Candace
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“The Dwarves dug too greedily and too deep. You know what they awoke in the darkness of Khazad-dum… shadow and flame.” from Tolkien’s “Lord of the Rings”
Cutting so deep into tropical forrests, I wonder if we will find any new plagues there.
LD & JB,
I think we’d all like to know how far the elevator is going to fall in our relative locations. It’s like predicting what the weather will be like in your home town on August 2, 2024 using a climate model. Everyone seems to be able to agree that the global average temperature will be higher and the types and severity of weather patterns will be different, but how different and where will be hard to predict.
As for my graphs, sorry to be so remedial. I just use what’s handy.
My understanding is that Greer’s long descent does not look like this
–__
–__
–__
–__
–__
–__
–__
–__
— -__
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but looks more like this-__
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-/. ____
__—-__
|__—–_____
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|_____________________Not a slow steady decline, but some big cliffs, with smaller cliffs, with smaller recoveries and some periods of stability. These drops, cliffs, recovery and stability will happen in different degrees in different places at different times. So for purely for illustration…
Where I live…. Where Greer lives…
1980. __/– -_
2000. -/_ __
2020. | —-
2040. | ^—–_/_^______
2060. ^–_
2080. — ________. (reached long stasis in 2040)Different places will have forces that may mitigate decline in some instances, i.e. I live in a place where rich people (and poor people) will spend large sums of money for medical care, JMG lives in a place that has already experienced major economic contraction, but still has infrastructure that links it to other regions. When resources become so scarce that certain medical procedures won’t be available to anyone, my area is likely to see a strong contraction, JMGs area may even experience some growth, due to certain things being redeveloped in the US because it is too expensive to ship things from over seas. All areas are likely to experience various types of social disruption as well depending on how vulnerable they are to international, national, and regional changes. A populist demagogue might make headway in Minnesota, but Maryland might stay fiercely independent of group movements.
That’s my understanding at any rate.
Candace@ Otto Matic
The problem I see with hating the Greek people for their response to the crisis as compared to Iceland, is that they are two different places with major differences in their recent history and resources.
It also has to do with the amount of power/energy to turn the ship of state around. The number of people needed to bring about a change may just be too high. People have been demonstrating and committing suicide in public to protest what is going on, so I think many of the Greek people do not want their government is doing.
I protested, wrote letters, voted for/against political leaders in the run up to and after the beginning of the Iraq invasion. The protests against the invasion were larger than the protests against the Viet Nam war.
Our “ships of state” have been travelling in particular directions, with a great deal of momentum. Changing direction is not a simple or fast matter.
I think gurusid made a good point about changing/not changing systems in another thread.
The folks I worry about are the ones who do not want debt, but because they have no income and no valuable assets to sell, they get stuck opting to go back to school to survive.
If you have a few resources you can stay out of debt, it’s the running out of resources that is going to get many of us. IMHO.
I have heard that canaries were actually valued by miners, they didn’t wait ’til the canary was dead or leave it behind when they evacuated. It would be nice to be seen as a canary, but I’m the family flake instead.
My oldest sister is convinced that if we just had more scientists/leaders like Neil deGrasse Tyson (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neil_deGrasse_Tyson) we would travel to mars. My middle sister actually watched Stoneliegh’s “Century of Challenges” DVD with me. But my she, my niece, my brother-in-law, and my oldest sister have signed on to more student loans so she can go to college in the fall. So my middle sister thinks that things will get difficult, but not enough to buck the herd as far as sending my niece to college or taking on student debt.
It is hard to buck the herd. The few strangers I’ve spoken to about the economy just talk about “business cycles”.
I volunteer at a local animal shelter. They have been trying to raise money for a new shelter for many years. They are talking about getting the financing completed and breaking ground this fall. I don’t even try to bring up concerns about how long people will be able to continue to donate if things get much worse. People just don’t believe it could happen here.
I do run into a few people who are more interested in gardening and things, but I work at a food shelf, so I’m more likely to meet people who are already falling off the back of the truck.
I wish Stoneleigh could get out a DVD that works in stand alone players. At a lower cost. I’d send one to everyone in my family and even see if I could get my library to take some. Considering the number of spammers that show up here, surely there must be some merit to leaving the information every where. 🙂
So how about this model if you are talking about after the wheels fall off.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Truth_and_reconciliation_commission
So, if I understand you correctly you answer is “no” there is no way we will figure out a way to stop ourselves as humans from being greedy and self destructive, but happily it won’t matter because we will die down to a small enough number that our self destructive choices and behaviors won’t have a significant impact on our environment.
Basically we will just be human – there just won’t be so many of us, so that we won’t continue to create massive toxic waste lands of nuclear waste or other types of waste that won’t overburden our environment.
Hi Triv,
I understand that they are all dancing to the same tune, but I see them like corporation like P3psi and C@ke. Ashvin was speculating as to why the BLS came out with a negative ad for the “Dem” brand. I’m speculating that the Dem brand maybe positioning itself for a collapse in the economy. Just because they are puppets doesn’t mean that the various puppets don’t have preferences about the parts they plat in the theatrical production. The policies implemented by either side will ultimately be the same, how the policies are marketed will be different depending on which brand is in the leadership position.
In that sense I’m speculating on what narrative the various groups, alliances and subgroups among the elite are trying to market.
Obama was a useful pitchman for pacifying certain groups in our society. If the more powerful of the power brokers, are moving behind Romney rather than Obama, why? He’s been a rather faithful servant to their interests. I see it as sets of elites jockeying for various points of leverage.
I think being successful as an elite means trying to generate some trends, but it is also necessaryfor them to navigate or surf some trends that were not something they wished to have come about.
The question I see in Ashvin’s piece is whether the report was a “black swan” that they were inadequately prepared for, if there is a faction in the BLS that is “revolting” and just wanting to throw some sh:t around because they are upset about something, or is it a marketing ploy, if so what is thenarrative they are trying to sell.
The most useful plan in both cases is not to believe any of the marketing, for beverages or politicians. But analyzing why certain choices are being made in a marketing strategy can tell you a lot about the market research they are using to develop their strategy. That is what I was trying to get at – is the Dem brand so certain that there is going to be a train wreck that they would rather lose some of the perks of being the brand in power so that the negative associations of deep economic failure are associated with the other brand. The brands are competitors and individual players get more goodies for having the more successful brand, they are just selling the same product.
My take anyway.
From a Dem brand long term perspective it might be more useful to lose the election. After all President Hoover started his term in 1929 and yet he is the one most strongly associated with the 1929 crash and misery AKA Hoovervilles.
If the wheels genuinely derail in 2013 or 2014 that president and his party will be the brand name associated with that failure.
Of course who knows…
Hi Ashvin,
I know you enjoy discussing the freegold and money topics, but I actually enjoyed your discussions of psychology more…
I nominate the question below as a topic for your consideration.
@ alfbell
“No system will ever be successful until the human mind, and the spiritual being that utilized it, have been isolated and fully understood. Psychiatry, psychology, psychoanalysis, et al. have failed in this area as well. Very too bad because THIS is the key to man’s future survival.Find the source of evil and destructive intentions; the need to dominate; the need to destroy what another creates; man’s inhumanity to man; man’s illogic; man’s low level of morality; man’s “animalistic” tendencies; man’s inability to predict consequences; etc. and you will save mankind.”
—–
So if human kind is dependent on figuring out the mysteries of our souls and then acting rationally on our understanding, we are in a lot of trouble. I think we’ve been working on that longer than we’ve been hunting and gathering or farming combined.Getting us all to agree to a rational response to our human predicament seems out of reach too. If we agreed that human beings will never be consistently rational, that as individuals and groups we act at times on the better and worse angels of our nature could we even agree on a “ring-fencing” technique to keep us from killing off our habitat? For instance, can we even get all humans to agree to not use or develop things that create radioactive waste? As Nicloe Foss and others point out, we have to be responsible for and maintain infrastructure that will keep that toxic waste from contaminating huge areas, and yet we usually can’t keep anything going for extended periods of time.
What I’m trying to figure out is if we all fail to be our best selves at least some of the time, are there any structures we can impose on ourselves that will at least keep us from causing massive damage to ourselves and the planet?
@ RE
“You know, even if she never said “let them eat cake”, from all historical records we know of Marie never was penitent for the life of priviledge she led while the rest of French society was in the Toilet. A Monarchy is not deposed until after many years the pain for the soicety as a whole has become unbearable.You take on great RESPONSIBILTY when you are Elite in your society for the well being of all. If your stewardship is bad, many people DIE. You must be accountable for that, and the only true accountability for it is that you ALSO must DIE. Marie Antoinette got what she DESERVED. In time, so will the Elite of this time period.”
Since the USA is 5% of the world population and we use 25% of the energy resources and 30% of the raw material resources where does that put the US population in your definition of the elite? Anyone with the time and money to post to this board must surely fall into that category.
When you and others get on the topic of doing away with the elite, all Ican think of is images from “The Killing Fields”. You say you seek justice, to me it sounds more like “meet the new boss, same as the old boss”. If you use the same methods as your enemy to deal with problems, you tend to get the same results. The “elite” ostracize, ban and kill those who disagree with them, if you use just an “us against them” narrative all you ultimately advocate is switching a set of old insiders, righteous ones for a set of new insiders, righteous ones. I don’t see that as a change worth while.
@ alfbell
“No system will ever be successful until the human mind, and the spiritual being that utilized it, have been isolated and fully understood. Psychiatry, psychology, psychoanalysis, et al. have failed in this area as well. Very too bad because THIS is the key to man’s future survival.Find the source of evil and destructive intentions; the need to dominate; the need to destroy what another creates; man’s inhumanity to man; man’s illogic; man’s low level of morality; man’s “animalistic” tendencies; man’s inability to predict consequences; etc. and you will save mankind.”
So if human kind is dependent on figuring out the mysteries of our souls and then acting rationally on our understanding, we are in a lot of trouble. I think we’ve been working on that longer than we’ve been hunting and gathering or farming combined.
Getting us all to agree to a rational response to our human predicament seems out of reach too. If we agreed that human beings will never be consistently rational, that as individuals and groups we act at times on the better and worse angels of our nature could we even agree on a “ring-fencing” technique to keep us from killing off our habitat? For instance, can we even get all humans to agree to not use or develop things that create radioactive waste? As Nicloe Foss and others point out, we have to be responsible for and maintain infrastructure that will keep that toxic waste from contaminating huge areas, and yet we usually can’t keep anything going for extended periods of time.
What I’m trying to figure out is if we all fail to be our best selves at least some of the time, are there any structures we can impose on ourselves that will at least keep us from causing massive damage to ourselves and the planet?
@ Bluebird
“My sister told me that she would never get out of the markets, because she would miss the gains when it goes back up. She is so busy taking exotic vacations that she has a professional financial planner to manage her portfolio. I’m the nutty sister who reads blogs.
While I do keep trying to enlighten others, they will be totally shocked when the collapse comes. It will be epic.”
I think the herd mentality is really hard for people to buck. My sisters at least partially “get it”. But at the same time still stay with the status quo on things like taking on debt to send my niece and nephew to college or keeping their retirement in the stock market.
For instance, my sister thinks it is a really bad idea for my niece and nephew to take on debt to go to college and yet because of our culture and the sense that my niece and nephew will be labelled “failures” (by themselves as well as others if they don’t go to college) they go along with taking on what looks to me as unrepayable debt. At present sitting on the sidelines isn’t seen as getting out of the way of the crash, it’s seen as someone who gave up on him/her self.
So I find myself giving into the lesser angels of my nature wanting a “crash” to come down good and hard so I can be vindicated in my superlative foresight:).
But then I remind myself that I’d be screwed because I live low, but what I live on is still very dependent on the current system.
Housing anecdote…
I live in a mobile home park. My neighbors daughter moved here from Florida. She had major credit problems, when she left her job she took the money from her retirement account and bought a used trailer for $39K around August of last year. She has since decided that she prefers the weather in Florida to Minnesota and wants to move back. She was only able to sell the mobile home for $20K.
There is a new mobile home in the park that has been on the market for a year. People apply to buy it, but their credit is too compromised and they can’t get a loan.
I met another woman recently. She and her husband have been trying to sell their vacation home in Arizona for the past 7 years. They need to sell it for the retirement money. I didn’t say anything, I just wished her luck.
On the upside, one of my co-workers is writing a proposal so she can have some laying hens in her yard. The town she lives in currently won’t allow it. And one of my other co-workers actually has a small farm and gave me some eggs on Friday :).
@ Karpatok
“Lets talk, lets plan! There is no place to hide in some stupid macho way. There has to be fighting back and not as a passive aggressive tongue clacking bystander. Lets have some real ideas about what can be done besides endlessly observing, observing, commentating and commenting. “I don’t have any good ideas. The people I know that think there is a problem still see the problems in terms of electing a new politician.
As far as I can tell what I can do for now is try to connect with others and work on my skills.
What would you like to work on?
“Hi Ash,
The next step is to understand that “systems” have “architects.”
WHO designed the systems of control? WHO perpetuates them and keeps them SECRET from the populace?”
Triv it sounds like you are arguing for the “Intellegent Design” theory of human social structures and society and it sounds like Ash is arguing for the “Theory of Evolution” theory of human social structures.
From that perspective it seems unlikely that anyone who sees the societies we have now as something that has evolved (with the occasional attempts by members of the species to influence the direction of that evolution) is something that was wholly designed by members of our species.
The “architects” or “elites” might attempt to “select” for a particular trait, that doesn’t mean they wrote the DNA. The “traits” they have “selected” may have ascendence in one environment, but that doesn’t mean that the same trait won’t bite them in the ass if their environment changes. Being a sociopath might be useful in a world that has abundant resources and a relatively healthy ocean, land and air that allowed the growth of large disconnected populations, but in a time of scarcity and contraction, being untrustworthy may turn out to be a liability. The evidence that the trait might not ultimately succeed may only be apparent a few generations from now.
That’s my two cents anyway.
Candace
“I’m guessing another high magnitude earthquake and/or tsunami.”
Sorry Jack, I was just being flippant and referencing a thread I posted earlier. I have no useful insight to offer.
Candace
BULLSHIT! I have never stated any such thing on any message board at any time in this Universe. There are WAY more than 100 people involved in this, hell that would not even cover all the heirs of Mayer Rothschild
Mea Culpa… That was Triv. Sorry.
Backwards,
I think you saw REs number below for being top of the food chain on a planetary scale. I remembered a different number. But I suspect it changes depending on what gets included in the calculation.
RE also stated that he suspects that no more than 100 or so are the players in control. I’ve been in comment sections where people then wanted to get down to specific names (Info Wars comes to mind, but so does Keiser). What is the next logical step to emancipate humanity once you have a list of names? Maybe it’s just to publicly out them, or maybe something more along the lines of the French revolution or the Khmer Rouge. Of course after things got “rolling” so to speak, the list of names got longer, because getting rid of people on the list didn’t actually solve the problem.
In my view the problem is our complicity and ignorance. The people who have tried to end complicity and ignorance only seem to get so far before the message gets co-opted into something that perpetuates complicity and ignorance.
I’m glad you, Triv, RE, and Ben have got the answer and will be able to fix the human race. Sincerely. I hope it happens. From where I’m sitting things are looking quite bleak.
Candace
Ben,
I don’t want anyone to be banned. I didn’t even want Cheryl to be banned. I just didn’t want “her” logging in under other people’s IDs and putting words in their mouths. As long as Cheryl’s posts were just Cheryl’s posts I could read them, ignore them or respond to them as I chose. The problem was when “Cheryl” started misrepresenting “herself” as other posters.
I think RE contributes many useful comments. I find his humor rather mean spirited. That’s what I thought deserved the negative vote. It seems rather ingracious to come to someone else’s blog and spew about how awful they think the writing is and by the way you should read my blog instead.
Went to his blog, has the same things about it that I don’t like about the new version of TAE – too busy. I’m just an old stick in the mud.
Hi Glennda,
I have to admit to hoping Nicole will weigh in and say these folks are being a bit alarmist. I sent the links to my sisters. I’m also known as the pessimist, so the tend to skim over what I send. My nephew has also wanted to go study in Japan or South Korea. I’m thinking he should definitely rule out Japan. I haven’t seen this picked up at other sites, so just getting other places to pick up the story would be useful. I’ll send some emails to some columnists I read. I expect they’ll just circular file it. But maybe they will think it’s worth checking out.
Candace
I voted my opinion of you popularity by clicking on the minus sign next to you karma. As you have said, what goes around comes around.
Candace
I suppose my pointing out that “wary” doesn’t mean that I think something will automatically happen, but that I think it is something that could happen, and that I and others should be cautious in how we procede.
Realistically speaking if we are to do away with the elite 1% then we will have to do away with my sisters and their families since they both make over 35k a year per family member. After all anyone who makes over 35K per individual is in the top 1% wealth braket of the world.
I’m not on board with that.
Influencing whether or not someone is prosecuted for fraud in the realestate market is not the same as controlling all political events. We still have congress members caught and prosecuted for accepting bribes. To me that says influence not control.
Candace
I was not commenting on what you feel is going on. I was commenting on your characterization of what Quigley would say. Clearly he stated that they influenced events in the past. The effects of the influence they wielded then are clearly similar to the effects of their influence now, therefore I believe you are putting words in Quigley’s mouth to say that he would say they are in control of events at this time.
I am disagreeing with your appeal to Quigley’s writing to support your premise. He clearly did not agree with the premise of control rather than influence in the past, so it is in correct to state that he would characterize the present as a state of control rather than influence.
I feel that that is the difference between the way that some people read history. If an historian says something happened most of the time, that gets conflated into 100% of the time.
I am wary of the way some commenters on this thread wish to demonize groups labelled “bankers” or “elites”. If enough hatred gets going,how long will it be before someone who is educated or wears glasses is an elite? I think there are events in humanities recent past that shows how dangerous that can be.
Candace
Skousen also claims, Dr. Quigley believes, the influential group of Wall Street financiers still exists and controls the country. “I never said that,” Dr. Quigley said flatly. “In fact, they never were in a position to ‘control’ it, merely to influence political events.”
I think you missed the quote above when writing the quote below.
As for Dr. Quigley, he may have said that the influential Wall Street group ceased to exist about 1940, but I’ll bet, if he were alive today, he would surely say they took a deep breath and got resuscitated around the Thatcher/Reagan period, were nursed back to health by the Clinton administration, and that they ARE presently in control of the country, again.
Perhaps he would say ” they were resuscitated and currently greatly influence political events. “
“His obtuseness” ? Your tone and style are not neccessary here. As for conspiracies, have all you men going going to the club meetings to keep up with the conspiracy of female oppression? Or has that history come out of the habits of human beings? Did slavery start with a conspiracy or did it just become a habit for people that was reinforced because the people it benefitted were so comfortable with that habit that they were willing to use any means they could think of to keep it going?
Triv was saying that Ash seems to support the idealized version of communism, but you seem just as wedded to “idealism” with your statements.
A couple of days ago a friend was talking about an article he read in the “Guardian” abouta man who escaped from a prison camp in North Korea. It is an excerpt from a book titled “Escape from Camp 14”.
I know one of the things my friend found most disturbing was the the way no one could trust another person.
It’s also difficult to know how accurate the story is since North Korea is so isolated. But it does make me wonder about how people survive in such circumstances.
My reaction to the article does make me disagree with the assertion that that a decrease in complexity and energy in puts makes a totalitarin scenario less likely.
It is a sad and worisome future to contemplate.
True enough. But massive student loan debt is just so sad. It seems middle class people can’t imagine that their kids should go without a “certificate of middle-classness”. No going to the ju-co for the first two years either, gotta keep up with the other kids starting out at four-year schools.
My mom was born in 25. I was raised waiting for the next “great depression”. I had an unfair advantage in gaining my doomer perspective. 😉
I keep running into “it’s just part of the business cycle” response. I just don’t have enough expertise to convince people that this isn’t just a standard boom/bust cycle.
People I know are still planning on taking on massive debt. I can’t seem to find the right way to tell them that it is a really bad idea. Very dis-heartening.
“A full global recovery this year may disguise this for a little longer. Any relapse will bring matters to a head yet again within months.”
So there’s a full global recovery expected?
So Joe and Ian,
What is it that you want? What is the point of your comments? Stoneleigh and Illargi are doing what they can. Ashvin is doing what he can. What is your contribution? If you are writing blogs post them. Are you upset because you weren’t invited to create the transition? Change is difficult. Practice dealing with changes you don’t like. The one thing a financial crisis and peak oil can guarantee is that we will see changes we don’t like. What we can not know is what exactly they will be and when they will occur.
