Mar 152020
 


Dorothea Lange One nation indivisible. San Francisco 1942

 

New York Will Be The Next Italy (M.)
America Has No Real Public Health System – Coronavirus Has A Clear Run (Reich)
Hoboken Mayor Imposes Mandatory Nightly Curfew (NBC)
Coronavirus: Why It’s So Deadly In Italy (M.)
France, Spain Implement Massive and Dramatic Quarantine Restrictions (Slate)
UK Doctor: ‘We Don’t Have The Masks, Goggles – Or The Staff’ (G.)
China Could Have Cut 95% Of Cases If It Acted On Whistleblower Warning (HKFP)
Japanese Man Tests Positive For Coronavirus, Again (NHK)
Anti-Inflammatories May Aggravate COVID-19, France Advises (G.)
Google Says It Is Developing A Nationwide Coronavirus Website (R.)
Fed May Announce Commercial Paper Facilities Sunday – BofA (R.)
American Airlines To Cut Nearly All Long-Haul International Flights (R.)
Virgin Atlantic Boss Seeks £7.5 Billion UK Airline Bailout (R.)
‘Euroleaks’: Varoufakis Leaks Recordings Of Secretive Eurogroup Talks (RT)

 

 

France, Spain increase their lockdown measures, but France and Germany still exist on holding their municipal elections. Must be more important than virus response. More important than the survival of small firms too.

In France, over half of COVID19 patients in intensive care are under 60. Holland has 40-50 patients in intensive care, over half of whom are under 50. Some are children. The family of a 16-year old boy on life support in IC pleads with people to take the disease seriously.

Politicians of all colors invent the wheel as they go along, mostly as ignorant as the media whose ignorant news stories they base their decisions on. The model is simple: do the same as others do, so you can blame them when things go awry.

Belgium shut all its stores and bars, Holland did not yet, so Belgians go drinking in cramped Dutch bars en masse. The EU says it has few powers in this, thus ensuring it can’t be blamed.

The US is set for the worst disaster of all, it has to enforce travel restrictions very rapidly or else, ground domestic flights, close down highways, the works. And get hospitals working for ten times as many patients as they’re designed for. Good luck.

The calls for a UBI will grow louder at both sides of the Atlantic, and the power bastions will reject them with equal vehemence and bail out zombie companies instead. Our political systems work only in good times.

 

Cases 157,477 (+ 11,150 from yesterday’s 146,327)

Deaths 5,845 (+ 402 from yesterday’s 5,443)

 

The numbers in this graph are terrifying. 3,500 new cases in Italy in 24 hours.

From Worldometer yesterday evening (before their day’s close)

 

 

This set of graphs from Worldometer has turned almost straight north:

From Worldometer (NOTE: mortality rate is back up to 7%!)

 

 

From SCMP: (Note: the SCMP graph was useful when China was the focal point; they are falling behind now)

 

 

From COVID2019.app: (New format lacks new cases and deaths)

 

 

 

 

“Close everything but grocery stores, banks, and pharmacies. Convert schools into food distribution centers. Bring in the National Guard to provide essential services like food and augment police and emergency services. Issue checks to all New Yorkers for the length of the quarantine for at least $500 per person per month.”

New York Will Be The Next Italy (M.)

Analysis strongly suggests that the NYC metro area has 5–10 days to quarantine the city or face dramatically overwhelmed hospitals, extremely high death rates, and a ruined economy. The outlook for NYC and COVID-19 is bleak. The policy response is far too slow and too weak to meet the needs of the moment.

The Analysis – The NYC region has approximately 400 cases reported as of Friday Mar 13. That number is obviously an underestimate. After accounting for undercounting of asymptomatic cases and failing to detect cases due to under testing, we estimate that between 1,281 and 2,280 people are infected as of yesterday.

Using an SIR Epidemiology Model (described in greater detail in my previous Medium post), we can use the Low and High estimates for infections on 3/13 to project #COVID19 growth through March. Then using those projections for infections, we can use a conservative 10% severity rate to get the number of people who are infected on that day that will require hospitalization (severe & critical cases).

The NYC region has between 1,200 and 3,000 open hospital beds. This analysis suggests that enough people will become infected by March 23 and March 25 that NYC’s hospitals will be fully at capacity approximately 7 days later. (Infected people who will become severely ill do not immediately need medical care upon being infected. There is approximately a 5–7 day incubation period. After which, most severe cases present to the hospital within 2–3 days.)

The Obvious Choice – NYC must implement more severe social distancing measures and potentially fully shut down no later than a week from now in order to avoid overwhelming its hospital system. Think about the choices here: The Status Quo: The governor and the mayor continue to allow the virus to spread at schools, subways, restaurants, cafes, and workplaces. This is the exact same approach Italy took at the beginning of its outbreak. Seriously take a look at this article from two and a half weeks ago when Italy only had 160 cases (vs NYC’s 500+).

“Strict emergency measures were put in place over the weekend, including a ban on public events in at least 10 municipalities, after a spike in confirmed cases in the northern regions of Lombardy and Veneto. Italy’s Health Minister Roberto Speranza announced severe restrictions in the affected regions, which included the closure of public buildings, limited transport, and the surveillance and quarantine of individuals who may have been exposed to the virus. “We are asking basically that everyone who has come from areas stricken by the epidemic to remain under a mandatory house stay,” Speranza said at a Saturday press conference.” — CNN, Feb 24 2020

Sound familiar? It’s the exact same thing New York is trying now. It won’t work here either. After that fails here too, we will wind up with the Italian situation. Overflowing hospitals. Demand at two, three, five times the capacity of the hospitals’ ability to deliver care. What’s worse is that their capacity will decline as cases overflow. Their doctors and nurses will be exposed and have to be quarantined, reducing an already strained workforce. Soon after, chaos in the hospitals will lead to fear in the whole city. You will see reports of people dying in their apartments because there isn’t capacity for them in hospitals. This fear alone will shut down the city. The economy will be ruined and tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of New Yorkers will die this year. This could all start at the beginning of April, if we don’t act within the next 5–10 days.

The Better Alternative: Shut down the city this week. Close everything but grocery stores, banks, and pharmacies. Convert schools into food distribution centers. Bring in the National Guard to provide essential services like food and augment police and emergency services. Issue checks to all New Yorkers for the length of the quarantine for at least $500 per person per month. Limit travel outside of the region. Slow the growth of the virus to a crawl immediately.

Read more …

“In America, the word ‘public’ means a sum total of individual needs, not the common good..”

Robert Reich has drowned himself for 3 years in repetitious and utterly boring Orange Man Bad rhetoric, but this is worth a read.

America Has No Real Public Health System – Coronavirus Has A Clear Run (Reich)

As the coronavirus outbreak in the US follows the same grim exponential growth path first displayed in Wuhan, China, before herculean measures were put in place to slow its spread there, America is waking up to the fact that it has almost no public capacity to deal with it. Instead of a public health system, we have a private for-profit system for individuals lucky enough to afford it and a rickety social insurance system for people fortunate enough to have a full-time job. At their best, both systems respond to the needs of individuals rather than the needs of the public as a whole. In America, the word “public” – as in public health, public education or public welfare – means a sum total of individual needs, not the common good.

Contrast this with America’s financial system. The Federal Reserve concerns itself with the health of financial markets as a whole. Late last week the Fed made $1.5tn available to banks, at the slightest hint of difficulties making trades. No one batted an eye. When it comes to the health of the nation as a whole, money like this isn’t available. And there are no institutions analogous to the Fed with responsibility for overseeing and managing the public’s health – able to whip out a giant checkbook at a moment’s notice to prevent human, rather than financial, devastation. Even if a test for the Covid-19 virus had been developed and approved in time, no institutions are in place to administer it to tens of millions of Americans free of charge. Local and state health departments are already bare bones, having lost nearly a quarter of their workforce since 2008, according to the National Association of County and City Health Officials.

Healthcare in America is delivered mainly by private for-profit corporations which, unlike financial institutions, are not required to maintain reserve capacity. As a result, the nation’s supply of ventilators isn’t nearly large enough to care for projected numbers of critically ill coronavirus victims unable to breathe for themselves. Its 45,000 intensive care unit beds fall woefully short of the 2.9 million likely to be needed. The Fed can close banks to quarantine financial crises but the US can’t close workplaces because the nation’s social insurance system depends on people going to work. Almost 30% of American workers have no paid sick leave from their employers, including 70% of low-income workers earning less than $10.49 an hour.

Vast numbers of self-employed workers cannot afford sick leave. Friday’s deal between House Democrats and the White House won’t have much effect because it exempts large employers and offers waivers to smaller ones. Most jobless Americans don’t qualify for unemployment insurance because they haven’t worked long enough in a steady job and the ad-hoc deal doesn’t alter this. Meanwhile, more than 30 million Americans have no health insurance.

Read more …

Each on and for his own.

Hoboken Mayor Imposes Mandatory Nightly Curfew (NBC)

Days after Hoboken officials announced the city’s first positive case of COVID-19, the mayor declared a mandatory nightly curfew in the latest attempt to stop the spread of the virus. Mayor Bhalla detailed the curfew in a city blogpost late Saturday night, outlining the details of a nightly curfew that will run from 10 p.m. and end at 5 a.m. each night. The curfew is scheduled to begin Monday evening. All Hoboken residents will be required to remain indoors during the curfew hours except for emergencies and required work, the mayor said.


“As I am writing this message on a Saturday evening, I received a call from our Police Chief Kenneth Ferrante notifying me of a bar fight in downtown Hoboken, with at least one person falling in and out of consciousness, and our police having to wait for over 30 minutes for an ambulance to arrive, because our EMS is inundated with service calls,” the mayor said in an online statement. “This is unfortunately a contributing factor why we cannot continue bar operations which can trigger calls for service that are delayed in part because of this public health crisis.” In addition to nightly curfews, restaurants and bars within city limits will only be allowed to offer takeout and delivery options, the mayor said. Food and drink establishments will not be allowed to seat diners during the mandated curfew.

Read more …

Sort of nice, but not satisfying for me. The tweet below says why: testing “methods” are very different. South Korea tests everyone, Italy only tests suspected cases.

Coronavirus: Why It’s So Deadly In Italy (M.)

Many people have already pointed out that Italy has an older population than South Korea. The higher Italian CFR might therefore reflect a higher likelihood that an old person becomes infected with the coronavirus simply because there are more old people among the Italian population. We can easily check the plausibility of this argument by comparing the age structure of the coronavirus cases with the age structure of the total population for both countries. The population data are from the United Nations’ World Population Prospect 2019.


In South Korea, the age structure of the coronavirus cases is remarkably similar to the age structure of the population, in particular for the older age groups. The 20–29-year-olds are still hugely overrepresented among the confirmed cases relative to their population share, but their surplus is balanced by the underrepresentation of cases among the 0–9- and 10–19-year-olds. These three youngest age groups face a very low risk of dying from COVID-19. The South Korean CFR is hence not depressed or exaggerated by an under- or overrepresentation of older Koreans among the confirmed cases.

The same is not true for Italy: The share of confirmed cases at age 70–79 exceeds the population share of this age group by more than a factor of two. Among those aged 80 and more, the case share is almost three times as high as the population share. By contrast, young people and hence low-fatality-risk people are visibly underrepresented among the confirmed cases.

Hence, the question remains why the age distribution of cases is shaped so differently in Italy compared to South Korea. It has also been pointed out that the testing procedures for coronavirus in the countries are very different — Italy has predominantly been testing people with symptoms of a coronavirus infection, while South Korea has been testing basically everyone since the outbreak had become apparent. Consequently, South Korea has detected more asymptomatic, but positive cases of coronavirus than Italy, in particular among young people.

Read more …

The continent locks down. People expect this to last 2 weeks or so. What happens if that becomes 4 months?

France, Spain Implement Massive and Dramatic Quarantine Restrictions (Slate)

More European nations have joined Italy in enacting dramatic measures meant to keep their citizens in their homes for all but the most necessary of circumstances in an effort to slow the spread of the novel coronavirus. On Saturday, Spain ordered all of its citizens to stay in their homes unless they absolutely have to leave to go to work, buy food, seek medical care, or help out elderly or otherwise vulnerable people in need of assistance. All bars, restaurants, and schools were ordered to close. France also ordered all restaurants, bars, cafes, movie theaters, and other “non-indispensable businesses” to close starting at midnight. Grocery stores, pharmacies, banks, and gas stations are some of the only exceptions.

Both countries had seen an uptick in cases in recent days. Spain saw 2,000 new cases on Saturday alone, bringing its total up to more than 5,700. The number of cases in France has recently doubled and the country now has around 4,500 confirmed cases. Italy, the country with the most cases after China, has been operating under these restrictions in a full quarantine since Monday. More than 21,000 people have contracted the virus there, and more than 1,440 people have died from it.

Some non-European countries have taken similar measures. Starting Sunday, all restaurants, cafes, calls, hotels, movie theaters, gyms, and schools in Israel will be closed. Israel, which has less than 200 cases, also banned any foreign visitors from entering the country and gatherings of more than 10 people. Iran, which follows Italy as the third hardest-hit, has closed all schools, universities, sporting events, cafes, restaurants, museums, and movie theaters. And like Italy, it cracked down on travel within the country.

Read more …

Health care for profit doesn’t appear to be the best idea out there. In a nutshell: Systems need redundancy.

UK Doctor: ‘We Don’t Have The Masks, Goggles – Or The Staff’ (G.)

NHS staff are asking the same questions as everyone else about coronavirus. How deadly is it? How do we protect ourselves? Are the government’s tactics right? And how will the health service cope when – and it is when – it leaves large numbers of people seriously ill, many fighting for their lives? These questions are even more pressing for us because within two weeks we will be part of the frontline against a threat that we’ve never seen the like of before. I’m worried that our hospital’s beds are already 98% full. We are full of “social patients” – people medically fit to go but who can’t be discharged because there isn’t a place in a care home for them, or the care package to allow them to go home hasn’t been sorted.

So where are all the people needing life-or-death care from Covid-19 going to go? We’re barely two weeks from being in the same situation as Italy, with huge numbers of people needing to be in hospital. Yet we don’t have enough protective equipment like masks and goggles. And the NHS is under-staffed. We have to haggle with management about a minuscule pay rise for doctors willing to work extra shifts and expose themselves to danger. We don’t have enough isolation rooms or ventilators, which will be vital. Intensive care units will be the NHS’s most precious resource, but ours are close to full most of the time. We’re told of plans to increase ICU capacity. Yet you need a specially trained nurse for each ICU bed. Where will the extra staff come from?

Too few beds, staff and equipment; I’m worried that the NHS is completely ill-equipped to handle Covid-19. When Boris Johnson talks about our wonderful NHS and how well-prepared it is, that’s bullshit. He either doesn’t have a clue or is trying to falsely reassure people. The NHS has been hit hard before, by underfunding, terrorist attacks and tough winters. But usually crises are stretched over a period of time. With coronavirus it will all come at once.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1238924372867461123

Read more …

Just as Xi starts boasting about the approach, these guys try to spoil the party. Do a study like this for Italy too. And the US.

China Could Have Cut 95% Of Cases If It Acted On Whistleblower Warning (HKFP)

China could have prevented 95 per cent of coronavirus infections if its measures to contain the outbreak had begun three weeks earlier, research from the University of Southampton suggests. However, China only took vigorous action in late January – weeks after police silenced a doctor for trying to raise the alarm. First detected in Hubei, more than 146,000 people globally have now been infected with Covid-19, whilst over 5,500 have died from the SARS-like disease. The study published this week by population mapping group WorldPop measured the effectiveness of nonpharmaceutical interventions. The researchers examined how China isolated ill persons, quarantined exposed individuals, conducted contract tracing, restricted travel, closed schools and workplaces, and cancelled mass gatherings.

The analysis – which has yet to be peer-reviewed – found that early case detection and contact reduction were effective in controlling the virus and combined measures can reduce transmission. They can also delay the timing and reduce the size of the epidemic’s peak, and thus buy time for healthcare preparations and drugs research. The simulations drew on human movement and illness data to model how combined interventions might affect the spread of Covid-19. Coronavirus cases could have been reduced by 66 per cent if the measures were taken a week earlier, the study suggested, or by 86 per cent if action began two weeks earlier. If action was taken three weeks later, then the situation could have worsened 18-fold.

Most efforts to tackle the outbreak took place in late January, weeks after Wuhan ophthalmologist Dr Li Wenliang tried to warn about the mystery disease on December 30. He was among eight people who were punished by police on January 1 for spreading “rumours” about the virus. The Public Security Bureau made Li sign a letter stating that he had made “false comments” and had “severely disturbed the social order.” He died last month of the disease, aged 34, prompting widespread outrage in China.

Read more …

Reinfection, false negative?

Japanese Man Tests Positive For Coronavirus, Again (NHK)

Officials in western Japan’s Mie Prefecture say a man who was a passenger on a cruise ship that was hit by the coronavirus has again tested positive after recovering from infection. The man, who is in his 70s, first tested positive for the virus on February 14 while he was onboard the Diamond Princess, which was under quarantine off Yokohama. He left a medical facility in Tokyo on March 2 after he was confirmed negative. He returned to his home in Mie by public transportation. But he started to feel sick and developed a fever of 39 degrees Celsius on Thursday. He went to hospital on Friday, and on Saturday was confirmed to be infected again. He is now receiving treatment at a hospital in the prefecture. Prefectural officials plan to trace his recent activities and carry out checks of people who have had close contact with him.

Read more …

Something for our medical commentariat.

Anti-Inflammatories May Aggravate Covid-19, France Advises (G.)

French authorities have warned that widely used over-the-counter anti-inflammatory drugs may worsen the coronavirus. The country’s health minister, Olivier Véran, who is a qualified doctor and neurologist, tweeted on Saturday: “The taking of anti-inflammatories [ibuprofen, cortisone … ] could be a factor in aggravating the infection. In case of fever, take paracetamol. If you are already taking anti-inflammatory drugs, ask your doctor’s advice.” Health officials point out that anti-inflammatory drugs are known to be a risk for those with infectious illnesses because they tend to diminish the response of the body’s immune system.


The health ministry added that patients should choose paracetamol because “it will reduce the fever without counterattacking the inflammation”. French patients have been forced to consult pharmacies since mid-January if they want to buy popular painkillers, including ibuprofen, paracetamol and aspirin, to be reminded of the risks. Jean-Louis Montastruc, the head of pharmacology at Toulouse hospital, told RTL radio: “Anti-inflammatory drugs increase the risk of complications when there is a fever or infection.”

Read more …

We really need their greedy fingers in that too.

Google Says It Is Developing A Nationwide Coronavirus Website (R.)

Alphabet’s Google said on Saturday that it was working with the U.S. government to develop a nationwide website that would help Americans with questions about coronavirus symptoms, risk factors and testing. “We are fully aligned and continue to work with the U.S. government to contain the spread of COVID-19, inform citizens, and protect the health of our communities,” Google said in a statement on Twitter. President Donald Trump had thanked Google on Friday for developing a website that he said would help people determine whether they needed a coronavirus test, saying that 1,700 engineers were working on it.


That prompted the search and advertising giant to respond that, in fact, a life sciences division, Verily, was in the early stages of developing a tool to help triage Americans who may need testing for the coronavirus and that it would be tested in the Bay Area and expanded over time. Alphabet’s shares closed up more than 9% after the Friday announcement by the president. Pressure has been rising on U.S. officials to increase and improve testing for the fast-spreading virus, which has reached almost every U.S. state, closed schools and forced the cancellation of thousands of sporting events, conferences and concerts amid efforts to stop its spread by keeping Americans out of big crowds.

Read more …

But bloated corpses contain toxic and smelly gases.

Fed May Announce Commercial Paper Facilities Sunday – BofA (R.)

The Federal Reserve may announce measures on Sunday night aimed at bolstering liquidity in the commercial paper market, used by companies for short-term loans, analysts at Bank of America wrote. The bank’s analysts said they believe the Fed will announce a Commercial Paper Funding Facility, an operation previously used in 2008 in which the Fed buys commercial paper from issuers directly, and a Commercial Paper Dealer Purchase Facility in which the Fed would buy commercial paper from dealers directly. The measures, if taken, would be aimed at buffering the market ahead of potentially large outflows from money market funds in coming days, analysts at the bank wrote.


“We believe it imperative the Fed roll out these facilities on Sunday night given the looming expected prime (money market fund) outflows and necessity of their ability to sell (commercial paper) in order to raise cash,” the report said. “If the Fed waits too long the (money market fund) outflow pressure could mount and the risk of a large scale (money market fund) run could increase.” Liquidity – or the ability for buyers and sellers to easily transact – has dried up in the commercial paper market in recent weeks as the coronavirus has roiled credit markets and hit the price of commercial paper. Expectations of a rush of new issuance has also driven prices lower.

Read more …

“..the changes will result in the airline parking nearly its entire widebody fleet..”

American Airlines To Cut Nearly All Long-Haul International Flights (R.)

American Airlines on Saturday said it will implement a phased suspension of nearly all long-haul international flights starting March 16, amid reduced demand and travel restrictions due to the ongoing coronavirus outbreak. Between March 16 and May 6, American will reduce its international capacity by 75% on a year-over-year basis, it said in a statement, adding the changes will result in the airline parking nearly its entire widebody fleet. The airline also anticipates its domestic capacity in April will be reduced by 20% on a year-over-year basis. Domestic capacity for the month of May will be reduced by 30%, the company added.

Read more …

First you bloat your company beyond proportions, then you demand your recently bloated shape is saved from normalizing.

Save people, not companies.

Virgin Atlantic Boss Seeks £7.5 Billion UK Airline Bailout (R.)

Virgin Atlantic’s chairman Peter Norris will write to British Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Monday saying the country’s airline industry needs emergency government support worth 7.5 billion pounds ($9.20 billion) or risks the loss of tens of thousands of jobs, Sky News reported on Saturday. The letter would ask the British government to provide airlines with a credit facility to help them through a potentially prolonged period of slumping revenue amid the coronavirus pandemic, Sky News said, citing sources.

Read more …

Snowing under in the virus.

‘Euroleaks’: Varoufakis Leaks Recordings Of Secretive Eurogroup Talks (RT)

The former finance minister of Greece, Yanis Varoufakis, has released a cache of audio files, secretly recorded in 2015 during the bailout talks with the Eurogroup – a powerful group of eurozone’s finance chiefs.
The recordings and their transcripts were released by Varoufakis on the website of his ‘pan-European’ DiEM25 party on Saturday. The files –dubbed ‘Euroleaks’– were recorded between February and July 2015, when cash-strapped Athens was entangled in painful talks with its creditors. In 2015, Varoufakis was the chief negotiator for then-ruling Syriza party, dealing with the Eurogroup and those behind it – the so-called ‘troika.’ It comprises the three main lenders of the eurozone nations – the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the IMF.

While the Eurogroup is de-jure an informal group, it is actually a powerful decision-making institute that lacks accountability and transparency – and does not keep any records. The main goal in releasing the recordings is to shed light on its secretive activities, Varoufakis said in a video announcing the Euroleaks. The lenders took a tough, ‘take it or leave it’ stance on Greece, effectively presenting it with an ultimatum. At the same time, they blamed Greek negotiators for stalled talks – and no records were available to prove them wrong.

“You will hear the [then-]president of the Eurogroup [Jeroen Dijsselbloem] and other ministers warn me that if I dare table written proposals within the Eurogroup meetings, that would be the end of the negotiations,” Varoufakis said. “At the very same time they were leaking to the press that I was arriving at Eurogroup meetings without any proposals.” Apart from bringing into the limelight the “intransparent action by an unelected group of politicians who influence all our lives,” the leaks also serve another purpose. The putting in the public domain of the secret recordings is aimed at fighting attempts by the incumbent Greek government to “weaponize fake news,” produced by the Eurogroup back in 2015 to justify new austerity measures for the country, Varoufakis said.

Read more …

 

 

 

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Home Forums Debt Rattle March 15 2020

This topic contains 34 replies, has 15 voices, and was last updated by  Boogaloo 7 months, 2 weeks ago.

Viewing 35 posts - 1 through 35 (of 35 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #55353

    Dorothea Lange One nation indivisible. San Francisco 1942   • New York Will Be The Next Italy (M.) • America Has No Real Public Health System – C
    [See the full post at: Debt Rattle March 15 2020]

    #55354

    V. Arnold
    Participant

    Dorothea Lange One nation indivisible. San Francisco 1942

    A heartbreaking reminder of who we really are; and have always been…
    Monsters…

    #55355

    sumac.carol
    Participant

    It makes perfect sense that there are huge numbers of young people walking around spreading the disease but not feeling particularly sick. As Jon Barron said, if you are not immune compromised (and young people without underlying health issues – and haven’t had cancer treatment which I would add damages the immune system of people of all ages) you will experience very little effect when you get the coronavirus. The main related relevant point is that, as Merkel and others have said, pretty much everyone is going to get this virus, so the working assumption for all of us should be that we will get the virus, not a happy prospect but realistic. Social distancing is key for delaying catching this thing.
    However, knowing that sooner or later we will all get it, we should think about how to minimize its impact, and that would involve strengthening the immune system and treatments to reduce pathogen load on your body so it does not have to work so hard. For the moment, alternative health and herbal medicine areas will have the best information on things you can do yourself.

    #55356

    sumac.carol
    Participant

    I would add: how many people in all age groups are taking pharmaceuticals that compromise their immune system? Many people use anti-inflammatory for all kinds of things from sports injuries to headaches.

    #55357

    Dave Note
    Participant

    From watching the first wave of asian countries and their response to containing SARS CoV2 I can say that only two options are on the table for Europe and North America.

    #1 Lock downs and quarantines, enforced by police and military with guarantied jail time and fines for those who break it.

    # 2 Intensive fast free accurate testing and contact tracing, with transparent ubiquitous cell phone location and neighborhood level alert apps, like South Korea deployed without having to resort to the above lock downs and quarantines, coupled with CLOSING the borders.

    You know borders, those things that define the boundaries of actual countries.

    Like Mexico is contemplating closing their northern border to keep the contaminated Gringos out! hahahaha

    The suicide cult of neoliberal Globalism doesn’t believe in borders. George Soros is their buttboy poster child.

    The suicide cult of ‘just in time’ supply chain, the keystone of the Globalist Death Cult, is not going to be able to provide enough ventilator to the hospitals and many thousands will be dying in the hallways and outside the overwhelmed ER’s.

    Globalism is a pathocratic Death Cult and it’s time has come hither.

    Let all the people of the world join hands and be one big contaminated family, all together now!

    4 Horsemen

    #55358

    Notable additions since my post:
    Iran +1,209 cases, +113 deaths;
    Germany +543 cases;
    US +102 cases, +3 deaths;
    Belgium +197 cases;
    Austria +145 cases;
    Malaysia +190 cases.
    Lots of “new” countries reporting double digit gains.

    #55359

    V. Arnold
    Participant

    Lots of “new” countries reporting double digit gains.

    Thailand will join the ranks by next week…
    …oops, just did; 32 new cases; 114 total now…and counting…

    #55360

    Netherlands: 176 new cases for a 1,135 total count; 8 more deaths for a total of 20. All nations have that same trajectory.

    #55361

    John Day
    Participant

    The article suggesting paracetamol/Tylenol for fever, instead of ibuprofen, aspirin or naproxen, is partly right.
    The part that is wrong is “treating fever”.
    Fever is trying hard to save your life with this virus. The reports from China have been clear. Fever: Good, acetaminophen: bad.

    #55362

    sumac.carol
    Participant

    The suggestion that mass quarantines of everyone (sick or not) is ludicrous – never going to be feasible. Remember the Japanese story for starters? They closed the schools but then some parents of kids worked at the hospital and, because they were at home looking after their kids, they did not show up for work. You can expect the same thing to happen with the military and police you will need to enforce the quarantines – they all have families that they will put before their families.

    #55363

    zerosum
    Participant

    Some Wishes are coming true for some people
    eliminating the Seniors is eliminating the leadership

    NOTE: mortality rate is back up to 7%!

    In France, over half of COVID19 patients in intensive care are under 60. Holland has 40-50 patients in intensive care, over half of whom are under 50.
    —–
    • America Has No Real Public Health System – Coronavirus Has A Clear Run (Reich)

    AND for everyone who bitched about the way China dealt with the virus.
    NOW China can watch and gloat on how the best system on earth is being destroyed by the MMT-virus

    ———–
    • American Airlines To Cut Nearly All Long-Haul International Flights (R.)

    And now
    What will they do with all those surplus planes
    What will they do with all those abandoned cruise ships

    ——
    sumac.carol and John Day
    highlighted some point that I also want to highlight.

    The suggestion that mass quarantines of everyone (sick or not) is ludicrous – never going to be feasible.
    there are huge numbers of young people walking around spreading the disease but not feeling particularly sick.

    Let’s remember where all the young people spent their spring break and watch if it will affect their seniors when they go back to their hometown schools.

    how many people in all age groups are taking pharmaceuticals that compromise their immune system? Many people use anti-inflammatory for all kinds of things from sports injuries to headaches.

    John Day

    I just got information that hydroxychloroquine 200 mg twice per day, is just as effective in treating novel coronavirus, maybe even a hair better. This is available, used long term in some forms of arthritis and autoimmune disease, but would only be used short term for this.
    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924857920300820
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32150618

    Fever is trying hard to save your life with this virus. The reports from China have been clear. Fever: Good, acetaminophen: bad.

    #55364

    When I’m coming down with a cold I take a bath so hot as to raise my temperature to fever level.
    This usually knocks the virus back so far I escape it, or cuts it back to a mere two to four days instead of ten. Fevers are good, unless they get too high.
    Iceland. Hot springs. Does The Virus survive?
    I wonder if the youngsters who are contracting it are asthmatics on corticosteroids? The only demographics on the stricken are age, gender, and nation. It’s pretty clear that Italy’s bug is not the same as Korea’s (or that Italians are not Koreans).
    Raul Ilargi Meijer: You are a treasure. Thank-you. The check is in the mail.

    #55365

    Italy reports +3,590 new cases, and +368 new deaths. In one single day. Yesterday they had +175 new deaths.

    This is carnage.

    #55366

    zerosum
    Participant

    Trudeau is working from home.
    However, most leaders of our structures are old and rich.
    Has the virus reached them as they hide in their isolated fortress from the rifral and the virus?

    #55367

    zerosum
    Participant

    No need to worry

    Coronavirus: Germany to close major land borders


    Sunday 15 March 2020 4:21 pm
    Coronavirus: Germany to close major land borders

    James Warrington

    #55368

    seychelles
    Participant

    The US is set for the worst disaster of all, it has to enforce travel restrictions very rapidly or else, ground domestic flights, close down highways, the works. And get hospitals working for ten times as many patients as they’re designed for. Good luck.

    This is what happens when the social leadership infrastructure becomes packed with entrained sinecures who have forgotten what truth, rationality, and delivering the goods are all about. Spearheading the evolving disaster is the grossly incompetent development of viral test availability, which has given people the sense that covid-19 is overblown and that social distancing is unnecessary.

    #55369

    zerosum
    Participant

    Right on seychelles
    Canada does’t need to close the borders.
    Check the border crossing cameras.
    People are not lined up. There is no wait time like before.
    Entertainment venues are closing,ie. Whisler ski hill, due to lack of visitors, not because of the flue.
    Via rail cancelled it Toronto – Vancouver again, lack of travellers.
    Planes routes being cancelled due to lack of demand.
    Canadian understand. Canadians are changing their way of life.
    Canadians will not run out of toilet paper. (we still have a lot of water to clean wipes.)

    #55371

    hostebbe
    Participant

    Read the interview with a Russian virologist on the Saker’s website. Ignore the stuff about the virus taking a summer holiday but take the excellent advice on protecting yourself toward the end of the interview.

    #55372

    zerosum
    Participant

    Will summer heat stop the coronavirus

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/coronavirus-gulf-states-warm-mosque-prayers-200315160444406.html
    NEWS/GCC
    Coronavirus in Gulf states: No warm greetings, no mosque prayers
    Life turns upside down in Gulf region as more than 870 COVID-19 cases are recorded across six GCC nations.

    3 hours ago

    #55373

    WES
    Participant

    Well up here in the land of igloos, coronavirus cases exploded from 200 to 300 overnight.

    Ontario has clearly lost the containment battle and is no longer testing people with the coronavirus.

    Folks in Ontario finally figured this out and panicked, cleaning out the grocery store shelves!

    Snow is now being hoarded!

    #55374

    WES
    Participant

    Zerosum:. You spoke too soon!

    Well, Ontario has run-out of toilet paper!

    However, I must confess to accidentally starting the run on toilet paper!

    Last fall, I bought, on sale, over twenty 24 roll packages of toilet paper, enough to fill up my car!

    Little did I know at that time, that my butterfly wings would end up creating a massive run on toilet paper!

    My Bad!

    #55375

    WES
    Participant

    Question for John Day:

    My wife read a comment from a Japanese doctor. How true this is I don’t know, but from an engineering point of view it makes some sense.

    The Japanese doctor said if you catch the coronavirus, there is a simple test you can do at home concerning your ability to breath.

    Hold your breath for 10 seconds.

    If you can hold your breath for 10 seconds without any difficulty, then the coronavirus has not yet entered your lungs in any serious way.

    If you can not hold your breath for 10 seconds without difficulty, then you should immediately seek medical help!

    I would have to think this doesn’t apply to people, like my wife with asma (uses puffer), who have pre-existing lung problems. I doubt she could hold breath for 10 seconds.

    John, what are your thoughts on this?

    #55376

    zerosum
    Participant

    FREE FED MONEY FOR MY FRIENDS
    Now, Do you believe me, its modern monetary theory virus.

    #55377

    sinnycool
    Participant

    China has just destroyed America.

    Are we looking at the turning point of world history?

    This chart shows the country of origin of all tested COVID cases in Australia.

    From here: https://www.covid19data.com.au

    Australian COVID stats

    We have many many more Chinese visitors, immigrants and tourists than we do from the US; Chinese students at our universities are the backbone of our university income making the infection differential even more disturbing.

    If iPhones were ever a barometer of anything they are now “exclusively produced in China for Chinese” with all the Chinese Apple stores open and all America’s shut. What an irony

    Attachments:
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    #55379

    boilingfrog
    Participant

    “Fed Panics: Powell Cuts Rates To Zero, Announces $700BN QE5, Unveils Enhanced Global Swap Lines”

    As a contractor/plumber, if I have “solved the problem” twice, yet still have a problem, I realize I’ve misdiagnosed. If I’m lucky my customer gives me a chance to re-examine the problem

    It must be different in finance, but these guys are educated, I’m sure #6 will be the charm.

    #55380

    zerosum
    Participant

    Just admit it …. You’re glad that you were not one of those people trying to get your opinion made into a decision.
    You’re opinion was considered as foolish.

    #55381

    hostebbe
    Participant

    Remember a few years back when there was a lot of buzz on the net about sauerkraut eaters being less affected by whatever virus it was that was then making the rounds. How about all the kimchi eaters in Korea!!!!

    #55382

    VietnamVet
    Participant

    Ending contact tracing, lack of universal lab tests, and no forced quarantine of the infected (especially the asymptomatic) assure that Italy’s plague of death will engulf NYC, LA and Seattle in the coming weeks; crashing the healthcare system. A million or more Americans will die. As of yesterday, West Virginia was the last State with no confirmed cases of Novel Coronavirus. If Mountaineers isolate themselves and tell sick city slickers to keep driving out of state, they may avoid the coming chaos. Except, the 43 Walmart retail units in state are dependent on in time logistics just like the rest of the nation. The real question is how fast can Walmart restock? Can it?

    With the sacking of scientists, the ideologues running the US Federal Government are incapable of projecting the consequences of the pandemic and the economic depression four months from now and doing what is needed now to protect its citizens. The Defense Department has not opened its mobile hospitals in hot spots. Communities are not hiring thousands of social aides to monitor, feed and assist the homebound in need. No quarantine faculties are opening for the homeless. There are thousands of things that are needed but won’t be done because it doesn’t make money for connected billionaires.

    #55383

    zerosum
    Participant

    “… how fast can Walmart restock? Can it?”
    My answer: No
    First Trump made a tariff war.
    Then China stop production due to the virus
    Then the USA stopped the economy. Stopped the purchasing. Then the USA did MMT for the rich and did not help the 70% that are consumers.
    Death will roam the streets of USA and eliminate and change the attitudes of the consumers.
    The rich will hire lawyers and accountants to be “collectors” to seize every assets that are remaining.

    #55384

    sumac.carol
    Participant

    Yes raw unpasteurized sauerkraut and kimchi are great for your intestinal flora which represent about 70 percent of your body’s immune system capacity. Excellent idea to eat some to boost your immune system.

    #55385

    WES
    Participant

    Well what do you know!

    No money for thee or me! Only money for the rich!

    Central bankers must be real desperate! They are trying to crash the price of real money, gold, with billions in fake paper money!

    So far they seem to be winning! Gold is down! They will save the world!

    I can sleep at ease tonight!

    #55386

    WES
    Participant

    Carol:. Does being married to a wife who is 50% Kraut count?

    Or does the other 25% Scottish and Wellish cancel out the Kraut?

    #55387

    Figmund Sreud
    Participant

    Conversation with a doctor, on Salt Spring Island, BC, Canada:
    All about COVID-19 with Physician and Writer Kevin Patterson
    https://thetyee.ca/News/2020/03/15/Kevin-Patterson-COVID/

    Note: bit dated, recorded last Friday evening.

    #55388

    sumac.carol
    Participant

    WES: That should help, maybeeee? 😊

    #55389

    Boogaloo
    Participant

    A couple weeks ago someone raised doubts about the effectiveness of masks. I posted a reply recalling what I learned in university from a virology professor I worked under — that dosage is important in determining whether you become infected and how bad your case becomes. Chris Martenson makes the same point today in making the case for why everyone should be wearing masks.

    I think masks make a huge difference. China reversed the trend not only by the lockdown, but also by requiring that everyone wear a mask in public. In Korea 90% of people wear masks in public these days, though this is not required. Testing a contact tracing have made a big difference here, but I am sure the masks are also a big part of it. Only 74 new cases today, and only 6 in Seoul. Although I think Japan is under-reporting because it is not testing enough, the Japanese were among the first to pull out the masks, and I am certain that has helped slow the spread.

    I understand why the US Surgeon General lied to the public to say that masks are not effective — it is because of the shortage. But even if everyone starts wearing a home-made mask that would be a major improvement. I see the lines at the US airports, and that is a major scandal. But just as scandalous is that fact that almost nobody is wearing a mask.

    And I would add that in Korea there was a quick spread among the members of the Shincheonji Church because they were opposed to wearing masks because they considered it disrespectful . . .

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