Jul 122015
 July 12, 2015  Posted by at 2:32 pm Finance Tagged with: , , , ,

DPC On the beach, Coney Island 1907

Too many voices the past few days are all pointing the same way, and I’ve always thought that is never good. A guessing-based consensus, jumping to conclusions and all that. Look, it’s fine if you don’t have all the answers, no matter how nervous it makes you.

What I’m referring to in this instance is the overwhelming conviction that Greece and Tsipras have conceded, given in to the Troika, flown a white flag, you get the drift. But guys, the battle ain’t over yet.

So here’s an alternative scenario, purely hypothetically (but so in essence is the white flag idea, always got to wait for the fat lady), and for entertainment purposes only. Let ‘er rip:

Tsipras, first through holding a referendum, and then through delivering a proposal that at first sight looked worse than what the Troika provided before the referendum, has managed a number of things.

First, his domestic support base has solidified. That’s what the referendum confirmed once more. Second, he’s given the Troika members, plus the various nations that think they represent them, something that was sure from the moment he sent it to them: a way to divide and rule and conquer the lot.

Tsipras has set the IMF versus the EU versus the ECB. Schäuble snapped at Draghi last night: ”Do you hold me for a fool?” Germany itself is split too, Merkel and Schäuble are at odds. Germany and France don’t see eye to eye anymore. The US doesn’t see eye to eye with any party involved.

Italy is about to tell Germany to stop its shenanigans and get a deal done. The True Finns may get to decide the entire shebang, with less than 1 million rabid voters calling the shots for 320 million eurozone inhabitants.

From that point of view, Tsipras has done a great job at playing the other side of the table off against each other. So much so, it doesn’t even have to have been intentional, and it still works out great. He’s exposed the entire EU structure as a bag of bones, let alone a naked emperor.

Moreover, imagine this also purely hypothetical and for entertainment purposes only notion: maybe Tsipras has known forever that for Greece to stay inside the eurozone was a losing proposition. But he never had the mandate. Well, after Schäuble’s antics last night, that mandate has come a lot closer. And it’s not even just in Greece either.

And he may not even need such a mandate: Schäuble may do the job for him. If Tsipras pokes him just a little more, he’ll throw such a hissyfit that Alexis will be able to get Greece out of the euro without carrying the blame himself. And get money for the effort. Lots of money.

And that’s not all: he’ll sow division in the ranks to such an extent that the whole EU won’t survive. How can Schäuble stay in his post after this? How can Draghi? He’s shown them all, for the whole world to see, to be nothing but hot air bags of bones. Their entire credibility is shot to bits.

What’s coming out now in the western press are little factoids like Draghi was vice chairman and managing director of Goldman Sachs International when those infamous swaps were arranged through the bank, that allowed Greece to hide its debt and be eligible for euro membership, and that have already cost the country $5 billion down the road so far.

And that Schäuble accepted 100,000 marks from Canadian/German arms lobbyist Karlheinz Schreiber in 1999, a move that brought down both Helmut Kohl and Schäuble himself, clearing the way for…drumroll… Angela Merkel. Case has never been entirely solved, no charges were laid against Kohl or Schäuble.

If that’s what Tsipras was aiming for, great. But even if he wasn’t, consciously, still great. The Troika is finished and will never be the same. Nor will the EU. Sometimes all you have to do is make someone so mad they’ll blow up, just find the right trigger point.

And it’s not as if I didn’t warn about this. On the eve of the referendum, I said:

With Yanis Gone, Now Troika Heads Must Roll

It’s time for the Troika to seek out some real men too. It cannot be that the winner leaves and all the losers get to stay. The attempts to suppress the IMF debt sustainability analysis were a shameful attempt to mislead the people of Greece, and of Europe as a whole. And don’t forget the US: Lagarde operates out of Washington. It cannot be that after this mockery of democracy, these same people can just remain where they are.

It’s time for Europe to show the same democratic heart that Varoufakis has shown this morning. And if that doesn’t happen, all Europeans should make sure to leave the European Union as quickly as they can. Because that would prove once and for all that the EU is no more than a cheap facade, a thin veil behind which something pretty awful tries to hide its ugly face.

But you know, these people think they’re untouchable. They’re not, and Tsipras has exposed that. Not bad for a weekend’s work.

I hear a lot of talk about regime change, and all the Greek opposition leaders being invited to Brussels. But a party that has a solid and rising approval rating and support base is not easy to topple. I think the regime change will have to take place on the other side of the negotiating table (Tsipras will shuffle some seats, but that’s all he needs to do).

From my purely hypothetical and for entertainment purposes only scenario, Tsipras has set the perfect trap for the other side of the table. He’s driving them apart, setting them off against each other, putting them into incompatible positions, and making the positions of quite a few of them untenable.

This is no longer about saving Greece, it’s about saving the entire European edifice. And that is a losing battle, certainly as long as the assclowns are involved that have run the show up to now.

As hypothetical as this all may be, I think perhaps it’s a good idea to give Alexis Tsipras a bit more of the benefit of the doubt.

Home Forums Tsipras Invites Schäuble To Fall Into His Own Sword

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    DPC On the beach, Coney Island 1907 Too many voices the past few days are all pointing the same way, and I’ve always thought that is never good. A gue
    [See the full post at: Tsipras Invites Schäuble To Fall Into His Own Sword]


    Excellent! I’m sending this around.


    Excelent Article!!!


    Sorry Illargi, i think your hypothesis is a bit of stretch.

    I think you’ve invested too much into Tspiras as a character. You must remember that this man is a politician and power isnt know to generally attract people with principles that are unbreaking. There are of course exceptions but theyre very rare.

    Im gonna sit on the fence of this issue until the dust settles but my inital reading of the situation is that Tsipras has folded. Whether the corrupt maniancs in Europe end up self destructing anyway remains to be seen…but i guess its all speculation at this point.
    The truth will reveal itself soon enough.


    I’m with you on this Ilargi,

    The recent comments on many websites about then being obvious double agents for the elite because of their personal backgrounds may be written by shills or those who are invested in their idea of hopelessness and cannot connect to anything else.

    I don’t see Tsipras or YV as double agents or capitulators, As far as I can see, SYRIZA’s actions have a logical consistency and have caused far too much dislocation and damage to the TROIKA and the EU to be any kind of double agents. If Tsipras and his team do capitulate (rather than bait and trap and divide the TROIKA members) it will IMO be under extreme duress, the like of which the TROIKA have been trying to apply and have so far been unsuccessful. They are the real deal.


    If Tsipras had folded in the comfort zone of the TROIKA, would we see Schäuble and the others at such odds with each other?Iit seems to me that they have been pushed by the Greeks past the point of cohesion. If it was an easy negotiation for them then the TROIKA members could probably have held their noses and kept their differences private, that is unless they were always hopelessly fractured and it has only just become apparent.

    Ken Barrows

    IMO, Tsipras and all other Greek politicians are useless if they don’t acknowledge the End of More. I do realize it would be difficult to remain a Greek politician after making that admission.

    John Day

    Tsipras keeps showing up. Woody Allen said 90% of life is showing up.
    That might be the case here.
    The Troika wolves expected to have Greece all carved up and consumed well before today.
    They are hungry, frustrated wolves, and they are still waiting for their dinner.
    I really think that “whatever it takes” to keep stringing this process out is pretty good for revealing reality. The reality is that this expanding-debt-based financial project is coming to it’s inevitable ugly end soon.


    Brilliant analysis. I think you’ve hit the nail on the head. YV and Tsipras are great game players. And you have articulated exactly what I was getting a glimmering of as I read about Schauble. He finally exploded.

    This has been a real news line (unlike most msm news) and I’ve been following it through your posts. (Many thanks again for your blog!) I love the way I just have to laugh at how these guys are playing it. I bet Putin has been watching closely, as he is quite the chess player.


    Interesting thought for sure and I do hope your close to being right. The spin on other sites is they have no plan B on how to get money to the citizens and everyone should be scared. Michel Hudson pointed out it would be easy to do electronic IOU and could be done it just a few days. It worked in Calif. no reason it can’t work there. The main thing here to use no western bank for this. In fact throw out not only the eu but nato at the same time for a slap in Amerikas neo-conn face. They all have over played the hand.

    The Russians announced today as soon as the BS stops they would send much need fuel and the BRICs said they would help.

    Thanks for your updates from Greece.


    What we DO know at this point; is that Varoufakis is laughing his nether portions off right now! He is SO glad he is not in the focal point of this big magnifying glass – now burning all the ants in view. He can, today anyway, sit on the sidelines and grin. And I’ll guarantee he’s grinning like crazy. 🙂 And good for him.


    I posted a link to this blog post on an eco-socialist e-list and got a response from a local guy I don’t really know. He sent me 2 alternate views of events.(I don’t happen to agree that your view is just wishful thoughts, but a real game-master view.)
    ‘This is wishful thinking. The first responsibility of any workers’ leader is to maintain the morale of his or her troops. Tsipras’s memorandum has confused (at best) a huge swath of the Greek workers. Here is a report on that from inside Greece. And here are some thoughts on a program that could stand as an alternative to the surrender of the “red lines” which Tsipras had promised he would not cross.’

    Report From Greece
    Posted on July 8, 2015 by oaklandsocialist
    “This report is about the economical, political and social situation in Greece. I ‘m 26 years old unemployed Greek and I am member of Xekinima – CWI (Committee of a Workers International) which campaigned along with other left groups in Greece and with SYRIZA for the “NO” vote in last Sunday’s referendum.”
    [more] https://oaklandsocialist.com/2015/07/08/report-from-greece-2/

    Here are some interesting questions he has about what’s going on in Greece.

    Greece: Some Thoughts for a Program
    Posted on July 12, 2015 by oaklandsocialist
    “In every struggle of working class people, clear goals – also known as a program – are necessary. Without that, the struggle inevitably gets led down dead-end streets or into a swamp that only the capitalists can benefit from. From outside, the best socialists can do is raise some thoughts. We hope these bear discussing inside the workers’ movement there.”
    [more] https://oaklandsocialist.com/2015/07/12/greece-some-thoughts-for-a-program/

    Ilargi, perhaps you can float some of these ideas/questions by some of your contacts. there.


    I would like to believe that Tspiras has a Plan B. If Varoufakis can now say that Germany wanted to push Greece out all along, then there is no excuse for the failure to make emergency plans. However, the word from all sources, MSM or otherwise, sympathetic to Syriza or otherwise, is that there is no Plan B. If that’s true, Tspiras is no hero. He’s incompetent. I hope I am wrong. I hope there is a secret plan. But I am not holding my breath.

    Oracle of Delphi

    Pretty naive hypothesis… The notion that at Grexit Greece will get “lots of money” is false. And, by the way, have you taken the time to read IMF’s report yourself? Or like most of the commentators, you just go by what newspapers’ headlines say? I fear it is the latter… The nuances make a difference.

    George P

    Actually, Tsipras capitulated and slowly reveals his intent in leading a coalition of a pro-European center-left (i.e. neo-lib) parties and possibly leave Syriza or try to transform it. He gave everything to “keep Greece into Europe” and himself into power. Which indicates that the Referendum was a sham; people like me where fooled into voting something he never intended to win or use for Greece, or even supported much. When the Ochi (No) unexpectedly won (with a huge margin) despite the polls and all odds, the first thing he did was to meet with all his political opponents and ask for their forgiveness, in what we all though was an insane political move. But it makes sense now: He wanted to step down all along and make everybody co-conspirators into what is none other than the hostile take-over of Greece. When he failed to make the voters say Yes to that, he fired Varoufakis and met with all the pro-austerity party leaders and allied with them “for the common good” and went on begging for money. He even claims he fought hard against the insane Germans and he reached a “decent” agreement and he should be the hero of the day for that. I beg to differ, he just abolished the Hellenic Republic. There is no decency in this. Maybe treachery? But who notices such trivial things! Move along folks! Nothing to see here! Just the battered body of a country!

    Cui bono? Well, bad boy Wolfy just won a big something, also. He tricked everyone, by acting as a much darker, deranged version of Varoufakis, threatening to blow up the negotiations in every step. And do you know why? Here is where the plot thickens! Enter KfW, the German bank who’s CEO is none other than… Wolfgang Schauble (talk about a conflict of interest, folks!). KfW is one of the main contributors to the Institute for Growth, the mysterious Luxemburg based fund that will manage some 50 billion of Greek public assets under the new agreement and will keep them as collateral, in case the villainous Greeks try to rebel. Well, not directly. There will be a new Greek fund, other than the current government-controlled HRADF, which I’ll bet will be controlled by the Institute for Growth and KfW, who will be either the majority holders in the Board of Directors or make some of them see the light. You know, just to mask things a little bit. Not bad, is it? All he has to do now is drive the puny Greeks crazy and rebelling over the most insane austerity ever imposed and the titles for 50 billion are delivered to his second office in Luxemburg by courier. Added bonus, he sticks it to the US and NATO (i.e. “Germany’s occupiers”), if Greeks switch sides out of necessity. What did he say back in the 1990’s, over crocodile tears? “I am sorry! I’m so sorry, I won’t do it again!!!” Well, he just did. <Wink!>

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