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you make an excellent point regarding obesity. A simple observation will easily conclude that the west has a much bigger problem (and waistline) than the east. And finally it seems that vitamin D is getting the respect that it deserves.
“A Single Large Dose of Vitamin D Could be Used as a Means of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Prevention and Treatment”
Although I’m not sure why they felt the need to use a single, nearly toxic, 300,000 IU dose to quickly build up the body’s D level. The evidence of it’s effectiveness is becoming overwhelming. However I still don’t see any general public recommendation from the CDC or the NIH to use “D” supplements.
Hopefully this post contains a picture comparing the infection rate between Boston MA and Stockton CA during the 1918 epidemic. The use of masks was compulsory in Stockton but not in Boston. There is no difference in the rate or severity, in fact Boston looks better. Every scientific study since 1918, including RCTs, have concluded the same. Masks do not have any appreciable effect on the spread of infectious diseases.
There’s over a century of science on the effectiveness of masks for the prevention of viral transmission and virtually every study has concluded that they do not work and it is a totally inappropriate strategy for the population at large. Presenting one video that show how cloth masks stop spit spray and concluding that the mask can stop everything is quite a leap of faith or is it hope. It’s not like noone has ever thought about it before. People want to believe it’s just that easy but the science always says the opposite. In February the WHO, the CDC, NIH, OSHA, Fauci, Redfield and the surgeon general all recommended against universal masking. Do you really think that the settled science regarding facemasks has changed that radically, that quickly?
Here’s some quotes… there’s many more to choose from.
‘Face masks in public places are not necessary, based on all the current evidence,’ said Coen Berends, spokesman for the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment. ‘There is no benefit and there may even be negative impact.’
Holland’s position is based on assessments by the Outbreak Management Team, a group of experts advising the government. It first ruled against masks in May and has re-evaluated the evidence several times, including again last week.
CDC Policy Review Found No Evidence Of Usefulness Either
“In our systematic review, we identified 10 RCTs [randomized controlled trials] that reported estimates of the effectiveness of face masks in reducing laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infections in the community from literature published during 1946–July 27, 2018. In pooled analysis, we found no significant reduction in influenza transmission with the use of face masks …
N Engl J Med 2020; 382:e63 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp2006372
Universal Masking in Hospitals in the Covid-19 Era
As the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic continues to explode, hospital systems are scrambling to intensify their measures for protecting patients and health care workers from the virus. An increasing number of frontline providers are wondering whether this effort should include universal use of masks by all health care workers. Universal masking is already standard practice in Hong Kong, Singapore, and other parts of Asia and has recently been adopted by a handful of U.S. hospitals.
We know that wearing a mask outside health care facilities offers little, if any, protection from infection. Public health authorities define a significant exposure to Covid-19 as face-to-face contact within 6 feet with a patient with symptomatic Covid-19 that is sustained for at least a few minutes (and some say more than 10 minutes or even 30 minutes). The chance of catching Covid-19 from a passing interaction in a public space is therefore minimal. In many cases, the desire for widespread masking is a reflexive reaction to anxiety over the pandemic
“Flowers will grow from the ashes of capitalism”
Interesting topic that you’ve hit on. I am a late night TV junkie and have had many conversations about the various players. First of I think you can say that all of the late night hosts are liberals with democratic leanings and so is the late night audience. No right leaning host has ever succeeded. Jon Stewart was my favorite. A sharp wit and a low tolerance for fools. While certainly left leaning, Jon would have no problem and take some delight in ridiculing both democratic and republican baffoonery. Steven Colbert was brilliant in his right wing persona but floundered terrible trying to be himself. He suffered in the ratings until he found his foil in Trump, an easy mark with tons of baggage. He rode that whipping boy relentlessly and it took him to #1 in the late night ratings over silly man Jimmy Fallon who seemed to want to be more of an entertainer than a political analyst.
But how long can you beat the same dead horse? Colbert has gone from funny to mean, just one nasty comment after another. Seth Meyers also seems to have a visceral hate for orange man and takes great delight in finding a way to mock anything and everything Trump. Sorry Seth you’re not very funny, just plain mean. And now “The Daily Show with Trevor Noah” which started out OK has now just degenerated into orange man bad, white man bad, every night, with a little relief from some of the secondary players.
I don’t watch anyway near as much late night as I use to. I want a little light humor before falling to sleep not “something to think about”. When I do watch I seem to migrate to Jimmy Fallon who I use to think was just too silly for my taste but now I find that “silly” is a welcomed, pleasant relief from the constant Trump bashing political analysis of the other hosts.
Doesn’t look like my attachment made it. I’ll try again…
Where do all you “maskers” get off? What could possibly justify this obsession with enforcing your paranoia on the rest of us? And with threats of shotguns no less?
Virtually every scientific study on mask effectiveness at stopping the spread of viral infection for the last hundred years, starting with the 1920 report and as recently as September of last year, have concluded that mask wearing is NOT effective at stopping the viral spread and is only useful as a psychological crutch for the paranoid.
Prior to March 2020 every major health and safety organization agreed, “Masks should not be worn by the general public”. These included the CDC, NIH, WHO, OSHA, and more. These positions were expounded by the heads of all of these organizations. Yet somehow 100 years of science has been totally upended by a few studies demonstrating how efficient masks are at stopping spit. Now everyone’s on the same page basically saying mask up or die and the MSM spends all it’s time scaring the crap out of people with a totally unwarranted certainty.
The 1920 analysis of cloth mask use during the 1918 pandemic examines the failure of masks to impede or stop flu transmission at that time, and concluded that the number of layers of fabric required to prevent pathogen penetration would have required a suffocating number of layers, and could not be used for that reason, as well as the problem of leakage vents around the edges of cloth masks. (see attachment comparing Boston, no masks, to Stockton, mandatory masks)
The virus is .1micron in size. N95 masks are 95% effective at stopping .3micron particles but are minimally effective at .1micron. Even if properly fitted cloth and surgical masks are just a good laugh to any self respecting virus and I doubt if more than 1% of people wear properly fitted and clean masks.
I’m no rabble rouser, I wear a mask when I shop or interact with others. I do it for them because I know that people have been freaked out by all the BS, they’re scared and I have no desire to frighten them anymore then the MSM already has but I don’t believe for a minute that this mask is doing me or them any good at all. Now if someone wants to point me to some real scientific studies that tell a different story then I’ll be glad to consider them and if the evidence is compelling then I’ll change my mind.
People like DrCiber should do some research before making such outrageous, uneducated threats.
If lockdowns and masks are effective in reducing the deaths caused by covid -19 then shouldn’t we have seen a noticeable drop in the number of deaths caused by the “plain old” flu that we see every year? That does not seem to be the case in the England and Wales statistics as shown in the Off Guardian article:
Flattening the curve by reducing interpersonal contact makes sense to buy some time to keep the system from getting overwhelmed but, given the size of this airborne virus, masking seems to be an exercise in futility.
Does Ilargi have a medical degree that he’s hiding from us? Why is he qualified to comment on COVID?
What about economics? Where’s his credentials to justify his writings on reserve currency?
He talks about oil and energy; is he also a closet geologist?
Hey I was over on John Day’s site and he had some pretty strong opinions on the environment and climate issues. When did he become a climate scientist?
But for some here the good Dr. D needs to be some kind of medical professional to garner any credibility or to even have the audacity to post.
Dr D has been one of the most informative and consistently entertaining commentators on this site. His research is usually quite good and his insight are anything but shallow and he delivers it all with just the right touch of wit and cynicism.
OK maybe he needs a refresher course with CALC.EXE since 812,758 deaths out of 7.59 billion people = .01% not .00001% but then again maybe he’s only counting people who actually died of COVID and not with COVID but I’ll let that pass and I’ll ask the good Dr. D to keep ranting on.
“Dollar hegemony isn’t foreordained. For years, analysts have warned that China and other powers might decide to abandon the dollar and diversify their currency reserves for economic or strategic reasons.”
Diversify into what? After you acquire all the cars, private jets, fabulous mansions and your own personal islands just what do you do with those left over billions?
I keep asking the question but never do I get a satisfying answer.
I read the paper you posted and have come away somewhat confused. Maybe you can clarify a few things for me.
Budesonide does not surpress virus replication but ciclesonide does?
“One UK database study among 817,973 people with asthma observed a nonsignificant 10% increase in COVID related mortality associated with use low or medium dose ICS and a significant 52% increase with high dose ICS” – This sounds bad but then…
“for patients with asthma, the current guidance is to continue taking their ICS containing controller therapy because it may confer optimal protection against viral infections including SARS-CoV-2 – This sounds like a good thing.
“The historical facts are counter intuitively just the opposite from Dr D’s assertion. Except for a 2% overall increase in suicides the mortality rate actually goes down during economic downturns with high unemployment. Great Depression and Great Recession being notable examples of studies done.”
I’ve heard this before and it has to be one of the worst counter arguments I’ve ever come across. Let’s extend it further and put everyone on permanent lockdown and just slide them food under their doors for the rest of their lives. That’ll drive that mortality rate even lower. Let’s not forget that the number one cause of death is living. A gilded cage is still a cage. Our lifespans are limited and the level of risk I’m willing to take to live it to what I consider the fullest should be my choice. The pity is that I have to make that choice using information I can’t trust.
Facts are simple and facts are straight
Facts are lazy and facts are late
Facts all come with points of view
Facts don’t do what I want them to
Facts just twist the truth around
Facts are living turned inside out
Facts are getting the best of them
Facts are nothing on the face of things
Facts don’t stain the furniture
Facts go out and slam the door
Facts are written all over your face
Facts continue to change their shape
I’m still waiting…I’m still waiting…I’m still waiting…
Talking Heads – Crosseyed and Painless
For all the math challenged…
1% of a billion is 10 million
1% of the world’s population is 77 million
1% of the 40% of the US population that might get the virus is 1.3 million
not to take anything away from the seriousness or the death potential of this virus but exaggerating the numbers doesn’t help one bit.
Seems to me that it would be a lot easier to fudge the “infected” number than it would the “dead” number. I could easily see the infected number being 10, 20, even 50 times higher than reported but the dead number would be much harder to suppress. So maybe in the end the mortality rate 10 or 20 times less than we think today and this story just becomes the latest failed media driven apocalypse.
What is Putin up to? Something has to change in Russia…
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You throw around this .5% efficiency number like it has some special meaning in summing up the stupidity of the human species. Like the species had a choice and just made the wrong one. I don’t understand what to think about this number. Should I be proud that my species was able to conceive and create such a contraption or should I somehow be ashamed of this accomplishment?
Before cars people rode horses and a horse had to be raised, fed and attended to while it grew into something useful to man. Now a man uses it to ride to town. Should I calculate the efficiency number of this horse technology and if I do, what does it mean? Was the development of horse and buggy technology an earlier bad choice made by my species?
Humans are natural being. We have evolved from smaller brained beings that don’t have the intellectual reasoning capacity to care about things like energy, waste and resource limitations. At our core we are still driven by nature and just like nature drives bacteria in a petri dish to multiply and expand until they run out of resources, humans are the same. This is what we do. This is what nature drives us to do. Any intellectual attempts to control or reverse these natural tendencies is doomed to failure. It’s not natural. Humans will continue to use our position at the top of the natural order to control and utilize all the resources available to us. We will fix the problems that we create when they absolutely have to be fixed. And when we run out of resources then, like the bacteria in the petri dish, we will collapse and die or we will use our technology to expand outside of earth proper and find more resources to utilize. It’s what we do.
Finally Dr. D makes a statement that puts the whole 737 scare affair into it’s proper perspective. The 737 max is the latest iteration of an exceptionally safe and reliable airplane. The problem, as we all now know, was not the plane, not the heavy motors, not even the sensor; the problem was and is the fact that the control philosophy overriding the software development has morphed from one where the control system software was developed to service the pilot’s needs to one where the pilot is just considered a backup system.
I’d bet that the design team for the first generation 737 control system was headed by a control engineer to provide the pilot with information and assistance to make the flight as safe and comfortable as possible. Software development and coding would have been subordinate and focused on servicing the requirement of the control engineers. But over the last few decades things have changed. Sensors have gotten cheap and tiny. Computer processing has seen both exponential increases in power and decreases in size and cost. People figure that adding some additional code to an existing software package cost nothing except maybe a little programming time and some testing.
I’d bet that the MACS software upgrade was developed by some software engineer and approved by some manager with a Management/Software Design degree.I say this because the control logic used in this sub loop is a complete rookie mistake that no self respecting control engineer would ever make. The idea of a logic loop that uses a single point of failure to take complete control of critical control systems is absolutely ludicrous. Such a critical loop should at least have had it’s own warning light and a disable switch mounted directly underneath. The pilot would have easily recovered and reported the failed sensor upon landing.
Keep in mind that this new safety feature was implemented because a computer analysis determined that the plane had a slightly higher chance of stalling under certain circumstances. I don’t know of any reported instances where the system actually was needed and worked as planned. This was not a critical safety system. The pilot could have easily recovered by disabling the MACS. It does not require 3 sensors. 3 sensors would be overkill.
Keep at it Raul. Jullian needs to stay visible and hypocrites need to be called out.
“Climate change and the jet stream”
“The little boy who cried wolf”
How many more failed predictions of an ice free arctic passage must pass?
How many more climate models need to crash and burn?
How much more historical data need to be “adjusted”?
How many more suicidal walruses do we need to see jumping off cliffs?
I guess the little boy was eventually eaten by the wolf but until I see them farming in Greenland again I just can’t seem to take it seriously anymore..
Hmmm Isn’t the use of climate reanalyser’s data just another form of cherry picking?
What an excellent piece of work. Thank you Dr D
• Antarctic Losing 500% More Ice A Year Than In 80s – NASA (Ind.)
“Between 2009 and 2017 it lost an average 252 gigatonnes a year. This has added 3.6mm per decade to sea levels, or around 14mm since 1979, the study shows.”
Hmmm… let’s do the math. At 3.6mm/decade that’s 36mm per century or about 1 1/2 inches per century. At 252 gigatonnes per year we will see an ice free Antarctica around the year 3100.
Don’t we have bigger issues to worry about?
• ‘No Existing Countermeasures’ To Russian Hypersonic Weapons – US Gov’t (RT)
This is a very frightening piece of news for the US.
That is if it can be believed…
‘High-tech’ robot on Russian TV was man in suit: report
Well I guess Kunstler couldn’t have been more wrong. Can’t wait to hear the new spin on the uppity black activist judge.
Trump foundation dissolves in disgrace. Could it be that we actually still have the remnants of a functional legal system? Nay, too much to hope for.
Dr. D, stop rewriting history. Noone in the financial world predicted a Trump victory would lead to a stock market crash. Very few predicted a Trump victory and the few that did bet heavily on a market rise the very next day.
“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it…”
Think this might apply to the 90+% of climate scientists employed by tax hungry governments?
If the IPCC isn’t the classic chicken little, the sky is falling story then I don’t know what is. For the most part their predictions have been wrong, wrong, wrong. A simple look at the more than 60 climate temperature models shows gross over overestimation. Theories are developed and then real world model are created to test the theories. Any sane scientist would conclude that there’s something wrong with the theory and that additional adjustments in the model are a waste of time. Now we’re being told that the experts have grossly UNDERestimated the effects of CO2 induced climate change and now we need an even more extreme reaction to save us from the worst effects and, by implication, touting the only possible solution to be a world government. Well color me skeptical.
(sorry I couldn’t figure out how to link the graph of the climate models)
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After the outrageous abuse of power displayed by the Republicans toward Merrick Garland nomination it’s hard for me to point a disdainful finger at the Dems for their behavior. Frankly I think they’re completely justified in blocking any Republican nominee and I hope they’re successful and that they will take back the senate and stall the next SC appointment until after the 2020 election.
As to the current circus, let’s face it, it’s Clarence Thomas ver2.0. He said, she said and seemingly no way to prove it one way or the other. Tie goes to the accused on this point but maybe he displayed enough of his dickish temperament and political bias to disqualify him but probably not. Odds are he’ll be on the court and be our second SC justice with an “ * “ after his name.
Throughout this entire process there’s been one aspect that has consumed my thinking and that is “Lifetime Appointment”. I know that there’s a lot of smart people that believe that our current technological base civilization is primed for a major reset back to a simpler, less populated time but, what if the extreme doesn’t happen and we continue on our exponential growth in technology? Well BioTech is one area that I invest in and follow closely the emerging technologies and the ever increasing understanding of cellular biology and I’m quite certain that in the near future humans will live well past 150 and have their biological brains and bodies reset, restored and rejuvenated back to the equivalent of their healthy mid 30s state. Biological immortality may take a little longer but it also seems inevitable.
While it may be a little too late for judges like Ginsberg to take advantage of these new technologies, Kavanaugh is the prime age for the coming rejuvenation proceedures and could likely serve on the supreme court for 50, 60, 70 years or more. Does anybody really think that the founding fathers would approve?
Sorry Arnold but that missile video looks pretty bogus to me.
I’m not going to bother with Infowars anymore. This may be the best place yet!
I keep reading that if the UK wants access to the single market it will have to accepts the four freedoms. Does the US trading deal with the EU include this requirement?
It would be kind to say that over the years Hansen’s predictions have been somewhat exaggerated. There has to be a limited number of times that you get to yell “THE SKY IS FALLING!”
Hansen’s scared me one time too many for me to take him seriously again.
I like Steve Keen but really, don’t you think he’s had enough time and tries to explain the Aussie housing bubble? Seem to me the hole keeps getting bigger.August 19, 2015 at 7:11 pm in reply to: The Boundaries and Future of Solution Space – Part 5 #23310
Thanks Nicole, it was a wonderful read. Part 4 was my favorite; really well done.
Don’t you think that parts of the technology will be considered “too big to fail” and will be prioritized accordingly? Cell phones, email, gps?
And what do you think will happens to all that military tech?
Does anyone, other than Tsipras, even believe that the first strategy exists?
Kumbaya Oh Lord, KumbayaFebruary 20, 2015 at 7:05 pm in reply to: Sucking Beer Out Of The Carpet: Nicole Foss At The Great Debate in Melbourne #19317
Nice job Nicole although you did seem out of place with this group.
You seemed to be the only one addressing reality as opposed to idealistic notion that the people of the world will see the error of their ways and come together choosing to live with less. The notion that you can “vote” not to collapse is just so cute but also just naive intellectual BS. For the most part people still ignore and/or dismiss your resource limitation argument and pretend that climate issues can simply be address by some global epiphany. My hope is that we will be lucky enough to at least get a benevolent dictator to rule over the other side of the eventual collapse.
This ain’t Jeopardy. Why not just make your point?September 11, 2014 at 5:45 pm in reply to: Debt Rattle Sep 9 2014: The Black Swan Of Scotland #15085
“What can’t be paid back, won’t be.”
That’s not much of an answer. What if Texas leaves the union? What if CA breaks up into 5 states? I’ve seen no discussion about what happens to public debt under these scenarios. Maybe England and Wales should also leave the UK and leave Northern Ireland to pay off all the debt.September 10, 2014 at 5:45 pm in reply to: Debt Rattle Sep 9 2014: The Black Swan Of Scotland #15068
So if Scotland leaves they get to start fresh? With no debt? If that’s the case then England and Wales should also leave and let the Irish pay off all that national debt.
Seriously, how does the debt get divided?April 22, 2014 at 7:11 pm in reply to: Debt Rattle Apr 21 2014: The Twilight Of The Rising Sun #12460
For me the surprise from Japan is the complete buffoonary being displayed in the reaction to the Fukushima accident. My impression of the Japanese prowess in science and technology was set in the late 80s when the country seemed unstoppable. I was absolutely sure that by this time a new breed of industrial robots would have completely contained the multitude of problems and would now be scouring every square inch of soil collecting all remaining contaminated. Boy did I miss that call.
I guess 25 years of depression can really take a toll on a nations phyche. There are just too many issues going on in Japan to hope for a soft outcome. A significant cultural revolution now seem inevitable.