boscohorowitz
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“Science is not “logical;” science is factual.”
The understanding that made gravity a fact that we can use to orbit satellites, etc., required logic. Science uses logic to understand existing facts and discover new facts.
“What goes up must come down” was a “fact” until we understood, via logic, gravity as a certain kind of attractive ‘force’ or ‘field’ or (we still don’t know ‘what’ gravity is) that could be opposed via thrust so that what goes up doesn’t come down, like Voyager, currently approaching genuine interstellar space.
Just because dogmatic greenies and covidiots use the word science a lot doesn’t invalidate or redefine essential scientific methodology.
Tune in tomorrow when we redefine ‘sex’, having exhaustively redefined ‘gender’.
“Science is mostly witchcraft.”
Well, then. That settles that. Entropy is just an evil spell, and gravity is something to do with magic elves who live at the core of the planet.
Carry on, brave warrior. It’s fun to express oneself on the internet! Relax, dude: none of us are right all the time. Not even you.
No, you’re wrong. (That was kinda fun.)
“Once all the available energy in that band has been absorbed”
This allegedly loony leftist (I’m certainly loony but no more “left” than “right”) points out that the particular band of electro-magnetic radiation is also incessantly pouring into the atmosphere.
You’re in over your head. Science is not politics, and the two mix as dangerously as politics and religion. Science is about logic and data, not political outrage. But whatever, keep on calling me names. It seems to give you a kind of relief.
We can’t all disagree and be correct at the same time, except maybe in some multiverse built on complimentary ambiguity. Some times we’re right; sometimes we’re wrong. I say: let’s take turns!
Here, have some names to call me:
I prefer to be called a deturpate doghole, fwiw. You can add “liberal” or “leftist” if it pleases you although it’s not factually correct. Facts are SO lame, right? *smooch*
Music for energy grid disruption )if one can play piano well enough or has an ancient wind-up Victrola record player and an old 78rpm recording.
I see many people confusing outrage against climate change exploitation (“green” “energy”, both words needing quotes when used by green energy hucksters)with the actual concept of global climate disruption via warming (increased retention of solar radiation). Whatever “then truth” is, those topics are nonetheless entirely separate at their foundations.
As for selfish wokesters: they hardly have a monopoly. Conservative patriots love fireworks to celebrate our wars, in the process triggering major PTSD episodes in the actual veteran soldiers who fought those wars.
Let’s form ideological camps and fling poo! Poo mounted on fireworks! Into the local drinking water reservoir!
“Once all the available energy is absorbed”: but it isn’t a “once”, it’s a perpetual stream. In space, the sun never stops shining, and the world’s atmosphere is constantly exposed to this, directly by radiation of half the planet’s surface, indirectly by conduction and convection.
The sunglasses analogy: wear those sunglasses in a sealed space where the sunlight can’t escape except some radiation back through the window that lets the sunlight in (as is the case with our planet and its surrounding atmosphere. Those sunglasses will grow steadily hotter and hotter.
It’s a cute trick, this meme, but it doesn’t fit basic science as even I understand it, and I am no scientist, just a guy who thinks for himself… oh wait. Thinking for yourself is the foundation of science. Hey! Maybe I’m a genius! Woohoo!
“Moreover, the better part of 9,000 Javelin launchers have been shipped to Ukraine, yet the usual annual output sits at just 800 units, suggesting the United States has drawn heavily on its stockpiles to keep Kiev flush with weapons.”
Waxing creepy for a moment: this leaves USA with little else BUT the nuclear option, cyber-sabotage, and bio/chem-weapons. Some say we’ve already deployed a bioweapon (das kovid).
“The difference between kicking a homeless dog and kicking one with a caring guardian who has a big stick and is prepared to use it.”
Not to put too fine a point on it, but that was useless.
O vent of spleen! Why on Ford’s raped earth does it require 1:46:15 to tell us why Everything Changes Tomorrow at 3pm Moscow time?
Can anyone gimme a simple summary?? Yeesh. No need to explain or justify, just the basic gizmo.
As for Russian retaliation: an entity with “balls” does what it will when it’s good and ready to. Putin surely would chuckle reading all the armchair generals telling him why he’s losing the war. Oy vey.
As for pipeline monitoring: there are a LOT of pipelines in this world, many underwater. There are a LOT of ships in a busy place like the Baltic.
I’m pretty sure that Russia has an idea of who did what but it doesn’t have to tell what it knows unless it wants to, and would do so when it wanted to.
“To know how to hide one’s ability is great skill. Francois de La Rochefoucauld”
The War Has Just Begun The Winter of Yuri
Nifty, non-hysterical analysis.
Regarding Russia and this “balls” thing people seem to think are so imp[ortant in geopolitical confrontations, I repeat from yesterday:
Dmitry Medvedev says:
“There are four reasons for the use of nuclear weapons. For the sake of interest and for the French public, I will name them: the launch of nuclear missiles, the use of nuclear weapons, attacks on critical infrastructure that controls nuclear weapons, or other actions that threaten the existence of the [Russian] state,” he said, adding that none of the above has happened so far.”
Dmitry Peskov says Kremlin says: “Nord Stream explosions ‘a big problem for Russia’ ”
Not an existential threat, however, except maybe for Germany and certainly for the EU as a binding political agency.
One hell of a methane release, eh?
***
A 50% turnout is standard in most elections. If a referendum, to maintain democracy as form of governance in an already democratic nation were held in most democratic nations, said referendum would probably fail due to lack of voter turnout.WInter is coming.
(If we can call the annual cooling called winter a form of climate change. Close enough.)
Dmitry Medvedev says:
““There are four reasons for the use of nuclear weapons. For the sake of interest and for the French public, I will name them: the launch of nuclear missiles, the use of nuclear weapons, attacks on critical infrastructure that controls nuclear weapons, or other actions that threaten the existence of the [Russian] state,” he said, adding that none of the above has happened so far.”
Meanwhile:
“EU to ban Russian toilet paper
Shaving products, soap, floss and deodorant are also on the proposed import ban list”and
“Biden calls for dead congresswoman
“Where’s Jackie?” the US president asked at a White House event, looking for the late Representative Walorski… US President Joe Biden on Wednesday called out for a congresswoman who had died in a car crash in early August – apparently forgetting his own statement of condolence to her family, or the tribute video that reportedly aired before the event.“Jackie, are you here? Where’s Jackie,” he said, looking at the people attending the White House Conference on Hunger, Nutrition, and Health. “She was going to be here,” he added, according to NPR. Others quoted Biden as saying “She must not be here,” based on video footage from the event.”
and
“Second energy protest roils EU country
Tens of thousands accused Prague of serving Brussels and Washington instead of Czechia”and:
“NATO member wants ‘devastating’ retaliation against Russia
The bloc’s response to any use of WMDs by Moscow in Ukraine must not be nuclear, but still massive, Poland’s foreign minister says”and:
“US has plan if Russia uses nukes – Blinken
Moscow will face “horrific” consequences if it uses weapons of mass destruction, the top US diplomat warns”Weirdness and mayhem, idiocy and buffoonery.
Even Hitler’s ghost has had enough:
“Germany is in the position of the no. 1. henchman of the dominating foreign power. Leaving that role, position, will be so costly it can’t be contemplated. By them.”
Germany is indeed between a rock and a hard place. I think that it’s populace will be the deciding factor. When the power goes off during winter, democracy rules by mob.
I’ll also note that power loss would affect US military bases also. One wonders if US military personnel will find themselves hitch-hiking home… dressed in civilian garb… doing their best to look and sound European.
I doubt that Germany’s leaders tenure will last very long. People hungry, cold, and broke demand — and get — change.
In which USNATO/Euromerica/Teh West tries to lead the global band:
I have periodically given Dr. D. a very hard time. Never mind why/what for or whether I even understood what I thought I was critiquing. Seeing as how the internet’s existence is officially very precarious*, I wanted to take a moment and show him some honor. I think he deserves it. He talks an awful lot (like I tend to do also) but he also listens an awful lot, and remembers much of what he hears.
“He who listens, understands.” (aphorism from a Yogi brand tea label, my fave scriptures for the past two years)
I’ve learned a lot from Dr. D.
If anyone tries to honor or say nice things about me: don’t, pls. It will only infuriate some people. But feel free to say bad things about me. I prefer things I can rely on.
“Yes, definitely. But WHO in the Empire?”
In capitals, WHO is an acronym. I don’t think that World Health Org fits this bill, but World Hell Org has a salient ring.
Speculation closure: or it may be smartest for Vlad just to watch the Empire destroy itself and blame Russia. That seems the obvious no-brainer logical choice but it doesn’t sit with my gut. Rabid dogs don’t tasme of their own. They have to be put out of their misery.
For me, the primary speculation point is about just how insanely irrational the USA Imperial Command is at this point. COmpared to that, the rest is pretty well known.
As for 100ks of Russians fleeing, consider this:
Russia has an estimated 14 million migrant workers.
100k here or there is a piffle.
“Energinet plans to commission Baltic Pipe with partial capacity from 1 October 2022, by using parts of the existing gas transmission system in Denmark as temporary replacement for the parts that have been delayed. The entire project is expected to be operational at full annual capacity of up to 10 BCM by 1 January 2023.”
***
“In 2019, the twenty-seven EU members’ total demand for natural gas peaked at 390 billion cubic meters (bcm). Because of the strong EU climate policy, it is unlikely to reach that level again. In 2019, Russian gas supplies to the twenty-seven EU members also peaked at 168 bcm, or 43 percent of total EU natural-gas consumption. In 2021, the anticipated Russian natural-gas exports to the EU amount to 135 bcm and are expected to decline gradually to 120 bcm a year by 2030.1 The decline is not likely to be precipitous because Central Europe will replace some coal with gas, and Germany some nuclear power with gas, but no increase is expected.
“Out of a maximum annual Russian gas supply of 135 bcm, 110 bcm—81 percent—could pass through the two Nord Stream pipelines. ”
10bcm is hardly enough to replace the 135 BCM Russia used to provide the EU with.
Poland would be nuts to sabotage Nord Stream on its own, especially a Russian pipeline. But then, I hear Poland is kinda nuts these days, so maybe so. But it sure smells like USA Empire is behind this.
The methane in the pipeline is much lighter than water and is shipped under pressure as condensed liquid. I’m quite sure that the pumps shut off as soon as they felt the pressure drop and have stayed off since. It is just that a cylinder several feet wide in diameter and many miles long, contains a lot of pressurized liquid natural gas.
I think that the 27th is close enough to the 24th, and that deliberate sabotage of the last main energy source for many millions of people qualifies as a deployment of a Weapon of Mass Destruction.
I think that this act demonstrates that the creeps-in-charge are raving bonkers. Enter plausible chance of thermonuclear activity.
I believe that Putin has ample balls or courage or ruthless military logic to indeed push the nuclear button just as I also think it’s childishly fear-driven prattle to even suggest that it takes “balls” to make and act on such a decision. When one is existentially backed up against a wall, one either folds or finds courage. I don’t see Putin folding in that situation… or me for that matter.
“The way Vladimir Putin tells it, one of his great teachers in life was a rat.
“As a boy in Leningrad, he once chased a particularly fat one down the hallway of his apartment building. Cornered, the squealing creature turned on young Putin and tried to bite him. Terrified, the boy fled into his parents’ apartment, slamming the door in the rat’s face.
“The lesson, Putin recalls, was clear: never put someone’s back against the wall”
I don’t think that this pipeline sabotage itself will trigger such a response, but I’m certain that Russia’s readiness levels for its most advanced nuke/conventional boom-boom delivery systems are now elevated to its highest shrieking No-Vodka-on-the-Job alertness level.
I think the nail-biting moment will be when Germany begs Russia to take it under protection or some such moment.
“It was evening; the sky was filled with dragons — this time, yellow ones. The widow murmured a single sentence, “The vixen seeks the dragon’s wing,” as she stepped aboard the ship.”
“The widow understood. She threw her two swords into the river, knelt in the bottom of a boat, and ordered that she be taken to the flagship of the emperor’s fleet.
“The vixen seeks the dragon’s wing…”
At such a moment I think it’s more likely that the emotional castrati who are in charge of USNATO will nuke their own as a false flag than it is for likely Putin to go trigger-happy. For Putin to pull that trigger would, I should think, require his opponents to perform acts that kill/maim many millions of his own people, or perhaps just millions of people, period. Either way, it plays well on the global stage, makes for good geopolitical optics along with the mushroom cloud, and a man with the “balls” to use nukes surely knows that good optics are crucial in a world where many nations have nukes. He needs to be seen as the Justified Good Guy if the world is to have a chance at nuclear peace during this transition from plenty to poverty. An honest-to-goodness goddam global policeman, even: the world is quite ready to be saved from the USA Empire.
To prevail in a way that isn’t a Pyrrhic victory, Putin needs to have all the other nuclear nations at least stand aside (unless fired at, of course; no one’s going to accept a nuclear removal of a city). Let’s metaphorically say that if USNATO is a global cancer, we don’t want the chemo that kills it to kill the global patient as well.
I think it’s gotten close to inevitable that we’ll see thermonuclear activity during this war. How much, how effectively used…???? No one’s going to let the bad guy, who is also the only nation to have used atomic bombs in war, get away with a nuclear 911 that isn’t on USA soil.
Strategically, it rather makes sense for Putin to be poised to fire a bunch of hypersonic tactical nukes at key targets immediately if such an event happens. In a fight where one is compelled to wait for the other guy to throw the first punch, one is wise to be prepared to hit him at least half a dozen times before he’s even had a chance to pull his fist back — even if his first punch was to hit himself in the face.
Not like any of us have a clue what’s happening, really. We just watch our magic screens and play 5-D chess with each other.
I hear much talk about Russian draft-dodgers, big queues at the borders, etc.
I say that the thing to be concerned about is if a bunch if Euromerican bigwigs decide to have a sudden summit on a South Pacific Island… or have one conveniently planned for October, when the first really cold weather kicks in (WES can tell us about that).
I would take that as evidence that a nuclear exchange might be direly imminent.
But a nation calling a draft/calling up reserves amid a conflict everyone sees as the flashpoint for a genuine WWIII (in big bold CAPS), and many young men seeking to evade the prospects of going to war where it actually happens?
Nothing remarkable here at all. No tea leaves to be read in that data other than to confirm what most of us already believe we know: Russia ain’t playing around.
P.S. Internet here in West SLope neighborhood of Portland Oregon has been degrading since the early days of covidf and has since last week been virtually unusable for hours at a time except, of course, for mainstream propaganda/public mind-reading sites (including youtube).
I feel one thing related to climate-whatever is this: anthropocentric weather disaster.
For whatever reason, we’re having our share of wild erratic weather, something that happens a lot over the small-change millennia.
We notice it much more than before because there are so many of us, living in so many places, of which many places are especially vulnerable to weather extremes, with more of the humans than not dependent on a large complex technosphere itself reliant on local, regional, national, multi-national, and even global hierarchic systems.
Paradoxically, at the same time, we gradually grow immune to reports of these disasters. Another massive flood wi[ping out most of a nation’s crop. Ho-hum. Yet we still amplify these events through our respective echo-chambers: a) See? I told you global warming was real. b) Periods of bad weather happen all the time; no big deal.
A single death is a tragedy, several million deaths is just a statistic. A single major hurricane is a disaster. A slew of them is a statistic to debate online, I guess?
Too many people too many places dependent on too many things they can’t provide for themselves creates an economic/cultural climate that can’t stand much bad weather, even if it’s “only” natural” and “only” for a decade or three.
“Michael Hudson only goes a little way down the rabbit hole.”
Another trend I’ve noticed of late is a major increase in judgments of whose pundit is “really” real, likewise bickering over same. Not that I have any firm opinion on how far Hudson or others go down the rabbit hole. At this point, limited hangouts grow grow longer and more common everyday: then truth can’t be hidden or controlled anymore; strategic retreat via gradual acknowledgement of this fact is the only game left outside of manufacturing new problems t distract from the old.
When we get to the point where the only effective distraction is a nuclear exchange, we’ll know just how crazy or inept are those with the power to initiate such an event. We may not know it for very long, but we’ll know it. 😉
IMO, one of Dylan’s finest moments:
“Russia Enacts Lengthy Prison Sentences for Wartime Desertion & Refusal to Serve”
15 years in prison for “voluntary” surrender, also amid reports Putin is preparing to issue travel ban for military age males.”The desertion restriction is probably focused on prevent NGOs from sowing too much dissent over the war.
The travel ban is pretty much going to be de facto soon, with or without rulings. War is hard on tourism, one might say.
No voluntary surrender is actually a kindness, from what I know of Ukrainian actions in the killing fields.
I submit that Putin is also fighting to maintain sovereignty internally, hence the major dissension amid a war that is patently necessary if Russia wants to remain Russian. No more Pussy Riots for you!
In the sites I frequent that question the Russian narrative from an insider Russian perspective, the number of anti-Russian commentators (alleging to be Russian or authoritative somehow on Russian matters) has gone sky-high of late, most of them one-note Johnnies, a trait we often associate with troll-bots.
I am of course generally dismissed as a Putin apologist.
One can see this impulse ever trying to express itself here, but no one clique gains enough dominance to effectively censor unorthodox views.
I post this with gleeful trepidation, since it’s becoming hard to deliver dire weather forecasts without stepping into some tedious old climate disruption argument.
Anyway, looks like it’s gonna be a wobbly winter.
Time for the annual “looming government shutdown”.
Oh, promises, promises. But maybe they really WILL shut it down this time. Hope springeth eternal.
‘Pink Floyd co-founder Roger Waters has penned a blunt open letter to Russian President Vladimir Putin, seeking guarantees that Russia will not expand beyond the Donbass and Crimea and will never “invade anyone ever again.”
Dipshit.
“Ad hominems are useful at times to force science and discussion. This will take a while, so I’ll make short installments.”
No, we’re wrong.
Having used everything from ad hominems bordering on physical threats to being very nice and softly, meticulously spoken, I would scientifically challenge this notion. Based on almost 20 years of online discussions in fora like this, I adamantly assert that all ad hominems do is trigger an ego-shield against examining openly and objectively whatever is to be scientifically discussed.
That said, being polite and respectful and wise and careful with data will also get your tires slashed on the typical online form. In real life, most of the time, too.
amanhearswhathewantstohearanddisregardstherest.
So, ad hominems are counter-productive.
But of course that is wrong, because third parties to the discussion will often enter with the calm voice of reason and a dispassionately organized trove of solid data, and increase the quality of understanding of the topic at hand.
In so doing, the Calm Voice of Reason will likely invoke the enmity of both the ad hominer and ad hominee, for the CVoR usually clarifies the issue in a way that shows that the -er and the -ee are both wrong.
“The link you provided is about Cobalt mining which absolutely proves nothing about Lithium mining. You are wrong again, but this time with a shake of false news.”
No, you’re right, I’m wrong! Me bad! You good! Yeah!
I confused cobalt’s place in lithium battery production with lithium itself. Old brain gets fogged in here sand there. (Although it isn’t necessary to use cobalt, per my understanding, it’s a component in most lithium batteries I’d googled child labor lithium mining and that was a prominent link. I skimmed a bit too fast for an old fart with lousy glasses.
Yea, I’m wrong! Does this prove I’m not a robot? I wanna be a real boy not a wooden social puppet.
Amid insanity and waste and destruction, a golden age shines through here and there.
