Nov 062018

Elio Ciol Via Portica, Assisi 1958


Pollsters were so wrong in 2016 you’d think they would have changed jobs by now. Yeah, sure. We remember the 97% prediction for a Hillary win, right? And the 92% from the New York Times? Happy days. Now we have the same suspects plying their usual trade again. As if nothing has changed. And that’s a bit of an issue. It would be beneficial if pollsters asked themselves why they got 2016 so wrong, but since there’s been little to no consequence for their livelihoods, they haven’t.

Because of the frenzy whipped out over today’s midterms, with almost everyone declaring this the most important midterms, if not elections, of their lifetimes, more people have participated in early voting, and far more than usual have expressed their intention to go vote.

And so the pollsters look at that and apply their age-old models to it. More people voting is good for the Democrats, as is more early voting, according to them, and so is more young people voting. Ditto for black people, Hispanics. Because that’s how it’s always been. And it’s easier that way than to actually go talk to people about their votes, and the reasons behind these votes.

But it’s as if Trump never happened in 2016, when his performance made that entire polling industry look like useless fools. How about if Trump’s rallies and tweets are a major reason why more Americans, and more young Americans, will go and vote? Certainly doesn’t sound crazy.

Update: after I wrote the above last night, first thing in the morning came this graph from NBC. I feel at least partly vindicated.



The Democrats and their media allies have a bit of a Catch-22 going on. They want to sound enthusiastic and confident about the midterms, but not so much that it will make potential voters stay away. It doesn’t seem to work: they again sound like they got it in the bag.

Moreover, their entire schtick is based on one thing only: Trump. Not being Trump is supposed to be their ticket to ride. They don’t actually have programs or policies, at least not on a national level. They’re simply betting on being able to whip up enough hatred of the Donald.

In a nation as polarized as America is these days, that is both extremely easy and extremely hard. Easy, because the one half of Americans who already despise the man read and see that part of the media that cultivates that hatred from dusk till dawn every single day.

Hard, because there are very few people left who are either on the fence or don’t hate the man, whose opinions could be changed by more of the same kind of ‘reporting’. The chips are down, the lines have been drawn.

If only the MSM could report on terrible economic numbers on top of labeling Trump a racist, misogynist, aniti-Semite, fascist. But the economy -on the surface- is doing fine, and it’s that, stupid. For many Americans, including fence-sitters, that’s what it’s all about.

One of the first things I read yesterday was a headline that said Hillary is still the Democrats’ best bet for 2020. I’m going to have to doubt that there’s a better illustration of what’s ailing the Democrats.

Even as there’s the issue of Schumer, Pelosi, Feinstein, Wasserman-Schultz and Waters still leading that party, while their only challengers insist on calling themselves ‘socialists’, which is to one’s election chances in America what a wooden stake is to a vampire’s odds of survival.


And they would still win by a wide margin if not for Trump. Because the Republicans have the exact same issues. They too are ruled by a bunch of sociopath pensioners who can’t and won’t let go of the thrill of power and the millions slipped to them under the table by banks and insurers and gunmakers.

There’s only one way for the nation to prevent being run by the cast of Cocoon, and that is Trump, and he’s 72 himself. A president has two terms, even if he’s under 50 years old, but Senators can stay forever even if they live to be 100. And changes to that are subject to decisions by that very same crew. It’s a bankrupt system in which voters can and do go bankrupt and politicians are all millionaires.

And yet the systems rolls out all it’s got to protect itself. But it’s gone overboard with that. There has been so much in the way of smear and allegations against Trump that turned out not be based on anything, that the MSM has muzzled itself, prevented itself from reaching anyone other than those who are already in their camp.

That’s what you get for confusing news and opinion. Of course it’s tempting, because it attracted so many viewers and readers, and so much money, but in the end, the WaPo, NYT and CNN have voluntarily given up access to half of America, and with them the Democrats have too. Down the line, that will prove to be a very costly ‘business model’.


In 2015 I predicted Trump would win the presidential elections. not based on his qualities so much, but the lack of qualities on Hillary’s side. This time I don’t want to predict the outcome of the midterms, but I just can’t see the Democrats win, let alone bigly, because they have nothing to offer other than not being the man responsible for more jobs and -so far- slightly, slowly higher wages.

If the Democrats do take the House, they can be expected to go after Trump and his administration, with more investigations in the vein of the Mueller one, endlessly protracted innuendo that doesn’t go anywhere. The polarization might well make America a de facto ungovernable country. If they take the Senate as well, Trump may be a lame duck, and impeachment talk will rear its ugly head again.

If the Republicans maintain control of both House and Senate, they will demand thorough investigations of the Mueller files and much more, like the Kavanaugh accusations. Not a highly desirable thing either, because it will lead to even more polarization. But how much deeper can they dig themselves into their trenches?

Both the Democrats and the MSM have painted themselves into a tight corner. They should engage in a dialogue with Trump, but how do you do that after publicly bashing someone 24/7 for 2 years and change?

That all said, it’s obvious that it truly will be an important day today. The only good outcome, regardless of the vote, would be for everyone to sit down and talk to each other. But what are the odds of that?



Home Forums Trump vs the Midterms

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    Elio Ciol Via Portica, Assisi 1958   Pollsters were so wrong in 2016 you’d think they would have changed jobs by now. Yeah, sure. We remember the
    [See the full post at: Trump vs the Midterms]

    Dr. D

    Here’s a fresh turn: making fun of Trump for stuff he actually DID do.

    “The fawning over Trump nauseates me. Everyone screams jobs! and yet nobody pays attention to how bought. The latter is much more important than the former. Industry, innovation, productivity and actual balanced trade are how you make for durable job gains. Printing up 6.2% of the economy in new Treasury Debt to produce a 3% GDP print is how you go bankrupt since at this point every dollar of new Treasury issuance actually has a negative return. Trump did the latter and his taking “credit” for the outcome as somehow “good” is outright fraud.” –Denninger

    Not to mention the printing of $3T in 2 years has barely moved the dial on the economy. The real economy has only stopped declining. It’s not good. It’s certainly not the “best in history.”

    If we wanted to pile on, we’re dangerously escalating in NATO, cancelled the hard-won missile treaty, illegally weaponized space, and are still nice and deep in Yemen and Ukraine….and probably Syria and Libya too. But if winning elections means stopping the monopoly-corp and military feeding trough and backing away from the unlimited money-printing, the Dems won’t do it either.

    War kills and leverage kills too. That’s why the marching death cult that’s still in charge of the nation, from the top office to the janitor, won’t stop it.

    Putin is sitting there with Xi, his finger on the button, the moment we don’t come to our senses. Clock’s ticking, people.


    OK I don’t know why I feel I have to defend pollsters, yet they were not off by much regarding Hillary-Trump 2016. They had given Hillary a slight edge, and that was what actually happened. But being off by maybe 1%, and with the distribution of votes in the odd american electoral system, Trump ended up in the White House. That fairly minor error seems light to go charging with “so wrong in 2016 they would have changed jobs” or “entire polling industry look like useless fools”

    I’ll be frank and say I actually hope republicans hang on to as many seats as they can. This is the only way we can lay to rest the Russiagate hysteria and neverending threats of impeachment. I wish the Democrats would focus on Trump’s foreign policy team of certified neocon loons, Bolton, Haley, Pompeo threatening, blustering, antagonizing pretty much everyone on planet Earth.


    Dr. D

    I am with you on this. It used to be that a dollar in debt would get you 4$ in GDP growth. There were plenty of productive uses for debt back in the days. Then through the years this dollar in debt bought you 3$, then two, then one, and now there it gets you even less than that.

    Our economies are in worse shape than they appear. After years of supposed growth, pretty much all countries are still deep in deficits, and everyone only speaks of how the economy needs ever more stimulus just not to collapse.


    Catching up with my TAE backlog, I have to respond to your vanishing migrant link of to

    “A growing number of migrants have drowned, died in deserts or fallen prey to traffickers”
    The word you’re looking for is not ‘growing’, it’s ‘dwindling’. The number of migrant deaths on the Mediterranean went down from 5096 in 2016 to 3139 in 2017, and 2018 is on a pace to fall to 2400. This is due to policies (denounced by migrant defense NGO) in Libya, Italy, Turkey, Hungary by monsters such as Salvini or Orban to stem the flow of migrants. Fewer migrants crossed, fewer died, the difficult conditions in centers for migrants could at least stop deteriorating.

    “Is that double morals or no morals at all?”
    Policies resulting in fewer deaths look like morals to me.

    ““many of those who go missing are uncounted, including boatfuls [sic] of young Tunisians or Algerians”
    Yeah, in spite of an improvement in the last couple of years, there is a warning sign flashing yellow. Spain got itself a new cuddly, left-wing, humanitarian government welcoming refugees. As you could expect, the number of migrants responding to the call has been exploding (and the number of drowned migrants with it). In February 3844 migrants arrived in Spain, 7893 in April, 13188 in June, 15416 in October. We can expect the improvements in all categories to revert, and more “young Tunisians or Algerians” to vanish. Because indeed Algeria and Tunisia are among the countries that most migrants come from, along with the neighbouring country of Morocco, and Guinea, Mali, Côte d’Ivoire. All countries admitedly poor, but not oppressing their population.


    Trump doesn’t want the immigrants/caravan. Trump consider that all of those immigrants are blood sucking sub humans who don’t want to work for the elites for only starvation wages..

    V. Arnold

    That’s a pretty spot on sumation Ilargi.
    Nothing I can add…
    We here at the Hermitage ain’t going nowhere…

    Dr. D

    You seem to be conflating two things: Trump doesn’t want illegal immigrants. The U.S. takes in a MILLION immigrants a year, and that has not changed under Trump. They treat us like we’re a walled city like the Vatican, I mean, an ENTIRE major city per year: crikey, not enough?

    Both Democrats AND Republicans want illegals, the Democrats for voters, and the Republicans to devastate wages, and both have worked lockstep for 30 years.

    But it would be no sense to say that they want to bring in sub-humans, who will then steal resources like a parasite AND not do any work. They WANT them to work, destroy wages, the poor, the minorities, and the middle class, and then NOT collect social security, which ‘solves’ that demographic problem. That’s why neither side has any interest in fixing the problem, ever, even when it becomes astonishingly apparent, AND Trump harangues both sides of Congress saying he’ll sign any immigration law they put on his desk. Which they didn’t and won’t.

    So in Trump’s case, and being from NYC — the major point of entry and one of America’s most diverse and migrant cities — apparently he sees immigration as a good thing and happy to take a million a year, therefore has no issue with migrants or cultures. That’s not really taking them as sub-human. It’s pretty clear he got Mexico to arrange for asylum of the caravan, since Mexico has never cared nor offered before. That’s not exactly not caring what happens to them, as a real <i>name-your-slander-here </i>would joyfully shoot them at the border as well as internally, and ask the people to cheer. None of that is going on, despite constant claims of cattle cars and ovens. Seriously: some Hitler he turned out to be. Doing what Obama did, obeying the rulings of courts, reversing on deporting people, and killing gol-durned no one. I was promised Hitler, dammit! /s

    No, it’s just what it looks like: his base, and the only allies he has, have been annihilated, year after year for 30 years by that giant sucking sound in Wisconsin and Michigan, and as those policies have CLEARLY destroyed everyone and everything from Albany to Sacramento, his base has asked the policies to reverse, and go back to 1990 (1990!) when we had borders and trade. He is doing so, but the Globalists don’t like their free lunch of munching on the million opioid deaths of 90% of the counties of America to be interrupted, that they were getting rich on. Likewise, Trump’s base doesn’t like the 90% of Globalists that were killing them like dogs, then having the political parties laugh and mock them as Detroit and Akron were fed into ovens. “Aw, poor rednecks! They don’t like Detroit burning down and returning to a forest! They don’t like everyone they know dying of despair and drug use! Really, a guy growing rabbits in his living room in Flint is the oppressor, and we here in $1M house on 600 foot lot in San Francisco are the victims. Hahahahaha!” Yeah that don’t go over so well, and they still haven’t figured out that killing 72,000 people a year won’t be election-winning.

    The illegals? They’re just collateral damage for a the RINOs and DNC who are human trafficking them as de facto slaves. Trump wants to stop the slave trade, stop the thousands of deaths on the immigration trail, he’s the racist, of course! Those that want the slaves, they’re the good guys. The guy who wants to raise wages for workers is evil, and the billionaires like Bezos who want to lower them are good. No one bats an eye as this is reported, and even the suggestion that there COULD be an argument, that Americans deserve not to die too, is offensive. Because that’s how oppositeland we’ve gotten.


    Everyone is in for a harder time.


    Thanks, Dr. D.

    Next time I read someone dropping accusations of wanting the death of a million brown people just because you don’t think open borders are a great idea, I think I’ll blow a gasket.

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