Jan 102023
 
 January 10, 2023  Posted by at 3:14 pm Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , ,  Add comments


John Koch Conversation 1962

 

 

I don’t really like to do predictions, not without tea leaves and crystal balls, but I do have one. My prediction is that NATO will -try to- expand/widen/deepen the Ukraine conflict in 2023, and not just a little. They have to, because Ukraine as a theater is failing, no matter how much additional weaponry they import into it. And because Ukraine is running out of -under 65- boots on the ground.

Next step will be to actively involve the NATO members who despise Russia most. Ergo: the Baltic States. Problem with that is there’s not a lot of people there. But it’s just a hop across the border from Lithuania to Poland. And Poland is a whole different story. And, like the Baltics, but unlike Ukraine, a NATO member.

Here’s NATO’s own numbers: Defence Expenditure of NATO Countries (2014-2022)

 

Poland has the weaponry, and the trained personnel. No threat to Russia, but you could sell is as such. Poland is just what Washington likes. And Raytheon, Northrop etc. The US cannot send US troops into the theater. And neither can Western Europe. Unpalatable. Countries like Germany, France and Holland won’t even think about sending troops. NATO depends on eastern European cannon fodder. Western Europe, like the US, will only send their second hand armoury. But not so, Poland. Here’s from Politico, November 21 2022:

 

Meet Europe’s Coming Military Superpower: Poland

Poland’s paranoia about Russia prompted it to eschew the prevailing Zeitgeist across much of Europe that conventional warfare was a thing of the past. Instead, it is building what are now on track to become the EU’s heftiest land forces. “The Polish army must be so powerful that it does not have to fight due to its strength alone,” Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on the eve of Poland’s independence day. It’s a shift that has resonated with Poland’s indispensable ally.

“Poland has become our most important partner in continental Europe,” a senior U.S. Army official in Europe said, citing the crucial role Poland has played in supporting Ukraine and in shoring up NATO defenses in the Baltics. While Germany, traditionally America’s key ally in the region, remains a linchpin as a logistical hub, Berlin’s endless debates over how to resurrect its military and lack of a strategic culture have hampered its effectiveness as a partner, the official said. As Germany continues to debate the details of what it calls the “Zeitenwende,” or strategic turning point triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Poland is already making substantial investments.

Warsaw has said it will raise its target defense spending from 2.4% of GDP to 5%. Meanwhile, Germany, which spent about 1.5% of GDP on defense last year, is debating whether it can maintain NATO’s 2% goal after it exhausts a €100 billion defense investment fund it approved earlier this year. Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak pledged in July that his country would have “the most powerful land forces in Europe.” It’s well on its way. Poland already has more tanks and howitzers than Germany and is on course to have a much larger army, with a target of 300,000 troops by 2035, compared with Germany’s current 170,000.

Today, Poland’s military is about 150,000 strong, with 30,000 belonging to a new territorial defense force set up in 2017. These are weekend soldiers who undergo 16 days of training followed up by refresher courses. They were initially seen as a bit of a joke, but Ukraine’s success in using mobile militia equipped with anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles now makes the idea seem much more sensible. “Today, those doubts have disappeared,” Blaszczak said during a recent swearing-in ceremony for new territorial troops.

Unlike Germany, which struggles to attract new troops, Poland’s recruiting drive is gaining attention. “The Poles have a much more positive attitude towards their military than Germany because they had to fight for their freedom,” said Gustav Gressel, a former Austrian military officer and security scholar now with the European Council on Foreign Relations. “In military circles no one questions the quality of the Polish army.”

We would do well to see all this in the light of what Julian Assange said about Afghanistan in 2011. NATO wants a forever war, not a successful one.

 

 

NATO, the US and the rich part of Europe, have nothing to lose. They send plenty of mostly useless weapons into the Ukraine theater, but as long as there are no coffins arriving at their (air)ports, their people won’t complain. On the contrary, their media make sure that they keep cheering it all on. While making sure it remains murky how much it exactly costs them.

I found this very peculiar, through Andrew Korybko:

Top Ukrainian & Former US Officials Are Panicking That $100 Billion In Aid Isn’t Enough

Ukrainian Ambassador to the UK Vadim Prystaiko [..] telling Newsweek: “The West now has a unique chance. There are not many nations in the world who would allow themselves to sacrifice so many lives, territories and decades of development for the purpose of defeating the archenemy…This is what I mean: All hands on deck, every single thing we can spare to help Ukraine win.”

You have a unique chance to have our people shot to bits. We will be happy to sacrifice them for your goals. Just keep giving us weapons, that’s all you have to do. Note the use of the term “archenemy”. For a country whose language and culture is still very much alive for perhaps more than half of Ukrainians. The 2014 US coup unseated a president elected by a majority of the population.

 

For some reason the US dragged two of their biggest old warmongers out of their respective proverbial basements: former US Defense Secretary Robert Gates’ and former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. Who co-wrote this in the WaPo:

Time Is Not On Ukraine’s Side

Under current circumstances, any negotiated cease-fire would leave Russian forces in a strong position to resume their invasion whenever they are ready. That is unacceptable. The only way to avoid such a scenario is for the United States and its allies to urgently provide Ukraine with a dramatic increase in military supplies and capability — sufficient to deter a renewed Russian offensive and to enable Ukraine to push back Russian forces in the east and south.


Congress has provided enough money to pay for such reinforcement; what is needed now are decisions by the United States and its allies to provide the Ukrainians the additional military equipment they need — above all, mobile armor. The U.S. agreement Thursday to provide Bradley Fighting Vehicles is commendable, if overdue. Because there are serious logistical challenges associated with sending American Abrams heavy tanks, Germany and other allies should fill this need. NATO members also should provide the Ukrainians with longer-range missiles, advanced drones, significant ammunition stocks (including artillery shells), more reconnaissance and surveillance capability, and other equipment. These capabilities are needed in weeks, not months.

It’s starting to look like a desperate push. But it will come. Much stronger than today. Desperation has that kind of effect. The suffering will be in Ukraine and soon likely in Poland and Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia. Western Europe will pay through higher food- and energy prices. The US elites will be sitting pretty.

There is zero doubt that we will have to come back to this, a lot, in the near future. But that’s sort of what you do with predictions. They foretell actual events and conversations.

 

Gonzalo Lira talked about these things back in November 2022:

 

To be continued. As long as the people in the west remain oblivious to their own destiny, fate, reality. We are all used to having unipolar control of the world. But those times are over.

 

 

 

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Home Forums Predictions 1: War

Viewing 19 posts - 1 through 19 (of 19 total)
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  • #125685

    John Koch Conversation 1962     I don’t really like to do predictions, not without tea leaves and crystal balls, but I do have one. My predi
    [See the full post at: Predictions 1: War]

    #125694
    Germ
    Participant

    “There’s an old saying in Tennessee — I know it’s in Texas, probably in Tennessee — that says, fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can’t get fooled again.” ― George W. Bush

    #125705
    That Bloke
    Participant

    Raùl, you may not like doing predictions with or without tea leaves, but I do by reading the stars. What they have to say about Western European nations possibly becoming embroiled in a war within the next few months is not comforting.

    For those who are interested, I’m looking at the Capricorn Ingress for 2022, i.e. 21:48 UTC on 21 December 2022. The prediction is valid until the Aries Ingress on 21 March 2023. Let’s take the “capital” of Europe, Brussels.

    Mars (the war planet) is in the 10th house of the government which is already an indication that war features strongly in the minds of the commission (and the Belgian government). Not only that, but he is in opposition with the Moon, representing the public. This is a classic indication of war. Add to that that Mars in this case is the ruler of the 8th house suggests that there will be body bags for soldiers in particular.

    The last point I shall mention is that the 6th house of the workforce, public health and the armed forces has Uranus (the planet of sudden change) as its ruler and Uranus is in terrible condition (in his fall in Taurus). So a sudden change for the worse can be expected for the armed forces.

    Will all this definitely happen? Well, that’s where astrology has its get-out clause: the stars incline they do not impel. Nevertheless, this is one of the nastiest charts I’ve looked at and I’ve been doing this kind of thing for quite a few years.

    #125707
    Bam_Man
    Participant

    “It’s hard to make predictions. Especially about the future.”
    — Yogi Berra

    #125708
    Afewknowthetruth
    Participant

    By the way, waiting for the redactions and the announcement that ‘Russia was responsible’ for the demolition of the Twin Towers and Building Seven, and also the attack on Pentagon.

    Remember that day? when steel reinforced columns collapsed ‘mysteriously; and buildings fell to the ground at freefall acceleration because of low-temperature fires in upper storeys; aircraft engines ‘evaporated’ upon low-speed impact with grass. Remember how the surveillance footage ‘went missing’?

    Rememeber how the only part of the Pentagon that was hit by the cruise-missile/drone passenger aircraft that left no wreckage was the venue for an investigation into the missing billions?

    The crime wave of the mob continues, unabated and apparently unstoppable.

    The crime wave of the mob is unstoppable – except by Russia.

    #125716
    Red
    Participant

    Predict the past? War it is and has been for a long time.

    Emanuel Pastreich: Well, first I’m an American And you could say that I was a card-carrying member of The establishment, in the sense that my father went to Yale and I went to Yale, I grew up in an upper middle class environment, became a professor at University of Illinois, and I was 22 years ago a prominent figure in Asian studies—and I thought I would end up with a very illustrious career. But then I was forced by 9/11 and the build up to 9/11 to face ugly aspects of American culture; it was a change, a negative mutation, in American culture and I watched people being cleared out of government, out of academics, and other places and I felt we’d crossed the Rubicon, and that therefore, as an intellectual, I had a responsibility to take a stand and to oppose this. It was not just me, but it was a small group in America of people who felt we had to take a stand back then in 2001–even before the 911 incident.

    But the institutional decay and contradictions went back to Oklahoma, it went back to the Kennedy assassination in some respects it went back to the end of the second World War. At the end of the Second World War we had this very sad experience —and equally true in London as it is in Washington DC–which is that during the Second World War there was an effort in Washington DC or in London to move away from the imperialist financial system and to get back to something closer to a republic, something based upon representation of the interests and the needs of the average citizen, to move away from global finance.

    But that effort, that effort to maintain healthy institutions, started to fall apart at the end of the Second World War. It took another 30 years to weave the spider’s web in which American and British corporations set up their Headquarters, in the Virgin Islands and other places, and thereby created a parallel alternate universe that is not subject to the rule of law, that is not overseen by anything; just trusts, corporations, offshore holdings.

    “How World Governments Are Run by Multinational Companies”

    #125717
    jb-hb
    Participant

    In WW1, the Allies tried to break the deadlock of western front positional warfare by bringing in new countries and opening new fronts. Italy, Rumania, Greece.

    It became a major barrier to peace talks. To bring in these countries, they had to bribe them with chunks of the opposing countries. Thus, they could not discuss peace terms with the Axis that the Axis found acceptable – it would be breaking the promises that brought their allies into the war.

    Plus for a long time, listening to the concessions being required by the Allies, the Axis would be saying, look man, I’m sitting on top of most of Belgium, the most important chunk of France, big swathes of Russia, most of Rumania, and Italy keeps punching our fist with their face. You want to talk territorial concessions, let’s start there.

    So there was no way for the two ends to meet.

    Here we are with Russia sitting on top of a chunk of land the size of the UK… I REALLY hope NATO isn’t bribing Poland with chunks of Ukraine.

    #125718
    Germ
    Participant

    Middle-aged women warned over dangers of cold water swimming

    “She had coincidentally had her Pfizer Covid-19 booster vaccination six hours before the swim,” the doctors write in the study.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/medical/middle-aged-women-warned-over-dangers-of-cold-water-swimming/ar-AA169MYW

    It’s right there, it’s right in your face!

    TVASF

    ☠️☠️☠️

    #125719
    Red
    Participant

    A notable milestone was passed in 2022 when, for the first time, more than 80,000 different people from around the world – from 154 countries, to be exact – visited Tim Morgan’s Surplus Energy Economjcs website.

    So, the pieces written by Tim Morgan and the hundreds of responses to each one are reaching around the world. But not being talked about in polite places, such as this thinktank.

    The Overton Window provides a nice explanation of why a shrinking economy is politically unacceptable at present.

    The public is not yet aware that it is how things are. So, the idea is unthinkable.

    It has been suggested that there are six degrees of acceptance of public ideas:

    This is really happening – why are politicians keeping so quiet?

    #125720
    jb-hb
    Participant

    (facepalm) I’m an idiot. They don’t even have to offer them parts of Ukraine. They can offer Kaliningrad.

    #125723
    boscohorowitz
    Participant

    “Here we are with Russia sitting on top of a chunk of land the size of the UK… I REALLY hope NATO isn’t bribing Poland with chunks of Ukraine.”

    It would follow the playbook to date, for sure. Right now, the story-writer in me thinks that these salt mines make a perfect trigger for a major upgrade in hostilities. The covid narrative is falling apart at a visibly accelerating rate, and it would require something very big to distract from that.

    If Poland makes significant movement, I suspect Russia will hit first, and hit hard.

    As for those magic salt mines, one wonders what role drones might play. That salt mine is a tough nut to crack. But it’s also very complex and labyrinthine. One wonders what maps of the place Russia might have.

    #125726
    Figmund Sreud
    Participant

    Predictions 1: War
    __________________________

    Permit me to speculate a bit: <b>Certainty 1: War</b> Yes, … Poland has been itching for war with Russia ever since, well, ever since Poland was liberated from German occupation in 1945. It’s true, … I lived there, experienced it, but never understood it why it was so, … why it was so, so fervid? I guess I was young back then, … mind you, I’m old now, … and I still don’t understand why Poland enjoys to be such a satrapy, … this time, governed completely and unconditionally, by the U.S.? All mystery to me, …

    F.S.

    #125727
    D Benton Smith
    Participant

    One of my conspiracy theories is that when Germany’s elites and Nazi militarists realized in late 1942 that they would lose WW2 they began making and executing plans to exfiltrate the Reich from the Fatherland into positions of power elsewhere. Not all that hard, really, since the USA and England were already extremely sympathetic to the core ideas of officialized fascism, especially among their ruling elites and militarists. Vis a vis Poland they’ve been a bunch of fucking Nazi’s for nearly a century. Nazi’s hate Russians because Russians kick Nazis’ ass . . . . over and over and over and . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

    #125740
    chooch
    Participant

    Still unconfirmed, but counterattack south of the salt mine has failed. Also, Russians now have the fire control over that fateful T0513 road (connecting Bakhmut with Siversk), and they do have the fire control over the M03 highway (connecting Bakhmut with Slovyansk).

    Photos, of Wagner Boss in salt mine hitting social media.

    #125745
    oxymoron
    Participant

    I’m going with That Bloke.

    The stars, the cycles, the fourth turning.

    So Germ, is the Wim Hoff cold swim craze finally over then? I hate ice baths more than Cockatoos on my fruit trees!

    #125749
    Mr. House
    Participant

    @ D Benton Smith

    Did you know the Poles had a secret agreement in the pact they made with England before WW2 that England would only involve itself if they were invaded by Germany? I always wondered why the Allies didn’t declare war on the USSR. Then you read about how the West Financed the nazi’s and really helped them into power and you begin to wonder, was the war just a way to invade Russia? Look at the causalities for all combatants in the war and tell me what stands out to you compared to say, WW1.

    #125750
    D Benton Smith
    Participant

    @MrHouse

    One theory is that the the ancient Khazarian empire was an almost inconceivably devious, vile and treacherous bunch of power mad perves that was crushed and driven into an involuntary diaspora by the Russians over a thousand years ago and has nurtured a blood vendetta against Russia ever since. The comparative casualty figures of wars since then lends some credence to that notion.

    #125766
    Dr. D
    Participant

    Yes, but you can look at it quite a different way. 1) Ukraine is going down. 2) It will leave a violent, armed desperate power vacuum. 3) Poland and Nato need to salvage what they can. Therefore:

    Poland is going to take Western Ukraine. But we already said this. Obviously they would need to mobilize: it’s a big and very violent place. We implied Russia may let them rather than hold the passionately anti-Russian areas themselves. So isn’t everybody softly on board with this? Okay, maybe they have to find the front lines first to have plausibility but when that fails, what happens but step #1?

    Where is the downside? Poland is Nato and Nato therefore takes half of Ukraine. Re-stated, “Ukraine joins Nato” — or half of it does — which is a Russian red line. So what does Russia get for this? I mean the whole Donbas, manufacturing, coal, grain, the whole Black Sea coast, possibly Odessa, but this implies they would need more than that. And never trust anybody while armies are mobilized and marching.

    How about handing off Estonia and getting a land bridge to Kaliningrad? Nobody cares about Estonia: they were going to sacrifice and murder them all anyway.

    Other thoughts: Biden continues his slavic genocide, just as I said. London tells the slavs to all kill each other and for some reason I can’t fathom, they all do it. They claim they’re the master race and you’re all too stupid to live, but you don’t have to prove them right. Crickey. Yet here we are, about to kill every Polish Slav as well, leaving all Germany particularly, completely untouched as they are entirely helpless as infants. Whhhhhhhy? Because they are Nazis, joined up with WEF and the EU and protected now. Right? Or am I reading this wrong that the helpless, useless are protected, and anyone with power or gumption is sold out.

    “From each according to his ability; to each according to their need.” Clearly Poland loves Germany and Germans so much now they will die to the last Pole so Germany doesn’t have to lose a limp-wristed sissy man and can spend their time on Netflix watching Cuties and dying their hair. Right?

    Oh and that’s a DOUBLE of war spending, the only one anywhere near 2% rate, and now to 5%. ‘Cause they’re all rich n’ stuff.

    #125770
    EoinW
    Participant

    The Russians have said publicly that they are fighting NATO. NATO is the US military. In other words, it’s the US attacking inside Russia and killing/trying to kill Russian troops. I imagine the mental process of moving from this realization to the action of Russia killing Americans is inevitable.

    The flaw in the Polish Adventure idea is that the Russians don’t fall for it. When have they ever gone along with any NATO ideas? Instead of fighting NATO to the last Pole, like the plan tells them to do, I would think you’ll see Russia immediately begin targeting US/British/German military targets. Yes it’s high risk but what choice do the Russians have? We may soon see this start in Syria, with Syrian and Iranians allies killing Americans.

    The difference between Ukraine and Poland is that the Russians have objectives which they must first achieve before they can take on all of NATO. These objectives are almost certain to be accomplished, provided Russia doesn’t bite at the NATO escalation bait.

    Another difference is that there are no Russians living in Poland. No need for a complicated invasion. Just kill anything NATOish, with the usual gradual Russian escalation they are famous for.

    If Washington wishes to escalate after Ukraine, I expect Russia to finally take the gloves off. I also think they’ve quietly made this known to the handful of Americans at the Pentagon who might listen. The Pentagon vetoed war with Iran 3 years ago. Plus we all agree NATO has no stomach for American/British/German lives being lost.

    in the end, I think it’s easier to drop Ukraine down the memory hole, like they’ve done with Afghanistan. That’s the nice thing about owning the media, you can create what reality you like. Also China/Taiwan may get their attention before the Russians have finished cleaning up Ukraine.

    The only war our political class has a chance of winning is an one front war – against their own citizens. Eventually these bullies will fall back on that.

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