Professorlocknload
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Yeah, Ken,
That oil price decline, in my view, has more to do with demand destruction than supply increase. What’s your take?
For sure, the money chasing new drilling isn’t as much coming from profits, as it is Wall Street speculation.
In short, liars selling holes in the ground to green horns.
It’s an “Old West” kinda thang.
On Ferguson, that has now become a racially charged political football. Might be a wise decision on Obama’s part not to jump in until some dust settles.
From a “Justice” standpoint, well, he did send his top Law Dog in. For whatever that’s worth.
So many mistakes were made in the handling of that mess from the very start, any resolution that could satisfy all parties is nigh impossible now. It will become the stuff of shouting matches between Red and Blue media pundits for the duration of this election cycle.
ps; Distinctions must be made as to the jurisdiction of law enforcement here. States Rights vs Federal Intervention. Sending Feds in could turn this into a Constitutional Crisis. That could stir up some serious issues!
All this talk of rate increases is Jawboning. Doesn’t cost ’em anything to try and instill a sense of “You better get out there and buy houses and cars now before rates rise and you will be left behind for a generation.”
Worked fine back when the huge Demographic Curve that was the Baby Boomers was in it’s maximum spending years, and only knew “Get it while you can, before someone else beats you to it.”
What the Fed doesn’t understand here is, that massive consumer contingent is now entering it’s frugal, conservative, downsizing, saving for the old folks years,,,in a big way, in big debt, at around 10,000 of them per day. That, coupled with other “Fourth Turning” elements, and the fact monetary authorities have so grossly distorted price discovery function.
Jawboning threats of interest rate increases is nothing but Fed PsyOps. As rapier states above, they can’t set or raise rates up through the duration curve. They can only influence them from the very short end. As usual, the credit is available in spades. The Fed is pushing on a string,,,hard. Or, liken it to winding up a Giant Jack in the Box.
Their BS sessions are efforts to trigger the lid and get Jack to jump out of the box,,,,but the lid is stuck, and the spring is wound tighter and tighter,,,until,,,someday,,,BAM! Monetary Jack will jump so high, so quick, money will fall from the heavens for weeks, ultimately destroying the currency, and the debt that is denominated in it, resetting the system.
Our children will thusly be set free, and it all starts over,,,of course with an entirely different political complexion.
That’s my story, until someone can show me why the natural evolution in debt destruction will somehow be different this time, and we will become the first nation ever, with an unbacked fiat currency, brought down by deflation, and debt will be allowed to be defaulted on in that way. I mean, why would the Fed do that? Knowing it has a monopoly on money now, with no cost of creation?/
On Ferguson, as I said somewhere, maybe not here,,, in the end, now that Ferguson has become political, we’ll know no more than we know about MH17 when the dust settles.
Likely, the Red Team will blame the protesters and Brown, the Blue Team the police. It is, after all, an election year.
Must patronize and polarize, or die!
Only victim, as usual, will be the truth.
Government woven webs?
Let me put this in rant form,,,full retard;
Keep the wheels of war spinning, or Silicon Valley, Los Angeles and Chicago will go Detroit. Along with the incumbent pols and their financiers. It’s all now a matter of national security.
Location and moral objectives are of no consequence anymore. Just keep using up and breaking military machinery and replacing it, and all will be well. The war racket is in self perpetuation mode now. Stand back and let ‘er rip!
Every gallon of fuel burned and every bomb crater adds to GDP, so bomb, bomb, bomb,,,burn, burn ,burn…
Break every window in the world, and hire millions of new glaziers to replace them, then break ’em again.
Burn the ghetto’s and rebuild them twice as big. Level Detroit and Lansing and build houses and shopping malls until they out number people 2 to 1.
Erect bridges from New York to London and from San Francisco to Fukushima, then on to Nepal.
Pay everyone on earth a citizen wage of $50,000 a year. Raise the minimum wage to $50 an hour to compete. Get the price of a meal up to $250 and a pair of socks to $89.95. GDP will go exponential. Maybe even to Mars.
Convert the entire world to one big happy Keynesian Utopian Amusement Park with money fountains and root beer waterfalls.
Then, see if that accomplishes as much as in Iraq.
The mentality;
“The United States can pay any debt it has because we can always print money to do that. So there is zero probability of default.” Alan Greenspan
https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntharvey/2012/09/10/impossible-to-default/
That said, Pension obligations could be split, with the Fed offering inside information to “Preferred” entities, such as government pensions, moving them into TIPS and short duration Treasuries, then pulling the plug on private pensions through interest rate rises.
Any organization as powerful as the Fed is by it’s political nature, corrupt. Hell, it’s chief is appointed by a partisan politician, so it will always do the power structure’s bidding.
I don’t see any possibility of a wholesale default, as much as I do a mass separation of Fed (government) selected winners and losers.
In this Brave New World, the ends now justify any means. Expect to be surprised.
For sure, I am taking notice of where Military, Federal, State and Local Government pensions are allocated, and considering following suit. The Fed won’t let it’s Comrades down. It can’t, and still maintain it’s grip.
To wit, the passing down of para- military equipment to the lowest echelons of the Statist apparatus. Add, the reflation of Real Estate to double property tax revenues with which to finance operations such as what are going on in Ferguson.
Of course, in the end, the Fed/Treasury could circumvent market function all together, and simply originate all new money through government channels. I think they liked what they saw in the old Soviet Union, and in today’s China.
“When it comes to a bilateral relationship with a sovereign country and the violation of its immunities, it is necessary for the executive branch to intervene,” Capitanich said. “The executive has a monopoly on relations with other countries.”
So, the Executive should trump Contract Law?
And where would that lead? In the Executive trumping all Rule of Law?
Brave New World we have here.
” Citizens Income?”
A Central Bankers dream. The cost of living would go up by the equivalent of the unproductive increase in income. Yellen, meet Marx.
And of course, no one would need to pay for the loss in productivity. Money is free, after all.
And if, say, $36 k a year is “equitable” in eliminating poverty, why not $90 k a year? Or, how about cost of living increases of 10% a year, 20% in election years?
All things being equal, I sure hope the price of mandatory Mao Pajamas doesn’t go up, as well.
Ah, the lure of “utopia” right here on earth marches on. It just wasn’t done right, down through time, but modern politicians possess the secret.
Not too sure the US hasn’t won some wars these last 6 decades or so. Military transports have just been replaced by Coca Cola delivery trucks, and there seems to be a lot of Intel inside Vietnam and other places these days.
And one might also wonder if military victory is less desirable to the power structure, than is keeping the commerce of war flowing, like cash flow, through the rackets. Defeat made up for by volume, as it were?
On the end user cost of oil, a gallon of gas still costs a silver quarter in these parts. Same as always. The dollar, on the other hand is sure cheaper.
I don’t believe there is a cohesive “world community,” as most Nation States tend to line up according to their self interest, and not so much morality.
But, if/when the majority lean away from the US, isolating it, it will come out of it’s dilemma like a cornered Wombat.
As I’ve said, it won’t be a good idea to be down range of that.
“I don’t understand what Obama is up to. He looks grey, haggard and isolated.”
Neither does he understand what he is up to. Only his creators know. Whenever question gets to close, he is sent to the links.
Only “unquestionable” war can save western power structures at this point.
Rally round the flag,,,beat back the Hun,,,God is on our side,,,loose lips sink ships,,,love it or leave it,,,you’re either with us ‘er agin’ us,,,buy war bonds,,,let’s get the children involved;
“How long before we send tropps back in? Bombing desert sand has never proven to be a great idea.”
I doubt troops are going back in anytime soon. At least in any quantity. It’s much more politically palatable to carpet bomb, and call the resulting 99 to 1 civilian casualties “Collateral Damage,” than to continue to make excuses for plane loads of flag draped coffins to the public.
Of course, media enablers will continue to protect their publics from graphic photos of the carnage, as allowing it to be depicted would be in such poor taste ;-(
At this point, any questions will be directed to the “Need to Know” department. Any answers, of course, will be based on what it want’s you to hear.
Such is the way of “organized” government, granted full consent.
Some homemade perspective from my perch.
Something tells me this 1%, however that is categorized, have other options at their disposal than “watering” at the public trough. That aside, worrying about economic outcomes associated with an, as yet, remotely potential world wide plague seems premature at this juncture. Not that a short position in a pharmaceutical ETF wouldn’t be warranted, for other reasons.
In my mind, with a couple patients now being treated in the US, all concerned eyes should be focused on their locations, and whether the disease remains contained there. At least as a guide to the contagious characteristics of it.
Another consideration might be, how many months or years were these two health professionals directly exposed to this virus, before becoming infected? How many others have been, and are being exposed on a daily basis, but have not been infected?
Might also factor in general ignorance among the population in a region where HIV and other preventable maladies have run rampant. I mean, some of these people still patronize witch doctors, for crick! Drinking the blood of the dead???
In short, it might be better to turn concern more toward things that are nearer possible, like death by cop, or by rogue Prius that we couldn’t hear coming, while crossing the street.
And, if economics is still of importance in the grand scheme, shouldn’t we ruminate a bit more on all the life altering consequences possible in a meltdown there, in spite of Ebola and Obama and Draghi, and Singer, and the ‘Evitas’ of Argentina?
Perceived crisis vs. Real?
The above said, I would still short Inter-“national” solutions to any of this. Contraire, I’d bet on anointed Princes making it all worse.
Ebola has displaced much media space formerly allocated to political hot potatoes like immigration, Ukraine and Iraq. But then, what ” good” crisis will be allowed to go to waste? Certainly, some embellishment of severity of threat will be forthcoming, this election year.
Myself, I’ll be watching the single most important indicator, and the one least understood by folks. Exponentials. If any filtered info on such can be believed.
That, and when I see quarantine barriers being erected down at the local hospital, then I’ll be fast formulating some alternate plans.
Shhh,,, don’t tell “Investment Professionals,” but;
“As betting at the race ring adds neither strength nor speed to the horse, so the exchange of shares in the stock market adds no capital to business, no increase in the production and no purchasing power to the market.” Henry Ford
As Finance really has become no more than a net cost of, and burden on, doing business.
Journalism as political infomercial. These hacks want so much to believe in their “Princes”, that they become boosters, even unpaid ones. Yes, I imagine many would hope their bias will grant them special privilege and exclusive rights of access to the halls of power, but most still don’t want to admit their faith has been betrayed. So they continue to apologize for those they themselves placed on the throne.
To add, divide and conquer is becoming mainstream here in the FSA as well. To wit, immigration now equates to race. How convenient on the part of our leadership.
Unfortunately, scorched earth is where this all ends. Not much any of us can do, but take a side and accelerate the process, or stand back and try not to get any on us.
These narcissists are beyond grasping the human toll of their actions. They think of Ukraine as a chess board. Nothing more.
My take on Ukraine, in a nutshell, is all the various power structures within it are East/West props. One must look to Washington DC and Moscow to understand who is pulling the strings of the actors there.
Will the K St lobbyists outlast the Russian oligarchy? Or, most likely, when costs close in on potential return, will a deal be agreed upon where both entities profit at the expense of all others? Like in present day Afghanistan?
For sure, as assorted pipelines are completed around it, Ukraine’s importance will diminish somewhat, and some new battleground will be found to keep the wheels of MIC commerce spinning within the Super Powers.
That’s the Macro, IMO. Delving into the Micro only subjects one to the influence of propaganda at this point.
As an aside, back in my military days I found myself in the presence of an Infantry Strategist over beers one evening. Several of us were arguing the justice/injustice, as well as other reasons, for undeclared brush fire wars.
At the end of the discussion, this officer chimed in with (paraphrase, been a long time)
‘ These offensive interventions begin for two reasons. Political gain, and as perpetual live fire training programs in order to maintain a state of military readiness.’Logic and Justice have nothing to do with it.
@ gravity,
NATO can no more afford to expel it’s Sugar Daddy, than can the UN. But, of course, both exist to serve their masters.
“should rates spike on growth/inflation concern, the concurrent equity selloff will once again push rates lower, and so on ad inf. Ain’t central planning grand?”
Folks are stuck on thinking Market Based rather than State Controlled Economies.
It’s over. We aren’t going back.
That said, it’s not a good idea to underestimate the lengths Empire will go to, to stay Empire.
Another marginal process that is taking place is falling demand. And though the article linked below projects rising demand from developing nations, I believe it’s writers are using past economic performance as a misplaced guide to future expectations 😉
Unless, of course, we should expect 10% growth rates among China and friends to continue from here?
Oh, just one wild card in my prognostication above. Big War. If that happens, we will no longer be privy to any economic information, only BS stats. In the interest of national defense, mind ya.
“which lowered the inflation-adjusted net worth from $87,992 to $56,335 (a loss of $31,657 per household), meant, assuming 120 million US households, that some $3.8 trillion in wealth went up in air.”
No, wait,,,what? I thought there was no inflation? But, if the numbers had been adjusted for deflation, then,,,well, it gets confusing.
Now, I’ll venture, just as GDP “grew” at the reported 7% from Q-1, in aggregate, wages will soon increase by 7-8%, as well. Certainly before the 2016 elections. That should put all this deflation nonsense to rest.
Wages are always lagging in the devaluation process. Always! By the time the new money trickles down to the bottom, it has completed it’s mission, and is mopped up by interest rate increases.
Nothing new here, just ever wilder interventionist gyrations, requiring longer periods of adjustment.
Interesting, that 4% GDP report was just what I expected. That allows room to revise it down to the Monetarists magic 3% with a couple basis points to spare. I’ll give ’em a revision to 3.65, for them to maintain a bit of plausible deniability in their reporting antics.
Bottom line, all the 50th percentile wait patiently for the reset, as usual. Nothing else for them to do now. They missed the boat on Au, Ag, Junk paper and the S&P 500 and soon Real Estate. So, adjusted for reported inflation, they pay the banks negative % to store their depreciating cash. Can’t imagine that cash staying in those accounts if the truth was discovered, that the cost of living is really increasing by closer to 7%. Then again, fear makes folks do strange things.
The cycle won’t be broken until the Fed is. Of course, all of it’s green paper then goes down with it.
“I wish a buck was still silver and a joint was a bad place to be.” Merle Haggard
Ha! The US has been “testing” live weapons systems on an almost daily basis in Iraq and Afghanistan for over a decade now. And I would venture a guess some Made in USA labels might be found on a few ordinance fragments in Gaza, as well.
So?
Is that against the, uhh,,,law? Will citations be issued, and notices to appear in municipal court?
I think the problem here is that not enough voters/pundits have been on the receiving end of the flawed philosophies of war.
They somehow attempt to assign some sort of logic and reason to it’s inherent chaos.
Americans as fools? Well, what other animal finances an energy consuming McMansion for 30 years, buys a depreciating $65,000 SUV which gobbles $4 gas, on credit, while dumping any residual left over into Netflix, Amazon and Facebook backed paper?
Or, for the “conservative,” piling into Junk Bonds like they are the Holy Grail.
All while the World goes haywire?
Yup, definitely there is some old time religion coming down the pike.
Humm,,,in a Proxy War between East and West, what region separates the two? Should I rephrase that to ‘What, for the most part, unarmed region?’
Certainly not the Middle East, which fights back.
If one could find a way to, it might be a good time to short European infrastructure. It’s total destruction, again, is long overdue. Europe will once more be the battleground in the struggle between the super powers.
It has to be that way because military aggression on either Russian or US soil would bring out the nukes, negating the usefulness of any preceived “win.”
When the elephants fight, the grass suffers. European grass.
Another interesting aspect in this, is the absolute faith Europeans have in the US ability to protect them forever. Europe will ALL be considered “periphery,” and disposable when the chips are down.
An armed household can defend itself. An unarmed one must call 911, or the UN, and sit and wait.
Seems to me, when the logical money figures this out, it will run, not walk, out of the Euro, leaving a substantial enough vacuum that even evil money can’t hope to fill.
Oh, but won’t the $50 billion Yukos settlement keep the lights on a little longer? Sure, check’s in the mail.
Ilargi,
Of course this is all being directed from Moscow and Washington DC. It’s a Proxy War. Holland, Ukraine, Malaysia or Katmandu are irrelevant. The crash site has already been picked over by the “appropriate” international intelligence agency “forensics” experts.
What’s left is “collateral damage.” Sad, but it’s the way of the World.
Atta boy! Use the Kangaroo Court approach to try and legitimize the never ending flow of propaganda.
When will the US ever butt out of European affairs and simply leave them on their own, to sink or swim? If their systems are viable, they will do well. If not, a bit of creative destruction is in order.
Oh well, off to the “Shores of Tripoli” we go, not to rest until it’s all a smoldering ruin.
Unfortunately, from here on, pretty much any scenario presented by outsiders will be dismissed as conjecture and/ or conspiracy theory. In other words, moot.
The establishment will have the last word.
“What difference does it make”. Hillary Clinton
Ilargi,
“The US can’t wage a physical war against Russia, it wouldn’t dare.”
Though I appreciate your faith in the US Government’s ability to exercise constraint in that category, I beg to differ.
Everything US Foreign Policy touches turns to shit. It’s just a given now.
Everything US Economic Policy touches becomes ever more dependent on more debt folly.
Everything US Entitlement/Social Policy touches creates more poverty and reliance upon systems that can’t be sustained.
So, the only real “Growth” taking place is in all of the above. Any bets on how this ends?
@ DS,
Zuesse Conclusion,
“Without accountability, there can only be dictatorship. America must now choose whether to restore its democracy, for we have certainly lost it.”
Only one way that will happen. Nourishing the Tree of Liberty too will be ugly. But, as a double edged sword, one could believe, again, that the ends justify the means, maybe?
I mention that because casting pre screened ballots is no longer effective. Just as casting ballots would not have freed the Colonists from the the clutches of England.
On FDR and “Progressivism,” he progressed us right into war as a means of diverting attention from his bungling of the Great Depression. It’s just that the propaganda was so effective, he is considered a hero to this day. That, and the fact that right or wrong, the victors write the history.
“People tend to pay attention to the prices of things they buy all the time, like gasoline, milk and meat.”
Oh, yeah, I get it,,,a person is hungry because he’s out of money, except for that last cup of yogurt in the fridge, so he should concentrate more on the price of a new fridge. Makes sense, considering the source.
Excellent work, Ilargi!
Want a government powerful enough to give you everything you want, including protection from any threat of harm? Then be prepared to give to it everything you have, including your life.
Most folks simply do not understand the nature of concentrated power. With these psychos, all ends justify any means. 298 victims of their “means,” other than providing an opportunity for some political grandstanding, are of no more significance to them than were the lives of 6 million Jews, 3 million Ukrainians, massive civilian casualties in Dresden, Nagasaki or Hiroshima.
They will gladly kill their own enablers as well. Rein in your governments and cut them down to such a minute size so as to be of no use to any special interest that would use them against you, or humanity in general.
Or, keep asking for their protection, until they finally decide it’s best to simply destroy you to prevent others from harming you.
Ask yourself, how many politicians did you see gathering up the pieces of flesh in the aftermath of their deeds there in that killing field in Ukraine? Even their pet media censored photos of the carnage, by the time western “Journalism” reprocessed information relating to the event, in order to make it more “palatable” for the “uninitiated.”
Maybe bill board sized color glossy images of this sort of thing, posted on the streets, would be more useful in firing up constituencies. Is it even possible? Or are we still in the dark ages of the Vietnam War, where a simple body count meter became routine on the 6 O’Clock news every evening.
No blood, no guts, no gore,,,just a little meter up in the corner of the TV screen. So on and on it went. 58,000 Americans and 1,000,000 Vietnamese all slaughtered in the shadow of a couple flags, all tucked behind an FCC regulated media firewall.
“200 enemy killed today, and only 23 GI’s” they gloated. I guess that makes us the winner.
