Forum Replies Created
I’ve been reading your work (with Stoneleigh, Lord I hope she’s safe) since The Oil Drum. And I’m still reading your work. I have always tried to apply a sort of “scientific method” to my readings… if it’s useful and predictions turn out to be (nearly) on target, I stick. Writers who don’t pass muster are abandoned.
Your writing gives good, pragmatic steps and expands my mind, and thus my ability to react more calmly and thoughtfully. This latest stretching of my mind made me think of Greer from 2006 (and reprinted in “Crash Now And Avoid The Rush, 2015):
“Knowing many stories is wisdom,
Knowing no stories is ignorance,
Knowing only one story is death”
My ailing parents know one story, the virus was a partisan attack. They are now stuck in Florida and we hope for the best.
Thank you, and all the commentariot, for giving us
“many stories”, many ways to look at the world.
Yes, I concur, Raul, please be kind to yourself! The work you do each day is enormous without a world-wide virus raging. Do take care.
@ John Day – my initial reaction is disbelief, too conspiratorial for my tastes… And then I turn on the radio and hear the SecState blustering on-and-on and I think: “The lady doth protest too much, me thinks”.
Not that it will change anything, but I’ll definitely be sitting down this evening and giving your “suggestion” a hard, careful re-reading. Thanks for expending the energy. Stay safe
Thanks Raul, first belly laugh of the day! (Film at 11:00!)
The big yellow school buses in Appalachia seem to be a “constant” for kids. At the schools nurses are doing their best to check for symptoms of volunteers (yes, I understand there are asymptomatic folks).
Food is carefully packed, and then loaded on the buses. Regular routes run are run all over the valley, and a teacher or counselor hands out meals to hungry kids standing in the gravel. One bit of regularity in an irregular time.
I can’t help but think of Mnuchin and Kudlow and all the others looking for all those magic threads laying about, scraps and leftovers from the emperor’s tailors back in 2008… Thankfully they spun extra thread 12 years ago…
Why is the Red Cross emailing me for financial contributions when a guy just up the street from HQ has a checking account with a $6T balance and a directive to spend it?
Illargi’a advice, taken to heart: hold no debt; consume less; relocalize; increase community self-sufficiency; reduce dependence on centralized life-support systems.
After typing the above question I realized why this was important: simply hearing different possibilities of what the future might hold allows me to be better prepared mentally for whatever happens; it won’t be as big a surprise.
So, just had a beer with neighbors, they on porch and me in driveway. A “normal” moment I have missed.
I put forward this question to them: “Do you think everything will go back to normal, almost just like before?” One said “Yes, people have a short memory. Soon this will be past us, the Dow will be right back up, our 401k’s will be right back up, corporations will be whole and it’ll be a memory, a blip. Universities with full classrooms back in business.”
But my cognitive (emotional?) bias says something different, that history shows us that at some point the authorities are NOT able to stitch it back together in a reasonable resemblance of the previous assemblage. Maybe it won’t be this time, but… But I’m certainly no fortune-teller.
It seems that the Fed will print their money, that corporations will be made “whole”, but, …
In my own experience I have had people occasionally play mind games with me, getting me to believe stuff that is further and further “out there” until one day a line is crossed and not only do I suddenly not believe the latest, but everything said prior is tossed out.
So I guess I put that question out here, certainly not that anyone knows for sure, but this was quite a bit on the “American way of life”. Going back to “normal”?
(With tongue firmly in cheek?) Governments at every level no longer need our pittance in taxes, they have the Fed to buy up all the Muni bonds they want to “auction”. Good on them!
Wow, not even a teaspoon of medicine.
The behavior of financiers and corporate executives have proven they can’t be trusted.
President Trump, with respect to the huge corporate tax breaks said, “We thought they would do the right thing (productively invest) and they didn’t (buybacks instead)”
So, the rush to give them trillions seems, well, idiotic. So, of course, that’s what we’ll certainly do.
And yes, China WILL use their leverage in this situation, it’s called “The Art Of The Deal”. People act surprised, but TAOTD is not a “win-win” approach.
I just spoke with a friend at the community health center and she said that for all intents and purposes, no PPE for them. Tomorrow they are going to start making masks out of paper towels and rubber bands. I was shocked and will drop my construction masks with her in the morning.
She had spoken to a mutual ER doc acquaintance who reportedly said, “The New River Valley (Virginia) will probably be on curfew by the end of the week”. I have no idea what exactly the doc meant by curfew, but know she’s got good contacts with police and emergency management-type folks.
Dr. Rich, I don’t have a good understanding of the “null hypothesis”, but will read more. Very much appreciated the link to Camus, have shared.
I printed out a list of the 15 Most Common Logical Fallacies about two months ago, and con artists may simply know them by intuition…. would be the basis of an interesting drinking game as one watches the news: “Doh! ANOTHER one… everybody drink!”
Regarding the finding a more sane place between “corporations bad!” and full-on “socialism”, Stockman had some thoughts (that won’t happen, of course). Let them go bankrupt, let the gamblers take it in the chin, and sell assets in bankruptcy. New management (ESOP’s?) opens as quickly as possible after trash gets taken to the curb.
Futures already limited down. Buckle up.
Along the lines of John Day’s song, there’s also The Wrong Child by REM (Green album).
“I’ve watched the children come and go
A late, long march into spring
I sit and watch those children
Jump in the tall grass
Leap the sprinkler
Walk in the ground
Bicycle clothespin spokes
The sound, the smell of swingset hands
I will try to sing a happy song
I’ll try and make a happy game to play
“Come play with me” I whispered to my newfound friend
Tell me what it’s like to go outside
I’ve never been
Tell me what it’s like to just go outside
I’ve never been
And I never will
I’m not supposed to be like this
I’m not supposed to be like this, but it’s okay
Hey, hey, hey, those kids are looking at me
I told my friend myself, those kids are looking at me
They’re laughing and they’re running over here
They’re laughing and they’re running over here
What do I do, what should I do?
What do I say?
What can I say?
I said I’m not supposed to be like this
Let’s try to find a happy game to play
Let’s try to find a happy game to play
I’m not supposed to be like this
But it’s okay, okay”
“For your daily group discussion,. WHich you’re not allowed to have anymore”
Well. The discussion was nice while it lasted.
UpstateNYer – great input, thank you. I’m isolated in the New River Valley of the South Central Appalachians. Your take is much appreciated.
Highlight of my day (to go CHS and be positive for a moment): damned chickens showed me their secret escape route as I stood and watched! That border has been walled up!
Bosco, regarding your pentameters and such, I read this recently: “Truth is like poetry, and most people f****g hate poetry”.
We’re clearly in the early innings, but that US-UK disparity is enormous, especially given the testing… any thoughts you’d care to share, or (wisely) “wait and see”?
All I can guess is the different strains that John Day (and others) have spoken of here from day one is at play.
Anticlimactic – agree. No more of this “we have to pay to keep the talent!” garbage talk. We see that in higher ed where profs talk of their “value in the free market” when negotiating salaries. Funny, they all seem happy to take the tenure.
In my mind, I’m trying to come up with a middle-of-the-road approach on the extremes of “barely regulated” business and “corporations are the enemy”. I’m struggling.
All I can come up with is that there must be “sunshine” as an antiseptic, and a constant holding people accountable. Yes, I know systems all start out with the best of intentions, only to be chipped-down over time. It’s an inherent weakness in man, hence man’s systems.
So, the Federal Reserve was able to come up with (for sake of discussion) $4.5T after 2008 crisis… and now they’re discussing another $1.5T in “stimulus”…
Why the arbitrary numbers? “Escape velocity” is clearly not a topic…
Bosco, your writing sometimes has a clarity that closes in on brilliance…love your self-description above…
And now we wait…
Larry Kellner, Chair of the Board at Boeing (and president of a PE group). Nice! Expecting lots of changes – not!
“Kellner currently serves as President of Emerald Creek Group, LLC – a California-based private equity firm primarily focused on real estate and chairman of The Boeing Company.”
The OR docs decided it was a “tough political environment” and gave opted NOT to go on record with what they feel are extremely poor administrative decisions in the face of things…
But I don’t know their stresses, who am I to judge, but frustrating. Especially when one types: “At least my golf course is open”.
Reporter’s simple reply: “Welcome to my world. Everyone bitches, few step up”.
Got an email from a surgeon friend this morning telling me that “at least 20% of procedures this week” [at Carilion – Roanoke] ” elective and could have waited months”. They are questioning the CEO’s decisions on this…
The he/she asks: “Do you know any reporters?”
As a matter of fact, I do know some reporters…
I cut and pasted earlier talk about the anti-malarials from these comments. Passed it along to a friend in a WV pharmacy several days ago and she just told me the docs have been investigating and are bringing it in…
Hat tip John Day…?
Hey Docs, thanks for all your work (on all fronts). I’m just trying to stay sane and connect the dots for positioning. Like Oxymoron, I luckily crashed my own life a decade ago – as John Michael Greer wrote:
“Crash now and avoid the rush”
When I read Dr Rich’s piece yesterday I knew something was wrong, the “administrative nurses” had the wrong tone for the situation, but I couldn’t tease it out.
The bigwigs so vocal about the empty concept of “free market” have pivoted after destroying any redundancy and resiliency, and are going for full-on extortion: : “Your money or your life (job)!”
I like an interesting life, but, geeeezzz…
How many days out till it REALLY hits? 5? 7?
Hey doc, thank you very much for that explanation, greatly appreciated! Like I said, I can be “thick” in understanding typed things where I can’t hear tone or see facial, and have zero understanding of the normal protocols and such, so thanks for taking the time and clearing me up on this…
I’m in the Appalachian mountains of SW Virginia, a mash-up of big-dollar non-profits (healthcare and higher education) slammed right up against a hard-scrabble mountain folk who have hard lives and low expectations.
One concern I’ve heard from the higher ed folks is that there simply isn’t the bandwidth available for every class to suddenly “go on-line”. Amongst them I also see a strange cognitive dissonance, as if simply going “on-line” is fine, and their tenured, well-paid, well-benefitted lives will just roll along after this “bump”. Thus far I haven’t seen any sign of acknowledgement that political and financial factors may become much bigger factors in their lives, but I watch for it.
An elementary special-ed teacher I spoke with last evening said there is a very wide variance in internet accessibility and speeds amongst her students, from those who live near town near the universities versus those in the single-wides farther out. But her bigger concern was simply FEEDING these kids.
I just bought more soup and flour and bread and am enroute to drop at the homes of elderly folks in my community, most with compromised systems.
Regarding your question on fatigue, one homebound friend texted, “I’m losing my F***G mind!” But we’ll get her settled down…
Probably I’m thick but I sort of missed your point, but am VERY curious to understand your intent… What I got was that you HAD complied in putting together the priority list… Was there an inferred tone I missed in their message back to you? Did you step out of proper channels?
Stay safe, keep commenting when able, please. I’m in SW Virginia, lots of “once proud” towns and once good, crumbling infrastructure here, too.
Anybody remember The Vapors circa. 1980, the year Reagan entered stage right? Quite the coincidence…
“I’m turning Japanese, I think I’m turning Japanese, I really think so
Turning Japanese, I think I’m turning Japanese, I really think so
I’m turning Japanese, I think I’m turning Japanese, I really think so
Turning Japanese, I think I’m turning Japanese, I really think so…”
“Fed Panics: Powell Cuts Rates To Zero, Announces $700BN QE5, Unveils Enhanced Global Swap Lines”
As a contractor/plumber, if I have “solved the problem” twice, yet still have a problem, I realize I’ve misdiagnosed. If I’m lucky my customer gives me a chance to re-examine the problem
It must be different in finance, but these guys are educated, I’m sure #6 will be the charm.
As someone recently said, “There is no room for contingency planning and preparation in for-profit healthcare”.
Nancy Agee makes $1.9M running Carilion Healthcare, a not-for-profit, in little ol’ Roanoke, Virginia.
You either build guardrails (contingency, with no “investor return”), or you put a high-profit ambulance in the valley (with a high, high profit ‘copter idling on the roof for the wealthy).
Your post is a highlight in these times. Wish we could get you written into some bill so you could feed at the “Primary Dealers Window” of the Fed. I’d argue your solitary contribution is far greater than any hedge fund (but that doesn’t help keep the lights on…)
Just watched Tulsi’s tweet (above) and am trying to learn how to not engage or get angry at morons who are fine with $1.5T for banks, but a grand for a single mom brings forth cries of “Work, not welfare!”.
The depth of our stupidity and blindness makes me rage, and makes me cry.
Recently read that ol’ Jerry Fakewell said, We’re not gonna be like other schools! We’re gonna stay open at Liberty!” Hope he’s kept his law license current, because he’ll need it!!
Spot the difference below:
TRUMP: If you want to get tested for Coronavirus, you can get tested for Coronavirus.
OBAMA: If you want to keep your doctor, you can keep your doctor.
The image that oftentimes forms in my mind when I start reading about these big bailouts, whatever, is that of a pothole.
There is no plan to actually fix or make changes to the road, just keep pouring money into the hole so that cars can drive over it – it’s continually sinking and continually being “topped off”, so one doesn’t realize how deep it is, nor how much has flowed down it.
When you look at the history of reserve currencies, it’s a pretty consistent graph. Human greed destroys the reserve currency status in 75 to 100 years. Right on schedule. And then the pitchforks and torches come out, things “bounce”, and we move along.
Not as complex as the utterings that come out of a central bankers mouth, but his back is against the wall, not mine.
The “freelance” laborers in my circle laugh at the idea of “staying home”
Laugh and say, “Yeah, so the banks we bail out can take everything I have when I miss a payment?
I don’t think so…
They took the land in the dustbowl days and sold it off, that ain’t happening this time…”
We’ll see… Interesting times. Some of us are “in this together”.
America: we never met a problem that could not be solved with a checkbook (whether there’s money in the account or not).
I read that Harvard has asked students not to return after spring break, true?
My professor friends are talking of teaching “on-line” so this won’t be a big inconvenience. To them. From what I see, these same academics are seeing the world in a very simplistic way: everything just moves along, log on and continue. It seems to me that economic and/or political factors will quickly rise (already have?) in importance. I have laborer friends who have clients telling them: “Sorry. Money market account is down, no work for you”.
One thing that’s crossed my mind is ALL the entities that have political influence, approaching the powers-that-be in prostration, asking to be (financially) “saved”, and arguing why they are more important than the other. What kinds of numbers could we be talking about? Mind-numbing…
Wow, Raul, you work your tail off! And am not just noticing that suddenly, (will hit patreon right away) thank you.
In a small town hosting a big University and everyone’s talking about: “What happens when the students come back from spring break (after mainly going home to DC, NJ, Maryland..)?
Yeah, what happens?
Was thinking about the Art of the Deal… It seems the President’s methods of jaw-boning and self-promoting, running the other down, bullying, and bribing are ineffective against this type of adversary.
Sort of reminds me of a near altercation a neighbor recently had with two aggressive “bullying” guys. So neighbor, he picked up a shovel, to even things out. One of the aggressive bullies said, “I ain’t afraid of no shovel!” to which neighbor replied, “Hey dipshit, this shovel doesn’t care if you’re scared or not when it hits you upside the head!”
I think the virus (whatever it’s name today) is the same. It clearly won’t be talked-to-death, bullied or bribed.
Pompeo blasted China for its lack of transparency.
“That’s not the way infectious disease doctors tell me it should work. It’s not the way America works with transparency and openness and the sharing of the information that needs to take place.”
(Hey Mr. Pompeo, we’ve got Julian Assange on the other line…please, please tell us again how transparency and openness works here in America. He’s dying to know)
One thing that just doesn’t make sense to me is, from what I can tell, the lack of cases on university campuses. It seems a bunch of Chinese students flew home to China at mid-semester, and then returned to university.
I would imagine that administrators are sweating bullets. They dodged the “Me Too” bullet, and sure didn’t see this one coming. I stopped by an Asian Supermarket last evening that caters to a very large university. It was packed, and I didn’t see a single concern or mask.
Anyone able to straighten me out on this?
More importantly, let’s talk about the benefits of demonic possession!!
Sorry illargi, for some reason that really got me smiling…maybe ‘cuz I’m just down the road from Mr. Falwell and his University of Hypocrisy (HOW much Federal money flows into your pockets sir?!?)
Okay, back to Covid19…
I’m actually a little surprised that we haven’t seen more viral hotspots at the big universities…I’ve heard there are cases in Dane County, WI (Madison), but that’s it.
A recent newspaper article regarding the universities referred to a “looming cliff” in enrollment due to demographics. C-19 could potentially accelerate that? Those institutions are sure great at scaling up, but not at scaling down!
While out with friends enjoying some music last evening, someone said, “We shouldn’t be worried about Coronavirus because the flu kills many, many more!”
I didn’t have a good response, so I didn’t reply. In hindsight – and I’m asking here – is “guess” that the 2019nCoV has both a higher mortality rate and possibly affects the body differently. ? Thoughts??
(But if we were to name it the Blue Sky & Clean Water Virus and create a derivative the financial markets could trade, all would be good)
With regard to “children playing”. Living in Racine, WI years ago I remember a nearby church playground, wonderful “jungle gyms” and manicured lawns. Fenced. And a sign prominently posted saying, “In honor of the Lord’s day, please refrain from using this playground on Sundays”.
A twisted, sick mentality in my opinion. Wish I had a picture of that sign…
It’s all like “reality” television, a format Mr. Trump seems to love, but only when he’s the only writer, or has final edit powers. We await his Midwest peace proposal where, again, he seems to think he has final editing power (over his ghost writers).
Sadly, he’s clearly incapable of learning the fact that others have agency, no matter how limited.
On the issue of rising interest rates, I couldn’t help but make a comparison between the apparent “prairie fire” growth of coronavirus and a coming worldwide debt contagion.
Add locusts and it just gets really depressing (if it’s possible to get more depressing).
I wear ear protection with a radio as I labor, and normally listen to classical music. But I have listened to 95% of the presentation thus far, and will again when I get back from the feed mill this morning.
In my mind Shiff & Co. have done an admirable job in making a case against the president and his abuse of power. Prior to listening I thought the charges were all made up and partisan.
But I voted against Trump because of his character, and I voted against Hillary because of her neo-conservative foreign policy (thinking she’d quickly lead us to war against Russia).
Sadly, I think we are now witnessing “prosecutorial over-reach” as Congressman Shiff reaches to connect all this to a “bad, bad” Putin. Conveniently left out are our walking away from treaties, including the promise not to expand NATO.
I went into this believing that neither side wore the proverbial “white hat”, and Congressman Shiff proved me correct. The whole “Russia-gate” is an unsettled affair and it should have been left alone in this case, IMHO.
A strategy I would have preferred would have been an open discussion of the hyper-partisanship, a search to mend that at the highest level. This same “use of presidential power” would be used to attack members of the president’s own party who “stepped out of line”, and the clearer minds of the world’s greatest deliberative body needed to stitch this country back together through compromise. Real leadership.
Instead, Shiff & Company opened up a huge, huge ‘nother, unsettled, partisan can of worms. It’s like listening to a person discuss a theory, and you slowly find yourself agreeing…and then next thing you know this seemingly rational person is talking about the “lizard people at the earth’s core in power” and NOW you need to dismiss their entire previous argument.
So close, representative Shiff, so close…