May 132025
 


Henri Matisse Bathers by a river 1909-16

 

Trump Floats Joining Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks in Istanbul (ZH)
Kremlin Issues Update On Proposed Ukraine Peace Talks (RT)
‘Stop The Clownery’ – Top Russian MP To Zelensky (RT)
Zelensky Should ‘Grasp’ Opportunity Offered By Putin – George Galloway (RT)
Trump Rallies GOP To Back ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ (ZH)
US, China Reach Agreement To Lower Tariffs In 90-Day Cool-Off Period (ZH)
China’s Keynesian Model Is Crumbling. It Needs a Trade Deal, Fast. (Lacalle)
Major Breakthroughs in US-China Trade Negotiations (Mehta)
Gaddafi Warned Them. Now The EU Is Living Out His Grim Prophecy (RT)
Kallas A ‘Tragedy’ For EU – MEP (RT)
Ukraine’s EU Entry Would Drag Bloc Into War – Orban (RT)
Multiculturalism Fail: Britain Makes a U-Turn on Immigration (Margolis)
Le Pen Pines For Unified Nationalist Front In European Parliament (RMX)
Trump Announces EO to Lower Prescription Drug Prices through MFN Policy (CTH)
How Trump’s Drug Price Executive Order Will Affect Medicare (DS)
Growing Strain in the Trump-Netanyahu Relationship Worsens (Devlin)
MAHA Hugger Mugger (James Howard Kunstler)
Trump’s Weaponization Czar Ed Martin: ‘It Worked Out Great’ (NYP)
America is Under Siege – 233 Federal Cases Against Trump – Larry Klayman (USAW)

 

 

 

 

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https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1921711875953242455

 

 

 

 

What’s the idea? Force Putin to show up? You can achieve much by meeting Putin, but not with Zelensky around.

I seriously wonder what their advisors tell Trump and Vance (who’s obviously poorly informed).

Trump Floats Joining Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks in Istanbul (ZH)

In yet another Ukraine peace talks related surprise, President Donald Trump on Monday floated the possibility of him traveling to Turkey to personally mediate negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, which are set for Thursday in Istanbul. “I was thinking about actually flying over there,” Trump said during a televised press conference on drug pricing. The words come after Ukraine’s President Zelensky said he’s ready to be there, and also challenged Putin to travel to the Turkish capital in person. “There’s a possibility of it, I guess, if I think things could happen,” Trump added, and the caveat: “I would fly there if I thought it would be helpful,””Thursday’s meeting with Russia and Ukraine is really important,” Trump said. “I was really insistent that that meeting take place. I think good things can come out of that meeting. Stop the bloodshed, it’s a bloodbath.”

The White House is backing a 30-day ceasefire plan, in hopes that it would lead to a final end to the bloodshed, with detailed negotiations in the interim. “I have a feeling they’re going to agree. I do. I have a feeling,” Trump also emphasized. The travel comments seemed more about displaying his personal optimism on new talks. He didn’t mention specifics or the challenge of logistics and setting up proper security, which can typically take days or weeks when it comes to presidential travel and coordination between the Secret Service and host nations. President Trump is about to embark on a trip to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and UAE – so a potential Turkey visit would require a stop-over upon the return trip. Zelensky was quick to respond to Trump’s public brainstorming, stating on X that “all of us in Ukraine would appreciate it if President Trump could be there with us at this meeting in Türkiye.” He added: “I hope that the Russians will not evade the meeting.”

It seems clear that in poking the Kremlin, Zelensky is really just seeking to performatively demonstrate to Washington and European allies that he’s willing to engage in negotiations, after Trump has ramped up the pressure, and given Kiev desperately needs to continue securing Western weapons and support. It remains that Zelensky has offered no big (territorial) concessions to end the war, so likely Putin isn’t too interested in traveling to Turkey personally, for something which would likely in the end be a bust in terms of finalizing a peace settlement. The Kremlin likely understands perfectly well that this is mostly Zelensky playing to the cameras, and seeking to satisfy Trump and ‘reset’ the relationship with the US. It’s anything but clear whether Zelensky will actually be in Istanbul at this point.

Read more …

“.. any pause in fighting would allow Ukraine to regroup its battered forces and continue its mobilization campaign. Moscow has also demanded that all Western arms deliveries to Ukraine be halted during any ceasefire period.”

Kremlin Issues Update On Proposed Ukraine Peace Talks (RT)

Russia is ready to resume direct peace talks with Ukraine, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has reiterated, stressing Moscow’s “serious” commitment to reaching a lasting settlement of the conflict. On Sunday, Russian President Vladimir Putin offered Ukraine the opportunity to restart direct negotiations without any preconditions in Istanbul, Türkiye, which Kiev unilaterally walked away from in 2022. However, Ukraine, backed by several European nations, has demanded that Russia agree to a ceasefire first as a precondition for talks. After US President Donald Trump urged Kiev to “immediately” agree to the proposal for direct unconditional talks, Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky said he would be waiting for Putin in Türkiye on Thursday “personally.”

Nevertheless, he maintained that Kiev awaits “a full and lasting ceasefire, starting from tomorrow [Monday], to provide the necessary basis for diplomacy.” Asked about the progress in the Ukraine peace process, Peskov told reporters on Monday that Moscow remains committed to “resuming direct talks in Istanbul without any preconditions.” Moscow’s approach is aimed at “finding a genuine diplomatic resolution to the Ukrainian crisis, addressing the root causes of the conflict, and achieving a lasting peace,” Peskov said. He added that Putin’s proposal had received support from “leaders of many countries,” including those in several former Soviet republics and BRICS members.

The spokesman also noted that Trump had “called on the Ukrainian side to urgently, and without any conditions, take part in the meeting we proposed,” while pointing to Türkiye’s readiness to facilitate the talks. “In general, we are focused on a serious effort to find a path toward a long-term peaceful resolution.” Moscow has said it is open to a ceasefire “in general,” but has flagged several crucial concerns. Russian officials argue that any pause in fighting would allow Ukraine to regroup its battered forces and continue its mobilization campaign. Moscow has also demanded that all Western arms deliveries to Ukraine be halted during any ceasefire period.

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“He should recall his first profession less often and stop the clownery..”

‘Stop The Clownery’ – Top Russian MP To Zelensky (RT)

A senior Russian MP has blasted Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky for continuing to block peace negotiations with Moscow, saying Kiev should “stop the clownery” and return to diplomacy. In an interview with RT on Monday, State Duma Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Leonid Slutsky noted that Zelensky “banned negotiations for himself.” He was referring to the Ukrainian leader’s 2022 order banning direct negotiations with Russia as long as President Vladimir Putin remains in office. “He should recall his first profession less often and stop the clownery,” Slutsky said, in an apparent jab at Zelensky’s past as a comedian. On Sunday, the Russian president proposed resuming direct negotiations with Ukraine without any preconditions on May 15 in Istanbul. The peace settlement process must start with talks, which could ultimately yield “some kind of new truce and a new ceasefire,” according to Putin.

Slutsky urged the Ukrainian leadership be “rational,” calling negotiations the “only sensible step.” “We are ready to choose our delegation and fly to Istanbul even this minute,” he said. “Of course, the talks won’t be easy, but I hope we can truly bring the military phase of this conflict to an end. It is in everyone’s interest.” The lawmaker claimed that worldwide support for Russia’s offer is growing as the global majority has formed around Putin’s ideas of a multipolar world. “We must face reality and start negotiations. I urge everyone to morally support this position,” Slutsky said. He added that the number of countries supporting the conflict is “approaching zero,” and that “the path toward peace has been laid out by the Russian president, endorsed by US President [Donald Trump] and all reasonable people.”

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“..Zelensky would be better off ignoring the “train wreck crew that retreated from Kiev in that now famous train journey at the weekend..”

“..to Russia, the fundamental question in any potential peace talks would be whether an “enduring agreement… can be reached” with the current “illegitimate” Ukrainian leader..”

Zelensky Should ‘Grasp’ Opportunity Offered By Putin – George Galloway (RT)

Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky should seize the opportunity to restart direct negotiations offered by Russian President Vladimir Putin, as Kiev has “a losing hand” in all areas, the leader of the Workers Party of Britain, George Galloway, has said. In a televised address early on Sunday, Putin offered Kiev the chance to “resume the negotiations they interrupted in 2022… without any preconditions,” suggesting that talks could be held on Thursday in Istanbul. Speaking to RT on Monday, Galloway said “it’s a pity that his European friends haven’t told President Zelensky, as [US President] Donald Trump has told him, that this is an opportunity that simply must be grasped.” According to the former British MP, “the alternatives are really quite ghastly… for everyone concerned.”

Galloway added that Zelensky would be better off ignoring the “train wreck crew that retreated from Kiev in that now famous train journey at the weekend,” referring to the visit to the Ukrainian capital by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. “He should not listen to the likes of Starmer and Macron” as “they don’t represent anything practical,” Galloway insisted. He argued that none of the European NATO member states making up the so-called “coalition of the willing” have the military and economic might to be of any significance. Galloway added that to Russia, the fundamental question in any potential peace talks would be whether an “enduring agreement… can be reached” with the current “illegitimate” Ukrainian leader. Zelensky’s presidential term expired last May, although he has refused to hold elections, citing martial law.

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“..now, with the tremendous Drug and Pharmaceutical Cuts, plus massive incoming Tariff Money, our ‘GREAT, BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL’ just got much BIGGER and BETTER..”

Trump Rallies GOP To Back ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ (ZH)

President Donald Trump on Monday called on congressional Republicans to unify behind what he hailed as his “ONE, BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL,” a sweeping legislative package that merges tax cuts, immigration reforms, and a raft of domestic priorities into a single reconciliation measure. “This week the Republicans are meeting in the Tax, Energy, and Agriculture Committees on major pieces of ‘THE ONE, BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL,'” Mr. Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform, urging lawmakers to stand behind House committee chairs Jason Smith of Ways and Means, Brett Guthrie of Energy and Commerce, and Glenn “GT” Thompson of Agriculture. “We must WIN! But now, with the tremendous Drug and Pharmaceutical Cuts, plus massive incoming Tariff Money, our ‘GREAT, BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL’ just got much BIGGER and BETTER. The Golden Age of America will soon be upon us.”

The comments, made just before Mr. Trump’s planned trip to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, came as his administration unveiled an executive action to lower pharmaceutical drug prices by up to 90% under a new “Most Favored Nations” pricing policy. He also lashed out at Democrats, accusing them of trying to “DESTROY our Country” by offering amendments to the bill prior to his press conference. “When I return from the Middle East, where great things will happen for America, we will work together on any and all outstanding issues,” Mr. Trump added. “But there shouldn’t be many — The Bill is GREAT.”

Despite the urgency in his messaging, progress on Capitol Hill has been slow. Lawmakers have sent just five bills to Mr. Trump’s desk this Congress. Still, Speaker Mike Johnson is aiming to change that, setting a Memorial Day deadline to pass the reconciliation package through the House. GOP leadership hopes to finalize the bill by July 4 — a timeline that coincides with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s request for a debt-limit increase included in the package. On Monday, the house GOP released a draft of the bill (full text below)- which confirms several core policy pillars previously signaled by leadership. Among the most consequential is a 5% remittance tax on international money transfers, designed to fund border security, which includes a new refundable credit for verified U.S. senders and strict compliance rules.

In a significant rollback of Biden-era environmental policy, the bill would terminate or phase out numerous clean energy tax credits, including for residential solar, new energy-efficient homes, and hydrogen production, with sharp limits on components sourced from “prohibited foreign entities”—primarily targeting Chinese supply chains. The legislation also introduces a new federal income tax deduction for qualified tips and overtime compensation through 2028, aimed at working-class earners. However, these benefits explicitly exclude high earners, service-sector owners, and nontraditional tipping industries, and require both the employee and spouse to have Social Security numbers to qualify—adding a compliance hurdle that could reignite partisan fights over ID requirements.

Beyond those provisions, the bill extends provisions from the 2017 Trump tax law, including the higher estate and gift tax exemptions and the limitation on the deduction of state and local taxes (SALT), with a modified $30,000 cap for individuals that phases down for high earners. This could fuel renewed conflict with blue-state Republicans still pushing for full repeal. The bill further includes a new cap on the tax benefit of itemized deductions, revives limitations on casualty loss and moving expense deductions, and eliminates miscellaneous itemized deductions altogether—provisions likely to draw sharp resistance from Democrats, particularly those representing high-cost-of-living states.

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In a brief check of CNN yesterday, I learned that Trump had lost his trade venture in a terrible way. Because he came down from 145%. Well, I think he won. 2 weeks ago, the Chinese refused to talk. Now, they’re in a binding agreement to negotiate.

US, China Reach Agreement To Lower Tariffs In 90-Day Cool-Off Period (ZH)

During a Monday morning press conference, President Trump told reporters that trade negotiations have led to a “total reset” in U.S.-China relations. He added that he may speak with President Xi Jinping later this week. More headlines from Trump’s press conference (courtesy of Bloomberg):
TRUMP: Total Reset With China
TRUMP: No Decoupling With China
TRUMP: Doesn’t Include Cars, Steel, Aluminum
TRUMP: Will Speak to Xi Maybe at End of Week
TRUMP: China Deal ‘Not the Easiest Thing to Paper’

* * *
China and the U.S. moved to ease trade tensions early Monday, agreeing to a temporary 90-day reduction in reciprocal tariffs on each other’s goods, according to a joint statement released by both governments on X. The accord, viewed as a breakthrough in a multi-month trade war between the world’s two largest economies, helped spark a rally in global markets: S&P 500 futures rose 3%, while Nasdaq futures gained 4%. European markets also advanced, and the U.S. dollar strengthened. U.S. government bonds sold as investors rotated back into equities and other risk-sensitive assets. The joint statement said that the U.S. will reduce levies on most Chinese imports from 145% to 30% by Wednesday. Here’s a summary of the U.S. actions:

The United States will remove the additional tariffs it imposed on China on April 8 and April 9, 2025, but will retain all duties imposed on China prior to April 2, 2025, including Section 301 tariffs, Section 232 tariffs, tariffs imposed in response to the fentanyl national emergency invoked pursuant to the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, and Most Favored Nation tariffs.
• The United States will suspend its 34% reciprocal tariff imposed on April 2, 2025 for 90 days, but retain a 10% tariff during the period of the pause.
• The 10% tariff continues to set a fair baseline that encourages domestic production, strengthens our supply chains and ensures that American trade policy supports American workers first, instead of undercutting them.
• By imposing reciprocal tariffs, President Trump is ensuring our trade policy works for the American economy, addresses our national emergency brought on by our growing and persistent trade deficit, and levels the playing field for American workers and producers.
• Unlike previous administrations, President Trump took a tough, uncompromising stance on China to protect American interests and stop unfair trade practices.

The breakthrough in the talks also led to China reducing its 125% tariff on U.S. goods to 10%. Here’s a summary of the Chinese actions: China will remove the retaliatory tariffs it announced since April 4, 2025, and will also suspend or remove the non-tariff countermeasures taken against the United States since April 2, 2025.
• China will also suspend its initial 34% tariff on the United States it announced on April 4, 2025 for 90 days, but will retain a 10% tariff during the period of the pause. The joint statement indicated that Monday’s agreement would pave the way for further negotiations between senior officials. On the U.S. side, talks are being led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, while Vice Premier He Lifeng will represent China…

After taking the aforementioned actions, the Parties will establish a mechanism to continue discussions about economic and trade relations. The representative from the Chinese side for these discussions will be He Lifeng, Vice Premier of the State Council, and the representatives from the U.S. side will be Scott Bessent, Secretary of the Treasury, and Jamieson Greer, United States Trade Representative. These discussions may be conducted alternately in China and the United States, or a third country upon agreement of the Parties. As required, the two sides may conduct working-level consultations on relevant economic and trade issues.

The White House wrote on X that these trade talks will address America’s trade imbalances: The U.S. goods trade deficit with China was $295.4 billion in 2024—the largest with any trading partner. Today’s agreement works toward addressing these imbalances to deliver real, lasting benefits to American workers, famers, and businesses. The talks also addressed the ongoing fentanyl crisis. The United States and China will take aggressive actions to stem the flow of fentanyl and other precursors from China to illicit drug producers in North America.

Shortly after the joint statement was released, Bessent, who led the American delegation at the talks, told reporters in Geneva that both sides have “substantially moved down the tariff levels” and “neither side wants a decoupling.” “We had a very robust and productive discussion on steps forward on fentanyl,” Bessent added, pointing out that those talks might lead to “purchasing agreements” by China. Commenting on markets, Benedicte Lowe, an equity and derivatives strategist at BNP Paribas Markets 360, told Bloomberg TV that “deescalation was much better than expected by the market” and “for the next couple of days I would expect a bullish environment in the global equity market.”

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“Everything that is weak in China comes from previous years of government policies aimed at boosting economic growth by building stuff and hoping it would sell at some point..”

China’s Keynesian Model Is Crumbling. It Needs a Trade Deal, Fast. (Lacalle)

In the past decade, the Chinese economy has expanded its central-planned neo-Keynesian model that simply cannot survive without a trade deal. The Chinese manufacturing sector has followed a running-to-stand-still strategy that simply cannot subsist without the enormous trade surplus with the United States. The Chinese manufacturing sector overcapacity is not an anecdote. It is the norm. China produces 30% of the world’s manufacturing goods but consumes less than 18%, according to CKGSB. Additionally, China’s industrial capacity utilization rate fell to 74.1% in the first quarter of 2025. China’s Keynesian central planning model aims to maximise employment and maintain strong economic growth, despite financial constraints and excessive indebtedness. Thus, it needs to sell its excess production to avoid a massive problem of working capital.

Even the government has recognised the problem in a roundabout way, noting that “involution”-style competition (wasteful competition) is a major focus for the 2025 economic policy, and steps are being taken to reduce unnecessary investments and control growth in some industries. However, overcapacity in China is not a fatality; it was created by political design, with local and national authorities trying to boost GDP at any cost. The model is aimed at keeping full employment and economic growth even with economic returns below the cost of capital, and it almost works if the excess capacity can be sold globally, receiving reserve currency and maintaining low costs by passing the working capital cost to global consumers and maintaining low production expenditure with currency controls and exchange rate fixing.

However, the combination of rising debt, a constantly weakening currency, and the escalating bankruptcy and working capital issues could potentially bring this model to a collapse, even in the absence of an official recession. China has learnt that it cannot endure a trade war and cannot substitute the US consumer, the richest and largest market, with European or Latin American consumers. Therefore, it needs a trade deal quickly before the domino of bankruptcies that has plagued the Chinese economy since 2021 erupts into a full-blown financial crisis. China is officially in deflation for the third consecutive month in April. Business insolvencies are projected to increase by 7% in 2025 and by 10% in 2026, according to Allianz, even as the government implements additional fiscal stimulus.

Small and medium-sized enterprises, particularly exporters, are facing mounting bankruptcies due to declining cash flow and the elimination of US tariff exemptions. Job losses are rising in export-dependent regions, and the urban unemployment rate is expected to average 5.7% in 2025, above the official target, according to CNBC. The official NBS Manufacturing PMI fell sharply to 49.0 in April 2025, the steepest decline since December 2023, reflecting a drop in output, new orders, and employment, with foreign orders shrinking to their lowest in at least eleven months. The collapse of the real estate sector, which once accounted for up to 30% of GDP, has weakened banks, reduced household wealth, and led to a negative wealth effect, further depressing consumption and credit demand.

China’s economic strengths are well known, but the weaknesses are too important to ignore. The situation serves as a reminder that central planning never works. Everything that is weak in China comes from previous years of government policies aimed at boosting economic growth by building stuff and hoping it would sell at some point. Furthermore, rising bankruptcies, an imploding property market, and mounting local government debt strain the financial system just as non-performing loans from the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) soar. Several BRI countries have defaulted on their debts or required IMF bailouts, including Sri Lanka, Zambia, Ghana, and Pakistan, while the BRI generated $385 billion in off-the-books debt.

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X-thread. Who won? The comments say China.

Major Breakthroughs in US-China Trade Negotiations (Mehta)

The US-China trade standoff just ended with a historic 90-day agreement.

Chinese officials made THREE major concessions the media isn’t reporting. After weeks of escalating tariffs that reached a staggering 125% on both sides, US and Chinese negotiators met in Geneva this weekend. The result? A breakthrough 90-day agreement. But there’s more to this story than what’s being reported. Let’s rewind to understand why this matters. On April 2nd, Trump imposed “reciprocal tariffs” under his America First policy. China was assigned a 34% rate. Unlike other countries, China chose to fight back. That’s when things escalated dramatically.

China didn’t just add tariffs. They imposed severe non-tariff measures that effectively created a trade embargo, according to US officials. The economic equivalent of a declaration of war. Both sides kept raising tariffs until they hit a crippling 125%, creating an unsustainable situation that threatened global trade. That’s when something unexpected happened.

Concession #1: China agreed to reduce tariffs by 115%, bringing them down to just 10%. This matches the exact reduction the US offered, creating parity for the first time in this trade battle. But that’s just the beginning.

Concession #2: China removed ALL counter-measures. Beyond tariffs, China had imposed severe non-tariff barriers. Officials said these effectively created a trade embargo against US goods. They’ve now agreed to remove ALL of these barriers.

Concession #3 is perhaps the most surprising. China sent their deputy minister for public safety to address the fentanyl crisis. US officials called this an “upside surprise” – completely unexpected at a trade meeting. This isn’t just about lower prices on Chinese goods. It’s about a fundamental shift in the US-China relationship. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent revealed they’re managing a trade queue with 75+ countries bringing “their best offers” after seeing China’s concessions. The bigger story? This isn’t a one-off deal. US officials established a “mechanism” for ongoing negotiations – something they claim was “neglected” before. Communication channels had “atrophied” until now. What happens in the next 90 days is critical.

Negotiations will focus on rebalancing trade and addressing the $1.2 trillion deficit in goods. That deficit grew 42% in recent years. Now it’s being tackled head-on. Behind the scenes, a strategic vision is unfolding. The US aims to rebuild key manufacturing in medicine, semiconductors, and steel. Yet both sides agreed: “neither side wants a decoupling.” They want rebalancing, not separation. Both countries need a reset. One official explained: “China is unbalanced in terms of overproduction in manufacturing.” The US lost precision manufacturing.Together, they could find a new equilibrium.

America’s goals are clear:
• Restore critical manufacturing
• Maintain healthy trade flows
• Command respect in negotiations
• Create a model for future deals

This agreement sets the blueprint. The ultimate test will come during these 90 days. Will China follow through? Will concrete purchase agreements materialize to reduce the trade deficit? Let me know what you think in the comments. The rules of global trade are being rewritten, and this is just the beginning.

Read more …

“Tomorrow Europe might no longer be European, and even black”. Gaddafi saw it coming from miles away. And Hillary cackled.

Gaddafi Warned Them. Now The EU Is Living Out His Grim Prophecy (RT)

The migration crisis on Europe’s southern borders has been brewing for decades. Today, it has reached a breaking point. In a bid to halt the flow of refugees, the EU is increasingly shifting responsibility to third countries – primarily African states that often face instability themselves. Libya is the most striking example of what these policies have led to. Today, around 4 million African migrants live there without legal status – more than half of the country’s official population of 7.5 million. Left in chaos after Western intervention, Libya has become a springboard for millions seeking to reach the shores of Europe. And it’s not just Libya – in recent years, the European Union has been forging a web of agreements with African and Middle Eastern countries, aiming to keep migrants farther from its borders through a combination of financial incentives and political pressure.

The critical situation in Libya is a direct consequence of Europe’s longstanding attempts to contain migration. According to the European Commission, as of 2023, the EU’s total population was 448.8 million, with 27.3 million non-EU citizens and 42.4 million people born outside the bloc. Despite a recent decline in illegal border crossings, the problem remains acute. Frontex, the European Border and Coast Guard Agency, reported that in January–February 2025, the number of illegal crossings dropped by 25%, to around 25,000. The main routes now run through West Africa and the Central Mediterranean, with migrants predominantly hailing from Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Mali, and other countries. The threat of uncontrolled migration has loomed over Europe for years. It’s worth recalling the warnings of the late Libyan leader, Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, who cautioned during a meeting with Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi in 2010:

“Tomorrow Europe might no longer be European, and even black, as there are millions who want to come in.” In 2011, just months before his death, Gaddafi told Tony Blair that his removal would plunge Libya into chaos, empower terrorist groups, and trigger new waves of migration to Europe. These predictions came true: after the civil war and NATO’s intervention, Libya fell into anarchy and became one of the main transit hubs for refugees. According to Libya’s Ministry of Internal Affairs, over 4 million foreigners are currently in Libya, most of them undocumented. Many are held in detention centers, which, amid lawlessness, rampant drug trafficking and armed clashes, have become little more than prisons. International organizations have documented slave markets and abductions of migrants for forced labor or ransom.

Those who fail to reach Europe face two options: deportation or death in the Mediterranean. UNICEF reports that more than 2,200 people died or went missing in the Mediterranean in 2024, including about 1,700 along the central route. Children and teenagers accounted for roughly one-fifth of all casualties. At a March 17 meeting at the Ministry of Interior of the Government of National Unity (GNU) in Tripoli, Minister Emad Al-Trabelsi stated that Libya could not cope alone, given its internal security and economic problems. In the presence of EU diplomats, African Union officials and representatives from the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), he called on Western countries to help strengthen Libya’s southern borders, supply modern equipment for controlling migration, and provide broader support to the country.

Italy, one of the first destinations for many migrants, is actively seeking to change the situation. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni proposed the Mattei Plan – a multibillion-euro initiative to invest in energy, agriculture, water supply, healthcare and education in African countries. Named after Eni founder Enrico Mattei, the plan is based on a simple idea: fostering economic development in Africa to reduce incentives for migration. At the same time, Italy is not shying away from another tool – “offshoring” migrants, meaning relocating them to third countries. Australia pioneered this model, sending asylum seekers to the island of Nauru since 2012. European countries are now adopting similar methods. In Europe, Albania may become a processing hub for migrants, thanks in part to Italian efforts. Under Meloni’s ambitious plan, two migrant screening centers are to be opened in Albania, a non-EU member state, but operated under Rome’s authority. The goal is to keep asylum seekers out of both Italy and the EU.

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Brussels is full of such tragedies. Because no democracy.

“Euro-Nazism is being reborn before our eyes,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in response to Kallas’ threats..”

Kallas A ‘Tragedy’ For EU – MEP (RT)

Senior EU officials, such as foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, represent a “tragedy” for the bloc, Slovak MEP Lubos Blaha has told RT. Blaha also accused top officials in Brussels of supporting fascism. The MEP’s remarks come after Brussels criticized Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico’s attendance at Russia’s May 9 Victory Day celebrations in Moscow last week. Kallas warned EU officials and candidate countries against taking part in the event, urging them to travel to Kiev instead. Other EU officials warned that candidate states such as Serbia would have their status renewed if their leaders attended the celebrations in Russia. According to Blaha, the criticism directed at Fico and other leaders, such as Serbia’s Aleksandar Vucic, wasn’t genuinely about the conflict in Ukraine. “The real truth is different. The real truth is that their anti-fascism is pretended,” he said.

Blaha used the example of this year’s ceremony in the European Parliament commemorating the defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II, describing it as somber. “It was like a funeral. Everyone was so sad, and in the end, Beethoven was playing,” Blaha said, noting that the same music was used by Germany broadcasts after the Battle of Stalingrad. “This is the same tradition.” “If the European Union is governed by people like Kaja Kallas, then it’s a tragedy,” he added. Kallas, who previously served as the prime minister of Estonia, has repeatedly spoken out harshly against Russia and has labeled Moscow as the EU’s primary adversary, while advocating for increased militarization of the European bloc. Her warnings to EU member states and candidate countries about attending the Moscow Victory Day celebrations were met with condemnation from Russian officials, who labeled her threats as “blackmail.”

“Euro-Nazism is being reborn before our eyes,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in response to Kallas’ threats. “This is how the fascists 80 years ago forced those they considered ‘second-class people’ to renounce their homeland, ethnicity, and faith,” she wrote on Telegram. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has also criticized Kallas as a “rabid Russophobe,” and recently claimed that “manifestations of neo-Nazism in Europe” are “significant,” and called for extensive efforts to combat the trend. Echoing these sentiments, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev recently claimed that neo-Nazism is on the rise in Europe. He called for a comprehensive “de-Nazification” effort not just in Ukraine, but across the entire continent.

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“..Lavrov has stated that the EU is “becoming militarized at a record pace,” adding that there is now “very little difference” between the EU and NATO.”

Ukraine’s EU Entry Would Drag Bloc Into War – Orban (RT)

Admitting Ukraine into the EU would only prolong the hostilities between Moscow and Kiev and risk dragging the bloc into the conflict, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has warned. Ukraine, which has made EU membership a national priority, formally applied to join the bloc in February 2022, days after the escalation of the conflict with Russia. Hungary has repeatedly pushed back against the EU’s goal of admitting Ukraine by 2030 – a target recently reiterated by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. On Monday, Orban reiterated Budapest’s opposition to accession, calling it a decision that could shape the bloc’s future for the worse. “As a country neighboring Ukraine, we believe that if Ukraine is admitted to the European Union, it will mean war,” Orban told the conference of EU parliamentary speakers in Budapest. The EU has never accepted a country at war – and for “good reason,” he added.

The Hungarian leader also expressed regret over the commitment of some EU leaders to continued military aid for Kiev. “We have a different view. We think the longer the war lasts, the more lives will be lost and the worse the situation will become on the battlefield,” Orban said. Ukraine still faces major hurdles on its path to joining the bloc, with full membership requiring unanimous EU approval and sweeping reforms, including anti-corruption efforts, improved governance, and legal alignment with EU standards. Orban has long opposed Ukraine’s integration into Western institutions, including NATO, arguing that its accession could escalate tensions with Russia. He suggested that the country should instead remain a “buffer” between Russia and the West.

While Russia has consistently rejected the idea of Ukraine joining NATO, its position on EU accession has been more restrained. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said Ukraine has the “sovereign right” to join the bloc, provided that it remains a matter of economic integration and not military alignment. However, Russian officials have warned that the line between civilian and military in the EU is becoming blurred. Peskov has accused the bloc of actively working to prolong the Ukraine conflict by repeatedly expressing its intention to support Kiev in its desire to “continue the war.” He has also criticized Brussels for undermining peace efforts by portraying Russia as the bloc’s primary adversary. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has stated that the EU is “becoming militarized at a record pace,” adding that there is now “very little difference” between the EU and NATO.

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Better make that a very sharp turn.

Multiculturalism Fail: Britain Makes a U-Turn on Immigration (Margolis)

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is now openly calling for a significant reduction in immigration, which marks a complete reversal from Labour’s previous open-borders agenda. In his latest remarks, Starmer didn’t just echo familiar concerns about wages or public services. He framed the immigration issue as a threat to national cohesion and, in doing so, acknowledged what many British citizens have been warning about for years. “Nations depend on rules, fair rules,” Starmer said. “Sometimes they’re written down; often they’re not. But either way, they give shape to our values, guide us towards our rights, of course, but also our responsibilities, the obligations we owe to each other.” This newfound focus on national responsibility is a remarkable about-face for a party that spent years dismissing immigration concerns as xenophobic.

But the Prime Minister went further, saying that without clear rules, the UK risks becoming “an island of strangers, not a nation that walks forward together.” Starmer, once a staunch advocate for multiculturalism, now concedes that the immigration system has been exploited at the expense of national identity. “When you have an immigration system that seems almost designed to permit abuse, that encourages some businesses to bring in lower paid workers rather than invest in our young people,” he said, “or simply one that is sold by politicians to the British people on an entirely false premise, then you’re not championing growth, you’re not championing justice.” “You’re actually contributing to the forces that are slowly pulling our country apart,” Starmer admitted.

But it’s more than just exploitation of cheap labor. The broader concern — unspoken in Starmer’s remarks but unmistakably present — is that an influx of Islamic migrants, many of whom openly reject Western values, has plagued the UK. It’s caused a slew of problems that politicians and the media have typically downplayed. In many cities, integration has failed, creating cultural clashes and deepening social divisions. Urban neighborhoods with large immigrant populations are experiencing increased tension, with growing concerns over crime, strained public services, and economic burdens. In short, the consequences of unchecked migration have been devastating, not just to public safety but also to social cohesion.

“That’s why I told the Labour Party conference taking back control is a Labour argument,” Starmer continued. “And why, most importantly of all, inward migration is already falling with this government.” It’s the clearest indication yet that Labour knows — even if it won’t publicly admit — it can no longer ignore reality. The cultural fractures, the rise in antisemitism, the radicalization concerns, and the strain on law enforcement have all added up. The question now is whether voters will buy Labour’s rebrand or see it as too little, too late. Either way, the Prime Minister’s speech confirms what critics have said all along: mass migration, particularly from hostile Islamic cultures, was never about diversity. It was about dismantling the nation. And now, even Starmer is admitting the damage.

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Much closer to what the countries and people have in common: the respectful preservation of what makes them different from each other. Much better than EU.

Le Pen Pines For Unified Nationalist Front In European Parliament (RMX)

Marine Le Pen used a visit to Rome on Saturday to denounce what she called a growing “democratic scandal” within the European Union, following her recent conviction that has barred her from running in France’s next presidential election. Speaking alongside Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini, the French nationalist leader warned that her case was part of a wider pattern of political suppression aimed at silencing sovereignist movements across Europe. “I have an African friend who told me that there are countries where there are no elections, and countries where candidates are prevented from running,” Le Pen said in an interview with Corriere Della Sera during the visit. “I believe that my conviction is really a democratic scandal: I was prevented from running for election, despite having appealed and am therefore still presumed innocent.”

Le Pen drew a direct comparison between her own legal troubles and what she described as systematic efforts by the European establishment to neutralize opposition voices. “I can’t help but think of what happened to Salvini, what happened in Romania with Calin Georgescu, and what the European Union wants to do with Orbán,” she said. “The EU does not like defeats, but it is ready to go against the people to crush those who bother it.” Her remarks came during a joint appearance with Salvini at the League’s School of Political Formation following a religious observance in honor of Pope Leo XIV. The two leaders, longtime allies in the European nationalist movement, presented a united front against what they view as Brussels’ overreach and ideological rigidity. “His political ideas are practically the same as mine,” Le Pen said of Salvini. “And I want to add that he is a brave, faithful man with great willpower. He really is a friend.”

Le Pen also used her Rome trip to criticize ongoing EU defense integration efforts, particularly the Readiness 2030 initiative, which she claimed is another vehicle for centralizing power in Brussels. “Whenever there is a crisis, the EU takes advantage to push integrated policies that override national sovereignty,” she said. “Today, it does so with Ukraine and tries to build a European army. It does so in an absolutely cynical way, to impose its ideological agenda on the European people.”With French President Emmanuel Macron and other EU leaders visiting Kyiv for meetings with his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, and the so-called “Coalition of the Willing,” Le Pen questioned the coalition’s true aim. “Does it want to reach an agreement for peace, or will it end up fomenting war?” she asked.

“Macron has put himself in the shoes of the warrior. France should do the opposite: devote all its efforts to acting as a mediator in the direction of peace.” Though Patriots for Europe, the nationalist parliamentary group Le Pen co-founded, is now the third-largest bloc in the European Parliament, she acknowledged that uniting with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) could elevate their influence further. “I do not lose hope that the sovereigntists can evolve into a single formation,” she said. “After all, we already vote together on many amendments. Certainly, there is more that unites us than separates us.”

On Meloni herself, Le Pen insisted she has “an important diplomatic role, and that’s no surprise. We have differences — especially her support for the election of Ursula von der Leyen — but she’s achieved results, both externally and for Italy’s economy.” Despite tensions between the French and Italian governments, Le Pen advocated for a revival of the bilateral relationship. “France and Italy are the two most similar countries in Europe,” she said. “I support a true Renaissance in relations between them.” In contrast, she dismissed the longstanding Franco-German axis. “That axis is a choice of the current French government,” she said. “Germany has always pursued its own policies. I believe Europe needs rules that apply equally to all.”

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“most favored nation” (MFN)

“..I will be signing one of the most consequential Executive Orders in our Country’s history..”

Trump Announces EO to Lower Prescription Drug Prices through MFN Policy (CTH)

CTH suspected we were going to see this…. and it might just work. President Trump has announced via Truth Social that he will sign an executive order to structurally create a “most favored nation” (MFN) policy toward USA drug manufacturing prices. Americans must receive a matching price to the lowest cost sold. President Trump – “For many years the World has wondered why Prescription Drugs and Pharmaceuticals in the United States of America were SO MUCH HIGHER IN PRICE THAN THEY WERE IN ANY OTHER NATION, SOMETIMES BEING FIVE TO TEN TIMES MORE EXPENSIVE THAN THE SAME DRUG, MANUFACTURED IN THE EXACT SAME LABORATORY OR PLANT, BY THE SAME COMPANY??? It was always difficult to explain and very embarrassing because, in fact, there was no correct or rightful answer.

The Pharmaceutical/Drug Companies would say, for years, that it was Research and Development Costs, and that all of these costs were, and would be, for no reason whatsoever, borne by the “suckers” of America, ALONE. Campaign Contributions can do wonders, but not with me, and not with the Republican Party. We are going to do the right thing, something that the Democrats have fought for many years. Therefore, I am pleased to announce that Tomorrow morning, in the White House, at 9:00 A.M., I will be signing one of the most consequential Executive Orders in our Country’s history. Prescription Drug and Pharmaceutical prices will be REDUCED, almost immediately, by 30% to 80%. They will rise throughout the World in order to equalize and, for the first time in many years, bring FAIRNESS TO AMERICA!

I will be instituting a MOST FAVORED NATION’S POLICY whereby the United States will pay the same price as the Nation that pays the lowest price anywhere in the World. Our Country will finally be treated fairly, and our citizens Healthcare Costs will be reduced by numbers never even thought of before. Additionally, on top of everything else, the United States will save TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS. Thank you for your attention to this matter. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!” [source]

***
[..] President Trump is on the cusp of announcing a big change in tariffs against foreign pharmaceutical companies in an effort to get the manufacturing of medicines brought back to the USA. Details are soon to surface. In a proactive move, the European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations (EFPIA), went to the European Commission (EC) in April to hold talks with Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, calling for radical change and holding the threat of an exodus to the U.S. over the EC president’s head.

PRESS RELEASE – “Today, CEOs of the research-based pharmaceutical industry issued a stark warning to President von der Leyen that unless Europe delivers rapid, radical policy change then pharmaceutical research, development and manufacturing is increasingly likely to be directed towards the US.

A survey of EFPIA member companies conducted last week – to which 18 international large and medium-sized innovative companies responded – identified as much as 85% of capital expenditure investments (approximately €50.6 billion) and as much as 50% of R&D expenditure (approximately €52.6 billion) potentially at risk. This is out of a current combined total of €164.8 billion in investments planned for the period 2025-2029 in the EU-27 territory. Over the next three months, companies that responded estimate that a total of €16.5 billion i.e. 10% of the total investment plans is at risk.The US now leads Europe on every investor metric from availability of capital, intellectual property, speed of approval to rewards for innovation. In addition to the uncertainty created by the threat of tariffs, there is little incentive to invest in the EU and significant drivers to relocate to the US. (read more)”

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“Gasoline, Energy, Groceries, and all other costs, DOWN. NO INFLATION!!! LOVE, DJT.”

How Trump’s Drug Price Executive Order Will Affect Medicare (DS)

President Donald Trump will take action on Medicare if pharmaceutical companies don’t lower prices across markets in response to his Monday executive order to slash prescription drug costs. Trump signed an executive order Monday morning instituting a “most favored nation” policy under which Americans will pay “the same price as the Nation that pays the lowest price anywhere in the World.” “DRUG PRICES TO BE CUT BY 59%, PLUS!” Trump wrote on Truth Social Monday morning. “Gasoline, Energy, Groceries, and all other costs, DOWN. NO INFLATION!!! LOVE, DJT.” Trump signed a similar executive order in 2020 that called for linking drug prices under both Parts B and D to those paid by selected foreign governments.

Medicare Part B covers doctor-administered medications. Medicare Part D covers prescription medicines that senior beneficiaries typically pick up at neighborhood pharmacies. The government provides income-related subsidies to seniors, who shop for the private drug coverage that best meets their own needs. That 2020 order resulted in a rule that was limited to Medicare Part B, but the executive order signed this morning is broader, according to a White House Official. The Daily Signal asked the White House on a background call for reporters how the order would affect Medicare Part D. Medicare is where the United States government spends the most money directly on pharmaceuticals, a White House official said.

“We will be taking action in the Medicare program if the pharmaceutical companies do not come to the table and lower their prices across markets,” the White House official told The Daily Signal. “That’s obviously one of our biggest programs, and where Medicare Part B has been successful in incentivizing generic utilization, where, in many places, for 90% of prescriptions, we get very low prices.” While 90% of prescriptions are generic, meaning developed to be the same as a medicine that has already been authorized, the expenditure on the remaining 10% of prescriptions is “enormous” and one of the main places the U.S. is getting “ripped off,” according to the White House official. The official said future action on the Medicare program will be a key focus of the Trump administration.

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Trump has some kind of fall-out with Bibi. But that doesn’t mean he turns his back on AIPAC or the entire Israel lobby. Let’s wait and see. He’s in the Gulf this week. The deals made there will give some things away. $1 triilion for the US while Bibi finishes off Gaza? Don’t think so.

Growing Strain in the Trump-Netanyahu Relationship Worsens (Devlin)

American negotiators sidelined Israel in securing the release of the last living American hostage held by Hamas in Gaza in yet another sign of tension between President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Over the weekend, President Donald Trump’s administration brokered a deal for the emancipation of Edan Alexander, a 21-year-old dual American-Israeli national, with the help of Qatari and Egyptian mediators. Israel, meanwhile, was sidelined and learned of the deal only Sunday night. Unlike previous hostage exchanges, Alexander’s release did not accompany or come under the framework of a broader ceasefire agreement. Rather, Netanyahu is gearing up to expand Israel’s operations in Gaza after receiving approval from Israel’s security cabinet last week. Trump took to Truth Social on Sunday evening to announce the deal that ultimately secured Alexander’s release.

“I am happy to announce that Edan Alexander, an American citizen who has been held hostage since October 2023, is coming home to his family,” the president wrote. “I am grateful to all those involved in making this monumental news happen. This was a step taken in good faith towards the United States and the efforts of the mediators—Qatar and Egypt—to put an end to this very brutal war and return ALL living hostages and remains to their loved ones. Hopefully this is the first of those final steps necessary to end this brutal conflict. I look very much forward to that day of celebration!” Netanyahu, meanwhile, credited Alexander’s release to not only Trump’s diplomacy but also to “the military pressure of [Israeli Defense Forces] soldiers in the Gaza Strip.”

An unnamed Hamas official told NPR that the United States made certain guarantees to secure Alexander’s release. NPR added that, while the Hamas official did not go into detail, the official hinted that the U.S. would help secure the release of some Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli captivity, facilitate the delivery of some aid into Gaza, and negotiate a broader end to the war. Following Alexander’s release, Hamas published a statement saying, “The Al-Qassam Brigades have just released the Israeli soldier holding American citizenship, Edan Alexander, following communications with the U.S. administration. This comes as part of the mediators’ efforts to reach a ceasefire, open the border crossings, and allow the entry of aid and relief for our people in the Gaza Strip.” “The ball is now in the American and Israeli court. We gave the Americans what they asked for. They need to get the other side to give things too,” the Hamas official told NPR.

Netanyahu contradicted the Hamas official, claiming Alexander was released “without anything in return.” An Israeli Defense Forces unit received Alexander from Hamas on Monday and took the 21-year-old to a facility in Re’im for a medical and psychological evaluation. Alexander, a soldier for the Israeli Army, was captured by Hamas at his military post on the morning of Oct. 7, 2023. The New Jersey native moved to Israel after high school to serve in the Israeli military. Trump has changed America’s approach to pursuing a Middle Eastern peace agreement, opting to negotiate directly with Hamas and other belligerents in the Israel-Gaza conflict without Israel present.

Last week, American negotiators brokered a deal with Houthi militants in Yemen. The U.S. will end missile strikes in Yemen as long as the Houthis end strikes on American vessels in the Red Sea. This deal apparently surprised Netanyahu and other Israeli officials, and Netanyahu posted a video statement on X that said, “Israel will defend itself by itself. If others would join us, our American friends, very well. If they don’t, we will defend ourselves.” Trump’s decision to cut Israel out of the negotiations with the Houthis represents a response to Israel’s actions following the breakdown of the ceasefire brokered by Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, just prior to Trump entering office.

That ceasefire, which would have continued to facilitate the return of hostages on both sides, started to falter in March. Israel accused Hamas of returning the wrong hostage remains, and Hamas made grotesque public showings of the hostage returns. Hamas, meanwhile, accused Israel of delaying the release of Palestinian prisoners and blocking aid headed for Gaza. The ceasefire evaporated on March 18 after Israel launched a large-scale aerial attack, which Israel justified by claiming Hamas militants were preparing for another attack. After the U.S. negotiated Alexander’s release, Netanyahu met with Witkoff and U.S. Ambassador Mike Huckabee in Jerusalem to discuss a broader hostage deal and an end to hostilities.

The Israeli government said hostilities will not end during future negotiations: “The Prime Minister made clear that negotiations will take place only under fire.” Trump departs from Washington on Monday for the Middle East, the first major international trip of his second term. The president will visit Riyadh, Doha, and Abu Dhabi—crucial players in ongoing Middle Eastern diplomacy—but not Jerusalem. Is it a snub to Netanyahu, or simply because Netanyahu has already visited Trump at the White House twice already this year? Regardless, the apparent tensions between Trump and Netanyahu are unlikely to be alleviated anytime soon. Hamas still has 20 living and an estimated 40 dead hostages, which the terror group continues to hold as leverage for negotiating the end of the war, but Israel shows no signs of slowing down.

https://twitter.com/AdameMedia/status/1921675932491735245

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“Those who perpetrated the greatest ruse in American presidential history by staging the Biden presidency will never tell us what their ultimate agenda was” — Victor Davis Hanson

MAHA Hugger Mugger (James Howard Kunstler)

[..] sooner or later, Bobby Kennedy, Jr., will have to take some kind of stand on the Covid vaccines, namely stopping the shots altogether. Whatever you think of the childhood vaccine schedule — a red-hot issue these days — it seems quite insane that the Covid mRNA vaccine is still included on it. It is still officially recommended by the CDC. Among the “much more” effects of the shots is damage to human fertility. You must ask: by giving these shots to kids as young as six-months, are we setting up a nation that won’t be able to have children? Pretty spooky.

So, the new nominee for Surgeon General is one Casey Means of the brother / sister team, Calley and Casey Means, known primarily as food safety advocate sidekicks to Bobby Kennedy. The Meanses were already under some suspicion for rising to rapidly into prominence from out of nowhere since the summer of 2024 when Mr. Kennedy began to swing over to the Trump campaign. They were suspected and criticized as the shills for some sort of sinister alliance between Silicon Valley, Big Pharma, and the US intel blob. The Meanses have adroitly avoided taking a position on the Covid vaccines. Hmmmm. . . . That’s the chatter, anyway — whether there’s any truth to it, we will have to stand-by to discover.

You’d have to ask yourself whether Mr. Kennedy would ally himself with people of supposedly sketchy character. Is he being used or played? Or maybe, it’s just not so. The nomination of Casey Means sent out shock-waves through MAGA and MAHA. Her credentials seemed a little sketchy like Janette Nesheiwat’s before her. Ms. Means dropped out of her five-year medical residency in Oregon a few months before completing it, apparently due to disillusionment with conventional medicine. She does not have an active medical license, supposedly required to serve as Surgeon General.

Instead, she transitioned into what is loosely called functional medicine, which rejects the oppressive “standards of practice” dictated by insurance companies and reliance on pharma products to alleviate symptoms rather than treat the causes of disease. Ms. Means also became a medical entrepreneur, starting Levels, a glucose-monitoring tech company, and is an Instagram “wellness influencer” with 750,000 followers. Given the gross racketeering aspects of conventional medicine and its failure to deal with the shocking rise in chronic disease, you might argue that Ms. Means made the right career moves, weird as they might seem superficially.

It’s pretty much a miracle that RFK, Jr., managed to land safely as Secretary of HHS and that he was able to enlist “medical freedom” advocates Jay Bhattacharya to run the National Institutes for Health and Marty Makary to run the Federal Drug Administration. This represents a stupendous turnaround in government policy. It’s also plausible that this new public health team has been preoccupied with personnel and administrative re-org in the first months of Trump 2.0. They’ve begun to nibble around the edges of the national health crisis, such as banning toxic food coloring.

They have yet to face the big, nasty legal questions such as revoking Pharma’s liability shield against lawsuits for its defective products, ending TV advertising of Pharma products — which is just an extortion racket for managing cable news content to protect Pharma — fully confronting the autism calamity and its connection to childhood vaccines, and, of course, pulling the Covid shots.

There is also chatter that RFK, Jr., is “managed” by hidden persons or forces. One not-so-hidden character in that psychodrama is Senator Bill Cassidy (R-LA). Sen. Cassidy, a medical doctor, chairs the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP) Committee that ran Mr. Kennedy over-the-coals in his confirmation hearing. Political pressure caused Sen. Cassidy to cave and vote “yes” for RFK,Jr., then. Louisiana has since changed its election rules so that Democrats can no longer vote in the GOP primary, and Cassidy is vulnerable. His base is restless. He voted to impeach Mr. Trump in January 2021 over the Capitol J-6 riot.

So, the chatter says that Mr. Kennedy made a deal with Sen. Cassidy to avoid taking certain actions — like, anything that might hurt Pharma and its profit-stream — or else Mr. Kennedy would be dragged back in front of the HELP Committee and raked over the coals again. If that were to happen, I suspect Mr. Kennedy would handle himself very capably in any public hearing. He has always been in command of the facts. As head of HHS, he has had access to a deep trove of information that he had no access to previously. He must know by now exactly what sort of mischief has been perpetrated in US public health over the decades and will not be shy about disclosing it publicly. You should also not be surprised if Mr. Kennedy begins issuing criminal referrals before much longer.

As for Casey Means. . . give her a chance to demonstrate that she is on the right side of MAHA and willing to fight in what has become a biomedical war on the American public.

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GOP killed his DC US Attorney nomination, and now he gets a better job.

“As an originator of serious weaponization policy development on the campaign, Ed has landed exactly where he belongs..”

Trump’s Weaponization Czar Ed Martin: ‘It Worked Out Great’ (NYP)

Newly minted weaponization czar Ed Martin is gearing up to take on a myriad of bad actors who the Trump administration says weaponized government powers to punish conservatives and MAGA supporters over recent years. Martin’s list of potential targets is very wide, including propagators of Russiagate, prosecutors in Capitol riot cases, individuals who allegedly helped cover up COVID-19 origins and even international organizations that have censored Americans.“The truth is important, and we need it,” Martin told The Post. “Then, after the truth is known, we need to hold those accountable that did the wrongdoing, and we need to also help those who are victims. We have both of those obligations.”

For years, Martin, formerly the Missouri Republican Party chairman, has helped research government weaponization and crafted strategies to combat it. During the 2024 campaign, he helped craft language in the 2024 GOP platform calling on the party to “stop woke and weaponized government.” He’s also already started going after some key targets. While serving as interim US attorney for the District of Columbia, a position that is set to expire for him on May 20, he sent out investigatory letters to at least four key officials who were heavily involved with the Russia collusion investigation. Additionally, Martin demoted at least half a dozen prosecutors who were involved with pursuing the Capitol riot cases at the US Attorney’s Office for the District of Columbia.

Now that he is set to help the Justice Department’s Weaponization Working Group, he intends to continue those investigations and expand further. He is also looking to probe foreign censorship of Americans and the “appearance of corruption in some of the USAID grants. “There may be no limit to the targets, since there was no limit to the weaponization,” Martin told The Post. To Martin, helping victims of government weaponization restore their reputations and get their lives back on track is a top priority as he heads into his new role as leader of the working group. “We want to stop the wrongdoing if government’s weaponized,” Martin explained. “We want to hold them accountable. But we also want to help people to get back on their feet and to be able to do things.”

The DOJ’s Weaponization Working Group was established in February by Attorney General Pam Bondi in response to an executive order from Trump to root out remnants of weaponization and hold key perpetrators accountable. Bondi called on the group to investigate actions by former special counsel Jack Smith’s team, federal assistance with “weaponization” done by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg and New York Attorney General Letitia James, tactics used against prosecution of Capitol rioters, the infamous FBI Catholic targeting memo, retaliation against whistleblowers and more. Martin was an early member of the group, and now, as its leader, he will report to Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche.

Trump named him to the weaponization czar role last week after his bid to get confirmed by the Senate to become a full-fledged US attorney for DC went up in flames when Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) opposed him due to his positions on the Capitol riot. The president also named him as pardon attorney. “Many pardons are sort of mundane, right?” Martin reflected. “They’re not famous, they’re not Marc Rich and the political ones — they are people that have simply been wronged.” Martin says his team will follow the facts where they go and isn’t prejudging potential penalties he might pursue on certain cases. “Sometimes there’ll be crimes involved, in which case we’ll prosecute. Sometimes there’ll be just the need to make clear this is not how it’s supposed to go,” he said.

Despite the brutal setback he was dealt last week when he became a rare Trump pick to effectively get rejected by the Senate, Martin believes that the way events unfolded worked out for him. “I think it worked out great,” he said. “I’m gratified that’s happened, but I also just am willing to serve the president.” One of Martin’s allies, Michael Caputo — a self-styled “smashmouth” politico and Russiagate victim who has helped advise the new czar on weaponization — suggested the way events unfolded could prove to be a blessing in disguise. “As an originator of serious weaponization policy development on the campaign, Ed has landed exactly where he belongs,” Caputo said.

Martin is also hoping to be somewhat more outward-facing as the leader of the weaponization working group and promised to be very receptive to feedback.“Anybody who’s got a legitimate example or a complaint or whatever, we want to try to process that,” he said.

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“Can all of Biden’s last-minute pardons of criminals and J6 members who destroyed evidence be enforced or are they null and void as President Trump has declared? Klayman says, “They are null and void..”

America is Under Siege – 233 Federal Cases Against Trump – Larry Klayman (USAW)

Renowned attorney Larry Klayman predicted on USAWatchdog.com that there would be full-blown, legal civil war happening in the court system. He also predicted that violence from the “rabid left” would not only increase but explode. Klayman, founder of Judicial Watch and now Freedom Watch USA, says there are now more than 233 federal court cases trying to stop or delay President Trump and his Administration. Klayman is here to update us on what is going on with the struggle America is having with the Deep State trying desperately to hold on to power.

Let’s start with Joe Biden’s appearance last week on ABC’s “The View,” where he looked confused and incompetent. Can all of Biden’s last-minute pardons of criminals and J6 members who destroyed evidence be enforced or are they null and void as President Trump has declared? Klayman says, “They are null and void and so is every other thing that was allegedly signed by him (Biden). He couldn’t even remember what he signed. . . . This is more than a scandal. It’s the worst scandal ever. Let me tell you something, Biden has not been abused as an elderly person. He abused the American people, and it’s much more than abuse. Biden committed treason.”

What about suspending “habeas corpus” as President Trump is thinking about doing to more quickly deport millions of illegal aliens? Klayman says, “He can do that in dire times, times of war. We are, in effect, in a war. We had drug traffickers, human traffickers, sex traffickers and terrorists running across our border in mass, over 10 million in the Biden Administration alone and many before that. So, yes, it’s a war-time situation, and he (President Trump) can suspend it. . . .Just get them the heck out of here. They are here illegally. They have no right to be here. The President should just ignore these edicts by these San Francisco judges and other judges . . . and do what he needs to do, and they can’t do anything. You know the judiciary has no ability to enforce any ruling. It’s only the Executive Branch, President Trump’s branch that he sit’s over, can enforce the rule of law.

This President has been sued thus far . . . in places like San Francisco, Chicago, Boston, Seattle, Portland and other places where they know they are going to get a Leftist judge. Federal judges are supposed to be assigned randomly. It’s like Wheel of Fortune, but that really does not happen. . . . They actually steer these cases. . . . We need to prosecute these judges and set up the Department of Judicial and Legal Accountability and work with President Trump. I hope he will appoint me to head that with others that will come on board because we need some strong leadership right now because he’s sinking. He (Trump) has been enjoined 70% to 80% of the time in every Executive Order that he has issued. This last one said Trump has no control over his departments anymore. There was a temporary restraining order that says you can’t cut workforce; you can’t do anything.”

Why all the attacks on President Trump? Klayman says, “They are attacking him because they hate him. . . . they are attacking him, and it’s all orchestrated. Washington is one giant, excuse the French, circle jerk. It’s a club.” Larry Klayman is representing conservative reporter Laura Loomer against Bill Maher and HBO. They are being sued by Loomer for falsely claiming she slept with President Trump. Klayman just deposed Maher and wants to release the video deposition. Maher’s lawyers have so far blocked that. Klayman says, “They are fighting tooth and nail to keep the video of Bill Maher secret so it can never be seen. Look at the hypocrisy. Laura Loomer gets defamed by Bill Maher, and the court has already denied a motion to dismiss . . .

She gets smeared all over the world, defamed that she had sex with the President behind the back of Melania. . . . Loomer’s reputation gets harmed, and this harms her financially . . . You can smear a woman and . . . . If President Clinton can have his deposition released, who is Bill Maher that he should be protected? Maher gave money to Kamela Harris as a political candidate. That’s why Maher went after Loomer, because she was a way to get to Trump.” In closing, Klayman has a warning, “Pro Hamas demonstrators are busting up campuses threatening Jews and Christians, we see that. We see Hakeem Jefferies the Minority Leader in the House, and Ilhan Omar, Rashita Tlaib, AOC and Bernie Sanders whipping up violence along with Jasmine Crockett, and they are calling for violence.” Are we headed for a civil war? Klayman says, “I believe we are.”

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Japan
https://twitter.com/Censored4sure/status/1921611973927842032

Civil war

Dore

Duck

Istanbul

 

 

 

 

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Jan 312018
 


Paul Gauguin Farm in Brittany 1894

 

Market Euphoria May Turn to Despair If 10-Year Yield Jumps to 3% (BBG)
Forget Stocks, Look At EU Bonds – They Are The Real Problem (Luongo)
The Ticking Time Bomb in the Municipal-Bond Market (Barron’s)
UK Interest-Only Mortgagees Are at Risk of Losing Their Homes
US National Debt Will Jump by $617 Billion in 5 Months (WS)
Trump Urges Congress To Pass $1.5 Trillion In Infrastructure Spending (R.)
Trump Joins Bezos, Dimon, Buffett In Pledge To Stop Soaring Drug Prices (MW)
Trump Says ‘100%’ After He’s Asked to Release GOP Memo (BBG)
Saving Rate Drops to 12-Year Low As 50% of Americans Don’t Have Savings (WS)
U.S. Regulators Subpoena Crypto Exchange Bitfinex, Tether (BBG)
Customer Lawsuits Pummel Spanish Banks (DQ)
Britons Ever More Deeply Divided Over Brexit (R.)
The GDP of Bridges to Nowhere (Michael Pettis)

 

 

If central banks and governments have really lost control over bonds, find shelter.

Market Euphoria May Turn to Despair If 10-Year Yield Jumps to 3% (BBG)

It’s getting harder and harder to quarantine the selloff in Treasuries from equities and corporate bonds. The benchmark 10-year U.S. yield cracked 2.7% on Monday, rising to a point many forecasters weren’t expecting until the final months of 2018. For over a year, range-bound Treasuries helped keep financial markets in a Goldilocks state, with interest rates slowly rising due to favorable forces like stronger global growth and the Federal Reserve spearheading a gradual move away from crisis-era monetary policy. Yet the start of 2018 caught many investors off guard, with the 10-year yield on pace for its steepest monthly increase since November 2016. It’s risen 30 basis points this year and reached as high as 2.73% in Asian trading Tuesday.

Suddenly, they’re confronted with thinking about what yield level could end the good times seen since the presidential election. For many, 3% is the breaking point at which corporate financing costs would get too expensive, the equity market would lose its luster and growth momentum would fade. “We are at a turning point in the psyche of markets,” said Marty Mitchell, a former head government bond trader at Stifel Nicolaus & Co. and now an independent strategist. “A lot of people point to 3% on the 10-year as the critical level for stocks,” he said, noting that higher rates signal traders are realizing that quantitative easing policies really are on the way out.

U.S. stocks have set record after record, buoyed by strong corporate earnings, President Donald Trump’s tax cuts and easy U.S. financial conditions. The S&P 500 Index has returned around 6.8% this year, once reinvested dividends are taken into account, and the U.S. equity benchmark is already higher than the level at which a Wall Street strategists’ survey last month predicted it would end 2018. What often goes unsaid in explaining the equity-market exuberance is that Treasury yields refused to break higher last year. Instead, they remained in the tightest range in a half-century, allowing companies to borrow cheaply and forcing investors to seek out riskier assets to meet return objectives.

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It’s all bonds, not even just sovereign bonds. Investors will move from equities into bonds all over the place.

Forget Stocks, Look At EU Bonds – They Are The Real Problem (Luongo)

While all the headlines are agog with stories about the Dow Jones dropping a couple hundreds points off an all-time high, German bunds are getting killed right before our eyes. The Dow is simply a market overdue for a meaningful correction in a primary bull market. And it’s a primary bull market brought on by a slow-moving sovereign debt crisis that will engulf Europe. It’s not the end of the story. Hell, the Dow isn’t even a major character in the story. In fact, similar stories are being written in French 10 year debt, Dutch 10 year debt, and Swiss 10 year debt. These are the safe-havens in the European sovereign debt markets. Meanwhile, Italian 10 year debt? Still range-bound. Portuguese 10 year debt? Near all-time high prices. The same this is there with Spain’s debt. All volatility stamped out. Why? Simple. The ECB.

The ECB’s quantitative easing program and negative interest rate policy (NIRP) drove bond yields across the board profoundly negative for more than a year. [..] the ECB is trapped and cannot allow rates to rise in the vulnerable sovereign debt markets — Italy, Portugal, Spain — lest they face bank failures and a real crisis. The problem with that is, the market is scared and so they are selling the stuff the ECB isn’t buying – German, French, Dutch, Swiss debt. In simple terms, we are seeing the flight into the euro intensify here as investors are raising cash. The euro and gold are up. The USDX continues to be weak even though capital is pouring into the U.S. thanks to fundamental changes to tax and regulatory policy under President Trump. In the short term Dow Jones and S&P500 prices are overbought. Fine. Whatever. But, the real problem is not that. The real problem is the growing realization in the market that governments and central banks do not have an answer to the debt problem.

[..] The U.S. economy is about to be unleashed by Trump’s tax cut law. It will be able to absorb higher interest rates for a while. Yield-starved pension funds, as Armstrong rightly points out, will be bailed out slightly forestalling their day of reckoning. And in doing so, higher rates in the U.S. are driving core-rates higher in Europe. An overly-strong euro is crushing any hope of further economic recovery in the periphery, like Italy. The debt load on Italy et.al. has increased relative to their national output by around 20% since the end of 2016. This will put the ECB at risk of a massive loss of confidence when Italian banks start failing, Italy’s budget deficit starts expanding again and hard-line euroskeptics win the election in March. As capital is drained out of Europe into U.S. equities, the dollar, gold and cryptocurrencies, things should begin to spiral upwards rapidly.

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See? More bonds. Meredith Whitney was 10 years early.

The Ticking Time Bomb in the Municipal-Bond Market (Barron’s)

There’s a looming disaster in the market for municipal debt. Every market participant knows about it, and there isn’t much any of them can do about it. Many state and local governments, even more than corporations, have promised generous pensions they can’t afford. The promises may have looked plausible in the past, especially during the dot-com boom, when money that pension funds put in the markets was doubling. When the market crashed, so did their returns—and, a few years later, the global financial crisis took out another substantial chunk. And with interest rates at historic lows, bonds have failed to deliver the income the funds relied on. While governments delay dealing with the problem as long as they can, analysts and researchers are wondering if we have reached the point of no return. For investors in municipal bonds, it could mean future defaults and losses.

“We are increasingly wary of high pension exposure, especially among state and local credits,” the Barclays muni-research team wrote this month, citing “inflated return targets, low funded ratios, growing obligations, perhaps heavy allocations to equities and compressed tax revenues make for especially adverse conditions.” What’s more, “short-term investment gains won’t be sufficient to plug liability gaps.” Yet many pensions still assume they will be able to generate the returns they saw in the past. New Jersey’s pension and the California Public Employees’ Retirement System have lowered their assumed rate of return to 7%. But with the 30-year Treasury yielding less than 3% and stocks already at record highs, it’s unclear how public markets can generate 7%—which is why many pensions have turned to higher-risk, lower-liquidity strategies, such as private equity.

Muni investors, for their part, are increasingly sensitive to pensions’ widening gap. After the financial crisis and the ensuing recession, they suddenly became interested in pension finances. A report late last year by the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College found that, as pension liabilities grew, spreads between state and local municipal bonds and Treasuries also increased. When such issuers came to issue new debt, they discovered the market was charging them more to borrow. “Pensions have become increasingly relevant to the municipal bond markets and can have a meaningful impact on the borrowing costs of a municipality,” the report says.

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Rising bond yields mean higher mortgage rates. Australia is overflowing with interest only loans. Plenty other countries have loads of it too.

UK Interest-Only Mortgagees Are at Risk of Losing Their Homes

Some borrowers with interest-only mortgages may lose their homes as a result of shortfalls in repayment plans, the U.K.’s Financial Conduct Authority warned. The FCA has identified three peaks in interest-only mortgage repayments, the first of which is currently underway. Defaults are less likely in the present wave of maturities because the homeowners are approaching retirement and have higher incomes. The next two peaks, from 2027 through 2028 and in 2032, are more at risk of shortfalls, the regulator said. Customers are reluctant to discuss with their lenders how they’ll pay off the loans, limiting their options, the FCA found. Almost 18% of outstanding mortgages in the U.K. are interest-only or involve only partial payment of the capital, according to the statement.

“Since 2013, good progress has been made in reducing the number of people with interest-only mortgages,” Jonathan Davidson, executive director of supervision retail and authorization at the regulator, said in a statement. “However, we are very concerned that a significant number of interest-only customers may not be able to repay the capital at the end of the mortgage and be at risk of losing their homes.” The FCA reviewed 10 lenders representing about 60% of the interest-only mortgage market for the study. The supervisor also urged lenders to review and improve their own strategies regarding repayment of the loans.

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Now add some infrastructure.

US National Debt Will Jump by $617 Billion in 5 Months (WS)

While everyone is trying to figure out how to twist the new tax cut to their advantage and save some money, the US Treasury Department just announced how much net new debt it will have to sell to the public through the second quarter to keep the government afloat: $617 billion. That’s what the Treasury Department estimates will be the total amount added to publicly traded Treasury securities — or “net privately-held marketable borrowing” — through the end of the second quarter. This will be the net increase in the US debt through the end of Q2. By quarter: During Q1, the Treasury expects to increase US public debt by $441 billion. It includes estimates for “lower net cash flows.” During Q2 – peak tax seasons when revenues pour into the Treasury – it expects to increase US public debt by $176 billion.

It also “assumes” that with these increases in the debt, it will have a cash balance at the end of June of $360 billion. So over the next five months, if all goes according to plan, the US gross national debt of $24.5 trillion currently – which includes $14.8 trillion in publicly traded Treasury securities and $5.7 trillion in internally held debt – will surge to about $25.1 trillion. That’s a 4% jump in just five months. Note the technical jargon-laced description for this (marked in green on the chart). The flat lines in 2013, 2015, and 2017 are a result of the prior three debt-ceiling fights. Each was followed by an enormous spike when the debt ceiling was lifted or suspended, and when the “extraordinary measures” with which the Treasury keeps the government afloat were reversed. And note the current debt ceiling, the flat line that started in mid-December.

In November, Fitch Ratings said optimistically that, “under a realistic scenario of tax cuts and macro conditions,” the US gross national debt would balloon to 120% of GDP by 2027. The way things are going right now, we won’t have to wait that long. Back in 2012, gross national debt amounted to 95% of GDP. Before the Financial Crisis, it was at 63% of GDP. At the end of 2017, gross national debt was 106% of GDP! Over the next six month, the debt will grow by about 4%. Unless a miracle happens very quickly, the debt will likely grow faster over the next five years due to the tax cuts than over the past five years. But over the past five years, the gross national debt already surged nearly 25%, or by $4.1 trillion. So that’s a lot of borrowing, for an economy that is growing at a decent clip.

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Coverage of SOTU proves my point: Moses split the nation.

As for infrastructure, they will go for what provides most short term gain. That is, make people pay. For roads, not public transport, for instance.

Trump Urges Congress To Pass $1.5 Trillion In Infrastructure Spending (R.)

President Donald Trump called on the U.S. Congress on Tuesday to pass legislation to stimulate at least $1.5 trillion in new infrastructure spending. In his State of the Union speech to Congress, Trump offered no other details of the spending plan, such as how much federal money would go into it, but said it was time to address America’s “crumbling infrastructure.” Rather than increase federal spending massively, Trump said: “Every federal dollar should be leveraged by partnering with state and local governments and, where appropriate, tapping into private-sector investment.” The administration has already released an outline of a plan that would make it easier for states to build tollways and to privatize rest stops along interstate highways.

McKinsey & Company researchers say that $150 billion a year will be required between now and 2030, or about $1.8 trillion in total, to fix all the country’s infrastructure needs. The American Society of Civil Engineers, a lobbying group with an interest in infrastructure spending, puts it at $2 trillion over 10 years. Trump said any infrastructure bill needed to cut the regulation and approval process that he said delayed the building of bridges, highways and other infrastructure. He wants the approval process reduced to two years, “and perhaps even one.” Cutting regulation is a top priority of business lobbying groups with a stake in building projects and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

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Just the kind of folk you want in charge of your health. With your medical needs standing in the way of their profits.

Trump Joins Bezos, Dimon, Buffett In Pledge To Stop Soaring Drug Prices (MW)

President Trump pledged to bring down drug prices. “One of my greatest priorities is to reduce the price of prescription drugs,” Trump said during his State of the Union address on Tuesday evening. “In many other countries, these drugs cost far less than what we pay in the United States and it’s over, very unfair. That is why I have directed my administration to make fixing the injustice of high drug prices one of our top priorities for the year.” Mark Hamrick, Washington, D.C. bureau chief at Bankrate.com, said the president has made that promise before. “Will his choice of a former drug industry executive, Alex Azar, now the head of Health and Human Services, deliver results on that front?” he said. “I’d prefer to place my bet on the partnership just announced by Berkshire Hathaway, J.P. Morgan Chase and Amazon.”

Earlier Tuesday, Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway and JP Morgan Chase, three of the biggest companies in the U.S., surprised the health-care industry on Tuesday with a plan to form a company to address rising health costs for their U.S. employees. They said it will be “free from profit-making incentives and constraints.” Health-care costs have skyrocketed over the last 60 years, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation, a nonprofit, private foundation based in Washington, D.C. In 1960, hospital costs cost $9 billion. In 2016, they cost $1.1 trillion. In 1960, physicians and clinics costs were $2.7 billion, but ballooned to $665 billion. Prescription drug prices soared from $2.7 billion in 1960 to $329 billion. U.S. health-care spending reached $3.3 trillion, or $10,348 per person in 2016.

The Trump administration has pledged to roll back the 2010 Affordable Care Act, perhaps Barack Obama’s signature achievement as U.S. president. Roughly 1 million people will lose their insurance under Trump’s plans, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Berkshire Hathaway chairman and CEO Warren Buffett didn’t hold back in excoriating the health-care industry. “The ballooning costs of health care act as a hungry tapeworm on the American economy,” Buffett said. Amazon founder CEO Jeff Bezos and J.P. Morgan Chase chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon were more measured in their remarks. “Amazon, Chase and Berkshire Hathaway think they can do it better than the insurance companies,” said Jamie Court, president of Consumer Watchdog. “There’s a lot of frustration with the high cost of health insurance, yet government’s offering almost no systemic solutions. It’s as big a change as I have seen in the market in years.”

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Just do it?! Perhaps it makes sense not to release it before SOTU, it would have been the only talking point.

Trump Says ‘100%’ After He’s Asked to Release GOP Memo (BBG)

President Donald Trump was overheard Tuesday night telling a Republican lawmaker that he was “100%” planning to release a controversial, classified GOP memo alleging bias at the FBI and Justice Department. As he departed the House floor after delivering his State of the Union address, C-SPAN cameras captured Representative Jeff Duncan, a South Carolina Republican, asking Trump to “release the memo.” Republican lawmakers say the four-page document raises questions about the validity of the investigation into possible collusion between Trump’s campaign and Russia, now led by Special Counsel Robert Mueller. “Oh yeah, don’t worry, 100%,” Trump replied, waving dismissively. “Can you imagine that? You’d be too angry.”

Republicans in the House moved to release the memo, authored by House Intelligence Chairman Devin Nunes, in a party-line vote on Monday. The move has been opposed by Democrats, who argue the memo gives an inaccurate portrayal of appropriate actions undertaken by law enforcement, and by the Justice Department, which has said it should remain classified. Releasing the memo has become a cause for conservative congressional Republicans, who say the FBI and the Justice Department pursued the investigation of possible Russian ties to the Trump presidential campaign under false pretenses. Trump has as many as five days to review the document for national security concerns, and White House officials insisted earlier Tuesday he hadn’t yet seen the document.

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Talk about your American Dream: “..households are living paycheck-to-paycheck even if those paychecks are reasonably large and even if life is comfortable at the moment.”

Saving Rate Drops to 12-Year Low As 50% of Americans Don’t Have Savings (WS)

In terms of dollars, personal saving dropped to a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate of $351.6 billion, meaning that at this rate in December, personal savings for the whole year would amount to $351.6 billion. This is down from the range between $600 billion and $860 billion since the end of the Financial Crisis. But who is – or was – piling up these savings? Numerous surveys provide an answer, with variations only around the margins. For example, the Federal Reserve found in its study of US households: Only 48% of adults have enough savings to cover three months of expenses if they lost their income. An additional 22% could get through the three-month period by using a broader set of resources, including borrowing from friends and selling assets. But 30% would not be able to manage a three-month financial disruption. 44% of adults don’t have enough savings to cover a $400 emergency and would have to borrow or sell something to make ends meet.

Folks who had experienced hardship were more likely to resort to “an alternative financial service” such as a tax refund anticipation loan, pawn shop loan, payday loan, auto title loan, or paycheck advance, which are all very expensive. Similarly, Bankrate found that only 39% of Americans said they’d have enough savings to be able to cover a $1,000 emergency expense. They rest would have to borrow, sell, cut back on spending, or not deal with the emergency expense. All these surveys say the same thing: about half of Americans have little or no savings though many have access to some form of credit, including credit cards, pawn shops, payday lenders, or relatives. So what does it mean when the “saving rate” declines?

Many households spend more than they make. For them, the personal saving rate is a negative number. This negative personal saving rate translates into borrowing, which explains the 5.7% year-over-year surge in credit card debt, and the 5.5% surge in overall consumer credit. It boils down to this: most of the positive saving rate, with savings actually increasing, takes place at the top echelon of the economy – at the top 40%, if you will – where households are flush with cash and assets and where the saving rate is very large. But the growth in borrowing for consumption items (the negative saving rate) takes place mostly at the bottom 60%, where households are living paycheck-to-paycheck even if those paychecks are reasonably large and even if life is comfortable at the moment.

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Peculiar: $2.3 billion ‘worth’ of a dollar-pegged ‘currency’, backed by nothing much in proof.

U.S. Regulators Subpoena Crypto Exchange Bitfinex, Tether (BBG)

U.S. regulators are scrutinizing one of the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges as questions mount over a digital token linked to its backers. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission sent subpoenas on Dec. 6 to virtual-currency venue Bitfinex and Tether, a company that issues a widely traded coin and claims it’s pegged to the dollar, according to a person familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified discussing private information. The firms share the same chief executive officer. Tether’s coins have become a popular substitute for dollars on cryptocurrency exchanges worldwide, with about $2.3 billion of the tokens outstanding as of Tuesday.

While Tether has said all of its coins are backed by U.S. dollars held in reserve, the company has yet to provide conclusive evidence of its holdings to the public or have its accounts audited. Skeptics have questioned whether the money is really there. “We routinely receive legal process from law enforcement agents and regulators conducting investigations,” Bitfinex and Tether said Tuesday in an emailed statement. “It is our policy not to comment on any such requests.” Bitcoin, the biggest cryptocurrency by market value, tumbled 10% on Tuesday. It fell another 3.2% to $9,766.41 as of 9:19 a.m. in Hong Kong, according to composite pricing on Bloomberg. The virtual currency hasn’t closed below $10,000 since November.

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Who’s aiding Spain in keeping its problems hidden? 30,000 complaints in 9 months, and the ECB is silent?!

Customer Lawsuits Pummel Spanish Banks (DQ)

Following a succession of consumer-friendly rulings, bank customers in Spain are increasingly taking their banks to court. And many of them are winning. Last year an unprecedented wave of litigation against banks forced the Ministry of Justice to set up dozens of courts specialized in mortgage matters to prevent the collapse of the rest of the national judicial system. The Bank of Spain, according to its own figures, received 29,957 complaints from financial consumers between January and September 2017 — already double that of the previous year and by far the highest number of complaints registered since 2013, a record year when investors and customers were desperately trying to claw back the money they’d lost in the preferred shares that issuing banks had pushed on their own customers as savings products.

In 2017, eight out of 10 complaints related to one key product: mortgages, and in particular the so-called “floor clauses” contained within them. These floor clauses set a minimum interest rate — typically of between 3% and 4.5% — for variable-rate mortgages, even if the Euribor dropped far below that figure. This, in and of itself, was not illegal. The problem is that most banks failed to properly inform their customers that the mortgage contract included such a clause. Those that did, often told their customers that the clause was an extreme precautionary measure and would almost certainly never be activated. After all, they argued, what are the chances of the Euribor ever dropping below 3.5% for any length of time? At the time (early 2009), Europe’s benchmark rate was hovering around the 5% mark.

Within a year it had crashed below 1% and has been languishing at or below zero ever since. As a result, most Spanish banks were able to enjoy all the benefits of virtually free money while avoiding one of the biggest drawbacks: having to offer customers dirt-cheap interest rates on their variable-rate mortgages. But all that came to a crashing halt in May 2013 when Spain’s Supreme Court ruled that the floor clauses were abusive and that the banks must reimburse all the funds they’d overcharged their mortgage customers — but only from the date of the ruling! Then, on December 21, 2016, the European Court of Justice (ECJ) delivered a further hammer blow when it acknowledged the right of homeowners affected by “floor clauses” to be reimbursed money dating back to when the mortgage contract was first signed. Since the ECJ ruling, law firms are now so confident of winning floor-clause cases that they’re even offering no win, no-fee deals.

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US and UK suffer from the exact same problem.

Britons Ever More Deeply Divided Over Brexit (R.)

The social divide revealed by Britain’s 2016 vote to leave the European Union is not only here to stay but deepening, according to academic research published on Wednesday. Think tank The UK in a Changing Europe said Britons were unlikely to change their minds about leaving the EU, despite the political and economic uncertainty it has brought, because attitudes are becoming more entrenched. “The (Brexit) referendum highlighted fundamental divisions in British society and superimposed a leave-remain distinction over them. This has the potential to profoundly disrupt our politics in the years to come,” said Anand Menon, the think tank’s director.

Britain is negotiating a deal with the EU which will shape future trade relations, breaking with the bloc after four decades, but the process is complicated by the divisions within parties, society and the government itself. Menon said the research, based on a series of polls over the 18-month period since Britain voted to leave the European Union, showed 35% of people self-identify as “Leavers” and 40% as “Remainers”. Research also found that both sides had a tendency to interpret and recall information in a way that confirmed their pre-existing beliefs which also added to the deepening of the impact of the vote. The differences showed fragmentation was more determined by age groups and location than by economic class.

Polls have shown increasing support for a second vote on whether or not to leave the European Union once the terms of departure are known, but such a vote would not necessarily provide a different result, a poll by ICM for the Guardian newspaper indicated last week. The report also showed that age was a better pointer to how Britons voted than employment. Around 73% of 18 to 24-year-olds voted to stay in the EU, but turnout among that group was lower than among older voters. “British Election Study surveys have suggested that, in order to have overturned the result, a startling 97% of under-45s would have had to make it to the ballot box, as opposed to the 65% who actually voted,” the report said.

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How China hides debt through swaps. As US and EU have done for ages now.

The GDP of Bridges to Nowhere (Michael Pettis)

In most economies, GDP growth is a measure of economic output generated by the performance of the underlying economy. In China, however, Beijing sets annual GDP growth targets it expects to meet. Turning GDP growth into an economic input, rather than an output, radically changes its meaning and interpretation. On January 18, 2018, China’s National Bureau of Statistics announced that the country’s GDP grew by 6.9% in 2017. A day earlier, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced that total social financing (TSF) in 2017 had increased to 19.44 trillion renminbi.

[..] I was recently part of a discussion on a listserv that brings together Chinese and foreign experts to exchange views on China-related topics. What set off this discussion was a claim that the Chinese economy began to take deleveraging seriously in 2017. Everyone agreed that debt in China is still growing far too quickly relative to the country’s debt-servicing capacity, but the pace of credit growth seems to have declined in 2017, even as real GDP growth held steady and, more importantly, nominal GDP growth increased. I was far more skeptical than some others about how to interpret this data. It is not just the quality of data collection that worries me, but, more importantly, the prevalence in China of systemic biases in the way the data is collected. Not all debt is included in TSF figures. The table above, for example, indicates a fall in TSF in 2015, but this did not occur because China’s outstanding credit declined.

[..] in 2015 there was a series of debt transactions (mainly provincial bond swaps aimed at reducing debt-servicing costs and extending maturities) that extinguished debt that had been included in the TSF category and replaced it with debt not included in TSF. The numbers are large. According to the China Daily, there were 3.2 trillion renminbi worth of bond swaps in 2015, plus an additional 600 billion renminbi of new bonds issued. If we adjust TSF by adding these back, rather than indicate a decline of 6.4%, we would have recorded an increase of 15.7%. [..] The point is that the deceleration in credit growth implied by TSF data might indeed reflect the beginning of Chinese deleveraging, but it could also reflect the surge in regulatory concern. In the latter case, this would mean that China has experienced not the beginnings of deleveraging, but rather a continuation of the trans-leveraging observers have seen before.

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