Professorlocknload
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” Do you believe Europe will come down hard on Russia? I’m not so sure.”
Irish, maybe, but not the Dutch.
Anyway it’s sliced, extensive training is involved in using sophisticated weapons systems. Blaming the trained technician isn’t how things work in warfare. The responsibility rests with whoever gave the command to fire the weapon.
Of course, the reality is the low man on the totem pole is generally the scapegoat. Usually an enlisted man, as officers are much like politicians, and exempt from blame.
@ Jal,
Given the extensive propaganda applied by the US State Department to get us involved in Syria, complete with bull shit WMD’s held by the government there, and 101 you tubes to “prove” it, should one rule out MIC/State Dept. involvement in Ukraine?
I mean, Detroit could sure use a little stimulus about now, as could most defense oriented manufacturing regions.
Not if. When.
An analyst down Phoenix way has had it right for years. Defense Sector equities will never go wanting. If one is willing to compromise one’s soul, and end up on the VP’s bad side, that is.
Oh, and could we suppose anti missile batteries are on the way to Kiev as we ponder these mysteries? For the children, mind you.
So,,,the naive Russian still hasn’t heard what happens to those foolish enough to attempt to undermine the mighty Petro Dollar?
Somehow, the moment I heard Putin could seize control of Europe’s energy sources through Ukraine, I knew the US would be headed over there to again destroy the European Village, in order to save it.
Maybe, if many survive what’s coming, they might try and cobble together something more viable than the ridiculous “EU” fiasco that could never have worked among bickering greedy Socialist nation states, divisive in language and culture, in the first place. Not to mention at least one sitting in the center of that quagmire, with nukes!
Of course, if Germany ever gets it’s hands on like kind,,,well, given every time a German gets a gun, he heads for France….
All’s fair in war. When the shooting begins, there are no longer any rules. Oh, of course they are started with the best of intentions. And God is always on both sides. But in the end, they develop a mind of their own, often consuming their perpetrators as well as destroying vast swaths of life and property.
And face it, there are big energy resources in Russia. Since when has the US not considered the resources of others it’s own?
Obviously, to me anyway, the US Administration is attempting to convince the public that Putin is it’s enemy, so that war can spread far and wide to take all eyes off of the economic and humanitarian disasters created by this government.
And anyone who thinks the US is a dead ringer for victory is mistaken. This nation hasn’t “won” any of the wars it has started since WW II.
Add the fact this country is now so divided, I’ll posit there would be a civil war here, on any war “over there.” This time around, media can’t be manipulated as it was in the past. This time, truth will be hard to suppress.
But, hey, the immigration debacle was conveniently bumped from the front pages for a while. The War Party should like that, especially incumbents in an election year. And if this False Flag doesn’t get the cogs spinning at the Defense Industry, the next grand exhibition will for sure.
The cheapest, most effective tool the Fed possesses is the “Jawbone.”
And it is not afraid to use it,,,like now.
“Hawkish,” indeed. When the day comes the Central Planners raise interest rates, it will be in defense of the dollar, it’s fall having been caused by an overshoot in the devaluation of it. The Fed is bluffing at this point. The last thing it needs is to tank bonds and stocks here.
And bond vigilantes can only exist in private credit markets, not government controlled ones. Prolly the main reason interest rates remain stuck on stupid, and will for a while longer. Besides, what better way to discourage (hide?) price discovery of their currency?
My take on all this BS is, the Fed was shocked by the first quarter GDP print, and dumped massive liquidity into the system in some ,as yet, unknown way, combined with intensified data manipulation. Encouraging things like subprime auto loans is more of an indicator of intent, than pushing Bullard in front of a podium, brandishing hawk-talk.
The worm doesn’t turn here until quite a few more folks recognize it for what it is. That inept bureaucracy has commandeered the life’s blood of the means of production, Capital itself.
What’s Nominal, and what’s Real?
Saving dollars is as foolish as believing deflation is possible, in terms of what they will buy in future, therefor believing they are not constantly being devalued under the guise of “growth.”
Here is a case of Real deflation;
Here is another, though sort of in an inverted sense;
On being sold the “hold cash and wait for the opportunity to buy up everything at pennies on the dollar” meme, do you feel lucky enough to bet against the house? The same house that prints it’s own chips?
“Well, if she feels that the Keynesian approach has been such a ravishing success”
Ha! Past QE’s will be proven a joke. As the Fed is now the ruling body politic in this Corporatocracy, it is in command. In near future, in an environment of an executive order/ national emergency neo “New Deal,” a $trillion a month will make a one time $720 billion Tarp fix, back in 08 all seem chump change. Let alone a paltry $trillion a year. But, of course, this information won’t be made public at that juncture. Domestic Terra-ism and all, and national interests, mind ya.
We will witness new meaning of the old Socialist mantra “The ends justify the means.”
Meanwhile, grocery shopping at the local Costco, I was elated that deflation had brought the price of a new tablet PC down 3% this year, and there was plenty of room for it among the $350 worth of food in that cart! Oh, and when I pulled the jitney around for $30 worth of unleaded, there was plenty of room left in the tank afterword.
Arthur Burns reincarnate?
Posted this comment elsewhere this morning, in response to a very similar guest piece from, I think, Phoenix Capital, in regard to the Fed trumping the Rule of Law, and what to do before the “Crash.”
‘All fine, but I figure “it” doesn’t just blow up one day. No, ‘it’ slowly, steadily fades away into stagflation, as the reality of devaluation and moral hazard gradually seeps in, and the faithful fall off the wagon, slowly and one by one.
Where it ends? Most likely, with something similar to Mexico or Venezuela. But that can take decades. Surviving financially isn’t hard, just get “real.” However, the big problem will be inherent in political upheaval.
It’s no fun sitting inside the gray bar hotel, dreaming of all the doubloons you have buried in the hills. So it’s best to work within the system, keeping enemies close in order to front run the chaos as best as possible. PMs, no debt, no substantial visible ‘confiscatable’ assets, and a couple of escape plans, tailored to different scenarios.
Not a plan to run off the cliff and into some other messed up regime, but more one of slipping into safer, more rational zones amidst the turmoil right here.
Think boiling frog, only don’t get in the pot!’
Ps. I might add, here, escaping to some frozen tundra in northern Idaho or Minnesota isn’t a good plan, either. All resources and wealth will be drawn in by the Cities. The periphery will wither. It doesn’t have the voting power.
On “Organics,” I ran into a Pesticide Applicator a while back who told me that around 30% of his business now is certified organic farms. So, on a bit of research,,,
On confidence, and, in continuing the theme, I offer this Koan (Buddhist Conundrum?),
In the Hands of Destiny
A great Japanese warrior named Nobunaga decided to attack the enemy although he had only one-tenth the number of men the opposition commanded. He knew that he would win, but his soldiers were in doubt.
On the way he stopped at a Shinto shrine and told his men: “After I visit the shrine I will toss a coin. If heads comes, we will win; if tails, we will lose. Destiny holds us in her hand.”
Nobunaga entered the shrine and offered a silent prayer. He came forth and tossed a coin. Heads appeared. His soldiers were so eager to fight that they won their battle easily.
“No one can change the hand of destiny,” his attendant told him after the battle.
“Indeed not,” said Nobunaga, showing a coin which had been doubled, with heads facing either way.
Circa 1981. “Hunt said ,,,he expected interest rates to gradually begin rising early next year.”
From 15% to??,
https://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/Long-Term.png
Ha! “Harmonized Scrubbed Materiality” is it? Well, I’ll be baffled with bull shit!
Warning; When bureaucrats go into intense semantics mode, all logic is futile. Just go with the flow until the water is almost to the gunn’ls, then abandon ship. Like the bureaucrat.
I’m going to be watching real wages overall, and the final GDP print for the second quarter. Any improvement in the former, and a positive print on the latter, and I’m reshuffling. Some $ trillion is going to ignite this thing like a skyrocket.
Not a good idea to be in securities about then. At least any farther out in duration than a year or two.
“Policy makers have kept the benchmark interest rate near zero for five years and used bond purchases to hold down long-term borrowing costs, expanding their balance sheet to a record $4.38 trillion in the process.”
Why is it, $4.38 trillion sounds so insignificant in comparison to all debt, public and private, to include unfunded pension and entitlement liabilities and hundreds of $ trillions in assorted derivatives instruments? Does anyone but me find that $4.38 T number a joke? And certainly, it contributes to the reason the Fed will not be audited anytime soon.
And since when are Republicans any less spendthrift than Democrats? Oh, but I’m sure if one suggested Con-gress take the Fed’s place as creator of the currency, reds and blues alike would offer standing ovation.
Best get the QE Bazooka fired up, Janet. Or be roasted by your pals on Capital Hill. Of course, in the end, the Fed will take the hit, ironically, for falling behind in printing everything congress spends.
The above scary headlines seem to come from MSM itself. What would a contrarian do?
And, no, I wouldn’t expect the Fed to throw it’s hands up and let all of it’s doings go up in smoke. To the contrary, we haven’t begun to imagine what these psychos are capable of.
We haven’t even progressed through the forced replacement of all autos with, say, over 20 k miles on the odometer. Or mandatory demolition of empty housing units older than 20 years. Or across the board $30k “Tax Rebates” or full interest deduction on charge card debt, or a repave of every road in the nation, and new bridges to boot. Or,,,,,,
What ever it takes to destroy all value left in the currency.
Boogaloo,
“When I go into business selling pitchforks, it’s gonna be strictly cash only.”
Take four silver quarters for one?
Cantankerous,
If the deflationary collapse materializes, it will be amidst a paper flurry (cash) that will block the sun. Any true deflation will be measured in terms of barter involving trades of real things for other real things. This cash, unless printed with mosquito repellant ink, will be of no use to anyone.
At the point that even the repellant value has lost it’s allure, the Fed, or whatever passes for the keeper of the public till at that time, will have no choice but to abandon the old and replace it with something that can be marked to the shadow markets that will have replaced the fictitious ones.
But, that cash if held for multiple generations, will come back into value someday. I mean, what’s a Continental Dollar, in good condition worth today to a collector?
Which brings to mind a way to put a bit of a floor under the currency! Use ink that contains hemorrhoid relief compounds, and float the buck against TP, ’cause that’s going to become the universal application for it.
If one could only put a “timeline” through the endless loop, not depicting it like a clock face, and are we at 12 o’clock, or say 3:45? Or maybe 16:30 on a 24 hour clock? Round and round like “Groundhog Day.”
Circular vs. Linear?
Problem>Solution>Problem…. Rather than, New Problem>New Solution etc.
Sometime in the not too distant future, the cogs will be found to be humming right along, using hardly a drop of oil. Just as modes of transportation today are moving along now with nary a single bale of hay.
When the time is right, and the old way becomes uncomfortable enough, a new solution will appear. This is only a chuck hole on a Linear path into the unknown.
Not saying we won’t go through periods of Luddite domination, like now, delaying progress. But not many textiles are hand woven these days, in spite of a clique of radicals who certainly had all the answers, attempting to seize control of the power of the State to try and prove their misconceptions were’t mistaken.
Final thought. Spent the day yesterday on the blue Pacific in a small boat. Swell was running around 10 feet at 12 seconds. I thought to myself, how effortlessly this water lifts and drops this 2 tons of mass. And it does so every 12 seconds. Imagine the cyclical power generated by all the swells over two thirds of the worlds surface? Now imagine the more ‘secular’ power generated by the tides lifting and lowering all this by 5 or 6 feet, twice a day?
Therein lies a New Solution, as soon as we inevitably escape the “geological-time-split-second-that-is oil-formation-and-consumption” loop. Just a matter of refining some logistics.
Gonna happen, like it or not.
Speed up, step aside, but get the hell out of the way.
Spot the long term trend in this chart;
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/djia1900.html
Still want to short the Fed?
OK, maybe it’s currency!
It ain’t right, but it is what it is. This chart is as much about devaluation as it is enablement. Prolly one in the same?
What I see here is, there can be default and a relinquishment of power, or there can be a slow, steady devaluation, increasing nominal “wealth” (A necessary ingredient to maintaining the illusion) and dilution of debt, or at least postponement of it’s eventual maturity.
Remember, it’s their currency (Money?) we are dealing with now, not the peoples, so it is worth whatever they say it is. That said, one can fight the Fed, or find ways to survive within it’s realm until, maybe tomorrow, maybe 70 years from now, it makes a fatal mistake and self destructs.
Of course, in light of any substantial questioning of the Wizards competence , there is always the possibility of an Executive Order originating from the Fed’s Oval Office subsidiary, requiring the surrender of all street clothes for Mao Pajamas,
I dunno, how far afield, really, can the most astute Brandon Smith be here? His words sure could dovetail with what’s visible at this point;
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-03/cloward-piven-strategy-being-used-destroy-america
“How does Yellen look at herself in the mirror? I know I couldn’t.”
To a psychopath, any ends justify the means. Yellen will never stoop so low as subject herself to the damage and suffering she is party to, any more than the President will don latex gloves and cleanup the mess his drones make,,,
,,,as the Marquis tosses a few coins to Gaspard, actually satisfied that the death of a child has been reimbursed.
OK, Tale of two Cities was only a novel, but what of the human events on which it was based?
Guess we might see works like “This Perfect Day” and “Alongside Night” as prophesy, yet, someday?
We are getting closer to the time when some patriots might need to reaffirm The Bill of Rights and neutralize some tyrants. Finance didn’t do this all on its own.
It needed enablers. Enablers who granted their government consent to do their bidding. The very raw material of tyranny.
Meanwhile, enjoy the 4Th. The concept was good. The problem is the vigilance wasn’t kept.
That “Labor Force Participation Rate” chart up there kinda resembles a Baby Boomer Pig moving through a Python. Also helps explain the rapid growth in Health Care Industries.
All said, on forecasting Human Action, which is really what unfettered Free Market Economics is;
“Prophesy is a good line of business, but it is full of risks.”
Mark TwainBut of course, the soothsayers at the IMF saw all this coming? OK, in hind sight!
On Micro-Managed Economies;
“The key to being a good manager is keeping the people who hate you away from those who are still undecided.”
Casey StengalOn the travel thing, every room in the county is booked for the weekend. Tried to reserve one for a friend. First time it’s happened since around 2007.
“The Communist party as a bunch of desperate sorcerer’s apprentices.”
Is the Fed any different? And yes, Bill Bonner, the Fed can play this game until all are so dependent on it, they will insist it become normal.
These power mad psychos don’t care about the future. That’s someone else’s problem. They plan to play this out and be safe in their bunkers well before it flames out.
Brave New World we have here.
Ken,
As stated, it all takes place on the margin, and some “incident” in the ME could sure disrupt flows enough that they take years to stabilize. For that matter, another war could consume all marginal production in short order.
They run on diesel. Lots of it. In fact, it takes ever increasing quantities of oil to defend supplies of it. Who knows, maybe even some day 1.1 barrels to secure 1, using political logic.
Ask for a .gov solution, and it will turn to it’s military, who’s job it is to kill people and break things. Very energy inefficient.
Herd behavior and “Conventional” Economics, you say?
How about Unconventional Economics?
Dated, but timeless;
On “Predictable” Black Swans, may I point out “Tail Risk” and other Standard Deviation variances.
Of course, most economists will tweak their predictions after the fact, to match the event as closely as possible.
Otherwise, of what use are they? Economists, that is. On the other hand,,,if ya lined ’em all up from here to the moon, a conclusion still wouldn’t be reached anyway, so?
Stagflation? Not Deflation?
Word smithery aside, I read a book warning of all this back in 1979 that used terms such as Deflationary Depression and Inflationary Depression, the latter being the most devastating. Appropriate definitions, I think.
That was what first drew my attention to the fiat monetary system we have had since the dropping of the gold standard. The writer was (is?) very familiar with the Austrian School, and was certainly ahead of his time in 1979.
He also wrote a news letter, but had some bad calls over the years because he didn’t understand how far governments would go in preventing deflations. Such as actually replacing free markets with direct intervention, as now.
I understand there is an updated version, but the original is classic. Interestingly, this author was called a nutter and lunatic back then.
So, how many politicians will be elected on a promise of extreme austerity, and a halving of the present standard of living for all who are not in government or in industries favored by government?
How many will be elected on a platform of print, print, print until the debt is gone, besides, we owe it to ourselves, and in the long run, we’re all dead?
Either the bullet is bitten, and default is allowed to take place, of all excessive debt, public and private, or the dollar is killed, putting all debt denominated in it to rest.
Only two ways out of this, and one just won’t happen, because it isn’t “political career” sustainable.
Well said, Boogaloo. With the buck no longer tied to any commodity, deflation is impossible. In fact, it is rapidly losing it’s last anchor, to a consumable commodity, oil, which couldn’t function as money anyway, because it is burned.
The rest of the world is getting weary of the dollar, and is growing tired of demands made by the Prince’s in Washington, DC.
Bernanke was just another apparatchik in the order of International Social Engineers, but he was right in his declaration that “Deflation can’t happen here”,,,but failed to qualify that with “as long as there is a Federal Reserve Bank.”
When the Fed folds, that will be the turning point.
I think we may be entering that time in the cycle to dump cash and buy tangibles again. Even “Dove Man” Bullard is making Hawk sounds at the Fed. Does he see a bond vigilante lurking in the bushes? Or maybe a dash for liquidity in China? Japan? One resulting in a T-paper sell off? Or, for that matter, simply a reduction in purchases?
It’s getting interesting, as the plot thickens. Especially now that folks are waking up to the fact that .gov statistics have always been manipulated to some degree, especially in election years, mid term or otherwise.
On “confidence” I’m confident of one thing. The dollar will be devalued. Heck, it’s devaluation is accelerating right now.
“See, I think that perhaps the longer we insist on pretending this is our future, not our past”
My take on it is, not only can we not go back, I see it all as Evolution. Can’t really be stopped, and it can indeed be harsh at times. Entire species can be wiped out by it’s wrath. Sort of natures version of Joe Schumpeter’s “Creative Destruction.”
And Man is not immune.
Maybe the past wasn’t what we thought? Since “The Big One,” (Great Depression) and the conglomeration and control of media, a good portion of the last 80 years, media have been subject to authoritarian filtering of information. An Ed Bernays era, if you will.
Add constant revisionism, and the past becomes questionable. Enter the Internet Revolution, and even more questions arise re; what we think we know of history. An example? Would an intervention into Syria have been preventable in 1939? Don’t think so. We most likely would have been well entrenched there before the public had been privy to the info.
On sameness, alikeness, conformity and regimentation, these are symptoms of
collectivism. Variety requires a strong sense of individualism, something bureaucracy fears like a vampire fears garlic. Knowledge of the average human’s fear of stepping out of line is taken advantage of by political classes.And, as always, history is written by assorted victors, military and ideological, no?
Perhaps the World after the 30’s debacle really never regained it’s bearing. Maybe it’s institutions have been on a sort of life support ever since the rout? Might be what made the mass destruction and carnage of WWII even possible. Korea? Vietnam? Iraq? Afghanistan?
One diversion after another, to keep the game going another little while? And now, machinations becoming evident of another attempt at proving the “Broken Window Fallacy” false, OD Green equipment is piling up in military depots everywhere. Just need to refine
the consensus building apparatus a tad, and all this dangerous, anti social, liberty, rugged individualism talk will yield to nationalism and we can get the show on the road.Fear of a Market Event, as per the “Hedge?” Need a “Market” for that to be relevant, but.
OK, disclaimer, I’m dabbling in the VIX. Saves $4.50 a gallon gas up to the Indian Casino, besides, how else to participate in the sport, given;
“Whether this ‘event’ is a crash or melt-up is historically unclear ”
No shit? You mean the indices will fluctuate?
Then;
Yes, with guaranteed dilution of the value of government money, the trend will certainly be higher lows and higher highs over the long term. I guess volatility is the only speculative game in town. A bet, per se, on the perception of the firmness of the Feds grip on the control levers at any point in time?
And it really is just a game, right?
Can’t help but wonder sometimes if deregulation wasn’t the problem here as much as was protection from failure of the scammers. Had they been allowed to fail, the next generation would have a precedent. What’s Moral Hazard again?
There isn’t much “regulation” in the underground sectors, yet they function. Of course, so do most performers who work without a net.
Really, what is QE, if not exemption from the efficiencies of Creative Destruction?
Hussman,,,” even in the event quantitative easing becomes a more frequent policy”
It has been all along, and likely will be until the dollar is killed. Waiting for fundamentals to return at this point is waiting for Godot.
One either missed the ride or didn’t. Wishing for justice in a sea of corruption is a fools errand. And if history is any indication, holding currency isn’t a very good idea either.
Interesting, though, the 7 year time frame meme first mentioned by Grantham. Negative discounted return and all. I have faith the Fed will bump that up to the 7 or 8 percent historical numbers “expected” by the actuaries of finance. At least “nominally.” 😉
Makes everyone feel better.
Meanwhile, how are the grocery, fuel, utility, rent and healthcare budgets holding up? Are they being cancelled by the drop in HD TV prices?
As the Worlds Governments conspire against the People of the World, we are surprised?
Maintenance of power trumps the well being of constituencies every time.
Would we expect anything less than war as a means of maintaining political power on the part of the world’s ruling elite?
Very predictable, to say the least. And next go ’round, the US powers won’t risk the backlash they were given in their Syrian debacle. No, the next time an epic false flag will be choreographed to generate overwhelming maniacal public support.
The end result, though foggy at best, will, in addition to reassertion of government control over it’s subjects, eliminate a vast portion of the earth’s perceived “overpopulation” problem.
Still, everywhere, I hear cries for leaders to “Do More.” WTF, over?
