kimyo99
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if 40% of americans get covid19 and the mortality rate is 1% that’s ~8 million dead. it’s beginning to seem to me that many more americans will instead suffer from the secondary effects of the crisis. recovering from a wildfire in california or a tornado in the midwest will take much longer than usual when utility workers are quarantined and replacement parts are unavailable.
it’s likely that parts of the country will lose electricity and water for an extended period. those who can will leave. those left behind who require medicine or medical care or food…..?
if the cdc is not considering scenarios such as this then they are completely inept. they’re probably too busy arranging for ‘great job brownie’-style press releases and maxing out performance bonuses now that the money is flowing.
this is the message the cdc needs to send:
Containment has failed. And so now we must fight.
unfortunately, i can’t imagine them saying anything even remotely like this until it’s way too late.
I cannot find characteristic phases of the growth cycle , Growth Rate and Generation Time for virus?
this paper states that the doubling time is 6.4 days. if correct, roughly speaking, south korea, at 763 cases today, will hit 50,000 cases before the end of march. it follows that south korea will need to prepare to hospitalize ~10,000 patients.
In our baseline scenario, we estimated that the basic reproductive number for 2019-nCoV was 2·68 (95% CrI 2·47–2·86) and that 75 815 individuals (95% CrI 37 304–130 330) have been infected in Wuhan as of Jan 25, 2020. <b>The epidemic doubling time was 6·4 days</b> (95% CrI 5·8–7·1).
given regular asymptomatic transmission and frequent false negative test results the cdc (or your local govt health agency) should immediately advise healthcare/grid/refinery/law enforcement/emergency services to avoid all public gatherings and adopt stringent hygiene protocols.
if they wait until a local covid outbreak has developed it will be too late. the time to protect these critical people is now.
Bizarre news item: In January, several individuals on a Paris takeoff flight bound for Shanghai were diagnosed with the #Coronavirus— in the opposite travel direction of the outbreak epicenter.
(going there, sorry) the world leader who benefits most in the short term from covid-19 is macron. allowing the virus to spread throughout france is a sure way to shut down the yellow vest/pension movements.
Newer studies suggest the virus can survive 9 days on surfaces
from that article
The evaluated studies, which focus on the pathogens Sars coronavirus and Mers coronavirus, showed, for example, that <b>the viruses can persist on surfaces and remain infectious at room temperature for up to nine days.</b> On average, they survive between four and five days. <b>”Low temperature and high air humidity further increase their lifespan,”</b> points out Kampf.
if i’m reading that correctly, nine days is not the upper limit if ‘low temps / high humidity’ are present. as, say, one would find on a freight vessel or cruise ship during the wintertime.
also, re: trump’s ‘april high heat’ – both sars and mers were very active in may/june/july.
