to prevent further mayhem and bloodshed in the region. See, Syria, as I’ve said a million times by now, is Russia’s only stronghold in the Middle East, and they will therefore never let go of it. Not a chance.

That is the reason why the insane US policy of regime change in Iraq, Libya, etc., was never going to work in Syria. Syria = Russia. Not because Putin is a big admirer of Assad, but because without Syria Russia is gone from the Middle East. So, zero chance. A bit more from the BBC:

Russia Vows To Prevent Turkey-Syria Clashes

Russia has said it will not allow clashes between Turkish and Syrian forces, as Turkey’s military offensive in northern Syria continues. “This would simply be unacceptable… and therefore we will not allow it, of course,” said Moscow’s special envoy for Syria, Alexander Lavrentyev. The withdrawal of US troops from the region, announced last week, gave Turkey a “green light”, critics say. Russia is a key military ally of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad. Russia’s defence ministry said its forces, which have been deployed in Syria since 2015, were patrolling along the “line of contact” between Syrian and Turkish forces.

During a visit to the United Arab Emirates, Mr Lavrentyev described Turkey’s offensive as “unacceptable”. He said that under previous agreements Turkey can only go 5-10km (3-6 miles) into Syria – far less than the 30km “safe zone” Ankara is proposing – and that Turkey has no right to permanently deploy its troops in the country. Syria is in contact with Turkey to avoid a conflict, he said. Mr Lavrentyev also confirmed that Russia had helped to broker a deal between Kurds and Damascus that saw Kurdish-led forces cede territory to Syrian government troops in return for military support.

All the talk about Erdogan genociding the Kurds is, well, greatly exaggerated. His hands are tied. By Trump, who has warned him with a threat of obliterating his economy, and far more by Putin who simply states some things are not acceptable.

The outcome of all this is going to be that Turkey will have its safe zone on the Syrian border, just smaller than Erdogan wants. The Kurds will have their territory just behind that safe zone. Millions of Syrian refugees will be able to resettle in these two territories. It is a pretty genius solution to the whole issue. US troops, gone, Russia and Assad keeping the peace, no 3.6 million refugees coming to Europe.

And you were saying Trump is an idiot who leaves the Kurds to be slaughtered? You see, I’m never sure about anything, but I’m having to doubt that judgment. That’s not what I’m seeing.

But, you know, I am big time wondering what channels Trump and Putin have found to talk to each other. It’s not phone calls, given how the Zelensky call led to an alleged impeachment inquiry, but how have they managed to do it? Shouldn’t be all that hard, perhaps, just a friend talking to a friend under the radar. But still.





Home Forums Trump Talks To Putin. But How?

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    Rembrandt van Rijn Self portrait with tousled hair 1629   If you ask me, this is brilliant, but I know you’re not asking me. Still, what I’m read
    [See the full post at: Trump Talks To Putin. But How?]


    “Millions of Syrian refugees will be able to resettle in these two territories.”

    I see a different opportunity ….
    The Kurds will have their safe territory to resettle in that province of Syria. ….
    3.5 Millions of Syrians will be helped to resettle farther away in an other Syrian province.

    John Day

    Maybe they use cryptocurrency transactions to communicate. I think that would be workable. I’m no expert.

    John Day

    Moon of Alabama
    The strategic plan behind last week’s development must have come from Moscow. Russia has tried for some time to get Turkey into its camp. Russia, Iran and Syria allowed Turkey a limited invasion of Syria to scare the U.S. out. Russia largely supported the Turkish move but it will also set its limits.

    Trump has been looking for a chance to move the U.S. troops out of Syria since December 2018. The borg made that politically unfeasible. The Turkish (Russian) move gave him the excuse he needed.

    V. Arnold

    And you were saying Trump is an idiot who leaves the Kurds to be slaughtered? You see, I’m never sure about anything, but I’m having to doubt that judgment. That’s not what I’m seeing.

    I agree. I very much like the tenor of this essay of yours. Also, I’m never sure of anything either…
    It always pays to wait and see…
    As to the next few weeks? So far, so good; we’ll see…


    “Winston Churchill is said to have remarked that one of his greatest regrets was not to have honored the promise of granting an independent Kurdistan as agreed to upon the signing of the Treaty of Sevres in 1920. That treaty provided for the partition of the Ottoman Empire at the end of World War I after Turkey had allied itself with defeated Germany and Austria-Hungary.

    “The rise of Kemal Ataturk in Turkey, however, had changed British policy and Ataturk was skilled at exploiting divisions within the Kurdish community, which comprised approximately one third of the population within the borders of present day Turkey. The Armenian population was also rather extensive and occupied much of the same territory inhabited by the Kurds where they had previously lived in relative harmony. Many of the Kurds were more conservative in their Islamist beliefs at that time and some were encouraged by the Kemalists to join in the genocide of the Armenian christians. Others, that refused were exiled or became the victims of genocide themselves. Some had not yet been triggered by nationalist aspirations.

    “As the Kemalists exploited these differences, they consolidated their power and the British and their European allies lost their zeal for Kurdish independence, reneging on their promise. Instead, they signed the Treaty of Lausanne (1923) which allowed the Turks to retain a large swathe of Anatolia, while carving up the remains of the Ottoman Empire and granting themselves colonial control of the remaining territory. This is the background for the current conflicts and it shouldn’t be difficult to deduce why Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Syria oppose giving up any territory.”


    V. Arnold

    In the annals of bombastic Trump tweets, this one is simply astonishing: here we have a President of the United States, on the record, unmasking the whole $8-trillion intervention in the Middle East as an endless war based on a “false premise.” No wonder the Pentagon is not amused.

    I love it!
    Link; https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-kurds-face-stark-options-after-us-pullback

    While the headline is a bit mis-leading; well worth a read.

    Dr. D

    Another picture of how Rembrandt was one of those rare geniuses where every stroke is always perfect.
    Prettymuch what I was saying. We’ve got some phrasing, that the U.S. will put on Turkish sanctions, like I was saying, this just drives them into the Russia-China camp, so I can only assume that the U.S. has largely ceded Turkey from the Western economic sphere, which we already knew and was going to happen anyway, but this formalizes their interests.

    The Kurds are protected, but by Syria. The article talks about Turkey, but Turkey is now largely a Russian satellite, has been since the U.S.’s (yet another!) failed coup. (We’re #1 at losing!) Erdogan can blame all the economic readjustment to Russia pain on Trump. But that’s to say the articles make it seem like Turkey is acting independently. They’re not. Their leashes are held by the U.S. and Russia, indisputably, and BOTH want what is happening here, the Deep State loses and territorial integrity is being upheld for now, war ends, Europe is not destroyed with mass disruptive cultural immigration as planned, and refugees rebuild their own homes. Now if only we could give them $1,000 a person in war reparations from the Soros/Cheney/Biden fund to make that happen and teach not to do that again. But the (Iran) pipeline will be billions, so…

    The U.S. and media have surprisingly stood down on this, only the usual sniping OMB. Yawn. That means it’s a done deal, they’re not even going to try, and why should they? What? Are we going to do anything with 50 whole troops? Are we going to re-escalate to 50,000 somehow? Nope. Pull it.

    Communications, not sure – of course! If I were, the DS would be too – but China has the entangled encrypted satellite system, and they never invent anything but steal it so pretty sure we have one. As example of how science, or rather pop ‘Science!™’ is constantly wrong, they use Schrodinger’s Cat to carry the message, entangling two ‘particles’ (not particles) such that as soon as the box is opened, one spins one way and one the opposite. This is God’s own seal that the box/message has not been tampered with. And it can happen at any distance, and here’s the science part: it happens simultaneously, i.e. faster than the speed of light. So below Plank’s Length, toss out Einstein.

    CryptoCurrency encryption is essentially AES256, which is good on brute force, but was developed and released by the CIA/NSA themselves, so I’d be shocked if there isn’t a design-flaw to back-door. Not quite good enough, so why not those “beautiful letters” Trump coos over from Kim Jong? Yes, just write the #@%* thing down with a pencil and hand it to someone. That’s the one thing they’re not looking for, the super-dopes, while sniffing undersea cables with remote subs and causing Alaskan sinkings and U.S. Destroyers to crash into container ships chasing them at speed. Just write it down. Honestly, I don’t know how anything gets done anymore. In 2002 General Van Riper eviscerated the U.S. military in a war game simulating Iraq. How? He used bike messengers, fishing boats, and flashlights, old-school WWII stuff.

    “In a preemptive strike, Red launched a massive salvo of cruise missiles that overwhelmed the Blue forces’ electronic sensors and destroyed sixteen warships. This included one aircraft carrier, ten cruisers and five of six amphibious ships. An equivalent success in a real conflict would have resulted in the deaths of over 20,000 service personnel [in 24 hours]…”


    So he sank the entire U.S. fleet in one day, despite not being allowed any normal arms. “At this point, the exercise was suspended, Blue’s ships were “re-floated”, and the rules of engagement were changed” …to prevent things like taxis and flashlights, so that conventional, high-tech U.S. forces and tactics could, at last, win. Totally reasonable. Not as if flashlights and taxis are available to the enemy or anything.

    Wait: EXACTLY as seen in the real wars we lost in Afghanistan, Syria, Libya, Iraq, Sudan, Ukraine, and every other place we lose, lose, lose, lose, lose. And somehow they think that the military – having never won a war — the U.S. government would win a low-tech small-arms war against the U.S. people while on their home territory. I’ll say what Vietnam said: “We have to win: this is our country. You can go home, we can’t.” They won: we went home, they’re still there, better than ever. We’re broke.

    Remember that apocryphal Space Pen? The U.S. paid NASA $10 Million to develop a pen that could write underwater, upside-down, in space. The Russians used a pencil. When all this went down 20 years ago, Putin went out and bought some manual typewriters for the FSB.

    …And you wonder why we can’t win any wars. California just lost $1 Billion in the (intentional) blackout because no retail shops have shoeboxes to take money in, and no remaining land-phones to do business over.

    What to say?

    Kurdistan will be alright. Unlike us.


    John Wayne wasn’t known as the smartest kid on the block.

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