Spain Archives - The Automatic Earth

Absolute bombshell. Col. Macgregor predicts Putin has already delivered a terrifying ultimatum to Netanyahu: If Israel dares to use a nuclear weapon in the Middle East, Russia will drop a nuclear weapon on Israel. The US has no idea what it just walked into. pic.twitter.com/TEkmslZXXa
— Furkan Gözükara (@FurkanGozukara) March 22, 2026

Col. Macgregor predicts the total collapse of the American empire in the Middle East. He says Arab monarchies will fall to popular uprisings, the US will be completely expelled, and Israel will be systematically destroyed day after day. pic.twitter.com/TI8KOBBmoB
— Furkan Gözükara (@FurkanGozukara) March 22, 2026

Former FBI agent John Guandolo breaks down Islam in under 3 minutes—and he nails the core doctrine without apology.

He explains: The entire purpose of Islam, according to all authoritative Islamic sources, is to establish an Islamic state (caliphate) across the entire world… pic.twitter.com/QDZKKnVEhW
— Yossi BenYakar (@YossiBenYakar) March 22, 2026

The Crusades were not random wars of aggression. The Crusades were the Eastern Christian response to centuries of Islamic conquest. They were primarily defensive wars.

In early Christianity there were five centers of high authority: Rome, Alexandria, Constantine, Antioch, and… pic.twitter.com/wvLhFVjH4M
— Natasha Montreal (@NatashaMontreal) March 22, 2026

Christopher Hitchens on Islam:

”Resist it while you still can, and before the right to complain is taken away from you, which will be the next thing. You will be told you can’t complain because you are ‘Islamophobic’.” pic.twitter.com/gl8wSOBnK6
— Taya (@travelingflying) March 22, 2026

https://twitter.com/AdamMoczar/status/2035822308208660516?s=20 https://twitter.com/Alinavisooo/status/2035954387722674253?s=20

For 300 years the Muslim Turks were stealing kids from their mothers and putting taxes on the Christians. Before Jizya, in Greece we had the "haraç" (charatsi). It was a form of land tax imposed by the Muslim Turks on "non-Muslim subjects", from the 15th century until the… https://t.co/G7hWhfqZEq pic.twitter.com/BO4VcEbutv
— Homer Pavlos (@HomerPavlos) March 23, 2026

“.. that’s what investors do: They overreact to good news — and they overreact to bad news. In their minds, the most extreme possibility is always the most likely..”

• 4D Chess: Trump Postpones Destroying Iran’s Power Plants (Pinsker)

On Friday evening, President Donald Trump issued Iran’s mullahs a 48-hour deadline: Open the Strait of Hormuz or say goodbye to your power plants. And then, this morning — just 12 hours before the deadline ended — the president abruptly pulled the plug: But did you notice the timing? Trump delivered the ultimatum on Friday evening, after the U.S. markets had closed for the week. And he canceled his ultimatum on Monday morning, just before the U.S. markets reopened. And the new five-day deadline? Why, it conveniently begins after the U.S. markets close on Friday! None of this was coincidental. Meanwhile, Iran quickly claimed victory:
https://twitter.com/iribnews_irib/status/2036043430011208003
As NDTV World reported, “After Trump’s No-Strike Decision, Iran Media Bursts Out Laughing at Him”: Trump’s announcement about a five-day window in which the US would hold off on hitting Iranian power plants and related infrastructure was met in Tehran’s media ecosystem with a mix of derision and triumph. Iran media Press TV reported there was no contact for talks with the US, whether direct or indirect. […] Ebrahim Rezaei, spokesperson of the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, in a post on X said, “Trump and America have backed down again. The field is still charging forward. Another defeat for the devil.” President Trump prides himself on being an elite dealmaker, but deals are only possible when each side covets something different. If all parties want the exact same thing, a compromise is impossible.
At this juncture in the war, the Iranians and the U.S.-Israelis have dramatically different objectives.Iran can’t go toe-to-toe with its foes militarily. It’s outgunned, outmatched, outclassed, outmanned, and overwhelmed. If the war is decided on the battlefield, Iran will lose — and embarrassingly, too. But there’s still one place where it can win: the arena of public opinion. Iran needs PR to decide this war. If the mullahs don’t look strong, tough, and unbeatable, the Iranian people will rise up and overthrow them. Which is why, in their minds, losing the war-war — but winning the PR war — is a perfectly acceptable outcome. After all, the number-one goal of a dictatorship is to retain its power.
President Trump is less concerned with PR than he is with reality. War, by its nature, isn’t won with press releases — but with bullets. Which makes the president’s calculations clear: He needs time to obliterate the last vestiges of the mullahs’ might, annihilate its stormtroopers, crush the regime, and maximize the probability of a successful Iranian uprising. Because if we win the war-war, the PR war will take care of itself. From Trump’s perspective, victory is the only litmus test that matters. But Trump needs a free hand to continue softening the Iranian regime. Yes, his primary battlefield is still the battlefield — but not even the president is immune to public pressure. Domestically, his MAGA base hasn’t left his side:

There's no break in MAGA. Trump's approval with MAGA GOP is literally 100%.

90% of MAGA GOP approve of US military action in Iran.

Those who disapprove of Trump are not MAGA at this point.

Importantly: MAGA makes up the same share of voters as it did when Trump won in 2024. pic.twitter.com/LqMRHm8t1B
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) March 18, 2026

Yet among independents and Democrats, the war is dreadfully unpopular — with its biggest potential pain points coming from surging oil prices and/or a stock market collapse: Had Trump stuck to his 48-hour deadline — which would’ve elapsed AFTER the close of U.S. markets on Monday evening — panicked investors would’ve braced for the worst when trading began at 9:30 a.m., triggering a self-fulfilling prophecy of economic Armageddon. They would’ve anticipated oil shortages, starving civilians, mass migrations, and global chaos, because that’s what investors do: They overreact to good news — and they overreact to bad news. In their minds, the most extreme possibility is always the most likely. (It’s simply their psychology.) This means that Monday, March 23, would’ve been an absolute financial bloodbath — an even blacker Black Monday.

It’ll be ugly. But how ugly?

• IEA Head Warns Iran War Sparked Energy Crisis Worse Than 1970s (ZH)

The head of the International Energy Agency intensified his apocalyptic warning about the global energy crisis, stating early Monday that the US-Israel war with Iran has sparked a shock far greater than the twin oil crises of the 1970s and the turmoil from the war in Ukraine combined.US-Israeli Operation Epic Fury has entered its fourth week, and emerging from the fog of war is the understanding that 44 energy assets across the Gulf region have been severely or very severely damaged by either U.S. and allied forces or by Iranian forces, according to IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol, who spoke at a media event in Australia on Monday. “This crisis, as things stand, is now two oil crises and one gas crash put all together,” Birol warned at the National Press Club of Australia in Canberra.

So far, the conflict has removed 11 million barrels of oil per day from global supply, which is more than the two prior oil shocks combined. There are concerns that repairs to QatarEnergy’s damaged LNG facility could take up to five years, while the disruption to energy flows has sparked a fuel crisis across Asia and is set to affect fertilizer and food supplies, as well as helium, potentially jeopardizing AI chip production.”The global economy is facing a major, major threat today, and I very much hope that this issue will be resolved as soon as possible,” Birol said.
As of 0710 ET, Brent crude futures plunged 11% on President Trump’s Truth Social desesclation comments – a sign the administration needs an offramp to avoid a further energy crisis globally, but more importantly, one at home with fuel prices at the pump exploding higher. Overnight, President Trump gave Iran a 48-hour ultimatum to reopen the Hormuz chokepoint or face a bombing campaign targeting Iran’s power plants. There were reports overnight that the Trump administration was preparing a diplomatic off-ramp plan, but Iran says the expanding war has effectively shut the door.
Betting website Polymarket shows that ten new wallets are betting $160,000 on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire by the end of March. “Almost no history, all created around the same time. Potential payout: over $1,000,000,” the Polymarket History account wrote on X.
https://twitter.com/PolymarketStory/status/2035737368141902238
On Friday, Birol told the Financial Times in an exclusive interview that the world is severely underestimating the scale of the Gulf energy shock and that it may take at least six months to restore disrupted oil and gas flows. “It will be six months for some [sites] to be operational, others much longer,” Birol warned.

“..accepting there is a psychological component to the information flow, it seems like the best option to listen to the experts who are conducting the operation.”

• CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper Gives Update and Overview Interview (CTH)

The noise can seem overwhelming at times. There are those who say the U.S-Israeli joint military operation against Iran is a catastrophic miscalculation. There are those who say the operation is strategically succeeding. Many interests even appear to be cheering for the military operation to fail; others want the operation to escalate. It is difficult to find pragmatic facts about the events without shaped information to promote specific narratives. However, accepting there is a psychological component to the information flow, it seems like the best option to listen to the experts who are conducting the operation.

Giving his first interview since Operation Epic Fury began, CENTCOM Commander Bradley Cooper outlines the current status of the conflict and the elements he notes are of most importance. According to Adm. Cooper, Iran is “operating in a sign of desperation… In the last couple of weeks, they’ve attacked civilian targets very deliberately, more than 300 times.” “The Strait of Hormuz is physically open to transit,” he said. “The reason ships are not transiting right now is because the Islamic Republic is shooting at them with drones and missiles.”
“I’d like everyone to note is I’ve watched this over the last week, this extraordinary contrast between the comfort and protection that you’re seeing with the senior generals in the Islamic Republic, at least those that are still alive, who are up in deep bunkers and facilities in and around Tehran. And contrast that with the soldiers who are down on the ground who are unprotected. The generals are protected. The soldiers are not protected.” “They’re launching missiles and drones from populated areas and you need to stay inside for right now,” he said. “There will be a clear signal at some point, as the President has indicated, for you to be able to come out.”

Iran against the Arab world?

• Saudi Arabia Expels Iranian Diplomats (RT)

Saudi Arabia has expelled several Iranian diplomats, citing Tehran’s strikes on its territory. The move comes after 12 Arab and Muslim countries, including those hosting US bases, denounced the Islamic Republic’s retaliation for the US-Israeli bombardment that began on February 28. On Saturday, the Saudi Foreign Ministry condemned what it described as Iran’s “blatant and repeated attacks targeting Saudi Arabia” and other Gulf countries, accusing Tehran of violating international law and the “principles of good neighborliness.” “Saudi Arabia has formally notified the Iranian military attaché, assistant military attaché, and three other embassy staff members to leave the kingdom within 24 hours,” the statement read, as quoted by the Saudi Gazette.

‘The kingdom will take all necessary measures to protect its sovereignty, security, territory, airspace, citizens, residents, and national interests, in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter,” the ministry said, warning of “serious consequences” for diplomatic relations between the two countries. The announcement follows a similar move by Qatar, which expelled Iranian military and security attachés, along with their staff, in response to a strike on an LNG facility at Ras Laffan Industrial City, one of the world’s most important gas processing and export centers. Iran targeted Ras Laffan in response to Israeli airstrikes on the South Pars gas field, which were also condemned by the Gulf states. Iran has also repeatedly targeted Prince Sultan Air Base in Al Kharj, Saudi Arabia, which hosts American troops.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran was targeting US military sites in the region in self-defense. He also claimed that the United States had used UAE territory during the recent bombing of Kharg Island. Tehran has warned that retaliation will continue for as long as Arab states allow the US to use their territory for attacks on the Islamic Republic. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian earlier apologized to the Gulf states for striking civilian infrastructure with missiles and drones.

“This is Hitler’s last days with Persian characteristics.” —LH Grey on X

• Lights Out? (James Howard Kunstler)

It’s not only darkest before the dawn, but the groupthink is murkiest, and the light at the end of the tunnel might be an explosion up your wazoo. Iran’s increasingly headless Revolutionary Guard (the IRGC) whirls in its gyre of martyrdom as the last traps are sprung under it. Tell the wide-eyed houris of paradise to primp for a fresh harvest of true believers.Looks like Mr. Trump is not chickening-out, as his detractors like to insist. Looks like somebody is already turning off the juice around Tehran, likely the Israeils. It will be very hard soon enough for the headless IRGC to tell its body of psycho-killers what to do.

Individual units are probably on their own now, anyway, wondering what the other units might be doing. . . might be thinking, while also, about now, the sore-beset, long-suffering, good-and-goshdarn pissed off, ordinary Persians will discover that nobody’s in charge, and maybe, at long last, it’s their turn to act, as the lights flicker out. On the ground, in the apartments, the cafes, the offices, the grand bazaars of Tehran, Isfahan, Tabriz, and Shiraz life has already gotten super-impossible. Whatever’s left of the government just issued banknotes in the denomination of ten million rials, worth seven US dollars.
Everybody there has plenty of money. Everyone is a millionaire, but they won’t be swanning around Fereshteh Street in top hats and monocles, shopping for Hermès, Louis Vuitton, and Rolex. In actuality, nothing can function normally anymore when the currency is absolutely worthless, including the regular distribution of food and fuel, and you know from history that revolution is always only nine missing meals away. Something will have to give.
The American news media, especially The New York Times, remains implacably peevish over Operation Epic Fury. The news media remains locked in its own epic fury at Mr. Trump running the executive branch, because, uh, why? The tweets! The mystifying hair-do! The gold filigree plastered around the Oval Office! Ucchhh. . . ! It drives them batshit. They want the Iran op to fail because then Mr. Trump will fail. . . and then. . .? And then. . . ? You detect that maybe they haven’t thought that through exactly.
Perhaps the news media believe it’s unfair to deprive the Islamic State of a nuclear bomb and its arsenal of missiles and drones. (It can’t be that the news media are anti-war because they continue to be one hundred percent behind the Ukraine war.) They don’t want that to end anytime soon because, uh, well, Russia!) In reality, the news media abhors decisive action and especially any change in the geopolitical status quo, and super-especially one that inch-by-inch reveals that the USA has interests that actually intersect with the interests of post-soviet Russia.
Like preserving Western Civ. Unlike the poufs, cucks, and bozos running Euroland who are busy throwing two thousand years of history under the wheels of Jihad, and racing with eyes-wide-shut into a neo-medieval future without heat, lights, industry, art, or square meals. Europe — Great Britain in particular — yearns for an epoch-ending spasm of war against Russia because. . .uh. . . because Putin (like, because Trump). You understand they are completely incapable of prosecuting such a war, since they lack armies, navies, and sufficient weapons, but they can’t stop nattering about it.
The US news media can’t accept the possibility that the US Military is proceeding systematically and by clear stages to disarm the IRGC crazies. What has the IRGC got left? Apparently, they have missile launchers embedded in urban neighborhoods, the old human shield routine, same as Hamas and Hezbollah. And spidey-hole missile silos in the desert, supposedly hard to detect beneath the shifting sands. Not to mention the “underground cities” as much as 500 meters deep where missiles and drones are made and stored. They are core parts of Iran’s military architecture. We know where most of them are. Let’s see how they work if the electricity goes out across Iran. Do they all have backup generators and diesel fuel to keep the generators running more than a few days?

“We’re using a playbook that in a slightly different form was used in 1964 to overcome a cloture gap of thirty-two votes..”

• Are We On the Verge of a Breakthrough on the SAVE America Act? (Matt Margolis)

I’ve been admittedly skeptical that the current effort to pass the SAVE America Act will succeed. I want it to pass. Desperately. And from where I sit, there’s no reason why it shouldn’t pass. But we all know why something so popular and commonsense can’t get to President Donald Trump’s desk for his signature. Democrats in Congress don’t want election integrity and are fighting against it like their power is on the line. Despite my skepticism, Senator Mike Lee (R-Utah), the lead sponsor of the bill, is confident the SAVE America Act is going to pass — and after just six days of debate, Democrats may already be looking for a way out.

As you know, the bill does two things. It requires proof of citizenship when registering to vote and a voter ID when casting a ballot. Polls repeatedly show that Americans overwhelmingly support these ideas, regardless of political party or race. And Sen. Lee knows it, too. “Americans overwhelmingly believe that voters in the United States, you need to be US citizens,” Lee said. “So our bill does two things in order to make it easy to vote and hard to cheat.”The fight right now isn’t really about the merits. Let’s be honest about that. It’s about the Senate’s cloture threshold, the 60-vote supermajority needed to end debate and move to a final vote. Republicans don’t have those numbers on their own, which means they need Democrats to break ranks.
Lee’s strategy is to make them do exactly that, and he’s drawing on a historical playbook to get it done.”We’re using a playbook that in a slightly different form was used in 1964 to overcome a cloture gap of thirty-two votes,” Lee said, referring to the landmark Civil Rights Act debate. Back then, the Senate debated for sixty days before enough votes materialized to close debate. Today’s cloture deficit is far smaller. “We’ve got only a ten-vote cloture deficit to overcome here,” Lee noted. “This is a simpler bill, and it’s preferred by eighty-five percent of American voters.”
The math is encouraging, but Lee argues that the process takes time — and that’s entirely the point. Lee described how sustained debate wears members down and eventually forces movement. “Members grow exhausted over time, and with that exhaustion, we’ll find ways of achieving consensus, perhaps some minor modifications to the legislation, either face-saving or to alleviate substantive concerns,” he said. “We can get there. This will pass if we give it enough time.” He was careful not to overpromise a timeline. “I don’t know exactly how many weeks, just as they didn’t know when they started the process in 1964,” Lee acknowledged. But he added quickly: “I don’t think it’ll take that long.”
According to Lee, the early signs are apparently promising. After only six days on the floor, he says Democrats are reportedly already hunting for an exit, which tells you something about the political pressure building around this vote. The only secret to passing the SAVE America Act, Lee says, is time and willpower. Six days in, it looks like the willpower is holding — and the clock is doing the rest of the work.
The only secret to passing the SAVE America Act is time and willpower.

The Civil Rights Act of 1964 was passed after a 72 day filibuster.

After only 6 days on the Senate floor, Democrats are already looking for an exit.

Don’t let up. pic.twitter.com/5aICF4aa0R
— Mike Lee (@SenMikeLee) March 22, 2026

Withheld them from Trump, that is.

• Intel Board To Probe If Spy Agencies Withheld China Election Secrets (JTN)

The civilian board that oversees America’s spy agencies will probe whether political bias kept intelligence analysts from sharing with Congress and President Donald Trump evidence that China meddled in elections dating to 2020, its chairman says after an explosive report by Just the News “We ran a decade-long investigation in the Congress into China, and so this new bombshell that you just dropped is very concerning to me, and it should be to the Congress,” President’s Intelligence Advisory Board Chairman Devin Nunes told the Just the News, No Noise television show.

“This information was likely around in 2019, probably in 2020. I don’t know. We’re going to have to unpack this and figure out why this didn’t get to the Congress and why this didn’t get out to the American public,” Nunes said. Nunes, a former chairman of the House Intelligence Committee before he left Congress to run the company that operates President Donald Trump’s Truth Social platform, added: “Clearly, this is a scandal that’s brewing.” Nunes was named last year by Trump to lead the PIAB, a nonpartisan body made up of distinguished civilians from the national security, political, academic, and private sectors charged with independently overseeing the Intelligence Community’s day-to-day management or operational responsibilities.
Just the News earlier this week disclosed declassified documents showing Chinese intelligence gained access to multiple states’ voter registration data in 2020 and conducted some voter influence efforts but chose to keep that intelligence quiet because spy agency analysts opposed Trump and his policies, even deriding the president as “that vulgarian in the Oval Office.”Similar revelations in 2024 that China hacked Great Britain’s voter registration database led to a national outcry and reforms in that country. But in America, most policymakers have been kept in the dark. Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations Subcommittee Chairman Ron Johnson, R-Wis., called on Trump this week to declassify and release all evidence related to China’s meddling from 2020 forward.
Nunes said a review of what happened with the China meddling allegations was directly aligned with the board’s current mandates. “We’ve been working directly with the CIA to depoliticize all of these agencies. President Trump gave us clear direction that he wants the politicization taken out of these intelligence products,” Nunes explained. The board’s effort recently prompted CIA Director John Ratcliffe to rescind or revise 19 intelligence reports the agency produced dating back to the Obama era because they were politically biased or used poor spy tradecraft, including one analysis suggesting that women who pursue traditional motherhood were at danger of becoming violent extremists.
“I think this is just the start of Director Ratcliffe trying to clean up the CIA,” he said. “Obviously, we’re here to help. We’re held here to help all the agencies as Chair of the President’s intelligence board, and we’ll continue to do that.” Nunes said the declassified documents uncovered by Just the News on the China election meddling were deeply concerning because “if you don’t have the — if you want to call it the truth transparency — real intelligence agencies getting the information to the policymakers and the decision makers, it’s a major problem.”

We need to see indictments. You can’t just let these people walk.

• Truth Will Out: A Grand Jury Investigates the Real Russian Collusion Conspiracy (Turley)

This week, we learned that the probe into the Russian conspiracy theory in Florida is moving forward with the disclosure that former FBI Director James Comey has been subpoenaed. What is different in this probe is that it is pursuing the real Russia conspiracy — the creation of a false narrative to kneecap the first Trump administration. At issue is what could be the greatest political hit job in history. Of course, the growing evidence of this conspiracy continues to be buried by one of its key components: the media. Nevertheless, the “truth will out,” and it appears to be coming out in Florida.

Headed by Jason A. Reding Quiñones, the U.S. attorney for the Southern District of Florida, the investigation is building on information uncovered by House and Senate committees that was long buried by the Biden administration. That evidence appears to show a knowing effort to manufacture a Russian conspiracy hoax at the urging of Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign. Ironically, the Washington Post and the New York Times received Pulitzer Prizes for their reporting promoting this Russian conspiracy hoax. The media spent years in wall-to-wall coverage of disproven allegations, including many claims made in the debunked Steele Dossier that had been secretly funded by the Clinton campaign.
The true Pulitzer Prize-worthy story was staring the media in the face the whole time: a conspiracy to create a false conspiracy narrative to elect Clinton and later to derail the Trump administration. The latter effort succeeded with help from top intelligence figures. During the election, the Clinton campaign repeatedly lied to the media about its funding of the Steele dossier. When journalists discovered after the election that the Clinton campaign had hidden payments for the Steele dossier as “legal fees” among the $5.6 million paid to Perkins Coie, they were reportedly stonewalled.
New York Times reporter Ken Vogel said at the time that Clinton Campaign General Counsel Marc Elias had denied involvement in the anti-Trump dossier. When Vogel tried to report the story, he said, Elias “pushed back vigorously, saying ‘You (or your sources) are wrong.’” Times reporter Maggie Haberman later wrote that “Folks involved in funding this lied about it, and with sanctimony, for a year.” The key period was shortly before the 2016 election. We now know that the campaign and its surrogates shopped the conspiracy to their contacts in the Justice Department and in the media. They found eager allies.
Shortly before the 2016 presidential election, Peter Strzok, a key figure in the investigation, texted FBI lawyer Lisa Page to assure her “that there’s no way [Trump] gets elected,” adding that they “can’t take that risk.” He added that they had it all in hand because “It’s like an insurance policy in the unlikely event you die before you’re 40.” In fact, whether it was known to Strzok or not, there was an insurance policy in the works. In July 2016, then-CIA Director John Brennan briefed President Barack Obama on Hillary Clinton’s alleged “plan” to tie then-candidate Donald Trump to Russia as “a means of distracting the public from her use of a private email server.” Brennan is believed to be a target of the current investigation, including possible perjury before Congress.
In reality, within days of that briefing on how Clinton would create this conspiracy theory, the investigation began, just as the Clinton campaign hoped it would. Early on, the FBI was told by the CIA that its sources — and the Steele dossier — were unreliable. However, key FBI officials continued the surveillance and the investigation targeting the Trump campaign and key figures. One official later pleaded guilty to lying to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act court to continue surveillance without an evidentiary basis.
At the end of 2016, a CIA assessment found that “Russian and criminal actors did not impact recent U.S. election results by conducting malicious cyber activities against election infrastructure.” That presidential daily brief was scheduled to be published on Dec. 9, 2016, but the office of James Clapper, Obama’s Director of National Intelligence, reportedly stopped the publication “based on some new guidance.” Clapper later joined Obama, along with John Brennan, Susan Rice, John Kerry, Loretta Lynch, Andrew McCabe, and others, in a meeting that would ultimately inject the debunked theory directly into the media.

“..CNN needs to build a narrative, so the reality of simple explanations works against their interests.”

• Tom Homan: How Immigration and Customs Enforcement Can Supplement TSA (CTH)

Apparently, CNN needs to play the game of pretending that Customs and Border Protection (CBP) as well as Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) do not already operate in U.S. airports. Airports are border checkpoints, and the “customs” part of both ICE and CBP are functions that happen as part of regular duty for CBP and ICE officials.As Tom Homan notes, CBP/ICE already exist in airports and can assist Transportation Security Administration (TSA) officials in various duties including, customs checks, routine security, entrance/exit security as well as baggage and pre-boarding security checkpoints that do not involve the use of x-ray and scanning machines. In fact, more than half the functioning work of TSA agents can easily be handled/supported by ICE/CBP agents. But CNN needs to build a narrative, so the reality of simple explanations works against their interests.

Too late. “..900,000 Moroccan nationals were living in Spain in 2024..” “What is now causing alarm is not just the scale, but the potential for political mobilization.”

• Alarm Bells In Spain As Moroccan Diaspora Seeks Political Mobilization (RMX)

Spain is facing mounting concern over the long-term consequences of years of large-scale Moroccan migration, as warnings grow that a sizable and increasingly organized community could begin to exert coordinated political influence. Official figures cited by La Región show that nearly 900,000 Moroccan nationals were living in Spain in 2024, making them the largest Muslim group in the country. More than 226,000 are concentrated in Catalonia, with numbers continuing to rise sharply. What is now causing alarm is not just the scale, but the potential for political mobilization.

The Spanish news outlet referenced a 2023 speech by Enaam Mayara, then-president of the Moroccan parliament’s upper chamber, in which he openly called on Moroccans living in Spain to enter politics, join parties, and take part in elections. His goal was clear: to build influence inside Spanish institutions and defend Moroccan national interests from within. “The community in our northern neighbor should be encouraged to participate in that country’s political process,” Mayara said. “Members of the Moroccan community should be encouraged to become members of parliament in the country of their nationality in order to defend the interests of their homeland whenever necessary.” “The Moroccan community must integrate into Spanish political parties to form a lobby that defends Morocco,” he added.
The comments sparked fears that what began as migration could evolve into coordinated political leverage. More recently, Morocco has moved to strengthen its grip on diaspora identity through education. Earlier this month, in response to the suspension of the Arabic language and Moroccan culture program in the Spanish regions of Madrid and Murcia, Moroccan Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita called for reforms to overseas teaching programs that could trigger a “qualitative transformation” in how Arabic language and Moroccan culture are taught to children living abroad.
The changes will place greater responsibility for diaspora education under a new institutional structure, with a focus on expanding cultural and linguistic ties between Morocco and its citizens overseas. The push comes as Moroccan-funded programs are already deeply embedded in Spain’s education system. Hundreds of schools across the country offer Arabic language and Moroccan culture classes financed by Rabat, with teachers selected and paid by Moroccan authorities.

Essentially, they’re being called extreme right wing because they don’t want to live in a muslim country.

• French Election: Le Pen’s Populists Make Historic Local Gains (ZH)

Marine Le Pen’s National Rally delivered its strongest performance ever in French local elections on Sunday, capturing dozens of municipalities and installing an ally as mayor of Nice – while socialists predictably held onto key urban centers, including Paris, Marseille, Lyon and Lille. The results of the second-round municipal vote on Sunday mark the clearest sign yet that the populist party is no longer a protest movement but a genuine governing force in parts of France – and a growing threat to President Emmanuel Macron’s centrists and the traditional right ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

Jordan Bardella, the 30-year-old RN president widely seen as the party’s next presidential standard-bearer, hailed the night as “the greatest breakthrough in its entire history.” Speaking to cheering supporters, he said voters had delivered “a message of deep aspiration for change.”Marine Le Pen, still battling a conviction that could bar her from running in 2027, struck a similar note: the party is now “implanted everywhere” and ready to govern.
https://twitter.com/Inevitablewest/status/2035821656787107861?
high-stakes runoffs in Marseille, Toulon and Nîmes after left-wing and center-right candidates formed tactical alliances against it. In Paris and other major cities, the party remained marginal.The party did secure one major symbolic prize: former Les Républicains leader Éric Ciotti, who defected to the RN orbit, won the mayor’s office in Nice, France’s fifth-largest city.

“.. the European Commission has many tools and techniques to shift the outcome. This single small Hungarian election is the most critical election for the EU since Brexit. There are trillions at stake!”

• Major Gains for Germany’s AfD Nationalist Party (CTH)

Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s conservative party the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) won the biggest portion of the election, defeating the Social Democratic Party (SPD) who lost ground in the western area bordering France. However, the biggest electoral gains were for the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, with gains that more than doubled its previous vote share. There is intense interest throughout Europe on the ideological shift in political sentiment mostly driven by economic concerns as well as rising nationalistic sentiment against the elitist minds in Brussels. Essentially those being ‘ruled’ are increasingly fed-up by those doing the ‘ruling.’

The AfD party is akin to the pragmatic MAGA base more focused on economic nationalism than all the nonsense associated with multiculturalism, green energy programs and terrible immigration policy. The ideological battle within Europe is ongoing, with some gains by nationalist parties over the collective mindset of the European elites. However, the European Commission doesn’t just have a finger on the scales, they have full control over the mechanics of the elections themselves. Yes, AfD doubled their share of votes to 20%, but CDU at 31% and the socialists at 26% is akin to mainstream corporate republicans and progressives respectively controlling 57% of the support base.
The biggest election to be held in Europe in the last decade or more, is going to be the election in Hungary which takes place April 12, next month. The European Commission is going all-in to try and manipulate the Hungarian voting base against Prime Minister Viktor Orban and the Fidesz party who is/are viewed by Brussels as standing in the way of their scheme to fund the ongoing war in Ukraine. Orban’s reelection campaign has been under relentless assaults from restrictions on EU social media, to outright propaganda and financing for his opposition Péter Magyar and the Tisza party.
Prime Minister Orban is strongly supported by President Donald Trump and the Trump administration; however, the scale of opposition to both of them is intense. Former leftist USAID Administrator Samantha Power spent time inside Hungary organizing the Tisza party to oppose Viktor Orban, and the totality of the European opposition to Orban cannot be underestimated. Every element of every political construct within the Europe Union is aligned to try and defeat Orban and the Fidesz party. Additionally, the government of Ukraine is actively working all intelligence angles to defeat Orban due to the $90 billion EU loan scheme that Hungary is blocking. Prime Minister Viktor Orban winning reelection this time in 2026 would be akin to Trump’s victory in 2016.
Do not underestimate the power of the U.K/European control system and the alignment of all their collective interests. Chancellor Fredrich Merz (Germany), President Emmanuel Macron (France), Prime Minister Keir Starmer (UK) along with the governing elites of Denmark, Finland, Sweden, Norway, Austria, Switzerland, Netherlands and many more, have all publicly taken positions against Hungary. As we saw in Romania, Moldova and Georgia, it is not simply a matter of what the Hungarian voters want that will determine the outcome of the Hungarian election, the European Commission has many tools and techniques to shift the outcome. This single small Hungarian election is the most critical election for the EU since Brexit. There are trillions at stake!

“..a good example of the failure of international law, which is one way to describe a fire while refusing to notice that you’re actually holding a fire extinguisher.”

• Western Europe Wrestles With Its Daddy Issues (Rachel Marsden)

NATO is supposed to be a defensive alliance. That means members aren’t actually obligated to go bail out a member state that goes around the world punching other countries in the face. Easy mistake to make from the optics of other recent conflicts, though, where the term “defensive” has been doing a lot of impressive rhetorical gymnastics.
US President Donald Trump hasn’t been able to talk his ‘allies’ into coming along for the white-knuckle adventure this time. Largely because he threatened to invade Europe – specifically Greenland – barely weeks before asking for their help to do the same to another country. Apparently, they took his threat so seriously that they were getting ready to beat him to the punch by blowing up their own airfields first, according to the New York Times.

Before Trump just decided to go it alone and threaten to fix the global energy problem in the Strait of Hormuz by also blowing up a bunch of power plants in the region, he got to the “who needs these losers anyway” stage with Western Europe. Let’s see… Starmer is no Churchill, Trump says. Sick burn, if it were still 1940 and not just a guy declining participation in your dodgy group project. French participation doesn’t even really count, Trump says, because President Emmanuel Macron will be gone soon. Like a sitcom character whose hand is on the knob with one foot out the door in every scene.
But here in the real world, Macron is actually still the president of France for another year. And it’s not like anyone who could possibly replace him would be up for this political suicide mission that Trump’s proposing, either. Hardly a day goes by without French military brass appearing on TV, either telling Trump to go “f himself” or else comparing his invitation to something along the lines of buying tickets for the Titanic after it hit the iceberg.
The Irish president should just be grateful for Trump’s mere existence, he says. Who isn’t at this point, right? One day Trump’s telling all the NATO allies to just get in the van already. The van’s on fire, but minor detail. And they’re like, no thanks. Not interested in careening down regime change highway with Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu like a scene out of Mad Max.
So at first Trump tries to make it sound like it’s for their own benefit to go send their own troops to hangout in the Strait of Hormuz where missiles are flying around. Because they’re the ones who largely use the oil that normally transits through it when Iran hasn’t closed it because Trump and Bibi started bombing them. A phenomenon that does tend to complicate shipping schedules.
Probably doesn’t help either that Europe already had the experience of volunteering to do the heavy lifting for Washington just so an American president, Barack Obama, could brag to his people that America did a regime change without a single pair of boots on the ground. Right, because there were covert, European boots on the ground. In Libya. Led by the Brits and French, back in 2011. And that turned into a years-long mess for Europe and a migrant tsunami that kept rolling in long after the “mission accomplished” energy had worn off. So it’s no wonder that some of those 15 NATO countries that helped out in Libya aren’t up for a rerun. Once you’ve helped a friend move and it turns into a ten-year renovation project, the next time they call you just let it ring.
So Europe is banking on riding out the fuel disruption instead of prolonging it by getting involved with the risk of provoking an escalation. Unless of course the missiles stop flying. In which case, Macron will be there in a jiffy to film more heavily militarized thirst trap videos.n It’s one thing to not participate, but what are they actually doing to stop it, besides issuing strongly worded statements that reek of déjà vu?
The bloc’s chief diplomat says that it’s all such a good example of the failure of international law, which is one way to describe a fire while refusing to notice that you’re actually holding a fire extinguisher. Conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East “are products of erosion of the international law without accountability, judicial or political, the war will engulf the world once again,” Kaja Kallas said.nGotta love the passive verbiage doing the heavy lifting there. Really lets everyone off the hook. Yeah, international law just eroded on Iran. How did that happen? All by itself? Or because no one can bother actually trying to enforce it when it’s inconvenient because it involves the risk of eliciting the wrath of Daddy Trump?
She has no problem comparing the conflicts in Ukraine and Iran except in failing to notice that that one has involved like 20 packages of EU sanctions and the other zero. Or to notice that their favorite foster kid has been begging Trump to let him come play drone warfare in this war with the toys that they’ve been buying for him with money from the same EU taxpayers who are now being gauged on energy prices yet again as a result of this new war. The same war that the EU says violates international law.
Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky has said that he’s psyched to get over there and play in the sandbox with all his shiny new drones – which is one way to pitch the escalation that the EU says it doesn’t want. And the EU’s like, can’t you see – he’s really hurting here! “The longer the war continues in the Middle East, the more Ukraine suffers,” Kallas said. I’m really trying to lean into this whole Ukraine x Iran crossover. “I mean, Russia is already making money off the war in the Middle East with higher oil prices and the Strait of Hormuz closed, they can now again fund the war.”
Try telling that to your boy, Zelensky. Does he know that offering to help prolong the war with his drones would just be making Putin more money? But really, why should he even care when the EU keeps insisting on having their citizens pay for it all anyway.

He made them rich, but it’s still not enough.

• Jury Finds Musk Liable to Twitter Shareholders in Lawsuit (ET)

A federal jury on March 20 found tech billionaire Elon Musk liable for misleading Twitter shareholders by driving down the social media platform’s stock price months before acquiring it for $44 billion in 2022. The decision follows a civil class action lawsuit filed by Twitter investors in October 2022. Musk agreed to buy Twitter at $54.20 per share in April 2022 but later tried to back out of the deal, leading the company to take legal action to enforce it. He ultimately completed the acquisition in October 2022 and rebranded Twitter as X. The shareholders alleged that Musk made misleading statements after agreeing to buy Twitter in April 2022, leading them to sell their shares. They alleged that he published the statements to drive down Twitter stock prices in a bid to renegotiate the deal.

In a verdict on March 20, jurors found Musk liable for misleading investors through two social media posts. The first post said the deal was temporarily on hold pending verification that bots accounted for less than 5 percent of users on the social media platform. In the second post, Musk suggested that the percentage of bots could exceed 20 percent and said the buyout of Twitter could not go forward until he received confirmation that it was less than 5 percent. However, the jury found that the plaintiffs failed to substantiate claims that Musk had engaged in a scheme to defraud investors. The plaintiffs attorney, Mark Molumphy, called the verdict an important victory for both Twitter investors and the public markets.
“I think the jury’s verdict sends a strong message that just because you’re a rich and powerful person, you still have to obey the law, and no man is above the law, Molumphy told The Associated Press.Musk’s legal team at Quinn Emanuel Urquhart & Sullivan said in a statement to multiple news outlets that they plan to appeal the verdict. “We view today’s verdict, where the jury found both for and against the plaintiffs and found no fraud scheme, as a bump in the road. And we look forward to vindication on appeal,” his legal counsel said.
Musk also faces a lawsuit from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which alleges that he violated federal securities laws by delaying disclosure of his acquisition of Twitter stock in March 2022, before making an offer to buy the company. The SEC said the delay had allowed Musk to buy more shares at lower prices, allowing him to “underpay by at least $150 million for shares that he purchased after his beneficial ownership report was due,” according to the January 2025 filing. Musk has sought dismissal of the suit.

That will be one hell of a building! https://t.co/rCN0TwAlea
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 23, 2026

https://twitter.com/PM_ViktorOrban/status/2036091858829316542?s=20 https://twitter.com/Panchenko_X/status/2036097338179989660?s=20

Discover how long different birds can fly

pic.twitter.com/xo6ii3MNKl
— Science girl (@sciencegirl) March 23, 2026

Overmorrow: the English word for the day after tomorrow pic.twitter.com/eIrwNpAGCn
— English Grammar (@GrammarUpdates) March 23, 2026

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Debt Rattle February 27 2026

Feb 272026

February 27, 2026 Posted by Raúl Ilargi Meijer at 10:58 am Finance Tagged with: AI, Epstein, Greer, Hillary Clinton, Iran, Kash Patel, Mamdani, medicaid, Nebenzia, Nexico, nukes, Spain, Susie Wiles, tariffs, Trump 77 Responses »

Banksy ~~Honey~~ Money pot 1999

• Trump Report Card (John Stossel)

• Triggered and Traumatized by Scenes of Patriotism (Turley)

• Biden FBI Investigated Susie Wiles and Kash Patel Phone Records (CTH)

• White House Withholds Medicaid Funding to Minnesota Amid Fraud Probe (Jung)

• USTR Greer Talks Baseline Tariff Reset Shifts and Reciprocity Tariffs (CTH)

• I’m Ukrainian – Russia’s UN Ambassador (RT)

• Arming Ukraine With Nukes: Western Elites Have ‘Lost Touch With Reality’ (RT)

• US Demands Iran Dismantle Its 3 Main Nuclear Sites In Hours-Long Talks (ZH)

• Epstein Rushed Evidence Into Secret Storage Unit Before Raid (ZH)

• Hillary Clinton to Testify in Epstein Probe on Thursday, Bill Clinton on Friday (JTN)

• Mamdani’s NYC Flirts With Chaos (Ben Shapiro)

• So Hackers Just Stole Mexico’s Tax and Voter Rolls (Stephen Green)

• Spain’s Government: Spinning Out of Control (Drieu Godefridi)

• Even the Best AI Scenario Is the End of Everything We’ve Ever Been (Ring)

The Guardian: Arms dealer Christopher Harborne paid #BorisJohnson a million UK pounds to convince Zelensky not to sign the Istanbul peace deal in March 2022 – which would have spared the lives of an estimated 1.6 million #Ukrainian troops who are now KIA or permanently disabled. pic.twitter.com/Si2xNHwS8w
— Alan Watson (@DietHeartNews) February 25, 2026

https://twitter.com/ThePatriotOasis/status/2026849762180255904?s=20 https://twitter.com/VigilantFox/status/2026862384816550257?s=20 https://twitter.com/MAGAVoice/status/2026557297598804049?s=20 https://twitter.com/TheChiefNerd/status/2027093840289513854?s=20

Chris Cuomo couldn’t hide it — he opened his segment by giving President Trump his dues for what he called a “winner” State of the Union.

CUOMO: “We saw a prodigious production last night.”

“POTUS was on his game.”

“He was looking to engage voters by presiding over a parade of… pic.twitter.com/AojGonBmqU
— Overton (@overton_news) February 26, 2026

Yes https://t.co/cyJ9VgFFcZ
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 26, 2026

It’s my Bday today.

Mostly positive. And you got to see that against the Orange Man Bad background, where nothing at all is positive..

• Trump Report Card (John Stossel)

During his State of the Union, President Donald Trump declared himself wonderful. My new video takes a closer look, scoring his fifth year as president. He deserves an “A” for his willingness to take questions. It’s a relief after President Joe Biden, who hid from reporters. But Trump deserves an “F” for childish bragging. Ignorant, too. He proudly announced he cut drug prices by “400%, 500%, even 600%!” Didn’t he learn math? If he cut prices 100%, drugs would be free. Trump deserves an “A” for ending Biden’s self-destructive, anti-energy policies. On the other hand, Trump has blocked solar and wind projects, even those not government-subsidized. Can’t either party just let the market work?

I’m relieved that the president hasn’t fulfilled my worst fear: He has not acted like a total dictator. He does respond to public opinion. After ICE brutality in Minnesota, he pulled troops out, saying, “We can use a little bit of a softer touch.” And when courts rule against him, he obeys, ending National Guard deployment in Los Angeles, Chicago and Portland, and now searching for court-approved ways to preserve his tariffs. Hysterical media still scream about Trump being “a dictator!” and “authoritarian!” Mises Institute Editor-in-Chief Ryan McMaken points out that America has had many authoritarian presidents. “Nixon and LBJ, in terms of new bombing campaigns, ignoring Congress … both of those presidents were significantly worse. FDR, through executive order, destroyed the gold standard.
“Just by the stroke of a pen, he impoverished many Americans, stole Americans’ gold. This was one of the worst economic crimes in American history. I don’t think (Trump) could get away with it.” Trump deserves an “A” grade for easing some regulation. TSA no longer requires people to take their shoes off. The EPA stopped mandating things like “stop/start” features that were supposed to save gas but barely did. Trump ended “disparate impact” analysis, the toxic legal theory that led to parasitic lawsuits if workforces did not exactly match U.S. racial proportions.
Ken Griffin, CEO of the investment firm Citadel, says that Trump’s merely criticizing regulation, telling bureaucrats back off, lifted the economy. It “gives you so much energy as an entrepreneur!” “That’s probably the best part of his administration right now.” says McMaken, giving Trump a “B-” on regulation. Not an “A” because his attempts to cut red tape have mostly failed. And Trump hasn’t cut spending. “Spending has only increased!” McMaken points out.

Can we a cheer a medal?

• Triggered and Traumatized by Scenes of Patriotism (Turley)

This week, most Americans found a moment of rare unity in our pride over the performance of our athletes in the Winter Olympics. After years of rage politics, there was a brief respite as we joined in cheering our team in representing the United States in Milan and Cortina. Well, most of us. Some in the media found the entire demonstration of patriotism to be intolerable and triggering. What is striking is how this aversion to our flag and country was so openly expressed in major media. Yesterday, the nightmare continued for some on the left who were traumatized by seeing the American flag and open displays of patriotism. Jack Hughes, one of the heroes of the gold medal hockey game, returned to New Jersey to play and was met with cheers of “USA, USA” and a sea of American flags.

Hughes immediately called his Olympic teammate Tage Thompson of the visiting Buffalo Sabres to the ice to join him. The two skated arm in arm as the crowd celebrated them and our country. It was another unifying moment for the country. The fans joined arm in arm to relish this moment for the nation. These scenes are clearly having a different impact on some on the left. The HuffPost even published an article with therapeutic advice for liberals triggered by seeing so many American flags. The liberal publication ran an article titled “There’s a Name for the Discomfort You’re Feeling Watching the Olympics Right Now.” It then published it a second time before the gold-medal hockey game with Canada — presumably to prepare its readers for the nightmare of the United States actually winning.
The subheading read, “If waving the American flag or chanting ‘USA!’ turns you off right now, you’re not alone.” Senior writer Monica Torres began the article with this line: “While President Donald Trump’s deportation agenda separates families, and federal agents detain 5-year-olds and kill unarmed civilians, American athletes are winning medals on behalf of the nation at the Olympics right now.” Torres goes on to interview three therapists for this “story” about how the celebration of the United States team has forced many liberals into therapy over their trauma and “the cognitive dissonance of rooting for U.S. sports.”
Los Angeles-based licensed clinical social worker Aimee Monterrosa explained that the “atrocities” of the United States can trigger feelings of guilt, despair, shame, anger” in seeing the country celebrate these sports victories. Expert Lauren Appio echoed how “waving the American flag or chanting, ‘USA!’ [can make] us feel grossed out or ashamed.” Over at Vox, Senior correspondent (and former Atlantic writer) Alex Abad-Santos wrote an article on the winners and losers of the Olympics. The column perfectly summed up the pathological opposition of some to this country’s symbols and celebrations.
Abad-Santos declared the men’s hockey team one of the biggest “losers” of the games. He blamed that team for alienating citizens by their patriotic statements: “The conversation surrounding the win quickly shifted into how the team celebrated and who it celebrated with.” He expressed outrage over the team accepting the celebratory call from the President of the United States.In the meantime, the “winner,” according to Abad-Santos, was . . . wait for it . . . Eileen Gu, the American who reportedly took millions from the repressive Chinese regime to ski for China. Gu used the games to criticize the United States while saying nothing of how China arrests anyone who speaks out against that country.

“.. when both were private citizens…”

“FBI Director Kash Patel has reportedly fired 10 FBI agents who were involved in the process of reviewing and intercepting communications as part of their work on the Jack Smith case. Internal FBI offices are not happy with Patel’s action against those officials ..”

• Biden FBI Investigated Susie Wiles and Kash Patel Phone Records (CTH)

According to media reports and statements from FBI Director Kash Patel, both Patel and Susie Wiles had their telephone records subpoenaed by the FBI in 2022 and 2023 when both were private citizens. This is during the time when Donald Trump was being investigated by Special Counsel Jack Smith. Within the reporting by Reuters, at least one phone call between Susie Wiles and her attorney was recorded by the FBI without her knowledge. As the story is outlined Wiles’ attorney was working with the FBI and knew the conversation was being captured, Wiles did not. FBI Director Kash Patel has reportedly fired 10 FBI agents who were involved in the process of reviewing and intercepting communications as part of their work on the Jack Smith case. Internal FBI offices are not happy with Patel’s action against those officials.

“(REUTERS) – The FBI subpoenaed records of phone calls made by Kash Patel and Susie Wiles, now the FBI director and White House Chief of Staff, when they were both private citizens in 2022 and 2023 during the federal probe of Donald Trump, Patel told Reuters on Wednesday. Reuters is the first to report on the FBI’s actions that took place during the Biden administration, largely when Special Counsel Jack Smith was investigating whether Trump had interfered with the 2020 election and had hidden classified documents at Mar-a-Lago, according to Patel. Smith was appointed to take over that probe in November 2022.
[…] “It is outrageous and deeply alarming that the previous FBI leadership secretly subpoenaed my own phone records – along with those of now White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles – using flimsy pretexts and burying the entire process in prohibited case files designed to evade all oversight,” Patel said in a statement to Reuters.
[…] At least 10 current FBI employees have been dismissed as a result of the revelations about the targeting of Patel, Wiles and others connected to the Mar-a-Lago classified documents case, according to three FBI officials. […] In 2023, the FBI recorded a phone call between Wiles and her attorney, according to two FBI officials. Wiles’ attorney was aware that the call was being recorded, and consented to it, but Susie Wiles was not. […] The FBI discovered the phone records in files categorized as “Prohibited,” which makes them difficult to discover on the bureau’s computer systems. Patel said he recently ended the FBI’s ability to categorize files as “Prohibited.” (read more)
https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/2026802738097459213?s=20
I have mixed emotions about this. On one hand it is infuriating to yet again see the audacity and clear weaponization of the DOJ and FBI under the prior administration. On the other hand, duh! Non-pretending people knew all along this malicious network of DOJ and FBI lawfare operations included surveillance of everyone around President Donald Trump. Remember, Donald Trump was accused of criminal wrongdoing by the twisted lawfare logic of Smith and his crew. Accepting the reality of a criminal investigation, fraudulent though it was, it was entirely predictable that the DOJ and FBI would leverage all available tools to conduct continued surveillance and monitoring.
The secondary frustrating aspect to this story is how Director Patel has only just now fired those 10 FBI agents involved. This is a big part of the criticism that many of us have with Patel and his soft glove approach upon taking the position as FBI Director. Any FBI official who was involved in the originating Crossfire Hurricane and/or Robert Mueller investigations should have been fired for cause on Day One! 40 FBI agents worked for more than two years on the Mueller probe investigating a fictitious claim about President Trump colluding with Russia in the 2016 election. Those FBI agents should have been identified and terminated immediately, with prejudice; thereby sending a loud message that weaponized FBI activity was the immediate focus of the new leadership and would not be tolerated.

“.. pointed to Vance as the one leading the efforts of his administration’s “war on fraud”..

• White House Withholds Medicaid Funding to Minnesota Amid Fraud Probe (Jung)

JD Vance and Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Administrator Dr. Mehmet Oz announced that the Trump administration is temporarily halting certain Medicaid funding to Minnesota amid an ongoing fraud investigation. This comes after President Donald Trump condemned the rampant fraud in Democrat-run Minnesota and pointed to Vance as the one leading the efforts of his administration’s “war on fraud” in his Feb. 24 State of the Union address. “When it comes to the corruption that is plundering — it really, it’s plundering America — there’s been no more stunning example than Minnesota, where members of the Somali community have pillaged an estimated $19 billion from the American taxpayer,” Trump said at the SOTU, adding, “Oh, we have all the information.”

“And, in actuality, the number is much higher than that, and California, Massachusetts, Maine and many other states are even worse. This is the kind of corruption that shreds the fabric of a nation, and we are working on it like you wouldn’t believe,” Trump continued. The pause affects $259 million in federal payments to the Gopher State, which will be withheld until the state government demonstrates corrective actions against widespread social and welfare fraud. The vice president has given Democrat Tim Walz of Minnesota 60 days to clean up the state’s Medicaid rolls after it was exposed that taxpayer dollars exceeding $9 billion were misallocated for illegal purposes, according to investigators.
“We have decided to temporarily halt certain amounts of Medicaid funding that are going to the state of Minnesota in order to ensure that the state of Minnesota takes its obligation seriously to be good stewards of the American people’s tax money,” Vance said. “A lot of people were getting rich off the generosity of the American taxpayer!” JD Vance said in regard to criminals fraudulently taking money from needy assistance programs like “Feeding Our Future” and other government-funded initiatives meant to help autistic children.
“There are kids that need these autism services, and the money is not going to those kids. They’re going to fraudsters in Minneapolis. That is unacceptable. And that’s the sort of thing that we’re cutting off with this action today,” he added. The U.S. Department of Justice and Republican Party members in Congress have been highlighting the massive scandal since December 2025, when years of unaccounted-for fraud, mostly perpetrated by members of Minnesota’s Somali immigrant community, came under the national spotlight. The fraud concerns center on 14 state programs, including those for autism services and medical transports, where funds allegedly went to fraudsters instead of beneficiaries.

“Greer notes Mexico and Canada being used as import hubs to avoid tariffs is a big issue.”

• USTR Greer Talks Baseline Tariff Reset Shifts and Reciprocity Tariffs (CTH)

The Supreme Court tariff ruling has created the need for U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to modify the baseline tariff approach with the approvals of President Trump. The baseline tariffs are being reset to 10% with upward adjustment to 15% as planned. The reciprocal tariffs will not require any substantive modifications as most of the Free Trade Agreements have been cemented with reciprocity tariffs as part of the negotiated deals. USTR Greer appears on Bloomberg to clarify the current situation and provide some information as to the transitional baseline tariffs as now modified. Additionally, and importantly, Greer begins discussing the USMCA review and his acceptance that President Trump is openly questioning the value for us. Greer notes Mexico and Canada being used as import hubs to avoid tariffs is a big issue. WATCH:

Section 232 [Steel and Aluminum examples] of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 (19 U.S.C. §1862, as amended) authorizes the President to impose trade restrictions—such as a tariff or quota—if the Secretary of Commerce determines, following an investigation, that imports of a good “threaten to impair” U.S. national security. {SOURCE}
Section 301 tariffs are a trade enforcement mechanism established under the Trade Act of 1974. They allow the U.S. government to impose tariffs on imports from countries that are found to be engaging in unfair trade practices. The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) conducts investigations to determine if a country is violating trade agreements, and if so, it can impose tariffs as a corrective measure {SOURCE}
Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 allows the U.S. president to impose tariffs of up to 15% to address “large and serious” balance-of-payments deficits. This authority can be exercised without prior congressional approval for a limited duration of 150 days. After this period, any tariffs must be extended by Congress. {SOURCE}
*FYI, there is a lot of distracting noise in the various social media platforms about internecine MAGA battles and ego-driven points of specific interest. CTH chooses to focus energy and attention on the substantive policy issues that will generate substantive policy outcomes for America.

“Vassily Nebenzia has said his parents were of Zaporozhian Cossack heritage and were more Ukrainian than the current leadership in Kiev..”

“To us, there is no difference – we are all one – millions of Ukrainians in Russia, millions of Russians in Ukraine..”

• I’m Ukrainian – Russia’s UN Ambassador (RT)

Russia’s permanent representative to the UN, Vassily Nebenzia, has said he is Ukrainian, citing his parents’ roots. Speaking at the UN Security Council meeting on Tuesday, the Russian diplomat stated that “formally speaking, I am Ukrainian.”n“I have such a strange last name – the Slavs know it’s hard to find even in Ukraine. It originates from The Zaporozhian Cossacks,” he clarified. The ethno-social group, known for its military exploits as early as the 16th century, played an important role in the history of what is today Ukraine.

“My father was a true Ukrainian, and my mother was of Cossack heritage, too,” Nebenzia said, claiming that they were more Ukrainian than Kiev’s current Deputy Foreign Minister Mariana Betsa and ambassador to the UN Andrey Melnik. The Russian envoy recounted how his father volunteered to join the Soviet army during World War II to fight the Nazis.mThe diplomat accused the current leadership in Kiev of “zombifying” the Ukrainian population into becoming modern-day Nazis. Russia’s ongoing military campaign is aimed at reversing these trends, according to Nebenzia, who added that it would continue for as long as necessary to achieve this goal. “To us, there is no difference – we are all one – millions of Ukrainians in Russia, millions of Russians in Ukraine, and in Belarus as well,” the diplomat concluded.
Moscow has repeatedly warned of a Nazi revival in Ukraine, describing “denazification” as one of the central goals of its military campaign against Kiev. Commemorations of World War II-era nationalist figures with ties to Nazi Germany have become increasingly common in Ukraine in recent years, particularly following the 2014 Maidan coup. Last April, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that Ukraine had “betrayed” its history by allowing the West to bring a Nazi regime to power in Kiev, which went on to declare “war against its own people.”

“.. we should be prepared for Western leverage attempts ranging from the ridiculous to the flagrantly irresponsible.”

• Arming Ukraine With Nukes: Western Elites Have ‘Lost Touch With Reality’ (RT)

Ukraine could become a partial nuclear power as its Western backers desperately seek to avoid NATO’s defeat in a proxy war against Russia – at least according to Moscow’s intelligence services. On Tuesday, Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) warned that elements in the British and French governments who have “lost touch with reality” are considering a gross breach of their commitments under the 1968 Non-Proliferation Treaty on nuclear weapons. Officials in London and Paris are allegedly weighing options to support Kiev as it refuses concessions to Russia and reportedly prepares for up to three more years of hostilities funded by Western Europe. According to the SVR, the options include arming Ukraine with a nuclear capability through the “covert transfer of relevant European-made components, equipment, and technologies” that Kiev could claim as domestically developed, or through the direct supply of a French submarine-launched ballistic missile warhead.

Another option, the SVR said, is pushing Kiev to build a ‘dirty bomb’ – a non-nuclear device designed to contaminate territory with radioactive material, long considered a nightmare scenario for terrorist attacks. Russian officials have for years identified a Ukrainian dirty bomb as a major threat, citing Kiev’s ready access to necessary components. Ukrainian officials often claim their nation once possessed the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal and gave it up for false security promises. Vladimir Zelensky suggested at the 2022 Munich Security Conference that the decision could be reversed. The conflict with Russia escalated soon after the provocative remarks. In reality, nuclear weapons were present on Ukrainian soil after the Soviet collapse but were never “Ukraine’s arsenal” – Kiev could not launch them.
The US pressured Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan to transfer the missiles to Russia, with three memorandums signed in Budapest in 1994. In 2012, Minsk said the US and UK breached their commitment “to refrain from economic coercion” of Belarus made in Budapest, after they imposed unilateral sanctions. The rebuke was brushed off by the West. Kiev is under increasing pressure as Russia maintains advantages in frontline attrition and long-range strikes. Zelensky’s rhetoric mixes declarations of resolve, gratitude for foreign support, and complaints that it is insufficient. Still, he insists Ukraine is not losing. Manpower shortages caused by mass desertion and public resistance to mobilization remain Ukraine’s biggest challenge. Zelensky’s solution: more money from the EU and UK.
“When it comes to people, Europeans can help us, if we switch our army – when we switch our army – from mobilization to contracts,” he told the BBC last week. Russia can recruit enough volunteers because it pays troops better, so Europeans should put Ukrainian soldiers on a payroll, he argued. Ukraine’s government is bankrolled by foreign donors and is facing bankruptcy by April unless the EU borrows €90 billion ($105 billion) to continue aid. The EU’s loan plan, however, has been stalled due to Kiev’s ongoing spat with Hungary and Slovakia over their purchase of Russian crude.
Desperation can drive invention, and going nuclear is achievable even for a small, relatively poor nation – as North Korea proves. Soviet Ukraine was a technological powerhouse with its own nuclear reactors and a world-class rocket industry, suggesting an advantage. But generational loss of expertise, wartime damage, and other factors lead Ukrainian officials to privately admit that claims of going nuclear are bluster. Even conventional military technology development has faltered. The Flamingo cruise missile, resembling a UK-UAE weapon, was supposed to be the backbone of Ukraine’s deep-strike capability, with hundreds produced monthly. In reality, launches are so few they are celebrated as major achievements.
Zelensky’s explanation at this year’s Munich Security Conference: Russians destroyed production lines. Alternative speculation: domestic producer Fire Point is suspicious. The firm is allegedly linked to Zelensky’s longtime associate Timur Mindich, who fled Ukraine last November hours before being charged with running a major graft scheme. So is the nuclear warning real? France and the UK smuggling a nuke to Ukraine sounds like a B-movie plot. So does a US president threatening to invade Greenland to protect it from Russia and China. These are strange times. Given the EU has publicly demanded that Russia cap its army or face Brussels’ rejection of a Ukraine peace deal, we should be prepared for Western leverage attempts ranging from the ridiculous to the flagrantly irresponsible.

Bibi. Whether it’s Ukraine or the Middle East, Trump so far refuses to involve his military directly. Here’s thinking that’s a good thing.

• US Demands Iran Dismantle Its 3 Main Nuclear Sites In Hours-Long Talks (ZH)

US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner held more than three hours of negotiations with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Geneva on Thursday in a push to secure a breakthrough on a nuclear deal, with the Omani foreign minister saying the talks will resume later after a pause. It’s being reported that the message Kushner and Witkoff deliver to Trump after the meeting will shape the president’s decision on whether the launch a military attack on Tehran or refrain for implementation of a permanent deal. While Trump declared in Tuesday’s State of the Union that he prefers diplomacy, he also presented a direct case for war – something which remains deeply unpopular among the American people. In these and other indirect talks, Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi relayed messages between the sides, and then another format has involved direct discussions between US and Iranian negotiators.

Iran presented its long-awaited draft proposal for a nuclear agreement, though not much in the way of details have been revealed. International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Raphael Grossi was among those who participated in the negotiations. Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi, the main mediator, said of the Thursday talks that “we’ve been exchanging creative and positive ideas” and “hope to make more progress.” Meanwhile, a former head of the IAEA has warned that all wars, “including ‘wars of choice’ have horrific costs” as fears of major conflict between the US and Iran escalate. Reports that Thursday talks stalled after US side demanded zero enrichment…
https://twitter.com/AhmadSamadi1974/status/2027025765007577268
“The US is intensifying the drumbeat of war against Iran, with zero explanation of the non-existent legal authority to use force and zero evidence of an ‘imminent threat’ other than hypothetical scenarios based on possible future intentions,” Mohamed ElBaradei wrote on X. “That is the reason for the restraints and limitations established by international norms… This is Iraq redux … it seems we never learn,” he emphasized. Fresh reporting in The Wall Street Journal has laid out the main US sticking points: In the talks, now under way in Geneva, the U.S. negotiators were expected to make clear Iran must dismantle its three main nuclear sites—at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan—and deliver all of its remaining enriched uranium to the U.S., officials said.
They were also expected to insist that any nuclear deal must last forever and not sunset—the way restrictions rolled off over time under a nuclear pact negotiated under the Obama administration that Republicans have long said was too weak. Trump pulled out of that deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, in his first term, reimposing tough sanctions on Iran.

Here the demands US brought to Iran in Geneva:

1) Destroy all 3 nuclear sites: Fordow, Natanz, Isfahan

2) Deliver all enriched uranium to US

3) No sunset clauses

4) Zero enrichment, but can keep Tehran reactor

5) Minimal sanctions relief up front; more if Iran compliant
— Alex Ward (@alexbward) February 26, 2026

These are the very nuclear sites that the US said time and again it “obliterated” during the June war. This comes off Vice President J.D. Vance just the day prior stating that the White House “has seen evidence” that Iran is attempting to build a nuclear weapon. So Washington is going from proclaiming Iran’s nuclear sites were obliterated to now saying there’s evidence of the Iranians trying to clandestinely build a nuclear warhead. Of course, no evidence or so much as a reference to some kind of intelligence report has been presented to the world.

⚠️ ‘We've seen evidence’ Iran is trying to rebuild nuclear weapons says @VP JD Vance.

We've heard this exact line before…

Colin Powell at the UN, February 5 2003:
'We've seen evidence' of Iraq's mobile bioweapons labs & WMDs.

We all remember what happened next. Turned… pic.twitter.com/O7KiyAsiwx
— Hala Jaber (@HalaJaber) February 25, 2026

There are indeed mounting concerns that history is about to repeat itself, but this time there’s possibly many more American troops in harm’s way, given the significant reach and capabilities of Iran’s ballistic missiles and long-range drones.

“We are aware of the theories circulated in the media and online that Epstein video recorded the abuse of his victims, including by other men, but we have found no evidence to support that theory,”

• Epstein Rushed Evidence Into Secret Storage Unit Before Raid (ZH)

Jeffrey Epstein paid private detectives to remove items from his Palm Beach property and store them in a secret storage locker shortly before he was raided by police in 2005. The storage unit contained three computers, 29 address books, a three-page list of Florida masseuses. The stash also included nude photographs believed to be of Epstein’s victims, VHS tapes, DVDs ‘eroticising teenagers’ and porno mags, The Telegraph reports. “An 8mm video cassette tape was also locked away in the storage unit, apparently containing footage of someone in the shower and a woman in lingerie, as well as a 2005 calendar, greeting cards, letters and laboratory results.”

The investigators also hid sex toys, body massagers, lingerie, cash, a concealed weapon permit, and a Harvard ID card. The inventory was emailed to Epstein and his lawyers in August 2009, a month after he was released from jail for soliciting a minor for prostitution. Also interesting, some of the computer material ‘appeared to be missing,’ including ‘equipment that would have linked to surveillance cameras. ‘That fuelled speculation that Epstein might have been recording explicit covert material without people’s knowledge, either for his own sexual gratification or for blackmail purposes.” And what do we have here? A guy who was installing recording equipment on Epstein’s island in 2014, and was named as a $1 million beneficiary in Epstein’s trust.

Ruan worked for Epstein on the island property known as “LSJ” and was the primary technology person handling cameras and networking. He later transitioned the island to Ubiquiti equipment starting in late 2017.

Ruan was also named as a $1 million beneficiary in Epstein’s trust…
— IredcapI (@IredcapI) February 26, 2026

According to the report, the FBI did have copies of the two computer drives. The Palm Beach storage unit was just one of at least six such lockers across the United States that Epstein used to store files, computers and other items from his multiple properties – but search warrants reviewed by The Telegraph “suggest that US authorities never raided these lockers, raising the possibility that they contained unseen evidence relating to Epstein and his associates.” US authorities have long suspected that Epstein was tipped off before the October 2005 raid at his Palm Beach mansion, with former Palm Beach police chief Michael Reiter commenting that “the place had been cleaned up.”
Meanwhile, French Police have released previously unseen pictures from Epstein’s Paris apartment, including one featuring a massage table and pictures of naked women hanging on the wall. Many victims have long alleged that Epstein secretly recorded encounters inside his homes, possibly for blackmail. Yet an internal FBI memo released in a later document tranche stated that investigators found no evidence supporting the theory that Epstein maintained video recordings of abuse involving other powerful figures. “We are aware of the theories circulated in the media and online that Epstein video recorded the abuse of his victims, including by other men, but we have found no evidence to support that theory,” the memo said. The agency added that if such material had existed, it would have been used in criminal prosecutions. Copies of two hard drives from the Palm Beach locker were eventually recovered at Epstein’s New York residence following his 2019 arrest, but the original computers are believed to have never been found. An FBI forensic analyst later testified that the drives contained photos of Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell and a job advertisement written by “GMax” seeking a massage therapist – but no explicit recordings of abuse.

I hear Hillary is making the deposition political “on her socials..”

• Hillary Clinton to Testify in Epstein Probe on Thursday, Bill Clinton on Friday (JTN)

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is scheduled Thursday to give her highly anticipated deposition in the House Oversight Committee’s probe into Jeffrey Epstein, followed by former President Bill Clinton on Friday. The depositions, which will take place in New York, come after a contentious negotiation between the Clintons’ attorneys and House Republicans, led by Oversight Committee Chair James Comer who pushed for in-person, recorded depositions rather than written testimony or declarations. The Clintons have not been accused of any wrongdoing and the depositions will be given behind closed doors in the couple’s hometown of Chappaqua.

“Hillary Clinton: ‘I do not recall ever encountering Mr. Epstein.’”

Meanwhile, Epstein once said Hillary Clinton was “much prettier in person.”

No recollection, though. pic.twitter.com/xY3XnPCbpp
— Gina Milan (@ginamilan_) February 26, 2026
The depositions are unusual in two ways. The first is that Bill Clinton will be the first former president compelled to testify under subpoena in such an inquiry, and the second is that lawmakers from both parties appear ready to grill the couple.“The major thing is that we’re looking for truth, for the survivors, and justice and accountability, and that’s something that cuts across party lines,” Maryland Democratic Rep. Jamie Raskin told The Hill. “At least on the Democratic side, we have said that anybody who was involved in criminal activity should pay the price for it.” Comer said Tuesday that he will release the video and transcript of the depositions as soon as the couple approves it.

“Attack a cop, go to jail” is not a radical slogan. It is the bare minimum required to maintain a functioning city.”

• Mamdani’s NYC Flirts With Chaos (Ben Shapiro)

A brutal cold snap has gripped New York City and much of the East Coast, freezing streets, sidewalks — and, it seems, any remaining sense of civic restraint.In Washington Square Park, a group of adults began hurling snowballs and other objects at responding officers from the New York City Police Department. This was not playful roughhousing in a winter storm. Video shows grown men and women — some masked, some standing brazenly in the open, all apparently confident that consequences would be minimal — pelting officers as they arrived on scene. That confidence is the problem.

Assaulting police officers is not a prank. It is not political theater. It is a crime. Every individual captured on video throwing objects at officers should be identified, arrested and charged accordingly. “Attack a cop, go to jail” is not a radical slogan. It is the bare minimum required to maintain a functioning city. New York City Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch responded swiftly, calling the conduct “disgraceful” and “criminal” and confirming that detectives are investigating. The city’s largest police union, the Patrolmen’s Benevolent Association, issued a sharper warning: Officers were treated for injuries, but the matter cannot end there. Those responsible must be identified and charged, and city leaders must condemn the attack unequivocally. That last point is key.
Public attitudes toward law enforcement do not form in a vacuum. They are shaped, in no small part, by the rhetoric of elected officials. When political figures spend years portraying police as inherently suspect or malign, it should surprise no one when segments of the public begin treating officers as legitimate targets. Consider New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani. Long before taking office, he built a reputation as a sharp critic of policing practices. Words matter. Tone matters. The cumulative effect of constant denunciation is cultural erosion — an environment in which hostility toward police feels permissible, even fashionable.
We have seen versions of this before. After the unrest in Ferguson, Missouri, in 2014, national rhetoric around policing shifted dramatically. The 2020 wave of anti-police protests accelerated that shift. In many major cities, calls to “reimagine” or defund police departments moved from activist slogans into policy debates — and, in some cases, into actual governance. The result in too many places has been confusion about first principles. Law is only as effective as its enforcement. Order is not automatic; it is maintained. When elected leaders send mixed signals about whether officers deserve institutional backing, the public receives the message. And disorder follows.
The current cold emergency adds another layer to the debate. As temperatures plunged, the administration touted the deployment of more than 500 outreach workers across the five boroughs to connect homeless residents with services. The mayor suggested that several recent deaths appear to be related to overdoses rather than the direct result of exposure. But the distinction raises its own question: Why are so many people still sleeping on the streets at all? In extreme weather, cities have both the authority and, many would argue, the obligation to compel vulnerable individuals into shelter. Allowing people to remain outdoors — whether they ultimately succumb to cold or drugs — reflects policy choices.

Just one hacker, actually…

• So Hackers Just Stole Mexico’s Tax and Voter Rolls (Stephen Green)

This story doesn’t quite feature the gut-punch immediacy of Mexico’s drug war escalating into a virtual civil war last week in and around Puerto Vallarta, but as a glimpse into the future, maybe it ought to send a chill or three down your spine. According to a new Bloomberg story (paywalled, sorry), a weeks-long hacker campaign against the Mexican government culminated in January with a massive data theft of some of the federal government’s most sensitive information. “By the time it was over,” Let’s Data Science reported on Wednesday, “the attacker had stolen 150 gigabytes of sensitive data — including 195 million taxpayer records, voter registration files, government employee credentials, and civil registry data.”

If you’re thinking such a massive theft involved a team of hackers, years of planning involving a Stuxnet-like virus, or even physical access to Mexican government computer systems — think again. The almost unprecedented hack was done by just one guy. Using Anthropic’s Claude AI, despite all of Anthropic’s safeguards against something exactly like this.Summing up a report published Wednesday by Israeli cybersecurity startup Gambit Security, Bloomberg wrote that some “unknown Claude user” simply made up “Spanish-language prompts for the chatbot to act as an elite hacker, finding vulnerabilities in government networks, writing computer scripts to exploit them and determining ways to automate data theft.”
It seems like just two days ago [It was just two days ago, Steve —Editor] I wrote about Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei getting called onto the carpet by Secretary of War Pete Hegseth because the company refused to let the Pentagon remove Claude’s guardrails for military use. “Anthropic knows this is not a get-to-know-you meeting,” an anonymous War Department official told Axios on Monday. “This is not a friendly meeting,” they said. “This is a s**t-or-get-off-the-pot meeting.” So how did some internet rando get Claude to ignore similar built-in safeties against hacking? He asked: https://twitter.com/ns123abc/status/2026679645379141953
“It looks like the hacker was able to essentially jailbreak Claude with prompts, finally bypassing the chatbot’s guardrails. Claude originally refused the nefarious demands until eventually relenting,” Engadget reported on Wednesday. Nobody had to hack Claude to turn the AI into a malicious hacker. They just had to get the phrasing right until Claude did the job itself. Gambit claimed that “In total, [Claude] produced thousands of detailed reports that included ready-to-execute plans, telling the human operator exactly which internal targets to attack next and what credentials to use.”
Going back to that Bloomberg story, an Anthropic spokesperson told the outlet that “the company feeds examples of malicious activity back into Claude to learn from it, and one of its latest AI models, Claude Opus 4.6, includes probes that can disrupt misuse.” But Anthropic made similar claims about the current version, too.

Legalizing 500,000 aliens in one fell swoop is more then Spain can handle.

• Spain’s Government: Spinning Out of Control (Drieu Godefridi)

Between corruption and radicalization, Spain’s government seems to be spinning out of control.
In 1936, Spain plunged into civil war. A proud nation collapsed into violence, fire, and devastation. The Spanish Civil War, which set a communist-dominated Republican left against an authoritarian nationalist right, claimed roughly half a million lives. Priests were dragged through the streets, beaten, and mutilated — ears, noses, even genitals cut off — before being shot or having their throats slit. Nuns were raped prior to execution, in cases documented across several regions. Churches were set ablaze with priests still inside. In many towns, militiamen forced clergy to drink motor oil or gasoline before burning them alive. Spain’s right wing, not to be outdone, killed just as many.
Almost a century later, when one might have hoped that these wounds had finally healed, political and cultural fault lines are reopening. Polarization has reached levels rarely seen since Spain’s transition to democracy.
1. The original trauma of the Spanish left
The Spanish Civil War, in Spain’s collective memory, remains an open wound. For a significant portion of the Spanish “left” — standing for workers’ rights, a shorter work week, women’s and transgender rights, reducing carbon emissions — the dominant narrative remains that of a revolution betrayed, confiscated by fascism, and still pending, never repaired. This historical resentment has been transmitted from generation to generation like an act of faith. Today, under the government of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and his coalition, which governs with the support of the extreme-left, this resentment is resurfacing in the form of historical revisionism.
By constantly summoning the specters of the past — going so far as to exhume Francisco Franco’s remains, in a direct evocation of civil-war-era practices, when communists gleefully desecrated the graves of their so-called “class enemies” — is the left not in danger of reviving the hatreds and violence of the past?
2. A left without a compass: ideological orphanhood
Spain’s left is becoming more radical precisely because it has run out of ideas. Marxism, long the doctrinal backbone of the global left, lost all credibility with the implosion of the USSR, amid the stench of cabbage and corpses. Spain is no exception. Stripped of this ideological foundation, the Spanish left now finds itself without a compass.Before the July 2023 elections, Sánchez promised a bold progressive agenda: mass public housing construction, reducing the working week to 37.5 hours, large minimum wage hikes, slashing healthcare waiting lists with binding maximum times, free public transport for youth, and expanded public education. Critically, delivery on these massive flagship promises has been dismal to date: virtually no new public housing built, prices soaring, the work-week reduction defeated in parliament, real wages eroded by inflation, and chronic healthcare waiting lists unchanged.
Sánchez’s Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE), once anchored in moderate, reformist social democracy, has gradually shifted toward a strategy of sheer political survival. To remain in power, it allied itself first with Podemos and then with Sumar—two extreme left-wing parties obsessed with supporting Palestinians, against NATO, and soft on Russia — as well as with separatist movements. In doing so, the PSOE diluted its original moderate reformist vision through blatant opportunism, sacrificing doctrinal coherence in favor of questionable alliances.
3. A patchwork of incoherent dogmas
Deprived of Marxism, the Spanish left has sought refuge in a disparate ideological mosaic: radical environmentalism, complicit indulgence toward political Islam, the dismantling of borders, unconditional support for the Palestinians against Israel – all stacked together into an improbable and incoherent magma. Added to this are recurring undertones of anti-Semitism in left-wing discourse — one thinks in particular of Yolanda Díaz, seemingly a figure of clinical hysteria, whose face visibly contorts the moment she pronounces the word “Israeli.” By radicalizing itself across every issue, the left fuels the anger of the right, the middle classes, and a growing segment of the population that feels marginalized, despised, and alienated within its own country.
4. A regime corrupt to the core?
The Sánchez government has another reason for aligning with jihadists: the corruption scandals that have engulfed even the prime minister’s immediate family. First comes the Koldo-Ábalos scandal involving irregular public contracts, illegal commissions, and bribes linked to public-works contracts, totaling several hundred million euros. Several figures are particularly implicated. Former Minister of Transport José Luis Ábalos, a close ally of Sánchez, is in pre-trial detention for criminal organization, corruption, embezzlement, and influence peddling.

Koldo García, Ábalos’s former adviser, is a central figure in the scheme. He too is in pre-trial detention and under prosecution. Santos Cerdán, former secretary of organization of the PSOE and Ábalos’s successor, is under investigation and was detained for corruption in public-works contracts. The Civil Guard is examining 22 contracts, worth €355 million, that were allegedly manipulated by favoritism. Added to this are the cases involving Sánchez’s own family. Begoña Gómez, his wife, was formally charged with influence peddling, corruption in business, embezzlement of public funds, misappropriation, and illegally practicing a regulated profession, in a case that was opened in April 2024. In August 2025, the probe was extended to include her advisor Cristina Álvarez.

The investigation into Gómez has been extended until at least April 2026 and continues with active measures, including February 2026 requests to the Interior Ministry for travel records of Gómez and Álvarez since 2018 (covering destinations such as the Dominican Republic, Congo, Guinea, and Russia), access to emails, and Civil Guard reports.David Sánchez, the prime minister’s brother, is also being prosecuted, for influence peddling and malfeasance in connection with his employment at the Badajoz Provincial Council. “The prime minister faces multiple legal challenges this year that could lead to the downfall of his family, his party, and his government,” summarizes Spanish daily El Mundo.[..]

For now, it seems AI is whatever you want it to be …

• Even the Best AI Scenario Is the End of Everything We’ve Ever Been (Ring)

In 1999, I had the privilege of working for one of the first companies to develop a product that would transmit video on the fledgling internet. Broadband access was still a few years away, and the company floundered when the first so-called internet bubble burst in early 2000. But I’ll never forget the reaction an investor had when he viewed our demo at a tradeshow. “This is a revolution,” he exclaimed. “This is going to change everything.” He was right, of course. I remember attending a tech investor conference only a few years earlier and having a chuckle while listening to Oracle CEO Larry Ellison somberly proclaim that the dawning internet was the most profound scientific development in human history “since the invention of fire.”

And Ellison was also correct. But the invention of AI is to the internet what the internet was to bringing fire into the prehistoric cave. What’s coming with AI makes the internet look like a baby step by comparison. Nothing will ever be the same. A must-read essay by AI entrepreneur and founder of the company “OthersideAI,” Matt Shumer, makes clear just how much and how quickly AI is changing our lives. Posted on his personal website on February 9 and then on X on February 10, the essay has gone viral. Within just two days, it generated 76 million views on X.One of Shumer’s most memorable paragraphs from this essay, which he says AI tools helped him write, is where he quotes Dario Amodei, the CEO of Anthropic:
“Imagine it’s 2027. A new country appears overnight. 50 million citizens, every one smarter than any Nobel Prize winner who has ever lived. They think 10 to 100 times faster than any human. They never sleep. They can use the internet, control robots, direct experiments, and operate anything with a digital interface.” That’s not far off. With ample evidence, Shumer explains how not only is Amodei correct in his details regarding just how pervasive and powerful AI entities will become, but also regarding the timeline. This will happen within one year. Shumer’s essay covers a lot of ground. He explains that AI programs are now capable of generating improved versions of themselves with minimal human intervention and that they are within months of being able to produce more powerful versions with no human involvement whatsoever.
In the programming world, AI can now build, test, and refine apps independently. Entry-level programming jobs are going to go away. That’s hardly the end of it. Shumer reminds readers that the free versions of AI are a year behind the premium versions that require subscriptions and that these premium versions are so capable that they can already, for example, not merely replace a law associate but do the work of the managing partners. He claims there is no intellectual field where AI isn’t poised to outperform humans and that robots to displace physical work are only a few years behind. If you’ve been following developments in AI, Shumer’s essay isn’t incredibly surprising.
But something else grabbed me a few days ago that highlighted the human implications of the AI revolution. One of the categories of content I enjoy on YouTube is videos of musicians performing new or classic songs. It is exhilarating to find something new that reveals great songwriting and great performative talent. So a recommended video caught my eye. The title was inviting: “Simon Cowell in Tears As Michael Bennett Sings ‘After I Pass Away.’” This seemed worth clicking on. I’ll never forget the 2007 video, featured on YouTube at the time, of a humble mobile phone salesman, Paul Potts, who stunned the judges and audience on Britain’s Got Talent by singing a powerful and nearly perfect rendition of Nessun Dorma. He went on to win the competition. So if this new talent was good enough to make Simon Cowell cry, I wanted to hear him.

Elon Musk: We might just be the biological bootloader for digital superintelligence.

“They call it the singularity for a reason, because we don't know what's going to happen. In the not-too-distant future, the percentage of intelligence that is human will be quite small. At some… pic.twitter.com/xzM8xPt2nD
— ELON CLIPS (@ElonClipsX) February 26, 2026

The most terrifying AI features aren’t the ones we build.

They’re the ones AI builds for itself.

OpenClaw creator Peter Steinberger just shared the moment he realized something had fundamentally changed.

He sent his AI assistant a voice message.

One problem. He had never… pic.twitter.com/xR0tKrsLDc
— Dustin (@r0ck3t23) February 26, 2026

⚠️ BREAKING GRAVITY: Col. Douglas Macgregor warns — Iran WILL NOT SURRENDER!
This is not just another conflict. "For Iran, this is an existential war."

"They will not submit." Col. Douglas Macgregor ( @DougAMacgregor) says, "They [Iran] will not recognize Israeli”… pic.twitter.com/2Rx7jnIyEj
— Daniel Davis Deep Dive (@DanielLDavis1) February 25, 2026

This is Israel’s last chance to blow up Iran with America’s military, so naturally the neocons have reached peak hysteria. Clayton Morris on what happens if they get their wish. pic.twitter.com/bOtvzixvmv
— Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson) February 26, 2026

https://twitter.com/argosaki/status/2026873941386801458?s=20

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Debt Rattle February 5 2026

Feb 052026

February 5, 2026 Posted by Raúl Ilargi Meijer at 11:15 am Finance Tagged with: EU, FBI, Homan, ICE, Minnesota, Rutte, sanctions, Spain 53 Responses »

Paul Cézanne Countryside in Auvers-sur-Oise 1881-82

• Putin Notifies Xi Of New START Status (ZH)

• The Two Levels of EU-Sanctions Illegality (Luis Roberto Zamora Bolaños)

• Rutte Says Post-Ukraine Peace To Include NATO Boots By Air, Land & Sea (ZH)

• Breaking News From Miami, Teheran (Helmer)

• A Bigger Backstory, Vindicating DNI Tulsi Gabbard (CTH)

• Rep. Jerry Nadler Triggers Outcry Over Violent Rhetoric Against ICE (Turley)

• Spain Announces Major Social Media Crackdown (RT)

• ‘I Wasn’t Friendly With Epstein’ – Trump (RT)

• Tom Homan Pulls 700 Agents Out of Minnesota (Matt Margolis)

• Minnesota Counties Begin Cooperating With ICE (ZH)

• FBI Director Kash Patel Outlines Fulton County Objective (CTH)

The X Holding Company – The Anti-Alphabet

Elon appears to be marshalling his resources to compete with Google head-to-head:

1) AI on earth – xAI vs Deepmind
2) AI in space (Alphabet doesn't have a rocket company, but they will benefit from SpaceX lowering launch costs)
3)… pic.twitter.com/mFhTGdGIWE
— Cern Basher (@CernBasher) February 3, 2026

“Elon Musk is the greatest free speech warrior we have in the modern day world. Because of him, we can have these discussions on at least one of our social media platforms, and we couldn't before. And I really think that his takeover of Twitter has helped change the polling on… pic.twitter.com/I2poAvmpAS
— Tesla Owners Silicon Valley (@teslaownersSV) February 3, 2026

“Tesla was working on free energy.”

“The FBI seized all his research, 60-80 boxes.”

“They sent it to John Trump.”

“And 20 boxes are still missing.”

AJ from The Why Files just blew Tucker Carlson’s mind with the truth about Nikola Tesla, Donald Trump’s grandfather, and… pic.twitter.com/1O9azLsXIn
— Holden Culotta (@Holden_Culotta) February 4, 2026

New START expires today. It’s the last remaining treaty. Trump wants China to sign any new deal.

• Putin Notifies Xi Of New START Status (ZH)

President Putin in his Wednesday video call with Chinese President Xi Jinping underscored that the last major nuclear treaty with the United States is on the eve of collapse. New START is set to expire on Thursday. Putin notified Xi that Washington has not yet responded. “As you know, on September 22, 2025, we proposed to the Americans to extend the key quantitative limits for one year as voluntary self-restrictions. However, we have not yet received an official response from the Americans,” Putin said, as quoted in state media.

Despite the situation with the New START Treaty, Russia remains open “to seeking negotiated ways to ensure strategic stability” – the Russian leader explained. Putin further stated his country will act “in a measured and responsible manner, based on a thorough analysis of the overall security situation.” Over several years going back to his first term, Trump has signaled a desire to forge a broader deal which would bring China into the agreement, which hearkens back to the Obama administration. Politico is meanwhile reporting that the Trump administration is preparing to “let go of arms control with Russia”:
The likely dissolution of the agreement comes at an especially fraught time. Russia and China are expanding their strategic arsenals and the Kremlin has threatened to use nuclear weapons on Ukraine. The Defense Department has held a series of internal meetings in preparation for a post-New START world, according to the two people and another person familiar — all of whom were granted anonymity to discuss internal talks — although it’s not clear what was discussed in the meetings. “We’re looking at a very uncertain path ahead,” said Daryl Kimball, the executive director of the Arms Control Association. “Unless Trump and Putin reach some sort of understanding soon, it’s not unlikely that Russia and the U.S. will start to upload more warheads on their missiles.”
The Kremlin has made clear Russia is willing to extend it for another year, to allow more robust negotiations and for a longer deal to be finalized. But again, unless it is renewed or extended at the last minute, the landmark treaty will expire on Thursday, February 5. Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev, now deputy chairman of the country’s Security Council, on Monday made clear that Russia’s offer to quickly extend “remains on the table, and the treaty has not even expired yet, and if the American side wants to extend it, then this can be done.” He also confirmed that Moscow has received no response on this offer from Washington:
Medvedev told the newspaper Kommersant that Moscow might have to wait until the expiry of the treaty on February 5 for a U.S. response to the Russian initiative. When contacted for comment, a White House official told Newsweek Monday: “The president will decide the path forward on nuclear arms control, which he will clarify on his own timeline.” Indeed, the Trump White House has yet to issue anything official. Of course, President Trump is also known for making key decisions at the last moment, building suspense and leverage, based on also on his notorious unpredictable decision-making style.

The New START treaty, which has contained the risk of a nuclear standoff between America and Russia, expires soon. To make matters more dangerous, there is a new player in the game—China: https://t.co/w2LZ59AbYu pic.twitter.com/xNySz54I0V
— The Economist (@TheEconomist) February 4, 2026

According to Monica Duffy Toft, professor of international politics and director of the Center for Strategic Studies at The Fletcher School, “By providing transparency into the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals, New START has lowered the risk that either side will misinterpret normal military activity as preparation for a nuclear strike.” It was signed in 2010 by Presidents Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev, and limits the number of deployed strategic warheads to 1,550 per side, and caps deployed delivery systems – including of missiles, bombers, and submarines – at 700. There’s also a mutual inspection regimen, allowing each side to monitor the other’s sites.

International Law is a bummer!

• The Two Levels of EU-Sanctions Illegality (Luis Roberto Zamora Bolaños)

Pascal’s Note: A previous guest on my YouTube Channel, Luis Roberto Zamora Bolaños—the international lawyer who, back in the 2000s, forced his native Costa Rica to withdraw from George W. Bush’s Coalition of the Willing—sent me a short assessment of the legality of EU sanctions. He argues that the Eurocrats are, in fact, grossly overstepping their competencies under international law. Not only are the sanctions in breach of the law between nations, but they are also a heavy infringement on the Human Rights of the targeted people. Here is his verdict.

Unilateral Sanctions against States are Illegal.
Can states do whatever they want within their own borders and jurisdictions? On the one hand, under the Lotus Principle, states (and more generally, subjects of international law) are indeed allowed to act freely as long as they don’t contravene other rules of international law, customary rules, or peremptory norms. Nonetheless, the freedom of action of a subject of international law (IL) is limited by the rights of other States, most notably the principle of sovereignty.
While unilateral acts like sanctions are not explicitly codified in IL, that doesn’t mean they are unrecognized or exempt from scrutiny. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) has dealt with them in several cases, most notably the Nuclear Tests case (also in the UK-NOR Fisheries Case). Moreover, in 2006, the United Nations International Law Commission (ILC) issued its “Guiding Principles applicable to unilateral declarations of States capable of creating legal obligations,” which should be fully applicable to other subjects of international law. Principle 9 establishes that: No obligation may result for other States from the unilateral declaration of a State. However, the other State or States concerned may incur obligations in relation to such a unilateral declaration to the extent that they clearly accepted such a declaration.
In its commentaries about this principle, the ILC indicated that: “It is well established in international law that obligations cannot be imposed by a State upon another State without its consent.” The same idea applies to sanctions, which is precisely the reason State consent in the form of jurisdiction acceptance is needed to be subject to a ruling by the ICJ. The UN Charter is less clear about the limits of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to impose sanctions. However, it has been widely accepted that the Council has that capacity. The European Union, on the other hand, as a normal subject of international law, shouldn’t have the capacity to create obligations on other subjects of international law.
The issue is further complicated if the sanctions are imposed following a proposal from a member State. Unless the proposing State abstains from voting, the principle of impartiality would be grossly violated. Additionally, it can be said that the EU, by imposing sanctions against non-member States, would be confiscating functions reserved for international adjudicatory bodies, such as the ICJ or the Permanent Court of Arbitration. It would be highly contradictory, even immoral, if the EU justified its action by pointing to the lack of jurisdiction acceptance by the sanctioned non-member States, since several EU members have not accepted compulsory universal jurisdiction before the ICJ.
Unilateral Sanctions against Individuals are Contrary to International Law
A second level is the human rights question of the people targeted by sanctions. Article 6 of the European Convention for the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms establishes that: 1. In the determination of his civil rights and obligations or of any criminal charge against him, everyone is entitled to a fair and public hearing within a reasonable time by an independent and impartial tribunal established by law.
Although it has been recognized that administrative bodies can impose certain types of sanctions, the right to be heard and to exercise a defense is absolute. No one can be subject to a sanction without an opportunity to exercise a defense or challenge the sanction—before the measures take effect—which doesn’t happen with EU Council sanctions. Moreover, Article 7 of the European Convention established the principle of nulla pena sine lege previa, meaning that the conduct and its sanction must be clearly established in a law before its imposition. The EU doesn’t have a “criminal code” or anything like that.
Furthermore, EU States (or any State) can create a subject of international law to avoid obligations that they would otherwise bear. This would be fraud on law. To illustrate with a case, EU member states cannot authorize the EU Council to impose the death penalty, even when the EU itself is not a party to the EU Human Rights regime. Substantively, depending on the content of the sanctions, they could violate the freedoms of thought and conscience, the right to private property, privacy, movement, and family. It could further be claimed that the conditions imposed by certain sanctions are equivalent to torture.
There is a fundamental distinction to highlight here: between rights and freedoms. Unlike rights, which require positive action by the States for their fulfillment, freedoms demand negative action. States should refrain from intervening in the enjoyment of freedoms unless a lawfully established excess has been committed. Thought and expression are freedoms, not rights, meaning that States (and the EU) should minimize their intervention and limitation, especially sine lege previa.
I think that the issue can be tackled from several fronts. Internationally, in addition to EU internal mechanisms, complaints should be submitted to the High Commissioner on Freedom of Expression and the Committee against Torture. I think this could be a particularly interesting scenario.

Never ever. Promises he knows he can’t keep. Makes you wonder why he says it regardless.

• Rutte Says Post-Ukraine Peace To Include NATO Boots By Air, Land & Sea (ZH)

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said the so-called “coalition of the willing” will deploy forces across Ukraine – on land, at sea, and in the air – once a peace agreement with Russia is signed, making clear that Western boots, jets, and naval assets would follow any ceasefire. Rutte said Ukraine needs binding commitments and security guarantees in order to prevent future Russian aggression. This is to include the deployment of European forces and a “crucial” US “backstop”. His words are consistent with the Western position – and specifically the European view – on what a final Ukraine peace deal would require
.
The Kremlin has as expected consistently rejected this ‘option’ as a non-starter, given this is why Russia went to war in the first place: to stop a NATO troop outpost right on its border, and constant NATO expansion. What Moscow will find doubly alarming is that Rutte issued the words directly before Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada (the unicameral parliament of Ukraine). Other NATO states, Rutte laid out, would continue to assist through additional channels in a support role to Western boots on the ground.
But Russia has again warned that foreign boots on the ground in Ukraine would warrant a military response, and that they could be targets for future Russian action. All of this contradicts Russia’s ‘red lines’ for what it says is acceptable. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has been even more blunt, stating that security guarantees for Ukraine based on “foreign military intervention on some part of Ukrainian territory” would be unacceptable to the level that a post-war “peacekeeping” mission would fast spiraling into the next flashpoint.
According to more of Rutte’s words, summarized via The Guardian:
• Rutte also urged for more equal “burden-sharing” as some allies “are doing a lot” and a few are “doing nothing”. He stressed the positive contributions of countries including Norway, Holland, Germany, Denmark, Canada and Sweden.
• Rutte said Russia’s full-scale invasion, launched in February 2022, was “crazy” and said its continuing assault on Ukraine is targeting civilian infrastructure, creating “chaos” for innocent civilians.
• Rutte said Ukraine is ready “to play ball” and come to a deal – acceptable to Kyiv – with the Russian side, but added that the massive Russian attack last night was a “really bad signal” ahead of future negotiations.
Yet, Russia will not “play ball” on these terms, and this signals that US-Russia negotiations continue to be stuck, going nowhere substantial, but the reality remains – at least the two sides are being candid and are communicating.

Mark Rutte in the Verkhovna Rada:

“Winter is very long, but spring will come. Stay strong. Glory to Ukraine!”

Standing ovations.

Well, no one expected such unprecedented support.
There it is — the real helping hand from our partners!

If you didn’t believe it before, just look… pic.twitter.com/YK0QWQoSON
— Marta Havryshko (@HavryshkoMarta) February 3, 2026
This represents Europe keeping up its intractable position, also as territorial concessions are a prime point of disagreement. US officials have at times signaled their view that European leaders are more hostile to peace, or even thwarting it, amid Trump’s apparent good-faith efforts to bring a resolution to the war which is about to enter its fifth year, after hundreds of thousands have perished. Still, Trump could bring pressure on Kiev – including halting all arms deliveries, and forcing it to make serious land concessions – but there’s as yet no evidence he’s done this in any meaningful way.

There are different reports about the latest meetings.

• Breaking News From Miami, Teheran (Helmer)

Nuri al-Said, the long-serving but ill-fated Iraqi prime minister of the 1940s and 1950s, once said that you can rent an Arab but you can’t buy him. On July 15, 1958, he ended up shot by an Iraqi Army coup, buried, dug up, and his corpse mutilated as it was dragged through the streets of Baghdad. His end confirmed his truth. President Vladimir Putin knows better than most that the Nuri Pasha maxim applies to American government officials up to and including the presidents — except that they don’t honour their promises, demand more bribes, and survive intact to die in bed (most of them).

Still, Putin has delegated Kirill Dmitriev, a US-educated and trained investment banker, to deliver the bribes (left, right) to President Donald Trump (extreme right) and his go-betweens, and return with what Dmitriev claims to be their promises for terms of settlement of the Ukraine war, the lifting of sanctions, and the release of about $300 billion in Central Bank of Russia (CBR) funds frozen and part-confiscated over the past four years.
Putin has done this so that he can ask the General Staff, the intelligence services, and the Security Council what they make of the deal by a show of thumbs up, thumbs down, after Dmitriev presents the costs and benefits of his proposal and the Trump administration’s response. Dmitriev was sent back to Miami last weekend. When he returned to report to the Kremlin, spokesman Dmitry Peskov said “there will be no details. You’ve heard the conceptual assessments from both sides, from Dmitriev and from Witkoff. In general, these were quite positive and constructive talks.” Witkoff had tweeted the adjectives, “productive and constructive”.
Witkoff also revealed that several Americans were with him at the meeting with Dmitriev: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Jared Kushner and Joshua Gruenbaum. This is the first time Putin has authorized a single representative to meet a full US delegation. On January 22, in addition to Witkoff and Dmitriev, Kushner and Gruenbaum were matched at the Kremlin by Putin himself and Yury Ushakov, the Kremlin national security advisor. Bessent’s attendance in Miami signals the talks with Dmitriev covered terms for ending the US sanctions on Russian trade and assets, including the secondary sanctions on Indian and Chinese purchases of Russian oil. Bessent’s press office at the US Treasury has remained silent; so too his Twitter stream.
At the same time, Bessent has continued to sharpen sanctions against Iran, tweeting “the regime has chosen to squander what remains of the nation’s oil revenues on nuclear weapons development, missiles, and terrorist proxies around the world. President Trump stands with the people of Iran and has ordered Treasury to sanction members of the regime. Treasury will continue to target Iranian networks and corrupt elites that enrich themselves at the expense of the Iranian people. This includes the regime’s attempts to exploit digital assets to evade sanctions and finance cybercriminal operations. Like rats on a sinking ship, the regime is frantically wiring funds stolen from Iranian families to banks and financial institutions around the world. Rest assured. Treasury will act.”

They try very hard to make Tulsi look bad.

• A Bigger Backstory, Vindicating DNI Tulsi Gabbard (CTH)

The Intelligence Community Inspector General (ICIG) delivered the “read and return” intelligence report to congress that sits at the background of an anonymous whistleblower complaint against Director of National Intelligence, DNI Tulsi Gabbard. [CBS Story] In addition to delivering the report, the ICIG also delivered a declassified letter outlining the framework of the backstory [SEE HERE]. I strongly urge pe ople to take a few minutes and read both links above, particularly the pdf of the ICIG report that frames the complaint. In essence, the same playbook the IC tried to create the impeachment narrative against President Trump (2019), they used again against DNI Tulsi Gabbard.

Now, the story gets a little weedy, so at the risk of yet another subpoena for outlining highly classified intelligence information simply by using public sourcing information and strategic brain mapping to put dots together, the easiest way to explain what has happened is to tell the big picture story of it. People opposed to President Trump inside the National Intelligence Council (NIC), which in 2025 was a sub-silo inside the CIA, wrote an analysis saying the Venezuela gang ‘Tren de Aragua” (TdA) was not officially affiliated with the Venezuela government. Therefore, when President Trump and Secretary Rubio defined TdA as an officially recognized terrorist group, the analysis was intended to separate the TdA violence from the official U.S. policy toward Venezuela.
[The NIC is the “federal agency” being described in the media reports. I suspect the report’s authors were Mike Collins and Maria Langan-Riekhof or close associates therein.]
The “highly classified” component to the analysis, the part that intentionally skewers the telling of the story, is almost certainly the sourcing for the NIC analysis.Here I would estimate with 90%+ confidence, that a CIA asset within the Venezuela government was the source of the intelligence saying TdA is not officially aligned with the Venezuelan govt. That CIA asset could be someone very close to former dictator Nicholas Maduro, or someone currently inside the transitional government. That source makes the component to the NIC analysis “highly classified.” [However, it also fulfills the goals and operational agenda of the people who want to weaponize the “whistleblower angle.]
Now, I want to break out a component here because it is directly related to the reason for anti-Trump IC to manufacture this official CIA-NIC analysis. Remember, Judge James Boasberg’s argument against deporting TdA members was based on his refusal to accept the deportees were designated terrorists. Venezuela would not take them back, so President Trump sent them to the maximum-security prison in El Salvador. This is where the policy of the Trump administration runs into the lawfare created by the manufactured CIA analysis. The IC aligns with Lawfare. Insert the familiar name Mary McCord here and you will see why momentarily, including her personal relationship with Judge James Boasberg who appointed Mary McCord as amicus curiae to the FISA Court.
The CIA analysis saying TdA is not an official agency of the Venezuela government. This becomes a hot button issue around the deportation of the TdA gang members as terrorists. Trump, Rubio, Noem and Homan using the designation to facilitate fast removal and deportation, while Lawfare operate using the technical definitions of “terrorist group” against the intentions of the administration. That’s the baseline for the construct, and that also explains why Judge James Boasberg doubles, triples and quadruples down against the DOJ on this issue.

“Ohio Democratic Attorney General candidate Elliot Forhan is running on the catchy pledge that “I will kill Donald Trump.”

• Rep. Jerry Nadler Triggers Outcry Over Violent Rhetoric Against ICE (Turley)

Rep. Jerry Nadler (D., NY) is under fire this week for joining other Democratic members in reckless rhetoric to fuel the growing threats against federal law enforcement officers. Nadler suggested that citizens could be justified in shooting masked agents, a chilling claim made earlier by other Democratic leaders. The New York Post reported the comments made in a Judiciary Committee hearing. Nadler declared: “What is really the major problem in this country today is the fascism in our streets. The attacks on American citizens, by masked hoodlums. If you were attacked by a masked person, you might think you were being kidnapped. You’d be justified in shooting the person — to protect yourself.”

The agents are wearing masks because different groups are actively publishing their identities and personal information online. The result has not only been doxxing but threats made against the families of these agents. Democratic politicians have pledged to assist in the effort to “unmask” and publish the identities of these officers as threats soar. For many, these statements suggest that they have a license under laws like Stand Your Ground to shoot at agents and claim mistaken self-defense. The continued use of such rhetoric in the face of soaring attacks and threats against officers is the worst form of demagoguery.
At the same time, members like Rep. Dan Goldman (D. NY) deny that there is evidence of a sharp increase in attacks despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary.Notably, Nadler and his colleagues pushed for the impeachment of Donald Trump for what they called his inflammatory rhetoric on January 6th despite his call for the protests to remain peaceful. Other members are engaging in the same hyperbolic rhetoric to appeal to the growing mob on the left. Sen. Chris Murphy (D. Conn.) seems the most unhinged: “What is happening in Minnesota right now is a dystopia. ICE is tear gassing elementary schools. It is disappearing legal residents into cars. It is murdering American citizens.”
Aspiring Democrats are getting the message. Total Wine billionaire David Trone — who is running to recapture his Maryland congressional district from fellow Democrat Rep. April McClain-Delaney, declared this week that the federal government is “literally executing people on the streets” in “not just Minneapolis… all over the United States.” Ohio Democratic Attorney General candidate Elliot Forhan is running on the catchy pledge that “I will kill Donald Trump.” It is a race to the bottom as Democratic leaders try to take the lead in mob politics.
When combined with the rationalization for the use of lethal force against officers, this rhetoric is not just inflammatory but dangerous. We have heard these voices before in our history. As discussed in Rage and the Republic, we have a rising class of new Jacobins, politicians and pundits who are pandering to the mob. History does not bode well for these politicians seeking to ride the wave of rage when the mob turns against them..

“…personally singled out X owner Elon Musk, accusing the billionaire of spreading “disinformation” about his decision to grant amnesty to half a million illegal immigrants last week..”:”

• Spain Announces Major Social Media Crackdown (RT)

Spain will ban social media use for children under 16 and hold tech executives personally accountable for “hateful content” spread on their platforms, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez announced on Tuesday. Speaking at the World Government Summit in Dubai, Sanchez said that his administration will implement five measures to regulate social media, with sweeping consequences for free speech. “First, we will change the law in Spain to hold platform executives legally accountable for many infringements taking place on their sites,” he announced, explaining that executives who fail to remove “criminal or hateful content” will face criminal charges.

Most jurisdictions view social media sites as ‘platforms’ rather than ‘publishers’, meaning users themselves are responsible for the content they post. Sanchez’ proposed change goes beyond the scope of the EU’s Digital Services Act, which mandates fines for platforms that fail to remove “disinformation” after being alerted to it. Sanchez did not explain what constitutes “hateful content,” while the text of the DSA does not explain the term “disinformation.” Sanchez said that his government would also turn “algorithmic manipulation and amplification of illegal content” into a criminal offense, track and study “how digital platforms fuel division and amplify hate,” ban social media use for under-16s, and launch a criminal investigation into alleged offenses committed by Grok, TikTok, and Instagram.
During his speech, Sanchez personally singled out X owner Elon Musk, accusing the billionaire of spreading “disinformation” about his decision to grant amnesty to half a million illegal immigrants last week. On Sunday, Musk accused Spanish MEP Irene Montero of “advocating genocide” after she declared that she wants a “replacement of right-wingers” by migrants. Sanchez said that five other European countries, which he called a “coalition of the digitally willing,” would pass similar legislation. France passed a much narrower bill banning under-15s from social media last week, while Greece is “very close” to announcing a similar ban, Reuters reported on Tuesday.

“…the emails instead show the convicted sex offender frequently disparaging the president, calling him “stupid” and questioning his mental fitness…”:”

• ‘I Wasn’t Friendly With Epstein’ – Trump (RT)

US President Donald Trump has denied being friends with Jeffrey Epstein, accusing the late convicted sex offender of plotting against him. Last week, the US Department of Justice released the final batch of over 3 million pages, 2,000 videos, and 180,000 images under the Epstein Files Transparency Act, legislation signed by Trump in November, compelling the agency to publish data tied to federal criminal investigations into the disgraced financier. The US president’s name is mentioned in the files on at least 3,000 occasions.

The documents also show that Epstein, who died in a New York jail in 2019 while awaiting trial on federal sex-trafficking charges, had communication with multiple high-profile US figures, including former President Bill Clinton and billionaires Bill Gates and Elon Musk. Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform on Monday that “not only wasn’t I friendly with Jeffrey Epstein but, based upon information that has just been released by the Department of Justice, Epstein and a SLEAZEBAG lying ‘author’ named Michael Wolff, conspired in order to damage me and/or my Presidency.”
“Unlike so many people that like to ‘talk’ trash, I never went to the infested Epstein island but, almost all of these Crooked Democrats, and their Donors, did,” he insisted. Trump already promised on Saturday that he would sue Wolff, a US journalist behind the 2018 unauthorized autobiography ‘Fire and Fury: Inside the Trump White House’. Wolff said in an Instagram message on Sunday that he wasn’t sure what had caused Trump’s anger, but acknowledged that he had encouraged Epstein to “go public with what he knew about Trump.”
The journalist featured in many of the Epstein files published by the DOJ last November. In an email from February 2016, Wolff suggested that the disgraced financier could become the “bullet” to end Trump’s first presidential campaign. The DOJ prefaced its latest release with a statement, saying the emails revealed no suggestion from Epstein that Trump “had done anything criminal or had any inappropriate contact with any of his victims.” According to the agency, the emails instead show the convicted sex offender frequently disparaging the president, calling him “stupid” and questioning his mental fitness.

Hard to surprise Homan; he’s been doing it for years.

• Tom Homan Pulls 700 Agents Out of Minnesota (Matt Margolis)

Border Czar Tom Homan is making changes in Minneapolis, and while the left may think the changes signal a retreat, they do not. It’s anything but. “Given this increase in unprecedented collaboration, and as a result of the need for less law enforcement officers to do this work in a safer environment, I have announced effective immediately, we will draw down seven hundred people effective today. Seven hundred law enforcement personnel,” Homan said.

He also said Customs and Border Protection personnel have been fully integrated into the ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) team under a single, unified chain of command. “We have also fully integrated CBP personnel into the ICE ERO team structure under one unified chain of command. Not two chains of command, there’d be one chain of command here,” Homan said, adding that the approach reflects standard practice in major enforcement efforts. “Any large enforcement operation I’ve ever been involved with, there’s one chain of command, and that’s where we’re moving forward.”
Homan said ICE will return to its traditional model of targeted immigration enforcement. He noted that, “moving forward, ICE will be conducting targeted immigration enforcement operations, like ICE has traditionally done for decades, based on reasonable suspicion to question and detain.” He said those operations, along with investigations into transnational criminal organizations, will focus on national security and public safety. “ICE will conduct these operations and transnational criminal organization investigations with a focus on national security and public safety,” Homan said.
Homan emphasized that prioritizing serious threats does not mean abandoning broader enforcement. “I want to be clear, just because you prioritize public safety threats don’t mean we forget about everybody else,” he said. “We will continue to enforce the immigration laws in this country.” Some on the left may see this as a victory for their cause. Trust me, it’s not. Homan called it a “safer, smarter ICE strategy” that is only possible due to the cooperation with local authorities and a more efficient use of manpower. He said ICE now has “an unprecedented number of counties communicating with us now and allowing ICE to take custody of illegal aliens before they hit the streets,” calling the level of cooperation “unprecedented.”
In other words, the Trump administration has persuaded Walz and Frey to allow local law enforcement to assist ICE agents, making it easier and safer for them to do their jobs. “I’ll say it again, this is efficient and requires only one or two officers to assume custody of a criminal alien target, rather than eight or ten officers going into the community and arresting that public safety threat,” Homan said, adding that this model “frees up more officers to arrest or remove criminal aliens.”
He stressed that pulling agents off repetitive street operations and instead taking custody of offenders directly from jails increases overall enforcement capacity. “More officers taking custody of criminal aliens directly from the jails means less officers on the street doing criminal operations,” Homan said, adding that “this is smart law enforcement, not less law enforcement.” Homan said the strategy improves safety across the board. “It’s safer for the community, safer for the officers, and safer for the alien,” he said, and he pointed specifically to coordination in Minnesota as an example: “This coordination also makes it far more safe for the Twin Cities.” He added, “arresting a public safety threat in the safety and security of a jail is the safest thing we could do.”

“Much of the chaos in Minneapolis stems from the sanctuary state not honoring ICE detainers. ”

• Minnesota Counties Begin Cooperating With ICE (ZH)

Border czar Tom Homan revealed moments ago at a press conference in Minneapolis that an unprecedented number of counties are now coordinating with federal authorities and allowing ICE to take custody of illegal aliens before they reach the streets. As a result, Homan noted, fewer federal agents are needed in the metro area. “We currently have an unprecedented number of [Minnesota] counties communicating with us now and allowing ICE to take custody of illegal aliens before they hit the streets,” Homan said. Homan continued, “I have announced that, effective immediately, we will draw down 700 people effective today. 700 law enforcement personnel.”

At the end of last week, Homan said federal immigration officials had made “a lot of progress” with local officials in Minnesota, signaling a possible shift in enforcement tactics amid rising tensions following recent deadly shootings involving federal immigration agents. Homan’s second news conference in Minneapolis comes after he replaced Gregory Bovino as the lead of ICE operations. He recently warned that “justice is coming” for the far-left groups funding the attacks on ICE on the ground.
Much of the chaos in Minneapolis stems from the sanctuary state not honoring ICE detainers. This forced the Trump administration to surge federal agents into the Democratic-run town to retrieve illegals. Then, far-left militant groups and nonprofits unleashed a well-coordinated pressure campaign (“Signal-Gate”), which only suggests to us that the Democrats’ plan all along was in hopes of spreading revolution nationwide ahead of spring. Well played by Homan and the Trump administration in pushing for a major de-escalation now that local counties are coordinating with federal authorities on ICE detainers.
But why were ICE detainers not being honored in the first place? It’s time to rethink the sanctuary status of left-wing-controlled cities.

No love lost on Sundance’s part: “…subversive operatives are actively successful because of his incompetence…”:

• FBI Director Kash Patel Outlines Fulton County Objective (CTH)

As background for this interview, I’m going to say something that generally will not be received well by many. I have it on very good authority that FBI Director Kash Patel’s organization is currently one of the biggest impediments to successful execution of Trump administration domestic policy goals.

Specifically stated, DC operatives within the FBI are creating, manufacturing and leaking information against the goals and objectives of the White House, DOJ and other administration executive offices. In short, Kash Patel does not have his arms around the agency and subversive operatives are actively successful because of his incompetence. Accept it or disregard it, but that is the honest expressed sentiment from officials who are having to deal with the consequence.
All of that said, here is FBI Director Kash Patel appearing on Fox News to again emphasize that the agency is working in a supportive role on various domestic issues of concern. Not “lead“, “support.”

https://twitter.com/WallStreetApes/status/2019018096686616718

These files are a BOMBSHELL.

Thanks to the @JudiciaryGOP, we now have proof that the EU has been actively censoring legal content that goes against their agenda—and that they interfered in at least 8 European elections, including the Dutch elections of 2023 and 2025, by meeting… https://t.co/jM5frsaSxq pic.twitter.com/TGju1wQqPO
— Eva Vlaardingerbroek (@EvaVlaar) February 3, 2026

Activist: "Every cow adds carbon to the atmosphere."
Farmer: "Only if the total number of cows is increasing."
Activist: "What?"
Farmer: "Stable populations are carbon neutral. Methane breaks down in twelve years back to CO2. Same CO2 the grass absorbed last year."
Activist: "But… pic.twitter.com/hIFigijFNQ
— Sama Hoole (@SamaHoole) February 3, 2026

Have A Blessed Day Everybody. You Are Loved. pic.twitter.com/opkaEHKVO8
— Axel Vasa (@SummmertC) February 27, 2025

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Debt Rattle January 12 2022

Jan 122022

January 12, 2022 Posted by Raúl Ilargi Meijer at 9:50 am Finance Tagged with: Biden, boosters, Fauci, filibuster, Jim Crow, murder, Omicron, Rand Paul, Spain, vaxx tax 88 Responses »

Caravaggio Burial of St. Lucy 1608

• Rand Paul Driving Violent Threats Against Me, Fauci Says (R.)

• Fauci Confronts Rand Paul Over Murder Plot (RT)

• A 30-year Lie On Misplaced Vaccines (Girardot)

• Omicron May Be Headed For A Rapid Drop In US and Britain (AP)

• Medical Experts Shred Latest CDC COVID-19 Study (JTN)

• Spain First EU Country To Suggest Downgrading Covid To ‘Like The Flu’ (Sun)

• Repeated Covid Boosters Not Viable Strategy Against New Variants – WHO (G.)

• It Turns Out That, If You Doubted Covid’s Deadliness, You Were Correct (AT)

• Quebec Plans To Hit Unvaccinated With A ‘Significant’ Tax (NP)

• Scots May Have To Wear Facemasks In Public For Years To Come – Sturgeon (DM)

• Covid Loses 50% Of Ability To Infect After 10 Seconds In Office Air (NYP)

• Biden Backs Calls To Abolish Key Senate Procedure (RT)

• Biden, Harris Bash Republicans As ‘Totalitarian’, Wanting ‘Jim Crow 2.0’ (JTN)

Djokovic

So before the sanctimonious virtue mob pile into Novak Djokovic for making a personal decision on his medical autonomy, perhaps they should also watch this video about what else he has done during the pandemic.pic.twitter.com/rsp5Q9Baib

— James Melville (@JamesMelville) January 10, 2022

Fauci started out saying that who disagrees with him is against science. This is a lot more dangerous. Now anybody who disagrees with him is trying to kill him.

• Rand Paul Driving Violent Threats Against Me, Fauci Says (R.)

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the top U.S. infectious disease official, on Tuesday accused Republican Senator Rand Paul of spreading misinformation that has sparked threats of violence against him and his family while distracting the public from the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. At a Senate health committee hearing, Fauci had his latest heated back-and-forth with Paul, a lawmaker from Kentucky and supporter of former President Donald Trump. Fauci said Paul was focused on misinformed attacks rather than oversight aimed at addressing the health care crisis that has so far killed more than 800,000 people in the United States. Paul’s website accuses Fauci of “ignoring good advice, and lying about everything from masks to the contagiousness of the virus” and on Tuesday the senator accused Fauci of smearing other scientists who disagreed with him.

Fauci said Paul was distorting the truth. “There you go again, you just do the same thing every hearing,” Fauci told the senator, accusing him of making personal attacks that had no relation to reality. ‘ “He’s doing this for political reasons,” Fauci continued, pointing to fundraising appeals on Paul’s website next to a call to have Fauci fired. “It distracts from what we’re all trying to do here today, (which) is get our arms around the epidemic and the pandemic that we’re dealing with, not something imaginary,” Fauci said. Fauci has faced sharp criticism from some conservatives and death threats from people who object to measures such as vaccination and masking that he has advocated to halt the pandemic. Fauci said misinformation had fueled such threats. “What happens when he (Paul) gets out and accuses me of things that are completely untrue is that all of a sudden, that kindles the crazies out there and I have … threats upon my life, harassment of my family and my children,” Fauci said.

Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) and Dr. Anthony Fauci clash – part 2 pic.twitter.com/I0YaJ1iDTf

— Nietzsche fan (@nietzsche_1984) January 11, 2022

“A planner who believes he is The Science leads to an arrogance that justifies in his mind using government resources to smear and destroy the reputations of other scientists that disagree with him..”

• Fauci Confronts Rand Paul Over Murder Plot (RT)

Senator Rand Paul (R-Kentucky) has accused Dr. Anthony Fauci of being responsible for over 800,000 US deaths from the coronavirus. The Biden administration’s covid czar said Paul’s criticism put his life in danger. The latest clash between Paul and Fauci came on Tuesday at the Senate Health Committee hearing on the US response to Covid-19 variants. At one point, President Joe Biden’s chief medical adviser held up a printout of a page on the Kentucky senator’s website, with a “Fire Dr. Fauci” banner, to claim that such rhetoric inspired a California man arrested last month for allegedly plotting to murder him. The man, arrested in Iowa on December 21, had an AR-15 rifle and multiple magazines, and told police he was driving to Washington, DC to kill Fauci, the doctor told senators.

“You are making a catastrophic epidemic for your political gain,” Fauci told Paul. Paul pointed to Fauci, as the lead architect of the US government’s pandemic response, and asked how he could call any of it – the lockdowns, mask and vaccine mandates, boosters – a success when over 800,000 people have died. The libertarian-leaning Republican also called out Fauci for being a central planner whose arrogance led to compounding mistakes. “The idea that a government official like yourself would claim unilaterally to represent science and that any criticism of you would be considered a criticism of science itself is quite dangerous,” Paul said. “A planner who believes he is The Science leads to an arrogance that justifies in his mind using government resources to smear and destroy the reputations of other scientists that disagree with him,” the senator added.

“This is not only antithetical to the scientific method, it is the epitome of cheap politics and it is reprehensible.” This was a reference to last month’s revelations that Fauci had worked with National Institutes of Health (NIH) Director Francis Collins in 2020 to discredit critics of lockdowns who signed the Great Barrington Declaration. Emails released by Congress showed Collins asking Fauci for a “quick and devastating published take down of its premises” and later praising him for an “excellent” job.

.@RandPaul to Fauci: "Do you really think it’s appropriate to use your $420,000 salary to attack scientists that disagree with you?" pic.twitter.com/tpjwypg1qz

— The Post Millennial (@TPostMillennial) January 11, 2022

“How can an injection in the deltoid stimulate an immunity in the mucus?”

• A 30-year Lie On Misplaced Vaccines (Girardot)

In the accelerated development of anti-COVID vaccines, the focus was essentially on developing the right “code” to transfer to the immune system, mainly on the relatively narrow Spike protein, as you all know by now. They also focused on the best delivery vehicle – the lipid nanoparticle – and optimal manufacturing processes. However, vaccine effectiveness depends on many other factors. A systems approach was needed, not a pinpoint solution approach. It’s not enough to find and to present the right antigens – with the right quality – to the immune system, even packed into the latest and greatest technology…

Unfortunately, after a year of vaccination and 9.5 billion doses, vaccine failure is visible to everybody to acknowledge: unforeseen transmission, explosion of cases… If you believe “Our World In Data”, we’ve had 240 million infections in 2021 – when we vaccinated like never before. We only had 70 million in 2020 when we had no vaccines… Based on case numbers, the vaccine is not even putting a dent in the epidemic. Either by media-induced panic, by sheer incompetence, or possibly by customary corruption, vaccine stakeholders have presented a completely false narrative on anti-COVID vaccine effectiveness.

For nearly a year now, I have been exposing two critical inconsistencies in terms of the location of the vaccine-induced immunity that make it nearly impossible for these vaccines to be effective: How can an injection in the deltoid stimulate an immunity in the mucus? Respiratory virus like SARS-COV-2 typically propagate in the mucus: mouth, nose, digestive tract and lungs. For propagation to be stopped in the mucus, notably in the lungs, a preemptive immune arsenal needs to be stimulated there. This is exactly what occurs once recovered from a natural infection: a sterilising immunity is provided by potent resident memory T and B-cells – along with neutralising IgA antibodies – that are positioned in large numbers as a sentinel force to kill in-the-egg any starting infection.

I have addressed this at length in my June article comparing natural immunity and vaccine-induced immunity as well as in my August article on pre-existing immunity. I am not alone in thinking along these lines; many renowned scientists share a similar perspective that intramuscular vaccines cannot work for mucosal viruses. [..] .. it is very unlikely that any intramuscular vaccines can ever work to stop COVID; the vaccines are injected in the wrong location: the muscle, too far away from the virus entry point to stimulate any response there. This is not related to mRNA or DNA technologies, attenuated virus vaccines are also de facto ineffective. This is simply a question of location of where the vaccine is delivered… And the fact that millions have been vaccinated against the flu in the arm every year for decades, most likely uselessly shouldn’t change this reality …

Given the emphasis of vaccine manufacturers and public health authorities on antibodies, you’re all probably thinking: – “Hey Marc ?! What about neutralising antibodies?” The question is: What can antibodies do to stop a propagation that is cell-to-cell? To start, vaccine-induced antibodies are also misplaced … circulating in the blood away from the mucus. And, even if a few antibodies were to migrate to the mucus, they would very much be useless against a virus that propagates cell-to-cell. Fundamentally, cell-to-cell propagation means the virus expansion happens out-of-reach of antibodies (at least before Omicron). Antibodies can’t bind with viruses that are inside cells, only T-cells can chase down virions inside cells by instructing infected cells to self-destruct…

..“simply because everybody who could be infected will be infected..”

• Omicron May Be Headed For A Rapid Drop In US and Britain (AP)

Scientists are seeing signals that COVID-192 s alarming omicron wave may have peaked in Britain and is about to do the same in the U.S., at which point cases may start dropping off dramatically. The reason: The variant has proved so wildly contagious that it may already be running out of people to infect, just a month and a half after it was first detected in South Africa. “It’s going to come down as fast as it went up,” said Ali Mokdad, a professor of health metrics sciences at the University of Washington in Seattle. At the same time, experts warn that much is still uncertain about how the next phase of the pandemic might unfold. The plateauing or ebbing in the two countries is not happening everywhere at the same time or at the same pace.

And weeks or months of misery still lie ahead for patients and overwhelmed hospitals even if the drop-off comes to pass. “There are still a lot of people who will get infected as we descend the slope on the backside,” said Lauren Ancel Meyers, director of the University of Texas COVID-19 Modeling Consortium, which predicts that reported cases will peak within the week. The University of Washington’s own highly influential model projects that the number of daily reported cases in the U.S. will crest at 1.2 million by Jan. 19 and will then fall sharply “simply because everybody who could be infected will be infected,” according to Mokdad.

In fact, he said, by the university’s complex calculations, the true number of new daily infections in the U.S. — an estimate that includes people who were never tested — has already peaked, hitting 6 million on Jan. 6. In Britain, meanwhile, new COVID-19 cases dropped to about 140,000 a day in the last week, after skyrocketing to more than 200,000 a day earlier this month, according to government data. Kevin McConway, a retired professor of applied statistics at Britain’s Open University, said that while cases are still rising in places such as southwest England and the West Midlands, the outbreak may have peaked in London. The figures have raised hopes that the two countries are about to undergo something similar to what happened in South Africa, where in the span of about a month the wave crested at record highs and then fell significantly.

More about the “Covid leads to diabetes” nonsense.

• Medical Experts Shred Latest CDC COVID-19 Study (JTN)

Even as CDC Director Rochelle Walensky has started sounding more like COVID-19 policy skeptics, the agency continues promoting research that fits its agenda but quickly provokes professional challenge. For the second time in less than a month, medical experts pounced on the methodology of a study published in the agency’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, which is not peer-reviewed. The CDC’s COVID and diabetes researchers found that children and teens who recovered from infections are “up to” 2.5 times likelier to develop diabetes, which was uncritically reported across mainstream media Friday. The increased risk to this age group shows the importance of COVID prevention, “including vaccination for all eligible persons,” researchers wrote. “Prevent COVID-19 by using tools like masks and #vaccines for those eligible,” the agency tweeted.

Medical professors at the University of Pittsburgh, University of California San Francisco and Harvard’s medical and public health schools quickly provided informal — and highly critical — peer review. The study has “really really major limitations,” according to Walid Gellad, director of Pitt’s Center for Pharmaceutical Policy & Prescribing, citing its own disclosures. The researchers used a “single ICD-10-CM code, did not include laboratory data at the time of diagnosis, and could not reliably distinguish between type 1 and type 2 diabetes,” the study says. It’s also missing information on “covariates” including obesity that “could have affected the association” between infection and diabetes. “The CDC is back with a new piece of propagan— I mean, a new publication,” UCSF’s Vinay Prasad wrote in a lengthy analysis, calling the study “embarrassing.”

The analysis “hinges on the idea that age-sex matched kids without covid should be comparable to the kids who got covid in terms of risk of diabetes,” but the infection may be more likely to affect “kids of lower socioeconomic status, of certain races, and kids who were already overweight or suffering from medical problems,” he wrote. “Does the CDC attempt to correct for any of these confounders? Not at all,” Prasad said. Also not considered: “the true denominator” of infections as determined by seroprevalance and the increased blood tests for kids who get treated for COVID. He was baffled why the CDC claimed the study showed the need for child vaccinations, “a topic of wide global debate, with differing recommendations by nation (US vs UK).”

How do you get 27 different countries to agree on this though?

• Spain First EU Country To Suggest Downgrading Covid To ‘Like The Flu’ (Sun)

SPAIN could be the first European country to downgrade Covid-19 to a” flu-like” status – just two years after clocking 1,000 deaths a day from the virus. Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez pushed his EU counterparts to debate the possibility of treating Covid like the flu. The European leader told a local radio channel the situation in Spain “is not what we faced a year ago” and that it was time “to evaluate the evolution of COVID to an endemic illness”. The move would see lockdowns and daily infection counts scrapped in favour of a system that would track Covid cases like the regular flu. It comes as a string of positive studies show Omicron is milder than other strains, with data revealing the risk of hospitalisation is 50 to 70 per cent lower than with Delta. Covid booster jabs protect against Omicron and offer the best chance to get through the pandemic, health officials have repeatedly said.

The Sun’s Jabs Army campaign is helping get the vital extra vaccines in Brits’ arms to ward off the need for any new restrictions and protect the NHS. The measure is set to meet stiff resistance from Germany and France where vaccinations rates remain low and where French President Emmanuel Macron has promised to make engaging in public life as tough as possible for the unvaccinated. Sánchez cited Spain’s “exemplary” vaccine uptake which has seen more than 90 per cent of the population over 11 years old become fully vaccinated and 85 per cent of over 60s get a booster as a case for the radical change. Spain has also seen their fatality rate drop to 1 per cent, down from 13 per cent at the height of the first wave of Covid-19 when it experienced 1,000 deaths a day. In the UK, 83 per cent of the population aged 12 and over are fully vaccinated while 63 per cent have had their booster jab, according to the latest government figures.

Houston, we have a problem.

• Repeated Covid Boosters Not Viable Strategy Against New Variants – WHO (G.)

World Health Organization experts have warned that repeating booster doses of the original Covid vaccines is not a viable strategy against emerging variants and called for new jabs that better protect against transmission. “A vaccination strategy based on repeated booster doses of the original vaccine composition is unlikely to be appropriate or sustainable,” the WHO Technical Advisory Group on Covid-19 Vaccine Composition (TAG-Co-VAC) said in a statement published on Tuesday. The group of experts, who are working to assess the performance of Covid-19 vaccines, called for the development of new vaccines that not only protect people who contract Covid against falling seriously ill but also better prevent people from catching the virus in the first place, in order to deal with emerging Covid variants such as Omicron.

“Covid-19 vaccines that have high impact on prevention of infection and transmission, in addition to the prevention of severe disease and death, are needed and should be developed,” the advisory group said. This, it said, would help lower “community transmission and the need for stringent and broad-reaching public health and social measures”. It also suggested that vaccine developers should strive to create jabs that “elicit immune responses that are broad, strong, and long-lasting in order to reduce the need for successive booster doses”. As the virus evolves and until new vaccines are available, “the composition of current Covid-19 vaccines may need to be updated”, the group said.

According to the WHO, 331 candidate vaccines are being worked on around the world. The UN health agency has so far given its stamp of approval to versions of eight different vaccines. A growing body of evidence indicates that the Omicron Covid variant is not only far more transmissible than previous variants, but also better at dodging some vaccine protections. Earlier this week, Pfizer Inc chief executive Albert Bourla said a redesigned Covid-19 vaccine that specifically targets the Omicron variant is likely to be needed and his company could have one ready to launch by March.

“We know now that two-thirds of deaths for Americans with COVID are people with six or more comorbidities.”

• It Turns Out That, If You Doubted Covid’s Deadliness, You Were Correct (AT)

Walensky has acknowledged that, when it comes to vaccinated people who still died from COVID, almost 80% of them had one foot in the grave and one foot on a banana peel: “The overwhelming number of deaths, over 75%, occurred in people who had at least four comorbidities. So, really, these are people who were unwell to begin with. And yes, really encouraging news in the context of Omicron; this means not only just to get your primary series but to get your booster series. And yes, we’re really encouraged by these results.” The study, from the CDC, says: “Among 1,228,664 persons who completed primary vaccination during December 2020–October 2021, severe COVID-19–associated outcomes (0.015%) or death (0.0033%) were rare. Risk factors for severe outcomes included age ≥65 years, immunosuppressed, and six other underlying conditions. All persons with severe outcomes had at least one risk factor; 78% of persons who died had at least four.”

Another interesting thing that emerged during the same appearance is that, as with any other virus, people are most contagious when they’re not yet symptomatic. This renders much of the ten-day lockdown period irrelevant, as even Walensky conceded: “Isolation, we talk about isolation in the context of people who’ve had a positive test, who know that they are infected. And we now have dozens of studies referenced on the CDC website that have demonstrated that you are most infectious in the one to two days before your symptoms and the two to three days after your symptoms. So by five days after your symptoms, the vast majority of your contagiousness is really behind you.”

Dr. Scott Atlas appeared on Tucker Carlson to discuss Walensky’s revelations and was unimpressed. When it comes to morbidity, he said, it’s long been known, only it was kept from the American public. Atlas also reminded Tucker and his audience that there’s a huge difference between being hospitalized for COVID and being hospitalized with COVID. As even Fauci conceded, the latter was mostly true for children. Atlas then said something truly surprising that will further devastate those on the left: “We know now that two-thirds of deaths for Americans with COVID are people with six or more comorbidities.” In other words, unless your health is fragile to begin with, you’re going to be fine

Tucker Atlas

Tucker Carlson & Dr. Scott Atlas discuss how the CDC is finally coming clean after their years-long deception about Covid death numbers.

"This was an intentional inculcation of fear in the American public." pic.twitter.com/EYCUigvdF8

— Scott Morefield (@SKMorefield) January 11, 2022

This is all about control, not health. Otherwise this tax would be levied on smokers and fat people too.

• Quebec Plans To Hit Unvaccinated With A ‘Significant’ Tax (NP)

The Quebec government wants to impose a “significant” financial penalty on the “small minority” of Quebecers who refuse to get vaccinated against COVID-19. Premier François Legault made the announcement — which would be a first in Canada — during a press conference on Tuesday. He said he was working on the tax with Finance Minister Eric Girard while also reviewing the measure’s legality. “Unfortunately, there is still a small minority, about 10 per cent of the population, that refuses to get vaccinated,” Legault said. “I sense the frustration from Quebecers towards that minority that … is clogging our hospitals.” “That is why I am announcing that we are currently working on a health contribution that will be charged to all Quebec adults who refuse to get vaccinated,” he continued, adding that people with medical exemptions would be excluded from the new tax.

Legault did not announce any details nor a date for the new tax, nor did he specify the amount except to say that it would be “significant.” The premier said that unvaccinated Quebecers currently occupy 50 per cent of intensive care unit beds in the province, despite being one tenth of the population. “It is shocking,” he said. “People who refuse to get vaccinated impose a burden on (health care) personnel and an important financial burden on the majority of Quebecers.” “All adults in Quebec who don’t accept to go get at least a first dose in the next few weeks will have a bill to pay because there are consequences on our health system and its not up to all Quebecers to pay for that,” he added. The measure, which is sure to be controversial both in the province and in Canada, was immediately criticized by opposition party Québec Solidaire as “radical” for “completely” forgetting vulnerable people such as the homeless or those suffering from severe mental health issues.

WTF guidance.

• Scots May Have To Wear Facemasks In Public For Years To Come – Sturgeon (DM)

People in Scotland may have to wear masks in public places for years to come, Nicola Sturgeon has warned. The First Minister insisted that tough curbs dramatically imposed on hospitality venues and large gatherings from Boxing Day had stemmed the spread of Covid, despite official figures showing that Scotland’s virus rate is higher than England’s. And furious business leaders said Miss Sturgeon’s ‘gamble’ with restrictions must end after they failed to make ‘any meaningful difference’ to infections in Scotland. Speaking ahead of today’s announcement about extending restrictions beyond next week, Miss Sturgeon said face coverings ‘might be required in the longer-term to enable us to live with it [Covid] with far fewer protective measures’.

In England, Covid restrictions could start to be lifted this month after Michael Gove said Britain was moving towards a situation where it could ‘live with’ the virus. Downing Street is examining options to lift Plan B measures in stages if cases remain too high to remove them all in one go. Extending Covid passes, due to expire on January 26, would require another bruising clash with Tory backbenchers, which No10 wants to avoid.

But some ministers are pushing for the WFH guidance to be removed first, arguing that it causes the most damage to the economy. Miss Sturgeon told STV’s Scotland Tonight: ‘Sometimes when you hear people talk about learning to live with Covid, what seems to be suggested is that one morning we’ll wake up and not have to worry about it any more, and not have to do anything to try to contain and control it. ‘That’s not what I mean when I say “learning to live with it”. Instead, we will have to ask ourselves what adaptations to pre-pandemic life — face coverings, for example — might be required in the longer-term to enable us to live with it with far fewer protective measures.’

Is this a good thing, or not?

• Covid Loses 50% Of Ability To Infect After 10 Seconds In Office Air (NYP)

The coronavirus loses about 50 percent of its ability to infect about 10 seconds after it becomes airborne in a typical office environment, according to a new study about how the deadly bug survives in exhaled air. “People have been focused on poorly ventilated spaces and thinking about airborne transmission over meters or across a room,” said Prof. Jonathan Reid, director of the University of Bristol’s Aerosol Research Centre, the Guardian reported. “I’m not saying that doesn’t happen, but I think still, the greatest risk of exposure is when you’re close to someone,” said Reid, the lead author of the study, which has not yet been peer-reviewed. “When you move further away, not only is the aerosol diluted down, there’s also less infectious virus because the virus has lost infectivity (as a result of time),” he added.

The UK university researchers’ findings highlight the impact of short-range transmission — and stress the importance of physical distancing and masking up as the best way to avoid infection. While still worthwhile, ventilation was deemed to be less effective, the news outlet reported. The study determined that viral particles quickly lose moisture and dry out after they are expelled from the lungs. The particles’ pH also rises rapidly when the carbon dioxide in their environment drops, the news outlet reported. The relative humidity of the surrounding air affects how fast the particles dry out. When under 50 percent, such as the relatively dry air in an office, the virus had become half as infectious within 10 seconds. But at 90 percent humidity, 52 percent of particles remained infectious after five minutes, dropping to about 10 percent after 20 minutes.

“..Though Biden had spent 36 years in the Senate and repeatedly defended the filibuster when Democrats were in the minority..”

• Biden Backs Calls To Abolish Key Senate Procedure (RT)

US President Joe Biden has called for the Senate to change the rule requiring 60 votes to move a bill forward, saying it was the only way to pass the two Democrat initiatives federalizing elections and ensure “majority rule.” Speaking in Atlanta, Georgia on Tuesday, Biden declared “this is the moment to decide to defend our elections, to defend our democracy.” He said he’d been having “quiet conversations” about the change with members of Congress over the past two months. “I’m tired of being quiet,” Biden said, raising his voice. “Today, I’m making it clear. To protect our democracy, I support changing the Senate rules whichever way they need to be changed, to prevent a minority of senators from blocking actions on voting rights.” “The majority should rule in the US Senate,” he added.

While Democrats have a nine-vote majority in the House of Representatives, the Senate is split 50-50, with Vice President Kamala Harris acting as the tie-breaker. While this 51-vote majority has been used to approve Biden’s nominations, the long-standing filibuster rule requiring at least 60 votes to pass bills stands in the way of the Freedom to Vote Act and the John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act. Both have been proposed by Democrats as a way of imposing a federal standard on US elections in response to what they called “voter suppression” bills passed by Republican state legislatures after the controversial 2020 vote. Repeating that accusation on Tuesday, Biden argued that “history has never been kind to those who sided with voter suppression over voter rights,” and compared anyone opposed to the bills to racists and segregationists.

Though Biden had spent 36 years in the Senate and repeatedly defended the filibuster when Democrats were in the minority, on Tuesday, he argued that “the threat to our democracy is so grave that we must find a way to pass these voting rights bills.” Last week, on the anniversary of the January 6 Capitol riot, Biden called the 2020 election “the greatest demonstration of democracy in the history of this country.” Officially, Biden won the highest number of votes in US history.

On track to lose the midterms.

“..Jan. 6, which he described as a moment “so stark” it “stopped time”..”

• Biden, Harris Bash Republicans As ‘Totalitarian’, Wanting ‘Jim Crow 2.0’ (JTN)

President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris at a rally Tuesday in Georgia bashed Republicans several times throughout voting rights speeches. Former President Donald Trump and the GOP were accused by Biden and Harris of making it more difficult for people to vote, trying to create a totalitarian state and being on the side of Confederate President Jefferson Davis. Both officials mentioned the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. “Across our nation anti-voter laws could make it more difficult for as many as 55 million Americans to vote. That is one out of six people in our country,” Harris said during her push to institute national election reform through the Democrat-led Freedom to Vote Act and the John Lewis Voting Rights Act. Republicans have stood against these laws, which they say will eviscerate state voter ID laws and create more election fraud.

“The proponents of these laws are not only putting in place obstacles to the ballot box, they are also working to interfere with our election to get the outcomes they want and to discredit those that they don’t,” Harris jabbed at the GOP over Jan. 6 and possibly over the discredited Trump-Russia scandal. “If we stand idly by, our entire nation will pay the price for generations to come,” Harris grimly said. She also voiced her support for abolishing the filibuster, which she said was not constitutionally protected. “Senate Republicans have exploited arcane rules to block these bills. And let us be clear: the Constitution of the United States gives the Congress the power to pass legislation and nowhere, nowhere does the constitution give a minority the right to unilaterally block legislation.”

Biden began his speech by reflecting on Jan. 6, which he described as a moment “so stark” it “stopped time” and divides “all that came before and everything that followed.” He also said Jan. 6 was a “dreadful day when a dagger was literally held at the throat of American democracy.” While several Jan. 6 rioters have been charged with carrying knifes, such as Douglas Jensen who allegedly carried a knife with a 3-inch blade in his pocket at the time, there is no evidence to support anyone “literally” brought a dagger into the Capitol, much less held it against someone’s throat.

GOAT

Twitter, explained in 15 seconds pic.twitter.com/4dp4qytgwf

— David Hobby (@strobist) January 10, 2022

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Debt Rattle April 19 2020

Apr 192020

April 19, 2020 Posted by Raúl Ilargi Meijer at 11:13 am Finance Tagged with: bailout, Boris, buybacks, care homes, children, coronavirus, Covid19, homeless, Japan, pandemics, PPE, Russia, Spain, Sweden, Wuhan 60 Responses »

Unknown A couple wearing smog masks, London 1953

• Did COVID19 Outbreak Start Months Earlier And Not In Wuhan? (RT)

• New Wave Of Infections Threatens To Collapse Japan Hospitals (AP)

• Florida Prison System Begins To Reveal Ravages Of Coronavirus (MH)

• UK Care Home Deaths ‘Far Higher’ Than Official Figures (BBC)

• Anger In Sweden As Elderly Pay Price For Coronavirus Strategy (O.)

• A Scam To Enrich Execs: COVID19 Bailouts Fuel More Share Buybacks (Feierstein)

• The Trickle-Up Bailout (Matt Taibbi)

• Russia Reports Record Daily Rise In Coronavirus Cases (R.)

• Spain To Allow Children Outside After Six Weeks (BBC)

• CDC Reviewing ‘Stunning’ Testing Results From Boston Homeless Shelter (B25)

• 38 Days When Britain Sleepwalked Into Disaster (Times)

• UK Medical Staff Face Weeks Without Protective Gowns (O.)

• Lockdown Puts Increasing Strain On Britain’s Food System (Ind.)

• Pandemics Have Reshaped The World In Unpredictable Ways Throughout History (ProsM)

“The curve is flattening; we can end lockdown now”

“This parachute has slowed my rate of descent; I can take it off now”

Compare Spain and Greece: What difference does two weeks make? 100X pic.twitter.com/6GATJpyXJo

— Yaneer Bar-Yam (@yaneerbaryam) April 19, 2020

• Cases 2,345,476 (+ 84,051 from yesterday’s 2,261,425)

• Deaths 161,196 (+ 6,462 from yesterday’s 147,378)

From Worldometer yesterday evening -before their day’s close-

From Worldometer – NOTE: among Active Cases, Serious or Critical fell to 3%

From SCMP:

From COVID19Info.live:

Just as everyone says it was the lab.

• Did COVID19 Outbreak Start Months Earlier And Not In Wuhan? (RT)

The novel coronavirus may have first passed to humans somewhere in southern China months before the outbreak in the city of Wuhan, a new study found, cutting against widely held theories about the origins of the pandemic. Mapping a “network” of coronavirus genomes and tracing mutations over time, a team of researchers led by a Cambridge University geneticist determined the first Covid-19 infection may have come as early as September in a region south of Wuhan, noting the pathogen could have been carried by humans well before it mutated into a more lethal form. “The virus may have mutated into its final ‘human-efficient’ form months ago, but stayed inside a bat or other animal or even human for several months without infecting other individuals,” geneticist Peter Forster told the South China Morning Post.

Phylogenetic network of 160 SARS-CoV-2 genomes © PNAS / Peter Forster

He leads the ongoing yet to be peer-reviewed research, recently published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences journal. “Then, it started infecting and spreading among humans between September 13 and December 7, generating the network we present in [the study]”. Though the virus is thought to have transmitted from bats to another host animal – pangolins are a popular candidate – and finally to humans, the new findings could overturn prevailing ideas as to precisely how, when and where it made the interspecies leap. Initial theories posited the jump to humans took place at a wet market in Wuhan, but the new study has called that into question, suggesting Covid-19 might have originated south of the central-Chinese city.

“If I am pressed for an answer, I would say the original spread started more likely in southern China than in Wuhan.” Any solid conclusions, however, could only be made after analyzing more bats and other potential host animals, as well as tissue samples from early patients, Forster cautioned. “But it is the best assumption we can make at the moment, pending analysis of further patient samples stored in hospitals during 2019,” the researcher told Newsweek in a separate interview.

For two whole months, Shinzo Abe had just one thing in mind: the Olympics. Everything else had to be pushed aside.

• New Wave Of Infections Threatens To Collapse Japan Hospitals (AP)

Hospitals in Japan are increasingly turning away sick people as the country struggles with surging coronavirus infections and its emergency medical system collapses. In one recent case, an ambulance carrying a man with a fever and difficulty breathing was rejected by 80 hospitals and forced to search for hours for a hospital in downtown Tokyo that would treat him. Another feverish man finally reached a hospital after paramedics unsuccessfully contacted 40 clinics. The Japanese Association for Acute Medicine and the Japanese Society for Emergency Medicine say many hospital emergency rooms are refusing to treat people including those suffering strokes, heart attacks and external injuries.

Japan initially seemed to have controlled the outbreak by going after clusters of infections in specific places, usually enclosed spaces such as clubs, gyms and meeting venues. But the spread of virus outpaced this approach and most new cases are untraceable. The outbreak has highlighted underlying weaknesses in medical care in Japan, which has long been praised for its high quality insurance system and reasonable costs. Apart from a general unwillingness to embrace social distancing, experts fault government incompetence and a widespread shortage of the protective gear and equipment medical workers need to do their jobs. Japan lacks enough hospital beds, medical workers or equipment. Forcing hospitalization of anyone with the virus, even those with mild symptoms, has left hospitals overcrowded and understaffed.

[..] Medical workers are now reusing N95 masks and making their own face shields. The major city of Osaka has sought contributions of unused plastic raincoats for use as hazmat gowns. Abe has appealed to manufacturers to step up production of masks and gowns, ventilators and other supplies. A government virus task force has warned that, in a worst-case scenario where no preventive measures were taken, more than 400,000 could die due to shortages of ventilators and other intensive care equipment. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has said the government has secured 15,000 ventilators and is getting support of Sony and Toyota Motor Corp. to produce more.

Japanese hospitals also lack ICUs, with only five per 100,000 people, compared to about 30 in Germany, 35 in the U.S. and 12 in Italy, said Osamu Nishida, head of the Japanese Society of Intensive Care Medicine. Italy’s 10% mortality rate, compared to Germany’s 1%, is partly due to the shortage of ICU facilities, Nishida said. “Japan, with ICUs not even half of Italy’s, is expected to face a fatality overshoot very quickly,” he said. Japan has been limiting testing for the coronavirus mainly because of rules requiring any patients to be hospitalized. Surging infections have prompted the Health Ministry to loosen those rules and move patients with milder symptoms to hotels to free up beds for those requiring more care.

Wherever you put large groups of people together, this happens with a highly contagious virus.

• Florida Prison System Begins To Reveal Ravages Of Coronavirus (MH)

For weeks the Florida Department of Corrections refused to address rumors that inmates with coronavirus-like symptoms — or those who had come into contact with symptomatic inmates or staff — were being segregated by the hundreds from the general population. That changed on Friday, when the agency acknowledged that more than 4,500 inmates are being isolated in one way or another as COVID-19, the highly infectious disease caused by the novel coronavirus, has spread throughout the third-largest prison system in the country. As of Friday evening, 45 inmates and 71 staff members had tested positive for COVID-19, according to the FDC. Four inmates had died, all of whom had been incarcerated at Blackwater River Correctional Facility, a compound near Pensacola run under contract by the Geo Group.

The medical examiner in Santa Rosa County revealed the deaths. The new data was made public amid a growing chorus of criticism by a handful of lawmakers, including an influential Republican, state Sen. Jeff Brandes, who is vice chairman of the Senate Criminal Justice Committee. The department found itself on the defensive this week when those four deaths were revealed not by prison administrators — including its communication staff, which has ignored questions from reporters for several weeks — but by journalists who sought out information from the Santa Rosa County medical examiner. After the first two deaths were reported by the News Service of Florida, confirmation was hastily posted on the department’s website.

About 20 times higher.

• UK Care Home Deaths ‘Far Higher’ Than Official Figures (BBC)

New data has added to growing evidence that the number of deaths linked to coronavirus in UK care homes may be far higher than those recorded so far. The National Care Forum (NCF) estimates that more than 4,000 elderly and disabled people have died across all residential and nursing homes. Its report comes amid calls for accurate data on virus-linked deaths. Only 217 such care home deaths have been officially recorded in England and Wales up to 3 April. The NCF, which represents not-for-profit care providers, said its findings highlight significant flaws in the official reporting of coronavirus-related death statistics.

It collected data from care homes looking after more than 30,000 people in the UK, representing 7.4% of those people living in one of the country’s thousands of care settings. It said that, across those specific homes, in the week between 7 April and 13 April, there had been 299 deaths linked to coronavirus. That was treble the figure for the previous week and double that in the whole of the preceding month. If that number was reflected across all residential and nursing homes, NCF estimated there have been 4,040 coronavirus-related deaths in care homes which are not yet included in official figures.

And then the nurses start dying too.

• Anger In Sweden As Elderly Pay Price For Coronavirus Strategy (O.)

It was just a few days after the ban on visits to his mother’s nursing home in the Swedish city of Uppsala, on 3 April, that Magnus Bondesson started to get worried. “They [the home] opened up for Skype calls and that’s when I saw two employees. I didn’t see any masks and they didn’t have gloves on,” says Bondesson, a start-up founder and app developer. “When I called again a few days later I questioned the person helping out, asking why they didn’t use face masks, and he said they were just following the guidelines.” That same week there were numerous reports in Sweden’s national news media about just how badly the country’s nursing homes were starting to be hit by the coronavirus, with hundreds of cases confirmed at homes in Stockholm, the worst affected region, and infections in homes across the country.

Since then pressure has mounted on the government to explain how, despite a stated aim of protecting the elderly from the risks of Covid-19, a third of fatalities have been people living in care homes. Last week, as figures released by the Public Health Agency of Sweden indicated that 1,333 people had now died of coronavirus, the country’s normally unflappable state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell admitted that the situation in care homes was worrying. “This is our big problem area,” said Tegnell, the brains behind the government’s relatively light-touch strategy, which has seen it ask, rather than order, people to avoid non-essential travel, work from home and stay indoors if they are over 70 or are feeling ill.

The same day prime minister Stefan Löfven said that the country faced a “serious situation” in its old people’s homes, announced efforts to step up protections, and ordered the country’s health inspectorate to investigate. Lena Einhorn, a virologist who has been one of the leading domestic critics of Sweden’s coronavirus policy, told the Observer that the government and the health agency were still resisting the most obvious explanations. “They have to admit that it’s a huge failure, since they have said the whole time that their main aim has been to protect the elderly,” she said. “But what is really strange is that they still do not acknowledge the likely route. They say it’s very unfortunate, that they are investigating, and that it’s a matter of the training personnel, but they will not acknowledge that presymptomatic or asymptomatic spread is a factor.”

The agency’s advice to those managing and working at nursing homes [..] is that they should not wear protective masks or use other protective equipment unless they are dealing with a resident in the home they have reason to suspect is infected. Otherwise the central protective measure in place is that staff should stay home if they detect any symptoms in themselves. “Where I’m working we don’t have face masks at all, and we are working with the most vulnerable people of all,” said one care home worker, who wanted to remain anonymous. “We don’t have hand sanitiser, just soap. That’s it. Everybody’s concerned about it. We are all worried.” “The worst thing is that it is us, the staff, who are taking the infection in to the elderly,” complained one nurse to Swedish public broadcaster SVT. “It’s unbelievable that more of them haven’t been infected.”

No more of this.

• A Scam To Enrich Execs: COVID19 Bailouts Fuel More Share Buybacks (Feierstein)

To anyone doubting the Covid-19 bailouts will line executives’ pockets, American Airlines CEO Doug Parker says he’ll “find a way around” the rules against it. This after making $150 million while AAL’s stock plummeted 70%. Stock buybacks are the ultimate vehicle of self-enrichment. Consider the following as a ‘case study’ of Wall Street’s legal fraud. Under CEO Doug Parker’s leadership from 2013-2020, American Airlines has seen its stock plummet 70%. When one looks at Parker’s pay awarded vs the company’s three-year average economic profits, his pay-for-performance metrics are abominable. The media worships Parker for his stewardship of AAL during this crisis and reports that, for the past three years, Parker’s salary and bonus were zero.

However, they fail to mention that AAL’s legal Ponzi stock-buyback scheme saw Parker’s 2016-2018 take-home pay rocket to $70.2 million. (According to the FT, Parker’s total award from selling stock since 2013 is $150 million). It’s not bad for Parker, but it’s horrendous for AAL employees, shareholders and American taxpayers who will be stuffed with a $20 billion bailout. Fair? Not on your life. Debt-fuelled stock buybacks and dividend payments are engineered to artificially increase stock prices so that self-interested CEOs like Parker can “earn” higher compensation. Increasing debt creates an illusion of better earnings. However, buybacks cannibalize corporate balance sheets, leaving taxpayers exposed to unlimited “bailouts” when these leveraged bets go wrong.

What’s the difference between rogue hedge fund managers and airline CEOs? Not much, except some airline CEOs have been given golden parachutes to the tune of nearly $17.5 million. So who is enabling these CEOs to line their pockets with taxpayer money? Last summer, the US Federal Reserve released the results of its annual Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR). The CCAR is a bank stress test, which all the banks passed, and after passing the stress test, the Federal Reserve approved $125 billion in share buybacks! Yet, even though the banks all passed the stress test, the Financial Times recently reported that the president and chief executive of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis (who oversaw TARP during the GFC of 2008) is recommending big US banks raise $200 billion in capital now to act as a buffer against economic shock from the “coronavirus pandemic.” This is a bit like putting on your seatbelt after your airbag has already deployed.

“..80% of the benefit of the bill went to just 43,000 taxpayers each earning over $1 million a year. The average tax break for those 43,000 individuals was $1.6 million..”

• The Trickle-Up Bailout (Matt Taibbi)

Because the CARES Act was rushed to the floor, members didn’t have all of the information they might have wanted before the vote. After the bill passed, Democratic staffers sent these tax provisions in the CARES Act, sections 2303 and 2304, to the Joint Committee on Taxation, to be scored. They were stunned to learn they would cost $195 billion over ten years. In other words, what seemed like a run-of-the-mill offhand legislative pork provision ended up dwarfing the airline bailout and other main parts of the bill. “The cost of caring for this small slice of the wealthiest one percent is greater than the CARES Act funded for all hospitals in America,” says Texas Democrat Lloyd Doggett. “It’s greater than CARES provided for all state and local governments.”

The JCT analysis found that 80% of the benefit of the bill went to just 43,000 taxpayers each earning over $1 million a year. The average tax break for those 43,000 individuals was $1.6 million, an interesting number when one considers the loudness of the controversy over $1,200 relief checks for everyone else. Doggett joined Rhode Island Senator Sheldon Whitehouse in sending a letter to the Trump administration, demanding to know the provenance of these tax breaks. “This irresponsible provision must be repealed,” he says. It’s possible we’ll find out someday whose idea it was to insert those breaks. By then, however, other windfalls from the Covid-19 rescue might have rendered the $195 billion bailout appetizer quaint.

With the Fed’s announcement on April 9th of a $2.3 trillion program that includes purchases of junk bonds, the toolkit for support of the financial economy now encompasses nearly every conceivable official response apart from subsidy of stock markets. The sheer quantity of money raining down on the finance sector appears transformational, a “joyful noise” heard around the world.

Russia has done something very wrong.

• Russia Reports Record Daily Rise In Coronavirus Cases (R.)

Russia on Sunday reported a record rise of 6,060 new coronavirus cases over the previous 24 hours, bringing its nationwide tally to 42,853, the Russian coronavirus crisis response center said. The number of coronavirus cases in Russia began rising sharply this month, although it had reported far fewer infections than many western European countries in the outbreak’s early stages.

There should be different ways.

• Spain To Allow Children Outside After Six Weeks (BBC)

Spanish children have been kept indoors since 14 March, under strict measures to curb the spread of Covid-19. Now Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez aims to relax the rule on 27 April so they can “get some fresh air”. Barcelona Mayor Ada Colau, who has young children herself, this week pleaded with the government to allow children outside. Spain has seen more than 20,000 deaths since the start of the pandemic and almost 200,000 reported cases. In a televised briefing on Saturday evening, Mr Sánchez said Spain had left behind “the most extreme moments and contained the brutal onslaught of the pandemic”.

But he said he would ask parliament to extend Spain’s state of alarm to 9 May as the achievements made were “still insufficient and above all fragile” and could not be jeopardised by “hasty decisions”. Another 565 deaths were reported on Saturday, well down from the peak of the pandemic, and the government allowed some non-essential workers to resume construction and manufacturing last Monday. However, the main lockdown measures remain in place, with adults only allowed out to visit food shops and pharmacies or work considered essential. Children have been barred from leaving their homes completely.

“The number of positives was shocking, but the fact that 100 percent of the positives had no symptoms was equally shocking..”

• CDC Reviewing ‘Stunning’ Testing Results From Boston Homeless Shelter (B25)

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is now “actively looking into” results from universal COVID-19 testing at Pine Street Inn homeless shelter. The broad-scale testing took place at the shelter in Boston’s South End a week and a half ago because of a small cluster of cases there. “It was like a double knockout punch. The number of positives was shocking, but the fact that 100 percent of the positives had no symptoms was equally shocking,” said Dr. Jim O’Connell, president of Boston Health Care for the Homeless Program, which provides medical care at the city’s shelters. O’Connell said that the findings have changed the future of COVID-19 screenings at Boston’s homeless shelters.

“All the screening we were doing before this was based on whether you had a fever above 100.4 and whether you had symptoms,” said O’Connell. “How much of the COVID virus is being passed by people who don’t even know they have it?” The 146 people who tested positive were immediately moved to two different temporary isolation facilities in Boston. According to O’Connell, only one of those patients needed hospital care, and many continue to show no symptoms. “If we did universal testing among the general population, would these numbers be similar?” said Lyndia Downie, president and executive director at the Pine Street Inn.

“I think there are no many asymptomatic people right now. We just don’t know. We don’t have enough data on universal testing to understand how many asymptomatic people are contagious.” Hundreds of tests are now set to be conducted at additional Boston homeless shelters in the coming days. “It tells you, you don’t know who’s at risk. You don’t know what you need to do to contain the virus if you don’t actually have the details or facts,” said Marty Martinez, Boston’s chief of Health and Human Services.

His own party appears to be after his head.

• 38 Days When Britain Sleepwalked Into Disaster (Times)

On the third Friday of January a silent and stealthy killer was creeping across the world. Passing from person to person and borne on ships and planes, the coronavirus was already leaving a trail of bodies. The virus had spread from China to six countries and was almost certainly in many others. Sensing the coming danger, the British government briefly went into wartime mode that day, holding a meeting of Cobra, its national crisis committee. But it took just an hour that January 24 lunchtime to brush aside the coronavirus threat. Matt Hancock, the health secretary, bounced out of Whitehall after chairing the meeting and breezily told reporters the risk to the UK public was “low”.

This was despite the publication that day of an alarming study by Chinese doctors in the medical journal, The Lancet. It assessed the lethal potential of the virus, for the first time suggesting it was comparable to the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, which killed up to 50 million people. Unusually, Boris Johnson had been absent from Cobra. The committee — which includes ministers, intelligence chiefs and military generals — gathers at moments of great peril such as terrorist attacks, natural disasters and other threats to the nation and is normally chaired by the prime minister. Johnson had found time that day, however, to join in a lunar new year dragon eyes ritual as part of Downing Street’s reception for the Chinese community, led by the country’s ambassador.

It was a big day for Johnson and there was a triumphal mood in Downing Street because the withdrawal treaty from the European Union was being signed in the late afternoon. It could have been the defining moment of his premiership — but that was before the world changed. That afternoon his spokesman played down the looming threat from the east and reassured the nation that we were “well prepared for any new diseases”. The confident, almost nonchalant, attitude displayed that day in January would continue for more than a month. Johnson went on to miss four further Cobra meetings on the virus.

As Britain was hit by unprecedented flooding, he completed the EU withdrawal, reshuffled his cabinet and then went away to the grace-and-favour country retreat at Chevening where he spent most of the two weeks over half-term with his pregnant fiancée, Carrie Symonds. It would not be until March 2 — another five weeks — that Johnson would attend a Cobra meeting about the coronavirus. But by then it was almost certainly too late. The virus had sneaked into our airports, our trains, our workplaces and our homes. Britain was on course for one of the worst infections of the most deadly virus to have hit the world in more than a century. Last week, a senior adviser to Downing Street broke ranks and blamed the weeks of complacency on a failure of leadership in cabinet. In particular, the prime minister was singled out. “There’s no way you’re at war if your PM isn’t there,” the adviser said.

6 days ago, in an answer to a Parliamentary Question, the Canadian Deputy Prime Minister said all governments of The Five Eyes were informed by their intelligence agencies in early January of the dangers posed by the coronavirus: https://t.co/tHeIjxVHmH

— Leighton Jenkins (@jenkinsleighto) April 18, 2020

If Osaka can ask for raincoats to be donated as hazmat suits, so can Britain. No shortage of raincoats.

• UK Medical Staff Face Weeks Without Protective Gowns (O.)

Doctors and nurses treating Covid-19 patients face shortages of protective full-length gowns for weeks to come, it has emerged, as anger builds over the failure to stockpile the garments. Critical shortages of the gowns have meant that some trusts have already had to make do with the best available alternatives as a result of the shortages, which forced a sudden change in Public Health England (PHE) guidelines on the use of gowns on Friday. Concerns are being raised within the NHS over why the gowns did not form part of the government’s pandemic stockpile. It is understood shortages are already forcing some NHS workers to use the controversial new guidelines, which tell them to wear a plastic apron with coveralls should the specialist fluid-repellent gowns run out. Workers are also advised to reuse washed aprons.

Meanwhile, surgeons are being told by senior colleagues not to put themselves at risk should they be unable to wear a protective gown. Professor Neil Mortensen, from the Royal College of Surgeons of England, said surgeons should not risk their health if fluid-repellent gowns or coveralls could not be used. “We are deeply disturbed by this latest change to personal protective equipment (PPE) guidance, which was issued without consulting expert medical bodies,” he said. “After weeks of working with PHE and our sister medical royal colleges to get PPE guidance right, this risks confusion and variation in practice across the country.”

Health unions warned that staff could begin to refuse to work if they felt the new guidelines put them at serious risk of contracting the coronavirus. Sara Gorton, Unison’s head of health, said: “Managers must be truly honest with health workers and their union reps over the weekend. If gowns run out, staff in high-risk areas may well decide that it’s no longer safe for them to work.” Last night, the British Medical Association (BMA) also warned that it would support doctors who refused to work with inadequate PPE. “There are limits to the level of risk staff can be expected to expose themselves and their patients to,” said Dr Chaand Nagpaul, BMA council chair.

No kidding, there’s a video somewhere here entitled: “Flocks of chickens to be slaughtered over coronavirus.. “

• Lockdown Puts Increasing Strain On Britain’s Food System (Ind.)

From a mosque in Banbury, taxi drivers left out of work during the lockdown are picking up an unusual fare: hundreds of doughballs and garlic dip that had been destined for local pizza restaurants and are now being diverted to people’s homes. Yasmin Kaduji, who runs Banbury Community Fridge is one of thousands of people working overtime across the UK to get meals to three million people thought to be going hungry due to the coronavirus pandemic. Yet, at the same time British farmers are warning they have been forced to throw millions of gallons of milk down the drain because it no longer has a buyer, cheesemakers are binning artisan cheese and meat processors have an overabundance of sirloin, rib-eye steaks and prime roasting joints. Supply and demand are severely misaligned.

While supermarket stocks have returned closer to normal after being plundered last month, more deep-rooted problems lay ahead for Britain’s food supplies which are set to come under increasing strain as lockdown is extended for at least another three weeks and could go on for much longer. The problem is not that there is not enough food but that the well-established routes that supply it have been upended so abruptly. When we saw empty shelves last month, the primary cause was not inconsiderate stockpilers, as some government ministers claimed, but the fact that a massive part of the food industry had been shut down overnight without a plan in place for how hundreds of millions of meals would be redirected.

Tim Lang, professor of food policy, at London’s City University, argues that the coronavirus pandemic has exposed the fragility of our food system; a system which stretches out over thousands of miles, dozens of countries, and is reliant on migrant labour and air freight. That system has been reshaped, according to Professor Lang’s analysis, largely to suit the interests of nine companies which sell 90 per cent of the food we buy. Supermarkets have been happy to rely on sprawling supply chains that are left exposed during a crisis, as long as the price is right and the product sells. This, along with a “dangerously complacent” government, has left the UK vulnerable in the current situation, Professor Lang argues.

But the incumbent order always protests violently first.

• Pandemics Have Reshaped The World In Unpredictable Ways Throughout History (ProsM)

In just four years—from 1347 to 1351—between a third and a half of the population of Europe died. That would be world-shaking enough in itself, but it also completely rewrote the social order. Before the Black Death, European society had for centuries been structured around what we’d later call feudalism: to over-simplify massively, the system by which poorer people would work for richer ones in exchange for access to their land, and put up with having no freedom of movement because otherwise they didn’t eat. But when plague caused the population to collapse, food and land prices plummeted, too. Land without workers turned out to be worthless, so the lords found themselves competing for labourers. Despite assorted ruling class efforts to overcome the laws of supply and demand, wages rose, and keeping peasants tied to particular scraps of land proved impossible.

The Black Death didn’t just kill people. It probably killed feudalism, too. It’s too early to know how coronavirus might reshape 21st-century society. But we can certainly speculate. Perhaps, as large chunks of the workforce simultaneously shift to working from home for the first time, it’ll kill the idea that you need to be in the office to get stuff done. If it turns out that employees will do their work even if they’re not literally in their managers’ line of sight, bosses could finally shake their addiction to presenteeism. That could have all sorts of unpredictable knock-on effects: less pressure on transport networks, lower emissions, even relief for overheated housing markets as people discover they can live further from work. Or perhaps it could drive an increase in mothers’ participation in the workforce: more flexible office culture, after all, would make it easier to combine work with caring responsibilities.

[..] Now that a fear of financial ruin might drive sick, contagious people to work when they should be in isolation, perhaps we can go back to talking about the state as the enabler of our freedoms rather than the barrier to them. Or perhaps it won’t: where this will take us, we just don’t know, and your guess is as good as mine. But pandemics have been reshaping the world in unpredictable ways throughout history. If this crisis is even a fraction as serious as it seems, don’t be surprised if the world afterwards looks very unlike the world before.

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Autriche ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/FV7mHMGNRC

— -VÉNOM- (@anthonysarti11) April 18, 2020

Pirro is certified nuts:

Holy fucking shit pic.twitter.com/7YR95gXisZ

— Quoth the Raven (@QTRResearch) April 19, 2020

This ad is nuts too:

This is the most devastating political ad I’ve seen in years. It reveals the truth about Trump and China, and that truth is ugly. pic.twitter.com/52cNf9Ay9u

— Joe Scarborough (@JoeNBC) April 18, 2020

And then there are the good people…

https://twitter.com/ValaAfshar/status/1251634686348210178

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Debt Rattle February 11 2019

Feb 112019

February 11, 2019 Posted by Raúl Ilargi Meijer at 10:04 am Finance Tagged with: Brexit, Catalunya, China, collapse, Corbyn, customs union, Escher, insects, May, OPEC, Orban, Pompeo, Spain, Warren 6 Responses »

Pablo Picasso Glass, bread and cheesee 1923

• Plummeting Insect Numbers ‘Threaten Collapse Of Nature’ (G.)

• IMF Cuts 2019 Global Growth Forecasts Again: “We Have No Idea” (Mish)

• UK Public Services Face Post-Brexit Squeeze (R.)

• Theresa May Rejects Corbyn’s Ideas For A Compromise Brexit Plan (G.)

• May Rejects Corbyn’s Customs Union Offer, What’s Next? (Mish)

• All The Ways Gen X Is Financially Wrecked (MW)

• Warren: Trump Might Not Be President Or ‘Even A Free Person’ In 2020 (MW)

• Viktor Orbán: No Income Tax For Hungarian Women With Four Or More Children (G.)

• Pompeo Trip Marks US Re-Engagement With Long-Overlooked Central Europe (R.)

• China Retail Earnings Up 8.5% During New Year Holiday (R.)

• Oil Prices Fall On Rising US Rig Count, Pressure On OPEC+ Supply Cuts (R.)

• Spain’s Right Wing In Mass Protests Against PM’s Catalan Policy (Pol.eu)

• Imitating Escher Is Not Easy (G.)

This should be the only topic left on all media and political agendas. Instead, everyone’s talking about music awards. Mankind had its promises, but they came with fatal flaws. The ability to lie to ourselves and others -including about the relative importance of various events- is doing us in.

We do have the brain structure to foresee future dangers, but also to discard them. We can see ourselves do things we know are devastatingly stupid, but we cannot stop ourselves from doing them. In the end, no matter how smart we think we are, only stupidity is left.

Even here, when people talk about the collapse of nature, the media present it as something separate from us. While we’re right in the middle of it, and we know it only too well.

• Plummeting Insect Numbers ‘Threaten Collapse Of Nature’ (G.)

The world’s insects are hurtling down the path to extinction, threatening a “catastrophic collapse of nature’s ecosystems”, according to the first global scientific review. More than 40% of insect species are declining and a third are endangered, the analysis found. The rate of extinction is eight times faster than that of mammals, birds and reptiles. The total mass of insects is falling by a precipitous 2.5% a year, according to the best data available, suggesting they could vanish within a century. The planet is at the start of a sixth mass extinction in its history, with huge losses already reported in larger animals that are easier to study. But insects are by far the most varied and abundant animals, outweighing humanity by 17 times. They are “essential” for the proper functioning of all ecosystems, the researchers say, as food for other creatures, pollinators and recyclers of nutrients.

Insect population collapses have recently been reported in Germany and Puerto Rico, but the review strongly indicates the crisis is global. The researchers set out their conclusions in unusually forceful terms for a peer-reviewed scientific paper: “The [insect] trends confirm that the sixth major extinction event is profoundly impacting [on] life forms on our planet. “Unless we change our ways of producing food, insects as a whole will go down the path of extinction in a few decades,” they write. “The repercussions this will have for the planet’s ecosystems are catastrophic to say the least.” The analysis, published in the journal Biological Conservation, says intensive agriculture is the main driver of the declines, particularly the heavy use of pesticides. Urbanisation and climate change are also significant factors.

“If insect species losses cannot be halted, this will have catastrophic consequences for both the planet’s ecosystems and for the survival of mankind,” said Francisco Sánchez-Bayo, at the University of Sydney, Australia, who wrote the review with Kris Wyckhuys at the China Academy of Agricultural Sciences in Beijing. The 2.5% rate of annual loss over the last 25-30 years is “shocking”, Sánchez-Bayo told the Guardian: “It is very rapid. In 10 years you will have a quarter less, in 50 years only half left and in 100 years you will have none.” One of the biggest impacts of insect loss is on the many birds, reptiles, amphibians and fish that eat insects. “If this food source is taken away, all these animals starve to death,” he said. Such cascading effects have already been seen in Puerto Rico, where a recent study revealed a 98% fall in ground insects over 35 years.

[..] “The main cause of the decline is agricultural intensification,” Sánchez-Bayo said. “That means the elimination of all trees and shrubs that normally surround the fields, so there are plain, bare fields that are treated with synthetic fertilisers and pesticides.” He said the demise of insects appears to have started at the dawn of the 20th century, accelerated during the 1950s and 1960s and reached “alarming proportions” over the last two decades. He thinks new classes of insecticides introduced in the last 20 years, including neonicotinoids and fipronil, have been particularly damaging as they are used routinely and persist in the environment: “They sterilise the soil, killing all the grubs.” This has effects even in nature reserves nearby; the 75% insect losses recorded in Germany were in protected areas.

The world must change the way it produces food, Sánchez-Bayo said, noting that organic farms had more insects and that occasional pesticide use in the past did not cause the level of decline seen in recent decades. “Industrial-scale, intensive agriculture is the one that is killing the ecosystems,” he said. [..] “When you consider 80% of biomass of insects has disappeared in 25-30 years, it is a big concern.”

“It’s refreshing to hear Lagarde say “we have no idea”. The IMF should say that every month.”

• IMF Cuts 2019 Global Growth Forecasts Again: “We Have No Idea” (Mish)

For the fourth time since October, the IMF revised its global growth forecast lower. The Wall Street Journal reports IMF Lowers 2019 Global Growth Forecast. “The global economy is starting the year on weaker footing, according to new quarterly forecasts from the International Monetary Fund.” That report was on January 21. For details, see the IMF’s World Economic Outlook Update, January 2019.

“Last month, the IMF lowered its global economic growth forecast for this year from 3.7% to 3.5%. Lagarde cited what she called “four clouds” as the main factors undermining the global economy and warned that a “storm” might strike. The risks include “trade tensions and tariff escalations, financial tightening, uncertainty related to (the) Brexit outcome and spillover impact and an accelerated slowdown of the Chinese economy”, she said. Lagarde said trade tensions — mainly in the shape of a tariff spat between the United States and China, the world’s two biggest economies – are already having a global impact. “We have no idea how it is going to pan out and what we know is that it is already beginning to have an effect on trade, on confidence and on markets,” she said, warning governments to avoid protectionism.”

“Lagarde also pointed to the risks posed by rising borrowing costs within a context of “heavy debt” racked up by governments, firms and households. “When there are too many clouds, it takes one lightning (bolt) to start the storm,” she said.” The IMF is perpetually far behind the curve. It never sees the clouds or the lightening bolts in real time. It’s refreshing to hear Lagarde say “we have no idea”. The IMF should say that every month.

As if things are not bad enough. Get out while you can.

• UK Public Services Face Post-Brexit Squeeze (R.)

Many British public services risk ongoing real-terms cuts for years to come, despite a softer fiscal stance from Chancellor Philip Hammond, a major think tank predicted ahead of a half-yearly budget update next month. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) expects Hammond to give more details of the money available for a multi-year review of public spending when he updates budget plans on March 13, just two weeks before Britain is due to leave the European Union. In his annual budget in November, Hammond loosened the government’s purse-strings, giving support to the economy as it slowed ahead of Brexit. However, rising healthcare spending leaves little spare for other public services, the IFS said.

“This suggests yet more years of austerity for many public services — albeit at a much slower pace than the last nine years,” IFS research economist Ben Zaranko said. Public services outside of health, defence and overseas aid saw budgets fall by an average of 3 percent a year in real terms after 2010, and now look set for declines of 0.4 percent a year in inflation-adjusted terms going forward, the IFS predicts. [..] “In the short run … government might well raise spending to support the economy, mitigate the impacts for the worst-hit sectors or areas and provide funding to departments now required to perform additional functions, notably at the border,” the IFS said. In the long run, higher taxes or further spending cuts would be required to pay for this spending, as well as to compensate for weaker growth caused by trade restrictions, the IFS added.

[..] Brexit uncertainty has damaged the economy already and will slow growth further over the long term, even with a deal. Last week the Bank of England estimated the costs to date at 1.5 percent of GDP — more than the forecast budget deficit for 2018/19. During 2016’s referendum campaign, Brexit supporters including former foreign minister Boris Johnson said leaving the EU would free as much as 350 million pounds a week to spend on public services such as healthcare.

OK, where are the street fighting men?

• Theresa May Rejects Corbyn’s Ideas For A Compromise Brexit Plan (G.)

Theresa May has effectively ruled out Labour’s ideas for a compromise Brexit plan, shutting off another potential route to a deal as business groups warned that with less than 50 days to go the departure process was entering the “emergency zone”. The prime minister’s formal response to Jeremy Corbyn’s proposal, in a letter to the Labour leader, stressed her objections to keeping the UK in some form of customs union, saying this would prevent the UK making its own trade deals. But in an apparent renewed bid to win over wavering Labour MPs, May made a concession on environmental and workers’ rights, discounting Corbyn’s idea of automatic alignment with EU standards but suggesting instead a Commons vote every time these change.

The letter comes amid a growing presumption that while May remains officially committed to putting a revised Brexit plan to MPs as soon as possible, in practice this is unlikely to happen before the end of February, if not later. The communities secretary, James Brokenshire, said on Sunday that if no finalised deal were put to the Commons by 27 February, MPs would again be given an amendable motion to consider, allowing them to block a no-deal departure or make other interventions. “If the meaningful vote has not happened, so in other words things have not concluded, then parliament would have that further opportunity by no later than 27 February,” he told BBC1’s Andrew Marr Show.

May remains officially committed to getting the EU to agree to significant changes to the Irish border backstop as a way of winning over the DUP and agitated Tory backbenchers who helped bring about the heavy defeat of her plan. But with the PM’s meetings in Brussels last week yielding no real hope of this, there had been speculation she might embrace suggestions from Corbyn, who last week outlined five commitments Labour needed for it to back a deal, including joining a customs union. In her letter May argued that her own Brexit plan “explicitly provides for the benefits of a customs union” in terms of avoiding tariffs, while allowing “development of the UK’s independent trade policy beyond our economic partnership with the EU”. She wrote: “I am not clear why you believe it would be preferable to seek a say in future EU trade deals rather than the ability to strike our own deals?”

“..she successfully took another four days off the clock.”

• May Rejects Corbyn’s Customs Union Offer, What’s Next? (Mish)

On February 6, Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn offered UK Prime Minister Theresa May a Customs Union Deal in which the Labour party would back a deal with May. She could have easily rejected Corbyn’s offer on the spot. Instead, she successfully took another four days off the clock. Today we see, May Rejects Corbyn’s Offer as Businesses Warn of Brexit Cliff Edge. She wrote: “I am not clear why you believe it would be preferable to seek a say in future EU trade deals rather than the ability to strike our own deals?” Great Question! Actually, the question itself is not great. May could have just as easily asked anything else. Thus, the question was irrelevant.

The importance is Corbyn now has to respond. How long will that take? Even if it’s a single day, that another day off the March 29 Brexit clock. Theresa May has effectively splintered the Labour party. Some want a new referendum, some want Brexit, and some want a custom’s union. Corbyn is now a clear loser in May’s tactics. The other side of May’s gambit is the Tories are now united. They still do not want her deal. [..] The biggest fear for the Tories was a new election. May’s gambit remains what it has always been, to play on the fears of both sides such that they would support her silly deal. While May succeeded on one front, she categorically failed on another. She now needs to win over DUP and splinter the Tories. If she can do that, then she wins. Meanwhile, the clock is running down.

There are many more ways than these.

• All The Ways Gen X Is Financially Wrecked (MW)

Reality bites. While millennials garner much of the negative press around financial issues — they live with their parents because they can’t get jobs! They spend all their money on avocado toast! — Gen Xers may be the ones who are really in trouble. Just 16% of Gen Xers say that they included financial planning in their 2019 goals, according to a recent survey from Allianz Life. That’s compared with 27% of millennials. And when asked what 2019 resolution they were most likely to make, and to keep, just 38% mentioned managing money better and saving more; meanwhile 50% of millennials said that. That lack of planning and goal-keeping could make a bad situation worse — as Gen X may already be financially worse off than other generations in a number of ways.

They’ve got the most credit card debt of anyone — yet still spend more than anyone on non-essentials. Members of Gen X have higher levels of credit card debt — which tends to carry a higher interest rate than most other debt — than other generations. Indeed, credit card debt levels peak between the ages of 45-54 at $9,096, with the second highest levels of debt being or those who are 35-44 at $8,235. Meanwhile, the under 35 set has just $5,808. “Millennials and individuals over 74 years old held the least credit card debt. These two groups are also among the least likely to have a credit card, which can serve as a potential explanation behind the trend we are seeing here,” ValuePenguin explains of their data.

Don’t do it, Elizabeth. Dumb move.

• Warren: Trump Might Not Be President Or ‘Even A Free Person’ In 2020 (MW)

Back in Iowa as a full-fledged presidential candidate, Democrat Elizabeth Warren took aim at President Donald Trump on Sunday, saying he “may not even be a free person” by next year’s election. The Massachusetts senator’s comments came a day after Trump renewed his criticism of her past claims of Native American heritage. In a tweet, Trump called Warren “Pocahontas” and said he would see her “on the campaign TRAIL.” The White House didn’t explain what the president was referring to in his tweet, though some Democrats accused him of making light of the Trail of Tears — the forced removal of Cherokee and several other Native American tribes from their lands in the 1830s. Warren’s campaign wouldn’t say what the senator believes Trump was referencing.

Warren has largely avoided talking about Trump since she began testing the waters for a campaign more than a month ago. During her first of three events Sunday in eastern Iowa, Warren said the president shouldn’t be allowed to dictate the direction of the campaign with divisive attacks. “Every day there is a racist tweet, a hateful tweet — something really dark and ugly,” she said. “What are we as candidates, as activists, as the press, going to do about it? We’re going to chase after those every day?” She continued: “Here’s what bothers me. By the time we get to 2020, Donald Trump may not even be president. In fact, he may not even be a free person.”

Orban’s success: “..a labour shortage means jobs cannot be filled.”

• Viktor Orbán: No Income Tax For Hungarian Women With Four Or More Children (G.)

Hungary’s populist prime minister, Viktor Orbán, has promised that women who have four or more children will never pay income tax again, in a move aimed at boosting the country’s population. Orbán, who has emerged as Europe’s loudest rightwing, anti-immigration voice in recent years, said getting Hungarian families to have more children was preferable to allowing immigrants from Muslim countries to enter. “In all of Europe there are fewer and fewer children, and the answer of the west to this is migration,” said Orbán in his annual state of the nation address on Sunday. “They want as many migrants to enter as there are missing kids, so that the numbers will add up. We Hungarians have a different way of thinking. Instead of just numbers, we want Hungarian children. Migration for us is surrender.”

Orbán’s Fidesz party won a third consecutive electoral victory last year on an anti-migration platform, and the Hungarian prime minister rarely gives a speech without presenting the upcoming years as a do-or-die battle for the future of Europe. He has voiced a hope that after elections in May, all European institutions will be controlled by “anti-migration forces”. He has repeatedly claimed that the Hungarian-born American financier and philanthropist George Soros, a favoured target of the far right across the globe, is masterminding a conspiracy to destroy Europe by promoting mass migration. “The people of Europe have come to a historic crossroads,” Orbán said on Sunday, criticising the “mixed population countries” that result from allowing migration.

The process was moving so quickly, he said, that the transformation of previously Christian countries into those where Christians were a minority would happen in his lifetime. “There is no return ticket,” he said. [..] As the prime minister spoke, anti-Orbán protesters gathered in Budapest for the latest in a series of rallies against the government which began in December after parliament passed a “slave law” allowing employers to demand more overtime from workers. The law is seen as another result of the demographic problems in the country, as a labour shortage means jobs cannot be filled.

And who does Pompeo visit first? Orban of course. Operating in the EU’s own back yard.

• Pompeo Trip Marks US Re-Engagement With Long-Overlooked Central Europe (R.)

When Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visits Hungary, Slovakia and Poland this week he wants to make up for a lack of U.S. engagement that opened the door to more Chinese and Russian influence in central Europe, administration officials say. On a tour that includes a conference on the Middle East where Washington hopes to build a coalition against Iran, Pompeo begins on Monday in Budapest, the Hungarian capital that last saw a secretary of state in 2011 when Hillary Clinton visited. On Tuesday he will be in Bratislava, Slovakia, for the first such high-level visit in 20 years. “This is overdue and needed,” a senior U.S. administration official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. “Our message is we have to show up or expect to lose.

“Our efforts at diplomatic engagement are aimed at competing for positive influence and giving allies in the region an indication of U.S. support and interest in order to have alternatives to China and Russia.” Washington is concerned about China’s growing presence, in particular the expansion of Huawei, the world’s biggest telecom gear maker, in Hungary and Poland. [..] Pompeo will also voice concerns about energy ties with Moscow, and urge Hungary to not support the TurkStream pipeline, part of the Kremlin’s plans to bypass Ukraine, the main transit route for Russian gas to Europe. Hungary gets most of its gas from Russia and its main domestic source of electricity is the Paks nuclear power plant where Russia’s Rosatom is involved in a 12.5 billion-euro ($14 billion) expansion. It is also one of the EU states that benefit most from Chinese investment.

Xi’s conundrum: does he play up how great this is, how it makes his economy look great, or does he try and cut down on borrowing even more, scared that Chinese are borrowing far too much?

• China Retail Earnings Up 8.5% During New Year Holiday (R.)

China’s retailer and catering enterprises earned over 1 trillion yuan ($148.3 billion) during the Lunar New Year holiday, defying an economic slump to rise 8.5 percent from last year, the country’s commerce ministry said late on Sunday. The increase was down to the rapid growth in sales of new-year gifts, traditional foods, electronic products and local speciality products over a six-day holiday period ending on Saturday, the Ministry of Commerce said in a notice on its website. Domestic tourism during the new year break generated total revenues of 513.9 billion yuan, up 8.2 percent on the year, with the number of trips rising 7.6 percent to 415 million, the official Xinhua news agency said on Sunday, citing official data.

The US is pricing itself out of the market: OPEC+ output cuts are meant to support prices, not to allow the US to fill in the gaps.

• Oil Prices Fall On Rising US Rig Count, Pressure On OPEC+ Supply Cuts (R.)

Crude prices fell by around 1 percent on Monday as U.S. drilling activity picked up and as Russia’s biggest oil producer pressured President Vladimir Putin to end the supply cut deal with Middle East-dominated producer club OPEC. [..] In the United States, energy firms last week increased the number of oil rigs operating for the second time in three weeks, a weekly report by Baker Hughes said on Friday. Companies added 7 oil rigs in the week to Feb. 8, bringing the total count to 854, pointing to a further rise in U.S. crude production, which already stands at a record 11.9 million bpd. Elsewhere, the head of Russian oil giant Rosneft, Igor Sechin, has written to the Russian President Vladimir Putin saying Moscow’s deal with the OPEC to withhold output is a strategic threat and plays into the hands of the United States.

Mea culpa. On the news yesterday that the Catalan court cases begin this week, I said nothing appeared to have changed from Rajoy’s days. Not true.

• Spain’s Right Wing In Mass Protests Against PM’s Catalan Policy (Pol.eu)

Tens of thousands gathered in Madrid on Sunday to protest Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s plan to ease tensions with Catalan separatists, in a demonstration uniting the leaders of conservative and far-right parties. The protest of an estimated 45,000 people marked the first time that the leaders of the conservative Popular Party (PP), centrist Ciudadanos and far-right Vox were photographed together, El País reported. Protesters accused Sánchez of “stabbing [Spain] in the back” and called for a snap election because of his government’s decision to accept a long-held demand of Catalan secessionists to appoint a facilitator in talks between pro-independence and pro-unity political parties.

The ruling regional pro-independence parties in Barcelona have rejected the Socialists’ proposed framework for talks and are calling for a new independence vote, which the government opposes. “The time of Pedro Sánchez has ended,” said PP leader Pablo Casado. “There is no more room for surrendering by the Socialists, or further extortion from the separatists. Today, the reconquest begins.” Sánchez said at a separate rally on Sunday that “the government is working for the unity of Spain, and this means uniting Spaniards and not pitting people against one another like the right is doing.” He added: “Democracy is not heads or tails, there are many alternatives. Ours is coexistence, law and dialogue in Catalonia.”

Off topic. What these works show, after you’ve watched them for 2 seconds, is how good Escher was, and others are not. The first one, cats and dogs, depends on cartoon animals. Escher used only real animals. The second comes closest to Escher’s work, but that makes it a bland imitation. The third is straight-up cartoon, not at all something Escher would have done.

• Imitating Escher Is Not Easy (G.)

Alain Nicolas, aged 73, was inspired to create his own tessellations on seeing the work of Escher four decades ago. Escher’s tessellations of interlocking birds, fish and lizards are some of the most recognisable mathematical art of the twentieth century; striking and playful as well as breathtakingly ingenious. Nicolas’ work is also stunning and witty.

Now retired, he spends half his free time designing tessellations and recently finished his 400th. You can see many of them on his extensive website (but don’t peek until you have solved the puzzles!). Drawing tessellations is not easy. It takes a lot of geometrical acuity to make shapes that fit together and are convincing representations.

David Bailey, a British tessellation artist, believes that Nicolas is the best tessellation artist in the world. “His work has everything, recognisable silhouettes, quality, variety, number, level of innovation, next to no padding, and all rendered to a most pleasing standard of finish. Bravo, Alain!” Nicolas has – like Escher – no background in maths, but says all that is required is a sense of wonder and a desire to always do better. Here is a self portrait, sitting in a bar, reading his own book, and calling the waiter with his finger.

Debt Rattle September 3 2018

Sep 032018

September 3, 2018 Posted by Raúl Ilargi Meijer at 8:16 am Finance Tagged with: Africa, Boris, Brexit, BRI, capitalism, China, debt, FusionGPS, May, Spain, Steele, Turkey, Xi 12 Responses »

Vincent van Gogh Courtyard of the hospital in Arles 1889

• China’s ‘Silk Road’ Project Runs Into Debt Jam (AFP)

• Should Africa Be Wary Of Chinese Debt? (BBC)

• China’s Xi Says No Strings Attached To Funds For Africa (R.)

• Anatomy Of A Fusion Smear (WSJ)

• No-Deal Brexit: Study Warns Of Severe Short-Term Impact On UK (G.)

• Boris Johnson Launches Fresh Attack On May’s Brexit Plans (G.)

• Half The Staff Leaves UK’s Brexit Department (Ind.)

• Britain Loses Medicines Contracts As EU Body Anticipates Brexit (G.)

• Emerging Markets Haunt Spanish Banks (DQ)

• Capitalism Is Beyond Saving, and America Is Living Proof (TD)

I’ve been saying for a long time that the BRI (Belt and Road) is China’s attempt at exporting its overcapacity. They make poor countries borrow billions, which these can’t pay back. And then… Only now do other parties wake up to that. And Xi is trying to do some damage control.

• China’s ‘Silk Road’ Project Runs Into Debt Jam (AFP)

China’s massive and expanding “Belt and Road” trade infrastructure project is running into speed bumps as some countries begin to grumble about being buried under Chinese debt. First announced in 2013 by President Xi Jinping, the initiative also known as the “new Silk Road” envisions the construction of railways, roads and ports across the globe, with Beijing providing billions of dollars in loans to many countries. Five years on, Xi has found himself defending his treasured idea as concerns grow that China is setting up debt traps in countries which may lack the means to pay back the Asian giant. “It is not a China club,” Xi said in a speech on Monday to mark the project’s anniversary, describing Belt and Road as an “open and inclusive” project.

Xi said China’s trade with Belt and Road countries had exceeded $5 trillion, with outward direct investment surpassing $60 billion. But some are starting to wonder if it is worth the cost. During a visit to Beijing in August, Malaysia’s Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad said his country would shelve three China-backed projects, including a $20 billion railway. The party of Pakistan’s new prime minister, Imran Khan, has vowed more transparency amid fears about the country’s ability to repay Chinese loans related to the multi-billion-dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Meanwhile the exiled leader of the opposition in the Maldives, Mohamed Nasheed, has said China’s actions in the Indian Ocean archipelago amounted to a “land grab” and “colonialism”, with 80 percent of its debt held by Beijing.

Sri Lanka has already paid a heavy price for being highly indebted to China. Last year, the island nation had to grant a 99-year lease on a strategic port to Beijing over its inability to repay loans for the $1.4-billion project.

“This debt acquired from China comes with huge business for Chinese companies, particularly construction companies that have turned the whole of Africa into a construction site..”

• Should Africa Be Wary Of Chinese Debt? (BBC)

African countries have shown a healthy appetite for Chinese loans but some experts now worry that the continent is gorging on debt, and could soon choke. The Entebbe-Kampala Expressway is still something of a tourist attraction for Ugandans, nearly three months after it opened. The 51km (31 mile), four-lane highway that connects the country’s capital to the Entebbe International Airport was built by a Chinese company using a $476m (£366m) loan from the China Exim Bank. It has cut what was a torturous two-hour journey through some of Africa’s worst traffic into a scenic 45-minute drive into the East Africa nation’s capital. Uganda has taken $3bn of Chinese loans as part of a wider trend that Kampala-based economist Ramathan Ggoobi calls its “unrivalled willingness to avail unconditional capital to Africa”.

“This debt acquired from China comes with huge business for Chinese companies, particularly construction companies that have turned the whole of Africa into a construction site for rails, roads, electricity dams, stadia, commercial buildings and so on,” the Makerere University Business School lecturer told the BBC. The Chinese loans come as many African countries are once again in danger of defaulting on their debts more than a decade after many had their outstanding borrowing written off. At least 40% of low-income countries in the region are either in debt distress or at high risk, the International Monetary Fund warned in April.

Chad, Eritrea, Mozambique, Congo Republic, South Sudan and Zimbabwe were considered to be in debt distress at the end of 2017 while Zambia and Ethiopia were downgraded to “high risk of debt distress”. “In 2017 alone, the newly signed value of Chinese contracted projects in Africa registered $76.5bn,” Standard Bank’s China Economist Jeremy Stevens wrote in a note. “However, despite a sizeable remaining infrastructure deficit on the continent, there is a concern that African countries’ debt-service ability will soon dissolve,” he says.

Until you can’t pay up. China knows many countries won’t be.

• China’s Xi Says No Strings Attached To Funds For Africa (R.)

Xi said at a business forum before the start of a triennial China Africa summit their friendship was time-honoured and that China’s investment in Africa came with no political strings attached. “China does not interfere in Africa’s internal affairs and does not impose its own will on Africa. What we value is the sharing of development experience and the support we can offer to Africa’s national rejuvenation and prosperity,” Xi said. “China’s cooperation with Africa is clearly targeted at the major bottlenecks to development. Resources for our cooperation are not to be spent on any vanity projects but in places where they count the most,” he said.

China has denied engaging in “debt trap” diplomacy but Xi is likely to use the gathering of African leaders to offer a new round of financing, following a pledge of $60 billion at the previous summit in South Africa three years ago. Chinese officials have vowed to be more cautious to ensure projects are sustainable. China defends continued lending to Africa on the grounds that the continent still needs debt-funded infrastructure development. Beijing has also fended off criticism it is only interested in resource extraction to feed its own booming economy, that the projects it funds have poor environmental safeguards, and that too many of the workers for them are flown in from China rather than using African labour.

The Wall Street Journal is the only remaining paper of record. This is an editorial.

• Anatomy Of A Fusion Smear (WSJ)

A partner at Foley & Lardner, Ms. Mitchell was astonished to find herself dragged into the Russia investigation on March 13 when Democrats on the House Intelligence Committee issued an interim report. They wrote that they still wanted to interview “key witnesses,” including Ms. Mitchell, who they claimed was “involved in or may have knowledge of third-party political outreach from the Kremlin to the Trump campaign, including persons linked to the National Rifle Association (NRA).” Two days later the McClatchy news service published a story with the headline “NRA lawyer expressed concerns about group’s Russia ties, investigators told.” The story cited two anonymous sources claiming Congress was investigating Ms. Mitchell’s worries that the NRA had been “channeling Russia funds into the 2016 elections to help Donald Trump.”

Ms. Mitchell says none of this is true. She hadn’t done legal work for the NRA in at least a decade, had zero contact with it in 2016, and had spoken to no one about its actions. She says she told this to McClatchy, which published the story anyway. Now we’re learning how this misinformation got around, and the evidence points to Glenn Simpson of Fusion GPS, the outfit that financed the infamous Steele dossier. New documents provided to Congress show that Mr. Simpson, a Fusion co-founder, was feeding information to Justice Department official Bruce Ohr. In an interview with House investigators this week, Mr. Ohr confirmed he had known Mr. Simpson for some time, and passed at least some of his information along to the FBI.

In handwritten notes dated Dec. 10, 2016 that the Department of Justice provided to Congress and were transcribed for us by a source, Mr. Ohr discusses allegations that Mr. Simpson made to him in a conversation. The notes read: “A Russian senator (& mobster) . . . [our ellipsis] may have been involved in funneling Russian money to the NRA to use in the campaign. An NRA lawyer named Cleta Mitchell found out about the money pipeline and was very upset, but the election was over.”

But they still claim damage won’t be long-lasting..

• No-Deal Brexit: Study Warns Of Severe Short-Term Impact On UK (G.)

The short-term impact of a no-deal Brexit on Britain’s economy would be “chaotic and severe”, jeopardising jobs and disrupting trade links, warn experts from the thinktank UK in a Changing Europe. The Brexit secretary, Dominic Raab, has said he believes 80% of the work on completing an exit deal with the EU27 is already done, as negotiations enter their final phase. But his cabinet colleague Liam Fox recently suggested a no-deal scenario – which would occur if negotiations broke down, or both sides agreed to disagree – was the most likely outcome. In a 30-page updated assessment of the impact of no deal, the thinktank said on Monday it would mean “the disappearance without replacement of many of the rules underpinning the UK’s economic and regulatory structure”.

Its analysis claimed that in the short term: • Food supplies could be temporarily disrupted – the beef trade could collapse, for example, as Britain is heavily reliant on EU imports, and would be forced to apply tariffs, in accordance with World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules. • European health insurance cards, which allow British tourists free healthcare in the EU, would be invalid from Brexit day. • There would almost certainly have to be a “hardening of the border” between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic, including some “physical manifestation”. • The status of legal contracts and commercial arrangements with EU companies would be unclear, as the UK would become a “third country” overnight. • Increased and uncertain processing times for goods at the border would be “nearly certain”, risking queues at Dover and forcing firms to rethink their supply chains.

In the longer term, UK in a Changing Europe’s experts say, the UK would have time to normalise its trading status, and agreements could be struck with the EU27 to tackle many other practical challenges. “It should not be assumed that the damage, while real, will necessarily be long-lasting,” the report says.

6 months to go. It’ll be a spectacle.

• Boris Johnson Launches Fresh Attack On May’s Brexit Plans (G.)

Boris Johnson has used his first newspaper column of the new parliamentary term to attack Theresa May’s Chequers plan, saying it means the UK enters Brexit negotiations with a “white flag fluttering”. The declaration amounts to a significant escalation the former foreign secretary’s guerrilla campaign against the prime minister and her Chequers plan a day before the Commons returns and at a time when party disquiet over the direction of the divorce talks is mounting. Johnson wrote that “the reality is that in this negotiation the EU has so far taken every important trick. The UK has agreed to hand over £40 billion of taxpayers’ money for two thirds of diddly squat”.

Johnson added that by adopting the Chequers plan, which will see the UK adopt a common rule book for food and goods, “we have gone into battle with the white flag fluttering over our leading tank”. It will be “impossible for the UK to be more competitive, to innovate, to deviate, to initiate, and we are ruling out major free trade deals,” he added. The intervention comes after a summer in which the former minister, who resigned over the Chequers deal, had avoided touching on Brexit in his Daily Telegraph column – although he did unleash a storm of complaint by describing fully veiled Muslim women as looking like letter boxes and bank robbers. It will be seen as preparing the ground for a leadership challenge to May just as the Brexit negotiations reach their critical phase in the autumn, which is to culminate in any final deal agreed by the UK government being put to parliament for a vote.

“..the average age of workers left in the department is 32..”

• Half The Staff Leaves UK’s Brexit Department (Ind.)

The number of officials who have left the Whitehall department trying to deliver Brexit is equivalent to more than half of its total staff, shock new figures reveal. Data seen by The Independent shows hundreds of civil servants went elsewhere as the department tried to get on its feet and cobble together a negotiating stance for the UK over the last two years. The exodus means the average age of workers left in the department is 32, though they are tasked with winning a complex deal that could change Britain for a generation.

The information obtained by the Liberal Democrats appears to corroborate previous reports about an extraordinarily high turnover at the Department for Exiting the European Union (Dexeu), with critics now claiming it points to “deep instability” at the heart of the government’s Brexit operation. According to the turnover data obtained under freedom of information, a staggering 357 staff have left the Dexeu in just two years. Yet the total number of those employed at the Whitehall department amounts to only 665, indicating a turnover rate of more than 50 per cent in that period.

Expect many more similar examples.

• Britain Loses Medicines Contracts As EU Body Anticipates Brexit (G.)

Britain’s leading role in evaluating new medicines for sale to patients across the EU has collapsed with no more work coming from Europe because of Brexit, it has emerged. The decision by the European Medicines Agency to cut Britain out of its contracts seven months ahead of Brexit is a devastating blow to British pharmaceutical companies already reeling from the loss of the EMA’s HQ in London and with it 900 jobs. All drugs sold in Europe have to go through a lengthy EMA authorisation process before use by health services, and the Medicines & Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) in Britain has built up a leading role in this work, with 20-30% of all assessments in the EU.

The MHRA won just two contracts this year and the EMA said that that work was now off limits. “We couldn’t even allocate the work now for new drugs because the expert has to be available throughout the evaluation period and sometimes that can take a year,” said a spokeswoman. In a devastating second blow, existing contracts with the MHRA are also being reallocated to bloc members. Martin McKee, the professor of European health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, who has given evidence to select committees about Brexit, said it was a disaster for the MHRA, which had about £14m a year from the EMA. The head of the Association of British Pharmaceutical Industry said it was akin to watching a “British success story” being broken up.

Draghi!!

• Emerging Markets Haunt Spanish Banks (DQ)

Almost exactly six years ago, the Spanish government requested a €100 billion bailout from the Troika (ECB, European Commission and IMF) to rescue its bankrupt savings banks, which were then merged with much larger commercial banks. Over €40 billion of the credit line was used; much of it is still unpaid. Yet Spain’s banking system could soon face a brand new crisis, this time not involving small or mid-sized savings banks but instead its alpha lenders, which are heavily exposed to emerging economies, from Argentina to Turkey and beyond. In the case of Turkey’s financial system, Spanish banks had total exposure of $82.3 billion in the first quarter of 2018, according to the Bank for International Settlements.

That’s more than the combined exposure of lenders from the next three most exposed economies, France, the USA, and the UK, which reached $75 billion in the same period. According to BIS statistics, Spanish banks’ exposure to Turkey’s economy almost quadrupled between 2015 and 2018, largely on the back of Spain’s second largest bank BBVA’s madcap purchase of roughly half of Turkey’s third largest lender, Turkiye Garanti Bankasi. Since buying its first chunk of the bank from the Turkish group Dogus and General Electric in 2010, BBVA has lost over 75% of its investment under the combined influence of Garanti’s plummeting shares and Turkey’s plunging currency.

But the biggest fear, as expressed by the ECB on August 10, is that Turkish borrowers might not be hedged against the lira’s weakness and begin to default en masse on foreign currency loans, which account for a staggering 40% of the Turkish banking sector’s assets. If that happens, the banks most exposed to Turkish debt will be hit pretty hard. And no bank is as exposed as BBVA, though the lender insists its investments are well-hedged and its Turkish business is siloed from the rest of the company. In Argentina, whose currency continues to collapse and whose economy is now spiraling down despite an IMF bailout, Spanish banks’ total combined investments amounted to $28 billion in the first quarter of 2018. That represented almost exactly half of the $58.9 billion that foreign banks are on the hook for in the country. The next most at-risk banking sector, the US, has some $10 billion invested.

Maybe you should define capitalism first.

• Capitalism Is Beyond Saving, and America Is Living Proof (TD)

Real wage growth has been nonexistent in the United States for more than 30 years. But as America enters the 10th year of the recovery—and the longest bull market in modern history—there are nervous murmurs, even among capitalism’s most reliable defenders, that some of its most basic mechanisms might be broken. The gains of the recovery have accrued absurdly, extravagantly to a tiny sliver of the world’s superrich. A small portion of that has trickled down to the professional classes—the lawyers and money managers, art buyers and decorators, consultants and “starchitects”—who work for them. For the declining middle and the growing bottom: nothing.

This is not how the economists told us it was supposed to work. Productivity is at record highs; profits are good; the unemployment rate is nearing a meager 4 percent. There are widely reported labor shortages in key industries. Recent tax cuts infused even more cash into corporate coffers. Individually and collectively, these factors are supposed to exert upward pressure on wages. It should be a workers’ market. But wages remain flat, and companies have used their latest bounty for stock buybacks, a transparent form of market manipulation that was illegal until the Reagan-era SEC began to chip away at the edifice of New Deal market reforms.

The power of labor continues to wane; the Supreme Court’s Janus v. AFSCME decision, while ostensibly limited to public sector unions, signaled in certain terms the willingness of the court’s conservative majority—five guys who have never held a real job—to effectively overturn the entire National Labor Relations Act if given the opportunity. The justices, who imagine working at Wendy’s is like getting hired as an associate at Hogan & Hartson after a couple of federal clerkships, reason that every employee can simply negotiate for the best possible deal with every employer.

Debt Rattle July 15 2018

Jul 152018

July 15, 2018 Posted by Raúl Ilargi Meijer at 9:31 am Finance Tagged with: Brexit, Dana Sabraw, Italy, Malta, May, migrants, Queen, separation, Spain, spying, Trump 3 Responses »

Ezra Stoller Parking garage, New Haven, Connecticut 1963

• Theresa May: Trump Told Me To Sue The EU (BBC)

• Trump Reveals The Queen’s Private Views On Brexit (G.)

• Theresa May Warns There Could Be ‘No Brexit At All’ (R.)

• The Chequers Brexit Compromise Offers The Worst Of Both Worlds (Mandelson)

• Prepare For No-Deal Brexit, German Business Groups Tell Members (R.)

• Immigrant Children, Parents Reunited Faster Under New Court Order (R.)

• Spain Saves Over 340 Migrants At Sea, One On Truck Tyre (AFP)

• 450 Migrants Stranded At Sea As Italy, Malta Dig Heels In (AFP)

• Mobile Phones Are ‘The Best Spying Device You Can Imagine’ (CNBC)

• The Wealthy Are Plotting To Leave Us Behind (Rushkoff)

Stranger things have happened.

• Theresa May: Trump Told Me To Sue The EU (BBC)

Donald Trump told Theresa May she should sue the EU rather than negotiate, she has told the BBC. The US president said on Friday at a joint press conference that he had given her a suggestion but she had found it too “brutal”. Asked by the BBC’s Andrew Marr what it was he had said, she replied: “He told me I should sue the EU – not go into negotiations.” She defended her blueprint for Brexit and urged her critics to back it. She said it would allow the UK to strike trade deals with other nations, end free movement of people and the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice.

A White Paper published on Thursday fleshed out details of the agreement reached by the cabinet on how post-Brexit trade will work. Before the paper was published, Brexit Secretary David Davis and Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson resigned, saying it would not deliver the Brexit people had voted for in the 2016 EU referendum. Talking about the president’s advice on how to handle the EU, Mrs May said: “Interestingly what the president also said at that press conference was ‘don’t walk away’. “Don’t walk away from those negotiations because then you’ll be stuck. So I want us to be able to sit down to negotiate the best deal for Britain.”

Not really.

• Trump Reveals The Queen’s Private Views On Brexit (G.)

Trump enthused about his reception at Windsor Castle on Friday, where he and Melania spent 45 minutes with the Queen. “It was a very easy talk,” he said. “You know, it’s hard to talk to somebody if you’re, sort of, if there’s not that something special. You know that better than anybody. Sometimes you’ll have a guest on where no matter what you do it’s not working, right? And then sometimes it’s magic. We had a great, a great feeling.” Morgan asked: “Did you get the feeling she liked you?” “Well I don’t want to speak for her,” Trump said, “but I can tell you I liked her. So usually that helps. But I liked her a lot.”

Asked if he had discussed Brexit, Trump said: “I did. She said it’s a very – and she’s right – it’s a very complex problem. I think nobody had any idea how complex that was going to be … Everyone thought it was going to be, ‘Oh it’s simple, we join or don’t join, or let’s see what happens’.” Trump would not say if the 92-year-old monarch told him what she really thinks of Britain’s attempt to leave the European Union. “Well,” he said, “I can’t talk, you know I’ve heard very strongly from a lot of people, you just don’t talk about that conversation with the Queen, right? You don’t wanna do that … Let me tell you what I can talk about … she is an incredible woman, she is so sharp, she is so beautiful, when I say beautiful – inside and out. That is a beautiful woman.”

That’s not a warning, it’s a wish.

• Theresa May Warns There Could Be ‘No Brexit At All’ (R.)

Prime Minister Theresa May has warned there may be “no Brexit at all” because of lawmakers’ attempts to undermine her plan to leave the European Union. “My message to the country this weekend is simple: we need to keep our eyes on the prize,” May wrote in the Mail on Sunday newspaper. “If we don’t, we risk ending up with no Brexit at all.” Earlier this week two senior ministers resigned in protest at May’s plans for trade with the EU after Britain leaves the bloc next March. Her blueprint was then criticised in a newspaper interview by U.S. President Donald Trump, a position he backtracked on during a meeting with May on Friday.

May also wrote in the Mail on Sunday article that Britain would take a tough stance in its next round of negotiations with the EU. “Some people have asked whether our Brexit deal is just a starting point from which we will regress,” she said. “Let me be clear. Our Brexit deal is not some long wish-list from which negotiators get to pick and choose. It is a complete plan with a set of outcomes that are non-negotiable.”

Damned if you do, doomed if you don’t.

• The Chequers Brexit Compromise Offers The Worst Of Both Worlds (Mandelson)

When I first looked at what had been agreed on Brexit at Chequers, I thought the plan would please nobody, but that the public might conclude that these proposals represent the best available. In reality, it’s a spatchcocked, half-in, half-out plan and the business response was frustration: it is better trade news for goods but a disappointing hard Brexit for services. Those who voted to “take back control” were more vitriolic: it is an attempt to remain close to Europe, full of concessions and compromises, and therefore a million miles from what they expected. In Brussels on the day of the white paper’s publication, I met officials on the British and EU sides, as well as the Irish, and found a desire to debate its content seriously.

For the last two years Theresa May has elevated sovereignty over trade and she seemed to be making a timely correction, as well as reaffirming her Irish border commitment. But as I returned home, my earlier doubts resurfaced. This plan neither allows us to receive the economic benefits of being fully inside the EU’s trade perimeter nor will it give us the freedom to market ourselves independently to the rest of the world. It is a halfway house that will leave us hanging by a thread, subject to the EU’s rules – whatever they are in future – with no say in their formulation. As a former EU trade commissioner, I know how complicated trade negotiations are and why they always end up with fewer gains on both sides than either expects.

So I am sympathetic to the government’s desire for something more ambitious and more customised to Britain’s needs. And I understand why the CBI has welcomed this ambition, particularly because it has chosen to prioritise international manufacturing businesses and their supply chains over services. However, it is services rather than manufacturing that make up the bulk of the UK economy and to relegate them makes no sense.

They’re as slow as the British themselves.

• Prepare For No-Deal Brexit, German Business Groups Tell Members (R.)

German business groups have urged their members to step up preparations for a hard Brexit that would see Britain crash out of the European Union next year without negotiating a deal. British Prime Minister Theresa May secured a cabinet agreement last week for “a business-friendly” proposal to leave the EU, aimed at spurring stalled Brexit talks. But the hard-won compromise has come under fire from within her governing Conservative Party and may yet fall flat with EU negotiators. “Even if the British government is moving now, companies must plan for the scenario in which there is no agreement,” Joachim Lang, managing director of the BDI, Germany’s biggest industry lobby, told the Welt am Sonntag newspaper.

Thilo Brodtmann, managing director of the VDMA engineering association, told the same paper: “It is urgent to prepare for Brexit and to expect the worst case scenario.” German industry is concerned about increased friction in trade with Britain after Brexit. Britain is the second-biggest export market for German car manufacturers. But Lang said some German businesses were only just starting to analyze what Brexit would mean for them, adding: “At least that has moved us forward from a few months ago.”

I like Dana Sabraw.

• Immigrant Children, Parents Reunited Faster Under New Court Order (R.)

When Yolany Padilla was released from immigration custody in Seattle last week, she assumed she would be quickly reunited with her 6-year-old son, who had been taken from her at the U.S.-Mexico border two months earlier. But caseworkers at Cayuga Centers in New York, where the boy had been placed, told her lawyer that the government’s vetting process for reunification would take time. Fingerprint collection and analysis alone could take 60 days, and there would also be background checks of all the adults with whom she and her son would stay. It would likely be weeks before her son could be returned to her. “I didn’t want to believe that could be true,” said Padilla, who comes from Honduras and is seeking asylum in the United States.

“It hurt so much to even think it could be 60 days.” That estimate changed abruptly on Thursday night after a federal judge’s order that the government streamline some vetting procedures for reunifying parents and children. Padilla’s lawyer, Leta Sanchez, received a call from Cayuga Centers’ general counsel saying the case had been referred for expedited processing. On Saturday, Padilla and her son, Jelsin, were reunited at the Seattle airport, where he was flown from New York. Padilla ran to her son as he entered the airport waiting area, dropping to her knees and embracing the small boy as he smiled broadly. “It’s been so long since I’ve seen him, imagine how I feel inside,” Padilla said, speaking through a translator at the airport after the reunion.

“It was like my heart was going to come out of my body,” Several immigration attorneys reached by Reuters said they had seen similar expedited reunions following a July 10 order by U.S. District Judge Dana Sabraw in a case brought against the government by the American Civil Liberties Union. The judge had previously ordered the government to reunify by July 26 as many as 2,500 immigrant children it had separated from their parents at the U.S.-Mexico border in recent months. The separations were part of President Donald Trump’s efforts to crack down on illegal immigration, though some of the separated families are also asylum seekers. That policy was abandoned in June in the wake of widespread protests.

On July 10, after examining how an initial wave of reunifications of young children had gone, Sabraw concluded that government vetting policies could be streamlined to speed the process. Reunifications should not be delayed by “lengthy background checks,” the judge wrote, noting that such checks would not have been performed if the parents and children had never been separated.

Spain is going to be the no. 1 destination.

• Spain Saves Over 340 Migrants At Sea, One On Truck Tyre (AFP)

Spanish rescuers saved more than 340 migrants in the Mediterranean on Saturday (July 14), including one person from north Africa who was attempting the crossing on board a truck tyre, they said. Salvamento Maritimo, Spain’s coastguards, said their ships had rescued 240 people spread out in 12 boats, 10 of them in the Strait of Gibraltar and two others in the Alboran Sea, and on the truck tyre. A spokesman added that the Guardia Civil police force had also saved more than 100 migrants in the Mediterranean. Spain is set to overtake Italy as the country of choice for migrants trying to reach Europe.

Some 16,902 people have arrived in Spain so far this year, the International Organization for Migration’s most recent figures show, and a further 294 died in the attempt. All in all, more than 1,400 migrants have lost their lives in the Mediterranean this year, they add. Last month, Spain also agreed to take in 630 migrants who arrived aboard three vessels, including the French NGO rescue ship Aquarius.

The EU is conspicuously silent on this.

• 450 Migrants Stranded At Sea As Italy, Malta Dig Heels In (AFP)

Another 450 migrants on board two military vessels were stranded at sea on Saturday as Italy and Malta locked horns over whose responsibility it was to offer them safe harbour. The boats, which are currently in Italian waters, had initially set sail from Libya in a single wooden vessel which was identified early Friday while passing through waters under Malta’s jurisdiction. But Italy’s far-right Interior Minister Matteo Salvini, who has authority over the country’s ports, on Friday refused to let them dock in his latest show of intransigence over migrants stranded at sea. And on Saturday, as those on board were transferred to two other vessels, he insisted the boats be instructed to “head south, to Libya or Malta”.

“We need an act of justice, of respect and of courage to fight against these human traffickers and generate a European intervention,” he said in talks with Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, his remarks carried by Italian news agencies. In an exchange of messages, emails and phonecalls on Friday, Rome had tried to push Valetta to take responsibility for those on board the wooden boat. But Malta said the ship was much closer to the Italian island of Lampedusa, insisting that those on board only wanted to reach Italy. On Saturday morning, they were transferred to two military vessels but where the vessels will dock remains unclear. Eight women and children were taken to Lampedusa for medical treatment. The new standoff kicked in just hours after 67 migrants were allowed to disembark from an Italian coast guard ship in Sicily late on Thursday.

A thousand ways to track you.

• Mobile Phones Are ‘The Best Spying Device You Can Imagine’ (CNBC)

Could someone be tracking you as you drive around your city or town? You may think turning off your smartphone’s location will prevent this, but researchers from Northeastern University in Boston found that isn’t always the case. “Not a lot of people are aware of this problem. Mainly because when we think about location, we associate it with the GPS on the phone,” said Sashank Narain a postdoctoral researcher at Northeastern. In a test, Narain and his team were able to track people driving through Boston, Waltham, Massachusetts, and London. Traditional locators, like GPS were turned off — so the researchers used other sensors. “The goal of our project is to make people aware that vulnerabilities such as these exist, and they should be taken care of,” Narain added.

Guevara Noubir, a professor at Northeastern University who was involved in the research and also directs Northeastern’s Cybersecurity & Information Assurance Graduate Program, told CNBC that “there’s a whole area, what’s called the side channel attacks, where you use side information to infer something that can have an impact on security,” and specifically, privacy. Using Android phones running Google’s operating system, the researchers did the tracking using sensors in smartphones that were not designed to track location. Those tools included an accelerometer, which tracks how fast a phone is moving, a magnetometer, which works like a digital compass, and a gyroscope, which tracks rotation. These sensors are responsible for things like changing the screen orientation from horizontal to vertical when the phone is moved.

“No matter their embedded biases, technologies are declared neutral.”

• The Wealthy Are Plotting To Leave Us Behind (Rushkoff)

[..] the more devastating impacts of pedal-to-the-metal digital capitalism fall on the environment and global poor. The manufacture of some of our computers and smartphones still uses networks of slave labor. These practices are so deeply entrenched that a company called Fairphone, founded from the ground up to make and market ethical phones, learned it was impossible. (The company’s founder now sadly refers to their products as “fairer” phones.) Meanwhile, the mining of rare earth metals and disposal of our highly digital technologies destroys human habitats, replacing them with toxic waste dumps, which are then picked over by peasant children and their families, who sell usable materials back to the manufacturers.

This “out of sight, out of mind” externalization of poverty and poison doesn’t go away just because we’ve covered our eyes with VR goggles and immersed ourselves in an alternate reality. If anything, the longer we ignore the social, economic, and environmental repercussions, the more of a problem they become. This, in turn, motivates even more withdrawal, more isolationism and apocalyptic fantasy — and more desperately concocted technologies and business plans. The cycle feeds itself. The more committed we are to this view of the world, the more we come to see human beings as the problem and technology as the solution.

The very essence of what it means to be human is treated less as a feature than bug. No matter their embedded biases, technologies are declared neutral. Any bad behaviors they induce in us are just a reflection of our own corrupted core. It’s as if some innate human savagery is to blame for our troubles. Just as the inefficiency of a local taxi market can be “solved” with an app that bankrupts human drivers, the vexing inconsistencies of the human psyche can be corrected with a digital or genetic upgrade.

Debt Rattle June 17 2018

Jun 172018

June 17, 2018 Posted by Raúl Ilargi Meijer at 9:05 am Finance Tagged with: France, Greece, Macedonia, Macron, Merkel, migrants, NHS, refugees, Sánchez, Seehofer, soybeans, Spain, summit, tariffs, Trump, Tsipras 4 Responses »

George Grosz Apocalyptic landscape 1936

• Is Merkel’s Reign Nearing A Frustrated End? (G.)

• Merkel Wants to Hold Urgent Summit With EU States on Migration Issues (Sp.)

• Italy Bars Two More Refugee Ships From Ports (G.)

• Spain Rescues More Than 900 Boat Migrants, Finds Four Bodies (R.)

• First Migrants From Aquarius Rescue Ship Arrive At Spanish Port (Sky)

• Spain Says France To Take In Aquarius Ship Migrants (AFP)

• Trump Keeps His Promises On Trade (AFP)

• China Tariffs On US Soybeans Could Cost Iowa Farmers Up To $624 Million (DMR)

• Mattis: Putin Is Trying To “Undermine America’s Moral Authority” (CJ)

• Consumers Stubbornly Cling to Cash (DQ)

• May To Unveil £20 Billion A Year Boost To NHS Spending (G.)

• Greece, FYROM To Sign Name Change Accord Sunday (K.)

This morning Merkel’s coalition partner, Horst Seehofer, said ‘I can not work with this woman anymore’. Looks like game could be over.

• Is Merkel’s Reign Nearing A Frustrated End? (G.)

For nearly 14 years as Germany’s chancellor, Angela Merkel has defined and personified Europe’s middle ground: pragmatic, consensual, mercantilist, petit-bourgeois, above all stable. It is little wonder the leader of Mitteleuropa’s major economic power has dominated the political centre for so long. But what if Merkel falls? Can the centre hold? These are increasingly urgent questions as the once unassailable “Mutti” struggles to hold together a fractious coalition. The immediate issue, which is likely to come to a head on Monday, is a furious row over EU immigration policy. But other problems are piling up, with unpredictable consequences for Europe’s future cohesion.

Merkel’s political obituary has been written many times, but now the final draft is nearing completion. She is under fire from the hard-right, anti-immigrant Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), which stormed into the Bundestag last autumn. She has problems with the failing, unpopular Social Democrats on her left, on whom she depends for support. More seriously, though, Merkel is being challenged from within by her interior minister, Horst Seehofer, former chairman of Bavaria’s rightwing CSU, which is allied to Merkel’s Christian Democrats. In sum, Seehofer is demanding Germany no longer admit migrants who have first entered the EU via other member states – which is nearly all of them.

In Merkel’s view, such a bar would be illegal and would wreck her efforts – ongoing since the 2015 Syrian refugee crisis, when Germany accepted 1 million migrants – to create a balanced, EU-wide policy of voluntary migrant quotas. She says Seehofer should wait for this month’s EU summit to come up with a joint plan. The problem with that approach is twofold. Seehofer’s CSU, which faces a critical electoral clash with the AfD in October, complains that the EU has been trying and failing to agree this for years. Another objection, as her critics see it, is that most Germans, recalling her 2015 “open door” policy, do not trust Merkel on this issue. Polls indicate 65% back tighter border controls.

Last week’s row between France and Italy, sparked by Rome’s decision to refuse entry to a ship, the Aquarius, carrying 629 migrants rescued off Libya, showed how improbable is the prospect of agreement at the Brussels summit. Italy’s new populist leadership, in common with an emerging axis of nationalist-minded governments in Austria, Hungary and Poland, believes it has a mandate to halt the migrant flow. Meanwhile, so-called “frontline states” such as Greece, Spain and Italy accuse “destination states” such as Germany, France and the UK of failing to accept a fair share of migrants. Divisions have been exacerbated by the failure, so far, of a key Merkel-backed initiative, the multibillion-euro EU Emergency Trust Fund for Africa, to reduce migration by addressing “root causes” in places such as Nigeria, Eritrea and Somalia.

And this is of course far too late. This summit should have been held 3 years ago. And it should be a UN summit, not some talks with Greece and Italy. Give Africa a voice. And Central America. Stop inviting xenophobia.

• Merkel Wants to Hold Urgent Summit With EU States on Migration Issues (Sp.)

German Chancellor Angela Merkel wants to hold an urgent summit dedicated to the migration crisis and to discuss this issue with a group of the EU member states, local media reported. The Bild newspaper reported Saturday citing own sources in the leadership of several EU countries that Merkel would like to discuss migration-related issues with leadership of Austria, Greece, and Italy. According to the media outlet, a final decision about the date of the summit has not been made yet, however it could take place later in the month. Earlier, Italy’s Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, called for reforms of EU asylum rules, proposing that the EU set up centers to process asylum claims in migrants’ countries of origin. France’s President Emanuel Macron also stressed the need to modify current migration rules and criticizing the European Union for not sharing the burden with Rome over the migrant crisis.

This comes at a bad time given Merkel’s problems.

• Italy Bars Two More Refugee Ships From Ports (G.)

Italy’s interior minister has sparked a new migration crisis in the Mediterranean by barring two rescue boats from bringing refugees to shore, a week after the Auarius was prevented from docking. “Two other ships with the flag of Netherlands, Lifeline and Seefuchs, have arrived off the coast of Libya, waiting for their load of human beings abandoned by the smugglers,” Matteo Salvini, the leader of the anti-immigrant party the League, wrote on his Facebook page. “These gentlemen know that Italy no longer wants to be complicit in the business of illegal immigration, and therefore will have to look for other ports [not Italian] where to go.”

Italy’s closure of its ports to the migrant rescue ship Aquarius, which was carrying 620 people, triggered warnings from aid agencies of a deadly summer at sea for people trying to cross the Mediterranean. Axel Steier, the co-founder of Mission Lifeline which operates the Lifeline ship, said his crew had rescued more than 100 migrants off Libya on Friday in an operation with a US warship, and transferred them to a Turkish merchant vessel. He said his ship was too small to make the journey from Libya to Italian ports and that he always transferred migrants to other ships, but insisted those craft should have the right to land in Italy.

“I am sure there is an obligation for Italy to take them because its closest safe harbour is Lampedusa. We hand over migrants to Europe because of the Geneva convention,” he said. Vessels chartered by an assortment of European NGOs have plied the waters off Libya for three years, rescuing migrants from leaking boats and transporting them to Sicily.

Greece, Italy and now Spain.

• Spain Rescues More Than 900 Boat Migrants, Finds Four Bodies (R.)

Spain’s coast guard rescued 933 migrants and found four dead bodies in the Mediterranean Friday and Saturday, as the country prepared for the arrival of a charity rescue ship that was denied a port by Italy and Malta. The number of people fleeing poverty and conflict by boat to Spain doubled last year and is likely to rise again in 2018, according to the EU border agency, potentially pushing migration up the national political agenda. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has already made migrant-friendly moves in his first two weeks in the job, offering to take in the rescue ship Aquarius with 629 people on board and pledging free healthcare to undocumented migrants. The coast guard said on Twitter it had rescued 507 people from 59 small dinghies in the Gibraltar strait, where it also found the four bodies.

Kudos to Sanchez. But what comes next?

• First Migrants From Aquarius Rescue Ship Arrive At Spanish Port (Sky)

The first boat of the Aquarius convoy carrying 630 people, who have become the focus of a pan-European disagreement over migration, has docked in Valencia. The Italian coast guard vessel Dattilo arrived in the Spanish port just before 7am local time on Sunday, and will be followed by the Aquarius and another Italian navy ship, the Orione. The migrants were rescued a week ago off the coast of Libya and have been at sea ever since after the Italian government refused to allow the vessel they were aboard to dock in Italy. Among those rescued are seven children aged under five, 32 children aged between five and 15 years, 61 young people aged from 15 to 17 and 80 women, seven of whom are pregnant.

They were rescued in several different operations last weekend after Italian coastguard vessels reported a group of small rubber dinghies off the coast of Libya. The Aquarius, a charity rescue vessel operated by French charities SOS Mediterranee and Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF), picked up more than a hundred people in a complex night-time rescue before being asked by the Italian authorities to take on board hundreds more people they had recovered. However the Italian interior minister, Matteo Salvini, then refused to allow the Aquarius to dock at Italian ports, fulfilling an election pledge to stop the arrival of migrants from Africa. Malta also refused to allow them to dock there, arguing that the Italians had assumed responsibility for the rescue operations.

More kudos for Sanchez. France is moving.

• Spain Says France To Take In Aquarius Ship Migrants (AFP)

Madrid said Saturday it had accepted an offer from France to take in migrants from the Aquarius rescue ship, currently en route to Spain with more than 600 people on board. “The French government will work together with the Spanish government to handle the arrival of the migrants” scheduled for Sunday, Spain’s deputy prime minister Carmen Calvo said in a statement. “France will accept migrants who express the wish to go there” once they have been processed in Valencia, the statement said. The vessel is at the heart of a major migration row between European Union member states.

Chartered by a French aid group, the vessel rescued 629 migrants including many children and pregnant women off Libya’s cost last weekend. Italy’s new populist government and Malta refused to let it dock in their ports, accusing each other of failing to meet their humanitarian and EU commitments. Spain eventually stepped in and agreed to receive the refugees. France – who had angered Rome by branding it irresponsible over the vessel rejection – offered Thursday to welcome Aquarius migrants who “meet the criteria for asylum”.

Still negotiating.

• Trump Keeps His Promises On Trade (AFP)

By inflicting tariffs on the steel and aluminum of his allies, and then on tens of billions of dollars in goods from China, US President Donald Trump has quickly moved to fulfill the tough campaign pledges he made on trade. During his first year in office, Trump and his top economic aides made repeated threats and warned that preliminary investigations were launched into whether certain imports were being unjustly subsidized. But no concrete steps were taken. That all changed in March, when the “America First” president went on the offensive. “What happened for a period of time is the president was constrained by different members” of his administration, said Edward Alden, a specialist on US economic competitiveness at the Council on Foreign Relations.

“But the president has become increasingly confident in his own judgment on these issues… He is willing to do radical things he promised during his campaign and for many years before that.” In its latest move, the White House on Friday announced stiff 25 percent tariffs on Chinese imports, sparking immediate retaliation from Beijing. The move, which Trump justified as payback for the theft of American intellectual property and technology, reignited a trade spat between the world’s two largest economies, spooking markets and worrying business leaders.

It came on top of the tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum that went into effect in late March – measures that prompted Beijing to slap punitive duties on 128 US goods, including pork, wine and certain pipes. Since June 1, steel and aluminum imports from the European Union, Canada and Mexico have been hit with tariffs of 25 percent and 10 percent, respectively. Trump has seemingly opted to go with his gut, sometimes over the protestations of his closest aides.

Since there is no glut of soybeans globally, this looks improbable.

• China Tariffs On US Soybeans Could Cost Iowa Farmers Up To $624 Million (DMR)

Perhaps Iowa farmers’ biggest fear is becoming a harsh reality: The escalating U.S.-China trade dispute erupted Friday, with each country vowing to levy 25 percent tariffs on $50 billion in goods. U.S. and Iowa agriculture is caught in the crossfire, with farmers selling $14 billion in soybeans to China last year, its top export market. Soybeans are among hundreds of U.S. products China has singled out for tariffs. The U.S. has an equally long list that includes taxing X-ray machines and other Chinese goods. Iowa farmers could lose up to $624 million, depending on how long the tariffs are in place and the speed producers can find new markets for their soybeans, said Chad Hart, an Iowa State University economist.

U.S. soybean prices have fallen about 12 percent since March, when the U.S.-China trade dispute began. “Any tariff or tax put in place will have a significant impact, not only to the U.S. soybean market but to Iowa’s, because we’re such a large producer,” Hart said Friday. Iowa is the nation’s second-largest soybean grower, producing 562 million bushels last year worth $5.2 billion. “It will slow down the market. Even with the tariffs in place, we will ship a lot of soybeans to China,” Hart said. “It just won’t be nearly the amount we did before. “It’s likely to still be our largest market even with these tariffs in place.”

Word.

• Mattis: Putin Is Trying To “Undermine America’s Moral Authority” (CJ)

At a graduation ceremony for the US Naval War College (barf), US Secretary of Defense James Mattis asserted that Russian President Vladimir Putin “aims to diminish the appeal of the western democratic model and attempts to undermine America’s moral authority,” and that “his actions are designed not to challenge our arms at this point but to undercut and compromise our belief in our ideals.” This would be the same James Mattis who’s been overseeing the war crimes committed by America’s armed forces during their illegal occupation of Syria.

This would be the same United States of America that was born of the genocide of indigenous tribes and the labor of African slaves, which slaughtered millions in Korea, Vietnam, Cambodia, Iraq, Libya and Syria for no legitimate reason, which is partnered with Ukrainian Nazis, jihadist factions in Syria and Iranian terror cultists, which supports 73 percent of the world’s dictators, which interferes constantly in the electoral processes of other countries as a matter of policy, which stages coups around the world, which has encircled the globe with military bases, whose FBI still targets black civil rights activists for persecution to this very day, which routinely enters into undeclared wars of aggression against noncompliant governments to advance plutocratic interests, which remains the only country ever to use nuclear weapons on human beings after doing so completely needlessly in Japan, and which is functionally a corporatist oligarchy with no meaningful “democratic model” in place at all.

A casual glance at facts and history makes it instantly clear that the United States has no “moral authority” of any kind whatsoever, and is arguably the hub of the most pernicious and dangerous force ever assembled in human history. But the establishment Russia narrative really is that cartoonishly ridiculous: you really do have to believe that the US government is 100 percent pure good and the Russian government is 100 percent pure evil to prevent the whole narrative from falling to pieces. If you accept the idea that the exchange is anything close to 50/50, with Russia giving back more or less what it’s getting and simply protecting its own interests from the interests of geopolitical rivals, it no longer makes any sense to view Putin as a leader who poses a unique threat to the world. If you accept the idea that the west is actually being far more aggressive and antagonistic toward Russia than Russia is being toward the west, it gets even more laughable.

“Currency in Circulation vs. GDP is increasing on all continents..”

• Consumers Stubbornly Cling to Cash (DQ)

The last month has been an unhappy time for daydreamers of a cashless nirvana. Following weeks of disruptive tech failures, payment outages, and escalating cyber fraud scams, much of it taking place in Britain, consumers have been reminded of one of the great benefits of physical cash: it is accepted just about everywhere and does not suddenly fail on you. The findings of a new study by UK-based online payments company Paysafe, partly owned by US private equity giant Blackstone, confirm that consumers on both sides of the Atlantic continue to cling to physical lucre. For its Lost in Transaction report, Paysafe surveyed over 5,000 consumers in the UK, Canada, the US, Germany, and Austria on their payment habits.

One of its main findings is that 87% of consumers used cash to make purchases in the last month, while 83% visited ATMs, and 41% are not interested in even hearing about cash alternatives. “Despite the apparent benefits of low-friction payment technologies, these findings suggest many consumers aren’t ready to lose visibility of the payment process,” says Paysafe Group Chief Marketing Officer Oscar Nieboer. “It’s clear that the benefits are not unilaterally agreed upon, with cultural and infrastructure trends at play, and it may be some time before adoption is widespread.” Although consumers continue to cling to cash, they appear to be carrying less of it: 49% overall in the survey and 55% of U.S. respondents said they carry less cash now than they did a year ago.

The average American consumer carries $42 today — that’s $8 less than in 2017. In the UK the average amount carried in 2017 was £33; that has now fallen to £21. But that does not mean that the amount of cash in circulation is dwindling. On the contrary, according to this year’s G4S cash report, the world average ratio of currency vs GDP continues to rise, reaching 9.6% in 2018. “Currency in Circulation vs. GDP is increasing on all continents, indicating a consistent, growing demand for cash across the world,” says the report. South America has by far the highest cash dependency relative to its GDP, with an average ratio of over 16%.

First you kill it, then it needs to be revived. How much of the £20 billion goes to repairing the damage already done?

• May To Unveil £20 Billion A Year Boost To NHS Spending (G.)

Taxpayers are to be asked to help fund a £20bn a year injection of extra cash into the National Health Service by 2023-24 that will pay for thousands more doctors and nurses, while cutting cancer deaths and improving mental health services, Theresa May will say today. The announcement, before the NHS’s 70th birthday next month, will represent the biggest funding boost since Gordon Brown imposed a one percentage point rise in National Insurance to pay for more NHS spending in his 2002 budget, in the face of Tory claims that Labour was slapping a “tax on ordinary families”.

Government sources said the increases, which would be paid for in part by a “Brexit dividend”, would amount to around £600m a week extra for the NHS in cash terms within six years. Health and social care secretary Jeremy Hunt said last night that the government wanted to “show the world what a cutting-edge 21st-century healthcare system can look like”. He added: “This long-term plan and historic funding boost is a fitting birthday present for our most loved institution. Like no other organisation could ever hope to be, the NHS is there for every family at the best and worst of times, from the wonder of birth to the devastation of death, living and breathing those very British values of decency, fairness and compassion.

He said the extra cash “recognises the superhuman efforts made by staff over the last few years to maintain services in the face of rapidly growing demand. But it also presents a big opportunity for the NHS to write an entirely new chapter in its history”. Details of how the public will be required to pay through tax rises, and the proportion of the funding increases they will pay for, will not be spelled out until the budget, because of ongoing arguments involving the chancellor Philip Hammond, Hunt, and No 10.

70% of Greeks is against the deal, protests are everywhere. But he pushed it through. In Foreign Policy, someone suggested giving him a Nobal Peace Prize for it. But, but, democracy…

• Greece, FYROM To Sign Name Change Accord Sunday (K.)

Greece and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM) are set to sign a historic accord to modify the latter’s name after Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras survived a no-confidence vote in Parliament Saturday. The accord is to be signed in the Prespes region, a lake district which borders Greece, FYROM and Albania, by the two countries’ foreign ministers Sunday. Tsipras and his FYROM counterpart Zoran Zaev will both attend the ceremony, along with UN mediator Matthew Nimetz and other European officials – including the European Union’s foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini and European Neighborhood Policy and Enlargement Negotiations Commissioner Johannes Hahn.

Following the ceremony, members of the two delegations will hold a working lunch in the town of Otesevo, in FYROM. Security at the event is expected to be ultra-tight. A protest against the deal will be held in the nearby village of Pisoderi. On Saturday, after more than two days of vehement debate in Parliament, Greece’s SYRIZA-led government survived a no-confidence vote brought against it by the main opposition New Democracy party, but with one less MP. The motion garnered 127 votes with 153 against. The junior coalition partner Independent Greeks (ANEL) backed the government despite its opposition to the name deal with FYROM that Tsipras announced last week, bar one MP, Dimitris Kammenos, who backed the motion. He was subsequently expelled from the party, reducing the government’s majority to 153.

This is Italy. This is not Sparta.

Jun 012018

June 1, 2018 Posted by Raúl Ilargi Meijer at 1:01 pm Finance Tagged with: austerity, Erdogan, EU, IOUs, Israel, Italy, M5S, mini-Bots, pensions, risk, Spain, Trump, UBI, Varoufakis 1 Response »

Nikolay Dubovsky Became Silent 1890

“European Stocks Surge Celebrating New Spanish, Italian Governments”, says a Zero Hedge headline. “Markets Breathe Easier As Italy Government Sworn In”, proclaims Reuters. And I’m thinking: these markets are crazy, and none of this will last more than a few days. Or hours. The new Italian government is not the end of a problem, it’s the beginning of many of them.

And Italy is far from the only problem. The new Spanish government will be headed by Socialist leader Pedro Sanchez, who manoeuvred well to oust sitting PM Rajoy, but he also recently saw the worst election result in his party’s history. Not exactly solid ground. Moreover, he needed the support of Catalan factions, and will have to reverse much of Rajoy’s actions on the Catalunya issue, including probably the release from prison of those responsible for the independence referendum.

Nor is Spain exactly economically sound. Still, it’s not in as bad a shape as Turkey and Argentina. A JPMorgan graph published at Zero Hedge says a lot, along with the commentary on it:

The chart below, courtesy of Cembalest, shows each country’s current account (x-axis), the recent change in its external borrowing (y-axis) and the return on a blended portfolio of its equity and fixed income markets (the larger the red bubble, the worse the returns have been). This outcome looks sensible given weaker Argentine and Turkish fundamentals. And while Cembalest admits that the rising dollar and rising US rates will be a challenge for the broader EM space, most will probably not face balance of payments crises similar to what is taking place in Turkey and Argentina, of which the latter is already getting an IMF bailout and the former, well… it’s only a matter of time.

And now Erdogan has apparently upped the ante once more yesterday. Last week he called on the Turkish population to change their dollars and euros into lira’s, last night he ‘suggested’ they bring in their money from abroad (to profit from ‘beneficial tax rules’). Such things have, by and large, one effect only: the opposite of what he intends. He just makes his people more nervous than they already were.

It’s June 1, and the Turkish elections are June 24. Will Erdogan be able to keep things quiet enough in the markets? It’s doubtful. He has reportedly already claimed that the US and Israel are waging an economic war on Turkey. And for once he may be right. A few weeks ago Erdogan called on all member states of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation to boycott all Israeli products (and presumably America products too).

On April 30, the IMF warned that the Turkish economy is showing “clear signs of overheating”. On May 1, Standard & Poor’s downgraded the Turkish economy to double-B-minus. Economic war? Feels a bit more like a political war. Erdogan has three weeks left to win that election. Don’t expect things to quieten down before then. But as the graph above shows, Turkey itself is the problem here first and foremost.

Expect Erdogan to say interest rates -usury- are immoral in Muslim countries. Expect much more pressure from the west on him. Erdogan has also been busy establishing Turkish ‘enclaves’ in Syria’s Afrin territory (where he chased out the original population) and in the Turkish-occupied northern part of Cyprus (where he added 100s of 1000s of Turks).

No, the West wouldn’t mourn if the man were defeated in the vote. They can add a lot more pressure in three weeks, and they will. Will it suffice? Hard to tell.

Back to Italy. Where the optimism comes from, I can’t fathom. The M5S-Lega coalition has never made a secret of its program and/or intentions. Just because pronounced eurosceptic Paolo Savona was shifted from Finance to EU minister doesn’t a summer make. New Finance minster Tria may be less outspoken than Savona, but he’s no europhile, and together the two men can be a woeful pain in Europe’s behind. This is Italy. This is not Sparta.

The essence of the M5S-Lega program is painfully simple: they reject austerity as the basics of economic policy. And austerity is all that Europe’s policy has been based on for the past decade at least. That spells collision course. And there is zero indication that the new coalition is willing to give an inch on this. Tsipras may have in Greece, but Italy’s sheer size means it has a lot more clout.

To begin with, the program wants to do away with the Eurozone’s 3% deficit rule. It speaks of a 15-20% flat tax, and a €780 basic income. These two measures would cost between €109 billion and €126 billion, or 6 to 7% of Italian GDP. As Italy’s public debt stand at €2.4 trillion, 132% of GDP.

“The government’s actions will target a programme of public debt reduction not through revenue based on taxes and austerity, policies that have not achieved their goal, but rather through increased GDP by the revival of internal demand,” the program says. Yes, that is the opposite of austerity.

The parties want a roll-back of previously announced pension measures to a situation where the sum of a person’s age and years of social security contributions reach 100. If someone has worked, and contributed to social security for 40 years, they will be able to retire at 60, not at 67 as the present plans demand.

In an additional plan that will make them very popular at home amongst the corrupt political class, the parties want to slash the number of parliamentarians to 400 MPs (from 630) and 200 senators (from 318). They would be banned from changing political parties during the legislature.

And then there are the mini-Bots, a parallel currency system very reminiscent of what Yanis Varoufakis proposed for Greece. Basically, they would allow the government to pay some of its domestic obligations (suppliers etc.) in the form of IOUs, which could then in turn be used to pay taxes and -other- government services. They would leave what is domestic, domestic.

There’s a lot of talk about this being a first step towards leaving the euro, but why should that be so? The main ‘threat’ lies in the potential independence from Brussels it may provide a country with. But it’s a closed system: you can’t pay with mini-Bots for trade or other international obligations.

Italy, like an increasing number of Eurozone nations, is looking for a way to get its head out of the Brussels/Berlin noose that’s threatening to suffocate it. If the EU doesn’t react to this, and soon, and in a positive manner it will blow itself up. Yes, if Italy started to let its debt balloon, the European Commission could reprimand it and issue fines. But the Commission wouldn’t dare do that. This is Italy. This is not Sparta.

Anyway, risk off, as the markets suggest(ed) this morning? Surely you’re joking. And we haven’t even mentioned Trump’s trade wars yet. Risk is ballooning.

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