blue wave Archives - The Automatic Earth

Everything they've told you about the War in Ukraine is a lie.

When Russia "Invaded Crimea" in 2014, why did 9,268 "Ukrainian" soldiers accept Russian citizenship and join the Russian Army?

When Russia "Invaded Ukraine" in 2022, why did 2.9 million Ukrainians flee into Russia? pic.twitter.com/myzfnLD2uq
— Chay Bowes (@BowesChay) October 25, 2026

How did Russia become the West’s eternal enemy? It started in Britain 1840 – Prof Jeffrey Sachs

The Brits and Russians had been allies but all of a sudden the Brits decided that Russia was too big, and a potential threat to their Empire.

So they started the Crimean war.

Ever… pic.twitter.com/0ElRmFQTsU
— Alternative News (@AlternatNews) October 27, 2026

The orange, green, and purple parts were annexed after WW2. Poland wants the orange part back. They were forced to give it up in exchange for German lands to the west.

It has never been Ukrainian. pic.twitter.com/2SdtJJyLvg
— Alternative News (@AlternatNews) October 26, 2026

https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/2114821403132280882?s=20

DSA.

• The Real Reason There Won’t Be a Blue Wave in November (Margolis)

Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) has spent months warning his own party about socialism, and the left has refused to take him seriously. “Our party has a socialism problem,” Fetterman said. “I’ll be the one Democrat that calls it for what it is and not use the euphemism that it’s a big-tent situation.”

Conservatives have mocked the Democrat Party’s “big tent” rhetoric when it comes to DSA-aligned candidates, and for good reason. The phrase is supposed to signal a broad, welcoming coalition. In reality, it’s meant to justify welcoming radicals as more moderate voices get pushed out. Heck, Fetterman, who is no moderate, is being pushed out of the “big tent” because he only supports his party 95% of the time.
Fetterman has also called out the company his party keeps, like Hasan Piker, the popular left-wing streamer who said “America deserved 9/11,” among other things. Now that he has become a liability for Democrats, he has tried to walk back his past comments. Fetterman isn’t buying it, but unfortunately for the Democrats, they haven’t heeded his warning, and the numbers now suggest the trouble has arrived.
Americans for Prosperity (AFP), a libertarian-leaning advocacy group, has been tracking voters in the battleground states all cycle. Earlier this month, its organizers spoke with 81,673 voters in Alaska, Iowa, Michigan, Montana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Wisconsin. Between 9,000 and 10,200 of them answered questions about the DSA. It’s AFP’s final “Americans Unscripted” report before Election Day, and the New York Post got an early look.
Let’s start with the DSA itself.
In September, 50% of respondents viewed the group unfavorably. That number has climbed to 56%. Then consider the broader perception of the Democrat Party. In September, half of respondents said the far left controls it. Now nearly 60% say so. And when asked to choose between personal freedom and free markets on one hand and government control on the other, 82% picked freedom.
Put those together, and the picture is clear. Swing voters in the states that will decide the midterms are turning against the DSA and the far left, and they’re doing it in the final stretch. “Swing voters are souring on socialism — and fast,” AFP spokeswoman Katelyn Bledsoe told the Post. Democrats on the ground seem to sense it. In Michigan, House candidate William Lawrence recently dropped his DSA membership while facing a tough race. Of course, the same survey carries a warning for Republicans.
On cost of living, 45% of respondents trust Democrats more, compared with 36% for Republicans and 18% for neither. Back in August, the GOP led on that issue 44% to 39%. Top forecasters already see Republicans as underdogs for the House and, increasingly, the Senate. That matters because the cost of living keeps topping voter concern lists, from gas prices to inflation.
“Inflation and fuel costs are squeezing my business,” Nick, a contractor in New Hampshire, told AFP. So the opening is real, but it comes with conditions. Bledsoe said the souring on socialism gives Republicans an advantage, adding that “the candidates who show voters a credible plan to bring their costs down are in the strongest position on November 3.” Voters have rejected the far left’s answer. They’re still waiting to hear a convincing one from the right.
In the end, the Democrat Party isn’t rejecting socialism; it’s embracing it, and when the blue wave doesn’t materialize in November, that will be the reason why.

“.. when I’m on the ballot, exactly 49% more people show up..”

“The price of oil is lower than it was with [Joe] Biden and [Barack] Obama, and they didn’t do anything to do with destroying nuclear capability..”

• What I Saw on Trump’s Trip to Mississippi (Elizabeth Troutman Mitchell)

President Donald Trump urged a lively crowd of his Mississippi fans not to “stay home” for the midterm elections, as a Senate race once considered safely Republican has tightened.

Mississippi is typically among the most reliably red states, but the Cook Political Report last week moved its rating of the race between Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith and Democrat Scott Colom from solid Republican to likely Republican. Trump’s 32-day midterm blitz included a stop in Corinth, Mississippi, on Monday night, just eight days before Election Day.
The president urged voters to pretend he’s on the ballot. “The reason is, when I’m on the ballot, exactly 49% more people show up,” he said. Trump’s midterm election tour has targeted states that he won by large margins in 2024 but where Republicans are currently embroiled in closer-than-expected races.
When asked about the race by the Daily Signal, Trump said Hyde-Smith was doing well, but he wanted to ensure she maintained her seat. “I want to make sure she wins,” he said. “She’s a great person, and she’s a great senator. She loves Mississippi. She loves her state.”

I asked @POTUS about Cook Report moving MS from solid R to likely R.

"I want to make sure she wins. She's a great person, and she's a great senator. She loves Mississippi. She loves her stat,” he told @DailySignal. pic.twitter.com/XmKBPFT6W8
— Elizabeth Troutman Mitchell (@TheElizMitchell) October 26, 2026

Trump asked an arena filled to the brim with Republican voters not to neglect voting for Hyde-Smith. “Sometimes when you think somebody’s doing so well, nobody votes,” Trump said. “They all stay home.”
Amid rural voters’ discontentment with high prices, Trump defended high oil prices, saying he thought they would go even higher. “We had to do it,” he said of the war in Iran. “It should have been done 10 years ago.” “The price of oil is lower than it was with [Joe] Biden and [Barack] Obama, and they didn’t do anything to do with destroying nuclear capability,” he added.

President Trump spoke to a packed house of enthusiastic fans in MS.

He threw hats to supporters as he took the stage. @DailySignal pic.twitter.com/eWoBgwhx3I
— Elizabeth Troutman Mitchell (@TheElizMitchell) October 27, 2026

Trump continued his midterm tour trend of emphasizing investments in the local economy. “Right here in Mississippi, Toyota is investing $129 million to expand production at its Blue Springs plant,” he said. Trump concluded the rally by contrasting Hyde-Smith and her Democrat opponent, Colom. “He’s a disaster,” he said. “He wants to take your guns away. He wants to open your borders. You must reelect Cindy Hyde-Smith.”

.@POTUS is back in DC.

He briefly spoke to the press and told @DailySignal he is not worried about the unrest in Europe escalating.

“That’s an immigration problem. It’s a huge problem. They should have stopped it a long time. And I told every one of them they should do that.” pic.twitter.com/DuoklJlrgv
— Elizabeth Troutman Mitchell (@TheElizMitchell) October 27, 2026

Just yesterday I saw a Daily Show with Jon Stewart episode that was talking sbout this. And I don’t get it. Trump got into politics to make money? Far as I know he’s losing money he could have made in his line of business. Plus, he’s 80.

About Nancy Pelosi: “..In the 39 years that Granny Boxwine has been in Congress..”

• Shut the Hell Up About Trump ‘Profiting’ From Politics (Stephen Kruiser)

Carrying water for the Democratic Party — especially here in the Year of Our Lord 2026 — is no easy task. Over the years, the Dems’ flying monkeys in the mainstream media have amassed quite a playbook filled with go-to tricks to aid in their propaganda efforts. One of the favorites that I have noticed since my early days of writing about media bias is that the MSM hacks have a very specific list of things that they will only complain about when there is a Republican in the White House.

Take homelessness, for example. All coverage of the issue pretty much disappears from the pages of The New York Times and the story ideas for the Big Three news broadcasts. As soon as a Republican hits the Oval Office, a visitor from outer space might think that the United States is 95% “unhoused.”
Not surprisingly, the level of unhinged Trump Derangement Syndrome hysteria at the MSM sites is worse than ever now that we’re in the final days leading up to the midterms. After not being able to defeat President Trump in 2024 despite the fact that they perverted justice whenever and wherever they could, the Democrats view this as their final chance to really, really have their “GOTCHA!” moment and rebuke him. Trump may not be on the ballot, but he is still in office, so the Dems have essentially been campaigning only against him. When I peruse the MSM digital insane asylum every weekday, it’s all caterwauling about Trump and almost no reporting on individual GOP candidates.
It won’t be a very big flex if the Dems do have a good election, it’ll just be following a historical pattern. Overperforming on expectations with huge gains would be more of a reflection on the Republican Party as a whole. Yes, Trump is the head of that party but, let’s face it, Congressional Republicans haven’t done a lot to help his ambitious agenda. An agenda that is good for the long-term health of the Republic, by the way.
Back to the MSM bag of tricks. Another thing that only gets discussed when the Republicans have the White House is the net worth of the president. One thing that I don’t ever recall getting a lot of ink (I’m old school), is how much money a president was making in addition to his government salary while in office. The Dems are obsessed with that when it comes to Trump. His High Holiness the Lightbringer Barack Momjeans Obama decided to talk about that last weekend while ostensibly stumping for Abdul El-Sayed (Tim covered that here).
For several months now, the nonsense about Trump using the presidency to make money has been high on the Dems’ list of garbage that doesn’t mean anything but can still be used to scare their low-info base. It’s one of their most pathetic reaches yet.
Then-private citizen Donald Trump entered the Oval Office with the highest net worth of any president in history. He was wildly successful in the private sector, which is something almost anathema to Democrats. The reality is that Trump could make a fortune off the interest on a passbook savings account (Are those still a thing?) if he wanted to. Of course his businesses are going to make money even while he’s president.
What the Dem media propagandists are never curious about is how people in Congress and the White House amass wealth just from their “public service.” For example, we’re supposed to believe that Barack Obama increased his net worth by almost $11 million in eight years from book royalties.
The most egregious example, as we all know, is former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, who is the Warren Buffett of career politicians. There is an app called Autopilot which is an AI-driven investment platform. You just pick an AI curated portfolio, throw in your money, and let HAL 9000 be your financial guru. Autopilot’s most popular portfolio is called — I kid you not — the “Pelosi Tracker+.”
In the 39 years that Granny Boxwine has been in Congress, no MSM outlet did a deep dive into how she just happened to be just so darn lucky at picking stocks.
Sowing the seeds of class warfare by whining about rich people is boilerplate Dem stuff, especially now that they’re out of the commie closet. However, asserting that President Trump is focused on using his office is patently absurd for so many reasons, but I’ll wrap up with just two.
First, he doesn’t need any more money.
Second, President Trump is focused on what’s best for the United States of America and for ALL Americans. Democrats can’t admit that to themselves because they respond to an evil caricature of Trump that they made up a decade ago. To do what’s best for the country, he has to spend all of his time cleaning up messes that the Democrats have made, and continue to make.
The man doesn’t have any time for a presidential side hustle.

“Hand in hand, Germany and France are steering toward the abyss — with different domestic political goals, perhaps, but with the same fatal outcome.”

And the rest of Europe will follow.

• Hand In Hand Toward the Abyss (Thomas Kolbe)

With massive state demand, Berlin and Paris hoped to escape the debt spiral. But economic data show that, in the end, not even statistical pseudo-growth remains. The pillars of the EU are crumbling amid structural failure.

Fateful weeks on the bond markets: The rise in French bond yields continues unabated. At the same time, German yields are falling — the first wave of capital flight within the eurozone has begun. Investors are steering toward the supposedly safe harbor of Germany.
France’s immense budget problem, the chaos on its streets, its fundamentally misguided economic policy, and the astonishing reform incapacity of the French classe politique are sinking ever deeper into the consciousness of the markets.
The femme fatale of the eurozone’s debt club is threatening the tectonics of the entire EU in these recent weeks. For now, Germany remains firmly embedded as the credit anchor of the common capital market, but France’s shockwaves bode ill: If the trend in French bonds does not reverse very soon, the ECB’s fire brigade will probably be called in to extinguish the blaze.
This is an important lesson for all those who still believe that government debt can solve social problems — or even generate prosperity: State consumption crowds out the private economy. France has made this dish its recurring daily menu.
France’s statism is legendary. With government spending at 57.2 percent of GDP and a tax-and-levy burden of 43.6 percent, the country has succumbed to the illusion that state control can secure prosperity permanently.
France’s economic situation in early autumn is dire, though hardly surprising. Construction is stuck deep in the valley of tears, with a Purchasing Managers’ Index of 39.8 points. In October, manufacturing slipped back into contraction territory, with a preliminary PMI of 49.3 points. Industrial production offers little reason for optimism either: In the third quarter, it was 1.9 percent below the previous quarter. France is being deindustrialized just like its eastern neighbor.
What is actually rising is new borrowing as well as prices: For 2026, the French government now expects a budget deficit of 5.4 percent of GDP; in September, the inflation rate stood at 3.1 percent. Anyone who still hopes that France can spend its way out of the crisis with its own debt hammer now stands as an economic-policy laughingstock. It would be the first time a socialist state transformed its own inefficiencies into an economic triumph.
This insight applies to Germany as well. Meanwhile, the widening divergence in bond markets makes clear that the interests of Berlin and France’s political leadership are drifting further apart.
This is visible in Ukraine policy, but also in joint defense policy, which is probably on ice for the time being. And this will likely remain the case even if Marine Le Pen is elected France’s next president. She has already announced that Germany would have to shoulder larger parts of the EU budget. Given France’s pressing budget problems, this is unlikely to meet with much enthusiasm in Berlin. So there will be no partnership-based overhaul of the EU.
What still binds the two pillars of the EU together, however, is their faith in the welfare state and interventionist economic policy.
The Bundesbank — something the German government will not like to hear — saw the German economy stagnate again in the third quarter after its brief recovery in the first half of the year. No matter how much debt money the central planners let rain down through their green pseudo-economics, the damage they have left in the engine room of the real economy can no longer be covered even statistically by the largest new borrowing in the history of the Federal Republic.
Friedrich Merz and his debt minister, Lars Klingbeil, let the credit pump run at full speed in the first half of the year: The deficits of public households totaled 98.8 billion euros. The political class is charging forward, taking children — and even grandchildren — into debt bondage for its own political failure.
Germany is giving the economically uninitiated a bitter lesson: Government debt does not create growth. It is an expression of an imbalance between the public and private sectors. It fosters a naive belief in technocratic feasibility and a dangerous political megalomania that ultimately makes political fraying into madness possible: We have seen the consequences in migration policy, in the green transformation madness, and in German energy policy. If necessary, monetary policy and its credit pump will fix it — or so the childish thinking goes.
Back on the ground of reality, away from the political cloud of illusion, things look bleak: Between 10,000 and 15,000 industrial jobs are being lost every month. The chemical industry is crumbling, with capacity utilization at a mere 73 percent. Overall, industry has lost more than 15 percent of its production volume since the pre-lockdown era. In this political mode, nothing will succeed anymore.
Hand in hand, Germany and France are steering toward the abyss — with different domestic political goals, perhaps, but with the same fatal outcome: People are fleeing into the superstition of collectivism. They trust the political class rather than summoning the courage to follow Argentina’s example and smash the bureaucracy. In Argentina, 50,000 public-administration employees were dismissed, and the budget was repaired with a primary surplus. And the economy, too, got back on its feet.
Europe — especially France and Germany — needs a free-market injection and, above all, the willingness to make an honest diagnosis of the situation. Only then can we discuss the therapy.

Before you know it, it’s real oil.

It’s 1-2 million barrels per ship. x1,000?!

• US Army Says It Has Helped 1.5 Billion Barrels of Oil Out of Hormuz (OP)

U.S. forces have helped Persian Gulf producers move more than 1.5 billion barrels out of the Strait of Hormuz since the Iran war began, Adm. Brad Cooper, the commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), said during a visit to the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday. More than 3,000 commercial vessels have successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz with support from CENTCOM forces over the last six months, the U.S. military said.

“We continue to stand shoulder to shoulder with our Gulf partners and the shipping industry,” said Cooper. “This visit underscores our strong commitment to continued freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.” American forces have successfully cleared the Strait of Hormuz’s international shipping lanes of sea mines laid by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), according to the U.S. Central Command.
The U.S. military said that the 95% success rate of ships navigating the Strait of Hormuz without incident in recent months is “clearly demonstrating that the United States and regional partners control the international waterway.” Oil flows out of the Strait of Hormuz, and the whole Middle East has recovered in the past two months, according to various tanker-tracking services. Some estimates put the flows at the Strait of Hormuz at already exceeding pre-war levels, excluding Iranian exports.
However, threats to shipping in the area have not subsided. On the contrary, the escalating Saudi-Houthi tensions could disrupt the recovering flows, while Iran has claimed dozens of hits on tankers in the Persian Gulf and in the Strait of Hormuz.
At any rate, the market continues to price in a prolonged disruption and continued inefficient oil shipments, which have hiked shipping costs to record highs, further raising the cost of crude oil for buyers and ultimately, for the end consumers.
Oil prices fell in Asian trade on Monday, but Brent Crude remained above $115 per barrel, and WTI was still above the $100 mark, as hostilities between Yemen’s Houthis and Saudi Arabia, as well as Iranian attacks on tankers in the Persian Gulf, continue.

“.. when the U.S., Russia and China all want the same thing at the U.N. Security Council, they usually get it.”

If the EU have their way, the UN will be led by a globalist.

The US may leave in that case. Seriously.

• Trump Admin Floats Viktor Orban For Secretary-General (ZH)

Viktor Orbán as Secretary-General of the United Nations?

The proposal was featured in an unexpected weekend Wall Street Journal headline. The publication reports that Trump administration officials are floating the former Hungarian prime minister as UN chief. The WSJ cites some degree of emerging support for this prospect, but it would certainly be met with immense pushback and controversy among many European and other countries. The EU was of course long at loggerheads with Orban frequently during his prior four consecutive terms in office as Hungary’s prime minister, which stretched all the way back to 2010. Most recently, it was a sole Hungarian veto that often held up more Ukraine funding.
The WSJ Editorial Board on Sunday wrote in Viktor Orbán, U.N. Secretary-General?… “You read that correctly. Sources from three countries confirm that the Trump Administration has advocated Viktor Orbán for the role of United Nations Secretary-General. The U.S. has encouraged the former Hungarian Prime Minister to enter the race, even bringing him the initial idea. The plan awaits a final decision.” Further, the outlet revealed the following:
“A Trump State Department official concedes that it sounds crazy at first. But Russia and China are believed to be supportive, based on prior conversations with Washington, and the plan would be for Mr. Orbán to be their joint candidate. As officials from the U.S. and a second country told us, when the U.S., Russia and China all want the same thing at the U.N. Security Council, they usually get it.
The State Department official counted eight Security Council votes “comfortably” for Mr. Orbán, and 10 within reach from the 15 council members. Would Britain and France then stand in the majority’s way? Those two are typically cautious in their use of the veto power. Russia has had a lengthy good relationship with Orban, and he has been hosted in Moscow for one-on-one Putin meetings, even during the Ukraine war (the last time was Nov. 2025).
However, there are many countries – especially within the EU as well as among the Global South, which would harbor suspicions of any “Trump pick” as Secretary-General. They already perceive that Washington too often gets its way in term of Security Council vetoes and resolutions, particularly when it comes to protecting allies like Israel.
António Guterres concludes his second and final five-year term in the top UN office on December 31, 2026 – and so the scramble to put forth a replacement candidate is set to intensify in the coming months.

Are they pushing aside other Europeans?

• Finland Readout: Stubb and Støre Hold Telephone Call with Vladimir Putin (CTH)

It will be more interesting to review the official readout from Russia, because as you can see below the readout from Finland and Norway is full of generalized words with no substance about the issues discussed. Finland President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre had a telephone conversation with Russian Federation President, Vladimir Putin. Here is the readout from the Finland/Norway side:

[TRANSLATED, Via Finland]: “On Tuesday, 27 October 2026, President of the Republic Alexander Stubb and Prime Minister of Norway Jonas Gahr Støre held a telephone conversation with President Vladimir Putin of Russia. The call was a follow-up to the meeting held in Oslo on 20 October. Ukraine was consulted in the preparation of the call.
President Stubb and Prime Minister Støre initiated the call to discuss Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine and diplomatic efforts to end the war and promote peace and stability in Europe. Finland and Norway are Russia’s neighbours, and both countries are staunch supporters of Ukraine. The aim of the call was to convey Ukraine’s messages about the upcoming peace talks in Abu Dhabi directly to President Putin.
President Stubb and Prime Minister Støre participated in the call as leaders of their countries, and they did not act as representatives of Europe.mFinland and Norway have always promoted peace and security in their regions. In the call, President Stubb and Prime Minister Støre emphasised that both countries operate in a stable and predictable manner in the Baltic Sea and the northern regions.
The President and Prime Minister emphasised that Finland and Norway will continue their long-term support for Ukraine. Stubb and Støre stressed that the war must end and the negotiations must continue.m “The discussion was direct and to the point. We are Russia’s neighbours. How the war ends will affect the security of Finland and Norway and, more broadly, the security of Europe as a whole. Ending the war requires direct discussions,” President Stubb said.

“War causes enormous human suffering and costs. War leaves its mark on several generations. In the call, we emphasized the importance of de-escalation,” Prime Minister Store said. President Stubb and Prime Minister Støre made a phone call from Helsinki.”

What do Stubb and Støre expect from Putin? He has very little room to move.

• Russian Readout: Vladimir Putin Holds Phone Call with Stubb and Störe (CTH)

We suspected there would be something slightly more substantive from the Russian readout of the phone call between Vladimir Putin, Alexander Stubb and Jonas Störe. You can read the Nordic readout here. Here’s the Russian version: “President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin had a telephone conversation with President of the Republic of Finland Alexander Stubb and Prime Minister of the Kingdom of Norway Jonas Gahr Störe at the request of the Finnish and Norwegian sides.”

“There was an exchange of views on settling the Ukraine crisis in light of Vladimir Putin’s talks with US Presidential Envoy Steve Witkoff in St Petersburg on October 21 as well as Alexander Stubb and Jonas Gahr Störe’s own recent contacts with Steve Witkoff and Vladimir Zelensky in Oslo. The parties welcomed the agreement to resume trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the United States in Abu Dhabi in early to mid November, intended in particular to discuss ways to ensure the security of both Russia and Ukraine once a complete cessation of hostilities is reached.
Vladimir Putin assessed the current situation in the Ukraine conflict zone, reiterating its root causes and emphasising that a just and lasting peace would be possible only if the interests of the Russian Federation are considered in full and without any conditions attached. In addition, he noted the EU and NATO’s confrontational policies which result in prolonging the hostilities. Ensuring security in the Baltic Sea and Northern Europe were discussed as well. In this regard, both the President of Finland and the Prime Minister of Norway reaffirmed the importance of upholding international maritime law and the freedom of navigation.
The President of Russia notified the Finnish and Norwegian parties of the fact that a US-mediated humanitarian operation was now underway in the vicinity of the Russian community of Alyoshki and that a temporary ceasefire was introduced in the Kherson sector of the frontline to make it possible. The three leaders agreed to maintain direct telephone contact in the future. Not everyone is happy about all this direct contact that could lead to the possibility of a permanent ceasefire and direct negotiations toward the ending of hostilities.
Mette and Ulf are not pleased. Apparently, the Danes and Swedes are not happy about all this, well, peaceful stuff being thrown about willy nilly. […] Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen criticized the call, saying it ‘was not coordinated with the rest of us.’ She stressed the importance of European unity in comments to reporters on Tuesday, adding ‘we should be very careful about giving Putin an opportunity that he did not have until a few hours ago.’
, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, speaking from an event in Helsinki, said he had been given no advance notice and held low expectations from the call. He emphasized that his country’s position remained that peace had to be reached on Ukraine’s terms.

All of this is happening after both Russia and Ukraine said a ceasefire in the city of, Oleshky brokered by US First Lady Melania Trump, had begun at 3am local time and was in effect through the morning. Ukrainian negotiator David Arakhamia said it would last until 10.59pm on November 1.
Oleshky in Ukraine’s southern Kherson region has been caught in the middle of the fighting since 2022, when it was overwhelmed by Russian forces at the start of the invasion. The population has dropped from about 24,000 to around 2,000 today. A spokesman for Ukraine’s Marine Corps, Pavlo Drogal, told reporters that ‘the enemy is observing the ceasefire’ as of 9am local time. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov also said there had been no reports of violations.
Peace is the prize!

As we speak, Bibi’s group has it with 57% of votes counted.

• Election Day in Israel (Rabbi Michael Barclay)

Tuesday is election day in Israel, and that is where the focus of the country rests. There are over 12,000 locations for Israelis to cast their votes, and although the votes will be counted quickly, it could possibly be weeks or even months before a coalition government is created.

But while Israelis vote, the rest of the Middle East is being active in preparing for more war. Reuters released information on Monday that Iran has been sending money to Hezbollah in order to rebuild — over $200 million — and Hezbollah has been redeveloping infrastructure and weapons.
Iran continues to act with hubris. They have reiterated that any discussions about nuclear development are off the table until/if/when the United States agrees to their seven-point plan. At the same time, Trump keeps stating that while he seeks peaceful negotiations, he might just as easily choose to destroy Iran militarily, and that he could accomplish that easily.
And with all the different things going on around them, Israelis are demonstrating the path of democracy around the country as they exercise their right to vote. Surrounded by anti-democratic nations; abused by the world; under the constant threat of war, the Israelis again show their commitment to life and liberty. President Herzog phrased it well on Tuesday when he said that the elections are “a true holiday for democracy that no one should ruin,” and “even when we put different ballots in the box, in the end we have a shared destiny in this country.”
When I was in Israel this past summer, someone said, “We are one small country, but one large family.”
May the people of Israel always be protected, and may the world realize the beauty and unity of that family that is Israel.
Chazak u’Baruch
Rabbi Michael Barclay
October 27, 2026
16th of Cheshvan, 5787

The left won because the right was divided?

• If the Election Wasn’t Rigged, Why Is the Loser Fleeing the Country? (Anderson)

On Monday, I said the situation in Brazil — following an almost certainly rigged runoff election in which the little dictator Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva pulled off a shocking “win” — was only going to get crazier, and, well, we’re watching that happen in real time.

To recap, the country held elections earlier this month, and it looked like it was going to be a decent win for the right. Lula, who was running for his fourth term, got fewer votes than his main opponent, Flávio Bolsonaro, and, down the ballot, there were many surprising wins for the right and even other members of the Bolsonaro family.
But neither candidate reached the 50% of the vote needed to secure the position, so runoffs were held this past Sunday. Somehow, Lula managed to win with around 4.4 million more votes than Bolsonaro. The numbers themselves were fishy, but they came after a member of Brazil’s highly corrupt Supreme Court ordered voting stations to stay open an extra two hours, moments after some of them had already closed and couldn’t reopen. The particular member of the court who made this call was also Lula’s personal defense attorney back during his own corruption trial.
Bolsonaro refused to give up, but on Monday, while visiting his father, Jair (the former Brazilian president whom Lula accused of plotting a coup and who is currently under house arrest due to health issues), he said federal police stopped him and told him he had 24 hours to turn over his passports. The order came directly from Justice Alexandre de Moraes, the court’s most corrupt member, who has a habit of human rights abuses and jailing political opponents (see: why Jair Bolsonaro is under house arrest) and is currently sanctioned by the United States.
Moraes says it has to do with a money-laundering case, but everyone knows it’s more of the same old leftist corruption. Initially, Flávio said he would cooperate, but news broke on Tuesday afternoon that he (and possibly other members of his family) was on a plane headed to the United States to seek asylum.
If a country is holding free and fair elections, most of the time the loser doesn’t have to GTFO within 48 hours after the polls close. Just saying…
Flávio, who was initially going to challenge the election results and call for an annulment, had backed off from that kind of language by Monday evening and said he would fight other legal battles related to the results. His own party also formally recognized the results, though with some questions. Even so, once the 24-hour deadline came and went, Brazilian authorities canceled his passports. His whereabouts were, at that point, unknown.
According to Spanish reporter David Alandete, “The White House confirms to ABC that the United States will grant visas to Flávio Bolsonaro and his family and allow them to enter U.S. territory.” Here’s more: The State Department will issue visas to Flávio Bolsonaro and his family and has authorized their entry into the United States, a White House official spokesperson assures.
The statement constitutes an explicit confirmation that Washington has facilitated the entry of the son of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and his relatives. It does not specify when they entered, what type of visas they will receive, or how long they will be allowed to remain in the country.
While Donald Trump and Marco Rubio never formally endorsed the younger Bolsonaro during the Brazilian election cycle, it was quite clear who they supported. Flávio visited Trump earlier this year and asked Rubio to designate Brazil’s top criminal groups as terrorist organizations. Trump and Jair have also been good friends for years.

A judge quoting Dr. Seuss.

“Judge infuriates Trump by blocking plans to renovate historic DC golf course..”

• ‘I Am Not The Lorax. I Do Not Speak For The Trees.’ (Ryan King)

A DC federal judge extended her block Monday on President Trump’s cherished plans to renovate the East Potomac Golf Links near the White House, prompting a furious tirade from the commander in chief. US District Judge Ana Reyes, a Joe Biden appointee, barred the administration from taking down or otherwise harming additional trees on the 36-hole course and mandated a 10-day notice before pursuing any “irreparable modification.”

“Rarely, if ever, has the United States Department of Justice urged a federal court not to believe the sitting President,” Reyes wrote in a scathing, 70-page ruling. “This started as a case about golf. That good walk spoiled.“But it has become much more,” she went on. “It now forces the Court to reconcile assertions by President Donald J. Trump with the sworn testimony of multiple government employees and the argument of senior Department of Justice attorneys. This morass of different accounts.”
Trump blasted the 10-day notice period as an “unconstitutional request” by Reyes and vowed to challenge her ruling. “To have to give advanced notices to a judge who has no expertise in Golf, Architecture, Landscaping, Construction, or anything else having to do with building such a World Class Project, is not fair, appropriate, or Constitutional,” he fumed on Truth Social as he flew back to Washington from a pre-midterm campaign rally in Mississippi.
“In its current form, the Course is extremely dangerous to play, in that the narrow and nondescript fairways are far too close together, leading to a constant barrage of people being hit with wayward shots.” The president, who has publicly crowed about winning multiple tournaments at his own golf clubs, further insisted that Reyes “has absolutely no right to hold up this very important and beautiful Project.”
On Oct. 18, Trump unveiled his favored design for East Potomac, which sits on a man-made peninsula south of the Jefferson Memorial, and declared that it would be shut down for 15 months beginning Nov. 15 to transform it into “one of the Best and Most Spectacular Golf Courses anywhere in the World.” The president’s preferred design, by noted golf course architect Tom Fazio, would create a single 18-hole championship layout.
Critically, the proposed changes appear to eliminate a network of trails through the property, which are frequented by runners and bikers and have been used as part of the course for the Marine Corps Marathon. The Fazio design has triggered litigation from the DC Preservation League, among other plaintiffs. In May, Reyes ordered the Trump administration to give notice of plans to cut down more than 10 trees. On Oct. 9, the White House notified the court of plans to cut “up to 529 trees.”
Following an emergency hearing, Reyes ordered work on the course to cease until Monday while she weighed next steps. “The Court earlier stated, ‘I am not the Lorax. I do not speak for the trees.’ The Court still does not speak for the trees. It speaks only for the rule of law,” Reyes added in her Monday order, referring to the classic character created by children’s author Dr. Seuss.

Longtime friend of TAE, John Rubino.

• Perfect Storm for Banks – And the World – John Rubino (USAW)

Analyst and financial writer John Rubino has a new warning about the financial health of the global economy, and it’s not good. Look no further than the most recent revelations of money problems at some of the biggest banks in the world. Rubino calls what we are facing is the “Perfect Storm” for banks. Rubino explains, “There are a lot of bad things happening in the banking sector right now kind of all at once. So, you do have the potential for a perfect storm. I’ll just go through a few of them. First of all, banks in the US own $4 trillion to $5 trillion in US government paper . . .. They use Treasury bonds as their safe asset.

When interest rates go up, the price (or value) of the bonds goes down. This means there are a lot of unreported losses on bank balance sheets. . .. If those things find their way into earnings reports, which they will, then you have to count the losses. That is scary for the banks because they will have to report losses, and that spooks the depositors and you get bank runs. That is just there waiting to happen. Then, there are the subprime auto loans that are going bust at an accelerating rate. . .. That’s $1.7 trillion or so the banks have to worry about.
Then, there are office buildings, and it’s kind of the same thing. Office buildings are losing value. . .. So, banks are looking at more unreported losses there. . .. The really big one is the artificial intelligence (AI) industry. It needs massive amounts of new capital in order to build the new data centers. Private credit companies have financed this . . . and the big banks financed the private credit companies. So, if the AI bubble bursts, the big banks will be on the hook for a lot of that debt. Wherever you look, the banks have a lot of unreported losses sitting out there waiting for them to become reported.”
But it’s not just the banks facing a ‘perfect storm.’ It is countries like France, where communism and Islam have joined forces in the so-called “Islamo-Leftist Green-Red” movement. These Green-Red “protests” are in their second month. Do you think this destructive violence is good for the France banks or their economy? France has just had a credit downgrade, and if France fails, it could take down the Eurozone and maybe the global economy. Rubino says, “They are illustrating the validity of the saying ‘import the third world and become the third world.’ They are just not France anymore. Most of Europe has varying degrees of the same problems. Europe is not that far away from becoming a nuclear armed caliphate, which creates all kinds of problems for the US.”
Meanwhile, the problems in France have already spread to the rest of Europe, and Rubino points out, “Europe was a bigger economy than the US, or at least it was. When you have trouble in an entity that is that big, nobody escapes the fallout. The European crisis is a global crisis.”
Rubino contends, “The only way they can survive as a culture is to have a civil war and round up people who are never going to assimilate and deport them.” They want to do the same “Islamo-Leftist Green-Red” movement in the US after the midterm elections that is currently happening in France.
Rubino also does not worry about the recent sell off in gold and silver prices. He thinks this is just a price pullback in a much larger precious metals bull market. Nobody is going to be able to pay back any of the huge global debt accumulated by almost every country on the planet. Gold and silver cannot default, but bonds surely can.

Full title: “DOJ Unseals James Comey Criminal Information (Indictment) Surrounding Leaks to Media and Violation of Espionage Act..”

• DOJ Unseals James Comey Indictment (CTH)

The Justice Department has brought a third criminal case against former FBI Director James Comey, charging him with leaking classified information about government surveillance techniques to The New York Times in 2016.

The Dept of Justice has unsealed a superseding ‘information’ filing with the court that was originally sealed on October 5th when it was filed with the court. The criminal information was filed October 5th because the ten-year statute of limitations was close (event date October 5, 2016) and the DOJ wanted to toll the statute, permitting prosecution of James Comey. {SEE pdf HERE} Comey is notified about potential charges stemming from the information as filed.
Former FBI Director James Comey and his attorneys were notified by the DOJ on October 9, 2016, that an information had been filed on October 5th. Lawyers representing James Comey then asked the court to dismiss the case; however, in the DOJ response to the Comey motion the details of the violation are laid out.

The Court records unsealed yesterday show federal prosecutors filed two felony charges against Comey October 5th in connection with a media leak. The charges stem from a Times article about Yahoo adapting its spam filter to accommodate surveillance requests from the FBI.nnWhether the indictment succeeds or not (dual-justice DC trial issue), former FBI Director James Comey is going to have to pay money to defend himself.

WASHINGTON, Oct 26 (Reuters) – The US Justice Department is attempting to prosecute former FBI Director James Comey for a third time, the latest case accusing him of sharing sensitive national security information in 2016, according to court documents made public on Monday.
The case was revealed in a court document known as a “criminal information” that the Justice Department said it filed to stop the 10-year statute of limitations on the offense from expiring earlier this month. The document filed in Washington federal court charges Comey with transmitting and conspiring to transmit national defense information. It alleges he shared classified information with a reporter from the New York Times in October 2016.
Comey said in a video on Instagram that “they’re back again” and referenced the Justice Department, but did not provide further details. “I’m still innocent,” he added. Comey’s lawyers have already asked a judge to dismiss the case, arguing it is legally improper. “I think he’s a dirty cop,” President Donald Trump told reporters at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, when asked about Comey. “I don’t know much about it,” he said.
The new case adds to the legal fights facing Comey, whom the Justice Department has already charged twice, accusing him of lying to Congress about media leaks and threatening Trump in a social media post. A judge dismissed the false statements case, while the threats case remains pending.

RFK: "There's five hundred million Arabs in the world. And yet they don't produce science. They don't win the Novel Prize. They don't win the Fields Prize. They don't win the Wolf Prize. They don't produce literature." pic.twitter.com/30hkHvfTuA
— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) October 27, 2026

The Bolshevik Revolution was the greatest human slaughter of all time. Through starvation, torture, executions and gulags, the Bolsheviks persecuted and exterminated nearly 66 million Christians.

The Bolsheviks were funded by jewish American bankers Jacob Schiff and Paul…
— Ryan (@forbiddenmerch) October 27, 2026

https://twitter.com/Alexs_jame/status/2114732097646755893?s=20

With the @SaveEuropeAct we succeeded in uniting and mobilizing patriots across Europe behind a common goal in an unprecedented way.

Now we’re turning that into a permanent organization dedicated to the protection of our ethnocultural continuity.

We want to be the #1 NGO native… pic.twitter.com/j3YjxQvLJF
— Eva Vlaardingerbroek (@EvaVlaar) October 26, 2026

Here's somebody explaining how the economy works.
Great journalist and broadcaster, by the way, Ross Ashcroft, RIP, interviewing me around 2015. https://t.co/68dgOWlOLN
— Richard Werner (@scientificecon) October 26, 2026

Also, who still remembers that back in February, Anthropic refused to let the Pentagon use Claude for war—and the left cheered them as heroes?
Now the same people are attacking Elon for doing the same thing, only this time people are actually dying.
The double standard clearly… https://t.co/ZvLkJksaQP pic.twitter.com/EoWAeJ3At2
— Skscartoon (@skscartoon) October 26, 2026

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Debt Rattle November 10 2018

Nov 102018

November 10, 2018 Posted by Raúl Ilargi Meijer at 10:15 am Finance Tagged with: Big Tech, blue wave, Brexit, Corbyn, Haley, Italy, Khashoggi, palm oil, Trump, Yelp, Yemen 4 Responses »

Peter Stackpole SophiaLoren in a Manhattan Coffee, NYC 1958

• Burying the Other Russia Story (WSJ Op-Ed)

• No Blue Wave In 2018, But A Tsunami Of Hate (ZH)

• Post Mortem (Kunstler)

• ‘Democrats Won The House But Trump Won The Election’ – And 2020 Is Next (G.)

• Federal Court Asks How Sessions Ouster Impacts Lawsuit Challenging Mueller (R.)

• Tech’s Big Five Lost A Combined $75 Billion In Market Value On Friday (CNBC)

• Yelp Craters As Much As 32% As Advertisers Abandon The Site (CNBC)

• Jeremy Corbyn Says Brexit ‘Can’t Be Stopped’ (Ind.)

• New Blow To Theresa May As EU Leaders Demand Scrutiny Of Brexit Deal (G.)

• US Crude Oil Posts Longest Losing Streak In Over 34 Years (CNBC)

• There Will Be An Oil Shortage In The 2020s, Goldman Sachs Says (CNBC)

• EU Version Of Budget Would Be Economic ‘Suicide’ For Italy – Tria (CNBC)

• US Won’t Refuel Saudi Coalition Planes Bombing Yemen Anymore (RT)

• UK Supermarket Anti-Palm Oil Ad Banned For Being Too Political (R.)

As the post-midterms wars of words escalate, the Wall Street Journal’s editors try to provide some balance.

• Burying the Other Russia Story (WSJ Op-Ed)

Arguably the most important power at stake in Tuesday’s election was Congressional oversight, and the most important change may be Adam Schiff at the House Intelligence Committee. The Democrat says his top priority is re-opening the Trump-Russia collusion probe, but more important may be his intention to stop investigating how the FBI and Justice Department abused their power in 2016. So let’s walk through what we’ve learned to date. Credit for knowing anything at all goes to Intel Chairman Devin Nunes and more recently a joint investigation by Reps. Bob Goodlatte (Judiciary) and Trey Gowdy (Oversight).

Over 18 months of reviewing tens of thousands of documents and interviewing every relevant witness, no Senate or House Committee has unearthed evidence that the Trump campaign colluded with Russia to win the presidential election. If Special Counsel Robert Mueller has found more, he hasn’t made it public. But House investigators have uncovered details of a Democratic scheme to prod the FBI to investigate the Trump campaign. We now know that the Hillary Clinton campaign and the Democratic National Committee hired Fusion GPS, which hired an intelligence-gun-for-hire, Christopher Steele, to write a “dossier” on Donald Trump’s supposed links to Russia.

Mr. Steele fed that document to the FBI, even as he secretly alerted the media to the FBI probe that Team Clinton had helped to initiate. Fusion, the oppo-research firm, was also supplying its dossier info to senior Justice Department official Bruce Ohr, whose wife, Nellie, worked for Fusion. House investigators have also documented the FBI’s lack of judgment in using the dossier to obtain a Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) warrant against former Trump aide Carter Page. The four FISA warrants against Mr. Page show that the FBI relied almost exclusively on the unproven Clinton-financed accusations, as well as a news story that was also ginned up by Mr. Steele.

[..] All of which puts an additional onus on Mr. Trump to declassify key FBI and Justice documents sought by Mr. Nunes and other House investigators before Mr. Schiff buries the truth. A few weeks ago Mr. Trump decided to release important documents, only to renege under pressure from Deputy AG Rod Rosenstein and members of the intelligence community. Mr. Sessions resigned this week and perhaps Mr. Rosenstein will as well. Meantime, Mr. Trump should revisit his decision and help Mr. Nunes and House Republicans finish the job in the lame duck session of revealing the truth about the misuse of U.S. intelligence and the FISA court in a presidential election.

What happened to Tucker Carlson’s wife is inexcusable.

• No Blue Wave In 2018, But A Tsunami Of Hate

In the early evening following the midterm elections, Fox News host Tucker Carlson’s wife was home alone when she suddenly became startled by a loud thumping at her door. The thumping came from a group of Antifa radicals, whose desire it was to strike terror into the hearts of Carlson’s family. Susan Carlson ran upstairs as the mob that CNN refers to as “protesters” screamed disgusting threats at the Carlson residence, spray-painted the driveway and continued to try to force entry through the front door, which they broke. The only thing seemingly missing from this display of intimidation and hatred were burning tiki torches.

While the radical left seems preoccupied with labeling everyone that disagrees with their political views as white supremacist Nazis, including Israel-loving Middle Eastern women such as myself, threatening displays like this seem awfully similar to the days of the KKK burning crosses on the lawns of blacks they wanted to leave town. That was the message these radicals wanted to send to Tucker Carlson, along with his wife and children, who thank God were not home at the time: leave town and shut up. As someone who has had my own personal address posted publicly by a leftist reporter, the thought of a mother of four hiding in her upstairs closet fearing for her life sends chills down my spine, as it should any decent human being.

How did we get here? Let’s take a trip down memory lane: “Let’s make sure we show up wherever we have to show up … If you see anybody from that Cabinet in a restaurant, in a department store, at a gasoline station, you get out and you create a crowd, and you push back on them, and you tell them they’re not welcome anymore, anywhere.” Those were the exact words of Congresswoman Maxine Waters at a rally in June 2018. Waters then doubled down on her calls for intimidation and harassment in an MSNBC interview, declaring that she has “no sympathy” for Trump supporters. “The people are going to turn on them. They’re going to protest. They’re going to absolutely harass them until they decide that they’re going to tell the president, ‘No, I can’t hang with you.’

[..] Former Obama Attorney General Eric Holder recently corrected Michelle Obama’s notion that “when they go low, we go high,” referring of course to anyone who didn’t support her husband’s political agenda. “When they go low, we kick them. That’s what this new Democrat party is all about.” Holder proclaimed to a crowd of cheering supporters. Or how about former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s statement, “You cannot be civil with a political party that wants to destroy what you stand for, what you care about. That’s why I believe if we are fortunate enough to win back the House and/or the Senate, that’s when civility can start again.”

As we’ve said many times: declassify the whole thing.

• Post Mortem (Kunstler)

Of course The New York Times is no longer a newspaper in the traditional sense, but an advocacy and propaganda arm of the Democratic Party. They’re pushing this desperate gambit because it’s clear that Mr. Trump is taking the gloves off now in this long-running battle. What’s at stake is whether the DOJ will prosecute the actual and obvious collusion that occurred during and after the 2016 election — namely, the misconduct of the highest DOJ and FBI officials in collusion with the Hillary Clinton campaign to cook up the bogus Russia-gate case, and the subsequent scramble to cover up their activities when Mrs. Clinton lost the election and they realized the evidence trail of this felonious activity would not be shoved down the memory hole by Clinton appointees.

The result has been two years with no evidence of Trump-Russia collusion and two years of DOJ / FBI stonewalling over the release of pertinent documents in the matter. There is already an established and certified evidence trail indicating that James Comey, Andrew McCabe, Peter Strzok, Bruce and Nellie Ohr, Lisa Page, and others (including former CIA Director John Brennan and former DNI James Clapper) acted illegally in politicizing their offices. Some of these figures have been subject to criminal referrals by the DOJ Inspector General, Mr. Horowitz. Some of them are liable to further criminal investigation Many of them have been singing to grand juries out of the news spotlight.

Whether Mr. Whitaker remains in his new role, or is replaced soon by a permanent AG confirmed by the Senate, the momentum has clearly shifted. The Democrats, and especially the forces still aligned with Hillary, are running scared all of a sudden. Thus, all the bluster coming from party hacks such as Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D-NY 10th Dist), and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY). Mr. Nadler takes the gavel of the House Judiciary Committee in January and is promising a three-ring circus of investigations when he does. If the House moves to a quixotic impeachment effort, they will find that to be a dangerous two-way street, since Mr. Trump’s legal team can also introduce testimony in his defense that will embarrass and incriminate the Democrats. Anyway, the Senate is extremely unlikely to convict Mr. Trump in a trial.

I understand the thinking, but really, Nikki Haley?!

• ‘Democrats Won The House But Trump Won The Election’ – And 2020 Is Next (G.)

Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center thinktank, said Trump had both won and lost. “There’s a split verdict. The voters who made him came back and he maintained a 46% coalition. He lost the voters he lost two years ago in slightly bigger numbers. The Clinton coalition is strong and growing stronger, but it’s electorally inefficient. Trump has kept his minority coalition together and all he needs is a slight improvement to be assured of re-election.” Speaking at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) thinktank on Thursday, Olsen noted the growing percentage of women in the Democratic party and suggested: “I think it’s very likely that Donald Trump will be facing a woman.”

“And if Donald Trump, who’s known to be ruthless to subordinates, wanted to change the odds in his favour, I think he should dump Mike Pence and select [former UN ambassador] Nikki Haley. “The biggest thing that the Democrats continually push, and the media continually push, is that he is a racist and a sexist, and that is one of the things that weighs very heavily on the Rino- [“Republican in name only”] educated person. So you say: ‘I’ve changed America and the person who’s going to continue this is going to be a competent executive who understands foreign policy and ran her state and is a woman of colour, Nikki Haley.’ It will flummox the left.”

How legal is Mueller’s appointment, and his investigation? If there is genuine doubt, the legal system should speak.

• Federal Court Asks How Sessions Ouster Impacts Lawsuit Challenging Mueller (R.)

A federal appeals court that is weighing a legal challenge to Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s authority said Friday it wanted to know whether the sudden ouster of Attorney General Jeff Sessions could impact or change the outcome of how it should rule. The court’s order directed each party in the case to file briefs by Nov. 19 outlining, “what, if any effect, the November 7, 2018 designation of an Acting Attorney General different from the official who appointed Special Counsel Mueller has on this case.” The order came one day after a three-judge panel for the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit heard oral arguments on whether Mueller was unlawfully appointed by Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein in May 2017 and wielded too much power.

The challenge to Mueller’s authority was being brought by Andrew Miller, an associate of President Donald Trump’s long-time political adviser, Roger Stone. Several of Stone’s associates have been subpoenaed by a grand jury in recent months, as part of Mueller’s probe into whether Trump’s campaign colluded with Russia. Miller defied the subpoena in May, was later held in civil contempt, and filed a lawsuit alleging that Mueller’s appointment violated the U.S. Constitution and also that Rosenstein had no authority to hire him. Mueller was named special counsel by Rosenstein after Sessions recused himself from the probe. However, Rosenstein lost his role as Mueller’s supervisor on Wednesday after Trump forced Sessions to resign and replaced him with Matt Whitaker.

The losses continue to add up.

• Tech’s Big Five Lost A Combined $75 Billion In Market Value On Friday (CNBC)

It was a down day for big tech. Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Facebook — the five most valuable U.S. tech companies — lost a combined $75 billion in market value on Friday. They led a 1.7 percent drop in the S&P 500 tech index and a similar slide in the tech-heavy Nasdaq. Amazon was the worst performer of the group, dropping 2.4 percent. Stocks fell across the board Friday as declines in oil prices and skepticism about a trade deal with China raised concerns that economic growth is headed for a slowdown. Thursday’s report from the Federal Reserve pointing to future rate hikes compounded worries and sent investors fleeing from tech companies, which are particularly susceptible to swings in the economy.

Tech stocks are coming off their worst month since 2008. The Nasdaq closed October down 9.2 percent, with Amazon and Alphabet leading the decline down 20 percent and 9.7 percent, respectively. Analysts were underwhelmed by recent tech earnings reports, including those from Amazon, Apple and Alphabet. Amazon gave lower-than-expected guidance going into the holiday season and Apple announced it would no longer disclose unit sales for iPhone, iPad and Mac devices.

Because Google, Facebook have monopolized ads.

• Yelp Craters As Much As 32% As Advertisers Abandon The Site (CNBC)

Yelp cratered as much as 32 percent Friday, a day after releasing third-quarter earnings that revealed advertisers are abandoning the site and denting revenue. Shares fell as low as $29.33, a new 52-week low, before paring some losses to close nearly 27 percent down at $31.92. The plunge makes for the stock’s worst day of trading since going public in 2012. Yelp added zero net new advertising customers during the quarter. Yelp earlier this year switched from long-term advertising contracts in local markets to more flexible, nonterm contracts. That change resulted in significant contract cancellations. Though the cancellations were expected, Yelp failed to compensate with lower-than-expected gross customer adds.

The company reported revenue of $241 million for the quarter, just shy of analyst projections of $245 million. “We do not believe that there was any one single factor behind the new sales shortfall relative to our expectations. Instead, a number of smaller, compounding issues arose, including slower-than-expected sales head count growth, a change in advertising promotions, a technical issue in flowing leads to our reps and a lower success rate in contacting business decision-makers by our outbound sales calls,” Chief Financial Officer Charles Baker said on the company’s earnings call.

Not sure Corbyn defying his own party is all that wise.

• Jeremy Corbyn Says Brexit ‘Can’t Be Stopped’ (Ind.)

Jeremy Corbyn has said that Brexit cannot be stopped in a blow to Labour MPs trying to inch the party towards backing a second referendum. The Labour leader’s comments mark a departure from the party’s official position, which leaves the prospect of fresh vote firmly on the table, including the option to remain in the European Union. Labour’s preferred option is to campaign for a general election but as the Brexit talks enter the chaotic final stages, the party is under pressure to soften its stance towards a new public vote. It comes as transport minister Jo Johnson dramatically resigned in protest at Theresa May’s Brexit plan, saying Britain is “barrelling towards an incoherent Brexit” and demanding a Final Say referendum.

Delegates at Labour’s conference in September, voted overwhelmingly in favour of a motion saying the party “must support all options remaining on the table, including campaigning for a public vote”. Shadow Brexit secretary Keir Starmer also received a standing ovation when he told the conference hall that remaining in the EU could be on the ballot paper in a future vote. But tensions remain over the issue, as influential figures such as Unite boss Len McCluskey and shadow chancellor John McDonnell are unenthusiastic about a re-run of the Brexit vote. Labour has agreed to vote down the prime minister’s Brexit deal if it fails to measure up to its tests on jobs and workers’ rights, which senior figures believe could allow Labour to pursue its preferred option – a general election.

In an interview with the German newspaper Der Spiegel, Mr Corbyn was asked if he would stop Brexit. He replied: “We can’t stop it. The referendum took place. Article 50 has been triggered. What we can do is recognise the reasons why people voted Leave.” Mr Corbyn said the Brexit vote was triggered by people who were “totally angered” by the way their communities had been left behind. He also indicated he felt sorry for the prime minister over the “impossible task” of reaching agreement with Brussels and uniting the Tory party, Mr Corbyn said: “I am a decent human being, I feel sorry for anyone in distress. But the best way for anyone to alleviate distress is to take yourself away from the source of it.”

Everyone wants a say, of course they do, both in Europe and in the UK.

• New Blow To Theresa May As EU Leaders Demand Scrutiny Of Brexit Deal (G.)

Theresa May has been dealt a blow in the Brexit negotiations by EU leaders ahead of a crunch week during which the Brexit secretary, Dominic Raab, had been expected to visit Brussels to unveil the negotiated agreement. Ambassadors for the EU27, including France and Germany, told the European commission that they would need to scrutinise any deal reached with the British before it was made public and a special summit called. The EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, has largely been given free rein until now. An “optimistic” timetable would have seen Raab arrive on Tuesday to present the legal text agreed between the commission and the British government.

But during a two-hour meeting with the the EU’s deputy chief negotiator, Sabine Weyand, the member states’ representatives insisted they would not be steamrollered into accepting the agreement secured between the two negotiating teams. They told the commission they would need the best part of a week to go through the text should there be an agreement in a sign of the growing nervousness over the prospect of giving away an all-UK customs union in the withdrawal agreement. The development makes it less likely that a November Brexit summit could be convened. EU officials have privately said that 25 November is the last possible date for a summit, and that it would need to be called early next week to allow preparations in EU capitals. May’s chief Brexit adviser, Olly Robbins, is expected to visit Brussels on Sunday given the lack of time to find agreement.

Hmmm. China shutting down? Note that this happens as the Iran sanctions are still waiting in the wings.

• US Crude Oil Posts Longest Losing Streak In Over 34 Years (CNBC)

U.S. crude prices fell Friday for a 10th consecutive session, sinking deeper into bear market territory and wiping out the benchmark’s gains for the year. The 10-day decline is the longest losing streak for U.S. crude since mid-1984, according to Refinitiv data. Crude futures fell for a fifth straight week as growing output from key producers and a deteriorating outlook for oil demand deepen a sell-off spurred by October’s broader market plunge. The drop marks a stunning reversal from last month, when oil prices hit nearly four-year highs as the market braced for potential shortages once U.S. sanctions on Iran snapped back into place.

“The market’s not tight. I think there are windows where you could perceive it to be tight, and I think the markets got caught into that,” Christian Malek, head of EMEA oil and gas research at J.P. Morgan, told CNBC on Friday. “The reality is that we’re still in a world where we’re overproducing and we’ve got surplus.” U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled 48 cents lower at $60.19 on Friday. The contract is now down nearly half a percent this year. It fell as low $59.26 on Friday, its weakest level in about nine months.

Ha! Help is on the way for Big Oil.

• There Will Be An Oil Shortage In The 2020s, Goldman Sachs Says (CNBC)

An oil shortage is coming says Goldman Sachs, because firms cannot fully invest in future production. Global oil majors are increasingly looking to invest in lower-carbon areas of the energy sector, as they react to pressure for cleaner energy, both from government policy and investors. “In the 2020’s we are going to have a clear physical shortage of oil because nobody is allowed to fully invest in future oil production,” Michele Della Vigna, Head of EMEA Natural Resources Research at Goldman Sachs told CNBC Friday. “The low carbon transition will come through higher, not lower oil prices,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe.”

Della Vigna said “Big Oils” are starting to understand that if they want to be widely owned by investors, they need to show that they are serious about minimizing the amount of carbon in the atmosphere. The Goldman analyst said oil firms only had to look at the steep derating of coal companies over the last 5 years to understand the shift in investor sentiment. Della Vigna said until a transition to full renewables is made, the interim battle will be to own a greater market share of gas-based power. The analyst said with a huge capital cost of gas infrastructure, big state-backed companies looked best placed. “We talk about the new seven sisters emerging, dominating the global oil and gas market because nobody else can finance these mega-projects,” he said.

Brussels is risking its own powers.

• EU Version Of Budget Would Be Economic ‘Suicide’ For Italy – Tria (CNBC)

Brussels and Rome are in a constant back and forth over budget negotiations but analysts told CNBC that it is the markets that matter the most. Officials from the European Union (EU) and Italy have found themselves in a deadlock after the former’s economic forecasts showed the Italian economy would grow at a slower pace in the next two years than Rome thinks. The Italian government was quick to dismiss, blaming the EU for its “inadequate and partial” analysis of the country’s spending plans. These comments came after Brussels said earlier on the day that Italy’s 2019 deficit will reach 2.9 percent and not 2.4 percent as Rome insists.

Both sides have clashed over Italy’s 2019 budget plans after the anti-establishment government promised to increase spending, challenging European fiscal rules. On Friday, Italy’s Economy Minister Giovanni Tria said Brussels’ proposed deficit cuts would be “suicide” for the country’s economy. The unyielding stance from Rome triggered a rise in the yield spread between German and Italian debt, a common measure of risk for European investors. Analysts told CNBC the standoff looks set to continue, and that the EU is laying the ground to open the process that could eventually lead to sanctions — though no EU country has ever been fined for breaching spending limits.

[..] Yields on Italian debt have risen significantly since May — when the two populist parties, Five Star Movement and Lega, joined forces to form the next cabinet. Investors have fretted about the government’s spending plans given that Italy has a massive debt pile — the second largest in the EU at about 130 percent of GDP. In the last seven days alone, the yield on the 10-year Italian bond is up by about 12 basis points. Looking at its performance throughout the year, there has been an increase of about 172 basis points. “The true guardians of fiscal discipline will be, as usual, financial markets,” Lorenzo Codogno, chief economist at LC Macro Advisors said in a note to clients Thursday.

WIll Khashoggi’s death be good for something after all?

• US Won’t Refuel Saudi Coalition Planes Bombing Yemen Anymore (RT)

The Saudi-led coalition fighting in Yemen is opting to refuel its aircraft independently going forward, ending a controversial collaboration with US military assets. The Saudi Press agency released a statement on Saturday explaining that the coalition was able to “increase their capacity” for refueling their aircraft and would do so independently going forward. US Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis confirmed the decision was made in consultation with the US government. On Friday, Reuters reported, citing unnamed US officials, that Washington considering ending the refueling of coalition aircraft in Yemen, citing both the coalition’s own increased capabilities and growing international outrage over the human consequences of the war in Yemen.

Opposition to US collaboration with the Saudi coalition in Yemen has increased following the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. The Saudi-led coalition has been accused of targeting hospitals, water infrastructure, and other civilian targets, and raids on wedding parties and the recent bombing of a school bus have sparked international condemnation. The US and UK have both been criticized for continuing to sell arms to the coalition despite their targeting of civilians and alleged war crimes.

If ever you want to know who f*cked and f*cked up we are. Supermarkets can sell a million products for which a million acres of rainforests are burned and cut down. But when one of them decides not to play that game, its message is forbidden because it’s too political.

What a lovely Christmas ad. We should have tons of those. And of course you can ask how much of it is aimed at profits, but banning it is insane.

“There’s a human in my forest and I don’t know what to do. He destroyed all of our trees for your food and your shampoo.”

• UK Supermarket Anti-Palm Oil Ad Banned For Being Too Political (R.)

British supermarket chain Iceland has been banned from showing its Christmas advert on television because it has been deemed to breach political advertising rules. The discount supermarket company planned to use a Greenpeace-made animated short film, voiced by actress Emma Thompson, called “Rang-tan”, about the destruction of the rainforest caused by palm oil production and its impact on endangered orangutans. Iceland, which earlier this year announced its intention to remove palm oil from its products by the end of 2018, said the film fitted its agenda, leading to its decision to use the film as its Christmas advert.

The film was banned by Clearcast, which is responsible for the clearance of television ads before they are broadcast, on the grounds of it being seen to support a political issue. Under the 2003 Communications Act, an advert is deemed to contravene the bar on political advertising if it is “wholly or mainly of a political nature” or is “directed towards a political end”. Iceland, which trades from 900 stores and specializes in frozen food, said it hoped the advert would raise awareness and improve people’s understanding of rainforest destruction from palm oil production, which it said appears in more than 50 percent of all supermarket products.

One of the best Christmas TV ads in years has been banned for being “too political”. I don’t think they’ve worked out how social media works just yet. pic.twitter.com/GuzS70jaPk

— Rachael Swindon #GTTO (@Rachael_Swindon) November 9, 2018

Debt Rattle October 24 2018

Oct 242018

October 24, 2018 Posted by Raúl Ilargi Meijer at 9:18 am Finance Tagged with: Assange, blue wave, Brexit, China, cover up, downside risk, Ecuador, Khashoggi, MBS, Saudi, Trump, Volcker 1 Response »

Paul Gauguin Fatata te Miti (By the sea) 1892

• The Stock Market Faces ‘Unlimited Downside Risk,’ Warns Veteran Trader (MW)

• Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker Thinks ‘We’re In A Hell Of A Mess’ (CNBC)

• Trump Says Saudi Crown Prince Could Have Been Involved In Khashoggi Killing (G.)

• How Congress Can Force Trump’s Hand On Saudi Sanctions (CNBC)

• Trump Has “Strongest Negotiating Position Ever” With China – Kyle Bass (ZH)

• China Talks Up Stock Market Amid Concerns About Share-Backed Loans (CNBC)

• A “Blue Wave” in Midterm Elections? Not So Fast (Rickards)

• It’s Too Late To Prepare UK Borders For No-Deal Brexit – Watchdog (Ind.)

• UK Could Be Forced To Charter Ships To Bring In Food And Supplies (Ind.)

• Ecuador Likely To Turn Assange Over To US – Ex-President Correa (RT)

• Ecuador Won’t Help Assange Leave UK Embassy Safely – Foreign Minister (RT)

In the absence of price discovery you get unlimited.

• The Stock Market Faces ‘Unlimited Downside Risk,’ Warns Veteran Trader (MW)

The stock market opened with a resounding thud on Tuesday morning, as the Dow Jones, at one point, had shed more than 500 points. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite endured even harder hits, down more than 2% each. So, you must positioning yourself for that tasty bounce we’ve grown accustomed to over the course of this stubborn bull market. Well, don’t, warns J.C. Parets, the technical analyst behind the All Star Charts blog. “There is unlimited downside risk in the market right now and I don’t think it’s being respected,” he wrote. “It’s not until afterwards that they ask, ‘what happened?’” When the bottom falls out, that’s when the blaming begins.

“The Fed, the Trump, the ebola, or whatever excuse du jour is being regurgitated on the various media outlets,” Parets wrote. “The only one to blame is ourselves.” He pointed to several divergences that should make clear to investors just how precarious the market situation is at these current levels. The first one is what we’re seeing in this chart of the S&P vs. the rest of the world. “The divergence is telling,” Parets explained in his blog post. “The last time we saw this was at the 2015 market top.”

Another divergence we haven’t seen since the 2015 top, and, before that, the 2007 top, is the relationship between consumer staples and the broader market. “When stocks fall, staples get a sympathy bid and outperform due to that very same lower beta and their defensive qualities,” Parets said. “With new highs in stocks, bulls want to see new lows in relative strength for staples. That’s a normal environment. It’s when they diverge that it is evidence of something changing.”

And finally, Parets took a look at what Dow Theory is telling us. This idea here is that when either industrial or transportation stocks make new highs, it’s important for the other to follow. When that confirmation doesn’t come, there’s cause for concern. “We saw these divergences lead to collapses in 2000, 2007 and more recently a severe selloff in 2015,” Parets wrote. “You can see that with new highs in the Dow this month, transports put in a lower high, typical behavior at market tops.”

Mostly critical of the Fed, of which he was the chair.

• Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker Thinks ‘We’re In A Hell Of A Mess’ (CNBC)

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, who has reached legend status in the world of central banking, isn’t optimistic about current conditions. When Volcker looks around now, he sees “a hell of a mess in every direction,” including a lack of basic respect for government institutions, a current Fed that seems to be following a completely arbitrary benchmark and a “swamp” in Washington run by plutocrats. “At least the military still has all the respect. But I don’t know, how can you run a democracy when nobody believes in the leadership of the country?” Volcker asks New York Times columnist and CNBC “Squawk Box” co-anchor Andrew Ross Sorkin in a column for the newspaper’s DealBook section.

“Tall Paul” is most known for willfully taking the country into recession in the early 1980s to finally defeat the inflation that had been strangling the economy. Since then, he’s lent his name to the “Volcker rule” part of banking reform legislation that restricts risk-taking at big Wall Street institutions. In a book set for release Oct. 30, Volcker laments the current state of conditions, particularly the monied interests eating away at the system of governing. “There is no force on earth that can stand up effectively, year after year, against the thousands of individuals and hundreds of millions of dollars in the Washington swamp aimed at influencing the legislative and electoral process,” he writes, according to Sorkin.

Volcker, in ailing health but not short of opinions, also seems unhappy with the Fed itself. Though it’s unusual for former chairmen to comment on Fed matters, Volcker said there appears to be no “theoretical justification” for its 2 percent inflation target. He said the Fed is just one of the institutions in which people have lost confidence. And he also dispels with the myth that presidents historically haven’t tried to influence interest rates. Recounting a 1984 meeting he had with former President Ronald Reagan, then-chief of staff James Baker flatly told Volcker, “The president is ordering you not to raise interest rates before the election.” “I was stunned,” Volcker said.

Developing as I expected. Adapting as evidence comes in.

• Trump Says Saudi Crown Prince Could Have Been Involved In Khashoggi Killing (G.)

Donald Trump has said for the first time that Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman could have been involved in the operation to kill dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi noting that “the prince is running things over there” in Riyadh. The comments, in an interview with the Wall Street Journal, appeared to mark a shift in the president’s view of Khashoggi’s murder on 2 October in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. He has hitherto appeared to take Saudi royal denials of involvement at face value. But on a day the state department announced it would sanction Saudi officials implicated in the writer’s death, the president appeared to give the benefit of the doubt to King Salman but not necessarily to his powerful son.

Asked about the crown prince’s possible involvement, Trump said: “Well, the prince is running things over there more so at this stage. He’s running things and so if anybody were going to be, it would be him.” Trump told the Wall Street Journal he had closely questioned Prince Mohammed about Khashoggi’s murder, posing questions repeatedly and “in a couple of different ways”. “My first question to him was, ‘Did you know anything about it in terms of the initial planning’,” Trump said. Prince Mohammed replied that he didn’t, Trump said. “I said, ‘Where did it start?’ And he said it started at lower levels.” Asked if he believed the denials, the president paused for several seconds. “I want to believe them. I really want to believe them,” he said.

Twenty-one Saudis will have their US visas revoked or be made ineligible for US visas over the journalist’s killing, the state department announced, as the Trump administration struggled to regain the initiative amid the uproar over a murder that has thrown the US-Saudi alliance into question. Mike Pompeo, the US secretary of state, said other measures were being considered, including sanctions: “These penalties will not be the last word on the matter from the United States. “We’re making very clear that the United States does not tolerate this kind of ruthless action to silence Mr Khashoggi, a journalist, through violence,” Pompeo said. “Neither the President nor I am happy with this situation.”

For now, they’re in no position to force anything. They’re in recess. By the time they come back the situation will have changed a lot.

• How Congress Can Force Trump’s Hand On Saudi Sanctions (CNBC)

As the world awaits the truth, or something close to it, about Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s killing inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, one of the Gulf’s most stalwart security relationships hangs in a precarious position. Congress and the White House have sharply different views on how to approach the diplomatic crisis, now in its third week. Legislators are loudly calling for sanctions on weapons sales on Saudi Arabia and a robust response if the government in Riyadh is proven to have been behind Khashoggi’s death. But while President Donald Trump has expressed his desire to get to the bottom of the case, he’s appeared more reluctant to punish his allies in the kingdom, whose support is vital in carrying out his agenda to isolate Iran and keep oil prices stable ahead of the November midterm elections.

[..] a former U.S. national security official with extensive experience in the Gulf, who preferred to remain anonymous due to the sensitivity of the situation, warned that after the midterm elections, the mood toward the Saudis would be much more aggressive than in the past. Whatever the election’s outcome, “I think either way there will be a more skeptical — if not hostile — relationship with Saudi Arabia in the legislature,” the former official said. “And the relatively free hand that the administration gave is going to be a little more constrained. “The Saudis are very lucky that Congress is in recess for campaigning — if Congress were in session there would be hearings, and they would not be good hearings.”

“$40 trillion worth of credit, somewhere between 40 and 50, no one knows, in a system with only a couple trillion dollars’ worth of equity..”

• Trump Has “Strongest Negotiating Position Ever” With China – Kyle Bass (ZH)

The Trump administration needs to level the playing field on trade, Bass said, and “it looks like they are doing so.” And it certainly helps that Trump’s trade push, while initially reviled by globalists in both parties, has since won the reluctant support of both Democrats and Republicans as the US economy has largely escaped any serious repercussions so far. But ultimately, the arbiter of government money and influence over the domestic economy is the yuan-dollar exchange rate. And as the yuan sinks, foreign ownership of Chinese assets is falling as the PBOC runs “a structural and more permanent” current-account deficit with the rest of the world as the US continues to institute trade barriers.

“So they can change a lot of things domestically, but their – the arbiter of the Chinese plan is their cross rate or their exchange rate with the rest of the world. China Inc.’s working capital account is now going South because they’re running what we believe to be a structural and more permanent deficit on the current account. And so, ie, their working capital, their dollar balance whether it’s dollars, euros, yen or pounds, it’s mostly dollars.” All of this instability risks toppling the mountain of bad debt upon which China’s economic growth in recent years has depended. Already, corporate defaults have surged in 2018 to the highest level on record.

With all of these factors at play, China is running what Bass described as “the largest financial experiment the world has ever seen.” “And they’ve got, you know, $40 trillion worth of credit, somewhere between 40 and 50, no one knows, in a system with only a couple trillion dollars’ worth of equity. And so China is running the largest financial experiment the world has ever seen. And the economic tides have turned negative for them. If you notice the narrative amongst the United States, it’s actually a bipartisan narrative whereby you’re seeing both sides of the aisle pushing back on China taking advantage of the US.”

Financial innovation.

• China Talks Up Stock Market Amid Concerns About Share-Backed Loans (CNBC)

A flurry of comments from Chinese officials over the last few days have been aimed at pledging support for private businesses with financing problems, as Beijing seeks to ease fears of a sell-off in stocks. The worry is that a drop in stock prices would force the selling of shares used as collateral, and lead to further market declines in China. In one of Beijing’s latest interventions, the Securities Association of China announced Monday night that 11 securities firms will form a $100 billion yuan ($14.5 billion) asset management plan to take some pressure off “share pledges” for companies with good development prospects.

In share pledge financing, companies use a percentage of their equities as collateral to obtain loans. If the stock price falls far below a level that was agreed upon, the lender will sell the shares to obtain funds, leading to the destabilization of equity markets. Despite Beijing’s latest move and other recent measures to support local businesses, stocks closed sharply lower Tuesday, giving back some gains from the rally in the previous two sessions. [..] The prevalence of share pledges is partly the result of Beijing’s own actions. Chinese banks prefer to lend to state-owned enterprises, while the government continues to crack down on shadow banking — the primary alternative for private businesses. As a result, many Chinese companies, especially small and mid-sized businesses, have turned to share pledges.

I don’t see it either. And Rickards is right about media coverage of Trump.

• A “Blue Wave” in Midterm Elections? Not So Fast (Rickards)

Tuesday, Nov. 6, is the date of the U.S. midterm elections that will determine control of the U.S. House of Representatives and U.S. Senate. The outcome of those contests will determine whether Trump is allowed to finish his term or not (see below for more on that, and which outcome is most likely). Let’s dive in… Whatever you think of Trump personally, we all know how the mainstream media treat Donald Trump. The coverage from The Washington Post, The New York Times, NBC and other outlets is relentlessly and exclusively negative. The media campaign against Trump is not normal bias; it’s more like a political jihad. Trump gets no credit for reducing unemployment, cutting taxes, boosting growth, achieving a breakthrough with North Korea, defeating ISIS and standing up to the dictators in Syria and Venezuela.

Meanwhile, Trump is hammered continually on the bogus Russia collusion story while Robert Mueller is cheered on in his fishing expedition into Trump’s personal finances and unrelated problems of Trump associates. The mainstream pundits are predicting a “blue wave” that will put the Democrats in control of the House of Representatives and lead directly to impeachment proceedings early in 2019. That’s been the mainstream narrative for months. Basically, the idea is that Democratic voters are more motivated than Republican voters because their hatred of Trump is more powerful than support for Trump among Republican voters. The Kavanaugh confirmation process only inflamed Democratic passions even further and should help the turnout.

It’s too late for many things.

• It’s Too Late To Prepare UK Borders For No-Deal Brexit – Watchdog (Ind.)

Britain has left it too late to prepare its borders for a no-deal Brexit, which would be a gift for organised criminals and chaotic for traders, the UK’s spending watchdog warns Theresa May today. Only one of 12 new “critical systems” is likely to be ready after planning was undermined by “political uncertainty and delays in negotiations”, the National Audit Office (NAO) has concluded. The failure would open up “weaknesses or gaps in the enforcement regime” which “organised criminals and others are likely to be quick to exploit”, its highly-critical report says. And the problem will be made worse by the UK losing full access to EU security databases after Brexit, which police chiefs have already warned will weaken the fight against crime.

Meanwhile, firms would be hit with delays for goods crossing the border while rogue operators would escape tax and regulatory checks, the report predicts. Diane Abbott, Labour’s shadow home secretary, seized on the findings as “painting a damning picture on the government’s lack of security preparation for Brexit”. She said: “The British people will never forgive this government if its in-fighting and political jockeying led them to neglect border security and the international co-operation needed to tackle serious, organised crime and terrorism.” And the Federation of Small Businesses said ministers were living in “dreamland” if they believed the ability to track and examine goods at the border would be in place for leaving the EU next March.

No-deal Brexit will be disastrous, much more than anyone realizes. Everything still looks normal, after all.

• UK Could Be Forced To Charter Ships To Bring In Food And Supplies (Ind.)

The UK could be forced to charter ships to bring in supplies in the event of a no-deal Brexit, ministers have been warned. The cabinet was briefed on plans for alternatives if new customs controls in France block the Dover-Calais route, potentially causing chaos in the English Channel, according to the Financial Times. Transport secretary Chris Grayling reportedly discussed the possibility of hiring entire ships, or securing cargo space in vessels, to bring food, medicines and other supplies in through alternative ports. David Lidington, the cabinet office minister, told his colleagues the Dover-Calais route could only run at a maximum of 25 per cent of its capacity under a no-deal scenario.

A department for transport spokesperson said: “We remain confident of reaching an agreement with the EU, but it is only sensible for government and industry to prepare for a range of scenarios. “We are continuing to work closely with partners on contingency plans to ensure that trade can continue to move as freely as possible between the UK and Europe.” Labour MP David Lammy, who is pushing for Britain to stay in the European Union, said: “Brexit has become like a declaration of war on ourselves. Emergency ships will be chartered for food and medicine if we leave the EU with no deal. “But at least when we’re using ration books and running out of drugs, we’ll have taken back control.”

Not the first time Correa says this.

• Ecuador Likely To Turn Assange Over To US – Ex-President Correa (RT)

The Ecuadorian government might eventually hand the Wikileaks co-founder Julian Assange to Washington even though it is legally obliged to protect him, former Ecuadorian president Rafael Correa told RT. “I believe they are going to turn over Assange to the US government,” Correa, who was leading the Latin American country at the time when it granted the Wikileaks co-founder asylum, told RT, calling the policy of the current Ecuadorian government “a shame.” “The Ecuadorian state has to protect Assange’s rights, he is not just an asylum [seeker]; he is a citizen,” Correa said. Granted Ecuadorian citizenship back in 2017, Assange is now supposed to be protected by the Ecuadorian constitution. But the current government is too desperate for Washington’s favor, Correa believes.

The Wikileaks co-founder might be a bargaining chip in an agreement between the Ecuadorian authorities and US Vice President Mike Pence, who visited the Latin American country and met with President Lenin Moreno earlier this year. Quito’s behavior shows that it has “absolutely submitted” to Washington without actually earning any favor, Correa said. His comments came a week after two US lawmakers called on Moreno to “hand Assange over to the proper authorities,” calling him “a dangerous criminal and a threat to global security.” In the letter, representatives Eliot Engel (D-NY) and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL) spoke about the US willingness “to move forward in collaborating” with Moreno’s government, mulling enhanced economic cooperation and development aid from the US. They portrayed Assange as an obstacle on the way to a bright future together for the two nations.

Wondering why his lawyers sued Ecuador. Who sues their host? Looks like they know something’s afoot.

• Ecuador Won’t Help Assange Leave UK Embassy Safely – Foreign Minister (RT)

Ecuador will not help Julian Assange leave the UK, the country’s foreign minister said, claiming its only duty was to look after the WikiLeaks founder’s “well-being” after Assange sued them for restricting his rights and freedoms. Ecuadorian FM Jose Valencia told Reuters that Ecuador was not responsible for helping Assange leave the London embassy safely, even though the Inter-American Court on Human Rights recently found them responsible for protecting him from US extradition. UK authorities are poised to apprehend Assange should he step outside the building. Assange accused the Ecuadorian government of violating his rights after they drew up a “Special Protocol” barring him from speaking about politics or involving himself in the political affairs of other countries.

The list of restrictions runs to nine pages and permits authorities to confiscate the property of visitors, who must be approved in advance, submit their social media profiles, and turn over the make, model, serial and IMEI numbers of their mobile devices. The conditions added insult to injury with a threat to turn Assange’s cat over to a shelter if he fails to clean up after it adequately. The cat has been Assange’s only companion during nearly seven months in which the Ecuadorian government has kept him cut off from the outside world, jamming his phone lines, scrambling wifi signals, and banning almost all visitors. The “Special Protocol” also states that Ecuador will cease paying for Assange’s food, medical care, laundry, and all but the most basic needs on December 1.

Between this deadline, the limitations on his speech, and the Foreign Minister’s statement, the government appears to be stepping up the pressure to force Assange to leave on his own. In July, the Inter-American Court on Human Rights ruled that Ecuador must protect Assange from US extradition. The ruling came just weeks after a meeting between Ecuadorian President Lenin Moreno and US VP Mike Pence during which they were rumored to have reached an agreement regarding handing over the WikiLeaks founder.