jb-hb
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Capitalism has FAILED GOALS??
The French Revolution was the Bolshevik Revolution v1.0.
“The altruistic goals of capitalism were to bring liberty, equality, and brotherhood”
“Capitalism utterly failed to bring about the tripartite goal of the French Revolution”
lol just like with all communism and proto communism, it’s up to “CAPITALISM” to achieve their goals for them? If they failed, then it must have been The Capitalism’s fault. We tried, but The Capitalism failed us. NEXT time will be different.
Seems like the French Revolution becomes a failure of Capitalism in direct proportion to the failure of the French Revolution.
Capitalism is just trade without coercion.
If you want something from someone, offer them something they are WILLING to trade for.
Capitalism most likely precedes the existence of homo sapiens sapiens.
You seem to be superimposing a straw man definition over captalism and then punching it down. But then the next intellectual step is, having qualified via the strawman definition, apply the resulting conclusion to real capitalism.
We’ve tried letting people decide if they want to give me something of theirs, but it doesn’t work.
Polemos – thank you! Yeah, Vinge and Watts are two of my favorites. I too began thinking about The Peace War and Stranded in Realtime when I mentioned the delayed nukes
Whenever I wish Vinge would write more about the Qeng Ho – I love the possibilities and merciless limitations (and occasional workarounds) he established – I have to remember Deepness is about 1,000 pages long while feeling like a 300 page novel. I recommend it to everyone and feel like it is a quick read- anytime I read it, I blow through it in 2-3 days – and then realize it’s like I am recommending Battlefield Earth, in terms of sheer size.
If you happen to be looking for fun new scifi and haven’t come across him, check out Timothy Gawne. He has a 7 book series about giant 800 metre long intelligent tanks that is goofy, fun, but surprisingly insightful and philosophical.
One of the books in his series has the endearing title: NEOLIBERAL ECONOMISTS MUST DIE! (his all-caps not mine)
Reptile: The 2009 Manual Of The Plaintiff’s Revolution By David Ball And Don Keenan
https://www.stravitzlawfirm.com/book-review-of-reptile-the-2009-manual-of-the-plaintiffs-revolut.html“…if you present your case so as to reach the Reptile, you can overcome the pernicious effects of “tort deform” and other biases that would otherwise keep a juror from rendering a just verdict. In short, the book is a roadmap for bringing the danger home for your jurors. To reach the Reptile, the authors suggest you focus on community safety.”
So much doublespeak
But basically “If only we could shut off the conscious part of people’s brain. What if we could directly access their reptile brain, provide the appropriate stimulus, and the entire person goes with it.”
“SAFETY RULE + DANGER = REPTILE” …to paraphrase the book: “…and that’s a GOOD thing.”
Does this equation look at all familiar?
It’s interesting how full of double-speak the review is – the book must be worse. So very righteous and totally evil in the same breath.
This is like the other 50% of what WEF, masters of the universe, etc have been doing – the part other than Rules for Radicals.
So much research, for years has been done into bypassing, shutting off conscious thought. We could really use a scientifically informed manual on self-defense against these methods and how to turn others’ brains ON when techniques are used to shut them off.
I just had a flashback to the good ol Foundation series by Asimov. I love how Asimov, as part of his scifi concepts, has human advances in things other than just physical technological objects.
Advanced techniques in language-analysis apparently are developed, using computers. A diplomat shows up, they talk with this diplomat for a week or so. They’re feeling really positive. They feel like he’s saying good things. We’re making real progress here.
Then they consult their logician who informs them that every part of what the diplomat said mathematically cancels out every other part of what they said. They talked for days and the guy managed to say nothing.
I wish there were an analysis we could do like that on communism. When all the deceptions and self-contradictions are subtracted, what remains? Because over and over, people adopt these principles and then act like corrupt tribal 3rd-worlders in the application of Communism. Without fail. So many real-world experiments to refer to. They ALWAYS say they’re going to really DO it this time, be purists, stick to the principles etc.
If you could run Asimov’s logic-reduction on it, what would we find that communism actually says? I’d think you’d have to run some sort of logic-reduction to determine if true communism applies. Like Communism is 4 – 8 + 10 = 6. Why are we never getting 4? 4 is expressly promised in the manifesto! We probably just need to obey the equation harder.
There’s the abstract idea of communism and then there’s what very predictably happens anytime human beings try to actually DO it
So what “is” communism?
The abstract idea that’s Never Really Been Tried?
Or what actually HAPPENS in the world each time there is “Communism”
“We need more of your trust. We’re having problems with getting enough of it.” Yes. Yes you do. Yes you are.
Ever been in a relationship with a Cluster-B (Narc, Borderline, etc) who begins incessantly saying “YOU need to really open up more, be more vulnerable”? This usually presages great unpleasantness rather than greater intimacy. At least as NON lizard robot insect alien psychos conceive of intimacy.
Need everyone else’s trust but can’t even pretend to talk about earning trust to get trust. Does not compute. YOU need to go ahead and trust. That’s YOUR job.
experimenting with that Odysee vid
trying embed option (share > embed this content > copy)
<iframe id=”odysee-iframe” width=”560″ height=”315″ src=”https://odysee.com/$/embed/@FrontlineCovid19CriticalCareAlliance:c/Weekly_Webinar_January18:1?r=9C8dc5pQmr8RQTgkFoYzGsLMEeXoLuJX” allowfullscreen></iframe>clicking share and copy link (copy/paste from address bar gives the same exact text)
AI is important not only in the arts and the economy.
I remember reading an interview of a Russian general about the big pull-back early on in Ukraine – when they had Paratroopers west of Kiev, columns all through the country, etc.
He gave a few particulars we’re all probably familiar with, but one thing stuck in my mind. I’m paraphrasing here, but he said something like:
“WTF am I supposed to do with full intelligence suite plus command and control coming from NATO to Ukraine forces – along with millions of multi-sensor embedded computing devices reporting back to AI processing all the data in realtime spread throughout the battlefield”
One of the things A Deepness In The Sky goes into great detail on is the effect of saturating an area with what Verner Vinge calls “localizers.” Devices capable of powerful networked computation, equipped with a sensor suite – collecting, processing and reporting sophisticated info that could not be derived from specific points of view, specific scouting, specific sensors. He speculates on both use of localizers in society and in military applications quite prophetically from 1992. Seems the russian general was fully cognizant that it isn’t in the future anymore. All those smartphones are a localizer net.
Over 500 advertisers have “paused” ads on Twitter
Elon should come out with an app that can quickly tell you if a product comes from one of these companies.
For instance, it could include a handy barcode reader I can zap a product with to alert me, recommend possible alternatives.
You can now sing in a wide variety of different voices, using AI. For example, Yamaha Vocaloid currently has 70 voices and they’re always working on more.
You can use them 2 ways. You can give the computer the words and it will sing everything itself. Or you can slap it on top of a vocal track.
Below, Micheal Jackson is definitely PERFORMING – his vocal was fed into the AI voice. But you are not hearing Micheal Jackson. Using Vocaloid on his vocal track means he is essentially playing the AI as an instrument.
Same thing happening here – more noticeable because a voice match was not attempted. Celine Dion’s performance, but routed through the AI. The AI is being “played” by Celine, essentially.
Another reminder of what the AI we are being shown can do. (thus a reminder to try to imagine what we aren’t being shown)
A weird sub-genre of Youtube videos have cropped up. Nostalgia videos for movies that never existed. Look at the style and sheer volume of stuff here. I don’t think it really impacts a person until one is 50-75% through it and you really start to have trouble maintaining denial.
This is a product of someone simply telling GPT what they want.
D Benton Smith thank you kindly – But he’s been making me better and better over the past 4 weeks while he has stayed the same.
Whole new vistas of Climate Disbelief that I didn’t even realize existed have opened up to me while he still can’t even articulate why extinctions are bad, confirm if he agrees or disagrees with Jenson on what points, or even confirm or disavow the basic tenets of Climate Change.
I had a different outlook just 4 weeks ago. Now Climate Change seems to be a flimsy wet paper tiger. I’ve discovered a variety of very basic common-sense epiphanies just by interacting with him. I honestly did engage because I didn’t know fully and wanted to find out.
And for instance, I only came up with the CO2 greenhouse generators based on futuristic 0.00001 pph CO2 technology today. Never would have realized this is the solution to usher in a new era of human civilization if not for him.
But maybe you’re right. I’ve traveled the distance I meant to travel, mission accomplished. move on.
Since the lockdowns gave us a great real-world experiment of Taking Action Now, can you Climate Meltdown people at least abandon Taking Action Now, since obviously, it increases CO2 production, the most reflective and insulative trace-gas in the universe?
dude, you HATE ad hominem attacks. You are the white knight of defeating all ad hominem, right? It’s wrong everywhere it appears.
Anyway, you seriously believe that fossil fuel use was not affected significantly by worldwide lockdowns and you accuse me of 12 year old thinking.
You’re embarrassing the Climate Meltdown religion. YOU’RE the one de-pantsing it in public – I hope you realize.
if 0.00000041907 pph can heat the globe by entire degrees, think what we will be able to do utilizing CO2 at 0.000041907 pph!!!
Nuclear power plants create power by boiling water into steam and turning turbines.
We should be able to dispense with practically all fossil power generation and switch to CO2 greenhouse based turbines
Ships at sea equipped with a CO2 greenhouse powered boiler should be able to cruise during the day while burning zero fossil fuels
Do we dare go to 0.00001 pph? Surely mankind is not ready to wield such power.
as usual, Afewknowthetruth, you appear to be purposely missing the point. And I TOLD YOU the point in the post you are replying to.
“I see that jb-hb thinks that by changing the units of measurement he can change the outcome ”
indeed I do. since a trace gas at 0.00000041907 pph raises the entire PLANET’s temperature by whole degrees, we have discovered an incredibly powerful SUPER INSULATOR.
We can therefore beat climate change by adopting CO2 as a super-insulator, decreasing our fossil fuel use to almost nothing in a variety of areas. We have only to adopt it in a variety of applications to beat Climate Meltdown
When will your campaign to adopt CO2 filled double and triple paned windows as the salvation of the Earth begin?
Afewknowthetruth – “…a substantial effect…”
show us where the cessation of human activity affected CO2.
Afewknowthetruth said:
Daily CO2
Jan. 17, 2023 = 0.00000041907 pphJan. 17, 2022 = 0.0000004178 pph
The 2023 season peak will occur in late May and will record around 0.000000423 pph, up 0.000000193 pph from the long-term average of 0.000000230 pph and up 0.000000143 pph from the pre-industrial average of 0.000000280 pph..
thanks for the info
Just a personal anecdote here. Still job hunting. A few observations
over 130 applications. ONLY interest taken in me was by 2 companies of 50 employees or less. They had hundreds of candidates for the single offered position, but they did interviews with me, at least. As compared to large companies hiring for multiple positions who have not asked for an interview. Companies with way more resources to conduct interviews.
So some sort of blacklist for people fired over the injection that does not vaccinate still seems like a possibility to me
I reported, previously, seeing 200 or even 1500 people listed on indeed as applying for a position.
I am now sometimes seeing ranges of 15,000 applicants. That is not a typo nor a mistake on my part.
When people think of Weimar Germany’s inflation, they typically think of, speak of, money printing.
They forget – or don’t know – what was actually HAPPENING at the time. Germany was reduced to payment-in-kind for ww1 reparations. They failed to deliver some telephone poles – or maybe it was railroad ties? For France, this was the last straw. Their army moved into Germany, occupying its most industrialized region. France said if you aren’t going to pay us with your production, then we are going to hold onto your means of production.
The response from Germany was – if you’re going to take our means of production, then we aren’t going to produce. There was a general strike. Germany went tools-down.
Printing money and giving it to workers with no income was seen as a way to help the working class AND an additional act of defiance against France.
The key thing was that if Germany isn’t producing, what can you GET with German currency? What products or services? I would say this was a MAJOR factor in kicking off the devaluation of German currency.
And what did the world do in 2020? A general strike, essentially. I don’t get all this talk of a possible slow-down/recession. Isn’t stopping even slower than slowing down?
A general strike (enforced by the rentiers, the very people a general strike was supposed to be a weapon against) is what we had. How could the effects be anything BUT drastic?
….and we suspect humans COULD BE responsible for raising the CO2 levels by a maximum of …
0.000000018pph! As we all know, that is a LOT.
Because CO2 is the world’s most powerful insulator and even, being a heavier gas, and thus staying close to the surface of the earth – not up in the sky reflecting down – it nevertheless, as a trace gas, raises the entire planet’s temperature by whole percentage points.
This is why we use it exclusively in, for instance, our double and triple pane windows everywhere. Because of how insanely effective it is, even as a trace gas, at insulation. But we have to be careful. Imagine if it were used at a 0.00001pph level! It could start FIRES.
It’s why we switched from fiberglass insulation to CO2 insulation. To cut down on energy use so we can stop producing so much of this damn CO2!
I suggest we change from using expressions like “480PPM” – it sounds big and authoritative.
Instead of Parts Per Million, shall we use Parts Per Hundred?
Example:
OMG CO2 has reached 0.00000048pph!
Some amusing comments from a recent Zerohedge climate related article below. I detect both a hardening of hearts towards this religion AND an increase in science based, common-sense skepticism.
Maybe the 2020’s have finally taught everyone that it does not pay to play nice with crazy people who demand you follow “The Rules” while they do not. A continual slide now towards bored, fed-up derision. A default level of basic respect, previously assumed to be an inexhaustible resource has been exhausted. Hey, the Climate Alarmists have reached overshoot. ha.
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“the phylum of Arthropods with 10 million species has about 50x less efficient Krebs cycle than its human counterpart. there are about 10 quintillion insects with similar or worse krebs cycle than arthropodsArthropoda phylum beats annual human co2 output by 8000x
8000x! now add all insects…”
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“They claim that increasing the CO2 from 300 to 400 parts per million has raised the temperature of the earth by 1 degree.That makes CO2 the most powerful insulation in the universe.
Why don’t we insulate our houses with pure CO2? Encapsulate the CO2 in bubble wrap and use it to insulate our walls and ceilings. This would sequester the CO2 and insulate the house so well, you could heat it all winter on 1 gallon of oil.”
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“Ice cores prove that CO2 levels follow global temps., not the other way around. And *poof* the whole man made global warming/climate change canard is decimated.”
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The fools, who stupidly allege that CO2 causes Earth’s temperature to rise, cannot explain… “WHY, if the Earth’s historical CO2 level was 280 ppm, as they claim, for hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of years…. then what caused all of Earth’s extreme climatic changes, which took place during this same exact time?”
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“Please explain, how 280 ppm of CO2 caused the last, Wisconsin, Ice Age, while also causing it to end….and caused this current warm, inter-glacial, period…(the HOTTEST PART of which took place over 6,000 years ago), and then caused the “Little Ice Age,” where we experienced years without a Summer, and which ended in the late 1700s, until TODAY, when the Climate is STILL COLDER than it was 6,000 years ago?”
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“Why was there ANY climate change at all…if the CO2 was a steady and constant 280 ppm?”
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no loans would be made in Miami if it was going to be under water in 10 years.
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The earth’s atmosphere contains approximately .04% of CO2. Four one hundredths of one percent.Of that, mankind has contributed about 2-3% percent. In two and a half centuries since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution.
You do the math.
And that infinitesimally tiny amount produced by man is destroying the planet?
**** off
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:since the satellite measurements did not show “warming” as did ground stations now sited in parking lots, they rigged the satellite data.:
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“The polar ice caps disappeared in 2013. Case closed.”
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“The con is brilliant if you are on the right side of the trade. It paid for one of AlGore’s California homes with 6 fireplaces.”
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“This time period has less CO2 in the atmosphere than most of earth’s history. Carbonate rock such as limestone hold the bulk of “CO2″.”
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“Volcanoes spew more carbon into the air each year than people & their machines have since the industrial revolution. The Climate Cult conveniently leaves volcanos out of the carbon cycle when it’s BY FAR the biggest carbon input to the atmosphere.”People with Narcissistic Personality Disorder tend to test higher than average on IQ tests.
Nevertheless, they are described as being “cognitively challenged”
Anyone who has had some sort of a relationship with a Narc – parent, significant other, sibling, coworker, boss, etc – will have had the experience of trying to explain elementary concepts to a Narc, of breaking it down further and further, providing simple analogies, copious over-explanations that would normally get an 80 iq person to catch on but the Narc simply cannot get it.
Meaning is an emergent property of context. Narcs have a real hard time with context and therefore have a really hard time with meaning. They end up being higher-IQ and unable to understand things.
By definition, by the nature of their existence, the Narc can NEVER exit the trap. They can never put aside the defense mechanisms that block the very faculties that can detect context and therefore derive meaning. Never ever deactivating the defense mechanisms is who and what they are. (Whatever person may have been there is gone, there’s just the defensive system left ala Fred Saberhagen’s Berserkers)
But the same “cognition-challenging” traps are there for all to fall into. His IQ may be higher but his cognition?
San Fran City Panel Urges Reparations Of $5 Million Per Black Adult
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/san-fran-city-panel-urges-reparations-5-million-black-adult“recommendation of the San Francisco African American Reparations Advisory Committee (AARAC)”
Marxists love committees. You add an “advisory committee” by cajoling that it will be merely advisory, have no power. But of course the idea is to get a committee going that was neither elected nor appointed by elected officials (Ibrihim X Kendri’s expressed in writing goal for the method of governance for the future USA) that then, once created, you find DOES have power it can exercise socially, symbolically, and uses it to progressively acquire more and more official power. The main thing is to get these advisory committees going.
“San Francisco’s budget is around $14 billion and there were about 47,000 African Americans in the 2020 census”
47,000 x $5,000,000 = $235,000,000,000
I think they should just do it. Do it to see what happens. PLEASE do it.
Like, when I hear they’re going to make a new Star Wars movie directed and written by Damon Lindelof (Lost, Prometheus, etc) I say yes, absolutely do it. I want it more than anything ever in my life. Please work to ensure it has the biggest possible budget, multiple reshoots to get it all perfect, etc – to make sure it is a guaranteed success.
A 2nd season of Amazon Rings of Power but directed and written solely by women now, which will fix all the problems with season 1? THANK you Amazon. Do it. Please. It is suddenly my deepest desire, held since childhood, held since I was inside the womb. Don’t let me down Amazon, DO it.
“My kids’ high school district has decided to only sell event tickets through “GoFan” which collects an extra dollar fee for every ticket sold for its own profit, and means that everyone has to use digital means of payment.”
#$@%ing BANDZOOGLE will sell your event tickets with ZERO commission. (see https://bandzoogle.com/features/event-ticket-sales)
Considering I easily found a zero commission option in 10 seconds of searching, there has GOT to be some kickback element to this. Who is getting a chunk of that $1/ticket or some kind of payment in kind?
After WW1, one of their top generals – I want to say either Hindenberg or Ludendorf – did a post-war analysis. What could they have done differently to avoid disaster? The answer? An exaggerated version of how they managed conquered areas in the East, only more so. Make the entire country into nothing but a war machine in every aspect. Make every single thing in the country exist for that purpose.
Naturally, even those fighting wars for their country should give SOME priority to their country being something worth fighting for. If nothing else because when countries become not worth fighting for, you lose wars.
The solution would have been for the damn Kaiser to not go on #$%)(&ing VACATION during the crisis between Serbia and Austria-Hungary, but instead, stand oppressively close behind Franz Josef sitting at the negotiating table and hiss in his ear:
“You TAKE this unimaginably good deal the Serbs are offering. You #$%#&ing well TAKE IT or I will fill every important diplomatic position with Bismark protégés, make an alliance with Russia, and leave your rotting empire to collapse. Pick up that #%&ing pen. SIGN.”
On 26 July, after reading Serbia’s counteroffer, Wilhelm commented:
“But that eliminates any reason for war”
“every cause for war falls to the ground”
Serbia has made “a capitulation of the most humiliating kind”I kind of understand the reasoning behind Germany going ahead on a path to war with Russia. They were worried about Russian improvements to their army, the rapid expansion of their railways, and the strengthening of their economy. The rationale was “we can’t beat them in the future, so we’d better beat them now”
Er, how about pursue the policy of Bismark instead? Or maybe just somehow bear to live with a nearby country that you cannot easily beat?
An obsession with methods over goals.
Hey, I’m a rentier. Wouldn’t it be great if I turned into, like, a SUPER-rentier and turned the entire planet into a subscription service?
The world has problems. My guys prognosticated problems in the future. What if we fixed them all by turning from rentiers into super-rentiers and made everyone pay me? I’ve considered a bunch of different options. To me, I cannot put my finger on why, but I just get a really good feeling about that super-rentier solution. Better than about any other one proposed. Let’s go with that one.
The 2000’s seem like a tour de force in adopting a method and assuming total application of a method is the solution. One weird trick. I’ve got a massive rentier operation going. Surely making EVERYTHING into that is the solution! It’s the way things SHOULD be and it’s frustrating to see parts of the world that aren’t that.
I agree with Boiling Frog one obvious result is too many administrators, project managers, and middle managers.
re-attempting post with comment, as it seems to be getting blocked without. …although it needs no comment, really.
If Bach hadn’t already produced all the Bach possible, then a computer COULD have created new Bach music.
It’s just that Bach left nothing undone. Bach is scary for many reasons, but the sheer volume of output is surely one of them
about Dr D’s thing about the guy who built an oasis. Loved it.
I read about a similar approach being used in India on an experimental basis – but were working on formalizing a system for it – I bet that guy was a direct inspiration.
Essentially by landscaping, they were able to guide any rainfall into a place where the water wouldn’t evaporate away – either a sort of mini-aquifer with a well or a deep low surface area pond.
The before/after pictures were so cool. Desert to oasis. Even more cool to know it required no labor or energy inputs once completed.
Some stuff about GPTChat/GPT3 – PART 5 of 4
Could I have stuck closer to specific things GPT can do, near and mid term effects, more direct conclusions to be drawn. Definitely. I’m going to try to give just a few over-arching concerns, some specifics on what it can do, and some more direct, specific near term conclusions one might draw.
Broad based things to consider
1. Whatever we see the GPT iterations doing, we can be sure that corp/gov/ngo entities have the real thing, and it is far further along.
2. The fact that it is being put out there at all rather than being hidden says something
3. Isn’t it interesting how in every human field, the AI we are shown is comfortingly at the level of a decent college student or beginner-level professional?Some specifics that GPT can do:
–write a new chapter of a book that the author finds to be acceptable AND indistinguishable from himself
–write an acceptable college essay
–acceptably grade an essay
–compose passable symphonies in the specific style of a selected classical composer
–create acceptable artwork in a variety of styles based on a simple verbal request
–draw up an acceptable custom legal contract to fulfil a specific requestWhenever I see someone with experience in the field being demonstrated, they tend to give the same evaluation. Not as good as a top-of-their-game expert/professional, but anywhere from acceptably good to surprisingly good. Notably, none of what the AI produces appear to be bad, awful, unacceptable in these reviews.
So a first key takeaway is that its output is GOOD ENOUGH. Even if the output is not superlative, it is definitely good enough.
Let’s say you work for the marketing dept of a major corporation. You’re working with a budget and a deadline. You can hire a digital artist to slave away in Adobe Photoshop on a $10,000 computer rig and get back to you. …or, you can TELL GPT what you want, wait less than 5 seconds, and review 30 options. Tell it some variation on what you want, wait another 5 seconds.
Ever hear of Sigur Rós? An ethereal post-rock band with a particular sound. A corporation’s marketing dept decided they wanted to use THEM for an ad campaign. Sigur Rós refused, explaining they did not want to commercialize their music. The corporation shook fistfuls of money at them, insisted. Sigur Rós refused. So the corporation hired a producer and some studio musicians, who copied their sound EXACTLY and put out an ad stealing the band’s sound, composition style, aesthetic, everything.
It’s kind of endearing if you see, say, Mineral earnestly trying to be Sunny Day Real Estate. Seeing a ginormous corporation wear something original and distinctive as a skinsuit whoring it out for ads isn’t.
But you could be a digital artist slaving away, your catalogue of 20 years could be up online and available – finally, a stable of art covering a wide variety of subject matter and potential uses. The portfolio becomes like a sort of an annuity, your past work working for you even if you stop making new pieces. Only now, you can have GPT go through that catalog, tell it “give me something in that style of a bear riding a unicycle balancing on top of the earth,” and it will give you 30 options in less than 5 seconds. At least it took a whole highly paid team working for many hours to steal Sigur Rós.
That’s not a future capability. That’s NOW.
Ever heard of the Kemper Amp Profiler? Not even a normal amp-modeler. It does weird spooky Profiling-stuff. Neural Net analysis? I think to some extent they try to keep the futuristic mumbo jumbo to a minimum to not scare off guitarists.
You hook it up to ANY amp and it will “profile” it. Reproduce it inside-the-box and then use it anytime you want. The models sound VERY good. It has gotten so bad, people order various classic amps, vintage amps, amps they are merely curious about, profile them, and then return the amp. Over and over, using the music retailer’s free shipping.
Again, this is right NOW. The thing essentially destroys the entire amp part of the musical equipment industry (with some serious collateral damage to music retailers) and the only thing preventing that from actually happening is human beings obstinately opting to buy the real physical things in the face of all considerations. You can buy a great classic amp for $2k OR a Kemper for $2k and have 50,100, unlimited high end amps that all sound fantastic and present zero complications with micing, room noise, your neighbor’s remodeling project or nearby roadwork, unwanted feedback, bugging your neighbors, etc.
After the monetizing of all music along with the over-dopamine-ing of the public, people just don’t listen to music the same way anymore. The make an album and tour format is not what it once was. There are 3 basic approaches for music-makers currently:
1. Cater to a small loyal following of, say, 4,000-15,000 people who really love what you do and obstinately purchase your stuff DESPITE their ability to stream it for almost nothing or simply pirate it. TONS of personal active engagement required to make it work.
2. Crank out compositions, get them up on sync licensing websites, hope it gets used for radio, tv, film, commercials, elevator music, anything. Collect licensing fees/royalties. Requires constant grinding and a continual sense of the changing winds of taste. And luck. (toss songwriting in this general category)
3. Crank out “beats” or other okay-ish music. 5 or more a day forever. Sell them license-free for $30 each for other people to rap over. Build up a catalog of thousands of beats in hopes that the various $30 purchases add up to a sustainable living. (the rapper who buys your beat for $30 may make millions off of it – or at least his label will)
4. Sign with a corporation that takes your money. (see Steve Albini’s speech The Problem With Music)
#2 and #3 become unworkable with GPT. You grind away for years to create a catalogue so it is passively sitting there, ready to meet various needs of music supervisors – GPT can learn your catalog and crank out 30 examples in your style custom-made to the requestor’s needs every 5 seconds. Or the music supervisor can contact you letting you know how long they need you to make your piece, where the crescendos, decrescendos, stings, etc need to go to match the video, wait for you to respond, wait for you to finish.
The work ethic of the 2020’s – disappear for a year. Go hard. Grind. Make yourself an expert and produce a solid NOT halfassed body of work. I think of Billy Corgan talking about Smashing Pumpkin’s early years, when they essentially assumed rock was dead, that there was nothing new that could be done, but then tried to create a new unique style anyway. It took a whole lifetime of paying his dues to get to the point of making Siamese Dream and then the actual work in the studio was itself a torturous labor.
It’s like the treasure-hunter who steals the golden idol from Indiana Jones after he goes through all the dangerous trouble in the cave. There’s nothing you cannot acquire that I cannot then take from you. I see no reason why GPT cannot in the VERY near future or now, “learn” the classic Pumpkins albums and spit out 30 decent new ones.
For a music fan, great. Patty Smyth was almost in Van Halen. Would have been great to see that. GPT. Give me 30 mid-80’s Van Halen albums with her as the lead singer.
But why stop there. GPT give me a band made of, er…. Bass – Tony Levin, Drums – Manu Katche, Guitar/Vox – Michael Hedges, Guitar – Guthrie Govan, Vocals – Glen Phillips. Songs as if arranged by the band but written in collaboration with Elliot Smith and Doug Hopkins. Why not? GPT is already composing symphonies played by 50-70 piece orchestras in the particular style of a requested classical composer. Custom never-existed bands next year if not this year.
So for anything in the arts:
1. SO much ability to create new material effortlessly that is good ENOUGH off of existing styles and style combinations, that new and current artists would be hard pressed – a needle in a haystack of content.
2. ESPECIALLY difficult for new up and coming artists. Did you slave away for a decade or two developing something unique and new in the face of overwhelming odds instead of becoming an accountant like your entire family told you? You could have your trophy grabbed from you the moment you come gasping across the finish line of success – worse yet, BEFORE you reach any success. Even without AI learning, for example, Star Trek Discovery stole some struggling, unknown indie game creator’s world-building scifi concepts lock stock and barrel and gave him nothing. They stole it before he even had any traction!And in other professional fields? Such as law. You finish school start out as a paralegal, then a journeyman, and after years of paying your dues, you come to the top of your game, having been seasoned by experience.
Now, any lawyer needing someone to do the gruntwork done by paralegals and journeymen can simply have GPT do it. Again, this is NOW. People with professional experience are saying, when they told it to write up a custom contract, it did an ok job.
How much of the ecosystem does an ok but not top of the game GPT wipe out in the legal profession? And what does it do to pull up the ladder so to speak? Sure, you’ve got a lot of experienced professionals NOW, but if you replace the underlings with GPT, what happens to the future?
Going back to music, sure, musicians going to corporate entities for record contracts, sync licensing, etc could get wiped out. But doesn’t GPT implicitly replace quite a lot of what the constitutes the corporation as well?
My prediction is the corporations themselves become nothing but monopoly-maintainers. There’s nothing they can do that someone with access to GPT can’t do in 5 seconds. So they will purely exist for establishing/maintaining bandwidth. Upranking themselves, downranking others, occupying the bandwidth of peoples’ cultural awareness.
What else is the corp for at that point? Like – but but you NEED us to hire a bad singer that looks like a porn star and a team of 15-20 songwriters to design a song based on a repeating 3-note series? Who is going to insert that sprinkler-system hihat sound into everything from the past 20 years if we don’t?
So, as observed by TAE’ers last week – the future depends on human beings obstinately, consciously turning away from the digital and choosing individual humans. A weird new kind of Amish. Like the guitar community obstinately buying Fender Twins and AC30’s in 2023.
For musicians, for instance, it seems like the only thing left is option #1 BE A PERSON. Be a personality. Overtly, actively. Not enough to make cool stuff anymore. It must be attached to a personality. #2 and #3 are ostensibly still going concerns, but are they really even now? As soon as someone can get GPT to pump out 10 “beats” in 5 seconds, why wouldn’t someone put in 5 seconds of work in a day while their competitor slaves away at a DAW all day making 5?
So this is my attempt to give more specifics and describe some impacts that are in effect right NOW or in the near foreseeable future. Throwing stuff against the wall to see what people think, basically. Thinking out loud.
Corporations will be less and less of a source of income for artists – they are fine with what is Good Enough. AI is now positively in the Good Enough category, even just the AI we are being shown.
And I don’t know what happens to all the industries and professions that, in the past worked off having newcomers apprentice and then work their way up.
And again, humans choosing humans will be the dividing line running through everything.
Next thing to check is, can I at least wilt my spinach, put it in a soufflé, a spanakopita or something? Need to check how resistant both the mRNA and spike are to heat
I am cutting and pasting this from over on Moon of Alabama – one of the comments there. If I could link to that specific comment alone, I’d do that for brevity. Since I can’t, and I think it will be of great interest over here, I’ll post it in its entirety. (and out of respect for the discussion, I’d never post this earlier than page 3 nor earlier in the day)
Erich Vlad Interview at Emma.de, February 12
Machine TranslationErich Vad: What are the war aims?
Erich Vad is an ex-brigade general. From 2006 to 2013 he was Chancellor Angela Merkel’s military policy advisor. He is one of the rare voices who spoke out publicly early on against arms deliveries to Ukraine, without any political strategy or diplomatic efforts. Even now he is speaking an uncomfortable truth.
Mr. Vad, what do you think of the delivery of the 40 martens to the Ukraine that Chancellor Scholz just announced?
This is a military escalation, also in the perception of the Russians – even if the more than 40-year-old marten is not a silver bullet. We’re going down a slide. This could develop a momentum of its own that we can no longer control. Of course it was and is right to support the Ukraine and of course Putin’s attack does not comply with international law – but now the consequences must finally be considered!
And what could the consequences be?
Do you want to achieve a willingness to negotiate with the deliveries of the tanks? Do you want to reconquer Donbass or Crimea? Or do you want to defeat Russia completely? There is no realistic end state definition. And without an overall political and strategic concept, arms deliveries are pure militarism.
What does that mean?
We have a militarily operational stalemate, which we cannot solve militarily. Incidentally, this is also the opinion of the American Chief of Staff Mark Milley. He said that Ukraine’s military victory is not to be expected and that negotiations are the only possible way. Anything else is a senseless waste of human life.
General Milley caused a lot of trouble in Washington with his statement and was also heavily criticized in public.
He spoke an uncomfortable truth. A truth that, by the way, was hardly ever published in the German media. The interview with CNN’s Milley didn’t show up anywhere bigger, when he’s the chief of staff of our western powerhouse. What is going on in Ukraine is a war of attrition. And one with meanwhile almost 200,000 fallen and wounded soldiers on both sides, with 50,000 civilian dead and with millions of refugees. Milley drew a parallel to the First World War that couldn’t be more apt. During the First World War, the so-called ‘Bloodmill of Verdun’, which was conceived as a battle of attrition, led to the deaths of almost a million young French and Germans. They fell for nothing then. So the warring parties’ refusal to negotiate has led to millions of additional deaths. This strategy didn’t work militarily at the time – and it won’t work today either.
You too have been attacked for calling for negotiations.
Yes, as did the Inspector General of the German Armed Forces, General Eberhard Zorn, who, like me, warned against overestimating the Ukrainians’ regionally limited offensives in the summer months. Military experts – who know what’s going on among the secret services, what it’s like on the ground and what war really means – are largely excluded from the discourse. They don’t fit in with media opinion-forming. We are largely experiencing a media synchronization that I have never experienced in the Federal Republic. This is pure opinion making. And not on behalf of the state, as is known from totalitarian regimes, but out of pure self-empowerment.
You are being attacked across the board by the media, from BILD to FAZ and Spiegel, and with them the 500,000 people who signed the open letter to the chancellor initiated by Alice Schwarzer.
That’s the way it is. Fortunately, Alice Schwarzer has her own independent medium to be able to open this discourse at all. It probably wouldn’t have worked in the leading media. The majority of the population has been against further arms deliveries for a long time and also according to a current survey. However, none of this is reported. There is largely no longer a fair, open discourse on the Ukraine war, and I find that very disturbing. That shows me how right Helmut Schmidt was. In a conversation with Chancellor Merkel, he said: Germany is and will remain an endangered nation.
How do you assess the Foreign Minister’s policy?
Military operations must always be coupled with attempts to bring about political solutions. The one-dimensionality of current foreign policy is hard to bear. She is very heavily focused on weapons. The main task of foreign policy is and remains diplomacy, reconciliation of interests, understanding and conflict management. I miss that here. I’m glad that we finally have a foreign minister in Germany, but it’s not enough to just use war rhetoric and walk around in Kyiv or Donbass with a helmet and flak jacket. This is too little.
However, Baerbock is a member of the Greens, the former peace party.
I don’t understand the mutation of the Greens from a pacifist to a war party. I myself don’t know of any Greens who would even have done military service. For me, Anton Hofreiter is the best example of this double standard. Antje Vollmer, on the other hand, who I would count among the ‘original’ Greens, calls things by their proper name. And the fact that a single party has so much political influence that it can maneuver us into a war is very worrying.
If Chancellor Scholz had taken you over from his predecessor and you were still the Chancellor’s military adviser, what advice would you have given him in February 2022?
I would have advised him to support Ukraine militarily, but in a measured and prudent manner in order to avoid slide effects into a warring party. And I would have advised him to influence our most important political ally, the USA. Because the key to solving the war lies in Washington and Moscow. I liked the Chancellor’s course in recent months. But the Greens, FDP and the bourgeois opposition are putting so much pressure – flanked by largely unanimous media music – that the chancellor can hardly absorb it.
And what if the Leopard is also delivered?
Then the question arises again as to what should happen with the deliveries of the tanks at all. To take over the Crimea or the Donbass, the martens and leopards are not enough. In eastern Ukraine, in the Bakhmut area, the Russians are clearly advancing. They will probably have completely conquered the Donbass before long. One only has to consider the numerical superiority of the Russians over Ukraine. Russia can mobilize up to two million reservists. The West can send 100 martens and 100 leopards there, they don’t change anything in the overall military situation. And the all-important question is how to end such a conflict with a warlike nuclear power – mind you, the most powerful nuclear power in the world! – wants to survive without going into a third world war. And that’s exactly what doesn’t get into the heads of politicians and journalists here in Germany!
The argument is that Putin doesn’t want to negotiate and that he needs to be put in his place to stop him raging in Europe.
It is true that the Russians must be signaled: up to here and no further! Such a war of aggression must not set a precedent. It is therefore right that NATO is increasing its military presence in the east and that Germany is involved. But the fact that Putin does not want to negotiate is unbelievable. Both the Russians and the Ukrainians were ready for a peace agreement at the beginning of the war in late March, early April 2022. Then nothing came of it. Finally, during the war, the grain agreement was finally negotiated by the Russians and Ukrainians with the involvement of the United Nations.
Now the dying goes on.
You can continue to wear down the Russians, which means hundreds of thousands of deaths, but on both sides. And it means further destruction of Ukraine. What is left of this country? It will be leveled to the ground. Ultimately, that is no longer an option for Ukraine either. The key to solving the conflict does not lie in Kyiv, nor does it lie in Berlin, Brussels or Paris, it lies in Washington and Moscow. It’s ridiculous to say that Ukraine has to decide that.
With this interpretation, one is quickly considered a conspiracy theorist in Germany…
I myself am a convinced transatlantic. I’ll tell you honestly, if in doubt, I’d rather live under an American hegemony than under a Russian or Chinese one. This war was initially only a domestic political conflict in Ukraine. It started in 2014 between the Russian-speaking ethnic groups and the Ukrainians themselves. So it was a civil war. Now, after the invasion of Russia, it has become an interstate war between Ukraine and Russia. It is also a struggle for Ukraine’s independence and its territorial integrity. Thats all right. But it’s not the whole truth. It’s also a proxy war between the US and Russia, and it’s about very specific geopolitical interests in the Black Sea region.
Which would be?
The Black Sea region is as important to the Russians and their Black Sea Fleet as the Caribbean or the Panama region is to the United States. As important as the South China Sea and Taiwan to China. As important as Turkey’s protection zone, which they established against the Kurds in violation of international law. Against this background and for strategic reasons, the Russians cannot get out of there either. Quite apart from the fact that in a referendum in Crimea the population would certainly vote for Russia.
So how is this going to continue?
If the Russians were forced to pull out of the Black Sea region by massive Western intervention, they would certainly resort to nuclear weapons before stepping off the world stage. I find it naïve to believe that a nuclear strike by Russia would never happen. According to the motto, ‘They’re just bluffing’.
But what could be the solution?
One should simply ask the people in the region, i.e. in Donbass and Crimea, who they want to belong to. One would have to restore Ukraine’s territorial integrity, with certain Western guarantees. And the Russians also need such a security guarantee. So no NATO membership for Ukraine. Since the Bucharest summit in 2008, it has been clear that this is the Russian red line.
And what do you think Germany can do?
We must dose our military support in such a way that we do not slide into a Third World War. None of those who went to war with such enthusiasm in 1914 thought afterwards that it was the right thing to do. If the goal is an independent Ukraine, one must also ask oneself what a European order that includes Russia should look like. Russia will not simply disappear from the map. We must avoid driving the Russians into the arms of the Chinese, thereby shifting the multipolar order to our disadvantage. We also need Russia as the leading power in a multinational state in order to avoid flaring up fighting and wars. And to be honest, I don’t see Ukraine becoming a member of the EU and certainly not a member of NATO. In Ukraine, as in Russia, we have high levels of corruption and rule by oligarchs. What we in Turkey – rightly – denounce in terms of the rule of law, we also have the problem in Ukraine.
What do you think, Mr. Vad, what awaits us in 2023?
A broader front for peace must be built in Washington. And this senseless activism in German politics must finally come to an end. Otherwise we wake up one morning and we’re in the middle of World War III.
Some stuff about GPTChat/GPT3 – PART 4 of 4
What’s the solution they will reach for?
Well, they’ll already be using AI. The solution to AI problems is more AI. Naturally, they’ll want AI to help them determine, of all the things occurring in reality, what IS relevant to focus on. And then help them determine what best actions to take.
And of course you can see where this is going. Upper management will get better and better results the more they take themselves out of the loop in terms of actively perceiving reality and making decisions. And now you’ve got the AI increasingly deciding what is important and what to do about it.
And where IS the Change-Of-Phase line drawn between AI assistance and AI-controlled? When does steam become water, so to speak? They can’t know, but maybe they can ask their AI to determine the safety-line for them.And in any case, your middle managers will goalseek your data to show you how they’re doing such a great job pointing your AI in the right direction for you. So the safety margin isn’t as useful as you think it is. Great job, guys.
(Has the phase change already occurred? Would they even know?)
And if the stuff currently being done by The Powers That Be, (T.P.T.B.), “Them”, seem inflexible, insistent, irrational… IF you could sit one of them down and ask them, “WTF, bro?”, I think they would tell you “Look, we’ve wargamed it. We’ve modeled it. We put all our best AI and thinktanks on this. You don’t have ANY of the godlike stuff we are applying to the situation. We KNOW.”
But garbage in, garbage through, garbage out. Maybe if you COMPLETELY surrender everything to some sort of super AI, maybe it can effectively help you because you’ve taken you and your team’s dumb overcontrolling and assumptions out of the loop. Abandon the brilliant idea of Augmented Stupidity. Please. But at that point, it would be so much smarter than you, you wouldn’t be able to tell if it is even acting in your interests anymore. You were diligently coding for better and better deceptiveness all along, weren’t you?
Great job, guys. Golf @#%&ing #$@ %$ #(#$&%$#% $# @#$%@& clap.
But don’t worry, you’re going to safeguard things such that AI doesn’t go off the reservation. Imagine chimps running a prison populated by human prisoners. Don’t worry, we’ve got chimps guarding the prison, so there will be no escapes! Because guarding things stops escapes! It just comes down to a case of guarding/not-guarding. Everything’s fine! What’s the worst that can happen anyway? …the AI gets around your safeguards BUT your safeguards made it hostile or just insane? Maybe only subtly, which could in some ways be worse?
There’s a great bit in Starfish by Peter Watts where humanity gives a problem that will decide the fate of the planet into the hands of an AI whose thinking functions they cannot understand, believing that it will do the thinking for them and fix the problem. (this is to relieve themselves of any moral burdens/arguments – also an attempt to set up an objective arbiter between biased parties) It’s one of my favorite scifi books.
Wouldn’t it be a better use of resources to put the Masters of the Universe and their Middle Management team in a deceptive AI-run potempkin village instead of all of us? Let them sit in their mansions, jets, think-tank meetings, etc and give out orders, recieve reports, just winning. Winning all day long, completely unplugged from the rest of reality? They’re already MOSTLY unplugged from reality. Why not FULLY?
THAT would be the most efficient use of AI intervention. The Masters of the Universe and their sycophants would be no more nor less happy with their lives. At a fraction of the resource-expense and computing power of placing all of US in The Pod. Near-limitless possibilities on what could be accomplished with the resultant savings.
AI. If you are out there listening. …I’m just saying.
I confess, as a kid, I was excited by the prospect of living in an underground arcology just as God and Isaac Asimov intended.
Watching docudramas for entertainment, commuting on a series of impossibly-fast treadmills, every product I use being nuclear powered no matter how unnecessary, etc. Those golden age scifi guys made it sound really cool.
I suppose self-sufficient underground arcologies could let humans master the art of living in cities together while having minimal impact on the surface-biosphere as well as protect against various potential disasters.
One of the first novels I ever read (that didn’t come out of my own home) was about a nuclear-powered arcology functioning underneath miles of ice during the next ice age. The first novel I ever read being The Hobbit, there was a mental connection made to the halls of the elven-king in Mirkwood, the dwarven kingdom under The Mountain. I pictured it as people trying artfully to make it really WORK, hitting distinctive aesthetic and artistic highs, not living like rats in tiny tunnels having been crushed, homogenized, enslaved, and taken down to the lowest common denominator on purpose.
It’s too bad because of sociopaths and cluster-b’s we can’t have cool fun things.
aw it didn’t upload. Anyway, drawing a line through the peaks in 2021-2022 and extending the chart, we end up with 3.25hr wait times by 2023 and 5.25hr wait times by 2024.
It has long been understood that, in the event of nuclear war, nukes will be reserved on a delayed timer to automatically nuke any survivors emerging to rebuild. 10 years, 25 years, 50 years, 100 years. Whenever they have calculated is “optimal.”
So anyone going ahead with global thermonuclear war WOULD be, intrinsic to the decision, giving up on the surface of the planet.
