provocations Archives - The Automatic Earth

US President Donald Trump has issued a cryptic warning on Truth Social, urging “everyone” to leave Tehran as soon as possible, without confirming whether Washington will intervene in the ongoing tit-for-tat hostilities between Israel and Iran. The two states have been exchanging strikes since West Jerusalem bombed Iranian nuclear and military facilities last Friday, describing the move as a preemptive effort to halt the Islamic Republic’s alleged pursuit of nuclear weapons. Iran, which denies these claims, said the airstrikes amounted to a declaration of war and has retaliated with multiple volleys of ballistic missiles. “Iran should have signed the ‘deal’ I told them to sign. Such a shame and waste of human life. Simply stated, IRAN CANNOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. I said it over and over again!” Trump wrote on Monday evening, as the conflict entered its fifth day.

“Everyone needs to evacuate Tehran immediately!” the US leader added, without elaborating on where the city’s roughly 10 million residents should go. Trump earlier insisted that the US “had nothing to do with the attack on Iran” but warned Tehran of retaliation “at levels never seen before” if it targets American assets in the region. He declined to clarify what might trigger US military involvement, telling reporters on Monday: “I don’t want to talk about that.” Earlier in the day, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed the deployment of additional “defensive capabilities” to the Middle East, without disclosing which military assets were sent over the weekend. “Protecting US forces is our top priority, and these deployments are intended to enhance our defensive posture in the region,” Hegseth posted on X.

According to Military Watch Magazine, the US has reportedly sent more than 30 aerial refueling tankers across the Atlantic toward the Middle East. The outlet described the buildup as “unprecedented,” suggesting it could signal broader US involvement in the Israeli-Iranian conflict. bIsrael has reportedly asked the US to participate directly in strikes on Iran. The IDF lacks the bunker-buster bombs required to destroy the Islamic Republic’s heavily fortified underground nuclear sites, but Washington could supply them, Axios reported Saturday, citing West Jerusalem officials.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has refused to rule out an attempt to assassinate Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, telling ABC News on Monday: “It’s going to end the conflict.” Tehran has repeatedly stated that its nuclear program is peaceful and has accused Israel of undermining diplomatic efforts with the US. “Iran did NOT begin this war and has no interest in perpetuating bloodshed. But we will proudly fight to the last drop of blood to protect our land,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted on X on Monday. He warned that “getting the US mired in the Mother of Forever Wars” would destroy any chance of a diplomatic solution.

The reports are very one-sided on US/Israel power. But Iran is not some backwater anymore.

• How Iran Turned Israel’s Iron Dome Against Itself Using Clever Jamming (Sp.)

New evidence suggests that Iran successfully compromised Israel’s vaunted air defense systems during recent attacks — forcing Tel Aviv to fire on its own positions. How? Iran overwhelmed Israeli defenses by breaching the data transmission and correction system early in flight, explains military expert and historian of the Air Defense Forces Yuri Knutov. “Based on the footage that was released, it seems that the Iranians were able to breach the data transmission and correction signal system at the early stage when the missiles were flying, using an inertial guidance system. As a result, the system misdirected the missiles, not toward their intended target, but toward Israel’s own surface-to-air missile batteries, leading to a strike on them.”

The attack included:
100+ Shahed drones (swarming tactics)
Decoy ballistic missiles (old models to waste interceptors)
Fattah hypersonic missiles (unstoppable by Israeli Arrow/PAC-3)
As a result, the Iron Dome’s interception rate dropped drastically to just 10-15%.

“The use of jamming against surface-to-air missiles and missile defense systems is actually a fairly old tactic. During the Vietnam War, the Americans used jamming to mislead missiles by range, angle, and many other active interference methods. Special transmitters were deployed to create the illusion of aircraft presence on the radar screens of Vietnamese missile guidance stations,” Knutov says. “During the Arab-Israeli conflicts of 1970 and 1973, similar jamming techniques were used by both Israeli and Egyptian pilots, as well as Soviet pilots who assisted the Egyptians,” he adds.

Iran’s hypersonic Fattah missiles and Haj Qassems guided ballistics hit critical Israeli targets, including the Defense Ministry HQ and a major airbase housing F-35 and F-16 fighters. Despite Israel’s marketing of its advanced defense systems, the Arrow and Patriot systems failed to stop them. Iran also deployed decoys so effectively that Israeli strikes repeatedly hit fake targets. The Iron Dome, which covers only 144 sq km and is good for single rockets, but seemingly couldn’t handle mass attacks or the hypersonic gap — Fattah missiles reach Israel in 7 minutes, while the Iron Dome needs 11 minutes to reload. Iran has learned from past Israeli strikes and improved tactics, establishing backup command centers and more efficient maneuvering to increase its chances of success.

US bombers? Stay home.

• US Aerial Tankers Headed To Middle East – Media (RT)

The US has reportedly deployed more than 30 aerial refueling tankers across the Atlantic toward the Middle East, Military Watch Magazine reported on Monday. The outlet has described the buildup as “unprecedented,” claiming it could suggest broader US involvement in the ongoing Israeli-Iranian war. West Jerusalem and Tehran have entered the fourth day of open hostilities. Last Thursday, Israeli forces launched airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and military targets, killing senior military officials and scientists and prompting retaliatory missile barrages on Israeli cities such as Tel Aviv and Haifa. The US has expressed support for the Israeli strikes, with President Donald Trump calling them “excellent.”

He has also warned that Washington could become directly involved in the conflict if American interests are threatened but has yet to announce any plans to involve US forces. However, according to flight tracking data, the US has already started deploying KC-135 and KC-46 aerial refueling tankers to the Middle East. Military Watch Magazine has suggested that the aircraft may be intended to support Israeli Air Force operations or refuel US fighters and bombers if Washington expands its role in the conflict. The report also claims that tankers from other Western countries have participated in Israeli aerial refueling efforts, while the US is believed to have provided intelligence, satellite targeting data, and missile defense support. On Sunday, Axios reported that Israeli officials had asked the US to directly take part in the military operation, specifically requesting assistance in striking Iran’s Fordow enrichment facility.

However, US officials cited by the outlet said the request was declined, with one stating that the Trump administration is not considering any such involvement. Nevertheless, Tehran has claimed that Washington’s support for West Jerusalem has made the US complicit in Israel’s aggression against Iran. Sources within the Iranian military have also reportedly indicated that Tehran’s response to Israeli strikes would “spread to all areas occupied by this [Israeli] regime and related US bases in the region in the coming days. In response, Trump has warned that any Iranian attack on US forces would trigger a military response, writing on his Truth Social platform that “if we are attacked in any way, shape, or form by Iran, the full strength and might of the US Armed Forces will come down on you at levels never seen before.” He also insisted that the US “had nothing to do with the attack on Iran” and called on Tehran to return to negotiations.

“..Obama and a person named [..] Trudeau didn’t want to have Russia in.”

• Russia Should Be In G8 – Trump (RT)

US President Donald Trump has called Russia’s removal from the group of major Western economies (G8) a mistake, arguing that the country’s presence could have helped prevent the escalation of the Ukraine conflict. Russia joined the group originally known as the G7 in 1997. It includes Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, the US, and also the EU as a “non-enumerated member.” Moscow’s membership was suspended in 2014 following Crimea’s reunification with Russia, upon which the G8 reverted to the G7. Crimea voted to leave Ukraine and become part of Russia via a referendum in the aftermath of a Western-backed Maidan coup in Kiev. Trump made the remarks on Monday at the opening of the G7 Leaders’ Summit in Canada, recalling that Russia had been part of the group before.

“The G7 used to be the G8,” he said at his first meeting of the summit with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. “[Former US President] Barack Obama and a person named [former Canadian Prime Minister Justin] Trudeau didn’t want to have Russia in.” “And I would say that that was a mistake, because I think you wouldn’t have a war right now if you had Russia in, and you wouldn’t have a war right now if Trump were president four years ago,” he argued. Trump repeatedly criticized Russia’s exclusion and floated the idea of bringing Moscow back during his first term, though the proposal was rejected by other members. In February, Trump once again said he would “love” to see Russia back in the group.

The Kremlin responded by saying the G7 has “lost its relevance” as it no longer reflects current global economic dynamics. Spokesman Dmitry Peskov pointed to the G20 as a more representative format, noting it includes fast-growing economies like China, India, and Brazil. “The G20 better reflects the economic locomotives of the world,” he said. Trump, who has been calling for a settlement to the Ukraine conflict, said at the G7 summit: “You spend so much time talking about Russia, and [Russian President Vladimir Putin is] no longer at the table,” which he said “makes life more complicated.”

“..How did three countries that are not hostile toward the West get turned into enemies whose subjugation is worth the risk of nuclear war?”

• The Crux of the Problem is NATO on Russia’s Borders (Paul Craig Roberts)

Have you noticed how many wars there are without being declared? Israel launches a military attack on Iran and Iran retaliates, but there is no declaration of war. Israel will attack again, and Iran will again respond by retaliating. But neither country is at war. Russia has been in conflict with Ukraine since February, 2023, but it is a Special Military Operation, not a war. Russia’s strategic triad was attacked, but it was merely a terrorist action, not an act of war. After a couple of years of being bombed, Gaza’s population is now being starved to death, but it is just a matter of clearing the area so a resort can be built. Libya and its leadership were destroyed; Iraq and its leadership were destroyed; Syria and its leadership were destroyed. But it wasn’t wars, just the imposition of democracy. Saudi Arabia invaded Yemen, but war was not declared. Israel’s attacks on Lebanon and Hezbollah are merely anti-terrorist operations, not war.

War is everywhere but the reality cannot be acknowledged. The most serious event of all is not even acknowledged. Someone in the West gave a green light for an attack on Russia’s nuclear triad despite the fact that Russia’s war doctrine requires a “strategic response” to such an attack. Putin sidestepped the issue by declaring the attack to be a terrorist action, not an act of war. But whoever gave the green light for an attack that could have initiated nuclear war between Russia and the West has not been identified and held accountable for the risk to which he subjected life on earth. Indeed, there is zero interest in discovering how the West green lighted an attack that under Russian war doctrine should have initiated nuclear war. Putin pretends it didn’t happen, and Washington is uninterested in who and how the US could have found itself in nuclear war.

President Trump says he did not know of the planned attack on Russia’s strategic triad. This should scare Trump to death. But he seems uninterested in who it was that would have initiated nuclear war with Russia had Putin not flinched. How is it that the American people, the people of Europe, the Russians, Chinese and the rest of the world can be content that it is not in the hands of President Trump whether a strike on Russia that could result in nuclear war can be initiated? How is it that an outside third party has the initiative? Left unexamined, what will the next reckless provocation be? At what point will Putin be forced to recognize reality and be forced to respond? The entire media, governments, and security agencies of the world should be focused on identifying, and preventing, a third party from initiating nuclear conflict between the two major nuclear powers.

Instead, there is no interest in the question. False narratives are in place, and they are running their course. Despite his boasts, Trump has done nothing to achieve peace. Trump could easily forestall Israeli attacks on Iran by agreeing to an inspection to certify the extent of Iran’s enrichment of uranium. Instead, Trump read Iran an ultimatum–which Trump regards as a negotiation–to stop enriching uranium for any purpose or risk being bombed out of existence. In other words, for Trump negotiation means complying with Trump’s demands. Imposing hegemony is not negotiation.

Putin says the Ukraine negotiations must address the central issue. Does anyone in Washington understand that the central issue is NATO on Russia’s borders? There are US missile bases in Poland and Romania. The missiles can be loaded with conventional or nuclear warheads. This is an existential problem for Russia, as were Soviet missile bases in Cuba for the US. President Trump can diffuse the entire issue by removing the US missile bases on Russia’s borders and by rolling NATO back to the 1997 borders.

Trump could diffuse the situation in the Middle East by announcing publicly that the US will not support any more Israeli aggression, and Trump could cease picking a fight with China. Ask yourself, what is Russia doing to us? Nothing. What is Iran doing to US? Nothing, What is China doing to US? Nothing, How did three countries that are not hostile toward the West get turned into enemies whose subjugation is worth the risk of nuclear war? This is a massive failure of Western foreign policy. Where there is no vision the people are lost.

“The “Anglo-Ukrainian terrorist tandem”..

• Kiev and London Plotting ‘Bloody Provocations’ – Russian Spy Agency (RT)

Kiev and London have been plotting a series of “bloody provocations” to escalate the Ukraine conflict and disrupt dialogue between Moscow and Washington, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) has warned. In a statement issued on Monday, the agency described growing coordination between Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) and its military intelligence (GUR) with British intelligence, which it said is due to Kiev’s “mounting battlefield setbacks and deepening moral exhaustion.” Such sabotage operations typically follow a set pattern, the SVR said, with Britain planning and coordinating, and Ukrainian operatives carrying out the attacks. The report suggested that the same approach was used in recent railway sabotage in Russia’s Bryansk and Kursk Regions, which Moscow denounced as Ukrainian “terrorist attacks.”

The incidents killed seven and injured over 120, including children. The agency also cited the June 1 Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian airbases as part of the same playbook. The “Anglo-Ukrainian terrorist tandem” is now preparing more attacks, the SVR claimed, aiming to escalate the conflict, derail Moscow-Washington dialogue, and convince the White House to maintain large-scale military support for Kiev. According to the agency, one such scenario involves a false flag Russian torpedo attack on a US Navy ship in the Baltic Sea. Ukraine has already supplied Soviet-made torpedoes to the UK, the SVR said. Some are meant to detonate at a “safe distance,” while one will be left unexploded “as evidence of Moscow’s malicious activity.” Ukrainian operatives, it added, are prepared to carry out the plan.

Another alleged scheme involves British, Ukrainian, and Northern European partners “accidentally” recovering Russian-made naval mines in the Baltic, supposedly placed to sabotage international maritime shipping routes. “Kiev has become the perfect executor of vile provocations and terrorist acts for perfidious Albion [England],” the SVR concluded. The agency’s chief, Sergey Naryshkin, has repeatedly warned of possible British provocations, saying the SVR is well aware of London’s covert hostile activities against Russia.

“..Moscow hopes that “the pause they have taken will not last too long.”

• US Postpones Talks With Russia – Moscow (RT)

The US has postponed bilateral consultations with Moscow aimed at easing tensions and restoring diplomatic missions, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova announced on Monday. Earlier this year, Russia and the US held two rounds of high-level talks, the first on February 18 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and the second on February 27 in Istanbul, Türkiye. The discussions marked the first major direct talks since the deterioration of relations following the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine. The agenda included mutual restoration of embassy operations, easing visa issuance, addressing the Ukraine conflict, and exploring potential post-conflict economic cooperation. The next round of talks was to take place in Moscow. However, according to Zakharova, this meeting was canceled at the initiative of the American negotiators.

In a statement published on the Russian Foreign Ministry’s Telegram channel, she stated, “As of today, the next meeting within the framework of bilateral consultations on eliminating ‘irritants’ to normalize the operation of diplomatic missions of both countries has been canceled at the initiative of the American negotiators.” She did not disclose the reason Washington’s gave for postponing the meetings, adding only that Moscow hopes that “the pause they have taken will not last too long.” Since taking office earlier this year, US President Donald Trump has made efforts to reestablish contact with Moscow, which had been largely severed under his predecessor, Joe Biden. Russian officials have welcomed the shift, also expressing readiness to normalize bilateral relations.

“The bodies of over 6,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been handed over to Kiev as agreed, Vladimir Medinsky has announced..Kiev returned the bodies of 78 slain Russian soldiers, he added..”

• Russia Has Fulfilled Istanbul Promises – Medinsky (RT)

Russia has returned the bodies of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers, Moscow’s chief negotiator for the Ukraine conflict, Vladimir Medinsky, has said. Moscow repatriated a total of 6,060 sets of military remains, the presidential aide said in an update posted on Telegram on Monday. Kiev returned the bodies of 78 slain Russian soldiers, he added. The exchange was agreed upon during the latest round of direct talks between Moscow and Kiev, hosted by Türkiye, in June. Medinsky’s Ukrainian counterpart, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, suggested at the time that Kiev would hand over an equal number of killed Russian troops.

In April, Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky stated in the interview that Ukraine had lost up to 100,000 troops since the escalation of the conflict in 2022. Russian Defense Ministry estimates suggest that Kiev’s losses are an order of magnitude higher than that, as of the end of 2024, with more than half of the total casualties suffered that year. The handover of military remains to Ukraine was jeopardized after Kiev reportedly refused to accept the first batch, on June 7. Ukrainian officials blamed Russia for being too hasty, though the exchange started the following day and and continued over the past week.

Kiev presently relies on mandatory conscription of men aged at least 25 years to refill the ranks of its armed forces and is currently considering making men over 60 years old eligible for the army. The mobilization campaign has been undermined by mass draft avoidance and alleged corruption among military officials responsible for recruitment.

Odd news.

• Russian Diplomats Facing ‘Nerve-wracking’ Situation In Israel – Envoy (RT)

Russian nationals in Israel, including diplomatic staff, are facing significant danger due to the country’s ongoing hostilities with Iran, Ambassador Anatoly Viktorov said Monday. In an interview with the television news channel Russia 24, Viktorov outlined the mounting difficulties confronting the embassy since tensions escalated following Israel’s attacks on Iranian nuclear sites last week. “The situation is nerve-wracking, I must admit. The threat to the lives and well-being of both diplomats and Russian citizens in Israel is not ephemeral,” Viktorov said from Tel Aviv. He noted that shockwaves from nearby explosions had shattered windows in several embassy residences. “Thankfully, there were no direct hits, but the incidents were unfortunate,” he said.

Viktorov added that the US consular office in Tel Aviv had also recently sustained minor damage from flying debris. Embassy staff have also seen their workloads increase significantly during the crisis. Viktorov said he had only managed three hours of sleep the previous night. Still, he urged employees to take their annual leave. “This is a good moment to take families and rest back home,” he said. The embassy has encouraged Russian nationals to exit Israel via Egypt, citing safety concerns. According to Viktorov, dozens have already done so and “rightfully so.”

Israel has said its strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, scientists, and senior officials were “pre-emptive,” claiming Tehran posed an existential threat. Iran denies the allegations, maintaining its nuclear program is peaceful. It has responded with missile attacks, calling them legitimate acts of self-defense. Exchanges of fire between the two nations have occurred daily since the hostilities erupted last Friday.

Moscow has placed responsibility for the escalation on Israel, accusing it of seeking to derail the indirect US-Iran negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear program. Russian officials have also warned that strikes on nuclear sites pose a potential global risk of radioactive contamination. The broader regional conflict traces back to October 2023, when a deadly incursion by the Palestinian militant group Hamas led to a sustained Israeli military operation in Gaza. West Jerusalem has also carried out air strikes in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.

G7 came ad went.

• Zelenskyy and Sheinbaum Travel to G7 Canada to Influence and Intercept (CTH)

I’ll break out a different analytical discussion on other foreign interest matters in a separate post; however, as the G7 kicks off it is very interesting to notice who shows up on President Trump’s G7 schedule in Canada – that has absolutely no bearing on the G7 meeting in Canada. According to the schedule, President Trump has meetings with both Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum. Neither Mexico or Ukraine are in the G7 (Italy, Germany, France, USA, Canada, Japan, U.K). Obviously Zelenskyy is traveling to Canada at the behest of the global intelligence network because they are afraid President Trump may no longer keep Zelenskyy at the center of the foreign policy universe. The distraction of Iran/Israel might take away the focus of President Trump – Zelenskyy cannot bear the thought of that.

For President Sheinbaum, the first Jewish leader in Mexican history, the issues are even more dramatic, consequential and serious. President Trump’s rapid deportation program is making it very difficult for Mexicans in the USA to send money back to Mexico. This is quickly becoming an urgent matter for Mexican officials who will be forced to intervene in support of the local Mexican economy if President Trump keeps impeding the accumulation of illegal wages in the USA. These two meetings are on top of all the other G7 priority meetings that are traditionally scheduled. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is intent on leveraging all the effort she put into gaining close proximity to President Trump’s inner circle for influence. Unfortunately, Meloni used Elon Musk as the entry point and, well, now her sense of desperation to retain relevance gets context.

French President Emmanuel Macron is currently battling British Prime Minister Kier Starmer in the quest to see who has more influence over President Trump. Starmer has a state visit and praise from King Charles to bolster his agenda, but Macron has a longer tenure of proximity to Trump. Zelenskyy showing up in Canada is intended to make Europe the focus of the assembly, with Macron and Starmer representing the ‘coalition of the -mostly- willing’. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, is unfortunately not getting as much attention despite hosting the G7. The reasoning is simple, Carney doesn’t represent anything of value to the USA agenda until President Trump decides to take apart the USMCA trade agreement. Until that process begins, the shouting of Canada about tariffs is akin to an annoying buzzing sound in the background; irrelevant white noise from the snow Mexicans.

Ursula von der Leyen will be in Canada because the insufferable European Union always consider themselves as part of the G7 despite not being a nation. The stupid parliamentarians of the EU always demand representation for their Brussels nonsense and often the NATO knuckleheads tag along. In many ways we can look at the appearance of Mexico and Ukraine through the prism that the G7 doesn’t have any other issues more important to them than (1) trade/tariffs, and (2) war against Russia. PM Carney willing to inject any ally of his that might assist the trade war and Ukraine war advocacy.

World-renowned infectious-disease epidemiologist Martin Kulldorff — who was fired from Harvard Medical School last year after refusing the COVID vaccine — just got a new gig.

• Martin Kulldorff Named To CDC Vaccine Panel (ZH)

Kulldorff has been named a member of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Advisory Committee for Immunization Practices. Kulldorff, who had refused the COVID vaccine because of his infection-acquired immunity, lost his appointment at a Harvard-affiliated hospital in the early days of the COVID era, and in March of 2024 was officially terminated as a med school faculty member. Since the COVID lockdowns began five years ago this month, Kulldorff argued that tactics such as social distancing, masking children, vaccines after infections, and other extreme measures were not the best course of action to fight the virus. He co-authored the Great Barrington Declaration, which called for sensible tactics that would allow the globe to reach “herd immunity” and has been signed by nearly 1 million scientists worldwide.

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., in announcing the new members of the panel last week on X, wrote that his selections signify a “major step towards restoring public trust in vaccines.” Kennedy wrote he retired the 17 current members of the committee and is repopulating ACIP with eight new members “committed to evidence-based medicine, gold-standard science, and common sense.” “They have each committed to demanding definitive safety and efficacy data before making any new vaccine recommendations. The committee will review safety and efficacy data for the current schedule as well,” Kennedy stated. MassLive reported that in 2021, “Kulldorff posted on X that ‘thinking that everyone must be vaccinated is as scientifically flawed as thinking that nobody should.’”

“COVID vaccines are important for older high-risk people and their care-takers,” he wrote. “Those with prior natural infection do not need it. Nor children.” According to the New York Times, after Kennedy’s announcement, some infectious disease and vaccine experts accused the health secretary of going back on his pledge not to pick so-called anti-vaxxers. “When Mr. Kennedy fired the entire committee, known as the A.C.I.P., he cited financial conflicts of interest and said a clean sweep was necessary to restore public trust in vaccination,” the Times reported. As for Harvard’s role in the controversy, writing in City Journal last year, Kulldorff argued that Harvard turned its back on him, open debate, and medical freedom.

“The beauty of our immune system is that those who recover from an infection are protected if and when they are re-exposed. This has been known since the Athenian Plague of 430 BC—but it is no longer known at Harvard,” he wrote. “Three prominent Harvard faculty coauthored the now infamous ‘consensus’ memorandum in The Lancet, questioning the existence of Covid-acquired immunity. By continuing to mandate the vaccine for students with a prior Covid infection, Harvard is de facto denying 2,500 years of science.”Kennedy, in announcing Kulldorff, noted he is a biostatistician and “a leading expert in vaccine safety and infectious disease surveillance.”“… Dr. Kulldorff developed widely used tools such as SaTScan and TreeScan for detecting disease outbreaks and vaccine adverse events. His expertise includes statistical methods for public health surveillance, immunization safety, and infectious disease epidemiology. He has also been an influential voice in public health policy, advocating for evidence-based approaches to pandemic response.”

The Clinton-Soros machine.

• King-Less? (James Howard Kunstler)

Saturday morning, we toodled over to the next town, Salem, New York, (pop. 2,612, per capita income $19,499) fifty miles northeast of Albany, to catch one of the hundreds of “No Kings” demos across the nation sponsored by Shanghai-based software billionaire Neville Roy Singham, Walmart heiress Christy Walton, Paypal partner (and Linked-in founder) Reid Hoffman, and father-and son team, George and Alex Soros. Speaking of A;ex Soros, Saturday also happened to be his wedding day, to Huma Abedin, former Hillary Clinton sidekick and BFF (and ex-wife of disgraced congressman and convicted sex offender Anthony Weiner.) The nuptials happened at the Soros’s Hamptons estate. Cable news covered the fabulous cavalcade of black Escalade limousines conveying the super-elite of Progressive-Wokery to the glorious event. The New York Times, with its habitual lack of self-awareness, styled the event thusly:

“Liberal royalty?” Say, what. . . ? There is such a thing? In the party of No Kings? What’s the deal, then? Just princes and princesses, dukes and duchesses, earls, viscounts, baronets, lairds, marquis, knights and dames, and so on. Yet, no king? Well, if you asked the fortunate wedding guests, they might aver to Hillary Clinton as a sort-of Queen of the party, or maybe just Queen Bee. As for former president Bill, he appears to be undergoing slow-motion mummification, so he currently occupies an ambiguous zone between this world and the next, with no mojo left for kingly duties. Anyway, it rained that day down on the South Fork. Meanwhile, back upstate, cloudy and cool but no rain, some two-hundred wrathful plebeian souls gathered at the one-stoplight-intersection in little Salem, these days mainly a farm community, the old railroad engine repair shop defunct, and many good non-farm jobs with it, the usual story in this corner of the country. The hopped-up crowd was well-supplied with signs and placards, many avouching Down with Oligarchs! — which, oddly, seemed a sort of backhanded reference to billionaires of the very type underwriting the day’s festivities, not to mention the super-rich “liberal royalty” gang gathered for the Soros-Abedin royal wedding.

But that was only one of the many incongruities haunting the mass protest against the abhorred president, Mr. Trump. For instance, one poor fellow on the southeast corner of South Main and East Broadway inveighed mournfully against the suppression of free speech, apparently unaware of the epic efforts 2021 to 2025 by “Joe Biden’s” underlings to censor the Internet and de-platform the regime’s critics (including yours truly, whose website was mysteriously destroyed in October 2024).

The moiling mob was overwhelmingly geriatric, perhaps reflecting the backwater demographics of a region with few job opportunities for young folk. A spirit of revival bubbled among them as they reenacted old rituals of the hippie halcyon, the grand old days of the Vietnam War protests, when thousands gathered to levitate the Pentagon. Only now, their sentiments and beliefs exhibit a striking and peculiar inversion of the ancient 1960s credos that drove the beloved Movement.

I know because I was there, on campus, between 1966 and 1971. Back then, the Left opposed the wicked “establishment” and all its nefarious operations, from the war in Vietnam to the FBI’s underhanded suppression of political dissent. These days, strange to relate, the Left stands in staunch defense of the Deep State, big government (and its prodigious corruption), and the politicization of the FBI and CIA.

Their placards lament the withering of “our democracy,” yet they were just fine with “Joe Biden” selecting a 2024 presidential candidate for them — with no customary vote by party delegates, or anything approaching an open democratic process. They shout for the “rule-of-law,” except when it concerns special persons such as the former president’s crackhead, bag-man son. They’re all for the colossal grift around the war in Ukraine. And don’t forget they supported vaccine mandates, the closing and ruination of small businesses (while Walmart and Taco Bell were allowed to thrive), and all the other hypocritical, fraudulent, lethal actions of Covid-19 policy.

“..a Muslim woman was estimated to have 2.9 children during her lifetime, compared to 2.2 for non-Muslim women..”

“Islam is set to grow to become the world’s largest religion in years ahead, unless trend lines shift..”

• Islam Growing Three Times As Fast As Christianity – Study (RT)

Islam grew approximately three times as fast as Christianity between 2010 and 2020, spurred by higher birth rates and lower rates of deconversion, according to new data from the Pew Research Center. The global population of Muslims rose by nearly 21% over the ten-year span, while the number of Christians only grew by around 6%, according to data from the study, which was released last week. The number of Muslims grew twice as fast as the rest of the world’s population, which expanded by 10% during the same decade. Islam also gained more individual followers than all non-Muslim religions combined during the decade, the research indicated. The study cited higher birth rates and a younger average age among adherents of Islam as key reasons for the growth.

On average, a Muslim woman was estimated to have 2.9 children during her lifetime, compared to 2.2 for non-Muslim women, the research suggested, citing 2015-2020 data. New converts and those leaving the faith had little impact on the growth, as both averaged about 1% during the 2010s, according to the study. Despite growing more slowly, Christianity had remained the world’s largest religion, with 2.3 billion followers in 2020, while Islam held second place with 2 billion, the research indicated. While the number of Christians grew within the ten-year period, the religion’s overall share of the global population shrank by nearly 2%, according to the data. Christian population growth has tapered due to high rates of people leaving to become religiously unaffiliated, according to the study. Despite relatively high fertility rates among adherents, the faith witnessed a net loss of 11.6 adults for every 100 adults who were raised as Christian.

“Islam is set to grow to become the world’s largest religion in years ahead, unless trend lines shift,” said Conrad Hackett, the lead researcher at the Pew Research Center and the main author of the study, according to The Washington Post. He added that it was “striking” to see such a dramatic shift in just a decade, pointing out that the Muslim and Christian populations had grown closer in size as Islam expanded more rapidly than any other major faith. The research covered thousands of censuses and surveys in 201 countries and focused on seven groups: Christians, Muslims, Hindus, Buddhists, Jews, other religions, and individuals who do not identify with any particular religion.

“..state media platform RIA Novosti editorialized on June 14 that the Israeli operations are a rehearsal for what the US and its allies are planning to do to Russia, and that this is well understood in Moscow.”

• Happy Birthday Donald, Happy US Army and Flag Day (Helmer)

There are no flies on President Vladimir Putin. That’s an expression which originated in the fly-blown goldrush mines of Australia in 1840 and then moved with the flies to the goldrush mines of California a few years later. Literally, it means a man who is too quick for a fly to settle on him. Metaphorically, it means a man who is much too clever to be fooled by a fraudster or deceived by an enemy. Putin is much too quick not to recognize that President Donald Trump is both a fraudster and an enemy. Putin doesn’t have to be told by the General Staff that Trump’s war plans are an existential threat to Russia’s security on the western front (Ukraine, Romania, Poland); northern front (Norway, Sweden, Finland), eastern front (Japan, South Korea); and southern front (Iran).

Last Thursday night, as the US and Israel began their war against Russia’s strategic ally Iran, starting with decapitation strikes against the Islamic Republic’s leadership, the Russian General Staff didn’t have to send Putin their “we told you so” message. But the Kremlin’s communication system broke down, nonetheless. Officially, the war didn’t begin for the Russians until they detected US and Israeli fuelling, arming, and deception preparations on Thursday ahead of the first Israeli weapons launches after midnight into Friday. Earlier in the day, Putin had been telling his arms chiefs “we know the enemy’s modus operandi. However, I do not think we are falling behind in any way.” The combination of drone and missile attack tactics of the enemy requires, he said, “the new state armament programme [to] ensure creation of a universal air defence system capable of operating under any conditions and effectively hitting air assault weapons regardless of their type.”

What about defence against ultra close range, ultra low-altitude drone attacks of the kind which the US, the UK and Ukraine had successfully executed, evading detection and interception, on June 1 against Russia’s nuclear bomber bases across the country? Putin’s scripted phrase “air assault weapons” left that unmentioned in the Kremlin communiqué, but not in the closed-door session after Putin announced: “Let’s get to work”.* What then was the similar coordination by the US and Israel of long-range air assault operations with ground-level attacks targeted fatally on five, possibly eight Iranian generals and five Iranian nuclear scientists. The US and Israeli media reports have termed these decapitation strikes acts of war, not acts of terrorism. The Russian media reports have followed suit.

The state media platform RIA Novosti editorialized on June 14 that the Israeli operations are a rehearsal for what the US and its allies are planning to do to Russia, and that this is well understood in Moscow. “Many respected analysts of different calibres believe that the purpose of the attack on Iran is to eliminate the country’s nuclear program (necessarily) and regime change (extremely desirable). In fact, the main goal of the operation is to work out a mass preventive disarming strike against the enemy with serious military capabilities – that enemy is called not Iran, but Russia.”

This strategic plan, writes Boris Rozhin, a leading military blogger reflecting the views of senior Russian military officers, is President Donald Trump’s first of all, and aimed at Russia next. “Current events in the Middle East region demonstrate a dramatic change in the geopolitical situation. The Western powers, throwing away their purported enmity, have united in a general offensive against an independent Iran, a key ally of Russia…The previous ‘disagreements’ have turned out to be only a spectacle for the public. Iran’s defeat will be a strategic catastrophe for Russia, surpassing even the loss of Syria. Iran plays a key role in maintaining a balance of power in the Middle East and is Russia’s most important ally in confronting Western domination…The war against Iran, initiated by the Western world, could have disastrous consequences for the entire world order. This is not a local conflict, but an attempt to finally break the last pockets of resistance to the unipolar world…For Russia, this means the need to make drastic decisions to protect its strategic interests and allies.” — June 14, 21:19.

“In summing up this story,” Rozhin wrote yesterday, — June 14, 14:31, “we can conclude – if there is anyone who has not yet understood – that the ‘Trump peace attempts’ are worthless and will lead to nothing – neither in the Middle East nor in Ukraine. Therefore, agreements with Trump are not worth it. It is necessary to strengthen the army and the military-industrial complex and achieve the goals of the SVO [Special Military Operation] by military means. In order not to say again, ‘we wanted peace, and the Americans deceived us again’, as the Iranians do now.”

In the policy discussion currently under way, a Moscow source reports the intelligence assessment that Iran’s military capabilities are not as effective as they have been publicly portrayed or as the generals have threatened; that the clerical leadership under Ayatollah Ali Khamenei knows this; and that he and his clerical allies believe their best chance of survival in power is to limit the counterattack on Israel, ask for a ceasefire, bargain with their threat to close the Hormuz Strait, and abandon their negotiating positions on nuclear enrichment and missile development.

“If the nuclear bomb was a bluff, and we believe it was,” the source says, “then they should have learned the lessons of Saddam [Hussein]. They should have expected Netanyahu and Trump to call their bluff. Now that’s happened, Iran’s internal weakness is also stark. I believe SVR [foreign intelligence], GRU [military intelligence] and MiD [foreign ministry] have concluded the conflict is the Iranians to lose – and this is what is happening. What can Putin do if the clerics have no nerve to fight?”

At least it was not quiet.

• 10 YEARS AGO: Donald Trump Announces Presidential Candidacy (DS)

Ten years ago today, now-President Donald Trump came down the Trump Tower escalator in Manhattan to announce his run to be president of the United States. “We need a leader that can bring back our jobs, can bring back our manufacturing, can bring back our military, can take care of our vets. …. We need somebody that literally will take this country and make it great again,” said the Queens-born real estate mogul and reality television star. The 69-year-old made a number of promises, reshaping American politics to this day. “I will build a great, great wall on our southern border. And I will have Mexico pay for that wall, mark my words,” Trump told the Manhattan crowd. Trump’s claims were met with general ridicule from most media coverage.

“Donald J. Trump, the garrulous real estate developer whose name has adorned apartment buildings, hotels, Trump-brand neckties and Trump-brand steaks, announced on Tuesday his entry into the 2016 presidential race, brandishing his wealth and fame as chief qualifications in an improbable quest for the Republican nomination,” wrote the New York Times in its mocking coverage of the candidate who would defeat Democrat Hillary Clinton little over a year later. Ten years later, Trump is pushing for the speedy passage of the “big, beautiful” budget reconciliation bill, which would secure funding to complete construction of the Southern border wall. In his Trump Tower speech, the billionaire also vowed to bring stability to the Middle East.

“Islamic terrorism is eating up large portions of the Middle East. They’ve become rich. I’m in competition with them. They [ISIS] just built a hotel, can you believe this? … Nobody will be tougher on ISIS than Donald Trump,” he said, also promising to “stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons.” In June 2025, Israel and Iran are currently at war after Israel struck the Islamic regime in an attempt to prevent it from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

The future-president also spoke at length on a topic that is still top-of-mind today—China. ““I like China. I love China,” he said. “[But] it’s like take the New England Patriots and Tom Brady and have them play your high school football team. That’s the difference between China’s leaders and our leaders. … We have all the cards, but we don’t know how to use them.” In June 2025, Trump’s White House has said they have reached a consensus on a trade agreement with China. Now at the age of 79, Trump is half of a year into his second term as president after winning every swing, as well as the popular vote. The journey he began in 2015 is far from over.

Anthony

Moose

pic.twitter.com/eVlRzGehgd

— Kat❤️ (@IrishKat00) June 15, 2025

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Debt Rattle April 7 2018

Apr 072018

April 7, 2018 Posted by Raúl Ilargi Meijer at 10:24 am Finance Tagged with: AI, conundrum, Facebook, jobs, macroeconomics, provocations, rhinos, savings, shipping 2 Responses »

Arthur Rothstein Grain elevators, Great Falls, Montana 1939

• US Jobs: One Big Miss (CNBC)

• Everything Has Changed In Macroeconomics, But.. (Murphy)

• Income From UK Savings Accounts Dropped 16% In A Year (Ind.)

• Social Media Users Treated As ‘Experimental Rats’ – EU Watchdog (CNBC)

• Facebook Users Have To Pay To Opt Out Of Their Data Being Used (CNBC)

• AI: An ‘Immortal Dictator From Which We Can Never Escape’ (CNBC)

• 960,000 Households In Australia Will Face ‘Mortgage Stress’ (IBT)

• Another Mighty Conundrum (Kunstler)

• Provocations (Dmitry Orlov)

• Shipping Is a Big Part of the Climate Problem (BBG)

• Chinese Man Caught Smuggling Five Rhino Horns Is Jailed By Dutch Court (G.)

93 million not in the labor force.

• US Jobs: One Big Miss (CNBC)

Nonfarm payrolls rose 103,000 in March while the unemployment rate was 4.1%, falling well short of Wall Street expectations during a month where weather caused havoc on the jobs market, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics report Friday. Economists had been expecting a payrolls gain of 193,000 and the unemployment rate to decline one-tenth of a point to 4%. The monthly reading was a huge slip from the 326,000 reported in February. A broader measure of unemployment that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time positions for economic reasons — the underemployed — fell two-tenths of a point to 8%, its lowest reading in 11 years.

“If one were to only focus on this single month, the March employment report is on the disappointing side,” said Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate.com. “Broader context is appropriate, however. The job market is widely regarded to be close to full employment. So, hiring gains should be slowing at this point in the expansion.” In addition to the payrolls news, the closely watched average hourly earnings figure rose 0.3%, against estimates of 0.2%. The number equates to a healthy but not worrisome 2.7% rate on an annualized basis. The average work week was unchanged at 34.5 hours.

Stock market reaction to the report was muted, with major indexes lower largely on renewed worries over a U.S. trade war with China. “Wage growth continues to inch higher but not enough to worry markets at this point,” said Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial. “As we move closer and closer towards full employment expectations are that headline employment should slow. This number reflects a continued reversion to the mean.” Professional and business services led with 33,000 new jobs while manufacturing and health care added 22,000 new jobs apiece. Mining rose 9,000 while construction lost 15,000 positions and retail fell 4,000.

Never again…

• Everything Has Changed In Macroeconomics, But.. (Murphy)

I spend a lot of time writing about the Global Financial Crisis. Not much of it is published yet: academia is desperately slow. The crash of 2008 and its aftermath is, however, an ever-present reality both in my work life, and to be candid, the world beyond it. But I still do not think we appreciate how much everything has changed. A blog from John Lewis who works for the Bank of England gave some hint of the scale of this change this week. Lewis looked at real interest rates for three centuries i.e. those adjusted for inflation. When considering real bank rate, mortgage rates, and 10-year government bond yields over time this is what he found. As he notes: ‘the lines show the five-year moving averages of the ex-post real interest rate. The dots show the values over the years 2012 to 2016’:

As he notes: “The 5-year average of real bank rate rarely goes below zero – previous instances were mainly during the 1970s inflation and around world wars. The decline in real bond yields since the 1980s leaves them about 300bps below their all time average.” Now there may be good reason for that: broader markets, real reduced risk because of better information, and so on. The absence of world war helps too. But it also means that if we were to return to ‘normal’ or the mean then the change in rates would be massive:

The most useful contrast is with 1997 – 2007, of course. We’re talking adjustments of 4% or more. That is not going to happen. There are good reasons. Most mortgage holders would fail to make their payments. Most banks would then collapse. and government debt costs would increase and may politicians would panic at that whether appropriately or not. I will be blunt. Everything has changed. Those rates are history. This though has massive implications. If this is the case then monetary policy as a mechanism for controlling inflation and economic activity has died: rates that let it work cannot be recreated. And yet almost the whole of macroeconomic thinking is premised on its use, as is the role of central banks in our economies.

The reality is that everything has changed. And yet there is, so far, almost no reaction. Fiscal policy – spend and tax – is the only tool left to the government now and yet no one is saying so. No wonder I spend half my time wondering why we feel so out of control. We are.

We’ll get you into the casino yet.

• Income From UK Savings Accounts Dropped 16% In A Year (Ind.)

UK savers’ income from bank accounts fell 16 per cent in a year, according to new research, due to low interest rates from banks and building societies. According to easyMoney, the investment platform launched by easyJet founder Stelios Haji-Ioannou, the drop in savings income is worse in real terms due to rising inflation. The decline in income is based on numbers from the 2015/2016 financial year (the latest available data from HMRC) when savers made £5.7bn compared with £6.8bn in 2014/2015. At the end of the 2014/2015 fiscal year, inflation was -0.1 per cent; by January this year it had risen to 3 per cent.

With savers seeing less benefit from stashing their money in bank accounts and cash ISAs, easyMoney said, people are increasingly turning towards alternatives, with many inclined to “take on a sensible increase in risk”. Andrew de Candole, CEO of easyMoney, said: “Savers are increasingly fed up with seeing their money just sitting doing nothing in bank accounts. “It’s easy to see why: these figures show that savings accounts’ and cash ISAs’ performance has been getting worse. With inflation eating away at values, the reality is there’s very little incentive to save through these traditional routes. “For many people the time has come to take action. Investors need products that offer real returns, and many are prepared to accept a sensible, calculated increase in risk in order to achieve this.”

So act.

• Social Media Users Treated As ‘Experimental Rats’ – EU Watchdog (CNBC)

Facebook needs to make sure the new tools it has introduced to help safeguard user data in the wake of the Cambridge Analytica scandal is done in “practice and not only on paper,” the European Union’s top data watchdog told CNBC. The social network has unveiled a raft of new tools since news of the fiasco broke, with the aim of helping users understand and control how their data are used. Giovanni Buttarelli, the European Data Protection Supervisor (EDPS), said Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg needs to ensure these changes are done in practice. “I take note of what Zuckerberg has said recently, he said that he takes care of the privacy right. The question is they should do it in practice and not only on paper,” Buttarelli told CNBC in a phone interview on Thursday.

[..] Buttarelli criticized social media firms’ data collection practices. “There are days when you have the impression people are treated as battery animals or experimental rats. We are treated as a farm for data. We are in within a walled garden and every single action is monitored,” Buttarelli said. The EDPS is in charge of making sure that data are being handled correctly within EU institutions like the Commission. But it is also part of a working group made up of the data protection authorities from various member states.

[..] Buttarelli said there are likely to be far-reaching consequences which could include punishments for companies. “I’m expecting far-reaching consequences on the broader scale. There is a need of a change of culture,” he told CNBC. Last month, European Parliament President Antonio Tajani invited Zuckerberg to testify in front of lawmakers and give reassurances that EU citizens’ data were not used to “manipulate democracy.” Buttarelli said it would be “wise” for Zuckerberg to honor the invitation from Tajani.

If you ask me, the highest tree ain’t high enough. But that’s just me. And it’s not those that do it, it’s those that let them.

• Facebook Users Have To Pay To Opt Out Of Their Data Being Used (CNBC)

Facebook users could have to pay to completely opt out of their data being used to target them with advertising, the company’s Chief Operating Officer Sheryl Sandberg told NBC News on Thursday. NBC asked if Facebook could come up with a tool to let people have a button that allows them to restrict the social network from using their profile data to stop targeted ads. Sandberg said that the company has “different forms of opt out” but not one button for everything. “We don’t have an opt-out at the highest level. That would be a paid product,” Sandberg told NBC. The comments come in the wake of the scandal in which 87 million Facebook profiles were scraped with the data being sent to political consultancy Cambridge Analytica.

Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg has apologized for the company’s role in the data scandal and is now set to testify in front of Congress on April 11. Zuckerberg has also been summoned to appear in front of lawmakers in the U.K. and European Union. The data issue arose from a quiz app that collected data of Facebook users and their friends. This data was then passed on to Cambridge Analytica. Facebook banned the app in 2015, and said it got “assurances” from Cambridge Analytica and the app maker that the data was deleted. However, reports suggested this wasn’t the case. Facebook has been criticized for not checking the data had been erased, a mistake that Sandberg acknowledged.

Even Musk makes sense once in a blue moon.

• AI: An ‘Immortal Dictator From Which We Can Never Escape’ (CNBC)

Superintelligence — a form of artificial intelligence (AI) smarter than humans — could create an “immortal dictator,” billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk warned. In a documentary by American filmmaker Chris Paine, Musk said that the development of superintelligence by a company or other organization of people could result in a form of AI that governs the world. “The least scary future I can think of is one where we have at least democratized AI because if one company or small group of people manages to develop godlike digital superintelligence, they could take over the world,” Musk said. “At least when there’s an evil dictator, that human is going to die. But for an AI, there would be no death. It would live forever. And then you’d have an immortal dictator from which we can never escape.”

The documentary by Paine examines a number of examples of AI, including autonomous weapons, Wall Street technology and algorithms driving fake news. It also draws from cultural examples of AI, such as the 1999 film “The Matrix” and 2016 film “Ex Machina.” [..] “If AI has a goal and humanity just happens to be in the way, it will destroy humanity as a matter of course without even thinking about it. No hard feelings,” Musk said. “It’s just like, if we’re building a road and an anthill just happens to be in the way, we don’t hate ants, we’re just building a road, and so, goodbye anthill.”

Lowballing.

• 960,000 Households In Australia Will Face ‘Mortgage Stress’ (IBT)

The number of Australian households facing “mortgage stress” will likely reach 960,000, according to a new data. Slow wage growth is blamed for the trend as it does not keep up with the rising cost of living. Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) has recently released data which suggests that the number of households facing mortgage stress will likely reach about one million. Mortgage stress is a term used to refer to households spending 30% or above of its pre-tax income on home loan repayments. Households are defined as “stressed” when cash flow does not cover ongoing costs.

As for access to other available assets, that is something that they may or may not have. Some households have paid ahead, but those in mild stress have little leeway in their net income while those in severe stress could not meet repayments from current income. The new data also shows that the figure was a climb of 30,000 in the last month, encapsulating low and high-income-earning households, according to 9 News. For DFA spokesperson Martin North, it was an indication of how dire the country’s housing situation is getting.

“Things will get more severe, especially as household debt continues to climb to new record levels, mortgage lending is still growing at two to three times income,” Daily Mail Australia reported him as saying. North added that those numbers were not sustainable. It was estimated that over 55,000 households risk 30-day default in the next 12 months. Bank portfolio losses were expected to be about 2.8 basis points. Aside from flat wages growth and rising costs of living, higher real mortgage rates are perceived to be a burden. Mortgage lending continues to grow at two to three times income. The latest household debt to income ratio is currently at a record 188.6.

Pot and sanctuary.

• Another Mighty Conundrum (Kunstler)

The sanctuary city movement seems to me the most mendacious element of the story, a nakedly emotional appeal against the rule of law. The attorney general of California, Xavier Becerra, lately threatened to fine corporations there that share employee information with federal agents. There has not been such arrant flouting of federal law by state officials since Governor George Wallace stood in the doorway of the University of Alabama crying “segregation now, segregation tomorrow, segregation forever” in June, 1963 — and we all know how that ended. I’m among those who would like to see the immigration laws honestly enforced. In fact, I would also like to see the 1965 immigration law reformed to admit far fewer people from any land into this country. We have economic and cultural interests to protect, and they would seem to be self-evident.

So why has there been no move by the federal authorities to impose sovereign federal law over figures like Mr. Becerra, or Oakland Mayor Libby Schaaf, who went through the barrio there Paul Revere style warning that the ICE agents were coming? Well, one big reason is the marijuana situation. Nine states have legalized cannabis for recreational use (i.e. for getting high), and 29 have legalized it for medical purposes. This includes all of the states on the “Left Coast.” All of them are flouting federal law in doing that. But imagine the political uproar if the feds tried to step in at this point and quash the cannabis trade. In the early adapters, like Colorado, California, and Washington State, the trade has blossomed into multi-million dollar corporate enterprise, with significant tax revenue.

So, much as I object to the dishonest practices around immigration, I don’t see how the federal government can take principled action against them without first addressing its attitude to the marijuana situation. Of course, that could be easily disposed of by congress adopting a simple law to the effect that the cultivation and sale of cannabis shall be regulated by the states. The craven members of congress apparently don’t even dare to raise the issue of resolving this conundrum, and the thought may have never even entered the mighty golden brain-pan of our president — not to mention The New York Times, The Washington Post, CNN, Fox-News, or any of the other media organs of public debate. Well, maybe the time has come for that discussion.

An absolutely fantastic story by Dmitry. Don’t miss this.

• Provocations (Dmitry Orlov)

First, I will present just the facts. Next, I will indicate some huge, gaping holes in the plot which we must, perforce, fill using our imaginations (for lack of detailed factual information), but relying on real world knowledge as much as possible to build a plausible scenario (or two). In the end, the most plausible scenario wins. On February 22, 2018, the Argentine newspaper El Clarin has reported that a major shipment of drugs from Buenos Aires to Moscow—389 kg of pure cocaine, valued at over 60 million USD, and bearing the markings of the Sinaloa drug cartel of Northern Mexico—was prevented from taking place thanks to the efforts of Russia’s FSB and the Argentine authorities. Several people, including a member of the Argentine police and someone involved in charity work, have been detained.

Victor Coronelli, Russia’s ambassador to Argentina, related how all the way back in 2016 the embassy received information that possessions belonging to some third party had been found in a storage space at a children’s school operated by the embassy and located several blocks away from it. Suspicions arose and a thorough examination had uncovered 12 colorful suitcases filled with 389 “keys” (1-kilo blocks) of cocaine bearing the little star that is the symbol of the Sinaloa cartel of Northern Mexico. Shortly after the cocaine was discovered, Russia’s FSB, working together with the Argentine police, hatched an ingenious plan for a sting operation, to find out who is behind this shipment. To this end, they carefully replaced the cocaine with flour and placed the 12 colorful suitcases back in storage.

And there they sat for over a year. What has been done with the cocaine that was extracted isn’t known. Apparently, it took a great deal of effort to get anyone to take possession of these suitcases. Eventually, two people were found who agreed to take delivery of them in Moscow: Vladimir Kalmykov and Ishtimir Hudzhamov. They are currently in pretrial detention in Russia. A third suspect, Andrei Kovalchuk, is under arrest in Germany, awaiting extradition to Russia, but his extradition is conditional on whether the Russian side can offer evidence of his complicity or guilt in organizing the shipment.

Kovalchuk used to work for Russia’s Foreign Ministry, but most recently he has used his old ministerial connections to arrange for some small-scale contraband to be shipped to Russia via diplomatic mail: cigars, coffee, cognac, etc. Such trade had been common during the 1990s, when Russian diplomats had fallen on hard times and did whatever they could to make ends meet, but it has become unnecessary in recent years, now that they are very well provided for once again. Still, cigars, coffee and cognac is what Kovalchuk—an apparent throwback to this earlier, meager era—maintains was in the suitcases he had stashed at the school in Buenos Aires: he has kept all of the receipts. He plans to travel to Russia of his own free will once he has gathered all the evidence he needs to exonerate himself.

Bloomberg editors are clueless, but the issue is real.

• Shipping Is a Big Part of the Climate Problem (BBG)

When almost all the world’s governments agreed in Paris more than two years ago to address climate change, they sidestepped an important issue: carbon emissions from international shipping. Next week in London, they have a chance to put this right. Shipping is by far the most energy-efficient mode of transport, and it moves some 80% of world trade by volume. However, the fuel it uses is hard on the environment and human health — and ships last a long time, so deploying cleaner fleets takes time. Already, international shipping accounts for about as much carbon dioxide each year as Germany’s whole economy. On current trends, its share of the total will rise quickly. It could account for roughly 15% of the global carbon budget set by the Paris accord for 2050.

Next week, the International Maritime Organization is expected to announce a strategy for reducing these emissions. The plan is unlikely to be bold. Countries including Argentina, Brazil, India, Panama and Saudi Arabia are resisting carbon dioxide targets for shipping. Unsurprisingly, the industry itself is also opposed. Despite this resistance, the IMO needs to be ambitious. Ultimately, the most cost-effective approach would be to put a tax on carbon, and let that guide investment and innovation. But devising and implementing an international carbon-price system won’t be done overnight. In the short run, the IMO ought to propose a variety of useful course corrections.

The problem in a nutshell: 1 year in jail (5 months with good conduct?!) for 5 rhinos. He’ll do it again as soon as he’s freed. $600,000. Another issue where the tallest tree isn’t high enough.

And we’re not even trying.

• Chinese Man Caught Smuggling Five Rhino Horns Is Jailed By Dutch Court (G.)

A Dutch court has sentenced a Chinese man to a year in jail for smuggling five rhino horns and four other horn objects worth about €500,000 ($613,000) in his luggage. The man was caught by customs officials at Schiphol airport in December as he traveled through Amsterdam on his way from South Africa to the Chinese city of Shanghai. It recalled that trading in endangered species is banned under the CITES convention prohibiting sales of protected animals and plants. South Africa is battling a scourge of rhino poaching fuelled by insatiable demand for their horn in Asia.

The country’s ministry of environmental affairs said earlier this year that 1,028 rhinos were slaughtered in 2017. In the last eight years alone, roughly a quarter of the world population of rhinos has been killed in South Africa, home to 80% of the remaining animals. Most of the demand comes from China and Vietnam, where the horn is coveted as a traditional medicine, an aphrodisiac or as a status symbol.