Dec 282023
 December 28, 2023  Posted by at 12:30 pm Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , ,

Edward Hopper Funnel of Trawler 1924



Good thing India didn’t join the sanctions, explains Andrew Korybko. Maybe there’s a lesson in there for more people and countries. Also, maybe it’s too late for some. Even if the deindustralization of Germany has barely started.



Andrew Korybko:

A representative of India’s Petroleum and Natural Gas Ministry told a department-related parliamentary standing committee that their country’s Russian oil imports helped stabilize the global energy market and prevent havoc from breaking out according to a recent report from The Indian Express. What follows are the excerpts that they cited from that event, which will then be analyzed so that the reader can fully appreciate India’s latest contribution to the world:

“If they (Indian refiners) had not imported Russian oil into India, which may be a big number of 1.95 million barrels per day, that deficiency would have created a havoc in the crude oil market and the prices would have shot up by about $30-40.

The crude oil market is such that in the market of 100 million barrels per day, if the OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) says that they are going to reduce it by one or two million barrels per day, prices increase by 10 to 20 per cent and reach up to $125-130.

If India does not absorb–I would call it absorption–1.95 million barrels per day, these prices would have reached $120-130. It would have created a havoc. Diplomatically, we are a sovereign country and could say that we have been doing what is good for the country as well as the world.”

This insight aligns with what was earlier shared in these five analyses from June 2022-March 2023:

* 14 June 2022: “Russian-Indian Energy Diplomacy Helps Delhi Balance Washington

* 30 November 2022: “Russia’s Energy Geopolitics With China & India

* 16 January 2023: “The US Discredited Its Own Sanctions By Buying Refined Russian Oil Products Via India

* 8 February 2023: “The West’s Anti-Russian Sanctions Made India Indispensable To The Global Energy Market

* 1 March 2023: “Russia Will Keep Up The Pace Of Oil Exports To India Despite Increased Chinese Demand

If India hadn’t resisted Western pressure, then the whole international community would have suffered.

To explain, many Global South states were already struggling to deal with COVID-connected debt problems prior to the West’s anti-Russian sanctions worsening their food insecurity, so an energy price crisis on top of that could have pushed them over the edge into an uncontrollable polycrisis. Not only could this have led to spiraling unrest that could have spread throughout this swath of the world, but the security and humanitarian consequences would have also destabilized the West as well.  

Those countries among that New Cold War bloc that are dependent on resources and markets there might have felt compelled to launch unilateral military interventions, while large-scale refugee flows could have crashed into their societies with all that entails for exacerbating preexisting tensions. This worst-case scenario was averted through India’s principled neutrality towards the Ukrainian Conflict, which saw this globally significant Great Power resist Western pressure to boycott Russian energy.

If Delhi had capitulated to their demands, then the abrupt removal of so much energy from the market would have plunged it into chaos. The remaining producers couldn’t have replaced Russia’s lost share, thus leading to a competition among the wealthiest countries (namely China and the EU) to purchase their remaining resources. All the while, the debt-beleaguered and newly food-insecure Global South would have been unable to maintain its minimum energy needs, thus setting the polycrisis into motion.

As the unnamed Indian official told parliament, “we have been doing what is good for the country as well as the world”, which highlighted the growing convergence between India’s national interests and those of the international community. This South Asian Great Power practices what can be described as a hyper-realist grand strategy wherein India not only prioritizes its national interests as policymakers conceive them to be, but candidly acknowledges this approach and also details those same interests.

By doing so, India removes all ambiguity about its interests, which therefore makes it the most predictable partner that anyone can have. This policy is premised on the trust that India has cultivated with everyone since they don’t have any reason to question its representatives’ sincerity whenever they speak about their national interests. Some might have different views and even dislike India’s policies, but nobody can credibly claim that those representatives are lying about what that they want and why.

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov praised this approach and the multialignment that it naturally led to during a press conference with his Indian counterpart on Wednesday when saying that “I believe this policy is not just important for Russia and all other countries around the world, but it is the only policy worth conducting that will ensure respect and reputation and be beneficial in India’s cooperation with other countries that show similar respect to all members of the international community.”

The West will never appreciate what India did for the world, but the Global South is beginning to realize that the polycrisis that many of their officials feared would unfold shortly after the anti-Russian sanctions were promulgated was largely averted through India’s drastically scaled imports of that country’s oil. This stabilized the market, which made it easier for them to manage their debt and food security problems, thus preventing this part of the world from slipping into full-scale instability to everyone’s detriment.




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Home Forums How We Averted The Polycrisis

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    Edward Hopper Funnel of Trawler 1924     Good thing India didn’t join the sanctions, explains Andrew Korybko. Maybe there’s a lesson in ther
    [See the full post at: How We Averted The Polycrisis]


    What’s Behind the Green Door?
    spiraling unrest
    military interventions,
    large-scale refugee flows
    the debt-beleaguered
    newly food-insecure
    lost of control of the narrative

    What is a global polycrisis?

    What is a global polycrisis?
    And how is it different from a systemic risk?

    Michael Lawrence, Scott Janzwood, and Thomas Homer-Dixon

    Technical Paper #2022-4 Version Number: 2.0 September 16, 2022

    This discussion paper argues that the concept of “global polycrisis” provides a necessary and productive framework with which to understand and address major problems afflicting humanity today. A global polycrisis occurs when crises in multiple global systems become causally entangled in ways that significantly degrade humanity’s prospects. These interacting crises produce harms greater than the sum of those the crises would produce in isolation, were their host systems not so deeply interconnected.

    The paper elaborates several important features of this definition, compares it to other authors’ use of the term, and distinguishes it from the related concept of systemic risk.
    The Cascade Institute is a Canadian research center that addresses the full range of humanity’s converging environmental, economic, political, technological, and health crises. Using advanced methods to map and model complex global systems, we analyze the interactions between systemic risks, anticipate future crises and opportunities, and develop high-leverage interventions in social systems.
    The pandemic’s persistence
    19 December 2023

    Read More …..

    John Day

    Both India and Turkey benefit from being at the crossroads between power blocs, facilitating “forbidden” trade, and taking a cut.
    Erdogan and Modi have their own personal power interests, in general alignment with national interests, but both are tricky and willing to cause harm if it suits their interests.
    They are power-players in history. Of the two, Modi always makes me more uneasy, seeming fundamentally unprincipled, except in his thirst for power. (YMMV)

    Dr. D

    What is a global polycrisis? “a productive framework with which to understand and address major problems afflicting humanity today.”

    Translation: “to understand and address major problems WE ARE INTENTIONALLY CAUSING humanity today.”

    Since we’re causing them for no reason at all except Greed and Power, it’s ridiculously easy to STOP causing them. Like the Club of Rome, this isn’t an organic diagnosis, it’s a WAR PLAN. Like the Club of Rome, they use computer models? Really? Computer Models haven’t been right once in my lifetime. Remember how HIV was going to stop all sex and kill everyone? Japan was going to take over the solar system? Oil was going to run out by now instead of new 50-year pipelines being built every month? Manhattan would be underwater? We’d run out of food? Libya and California would become deserts and have no flash floods there? We’d have less food in Russia and Canada? The polar bears would be extinct and there was no snow? Well Geez, if you took the #Opposite of all those things, you’d be right.

    Every day: is there literally ANYTHING that can discredit someone? Anything? Riding on a pedo plane 40 times? Going out to see your mistress maskless after your prediction of 6 billion dead from Covid fails? Taking millions from foreign governments? Taking hundred millions from corporations? Killing half a million gay guys with a drug you make the patent on? Anything?

    Trying “to understand and address major problems WE ARE INTENTIONALLY CAUSING humanity today.”


    You can pretend they’re are legitimate, independent countries, all you want. You can pretend voting repub or demo in jewsa will make a difference. Rothschild $ rules the world and what is happening now, the destruction of the Chrixstian West was planned over 100 years ago. This whole hamasjew thing is a fuckin psyop. like all the other psyops, hammered into empty heads by television. Read the Protocols, they told you what they will do and laugh in your face as they do it. There is only 1 way out of this jewmoney construct worldtakover monstrosity…become a bigger sonofabitch

    D Benton Smith

    No, @Celticbiker, that is NOT the only way out. The actual way out requires bigger balls than that. Grow a pair, big talker, and then maybe we can talk. Meanwhile, every time you advocate hatred and mistreatment as any kind of “solution” then you can expect me to talk to you about it, coward.

    Alexander Carpenter

    OK, so we have this neologism “polycrisis,” which is properly complexity-aware. Let’s not get too jargoned-up on ourselves, as we have a well-established word that has even better resonances already: “predicament.”


    D Benton Smith said

    No, @Celticbiker, that is NOT the only way out. The actual way out requires bigger balls than that. Grow a pair, big talker, and then maybe we can talk. Meanwhile, every time you advocate hatred and mistreatment as any kind of “solution” then you can expect me to talk to you about it, coward.

    What snake oil are you selling? What are you advocating or is it a secret that only you know? Come on Smith, speed up that brain and produce the solution you failed to detail or even name. It is not like you to hide your light under a busshel, so I have to assume it is a work in progress, your light is not yet lit, it is out. And what is this about a coward, at least celticbiker has the nuts to say it as he sees it, meanwhile you wait for your noggin to warm up and do some work.


    Read the essay and immediately thought about Dr D’s theory related to the control of access to fuel oils being the impetus behind global hegemonies both fighting wars and seeding “climage change” loretype into the noosphere. Seems to me the essay’s interesting claim is that consuming oil is what saved the fragile confederacy of “The West”/”The North”-oppressed nations, because the act of becoming a consumer decreased the competitiveness of other already established consumers, faciliating greater ease of consumption for all players, and reducing the competitive strengths of the already failing “West”/”North”. But isn’t this pretty much a “free market” logicmantra, a series of causality claims where greater participation of peoples in a market encourages even greater facilitation of participation by all in that market? Does this mean if I support “the global South” against a hegemonic “global West” I am in effect for free markets? And, by enabling free market access we enrich the lives of the poorest and most desperate?

    Is Korybko one of those “cryptocapitalists” my college philosophy professors warned me about? (I’m supposed to gesture the apotropaic sign to Avert if he is.)

    Also, D Benton Smith tells Celticbiker that “the actual way out” is not to be a “bigger sonofabitch” but to have “bigger balls.” But what did Celticbiker actually mean by being a sonofabitch, such that D Benton Smith thinks that’s irreality and reality is to grow testicles (or what else are the sorts of “balls” he’s referring to?) —but then what does that mean? What does it mean to have big testicles, or to have them at all? What does it mean to grow large and have a female dog for mother? How does insulting your own mother remove a person from a “jewmoney construct worldtakover monstrosity”? Why are you aging men so obsessed with genitals and size-related functioning that your avowed moral values rely on such crude and ambiguous metaphors?

    You really lose all moral highground, talking about acting upon world-spanning conflicts of great strategic and spiritual depths orchestrated by networks of financially and ideologically bound agents and actors, when your exhortations to one another involve growing bigger genitals.

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