Oct 062022
 
 October 6, 2022  Posted by at 5:34 pm Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , ,



Ivan Aivazovsky Palace rains in Venice by moonlight 1878

 

 

Vladimir Putin has just about finalized the accession of the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics (DPR and LPR), plus the Kherson and Zaporozhye Regions, into the Russian state. This is a peace offer, even if precious few will recognize it as such. Putin was never eager to make this move, it took him 8 years to recognize the independence of DPR and LPR, but it was the only solution left.

As State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin put it this week: “..accession to Russia is the only way to save the people living in the four former Ukrainian territories from shelling by Ukrainian troops. “The only way to end this is reunification [with Russia].” Obviously, Ukraine and the west label the accession, and the referendums that “solidified” it, illegal, but it’s not under Russian law, and that is what counts for Putin.

After the votes, the situation was scrutinized by Russian Constitutional Court, the Duma, every institution that Russian law requires. Not perhaps international law, whatever that is, but why would Russia bother with that? How, for instance, does “international law” view the killing of 14,000+ Russians living in Ukraine since 2014, by Ukrainian forces?

The US-driven Maidan coup, where an elected president was ousted, in violation of “international law”, is a place to start. The ill-begotten hodge-podge patchwork state of Ukraine was always an accident waiting to happen. Cramming people together into a state who don’t like each other historically, has never been a bright idea. But since for 70 years or so, Ukraine was just a piece of the Soviet Union, there was a kind of peace for that time.

That changed when the wall came down and the Soviet Union dissolved. In the first decade or so after that, everyone was too busy taking care of themselves -especially the oligarchs and CIA agents in the country. But when the dust was settled, Putin was leader of Russia, and he prevented the US from taking over Ukraine -and much more.

This map that Elon Musk reposted a few days ago shows what we already know, that Ukraine as a country was a crazy idea. You can’t have that kind of division and expect a very long time to thrive. In 2012, Yanukovich was democratically elected, he had more votes, and in 2014, Nuland, McCain et al decided they did not like that.

 

 

Here’s a video of Petro Poroshenko, the chocolate prince who became the 2nd president, talking about the Russian speaking people in the east. For western Ukraine, they were little more than cattle. But there were more of them than of western Ukrainians, so a coup was needed. No problem for Nuland, but a problem for Putin. Russia protects Russians, wherever they live. Watch the English subtitles.

This is why Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24 2022, that and the increasing threat of NATO-allied troops and equipment on the border. And said: no nukes, no NATO, no nazis. Of course, the nazis still have Zelensky under control, reneging on his campaign promise to seek peace, NATO moved close than ever, and boy, would they love to get their hands on some nukes.

And that is why Putin decided to take over the 4 regions. It was the only way he saw to protect the Russian people living there. He was, and is, probably right.

Now, Ukraine and Zelensky claim there is a history that makes all of present day Ukraine a state with solid borders, culture, language etc., but it was only in 1922, 100 years ago, that the borders were drawn, under Soviet leadership, and, as I said, it was just a patchwork thing. There is a Ukrainian history, but it’s on a much smaller piece of land than what is today touted as Ukraine.

 

 

So, sorry, but there’s not much there. Russia, and Putin, were happy to have Ukraine as a friendly neighbor, they’re all Russians in a broad sense anyway, but not as a country that hosts nazis, NATO and perhaps nukes.

Now that the 4 regions have been declared part of Russia, there is no way back. Zelensky may have big words about taking lost territory back, including Crimea, but to do that, he would have to beat the no. 1 nuclear power in the world. And that is Putin’s peace offer: we’ve taken those parts of your country where you were shelling Russians, and you can have the rest of it, provided you don’t use it to threaten us, and “us” also means the 4 regions.

You may today have troops in a region that is considered Ukrainian, but it is now no longer that. It is Russian. And that is completely different from shelling people on your own territory. Add to that, that Europe is getting de-industrialized, and frozen, and hungry, and you should all ask yourselves if perhaps somewhere in this process you went off the rails. You can apply another 10 rounds of sanctions, but those also will hurt you more than us.

Russia is betting a safe bet: that the people currently in charge in the west, no longer will be when the winter is over. There will be some, but most will be thrown out by the people they failed when they bet on beating Russia with untold billions of funds provided to those in charge of the most corrupt country in Europe. Instead of their own citizens.

And as for the recent advances of the Ukraine/NATO army in the 4 regions: all those troops now find themselves on Russian territory. Which is exactly what everyone tried to prevent. Russia let them go for a while, and withdrew its troops, waiting for the territory to become Russian. And now it is.

Basically, Putin’s peace offer is: we have what we needed, now leave us alone. You know very well you can’t beat us, so let’s sit down and talk.

 

 

 

We try to run the Automatic Earth on donations. Since ad revenue has collapsed, you are now not just a reader, but an integral part of the process that builds this site. Thank you for your support.

 

 

Support the Automatic Earth in virustime with Paypal, Bitcoin and Patreon.

 

Home Forums Putin Made a Peace Offer. Take it.

Viewing 18 posts - 1 through 18 (of 18 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #117852

    Ivan Aivazovsky Palace rains in Venice by moonlight 1878     Vladimir Putin has just about finalized the accession of the Donetsk and Lugans
    [See the full post at: Putin Made a Peace Offer. Take it.]

    #117856
    TAE Summary
    Participant

    A Tale of Two Narratives, Ukraine Edition, Updated
    * The Mainstream Narrative
    – Vladimir Putin is an evil autocrat who has turned Russia into a fascist state. Putin has more or less ruined Russia
    – Under Vladimir Putin Russia meddled in the US 2016 election and helped get Donald Trump elected
    – The 2014 color revolution in Ukraine was democracy in action and rid the country of a leader who was a Russian puppet.
    – The Russian Special Military Operation was an unprovoked attack on Ukraine
    – Nothing Ukraine or the west could have done would have stopped the unprovoked Russian attack
    – Russia attacked Ukraine because it wants to expand its empire to that of the Soviet Union and beyond
    – The Ukrainians are willing to negotiate but the Russians are not
    – The Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions and Crimea belong to Ukraine and under no circumstances should be part of Russia. The referendum was a sham and not a true representation of the will of the people should not be used as an excuse for Russia to annex the regions.
    – Russia has weaponized their natural resources and has caused massive economic damage in Europe. They blew up the Nordstream pipelines to prove they are ruthless and will stop at nothing, even nuclear weapons.
    – The US and Europe are morally obligated to support the effort of Ukraine to expel the Russians by giving them advanced weapons systems. The Ukrainians shouldn’t stop until they have regained all territory including Crimea.
    – Russia cannot be trusted, period
    – Russia is losing the war in Ukraine and will have to accept total defeat and terms of peace dictated by Ukraine and the west
    – If Russia loses it will be the end of the Russian Federation. If Ukraine loses it will be the end of US dollar denominated hegemony
    – The risk of a nuclear war is terrifying and if it happens Russia will be mostly to blame.

    * The Counter Narrative
    – Vladimir Putin is a Christian and a patriot who has kept Russia out of the clutches of oligarchs and transnational-corporations. He has more or less saved Russia
    – Russia had little effect on the US 2016 election. The reports of Russian election meddling are fabricated misinformation.
    – The US and the CIA engineered the Ukraine color revolution in 2014 overthrowing the democratically elected government of Ukraine replacing it with a western puppet
    – The Russian Special Military Operation was in response to multiple provocation including the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO and the shelling of the Donbas region
    – If Russian demands that Ukraine never join NATO and that the Donbas region have relative autonomy had been met the Russians would not have invaded Ukraine
    – Russia’s main goal is to keep NATO forces from its borders.
    – The Russians are willing to negotiate but the Ukrainians are not
    – The Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions and Crimea were historically part of Russia and it is reasonable for them to be part of Russia again. The referendum was a reasonable way to judge the will of the people in the Donbas region though perhaps it should be repeated under UN control. Annexing the Russian speaking parts of Ukraine should be accepted and used as a foundation for peace.
    – US and EU sanctions of Russia have caused a disruption of energy flows from Russia to Europe and are responsible for massive economic damage in Europe. The Nordstream pipelines were most likely sabotaged by the US or one its proxies so that Germany would not be dependent on Russia for energy.
    – The US and Europe are prolonging the war by supporting Ukraine with advanced weapons systems. They don’t really care about Ukraine and are using the conflict as a proxy war to destroy Russia
    – The US and Europe cannot be trusted, period
    – Ukraine is losing the war and will be forced to accept terms of peace dictated by the Russians
    – If Russia loses it will be the end of the Russian Federation. If Ukraine loses it will be the end of US dollar denominated hegemony
    – The risk of a nuclear war is terrifying and if it happens the US and Europe will be mostly to blame

    #117858
    Afewknowthetruth
    Participant

    One way or another, it’s all getting very close to the end.

    #117859
    redshift
    Participant

    I disagree, Ukraine has not been demilitarised enough yet. A peace deal now brings thinks back to where they were with the exception that the Donbass would no longer be under attack. Ukraine has to be dwarfed to such an extent that the US gets their hands off the country, only then can there be lasting peace.

    #117861
    Afewknowthetruth
    Participant

    “Sizable US forces acting on the ground in Ukraine.”

    “We [US] are at war with Russia.”

    All of ‘Oceania’ is at war with ‘Eurasia’, of course.

    #117862
    Afewknowthetruth
    Participant

    Correction: ‘Oceania’ is at war with the rest of the world.

    #117864
    Germ
    Participant
    #117869
    Redneck
    Participant

    To commenters,
    I can post links here just fine but I can’t attach a file , any tips on fixing that?

    #117870
    boscohorowitz
    Participant

    You’ll probably have to use a hosting site. I use this dumb old blog I’ve had forever. For example:

    Silly

    #117877
    upstateNYer
    Participant

    TAE Summary: excellent, as always. 🙂

    Germ: thank you for the link. Listening now.

    redshift: “I disagree … Ukraine has to be dwarfed to such an extent that the US gets their hands off the country …” Interesting take. I’ll keep this in mind. Time will tell.

    #117881
    Afewknowthetruth
    Participant

    Towards the end of this this talk, Andrei Martyanov describes Poseidon, the most formidable submarine weapon ever constructed. Not by the US or UK, of course but by you know who. Apparently now ready for combat operation if required.

    #117884
    Afewknowthetruth
    Participant

    More evidence that something very big is coming.

    #117885
    VietnamVet
    Participant

    The Goths and Vandals homeland is Ukraine. The Balkans are the cradle of war.

    History does more than rhyme. The past puts us in the place where we are today with the things, people and society around us. “The past is not even past.” Old, unhinged, autocratic, ideologies that grab others’ wealth are still very much with us. An Empire creates its own reality that the minions must believe if they are to be Insiders.

    But the truth intrudes. Isolated in suburbia, tomorrow is an energy saving day with the highs reaching the mid-70s. Chip-maker AMD stock crashed and rebounded halfway on its failure to meet expectations by billions of dollars because the PC & IT industries have crashed. Gasoline costs are rising and OPEC is cutting production. The USA is in the same position it was in the energy crises of the 1970s except with no undeveloped cheap petroleum fields remaining to be developed. Russia does have reserves and with Saudi Arabia joining the Russia China Axis; cheap energy – warmth in the winter and cooling in the summer and door to door delivery with a $35 purchase – all will be long gone, shortly.

    The simple fact is that the US/UK – the Western Empire and NATO are in an existential war with the Russian Federation but they are acting like everything is normal and then go destroy three of the four pipelines carrying energy into Germany, France, Netherlands etc. (the EU). This is too crazy to the sane. A realist would say that a rational response is an armistice and a DMZ separating Ukraine and Russia. But like the last world war, an unconditional surrender is now the default future. As a result of this, it is inevitable that tactical nuclear weapons will be used by one side or the other to avoid defeat. Once the nuclear threshold is crossed, escalation into a global nuclear war that will destroy western civilization and most likely will drag China into the apocalypse is unavoidable.

    #117900
    V. Arnold
    Participant

    Putin Made a Peace Offer. Take it.

    Of course you know, “they” won’t take it…
    Pity…our days are likely numbered…

    #117902
    EoinW
    Participant

    I suppose the good thing is that this peace offer will be ignored. As pointed out above, Ukraine has not been demilitarized. It has not been deNazified. Plus there’s a large Russian population which has yet to be liberated. If the SMO ends now then it will have failed to achieve its goals.

    The existential war is not between NATO/Russia. The real existential war – the 1st front – began March 2020 and continues to rage between the West’s political class and its own citizens. It’s been onesided to date because the Nazis running our society have been the only side to resort to violence. That hopefully changes this winter.

    If there’s a 2nd front it will be Russia/NATO in direct conflict. Our political class could blunder into that one. They are so out of touch with reality(don’t they invent every reality they like with their lies?) they’re too ignorant to see that EVERYTHING in the West has been so corrupted that little positive activity can be achieved anywhere. The US military is one of the most corrupt entities. This is why it’s one/two generations behind Russia technologically.

    They should be grateful Putin is patient enough to wish to stand aside and wait for the West to implode. Will that happen before the neoCons come up with one escalation too many?

    #117909
    Enginer
    Participant

    In considering Putin’s options, and the recalcitrance of Eastern Ukrainian Russians to submit to puppet Zelensky, it is wise to look back at some Russian history.
    Overrun for years by invaders (primarily from the East), Russians developed a hard shell that allowed them to snap back after depravations. Then, Hitler, the new Napolean, decided to try the same thing.
    Most Westerners have forgotten that in both incidents, (Moscow and Stalingrad) the Russians burned their own city to deprive the invaders of food–in the height of winter. Many more Russians died than Europeans.
    They are doing the same to all of Europe, although it is the EU, not Russia, that has brought this likelihood forward.
    I pray for the people of Germany (and the UK) as the current triple-dip la-Ninia promises a nasty winter.
    Also, “Climate-change” is slowly wiggling downward over the last 6 years, and probably will continue for a few decades.
    https://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_September_2022_v6.jpg

    #117913
    Enginer
    Participant

    EoinW:
    Unfortunately, for Russia, they made the mistake to largely stick to analog electronic components after an abortive effort to go with semiconductors. They are catching up very slowly.
    The Excalibur GPS missiles that can be directed to exact coordinates pinpointed by US satellites and programed at the point of launching by American “technicians” via Starlink Satellite Internet are much more effective on the battlefield than Russian laser-targeted missiles (KAB-500L) that require a drone to paint the target as a pre-launched missies arrives. Even the KAB-500S-E GPS guided bomb suffers from production difficulties because of a lack of Western-sanctioned non-Russian parts.

    #117914
    boscohorowitz
    Participant

    I really like the flavor of Viet Nam’s prose today. Oh, I’m saure I mostly agree with its meaning also, but I’m a sucker for clean evocative prose. This, for example:

    “History does more than rhyme. The past puts us in the place where we are today with the things, people and society around us. “The past is not even past.” Old, unhinged, autocratic, ideologies that grab others’ wealth are still very much with us. An Empire creates its own reality that the minions must believe if they are to be Insiders.”… pleases me very much.

Viewing 18 posts - 1 through 18 (of 18 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.