Oct 142026
 
 October 14, 2026  Posted by at 9:29 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , ,  32 Responses »


Vincent van Gogh Women Picking Olives 1889


• Russia’s Offensive Ability Is Broken – Kyiv’s Former Top General (BBC)
• UK and Poland Accuse Russia of “Mayhem” (CTH)
• Europe’s Diesel Shortage Is a Problem Created by Political Design (Lacalle)
• Zelenskyy Requests His Own “Diesel Deal” with the United States (CTH)
• German Opposition Demands Trump-style Diesel Deal With Russia (RT)
• Ramifications of the Trump-Putin Energy Deal (CTH)
• President Trump is Making Chopper Pressers Great Again (CTH)
• Jack Smith Could Track Phone Contacts, but What About the Lawyers? (Manney)
• Trump Might Not Be as Bad as He Appears (Paul Craig Roberts)
• Trump Suggests Ilhan Omar’s Money Came From Fraud (Catherine Salgado)
• Corporate Islamification (Stefan Padfield)
• The Midterm Polling Is Absolutely, Positively, 100% Wrong. (Maybe.) (Pinsker)

 

 

https://twitter.com/GuntherEagleman/status/2109616355825569987?s=20

 

 


I want to ask for your help.

When this special operation started in 2022, military experts Douglas MacGregor and Scott Ritter both said Ukraine was losing 7-8 times more men than Russia.

That difference is now supposed to be the other way around, according to a Ukrainian voice.

Which means some 50 times more Russian victims than 4 years ago, compared to Ukrainian victims.

I don’t see how that could have happened.

Do you guys think that is credible?

“Ukraine has stabilised the front line and “broken Russia’s ability to advance” by killing so many of its men, Ukraine’s former commander-in-chief has said in an interview with the BBC.”

• Russia’s Offensive Ability Is Broken – Kyiv’s Former Top General (BBC)


Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi

Ukraine has stabilised the front line and “broken Russia’s ability to advance” by killing so many of its men, Ukraine’s former commander-in-chief has said in an interview with the BBC. Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi made the comments in an exclusive interview, his first since he was dramatically forced from his post in the summer. He addressed his sacking, disagreeing with his critics who declared him too “old school” to command Ukraine’s new, technologically advanced forces.


He also pushed back against allegations made by soldiers who previously served under him, who told the BBC they were ordered to remain at their positions even when they were almost surrounded by Russians, leading to high losses. Syrskyi said that Moscow’s overall losses in the war were six times higher than Ukraine’s. “If you count only dead, then it’s up to 11 times,” he added. Neither Russia nor Ukraine officially release the numbers of their dead. Ukraine’s military says it inflicted record losses this year on Russian soldiers in September, although that cannot be verified.

UK intelligence chiefs estimate Russia has lost around half a million men killed in Ukraine since launching its full-scale invasion in 2022. The US-based Center for Strategic and International Studies meanwhile believes Ukraine has lost up to 150,000 troops killed by June 2026.. He says this difference in death toll – as well as technological advances, and a strategy of attacking weak points in Russia’s lines while containing their advances in other parts – accounts for the current stalemate at the front.

In the first six months of 2026, Russia managed overall to seize 61 sq km, the general said. “It’s an indication that the front line has been stabilised.” The Institute for Study of War (ISW) has also confirmed this trend. One of its recent reports says that in September 2026, Moscow lost more territory than it took.


Syrskyi was appointed Ukraine’s commander-in-chief in 2024. He had previously won praise for defending Kyiv at the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, and for leading the successful counteroffensive east of Kharkiv in the autumn of that year. But President Volodymyr Zelensky fired Syrskyi this summer, amid a major disagreement with then-defence minister Mykhailo Fedorov.

Fedorov had said that instead of adapting to the realities of the changing war, the army under Syrskyi had blocked his initiatives. Zelensky initially fired Fedorov, as tensions burst into the open between the two men. But mass street protests then forced the president to also fire Syrskyi, replacing him with Maj Gen Mykhailo Drapatyi, 43.

Syrskyi told the BBC that he had “disagreements” with Fedorov because the latter “didn’t take into consideration the interests of the army” when procuring weapons and supplies. Fedorov had created an “imbalance” in supplies, Syrskyi said. He had prioritised drones while overlooking key front-line kit such as unmanned ground vehicles, pick-up trucks and motorbikes. Even with drones, Syrskyi said, there were shortages as the army got only half of what they needed.

Fedorov was a popular young minister who was known for his digital and technological initiatives. Many contrasted him with Syrskyi, who critics thought was not fit to lead the new technological arms race with Russia. But Syrskyi disagrees with such criticism. It was during his time the use of drones reached this new, unprecedented level, including deep strikes more than 2,000km (1,200 miles) behind enemy lines, he said.

Ukraine was the first country to create the Unmanned Systems Forces as a separate branch of armed forces, under his command: now, he said, drones account for 80% of Russia’s losses. Under his military leadership, however, Ukrainian troops undertook chaotic withdrawals from the eastern cities of Avdiivka and Vuhledar, and from around Pokrovsk. Soldiers who spoke to the BBC in the past complained that they were ordered to remain at their positions at any costs. By the time they were told to pull back, it was often too late as they were almost surrounded by Russian troops.

Syrskyi does not deny that such situations occur on the front line. But he told the BBC that Ukraine was fighting against a far more powerful army. In 2025, the ratio of jets and bombs was 18 to one in Moscow’s favour, he said. In the same year, Russia had two-and-a-half times more artillery pieces and shells than Ukraine. And with four million militarily trained men who they can mobilise, Russian forces can create chances to push through, he argued.

One of Syrskyi’s most famous operations was an incursion into Russia’s Kursk region that started in August 2024. It ended with a dramatic retreat the following spring, which some soldiers described as “catastrophic”. Syrskyi, however, insisted that the Kursk operation was “a necessity”.

“In the summer 2024, Russian forces were pushing along all main directions on the front line with up to six times more troops than we had,” he explained. The Kursk incursion disrupted Russia’s offensive and forced Moscow to redirect troops, giving Ukraine a respite and a chance for its stretched brigades in the east and south to recover, Syrskyi said.

He also had strong words for European allies who doubt that Russia may have territorial ambitions beyond Ukraine. He advised European partners to start preparing for the war now and “drop all illusions that [it] will not come”. He also said he believed Ukraine’s war was going to become even more technological. There will be more robots, automated systems and artificial intelligence (AI). “Even ordinary weapons now get an AI-based control system to enhance their capabilities,” he said.

Such technologies can give a new life to conventional weapons like tanks. Both Russia and Ukraine were now racing to develop “active systems of defence” to protect armoured vehicles, Syrskyi said. But he insisted that “the human role will remain definitive [on the battlefield] because [people] will need to control those systems”.

Read more …

“UK Prime Minister Says Russia Interfered in Brexit Vote, Polish Prime Minister Says Russia Sabotaged Starlink System ..”

The UK still hasn’t gottten over Brexit?!

And look, of course Russia targets Starlink. it’s used against them in battle.

• UK and Poland Accuse Russia of “Mayhem” (CTH)

As President Trump continues to confront the EU-NATO antagonists who demand increased conflict with Russia, the primary voices of the EU-NATO group shout panic about Putin’s nefarious espionage, mayhem, general mischief and other heinous activity. All of it with the ever-present ‘just trust us‘ evidence. Yesterday, British Prime Minister Andy Burnham blamed Russia for the 2016 Brexit referendum vote that took the U.K out of the European Union.


UK NEWS – […] “The prime minister told The Rest is Politics podcast that upon arriving in No 10, he had asked about possible Russian interference in the 2016 vote, adding: “I’ve had the clear answer that, yes, there was.” […] Burnham did not provide further details about the type or extent of Moscow’s activity during the Brexit referendum.mBritain Unbound, a pro-Brexit campaign group, said Burnham’s comments were “another crude attempt to undermine the legitimacy of the decision that the British people made in 2016”. (read more)

Today, Poland Prime Minister Donald Tusk, a man of notoriously intemperate disposition, said that two Turkish fellows who sabotaged the Starlink satellite station near Warsaw were operating on behalf of Putin.WARSAW, Poland — Poland is blaming Russia for an arson attack on a Starlink satellite station in September and two Turkish citizens have been arrested in connection with the suspected act of sabotage, authorities said.

The suspects, whose names were not released in line with Polish privacy rules, were arrested in Germany, Polish officials said Monday. They are accused of deliberately setting fire to Starlink infrastructure on Sept. 23 in Wola Krobowska, Poland, about 40 kilometres (25 miles) south of Warsaw.[…] Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, in a post on X, called the incident “another act of hybrid warfare.” (read more)

Meanwhile the head of British Intelligence, MI5 chief Sir Ken McCallum, warned Prime Minister Burham that promoting Russian conspiracies without solid evidence to support his claim may lead to an erosion of confidence in the U.K government. Apparently, like the German people, the British are laughing at government leadership.

[He] suggested Russian trolls would be “delighted” to be front page news again, “despite the comparative unimpressiveness” of their efforts. He added: “There is a really important difference between interference attempted and outcome swayed. There are diabolical plots afoot, and serious seriousness is demanded.


ZELENSKYY TODAY – “I spoke with Prime Minister Mark J Carney. Thank you, Canada! I briefed him on the latest Russian strike on Kyiv and no advance warning from our partners about the ballistic missile launch. This is the second time Ukraine has received no warning this week.

A rescue operation is underway – the strike damaged a residential building, and the fire engulfed apartments on the first through eighth floors. All emergency services are on the scene, and residents are being evacuated. So far, one person has been reported killed and six injured. My condolences to their families and loved ones. There was also a strike on the grounds of an energy facility – one of Kyiv’s main power plants. We are counting on our partners’ support.

We also discussed contacts with the United States and diplomatic developments that may take place this week. It is important that the world clearly supports an end to this war and real steps toward de-escalation – genuine steps that Russia will actually take to bring its war and its killings to an end.”

Read more …

Very much so.

• Europe’s Diesel Shortage Is a Problem Created by Political Design (Lacalle)

The diesel agreement between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will not solve the diesel shortage, considering the magnitude of the problem created by years of misguided, wrongly called “environmental policies.” Complaining about diesel prices and the US-Russia deal while eliminating domestic refining capacity and bombing refineries is just another example of bureaucratic hypocrisy.


Renewables are important, but they cannot substitute diesel, just as they have been unable to offset the importance of natural gas. Diesel is essential for every segment of the economy, from transport, manufacturing, and farming to distribution. Now, European politicians complain. However, governments cannot negotiate away years of lost refining capacity. Europe’s vulnerability is structural. Yes, war has intensified it, but policy choices helped create an energy system increasingly dependent on imported fuels, expensive infrastructure, and high taxation.

Furthermore, the risk is that—as happened in the past—oil and gasoline prices may fall, and the European businesses and families will still pay much higher energy and fuel prices. According to European Commission figures and comparisons based on official European and US data, Europe suffers an enormous energy-cost disadvantage after two decades of massive subsidies and renewable rollout.

Industrial electricity prices are more than twice those in the United States, while industrial natural gas prices reach four times US levels. At the pump, European consumers pay approximately 47% more for diesel and 70% more for gasoline. This is not simply an oil-price problem. It is an enormous competitiveness problem that permeates throughout the economy.


On October 9, Trump announced that Russia would release 300,000 tonnes of diesel immediately, followed by 500,000 tonnes in November, one million thereafter, and another three million, subject to refinery conditions. Washington temporarily authorized Russian diesel transactions until April 7, 2027. However, these are announced commitments, not confirmed deliveries. It may mitigate but not solve the diesel crisis.

The distinction is important. A sanctions exemption may permit trade, but it cannot repair damaged processing units. According to International Energy Agency estimates, Russian diesel production has suffered a temporary but significant blow, declining almost 30% following Ukrainian attacks. The important element is a policy choice, not a consequence of war.

Europe’s refining contraction is the key factor behind the structural diesel problem. It has lost more than 20% of refining capacity since 2009. At the end of 2025, the EU, Britain, Norway, and Switzerland had 72 mainstream refineries and an annual primary processing capacity of 625.4 million tonnes, down 167.6 million tonnes. Industry association FuelsEurope counts 35 closures since 2009.

The deterioration did not stop with the 2022 Ukraine war and has continued recently. Europe lost almost 400,000 barrels per day of refining capacity between 2024 and 2025, with five refineries closing over two years. This trend is a continuing reduction in the infrastructure needed to turn crude into usable fuel.

Environmental policy is part of this story, but taxation and policy choices have aggravated the problem. Governments made it uneconomical to upgrade aging facilities or build new units. Furthermore, at least five closed European facilities abandoned crude processing through conversion into biorefineries. These conversions worsened conventional refining capacity and did not offer a reliable and sustainable alternative.

The policy mistake is obvious and reminds us of the same errors committed with nuclear plants and natural gas supply. Eliminating capacity is a policy mistake without a credible path to reduce diesel’s importance. This move was not a transition but a jump into the void. Europe now relies more heavily on refined products from the Middle East, the United States, and India. Importing products is not an environmental policy success. “Not in my backyard” led to dependency and loss of competitiveness. The EU was the fourth-largest buyer of Russian fossil fuels, accounting for 8% (EUR 1.2 bn) of Russia’s export revenues from the top five importers in August 2026, according to CREA.


Ukraine’s refinery attacks have reduced fuel availability, and Russia has restricted diesel exports. While damaged refineries can be repaired, it will take months. War in the Middle East and disrupted Hormuz flows have compounded the shortage. The European Central Bank estimates reported in September put the refining-margin contribution to diesel prices at €0.41 per liter, approximately 19% of the pump price.

That is why watching Brent alone misses the problem, as crude and diesel are different markets. On September 21, EU diesel averaged €2.226 per liter, the highest reading in the European Commission’s series since 2005. Taxes accounted for €0.861, or 38.6% of the price. VAT applies on top of excise duties, effectively taxing the tax itself.

The EU minimum diesel excise is €0.33 per liter. America’s federal diesel tax is 24.4 cents per gallon, before state taxes and fees. European taxation adds a persistent cost wedge that cheaper crude cannot eliminate. This means that the average EU final diesel price is almost 50% higher than the US one. Thus, falling oil prices can provide relief without restoring competitiveness. Fixed duties remain, and scarce refining capacity may keep diesel expensive even when crude oil becomes cheaper.

Europe needs to abandon ideology in energy, provide solid investment conditions, eliminate regulation, and support an adequate refining system. Even though the European Commission’s newly announced “refinery dialogue” mentions these issues, it does not change the underlying ideological perspective or any of the existing regulations and misses the key measures to reduce the competitiveness gap, which come from lower taxes, more investment, and elimination of punitive regulations. Emergency Russian cargoes may help at the margin, even if European politicians complain about the US-Russia deal. However, none of this is going to repair Europe’s own policy-created vulnerabilities. The solution may take years, even if the changes are implemented today.

Read more …

He wants Russian diesel?!

• Zelenskyy Requests His Own “Diesel Deal” with the United States (CTH)

The people around Zelenskyy, his support network, are struggling trying to find solid footing for a counter narrative.


That’s why these remarks from Zelenskyy sound weird; in reality, they just don’t quite know how to respond because what President Trump is revealing in the “diesel deal” with Russia really doesn’t have much to do with diesel fuel supplies.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy (via X) – “I don’t believe the volume of diesel Russia will export will affect the price. Moreover, we see that they can export from 300,000 to 500,000 tons a month today. Meanwhile, global consumption stands at 120 million tons a month. What kind of impact can that have? I don’t think it would have any. If some people think otherwise, so be it.

So I believe there are entirely different reasons behind these actions. If this is the approach, then why isn’t America making a “diesel deal” with Ukraine? Let Ukraine propose a “diesel deal.” We do have influence over whether these ships can sail or not, whether these refineries can operate or not. If that’s the case, then let’s do it.

Electricity is what matters to us. That’s clear. If we can be guaranteed protection for our power system, then we will not strike Russia’s diesel infrastructure in response. Electricity is first and foremost about helping people – keeping their lights on. It also means helping Europe. Everyone knows that we are connected to the European power grid. And if our energy infrastructure is not being destroyed, we can help some countries that are facing shortages by supplying them with cheaper electricity.

So, yes, let’s sign a corresponding “diesel deal” with the President of the United States.”

Following the lengthy phone call with Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin, President Trump noted during remarks on the way to Ohio that his administration was unsure of who exactly would be conducting strikes against Ukraine power infrastructure. The lights going out in Kiev has a similar appearance to the performative air raid sirens whenever a high-profile EU govt official pays a visit [World War Reddit].


The answer to the Zelenskyy question is most likely, because the Trump-Putin diesel deal isn’t just about diesel. Just like the Belarus potash deal was not just about potash. What both the Russian-diesel fuel and Belarusian-potash have in common is an agreed pricing system that is outside western commodity structures.

Whether he intends it or not, President Trump is revealing the banking and finance system that profits from control of how energy products are bought and sold. This is further evidenced when you look at the Ukraine support assembly through the prism of what nations and political interests promote the climate change agenda.

It is not accidental that every nation and political apparatus supporting Ukraine is part of the green energy, climate change, Paris Climate Treaty, Build Back Better advocacy group.

On the banking/finance side, the western control system tries to block funding for coal, oil and gas. Those who price the markets for these energy products operate directly inside the same institutions. Chairman Xi, President Putin, Crown Prince MbS and President Donald Trump represent the other side of that dynamic and support traditional low-price energy development.

Europe is simply Europe, acting hypocritically and trying to survive financially. Europe is governing itself inside a system they built that is unsustainable. They rail against cheap energy yet purchase cheap energy from Russia; all while accusing Vladimir Putin of aggression….. yet demanding their purchase prices flow through the western banking/finance systems they control.

President Trump must be looking at all of this and listening to the arguments by Putin, Xi, Modi et al, that suddenly take on an entirely new context as he watches how this same western control system is leveraging its power structures to diminish his political strength and weaken his office. It is fascinating to watch all of this play out with a context for understanding that is missed by most of our neighbors.

Read more …

Break the EU.

• German Opposition Demands Trump-style Diesel Deal With Russia (RT)

Two German opposition parties have called for restoring economic ties with Russia following US President Donald Trump’s example in striking a diesel deal with Moscow, challenging Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s sanctions policy as soaring fuel prices put further pressure on Europe’s largest economy.


The right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the left-wing Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), which together command a majority in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt’s parliament, are preparing a joint resolution demanding an end to anti-Russia sanctions and financial support for Kiev amid growing frustration over Berlin’s foreign policy and its economic consequences. “Germany also needs a diesel deal with Russia,” Claudia Wittig, deputy leader of the BSW parliamentary group, said, according to German media.

Wittig described fuel prices at German filling stations as “a scandal,” arguing that sanctions against Moscow had “failed across the board” and were primarily hurting Germany itself. She insisted that Berlin should go further than a one-off fuel agreement and resume regular imports of Russian oil and gas to help rescue German industry. “We need policies that think more about Köthen than Kiev,” Wittig said earlier, referring to a German town in Saxony-Anhalt. “We can no longer afford this war.”

AfD co-leader Alice Weidel also hailed Trump’s deal with Moscow, accusing Merz of undermining Germany’s economy with sanctions and expensive liquefied natural gas imports. “That’s how it’s done!” she wrote on X on Saturday. “While Merz ruins Germany with sanctions and expensive LNG, Trump practices realpolitik. German interests instead of escalation!”

The initiative comes after Trump reached a surprise agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday to ease a global diesel shortage. Washington subsequently suspended sanctions on Russian diesel exports, allowing Moscow to release hundreds of thousands of tons of fuel onto international markets.

Trump has repeatedly blamed Vladimir Zelensky for exacerbating the global energy crisis by targeting Russian oil refineries despite Washington’s warnings. On Saturday, he suggested that Ukrainians should replace their leader, accusing Zelensky of rejecting numerous opportunities to settle the conflict.

The joint resolution is scheduled for a vote in the Saxony-Anhalt parliament in Magdeburg on October 14. AfD and BSW hold a combined majority following September’s regional elections, although the state legislature has no authority to lift federal or EU sanctions against Russia. The initiative also marks a further breach of Germany’s longstanding political “firewall” against the AfD, which mainstream parties have sought to exclude from power despite its growing electoral support.

Merz’s government flatly rejected any prospects of easing its anti-Russia stance and vowed to pursue even more sanctions against Moscow. Government spokesman Stefan Kornelius insisted on Saturday that Berlin’s support for Kiev remained “unwavering.” Meanwhile, Green Party co-leader Franziska Brantner blasted Trump’s agreement with Putin as the height of “unscrupulousness.”

The chancellor, whose popularity has sunk so low that he faces calls to resign from within his own party, has faced mounting criticism over the impact of his policies on Germany. Wagenknecht previously accused him of turning German citizens into “cash cows for Ukraine.” Moscow has likewise accused Merz of acting more like a “Ukrainian chancellor” than a German leader.

Read more …

“Trump and Putin have exposed the game being played by the City of London..”

• Ramifications of the Trump-Putin Energy Deal (CTH)

It is challenging to put the geopolitical perspective into an easily digestible format because the construct of western finance is the only reference point available for most Americans. We do not have solid references for what exists outside the western monetary constructs that have existed for generations. However, Barbara Boyd tries to expand our cognitive bubble to explore the potential ramifications of a Trump-Putin energy agreement.


I do not personally think President Trump engages these dynamics from a reference of London or the U.K. Instead, he simply seems to recognize the institutional financial constructs are no longer working to the benefit of American interests, and those constructs happen to be from the British Commonwealth financial system and the bank of financial settlements.

Promethean Action’s Barbara Boyd opens with President Trump’s Sunday announcement of an energy ceasefire in the war between Russia and Ukraine, and what led up to it: his remarks to the press that it’s time for Ukraine to get a new president, and Friday’s agreement for Russia to supply diesel to the United States and the world, with a Treasury license authorizing Russian diesel through April 2027.

She argues that Trump and Putin have exposed the game being played by the City of London: Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russia’s refineries, which the Washington Post examined, keep fuel prices high ahead of the November 3 midterms, while the Financial Times reports the administration threatened to cut off weapons and intelligence if the attacks continued, and members of Congress move against the deal.

After President Zelensky’s interview on ABC’s This Week blaming high prices on the war in the Middle East, the episode turns to the energy wars: Russia’s ban on fuel exports, U.S. diesel above $6 a gallon, no major new U.S. refinery since 1977, and Europe’s emergency diesel stocks, held mainly by Germany and France, until Trump’s export threat brought a G7 release of 100 million barrels of oil and diesel.

Her presentation closes with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Operation Economic Outcast against Iran’s regime, the petrodollar system and London’s commodity markets since the 1971 collapse of Bretton Woods, President Putin’s case for long-term contracts between producing and consuming nations, the Conservative Treehouse’s argument that the world’s biggest economy is aligning against the financial schemes of London while retaining the dollar, and Secretary Bessent’s chart on prices under Biden and Trump.


Read more …

“Trump hits on Ilhan Omar, Zelenskyy and Putin, Kimberly Guilfoile, the issues with Ukraine and Russia energy ceasefire.”

• President Trump is Making Chopper Pressers Great Again (CTH)

Chopper Pressers have always been the best pressers, but when there are headline events swirling that capture great attention, chopper pressers are always awesome. I really appreciate them for how Trump cuts through the nonsense.


President Trump gives brief remarks about a variety of headline grabbing events. The first two minutes are captivating in the rapid-fire honesty. Seriously, in just the first two non-pretending minutes Trump hits on Ilhan Omar, Zelenskyy and Putin, Kimberly Guilfoile, the issues with Ukraine and Russia energy ceasefire.

Ilhan Omar is a terrible complainer and sketchy, but I have nothing to do with that. Not sure who is targeting Ukraine energy infrastructure, “we’ll have to take a look at that.” Looking at possibly having to fire the Ambassador to Greece for being a sketchy grifter. Ukraine and Russia “agree to the energy ceasefire because I’m saying they agree.”


Read more …

Jack Smith thought he could do anything.

• Jack Smith Could Track Phone Contacts, but What About the Lawyers? (Manney)

Jack Smith’s investigators wanted to know whom one of President Donald Trump’s closest aides called and when. Newly unsealed court papers show how they got permission. The sharper question is what happened when those phone records led them to Trump’s lawyers.


Two applications filed in February and April 2023 sought permission to monitor a cellular number the Trump administration identified as belonging to Susie Wiles, who then worked with Trump’s political operation and is now White House chief of staff. The public filings redact the subscriber’s identity. Federal judges Beryl Howell and James Boasberg approved the respective requests.

Smith’s team investigated government records and classified documents recovered from Mar-a-Lago, as well as possible obstruction. Prosecutors gave the court an investigative reason to monitor the number. They wrote that AT&T records showed contacts with at least nine witnesses or subjects within two days of interviews or grand jury testimony.

Investigators suspected additional calls might reveal efforts to contact witnesses after federal agents approached them. The applications described that suspicion alone doesn’t establish intimidation, obstruction, or any other crime, even if a phone call occurs near a witness interview.

The government’s request went beyond a simple list of outgoing calls. The pen-register and trap-and-trace applications covered incoming and outgoing phone numbers, communication times and durations, email addresses, IP addresses, and device identifiers. Prosecutors also sought historical call-detail records, and each order authorized up to 60 days of monitoring.

The filings expressly excluded communication content. These orders provide no basis to claim investigators listened to conversations through this surveillance authority. But names, timing, and frequency still show investigators who were talking with whom, including who contacted a lawyer immediately after questioning.

Earlier declassified FBI communications show agents reviewing contacts involving 21 Trump-affiliated defense attorneys and at least five journalists. In a March 24, 2023 message, an agent noted that a lawyer had called Wiles, recorded the call, and compared its 41-second length with earlier contacts. Another note tracked her phone activity after an April 7 FBI interview.

From Just the News: The three-year probe of the ex-president — which put Joe Biden’s administration in charge of the legal fate of his GOP rival in the 2024 election — was approved at the highest levels of the Biden Justice Department, including by Attorney General Merrick Garland, Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco and FBI Director Christopher Wray, the memos show.

In March 2022, Wray sent a memo to Garland and Monaco, seeking the attorney general’s approval to open a “Sensitive Investigative Matter” that would become Plasmic Echo. “I recommend you approve,” Lisa Monaco wrote at the end of the memo, leaving her initials “LM.” Days later, Garland signed the memo with his initials, giving his approval.

The new applications don’t specifically alert the judges to possible monitoring of defense-attorney contacts. Investigators sought broad collection from the phone, so such contacts could appear whether or not prosecutors initially intended to focus on them. The critical unanswered question is what agents did after identifying those calls.

Federal law helps explain why the two judges approved the surveillance. Under 18 U.S.C. Sections 3122 and 3123, prosecutors must certify that the information is relevant to an ongoing criminal investigation. Unlike a traditional search warrant, the statute doesn’t require probable cause. Meeting that statutory threshold, however, can’t answer every question about how investigators used the information.

Communications between lawyers and clients receive special protections, but a telephone call alone isn’t automatically privileged. The released applications alone don’t demonstrate a violation of attorney-client privilege. They do raise the question of whether prosecutors identified defense-related contacts, restricted their review, or used patterns in those calls to guide further investigative steps.

Smith has defended his investigations and denied political motivation. The newly disclosed documents don’t establish that either judge knowingly approved improper collection, that investigators intercepted privileged conversations under these orders, or that the surveillance itself violated federal law.

From Just the News: Howell has been a central figure in Trump-related litigation for nearly a decade. As chief judge of the D.C. federal court from 2016 to 2023, she oversaw grand juries used by Russia collusion Special Counsel Robert Mueller and by investigators probing efforts to overturn the 2020 election.

In March 2023, she pierced the attorney-client privilege between Trump and one of his lawyers, Evan Corcoran. In that case, she relied on the crime-fraud exception, forcing more testimony in the classified documents vcase. She also enforced Smith’s warrant for Trump’s Twitter account and fined the company $350,000 for slow compliance.

A second application to extend the pen register and tap and trace monitoring of Wiles’s phone came in April and was approved by U.S. District Judge James Boasberg, another Washington DC-based jurist famously critical of Trump, the court records show.

Americans deserve something more specific than assurances. Who reviewed the defense-attorney contacts? What safeguards applied? Were any call patterns used to anticipate legal strategy? Congress should seek those answers, and prosecutors should be prepared to supply them. Court approval explains how this monitoring began. The public still deserves to know how it was handled.

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“..if he is fighting to get out of the Establishment’s traps..”

Is that a caveat?

• Trump Might Not Be as Bad as He Appears (Paul Craig Roberts)

Yesterday Nima and I discussed the lies that are ricocheting around news events and how political figures think they can succeed with such obvious lies as the Strait of Hormuz is open, the US is in control of the Strait, and 20 million barrels of oil are being transported through the Strait daily. https://www.youtube.com/live/V2kwURVOV5Q


Nima was concerned with the latest claim from Trump that a deal has been reached with Russia in which Russia will provide 4.8 million tons of diesel fuel to the market in exchange for Trump removing the sanctions on Russia. To facilitate the deal Trump asked Zelensky to quit attacking Russian diesel facilities, and he asked Putin to stop attacking Kiev. Both Zelensky and Russia, according to reports, say they are unaware of this deal. The Russians say that they have no interest in a temporary ceasefire and that what Russia wants is a negotiated comprehensive end to the conflict with the West. Nima asked how could Trump announce an agreement that Zelensky and Putin didn’t know about.

NOTE: This morning, October 13, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the supply of Russian diesel fuel to the market “is a very mutually beneficial element of Russian-US cooperation,” but there is no direct link between the US decision on Russian diesel fuel and Russia’s position on Ukraine negotiations. Peskov goes on to say that Moscow has only read media reports about a US-European plan to resolve the situation in Ukraine: “No, we have not heard anything about it. We have seen reports in the media, but we have not heard anything about it,” Peskov told reporters. I replied that I could only speculate.

One possible answer, perhaps even a likely answer, is that Trump is putting out a narrative that if it takes hold could lead to a solution. One part of the solution is to protect the Republicans in the midterm elections from higher energy prices and the inflation that rising energy prices cause. Trump might also see that a deal in which sanctions are removed in exchange for more energy supply is a way to extract Washington from the conflict Washington started in Ukraine without it looking like an American defeat.

If sanctions are removed and energy is flowing, what is the point of a return to hostilities? I have always thought that Putin’s choice of Stanford and Harvard educated Kirill Dmitriev as Russia’s negotiator and Trump’s choice of business men Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law as Washington’s negotiators was crafted so as to produce a deal that would present a mutually profitable business arrangement more profitable than an unpopular military conflict.

I am a long time critic of Putin for ignoring Napolean’s important statement that “The reputation of one’s arms in war is everything, and equivalent to real forces.” I and Doctorow have concluded, correctly or incorrectly, that Putin’s refusal to use sufficient force to stop Ukraine’s ability to continue the military conflict has caused the conflict to greatly widen and that this widening implies eventually a nuclear conflict. We see many signs of this as the conflict is no longer limited to the Donbas battlefront but has expanded deep into Mother Russia as a result of long-range weapons supplied by the US and Europe and targeting information supplied by the US and MI6 to Ukraine.

Two more formerly neutral European countries have joined NATO and more NATO countries have agreed to host US nuclear missiles on their territory. Clearly the war has widened. Nevertheless, I understand Putin’s approach which does risk nuclear war when Russia has no further room to back away. Putin understands that if he ends the conflict by striking down Ukraine’s ability to continue the fight, which Russia could have done 4.5 years ago and could do tomorrow with conventional weapons alone, he will have obtained Russia’s aims but without Western acceptance. So in effect the conflict doesn’t end.

If Putin imposes a military solution, the West will say: “See, we told you. Putin intends to resurrect the Soviet Empire and spread it into Europe. Germany will be next.” Indeed, Germany seems already to think that Germany is going to be next as Germany prepares for war with Russia, an ill-advised enterprise.

The disagreement between Putin and myself is which of us has the best odds in the gamble on the table. My concern is that Putin’s sacrifice of a decisive military victory is resulting in more Western provocations that will result in nuclear war. Putin’s concern is that a Russian imposed military victory will not be a good victory because it will harden Western opposition to Russia, whose demonstration of strength would be regarded as a threat to all of Europe.

I cannot say that I am right and that Putin is wrong. I just hope he is aware of the risk. This concludes what Nima and I discussed, so you can save the time of listening to our discussion. Nima’s questions on occasions are provocative and push me into clarifying statements of how I view events as they unfold.

I will end with giving you important information. As a high level Reagan political appointee instrumental to President Reagan’s two important issues–the defeat of stagflation and the end of the Cold War, I can tell you that most presidential appointees are not in office to serve the President but to serve their own careers. It is not unusual for presidents, prime ministers, chancellors, dictators even, to have ministers working against the titular head in behalf of their own agendas and career. In my time in the Reagan administration my main opponents were Reagan’s appointments as his chief of staff, as his budget director, as his chairman of the council of economic advisors and their media whores who thrived on leaks against Reagan’s agenda.

For example the budget director, David Stockman had the intention of being the first budget director to balance the budget. From this achievement he would go on to become US Senator from Michigan or wherever it was he was from, and from there to the presidency. Stockman saw Reagan’s tax rate reduction as an obstacle to his career ambitions.

Murray Weidenbaum, chairman of the council of economic advisers, was busy reassuring conservative foundations that supported his situation at Washington University that he was against budget deficits and thus gave little if any support to Reagan’s economic policy.

Reagan’s chief of staff, Jim Baker, just wanted to reassure Wall Street and believed that a small tax rate reduction of 5%, which would be wiped out by inflation before it could be enacted, sufficed to show a Reagan victory in lowering taxes.

The facts which I had in my hands as Assistant Secretary of the US Treasury for Economic policy had no influence against these agendas. I simply had to run over them, which meant no further government career. But that is what it took to get to get Reagan’s economic policy out of his own administration so that Congress could vote on it.

I prevailed because I was right, had Reagan’s support and support in Congress and was willing to take the hits. Today 45 years later only Elon Musk can afford to take the hits. Today not even the US Secretary of Health, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., can prevail over Big Pharma’s influence over the FDA, CDC, NIH–all of which report to Secretary Kennedy and all of whom obey Big Pharma. Secretary Kennedy cannot even get the proven dangerous Covid-19 vaccines prohibited. Big Pharma’s political campaign contributions are more powerful than the Secretary of Health.

In my opinion, it is the inability of elected governments to prevail over powerful private interests, such as the Israel Lobby, the military-security complex that President Eisenhower warned us about as long ago as 1961, and Big Pharma, that has given rise to an ideological Democrat Party that sees the institutional structure of American society so corrupt that it must be overthrown. The US Supreme Court destroyed the accountability of the US government when it ruled that corporations had First Amendment rights to purchase the US government to serve their agendas.

I doubt that the US will have a French or Leninist revolution, but that is the intention of the new ideological Democrats, and I understand the frustrations that have led them to their war on existing society. There is no doubt whatsoever that the republic established by the Founding Fathers has been corrupted.

Where will redemptive American leadership come from? Trump was defeated by his captivity to the Israel Lobby. The Democrats are committed not to the restoration of America but to America’s overthrow.

It is a true statement that “Where there is no vision the people are lost.” In a world in which the only interests of peoples is in self-affirming narratives the people are doubly lost. A life in false narratives is a life in The Matrix.

Life in The Matrix is life in Western countries today. It is not a life worth living. The question is: In all of the world today do any people other than the Israelis and Zionist MAGA Americans believe in themselves, believe in their country?

Perhaps the Iranians?

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She supposedly arrived with nothing, just a few years ago.

• Trump Suggests Ilhan Omar’s Money Came From Fraud (Catherine Salgado)

President Donald Trump just implied that there could be evidence linking Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Somalia) to millions of dollars in lucrative fraud.


Early on October 12, federal agents from the Department of Homeland Security, in partnership with the Department of Justice, executed a search warrant at Omar’s D.C. home. Members of the Trump administration including Vice President JD Vance and DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin have alleged that Omar did commit immigration fraud, including by faking a marriage with her own brother. But she and her family are also connected with the massive Somali fraud machine stealing hundreds of millions of dollars from Americans in Minnesota.

On Tuesday, Trump posted on Truth Social, “Why did Ilhan Omar report a Net Worth of up to 30 Million Dollars just a short time ago, and then immediately say, ‘Oh, I made a mistake! It’s really $100,000.’ Could it be that her highly paid accountant actually reported the money that was stolen from her fraudulent activities in Minnesota? Would something like that be possible?”

He pressed his speculative point home. “Do you think the accountant actually gave the right number the first time, 30 Million Dollars, and then she was forced to disavow because she never would have been able to report where that much money came from? She must have freaked out when she saw that money!”


Omar certainly lives a plutocratic life for an alleged refugee to America who supposedly subsists off her congressional salary. “Where did her house come from, where did her cars come from, and what about her lovely place in Washington, D.C.?” Trump asked. “I didn’t know that Congressmen and women made that kind of money, but I do know her husband, according to information and belief, makes almost nothing, so it couldn’t have come from him. How many people did she illegally bring into our Country from Somalia? America wants answers, and we want them, NOW!”

GOP lawmakers and the convicted mastermind of the $250 million “Feeding Our Future” scheme implicated Omar in the fraud. Fraudsters emailed each other about “Ilhan’s Office” and her sister is tentatively identified as one of the USAID fraudsters who registered at the same address as the “Feeding Our Future” criminals.

Sen. Ernst said “One of our spending bills making its way through Congress was a $1 million earmark from Representative Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, which was an earmark that was supposedly going to a substance abuse clinic, which actually happened to be housed in a restaurant and run by three individuals that share the same residential address, according to their IRS paperwork.”

After all, Omar has said that she would prioritize Somalia’s interests and her father is reportedly one of the Somali officers responsible for the Isaaq genocide.

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The Islam doesn’t belong in the US. Or in Europe, but it may be too late there.

• Corporate Islamification (Stefan Padfield)

So, what is Islamification?


A recent documentary by former Virginia congressman Nick Freitas titled “The Immigration Crisis That Will Destroy the West” warns viewers about the risks created by the Islamification of Western civilization. The film focuses primarily on the negative impacts of cultural norms related to the treatment of women and girls, with a reviewer noting allegations of “a significant problem of organized, industrial-scale rapes being conducted by mostly Muslim men” in the UK.

Relatedly, another recent column noted that “seven of the top 10 countries with the highest prevalence of child marriage have a Muslim-majority,” and went on to ask: “Why does Islam appear so frequently in discussions surrounding religious persecution, terrorism, and certain forms of sexual violence?” Similar concerns have also been raised about the cultural roots of rampant fraud we’ve seen in places like Minneapolis.

And even more recent fiery riots in France have left some “pointing to second and third-generation immigrant youths–many from Muslim North African and sub-Saharan backgrounds–as the core of the violence.” Perhaps pulling all the foregoing together, Douglas Murray argues that “the West remain[s] at war with Islamic radicals.”Importantly, while conservatives cherish individual liberty and religious freedom, those commitments are perverted when it is claimed that only a nihilistic multiculturalism properly embodies those values.

To the contrary, in addition to individual liberty and religious freedom, conservatives also value truth and free speech in pursuit thereof, both of which demand acknowledgement of the fact that not all cultures or branches thereof are equal, that some cultures are better than others at the very least vis-a-vis a specific people in a specific place at a specific time, and that certain cultures can pose a threat to Western civilization if they are imported en masse without any expectations of assimilation.

Accordingly, the liberty and freedom of individuals to practice their religion should be respected and protected, and members of all religions who strive to assimilate should be embraced. However, the people who support terrorism in the name of Islam, or who promote cultural norms directly antithetical to Western civilization, such as undermining property rights or the rights of women and children, should not be ignored or empowered. Nor should asserted connections between those issues and Islam be handwaved away as exaggerating a “few bad apples” problem.

This brings us to the role corporations play in the Islamification of Western civilization, and what applicable fiduciary duties and expectations of good corporate governance have to say about that. Consider how the following corporate actions might increase the risk of immigration-related harms to the United States, including Islamification–which will be explained in more detail below.

First, corporations fighting restrictions on welfare benefits could be supporting incentives for problematic immigration. Second, corporations seeking to import cheap labor could be similarly promoting mass immigration with costs outweighing benefits. Third, corporations opposing ICE operations could be making it easier for illegal aliens who harm the United States to stay in the country.

Finally, H-1B visa abuse can exacerbate immigration-related strains on U.S. citizens. This applies both generally and specifically to risks related to Islamification because while discussion of demographic issues related to H-1B visa abuse can focus on beneficiaries from India, which is apparently 80% Hindu, it is highly unlikely that the H-1B beneficiary population excludes Muslims. For example, 14% of India’s population apparently identifies as Muslim.

Of course, the reputational and financial risks associated with a corporation creating the perception that it directly or indirectly supports the Islamification of the U.S. are not the only factors to be considered by corporate leaders in making related business decisions. But it is also arguably true that failing to become fully informed about these risks could constitute a breach of duty, including being found guilty of bad faith in relevant cases of willful blindness.

An argument could certainly be made that no corporate fiduciaries dealing with this issue can claim to be fully informed if the word “Islamification” never once appears on the board agenda.

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I’m not sure I understand this.

• The Midterm Polling Is Absolutely, Positively, 100% Wrong. (Maybe.) (Pinsker)

Our world runs on incentive structures: Your values and goals drive your decision-making. It’s a fundamental tenet of free market capitalism. Trouble is, our incentive structures can also lead us astray. Low-hanging fruit, socioeconomic pressures, and instant gratification cloud our judgment. Instead of striving for long-term accuracy, we’ll settle for short-term accolades.


Which takes us to the “science” of polling. Because it IS a real, legitimate science. And pollsters are real, legitimate scientists. Y’know, just like TV weathermen. It’s fascinating: When we crack the veneer of scientific-sounding stats, numbers, and probabilities, both weather forecasters and pollsters use the same exact language. It’s kind of eerie.

“Forecasting is both a science and an art,” wrote famed meteorologist Jeff Haby. “To be a great forecaster, the meteorologist needs to have skills in weather pattern recognition… [including] intuition (the 6th sense).” Because the numbers alone aren’t reliable. Nobel laureate Kenneth Arrow, who served as a weather officer in World War II, quipped, “One thing I learned from meteorology is that being an actual science was no guarantee of exactness.” Which is why weathermen interject their own biases, experiences, and assumptions into weather forecasts. It’s where the “art” — and “intuition” — come in.

Wait: art and intuition? What the hell kind of “science” relies on artwork and ESP?! Actually, polling does, too.“Polls are the worst form of prediction ever, except for all the other kinds,” said pollster Nate Silver. “In some ways… it’s amazing that polls are as accurate as they are.” Because, when it comes to quantifying key factors, including an accurate, representative sample of likely voters, as fellow pollster John Zogby freely admitted, “This is where polling is an art.”

It’s subjective. There’s a near-infinite galaxy of competing, contradictory statistical projections, and each pollster is free to accentuate — or deemphasize — absolutely anything he or she wants. Just like TV weathermen. bPredicting the weather and predicting the midterms are both science-based without being scientific. Science is just the starting point: Yes, pollsters and weathermen use real numbers and real math to paint a picture, but their “art” is guided by their intuition.

And pleasing the paying customer. This is where the incentive structure comes in — and where TV weathermen and pollsters differ. TV weathermen, after all, are almost always employees of a TV station. It’s analogous to a tenured professor: The station has a vested interest in promoting ‘em, so unless they screw up spectacularly (or sink in the ratings), a likeable, “accurate enough” weatherman has a job for life.

It’s why TV weathermen are incentivized to play it safe, avoid major screwups, and make semi-reliable predictions. But pollsters (usually) aren’t employed by a TV station. They’re either contracted for a short time, or they work for an independent company and need the media to trumpet their results — or nobody will hear it.

Either way, the incentive structure is the same: When you’re on a contract, you’re incentivized to do whatever you can to earn a renewal. This means keeping your customer happy. And if you need media outlets to trumpet your results, you’re incentivized to tell them a story that they’re likely to run.

Weather forecasts and political polling projections aren’t science. They’re science-based — the same way pro wrestling is sports-based. There’s real athleticism, and the wrestlers are working hard, but c’mon, methinks someone has his thumb on the scales: Fun fact: Over the past eight years, about 70% of August polls have overestimated support for Democrats.

It seems someone has put his thumb on the pollsters’ scales, too. So it’s not remarkable that the 2026 polls point to a Democratic victory. The opposite is true: This is exactly what we’d expect the incentive structure to produce! And whattaya know, 70% of the time in the month of August, that’s what we get.

Which is an institutional problem: Left-wing reporters, at left-wing media outlets, favor left-wing news stories. That’s not a secret. It’s why Republican trust in the media has nosedived. And since most major media outlets are left-wing, most political polls lean to the left — because that’s the incentive structure of the media marketplace.

So yes, the midterm polling has been utterly abysmal for Republicans. And yes, we’ve heard the super-scary stats: One expert gives the Democrats an 84.5% chance of winning the House. Another expert gives the Democrats a 74.8% chance of winning the Senate. Those are VERY scientific-sounding numbers. Why, these scientists are so precise, they even used a decimal point!

But these numbers don’t mean anything. They’re not real. It’s science-inspired artwork. (Or science fiction.) They were guided by “intuition.” Y’know — ESP. Which means that the 2026 midterms aren’t anywhere close to over and Republicans shouldn’t be demoralized.

Because the God’s honest truth is, nobody knows nothin’. We don’t know which demos will show up and vote on Election Day, which ones won’t, and which ones were underrepresented in the polls. Nor do we know which issues will be top-of-mind on November 3, 2026. The election is still three weeks away. And that, dear reader, is the final caveat: If nobody knows nothin’, then, alas, we can’t disprove the media polls either. All we can do is note the systemic bias and the sky-high error rate.

So get out and vote like the midterms are still up for grabs — because they absolutely are.

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Feb 012025
 
 February 1, 2025  Posted by at 10:35 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , ,  73 Responses »


Edward Hopper New York movie 1938

 

• Replace the Income Tax With Tariffs? (Jeffrey Tucker)
• Trump Slaps 25% Tariffs On Canada & Mexico, 10% On China (ZH)
• Trump Vows To ‘Absolutely’ Impose Tariffs On EU (RT)
• Trump Says DC Black Hawk “Was Flying Too High… By A Lot” (ZH)
• Trump Confirms ‘Serious Discussions’ With Moscow Over Ukraine (RT)
• EU Divided Over Western Troops In Ukraine – Times (RT)
• Is The EU Finally Coming To Its Senses On Russian Energy? (Amar)
• EU Energy Policy Row Triggers Norway Government Collapse (RT)
• Hungary Calls For Lifting Russia Sanctions (RT)
• Merkel Joins Virtue-Signaling Outcry Over AfD (ZH)
• Tulsi Slams Deep State At Confirmation Hearing: I Refuse To Be Their Puppet (MN)
• The Arbitrary Hypocrisy of American “Justice” (Paul Craig Roberts)
• Six Ways From Sunday (Jim Kunstler)
• Trump is Not Going to Make US Into ‘Bitcoin Superpower’ (Sp.)
• Third World US Cannot Get Its Astronauts Home From Space (Paul Craig Roberts)
• Trump Wants To Revive ‘Star Wars’ – Zakharova (RT)
• The US is Turning Into a Crybaby Empire (Sp.)

 

 

 

 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1885084376242835534

Watters

Tariffs etc etc

Kash J6

 

 

 

 

Leavitt
https://twitter.com/i/status/1885402197027909925

Laken

Calley Means

Hawley

Tucker Piers

 

 

 

 

For sure an interesting topic. And it’s not B/W: you don’t have to switch from one to the other in one fell swoop. But you can gradually raise tariffs, and lower income tax “accordingly”. That would raise citizens’ prosperity. Combine it with DOGE, and you get somewhere.

• Replace the Income Tax With Tariffs? (Jeffrey Tucker)

There was a time, before 1913, when you could keep every penny you earned. You did not have to file with the federal government, telling them what you earned and giving the feds their cut. Your finances were your business and no one else’s. You had the right to earn, own, and keep property, and it was sacrosanct, guaranteed by U.S. law and tradition. There were no audits, investigations, account freezes, withholdings, or any other forms of payment. There was your productivity and you and that’s all. How was the government funded? It earned revenue through tariffs. These are paid directly by importers and indirectly by producers and consumers if the costs can be passed through. As strategies for gaining revenue, this approach is relatively noninvasive. It left the population alone.

Back in those days, however, the federal government barely existed as compared with today. More precisely, in real terms, the federal government in 1885 spent in inflation-adjusted dollars about 0.05 percent of what it spends today. Even then, people believed that it was too big and wanted it cut back to size. Donald Trump has recently been schooling people in the history of revenue strategies and he is teaching something that people have not known. He has explained how this period of American history saw the greatest amount of economic growth we’ve ever seen. He is correct about that and he is also correct that this was the period of the tariff. The cause and effect, however, is murky. The main themes of this period were freedom and sound money. The dollar was governed by the gold standard and there was no central bank.

The federal government itself had no presence in the life of the American family or typical American business. Those facts more than tariffs account for the difference between then and now. As an aside, I cannot remember another U.S. president having as clear an opinion on 19th-century economic history. Most comments by presidents have been limited to pieties about the Founding Fathers or Lincoln but skip over details concerning revenue sources or controversies concerning national banks and the like. Trump is clearly different, highly confident in these details of history that are lost even on most economists. Trump has explained that the income tax came along in 1913 as a replacement for the tariff. That is correct in design but the historical reality was slightly different.

Tariffs were not abolished entirely. The income tax just became a second and additional source of revenue. Then the Great War came, financed in large part by the central bank (the Federal Reserve) that was created the same year. The income tax and the Fed became the financial source of Leviathan power. Both came about in 1913, along with the direct election of Senators that blew up the bicameral structure of Congress and put the big cities in charge of America’s equivalent of the House of Lords. Trump’s history lesson opens up the opportunity to examine all of this more closely. In 19th-century terms, he seems to be siding with the Hamilton faction inherited by Henry Clay, the Senator from Virginia who advocated what came to be called “the American System.”

This was a policy of protective tariffs, a national bank, and federal subsidies for internal improvements to promote economic growth and national cohesion. That’s a pretty good summary of what seems to be Trump’s position. In historical terms, the Clay view contrasted with the Jeffersonian view, which favored a tiny government, free trade, no national bank, no industrial subsidies, and a society of small farmers to serve as the economic engine. These days, the debates between the Jeffersonians and Hamiltonians seem far less relevant to the current situation. Both Hamilton and Clay would be appalled by the size and scope of government power, and would happily link arms with Jefferson and John Randolph of Roanoke to cut the beast down to size. That seems to be the actual ambition of Trump, to be an agent of change that makes the federal government manageable again.

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“..we would expect to see USDCAD move decidedly higher come Monday..”

• Trump Slaps 25% Tariffs On Canada & Mexico, 10% On China (ZH)

Tomorrow, February 1, the Trump administration will slap 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff on China, as announced during Friday’s press briefing by White House spox Karoline Leavitt, who denied reports of a delay to March 1. There will be no delay, selective targeting, or slow roll-out of phased-in tariffs as speculated by Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1885393819098898702

That said, there could be certain exemptions – such as for oil and gas, which Leavitt did not elaborate on. For now, all we have to go on is Trump’s most recent comments on oil: “It depends on what the price is. If the oil is properly priced, if they treat us properly — which they don’t,” he said Thursday while speaking with reporters. The United States imported nearly 4.6 million barrels of oil per day from Canada in October, and 563,000 barrels from Mexico. Daily US production over the same period averaged nearly 13.5 million barrels per day. So in this scenario – full tariffs with zero quarter given, “we would expect to see USDCAD move decidedly higher come Monday, challenging the 1.50 level and representing a more than 3% move higher in the cross relative to current spot. To be clear, Canada could retaliate with dollar-for-dollar tariffs in absolute terms since its trade relationship with the US is balanced, however, USDCAD will still be higher given that the US economy is more than 10x the size of its Canadian counterpart,” according to DB.

On Friday, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said that any tariffs would stoke an ‘immediate’ and ‘forceful’ response. “We’re ready with a response – a purposeful, forceful but reasonable, immediate response. It’s not what we want, but if he moves forward, we will also act,” said Trudeau, adding that all options were on the table. Canada sends 75% of its goods and services exports to the US, meaning that the tariffs will sting. “I won’t sugarcoat it – our nation could be facing difficult times in the coming days and weeks,” Trudeau continued. “I know Canadians might be anxious and worried, but I want them to know the federal government, and indeed, all orders of government, have their backs.” Ontario Premier Doug Ford has already vowed to slap back by pulling American alcohol off of store shelves (and into his pantry?) – as Canada is the world’s second largest market for America’s distilled spirits, behind the 27-nation EU.

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“Am I going to impose tariffs on the European Union? You want the truthful answer, or should I give you a political answer?”

• Trump Vows To ‘Absolutely’ Impose Tariffs On EU (RT)

US President Donald Trump has announced his intention to impose tariffs on the European Union, citing unfair treatment in trade practices. This follows the implementation of 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, and 10% on Chinese goods, effective February 1. The European bloc has been bracing for possible trade restrictions under the new US administration for months after Trump issued multiple threats to impose tariffs on the EU unless specific conditions are met. In December, Trump demanded that the EU reduce its trade deficit with the US by significantly increasing purchases of American oil and gas. “Am I going to impose tariffs on the European Union? You want the truthful answer, or should I give you a political answer? Absolutely, absolutely,” Trump told reporters at the White House on Friday.

“The European Union has treated us so terribly,” the US leader added. He confirmed plans for “something substantial” against the EU but did not provide specific details regarding the targeted goods or the exact tariff rates. This is not the first instance of trade tensions between the US and the EU under Trump’s administration. In 2018, during his first term, Trump imposed a 25% tariff on steel and a 10% tariff on aluminum imports from the EU, Canada, and Mexico, citing national security concerns. In response, the EU implemented retaliatory tariffs on American products such as bourbon whiskey and motorcycles. The new tariffs on Mexico and Canada were justified by the Trump administration as measures to address issues like illegal immigration and the influx of fentanyl into the United States.

Despite warnings from economists about potential global economic repercussions, including increased inflation and disrupted supply chains, Trump has remained steadfast in his approach. On Thursday, Trump also threatened to impose 100% tariffs on BRICS nations if they attempt to undermine the “mighty US dollar” by creating an alternative currency. Members of the economic bloc have accelerated efforts to reduce reliance on third-party currencies in bilateral trade in recent years, especially after Western sanctions led to the freezing of Russia’s reserves held in dollars and euros, following the escalation of the Ukraine conflict in 2022.

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Intentionally? Ceiling is 200 feet. Chopper was at 380.

• Trump Says DC Black Hawk “Was Flying Too High… By A Lot” (ZH)

While there are countless facts still left to be uncovered and scrutinized, there’s an early indication that the worst US air disaster since 9/11 may have resulted from a flight-path deviation by the Army helicopter that collided with a passenger jet landing at Washington’s Reagan National Airport. Remarkably, it appears an identical disaster may have been narrowly avoided just one day earlier, when an airline pilot chose to abort landing after deeming another helicopter was dangerously close. Control-tower staffing is also emerging as a major concern — including a decision to allow one controller to leave work early.

Based on a determination of the UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter’s last location before colliding with American Airlines 5342 from Wichita, the Army chopper was flying above its authorized flight path, according to anonymous sources who spoke to the New York Times. The American CRJ300 stopped transmitting tracking data at 375 feet — suggesting impact occurred far above the 200-foot ceiling imposed on helicopters in that area. The Black Hawk was reportedly under the command of a female pilot with more than 500 hours of flight time. The male instructor pilot had more than 1,000 hours, while the crew chief is also said to have logged hundreds of hours. Given the shorter duration of helicopter flights, those hours are substantial, according to Jonathan Koziol, a retired Army chopper pilot who’s assigned to the Unified Command Post that’s been organized to coordinate the post-disaster efforts at the airport.

The Army has not released the names of the crew members, but the names of the two males aboard the Black Hawk have emerged via other channels: Staff Sgt. Ryan O’Hara and Chief Warrant Officer 2 Andrew Eaves. All were assigned to Bravo Company, 12th Combat Aviation Battalion, headquartered at nearby Fort Belvoir. While there are many social media posts purporting to identify the female pilot as a male-to-female trans National Guard member who on Tuesday publicized his transition, ZeroHedge cannot find authoritative confirmation of those claims as this article is being written. On Monday, President Trump issued an executive order barring transgender people from openly serving in the military. Update: The trans pilot in question, Jo Ellis, has released a video confirming he is still alive and was not piloting the Black Hawk.

The Army says the crew was conducting a routine nighttime qualification flight, with the focus on safely navigating helicopter routes in and around Washington. However, more specifically, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said the crew was training for a “continuity of government mission.” That’s the name given for a response to an attack on the capital, or a major disaster that hits the city. In such an event, helicopters would be used to evacuate senior federal officials. The crashed helicopter was a standard UH-60; the battalion also flies the VH-60M variant: Distinguished by its gold top, it’s used for VIP transport.

Every day, more than a hundred helicopters buzz around Reagan National’s flight paths. Roughly 24 hours before Wednesday’s catastrophe, one of those helicopters alarmed the pilot of another commercial flight to the extent she aborted landing and went around. There are no reports on the type of helicopter. A female voice in the cockpit of Republic Airways Flight 4514 informed the tower of the problem at roughly 8:05 p.m. Tuesday, according to the audio recording of air traffic control traffic. The plane took a sharp turn to the west, made a loop to try to make a second approach, and safely landed at 8:16 p.m., flight tracking records indicate. — Washington Post. Meanwhile, concerning details have also emerged about the workloads assigned to the Reagan National air traffic controllers at the time of Wednesday night’s crash that killed all 67 aboard the two aircraft.

Staffing was “not normal for the time of day and volume of traffic,” according to a preliminary FAA document reviewed by the New York Times. Under normal staffing, one air traffic controller is responsible for helicopter traffic, while another guides landing and departing planes. However, on Wednesday night, one man was juggling both responsibilities. According to the Times, that’s because a supervisor allowed a different air traffic controller to leave before that individual’s shift had ended. There are several other factors that could have contributed to the accident. Among them: It’s not clear if the Black Hawk pilot was using night vision goggles, which can limit peripheral vision and depth perception, while also being problematic in an urban environment with its abundant lights.

Given the angles of the two flight paths, city lights may have camouflaged the lights of the American Airlines jet. “Going beak-to-beak at night, the lights of the [jet] tend to blend in with the city lights behind [it],” notes aviation YouTuber “blancolirio” in a detailed analysis of Wednesday’s scenario. “Another problem when you’re going head to head with each other is — if there’s no lateral movement in the windscreen — that light [of the other aircraft] is very hard to detect.” Potential miscommunication: While the tower asked the Black Hawk (“PAT25”) if it had the American Airlines “CRJ” (Canadair Regional Jet) in sight, some are speculating the Army pilots thought the controller was referring to a jet that was taking off to their right, rather than the doomed jet that was landing from their left. Others think they may have been looking at another jet on approach — behind American 5342.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1885116473217032426

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They’re waiting to meet until they can get tangible results.

• Trump Confirms ‘Serious Discussions’ With Moscow Over Ukraine (RT)

US President Donald Trump told reporters at the White House on Friday that he expects something “significant” to happen once he speaks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, confirming that serious discussions with Moscow are already underway. Trump, who took office last Monday, has repeatedly stated that he is ready to speak with his Russian counterpart as soon as possible to negotiate an end to the Ukraine conflict. The Kremlin previously said it was awaiting clear signals from the Trump administration. “We’ll be speaking, and I think we will, perhaps, do something that will be significant,” Trump said on Friday. “It’s just a senseless situation, and it’s got to stop. So whatever I can do to stop it… and we are having discussions, yes.”

When asked by a reporter whether that means he had already spoken with Putin or had a call scheduled, Trump responded, “I don’t want to say that.” Pressed on why he was withholding the information, he reiterated, “I just don’t want to say that.” “We’re having very serious discussions about that war, trying to get it ended,” he added, confirming that these talks are taking place “with Russia.” On Monday, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov stated that a phone call between the two presidents was not currently planned, as no agreement or understanding had been reached on the matter. He noted that all communication is presently being conducted at the embassy level.

Trump has pledged to negotiate a resolution to the conflict between Moscow and Kiev and has reportedly given his Ukraine envoy, Keith Kellogg, 100 days to hammer out such a settlement.Last week, the US president threatened to impose new sanctions if Moscow refused to accept an unspecified “deal” to end the conflict but maintained that he is “not looking to hurt Russia.” Russia has insisted that hostilities will only end if Ukraine commits to permanent neutrality, demilitarization and denazification, while also recognizing the territorial “realities on the ground.” Moscow has stated that it remains open to negotiations but insists that any agreement must include “reliable, legally binding agreements eliminating the root causes of the conflict.”

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Not the EU’s call. European parents don’t want their kids to be used for target practice.

• EU Divided Over Western Troops In Ukraine – Times (RT)

The European Union remains divided over the prospect of deploying a Western-led peacekeeping force to Ukraine if a ceasefire between Kiev and Moscow is reached, The Times reported on Friday, citing multiple military and diplomatic sources. Berlin opposes the idea, partly because it does not want to commit ahead of its February elections, according to the British newspaper. The Baltic states and Poland – among Kiev’s most vocal supporters throughout the conflict – are reportedly concerned that such a deployment would divert NATO’s attention and resources away from their own defense, leaving them “exposed.”

The UK, France, and the Nordic nations are the most vocal advocates for a Western peacekeeping mission. However, even among them, officials worry that the EU would not be able to carry out the operation without US involvement. A European diplomatic source told The Times that Washington’s participation would be necessary because “they have capabilities that all of Europe lacks,” including the “ability to retaliate at scale if needed.” US President Donald Trump has previously stated that Washington should not provide troops or funding for such a mission. Kiev’s European backers were also reportedly “irked” by Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky’s recent demand for a “minimum” of 200,000 peacekeepers – a number the EU alone would struggle to provide.

Moscow has consistently rejected the idea of Western-led peacekeepers in Ukraine. Earlier this week, senior Russian diplomat Rodion Miroshnik warned that any military force entering Ukraine without Russia’s consent would be considered a legitimate military target. “If Russia does not buy the idea it is dead and if the US does not provide a hammer the idea is dead,” an unnamed senior Western military official admitted, according to The Times. The Kremlin could perceive a large-scale NATO troop deployment in Ukraine as a significant threat to Russia, potentially serious enough to trigger another mobilization wave, Aleksey Zhuravlev, First Deputy Chairman of the Russian State Duma Defense Committee, warned on Friday.

Some EU officials believe a non-Western UN peacekeeping force, composed of troops from more neutral countries such as India, Bangladesh, or China, would be a “wiser alternative.” This approach, they argue, would not require US participation and might be more acceptable to Moscow. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in December that any talk of deploying peacekeepers is moot at this point, given that Zelensky signed a law banning any talks with the current Russian leadership. Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service has warned that the West could use peacekeepers to “occupy” Ukraine and once again buy time for a new conflict with Moscow.

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aka will they admit they lost?!

• Is The EU Finally Coming To Its Senses On Russian Energy? (Amar)

All that is solid melts into air,” Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels famously proclaimed almost 180 years ago. Their Communist Manifesto was published against the backdrop of the European revolutions of 1848. But they should have seen 2025 – we are beginning to witness a mighty melting of what is un-solid about EU-NATO Europe. This time, the backdrop is not (yet) a typical revolution – street fighting, barricades, and all. But there are two historic events that, in their combined geopolitical impact, will be revolutionary, though they have been anything but unforeseeable. These are, in order of importance, Russia’s defeat of the West in Ukraine, and America’s doubling down on Trumpism. The two developments have made the sands on which the EU-NATO Europeans have built their rickety policy edifice not merely shift but cave in.

Relentless obedience to Washington has always been self-damaging, but now a reckoning is at hand with accumulating self-harm reaching a tipping point into self-destruction. It is true, on the surface, that EU-NATO Europe is still digging in its heels. The EU has just produced its umpteenth renewal of sweeping – and constantly increasing – sanctions against Russia. A faction of ten among its member countries are shouting for even more. A top energy official of the European Commission is in Washington to explore ways in which the Europeans can give in, again, to ever-increasing US pressure and buy even more ruinously expensive liquefied natural gas (LNG) from their great insatiable “ally.” Yet some, even among Europe’s current elites, are still capable of intuiting that things are so desperate that they must, finally, question even apparent axioms.

As the Financial Times has just reported, there are voices, including from EU heavyweight countries such as Germany, that dare think about the unthinkable, namely returning to openly buying inexpensive fossil fuel energy from Russia. In a less topsy-turvy world, the EU should, of course, never have stopped doing so. But as it is, one aspect of Western economic warfare against Russia was the EU’s declared – if non-binding, nota bene – intention to completely abandon its best source of cheap energy by 2027. Not that this plan has really worked. In reality, the results have been mixed. Yes, the EU has managed to make its energy supply more expensive, so that its industry is struggling to remain globally competitive, with gas costs “typically three to four times higher than in the US.”

But no, the EU has not, actually, been able to ween itself off Russian energy. Instead, Moscow, according to Bloomberg, remains one of the EU’s “top gas providers.” Indeed, 2024 has just seen record imports of LNG from Russia. It is, of course, more expensive that way than by pipeline. The (still) legal but oddly underhanded way of buying and consuming this LNG stokes tension inside the EU, but that’s apparently the way its elites prefer their commerce and politics – inconsistent, unusually dishonest, a tad absurd, and held together only by a thick glue made of foul compromises and bad blood all around. In a broader perspective, EU-NATO Europe’s current, self-inflicted energy fiasco is, of course, only one aspect of its fundamentally unsound (polite expression) decision to obediently and even fanatically join the American proxy war against Russia via Ukraine.

Since then, nothing has worked out as expected. The Ukrainian Army was beefed up with Western arms, training, intelligence, mercenaries, and “advisers” to become the West’s strongest anti-Russian proxy in history. In that shape, it was supposed to inflict a military defeat on Moscow. Yet it is Ukraine now that is struggling to survive on an increasingly desperate defensive, as even the Washington Post has recently admitted (while still, obstinately, calling for more war). Western economic warfare strategists, meanwhile, boasted that they would not just impede but ruin Russia. Yet now its economy (estimated GDP growth in 2024 of between 3.8% and 4%) is doing better than that of the EU heavyweights France (0.8%) and Germany (no growth, instead minus 0.2%), as well as the EU as a whole (0.9%).

Spain, it is true, is an outlier in Western Europe (with 3.2%) but this being an exception is the point. Its success, the Wall Street Journal reports, depends on mass tourism and the use of so much migrant labor that, without immigration, Spain’s population would be shrinking. Good luck, Germany (for instance), with replicating that recipe… In addition, Western international clout would, so Western elites made themselves believe just a few years ago, compel everyone else on Planet Earth to isolate Russia. Yet now it is the West that looks lonely. First, most of the world refused to freeze out Russia, and then the West’s ongoing massive complicity in Israel’s genocidal ethnic-cleansing attack on the Palestinians shredded the last sorry remnants of the West’s Orwellian claim to global leadership based on “value” and “rules” superiority.

As for Moscow, it’s doing just fine, quietly – and not so quietly – admired by the Global South for standing its ground against sanctions that have harmed the interests of nations of that region too, while building out Moscow’s multilateral relationships in associations such as BRICS and with partners such as North Korea and Iran, and deepening its de facto alliance with China.

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“What we were clear about all along is that beginning the process of linking ourselves more closely to the EU’s dysfunctional electricity market and energy policy is completely out of the question..”

• EU Energy Policy Row Triggers Norway Government Collapse (RT)

Norway’s coalition government collapsed on Thursday after the Euroskeptic Center Party rejected EU energy policy regulations advocated by Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store. The move would subject people to an electricity price hike, the party leader and finance minister, Trygve Slagsvold Vedum, warned. It leaves Store heading a minority Labor Party government. The cabinet can govern until the next elections, which are scheduled for September, but has lost its majority in the parliament and could struggle to pass legislation. At the heart of the dispute is the fourth EU energy package, which is also known as “clean energy for all Europeans.” Adopted in 2019, it introduced a set of policies with a focus on renewables and “energy efficiency,” including reduced CO2 emissions, as well as a “robust governance system” for energy in the bloc.

Norway, which is not a member of the EU, is still closely tied to the bloc through the European Economic Area (EEA) and normally has to adopt the bloc’s rules unless it invokes a right of reservation. The Nordic nation is also a major oil and gas producer and exporter. The Center Party has argued that the changes advocated by Store would erode the nation’s autonomy, and maintained that Oslo should instead reclaim its authority in the area of energy policy. Earlier this week, Verdum blamed previous Conservative governments for contributing to energy price hikes in Norway by allowing the construction of undersea power lines to Germany and the UK.

“When the Labor leadership, instead of solving the problem, chooses to make the problem even bigger by tying Norway even closer to the EU in electricity policy through the introduction of the EU’s fourth energy market package, the Center Party chooses to leave the government,” he said. “We believe it is wrong to become more closely linked to the EU’s energy policy,” Vedum told NRK broadcaster on Thursday. “What we were clear about all along is that beginning the process of linking ourselves more closely to the EU’s dysfunctional electricity market and energy policy is completely out of the question,” the Center Party leader told a press conference following the decision to leave the cabinet.

The development drew criticism from Brussels. “We are not happy with Norway. The sentiment is as bad as I have known it,” an EU ambassador to Oslo told the Financial Times on Thursday, calling the Nordic nation “selfish” for “trying to keep this electricity for itself,” and profiteering off the EU through its gas exports. It’s not the first time that Norway and the EU have clashed over energy issues. In August 2022, Oslo said it could ration its electricity exports to the EU and the UK against the backdrop of a heatwave affecting its hydroelectric power production and domestic electricity price hikes. The announcement was slammed by Germany as a thinly veiled threat to put pressure on the bloc.

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“..we just need to get on our heels and say: dear Ukrainian friends, we understand everything, but we need this. Let the Russian gas through.”

• Hungary Calls For Lifting Russia Sanctions (RT)

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has renewed calls on the EU to lift its sanction on Russia in order to realign the bloc’s policies with the new US government. Budapest has long criticized Brussels’ approach to the Ukraine conflict as being incapable of ending hostilities and damaging to the bloc’s member states. On Monday, the EU extended its existing sanctions until the end of July. Hungary refrained from blocking the measure despite its declared opposition. In a weekly interview with state-owned Kossuth Radio, Orban said Budapest has to consider the positions of other members of the economic bloc who favor the restrictions, imposed on Russia in response to the escalation of the Ukraine conflict in 2022.

”The Hungarian interest is clear: we have lost 19.5 billion ($20bn) in three years,” Orban stressed, adding that Kiev’s behavior has become more “impudent” recently, referring to Ukraine’s refusal last year to extend a contract that had been allowing the supply of Russian natural gas to European consumers, including to Hungary. Budapest has been assured that the matter would be addressed, the prime minister explained, which contributed to its decision on Monday not to block the sanctions.Given Kiev’s total dependence on foreign aid, Orban said, “we just need to get on our heels and say: dear Ukrainian friends, we understand everything, but we need this. Let the Russian gas through.”

The Hungarian leader contrasted the EU’s approach with that of newly inaugurated US President Donald Trump. Washington is pursuing a policy of peace while Brussels opts for war, Orban pointed out. In a recent interview with journalist Megyn Kelly, Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that under President Joe Biden, the US had “somehow led people to believe” that Ukraine could achieve a military victory over Russia, resulting in a protracted stalemate that has regressed Ukraine’s development by a century. Slovakia, another consumer of Russian gas, has also criticized Ukraine’s shutdown of the transit pipeline through its territory. On Thursday, Prime Minister Robert Fico claimed that his pressure campaign against Kiev is yielding results, saying he perceived a shift in its position.

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Mutti saves the day one last time. Barely.

• Merkel Joins Virtue-Signaling Outcry Over AfD (ZH)

German mainstream politicians and media have presented that the real ‘threat’ the country is facing is not brutal terror rampages and attacks like those recently seen in Magdeburg and Aschaffenburg (both perpetrated by asylum-seeking migrants), but the fact that Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has been polling better than ever before and having serious national influence as Friedrich Merz – Merkel’s successor as leader of the country’s conservatives – seeks to push through tighter immigration controls. All of this has triggered former German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s intervention, given the supposed ’embarrassment’ of witnessing the Christian Democrats currently relying on the AfD help to pass the new immigration bill.

The conservative CDU-CSU (Christian Democratic Union of Germany and the Christian Social Union in Bavaria) has broken the longstanding taboo of working with the AfD when on Wednesday they together passed a motion calling for a crackdown on new arrivals and strengthened border controls. Former Chancellor Merkel has blasted Merz. “I believe it is wrong,” she began in fresh comments. It marks an unprecedented intervention by the former leader since she stepped down from politics in December 2021. As is custom the former chancellor has been silent for years after leaving power. It appears the intervention worked as the conservatives on Friday have failed to pass the measure.

According to the vote and the latest:
• GERMAN CONSERVATIVES FAIL WITH FAR RIGHT-BACKED MIGRATION BILL
• GERMAN LOWER HOUSE REJECTS OPPOSITION’S DRAFT LAW ON TIGHTENING MIGRATION POLICY
• The breakdown: For: 338; Against: 350; Abstentions: 5
• Apart from Merz’s conservative CDU/CSU bloc, which submitted the immigration bill, three other opposition parties — the far-right AfD, the pro-business Free Democrats and the far-left BSW — had signaled their support. Together, they had 372 seats in parliament, more than the 367 required for a majority, and there’s a handful of independents who may also support it.
• BBG: After that result and a moment of shocked silence, the conservative leader Friedrich Merz left the chamber with sunken shoulders, his immigration bill having been unexpectedly defeated. The breakdown of the vote showing which lawmakers might have broken ranks will be an interesting read.
• Early reaction from Chancellor Scholz’s Social Democrats, a post on X from SPD Health Minister Karl Lauterbach: “What a disgrace. The whole maneuver was in vain and only damaged democracy.”

She had used the opportunity to ‘remind’ everyone there should never be any association whatsoever between the mainstream parties and the AfD. She wagged her finger at Merz for breaching the longstanding “firewall” against the AfD. They are supposed to be shunned politically… but no longer. “I think it is wrong to no longer feel bound to this proposal, thereby allowing a majority with the votes of the AfD in a vote in the German Bundestag for the first time on 29 January 2025,” she wrote on her website. The walls are closing in, and AfD party officials are grabbing the popcorn to enjoy the mainstream fallout and shrieking. Without doubt, panic is truly setting in, revealed also in how quickly anti-AfD politicians have been in invoking fears of a return to Nazis and the Holocaust:

Centre-left Chancellor Olaf Scholz charged that Merz’s tactical manoeuvre was a breach of his previous promises to shun the AfD and left him “open to the accusation that he is untrustworthy”. Scholz even raised the spectre of Merz, if he wins, one day allowing the AfD into a government — a scenario that horrifies the mainstream parties in the country still seeking to atone for the Nazi regime and the Holocaust. “Conservatives who are supporters of Nazis cannot become coalition partners,” said the co-leader of the Green Youth, Jakob Blasel. He described that this means under Merz, the “Greens must not enter a coalition with the CDU and CSU.” And Robert Habeck, the chancellor candidate for the Greens, dramatically declared it a “turning point” in Germany. “Friedrich Merz and the Union have abandoned the consensus of the political center of this house not to make common cause with the extremes,” wrote Habeck.

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“President Trump has reportedly indicated that if Republicans torpedo either Tulsi or RFK Jr., it will mean “war”.

• Tulsi Slams Deep State At Confirmation Hearing: I Refuse To Be Their Puppet (MN)

During her confirmation hearing to become President Trump’s head of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard hit back at Democrats and RINO ‘conservatives’ who have spent months smearing her as a Russian asset or a threat to national security. During opening remarks, Gabbard cited examples of how the intelligence community agencies have been politicised against Trump and his supporters, asserting “this must end.” Gabbard urged that Trump’s massive victory serves as a mandate from Americans to overhaul the intelligence apparatus which has been infested and weaponised by deep state operatives. Gabbard emphasized that the reason she has been so vilified and even placed on a terror watchlist is because she refuses to act as just another puppet.

“Those who oppose my nomination imply that I am loyal to something or someone other than God, my own conscience, and the Constitution of the United States—accusing me of being Trump’s puppet, Putin’s puppet, Assad’s puppet, a guru’s puppet, and Modi’s puppet—without recognizing the absurdity of simultaneously being the puppet of five different puppet masters,” Gabbard stated. She added, “The same tactic was used against President Trump and failed. The American people elected President Trump with a decisive victory and a mandate for change. The fact is, what truly unsettles my political opponents is that I refuse to be their puppet.” In a Fox News interview following the hearing, GOP Senator Josh Hawley warned Gabbard’s confirmation could be in jeopardy because of Republicans bowing to the deep state.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1885142057309921590

President Trump has reportedly indicated that if Republicans torpedo either Tulsi or RFK Jr., it will mean “war”.

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Bob Menendez gets 11 years for accepting bribes from Egypt. Bernie and Pocahontas get to keep their Senate seats despite millions from big Pharma.. “How does this differ from the $1,417,811 bribe that Big Pharma pays in campaign contributions to Senator Bernie Sanders or the $821,941 campaign contribution Big Pharma pays to Senator Elizabeth Warren?”

• The Arbitrary Hypocrisy of American “Justice” (Paul Craig Roberts)

US Democrat Senator Bob Menendez, Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee was sentenced to eleven years in prison by federal district judge Sidney Stein for acting as an illegal agent for Egypt and accepting cash and gold bars as payment. How does this differ from the $1,417,811 bribe that Big Pharma pays in campaign contributions to Senator Bernie Sanders or the $821,941 campaign contribution Big Pharma pays to Senator Elizabeth Warren? If you think these sums don’t make Sanders and Warren agents of Big Pharma, you are out of your mind. Warren is doing her Big Pharma assigned job by trying to block Robert Kennedy’s confirmation as Secretary of Health and Human Services. Congress is up for sale, and it is purchased with campaign contributions. Everyone in Washington knows that members are purchased by lobby groups, such as Big Pharma, the military/security complex, agribusiness, energy, the Israel Lobby, and so on.

A corrupt or stupid Supreme Court legalized the purchase of the US government by lobby groups. This is the reason that Congress does not represent the people who elect Congress. You can blame your lack of representation squarely on the US Supreme Court. One can’t help but wonder if there were under the table payoffs. An uninformed person might answer that Menendez was paid personally, whereas campaign contributions are not personal money. But, in fact, retiring members are entitled to take their election war fund with them. Those planning to retire pay attention to building up their re-election funds. An uninformed person might say that Menendez’s payments came from a foreign government, whereas campaign contributions are coming from American interests.

But what about the vast sums that Israel pours into purchasing the US government? What is the difference between Egypt and Israel? The difference is that AIPAC is not required to register as foreign agent and is treated as an American lobby group. All efforts to have AIPAC register as a foreign agent have been blocked. Many Zionist neoconservatives have gotten away with accepting money from Israel without having to register as representing a foreign agent. Consider also that every year the Congress appropriates billions of dollars to Israel which Israel uses to purchase the US government with campaign contributions. Our own money is used to enslave us to Israel and Jewish interests. You can see how complete Israel’s ownership of the US government is by Congress’ invitation to Genocide Netanyahu to address the US Congress and award him 53 standing ovations while he conducts genocide against Palestine.

Generally speaking, when a senator or representative is prosecuted by the Justice (sic) Department it means someone wants him out of the way. It is unclear why Menendez was in the way. He was essential on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in getting the sanctions on Russia in place. It is unclear what he could have done for Egypt that would harm any of Washington’s interests. The sanctimonious judge Stein said: “The public cannot be led to the belief that you can get away with bribery, fraud, and betrayal.” The judge doesn’t know what he is talking about. Lobbies get away with bribing every member of the House and Senate every day. How can Trump make America Great Again when lobbies own the government?

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“Behind these histrionics by the big gators and peccaries of the collapsing Democratic Party is pure scintillating fear.”

• Six Ways From Sunday (Jim Kunstler)

Was it the miasma of cognitive dissonance blackening the air-space over the DC swamp that caused the deadly collision of AA Flight 5342 and a Blackhawk Helicopter this week — an impenetrable fog arising from the fetid exhalations of so many hyperventilating swamp creatures brooding between the urges of fight-or-flight as Mr. Trump deploys his chosen pest-controllers across the Potomac Basin? Altogether, these many parasitical swamp creatures make up the greater DC blob, and the blob convulsing and fibrillating is what you witness in these committee hearings with Bobby, Tulsi, and Kash. For instance, fake “progressive” Bernie Sanders (D-VT) faced with the reveal that he leads his colleagues in pharma “contributions” (just under $2-million) . . . or fake Cherokee Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) in a fugue state over the perceived threat of Mr. Kennedy to pharma profits . . . or presidential pardon recipient Adam Schiff (D-CA) lecturing Mr. Patel on ethical behavior. . . or Ms. Gabbard enduring the meltdown of Senate Intel Committee tool Michael Bennet (D-CO).

Behind these histrionics by the big gators and peccaries of the collapsing Democratic Party is pure scintillating fear. They are afraid that all of their hoaxes and lies of recent years will be exposed in the months ahead. And they fear that such exposure might lead eventually to legal complications for them. All of that implies loss-of-power, the single element that demonically drives their careers. The fact is they have already lost their grip on the levers of power and, for the moment, that is all that matters. They especially no longer control the Department of Justice, its subsidiary, the FBI, the many public health agencies under Health and Human Services, and the many-footed intel “community,” as it styles itself. These agencies are where the truth about our national affairs has been locked up.

Now, the citizens will either see what’s there, or find out what has been deliberately destroyed — such as the internal agency email correspondence over RussiaGate, the Covid-19 operation (and the deadly vaxx campaign), the J-6 affair (and the pipe-bomb sideshow), the weird, documented irregularities of the 2020 election, the Ukraine War money-laundering shenanigans, the manifold janky DOJ prosecutions of Mr. Trump, and much more. Every day now since January 20, heads explode all over DC as the executive orders roll out and the insanity of whatever lurked behind “Joe Biden” gets systematically expunged from the order of things. And as this happens, the more plainly deranged the past four years looks. Did they really believe that men dressing-up as women would improve the US military? Or was it a traitorous effort to weaken and demoralize our armed forces? Was DEI a public ethics exercise or a massive jobs program for incompetents?

In what way did “Joe Biden’s” Department of Homeland Security imagine that funneling known criminals, certified lunatics, and saboteurs across the border squared with their duty to protect and defend the country? And how did it happen that US taxpayers’ money got shelled out to fake “religious” NGOs in Mexico minting debit cards for border-jumpers, handing them wads of cash, cell phones, airplane tickets, fully-equipped backpacks, and apps for evading arrest? In effect these NGOs took over the exact job description of “coyote” formerly performed by the criminal cartels — leaving the cartels free for the more lucrative rackets of dealing fentanyl and trafficking women and children.

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Leave Bitcoin to the people.

• Trump is Not Going to Make US Into ‘Bitcoin Superpower’ (Sp.)

The 46th POTUS’ boasts about making the United States a global cryptocurrency powerhouse are likely just that, boasts, veteran financial analyst Paul Goncharoff tells Sputnik. The fact is that Trump is the president of the United States, “which governs the trust in, use, and control of the US dollar and not a trustless cryptocurrency like BTC, XRP, USDT, or USDC.” The US government establishing a “100% ownership and control” of a cryptocurrency, on the other hand, would simply “defeat the purpose of trustless crypto,” so the odds of a US dollar CBDC emerging anytime soon are pretty low. That said, there are no obstacles for the US government to hold crypto assets as part of its reserves – all it needs it proper legislation and congressional approval.

The loosening of crypto regulations expected under Trump, however, carries certain risks as “the clarity of what will be regulated is still missing” and “markets dislike uncertainty; it makes them jittery.” There is also “every chance” that, just like “with any other investable that comes under the influence of hype, reality, and again hype,” Trump’s actions would lead to a crypto bubble. For example, some crypto could be hyped as “the crypto of choice for classic institutional investors” and experience mass investment, only for the ensuing bubble to burst when “sobering fact of reality and the complex interaction of politics and finance make themselves known.”

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“..President Trump [..] has asked Elon Musk “to go get our astronauts stranded in orbit.” Musk responded: “will do.” Most likely it will be at his own expense..”

• Third World US Cannot Get Its Astronauts Home From Space (Paul Craig Roberts)

US Corporations, Universities, and government have driven America so deep into third world existence that Washington is incapable of rescuing its astronauts trapped in space for 200 days. Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams made what was supposed to be an eight day trip to the International Space Station and have been suck there for seven months because the United States is no longer sufficiently competent to bring them home. It was 55 years ago that Americans walked on the moon. In the years since, DEI universities have graduated ignorance instead of competence, US corporations have offshored American manufacturing and industrial capability, and a corrupt government has favored wars in behalf of Israel over everything else.

So the great, hegemonic, “superpower” cannot bring its astronauts home. Biden was too embarrassed to ask Putin to rescue the Americans. So President Trump, acknowledging America’s incapacity as a government, has asked Elon Musk “to go get our astronauts stranded in orbit.” Musk responded: “will do.” Most likely it will be at his own expense as Washington has spent its money financing Israel’s wars against Arabs and NATO’s war against Russia. To make America Great Again, a country run deep into the ground by scum Democrats, scum RINOs, scum presstitutes, and scum Woke leftwing sub-creatures, Trump has a huge task, one that scum Democrat and RINO Republican judges will try to block at every turn.” It is a fight to the death. If MAGA Americans are not prepared to fight to the death, they will lose.

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“..legally binding instruments for preventing an arms race in outer space, including tools to prohibit the deployment of space-based weapons..”

• Trump Wants To Revive ‘Star Wars’ – Zakharova (RT)

US President Donald Trump’s directive to create an American ‘Iron Dome’ missile defense system is a destabilizing step towards the weaponization of space, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova has said. Trump’s executive order to develop advanced missile defenses, issued earlier this week, authorizes the creation of “space-based interceptors,” among other things, the diplomat told reporters on Friday. “We see this as yet another confirmation of the US focus on turning space into an arena for armed confrontation, warfare, and the deployment of weapons,” Zakharova said.

This would “completely discredit” the previous US administration’s initiative to develop “certain norms, rules and principles” of behavior in space, and would violate the ban on testing direct-ascent and satellite-killer missiles, she added. Trump’s decisions “indicate Washington’s intention to actively develop and expand deeply destabilizing military programs,” Zakharova said, noting that it would expand missile defenses “to a scale comparable to Reagan’s ‘Star Wars’.” President Ronald Reagan had envisioned a missile shield as part of the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), a Cold War program nicknamed ‘Star Wars’ at the time. Reagan’s proposal touched off an arms race between the US and the Soviet Union.

The US never managed to develop the space-based weapons Reagan wanted, however, and the tensions eventually waned with the signing of several arms-control treaties. Washington has since abrogated almost all of them, including the ABM treaty banning strategic missile defenses to the INF treaty limiting short- and intermediate-range missiles in Europe. Trump’s program is “openly aimed” at devaluing the Russian and Chinese strategic deterrent, which “will not contribute to reducing tensions or improving the situation in the strategic sphere, including creating a basis for a fruitful dialogue on strategic armaments,” Zakharova said on Friday. Such dangerous ideas reinforce the importance of Russia’s proposals to create legally binding instruments for preventing an arms race in outer space, including tools to prohibit the deployment of space-based weapons, she added.

The January 27 executive order instructs the Pentagon to create a plan for protecting the US territory from “ballistic, hypersonic, advanced cruise missiles, and other next-generation aerial attacks from peer, near-peer, and rogue adversaries” using a multi-layered missile shield. Such an “Iron Dome” – a name borrowed from Israel’s short-range missile defense – would include the “development and deployment of proliferated space-based interceptors,” capable of shooting down incoming ballistic missiles during their boost phase, as well as unspecified “capabilities to defeat missile attacks prior to launch,” according to the text of the order.

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Who is stealing from whom?

• The US is Turning Into a Crybaby Empire (Sp.)

Washington seems to have developed a new habit — throwing tantrums whenever it falls behind. When did “American greatness” turn into nonstop whining?

‘Hostile’ BRICS dares to challenge ‘mighty US dollar’ US President Donald Trump has once again threatened BRICS countries with 100% tariffs if they dare to create a new currency — despite Russian President Vladimir Putin already clarifying that a unified BRICS currency isn’t even on the table.

DeepSeek: the latest ‘stolen’ US tech scandal Trump declared that the Chinese DeepSeek platform’s market success “should be a wake-up call for our industries that we need to be laser-focused on competing to win.” (Jan 28). His commerce secretary nominee, Howard Lutnick, immediately jumped in to claim that China’s powerful AI model was built on “stolen” US technology and advanced semiconductors. (Jan 29)

Hypersonic weapons: Russia ‘stole’ those too? Trump alleged — without evidence — that Russia “stole” US hypersonic missile designs during the Obama administration. (Jan 23) He made the same claim in 2020, again in 2023, and now, yet again in 2024. Moscow has consistently shredded and mocked these accusations.

China ‘stole’ American jobs Trump has repeatedly blamed China for “stealing” American manufacturing jobs. However, it was American companies that eagerly rushed to China in the 1980s after its economic reforms under Deng Xiaoping.

TikTok is bad… because it calls the shots “Essentially, with TikTok, I have the right to sell it or close it,” Trump declared on Jan 20. Washington has repeatedly tried to ban the popular Chinese social media app — which is used by at least one-third of US adults — and twist China’s arm to force the sale of TikTok’s US operations.

Read more …

 

 

 

 

DeepSeek

 

 

Hornbill

 

 

Tape
https://twitter.com/i/status/1885071149702287721

 

 

Duck support
https://twitter.com/i/status/1885140945395765688

 

 

Herds
https://twitter.com/i/status/1884996373067472967

 

 

ATGB
https://twitter.com/i/status/1885069255374147648

 

 

 

 

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