Oct 022015
 October 2, 2015  Posted by at 3:01 pm Finance Tagged with: , , , , , ,

NPA Fifth Avenue at W. 54th Street 1954

There’s so much negative real bad economic and financial news out there that it’s hard to choose a ‘favorite’, but I guess I’m going to have to go with what underlies and ‘structures’ it all, the IIF stating that for the first time since 1988 and the Reagan presidency, there’s more money flowing out of emerging markets than there’s flowing in. That is for sure a watershed moment.

And no, that trend is not going to be reversed either anytime soon. Emerging economies, even if they wouldn’t include China -but they do-, have relied exclusively on selling ‘stuff’ to the rich world which combined cheap commodities with cheap labor, and now they see their customer base shrink rapidly just as they were preparing to harvest the big loot.

Now, I hope I can be forgiven for thinking from the get-go that this was always a really dumb model. That emerging nations would provide the cheap labor, and the west would kill of its manufacturing base and turn into a service economy.

This goes very predictably wrong if and when we figure out that A) economies that don’t manufacture anything can’t buy much of anything, and B) that we can sell those services our economies are ‘producing’ only to ourselves, as long as the emerging nations maintain a low enough pay model to make their products worth our while to import.

It makes one wonder how many 6 year-olds would NOT be able to figure this out. In the same vein, how many of them would be hard put to understand that our economies, overwhelmed by, and drowning in, debt, cannot be rescued by more debt? Here’s thinking the sole reason so many of us don’t get it is that we’ve been told it’s terribly hard to grasp, and you need a 10-year university course to ‘get it’.

I see a bad US jobs report coming in as we speak, and that’s not really saying much of anything. The damage not only runs far deeper than those massaged reports, it’s also already been done ages ago. Non-farm employment reports are Brooklyn Bridge-for-sale territory.

We’d all be much better off looking at the $11-13 trillion in ‘value’ lost from global equity markets in Q3. Or, for that matter, at Goldman’s statement that, and I’m only slightly paraphrasing here, only companies buying up their own stocks could save the S&P 500 for 2015.

Think about it: we don’t make much of anything anymore, and what we do make hardly anybody wants to buy, so we issue debt and buy it up ourselves. This may well be presented as a clever ‘investment’ model, but I aks of you: how much closer to eating our own excrements are we comfortable getting?

Stock buybacks can have strategic advantages in specific circumstances in healthy economies, but massive buybacks on the back of too-cheap credit/debt is not one of those circumstances. It’s desperation writ very large.

One other article that stuck out, because it brings into the bright shining limelight the longtime Automatic Earth assertion that we are headed for a disastrous “multiple claims to underlying real wealth”, is Paul Brodsky’s piece served by Tyler Durden. It has far more value than any alleged jobs article, because it describes the real world, not some distorted fantasy:

There Are Five Times More Claims On Dollars As Dollars In Existence

[..] the data show plainly there are five times as many claims for US dollars as US dollars in existence. Does this matter to investors? Well, yes, it matters a lot. Not only is there not enough money to repay outstanding debt; the widening gap between credit and money is making it more difficult to service the debt and more difficult for nominal US GDP to grow through further credit extension and debt assumption.

Remember, only a dollar can service and repay dollar-denominated debt. Principal and interest payments cannot be made with widgets or labor, only dollars. This means that future demand and output growth generated through more credit issuance and debt assumption is self-defeating. In fact, it adds to the problem.

[..] the value of dollar-denominated assets is not supported by the money with which it is ostensibly valued. This has not been a problem historically because the proportion of un-reserved credit has been low relative to asset values and cash flow. As we are seeing today, however, it is becoming a significant problem because balance sheets are already highly levered and zero-bound interest rates chokes off the incentive to refinance asset prices higher.

If the total value of US denominated assets is, say, $100 trillion, and the US dollar money stock is somewhere around $12 trillion, then the inescapable implication is that the market’s expects either: a) $88 trillion more US dollars will be created in the future to fund the purchase of the gross asset pool at current valuations; b) there has to be a decline in the nominal value of aggregate assets, or; c) both.

The US is not going to ‘create’ $88 trillion. More debt cannot solve this. And so the only option available is a huge decline in asset ‘values’. ‘Values’ that have been grossly distorted for years now, and which we all could have known can’t be kept from falling back to earth indefinitely.

Just this morning, we saw 3 other key indicators all point way down. That’s not in itself peculiar or anything, what’s peculiar is that it’s taken so long for people to figure out which way the wind blows. And I betcha, most still won’t get it. Because they’re all exclusively looking for signs of a recovery.

They’ve been looking for 8 years or so now, and there’s always some piece of data that can be found to feed the blinders, but it’s all been nonsense for 8 years running. Your economy, my economy, and the global economy, can and will not recover, and certainly not as long as more debt is injected in our already insanely overindebted financial systems.

You can’t fight historically unequaled amounts of debt with even more debt. But yeah, well, that’s the only trick our pony can think of. Those 3 key indicators -and there’s more where they came from- are the Guardian Gauge: ‘Destruction Of Wealth’ Warning Looms Over Stocks, the Global Dow: Key Global Equity Index Has Fallen Off The Precipice and the IIF’s take on net capital flows for global emerging markets I started out with, Is This The Mother Of All Warnings On Emerging Markets?

I don’t want to make this another of those endless articles, but do click the links, and do read up on each of them. And then shiver. Have a stiff drink. Unless you’re still looking for a recovery. And let’s not forget, yes, it’s true that massive stock buybacks in the US, Europe, perhaps even China, as well as more QE to infinity and beyond, may save a bunch of numbers and you might be sitting pretty yet under the yuletide tree.

But the simplest of principles stands no matter what: there’s no way out of this that doesn’t lead through the exact kind of massive debt deleveraging that all governments and central banks are ostensibly trying desperately to prevent. And which will make the debt deflation, certainly after 8 years of trying to push the 180º opposite way, epic and monumental.

On the bright side: at least if you would have read the Automatic Earth through those past 8 years, you would have known and hopefully been prepared for that debt deflation. It’s not as if it’s something new or unexpected, not around here.

$13 trillion in market losses in just one quarter would be very hard to make up for even in very favorable circumstances. We have no such circumstances. We’ve built our very lives on squeezing China et al for 27 years, and issuing more debt as if there’s no tomorrow -sort of a self-fulfilling prophecy-, and now we’ve belatedly realized that there’s a time limit on that model.

But hey, by all means, it’s your money, and it’s your life, so do keep on betting on that recovery, and the return to ‘normal’, whatever that once was. Put it all on red. Go crazy! You do risk becoming a lonely crowd though. Meanwhile, those of us down here with our feet planted in the real earth have just this one question: “How bad can this get, and how fast?”.

Home Forums How Bad Can This Get, And How Fast?

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    NPA Fifth Avenue at W. 54th Street 1954 There’s so much negative real bad economic and financial news out there that it’s hard to choose a ‘favorite’,
    [See the full post at: How Bad Can This Get, And How Fast?]

    Ken Barrows

    Am I the only one who cannot listen to anything said by the Federal Reserve with a straight face?

    Heather Whitney

    I’m not sure how emerging markets will affect the economy and why they are so important–would you mind briefly explaining to this novice?

    Thanks in advance


    “But the simplest of principles stands no matter what: there’s no way out of this that doesn’t lead through the exact kind of massive debt deleveraging that all governments and central banks are ostensibly trying desperately to prevent.”

    The only politically expedient way out of this is destruction of the Fed’s own currency. It’s baked in the cake. Asset prices may fall in real value in this process, but not in nominal terms. This is a sort of democracy, and there are elections to tend to.

    Federal Reserve Note Credit holders, as well as the holders of most any “Security” will be washed away.

    Federal Reserve Notes = Instruments of confiscation, through the stealth taxation of devaluation.

    Bonds= Instruments of confiscation by the same process.

    Asking a Central Bank to stand for deflation/revaluation is asking it to stand aside and close up shop. Along with the political machine that enables it.

    Even FDR resorted to devaluation during the “Big One”

    So, real “assets” are those items that preserve purchasing power through financial turmoil better than any other means of maintaining it. The antithesis of Federal Reserve credit (green backs) and Bonds.

    Unless one believes TPTB will do the right thing and impose the ultimate form of austerity, by allowing the system to purge itself through mass default, (Fat Chance!) it might be prudent to consider trading ones debt holdings (Federal Reserve Notes) for anything one may perceive to be useful, after the backer of said funny money drowns in an ocean of it.


    Ken, I can relate, especially following the Feds revelation that all those who have fallen out of the workforce don’t want a job 😉

    Kinda like saying all those in a depression clinic don’t want to get better?


    Although the sagacity of a 10-year-old is one viewing angle, another is simply that economics is bad science but brilliant politics (for some). The question our elites and comprador managers have stopped asking is what is good for economies, or one’s particular nation over all. Some time back, the basic compact that Ralston Saul mention in Voltaire’s Bastards that the technocracy was assuming control from the aristocracy in the interests of the nation has been abrogated. The technocracy has returned to serving an aristocracy or plutonomy–this has been a cluster**ck but one in which some, those driving the parade, have made out like bandits, and we can only assume they think they have enough private security and walled compounds to dominate the chaos that ensues. It’s not just that the US has destroyed its labour force, middle-class, manufacturing base, but even its critical arms-manufacturing infrastructure.

    Put otherwise, those that profit from the offshoring of manufacturing are not necessarily the ones who profit from arms manufacture, who are not necessarily the ones who profit from maintaining US critical infrastructure, who are not necessarily the ones who profit from debt, There’s overlap but apparently little overall strategy among these parasitic profit-takers.

    That anyone is still doing anything for the long-term benefit of anything so broad as a nation, civilization, or species seems increasingly implausible.


    I know, I’m cluttering up the board again, but need to say this,,,and I believe it’s the way they think;

    “There are 5 times more claims on dollars as dollars in existence” ??

    ‘Simple solution, create 5 times more dollars.’ Gramma Janet

    There could ultimately be as many FRN’s created as there are electrons, but that’s getting into “Quantum” physics,,,and monetary policy.



    “Princes and governments are far more dangerous than other elements within society.”
    Machievelli, surprisingly enough.

    It only follows that the more revered and bigger, the more dangerous.

    Heather Whitney

    Thanks Professor


    “There are 5 times more claims on dollars as dollars in existence”

    Perhaps you are not nearly psychopathic “enough” to understand the way the syndicate thinks. 5 fold excess claims is equally 5 fold excess claimants. Eliminating claimants eliminates claims. The continuity of money power, is entangled with global conflict.
    War is a great way to solve MANY problems simultaneously.
    -Continuity of money monopoly
    -Command and control of essentials (Energy, food, etc.)
    -Elimination of rivals
    -Demand Destruction (infrastructure destruction, depopulation, economic etc.)
    -Depopulation (There is an incentive to get rid of BILLIONS)
    -Efficiency of war time economy (All fat is cut off socio-economic system)
    -Unification of a fractured society against an external enemy
    -Elimination of political rivals and dissidents (martial law)
    -Complete control of media and propaganda
    – etc… (List goes on and on)

    Sympathetic, empathetic altruists do not see war as a legitimate problem solving strategy. For this, they can never lay claim to a big picture perspective.

    This domain is defined by the selfish competition for limited, highly leveraged, mutually exclusive shares of biocapacity in a zero sum game. This domain is defined by conflict.

    To the least losers go the spoils.


    In regard to capitalism, capital is the ultimate “weapon”. Those who have capital become the victors and those who don’t become the slaves. Permitting the free flow of capital worldwide allowed the Predator class to pillage the whole world. This is what so-called free trade really is: the ability to shift capital with no boundaries.

    The criminals that advocated for free trade should be thrown in prison. Or worse.


    Even that is not my question. My only interest is how far along the process we already are.


    The controllers of the Federal Reserve control the most asset-money and the debt-paper.
    The false narrative is that the controllers of the Federal Reserve are going to decrease the wealth of **themselves** in order to bail out those they’ve criminally impoverished through a fraudulent debt-based monetary system.
    Let’s say the claims are 5x the actual wealth. The trick is for the Debt-Money Monopolists, the people who set-up and control the Federal Reserve System, to gain control over most of the assets by WIPING OUT THE EXCESS MUPPET CLAIMS ON SAID ASSETS.
    This is what they’ve done 100% of the time previously. They did it in Argentina. They did it in Germany after WWI. Sure, they teach you both those events were hyperinflations, BUT THEY WERE DEFLATIONS AND DEBT-MONEY MONOPOLIST ASSET STRIPPING OPERATIONS FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF THE DEBT-MONEY MONOPOLISTS THAT CONTROL THE FEDERAL RESERVE.
    To bet against the outcome that favors the controllers of the Federal Reserve with 0% historical implementation is not a rational bet.


    It could get really bad in twenty or thirty years….

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