Ken Barrows
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Oil is insanely cheap if it’s being sold for less than the cost of extraction. That’s what to look at, not the price of crude in 1861.
“Planet Earth is blue and there’s nothing I can do.” Enjoyed a Bowie concert in 1987, although I liked Peter Gabriel (who’s still alive) even better.
Gee, I am so surprised that there’s nothing in that first article screaming the S & P was flat in 2015 because the Fed balance sheet was flat, too. Correlation may not be causation, but it seems that first article is just coming up with reasons off the top of the writer’s head.
As laypeople, we’re always suspectible to altered data, so go ahead and speculate. I will say, though, that carbon dioxide has gone from 320 ppm in 1965 to 400 ppm today. CO2 and temperature correlated in the paleoclimate data (correlation is not causation, I know). Half of all CO2 emissions since 1988. No realistic change of CO2 levels halting for decades. Let’s hope CO2 is not a greenhouse gas.
And, finally, yes, it’s a doggone dirty shame if Goldman Sachs profits from climate policy. Let’s all just conserve, k?
SteveB, I guess it depends on what you consider “efficiency. But adding 1,600+ wells over 12 months and having lower production doesn’t seem “efficient” to me:
https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/stats/historicalbakkenoilstats.pdf
Is the Bakken so much worse than everywhere else?Good article. Maybe you’re joking about “efficient” shale, but they’re not efficient at all. Bakken barrels per day per well has been dropping for a year or more; I doubt Texas is much different.
This “efficient drilling” meme makes my head spin. Unless North Dakota is much worse than the rest of N. America, you have at least hundreds of millions of dollars of new investment over the last year for lower production. That’s efficient? I guess as long as who needs to get paid, gets paid.
If you observe the oceans acidifying, why wouldn’t you advocate cutting carbon emissions. I think you fellows are just cherry picking and aren’t really interested in environmental issues, which is your right.
I think the opposing sides in the climate change debate need to agree on what data is important or otherwise retreat to their separate corners.
As always, carbon emissions reduction is needed to stop ocean acidification, if nothing else. Dr. D and Nassim, you need to show that the oceans aren’t acidifying.
Dr. Diablo,
Just for the record, I assuming this is what you’re referring to:
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/Doesn’t David Walker know that debt is what makes industrial society run? If the federal government heeds his call, the private sector will have to take up the slack. And, if that is the case, the Federal Reserve better keep interest rates at zero until the Rapture.
Professor,
That is quite the conundrum. If I am wrong, new extraction will at least pay off the interest on the loans and the workers. But if the value of what’s extracted cannot, then what do you call it? Collapse?Here’s a WAG. By 2030, no new oil extraction is profitable, anywhere. It’s the same for NG not too long after.
Greenpa,
I’ll vote for ocean acidification, which makes the argument that we shouldn’t cut carbon emissions because the climate isn’t warming superfluous.“Investors” don’t care about Fed “credibility.” They do care about the Fed put, though. If the Fed can raise but convince those who matter that the put is there… voila!
So Mr. Brooks asks: “How did our financial system weaken to the point where a quarter of a % increase in rates is more than it can handle?”
Here’s your answer: Because debt is a feature of the system, not a bug. Generally declining interest rates (in the US) since about 1983 underscore this reliance.
A part of this debacle can be laid at the feet of the incompetent Hillary Clinton, who was Secretary of State during the Libyan campaign of 2011.
Whether the climate is changing won’t be relevant because the ocean is acidifying. Cutting carbon emissions is the right thing to do regardless of whether you are a “warmist.” Unfortunately, though, some want to profit off carbon reduction schemes.
Changes in the not too distant future? I am tempted to ask for a specific prediction. However, I am more interested in the trigger for the collapse. For example, why can’t US stock indices double once more despite a stagnant economy? Seems to me that a few gigantic financial institutions would have to fail, but how do we get from here to that point when, for example, an unaudited Fed can provide support as needed?
The Economist is wrong; debt is not worrisome. Rather, it’s necessary (that debt increase exponentially). At least it’s necessary to maintain the world the Economist desires.
I think we get the nonsense we get because Syriza sees leaving the Euro as “game over” and the Germans see forgiving debt as the same. So the saga drags on.
IMO, Tsipras and all other Greek politicians are useless if they don’t acknowledge the End of More. I do realize it would be difficult to remain a Greek politician after making that admission.
E Swanson,
The Germans. I’ll change my mind if Greece gets significant debt relief. If it does, TAE will let us know.Looks like “yes” tomorrow. Global corporatism or bust! I can understand the “yes” vote if the voter thinks there is no alternative. I can say the Greeks are running scared, but any country probably wouldn’t be better if faced with the same situation.
Greek leaders aren’t using exiting the Euro as leverage. Hence, the majority of Greeks will feel it good and hard (not so good, really).
Since some of you gents live for climate news and data:
Are those arguing against climate change doing it so carbon taxes/regulations remain off the table? If so, you also ought to work on proving that the oceans aren’t acidifying.
Easy Access to Money Keeps US Oil Pumping: Disproving the old axiom that production doesn’t happen unless marginal benefit is greater than marginal cost.
I know I should respect the complexity of the issues, but it remains simple for me. Global debt must outpace global “growth.” If it doesn’t, things go to s**t. How long that wait is is anyone’s guess.
