Jul 062025
 


Johannes Vermeer View of Delft 1660-61

 

Iran Moved Its Enriched Uranium Before US Strikes – Seymour Hersh (RT)
Musk Unveils ‘America Party’ To Challenge ‘One-Party System’ (ZH)
Putin Is ‘A Professional’ – Trump (RT)
Bush’s, Obama’s ‘Farewell’-Style Wishes for USAID Staff (DS)
A Very Consequential 2 Weeks for Trump’s Presidency (Zito)
Here’s How Conservatives Can Keep the Momentum Going (Margolis)
A Reminder of What the 4th of July Means (Victor Davis Hanson)
Oh La La… Putin Drops Truth Bomb On Macron (SCF)
No Weapons For Kiev Over Christian Church Persecution – US Congresswoman (RT)
BlackRock Drops Ukraine Fund (RT)
Slovakia Blocks New EU Russia Sanctions (RT)
Hamas’ Has ‘Positive Response’ To Ceasefire, Pressure Mounts On Netanyahu (ZH)
US Plans Massive Arctic Investment (RT)
Head of Ryanair Airline Calls Ursula Von Der Leyen ‘Useless Politician’ (Sp.)
Lights Out, Europe: The Cost of Brussels’ Energy Fantasy (Villamor)

 

 

 

 

https://twitter.com/MAGAVoice/status/1941219409860887018

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“The goal of the operation was to “prevent the Iranians from building a nuclear weapon in the near term – a year or so – with the hope they would not try again,”

Iran Moved Its Enriched Uranium Before US Strikes – Seymour Hersh (RT)

Last month’s US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities failed to hit the country’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Seymour Hersh has claimed, citing US officials. The attack, which involved seven US B-2 ‘Spirit’ bombers carrying 30,000-pound bunker busters, was not even expected to “obliterate” the Iranian nuclear program, one of the journalist’s sources admitted. “The centrifuges may have survived and 400 pounds of 60% enriched uranium are missing,” one of the officials said, adding that the US bombs “could not be assured to penetrate the centrifuge chamber . . . too deep.”

The lack of radioactivity at the targeted Iranian nuclear sites – specifically Fordow and Isfahan – following the attack suggest that the enriched uranium stockpile had been moved ahead of time, one US official familiar with the matter said. Fordow, an underground complex built deep inside a mountain that many believed housed the stockpiles, was a particular focus of the attack.

The US officials cited by Hersh nevertheless believe that the location of the stockpile and its fate are “irrelevant” because of the serious damage the strike allegedly dealt to another Iranian nuclear site near the city of Isfahan. The goal of the operation was to “prevent the Iranians from building a nuclear weapon in the near term – a year or so – with the hope they would not try again,” a US official told Hersh. This could translate into “a couple of years of respite and uncertain future,” the official added. Following the strikes, US President Donald Trump claimed that the attack “completely and totally obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program. CIA Director John Ratcliffe also told lawmakers that several key sites had been completely destroyed and would take years to rebuild.

However, intercepted communications suggested that Tehran had expected a worse impact from the strikes and that the real damage was limited, the Washington Post reported. The strikes were part of a coordinated American-Israeli military campaign launched in mid-June. The Israel Defense Force bombed Iranian targets, claiming that Tehran was close to being able to build a nuclear weapon. Hersh believes that Israel was the “immediate beneficiary” of the US strike. West Jerusalem does not officially acknowledge possessing nuclear weapons. The Jewish State may still have up to 90 nuclear warheads at its disposal, according to a recent report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

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The two-party system is very well protected.

Musk Unveils ‘America Party’ To Challenge ‘One-Party System’ (ZH)

One day after his latest poll asking his followers on X whether the USA needs a new political party, Elon Musk announced on Saturday that the “America party has formed.” “By a factor of 2 to 1, you want a new political party and you shall have it!” Musk wrote. “Today, the America Party is formed to give you back your freedom.” The announcement comes after 1,248,856 people voted ‘yes’ to whether he should “create the America Party.”

The announcement comes one day after President Donald Trump signed his signature tax and spending bill, which Musk has vehemently opposed for weeks, and which resulted in a very public falling out with Trump – whose campaign Musk spent hundreds of millions of dollars promoting. Musk also led the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which found billions of dollars in waste, fraud and abuse – virtually none of which was included in Trump’s so-called “Big Beautiful Bill.” While the Trump-Musk spat has simmered in recent weeks, Trump earlier this week threatened to cut off billions of dollars in subsidies to Musk’s companies.

Meanwhile, Musk foe Steve Bannon tore into the plan for a third political party – saying on his “War Room” podcast on Friday: “The foul, the buffoon. Elmo the Mook, formerly known as Elon Musk, Elmo the Mook. He’s today, in another smear, and this — only a foreigner could do this — think about it, he’s got up on, he’s got up on Twitter right now, a poll about starting an America Party, a non-American starting an America Party.” “No, brother, you’re not an American. You’re a South African and if we take enough time and prove the facts of that, you should be deported because it’s a crime of what you did — among many,” Bannon added.

Musk, meanwhile, wrote on Friday that “The fat, drunken slob called Bannon will go back to prison and this time for a long time. He has a lifetime of crime to pay for.”

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Trump, too, will have to realize the changed ‘realities on the ground”.
And Putin is far more than a professional; he truly loves his country. Just like Trump.

Putin Is ‘A Professional’ – Trump (RT)

Russian President Vladimir Putin is “a professional” who has learned how to handle Western sanctions, but he understands that more could come if the Ukraine conflict is not settled, US President Donald Trump has said. Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One on Friday, Trump confirmed that the two leaders discussed potential sanctions during Thursday’s phone call. “I would say he [Putin] is not thrilled with it, but you know, he’s been able to handle sanctions, but these are pretty biting sanctions.” The Russian president, he added, is fully aware that the US could ramp up the pressure. “You know, he’s a professional. It may be coming,” he added.

In a one-hour phone call, Putin and Trump discussed the Ukraine conflict, the volatile state of affairs in the Middle East, and Russia-US cooperation, according to Kremlin aide Yury Ushakov. Ushakov said Trump raised the issue of ending the hostilities as soon as possible, adding that while Moscow is open to finding a political solution, it will not back down from its goals, including addressing the root causes of the conflict. Later, Trump said he was “unhappy” with the lack of progress towards peace.

US lawmakers have introduced a bill that proposes a 500% tariff on imports from countries that continue to purchase Russian oil and energy products. Introduced by US Senator Lindsey Graham and backed by at least 81 senators, it also proposes extending sanctions on Russia, including its sovereign debt. Last month, Graham claimed that Trump told him “it’s time to move the bill” to a vote. At the time, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Graham’s views are “well known to the whole world,” adding that “he belongs to a group of inveterate Russophobes,” and that he would have imposed new sanctions on Russia long ago if he were in charge.

“Would that have helped the [Ukraine] settlement? That is a question that those who initiate such events should ask themselves,” Peskov said. The US imposed sanctions on Russia in 2014 following the start of the Ukraine crisis. After the conflict escalated in 2022, they were drastically expanded to include financial and energy sanctions, as well as asset freezes. Russian officials have described the sanctions as “illegal,” while highlighting Russia’s economic resilience, arguing that they have strengthened domestic production.

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“..a remarkable display of bipartisan support for an agency plagued by mission creep that has been almost entirely left-wing..”

Bush’s, Obama’s ‘Farewell’-Style Wishes for USAID Staff (DS)

Former Presidents George W. Bush’s and Barack Obama’s farewell messages to staffers of the U.S. Agency for International Development this week reinforce the perception that critics have called the “uniparty” culture in Washington. On Monday, the staff of USAID received video messages from the two former presidents, along with one from Bono, the ultraliberal Irish frontman of the rock band U2. Monday was the last day for foreign assistance programming by USAID, which Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced would be moved under the purview of the State Department. The former presidents and Bono spoke with thousands in the USAID community in a videoconference.

The messages were a remarkable display of bipartisan support for an agency plagued by mission creep that has been almost entirely left-wing. “You had a one-sided uniparty apparatus here [in the State Department and USAID] funding only one side of the political equation,” Max Primorac, who previously served as USAID’s chief operating officer, explained in an interview with “The Signal Sitdown” podcast in February.“You’ve shown the great strength of America through your work, and that is our good heart,” Bush said in his video message to the staff. The Republican ex-president then went on to praise the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), which he launched in 2003.

“Is it in our interest that 25 million people who would have died now live? I think it is,” Bush concluded in an apparent dig at Rubio’s emphasis on putting American interests first in the country’s foreign aid allocation at the direction of President Donald Trump, a fellow Republican. Bush’s critique of his GOP successor’s efforts at realigning PEPFAR with its stated mission is surprising, given that under Democrat President Joe Biden, the program also began to promote abortion. PEPFAR funding had even been used to perform 21 abortions in Mozambique, despite being against U.S. law, Reuters reported in January. “Ending your presence and your programs out in the world hurts the most vulnerable, and it hurts the United States,” Obama, a Democrat, said in his statement to the staff.

“If this isn’t murder, I don’t know what is,” Bono concurred. The Irish singer then subjected the gathered staff to what appeared to be an attempt at making a song about their plight. “They called you crooks—when you were the best of us, there for the rest of us. And don’t think any less of us, when politics makes a mess of us,” he rhymed. Bono was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom by Biden in January. At the ceremony, he was cited as having “brought together politicians from opposing parties to create the United States PEPFAR AIDS program.” A senior State Department official told The Daily Signal in February that Rubio had identified and cut almost 5,800 awards worth about $54 billion from USAID that he said didn’t fit with the core mission of protecting American interests. The State Department has already said a reformed version of PEPFAR will continue to be supported by the federal government.

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“..often the best of the best in the military come from the heartland, from working on the shop floors to defending the country. They understand that the planes might have been made by a member of their community or even their family.”

A Very Consequential 2 Weeks for Trump’s Presidency (Zito)

When the active-duty Air Force and Missouri Air National Guard bomber crews who attacked the Fordow uranium enrichment plant in Iran went to work on June 20, they kissed their loved ones goodbye, not knowing when or if they’d be home. That’s when their families became aware something was happening. “When those jets returned [to Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri on June 22], their families were waiting, flying American flags and shedding tears of pride and relief,” said Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. The jets rejoined into a formation of four, pitching out to land right over the base—a landing Caine said was greeted by incredible cheers and tears from the families who sacrifice and serve right alongside the pilots.

“One commander told me this is a moment in the lives of our families that they will never forget,” Caine said at a press conference Thursday at the Pentagon. “That, my friends, is what America’s joint force does. We think, we develop, we train, we rehearse, we test, we evaluate every single day. And when the call comes to deliver, we do so.” It was a moment of consequence, excellence, leadership, and guts. In the past 12 days, some of the most consequential decisions in American history, those that will affect generations and leave a substantial impact on our culture, economy, and political alignment, have been made either by President Donald Trump or because of him. But they have been largely either downplayed or not fully analyzed in terms of how they all connect.

The U.S. Steel deal between the iconic American company and Nippon Steel happened because of Trump’s ability to apply pressure through negotiations that sometimes bewildered everyone involved. But they led to the literal reversal of fortune of an industry, from the additional supply industries that include mechanics, construction workers, transportation systems, such as railways, and energy. The 50% tariffs Trump announced the day he visited the U.S. Steel plant in West Mifflin, Pennsylvania, were also seen by American manufacturers as a signal that Trump was committed to revitalizing American steel mills. It also signaled an overall mandate to reshore manufacturing in the country.

While much of Wall Street warned that the tariffs would cause a widespread recession, a former critic of the tariffs, Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, did an about-face and wondered if Trump outsmarted everyone, laying out a scenario that keeps tariffs well below Trump’s most aggressive rates long enough to ease uncertainty.

That a steelworker or a welder working for a defense contractor would watch what happened to Iran’s nuclear program and feel a part of it is a nuance in American journalism that is often missed. Sen. David McCormick, R-Pa., told the Washington Examiner that it is an integrated story, both in terms of the consequences of those decisions, bolstering our economic capability and our independence. “But it’s a confidence in leadership story, too,” McCormick said. McCormick, who took office in January after winning against an entrenched Democrat few thought he could defeat, said the nuance of how intertwined moments such as these are is often missed. “These are reinforcing themes,” he said.

McCormick, who grew up in Bloomsburg, Pennsylvania, argues that often the best of the best in the military come from the heartland, from working on the shop floors to defending the country. They understand that the planes might have been made by a member of their community or even their family. “That is where the grit of the country lies,” McCormick said. “Of course, they see what they do as part of something bigger than self, because often people don’t understand the vitality of their profession.” McCormick, who served in the Army and was part of the 82nd Airborne Division deploying to Iraq during the Gulf War, was joined by Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa., in praising Trump’s Iran airstrikes. McCormick said he talked to Trump about the historic strikes on June 22.

“I just called him and just said, ‘Man, so when I put boots on the ground myself personally 30 years ago, I never imagined we’d have this kind of terrorist threat, the risk of a nuclear weapon, and this kind of leadership and competence,’” McCormick said. The president told McCormick something profound about the people who were part of the operation. “The president said, ‘Those young people are magnificent.’ And I said, ‘You know what, Mr. President, the thing about them is, my heart swells when I see that kind of leadership with those 40 kids shooting the Patriots in Qatar,’” McCormick said of the soldiers fighting to intercept Iranian missiles that targeted the U.S. base at Al Udeid in Qatar. McCormick recalled that Trump said, “These are the best America has to offer, and every time I’ve interacted with them, that’s what I said.”

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“President Trump didn’t just listen—he acted, giving his word that his administration would enforce the law as it was intended, not as the swamp wished it would be. That commitment swung the votes.”

Here’s How Conservatives Can Keep the Momentum Going (Margolis)

It’s not every day that conservatives have a reason to break out the confetti in Washington, but today is one of those rare, glorious moments. The One Big Beautiful Bill—President Trump’s signature legislative achievement—has finally crossed the finish line and now awaits his signature tomorrow. It’s time to celebrate with the gusto this victory deserves. For months, the OBBB wound its way through the Capitol, battered by the usual suspects: Democrat obstructionists, media naysayers, and even a handful of Republican holdouts who needed a little extra convincing. But in the end, it was the steady hand and relentless persuasion of President Trump that brought the House conservatives on board and delivered this win for the American people.

The turning point? It wasn’t a backroom deal or a last-minute concession to the left. It was a meeting at the White House, where President Trump sat down with key conservative lawmakers and laid out exactly how he would enforce the bill’s provisions. No more games from green energy companies trying to siphon off taxpayer dollars with phony construction starts. Trump promised to use the full force of the executive branch to make sure that only those who actually deliver get a dime. This wasn’t just about technical tweaks or bureaucratic fine print. Conservatives had real concerns about loopholes in the Senate’s version of the bill—especially when it came to renewable energy credits and the potential for abuse.

Conservatives pushed back, demanding real, verifiable progress before any federal money changed hands. President Trump didn’t just listen—he acted, giving his word that his administration would enforce the law as it was intended, not as the swamp wished it would be. That commitment swung the votes. Rep. Burchett called it “huge,” and he’s right. When the President of the United States looks you in the eye and promises to hold the line, it means something. That’s leadership. That’s why the OBBB passed, and that’s why conservatives are celebrating today. And let’s not forget the spectacle on the House floor. Speaker Mike Johnson, never one to miss a moment, took a well-earned victory lap, reminding the country that this wasn’t just a win for Trump or for Republicans—it was a win for America.

Meanwhile, Democrat Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries could do little more than rant and rave for hours as the conservative majority delivered a resounding rebuke to the left’s agenda. This is what happens when conservatives stand together and refuse to be bullied by the media or the establishment. The OBBB is more than just a legislative victory—it’s a sign that the conservative movement is alive, well, unified, and ready to keep winning. So yes, let’s take a moment to celebrate the passage of the OBBB—a clear, decisive victory for common sense and conservative leadership. This is what happens when Republicans stop playing defense and actually fight back. Real change can happen when we stop caving to the radical left’s hysterics and start standing on principle. And let’s be clear: this is only the beginning.

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“Supreme Court, Congress, president. Executive, legislative, judicial. All equal branches. All checking each other and balancing each other..”

A Reminder of What the 4th of July Means (Victor Davis Hanson)

Today is the 4th of July, and I’d like to remind everybody what the 4th of July is. It’s the formal date when the Second Continental Congress—about a year and four months after the shots heard around the world, the first shots of the Revolutionary War at Lexington and Concord, were fired—the Second Continental Congress decided to formally disband the 13 colonies from Great Britain. Now, two days earlier, Richard Henry Lee of the famous Lee family—he was the first cousin of Light Horse Harry Lee, the father of Robert E. Lee—had introduced an amendment called the Lee Resolution that formally was approved and said we are divorcing ourselves from Great Britain. But two days later, John Adams and mostly Thomas Jefferson decided they needed a more holistic document that would list 23 grievances, why it was necessary. So that version of Jefferson, and to a lesser extent, Adams, became the formal Declaration of Independence. And it was ratified on July 4th.

And we all know it from our high school days, or we should. The first famous line, “When in the course of human events it becomes necessary to disband …” And then, “We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal,” the first line of the second paragraph. So, it’s a foundational document.

And it doesn’t mean that men are God. When Jefferson wrote “that all men are created equal,” it doesn’t mean that they were equal at that time. But it gave an aspirational goal that, if you think about it, would put the Founders out of business, so to speak. Because if all men are created equal and you create this wonderful place, and you don’t have a blood and soil argument that only the people who were here and related to the Founders by race and ethnicity are Americans, but all men are equal, people will flock to the United States. And they might not look like the original Founders. But they would represent the original Founders. They would be the same type of people by ideas and values.

And so the idea of America was really established with the 4th of July. And we’re going to have the 250th anniversary a year from now that will celebrate the 250 years of the United States of America. Today, it’s the 249th anniversary of the 4th of July. This is not the Constitution that will be ratified in 1787 and will formally establish the government. Fourth of July declares that the 13 colonies who have been at war with Great Britain for about 14 or 15 months, and are operating on what we will call the Articles of Confederation, will then free themselves at the Battle of Yorktown. And then they will have a new type of government, which we now call the U.S. Constitution.

There’s a couple of other things to remember on the 4th of July. The British have a very different idea than we do when they look at the 23 grievances. They said, “Wow, you guys have it pretty easy. We’ve been as nice to you, or better, than the people in Canada. And we have all these Commonwealths and they’re not revolting.” And if you want to look at an interesting document, read “The Great Historian.” A good friend of mine, Andrew Roberts, has addressed all 23 grievances from the British point of view and said, “Ah, that was nothing. Oh, they were crybabies. You shouldn’t have done it.”

It was an interesting argument. But it has a phenomenal effect on history because if you look at Canada, if you look at New Zealand, if you look at the former South Africa, if you look at any of the British commonwealths, or for that matter, any country in Europe, they follow a parliamentary system. But the Founders who created the United States—and through this Revolutionary War learned about what was wrong with the British and what were the alternatives for consensual government, came up with this tripartite based on Montesquieu and the separation of powers. It goes back to the Spartan and Cretan constitution, antiquity. They came up with a unique government of checks and balances—Supreme Court, Congress, president. Executive, legislative, judicial. All equal branches. All checking each other and balancing each other, based on a system of federalism, that each state would have the right to be autonomous and free, as long as it did not contradict or conflict with the laws of the union itself. And they solve that problem of the Articles of Confederation.

And this system, 249 years ago, whether it persevered—I don’t know how it persevered in the Revolutionary War. The Americans didn’t have a lot of assets. The French helped a great deal. But then we had the War of 1812. The War of 1848. And of course, the American Civil War, where 700,000 Americans died trying to abolish slavery, and some trying to perpetuate it. And then, of course, we had the Spanish-American War. And then World War I, where 117,000 Americans died. Two million of them went across the Atlantic Ocean to save France and Britain from German precisionism or German autocracy.

And yet, less than 22 years later, the United States would be in another world war, and we would lose about 420,000. And then the Korean War, 1950 to 1953—35,000. Fifty-six thousand in Vietnam. So, it’s very valuable on this date, to realize that from time to time, from generation to generation, thousands of Americans have fought to protect the ideas of the American Revolution and the United States itself. And on this July 4th, we need to give them a due. And remember what they did, who they were, and why they did it.

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“Russia will end the conflict that Macron and other NATO powers started illegally, and the ending of it will be on Russia’s terms.”

“When discussing the situation surrounding Ukraine, Vladimir Putin reiterated that the conflict was a direct consequence of the policies pursued by the Western countries, which had for years been ignoring Russia’s security interests, creating an anti-Russia staging ground in the country..”

Oh La La… Putin Drops Truth Bomb On Macron (SCF)

NATO started the conflict in Ukraine, but Russia will end it on its terms, Russian President Vladimir Putin told his French counterpart this week in a wake-up call. It’s always refreshing and necessary to bring reality into a conversation, assuming, of course, that the purpose of the dialogue is genuinely to resolve a problem. France’s Emmanuel Macron requested the phone call with Putin this week. It was the first time the two leaders had spoken in nearly three years. The long absence was due to Moscow claiming that Macron breached diplomatic protocol after the last phone call in 2022 by leaking details to the media. In any case, Putin showed magnanimity and a willingness to engage diplomatically by taking the call this week from Macron. The two leaders talked for over two hours.

Apart from Ukraine, another topic discussed was the outbreak of war between Israel and Iran, and the U.S. bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites. Macron agreed with Putin that Iran has the right to pursue civilian nuclear energy production, and both appealed for diplomacy to prevent escalation, according to the Kremlin’s statement on the phone conversation. Critics might note, however, that France, Britain, Germany, and the other European states have played a double game with Iran, undermining Iran’s legitimate rights under the Non-Proliferation Treaty and giving political cover for the unlawful Israeli and US aggression against Tehran. Therefore, Macron’s concern for peace in the Middle East sounds hollow, if not hypocritical.

The Ukraine conflict was also discussed. But here, there was no pretense of diplomatic accord. Macron urged Putin to “call a ceasefire as soon as possible” and to proceed with peace talks, said the Elysee Palace, as reported by French media. For his part, Putin rebuffed the trite talk. He reminded Macron of some necessary reality.

According to the Kremlin’s statement: “When discussing the situation surrounding Ukraine, Vladimir Putin reiterated that the conflict was a direct consequence of the policies pursued by the Western countries, which had for years been ignoring Russia’s security interests, creating an anti-Russia staging ground in the country, and condoning violations of rights of Ukraine’s Russian-speaking citizens, and at present were pursuing a policy of prolonging hostilities by supplying the Kiev regime with a variety of modern weaponry. Speaking about the prospects of a peaceful settlement, the president of Russia has confirmed Moscow’s stance on possible agreements: they are to be comprehensive and long-term, provide for the elimination of the root causes of the Ukraine crisis, and be based on the new territorial realities.”

In other words, Russia will end the conflict that Macron and other NATO powers started illegally, and the ending of it will be on Russia’s terms. Who does Macron think he is? Telling Russia to call a ceasefire as soon as possible? Earlier this year, in March, Macron gave a televised nationwide address declaring Russia to be an existential threat to Europe. He even made the madcap suggestion of France using its nuclear weapons to protect all of Europe. Such crazed talk by Macron is irresponsible and reprehensible. Macron, along with Britain’s Starmer and Germany’s Merz, are prolonging the more-than-three-year war in Ukraine by pledging more military aid to the NeoNazi Kiev regime.

That regime owes its existence to an illegal coup d’état that the Americans and Europeans orchestrated in 2014. The ongoing conflict, which has slaughtered more than one million Ukrainian soldiers and burdened Europe with huge immigration costs, is the responsibility of Macron and other NATO states. They are the instigators, not Russia. If Macron genuinely wants peace in Ukraine, there is a straightforward solution. Stop arming the NeoNazi regime and stop telling lies about “defending democracy in Ukraine” from alleged “Russian aggression.” Macron and his gang of NATO war criminals could end the bloodshed promptly if they dropped the evil charade.

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Replacing a 1,000-year old church with a newly invented one is an idea that always backfires.

No Weapons For Kiev Over Christian Church Persecution – US Congresswoman (RT)

Kiev’s persecution of the country’s largest Christian church is reason enough for Washington to halt military assistance to Ukraine, US Representative Anna Paulina Luna has said, pledging to personally oppose any future weapons shipments. The Florida Republican accused Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky of banning the Orthodox Church in a post on X on Friday, apparently referring to ongoing actions against the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC) – the largest religious organization in the country. “I can promise there will be no weapons funding for you,” wrote Luna, who serves on the House Foreign Affairs Committee. “We are not your piggy bank,” she added, calling on Zelensky to “negotiate for peace” instead.

Kiev has accused the UOC of maintaining ties with Moscow to justify its crackdown, even though the church declared its independence from the Russian Orthodox Church in May 2022. Responding to criticism in the comments under her post, Luna added, “The Ukraine bots are big mad about this one.” “All of a sudden these pro-war shills are religion experts and also telepathic, as they are CERTAIN not one Christian went to those churches to worship God. Imagine if we did that in the States. Hypocrites,” she said. According to Ukraine Oversight, an official US government portal tracking aid disbursements, Washington allocated a total of $182.8 billion in assistance to Ukraine between 2022 and the end of 2024.

In May, President Donald Trump expressed concern over what he described as billions of dollars being wasted on Ukraine aid. He said Congress was “very upset about it” and that lawmakers were demanding answers about how the money was being spent. Earlier this week, the Pentagon reportedly halted shipments of certain weapons and ammunition to Ukraine, citing the need to review remaining stockpiles as part of Trump’s ‘America First’ policy. Kiev’s persecution of the canonical Orthodox Church has received limited attention from US politicians and public figures. In late May, American journalist Tucker Carlson raised the issue in an interview with former Ukrainian MP Vadim Novinsky.

“I think very few Americans understand the degree to which the Ukrainian government under Zelensky has persecuted the Ukrainian Orthodox Church,” Carlson said during the broadcast. Years of state pressure on the church have included the arrests of clergymen and raids on monasteries, including a high-profile incident at the Kiev-Pechersk Lavra, where religious relics are kept. Last year, Zelensky signed legislation allowing the government to ban religious organizations deemed affiliated with so-called “aggressor” states, effectively targeting the UOC. Earlier this week, he also stripped the church’s senior bishop, Metropolitan Onufry, of his citizenship, citing his previously acquired Russian passport.

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“The Trump administration “was a notable absence from the fund’s backers in December..”

BlackRock Drops Ukraine Fund (RT)

US investment holding BlackRock stopped its search for investors to back a multi-billion dollar fund for rebuilding Ukraine earlier this year, Bloomberg has reported. Interest reportedly dropped after President Donald Trump retook the White House. The fund was set to be unveiled at the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Rome next week. It had been close to securing backing from firms supported by the governments of Germany, Italy, and Poland, the outlet wrote on Saturday, citing anonymous sources. Nevertheless, BlackRock reportedly decided to shelve the talks early this year “due to a lack of interest amid increased uncertainty over Ukraine’s future,” after the US changed its stance towards Kiev under the current administration.

Trump has long promised to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict and has sought avenues to reach a peace deal. He has also pushed European NATO allies to take over the burden of militarily supporting Ukraine. Earlier this week, Washington reportedly froze critical arms deliveries to Kiev to focus on replenishing its own stockpiles, although the US president has insisted some military aid still continues.The Trump administration “was a notable absence from the fund’s backers in December,” Bloomberg added. In March of last year, BlackRock vice chairman Philipp Hildebrand indicated that the Ukraine Development Fund was on track to secure at least $2.5 billion from private investors, countries and other grant lenders. A consortium of such investors could finance at least $15 billion towards reconstruction work in Ukraine, he said.

However, a BlackRock spokesperson indicated that the firm is no longer engaged in “any active mandate” with Kiev, having finished its pro-bono consulting work with the Ukraine Development Fund last year, Bloomberg wrote. The investment firm, which controls roughly $11.6 trillion in assets, owns substantial shares in military-industrial giants such as Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, and Northrop Grumman, among many others. Armaments produced by these firms, which are supplied to Kiev by its Western backers, have seen extensive use in the conflict. Moscow has repeatedly condemned foreign arms supplies to Kiev, arguing that they make pro-Ukrainian Western nations party to the conflict, which Russia views as a NATO proxy war. The Kremlin has stated that the recent freeze in US military aid to Kiev will accelerate settlement of the conflict.

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Every single day, the EU fights rebel countries.

Slovakia Blocks New EU Russia Sanctions (RT)

Slovakia has blocked the EU’s 18th round of sanctions targeting Russia for the second time due to concerns about the planned phase-out of Russian energy, Slovak media has reported, citing the Foreign Ministry. According to TASR news agency, Bratislava vetoed the package on Friday during a vote by the EU’s Committee of Permanent Representatives. The ministry said Slovakia will continue to oppose the package until it receives firm guarantees from Brussels that the phase-out will not harm its economy. The dispute centers on the European Commission’s RePowerEU plan, which aims to eliminate Russian energy imports by 2028. The plan is being discussed alongside the new sanctions package targeting Russia’s energy and financial sectors. While Brussels reportedly plans to present the phase-out as trade legislation – requiring only a qualified majority – Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico insists it should be treated as sanctions, requiring unanimous approval.

The Foreign Ministry said the Slovak authorities, energy companies, and industry leaders consider the phase-out “a major challenge for the competitiveness of the economy, especially from the perspective of energy prices and energy security.” It added that while Bratislava is open to further talks, the current negotiations have not addressed its “fundamental concerns and reservations.” It stressed the need for a plan that “benefits citizens and businesses.” A group of European Commission experts reportedly arrived in Slovakia this week for talks on energy. Fico previously warned that the phase-out would jeopardize energy security and raise prices. He also cited the risk of arbitration with Russia’s Gazprom if Slovakia breaks its long-term contract, which could cost up to €20 billion ($23 billion) in penalties.

Hungary also opposes the plan. Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said Budapest and Bratislava jointly blocked the package at last week’s foreign ministers’ meeting, warning that the energy cuts would “destroy Hungary’s energy security” and cause sharp price hikes. The European Commission unveiled its 18th sanctions package in early June, framing it as an attempt to pressure Russia to end the Ukraine conflict. The proposed measures include lowering the Russian oil price cap from $60 to $45 per barrel, banning the future use of the Nord Stream pipeline, restricting imports of refined products made from Russian crude, and sanctioning 77 vessels which the West claims are part of a so-called Russian ‘shadow fleet’. The bloc also extended existing sanctions for another six months earlier this week.

Moscow has condemned the sanctions, calling them illegal and counterproductive. Russian officials warned that the EU’s rejection of Russian energy will force it to rely on costlier imports or rerouted Russian energy via intermediaries, driving up prices.

Read more …

Israel’s idea of a ceasefire: “‘This is the time to finish the job, reach a comprehensive deal and ensure full Israeli victory.'”

Hamas’ Has ‘Positive Response’ To Ceasefire, Pressure Mounts On Netanyahu (ZH)

Hamas announced on Friday that it had delivered a “positive” response to the latest US-backed ceasefire and hostage release proposal for Gaza, stating it was ready to begin proximity talks with Israel “immediately” to resolve outstanding issues. But just like with prior instances of being near the “goal line” – a phrase often heard during the Biden administration – Hamas has put forth several key conditions which could prove serious obstacles toward finalizing a deal. Still, global media is saying this is the closest the warring parties have been to reaching an agreement in a long time. Israeli media, citing one mediation source, has said that one of Hamas’s main demands is clearer assurances about what happens if negotiations on a permanent ceasefire are not concluded by the end of the proposed 60-day truce.

The militant group’s official statement said, “The movement has delivered its response to the brotherly mediators, which was characterized by a positive spirit.” “Hamas is fully prepared, with all seriousness, to immediately enter a new round of negotiations on the mechanism for implementing this framework,” it added. The current draft presented to Hamas says the ceasefire could be extended as long as both sides are negotiating in good faith, but Hamas reportedly wants that clause removed, fearing it gives Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu an opening to resume military action. This is precisely what ensued in March when a previous deal unraveled. Instead, Hamas is pushing for language that guarantees negotiations on a permanent ceasefire will continue until a final agreement is reached, and this is something which Israel has resisted.

Meanwhile, pressure on Netanyahu continues to grow domestically, as The Times of Israel details: “Tens of thousands of Israelis are set to join hostage families at mass rallies on Saturday night to urge the government to reach a deal that will free all the remaining captives held in Gaza after Israel and Hamas accepted the outlines of a US truce deal. The rallies will be held as the security cabinet gathers to discuss Hamas’s response to the emerging ceasefire-hostage deal, ahead of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s trip to the White House on Monday. The Hostages and Missing Families Forum demanded a comprehensive deal to end the war and release the remaining 50 hostages, at least 28 of whom are dead, even as Israeli officials are reportedly working to see which living hostages to prioritize in the partial, phased release under discussion.”

Prior statements of Israeli leaders have presented a grim outlook, with the possibility that less than twenty captives taken on Oct.7, 2023 might still be alive. The Hostages and Missing Families Forum said in its official statement, “Amid reports of a partial deal, and the prime minister’s trip to the United States, hostage families invite Israelis of all stripes to come to Hostages Square and join them in a clear call: ‘This is the time to finish the job, reach a comprehensive deal and ensure full Israeli victory.'”

Read more …

Icebreakers “R” Us.

US Plans Massive Arctic Investment (RT)

The US plans to invest billions in expanding its icebreaker fleet for which funding was included in President Donald Trump’s budget bill approved by Congress on Thursday. Trump previously admitted that the US lags behind Russia, which has the world’s largest and most advanced fleet of ice-capable vessels. Washington has of late sought to increase its influence in the Arctic. Vice President J.D. Vance stated in March that the government needs to “ensure that America is leading” in the region due to the presence of Russia and China. Trump’s so-called ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ includes funding through 2029 for ice-capable vessels.

The US Coast Guard will receive nearly $25 billion to buy 16 new icebreakers and ten light and medium icebreaking cutters, among other equipment, according to Senator Dan Sullivan from Alaska. Sullivan described the allocation as the largest investment in Coast Guard history and a “game-changer.” The US currently operates only two functional polar-class icebreakers, whereas Russia maintains a fleet of over 50, including several nuclear-powered ships. In 2022, NATO countries had 47 icebreakers in total. Eight countries have territory that extends into the Arctic: Russia, the US, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden – all but Russia are NATO members.

Trump has also revived his interest in Greenland, the vast resource-rich Arctic territory governed by Denmark. He has refused to rule out acquiring the island by force. As warming temperatures make the Arctic more accessible, the region’s potential for resource exploitation and emerging shipping lanes has drawn heightened attention from global powers. The largest portion of the Arctic region lies within Russian territory. In March, President Vladimir Putin called the Arctic a zone of “enormous potential” for trade and development but warned that geopolitical rivalry was intensifying.

Read more …

“The plans of more than 500,000 people have been disrupted because of the strike in France, which involved 272 employees of the industry..”

Head of Ryanair Airline Calls Ursula Von Der Leyen ‘Useless Politician’ (Sp.)

Ryanair said on Thursday that it was forced to cancel 170 flights, disrupting over 30,000 passengers, due to the French unions’ strike on Thursday and Friday. Ryanair’s chief executive officer Michael O’Leary told Politico on Friday that he had to cancel “400 flights and 70,000 passengers” and that “360, or 90 percent of those flights, would operate if the Commission protected the overflights as Spain, Italy and Greece do during air traffic control strikes.” Several airlines have accused France of failing to protect airlines during the protest action, while O’Leary criticized European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

Almost 1,000 flights were canceled in France on Friday: half at Nice airport, 40 percent at Paris airports, and 30 percent at airports in Lyon, Marseille, Montpellier, Ajaccio, Bastia, Calvi and Figari due to the air traffic controllers’ strike. On Thursday, 933 flights were cancelled. “Ursula von der Leyen, being the useless politician that she is, would rather sit in her office in Brussels, pontificating about Palestine or US trade agreements or anything else. Anything but take any effective action to protect the flights of holidaymakers,” O’Leary said.

The plans of more than 500,000 people have been disrupted because of the strike in France, which involved 272 employees of the industry, Minister of Transport Philippe Tabarot said on Friday. Tabarot said on Thursday that losses related to the strike for airlines, including the country’s main carrier Air France, could amount to millions of euros. Last week, two French air traffic controllers’ unions, USAC-CGT and UNSA-ICNA, representing over 30 percent of the industry’s employees, called for protest action on July 3-4, demanding better working conditions, an end to structural staff shortages, failed technical projects and “toxic management.” The strike came as the French were preparing to go on summer school holidays.

Read more …

“What was marketed as a smooth transition toward renewable energy has turned into a forced green agenda, with no viable alternatives and little regard for its impact on competitiveness, system stability, or citizens’ well-being.”

Lights Out, Europe: The Cost of Brussels’ Energy Fantasy (Villamor)

Spain’s leading energy companies—Iberdrola, Endesa, and EDP—remain stunned. After the nationwide blackout that cut power across Spain on April 28, the government has yet to provide a clear explanation or take technical responsibility. The companies, represented by the employers’ association Aelec, have denounced “surprising omissions” in the official investigation. They demand that the extreme voltage spikes recorded in the days leading up to the collapse be included in the analysis. They have criticized the preliminary report from ENTSO-E—the European network of electricity operators—for claiming that “the system was operating normally” just seconds before the failure. Meanwhile, severe voltage swings were recorded, going beyond safety limits and triggering automatic shutdowns of high-voltage substations and key refineries.

This episode is far more than an isolated incident. It is a metaphor for the erratic direction taken by the European Union’s energy policy. In the name of climate change, Brussels has embarked on a radical overhaul of its energy model driven not by technical or economic realities, but by an ideological agenda imposed by political and bureaucratic elites. What was marketed as a smooth transition toward renewable energy has turned into a forced green agenda, with no viable alternatives and little regard for its impact on competitiveness, system stability, or citizens’ well-being.

At the root of this drift lies the REPowerEU plan, launched after the start of the war in Ukraine with the stated aim of “fully decoupling” Europe from Russian energy. What initially appeared to be a justified geostrategic measure quickly became, in the hands of the European Commission, a pretext to push through renewable energies at any cost. This led to a rushed and uneven transition, with citizens and businesses footing the bill. This leap into the void has destabilized key sectors such as agriculture, transport, and industry, forcing them to absorb rising costs without receiving real technological upgrades. Countries like Germany, which shut down their nuclear plants out of political conviction, have now had to reopen coal-fired stations in a contradictory reversal.

Meanwhile, state propaganda continues to promote green energy self-sufficiency, while households face record electricity bills and companies lose competitiveness. The structural failures of the European power grid are becoming increasingly evident. The continental grid was designed for stable and predictable hydro, gas, and nuclear sources. The mass introduction of intermittent sources like wind and solar makes imbalances difficult to manage: without wind or sun, generation collapses; with too much, the grid becomes dangerously overloaded.

On April 28th, the Iberian Peninsula experienced those consequences firsthand. Abnormal voltage levels were detected in several substations throughout the morning. To grasp the gravity: a “voltage oscillation” involves a sudden and significant fluctuation in the grid’s voltage, which can damage equipment, trigger automatic disconnections, or, in extreme cases, cause a total blackout. At the Lancha substation, voltage reached nearly 250 kV on a line rated for 220. Another line, rated at 400 kV, surpassed 470 kV just before the collapse. According to Aelec, these anomalies began as early as 10:00 a.m. While a sudden drop of 2,200 MW in generation has been cited as the trigger, the system is theoretically built to withstand a loss of up to 3,000 MW without shutting down. This was not a coincidental failure—it was a built-in weakness.

Beyond technical and political issues, the forced energy transition takes a human toll. European households are paying more for electricity, hitting middle- and lower-income families especially hard. Electrification of transport, promoted without adequate foresight, is raising the cost of mobility due to a lack of reliable charging infrastructure. Farmers and truckers, already squeezed by unmanageable climate regulations, face growing expenses while being pressured to make investments they cannot afford. Moreover, blackouts are no minor issue: their impact ranges from multimillion-euro industrial losses to the paralysis of hospitals, schools, and transport networks. In Spain, the outage even cost five people their lives. An energy model that cannot ensure a steady supply threatens the economy and public safety.

Read more …

 

 

 

 

Fish
https://twitter.com/IndianaGPA/status/1941261367207657862

Jeep

Eagle

School
https://twitter.com/Hoang_HQ/status/1941183156998242700

Octo
https://twitter.com/wmhuo168/status/1941351218544246839

Eve

 

 

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Jul 082023
 
 July 8, 2023  Posted by at 5:28 pm Finance Tagged with: , , , , , ,  5 Responses »


Andy Warhol Shot Sage Blue Marilyn 1964 (must read article!)

 

 

An article at RT made me realize today – all the more- how out of touch with reality the “west” is. It talks about how Joe Biden warns Xi Jinping about economic consequences of China’s alliance with Russia. Thing is, that ship has long sailed. And Xi, even if he would have wanted to -there are no signs of that-, cannot turn it around, It has gained “momentum”.

And it’s “Joe Biden”s own doing. Xi and Putin would have happily continued using the USD in their international trade. But the sanctions made that impossible. And then it took off. From BRICS(+) to SCO to INSTC, various groups that had been formed, now found a reason to exist and flourish. And there’s nothing Xi can do to stop that process, even if he would want to. it’s bigger than him, and China. But even then, why would he?

Biden Told China’s Xi To ‘Be Careful’ After Putin Meeting

US President Joe Biden called on his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping ‘to be careful’ after Xi visited Moscow back in March, the American leader has told CNN. In extracts from the interview released on Saturday, Biden said he had highlighted what he called the Asian giant’s dependence on European and US investments.“I said: This is not a threat. This is an observation,” Biden told CNN. “Since Russia went into Ukraine, 600 American corporations have pulled out of Russia. And you have told me that your economy depends on investment from Europe and the United States. And be careful. Be careful,” he added.

Following their Moscow talks, Putin and Xi signed documents on deepening the Russian-Chinese strategic partnership and economic cooperation. Both governments emphasized their readiness to work towards a trade volume of $200 billion or higher, with national currencies increasingly being used in a bid to de-dollarize trade. The conflict in Ukraine was discussed during the Moscow visit as well, with China maintaining its neutral position. Beijing has repeatedly criticized the West’s “abuse” of unilateral economic sanctions and has made efforts toward a peaceful resolution in Ukraine, proposing a twelve-point peace plan. In May, a Chinese special envoy visited several countries, including Russia and Ukraine, in an effort to broker an end to the conflict.

Biden’s CNN interview comes as US relations with China are far from calm, with Taiwan and security concerns in the Asia-Pacific region among the key issues exacerbating strained ties. President Biden himself provoked a diplomatic incident in June, when he called his Chinese counterpart a “dictator” during a speech. While the US president dismissed concerns that his comment could hinder efforts to improve relations, the Chinese embassy issued a formal protest in response, and foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning denounced the remark as an “open political provocation.”

It makes no difference anymore what Biden, or any American/western person says. The sanctions have introduced the rest of the world to a feeling, a system, of freedom. And not even Xi can halt that. He could hinder it a bit, sure, but why would he? If the “global globe” can’t use the yuan in trade, they’ll switch to the rupee, which India has loudly announced as being ready for the role. Or the new gold backed currency BRICS/SCO is touting.

Whichever choice they arrive upon, Biden threatening Xi can only backfire. China already has a huge part of the world population, BRICS/SCO is much bigger than that, in many ways. And they sense/smell freedom. Xi would be crazy to move against that. And why would he? Because Biden threatens to take away some exports from him?

Xi doesn’t need the US or EU. He knows that because the “collective west’s” anti-Russia sanctions have only made Russia stronger. And the “collective west” is incapable of beating Russia on the battlefield. So what does Xi have to fear?

We live in a new world, a greatly changed one. The last place where you would find out about that is the west, where we live. Where all media and politicians carry on as if nothing has changed. We can’t know the truth about Trump, or about Covid, or about Ukraine, and now we can’t know how our position has changed in global power politics. They want us to believe we’re still no. 1. Well, they are not, and we are not. Get used to it. Get used to being one power in a world with multiple powers. Multipolar.

We cannot fight the global momentum we ourselves unleashed.

 

 

 

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Jun 212014
 
 June 21, 2014  Posted by at 1:59 pm Finance Tagged with: , , ,  4 Responses »


Tesla Studios Engineering class, Wanganui Technical College, New Zealand Sep 26 1916

Today, we give you another little gem from Nelson Lebo, our dear friend in Wanganui, New Zealand, who equates the inertia in debt (economy) with that of heat (climate), a smart idea that makes a lot of – explanatory – sense. But first, here’s a picture of Nicole and I back in April 2012 (that’s a kitten named Billy T I’m holding in my arms) at the Lebo home that Nelson restored from basically a bare skeleton and which he talks about in this article, in Castle Cliff, one on New Zealand’s poorest neighborhoods. The house is right by a beach with black volcanic sand and – I kid you not – a local seal slash resident beachmaster who was keeping watch lying on top of these huge pieces of eucalyptus driftwood.

Here’s Nelson:

Nelson Lebo: Today is the winter solstice in the southern hemisphere – “the shortest day of the year.” This weekend marks the time of year when hours of daylight are shortest and hours of darkness are longest. For a home like ours that is powered mostly by sunlight energy, this is not good news. But every cloud has a silver lining. Here’s what I mean.

Although the end of June marks the time when hours of daylight are shortest, it is not necessarily the coldest time of year – that comes later. In other words, as June turns to July and temperatures drop on average, the days actually get longer. This may sound counterintuitive: more sun but colder. What’s up with that?

It all has to do with lag time, or what may also be called thermal momentum or seasonal inertia. Put simply, there is a delay in the system between energy input (amount of sunlight) and how we experience that energy (air temperature).

Most of the seasonal delay is influenced by large bodies of water: oceans, seas, very big lakes. These large bodies of water are the thermal mass of the planet – they absorb heat slowly and release it slowly. Sunlight energy is loaded into the world’s waters only for it to be released at a later date.

On a very large scale, most climate scientists say that much of the excess heat energy that the Earth is currently absorbing is going into the world’s oceans. They refer to oceans as “heat sinks.” The major concern with this situation is that the ‘sinks’ will become ‘sources’ in the future. In other words, the chickens (massive amounts of heat energy) will come home to roost (wreak havoc on us with extreme weather events).

While this energy is being stored in the oceans everything appears to us to be OK. It is a lot like running up a large debt. I suspect there were few complaints in Wanganui, New Zealand, while council was running up our current debt while holding rates artificially low. Only now do we hear complaints.

This is the same strategy that U.S. President Bush (the second) used with the Iraq War. He did not tax Americans to pay for the war, but put it on the national credit card. There were few complaints at the time, but now after a trillion dollars we hear complaints about the “unsustainable levels of federal debt” in America.

Similarly, climate scientists continue to warn of “unsustainable levels of carbon debt,” but I suspect more and more people will echo them in the future, especially because another and perhaps more ominous delay is also built into the climate system.

Once fossil fuels are burned the carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere for decades causing more and more warming. Many scientists say that even if we stopped burning all coal, oil and gas today that we would continue to experience the effects for the better part of most Wanganui Chronicle readers’ lifetimes.

In the same way, even if WDC balanced the city’s budget next year we will all still be paying for debts racked up in the past and the accrued interest for years to come.

OK, now for the silver lining … for our house anyway. Heading into July and through August, as temperatures remain low, the increasing minutes of sunlight every day make our solar home that much warmer. Additionally, we use a ‘delay system’ inside our home to capture the daytime warmth and release it at night.

This delay is, of course, thermal mass and it acts just like the Tasman Sea outside our front door: absorbing heat slowly when it is in abundance and releasing it slowly when it is in deficit.

Understanding complex systems and their associated delays, oscillations, changes and feedback loops helps us to ‘see’ into the future and plan accordingly. This way of seeing the world is called “systems thinking,” and is at the heart of eco-design. It has helped us design and renovate an inefficient old villa into a low-energy eco-home, and it has the potential for humanity to come to grips with global climate change and unsustainable debt.

Human beings are notoriously bad at looking toward the future and planning ahead. Systems thinking is a tool to help us all look toward an increasingly volatile and indebted future, ask if it is the future we want for our children, and then decide whether we have the courage to do anything about it today.

Update: Nelson sent me a picture of Billy T. and her little sister:

Global Drag Threatens Worst US Export Performance In 60 Years (Wiley)

Ever since an über-strong U.S. dollar crushed the export sector in the mid-1980s, the U.S. economy hasn’t looked quite the same. Exports picked up towards the end of the decade, helped along by the G-7’s historic 1985 powwow at New York’s Plaza Hotel, which led to a coordinated effort to slam back the dollar. Nonetheless, some export industries never fully recovered. Fast forward to the present, and export performance may soon be as noteworthy as it was 30 years ago. Risks to the global economy (and exports) include turmoil in oil-producing nations, credit markets that are teetering in China and comatose in Europe, and the backside of Japan’s April sales tax hike. Worse still, export growth already lags behind every one of the past ten expansions, even the 1980s, thanks to a drop in the first quarter:

exports1

The chart shows that exports are no longer distinct from other parts of the economy (nearly all of them) that haven’t measured up to a “normal,” credit-infused, post-World War 2 business cycle. Together with emerging global risks, it begs the question of whether sagging exports can drag the U.S. into recession. We think it’s too early to make that call [..] Nonetheless, export performance bears watching, and especially as the first quarter’s result mirrored a big drop in corporate profits. Falling export volumes surely contributed to the weak profits result. Moreover, profits are an excellent leading indicator, as shown below:

exports2

Should exports and profits weaken further, that would cause us to reevaluate risks in both financial markets and the economy. Extra chart (free) Some readers may prefer this version of the export chart, with each cycle labeled:

exports3

Read more …

“The sooner and more predictably the Fed exits its extraordinary monetary accommodation, the sooner businesses can get back to business and labor can get back to work.”

The Asset-Rich, Income-Poor Economy (WSJ)

“Balance-sheet wealth is sustainable only when it comes from earned success, not government fiat,” is the ugly truth that former Fed governor Kevin Warsh (amazing what truths come out after their terms are up) and hedge fund billionaire Stan Druckenmiller.

Economist Richard Koo diagnosed Japan’s crash in the early 1990s and subsequent two decades of economic malaise as a “balance-sheet recession.” That conclusion wasn’t lost on the Federal Reserve during the financial crisis of 2008-09. The Fed engineered an emergency response to craft what can best be described as a balance-sheet recovery. At its policy meeting earlier this week, the Fed made clear that it’s scarred, if no longer scared, by the crisis. Extraordinarily loose monetary policy will continue in force. While the Fed’s monthly asset purchases will decline, short-term interest rates will remain pinned near zero. And long-term rates need not move higher—the Fed assures us—even with improving inflation dynamics, credit markets priced-for-perfection, and stock prices at record levels. The aggregate wealth of U.S. households, including stocks and real-estate holdings, just hit a new high of $81.8 trillion.

That’s more than $26 trillion in wealth added since 2009. No wonder most on Wall Street applaud the Fed’s unrelenting balance-sheet recovery strategy. It’s great news for those households and businesses with large asset holdings, high risk tolerances and easy access to credit. Yet it provides little solace for families and small businesses that must rely on their income statements to pay the bills. About half of American households do not own any stocks and more than one-third don’t own a residence. Never mind the retirees who are straining to make the most of their golden years on bond returns. The Fed’s extraordinary tools are far more potent in goosing balance-sheet wealth than spurring real income growth. The most recent employment report reveals the troubling story for Main Street. While 217,000 jobs were created in May, incomes for most Americans remain under stress, with only modest improvements in hours worked and average hourly earnings.

It’s taken a full 76 months for the number of people working to get back to its previous peak, a discomfiting postwar record. Unfortunately, during the same period the U.S. working-age population increased by more than 15 million people. That’s why the share of the working-age population out of work is now at a 36-year high. There are now more Americans on disability insurance than are working in construction and education, combined. Meanwhile, corporate chieftains rationally choose financial engineering—debt-financed share buybacks, for example—over capital investment in property, plants and equipment. Financial markets reward shareholder activism. Institutional investors extend their risk parameters to beat their benchmarks. And retail investors belatedly participate in the rising asset-price environment. All of this lifts balance-sheet wealth, at least for a while. But real economic growth—averaging just a bit above 2% for the fifth year in a row—remains sorely lacking. [..]

Balance-sheet wealth is sustainable only when it comes from earned success, not government fiat. Wealth creation comes from strong, sustainable growth that turns a proper mix of labor, capital and know-how into productivity, productivity into labor income, income into savings, savings into capital, capital into investment, and investment into asset appreciation. The country needs an exit from the 2% growth trap. There are no short-cuts through Fed-engineered balance-sheet wealth creation. The sooner and more predictably the Fed exits its extraordinary monetary accommodation, the sooner businesses can get back to business and labor can get back to work.

Read more …

“Each of the last five great merger waves on record” – going back more than 125 years – “ended with a precipitous decline in equity prices”

Stocks Are ‘Dangerously Overvalued,’ M&A Deals Suggest (MarketWatch)

Here’s one sign a significant stock market decline might occur sooner rather than later: the rapid acceleration of recent merger and acquisition activity. This past week saw news of another big deal, led by medical-device maker Medtronic’s announcement of its $43 billion bid to acquire rival Covidien. At the current pace, M&A deals could reach $3.51 trillion this year, the most since 2007, according to data provider Dealogic. It wasn’t a fluke that a surge in M&A activity coincided with that year’s market top, according to Matthew Rhodes-Kropf, a professor at Harvard Business School and an expert in the field. “Each of the last five great merger waves on record” – going back more than 125 years – “ended with a precipitous decline in equity prices”, he says.

Some experts have found that merger activity surges when stocks are richly priced, at least in part because companies can use their inflated shares to pursue acquisitions. “The marked increase in recent M&A activity is one more piece of evidence that the market is dangerously overvalued,” says Dennis Mueller, an emeritus economics professor at the University of Vienna in Austria who has studied M&A cycles in the U.S. as well as overseas. Of course, shareholders of the company being acquired rarely complain, since the acquisition price usually represents a huge premium. Covidien’s stock this past week surged as much as 29%, compared with where it closed the prior week, for example.

Does the recent M&A boom mean you should immediately get out of stocks? Not necessarily, since the volume of M&A activity isn’t an exact market-timing tool. Mueller says it’s possible that the market is at the beginning of a long M&A boom that could last a few more years. Rhodes-Kropf agrees that the recent M&A surge doesn’t necessarily mean a bear market is imminent. “Everyone tends to call the bubble too soon,” he says, adding that his hunch is that this merger trend could very well last a while longer.

Read more …

It’s Never Different This Time – 1987 or 2014 (Zero Hedge)

While the price analogs of the last few year’s exuberance in US equity markets are enough to worry all but the most systemically bullish “believer”; we suspect the following article from the LA Times In the Spring of 1987 will raise a few hairs on the back of the neck of perpetually optimistic extrapolator…

It’s never different this time..

“One of the largest bullish factors is burgeoning worldwide liquidity, thanks to expansive monetary policies by central banks. That has helped fuel a surge of foreign investing that could propel US stocks higher, regardless of what happens to the American economy, some analysts say… Low interest rates also help stocks by making Treasury securities, certificates of deposit and other interest-paying investments less attractive. The sluggish economy, meanwhile, keeps the Federal Reserve from driving up interest rates and prevents inflation from overheating… Also, the sluggish economy–by keeping manufacturing rates low–discourages money from flowing out of financial assets into such investments as factories and machinery.”
– LA Times, March 8, 1987; a few months before the October 1987 crash

Read that again!!

Never different.

Read more …

I’ve said this often about people just like Yellen, especially Bernanke. And I’ve always been hesitant to declare them incompetent; they have access to far more data than we do, and they have tons of smart people working for them.

Janet Yellen: Either Lying or Incompetent (Phoenix)

Janet Yellen just cemented her status as the third member of the unholy triumvirate of Fed Presidents: Greenspan, Bernanke, and now Yellen. Greenspan was so afraid of deflation that he hired Bernanke (an alleged deflation expert) in the early 2000s. Between the two of them, they created bubbles in virtually every asset class on the planet. Deflation did hit for a total 12-14 months (late 2007-early 2009). It was enough to terrify Bernanke to the point that he spent well over $3 trillion (an amount larger than all but a handful of countries’ GDPs), cut interest rates to zero (punishing savers) and generally destroyed the US economy… all in the quest of propping up a few crony capitalist banks that were sitting on several hundred trillion dollars’ worth of derivatives trades. Yellen took over the Fed in early 2014 and has since proven herself to be just as misguided or dishonest as Bernanke was. Among other things…

• She claims there are no signs of stocks being overvalued, despite the fact that by virtually every metric in existence the market is SEVERELY overvalued.

• She first claimed inflation was too low, and now claims that rising prices are just “noise” while meat prices hit record highs, gas prices hit their highest levels since 2008, home prices are as unaffordable as they were in 2005-2006, healthcare costs are up double digits and energy prices are rising.

It’s an astounding series of comments, coming from the woman in charge of US monetary policy. What’s even more astounding is that it appears Yellen actually believes this stuff, which indicates that she either A) doesn’t read the news or look at price charts for items or B) has no idea how to interpret data or C) is a liar. This is the same story we had with Bernanke and Greenspan, both of whom oversaw epic meltdowns in the financial system. Yellen will be no different.

Read more …

” … the more they print, the more inequality there is, the weaker the economy will become”

Marc Faber: Fed Policies Have Been A ‘Catastrophe’ (CNBC)

The Federal Reserve [announced] another $10 billion worth of tapering on Wednesday, reducing the size of its monthly asset purchase program to $35 billion, from $85 billion at the height of the program. And though the hyper inflation many warned would be a consequence of its stimulative policies has not yet reared its head, Fed skeptics like Marc Faber still have strong words for the central bank. “It’s a catastrophe,” Faber said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Futures Now.” “What the Fed has done is to lift asset prices, and the cost of living. In the meantime, as the cost of living increases, are higher than the wage increases, the typical American household income is going down in real terms.”

Faber, editor of the “Gloom, Boom & Doom Report,” consequently believes that rising American inequality is a result of the Fed’s actions. “So the Fed is boosting asset prices. It leads to less affordability, people can’t buy their homes anymore in the lower income group. Except, of course, the well-to-do people, they can buy homes because their asset prices have gone up and they own the assets,” Faber said. “And so the more they print, the more inequality there is, the weaker the economy will become.”

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The Shortest Economics Textbook Ever (Zero Hedge)

1. 95% of economics is common sense You don’t need a degree to understand it. We’ve got this profession wrong; a lot of professional economists think what they do is too difficult for ordinary people. You’d be surprised how often these people are stupid enough to say things, at least in private, like ‘you wouldn’t understand what I do even if I explained it to you’. If you cannot explain it to other people, you have the problem.

2. Economics is not a science Despite what the experts want you to believe, there is more than one way of ‘doing’ economics People have been led to believe that, like physics or chemistry, economics is a ‘science’, in which there is only one correct answer to everything; thus non-experts should simply accept the ‘professional consensus’ and stop thinking about it.

3. Economics is politics Economic arguments are often justification for what politicians want to do anyway Economics is a political argument. It is not – and can never be – a science. Behind every economic policy and corporate action that affect our lives – the minimum wage, outsourcing, social security, food safety, pensions and whatnot – lies some economic theory that either has inspired those actions or, more frequently, is providing justification of what those in power want to do anyway.

4. Never trust an economist It is one thing not to foresee the financial crisis; it’s another not to have changed anything since. Most economists were caught completely by surprise by the 2008 global financial crisis. Not only that, they have not been able to come up with decent solutions to the ongoing aftermaths of that crisis. Given all this, economics seems to suffer from a serious case of megalomania. The financial crisis has been a brutal reminder that we cannot leave our economy to professional economists and other ‘technocrats’. We should all get involved in its management – as active economic citizens.

5. We have to reclaim economics for the people It’s too important to be left to the experts alone. You should be willing to challenge professional economists (and, yes, that includes me). They do not have a monopoly over the truth, even when it comes to economic matters. Like many other things in life – learning to ride a bicycle, learning a new language, or learning to use your new tablet computer – being an active economic citizen gets easier over time, once you overcome the initial difficulties and keep practicing it. Unless you are willing and able to challenge the professionals, challenge the experts, what’s the point of having a democracy?

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13 Facts They Don’t Tell You About Economics (Zero Hedge)

Yesterday, Ha-Joon Chang exposed the shortest economics textbook ever. Today the Cambridge University Economics professor uncovers everything you didn’t know about economics (in 13 simple points)…

1. Economics Was Originally Called ‘Political Economy’ – Economics is politics and it can never be a science. Yet the dominant neoclassical school of economics succeeded in changing the name of the discipline from the traditional ‘political economy’ to ‘economics’ at the turn of the 20th Century. The Neoclassical school wanted economics to become a pure science, shorn of political (and thus ethical) dimensions that involve subjective value judgments. This change was a political move in and of itself.

2. The Nobel Prize In Economics Is Not A Real Nobel Prize – Unlike the original Nobel Prizes (Physics, Chemistry, Physiology, Medicine, Literature and Peace), established by the Swedish industrialist Alfred Nobel at the end of the nineteenth century, the economics prize was established by the Swedish central bank (Sveriges Riksbank) in 1968 and is thus officially called the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel. Members of the Nobel family are known to have criticized the Swedish central bank for giving prizes to free-market economists of whom their ancestor would have disapproved.

7. Capitalism Did Best Between The 1950s And The 1970s, An Era Of High Regulation And High Taxes – Despite what we hear these days about the detrimental economic effects of high taxes and strong government regulation, the advanced capitalist economies grew the fastest between the 1950s and the 1970s, when there were a lot of regulations and high taxes.Between 1950 and 1973, per capita income in Western Europe grew at an astonishing rate of 4.1% per year. Japan grew even faster at 8.1%, starting off the chain of ‘economic miracles’ in East Asia in the next half a century. Even the US, the slowest-growing economy in the rich world at the time, grew at an unprecedented rate of 2.5%. Per capita income for these economies collectively have since then managed to grow at only 1.8% per year between 1980 and 2010, when they cut taxes for the rich and deregulated their economies.

13. Most Poor People Don’t Live In Poor Countries – Currently, around 1.4billion people – or about one in five people in the world – live with less than $1.25 per day, which is the international poverty line (below which survival itself becomes a challenge). But most poor people do not live in poor countries. Over 70% of people in absolute poverty actually live in middle-income countries. As of the mid-2000’s, over 170 million people in China (around 13% of its population) and 450 million people in India (around 42% of its population) lived with incomes below the international poverty line. These show the enormity of challenges that the two most populous countries face.

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Spot The Oxymoron: “Growth Down, Optimism Up” (Simon Black)

With a nod to the absurd, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen freely admitted earlier this week that the Fed really has no idea what’s going to happen to the economy. Bear in mind this is the person who controls interest rates in the United States, effectively setting the ‘price of money’ for the most widely used currency in the world. This is key– because the price of money (interest rates) influence the prices of so many other things. Real estate. Business investment. Automobile sales. Agricultural commodity prices. Oil prices. Etc. Of course, there’s a knock-on effect. Consider, for example, how many products and services are influenced by the price of oil… fertilizers, plastics, shipping, etc. And then how many products and services are influenced by the price of shipping… like everything in the world that’s imported/exported. So in setting the price of money, Ms. Yellen is influencing the price of just about everything.

Yet she and her fellow members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) admittedly don’t have a clue where the economy’s going. This stands in stark contrast to what investors are used to. Back in the 90s, Fortune put former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan on the cover with a headline– “It’s HIS economy, stupid”. That’s how clear it was back then. Greenspan was the benevolent wizard… the ‘maestro’ in masterful command pulling the strings of the largest economy in the world. And investors had all the [misplaced] confidence in the world in this arrangement. So you’d think that with such a demonstration of ignorance that investors would be heading for the hills, right? Not so. The big banks and institutional investors (who appointed most of the FOMC members to begin with) rewarded the Fed’s stunning admission and lack of foresight with… record high stock prices.

If I could quote our long-lost Billy Mays– BUT WAIT, THERE’S MORE! The Fed also reduced its GDP growth forecasts for the US economy from 2.9% to 2.2%. In case you’re not too fast on the ‘calc’ icon, that’s a 24% proportional reduction in GDP growth. Not exactly a drop in the bucket. AND, of course, there’s the recent data that inflation has ticked up, even according to their own official numbers. Of course Ms. Yellen proceeded to downplay the inflation, writing it off as ‘noise’. So this morning I received yet another analysis from a large private bank I deal with; the report’s headline– FED: Growth down, optimism up. Hmmm. Spot the oxymoron here (OK fine, paradox). Growth is down. Inflation is up. The grand wizards don’t have a clue. Yet people are excited about this?

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Yay! Bank run!

Bank Run Prompts Bulgarian Central Bank To Seize Control (Reuters)

A run on Corporate Commercial Bank (Corpbank) prompted Bulgaria’s central bank to take control of the country’s fourth-largest lender on Friday and its governor appealed to depositors to stay calm. The Bulgarian National Bank (BNB) said it would handle Corpbank’s operations for three months and removed its management and supervisory board after the run, which was sparked by media reports of shady deals involving the bank. The BNB said it acted after Corpbank said on Friday morning it had stopped all payments and bank operations due to a liquidity drain. The central bank said Corpbank was not bankrupt and other lenders in the country were safe from the effects. “As you know, there has been a lot of talk about the bank and one of its shareholders, which triggered bank runs,” central bank governor Ivan Iskrov said at a news conference. “It is very important to be very careful when we talk about banks. Let’s not tear down our house alone unnecessarily.”

“Let me make this very clear. Corporate Commercial Bank is not a bankrupt bank. We are acting swiftly to avoid a bankruptcy,” said Iskrov. He declined to give further details of the bank’s problems and said supervisors would carry out a full audit of its books. The central bank action did not stop dozens of people from queuing outside the main office of the bank in the capital Sofia on Friday, and credit default swaps on the country’s debt hit a six-month high on fears of contagion. Sofia’s blue-chip shares index closed at its lowest level since February. The central bank blocked depositors from withdrawing cash after it took control. “We are worried, because my husband and I have deposits there in euros and in U.S. dollars,” said Lilia Polova, editor at a lifestyle magazine. “These are our family savings. He was reading newspapers and was asking me to take our money out of there … but I waited.”

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