Ken Barrows
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DS,
Sorry I cannot resist. Why is this data important? Because it shows what you want to show? Which is what exactly? That ice has to melt all over the globe (like an ice cream cone) simultaneously to show global warming? An explanation given for the South Pole ice rise is winds, take it or leave it.Certainly it’s true that a vast consensus can be wrong. We’ll see if those opinions are wrong. I see you used to say no global warming in fifteen years, but then 2014 (according to the government data) surpassed the super El Nino of 1998. So throw out and get another theory.
I guess you think carbon dioxide (half of all emissions globally since 1988) can be emitted infinitely into the atmosphere with no effects. We’ll see. Of course, everyone who disagrees with you is hoodwinked, so there’s no discussion to be had. Just waiting as homo sapiens continues to emit carbon.
Keep venting if you want to, though.
Oh, it’s logical for Greece to remain in the Euro if its citizens wants to drive en masse. If Greece doesn’t have a goal to simplify its lifestyle, it’s just pi**ing in the wind.
Forget the stock buyback model. The overarching model is for total debt globally to increase faster than nominal GDP forever.
I think savings are measured by the USA is income less consumption. So $5,000 income and paying a monthly debt of $500 for past credit cards is 10% savings.
At least America’s trade deficit is dropping despite the strong dollar. I suspect it’s because the USA, despite what the media reports, is still a huge crude oil importer.
Fred Nupel,
Good points, but I’d say you don’t really skirt the problem with not for profits. After all, the executives can still earn a lot of …. money. Discussing what’s worth doing is, nonetheless, a useful first step.So, Dr. D, what’s your point? Stuff’s weird. Earth temperature today still 0.60 degrees C above the 1979-2000 average–if you accept this data.
Why does Bloomberg say stupid things like the U.S. oil boom hasn’t slowed yet? Do the reporters look at tables or just rely on an insider’s word?
https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/stats/statisticsvw.asp
Bakken dropped in January over December (and didn’t the year before).When investors allocated their funds based on “productivity,” it was, more or less, labor productivity, maximum output for minimum input. It was not based on net energy or fewer externalities/social costs.
Investors today ought to ask themselves how do they define “productive activity.” Except for permaculture or other small scale, local agriculture, I offer that very little humans do at this point is productive or wealth building. We are takers.
Come-and-take-it,
No one is going to enjoy anything around today for 100 years. Although the MSM may be telling us that US oil production will rise indefinitely, the Bakken tells a different story. Click the Bakken link. Production is down in January 2015 from December 2014 (production was up Dec 2013 to Jan 2014). There were only 57 additional wells. If the Bakken is representative of US oil production, this glut will disappear soon enough unless the USA wants to import more oil.I don’t know. Isn’t it easy to say (if you’re a central banker) that the employment market isn’t that strong with labor force participation around 1977 levels and inflation is subdued because the CPI says so? Thus, let’s keep rates where they are and see what the market does.
It will come to pass that the US economy cannot “grow” anymore with 10 year UST notes above 3% for more than a brief period of time. If the Fed thinks the same, it won’t do more than a token rate hike or two.
Petrobras will be an example showing that producing oil for a marginal cost greater than marginal revenue is not a sound, long-term plan.
Plenty of food but the production is dependent on fossil fuels. To base a food system on a resource that will be practically tapped out by 2100 (or sooner) is sheer folly.
Re: Apple
Making toys is the way to go. Toys are often for children, but most societies usually act like children. So Apple’s success should be no surprise.What is productivity anyway? There’s labor productivity–more output for less labor input. There’s energy productivity–more output for less entropy. There are externalities (social costs) to output. Ah, what a narrow world economists live in!
We’ll see about Syriza. It’s interesting to me, though, that Syriza has had a couple of years to figure out what to do if it took power. It takes power and then kicks the can for four months. I suspect Syriza thinks its people aren’t quite up to the challenge of leaving the Euro. Greece, as all of us eventually, has to prosper without total debt rising faster than growth. Leaving the Euro will make Greece do that sooner rather than later.
Greece can accomplish that better than most countries. It has a good climate and can use tourism for foreign exchange. But if most Greeks think the country can easily return to 2007, they are in for a tough slog. Finally, it appears that Syriza thinks a return to the recent past is possible, too.
Tsipras and Varoufakis should stop talking about “growth.” Their public statements are hankering for a world in the rearview mirror.
I agree with Professorlocknload. Maybe I am conditioned to expect can kicking, but I think Syriza will agree to an extension. Of course, the rationale for the agreement is that the EU has made some sort of concession.
Dr. Krugman neglects to mention lots of things. For instance, on the topic of whether society carries too much debt, I don’t think I have ever seen him write “private debt” in all of his scribblings.
John Day,
On a timeframe of a decade or less, the real economy is going to get eviscerated anyway. Debt forgiveness is a good idea because it gives people a chance to adjust to new ways. Whether many will take advantage is unlikely.
A campaign for debt forgiveness is great. It should be accompanied by a campaign for de-industrialization. Alas, that’s the tricky part.
Well written article. But where does Syriza want the Greek people to be? Lifting them out of misery would have almost unanimous agreement. However, I wonder if the new Greek government thinks Greece can enjoy the lifestyle its people did in 2007.
Not a good day for Syriza. Greek govt is backing away (for now) from demanding debt writedowns. I wonder if supporters of Syriza think it can be 2007 again. If they do, they shouldn’t.
It’s clear that austerity is bad for the Greeks, but theirs and the world’s economic problems developed out of “anti-austerity,” taking on too much debt. If Greece (or the world soon enough) cannot “grow” out of its problem and austerity is a no-go, what’s left?
All this central bank nonsense is shuffling around claims on wealth; it’s not about creating wealth. The particularly sad thing about the proponents of business as usual is none of them knows how to create societal wealth. Creating more debt is a useful proxy for them.
Point out my foolishness later, but I don’t see interest rates rising (short to long) very much. If interest rates across the board spiked, the Federal Reserve would be, incredibly, the most insolvent institution on the planet.
I understand that view that higher rates are needed for bank profitability, but QE is all about overpaying for said banks’ assets. Even keeping ZIRP requires the Fed to intervene, it’s not just “we decree the Fed Funds rate is zero.” So, with all due respect, more QE is more likely than the Fed Funds rate above 1% and a 2 yr UST significantly higher than now.
Gee, I don’t know. I just look at this website every day. The data will tell:
https://cci-reanalyzer.org/DailySummary/
Of course, anyone not agreeing with the data can claim it is fraudulent.Huck,
Back from the holiday, I see. Here’s the trend (whether it includes shadow banking, I don’t know) for the USA. I don’t think it’s better, actually maybe worse, in quite a number of other countries.
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TCMDO
I don’t expect a response but at least you can see it.Mainstream media is dependent on advertising, government, or both. So it’s incompetence or laziness (or both) should not be a surprise.
Huck,
Were you thinking the same in 2007 when doomers warned of a bubble? How come we were so “wealthy” then but not in 2009? And now we’re wealthy again in 2014? It is actually a great question: what is wealth? It seems, though, to be one that you are not willing to explore.If 25% of wells in the Bakken initially produce 1000 bpd or more and 200 wells (through September 2014 anyway) are added every month, how come barrels per day for the whole basin hovers around 130bpd per well?
https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/stats/historicalbakkenoilstats.pdf
I think these Forbes/Motley Fool numbers are taken from those talking their book and not questioned.
https://cci-reanalyzer.org/DailySummary/
Just look at this every day. Data is only as good as its proponent’s trustworthiness, but if this data is accurate you “deniers” are wrong. As a man with nothing better to do, I have looked at this website every day for six + months. The range has been between .26 degrees and .72 degrees C above the 1979-2000 average. Again, IF the data is accurate…
Americans are quite confident that the USA’s waste-based economy can continue for quite some time. And they probably assume that the extraction of oil is basically a cost-free activity.
jal,
I don’t disagree that some oil production is less than $30/barrel. But where it’s at is the margin. I do think there’s a good number of barrels being produced in the USA and Canada that are being produced at a loss right now. (I used to be naive and think that activity should generally be positive cash flow.) So the question is whether world oil markets in a year or two reset at a lower level of production like 2008-09.
