Jun 012020

Christo & Jeanne Claude The Gates, Central Park NYC 2005 (Christo died yesterday at 84)



New Coronavirus Losing Potency, Top Italian Doctor Says (R.)
Russia To Roll Out ‘Game Changer’ COVID19 Drug Next Week (R.)
UK Has One Of Highest COVID19-Related Excess Deaths Levels In Europe (G.)
Health Officials Make Last-Minute Plea To Stop Lockdown Easing In England (G.)
It’s The Virus, Stupid! (AHEB)
Australia’s Stalled Migrant Boom Derails Golden Economic Run (R.)
Asia Stocks Hit 3-Month Peaks, Resilient To US Rioting (R.)
Asia’s Factory Pain Worsens As China’s Recovery Fails To Lift Demand (R.)
The Stunning Chart That Blows Up All Of Modern Central Banking (ZH)
FBI’s Top Lawyer Resigns As Agency Faces Pressure From Trump (R.)



The riots have completely taken over the -US- news cycle from COVID19, to such an extent that I don’t really know what to add to it. Only perhaps to say there is an enormous amount of brutal videos circling around, more than on any topic ever before, and there’s no way that doesn’t influence people on all sides.








Counted from Saturday, since there was no Debt Rattle yesterday:

Cases 6,288,176 (+ 233,399 from Saturday’s 6,054,777)

Deaths 374,327(+ 7,039 from Saturday’s 367,288)




Note: I dropped the SCMP graph, it doesn’t appear very useful anymore.

From Worldometer yesterday evening -before their day’s close-:



From Worldometer:



From COVID19Info.live:





Would be good news, but this sounds a little goal-seeked.

New Coronavirus Losing Potency, Top Italian Doctor Says (R.)

The new coronavirus is losing its potency and has become much less lethal, a senior Italian doctor said on Sunday. “In reality, the virus clinically no longer exists in Italy,” said Alberto Zangrillo, the head of the San Raffaele Hospital in Milan in the northern region of Lombardy, which has borne the brunt of Italy’s coronavirus contagion. “The swabs that were performed over the last 10 days showed a viral load in quantitative terms that was absolutely infinitesimal compared to the ones carried out a month or two months ago,” he told RAI television. Italy has the third highest death toll in the world from COVID-19, with 33,415 people dying since the outbreak came to light on Feb. 21. It has the sixth highest global tally of cases at 233,019.

However new infections and fatalities have fallen steadily in May and the country is unwinding some of the most rigid lockdown restrictions introduced anywhere on the continent. Zangrillo said some experts were too alarmist about the prospect of a second wave of infections and politicians needed to take into account the new reality. “We’ve got to get back to being a normal country,” he said. “Someone has to take responsibility for terrorizing the country.” The government urged caution, saying it was far too soon to claim victory. “Pending scientific evidence to support the thesis that the virus has disappeared … I would invite those who say they are sure of it not to confuse Italians,” Sandra Zampa, an undersecretary at the health ministry, said in a statement.

“We should instead invite Italians to maintain the maximum caution, maintain physical distancing, avoid large groups, to frequently wash their hands and to wear masks.” A second doctor from northern Italy told the national ANSA news agency that he was also seeing the coronavirus weaken. “The strength the virus had two months ago is not the same strength it has today,” said Matteo Bassetti, head of the infectious diseases clinic at the San Martino hospital in the city of Genoa. “It is clear that today the COVID-19 disease is different.”

Read more …

A bit better than remdesivir (which is not hard), and worse than HCQ?! What game is it that will be changed?

Russia To Roll Out ‘Game Changer’ COVID19 Drug Next Week (R.)

Russia will start administering its first approved antiviral drug to treat coronavirus patients next week, its state financial backer told Reuters, a move it described as “a game changer” that should speed a return to normal economic life. Russian hospitals can begin giving the drug to patients from June 11, with enough to treat around 60,000 people per month, the head of Russia’s RDIF sovereign wealth fund told Reuters in an interview. There is currently no approved vaccine for the highly contagious and sometimes fatal illness and no consensus within the global scientific community about the efficacy of medication such as the Russian modified antiviral drug.

Registered under the name Avifavir, it is the first potential coronavirus treatment to be approved by Russia’s health ministry, however. It appeared on a government list of approved drugs on Saturday after clinical trials. RDIF head Kirill Dmitriev said clinical trials involved 330 people and showed that the drug successfully treated the virus in most cases within four days. Trials were due to be concluded in around a week, he said, and more would be conducted. The health ministry had given its approval for the drug’s use under a special accelerated process and manufacturing had begun in March, he added. “We believe this is a game changer. It will reduce strain on the healthcare system, we’ll have fewer people getting into a critical condition, and for 90% of people it eliminates the virus within 10 days,” he said.

“We believe that the drug is key to resuming full economic activity in Russia. People need to follow social distancing rules, and of course we need to have a vaccine, but it’s a combination of those three levers.” With 405,843 cases, Russia has the third highest number of infections in the world after Brazil and the United States, though with 4,693 official deaths, a much lower fatality rate, something that has been the focus of debate. Dmitriev said the new drug, which comes in tablet form, would allow people to spend less time in hospital and reduce the time they are contagious, saying the drug had few side-effects but was not suitable for pregnant women. It was particularly effective, he said, for patients suffering from mild or mid-level symptoms.

[..] Avifavir, known generically as favipiravir, was first developed in the late 1990s by a Japanese company later bought by Fujifilm as it moved into healthcare. The drug works by short-circuiting the reproduction mechanism of certain RNA viruses such as influenza. Russian specialists modified the generic drug to enhance its efficacy for treating COVID-19 [..]

Read more …

Excess deaths may be the best, if not only, way to get an accurate fatality number for COVID19.

UK Has One Of Highest COVID19-Related Excess Deaths Levels In Europe (G.)

Britain’s excess death toll at the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic was the highest among 11 countries analysed by the Guardian. The UK had the biggest spike among countries including Sweden, France, Germany and Spain. At its peak the UK death toll was more than double that of an average week, at 109%, compared with Spain’s peak in week 14 where the death toll was double the average at 100%. By week 20 of 2020 the UK death toll – inclusive of both Covid-related and non-Covid deaths – was 21% higher than the average of recent years meaning, for every five deaths that occur in the UK in a normal year, six people have died this year to date.

Excess deaths are those above what we might expect to see in normal circumstances. The figure is the difference in the number of people who have died in a given week compared with the average number of deaths that occurred in the same period in the previous five years. Italy and the Netherlands also have excess deaths of 10% or more so far this year according to the latest data, although the data for those countries is not as up to date as that for the UK. Patterns in the data show countries that locked down earlier tended to have fewer deaths. Austria, which imposed strict containment measures on 16 March, when there was just one death attributed to Covid-19 in the country, recorded a peak in excess deaths of 14%.

By contrast, the Netherlands waited until its excess deaths were already 17% higher than usual before locking down, and at its peak the death toll was 74% above average. The data also shows that in Sweden, which has adopted a different approach with no lockdown in place, excess deaths peaked at 46%. The figures come from mortality statistics gathered by the Guardian. Not all of the deaths are directly attributable to Covid-19 but the figures indicate how many people have died directly and indirectly as a result of the virus in different countries.

Read more …

That cat’s out of the bag. Too late.

Health Officials Make Last-Minute Plea To Stop Lockdown Easing In England (G.)

Senior public health officials have made a last-minute plea for ministers to scrap Monday’s easing of the coronavirus lockdown in England, warning the country is unprepared to deal with any surge in infection and that public resolve to take steps to limit transmisson has been eroded. The Association of Directors of Public Health (ADPH) said new rules, including allowing groups of up to six people to meet outdoors and in private gardens, were “not supported by the science” and that pictures of crowded beaches and beauty spots over the weekend showed “the public is not keeping to social distancing as it was”.

On Saturday and Sunday, parks and seafronts were packed as people anticipated the lifting of restrictions on what has been dubbed “happy Monday”. Car showrooms and outdoor markets will also be reopened, millions of children will return to primary schools and the most vulnerable “shielded” people will be allowed out for the first time since lockdown began in March, all as long as physical distancing is maintained. But Jeanelle de Gruchy, president of the ADPH, said her colleagues across England were “increasingly concerned that the government is misjudging the balance of risk between more social interaction and the risk of a resurgence of the virus, and is easing too many restrictions too quickly”.

They have called on ministers to postpone the easing of restrictions until more is known about the infection rate, the test-and-trace system is better established and public resolve to maintain physical distancing and hygiene can be reinforced. “We have not spoken out in this way before,” De Gruchy said, “but we are concerned that if there is a spike it will be in our communities. We need to be confident we can get on top of it, and we are not confident yet.”

Read more …

Awful headline for a reasonable piece.

It’s The Virus, Stupid! (AHEB)

Many economists expressed disbelief after glancing at recent economic statistics. Since the arrival of the virus and the subsequent lockdowns we have observed a never-before-seen decline in production and consumption. In the UK alone, millions of jobs are at risk immediately. The IMF estimated that, for the UK, the expected economic growth this year will turn into a contraction of 6.5%. It was only the day after the presentation of this forecast when Kristalina Georgieva, the director of the IMF, said that the predictions had been overly positive. Globally, it is predicted that many hundreds of millions of people will fall back below the poverty line. The bad news just doesn’t seem to stop. And what for? To keep a virus in check.

A virus that will cause more death than a serious flu, but that does much less damage to health compared to other diseases like cancer or cardiovascular disease. Assuming an infection mortality risk of 1%, group immunity at 70% and 10 years of life lost per death, we arrive at an average loss of life expectancy of one month for the average UK person. This is in sharp contrast to, for example, the 2 to 3 years with which cancer shortens the life of the average UK person. Some economists read these numbers and conclude that the lockdown has to end immediately. That is understandable at first. The costs per year of life saved are higher than we are willing to spend on regular care. The difference is at least a factor 2, and probably much more. If we weren’t prepared to make such sacrifices for an extra year of life before, why now?

The comparison is flawed. While we can lift the lockdown, we cannot return to normality. If we assume 25% of the UK population is at risk, then 17 million people belong to one of the risk groups. For them, the virus is usually not fatal, but not safe either. Many of these people are likely to adopt a risk-averse position. The risks for the rest of the population are limited. However, they too will likely be cautious, as almost all of them are in direct contact with people from the risk groups. This raises the question to what extent the economic damage is caused by the lockdown or by the virus itself. The way to find out is to lift the lockdown in some regions and continue in others. Obviously, such an experiment will not be allowed because of the ethical aspects.

Read more …

We import oil and rich people.

Australia’s Stalled Migrant Boom Derails Golden Economic Run (R.)

Australia’s three decades of uninterrupted prosperity are coming to an abrupt end as the global coronavirus pandemic crashes one of its most lucrative sources of income – immigration. The country has been successful in managing the outbreak and reopening its A$2 trillion ($1.33 trillion) economy, thanks in part to an early closure of its borders. But the policy has led to a halt in mass immigration – a key source of consumer demand, labour and growth – in an economy which is facing its first recession since the early 1990s. Net immigration, including international students and those on skilled worker visas, is expected to fall 85% in the fiscal year to June 2021, curbing demand for everything from cars and property to education and wedding rings.

Gurmeet Tuli, who owns a jewellery store in the Sydney suburb of Parramatta, said his business is already hurting in a neighbourhood which is home to tens of thousands of migrants. “My main clientele is young people who come here to study, they find work here and settle down, fall in love and want to get married,” Tuli said. “I have not sold a single diamond ring in the past two months,” he added, noting business is down about 40% so far this year. So critical is migration to Australia that analysts reckon the economy would have slipped into a recession last year without new arrivals to boost population growth.

Read more …

That’s not terribly interesting…

Asia Stocks Hit 3-Month Peaks, Resilient To US Rioting (R.)

Asian shares pushed to three-month highs on Monday as progress on opening up economies helped offset jitters over riots in U.S. cities and unease over Washington’s power struggle with Beijing. There was also relief that while President Donald Trump began the process of ending special U.S. treatment for Hong Kong to punish China, he left their trade deal intact. “With specific and verifiable measures against China appearing to be weak, markets may draw hollow consolation that the U.S. is treading carefully,” said analysts at Mizuho in a note.

After a cautious start Asian markets were led higher by China on signs parts of the domestic economy were picking up. Hong Kong .HSI managed to rally 3.6%, while Chinese blue chips put on 2.4%. An official business survey from China showed its factory activity grew at a slower pace in May but momentum in the services and construction sectors quickened. A private survey showed a return to growth in May, though exports remained depressed. That helped lift MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan 2.1% to its highest since early March. Japan’s Nikkei added 0.7% to also reach a three-month peak.

[..] The resilience was notable given major U.S. cities were cleaning up streets strewn with broken glass and burned out cars as curfews failed to stop confrontations between activists and law enforcement. The turmoil was a fresh setback for the economy which was only just emerging from a downturn akin to the Great Depression. Following poor data on spending and trade out on Friday, the Atlanta Federal Reserve estimated economic output could drop a staggering 51% annualised in the second quarter. The May jobs report due out on Friday is forecast to show the unemployment rate surged to 19.8%, smashing April’s record 14.7%. Payrolls are expected to drop by 7.4 million, on top of the 20.5 million jobs lost the previous month.

Read more …

… this is far more interesting. Why are stocks “resilient” and hitting peaks as economies plunge?

Asia’s Factory Pain Worsens As China’s Recovery Fails To Lift Demand (R.)

Asia’s factory pain deepened in May as the slump in global trade caused by the coronavirus pandemic worsened, with export powerhouses Japan and South Korea suffering the sharpest declines in business activity in more than a decade. A series of manufacturing surveys released on Monday suggest any rebound in businesses will be some time off, even though China’s factory activity unexpectedly returned to growth in May. China’s Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) hit 50.7 last month, marking the highest reading since January as easing of lockdowns allowed companies to get back to work and clear outstanding orders.

But with many of China’s trading partners still restricted, its new export orders remained in contraction, the private business survey showed on Monday. China’s official PMI survey on Sunday showed the recovery in the world’s second-largest economy intact but fragile. Japan’s factory activity shrank at the fastest pace since 2009 in May, a separate private sector survey showed while South Korea also saw manufacturing slump at the sharpest pace in more than a decade. [..] Taiwan’s manufacturing activity also fell in May. Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines saw PMIs rebound from April, though the indices all remained below the 50-mark threshold that separates contraction from expansion. Official data on Monday showed South Korea extending its exports plunge for a third straight month.

Read more …

Japan’s policy for years now hs been to force people to spend. The more -and longer- you do that, the more afraid they get and the less they spend.

Also, as mentioned 1000 times, talking about inflation means zilch unless velocity of money is included. The Deutsche bank graph down below gives that point a lot more perspective.

The Stunning Chart That Blows Up All Of Modern Central Banking (ZH)

[..] amusingly it was all the way back in 2015 that we predicted – correctly in retrospect – just what the monetary endgame is: “fear not: when even “moar” QE and NIRP do not work, and the economists of the ECB admit the “monetary twilight zone” was a disaster, there is one last “tool” they can and will use – helicopters. Because when it comes to printing money, whether in digital reserve format, or physical paper format, there is literally no limit how much can and will be created to achieve what is the endgame of the current monetary dead end: the total destruction of fiat as a store of wealth in order to preserve the global equity tranche while wiping away a few hundred trillion in debt.”

Thanks to covid-19, we have now moved beyond merely the “twilight” and are now in the “helicopter” zone. But what about the relationship between rates and savings, and by extension inflation? After all that is the topic of this post. Well, we can now confirm that our intuition from 2015 that negative rates are not only not inflationary but outright deflationary, and encourage consumers to save even more, was correct all along. Below we post a chart from the latest Research Investment Committee report by BofA titled “Stagnation, stagflation or elevation”, which with just one image blows up everything that is flawed with monetary policy. It shows that while lower rates indeed stimulate spending and lead to lower savings, this effect peaks at around 4% and then goes negative. In fact, the lower yields – and rates – drop below 4% – not to mention to 0% or below – the lower the propensity to spend and the higher the savings rate!

There is another reason why this chart of such epic importance: it confirms what so many have known but were afraid to voice as it ran against decades of flawed economic theory: it demonstrates without a shadow of doubt, that hyper-easy monetary policy is not inflationary but is deflationary. Which is catastrophic for central banks, who publicly state that the only reason they are pursuing ultra easy monetary policy which includes QE and negative rates, is not to goose the market higher (even though by now we all know that’s the real reason) but to stimulate inflation. This is how Bank of America summarizes this stunning observation: As low growth & inflation make low-risk-asset income scarce (e.g. from government bonds), households are forced to reduce consumption and increase savings in order to meet retirement goals. Forced saving further depresses demand in a vicious cycle.

This means that the lower (and more negative) central banks push rates, the lower (not higher) the spending, the higher (not lower) the savings rate, the lower the inflation, the higher the disinflation (or outright deflation), which in turn forces central banks to cut rates even more, to add QE, yield curve control, buy junk bonds, buy ETFs, or pursue any of a host of other monetary policies that are even more devastating to consumer psychology, forcing even more savings, resulting in even more disinflation, causing even more intervention by central banks in what is without doubt the most diabolical feedback loop of modern monetary policy and economics. Said otherwise, monetary easing is deflationary. Let that sink in.

Read more …

Not entirely sure what this is. The DOJ supposedly tells the FBI’s top lawyer to leave. And there’s no protest, he just does.

Impossible to see this as something wholly separate from the entire developing issue, for which Susan Rice is an appropriate symbol.

FBI’s Top Lawyer Resigns As Agency Faces Pressure From Trump (R.)

The FBI said on Saturday that its top lawyer, Dana Boente, had announced his resignation as the agency faces scrutiny over its investigations of former staffers and supporters of President Donald Trump. As a senior Justice Department official, Boente was involved in the investigation of Trump’s former national security adviser Michael Flynn, who pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI. The Justice Department has since asked a judge to drop those charges, arguing that prosecutors should not have brought them in the first place. Trump has repeatedly criticized the FBI for investigating Flynn and other allies.

NBC News, citing two sources, said Boente was asked to resign. Boente held several senior roles at the Justice Department and the FBI over the course of a 38-year career. He briefly served as acting Attorney General in 2017 after Trump fired Sally Yates, who held the job during the first weeks of his presidency. “Few people have served so well in so many critical, high-level roles at the Department,” FBI Director Christopher Wray said in a prepared statement.

Read more …



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Home Forums Debt Rattle June 1 2020

Viewing 29 posts - 1 through 29 (of 29 total)
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  • #59415

    Christo & Jeanne Claude The Gates, Central Park NYC 2005 (Christo died yesterday at 84)     • New Coronavirus Losing Potency, Top Italia
    [See the full post at: Debt Rattle June 1 2020]

    V. Arnold

    Ilargi, you’re a machine; pumping out the debt rattle; 24/7/365…
    But you’re not a machine; you’re flesh and bones; give yourself some slack and take some quiet time alone and wandering about you’re world…
    We’re here, always have been, always will, …
    Of course you have trouble in your day in, day out writtings…who wouldn’t?
    All I can offer is; keep on trucking on; no matter the shit coming you’re way…

    V. Arnold

    All I can offer is; keep on trucking on; no matter the shit coming you’re way…

    …most of it is internal dialogue; good or bad, it’s disruptive at best and very negative at worst…
    …ignore it and keep moving…


    Who remembers? Susan Rice
    Who is afraid of an American Spring?

    More of Susan Rice speculating on CNN that Russia is fueling US protests: “I would not be surprised to learn that they have fomented some of these extremists on both sides using social media. I wouldn’t be surprised to learn that they are funding it in some way, shape, or form.”
    Here is One story

    Starting with protests in Tunisia (Noueihed, 2011; Maleki, 2011).[1][2]

    It was sparked by the first protests that occurred in Tunisia on 18 December 2010 in Sidi Bouzid, following Mohamed Bouazizi’s self-immolation in protest of police corruption and ill treatment.[92][93]
    Ṭāriq aṭ-Ṭayib Muḥammad al-Būʿazīzī; 29 March 1984 – 4 January 2011) was a Tunisian street vendor who set himself on fire on 17 December 2010, which became a catalyst for the Tunisian Revolution and the wider Arab Spring against autocratic regimes. His self-immolation was in response to the confiscation of his wares and the harassment and humiliation inflicted on him by a municipal official and her aides.

    Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali fled to Saudi Arabia on 14 January 2011 following the Tunisian Revolution protests.

    scholarship literature on the Middle East, political scientist Gregory Gause has found, had failed to predict the events of the Arab uprisings.

    The Arab Spring is widely believed to have been instigated by dissatisfaction, particularly of youth and unions, with the rule of local governments, though some have speculated that wide gaps in income levels and pressures caused by the Great Recession may have had a hand as well.[39] Some activists had taken part in programs sponsored by the U.S.-funded National Endowment for Democracy, but the U.S. government claimed that they did not initiate the uprisings.[40]

    May 31 George Floyd protest news
    As protests continue across the United States into the early hours of Sunday morning, at least 25 cities across 16 states have imposed curfews. The National Guard has also been activated in around a dozen states and the District of Columbia.

    6 Killed, Thousands Arrested As 26 States Called In National Guard To Quell 3rd Night Of Chaos

    Here is another version of the story that is scaring the elites

    tony smyth

    That Zero Hedge article is one of the best and most persuasive I’ve read in a long long time. Worse, I live In Tokyo where the level of attempts to “stimulate” inflation has reached farcical levels.

    More and more I believe we are living in a repeat of the fin de siecle period in Europe 1880 -1914, where Europeans believed they could figure out anything through science and logic, that they were too civilised to ever go to war again. The slaughter on the Somme put paid to that notion. Here we are again, this on an even bigger scale, the moments before the collapse. “Of course we can print money ad infinitum without consequences, of course we can deplete the aquifers, trash the soil, kill the blacks, wipe out plants and animals, all without consequences”. [and if for SOME reason it does all go horribly wrong, I have my private plane waiting to take me to me secret bunker in New Zealand]

    Polder Dweller

    Excess deaths may be the best, if not only, way to get an accurate fatality number for COVID19.

    I couldn’t disagree more. Especially in the UK, but also in most countries, so many people have not been examined or treated for cancer, heart problems, kidney disease etc, etc it’s no wonder there are high numbers of excess deaths being reported.


    ‘Covid19 & the denial of veridical reality’, by Catte Black:

    “It probably hasn’t passed anyone by that the covid19 crisis, whether manufactured or exploited, has caused great schisms in the alternative media.

    Almost from day one there was a divide between those who opted to accept and even endorse the rollout of authoritarian measures by governments around the world as ‘necessary evils’ (or even as harbingers of a world socialist revolution; beats me how that is supposed to work but still), and those who pointed out that this rollout was at best flagrantly disproportionate and opportunistic, and at worst a planned response to a planned or cynically manipulated ‘pandemic’.

    Over the last few months the position of the latter has become stronger by the day, while that of the former has been weakened to the point of collapse.

    As we have pointed out many times the official data has never supported the panic memes. In fact the two entities, data and narrative, co-exist almost independently of one another, telling mutually contradictory stories, without anyone in the Panic-sphere (to coin a phrase) seeming to notice or mind very much..”




    Excess deaths may be the best, if not only, way to get an accurate fatality number for COVID19.

    I couldn’t disagree more.

    Oh c’mon, maybe you’re not trying hard enough, we know you got it in you!

    More seriously, what you display is a very low opinion of the very doctors and medical staff that have been and still are working their asses off. You’re claiming that they have let 10s of 1000s of people die of cancer, heart conditions etc. without giving them the care they deserve and would otherwise have received. That’s quite the statement. Let’s see the evidence. You might do better, if you’re bent on finding scapegoats in that part of society, by looking at care homes than at hospitals.

    Even more seriously, with all these governments trying to twist their own testing failures into some ”I meant to do that” kind of thing, there is no doubt that many corona patients were never properly diagnosed, or even tested, dead or alive. That we DO have evidence of. Which makes it inevitable that they make for at least a substantial part of excess deaths. Why would one even want to try and turn that into an argument?

    Polder Dweller

    Oh wow, I didn’t even see that as a bone of contention. I’ll look around for evidence if you like, but the sources of my opinion are the NOS Journaal from a week or so ago about a cancer patient having his follow-up treatment delayed indefinitely even though it was at a critical stage; another NOS piece where a cardiologist from the VU was practically begging people who were having any heart issues not to delay; the BBC saying that thousands of people with illnesses other than Covid19 were not getting treated; a GP friend of mine in the UK who echoed exactly the same point; and my neighbour who works on a children’s ward at the LUMC and told me they’re running at about 25% normal capacity.

    This has absolutely nothing to do with me having a low opinion of doctors and nurses (which I most certainly don’t have) who I know very well are working hard under often very difficult circumstances.

    Dr. D

    Speaking of graphs:

    So…they brought forward the deaths of people clinging to life in nursing homes. Then those people died and deaths plunged. At the end of year, no additional overall deaths?

    Death rate here is 0.0003.

    But then, the riots can be called Covid deaths. Hey, if you shut down the economy, jail people at home, get rid of 40 million jobs, then order them to wander wearing masks while there’s no work on Monday can there be unintended consequences? ‘Unintended’. Ha. About as unintended as the people leaving pallets of bricks before each protest. Those were bought somewhere and paid for with something, you know.

    So, they’re trying their long-planned civil squib. People are already catching on.

    Says Susan Rice: “It’s the Russians! Honest! When have we ever lied?” Oh, yeah. And then too? And that other time? And yellowcake, incubators, and chlorine? As these unimaginative minion troglodytes follow the CIA handbooks like high-school interns.

    The hospital here where I live literally shut down and didn’t see anyone except emergencies and has only now started to schedule the backlog of cases and operations on a triage basis. That didn’t mean you didn’t get care, but it does mean they would have caught your colon cancer 4 months earlier. Because: bureaucracy, some had critical care delayed, like dental or eye surgery were considered “optional” for … reasons … when really there was risk of deadly infection or blindness. These things happen even with the best intentions.

    ‘Unintended consequences’ you could see 1,000 miles off. That may have been the right decision, if we ever get data that doesn’t self-conflict we’ll know, but such decisions have very clear and in this case, very high costs. The fine hospital now is probably teetering on bankruptcy because all normal operations were stalled, and although well-run, were it not the hub hospital would almost certainly collapse. Others will. Was it worth it, or did we get bad data from the WHO, China, and the Media from the get-go? Even when we know will anyone admit it?

    Apparently the virus no longer exists. Everyone congregates and breathes heavy, sometimes spitting blood, and the media cheers. Unlike only a week ago in Michigan, when it was super-irresponsible. Funny ol’ world. We were never at war with Estasia. We were always at war with Eurasia. These are not the droids you’re looking for. What virus? Ah, love is never having to say you’re sorry, you were wrong, or explain anything afterwards. And the U.S. is made of pure love. Until tomorrow. When Squib War is over, it will have never happened, and like goldfish they’ll pick something else. Look! Squirrel!



    Dana Boente is huge! I

    Dana Boente is a key player in the efforts of Congress to repeatedly impeach President Trump, go after General Flynn, and to then provide cover for all of these efforts.

    He was critical to the effort by the FBI to with hold Brady evidence from General Flynn’s lawyers. That is why Wray, head of the FBI, hired Boente as the FBI’s top lawyer!

    Dana Boente is a “huge ground zero” deep state swamp creature. That is why it has taken so long to out him!

    Do not under estimate his importance. He was there from the very beginning! He is corrupt beyond belief!

    He was the one who got AG Sessions to recuse himself making possible the 3 efforts to impeach President Trump! Without Boente none of this would have happened!

    Hopefully Wray is the next to go!

    John Day

    “Avifavir, known generically as favipiravir, was first developed in the late 1990s by a Japanese company later bought by Fujifilm as it moved into healthcare. The drug works by short-circuiting the reproduction mechanism of certain RNA viruses such as influenza. Russian specialists modified the generic drug to enhance its efficacy for treating COVID-19”

    Favipiravir, the first drug to be approved, by China, for COVID treatment, has long been used for influenza treatment in Japan, and underwent FDA testing in the US in 2015, also for influenza, but was never marketed in the US. It would be no great leap to do so.
    What it is, is a nucleoside analog. RNA consists of 4 nucleosides that make the information chain, and favipiravir, like remdesivir, is enough like one of these nucleosides to ret incorporated into the RNA genetic chains, but it doesn’t work right. The chain can’t be copied right, so the virus does not reproduce right.
    Favipiravir is a pill, not an IV infusion. Big advantage.
    It has an excellent safety record as a flu medicine, and can be given early in the course of illness, since no IV infusion in a hospital is needed. Early treatment, preventing the buildup of high viral load, has been the best strategy so far. Treating the dying has gone badly.

    John Day

    I’m not sure about the problems with use of “excess deaths”, in a situation where it is not possible to get reliable counts of infections. It’s good, now that infections are widespread enough to show up in excess deaths.
    It is a bit too early to see the colon cancers not treated in the excess-death category, but some of the heart attacks that did not go to the hospital are there.
    Let me muse a little about viral mutation.
    In the lab, viral mutation is completely a directed process, directed by gain-of-function criteria, in military biowarfare labs.
    In the wide world, a lab virus will keep mutating, RNA viruses have a fairly high mutation rate, even the error-correcting coronavirus family.
    All mutations will be either threat-neutral to hosts, or threat-reducing to hosts, since the virus began as threat-optimized to host populations.
    Ilargi has discussed this several times. A virus on it’s own just does the best it can to make more virus, and killing hosts goes against that, so it is selected against. This article confirms that viral bias, so I am biased to like it. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-virus/new-coronavirus-losing-potency-top-italian-doctor-says-idUSKBN2370OQ
    The vitamin-D hypothesis moves in the same direction of mortality-reduction, as we go from winter solstice to summer solstice. Those tables will start to turn again at fall equinox, as vitamin-D levels start to wane in the northern hemisphere, absent massive supplementation (“I don’t get no respect”).
    Vitamin-D, chloroquine/zinc and favipiravir, as well as the tendency to mutate-milder all play in the favor of human organisms. Improve your odds by taking vitamin-D, and having arrangement to get prompt testing and prompt antiviral treatment as an outpatient, at the point that you get symptoms of systemic illness like fever, abdomianl pain, diarrhea or shortness of breath, not just upper airway dysfunction in nose and throat.
    Wear a mask and wait for this thing to weaken further.
    Be sensible. Don’t be a warrior for anybody.


    Polder & Dr. D:

    I think studying the annual deaths figures will take a number of years to sort themselves out.

    Yes, short term Covid-19 killed a lot of people and will continue to kill more people. We still don’t know the consequences to long term health for those who caught the Covid-19.

    But the lockdown will also kill people too. One thinks of delayed medical treatment, people killing themselves, etc. But then less people may have died driving, getting shot, etc. too.

    Clearly some deaths were brought forward but some were also delayed. It isn’t so simple.

    So five years from now annual deaths could both drop below normal and increase above normal for periods of time reflecting the deaths brought forward or delayed.


    Australia’s stalled migrant boom derails golden economic run

    About time we had this Ponzi Scheme revealed for what it is. TO dream the impossible dream, growth can go on forever. The pollies and corporates are unable and unwilling to see beyond tomorrow.

    Until recently the mantra has been that tomorrow will be just like today only more so! Glorious growth.
    Now maybe we will be forced to see that tomorrow will be just like today, only more so! A rich banquet of consequences will be served.


    “I couldn’t disagree more. Especially in the UK, but also in most countries, so many people have not been examined or treated for cancer, heart problems, kidney disease etc, etc it’s no wonder there are high numbers of excess deaths being reported.”

    Yes, but Iatrogenic malpractice is also a colossal cause of death. With people avoiding hospitals, deaths from malpractice will also go down. So the question is: do the numbers saved by avoiding hospitals equal or surpass those who die from avoiding necessary procedures?

    Given the staggering death rates caused by malpractice, that’s an open question.


    John Day

    @dermotmoconnor : Oh, good point there! Offsetting penalties. (Take vitamin-D and eat fresh vegetables)

    “Yes, but Iatrogenic malpractice is also a colossal cause of death. With people avoiding hospitals, deaths from malpractice will also go down. So the question is: do the numbers saved by avoiding hospitals equal or surpass those who die from avoiding necessary procedures?”


    The COVID-19 pandemic is real. The 56-second overview, above, shows that the 2020 deaths from the virus are now greater than Malaria or Malnutrition. Yes, there are consequences due to overwhelming of hospital systems with sick patients and stopping elective procedures and medical checkups. For profit hospitals are losing money. The West is in the “Greatest Depression” with unemployment rising to 1930s levels. The riots are not just about racial injustice; they are also about economic inequality, the lockdown and the loss of democracy. Basically, the unrest is due to the abject failure of government to address these grievances and control the virus. Plus, there are shock entrepreneurs who exploit violence to make a profit.

    There is a very short period left for the Establishment to recognize this is a revolutionary period. The pandemic has split the world into nations that controlled the virus and those that can’t. Unless youth are provided jobs that support families, democracy restored, and free national public health system rebuilt to test, trace and isolate the ill; North America will splinter apart into autocratic failed pariah-states.


    Trump found a job for the troops coming home.

    John Day

    @Vietnam Vet.
    Agreed, but the elites have to feel despair and capitulate. Howzat gonna happen?

    The WHO, what may remain of it, is sort of disavowing a second coronavirus wave.
    This will fill out their portfolio of sequentially taking every side of a controversial issue in such a way as to be consistently worse than a coin toss.
    They say they can’t talk about it, but hint that it’s the nice sunny weather that will prevent a second wave.
    (As we now know, it will continue to be nice and sunny forever. It’s the new normal. The days will never again shorten.)
    Vitamin-D, from sunlight on skin, is very important for normal function of the immune system.
    There has been very good correlation between lower vitamin-D levels in hospitalized patients, and worse disease.
    Very few hospitalized patients have been found to have normal vitamin-D levels.
    Those were low normal, not mid normal, and they fared the best.
    (Do take 5000 units of vitamin-D per day, won’t you?)

    MAJOR: WHO Makes About-Face and Rules-Out Second Corona Wave – Breaks with Bill Gates Predictive Model

    My Fellow Transnational Elites, we are going to need another crisis to tide us through the long summer of discontent.
    Let’s have race riots!
    Everybody has been cooped up for months, feeling really restless and insecure, and the weather is great.
    All we need is the right spark, and enough encouragement.
    Then we can institute martial law, the next logical step, since self-quarantine is starting to fail.
    We can maintain order as our global economy goes through the biggest reset since the Great-Depression/WW-2.
    Did you make sure the bricks got sent to the protest sites, and the agents-provocateur got paid?

    Trump did not (yet) invoke The Insurrection Act. His voice sounded tired and deeply troubled during his address.
    ​ ​President Trump announced from the White House Rose Garden Monday evening that he planned to mobilize “all available federal resources, civilian and military” to put an end to violent protests across the country, while blaming the outbursts on “professional anarchists, looters, criminals, antifa” whom he described as “domestic terrorists” bringing widespread harm to the nation.
    ​ ​As expected following remarks from Press Sec McEnany earlier, President Trump insisted during a brief speech that he would send in military personnel to quell violence and looting if governors failed to act. He also insisted that his administration was committed to justice for Floyd and his family, and that Trump’s administration is “an ally” of peaceful protesters.
    ​ ​”I am dispatching thousands and thousands of heavily armed soldiers,” Trump said Monday at the White House, clearly seeking to reassure terrified business owners and members of the community in areas hard-hit by the coronavirus and the riots that he would uphold his duty to maintain order.

    ​20 unanswered questions about the George Floyd Protests (​could be more refined, but at least it’s asking)

    It looks like the Congressional Budget Office is saying that it will take a full decade for the US economy to rejoin the track they were predicting in January, which is to say “never”…
    Comparing its interim, May 2020 projections to the last official forecast made in January 2020, the CBO said that the level of nominal GDP in the second quarter of 2020 would be $790 billion (or 14.2%) lower than the agency had previously forecast in January 2020 (a number which unfortunately will only grow larger with time especially if the Atlanta Fed’s 52% GDP drop forecast is accurate). Subsequently, the difference between those projections of nominal GDP narrows from $533 billion (9.4% lower in the latest projection) ) by the end of 2020 to $181 billion (2.2 percent lower) by 2030.

    Here is a Libertarian (Ayn Rand type) view, with stuff I like and don’t like. It’s that kind of a day:
    ​ ​At the same time, there is much more going on here than police abuse of power. Floyd became such a powerful symbol for people of all races and classes. He could have been any one of us. The boot on the neck smacks of Orwell’s chilling prediction of life under government plans: “If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face – forever.”
    ​ ​Americans of all classes, races, and political affiliations refuse to acquiesce to that future. Enough is enough.
    The fires that burn in our cities today were born long ago with government impositions in every aspect of our lives. The impositions date back many generations. In the course of three months, the lockdowns stacked the wood; Floyd’s murder was the match.

    That’s One Way to End a Lockdown

    John Day

    After this last story there’s another picture of “your humble narrator” in the garden, making a call slightly early, and living with it. http://www.johndayblog.com/2020/06/a-fresh-crisis.html

    ​Iranian tankers were 2200 km from the US coast when the Iranian-flagged “Fortune”, followed by “Forest”, entered Venezuelan waters, challenging the US embargo and the US’s threats. The Islamic Republic was broadcasting loud and clear a strong message.
    ​ ​The first message was dispatched to the US administration after Gulf and Arab Leaders conveyed a direct message to the Iranian leaders: “Washington is determined to stop the Iranian tankers sailing to Venezuela”. Iran responded to all messages received that “its five tankers will sail to Venezuela and if any of these tankers is intercepted, Iran will respond in the Straits of Hormuz, the Gulf of Oman or anywhere else it sees fit.”
    ​ ​“These five tankers – the Clavel, Fortune, Petunia, Forest and Faxul- are only the beginning of the supply to Venezuela. Iran has the right to send any of its tankers anywhere in the world and any US interception will be considered an act of piracy and will trigger a direct response,” said an Iranian decision-maker who revealed the Iranian response to the US administration via message-carriers.
    ​ ​“Iran had decided to avoid the horn of Africa because the plan was for the first tanker to reach the Venezuelan waters on the first day of Eid el-Fitr. The aim was to share an important day of the Islamic Republic’s defiance to the US in its backyard and to break the sanctions imposed on one of Iran’s main allies. It is a message for the “Axis of the Resistance” that Iran will not abandon its friends and allies anywhere in the world whatever the challenges. It is directly confronting the US by imposing a new rule of engagement”, said the source.
    ​ ​Iran shut its ears to all threatening messages from the US menace and instructed its five tankers to go not round the horn of Africa but through the Gulf of Aden via Bab al-Mandab strait, the Suez Canal and Gibraltar into the Atlantic Ocean- where the US has a strong presence and influence. This shortens the distance and it tested the intentions of the American Navy. Simultaneously, Iran informed its allies of its readiness to confront the US if ever an escalation should loom on the horizon so that these allies within the “Axis of the Resistance” are ready for a wider confrontation if needed.
    ​ ​The first Iranian tanker, “Fortune”, reached the Caribbean Sea on the first day of Eid al-Fitr, on Sunday 24th of May, with US Navy ships in the vicinity. The tankers are carrying over 10 million barrels of oil but also Alkylate and spare parts to start repairing any of the eight “out of order” refineries, to enable oil-rich Venezuela to be self-sufficient in the future. The US sanctions on Venezuela had paralyzed Venezuelan refineries and caused gasoline shortages, with the aim of overthrowing the legitimately elected President, Nicolas Maduro.


    Elections do not work in America. The system is too corrupt. The only way to bring about meaningful change is for people to take to the streets. That has finally started to happen, though I have to admit that the triggering event caught me by surprise. I cannot believe that anyone could be as callous, stupid, merciless and depraved on camera and in broad daylight as Derek Chauvin and his three spineless sidekicks. It would be a great step forward if America’s rage was redirected towards the people and institutions at its rotten core.


    John Day:

    I was never very worried about Iranian tankers visiting Venezuela because making the effort is a rather expensive transaction.

    Besides Iran likely isn’t doing this for free!

    I would simply stand back and let them do it!

    Besides a lot of this gasoline will end up on the black market and be exported to Columbia!


    Naming it was an enormous factor in where we ended up. A name for a syndrome that covers the entire gamut of symptoms of any disease (diagnosed with a non-diagnostic test) pushed out the research needed to discover the real culprit in institutions. There is an opportunity still being lost- like discovering Legionaire’s disease is specific to plumbing and moistness.
    I am comforted by so many front-line MDs wanting an answer despite the doctrine handed down from the weasels. I am distressed that so many terrified people are only glomming onto “expert” advice that makes them more terrified. I want to comfort my friends: “you are in little danger”. They want to remain terrified. Why?

    In “Close Encounters of the Third Kind” the two protagonists are put on a bus to take them away from their goal of climbing Devil’s tower. Most of the round-ups fear the “deadly threat” and are compliant with their own removal. Our heroes take off their masks and realize it is a scam. They ditch the bus. They climb the tower. One gets to thumb a ride with the aliens. The other finds her son.
    Let’s get off the bus.
    There’s an economy to build that is skew from the fancy folks. Let’s get to it. Unmasked face to unmasked face; person to person, in little groups and in big gatherings. As humans have done forever: let’s ignore the weasels and get down to it.


    “They” Live.


    Whilst the killing of George Floyd is utterly reprehensible, please don’t fall for the “He was such a sweetie” being promulgated by his girlfriend and others. Far from it.

    He had a history of five jail sentences dating back to 1998. These included ‘possession of a deadly weapon with intent’ (2005) and ‘Aggravated robbery with a deadly weapon’ (2007). In the latter case, he entered the home of a woman during the day while she was alone and followed her around the house, in a search for valuables, with a gun held variously to her back, stomach and head.

    Various Minnesota sites have portrayed George Floyd as “a beautiful spirit” who “turned his life around” after being released in 2012. Actually, he turned his life around by becoming a bouncer. When Covid19 scare tactics – largely driven by corrupt “liberals” – left him without a job, Floyd rapidly returned to his roots, and tried to pass a counterfeit $20 bill at a local store.

    Perspective folks, perspective.

    V. Arnold

    Perspective folks, perspective.

    Devil or angel; it doesn’t matter; the facts on the ground are; he died by homicide, by a cop, after he was handcuffed and subdued. All because he tried to pass an alleged, counterfeit $20 dollar bill!
    Justice has been denied…unto death…


    Floyd rapidly returned to his roots, and tried to pass a counterfeit $20 bill at a local store.

    Germ, you have dredged up stuff from more than 20 years ago, stuff that suggests a violent past. Can people change? Can they repent? Even if Floyd did something illegal here, nothing indicates violence. Nothing suggests that he was armed. Even assuming Floyd should have been arrested, the penalty for “passing” a counterfeit bill is not death.

    Everybody should be outraged by this, and not just because of the apparent racism. This is inexcusable police brutality. The police cannot be the judge and executioner even before someone arrested gets to the police station. There was no need to put a knee on his neck. And the other three imbeciles — completely useless. The US needs police with a spine and a conscience, not moral ciphers like these four.


    We went to see Cristo’s Gates, and seayed with my wife’s cousin, Dennis Oppenheim, here is one of my favorites of his:

    Device to root out evil

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