chris_gee
Forum Replies Created
-
Posts
-
6500 NZ drs came out urging vaccine adoption.Persuasive? Not. My golf club is considering requiring it. Caplan has an article on medscape saying drs should be able to refuse unvaccinated patients. More interesting are the comments, some knowledgable some not., but the cracks show. One making the point that it is the only vehicle to express their (professional) views without fear of retribution.
@zerosum the jamanetwork study seems to me to be about the likehood of infection of a non immune person in a household where different numbers of immune persons are present. THe rate was relaively high 5% in less than a month. In essence it doesn’t appear to .suggest that immunity transferred rather that sources of infection were reduced.
The claim that NZ has snookered itself by marginally adjusting some aspects of lockdown conditions, primarily by allowing limited contact between two bubbles of up to ten outdoors, by potentially allowing them to go to the beach is dubious.
What we have is reliance on the hope that vaccination to a high level will set us free. This is heavily touted by the media, and any questioning is suppressed as reflecting disinformation. Small wonder that most form their views by absorption of this.
Fast forward 6-12 months to when it becomes endemic, vaccination or not, and the mental gymnastics will become interesting.The CDC reported in Sept 2021 on a prison outbreak of covid-19 in July August 2021.
I summarize the major findings. Immunization commenced with priority for those >65 or with pre-existing conditions
Time since Immunization.
2 weeks to 2 months 2-4 months 4-6 months Unvaccinated Total
Positive 19/31 61 % 27/61 44% 83/93 89% 39/42 93% 172/233 74%
I doubt that there is a significant difference between the unvaccinated and those vaccinated for four months or more.
Hospitalised 4 3 unvacc. Died 1 unvacc
29 had a prior covid-19 infection. 6 were reinfected, 4/7 unvaccinated and 2 out of 21 fully vaccinated and 1 partly vaccinated.
Most were vaccinated with Pfizer though others were used later.
3 had reported symptoms on July 8 but were not tested. 18 reported symptoms and tested positive on July 12. Positive cases were segregated in one unit. 11/18 were fully vaccinated.
Now comparing those vacc <4 months 46/92 52% positive v >4mths 83/93 89%, unvacc 39/42 93%.
That does not seem a significant difference.
Sure it is a confined environment but masking was in place and isolation was attempted.
Of note is the limited immunity achieved and the short duration of it.
What was not calculated was the probable infection from a vaccinated person versus from an unvaccinated person.
Vaccinated total 191 Positive 129
Unvaccinated total 42 Positive. 39
Probability contact with a positive case 168/233 = .72
Probability above contact is vaccinated 129/168 =.77
Probability above contact unvacc 39/168 = .23
In other words in a group with close contact, with 82% vaccinated you are 3.3 times more likely to be infected by a vaccinated person than an unvaccinated one.
Limit flights or restaurants to the vaccinated, and give them passports etc. and still think that will work?Thanks to upstateNYer for the excellent link to the vaccine article above. The gist is in the conclusion and I recommend reading it at p39. Effectively the enthusiastic hasty and highly promoted release and adoption of the vaccines, is wishful thinking and overlooks many potential, indeed likely, issues with it that won’t be clear for a long time. At the least now its effects should be fully researched in detail, but of course is not. In the meantime prophylactics like sunshine vit d and antioxidants via a good diet are recommended.
I doubt that it is necessary to invoke a conspiracy theory, avarice, wishful thinking, and deference to any medical opinion suffice.Influencing people is an area I have some knowledge of. Think of changing underlying beliefs. To go from it is black to it is white is almost impossible in one step. Arguing positions tends to cement those positions. Better a small step which then allows movement towards allowing for a possibility.
Thus take “I think it is possible that vaccines may do some harm.” This is not terribly contentious, because the certainty of the statement is lowered by “I think”, possible, may, and some. Very different from say “The vaccines are dangerous.” and “the vaccines are harmless”. That innocuous framing allows the other to consider the statement without threat to their existing stance, and opens them up to possible evidence that there is a possibility that the vaccines do some harm. Some movement is possible from that opening. It doesn’t have to be total and immediate change from one position to another but can catalyse further change, much like one step on a ladder may lead to another.When NZ imposed a lockdown 23 days ago in response to one case, many overseas commentators were mocking. However, to date 868 cases have been uncovered. 374 were linked to a church service attended by over 500. Obviously not all attendees were infected, but many were and it spread through household contacts.
It was centred in Auckland and travel restrictions were imposed to stop the spread to other areas with both, as it turned out, no known cases and a lower level of lockdown. Had these measures not been implemented the spread would have been much higher. The indications were that it spread easily from minimal contact. Many supermarkets have had repeated incidents of being visited by cases, and people have been warned that they could be contacts. Of course, they may be infectious before showing symptoms.
One can only guess the number of cases if nothing had been done. Say at this point 4000, and in a month? Small numbers compared to many places but there had been no cases for months.
For sure there, as elsewhere, has been an assumption that a vaccine provided immunity or at least limited severity. Secondly as elsewhere there has been an official line by politicians, medics and media, effectively curtailing questioning, labelled as disinformation. Given that knowledge only emerges gradually and as with any health issue is not definitive, one can see a basis for a united voice, and that one might wish to avoid all and sundry promoting drinking bleach or the like. However this is unfortunate, or worse. Particularly the Medical Association threatening dissidents. Trust us! No.
As a long-term strategy I can’t see this working, particularly a reliance on the vaccines currently available. That realisation will take time to work through. It was only a month or so ago that we had free travel with Australia. Not likely in the near future.I wonder if magnesium (preferably with calcium) should be added to that list as an aid to D3 utilisation. I note that plasma Mg levels (the usual test) can be quite different to intra-cellular Mg, as shown by research. It was also my experience with severe frequent coronary artery spasm.
Following the references given by Polder Dweller above led to interesting but complex physiological research but included this nugget from Channappanavac et al 2014.
“SARS-Covid specific antibody is quite unstable, the IgA and IgM response to this virus failed to last more than 6 months.”
They highlight possible lines for therapeutic developments, particularly in the general area it seemed to me of antioxidants but show how complex and interactive the body systems are. Good to know there are people researching all this, but it also shows the limitations and indeed poverty of most of the information forcefed to us naiive subjects.
