Oct 072014
 
 October 7, 2014  Posted by at 8:52 pm Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , ,


DPC St. Mary’s Canal parade, Sault Sainte Marie, MI 1905

Something’s happening in Europe that I would like to cheer and encourage at the top of my lungs. While only yesterday, most European leaders, the ECB and the IMF were busy chiding Germany for not lowering taxes or increasing government investment in its economy, today’s release of German economic data should either shut them up or drastically change their tune.

Then again, they are to a (wo)man too self-obsessed and -important to keep their traps closed, and they know only the one tune. That should lead to some serious bitterness, of which I’m also full-heartedly in favor. For everyone’s good but that of the self-absorbed politicians, the eurozone should be demolished, and entirely new, far more modest treaties between the nations negotiated.

If we can agree the single currency, and the legal settings it is caught in, have already done great damage to the over 50% of young people in Spain and Greece who may never find jobs at all, to the Italians and Irish who were keelhauled in the name of the greater good, and and and, and to all the millions in all the other eurozone member nations, if we can agree on that, things are going to get much worse if the euro project is not abandoned as soon as possible.

The good thing about Germany’s bad, make that awful, numbers is that they will raise the voices of euroskeptics across the country. If there is to be a change in view or politics from Angela Merkel and her people, it’s not going to be what the rest of Europe wants, a softer stance on Mario Draghi’s ABS junk paper purchases. Quite the opposite: Germans will increase their calls for Deutschland first, and Merkel can no longer ignore them.

Berlin will have to turn to protectionist policies, sort of like the antithesis the the entire European project that has seen so much support from these very Germans. Merkel cannot accept looser financial policies in Brussels, which carry the risk – bordering on certainty – that her taxpayers will be on the hook for losses incurred in the ECB’s last ditch attempts to save itself and the currency. Merkel’s – existing and potential – voters will not accept it.

That de facto means she must turn her back on Europe. It will not be advertized that way, at least not in the beginning, but it is what it all comes down to. Whether you agree or not that Germany’s own points of view and actions have contributed to the misery large parts of Europe are in, the fact remains they’re miserable and slip sliding into worse. Something needs to be done, but no-one can agree on what.

Draghi’s highly expensive and highly disputed buy buy buy plans can’t actually solve any problems, neither the ones countries already had nor those the euro straightjacket added. What the plans may do is buy a bit of time. Time that will be used to further tighten the euro noose around everyone’s neck.

Central banks can’t solve problems, but they sure can make them worse. This may sound strange when you look at what many see as a recovery in the US, but just wait a few more years and then look at what $10+ trillion has bought Americans, or $25 trillion has done for China.

In the end, it’s all just more debt piled on top of debt, and nothing but a huge blind spot in the range of vision of economists, edged on by those who seek to profit from a nation’s taxpayers being dragged down further towards servitude. That you could boost a broke economy be making it more broke, or even risk doing so, is insanity squared, but it’s also what every economics textbook says should be done.

In a few days, another fake Economic Nobel (Fauxbel) will be awarded to another clown or comic troupe with some utterly useless theory, their field lauded as a science without ever obeying even the most basic scientific principles. And some day people will ask: ‘what were they thinking?’, but they’ll have to ask their questions from cardboard shovels and corrugated shanty towns.

The fast rising right-of-Merkel Alternative for Deutschland party will grab onto today’s bad bad data (25% plunge in new car sales, 8.8% less capital goods (machinery etc.) produced, factory orders down 5.7%, overall industrial production down 4% MoM) to demand protection for Germans, and less, not more, Berlin involvement in the EU and eurozone.

At the – well, ok, arguably – worst point in euro history, with all other ‘solutions’ failed and debt levels higher than ever, Mario Draghi wants to raise those levels even more. Merkel doesn’t have the political room to allow him to, because she doesn’t have the economic room anymore. As soon as she announces some, any, cut in domestic services, the AfD and other voices will clamor: cut the Greeks first.

France is gasping for breath, Italy is on life support, Greece, Cyprus and Spain are in the emergency room, and Europe’s German engine has just quit. A 500+ million ‘union’ with no steering wheel and no engine is on its way to the brink of a deep cliff. Someone’s going to jump ship, no question about it. The Germans themselves might be the first.

Nobody in Europe has anything to lose from the demise of the eurozone, at least nothing that they wouldn’t lose anyway, but every single European save for a cabal of power brokers and narcissists has a ton and a half of happiness and self-fulfillment and independence to lose from the continuation of the failed project. Luckily for them, the German data promise to bring the merciful end that much closer.

What’s wrong with the EU is the same as what’s wrong with NATO, the IMF, the World Bank. They are institutions that start with noble ideals, but soon start to gobble up ever more power, and with no-one to hold them to account. That kind of structure in turn attracts a certain kind of people, the ones who don’t like to be held to account.

And though I’m a little hesitant to include the US in all this, since it”s so much older, I certainly wouldn’t discard Washington offhand as a place where the wrong kind of people have gathered far too much power.

Home Forums Germany’s Bad Numbers Are Great News For All Of Us

This topic contains 9 replies, has 5 voices, and was last updated by  XYZ 4 years, 7 months ago.

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  • #15661

    DPC St. Mary’s Canal parade, Sault Sainte Marie, MI 1905 Something’s happening in Europe that I would like to cheer and encourage at the top of my lun
    [See the full post at: Germany’s Bad Numbers Are Great News For All Of Us]

    #15667

    Raleigh
    Participant

    John Day – thanks for your responses. Good to know there are a few drugs that can potentially fight Ebola. I guess the quicker you get on those drugs, the better. For everyone else interested, this is a good graphic of what happens in the body (Stages of Hemorrhagic Fever). Two clicks of the “Next” button says this:

    “Incubation
    Lasts two to 21 days, but most often four to 10 days before symptoms suddenly appear.

    Cell invasion strategy
    Ebola is a filovirus, a tiny filament of proteins covering a single strand of genetic material, RNA, which carries only seven genes that code for viral reproduction and defense against the host’s immune system.
    The virus binds to a cell’s surface, where it enters, surrounded by cell membrane.
    Proteins coating the virus spring open the membrane, allowing virus RNA to enter the cell and begin replicating.
    Exit from the cell isn’t fully understood, but virus particles seem to collect at the cell surface and protrude, exiting with perhaps a host envelope.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/health/ebola-effect-on-body/

    This is a very nasty virus.

    #15668

    John Day
    Participant

    Thanks Raleigh,
    I put in a lot of responses on yesterday’s post, pretty late, I know, and I tried to break them into topics. The link to the graph of time from exposure to symptoms is very useful. About 90% are symptomatic by 10 days.
    What is very interesting is the novel twists that viruses can take.
    Hantavirus is a good example. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hantavirus
    I worked in Chinle Az. from 1990-1992, and visited in 1993, when this weird pulmonary syndrome was killing Navajo people, and fast. I talked to my doctor friends at my hospital and the referral center.
    The case was not cracked until a Medicine Man was consulted, and he said, “The mice are thirsty, they are going to the houses”.
    Hantavirus, always transmitted through rodent excrement in Asia, was discovered to be excreted in the urine of thirsty mice, who were going to houses to find water in the drought. Their urine dried, aerosolized and was inhaled, suddenly killing people as their lungs became inflamed and filled with fluid.
    I’ve had 28 years as a doctor, and in a lot of different settings, and I NEVER think I know all the details.
    None of us should think we know about this strain of Ebola until we have a good answer about what happened in Madrid, with transmission in a very carefully prepared (not respiratory isolation, though) hospital.

    #15669

    Raleigh
    Participant

    Good article, Ilargi. The EU had a good run of it, didn’t they? The North benefited, but so did the South, and the elites had a field day. It’s always hard for people to cut their losses. I know, I’ve been like a deer in the headlights a few times in my life. You keep thinking that a little more time might solve the problem, but it rarely does. If the rest of the world wasn’t deflating, perhaps the Germans might have been persuaded to do a little more, but everybody’s going down, including them. As far as you’ve laid things out, Merkel really has no choice but to end it. Everyone will probably blame Germany again, but she ought to be used to it by now.

    Can’t happen fast enough.

    #15671

    Professorlocknload
    Participant

    “The Quickening” continues to accelerate. Must agree, the sooner it’s all over, the better.

    The only thing I find unsettling about it is, the French have Nukes.

    #15672

    John Day
    Participant

    The US Army is putting up a concertina wire perimeter and building a field-hospital in Liberia, experiencing weather and equipment-failure delays.
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2782856/Is-fence-people-patients-U-S-troops-set-Ebola-field-hospital-Liberia-start-barbed-wire-perimeter.html
    Also in this article is information about the cameraman with Ebola. Ashoka Mukpo is the “son” of Chogyam Trungpa, who made a big impact in the West, bringing in Tibetan Buddhism, linked to sex, drugs, rock and roll.
    Scroll down for lots of pics of “Trungpa Rinpoche”. Ashoka’s “real dad”, still alive, is a physician whose heart sank when he heard his son tell of the fever.

    #15674

    Raleigh
    Participant

    John Day – I had only seen your post from two days ago and your first post from yesterday. Just now saw the rest. Fantastic work! I’m going to take your advice on taking 2000 – 5000 units/day of Vitamin D. Thanks.

    Very interesting to read your comments re the Hantavirus from mice (knew someone who got that), especially the fact that it was the Medicine Man who provided such great information. Sometimes what is passed down from generation to generation is very important. It reminds me of the indigenous peoples in Thailand who, seeing the water just before the tsunami hit in 2004, and remembering what their ancestors had told them about water like that, brought their boats in and fled into the hills with their families and survived.

    One study I just read mentioned pigs as a great host for Ebola, and the way that pigs are affected with Ebola is through their lungs and respiratory tract. This is most likely how the monkeys got infected by the piglets, aerosol transmission. I wonder how the pigs are faring in these African countries.

    “Pigs are remarkably versatile animals when it comes to acquiring and transmitting infections,” said Tara Smith from the University of Iowa, who studies emerging infectious diseases and was not involved in this study. “They have been implicated in the spread of a variety of nasty zoonotic viruses: influenzas, Nipah virus, possibly Hendra virus, and now at least two types of Ebola.”

    In pigs, Ebola mainly infects the lungs and airways, which makes them well-suited to spreading the virus through the air.”

    https://www.the-scientist.com/?articles.view/articleNo/33277/title/Ebola-from-Pigs-to-Monkeys/

    Another study said that what’s been observed is doctors and nurses hugging people who have survived Ebola. They’re wondering if this is a good practice, especially when they’ve said that it survives in sperm for up to 7 weeks (maybe it survives elsewhere). Also, they said that some people are asymptomatic. People might assume that they can’t get it from the guy who appears perfectly healthy beside them, when, yes, they could. Maybe the person they’re hugging and shaking hands with has the disease, but they just don’t know it. Like, with Polio:

    “Polio can be classified as either symptomatic or asymptomatic. About 95% of all cases display no symptoms (asymptomatic polio), and between 4% and 8% of cases display symptoms (symptomatic polio).”

    And:

    “Most people infected with the poliovirus have no signs of illness and are never aware they have been infected. These symptomless people carry the virus in their intestines and can “silently” spread the infection to thousands of others before the first case of polio paralysis emerges. For this reason, WHO considers a single confirmed case of polio paralysis to be evidence of an epidemic – particularly in countries where very few cases occur.”

    https://www.polioeradication.org/Polioandprevention.aspx

    Some people are definitely surviving Ebola just fine, they don’t get too sick and leave. I’m wondering if you think some people might be asymptomatic and could possibly pass on the disease because of the unsanitary conditions? Thanks.

    #15675

    John Day
    Participant

    Here is the best article I have found discussing the real knowns and unknowns of Ebola transmission, particularly among primates. A lot of chimps had to be euthanized because they were getting Ebola virus from each other in separate cages of a research facility. It appeared to be aerosol transmission.
    The CDC is breaking ranks between the scientists and politicians here. It’s important.
    I defer to those interviewed here. They have direct knowledge.
    https://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-ebola-questions-20141007-story.html#page=1

    #15676

    John Day
    Participant

    Ilargi,
    I am hopeful that Germany will act rationally.
    Germany has the capacity to act rationally.
    I like Germany. Germans are a mainly no-bullshit kind of people.
    🙂

    #15684

    XYZ
    Participant

    To Professorlocknload

    I often tend to agree with your views, but the mention of French nukes in relation to the euro crisis was beyond the pale.

    XYZ

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