boilingfrog
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So, the Federal Reserve was able to come up with (for sake of discussion) $4.5T after 2008 crisis… and now they’re discussing another $1.5T in “stimulus”…
Why the arbitrary numbers? “Escape velocity” is clearly not a topic…Bosco, your writing sometimes has a clarity that closes in on brilliance…love your self-description above…
And now we wait…
Larry Kellner, Chair of the Board at Boeing (and president of a PE group). Nice! Expecting lots of changes – not!
“Kellner currently serves as President of Emerald Creek Group, LLC – a California-based private equity firm primarily focused on real estate and chairman of The Boeing Company.”
The OR docs decided it was a “tough political environment” and gave opted NOT to go on record with what they feel are extremely poor administrative decisions in the face of things…
But I don’t know their stresses, who am I to judge, but frustrating. Especially when one types: “At least my golf course is open”.
Reporter’s simple reply: “Welcome to my world. Everyone bitches, few step up”.
Got an email from a surgeon friend this morning telling me that “at least 20% of procedures this week” [at Carilion – Roanoke] ” elective and could have waited months”. They are questioning the CEO’s decisions on this…
The he/she asks: “Do you know any reporters?”
As a matter of fact, I do know some reporters…
Raul,
I cut and pasted earlier talk about the anti-malarials from these comments. Passed it along to a friend in a WV pharmacy several days ago and she just told me the docs have been investigating and are bringing it in…
Hat tip John Day…?Hey Docs, thanks for all your work (on all fronts). I’m just trying to stay sane and connect the dots for positioning. Like Oxymoron, I luckily crashed my own life a decade ago – as John Michael Greer wrote:
“Crash now and avoid the rush”
When I read Dr Rich’s piece yesterday I knew something was wrong, the “administrative nurses” had the wrong tone for the situation, but I couldn’t tease it out.
The bigwigs so vocal about the empty concept of “free market” have pivoted after destroying any redundancy and resiliency, and are going for full-on extortion: : “Your money or your life (job)!”
I like an interesting life, but, geeeezzz…
How many days out till it REALLY hits? 5? 7?
Hey doc, thank you very much for that explanation, greatly appreciated! Like I said, I can be “thick” in understanding typed things where I can’t hear tone or see facial, and have zero understanding of the normal protocols and such, so thanks for taking the time and clearing me up on this…
Illargi,
I’m in the Appalachian mountains of SW Virginia, a mash-up of big-dollar non-profits (healthcare and higher education) slammed right up against a hard-scrabble mountain folk who have hard lives and low expectations.
One concern I’ve heard from the higher ed folks is that there simply isn’t the bandwidth available for every class to suddenly “go on-line”. Amongst them I also see a strange cognitive dissonance, as if simply going “on-line” is fine, and their tenured, well-paid, well-benefitted lives will just roll along after this “bump”. Thus far I haven’t seen any sign of acknowledgement that political and financial factors may become much bigger factors in their lives, but I watch for it.
An elementary special-ed teacher I spoke with last evening said there is a very wide variance in internet accessibility and speeds amongst her students, from those who live near town near the universities versus those in the single-wides farther out. But her bigger concern was simply FEEDING these kids.
I just bought more soup and flour and bread and am enroute to drop at the homes of elderly folks in my community, most with compromised systems.
Regarding your question on fatigue, one homebound friend texted, “I’m losing my F***G mind!” But we’ll get her settled down…
Dr Rich,
Probably I’m thick but I sort of missed your point, but am VERY curious to understand your intent… What I got was that you HAD complied in putting together the priority list… Was there an inferred tone I missed in their message back to you? Did you step out of proper channels?Stay safe, keep commenting when able, please. I’m in SW Virginia, lots of “once proud” towns and once good, crumbling infrastructure here, too.
Anybody remember The Vapors circa. 1980, the year Reagan entered stage right? Quite the coincidence…
“I’m turning Japanese, I think I’m turning Japanese, I really think so
Turning Japanese, I think I’m turning Japanese, I really think so
I’m turning Japanese, I think I’m turning Japanese, I really think so
Turning Japanese, I think I’m turning Japanese, I really think so…”“Fed Panics: Powell Cuts Rates To Zero, Announces $700BN QE5, Unveils Enhanced Global Swap Lines”
As a contractor/plumber, if I have “solved the problem” twice, yet still have a problem, I realize I’ve misdiagnosed. If I’m lucky my customer gives me a chance to re-examine the problem
It must be different in finance, but these guys are educated, I’m sure #6 will be the charm.
As someone recently said, “There is no room for contingency planning and preparation in for-profit healthcare”.
Nancy Agee makes $1.9M running Carilion Healthcare, a not-for-profit, in little ol’ Roanoke, Virginia.
You either build guardrails (contingency, with no “investor return”), or you put a high-profit ambulance in the valley (with a high, high profit ‘copter idling on the roof for the wealthy).
Raul,
Your post is a highlight in these times. Wish we could get you written into some bill so you could feed at the “Primary Dealers Window” of the Fed. I’d argue your solitary contribution is far greater than any hedge fund (but that doesn’t help keep the lights on…)Just watched Tulsi’s tweet (above) and am trying to learn how to not engage or get angry at morons who are fine with $1.5T for banks, but a grand for a single mom brings forth cries of “Work, not welfare!”.
The depth of our stupidity and blindness makes me rage, and makes me cry.
Recently read that ol’ Jerry Fakewell said, We’re not gonna be like other schools! We’re gonna stay open at Liberty!” Hope he’s kept his law license current, because he’ll need it!!
Possible meme,
Spot the difference below:
TRUMP: If you want to get tested for Coronavirus, you can get tested for Coronavirus.
OBAMA: If you want to keep your doctor, you can keep your doctor.The image that oftentimes forms in my mind when I start reading about these big bailouts, whatever, is that of a pothole.
There is no plan to actually fix or make changes to the road, just keep pouring money into the hole so that cars can drive over it – it’s continually sinking and continually being “topped off”, so one doesn’t realize how deep it is, nor how much has flowed down it.
When you look at the history of reserve currencies, it’s a pretty consistent graph. Human greed destroys the reserve currency status in 75 to 100 years. Right on schedule. And then the pitchforks and torches come out, things “bounce”, and we move along.
Not as complex as the utterings that come out of a central bankers mouth, but his back is against the wall, not mine.
The “freelance” laborers in my circle laugh at the idea of “staying home”
Laugh and say, “Yeah, so the banks we bail out can take everything I have when I miss a payment?
I don’t think so…
They took the land in the dustbowl days and sold it off, that ain’t happening this time…”We’ll see… Interesting times. Some of us are “in this together”.
America: we never met a problem that could not be solved with a checkbook (whether there’s money in the account or not).
I read that Harvard has asked students not to return after spring break, true?
My professor friends are talking of teaching “on-line” so this won’t be a big inconvenience. To them. From what I see, these same academics are seeing the world in a very simplistic way: everything just moves along, log on and continue. It seems to me that economic and/or political factors will quickly rise (already have?) in importance. I have laborer friends who have clients telling them: “Sorry. Money market account is down, no work for you”.
One thing that’s crossed my mind is ALL the entities that have political influence, approaching the powers-that-be in prostration, asking to be (financially) “saved”, and arguing why they are more important than the other. What kinds of numbers could we be talking about? Mind-numbing…
Wow, Raul, you work your tail off! And am not just noticing that suddenly, (will hit patreon right away) thank you.
In a small town hosting a big University and everyone’s talking about: “What happens when the students come back from spring break (after mainly going home to DC, NJ, Maryland..)?
Yeah, what happens?
Was thinking about the Art of the Deal… It seems the President’s methods of jaw-boning and self-promoting, running the other down, bullying, and bribing are ineffective against this type of adversary.
Sort of reminds me of a near altercation a neighbor recently had with two aggressive “bullying” guys. So neighbor, he picked up a shovel, to even things out. One of the aggressive bullies said, “I ain’t afraid of no shovel!” to which neighbor replied, “Hey dipshit, this shovel doesn’t care if you’re scared or not when it hits you upside the head!”
I think the virus (whatever it’s name today) is the same. It clearly won’t be talked-to-death, bullied or bribed.
Pompeo blasted China for its lack of transparency.
“That’s not the way infectious disease doctors tell me it should work. It’s not the way America works with transparency and openness and the sharing of the information that needs to take place.”
(Hey Mr. Pompeo, we’ve got Julian Assange on the other line…please, please tell us again how transparency and openness works here in America. He’s dying to know)
One thing that just doesn’t make sense to me is, from what I can tell, the lack of cases on university campuses. It seems a bunch of Chinese students flew home to China at mid-semester, and then returned to university.
I would imagine that administrators are sweating bullets. They dodged the “Me Too” bullet, and sure didn’t see this one coming. I stopped by an Asian Supermarket last evening that caters to a very large university. It was packed, and I didn’t see a single concern or mask.
Anyone able to straighten me out on this?
More importantly, let’s talk about the benefits of demonic possession!!
Sorry illargi, for some reason that really got me smiling…maybe ‘cuz I’m just down the road from Mr. Falwell and his University of Hypocrisy (HOW much Federal money flows into your pockets sir?!?)
Okay, back to Covid19…
I’m actually a little surprised that we haven’t seen more viral hotspots at the big universities…I’ve heard there are cases in Dane County, WI (Madison), but that’s it.
A recent newspaper article regarding the universities referred to a “looming cliff” in enrollment due to demographics. C-19 could potentially accelerate that? Those institutions are sure great at scaling up, but not at scaling down!
While out with friends enjoying some music last evening, someone said, “We shouldn’t be worried about Coronavirus because the flu kills many, many more!”
I didn’t have a good response, so I didn’t reply. In hindsight – and I’m asking here – is “guess” that the 2019nCoV has both a higher mortality rate and possibly affects the body differently. ? Thoughts??
(But if we were to name it the Blue Sky & Clean Water Virus and create a derivative the financial markets could trade, all would be good)
With regard to “children playing”. Living in Racine, WI years ago I remember a nearby church playground, wonderful “jungle gyms” and manicured lawns. Fenced. And a sign prominently posted saying, “In honor of the Lord’s day, please refrain from using this playground on Sundays”.
A twisted, sick mentality in my opinion. Wish I had a picture of that sign…
It’s all like “reality” television, a format Mr. Trump seems to love, but only when he’s the only writer, or has final edit powers. We await his Midwest peace proposal where, again, he seems to think he has final editing power (over his ghost writers).
Sadly, he’s clearly incapable of learning the fact that others have agency, no matter how limited.
On the issue of rising interest rates, I couldn’t help but make a comparison between the apparent “prairie fire” growth of coronavirus and a coming worldwide debt contagion.
Add locusts and it just gets really depressing (if it’s possible to get more depressing).
I wear ear protection with a radio as I labor, and normally listen to classical music. But I have listened to 95% of the presentation thus far, and will again when I get back from the feed mill this morning.
In my mind Shiff & Co. have done an admirable job in making a case against the president and his abuse of power. Prior to listening I thought the charges were all made up and partisan.
But I voted against Trump because of his character, and I voted against Hillary because of her neo-conservative foreign policy (thinking she’d quickly lead us to war against Russia).
Sadly, I think we are now witnessing “prosecutorial over-reach” as Congressman Shiff reaches to connect all this to a “bad, bad” Putin. Conveniently left out are our walking away from treaties, including the promise not to expand NATO.
I went into this believing that neither side wore the proverbial “white hat”, and Congressman Shiff proved me correct. The whole “Russia-gate” is an unsettled affair and it should have been left alone in this case, IMHO.
A strategy I would have preferred would have been an open discussion of the hyper-partisanship, a search to mend that at the highest level. This same “use of presidential power” would be used to attack members of the president’s own party who “stepped out of line”, and the clearer minds of the world’s greatest deliberative body needed to stitch this country back together through compromise. Real leadership.
But no…
Instead, Shiff & Company opened up a huge, huge ‘nother, unsettled, partisan can of worms. It’s like listening to a person discuss a theory, and you slowly find yourself agreeing…and then next thing you know this seemingly rational person is talking about the “lizard people at the earth’s core in power” and NOW you need to dismiss their entire previous argument.
So close, representative Shiff, so close…
Listening to this back-and-forth all afternoon, (a back-and-forth that will sway no one) it seems to me that the president is guilty as heck, but the prosecutors screwed up the process in so many ways they can’t possibly win at this point.
Trying to argue facts that they didn’t seem to chase down (why?) hard enough, they’re constantly undercut on process. An impulsive man will get tripped up in a patient, dogged, detailed process, he can’t handle that! A 33 day delay is not the same thing.
Hindsight would say that a patient, stand-offish approach to the president over the years would have simply reinforced his belief in his own “perfectness”… and given him plenty of rope to hang himself. Metaphorically speaking, of course.
Frank Kilgore, a SW Virginia lawyer by vocation, and historian by avocation, wrote a recent Roanoke Times editorial that seems to speak (in my mind) to the photograph and Dr. D’s comment.
In a nutshell, an integrated Little League team from the coalfields of Appalachia kicked the snot out of a segregated Little League team from oh-so-pc-proper Charlottesville back in 1951.
He goes on to talk about other examples of not-sexism and not-racism of the working class, possibly ahead of the curve, folks in Appalachia.
@ John Day – in the event of another 2008,
How many millions would be foreclosed on (by a system we bailed out)?
Has the mindset changed and a peaceful “moving on” is a thing of the past?
The folks I know and work for who have been piling out of the market, buying real assets and then trying to raise the debt don’t even seem capable of entertaining such thoughts (I probe gently).Yes, the folks who have been reading you, some since The Oil Drum, understand and appreciate your take on the issues, Illargi.
President Trump seems to have recognized the existence of the forgotten members of our society, who were not only left out but actively hurt by such policies.
To listen to people talk, the radio, the television, we seem to think Trump is this “out there” candidate. Will the next populist presidential candidate figure out a way to communicate this fairly complex idea (the crux of your above writing) to the masses, and out-Trump even Mr. Trump?
Maybe we’ll be seeing “Miss me yet?” bumper-stickers of The Donald in 2025…
Sadly, when trying to discuss issues, whether Skripal or Assange or just about anything, I always seem to have to preface my comments with: “I’m not a Trump fan”. I get it, Raul, It gets really old.
I just wrote a wide-ranging letter to family back in the Midwest and felt compelled to call them before it arrived and say, “I’m NOT a Trump fan. I’m just trying to look at the issues”.
NPR is on in the background and the woman who testified today is heard saying: “It wasn’t Ukraine, it was Russia!” Really? Still haven’t seen evidence of election meddling… (8 programmers trolling on Facebook wouldn’t make a dent against K Street).
And then there’s Giuliani throwing out HIS bogeyman: “It’s George Soros!”
Keep it up, Raul (as long as you’re able and willing)
I also greatly appreciated the words from North of my border.
If your 737 Max is flying upside down I think you’d be headed for a power-on stall (if MCAS kicks in). In a similar manner, if one’s reading was NOT tempered by sites such as TAE, you’d also be getting positive feedback and getting farther away from stability.
Just down the road here in central Appalachia the administration at Radford University (Virginia) has taught thousands of students that feeling can, indeed, overrule law, with no consequences to those with the Ph.D’s and tenure.
All student newspaper racks “just happened” to be completely emptied before Katie Couric came to town on Sept. 18th. A police investigation determined it was a low-level employee acting “on his own” with absolutely NO direction from a superior. The low-level hourly wage employee has been subsequently disciplined. First Amendment to the constitution meet “feelings”, and be damned! The articles in that newspaper just “felt” wrong!
So now we are back to our regular buffet of criticizing the president for breaking the law and acting impulsively…
Up the road we have Jerry “If it’s Republican it must be moral” Falwell further joining evangelicals with the Republican party. Liberty University’s very own Caesar doesn’t want to talk about the FEDERAL AID flowing to his tens of thousands of “online” students, though!
Thanks for that recent post, Illargi!
One more thing, it seems John Michael Greer is also accused of being “right leaning”, when he’s simply applying (what I believe to be) critical thinking.
Illargi,
I, too, am not right-leaning, but am often accused as such for simply raising an objection or questioning some detail. More and more I simply nod in silence.Still pondering your piece the other day regarding a tendency to confuse the subjective with the objective. “Hearsay” would fall into the subjective camp. Evidence only in the court of public opinion, as Limbaugh and Hannity know and manipulate so well, those few times I try to listen.
Sadly, I hear what I find to be biased presuppositions and assumptions in the analysis and reporting of my old “go to”, NPR as well. Much more subtle.
Appreciate your take, and your questioning.
To my way of thinking, wonderfully succinct Vindman piece. Four main points, well supported.
There are few places where one can question this ongoing process, or similar processes or events, and not be immediately crammed into one side of the “argument” or the other.
Living here in central Appalachia, your posts are a lifeline to sanity. Like you, I’m not a Trump fan, nor am I a “never Trumper” (or whatever it’s called nowadays). It makes me “insane” to see the frothing at the mouth with regard to the President and his behavior, and then pick up the local paper and read how the administration at Radford University “stole” all the student newspapers from the racks when a photo angered them. Really?!?! Anybody familiar with the term “irony”?
Your work helps keep my basic critical thinking sharp – thank you.
To R Rapier’s point, I just got done watching theGerman interview on LiveLeak with Snowden and in some ways he seems like a man looking back over his shoulder while leading a charge and seeing… nothing!
To anyone with the patience to answer a very simple question… While talking with a friend the other day regarding the “World of Change” type issues, he simply said, “Fiat currencies are all faith-based anyway, so why don’t we just keep the faith and it all moves along fine?”
He doesn’t really believe it will, nor do I (history does have something to teach us), but I was not able to give a clear answer. Do financial players “attack” a country or position eventually (never quite understood how they “attack” a currency, country…). Do the markets eventually take over bond/interest rates?
My way of understanding (part of) the current situation is that we ARE in a depression/deflation, but the money is going to buy all this bad paper… just reading the numbers on DB’s derivatives tells you that that is a bottomless pit… that paper will never be paid off and then hyperinflation start.
Guess I’ll just go back to work, strive to be worth more than I’m paid, stay out of debt, learn skills, take care of the garden and the chickens, continue building a small community of semi-like-minded folk… (but I am curious about this “higher-level” financial thinking stuff…)
Apropos of nothing, but also maybe everything… I swing a hammer for work, and usually have a radio on, and the unrelenting talk about “cutting spending”, and “welfare” and all that makes me sick because these talking heads can’t seem to turn around and see the $ (fill in the blank) billion PER MONTH that the Fed is spending as more of the same.
Talking with a co-worker yesterday and we realized that if your industry is so overwhelmingly vital to the everyday life of the United States of A, that you can’t possibly fail or everyone goes down with you… then you are not a “free market industry”… you are a UTILITY. And like water, electricity, transportation, you should be GOVERNED like a utility. And that includes appropriation for your (much less than imagined) personal risk.
We also realized that this is the perennial system, it’s not gonna change. But it sure makes for interesting conversation.
Banking is a Utility now…
Good evening Ilargi,
I, for one, enjoyed that thread. Speaking for myself, different parts of this whole complex mess become “clear” (if that’s possible) at different times… the whole “energy needed to support this level of complexity” is one I’m still trying to wrap my brain around.
With regard to the debt, it’s a tough one to even begin to grasp for a lot of reasons, and I’ll name two: (a) the CONSTANT message – brainwashing? – coming from the powers-that-be (and their shills) that everything is good, and (b) the sheer ENORMITY of the numbers. It’s like trying to think in geological time or something… incomprehensible.
I appreciate you and Nicole and others reaching out to give a mental “hand-up” to me when I’m stuck on aspect that may be clear-as-day to you/them, but a new and/or confusing concept to me. Back in the late 80’s, fresh out of college, I was working for a Fortune 500 company and I remember the plant manager of our flagship plant telling me that government debt didn’t matter… (sure would be interesting to run into HIM today!)
Thanks for more clarity. The folks you have commenting on your blog are unsurpassed, in my book.
