May 212025
 
 May 21, 2025  Posted by at 8:40 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , , ,  39 Responses »


Pablo Picasso Portrait of Dora Maar 1939

 

Putin and Trump Prove To Be the Real Power Brokers in Ukraine Peace Push (Sp.)
Decoding Putin, Trump (Helmer)
Every European Country Reinstituting Drafts, They Want War – Martin Armstrong
Ukraine Has ‘One Last Chance’ – Medvedev (RT)
Russia’s Red Lines: What Trump Heard From Putin in High Stakes Talks (Sp.)
NATO Chief Comments On Putin-Trump Phone Call (RT)
Trump Call Puts Brakes On West’s Diplomatic Offensive (RT)
Russia Won’t Abandon Ukraine’s Orthodox Believers – Lavrov (RT)
EU Quietly Complains Ukraine Is ‘All On Us Now’ – FT (RT)
EU Forks Out $169 Bln for War Chest (Sp.)
Ukraine Distracting West From ‘More Serious’ Issues – Rubio (RT)
Musk Says Congress Needs To Act To Meet DOGE $2 Trillion Savings Goal (ZH)
Federal Judge Blocks Trump Admin’s Dismantling of US Institute of Peace (ET)
Germany’s Border Crackdown Can Only Last ‘A Few More Weeks’ – Police (RT)
Democratic Officials Claim a Dangerous License for Illegality (Turley)
EPIC – Senator Chris Van Hollen vs Secretary Marco Rubio (CTH)
David Sacks’ Lieutenant Explains Trump’s AI Deal With UAE (ZH)

 

 

 

 

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“Putin and Trump are the only real decision-makers in this peace process. Europe is once again left out in the cold.”

Putin and Trump Prove To Be the Real Power Brokers in Ukraine Peace Push (Sp.)

Dmitry Suslov, deputy director at Russia’s Higher School of Economics and the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, breaks down the key takeaways from Monday’s potentially historic telephone conversation between the Russian and US presidents. First and foremost, Suslov said, the US and Russia agreed that peace must be sought through direct bilateral talks between Russia and Ukraine — not an immediate ceasefire as demanded by Kiev and the Europeans. “That is Russia’s top priority, and the United States has agreed that this should be the main focus,” the observer explained. In effect, Trump essentially stepped back from his previous calls for an immediate ceasefire, and now backs negotiations aimed at a final peace agreement, with a possible ceasefire as part of the process. As for the demands by Kiev and its European patrons that Russia agree to an unconditional 30-day ceasefire, Monday’s talks confirmed that “this will not happen,” Suslov said.

Putin in his remarks after the talks announced plans for Russia and Ukraine to start drafting a memorandum outlining the peace deal and ceasefire terms — a step toward a comprehensive settlement, not just a freeze. Suslov found it notable that Trump’s statement omitted any mention of “bone-crushing” anti-Russian sanctions threatened by the Europeans and his proxies at home. Essentially, Europe was once again sidelined and discredited, with Moscow and Washington taking the lead, the observer said. “The Europeans have once again found themselves out of the picture, once again disgraced and marginalized, given all their howling about the need for an immediate ceasefire, and demand that if Russia refuses, the United States should introduce tough sanctions on Russia.”

Another noteworthy point from Trump’s statement, according to Suslov, was his position that the need to end the conflict is “even more important than a ceasefire. “This suggests Trump has accepted, at least to a large extent, the Russian position that it’s necessary to work specifically on ending the war, not freezing it, on working on a final peace agreement, not a ceasefire as such.” Trump also expressed a desire to normalize US-Russia ties with their “limitless potential” for cooperation — clearly rejecting Europe’s posture. “This once again demonstrates Donald Trump’s reluctance to introduce anti-Russian sanctions and somehow quarrel with Russia,” Suslov said, emphasizing that the president appears fully aware “that if he introduces sanctions at this stage, he will cross out the prospects of settling the Ukrainian conflict, and the prospects of normalizing relations with Russia, and the United States will not be able to realize those ‘limitless possibilities’ which, according to Trump, are associated with Russian-American cooperation.”

Bottom Line, According to Suslov
“Putin and Trump are the only real decision-makers in this peace process. Europe is once again left out in the cold.”

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“For the time being, Putin’s and Trump’s statements have put Rubio, Kellogg and the Europeans offside. Decoding the two president’s statements shows how and why.”

Decoding Putin, Trump (Helmer)

On Monday President Donald Trump telephoned President Vladimir Putin and they talked for two hours before Trump put lunch in his mouth and Putin his dinner. On the White House schedule, there was no advance notice of the call and no record afterwards. The White House log is blank for Trump’s entire morning while the press were told he was at lunch between 11:30 and 12:30. Putin went public first, making a statement to the press which the Kremlin posted at 19:55 Moscow time; it was then 12:55 in Washington. Trump and his staff read the transcript and then composed Trump’s statement in a tweet posted at 13:33 Washington time, 20:33 Moscow time. If Secretary of State Marco Rubio and General Keith Kellogg, the president’s negotiator with the Ukraine and FUGUP (France, United Kingdom, Germany, Ukraine, Poland), were consulted during Trump’s prepping, sat in on the call with the President, or were informed immediately after the call, they have remained silent.

The day before, May 18, Rubio announced that the Istanbul-II meeting had produced agreement “to exchange paper on ideas to get to a ceasefire. If those papers have ideas on them that are realistic and rational, then I think we know we’ve made progress. If those papers, on the other hand, have requirements in them that we know are unrealistic, then we’ll have a different assessment.” Rubio was hinting that the Russian formula in Istanbul, negotiations-then-ceasefire, has been accepted by the US. What the US would do after its “assessment”, Rubio didn’t say – neither walk-away nor threat of new sanctions. Vice President JD Vance wasn’t present at the call because he was flying home from Rome where he attended Pope Leo XIV’s inaugural mass. “We’re more than open to walking away,” Vance told reporters in his aeroplane. “The United States is not going to spin its wheels here. We want to see outcomes.”

Vance prompted Trump to mention the Pope as a mediator for a new round of Russian-Ukrainian negotiations, first to Putin and then in public. Kellogg is refusing to go along. He tweeted on Sunday: “In Istanbul @SecRubio made it clear that we have presented ‘a strong peace plan’. Coming out of the London meetings we (US) came up with a comprehensive 22 point plan that is a framework for peace. The first point is a comprehensive cease fire that stops the killing now.” FUGUP issued their own statement after Trump’s call. “The US President and the European partners have agreed on the next steps. They agreed to closely coordinate the negotiation process and to seek another technical meeting. All sides reaffirmed their willingness to closely accompany Ukraine on the path to a ceasefire. The European participants announced that they would increase pressure on the Russian side through sanctions.”

This signalled acceptance with Trump of the Russian formula, negotiations-then-ceasefire, and time to continue negotiating at the “technical” level. The sanction threat was added. But this statement was no longer FUGUP. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer was omitted; so too Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. The Italian, the Finn and the European Commission President were substituted. They make FUGIFEC. Late in the Paris evening of Sunday French President Emmanuel Macron attempted to keep Starmer in Trump’s good books and preserve the ceasefire-first formula. “I spoke tonight,” Macron tweeted, “with @POTUS @Keir_Starmer @Bundeskanzler and @GiorgiaMeloni after our talks in Kyiv and Tirana. Tomorrow, President Putin must show he wants peace by accepting the 30-day unconditional ceasefire proposed by President Trump and backed by Ukraine and Europe.” By the time on Monday that Macron realized he had been trumped, the Elysée had nothing to say.

By contrast, Italian Prime Minister Meloni signalled she was happy to line up with Trump and accept Putin’s negotiations-then-ceasefire. “Efforts are being made,” Meloni’s office announced, “for an immediate start to negotiations between the parties that can lead as soon as possible to a ceasefire and create the conditions for a just and lasting peace in Ukraine.” Meloni claimed she would assure that Pope Leo XIV would fall into line. “In this regard, the willingness of the Holy Father to host the talks in the Vatican was welcomed. Italy is ready to do its part to facilitate contacts and work for peace.” For the time being, Putin’s and Trump’s statements have put Rubio, Kellogg and the Europeans offside. Decoding the two president’s statements shows how and why.

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“Comey was the man who held Armstrong in prison illegally for contempt for 7 years..”

“.. the hatred is too great on both sides.”

Hmm. Russians don’t hate Ukrainians.

Every European Country Reinstituting Drafts, They Want War – Martin Armstrong

Legendary financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong is back with an update on his big turn toward war in Ukraine with Russia. Two weeks ago on USAW, Armstrong predicted, “After May 15, war is turning up (in Ukraine) and it will be turning up into 2026.” That prediction paid off to the exact day as peace talks between Russia and Ukraine ended on May 15 after just two hours, and neither side agreed to meet again. War is already here, and there is no stopping it with peace talks. Armstrong says, “Putin knows and understands this is not a just a war with Ukraine, this is a war with NATO. If Putin agrees to a 30-day ceasefire with Ukraine, what’s that going to do? Absolutely nothing. You have every European country reinstituting drafts.

In Germany, even people 60 years old have been told to report. Poland has ordered every able-bodied man to show up for military training. They want war. Their economy is collapsing. You hear about this de-dollarization, and it’s not happening. The capitalization of just the New York Stock Exchange is worth more than all of Europe combined. That’s just the New York Stock Exchange. . . . You’ve got Macron in France, they call him the ‘Petite Napolean.’. . . Without war, Europe is going to collapse. It’s in a sovereign debt crisis . . . They have done everything against the economy.” Armstong thinks Russia will finish off Ukraine sometime in 2027 and Europe a year or two after that. And, Yes, Armstrong still thinks Ukraine will disappear from the map.

Armstrong urged his contacts in Washington to “Get the hell out of NATO.” It seems some in the US government are considering this warning as this headline breaks today: “US to Begin European Troop Withdrawal Talks, NATO Ambassador Says.” Armstrong says, “I have been told by some very influential people on Capitol Hill ‘you’re right, we agree.’ That’s what I have been told. . . . I have been complaining about this for months, and my view is Europe is committing suicide, and let’s not be part of it this time.” Is President Trump getting this message? Armstrong says, “Yes, I believe so. . . . Trump also said a peace deal does not seem likely, the hatred is too great on both sides.”

The neocons back home also want war with Russia and have wanted it for a very long time. Trump is either going to make peace or walk away and not participate. Maybe this is why former FBI Director James Comey put out his not-so-cryptic call to assassinate President Trump with his “86 47” now deleted Instagram post. Comey was the man who held Armstrong in prison illegally for contempt for 7 years. Armstrong says, “Comey has always been part of it. Just for the record, he was the US Attorney in New York. He’s the one who kept me in contempt until the Supreme Court said what the hell is going on? Then, they had to release me.”

How did Armstrong land in jail? Armstrong says, “They asked me to put in 10 billion dollars . . . to take over Russia, and I refused. It was Comey that was the US Attorney for New York, and he kept me in civil contempt, which has a maximum sentence of 18 months, and he kept me in for 7 years. He kept rolling it and rolling it and rolling it. . . . I was told if I put in $10 billion, I would get $100 billion back. They intended to have all the assets of Russia going through the trading desk of New York. All the oil, gold, diamonds, platinum, you name it, they would have it all. And I said, no, I’m out. I am not into regime change.”

Fast forward to today, and the powers in Europe still think they can take Russia and steal their assets to fix the extreme financial problems in Europe. Pensions, banks and bonds are in deep financial trouble in Europe. Stealing from Russia and gaining control of $75 trillion in natural resources is why they want and need war. Armstrong says, “They went to negative interest rates in 2014. I warned them. I said listen; you are out of your minds. You are syphoning money out of the bank reserves and pension finds. It’s a basket case. It really is. They have no appreciable economy. . . it’s shrinking, the number of actual businesses has shrunk in Germany. (Germany is 25% of the EU economy.) This is why they need war.” Armstrong says Europe is going to lose and lose badly in a war with Russia. Armstrong says if Trump gets out of NATO, the US will thrive and do much better financially than Europe. Let’s all hope President Trump gets us out of NATO before it’s too late.

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The alter ego speaks.

“Moscow is concerned that there are currently no individuals in Ukraine that have the legal authority to sign any sort of a peace deal..”

Ukraine Has ‘One Last Chance’ – Medvedev (RT)

Authorities in Kiev have one last opportunity to preserve some kind of statehood after the Ukraine conflict inevitably resolves, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has said, urging Kiev to engage in peace talks. Speaking at an international legal forum in St. Petersburg on Tuesday, Medvedev – who serves as the deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council – admitted that Moscow doesn’t like the current political regime in Kiev “at all.” Nevertheless, he suggested that Ukraine’s leaders have “one last chance to preserve, under certain conditions, after the end of military actions, some kind of statehood or, if you like, some kind of international legal personality and gain a chance for peaceful development.”

Though the Ukrainian government lacks any sovereignty and is a failed “quasi-state” in its current form, Moscow remains open to holding unconditional direct peace negotiations that would take into account the current realities on the ground and address the root causes of the conflict, Medvedev stated. Moscow is concerned that there are currently no individuals in Ukraine that have the legal authority to sign any sort of a peace deal with Russia, he noted. This concern mainly has to do with the fact that a treaty signed by the current leadership could subsequently be rejected once a new government in Ukraine is elected, he explained. Zelensky’s presidential term officially expired last year, and he has since repeatedly held off holding new elections, citing the conflict with Russia and martial law.

While Moscow has questioned Zelensky’s legitimacy as Ukraine’s leader, last month, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov signaled that the Russian side may overlook his status in order to resume peace negotiations. ”The interests of entering the peaceful settlement process are above all else,” Peskov said, stressing that “the primary goal is to begin this negotiation process,” while all other questions are “secondary.” Last week, delegations from Russia and Ukraine met in Istanbul, marking their first direct talks since Kiev unilaterally abandoned the peace process in 2022. The head of Russia’s negotiating team in Istanbul, Vladimir Medinsky, later said the two parties had agreed to conduct a prisoner swap involving 1,000 POWs from each side, and to continue contacts once both have prepared detailed ceasefire proposals.

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“One way or another, Russia will realize its aspiration, so its easier to recognize them, accept them and move forward..,”

Russia’s Red Lines: What Trump Heard From Putin in High Stakes Talks (Sp.)

Exclusive analysis by Igor Korotchenko (Editor-in-Chief of Russian military publication “National Defense”) on the content of the two hour conversation between Presidents Putin and Trump aimed at ending the Ukrainian conflict. The Russian president came to the table with four non-negotiables, Korotchenko says. These are:
• Recognition of new territorial realities (4 new regions = Russia)
• Complete Ukrainian withdrawal from these territories
• Halt in all Western arms shipments
• Ukraine’s neutral/non-bloc, non-nuclear status

“The main thing conveyed is that Russia has a consistent policy which does not change or vacillate, is absolutely clear and consistent,” the veteran Russian military observer explained. Essentially, Putin’s message was that “everything we say, we implement and carry out.” The non-bloc status point accounts for Russia’s long-standing position on the need to address and eliminate the root causes of the conflict, namely NATO expansion, Korotchenko said.

“Most importantly,” the call was meant to convey “realism from the idea that accepting the conditions formulated by Russia and their support in the US” would allow for peace to be achieved quickly. “One way or another, Russia will realize its aspiration, so its easier to recognize them, accept them and move forward,” the observer emphasized. Korotchenko stressed that the Putin-Trump phone call had no parties trying to “dictate their will” to each other, but a respectful discussion in which each side could express their position. “I think Trump at the very least heard Putin. And crucially, he was convinced that Russia is consistent in its readiness to reach a peace agreement. But this process will not come through some unilateral concessions,” the observer summed up.

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He puts on the smiley face, but this is not what he wants.

NATO Chief Comments On Putin-Trump Phone Call (RT)

The phone call on Monday between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his US counterpart, Donald Trump, marks a positive development and continues to restore communication, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has said. Talking to reporters on Tuesday, Rutte said it was a “good sign” that the conversation took place and welcomed Trump’s “leadership” in efforts to resolve the Ukraine conflict. He added that the US president had “broken the deadlock” from “day one” since returning to office earlier this year. Rutte acknowledged there had been “no discussions with the Russians” until January, when Trump began to “open lines of communication” with Putin. Asked whether pressure on the Russian president should be increased, Rutte said, “Let’s be thankful that Americans are now taking this position, this leadership role.” He added it would not be helpful for him, as a NATO leader, to comment on every step in the process.

Both Putin and Trump described their latest call as productive and encouraging. The US president said he expected progress on the Ukraine conflict within two weeks. According to a Kremlin statement, Putin thanked Trump for “US support in resuming direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.” Yury Ushakov, Putin’s foreign policy aide, said the call was conducted in a tone of “mutual respect,” with Trump expressing support for normalizing ties between Washington and Moscow. Putin said on Monday that he and Trump agreed that the next step should be a memorandum outlining principles and a timeline for a peace settlement in the Ukraine conflict. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the next day that “there is and cannot be a deadline” for completing the document.

Rutte’s remarks come as NATO members seek ways to militarize and produce more weapons to be delivered to Ukraine. In March, the European Commission unveiled a plan to raise €800 billion ($896 billion) to “rearm” the EU. The Trump administration has consistently demanded that European NATO states increase their annual military spending to 5% of GDP, calling the longstanding 2% target insufficient. Russian officials have condemned the steps being taken in Europe toward militarization, and dismissed claims that Moscow intends to attack either the EU or NATO. Moreover, Russia has expressed concern that, rather than supporting the US peace initiatives for the Ukraine conflict, the EU and UK are instead gearing up for war with Russia.

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“Western Europe wasn’t invited to the Istanbul talks at all. No EU officials were in Türkiye. The ultimatums issued just days earlier? Ignored by both Moscow and Washington.”

Trump Call Puts Brakes On West’s Diplomatic Offensive (RT)

In recent weeks, the focus of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has shifted noticeably from the battlefield to the diplomatic arena. Political actors on all sides have turned their attention to shaping the terms of a potential settlement – or at least the framework for future negotiations. This latest phase began with a coordinated visit by Western European leaders to Kiev and concluded, for now, with a phone conversation between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his US counterpart, Donald Trump, on Monday. But the centerpiece of this diplomatic shift was the unexpected resumption of direct talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul. What’s unfolding is not just a conversation about peace, but a broader contest over influence and strategic direction. Competing visions of how the conflict should end – or be managed – are colliding in real time. Western Europe is scrambling to maintain relevance,

Ukraine is caught between urgency and uncertainty, and Trump, now at the center of this geopolitical tug-of-war, is being courted by both sides. So, who’s really winning this shadow war of influence? And what happens if the diplomatic front collapses? Let’s take a closer look. On May 10, leaders from France, the UK, Germany, and Poland traveled to Kiev. Their message to Russia was blunt: Agree to a 30-day ceasefire or face new sanctions and new supplies of European weapons to Ukraine. This wasn’t surprising. Peace initiatives led by Trump and his adviser, Steve Witkoff, had stalled by early May, creating an opening for the ‘war party’ led by European globalists – figures with whom Kiev has naturally aligned for obvious reasons. But there’s a problem: Europe is out of both weapons and sanctions.

Germany still has a few symbolic Taurus missiles tucked away like heirloom jewels, but even if it decides to part with them, the numbers wouldn’t meaningfully shift the balance on the battlefield. This leaves the Western Europeans with just one real move: Convince Trump to back their agenda, boxing him into a policy that isn’t his own. That same evening, Putin made his countermove: He publicly invited Kiev to resume direct peace talks in Istanbul. With that offer, the Russian president: Set the terms of negotiation himself, signaling that Russia holds the advantage and Ukraine has more to lose by dragging this out; Sidelined Western Europe entirely, effectively discarding Witkoff’s peace plan in favor of talks not about a token ceasefire, but a lasting peace on Russia’s terms.

It was also a clear act of diplomatic trolling – inviting the Ukrainians back to the very same negotiating table they had walked away from three years ago in Istanbul, with Vladimir Medinsky once again leading the Russian delegation. Despite some trolling, Russia sent a relatively heavyweight delegation to Istanbul: The head of military intelligence, top deputies from the foreign and defense ministries, and a cadre of seasoned experts. This is the sort of team you’d expect at serious negotiations – if the parties actually shared common ground.They don’t, at least not yet. Still, the talks were more substantive than expected. Neither side stormed out, and the discussions were described as constructive. Most notably, the two sides agreed to continue talking – and to carry out the largest prisoner exchange of the conflict so far.

The exchange is structured as a one-to-one swap – 1,000 prisoners from each side: Nearly all captured Russians and roughly one-sixth of the Ukrainian POWs. The original goal was a full exchange of ‘all for all’, so the current results clearly favor Moscow. I’ve long argued that the only path to lasting peace lies in a direct Russia-Ukraine agreement. This would require Kiev to renounce its anti-Russian posture and accept Moscow’s terms. And this can only happen if Ukraine ditches its alignment with the European war lobby led by French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Just last Thursday, that seemed impossible. Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky was grandstanding, demanding Putin come to Istanbul, insisting on an immediate ceasefire, and more. But curiously, Western Europe wasn’t invited to the Istanbul talks at all. No EU officials were in Türkiye. The ultimatums issued just days earlier? Ignored by both Moscow and Washington.

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All of Russia’s culture will be protected, also in Ukraine.

Russia Won’t Abandon Ukraine’s Orthodox Believers – Lavrov (RT)

Russia will not abandon Orthodox believers in Ukraine in the face of ongoing religious persecution by the authorities in Kiev, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has promised. Speaking at a Russian Foreign Ministry reception on Tuesday dedicated to Orthodox Easter, Lavrov condemned Kiev for cracking down on believers in the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC), calling it proof of the Ukrainian authorities’ “human-hating essence.” “The authorities in Kiev have brought [the UOC] to the brink of legal liquidation… Churches continue to be seized, vandalized, and attacked, along with priests and parishioners,” Lavrov alleged. He pointed in particular to Ukraine’s attempts to wrestle control over the iconic Kiev Pechersk Lavra, the country’s oldest monastery.

“These acts are being carried out with the connivance and even support of many European countries, where the ghosts of neo-Nazism and Satanism are again lifting their heads,” the diplomat stated. “Russia will not leave the Orthodox people of Ukraine in trouble,” Lavrov stressed, adding that Moscow “will ensure that their lawful rights are respected” and that canonical Orthodoxy regains its central place in Ukraine’s spiritual life. Ukraine has accused the UOC of maintaining ties to Russia despite the church declaring independence from the Moscow Patriarchate in May 2022. The crackdown has included numerous arrests of clergymen and church raids, one of the most notorious of which took place in the catacombs of the Kiev Pechersk Lavra where holy relics are kept.

Last year, Zelensky also signed legislation allowing the state to ban religious organizations affiliated with governments Kiev deems “aggressors,” effectively targeting the UOC. The Ukrainian leader has defended the measures, claiming they are necessary to protect the country’s “spiritual independence” amid the conflict with Russia. Meanwhile, Kiev has openly supported the Orthodox Church of Ukraine (OCU), which is regarded as schismatic by both the UOC and the Russian Orthodox Church. The UN has also voiced concern about the state of religious freedoms in Ukraine, particularly regarding legislation allowing Kiev to target different institutions.

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“.. he is “not ready to put greater pressure” on Russia..”

EU Quietly Complains Ukraine Is ‘All On Us Now’ – FT (RT)

European leaders backing Ukraine were reportedly “stunned” by US President Donald Trump’s refusal to support their efforts to pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin, following a phone call between the two leaders. ”He [Trump] is stepping away,” a senior European diplomat said, as cited by the Financial Times on Tuesday, describing the impression the US president produced. “Supporting and financing Ukraine, putting pressure on Russia: that’s all on us now.” The conversation between Putin and Trump on Monday was their third public engagement since Trump took office in January, with both describing it as positive. Trump reiterated his call for continued direct talks between Moscow and Kiev, and said the conflict is “a European situation” in which the US should never have been involved.

Trump personally briefed the leaders of Ukraine, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, the UK, and the European Commission on the call, and made it clear he is “not ready to put greater pressure” on Russia, an unnamed source told the FT. EU officials and European NATO members had been counting on Washington’s support to extract concessions from Moscow by leveraging threats of new sanctions and continued weapons support for Ukraine. They interpreted the perceived shift in the US posture as a diplomatic win for the Kremlin, the British newspaper said. Before direct talks between Moscow and Kiev resumed in Istanbul last week, Ukraine and its backers demanded a 30-day unconditional ceasefire from Russia as a prerequisite. Kiev agreed to take part after the US endorsed the talks, while European leaders postponed their own deadline for a truce.

Moscow has since called for a memorandum to be drafted that would set out a road map to a peace treaty, possibly including a ceasefire. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov noted that finalizing the document would take time. Trump said following his discussion with Putin that in addition to ending the violence, a resolution of the conflict could lead to major economic benefits for the US, Russia, and Ukraine. He added that progress in the talks could be seen in a couple of weeks, but warned that a lack of results could lead Washington to reconsider its role as mediator.

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The EU starts joint borrowing. Many will not like that. Ask Orban.

EU Forks Out $169 Bln for War Chest (Sp.)

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called the new program a “once-in-a-generation moment’ after previously saying that the EU faces defense investment needs of approximately $565 billion over the next decade. The EU has greenlit a new $169 billion defense fund to bankroll ammo, drones, and critical infrastructure, Bloomberg reported. Financed through joint borrowing, it will give loans to EU members and countries such as Ukraine to boost the arms industry. The hiked spending is pitched as a response to Donald Trump’s scale-back of US defense in Europe.

Besides the $169 billion program, looser fiscal rules could unleash up to $904 billion in more military spending. Such loans would go to finance what Europe “lacks,” like:
• missiles
• missile defense systems
• ground capabilities.

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“..whatever happens in Ukraine sets the table for what happens in the Indo-Pacific,” suggesting that an outright Russian victory could embolden China to make more assertive moves.”

Ukraine Distracting West From ‘More Serious’ Issues – Rubio (RT)

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has defended President Donald Trump’s foreign policies and priorities, including his reluctance to join the EU and UK in imposing further sanctions on Moscow or increasing arms supplies to Kiev. Following his lengthy phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday, Trump told journalists that the US does not want to impose additional sanctions on Russia “because there’s a chance” of progress toward a settlement of the Ukraine conflict. Secretary Rubio was grilled on this and other issues during a three-hour-long appearance before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Tuesday. Senator Chris Coons, a Democrat from Delaware, claimed that “whatever happens in Ukraine sets the table for what happens in the Indo-Pacific,” suggesting that an outright Russian victory could embolden China to make more assertive moves.

“But by the same token, I would say there’s a flip side to that, and that is every minute we spend, every dollar we spend on this conflict in Europe is distracting both our focus and our resources away from the potential for a much more serious, much more cataclysmic confrontation in the Indo-Pacific,” Rubio replied. Rubio has previously stated that countering China will be central to US foreign policy during Trump’s second term. He reiterated on Tuesday that “every minute that we spend on this conflict – that cannot be won by military means – every resource that’s expended into it is money and time that’s not being spent on preventing a much more serious confrontation from a global perspective in the Indo-Pacific.”Rivalry between Washington and Beijing has intensified since Trump’s return to office, with both nations expanding their military and economic influence in the region and beyond.

Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth declared in February that China was America’s top defense priority, citing “stark strategic realities.” Speaking in Brussels at a gathering of Ukraine’s backers, he described Beijing as a “peer competitor” with both the capability and intent to threaten US interests in the Indo-Pacific. Washington has previously signaled that it plans to shift its military focus to Asia, while Trump has repeatedly urged the EU to take the lead in its own defense and bear the primary responsibility for future security guarantees to Kiev. Trump argued that Washington should never have intervened in Ukraine, suggesting that Kiev would be “better off” if the conflict with Moscow had remained a “European situation.”

“This is not our war… I mean, we got ourselves entangled in something that we shouldn’t have been involved in… The financial amount that was put up is just crazy,” the US president said on Monday. The Putin-Trump call was characterized as productive by both leaders. Trump said he believes Putin is interested in ending the conflict and warned that additional economic pressure could obstruct US mediation efforts. However, the EU and UK imposed new sanctions on Russia on Tuesday, escalating their campaign to pressure Moscow while ramping up support for Kiev.

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“..the magnitude of the savings is proportionate to the support we get from Congress and from the executive branch of the government in general..”

Musk Says Congress Needs To Act To Meet DOGE $2 Trillion Savings Goal (ZH)

When Elon Musk joined the Trump administration with the goal of eliminating waste, fraud and abuse through the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), he set a lofty $2 trillion goal. Now, four months later, DOGE has cut roughly $170 billion – a figure much lower than projected – in no small part due to activist judges and political pushback which have stopped the Trump administration from eliminating wide swaths of government bloat. On Tuesday, Musk said it was up to Congress to make it happen. “The ability of Doge to operate is a function of whether the government, and this includes the Congress, is willing to take our advice,” Musk said while speaking at an economic forum in Qatar.

“We are not the dictators of the government. We are the advisors, and so we can, we can advise, and the progress we’ve made thus far, I think, is incredible,” Musk continued. “Doge team has done incredible work, but the magnitude of the savings is proportionate to the support we get from Congress and from the executive branch of the government in general. So we’re not the dictators we all the advisors. But thus far, for advisors. We’ve been to the George team, to their credit, has made incredible progress.”

https://twitter.com/i/status/1924826040976777678

As we noted in February, it will be Congress that decides the endgame… You cut enough spending – even if it’s all grift and fraud – you eventually get a recession, guaranteed. That’s all Congress is waiting for cause then they use the “emergency” to vote through a far greater spending package (“will someone please think of all the unemployed”) one which eclipses all of DOGE’s spending cuts. What Musk is doing in trying to streamline the govt is admirable but ultimately it will be Congress that decides the endgame. And there things are as status quo as always.

In a humorous exchange, Musk said that he’s still committed to being Tesla CEO in five years’ time – unless he’s dead. A moderator asked: “Do you see yourself and are you committed to still being the chief executive of Tesla in five years’ time?” Musk responded: “Yes.” The moderator pushed further: “No doubt about that at all?” Musk added, chuckling: “I can’t be still here if I’m dead.”

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Pure lawfare.

Federal Judge Blocks Trump Admin’s Dismantling of US Institute of Peace (ET)

U.S. District Judge Beryl Howell on May 19 blocked President Donald Trump’s administration from restructuring the U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP), replacing its leadership, and assuming control of its office building. “These unilateral actions were taken without asking Congress to cease or reprogram appropriations or by recommending that Congress enact a new law to dissolve or reduce the institute or transfer its tasks to another entity,” Howell stated in her written opinion. USIP was established by Congress in 1984 as an “independent nonprofit corporation,” which receives federal and private funding to promote peace through education and diplomacy. The matter began with a Feb. 19 Trump executive order declaring USIP “unnecessary,” and calling for the organization’s activities to “be eliminated to the maximum extent consistent with applicable law.”

Its board of directors is made up of 13 members: Ten are acting members, appointed by the president and confirmed by the Senate. The other three are “ex officio” members, meaning they hold their seats because of their placement in the federal government. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and Vice Admiral Peter A. Garvin, president of the National Defense University, hold these “ex officio” seats. On March 14, Trent Morse of the Presidential Personnel Office fired USIP’s acting board members by email. That same day, its president, George Moose, was fired by the ex officio members and replaced with Kenneth Jackson, an official from the U.S. Agency for International Development. The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) took control of USIP’s headquarters on March 17.

On March 18, in the middle of this shake-up, USIP and several of its fired board members sued the government, naming Trump, Jackson, Hegseth, and Rubio as co-defendants. Howell initially declined to block the administration’s moves on March 19, while the case was pending before the court, because she felt the plaintiffs’ claims would not succeed on the merits. The board members and USIP president Moose protested against the firings and resisted the takeover of its Washington headquarters, but were unsuccessful. The administration eventually fired all but a handful of USIP’s staff, cancelled all of its programs. It transferred control of USIP’s headquarters to the General Services Administration and leased its office space to the Department of Labor. In her ruling, Howell sought to define USIP’s role in the federal government.

The plaintiffs had argued that USIP is a fully independent entity, and not part of the government, or at the very least, not part of the executive branch. Its statutes say the board members can only be removed by the president: “In consultation with the board, for conviction of a felony, malfeasance in office, persistent neglect of duties, or inability to discharge duties.” A board member may also be removed by a vote of eight other board members, or with a majority vote from members of the House Committees on Foreign Affairs and Education and Labor, and the Senate Committees on Foreign Relations and Labor and Human Resources. The Trump administration had argued that it was part of the executive branch, since it performed diplomatic functions. Since it is part of the executive branch, federal attorney Brian Hudak argued, Trump was entitled to fire its board despite the statutory limitations.

Judge Howell took a middle-of-the-road view and said that USIP is part of the federal government, but not strictly part of the executive branch. “Instead, USIP supports both the executive and legislative branches as an independent think tank that carries out its own international peace research, education and training, and information services,” she stated. “Defendants’ subsequent actions that flowed from the improper removal of USIP’s leadership in March 2025 are thus also unlawful,” including the termination of its grant programs and the firing of its staff. Howell ordered the fired board members and president Moose to be reinstated and may not be fired, except in accordance with USIP’s statutes. She also declared the transfer of USIP’s headquarters illegal and has blocked the government from “trespassing” on those headquarters or maintaining control of its computer systems.

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And then you open the borders again?

Germany’s Border Crackdown Can Only Last ‘A Few More Weeks’ – Police (RT)

Germany’s new border crackdown can only be sustained for “a few more weeks,” the country’s police union has warned, citing mounting pressure on officers tasked with enforcing the policy. The warning comes two weeks after the government introduced stricter border controls to curb the number of asylum seekers entering the country. ”We can only manage this because duty rosters have been adjusted, training for the units is currently on hold, and the reduction of overtime has been halted,” Andreas Rosskopf, chairman of the Federal Police and Customs division of the German Police Union, said. He warned that the controls can only be sustained “for a few more weeks.” The measures represent a major shift in Germany’s migration stance and fulfill a key campaign promise of Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who vowed to tighten the immigration laws.

The May 7 order from Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt bans asylum applications at all land borders, reversing former Chancellor Angela Merkel’s 2015 open-border policy. Exceptions are made for children, pregnant women, and other vulnerable groups. Up to 3,000 officers are being added to the 11,000 already stationed at Germany’s borders. The 2015 policy defined Germany’s approach to refugees, while also drawing fierce political backlash, with critics calling it “disastrous.” A week after the measures were announced, Dobrindt claimed that the number of rejections increased by almost a half. However, according to Der Spiegel, the number of asylum applications remained largely stable in the week after May 7.

As the EU’s largest economy, Germany has been the most popular destination for asylum seekers. According to official statistics, foreigners currently make up 17% of the country’s population. Migration remains a polarizing issue, with local authorities often warning that the number of asylum seekers is straining their budgets.The right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which is known for its strong anti-immigration stance, was designated a “confirmed extremist entity” earlier this month by the domestic intelligence agency (BfV), which said its activities could threaten Germany’s democratic order. The designation was later suspended after legal appeals and public outcry.

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They’ll keep at it. There are no consequences.

Democratic Officials Claim a Dangerous License for Illegality (Turley)

Across the country, a new defense is being heard in state and federal courtrooms. From Democratic members of Congress to judges to city council members, officials claim that their official duties include obstructing the official functions of the federal government. It is a type of liberal license that excuses most any crime in the name of combating what Minn. Gov. Tim Walz called the “modern-day Gestapo” of the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). The latest claimant of this license is Rep. LaMonica McIver (D-NJ), who was charged with assaulting, resisting, and impeding law enforcement officers during a protest at Delaney Hall ICE detention facility in Newark, New Jersey. McIver is shown on video forcing her way into an ICE facility and striking and shoving agents in her path.

This was not a major incursion, but these state and federal officials joined a mob in briefly overwhelming security and breaching the fence barrier after a bus was allowed through the entrance. Federal officials were able to quickly force back the incursion. McIver and House Democrats insisted that McIver’s forcing her way into the facility might be trespass and assault for other citizens, but she was merely exercising “legislative oversight.” Rep. Alexandria Ocacio-Cortez (D., N.Y.) declared “You lay a finger on someone – on Bonnie Watson Coleman or any of the representatives that were there – you lay a finger on them, we’re going to have a problem.” Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D., N.Y.) even ominously warned the federal government that Democrats would bring down the house if it tried to charge McIver: “It’s a red line. They know better than to go down that road.”

Well, the red line was crossed in a big way after Acting U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey Alina Habba charged McIver with a felony under Title 18, United States Code, Section 111(a)(1). The ACLU called the charge “authoritarianism” and insisted that these state and federal politicians “have every right to exercise their legally authorized oversight responsibilities for expanded immigration detention in New Jersey.” The problem with the oversight claim is that McIver’s status as a member of Congress does not allow her access into closed federal facilities. Congress can subpoena the Executive Branch or secure court orders for access. However, members do not have immunity from criminal laws in unilaterally forcing their way into any federal office or agency.

If that were the case, Rep. Alexandria Ocacio-Cortez would not have posted images of herself crying at the fence of an immigrant facility, she could have climbed over the fence in the name of oversight. Conversely, Republicans in the Biden Administration could have simply pushed their way into the Justice Department to seek the files on the influence-peddling scandal. Yet, the point of the claim is less of a real criminal defense and more of a political excuse. It is the same claim being heard this week from Worcester City Councilor Etel Haxhiaj who was shown in a video shoving and obstructing ICE officers attempting to arrest a woman on immigration charges. Two other individuals (including a Democratic candidate for a school board) were arrested, but not Haxhiaj who claimed that she was merely protecting “a constituent.” After the melee, the city manager issued an order preventing city police from assisting in any way in the carrying out of such civil immigration enforcement efforts by the federal government.

Even judges are claiming the same license. In Wisconsin, Judge Hannah Dugan has been charged with obstructing a federal arrest of an illegal immigrant who appeared in her courtroom. Duggan heard about agents waiting outside in the hallway to arrest the man and went outside to confront the agents. She told them to speak to the Chief Judge and that they needed a different warrant. The agents complied and the Chief Judge confirmed that they could conduct the arrest. In the interim, however, Dugan led the man out a non-public door and facilitated his escape (he was arrested after a chase down a public street). Judge Duggan also claimed that she was carrying out her duties even though her hearing was over, the charges were not part of state matter, and the arrest was being carried out outside of her courtroom.

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Mr. Margarita has very poor manners.

EPIC – Senator Chris Van Hollen vs Secretary Marco Rubio (CTH)

For seven straight minutes Secretary of State Marco Rubio sat and listened to criminal alien apologist Chris Van Hollen blast him for enforcing immigration laws, supporting MAGA foreign policy and revoking the guest visas for criminal protestors on college campuses. Van Hollen was trying to blast Rubio and fundraise from his far-left communist constituents. Rubio listened respectfully. Then came the moment, “may I respond” asked Rubio, and within the response Senator Van Hollen completely lost his cool, shouted angrily at Rubio despite being told his time has expired, and was forced to listen to Senator Rubio inform him that yes, Rubio not only plans to revoke the visas of the agitators, but that Rubio had just asked for an even longer list of campus protesters who were recently arrested so he could personally ensure those visas were revoked.

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“…I kind of think of this like a software ecosystem play, where we now have them tied to the American AI ecosystem..”

David Sacks’ Lieutenant Explains Trump’s AI Deal With UAE (ZH)

Sriram Krishnan, Senior White House Policy Advisor on Artificial Intelligence, joined the Monday edition of TBPN to explain why the U.S.-UAE AI Partnership is a strategic victory for the United States in its race to lead AI development against China, a perspective largely (and unsurprisingly) overlooked by mainstream media.

SRIRAM KRISHAN: We signed the first AI acceleration partnership. You guys probably read about in the press, but there are probably three important components that just, I wanted to have the technology brothers have the alpha and the have the first group on that. The most important part, the first part, is that this represents a large investment in U.S. data centers and U.S. AI infrastructure. So these countries will be investing in U.S. AI infrastructure. To make them as equal, if not larger, than the data centers and infrastructure they’re building back home. So this means, obviously a large infusion of capital revenue to data centers here in America.

JORDI HAYS: That story was kind of lost. Right? I feel like a lot of the focus was on localized investment and infrastructure. JOHN COOGAN: To break it down in language that a venture capitalist could understand. This is something like what we’re seeing with Stargate where there’s a ton of capital forming and that’s coming from SoftBank, but it’s also coming from Middle Eastern investment funds and sovereign nations investing in American infrastructure. And then there’s a whole host of companies that might come in the stack to actually build a new data center. Is that right?

SRIRAM KRISHAN: Exactly. You should be doing our talking points. I would say, look, these countries have AI ambitions, right? They want to buy American AI. They wanna buy our semiconductors. They want to buy our large language model. They want to use us. And so as a part of this deal, they’re agreeing to a few things. The most important thing they’re gonna agree to is that capital, like you mentioned, right? Like, and, and this is, by the way, net new. This is not part of any existing project. Sure. These net new deals will mean infrastructure being built out physically in the US.

So for example, if they build out X megawatts of gigawatts of capacity, yep. This will mean the same X megawatts of gigawatts of capacity in the US, and this is an important point. Because some of the chatter has been, Hey, how does America maintain its lead? Well, one of the ways we maintain our lead is everything that is being built up by our allies. We get a matching deal back home. So that’s probably the number one headline.

The second headline would be that the vast majority of the GPUs that are as a part of this deal, which is gonna be, say, hosted in the UAE, will be hosted, run, operated by American hyperscaler companies, right? And so, you probably know them all, right? These would be large American companies who. They will be running it, hosting it, maintaining, and this is actually important because this represents an expansion opportunity for all of our companies. This means they would get to win market share away from competition from other countries. And obviously there’s a whole huge amount of revenue and ecosystem coming in. And so that’s the second key point, the vast majority of the GPUs are going to be run by American companies, often by a lot of our friends in these large, uh, you know, hyperscaler companies.

And the third point, and this is, again, something just lost in the chatter, is I’m sure you’ve heard questions about, Hey, how do we make sure these GPUs, you know, don’t get to somebody they don’t need to be. So there are rigorous security protocols in place, so every GPU gets shipped over. We are gonna make sure that, a., they can’t be physically diverted. These are really large boxes. You can’t hide them under your t-shirt or your tux and kind of stick them out the door. You can’t really go George Clooney Oceans 11 on them. So one is there’s going to be a large amount of physical verification and physical security protocols.

The second is remote access. We are gonna make sure through these deals, through the framework that nobody who’s not supposed to have access, especially from countries of concern, can get access. And so these three kinds of the core pillars, and here’s why this event, right? And I think everybody in your audience who’s like a technology person, a technology brother, or in the software world, here’s why they’ll understand it. What has history taught as a software industry? The company with the biggest network effect, the biggest ecosystem wins, right? We’ve all grown up with Microsoft. How did Microsoft win with the Windows and Office ecosystem? Think about this as the American AI ecosystem.

We are getting these resource-rich countries who are critical allies in very interesting geopolitical places to basically adopt the American AI stack, right? Up and down. This means they are going to be part of our ecosystem for years and decades to come, and it essentially forms a shield from them ever adopting or using technology or working closely with some people that we don’t want them to work with. In a way, I kind of think of this like a software ecosystem play, where we now have them tied to the American AI ecosystem.

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May 162025
 
 May 16, 2025  Posted by at 9:23 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,  47 Responses »


Marc Chagall The soldier drinks 1912

 

‘Nothing’s Gonna Happen Until Putin And I Get Together’ (JTN)
Putin-Trump Meeting ‘Imminent’ – White House Official (RT)
Trump Team Has ‘Made The Impossible Possible’ – Putin Envoy (RT)
Istanbul 2.0: Know When To Hold ‘Em, Know When To Fold ‘Em (Proud)
Russia’s Top Negotiator Unveils Goal of Talks With Ukraine (RT)
Ukraine Won’t Survive A Decade Of Conflict – Zelensky (RT)
UK Sending Security Adviser To Work With Zelensky – Guardian (RT)
Talk of Direct US-Russia Clash Contradicts Trump’s Policy –Scott Ritter (Sp.)
Trump Tells Apple Not To Build In India (RT)
Trump Touts 1.4 Trillion Investment In AI, Tech From UAE (ZH)
Justice Thomas Destroys the Case for Nationwide Injunctions (Margolis)
Biden’s Autopen Pardons May Just Get Invalidated (Margolis)
DOJ Pardon Attorney Ed Martin To Review Biden’s Outgoing Pardons (JTN)
DOGE Still Hard at Work Cutting Fraud and Waste (Salgado)
Trump Admin Urges SCOTUS to Permit DOGE Access to Social Security Records (ET)
The US Has Pushed The ICAO To Declare War On Russia (Helmer)
“86 47” – Comey Posts-Then-Deletes Creepy Threat Aimed At Trump (ZH)

 

 

 

 

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US and Russia haven’t talked in 3 years. it takes a lot of groundwork talks first now to catch up, weeks, months of talking. That’s not what presidents do, they’re too busy. That said, the two should certainly meet asap. But Ukraine is just a side topic for that. And all the complaining about Putin not showing up for talks he initiated is empty blabber.

 

 

“And obviously, he wasn’t gonna go — he was gonna go, but he thought I was gonna go. He wasn’t going if I wasn’t there. And I don’t believe anything’s gonna happen, whether you like it or not, until he and I get together..”

“Why would he go if I’m not going?” “I wasn’t planning to go and I didn’t think he would if I didn’t.”

‘Nothing’s Gonna Happen Until Putin And I Get Together’ (JTN)

President Trump said Thursday regarding the Ukraine-Russia talks in Turkey that “nothing’s gonna happen until Putin and I get together.” The president made the comments as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in Turkey for peace talks with Russia on Thursday regarding the ongoing war between the two countries, but Russian President Vladimir Putin chose not to attend and sent a lower-level delegation, Politico reported. “Look, nothing’s gonna happen until Putin and I get together, okay?” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One while heading to the United Arab Emirates.

“And obviously, he wasn’t gonna go — he was gonna go, but he thought I was gonna go. He wasn’t going if I wasn’t there. And I don’t believe anything’s gonna happen, whether you like it or not, until he and I get together. But we’re gonna have to get it solved because too many people are dying.” Ukraine’s high-level delegation includes Zelensky, his top aide, and foreign and defense ministers in an effort to show Trump that Russia is the country against making peace. Ukraine was frustrated with the lower-level Russian delegation and doubted whether there would be any negotiations at all.

“The Russian chair in Turkey is de facto empty,” a Ukrainian diplomatic official told Politico on the condition of anonymity. “Because it makes little difference whether Mr. Nobody, sent by Putin, and his insignificant colleagues sit in their chairs or not. They are not the ones making decisions. And the person who does — Putin — is either afraid to come or does not take the U.S.-led peace effort seriously. “Still, we are considering sending someone at the appropriate level to at least hear what these people have to say and whether they are able to decide at least anything. If they are willing to have a serious conversion, we may engage in it. Otherwise, we will have the right to conclude that this is a Russian charade, not meaningful work for peace,” the official added.

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“Deals are all about timing. When the time is right, that’s when the president is in the room with Putin..”

Sebastian Gorka is always around. His curent job description is ‘senior director for counterterrorism’.

Putin-Trump Meeting ‘Imminent’ – White House Official (RT)

US President Donald Trump will meet his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to help Russia and Ukraine finalize a peace agreement, a deputy assistant to Trump, Sebastian Gorka, has said. The meeting between the two leaders is “imminent” he told a security summit organized by Politico. “Deals are all about timing. When the time is right, that’s when the president is in the room with Putin,” he stated, while maintaining that the right moment is “imminent.” He did not elaborate and did not provide any further details about a possible meeting between Putin and Trump. Trump is currently on a tour through Middle East, and has mulled going to Türkiye on Friday “if something happened.”

Moscow’s and Kiev’s delegations were expected to hold discussions there after Putin suggested resuming the Istanbul talks which were broken off three years ago. Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky responded to Putin’s call by declaring that he would personally fly to Türkiye and demanded that the Russian president do the same. The Kremlin answered by saying that the Russian president had no plan to travel to the country. Trump then said on Thursday that Putin had no reason to go, since the US leader himself had not committed to going.Moscow has said that its core agenda for the Istanbul talks remains unchanged from 2022, as it believes that a lasting peace can only be achieved by addressing the conflict’s root causes, including Ukraine’s desire to join NATO.

Zelensky initially insisted on Putin personally coming to the talks before deciding to send a delegation led by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov to Istanbul. According to TASS, the meeting between the two sides is now expected to start on Friday. The Trump administration has been actively pushing both sides to engage in peace negotiations since he took office in January. The US president has recently expressed frustration over the slow pace of the process and demanded both sides engage in direct talks.

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Kirill Dmitriev is Putin’s ‘investment envoy’. Russia’s Witkoff.

Trump Team Has ‘Made The Impossible Possible’ – Putin Envoy (RT)

US President Donald Trump and his team have “made the impossible possible” by bringing Moscow and Kiev to the cusp of their first direct negotiations since 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s investment envoy, Kirill Dmitriev, has said. Dmitriev complemented Washington’s mediation efforts ahead of much anticipated talks in Istanbul on Thursday. The meeting is set to happen “against all odds/fierce resistance,” he said on X, adding that if “not derailed last-minute, this could be a historic step to peace. ”Dmitriev specifically named US Vice President J.D. Vance, Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and Secretary of State Marco Rubio as major contributors to the mediation effort. Putin suggested Thursday as the day direct engagement between Russia and Ukraine could happen in a televised address last Sunday.

Moscow has indicated that negotiations could continue from where they left off in 2022, when Kiev pulled out and tried to score a victory on the battlefield with Western military assistance. The U-turn came after then British Prime Minister Boris Johnson told Kiev to discard a draft peace treaty, which had been pre-agreed in Istanbul.At the moment of writing, there was no certainty that a new round of negotiations would commence as expected. Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky, who is currently in the country to meet Turkish President Recep Erdogan, said the Ukrainian government had yet to make a final decision on how to proceed. Zelensky announced his intention to go to Türkiye in response to Putin’s proposal, claiming that the Russian leader must reciprocate to prove his seriousness.

Zelensky and leaders of European NATO nations supporting him have threatened to impose new sanctions on Russia unless Moscow agrees to a 30-day unconditional ceasefire – an idea that Russian officials have called a ruse to give Kiev time to regroup. The initial deadline on Monday has been postponed until the end of the week, pending the outcome of talks.While Moscow has stated that it will seek a path towards lasting peace in Istanbul, which it says will require addressing the root causes of the conflict, Kiev has been vague about its goals. Some media reports have suggested that the Ukrainian delegation will focus on the proposed ceasefire first. Previously, Kiev insisted that no direct talks could happen without a truce.

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Former UK envoy Ian Proud has, like so many, also lost his thread. It’s not easy.

Istanbul 2.0: Know When To Hold ‘Em, Know When To Fold ‘Em (Proud)

The biggest achievement of today’s Istanbul talks is that they are even taking place. U.S. engagement will remain vital to getting a peace deal over the line. Russia’s desire for a reset with Washingtonmay keep them on track. I have a sense of déjà vu as I contemplate these long-overdue peace talks between Ukraine and Russia in Istanbul. In April 2022, Ukraine and Russia were close to agreeing a peace treaty, less than two months after war started. However, this came crashing down amid claims that western governments, in particular the United States and the United Kingdom encouraged Ukraine to keep fighting. It’s worth recapping very briefly what was close to having been agreed. By far the best summary of negotiations between both sides was produced by the New York Times in June 2024. Those negotiations ranfor almost two months. The talks started with Ukrainian officials being spirited over the border into Belarus on February 29, 2022 while the fighting raged around Kyiv, and eventually led to the now famous talks in Istanbul in March and April.

What has changed since then? Ukraine will enter the Istanbul talks in a weaker position that it held in 2022. Western support for Ukraine financially and economically is not as sound as it was then. No big ticket economic aid and assistance has been made available since the G7 agreement of a $50 billion package of loans, in June 2024. While European states scratched together new economic aid to Ukraine in April, this cannot make up for the reduction in US support. In territorial terms, Russia withdrew from Kyiv as a concession to the first Istanbul talks and lost ground in Kharkiv and in Kherson in late 2022. However, Russia has gone on steadily to gain further territory in the Donbas since the end of 2023. So while both sides have scores on the board, Russia now maintains the military upper hand on the battlefield and that seems unlikely to change. These two factors in particular were behind President Trump’s February assertion that Ukraine has no cards to play.

What has stayed the same? NATO membership is still off the table. The verified documents shared by the New York Times last June confirmed that Ukraine’s neutrality and non-membership of NATO was the central issue agreed upon in 2022. Ukraine was ready to become a “permanently neutral state” that would never join NATO or allow foreign forces to be based on its soil.There seems no route for Ukraine to resile from that given its currently weakened negotiating position and President Trump’s stated view that NATO membership for Ukraine is not practical. Although Germany’s new foreign Minister, Johann Wadephul recently repeated the line that Ukraine’s path to NATO is irreversible, most have agreed, privately and publicly, that Ukraine’s path to NATO is a fraught if not impossible one. Right now, just having the talks is a huge breakthrough

The Istanbul talks would not be happening had the Trump administration not pushed for it so hard. We don’t need to rehash the “did they or didn’t they” debate around why Ukraine abandoned the Istanbul agreement in April 2022. What is clear, is that Ukraine became entrenched, not only in not negotiating with Russia, but in excluding Russia from all discussions on peace in Ukraine from then onward. Having agreed in principle for Ukraine to accept neutral status Zelensky was pushing his own ten point peace plan. This included, among other things, Russia withdrawing its troops to the pre-2014 border, i.e. giving up Crimea and the Donbass and creating a Euro-Atlantic Security Architecture, by which he meant Ukraine joining NATO. Peace summits were organized in various countries that explicitly excluded Russia, culminating in the Switzerland event on June 15, 2024.

At this event, President Zelensky was dug in deeper on resisting any engagement with Russia until a full withdrawal of its troops from Ukraine, which was a completely unrealistic proposal. “Russia can start negotiations with us even tomorrow without waiting for anything – if they leave our legal territories,” he said. Even after President Trump was elected, European leaders clung to the line that “only Ukraine can decide what peace means.”’ I see no circumstances in which a Kamala Harris presidency would have cajoled President Zelensky to enter into negotiations. Tomorrow’s talks wouldn’t be happening unless the Trump administration broke a whole load of Ukrainian and European eggshells to get to this point. The biggest issue now is territory.

Even though he was wrongly derided at the time by mainstream media, Steve Witkoff correctly pointed out in his March interview with Tucker Carlson that the territorial issues in Ukraine will be most intractable. Russia’s decision in October 2022 to formally annex the four oblasts of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk changed the calculus. However, Russia does not have full territorial control of any of those oblasts, which are cut through the middle by a hotly contested front line. Resolving the line of control when the war ends is, by some margin, the most problematic challenge. This will be a hugely sensitive topic, and European allies will shoot down any major concessions to Russia, as they did when the idea surfaced that the U.S. might de jure recognise Russia’s occupation of Crimea.

The most obvious settlement is a de facto recognition of occupation, a Cyprus-style scenario, that does not stand in the way of Ukraine’s future membership of the European Union. Even that will require detailed agreement on issues around demilitarization of the line of control and enforcing any ceasefire. Sanctions are probably tricky, but also tractable. As I have said before, there is enormous scope to a plan that allows for the immediate lifting of the bulk of zero-impact measures, phasing out the remainder at points agreed to by both sides. The toughest issue remains the $300 billion in frozen Russian assets, mostly held in Belgium. Russia has shown a willingness to concede this funding to support reconstruction in Ukraine, including those parts that Russia occupies.

But there is texture here. Freeing up those funds for reconstruction would immediately remove the source of interest payments that are meeting Ukraine’s obligations on its $50 billion in debt to the G7, agreed to in June 2024. But the more general policy question arises, how much of the freed up funding would be spent in Ukraine itself and how much in Russian-occupied Ukraine, where most of the war damage has occurred? The U.S. must keep the pressure on to ensure the talks stay on track. A U.S. presence in Istanbul will be vital, to prevent, in particular, Ukraine from bailing on the talks. That’s why sending Steve Witkoff and Keith Kellogg makes sense.

The former is trusted by the Russian side while the latter has built relationships in Ukraine. Their presence serves to keep the process moving forward until a deal can be pushed over the line and the fighting can stop. Bear in mind that the 2022 talks ran for a month and a half and the circumstances have materially changed as I have indicated above. While there has been speculation that President Trump might drop into Istanbul, I am not sure that this is necessary if President Putin doesn’t himself attend. Knowing the Russians, I assess that Putin will want his own “‘meeting moment” with the U.S. President on terms that the Russian side can better choreograph. Indeed, that may be a prize for Russia’s engagement in the process, given its desire for a more comprehensive reset of relations with the U.S.

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Lots of talk of Putin sending a lightweight crew, but he didn’t. He sent those, led by Medinsky, who were stiffed by Zelensky (+ Boris Johnson?) 3 years ago. They know the territory better than anyone.

Russia’s Top Negotiator Unveils Goal of Talks With Ukraine (RT)

Moscow seeks to engage Ukraine in direct negotiations in Istanbul to secure a lasting peace, Russia’s chief negotiator, Vladimir Medinsky, told journalists on Thursday. The current effort represents a revival of the peace process he took part in that Kiev broke off three years ago, he added. Both Russia and Ukraine have sent delegations to Türkiye following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s offer last week to resume direct talks aimed at resolving the conflict. Moscow’s team is prepared to work constructively towards viable solutions. “It possesses all necessary qualifications and authority to conduct negotiations,” the presidential aide said in Istanbul. The Russian delegation also includes Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin, Deputy Defense Minister Aleksandr Fomin and the head of Russia’s military intelligence, Igor Kostyukov. They are joined by several senior military and civil officials, as well as diplomats.

Here is Vladimir Medinsky’s speech in full:

“Dear colleagues. Last night, as previously reported, Russian President Vladimir Putin held a special meeting to prepare our delegation for the upcoming negotiations in Istanbul. The meeting was attended by the leadership of the Russian Security Council, the Russian government, the Minister of Defense, the Chief of the General Staff, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, as well as the heads of state security, intelligence, and the commanders of all Russian armed forces groups participating in the military operation [against Kiev]. Members of the delegation present here also took part in the meeting.

Foreign policy and security matters were discussed, with additional reports presented on the state of the economy and the defense industry. The Minister of Defense, the Chief of the General Staff, and all commanders of Russian army groups involved in the military operation [against Kiev] reported on the situation in the combat zone. A detailed joint discussion followed. Based on the participants’ reports, the president issued instructions and outlined the negotiation position for the Russian delegation in Istanbul.

We view these talks as a continuation of the peace process in Istanbul, which was unfortunately interrupted by the Ukrainian side three years ago. Our official delegation has been approved by presidential order and possesses all necessary qualifications and authority to conduct negotiations. The delegation is adopting a constructive approach, focused on finding viable solutions and areas of common ground. The aim of direct negotiations with the Ukrainian side is ultimately to secure lasting peace by addressing the fundamental root causes of the conflict.

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“..Zakharova has also stressed that there was never any talk of Putin travelling to Türkiye for the talks and branded Zelensky a “clown” ..”

Ukraine Won’t Survive A Decade Of Conflict – Zelensky (RT)

Vladimir Zelensky has said that although he does not know how long the conflict with Russia will last, his country would not be able to survive another ten years of fighting. Speaking to the French newspaper Liberation, the Ukrainian leader conveyed his insistence on a personal meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Türkiye to discuss an exchange of all prisoners and establishing a ceasefire.On Sunday, Putin proposed restarting direct peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, which were unilaterally abandoned by Kiev in 2022. The president stated that Moscow would send a delegation to Istanbul to engage with the Ukrainian side, stressing that Russia is set on “serious negotiation” that would contribute to a “long-term sustainable peace” and address the root causes of the conflict.

Zelensky, who had previously ruled out any negotiations with Moscow, welcomed the proposed talks in Istanbul and has personally traveled to Türkiye to potentially take part in the meeting. Ahead of the talks, he admitted to Liberation that Ukrainians have been growing tired of the conflict and that talks on ending the fighting have given people some hope. Asked if he should instead be preparing his citizens for another ten years of war, Zelensky stressed that “Ukraine wouldn’t survive” another decade of conflict. “I look at the morale of the population, what people want. I look at our economy… It’s costly for everyone,” Zelensky said. “In fact, this war can’t last very long,” he predicted. At the same time, the Ukrainian leader has dismissed the delegation sent by Russia to the talks as “props,” insisting on personally meeting with Putin. Moscow has slammed Zelensky’s position, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov calling Zelensky a “pathetic person.”

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova has also stressed that there was never any talk of Putin travelling to Türkiye for the talks and branded Zelensky a “clown” with no right to dismiss professionals in any field as “props.” Meanwhile, Medinsky, who is leading Moscow’s delegation in Istanbul, has stated that Russia is ready for dialogue with Ukraine and is prepared for “possible compromises” in reaching a peace deal. “We are in a working mood,” the presidential aide said. On Thursday, after meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Zelensky stated that he would have “nothing to do” at the talks without Putin’s participation and said that Ukraine’s delegation in Istanbul would instead be led by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov. He added that Kiev is engaging in the negotiations “out of respect for [US President Donald] Trump and Erdogan.”

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“..Powell’s advice is expected to focus on making sure that Zelensky does not do “anything that alienates Trump”.

So his job is to stoke up the fire whenever Trump mentions peace.

UK Sending Security Adviser To Work With Zelensky – Guardian (RT)

London is reportedly sending an adviser to Istanbul to give its recommendations to Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky ahead of talks with Russia, the Guardian reported on Wednesday. On Sunday, Russian President Vladimir Putin offered to restart direct negotiations with Kiev to find a peaceful resolution to the Ukraine conflict. While Zelensky had previously ruled out talks with Moscow, he welcomed the proposal and agreed to personally travel to Türkiye to take part. Moscow has barred Western European leaders from participating in the negotiations, accusing them of a biased approach to the conflict and trying to prolong the fighting. Nevertheless, the UK is reportedly sending Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s security adviser, Jonathan Powell, to meet with Zelensky ahead of the talks to provide “background advice” on how he should handle the meeting.

The Guardian reported that Powell’s advice is expected to focus on making sure that Zelensky does not do “anything that alienates Trump” and equip him to persuade the US president that Putin is the “obstacle to peace.” The meeting is set to become the first direct talks between Russia and Ukraine since Kiev unilaterally aborted peace negotiations with Moscow in 2022 after being advised to do so by London. At the previous talks, shortly after the pre-approval of a draft treaty, former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson personally traveled to Kiev and persuaded Zelensky to abandon peace efforts and continue fighting, according to the head of the Ukrainian delegation David Arakhamia.

Ahead of Friday’s discussions, Russian presidential aide Yury Ushakov has stated that they will have to take into account the points that were already worked out by both sides in 2022, plus the “real situation” on the ground that has developed since then. In his announcement of the talks, Putin stated that Russia is set on “serious negotiations” with Ukraine and is seeking a “long-term, sustainable peace” that would address the root causes of the conflict. He also suggested that Friday’s meeting could yield “a new ceasefire” that could pave the way for a comprehensive peace settlement, depending on the decisions of “the Ukrainian authorities and their supervisors.”

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True enough, but I haven’t heard such talk recently.

Talk of Direct US-Russia Clash Contradicts Trump’s Policy –Scott Ritter (Sp.)

There are “several plausible pathways” for the Ukraine conflict to escalate into a direct US-Russia war, claimed Gen. Gregory Guillot, head of US Northern Command, who labeled Russia as one of the US’ “principal adversaries.” Is this a veiled threat – or just the Pentagon beating the drums of war again? This statement signals brewing tensions within the Pentagon, military analyst and former Marine Corps intelligence officer Scott Ritter tells Sputnik. However, it’s just a “speculative pronouncement,” not reflective of Trump-era defense policy, according to the pundit. Ritter was struck by the fact that: • Guillot is speculating on a conflict beyond his remit, which belongs to US strategic command. • His stance contradicts Trump’s, who acknowledged Russia’s special military operation was provoked by NATO expansion:

“We had Trump say that there was justification for Russia’s actions, that they understood that the expansion of NATO served as a provocation,” Ritter stresses. What else rings the alarm bells of the Pentagon’s warmongering? Guillot also claimed the US could be drawn into a “direct military conflict” with Iran, China, or North Korea. He went even so far as to claim that “war with one adversary could quickly expand into war with an enemy coalition.”

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“..Trump’s latest directive to Apple to cease manufacturing in India oversimplifies the complexities of global supply chains and risks unintended economic consequences..”

i.e. $3,000 iPhones.

Trump Tells Apple Not To Build In India (RT)

US President Donald Trump has advised Apple CEO Tim Cook to avoid expanding the company’s manufacturing operations in India, according to reports. “I had a little problem with Tim Cook yesterday,” Trump was cited as saying in Doha on Thursday by CNBC. “I said to him, ‘my friend, I treated you very good. You’re coming here with $500 billion, but now I hear you’re building all over India.’ I don’t want you building in India.” The US president added, “I said to Tim, I said, ‘Tim look, we treated you really good, we put up with all the plants that you build in China for years, now you got build us. We’re not interested in you building in India, India can take care of themselves … we want you to build here.’” Trump claimed that as a result of his conversation with Cook, Apple would increase its production in the US, according to CNBC.

Apple has been expanding its operations in India, where it is ramping up its local production. Reuters reported in April that Apple planned to manufacture the majority of iPhones sold in the US in India by the end of 2026. Earlier this month, local media reported that Apple told India’s Ministry of Communications that it planned to move the assembly of all iPhones to the country from China. Industry watchers believe Trump’s latest directive to Apple to cease manufacturing in India oversimplifies the complexities of global supply chains and risks unintended economic consequences. Establishing iPhone manufacturing in the US, where Apple lacks existing facilities, would require significant time and investment, Sonam Chandwani, managing partner at KS Legal & Associates, told RT.

On Tuesday, India approached the World Trade Organization (WTO) with a proposal to impose retaliatory duties against the US over American tariffs on steel and aluminum.The move comes after the US imposed a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports in March, which was an extension of measures initially introduced in 2018 during Trump’s first term as president. New Delhi is currently putting the finishing touches to a bilateral trade deal with Washington. US Vice President J.D. Vance announced last month that the two countries have agreed on terms for bilateral trade negotiations, calling it a roadmap to a final deal.

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AI is the only game in town.

Trump Touts 1.4 Trillion Investment In AI, Tech From UAE (ZH)

After the several massive announcements and deals to come out of Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia and Qatar, developments during the last leg of the US President’s Gulf tour in United Arab Emirates actually seem a bit humdrum by comparison. But the visuals and spare no expenses official welcome and ceremonial events have certainly been interesting…

Among the more notable statements has been Trump’s touting a 1.4 trillion… yes that’s trillion… investment in AI and other tech sectors from the Emirates. The White House had previewed this longtime in the works deal as related to artificial intelligence infrastructure, semiconductors, energy and manufacturing.Further, Emirates Global Aluminum will “invest in the first new aluminium smelter in the United States in 35 years, which would nearly double US domestic aluminium production.”

According to more developments out of the UAE:
• The White House said that Trump and Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani signed agreements that would “generate an economic exchange worth at least $1.2 trillion”.
• The agreements are said to include a $96bn deal with Qatar Airways to buy up to 210 Boeing 787 Dreamliner and 777X aeroplanes, and a statement of intent for $38bn in investments at Qatar’s Al Udeid Airbase and other air defence capabilities.
• A meeting is scheduled for later today of US, Turkish and Syrian officials to discuss details of Trump’s announced dropping of sanctions against Syria.
• Trump’s three-country tour of the Gulf state region will conclude in the United Arab Emirates on Thursday.

Amid lots of awards ceremonies, accolades, and a state dinner…Trump has also been filling in more details of fresh arms deals inked with Qatar. “Yesterday we signed an agreement for Qatar to purchase $42bn-worth of the finest American military hardware including THAAD missile batteries,” he said Thursday while speaking to US troops at Al Udeid airbase.The commander-in-chief further detailed that the deal includes “Pegasus refueling aircraft, Desert Vipers, light armored vehicles, amphibious combat vehicles, the MQ-9B and the Sky Guardian drones.” As for Qatar, the president says he’s still ready to accept a donated jet from the tiny oil and gas rich country, a flying palace of a future Air Force One, which Dems have been warning would be a violation of the US Constitution’s prohibition on foreign gifts. Certainly he’ll come back to Washington awaiting immense controversy and backlash from the corporate media and his political enemies.

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“So we survived until the 1960s without universal injunction?” he asked.

Justice Thomas Destroys the Case for Nationwide Injunctions (Margolis)

During Supreme Court oral arguments in the Trump v. CASA, Washington, and New Jersey cases, Justice Clarence Thomas delivered a surgical takedown of the legal rationale for nationwide injunctions, using just one line. The case centers around whether lower courts can issue sweeping injunctions that block federal policies nationwide, even when only a handful of plaintiffs are before the court. Representing the United States, Solicitor General D. John Sauer argued that such broad orders violate established legal norms and Supreme Court precedent. “We believe that the best reading of that is what you said in Trump against Hawaii, which is that Wirtz in 1963 was really the first universal injunction,” Sauer told the Court. “There’s a dispute about Perkins against Lukens Oil going back to 1940. And of course, we point to the Court’s opinion that reversed that universal injunction issued by the D.C. Circuit and said it’s profoundly wrong.”

Sauer continued, listing key precedents that have rejected expansive injunctive relief. “If you look at the cases that either party cite, you see a common theme. The cases that we cite — like National Treasury Employees Union, Perkins, Frothingham, and Massachusetts v. Mellon, going back to Scott v. Donald — in all of those, those are cases where the Court considered and addressed the sort of universal — well, in that case, statewide — provision of injunctive relief.” He emphasized, “When the Court has considered and addressed this, it has consistently said, ‘You have to limit the remedy to the plaintiffs appearing in court and complaining of that remedy.’” That’s when Justice Thomas stepped in and cut through the legal weeds with a devastatingly simple observation. “So we survived until the 1960s without universal injunction?” he asked.

Sauer didn’t hesitate: “That’s exactly correct. And in fact, those were very limited, very rare, even in the 1960s.” He went on to explain that nationwide injunctions didn’t truly explode until 2007. “In our cert petition in Summers v. Rhode Island Institute, we pointed out that the Ninth Circuit had started doing this in a whole bunch of cases involving environmental claims.” Thomas’s concise question — “So we survived until the 1960s without universal injunction?” — hit the heart of the issue. With that simple question, he challenged the idea that such drastic judicial remedies were historically essential, even during one of the most tumultuous and morally urgent periods in American history: the civil rights era, a time when federal courts began issuing broader remedies to dismantle Jim Crow laws and enforce desegregation.

In other words, if the courts managed to confront segregation, enforce Brown v. Board of Education, and make tremendous progress for civil rights without needing to impose blanket nationwide injunctions, then why are they supposedly necessary today over what amounts to policy disputes? In just one sentence, Thomas accomplished what pages of legal briefs failed to do. He exposed the historical and constitutional weakness of the left’s favorite legal tactic.

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“When these people, like the January 6 Committee and particularly Adam Schiff, are charged and try defending their bogus pardon, then we will start to learn who was really running the White House..”

Biden’s Autopen Pardons May Just Get Invalidated (Margolis)

Ed Martin, the new DOJ pardon attorney and head of the Weaponization Working Group, isn’t wasting time. This week, he announced a review of the shady “autopen” pardons Joe Biden’s team rushed through in its final days. “These deserve some scrutiny,” he said. That’s an understatement. As PJ Media has previously reported, Biden’s White House frequently used an autopen to sign executive orders and pardons, which raised serious doubts as to whether Biden was even involved in the process. In March, the Oversight Project dropped a bombshell memo detailing 32 instances where the Biden White House used an autopen to sign off on clemency warrants — pardons and commutations that impacted thousands, including preemptive pardons for members of the January 6 Committee. The report raises a chilling question: Were these acts of mercy issued by a president or by a rogue staffer who had no constitutional authority to do so?

“They need scrutiny because we want pardons to matter, and to be accepted, and to be something that’s used correctly. So I do think we’re going to take a hard look at how they went and what they did,” Martin said. The Blaze has more:”The Justice Department’s probe could spell trouble for controversial Biden pardonees such as Anthony Fauci, retired Gen. Mark Milley, members of the Biden clan, and former members of the House Jan. 6 select committee — including Liz Cheney, Adam Kinzinger, Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), and Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.), whom President Donald Trump and other Republicans have faulted for various alleged crimes and improprieties. For instance, Trump has suggested that Milley may have committed “treason.”

While previously serving as Trump’s most senior uniformed adviser, Milley called his communist Chinese counterpart, communist Gen. Li Zuocheng, on two occasions — four days before the 2020 election and on Jan. 8, 2021 — to reassure Zuocheng that he would provide him with actionable warnings should Trump decide to attack. Milley received a pardon just hours before former President Joe Biden left office. Fauci, the fifth director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, received a “full and unconditional” pass for possible federal crimes going back to Jan. 1, 2014 — around the time the Obama administration supposedly halted funding for dangerous gain-of-function research. “The American people were promised accountability, and I think Ed Martin is our best shot at it,” Mike Howell, president of the Oversight Project, told The Blaze.

“These pardons are fake and invalid, and the president has already said that is his view.” He’s right. Martin’s investigation may be the first serious step toward cleaning up the mess that Biden left behind. “When these people, like the January 6 Committee and particularly Adam Schiff, are charged and try defending their bogus pardon, then we will start to learn who was really running the White House,” Howell added. “We need to answer the question everyone is asking: Who was running the government the last four years?” The presidential autopen has been around since the 1950s, but its use has always raised legal eyebrows. In 2013, Barack Obama became the first president to sign a bill into law with an autopen while vacationing in Hawaii. His office leaned on a 30-page memo from George W. Bush’s legal team claiming it was fine as long as the president authorized it. But Biden’s situation is far murkier. What no one seems to know is who was operating the autopen and whether Biden even knew it was being used.

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“On Biden’s last day in office, he pardoned his brother Jim, his sister-in-law Sara, his sister Valerie and her husband, John Owens, his brother Francis, Dr. Anthony Fauci, retired Gen. Mark Milley, and members of the House Jan. 6 committee.”

DOJ Pardon Attorney Ed Martin To Review Biden’s Outgoing Pardons (JTN)

Ed Martin, who is leaving his Trump appointment as interim U.S. Attorney for Washington, D.C., to become the Justice Department’s U.S. pardon attorney, said that he will review former President Biden’s outgoing pardons. “I do think that the Biden pardons need some scrutiny,” Martin told ABC News on Tuesday. “And they need scrutiny because we want pardons to matter and to be accepted and to be something that’s used correctly. So I do think we’re going to take a hard look at how they went and what they did. “If they’re null and void, I’m not sure how that operates, but I can tell you we’ve had already, I’ve had in my current position, or my position as US Attorney, we had been taking a look at some of the conduct surrounding the pardons and the Biden White House.”

In addition to the pardon attorney post, Martin will be the director of the department’s Weaponization Working Group. President Trump pulled Martin’s nomination for U.S. Attorney for Washington, D.C., because Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., said he would not support it, over Martin’s involvement in the defense of people who breached the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, according to NBC News. Tillis is a member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, which was overseeing Martin’s nomination. His no vote would have effectively prevented Martin’s from getting a final confirmation vote. The DOJ attorney said that he doesn’t believe that Biden’s use of “auto-pen” for pardons is a problem, despite Trump suggesting that it makes them invalid. On Biden’s last day in office, he pardoned his brother Jim, his sister-in-law Sara, his sister Valerie and her husband, John Owens, his brother Francis, Dr. Anthony Fauci, retired Gen. Mark Milley, and members of the House Jan. 6 committee.

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The amounts are less spectacular, but the work must be done.

DOGE Still Hard at Work Cutting Fraud and Waste (Salgado)

The Department of Government Efficiency is still continually occupied investigating fraud, waste, and abuse in our federal government. Now, if only Congressional Republicans would agree on a budget that includes all these necessary cuts. On May 12, DOGE’s X account provided a contract update: “Since Friday, agencies terminated 242 wasteful contracts with a ceiling value of $646M and savings of $200M, including a $118k USDA contract for the ‘Democratic Republic of Congo youth climate corps coordinator’, and a $23.5k USAID contract for the ‘garden landscaping and pool services at official mission director’s residence’ of South Africa.” Obviously important uses of our taxpayer dollars. On May 14, DOGE added an update:

“Current year non-defense federal obligations are down 20.5% as compared to 2024. Cash outlays will follow as obligations come due. Persistent government wide contract reviews for wasteful spend, consistent with the DOGE Cost Efficiency Executive Order, are bearing fruit.” It seems review of federal contracts has been a DOGE priority lately. Earlier this month, DOGE shared, “Over the last two days, agencies terminated 522 wasteful contracts with a ceiling value of $285M and savings of $110M, including a $181k @USDA contract for a ‘technical climate advisor for central Africa’.” The grift is endless. DOGE has been investigating federal credit cards, too. Earlier this month, DOGE announced, “The program to audit unused/unneeded credit cards has been expanded to 32 agencies. After 10 weeks, more than 500K cards have been de-activated. As a reminder, at the start of the audit, there were ~4.6M active cards/accounts, so still more work to do.”

No wonder we are over $36.8 trillion in debt. Of course, DOGE also partners with multiple agencies, and the Department of Energy “has announced 47 deregulatory actions for an estimated $11 billion of savings to Americans. Previously, this quantity of deregulation would take years to initiate,” per DOGE. Energy Secretary Chris Wright issued his own proud statement on May 12, explaining his department “assembled a task force to work on the BIGGEST deregulatory push in modern history. The idea was simple: get a bunch of smart people in a room & work through the problem. We cut through the red tape to deliver 47 deregulatory actions on behalf of the American people!” What a novel idea — government actually working for We the People!

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Crazy that someone can block the elected government from scrutinizing its largest expenditures.

Trump Admin Urges SCOTUS to Permit DOGE Access to Social Security Records (ET)

The Department of Justice urged the Supreme Court on May 13 to let the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) have access to Social Security data after lower courts blocked that access.President Donald Trump issued Executive Order 14158 on Jan. 20, implementing DOGE, an advisory body that recommends cost-cutting measures. The order directed the entity to “implement the President’s DOGE Agenda, by modernizing Federal technology and software to maximize governmental efficiency and productivity.” Solicitor General D. John Sauer argued in the new filing that the lower courts have overreached and are attempting to turn themselves into “the human resources department for the Executive Branch.”

The filing came after Ellen Lipton Hollander, a Maryland-based federal district court judge, issued an order on March 20 preventing DOGE from viewing Social Security Administration (SSA) records because such access “violates” the federal Privacy Act.The lawsuit was brought in February by labor unions and retirees represented by the Democracy Forward Foundation.“The DOGE Team is essentially engaged in a fishing expedition at SSA, in search of a fraud epidemic, based on little more than suspicion. It has launched a search for the proverbial needle in the haystack, without any concrete knowledge that the needle is actually in the haystack,” the judge wrote in granting a temporary restraining order against the federal government.

DOGE’s team at the Social Security Administration has had “unbridled access to the personal and private data of millions of Americans, including but not limited to Social Security numbers, medical records, mental health records, hospitalization records, drivers’ license numbers, bank and credit card information, tax information, income history, work history, birth and marriage certificates, and home and work addresses,” Hollander wrote. Hollander directed DOGE to delete any personally identifiable data in its possession. On April 17, Hollander upgraded the temporary restraining order to a preliminary injunction. On April 30, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit voted 9–6 to maintain Hollander’s order while the appeal process continues. On May 2, the Trump administration filed an emergency appeal with the Supreme Court, asking the justices to pause the preliminary injunction.

In the May 13 filing, Sauer argued that the district court erred in preventing “the 11 members of the Social Security Administration (SSA) DOGE team—from accessing data … for purposes that are unquestionably lawful.” The district court “dictated to the Executive Branch which government employees can access which data and even prescribed necessary training, background checks, and paperwork for data access,” Sauer wrote. “When district courts attempt to transform themselves into the human resources department for the Executive Branch, the irreparable harm to the government is clear,” he wrote. When the courts “stymie the government’s initiatives to modernize badly outdated systems and combat rampant fraud—leaving those initiatives on a litigation track that may halt them for months or years—the irreparable harm is even clearer.”

Reviewing Social Security Administration data is important because the agency has “one of the largest documented histories of improper payments,” Sauer stated. In a brief in opposition filed on May 12, the lead respondent, the American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees, said that after years of honoring “its data security obligations,” the Social Security Administration “now seeks to throw open its data systems to unauthorized (and often unvetted) personnel who have no demonstrated need for the personally identifiable information … they seek.”The April 17 preliminary injunction should be left in place because it is “narrow and, contrary to the government’s assertions, permits SSA to disclose both anonymized and non-anonymized data to DOGE Team members,” the brief said.The Supreme Court could rule on the government’s emergency application at any time.

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How to spell “inside job”.

Helmer is an expert on MH17.

The US Has Pushed The ICAO To Declare War On Russia (Helmer)

On Monday, May 12, the United States pushed the Council of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), the aircraft safety watchdog, to vote behind closed doors to adopt a secret resolution convicting Russia of shooting-down Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 on July 17, 2014. Unlike the Dutch show trial which in November 2022 convicted two Russians and a Ukrainian of the same crime, the ICAO reached its verdict without the appearance of an open proceeding or of openly tested evidence. It’s a put-up job.William Raillant-Clark, the ICAO communications chief at the Montreal headquarters, was asked to provide a text of the resolution and identification of the countries voting for, against, abstaining, and absent. Raillant-Clark replied: “In accordance with the Council’s Rules of Procedure, the vote was taken by secret ballot.” He refused to disclose the resolution itself; the numbers of votes without the names of the countries; or the reason for keeping everything but the conviction of Russia secret. He answered: “The Council’s considerations based on reason of law and fact, will be issued in the coming weeks.”

The spokesman was then asked for a copy of ICAO’s Rules of Procedure. He refuses to answer. The decision of ICAO to go to war with Russia, using its aviation safety mandate to cover up the evidence of what really happened to MH17, destroys the organization for the future. It follows the destruction of the global organization for the safety of nuclear power generation, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA); the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW); the International Committee of the Red Cross; and the Secretary-General of the United Nations, Antonio Guterres.

The downing of MH17 on July 17, 2014, with the deaths of all 298 passengers and crew, was a Ukrainian government operation, backed by the Obama Administration led by then-Vice President Joseph Biden, to start the economic sanctions war against Russia; US and NATO military preparations for the Ukrainian attack on the Donbass; it almost led to a NATO military intervention. Read the full story of what happened, and the subsequent faking of evidence in the Dutch trial, in the book. This new ICAO fatality, weaponizing aviation safety into war against Russia, was inflicted by the US, the dominant member state on the 36-member Council of the ICAO. Collaborating with the State Department’s delegate at the Council, Anthony Clare, the Dutch and Australian governments promoted the resolution and pushed for adoption by the allied states.

The list of permanent and elected member states on the ICAO Council can be viewed here. The ICAO session on May 12 does not appear in the advance schedule of meetings for the ICAO this month. The Council vote which took place on May 12 is not listed in the Council proceedings for the month. An internal notice of the Council for the May 12 meeting shows the text of the resolution is “restricted”. Raillant-Clark has refused to explain. As soon as the vote was taken, the Dutch Government and Foreign Ministry issued a press release. The Australian Foreign Ministry followed. The Netherlands and Australia, whose nationals comprised the majority of the 298 victims on board MH17, sponsored the ICAO resolution. Both governments are fighting Russia on the Ukrainian battlefield. The Dutch may now attempt to divert Russian state funds frozen in The Netherlands to pay compensation to the families of the victims.

Only after the two government releases had appeared, and Raillant-Clark was questioned personally, did ICAO reveal its press release.

The Russian government issued its response on May 13. “Russia,” the Foreign Ministry said, “is not part of the ICAO Council. In its press release, this body alleges that the responsibility for downing this flight rests with the Russian Federation. However, the text of the ruling, including its reasoning part, is not available. Therefore, this amounted to a blind vote – it is quite obvious that this decision does not hold water. Once again, the ICAO Council demonstrated its political bias. It takes its decision while guided by momentary considerations. This is not the way it must operate.” “Russia withdrew from these proceedings last year, on June 17, 2024, in view of the multiple procedural violations by the Council and the ICAO Secretariat, which made an impartial fact-finding effort all but impossible. That said, Moscow’s principled position remains relevant to this day – Russia was not involved in the MH17 crash, while all the claims to the contrary coming from Australia and the Netherlands are at odds with reality.”

“The ICAO Council is not an independent body. It includes 36 ICAO member states out of 193. They get their voting instructions from their respective capitals. Most of the countries represent the West and their immediate satellites. This makes the way the Council operates a matter of arithmetic. There was simply nobody to tackle this matter in a professional manner and on its merits.”

“There is nothing new about using the ICAO Council against countries which are viewed as being undesirable by the West. This can hardly come as a surprise to anyone these days. Suffice to recall the investigation of the landing of a Ryanair flight at the Minsk airport on May 23, 2021. At the time, the interested Western countries were not satisfied with the preliminary report by the Investigative Team. They used their majority within the Council to force the team to re-write the report to ensure that it condemns Belarus. Moreover, the ICAO Council ruled that it was competent to review the Great Britain, Sweden, Ukraine, Canada v. Iran case regarding the crash of a Boeing aircraft near Tehran after a vote held behind the curtain. There was also a recent example when the Council refused to take up Venezuela’s claims in its dispute with Argentina regarding unilateral restrictions in civil aviation.”

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NB: the chance that a former FBI director doesn’t know what 8647 stands for is zero.

“86 47” – Comey Posts-Then-Deletes Creepy Threat Aimed At Trump (ZH)

Former FBI Director James Comey posted a photo of sea shells arranged into the numbers “86 47” on his Instagram account today, before shortly deleting the post.The immediately preceding post shows Comey lounging at the beach while pretending to read his own crime novel, his presence at the beach lending to the fact that this was not a hack. Many are blasting Comey for issuing a not-so-thinly-veiled threat at sitting President Donald Trump, including the President’s son and Congressman Andy Biggs:

And here is his explanation for the ‘shells’ and the deletion……you simply cannot make this shit up!!!

[..] As covered previously in a ZeroHedge piece titled “From Epstein To Diddy: Spotlight Shines On James Comey’s Prosecutor Daughter”, Comey’s offspring smell a little swampy as well. From the piece: In a thinly covered news story from December that’s suddenly relevant again (read on), New York Prosecutor Maurene Comey – whose father James Comey famously refused to prosecute Hillary Clinton for mishandling classified information & then participated in the Russia collusion hoax – joined the prosecution against Combs. The younger Comey has previously worked as lead prosecutor on both the Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell cases, as well as that of former Epstein cellmate Nicholas Tartaglione.

Maurene Comey became a US attorney in the Southern District of New York in 2015. In 2019, when she was just 30-years-old, Comey became one of the lead prosecutors in the Jeffrey Epstein case before he was found dead in his jail cell in August 2019. Two years later, she became one of three lead prosecutors in the trial of Ghislaine Maxwell, Epstein’s partner in crime and daughter of suspected Mossad operative Robert Maxwell.

Before becoming a US attorney, Comey clerked for US District Court chief judge Loretta Preska of the SDNY – who notably oversaw a long-running defamation case filed by Epstein victim Virginia Giuffre against Maxwell. Comey was also involved in the case of Nicholas Tartaglione, a former NYPD officer who was convicted of killing four men in 2016, and who was briefly Epstein’s cellmate in the Manhattan Metro Correctional Center. Tartaglione claims to have helped Epstein after ‘finding him unconscious’ (and totally not trying to kill him) prior to Epstein’s actual death. In 2016, Tartaglione suspected a man named Martin Luna had stolen money from him – for which “Tartaglione tortured Martin and then forced one of Martin’s nephews to watch as he strangled him to death with a zip-tie,” according to a statement by the US Attorney’s Office.

Two days after Epstein’s death, NY Times reporter James B Stewart, who had spent 90 minutes with Epstein a year prior, wrote “The overriding impression I took away from our roughly 90-minute conversation was that Mr. Epstein knew an astonishing number of rich, famous and powerful people, and had photos to prove it. He also claimed to know a great deal about these people, some of it potentially damaging or embarrassing, including details about their supposed sexual proclivities and recreational drug use. And so, whether this is just a case of ‘it’s a small world’ or something a little (or a lot) less innocent, James Comey’s daughter is now involved in a second case where high-profile celebrities and politicians may have been secretly filmed engaging in sexual activity with minors. Comey’s deep state tentacles make the cryptic Instragram post that much more unsettling. Might there be some hints in Comey’s shitty novel? Donald Barr’s Space Relations anyone?

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CHD
https://twitter.com/NicHulscher/status/1922833502430450150

Xifaxan

Missing link

Mad honey

Escape

Dance

Camel

Mercury and Aluminum

Pop
https://twitter.com/TansuYegen/status/1922749376956444819

 

 

 

 

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May 132025
 


Henri Matisse Bathers by a river 1909-16

 

Trump Floats Joining Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks in Istanbul (ZH)
Kremlin Issues Update On Proposed Ukraine Peace Talks (RT)
‘Stop The Clownery’ – Top Russian MP To Zelensky (RT)
Zelensky Should ‘Grasp’ Opportunity Offered By Putin – George Galloway (RT)
Trump Rallies GOP To Back ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ (ZH)
US, China Reach Agreement To Lower Tariffs In 90-Day Cool-Off Period (ZH)
China’s Keynesian Model Is Crumbling. It Needs a Trade Deal, Fast. (Lacalle)
Major Breakthroughs in US-China Trade Negotiations (Mehta)
Gaddafi Warned Them. Now The EU Is Living Out His Grim Prophecy (RT)
Kallas A ‘Tragedy’ For EU – MEP (RT)
Ukraine’s EU Entry Would Drag Bloc Into War – Orban (RT)
Multiculturalism Fail: Britain Makes a U-Turn on Immigration (Margolis)
Le Pen Pines For Unified Nationalist Front In European Parliament (RMX)
Trump Announces EO to Lower Prescription Drug Prices through MFN Policy (CTH)
How Trump’s Drug Price Executive Order Will Affect Medicare (DS)
Growing Strain in the Trump-Netanyahu Relationship Worsens (Devlin)
MAHA Hugger Mugger (James Howard Kunstler)
Trump’s Weaponization Czar Ed Martin: ‘It Worked Out Great’ (NYP)
America is Under Siege – 233 Federal Cases Against Trump – Larry Klayman (USAW)

 

 

 

 

Classify

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Rogan 2021

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Temp
https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1921711875953242455

 

 

 

 

What’s the idea? Force Putin to show up? You can achieve much by meeting Putin, but not with Zelensky around.

I seriously wonder what their advisors tell Trump and Vance (who’s obviously poorly informed).

Trump Floats Joining Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks in Istanbul (ZH)

In yet another Ukraine peace talks related surprise, President Donald Trump on Monday floated the possibility of him traveling to Turkey to personally mediate negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, which are set for Thursday in Istanbul. “I was thinking about actually flying over there,” Trump said during a televised press conference on drug pricing. The words come after Ukraine’s President Zelensky said he’s ready to be there, and also challenged Putin to travel to the Turkish capital in person. “There’s a possibility of it, I guess, if I think things could happen,” Trump added, and the caveat: “I would fly there if I thought it would be helpful,””Thursday’s meeting with Russia and Ukraine is really important,” Trump said. “I was really insistent that that meeting take place. I think good things can come out of that meeting. Stop the bloodshed, it’s a bloodbath.”

The White House is backing a 30-day ceasefire plan, in hopes that it would lead to a final end to the bloodshed, with detailed negotiations in the interim. “I have a feeling they’re going to agree. I do. I have a feeling,” Trump also emphasized. The travel comments seemed more about displaying his personal optimism on new talks. He didn’t mention specifics or the challenge of logistics and setting up proper security, which can typically take days or weeks when it comes to presidential travel and coordination between the Secret Service and host nations. President Trump is about to embark on a trip to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and UAE – so a potential Turkey visit would require a stop-over upon the return trip. Zelensky was quick to respond to Trump’s public brainstorming, stating on X that “all of us in Ukraine would appreciate it if President Trump could be there with us at this meeting in Türkiye.” He added: “I hope that the Russians will not evade the meeting.”

It seems clear that in poking the Kremlin, Zelensky is really just seeking to performatively demonstrate to Washington and European allies that he’s willing to engage in negotiations, after Trump has ramped up the pressure, and given Kiev desperately needs to continue securing Western weapons and support. It remains that Zelensky has offered no big (territorial) concessions to end the war, so likely Putin isn’t too interested in traveling to Turkey personally, for something which would likely in the end be a bust in terms of finalizing a peace settlement. The Kremlin likely understands perfectly well that this is mostly Zelensky playing to the cameras, and seeking to satisfy Trump and ‘reset’ the relationship with the US. It’s anything but clear whether Zelensky will actually be in Istanbul at this point.

Read more …

“.. any pause in fighting would allow Ukraine to regroup its battered forces and continue its mobilization campaign. Moscow has also demanded that all Western arms deliveries to Ukraine be halted during any ceasefire period.”

Kremlin Issues Update On Proposed Ukraine Peace Talks (RT)

Russia is ready to resume direct peace talks with Ukraine, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has reiterated, stressing Moscow’s “serious” commitment to reaching a lasting settlement of the conflict. On Sunday, Russian President Vladimir Putin offered Ukraine the opportunity to restart direct negotiations without any preconditions in Istanbul, Türkiye, which Kiev unilaterally walked away from in 2022. However, Ukraine, backed by several European nations, has demanded that Russia agree to a ceasefire first as a precondition for talks. After US President Donald Trump urged Kiev to “immediately” agree to the proposal for direct unconditional talks, Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky said he would be waiting for Putin in Türkiye on Thursday “personally.”

Nevertheless, he maintained that Kiev awaits “a full and lasting ceasefire, starting from tomorrow [Monday], to provide the necessary basis for diplomacy.” Asked about the progress in the Ukraine peace process, Peskov told reporters on Monday that Moscow remains committed to “resuming direct talks in Istanbul without any preconditions.” Moscow’s approach is aimed at “finding a genuine diplomatic resolution to the Ukrainian crisis, addressing the root causes of the conflict, and achieving a lasting peace,” Peskov said. He added that Putin’s proposal had received support from “leaders of many countries,” including those in several former Soviet republics and BRICS members.

The spokesman also noted that Trump had “called on the Ukrainian side to urgently, and without any conditions, take part in the meeting we proposed,” while pointing to Türkiye’s readiness to facilitate the talks. “In general, we are focused on a serious effort to find a path toward a long-term peaceful resolution.” Moscow has said it is open to a ceasefire “in general,” but has flagged several crucial concerns. Russian officials argue that any pause in fighting would allow Ukraine to regroup its battered forces and continue its mobilization campaign. Moscow has also demanded that all Western arms deliveries to Ukraine be halted during any ceasefire period.

Read more …

“He should recall his first profession less often and stop the clownery..”

‘Stop The Clownery’ – Top Russian MP To Zelensky (RT)

A senior Russian MP has blasted Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky for continuing to block peace negotiations with Moscow, saying Kiev should “stop the clownery” and return to diplomacy. In an interview with RT on Monday, State Duma Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Leonid Slutsky noted that Zelensky “banned negotiations for himself.” He was referring to the Ukrainian leader’s 2022 order banning direct negotiations with Russia as long as President Vladimir Putin remains in office. “He should recall his first profession less often and stop the clownery,” Slutsky said, in an apparent jab at Zelensky’s past as a comedian. On Sunday, the Russian president proposed resuming direct negotiations with Ukraine without any preconditions on May 15 in Istanbul. The peace settlement process must start with talks, which could ultimately yield “some kind of new truce and a new ceasefire,” according to Putin.

Slutsky urged the Ukrainian leadership be “rational,” calling negotiations the “only sensible step.” “We are ready to choose our delegation and fly to Istanbul even this minute,” he said. “Of course, the talks won’t be easy, but I hope we can truly bring the military phase of this conflict to an end. It is in everyone’s interest.” The lawmaker claimed that worldwide support for Russia’s offer is growing as the global majority has formed around Putin’s ideas of a multipolar world. “We must face reality and start negotiations. I urge everyone to morally support this position,” Slutsky said. He added that the number of countries supporting the conflict is “approaching zero,” and that “the path toward peace has been laid out by the Russian president, endorsed by US President [Donald Trump] and all reasonable people.”

Read more …

“..Zelensky would be better off ignoring the “train wreck crew that retreated from Kiev in that now famous train journey at the weekend..”

“..to Russia, the fundamental question in any potential peace talks would be whether an “enduring agreement… can be reached” with the current “illegitimate” Ukrainian leader..”

Zelensky Should ‘Grasp’ Opportunity Offered By Putin – George Galloway (RT)

Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky should seize the opportunity to restart direct negotiations offered by Russian President Vladimir Putin, as Kiev has “a losing hand” in all areas, the leader of the Workers Party of Britain, George Galloway, has said. In a televised address early on Sunday, Putin offered Kiev the chance to “resume the negotiations they interrupted in 2022… without any preconditions,” suggesting that talks could be held on Thursday in Istanbul. Speaking to RT on Monday, Galloway said “it’s a pity that his European friends haven’t told President Zelensky, as [US President] Donald Trump has told him, that this is an opportunity that simply must be grasped.” According to the former British MP, “the alternatives are really quite ghastly… for everyone concerned.”

Galloway added that Zelensky would be better off ignoring the “train wreck crew that retreated from Kiev in that now famous train journey at the weekend,” referring to the visit to the Ukrainian capital by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. “He should not listen to the likes of Starmer and Macron” as “they don’t represent anything practical,” Galloway insisted. He argued that none of the European NATO member states making up the so-called “coalition of the willing” have the military and economic might to be of any significance. Galloway added that to Russia, the fundamental question in any potential peace talks would be whether an “enduring agreement… can be reached” with the current “illegitimate” Ukrainian leader. Zelensky’s presidential term expired last May, although he has refused to hold elections, citing martial law.

Read more …

“..now, with the tremendous Drug and Pharmaceutical Cuts, plus massive incoming Tariff Money, our ‘GREAT, BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL’ just got much BIGGER and BETTER..”

Trump Rallies GOP To Back ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ (ZH)

President Donald Trump on Monday called on congressional Republicans to unify behind what he hailed as his “ONE, BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL,” a sweeping legislative package that merges tax cuts, immigration reforms, and a raft of domestic priorities into a single reconciliation measure. “This week the Republicans are meeting in the Tax, Energy, and Agriculture Committees on major pieces of ‘THE ONE, BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL,'” Mr. Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform, urging lawmakers to stand behind House committee chairs Jason Smith of Ways and Means, Brett Guthrie of Energy and Commerce, and Glenn “GT” Thompson of Agriculture. “We must WIN! But now, with the tremendous Drug and Pharmaceutical Cuts, plus massive incoming Tariff Money, our ‘GREAT, BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL’ just got much BIGGER and BETTER. The Golden Age of America will soon be upon us.”

The comments, made just before Mr. Trump’s planned trip to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, came as his administration unveiled an executive action to lower pharmaceutical drug prices by up to 90% under a new “Most Favored Nations” pricing policy. He also lashed out at Democrats, accusing them of trying to “DESTROY our Country” by offering amendments to the bill prior to his press conference. “When I return from the Middle East, where great things will happen for America, we will work together on any and all outstanding issues,” Mr. Trump added. “But there shouldn’t be many — The Bill is GREAT.”

Despite the urgency in his messaging, progress on Capitol Hill has been slow. Lawmakers have sent just five bills to Mr. Trump’s desk this Congress. Still, Speaker Mike Johnson is aiming to change that, setting a Memorial Day deadline to pass the reconciliation package through the House. GOP leadership hopes to finalize the bill by July 4 — a timeline that coincides with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s request for a debt-limit increase included in the package. On Monday, the house GOP released a draft of the bill (full text below)- which confirms several core policy pillars previously signaled by leadership. Among the most consequential is a 5% remittance tax on international money transfers, designed to fund border security, which includes a new refundable credit for verified U.S. senders and strict compliance rules.

In a significant rollback of Biden-era environmental policy, the bill would terminate or phase out numerous clean energy tax credits, including for residential solar, new energy-efficient homes, and hydrogen production, with sharp limits on components sourced from “prohibited foreign entities”—primarily targeting Chinese supply chains. The legislation also introduces a new federal income tax deduction for qualified tips and overtime compensation through 2028, aimed at working-class earners. However, these benefits explicitly exclude high earners, service-sector owners, and nontraditional tipping industries, and require both the employee and spouse to have Social Security numbers to qualify—adding a compliance hurdle that could reignite partisan fights over ID requirements.

Beyond those provisions, the bill extends provisions from the 2017 Trump tax law, including the higher estate and gift tax exemptions and the limitation on the deduction of state and local taxes (SALT), with a modified $30,000 cap for individuals that phases down for high earners. This could fuel renewed conflict with blue-state Republicans still pushing for full repeal. The bill further includes a new cap on the tax benefit of itemized deductions, revives limitations on casualty loss and moving expense deductions, and eliminates miscellaneous itemized deductions altogether—provisions likely to draw sharp resistance from Democrats, particularly those representing high-cost-of-living states.

Read more …

In a brief check of CNN yesterday, I learned that Trump had lost his trade venture in a terrible way. Because he came down from 145%. Well, I think he won. 2 weeks ago, the Chinese refused to talk. Now, they’re in a binding agreement to negotiate.

US, China Reach Agreement To Lower Tariffs In 90-Day Cool-Off Period (ZH)

During a Monday morning press conference, President Trump told reporters that trade negotiations have led to a “total reset” in U.S.-China relations. He added that he may speak with President Xi Jinping later this week. More headlines from Trump’s press conference (courtesy of Bloomberg):
TRUMP: Total Reset With China
TRUMP: No Decoupling With China
TRUMP: Doesn’t Include Cars, Steel, Aluminum
TRUMP: Will Speak to Xi Maybe at End of Week
TRUMP: China Deal ‘Not the Easiest Thing to Paper’

* * *
China and the U.S. moved to ease trade tensions early Monday, agreeing to a temporary 90-day reduction in reciprocal tariffs on each other’s goods, according to a joint statement released by both governments on X. The accord, viewed as a breakthrough in a multi-month trade war between the world’s two largest economies, helped spark a rally in global markets: S&P 500 futures rose 3%, while Nasdaq futures gained 4%. European markets also advanced, and the U.S. dollar strengthened. U.S. government bonds sold as investors rotated back into equities and other risk-sensitive assets. The joint statement said that the U.S. will reduce levies on most Chinese imports from 145% to 30% by Wednesday. Here’s a summary of the U.S. actions:

The United States will remove the additional tariffs it imposed on China on April 8 and April 9, 2025, but will retain all duties imposed on China prior to April 2, 2025, including Section 301 tariffs, Section 232 tariffs, tariffs imposed in response to the fentanyl national emergency invoked pursuant to the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, and Most Favored Nation tariffs.
• The United States will suspend its 34% reciprocal tariff imposed on April 2, 2025 for 90 days, but retain a 10% tariff during the period of the pause.
• The 10% tariff continues to set a fair baseline that encourages domestic production, strengthens our supply chains and ensures that American trade policy supports American workers first, instead of undercutting them.
• By imposing reciprocal tariffs, President Trump is ensuring our trade policy works for the American economy, addresses our national emergency brought on by our growing and persistent trade deficit, and levels the playing field for American workers and producers.
• Unlike previous administrations, President Trump took a tough, uncompromising stance on China to protect American interests and stop unfair trade practices.

The breakthrough in the talks also led to China reducing its 125% tariff on U.S. goods to 10%. Here’s a summary of the Chinese actions: China will remove the retaliatory tariffs it announced since April 4, 2025, and will also suspend or remove the non-tariff countermeasures taken against the United States since April 2, 2025.
• China will also suspend its initial 34% tariff on the United States it announced on April 4, 2025 for 90 days, but will retain a 10% tariff during the period of the pause. The joint statement indicated that Monday’s agreement would pave the way for further negotiations between senior officials. On the U.S. side, talks are being led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, while Vice Premier He Lifeng will represent China…

After taking the aforementioned actions, the Parties will establish a mechanism to continue discussions about economic and trade relations. The representative from the Chinese side for these discussions will be He Lifeng, Vice Premier of the State Council, and the representatives from the U.S. side will be Scott Bessent, Secretary of the Treasury, and Jamieson Greer, United States Trade Representative. These discussions may be conducted alternately in China and the United States, or a third country upon agreement of the Parties. As required, the two sides may conduct working-level consultations on relevant economic and trade issues.

The White House wrote on X that these trade talks will address America’s trade imbalances: The U.S. goods trade deficit with China was $295.4 billion in 2024—the largest with any trading partner. Today’s agreement works toward addressing these imbalances to deliver real, lasting benefits to American workers, famers, and businesses. The talks also addressed the ongoing fentanyl crisis. The United States and China will take aggressive actions to stem the flow of fentanyl and other precursors from China to illicit drug producers in North America.

Shortly after the joint statement was released, Bessent, who led the American delegation at the talks, told reporters in Geneva that both sides have “substantially moved down the tariff levels” and “neither side wants a decoupling.” “We had a very robust and productive discussion on steps forward on fentanyl,” Bessent added, pointing out that those talks might lead to “purchasing agreements” by China. Commenting on markets, Benedicte Lowe, an equity and derivatives strategist at BNP Paribas Markets 360, told Bloomberg TV that “deescalation was much better than expected by the market” and “for the next couple of days I would expect a bullish environment in the global equity market.”

Read more …

“Everything that is weak in China comes from previous years of government policies aimed at boosting economic growth by building stuff and hoping it would sell at some point..”

China’s Keynesian Model Is Crumbling. It Needs a Trade Deal, Fast. (Lacalle)

In the past decade, the Chinese economy has expanded its central-planned neo-Keynesian model that simply cannot survive without a trade deal. The Chinese manufacturing sector has followed a running-to-stand-still strategy that simply cannot subsist without the enormous trade surplus with the United States. The Chinese manufacturing sector overcapacity is not an anecdote. It is the norm. China produces 30% of the world’s manufacturing goods but consumes less than 18%, according to CKGSB. Additionally, China’s industrial capacity utilization rate fell to 74.1% in the first quarter of 2025. China’s Keynesian central planning model aims to maximise employment and maintain strong economic growth, despite financial constraints and excessive indebtedness. Thus, it needs to sell its excess production to avoid a massive problem of working capital.

Even the government has recognised the problem in a roundabout way, noting that “involution”-style competition (wasteful competition) is a major focus for the 2025 economic policy, and steps are being taken to reduce unnecessary investments and control growth in some industries. However, overcapacity in China is not a fatality; it was created by political design, with local and national authorities trying to boost GDP at any cost. The model is aimed at keeping full employment and economic growth even with economic returns below the cost of capital, and it almost works if the excess capacity can be sold globally, receiving reserve currency and maintaining low costs by passing the working capital cost to global consumers and maintaining low production expenditure with currency controls and exchange rate fixing.

However, the combination of rising debt, a constantly weakening currency, and the escalating bankruptcy and working capital issues could potentially bring this model to a collapse, even in the absence of an official recession. China has learnt that it cannot endure a trade war and cannot substitute the US consumer, the richest and largest market, with European or Latin American consumers. Therefore, it needs a trade deal quickly before the domino of bankruptcies that has plagued the Chinese economy since 2021 erupts into a full-blown financial crisis. China is officially in deflation for the third consecutive month in April. Business insolvencies are projected to increase by 7% in 2025 and by 10% in 2026, according to Allianz, even as the government implements additional fiscal stimulus.

Small and medium-sized enterprises, particularly exporters, are facing mounting bankruptcies due to declining cash flow and the elimination of US tariff exemptions. Job losses are rising in export-dependent regions, and the urban unemployment rate is expected to average 5.7% in 2025, above the official target, according to CNBC. The official NBS Manufacturing PMI fell sharply to 49.0 in April 2025, the steepest decline since December 2023, reflecting a drop in output, new orders, and employment, with foreign orders shrinking to their lowest in at least eleven months. The collapse of the real estate sector, which once accounted for up to 30% of GDP, has weakened banks, reduced household wealth, and led to a negative wealth effect, further depressing consumption and credit demand.

China’s economic strengths are well known, but the weaknesses are too important to ignore. The situation serves as a reminder that central planning never works. Everything that is weak in China comes from previous years of government policies aimed at boosting economic growth by building stuff and hoping it would sell at some point. Furthermore, rising bankruptcies, an imploding property market, and mounting local government debt strain the financial system just as non-performing loans from the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) soar. Several BRI countries have defaulted on their debts or required IMF bailouts, including Sri Lanka, Zambia, Ghana, and Pakistan, while the BRI generated $385 billion in off-the-books debt.

Read more …

X-thread. Who won? The comments say China.

Major Breakthroughs in US-China Trade Negotiations (Mehta)

The US-China trade standoff just ended with a historic 90-day agreement.

Chinese officials made THREE major concessions the media isn’t reporting. After weeks of escalating tariffs that reached a staggering 125% on both sides, US and Chinese negotiators met in Geneva this weekend. The result? A breakthrough 90-day agreement. But there’s more to this story than what’s being reported. Let’s rewind to understand why this matters. On April 2nd, Trump imposed “reciprocal tariffs” under his America First policy. China was assigned a 34% rate. Unlike other countries, China chose to fight back. That’s when things escalated dramatically.

China didn’t just add tariffs. They imposed severe non-tariff measures that effectively created a trade embargo, according to US officials. The economic equivalent of a declaration of war. Both sides kept raising tariffs until they hit a crippling 125%, creating an unsustainable situation that threatened global trade. That’s when something unexpected happened.

Concession #1: China agreed to reduce tariffs by 115%, bringing them down to just 10%. This matches the exact reduction the US offered, creating parity for the first time in this trade battle. But that’s just the beginning.

Concession #2: China removed ALL counter-measures. Beyond tariffs, China had imposed severe non-tariff barriers. Officials said these effectively created a trade embargo against US goods. They’ve now agreed to remove ALL of these barriers.

Concession #3 is perhaps the most surprising. China sent their deputy minister for public safety to address the fentanyl crisis. US officials called this an “upside surprise” – completely unexpected at a trade meeting. This isn’t just about lower prices on Chinese goods. It’s about a fundamental shift in the US-China relationship. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent revealed they’re managing a trade queue with 75+ countries bringing “their best offers” after seeing China’s concessions. The bigger story? This isn’t a one-off deal. US officials established a “mechanism” for ongoing negotiations – something they claim was “neglected” before. Communication channels had “atrophied” until now. What happens in the next 90 days is critical.

Negotiations will focus on rebalancing trade and addressing the $1.2 trillion deficit in goods. That deficit grew 42% in recent years. Now it’s being tackled head-on. Behind the scenes, a strategic vision is unfolding. The US aims to rebuild key manufacturing in medicine, semiconductors, and steel. Yet both sides agreed: “neither side wants a decoupling.” They want rebalancing, not separation. Both countries need a reset. One official explained: “China is unbalanced in terms of overproduction in manufacturing.” The US lost precision manufacturing.Together, they could find a new equilibrium.

America’s goals are clear:
• Restore critical manufacturing
• Maintain healthy trade flows
• Command respect in negotiations
• Create a model for future deals

This agreement sets the blueprint. The ultimate test will come during these 90 days. Will China follow through? Will concrete purchase agreements materialize to reduce the trade deficit? Let me know what you think in the comments. The rules of global trade are being rewritten, and this is just the beginning.

Read more …

“Tomorrow Europe might no longer be European, and even black”. Gaddafi saw it coming from miles away. And Hillary cackled.

Gaddafi Warned Them. Now The EU Is Living Out His Grim Prophecy (RT)

The migration crisis on Europe’s southern borders has been brewing for decades. Today, it has reached a breaking point. In a bid to halt the flow of refugees, the EU is increasingly shifting responsibility to third countries – primarily African states that often face instability themselves. Libya is the most striking example of what these policies have led to. Today, around 4 million African migrants live there without legal status – more than half of the country’s official population of 7.5 million. Left in chaos after Western intervention, Libya has become a springboard for millions seeking to reach the shores of Europe. And it’s not just Libya – in recent years, the European Union has been forging a web of agreements with African and Middle Eastern countries, aiming to keep migrants farther from its borders through a combination of financial incentives and political pressure.

The critical situation in Libya is a direct consequence of Europe’s longstanding attempts to contain migration. According to the European Commission, as of 2023, the EU’s total population was 448.8 million, with 27.3 million non-EU citizens and 42.4 million people born outside the bloc. Despite a recent decline in illegal border crossings, the problem remains acute. Frontex, the European Border and Coast Guard Agency, reported that in January–February 2025, the number of illegal crossings dropped by 25%, to around 25,000. The main routes now run through West Africa and the Central Mediterranean, with migrants predominantly hailing from Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Mali, and other countries. The threat of uncontrolled migration has loomed over Europe for years. It’s worth recalling the warnings of the late Libyan leader, Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, who cautioned during a meeting with Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi in 2010:

“Tomorrow Europe might no longer be European, and even black, as there are millions who want to come in.” In 2011, just months before his death, Gaddafi told Tony Blair that his removal would plunge Libya into chaos, empower terrorist groups, and trigger new waves of migration to Europe. These predictions came true: after the civil war and NATO’s intervention, Libya fell into anarchy and became one of the main transit hubs for refugees. According to Libya’s Ministry of Internal Affairs, over 4 million foreigners are currently in Libya, most of them undocumented. Many are held in detention centers, which, amid lawlessness, rampant drug trafficking and armed clashes, have become little more than prisons. International organizations have documented slave markets and abductions of migrants for forced labor or ransom.

Those who fail to reach Europe face two options: deportation or death in the Mediterranean. UNICEF reports that more than 2,200 people died or went missing in the Mediterranean in 2024, including about 1,700 along the central route. Children and teenagers accounted for roughly one-fifth of all casualties. At a March 17 meeting at the Ministry of Interior of the Government of National Unity (GNU) in Tripoli, Minister Emad Al-Trabelsi stated that Libya could not cope alone, given its internal security and economic problems. In the presence of EU diplomats, African Union officials and representatives from the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), he called on Western countries to help strengthen Libya’s southern borders, supply modern equipment for controlling migration, and provide broader support to the country.

Italy, one of the first destinations for many migrants, is actively seeking to change the situation. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni proposed the Mattei Plan – a multibillion-euro initiative to invest in energy, agriculture, water supply, healthcare and education in African countries. Named after Eni founder Enrico Mattei, the plan is based on a simple idea: fostering economic development in Africa to reduce incentives for migration. At the same time, Italy is not shying away from another tool – “offshoring” migrants, meaning relocating them to third countries. Australia pioneered this model, sending asylum seekers to the island of Nauru since 2012. European countries are now adopting similar methods. In Europe, Albania may become a processing hub for migrants, thanks in part to Italian efforts. Under Meloni’s ambitious plan, two migrant screening centers are to be opened in Albania, a non-EU member state, but operated under Rome’s authority. The goal is to keep asylum seekers out of both Italy and the EU.

Read more …

Brussels is full of such tragedies. Because no democracy.

“Euro-Nazism is being reborn before our eyes,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in response to Kallas’ threats..”

Kallas A ‘Tragedy’ For EU – MEP (RT)

Senior EU officials, such as foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, represent a “tragedy” for the bloc, Slovak MEP Lubos Blaha has told RT. Blaha also accused top officials in Brussels of supporting fascism. The MEP’s remarks come after Brussels criticized Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico’s attendance at Russia’s May 9 Victory Day celebrations in Moscow last week. Kallas warned EU officials and candidate countries against taking part in the event, urging them to travel to Kiev instead. Other EU officials warned that candidate states such as Serbia would have their status renewed if their leaders attended the celebrations in Russia. According to Blaha, the criticism directed at Fico and other leaders, such as Serbia’s Aleksandar Vucic, wasn’t genuinely about the conflict in Ukraine. “The real truth is different. The real truth is that their anti-fascism is pretended,” he said.

Blaha used the example of this year’s ceremony in the European Parliament commemorating the defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II, describing it as somber. “It was like a funeral. Everyone was so sad, and in the end, Beethoven was playing,” Blaha said, noting that the same music was used by Germany broadcasts after the Battle of Stalingrad. “This is the same tradition.” “If the European Union is governed by people like Kaja Kallas, then it’s a tragedy,” he added. Kallas, who previously served as the prime minister of Estonia, has repeatedly spoken out harshly against Russia and has labeled Moscow as the EU’s primary adversary, while advocating for increased militarization of the European bloc. Her warnings to EU member states and candidate countries about attending the Moscow Victory Day celebrations were met with condemnation from Russian officials, who labeled her threats as “blackmail.”

“Euro-Nazism is being reborn before our eyes,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in response to Kallas’ threats. “This is how the fascists 80 years ago forced those they considered ‘second-class people’ to renounce their homeland, ethnicity, and faith,” she wrote on Telegram. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has also criticized Kallas as a “rabid Russophobe,” and recently claimed that “manifestations of neo-Nazism in Europe” are “significant,” and called for extensive efforts to combat the trend. Echoing these sentiments, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev recently claimed that neo-Nazism is on the rise in Europe. He called for a comprehensive “de-Nazification” effort not just in Ukraine, but across the entire continent.

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“..Lavrov has stated that the EU is “becoming militarized at a record pace,” adding that there is now “very little difference” between the EU and NATO.”

Ukraine’s EU Entry Would Drag Bloc Into War – Orban (RT)

Admitting Ukraine into the EU would only prolong the hostilities between Moscow and Kiev and risk dragging the bloc into the conflict, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has warned. Ukraine, which has made EU membership a national priority, formally applied to join the bloc in February 2022, days after the escalation of the conflict with Russia. Hungary has repeatedly pushed back against the EU’s goal of admitting Ukraine by 2030 – a target recently reiterated by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. On Monday, Orban reiterated Budapest’s opposition to accession, calling it a decision that could shape the bloc’s future for the worse. “As a country neighboring Ukraine, we believe that if Ukraine is admitted to the European Union, it will mean war,” Orban told the conference of EU parliamentary speakers in Budapest. The EU has never accepted a country at war – and for “good reason,” he added.

The Hungarian leader also expressed regret over the commitment of some EU leaders to continued military aid for Kiev. “We have a different view. We think the longer the war lasts, the more lives will be lost and the worse the situation will become on the battlefield,” Orban said. Ukraine still faces major hurdles on its path to joining the bloc, with full membership requiring unanimous EU approval and sweeping reforms, including anti-corruption efforts, improved governance, and legal alignment with EU standards. Orban has long opposed Ukraine’s integration into Western institutions, including NATO, arguing that its accession could escalate tensions with Russia. He suggested that the country should instead remain a “buffer” between Russia and the West.

While Russia has consistently rejected the idea of Ukraine joining NATO, its position on EU accession has been more restrained. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said Ukraine has the “sovereign right” to join the bloc, provided that it remains a matter of economic integration and not military alignment. However, Russian officials have warned that the line between civilian and military in the EU is becoming blurred. Peskov has accused the bloc of actively working to prolong the Ukraine conflict by repeatedly expressing its intention to support Kiev in its desire to “continue the war.” He has also criticized Brussels for undermining peace efforts by portraying Russia as the bloc’s primary adversary. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has stated that the EU is “becoming militarized at a record pace,” adding that there is now “very little difference” between the EU and NATO.

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Better make that a very sharp turn.

Multiculturalism Fail: Britain Makes a U-Turn on Immigration (Margolis)

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is now openly calling for a significant reduction in immigration, which marks a complete reversal from Labour’s previous open-borders agenda. In his latest remarks, Starmer didn’t just echo familiar concerns about wages or public services. He framed the immigration issue as a threat to national cohesion and, in doing so, acknowledged what many British citizens have been warning about for years. “Nations depend on rules, fair rules,” Starmer said. “Sometimes they’re written down; often they’re not. But either way, they give shape to our values, guide us towards our rights, of course, but also our responsibilities, the obligations we owe to each other.” This newfound focus on national responsibility is a remarkable about-face for a party that spent years dismissing immigration concerns as xenophobic.

But the Prime Minister went further, saying that without clear rules, the UK risks becoming “an island of strangers, not a nation that walks forward together.” Starmer, once a staunch advocate for multiculturalism, now concedes that the immigration system has been exploited at the expense of national identity. “When you have an immigration system that seems almost designed to permit abuse, that encourages some businesses to bring in lower paid workers rather than invest in our young people,” he said, “or simply one that is sold by politicians to the British people on an entirely false premise, then you’re not championing growth, you’re not championing justice.” “You’re actually contributing to the forces that are slowly pulling our country apart,” Starmer admitted.

But it’s more than just exploitation of cheap labor. The broader concern — unspoken in Starmer’s remarks but unmistakably present — is that an influx of Islamic migrants, many of whom openly reject Western values, has plagued the UK. It’s caused a slew of problems that politicians and the media have typically downplayed. In many cities, integration has failed, creating cultural clashes and deepening social divisions. Urban neighborhoods with large immigrant populations are experiencing increased tension, with growing concerns over crime, strained public services, and economic burdens. In short, the consequences of unchecked migration have been devastating, not just to public safety but also to social cohesion.

“That’s why I told the Labour Party conference taking back control is a Labour argument,” Starmer continued. “And why, most importantly of all, inward migration is already falling with this government.” It’s the clearest indication yet that Labour knows — even if it won’t publicly admit — it can no longer ignore reality. The cultural fractures, the rise in antisemitism, the radicalization concerns, and the strain on law enforcement have all added up. The question now is whether voters will buy Labour’s rebrand or see it as too little, too late. Either way, the Prime Minister’s speech confirms what critics have said all along: mass migration, particularly from hostile Islamic cultures, was never about diversity. It was about dismantling the nation. And now, even Starmer is admitting the damage.

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Much closer to what the countries and people have in common: the respectful preservation of what makes them different from each other. Much better than EU.

Le Pen Pines For Unified Nationalist Front In European Parliament (RMX)

Marine Le Pen used a visit to Rome on Saturday to denounce what she called a growing “democratic scandal” within the European Union, following her recent conviction that has barred her from running in France’s next presidential election. Speaking alongside Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini, the French nationalist leader warned that her case was part of a wider pattern of political suppression aimed at silencing sovereignist movements across Europe. “I have an African friend who told me that there are countries where there are no elections, and countries where candidates are prevented from running,” Le Pen said in an interview with Corriere Della Sera during the visit. “I believe that my conviction is really a democratic scandal: I was prevented from running for election, despite having appealed and am therefore still presumed innocent.”

Le Pen drew a direct comparison between her own legal troubles and what she described as systematic efforts by the European establishment to neutralize opposition voices. “I can’t help but think of what happened to Salvini, what happened in Romania with Calin Georgescu, and what the European Union wants to do with Orbán,” she said. “The EU does not like defeats, but it is ready to go against the people to crush those who bother it.” Her remarks came during a joint appearance with Salvini at the League’s School of Political Formation following a religious observance in honor of Pope Leo XIV. The two leaders, longtime allies in the European nationalist movement, presented a united front against what they view as Brussels’ overreach and ideological rigidity. “His political ideas are practically the same as mine,” Le Pen said of Salvini. “And I want to add that he is a brave, faithful man with great willpower. He really is a friend.”

Le Pen also used her Rome trip to criticize ongoing EU defense integration efforts, particularly the Readiness 2030 initiative, which she claimed is another vehicle for centralizing power in Brussels. “Whenever there is a crisis, the EU takes advantage to push integrated policies that override national sovereignty,” she said. “Today, it does so with Ukraine and tries to build a European army. It does so in an absolutely cynical way, to impose its ideological agenda on the European people.”With French President Emmanuel Macron and other EU leaders visiting Kyiv for meetings with his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, and the so-called “Coalition of the Willing,” Le Pen questioned the coalition’s true aim. “Does it want to reach an agreement for peace, or will it end up fomenting war?” she asked.

“Macron has put himself in the shoes of the warrior. France should do the opposite: devote all its efforts to acting as a mediator in the direction of peace.” Though Patriots for Europe, the nationalist parliamentary group Le Pen co-founded, is now the third-largest bloc in the European Parliament, she acknowledged that uniting with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) could elevate their influence further. “I do not lose hope that the sovereigntists can evolve into a single formation,” she said. “After all, we already vote together on many amendments. Certainly, there is more that unites us than separates us.”

On Meloni herself, Le Pen insisted she has “an important diplomatic role, and that’s no surprise. We have differences — especially her support for the election of Ursula von der Leyen — but she’s achieved results, both externally and for Italy’s economy.” Despite tensions between the French and Italian governments, Le Pen advocated for a revival of the bilateral relationship. “France and Italy are the two most similar countries in Europe,” she said. “I support a true Renaissance in relations between them.” In contrast, she dismissed the longstanding Franco-German axis. “That axis is a choice of the current French government,” she said. “Germany has always pursued its own policies. I believe Europe needs rules that apply equally to all.”

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“most favored nation” (MFN)

“..I will be signing one of the most consequential Executive Orders in our Country’s history..”

Trump Announces EO to Lower Prescription Drug Prices through MFN Policy (CTH)

CTH suspected we were going to see this…. and it might just work. President Trump has announced via Truth Social that he will sign an executive order to structurally create a “most favored nation” (MFN) policy toward USA drug manufacturing prices. Americans must receive a matching price to the lowest cost sold. President Trump – “For many years the World has wondered why Prescription Drugs and Pharmaceuticals in the United States of America were SO MUCH HIGHER IN PRICE THAN THEY WERE IN ANY OTHER NATION, SOMETIMES BEING FIVE TO TEN TIMES MORE EXPENSIVE THAN THE SAME DRUG, MANUFACTURED IN THE EXACT SAME LABORATORY OR PLANT, BY THE SAME COMPANY??? It was always difficult to explain and very embarrassing because, in fact, there was no correct or rightful answer.

The Pharmaceutical/Drug Companies would say, for years, that it was Research and Development Costs, and that all of these costs were, and would be, for no reason whatsoever, borne by the “suckers” of America, ALONE. Campaign Contributions can do wonders, but not with me, and not with the Republican Party. We are going to do the right thing, something that the Democrats have fought for many years. Therefore, I am pleased to announce that Tomorrow morning, in the White House, at 9:00 A.M., I will be signing one of the most consequential Executive Orders in our Country’s history. Prescription Drug and Pharmaceutical prices will be REDUCED, almost immediately, by 30% to 80%. They will rise throughout the World in order to equalize and, for the first time in many years, bring FAIRNESS TO AMERICA!

I will be instituting a MOST FAVORED NATION’S POLICY whereby the United States will pay the same price as the Nation that pays the lowest price anywhere in the World. Our Country will finally be treated fairly, and our citizens Healthcare Costs will be reduced by numbers never even thought of before. Additionally, on top of everything else, the United States will save TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS. Thank you for your attention to this matter. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!” [source]

***
[..] President Trump is on the cusp of announcing a big change in tariffs against foreign pharmaceutical companies in an effort to get the manufacturing of medicines brought back to the USA. Details are soon to surface. In a proactive move, the European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations (EFPIA), went to the European Commission (EC) in April to hold talks with Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, calling for radical change and holding the threat of an exodus to the U.S. over the EC president’s head.

PRESS RELEASE – “Today, CEOs of the research-based pharmaceutical industry issued a stark warning to President von der Leyen that unless Europe delivers rapid, radical policy change then pharmaceutical research, development and manufacturing is increasingly likely to be directed towards the US.

A survey of EFPIA member companies conducted last week – to which 18 international large and medium-sized innovative companies responded – identified as much as 85% of capital expenditure investments (approximately €50.6 billion) and as much as 50% of R&D expenditure (approximately €52.6 billion) potentially at risk. This is out of a current combined total of €164.8 billion in investments planned for the period 2025-2029 in the EU-27 territory. Over the next three months, companies that responded estimate that a total of €16.5 billion i.e. 10% of the total investment plans is at risk.The US now leads Europe on every investor metric from availability of capital, intellectual property, speed of approval to rewards for innovation. In addition to the uncertainty created by the threat of tariffs, there is little incentive to invest in the EU and significant drivers to relocate to the US. (read more)”

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“Gasoline, Energy, Groceries, and all other costs, DOWN. NO INFLATION!!! LOVE, DJT.”

How Trump’s Drug Price Executive Order Will Affect Medicare (DS)

President Donald Trump will take action on Medicare if pharmaceutical companies don’t lower prices across markets in response to his Monday executive order to slash prescription drug costs. Trump signed an executive order Monday morning instituting a “most favored nation” policy under which Americans will pay “the same price as the Nation that pays the lowest price anywhere in the World.” “DRUG PRICES TO BE CUT BY 59%, PLUS!” Trump wrote on Truth Social Monday morning. “Gasoline, Energy, Groceries, and all other costs, DOWN. NO INFLATION!!! LOVE, DJT.” Trump signed a similar executive order in 2020 that called for linking drug prices under both Parts B and D to those paid by selected foreign governments.

Medicare Part B covers doctor-administered medications. Medicare Part D covers prescription medicines that senior beneficiaries typically pick up at neighborhood pharmacies. The government provides income-related subsidies to seniors, who shop for the private drug coverage that best meets their own needs. That 2020 order resulted in a rule that was limited to Medicare Part B, but the executive order signed this morning is broader, according to a White House Official. The Daily Signal asked the White House on a background call for reporters how the order would affect Medicare Part D. Medicare is where the United States government spends the most money directly on pharmaceuticals, a White House official said.

“We will be taking action in the Medicare program if the pharmaceutical companies do not come to the table and lower their prices across markets,” the White House official told The Daily Signal. “That’s obviously one of our biggest programs, and where Medicare Part B has been successful in incentivizing generic utilization, where, in many places, for 90% of prescriptions, we get very low prices.” While 90% of prescriptions are generic, meaning developed to be the same as a medicine that has already been authorized, the expenditure on the remaining 10% of prescriptions is “enormous” and one of the main places the U.S. is getting “ripped off,” according to the White House official. The official said future action on the Medicare program will be a key focus of the Trump administration.

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Trump has some kind of fall-out with Bibi. But that doesn’t mean he turns his back on AIPAC or the entire Israel lobby. Let’s wait and see. He’s in the Gulf this week. The deals made there will give some things away. $1 triilion for the US while Bibi finishes off Gaza? Don’t think so.

Growing Strain in the Trump-Netanyahu Relationship Worsens (Devlin)

American negotiators sidelined Israel in securing the release of the last living American hostage held by Hamas in Gaza in yet another sign of tension between President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Over the weekend, President Donald Trump’s administration brokered a deal for the emancipation of Edan Alexander, a 21-year-old dual American-Israeli national, with the help of Qatari and Egyptian mediators. Israel, meanwhile, was sidelined and learned of the deal only Sunday night. Unlike previous hostage exchanges, Alexander’s release did not accompany or come under the framework of a broader ceasefire agreement. Rather, Netanyahu is gearing up to expand Israel’s operations in Gaza after receiving approval from Israel’s security cabinet last week. Trump took to Truth Social on Sunday evening to announce the deal that ultimately secured Alexander’s release.

“I am happy to announce that Edan Alexander, an American citizen who has been held hostage since October 2023, is coming home to his family,” the president wrote. “I am grateful to all those involved in making this monumental news happen. This was a step taken in good faith towards the United States and the efforts of the mediators—Qatar and Egypt—to put an end to this very brutal war and return ALL living hostages and remains to their loved ones. Hopefully this is the first of those final steps necessary to end this brutal conflict. I look very much forward to that day of celebration!” Netanyahu, meanwhile, credited Alexander’s release to not only Trump’s diplomacy but also to “the military pressure of [Israeli Defense Forces] soldiers in the Gaza Strip.”

An unnamed Hamas official told NPR that the United States made certain guarantees to secure Alexander’s release. NPR added that, while the Hamas official did not go into detail, the official hinted that the U.S. would help secure the release of some Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli captivity, facilitate the delivery of some aid into Gaza, and negotiate a broader end to the war. Following Alexander’s release, Hamas published a statement saying, “The Al-Qassam Brigades have just released the Israeli soldier holding American citizenship, Edan Alexander, following communications with the U.S. administration. This comes as part of the mediators’ efforts to reach a ceasefire, open the border crossings, and allow the entry of aid and relief for our people in the Gaza Strip.” “The ball is now in the American and Israeli court. We gave the Americans what they asked for. They need to get the other side to give things too,” the Hamas official told NPR.

Netanyahu contradicted the Hamas official, claiming Alexander was released “without anything in return.” An Israeli Defense Forces unit received Alexander from Hamas on Monday and took the 21-year-old to a facility in Re’im for a medical and psychological evaluation. Alexander, a soldier for the Israeli Army, was captured by Hamas at his military post on the morning of Oct. 7, 2023. The New Jersey native moved to Israel after high school to serve in the Israeli military. Trump has changed America’s approach to pursuing a Middle Eastern peace agreement, opting to negotiate directly with Hamas and other belligerents in the Israel-Gaza conflict without Israel present.

Last week, American negotiators brokered a deal with Houthi militants in Yemen. The U.S. will end missile strikes in Yemen as long as the Houthis end strikes on American vessels in the Red Sea. This deal apparently surprised Netanyahu and other Israeli officials, and Netanyahu posted a video statement on X that said, “Israel will defend itself by itself. If others would join us, our American friends, very well. If they don’t, we will defend ourselves.” Trump’s decision to cut Israel out of the negotiations with the Houthis represents a response to Israel’s actions following the breakdown of the ceasefire brokered by Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, just prior to Trump entering office.

That ceasefire, which would have continued to facilitate the return of hostages on both sides, started to falter in March. Israel accused Hamas of returning the wrong hostage remains, and Hamas made grotesque public showings of the hostage returns. Hamas, meanwhile, accused Israel of delaying the release of Palestinian prisoners and blocking aid headed for Gaza. The ceasefire evaporated on March 18 after Israel launched a large-scale aerial attack, which Israel justified by claiming Hamas militants were preparing for another attack. After the U.S. negotiated Alexander’s release, Netanyahu met with Witkoff and U.S. Ambassador Mike Huckabee in Jerusalem to discuss a broader hostage deal and an end to hostilities.

The Israeli government said hostilities will not end during future negotiations: “The Prime Minister made clear that negotiations will take place only under fire.” Trump departs from Washington on Monday for the Middle East, the first major international trip of his second term. The president will visit Riyadh, Doha, and Abu Dhabi—crucial players in ongoing Middle Eastern diplomacy—but not Jerusalem. Is it a snub to Netanyahu, or simply because Netanyahu has already visited Trump at the White House twice already this year? Regardless, the apparent tensions between Trump and Netanyahu are unlikely to be alleviated anytime soon. Hamas still has 20 living and an estimated 40 dead hostages, which the terror group continues to hold as leverage for negotiating the end of the war, but Israel shows no signs of slowing down.

https://twitter.com/AdameMedia/status/1921675932491735245

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“Those who perpetrated the greatest ruse in American presidential history by staging the Biden presidency will never tell us what their ultimate agenda was” — Victor Davis Hanson

MAHA Hugger Mugger (James Howard Kunstler)

[..] sooner or later, Bobby Kennedy, Jr., will have to take some kind of stand on the Covid vaccines, namely stopping the shots altogether. Whatever you think of the childhood vaccine schedule — a red-hot issue these days — it seems quite insane that the Covid mRNA vaccine is still included on it. It is still officially recommended by the CDC. Among the “much more” effects of the shots is damage to human fertility. You must ask: by giving these shots to kids as young as six-months, are we setting up a nation that won’t be able to have children? Pretty spooky.

So, the new nominee for Surgeon General is one Casey Means of the brother / sister team, Calley and Casey Means, known primarily as food safety advocate sidekicks to Bobby Kennedy. The Meanses were already under some suspicion for rising to rapidly into prominence from out of nowhere since the summer of 2024 when Mr. Kennedy began to swing over to the Trump campaign. They were suspected and criticized as the shills for some sort of sinister alliance between Silicon Valley, Big Pharma, and the US intel blob. The Meanses have adroitly avoided taking a position on the Covid vaccines. Hmmmm. . . . That’s the chatter, anyway — whether there’s any truth to it, we will have to stand-by to discover.

You’d have to ask yourself whether Mr. Kennedy would ally himself with people of supposedly sketchy character. Is he being used or played? Or maybe, it’s just not so. The nomination of Casey Means sent out shock-waves through MAGA and MAHA. Her credentials seemed a little sketchy like Janette Nesheiwat’s before her. Ms. Means dropped out of her five-year medical residency in Oregon a few months before completing it, apparently due to disillusionment with conventional medicine. She does not have an active medical license, supposedly required to serve as Surgeon General.

Instead, she transitioned into what is loosely called functional medicine, which rejects the oppressive “standards of practice” dictated by insurance companies and reliance on pharma products to alleviate symptoms rather than treat the causes of disease. Ms. Means also became a medical entrepreneur, starting Levels, a glucose-monitoring tech company, and is an Instagram “wellness influencer” with 750,000 followers. Given the gross racketeering aspects of conventional medicine and its failure to deal with the shocking rise in chronic disease, you might argue that Ms. Means made the right career moves, weird as they might seem superficially.

It’s pretty much a miracle that RFK, Jr., managed to land safely as Secretary of HHS and that he was able to enlist “medical freedom” advocates Jay Bhattacharya to run the National Institutes for Health and Marty Makary to run the Federal Drug Administration. This represents a stupendous turnaround in government policy. It’s also plausible that this new public health team has been preoccupied with personnel and administrative re-org in the first months of Trump 2.0. They’ve begun to nibble around the edges of the national health crisis, such as banning toxic food coloring.

They have yet to face the big, nasty legal questions such as revoking Pharma’s liability shield against lawsuits for its defective products, ending TV advertising of Pharma products — which is just an extortion racket for managing cable news content to protect Pharma — fully confronting the autism calamity and its connection to childhood vaccines, and, of course, pulling the Covid shots.

There is also chatter that RFK, Jr., is “managed” by hidden persons or forces. One not-so-hidden character in that psychodrama is Senator Bill Cassidy (R-LA). Sen. Cassidy, a medical doctor, chairs the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP) Committee that ran Mr. Kennedy over-the-coals in his confirmation hearing. Political pressure caused Sen. Cassidy to cave and vote “yes” for RFK,Jr., then. Louisiana has since changed its election rules so that Democrats can no longer vote in the GOP primary, and Cassidy is vulnerable. His base is restless. He voted to impeach Mr. Trump in January 2021 over the Capitol J-6 riot.

So, the chatter says that Mr. Kennedy made a deal with Sen. Cassidy to avoid taking certain actions — like, anything that might hurt Pharma and its profit-stream — or else Mr. Kennedy would be dragged back in front of the HELP Committee and raked over the coals again. If that were to happen, I suspect Mr. Kennedy would handle himself very capably in any public hearing. He has always been in command of the facts. As head of HHS, he has had access to a deep trove of information that he had no access to previously. He must know by now exactly what sort of mischief has been perpetrated in US public health over the decades and will not be shy about disclosing it publicly. You should also not be surprised if Mr. Kennedy begins issuing criminal referrals before much longer.

As for Casey Means. . . give her a chance to demonstrate that she is on the right side of MAHA and willing to fight in what has become a biomedical war on the American public.

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GOP killed his DC US Attorney nomination, and now he gets a better job.

“As an originator of serious weaponization policy development on the campaign, Ed has landed exactly where he belongs..”

Trump’s Weaponization Czar Ed Martin: ‘It Worked Out Great’ (NYP)

Newly minted weaponization czar Ed Martin is gearing up to take on a myriad of bad actors who the Trump administration says weaponized government powers to punish conservatives and MAGA supporters over recent years. Martin’s list of potential targets is very wide, including propagators of Russiagate, prosecutors in Capitol riot cases, individuals who allegedly helped cover up COVID-19 origins and even international organizations that have censored Americans.“The truth is important, and we need it,” Martin told The Post. “Then, after the truth is known, we need to hold those accountable that did the wrongdoing, and we need to also help those who are victims. We have both of those obligations.”

For years, Martin, formerly the Missouri Republican Party chairman, has helped research government weaponization and crafted strategies to combat it. During the 2024 campaign, he helped craft language in the 2024 GOP platform calling on the party to “stop woke and weaponized government.” He’s also already started going after some key targets. While serving as interim US attorney for the District of Columbia, a position that is set to expire for him on May 20, he sent out investigatory letters to at least four key officials who were heavily involved with the Russia collusion investigation. Additionally, Martin demoted at least half a dozen prosecutors who were involved with pursuing the Capitol riot cases at the US Attorney’s Office for the District of Columbia.

Now that he is set to help the Justice Department’s Weaponization Working Group, he intends to continue those investigations and expand further. He is also looking to probe foreign censorship of Americans and the “appearance of corruption in some of the USAID grants. “There may be no limit to the targets, since there was no limit to the weaponization,” Martin told The Post. To Martin, helping victims of government weaponization restore their reputations and get their lives back on track is a top priority as he heads into his new role as leader of the working group. “We want to stop the wrongdoing if government’s weaponized,” Martin explained. “We want to hold them accountable. But we also want to help people to get back on their feet and to be able to do things.”

The DOJ’s Weaponization Working Group was established in February by Attorney General Pam Bondi in response to an executive order from Trump to root out remnants of weaponization and hold key perpetrators accountable. Bondi called on the group to investigate actions by former special counsel Jack Smith’s team, federal assistance with “weaponization” done by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg and New York Attorney General Letitia James, tactics used against prosecution of Capitol rioters, the infamous FBI Catholic targeting memo, retaliation against whistleblowers and more. Martin was an early member of the group, and now, as its leader, he will report to Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche.

Trump named him to the weaponization czar role last week after his bid to get confirmed by the Senate to become a full-fledged US attorney for DC went up in flames when Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) opposed him due to his positions on the Capitol riot. The president also named him as pardon attorney. “Many pardons are sort of mundane, right?” Martin reflected. “They’re not famous, they’re not Marc Rich and the political ones — they are people that have simply been wronged.” Martin says his team will follow the facts where they go and isn’t prejudging potential penalties he might pursue on certain cases. “Sometimes there’ll be crimes involved, in which case we’ll prosecute. Sometimes there’ll be just the need to make clear this is not how it’s supposed to go,” he said.

Despite the brutal setback he was dealt last week when he became a rare Trump pick to effectively get rejected by the Senate, Martin believes that the way events unfolded worked out for him. “I think it worked out great,” he said. “I’m gratified that’s happened, but I also just am willing to serve the president.” One of Martin’s allies, Michael Caputo — a self-styled “smashmouth” politico and Russiagate victim who has helped advise the new czar on weaponization — suggested the way events unfolded could prove to be a blessing in disguise. “As an originator of serious weaponization policy development on the campaign, Ed has landed exactly where he belongs,” Caputo said.

Martin is also hoping to be somewhat more outward-facing as the leader of the weaponization working group and promised to be very receptive to feedback.“Anybody who’s got a legitimate example or a complaint or whatever, we want to try to process that,” he said.

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“Can all of Biden’s last-minute pardons of criminals and J6 members who destroyed evidence be enforced or are they null and void as President Trump has declared? Klayman says, “They are null and void..”

America is Under Siege – 233 Federal Cases Against Trump – Larry Klayman (USAW)

Renowned attorney Larry Klayman predicted on USAWatchdog.com that there would be full-blown, legal civil war happening in the court system. He also predicted that violence from the “rabid left” would not only increase but explode. Klayman, founder of Judicial Watch and now Freedom Watch USA, says there are now more than 233 federal court cases trying to stop or delay President Trump and his Administration. Klayman is here to update us on what is going on with the struggle America is having with the Deep State trying desperately to hold on to power.

Let’s start with Joe Biden’s appearance last week on ABC’s “The View,” where he looked confused and incompetent. Can all of Biden’s last-minute pardons of criminals and J6 members who destroyed evidence be enforced or are they null and void as President Trump has declared? Klayman says, “They are null and void and so is every other thing that was allegedly signed by him (Biden). He couldn’t even remember what he signed. . . . This is more than a scandal. It’s the worst scandal ever. Let me tell you something, Biden has not been abused as an elderly person. He abused the American people, and it’s much more than abuse. Biden committed treason.”

What about suspending “habeas corpus” as President Trump is thinking about doing to more quickly deport millions of illegal aliens? Klayman says, “He can do that in dire times, times of war. We are, in effect, in a war. We had drug traffickers, human traffickers, sex traffickers and terrorists running across our border in mass, over 10 million in the Biden Administration alone and many before that. So, yes, it’s a war-time situation, and he (President Trump) can suspend it. . . .Just get them the heck out of here. They are here illegally. They have no right to be here. The President should just ignore these edicts by these San Francisco judges and other judges . . . and do what he needs to do, and they can’t do anything. You know the judiciary has no ability to enforce any ruling. It’s only the Executive Branch, President Trump’s branch that he sit’s over, can enforce the rule of law.

This President has been sued thus far . . . in places like San Francisco, Chicago, Boston, Seattle, Portland and other places where they know they are going to get a Leftist judge. Federal judges are supposed to be assigned randomly. It’s like Wheel of Fortune, but that really does not happen. . . . They actually steer these cases. . . . We need to prosecute these judges and set up the Department of Judicial and Legal Accountability and work with President Trump. I hope he will appoint me to head that with others that will come on board because we need some strong leadership right now because he’s sinking. He (Trump) has been enjoined 70% to 80% of the time in every Executive Order that he has issued. This last one said Trump has no control over his departments anymore. There was a temporary restraining order that says you can’t cut workforce; you can’t do anything.”

Why all the attacks on President Trump? Klayman says, “They are attacking him because they hate him. . . . they are attacking him, and it’s all orchestrated. Washington is one giant, excuse the French, circle jerk. It’s a club.” Larry Klayman is representing conservative reporter Laura Loomer against Bill Maher and HBO. They are being sued by Loomer for falsely claiming she slept with President Trump. Klayman just deposed Maher and wants to release the video deposition. Maher’s lawyers have so far blocked that. Klayman says, “They are fighting tooth and nail to keep the video of Bill Maher secret so it can never be seen. Look at the hypocrisy. Laura Loomer gets defamed by Bill Maher, and the court has already denied a motion to dismiss . . .

She gets smeared all over the world, defamed that she had sex with the President behind the back of Melania. . . . Loomer’s reputation gets harmed, and this harms her financially . . . You can smear a woman and . . . . If President Clinton can have his deposition released, who is Bill Maher that he should be protected? Maher gave money to Kamela Harris as a political candidate. That’s why Maher went after Loomer, because she was a way to get to Trump.” In closing, Klayman has a warning, “Pro Hamas demonstrators are busting up campuses threatening Jews and Christians, we see that. We see Hakeem Jefferies the Minority Leader in the House, and Ilhan Omar, Rashita Tlaib, AOC and Bernie Sanders whipping up violence along with Jasmine Crockett, and they are calling for violence.” Are we headed for a civil war? Klayman says, “I believe we are.”

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Japan
https://twitter.com/Censored4sure/status/1921611973927842032

Civil war

Dore

Duck

Istanbul

 

 

 

 

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Jun 182023
 


John Singer Sargent Open Doorway, Morocco 1879-80

 

Ukrainian Counteroffensive’s Second Week Ends in Failure (Scott Ritter)
Ukraine Demilitarization Mainly Completed – Peskov (Sp.)
Biden Lays Down NATO warning For Ukraine (RT)
Partners in Doomsday (Seymour Hersh)
Putin: Kiev Threw Russia-Ukraine Settlement Deal Into Dustbin of History (Sp.)
South African President’s Security Detail Prevented From Going To Russia (RT)
African Nations Call For Indivisibility Of Global Security (TASS)
UAE President Meets With Putin In Russia (Cradle)
Ukraine Ready To Pay West In People’s Organs For Military Aid – Moscow (TASS)
West Pressured Countries To Skip SPIEF – Moscow (RT)
Rosneft’s Sechin: ‘Inflated US Debt Looms Over Asia-Pacific’ (Sp.)
De-Dollarization: Asian Central Banks To Adopt Iran’s SWIFT Alternative (ZH)
ECB Warns EU Against Skimming Profits From Stolen Russian Money (RT)
There Was No Pandemic (Schachtel)
Call the Exorcists! (Jim Kunstler)

 

 

 

 

“Trump Saved The USA”
https://twitter.com/i/status/1669931150448513026

 

 

 

 

Watters Gates
https://twitter.com/i/status/1669874281948348425

 

 

 

 

Day 1

 

 

 

 

Agenda 21

 

 

Pfizer Japan

 

 

REPORTER: “Donald Trump was indicted on 38 charges. He is facing up to 400 years. What does Moscow think about this?”

ZAKHAROVA: “There is nothing surprising about this. This is democracy in a liberal dictatorship style… As for 400 years, apparently they are afraid of him because they consider him immortal. The only thing I can tell you is that we will see more and more wonders and mystifications for one simple reason – liberalism has sunk into one of its deepest crises…”

 

 

 

 

“Ukrainian casualties were extremely heavy, with Russia achieving a 10:1 kill ratio in terms of manpower..”

Ukrainian Counteroffensive’s Second Week Ends in Failure (Scott Ritter)

Operation enters the second week of Ukraine’s long-awaited and highly touted counteroffensive, some basic conclusions can be drawn even though the fighting continues, and will continue to rage, for some time to come. First and foremost, the counteroffensive gambit has failed. While there is still considerable combat strength left in the Ukrainian military, including more than 75% of the NATO-trained and -equipped 60,000-strong cohort Ukraine had assembled in the past eight months, fundamentally flawed assumptions about the quality of the force on which Ukraine and its NATO allies had placed their collective hopes for victory over Russia have been exposed. In short, Ukraine lacks the military capacity to overcome Russian defenses.

Ukraine’s most elite assault brigades, equipped with the latest Western military technology, failed to advance out of what Russian defensive doctrine calls the “cover” line of defense—the buffer that is designed to channel and disrupt an attacking force prior to reaching the “main” line of defense. Ukrainian casualties were extremely heavy, with Russia achieving a 10:1 kill ratio in terms of manpower, which is unsustainable from the Ukrainian perspective. The reasons for the Ukrainian failure are fundamental in nature, meaning that they cannot be overcome as things currently stand and, as such, the Ukrainian military has zero chance of success, no matter how hard they press subsequent attacks.

First and foremost is the quality of the Russian defenses, especially in terms of the barrier network (minefields, obstacles, and trenches) which, when combined with the tenacity of the Russian defender and the overwhelming superiority Russia enjoys in terms of fire support (both artillery and air-delivered), is the reason the Ukrainians are unable to advance beyond the “cover” layer of the Russian defenses. Ukrainian equipment and tactics are insufficient to the task of breaching the Russian obstacle barriers in any meaningful manner, dooming the attacking forces to be destroyed piecemeal by Russian artillery and air strikes, as well as local counterattacks mounted by Russian special forces.

Besides the poor tactics and equipment deficiencies (yes, the Leopard tanks and Bradley fighting vehicles were not the miracle weapons Ukraine and its Western supporters had hyped them up to be), the Ukrainians are paying the price for Russia’s impressive suppression of enemy air defense (SEAD) campaign that has been ongoing for many weeks now. Russia has not only neutralized Ukraine’s ability to defend strategic targets far beyond the front lines, but also to project any meaningful air defense capability into the actual zone of conflict. This, combined with the lack of any viable air force, leaves the attacking Ukrainian ground forces exposed to the full weight of Russian air power.

Read more …

No weapons of their own left.

Ukraine Demilitarization Mainly Completed – Peskov (Sp.)

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Saturday that Ukraine’s demilitarization had been mainly completed as Kiev was using its own weapons much less and deploying more weapons supplied by the West. “Ukraine was very militarized at the start of the special military operation. And, as [Russian President Vladimir] Putin said yesterday, one of the tasks was the demilitarization of Ukraine. In fact, this task has been mainly completed because Ukraine is using much less of its own arms, while it is deploying more weapons systems supplied by the West,” Peskov told Russian broadcaster RT Arabic.


On the subject of peace negotiations, Peskov said on Saturday that there are provisions of different Ukraine peace initiatives that do not correlate with the Russian stance and are unacceptable, but Moscow is ready for a dialogue with Kiev. “Those provisions of different peace initiatives, which do not correlate with our stance, are certainly unacceptable for us, but we are open to dialogue unlike the Ukrainian side,” Peskov told Russian newspaper Izvestia. On Friday during a visit from several African leaders, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated that his country would not discuss an end to the conflict until Russian troops withdrawal from what he claims are Ukraine’s borders.

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“They’ve got to meet the same standards. So we’re not going to make it easy..”

Biden Lays Down NATO warning For Ukraine (RT)

Ukraine will not have an “easy” entry into the US-led NATO alliance and will be required to meet the “same standards” as any other member of the bloc, US President Joe Biden has declared. His remarks come amid reports of a simplified procedural plan for Kiev, tabled by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. “They’ve got to meet the same standards. So we’re not going to make it easy,” Biden told reporters near Washington on Saturday. His statement comes in the aftermath of a meeting he had with Stoltenberg, who was hosted at the White House this Tuesday. At the meeting, the NATO chief reportedly floated a plan to simplify the accession process for Ukraine, arguing that Kiev had already made significant progress toward membership.

Under his scheme, the country would not have been required to complete a so-called “membership action plan” (MAP), usually imposed by the US-led bloc on applicants. While other Eastern European members of the bloc went through this procedure before being admitted, the most recent addition, Finland, was spared the process. Multiple US media reports had suggested Biden appeared to be “open” to the plan and had even provisionally supported it. At the same time, other reporting on the subject suggested Biden had another scheme for Ukraine in mind.

For instance, the New York Times reported the US administration was reluctant to ever grant Ukraine full NATO membership, pushing instead for the ‘Israel model,’ which would mean a time-limited commitment to maintain the flow of Western weapons to a designated country. Joining NATO has been a top talking point for pro-Western Ukrainian politicians for decades already, yet little to no progress has actually been made on that path. The pace has seemingly picked up amid the ongoing conflict between Moscow and Kiev – triggered, among other things, by Ukraine’s NATO aspirations – with top Ukrainian officials repeatedly urging the US-led alliance to let the country in.

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“..At that time, even “in a fit of desperate rage,” “the ruling circles of a group of countries” would never have “unleashed a full-scale war in the underbelly of a nuclear superpower.”

Partners in Doomsday (Seymour Hersh)

Meanwhile, there has been an escalation in rhetoric about the war and its possible consequences from within Russia. It can be observed in an essay published in Russian and English on June 13 by Sergei A. Karaganov, an academic in Moscow who is chairman of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy. Karaganov is known to be close to Putin; he is taken seriously by some journalists in the West, most notably by Serge Schmemann, a longtime Moscow correspondent for the New York Times and now a member of the Times editorial board. Like me, he spent his early years as a journalist for the Associated Press. One of Karaganov’s main points is that the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine will not end even if Russia were to achieve a crushing victory.

There will remain, he writes, “an even more embittered ultranationalist population pumped up with weapons—a bleeding wound threatening inevitable complications and a new war.” The essay is suffused with despair. A Russian victory in Ukraine means a continued war with the West. “The worst situation,” he writes, “may occur if, at the cost of enormous losses, we liberate the whole of Ukraine and it remains in ruins with a population that mostly hates us. . . . The feud with the West will continue as it will support a low-grade guerrilla war.” A more attractive option would be to liberate the pro-Russian areas of Ukraine followed by demilitarization of Ukraine’s armed forces. But that would be possible, Karaganov writes, “only if and when we are able to break the West’s will to incite and support the Kiev junta, and to force it to retreat strategically.

“And this brings us to the most important but almost undiscussed issue. The underlying and even fundamental cause of the conflict in Ukraine and many other tensions in the world . . . is the accelerating failure of the modern ruling Western elites” to recognize and deal with the “globalization course of recent decades.” These changes, which Karaganov calls “unprecedented in history,” are key elements in the global balance of power that now favor “China and partly India acting as economic drivers, and Russia chosen by history to be its military strategic pillar.” The countries of the West, under leaders such as Biden and his aides, he writes, “are losing their five-century-long ability to siphon wealth around the world, imposing, primarily by brute force, political and economic orders and cultural dominance. So there will be no quick end to the unfolding Western defensive and aggressive confrontation.”

This shakeup of the world order, he writes, “has been brewing since the mid-1960s. . . . The defeat in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the beginning of the Western economic model crisis in 2008 were major milestones.” All of this points toward large-scale disaster: “Truce is possible, but peace is not. . . . This vector of the West’s movement unambiguously indicates a slide toward World War III. It is already beginning and may erupt into a full-blown firestorm by chance or due to the incompetence and irresponsibility of modern ruling circles in the West.”

In Karaganov’s view—I am in no way condoning or agreeing with it—the American-led war against Russia in Ukraine, with the support of NATO, has become more feasible, even ineluctable, because the fear of nuclear war is gone. What is happening today in Ukraine, he argues, would be “unthinkable” in the early years of the nuclear era. At that time, even “in a fit of desperate rage,” “the ruling circles of a group of countries” would never have “unleashed a full-scale war in the underbelly of a nuclear superpower.”

Read more …

“There was an agreement made in 2022. Which is why Russia removed their troops from the Kiev area. Ukraine, pressured by the US/UK – reneged on the agreement. Think of how many Ukrainians died because of that decision.”

Putin: Kiev Threw Russia-Ukraine Settlement Deal Into Dustbin of History (Sp.)

Russian President Vladimir Putin presented the African delegation with the draft of the Istanbul agreement on the Ukraine settlement, which, as the Russian president said, specifies everything from the number of armed forces to units of military equipment and personnel. “Here it is! It exists!” Putin said, showing the document signed by a Ukrainian representative. “And it is called accordingly – the treaty on permanent neutrality and security guarantees for Ukraine. Exactly about guarantees. Eighteen articles,” the Russian leader noted. “Moreover, there is also an annex to it. They [clauses] also concern the armed forces, other things. Everything is specified – down to the units of combat equipment and personnel of the armed forces. The document is here!” Putin said, adding that the document had been initialed and signed by the Ukrainian delegation.

“But after we withdrew the troops from Kiev, as we promised, the Kiev authorities, as their masters usually do, threw it all into the dustbin of history. Let’s put it clearly. I’ll try to put it intelligently. They gave it up,” he added. The president also addressed the root of the crisis, reminding his audience that the violence engulfed Ukraine after the bloody 2014 coup, which was backed by the US and the EU. “All the problems in Ukraine began after the state, unconstitutional, armed and bloody coup in 2014. And this coup was supported by Western sponsors. They, as a matter of fact, do not hesitate to talk about it,” he stressed. Earlier on Saturday, Putin personally received and greeted the African delegates at the Konstantinovsky Palace to discuss the joint African peace initiative on Ukraine.

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa revealed a ten-point plan for peaceful settlement. One of the points relates to the fact that all sides in the conflict are entitled to security guarantees. The fourth point refers to the fact that the authors of the plan recognize the sovereignty of all sides of the conflict. The sixth point refers to the “free movement of grain across the Black Sea” so that there would be no obstacles to it. “The third point is that we would like to see de-escalation of the conflict. De-escalation on both sides. Because escalation is not conducive to peace negotiations. So we would be interested in de-escalation of the conflict so that we can find a way to peace.”

Putin also underlined the issue of the grain deal, noting that about 31.7 million tonnes of agricultural products were exported from Ukrainian ports – while only 3% of this volume was sent to needy African countries, so the United States has “deceived the international community,” “Once again, these neo-colonial European, and in fact American, authorities have deceived the international community and needy African countries: 31.7 million tonnes were exported, and only three percent went to needy African countries. Isn’t that a lie? Accustomed to lying to the world for centuries and continue to do so today,” Putin said at a meeting with the African delegation at the Konstantinovsky Palace near St. Petersburg.

Read more …

The opposite of diplomacy. Hard to believe.

South African President’s Security Detail Prevented From Going To Russia (RT)

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has had to travel to Russia without dozens of his bodyguards, after Polish authorities effectively blocked a planeload of security personnel and members of the press pool at Warsaw airport, with Hungary then refusing to let the plane enter its airspace. One of the journalists told RT on Saturday that Budapest’s decision would not affect President Cyril Ramaphosa’s visit to St. Petersburg. The head of state is already in Russia, having arrived separately with a smaller contingent. South African reporter Queenin Masuabi confirmed the situation in a Twitter post, saying: “our government have been unable to secure access [to] the Hungarian airspace.” She added that “members of the Presidential Protection Unit, along with journalists, will not be traveling to Russia.”

On Thursday, the Polish Border Security Service allegedly prohibited members of Ramaphosa’s security team, consisting of more than 100 personnel, along with 20 reporters, from leaving their plane at Chopin Airport in Warsaw. According to one of the journalists stranded on board, who spoke to RT, Polish officials had demanded that members of the South African Presidential Protection Services (PPS) surrender their weapons, claiming that they did not have the correct permits to bring them into the country. One member of the team was even reportedly strip-searched by Polish police despite holding a diplomatic passport. “That’s never happened before in all the years of travel by the PPS. This is now a diplomatic row,” the reporter told RT, describing the “hostile welcome” as completely unexpected.

Another journalist on the plane said Polish authorities allowed the delegation to leave the aircraft on Friday after a more than 24-hour wait. Ramaphosa’s head of security, Major General Wally Rhoode, accused Warsaw of attempting to sabotage Pretoria’s efforts to secure a truce between Ukraine and Russia. Polish authorities, in turn, insisted that Ramaphosa’s delegation chose not to disembark from the plane of their own accord. The Polish Foreign Ministry clarified that the flight had been delayed after discovering “dangerous materials” and “undeclared individuals” on board.

As a result, Ramaphosa had to travel to Kiev without members of his security detail on Friday. The South African head of state, along with senior officials from Senegal, Egypt, Zambia, South Africa, and the Comoros, met with President Vladimir Zelensky in the Ukrainian capital. They put forward a roadmap aimed at a cessation of hostilities between Kiev and Moscow, which the Ukrainian leadership treated without much enthusiasm. On Saturday, the African Peace Mission arrived in St. Petersburg for talks with President Vladimir Putin.

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“..African countries have shown an understanding of the root causes of the Ukraine crisis, “which was created by the West’s efforts..”

African Nations Call For Indivisibility Of Global Security (TASS)

African countries stand for the indivisibility of global security, and Russia backs this principled position, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Saturday after Russian President Vladimir Putin’s meeting with an African peace mission. “First of all, they (African countries – TASS) highlighted China’s well-known twelve points, which were presented a couple of months ago, and they highlighted those parts of that Chinese initiative that are close to them and that stipulate that there no double standards in the world, that all the principles of the UN Charter in their integrity and correlation are respected and implemented, that there are no unilateral sanctions, that there are no attempts to ensure someone’s security at the expense of others, that security is indivisible on a global scale. They are the principled attitudes that we share,” he said.


Lavrov also pointed out that African countries have shown an understanding of the root causes of the Ukraine crisis, “which was created by the West’s efforts”. “They have shown an understanding that this situation has to be resolved by grappling with those root causes, by working out specific real actions to eliminate the causes that are undermining and have been undermining fair security in Europe throughout many years,” the Russian foreign minister said. The African peace mission has brought together South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, President of the Comoros Azali Assoumani, Senegal’s President Macky Sall, Zambia’s President Hakainde Hichilema, as well as Egypt’s Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly and Florent Ntsiba and Ruhakana Rugunda, special envoys of the presidents of the Republic of the Congo and Uganda respectively. On June 16, the mission visited Kiev, where they held talks with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky. On June 17, the African delegation held a meeting with Putin in St. Petersburg, where they outlined their initiative.

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“..the UAE imported 75.7 tonnes of Russian gold worth $4.3 billion in the past year after imports reached just 1.3 tonnes in 2021..”

UAE President Meets With Putin In Russia (Cradle)

The UAE’s President, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan (MbZ), affirmed to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on 16 June that Abu Dhabi seeks to strengthen relations with Moscow. MbZ told Putin on the sidelines of a meeting in St. Petersberg: “I am pleased to be here today with you, your Excellency, and we wish to build on this relationship, and we put our trust in you to do so.” He added that the UAE will continue to support efforts toward facilitating a political solution via diplomacy in order to resolve the political dispute between Moscow and Kiev, and ensure political stability. Following the start of Russia’s war in Ukraine, the UAE did not take a stance against Moscow as desired by Washington, and has since attempted to mediate between the Russian and Ukrainian sides.

Abu Dhabi has previously facilitated prisoner exchanges between the two. According to a Reuters report, Putin thanked MbZ for his role in the prisoner exchanges, calling the UAE a “very good partner” to Moscow. Reuters reported on 25 May that the UAE has also become an integral facilitator for Russian gold sales since western sanctions over the war in Ukraine blocked Russia’s more traditional export routes. Russian customs records viewed by Reuters show the UAE imported 75.7 tonnes of Russian gold worth $4.3 billion in the past year after imports reached just 1.3 tonnes in 2021. Since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, western financial institutions stopped brokering Russian gold sales; however, Russian gold producers found new markets in countries willing to fill the void.

A month prior, AP reported that Russian and UAE intelligence officers disclosed that the two nations are collaborating to combat US and UK intelligence agencies in response to an alleged US intelligence breach. Additionally, Russian nationals have become the largest buying group of real estate in Dubai since the war in Ukraine began, driving sales to a new record high.

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350,000 young dead bodies.

“After relevant surgical procedures, the bodies are burned and the relatives are told that the serviceman is just missing..”

Ukraine Ready To Pay West In People’s Organs For Military Aid – Moscow (TASS)

Ukraine is ready to trade the organs of its people for Western military assistance, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum on Thursday. The diplomat said the Kiev regime is rapidly turning the country into a global hub of human organ trafficking. “The Kiev regime is ready to pay anything for the military assistance it gets. It’s now even come to the human organs of its citizens. A time will probably come when Ukraine will understand the true reason why its pretend US and European friends cared about it. But that won’t be soon enough. Still, better later than never,” she said.

“They literally took a knife to the country, but it will be too late to complain. The patient has already signed consent for surgery. The relevant international organizations, with an art worthy of a better cause, are ignoring these obvious and criminal phenomena,” Zakharova said. The diplomat said Western countries are the main beneficiaries of illicit transplantation practices in Ukraine. “The scenario has been rehearsed in Yugoslavia. All organs that were removed from the people, who were killed then, went to cater to the needs of Westerners,” she said. According to Zakharova, the business of illicit transplantation surgeries is thriving thanks to the high losses that Ukrainian forces suffer at the frontline.

“After relevant surgical procedures, the bodies are burned and the relatives are told that the serviceman is just missing. These dreadful machinations wouldn’t be possible without permission granted by the Kiev regime at the highest level. That’s because they are backed by legislation. The country has essentially become a honeypot for criminals. The money that illicit transplant operators are making in Ukraine is simply insane, and they aren’t going to stop,” the diplomat continued. Ukraine has done a lot to streamline transplantation surgeries.

“For example, on December 16, 2021, the Verkhovnaya Rada adopted Law 5831 On Regulating the Transplantation of Human Anatomical Materials. Under the law, a transplantation now doesn’t require a notarized consent from the living donor or his relatives. The procedure for organ removal from the deceased has also been significantly simplified, even if they didn’t give their consent for donating their organs post-mortem. That means it has been made legal by law, not just a fact on the ground,” she said. “Not only government clinics, but also private clinics have been given the right to perform transplantations. Can you imagine a private clinic in Ukraine these days? On April 4, 2022 the Verkhovnaya Rada adopted Law 5610 On Amending the Tax Code. It exempted organ transplantation surgeries from the VAT. It’s not just about budget revenue, it’s about additional control,” Zakharova said.

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“..literally every country” was approached..”

And still 130 showed up.

West Pressured Countries To Skip SPIEF – Moscow (RT)

The US and its allies threatened countries with consequences if they decided to send delegations to the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova has said. Speaking to TASS news agency on the sidelines of the forum in Russia’s second-largest city on Saturday, Zakharova was asked whether the West had tried to pressure nations that intended to participate in the event. “There was immense pressure,” she replied, adding that “literally every country” was approached. “They wrote letters. Threats were made during the meetings,” she claimed. Washington was the “leader” of these efforts, and was helped by other “NATO-centric countries,” the spokeswoman said.

The US and its allies told nations that were planning to attend SPIEF that they “would face consequences, that the next… package of sanctions is just around the corner and that everyone should think twice before participating in events on the territory of Russia,” Zakharova said. The West has been acting in a similar manner ahead of talks between Moscow and other capitals, or the signing of major business deals between Russian firms and foreign partners, she claimed. “Every time, curators from the US, UK, the EU either head out in advance to relevant countries… to pressure local officials and business representatives, intimidate, paint scary pictures. Or they come afterwards in order to try to destroy the agreements that had been reached,” Zakharova said.

She claimed that such efforts routinely take place ahead of visits by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to the African continent. According to Zakharova, the US and its allies target Russia’s international ties in all areas, including “culture, economy, business, politics, media cooperation.” SPIEF, which has been held annually since 1997, welcomed some 17,000 guests from 130 countries this year, the organizers said. With Western nations dropping out of the event due to the conflict in Ukraine, most of the participants came from Asia, including China and India, the Middle East, Latin America and Africa. The United Arab Emirates is the guest of honor of this year’s forum, which closes on Saturday.

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“..the Asian-Pacific countries are the main holders of the US debt and thus are facing the biggest risks..”

Rosneft’s Sechin: ‘Inflated US Debt Looms Over Asia-Pacific’ (Sp.)

Igor Sechin, head of Russia’s energy company Rosneft stated that US debt is inflated and looms over the Asia-Pacific region as its main holder. “The US debt has jumped 10-fold from $3 trillion to over $31 trillion over the past 30 years. This is two times ahead of the economic growth rate and the cost of servicing it can reach $1 trillion a year, which is a fifth of the budget, and this figure is growing,” Sechin said. He stressed that the Asian-Pacific countries are the main holders of the US debt and thus are facing the biggest risks. Sechin also touched upon the matter of Europe’s dependence on US energy resources. According to him, as a result of the refusal to buy Russian gas and in the absence of other sources of LNG, Europe has found itself completely dependent on energy supplies from the US. “In fact, the European policy of diversification of gas supplies has completely failed,” Sechin concluded.

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Step by step.

De-Dollarization: Asian Central Banks To Adopt Iran’s SWIFT Alternative (ZH)

In the latest shot fired in the growing rebellion against US dollar dominance, the nine-nation Asian Clearing Union (ACU) has agreed to use Iran’s financial messaging system as an alternative to the dollar-denominated SWIFT system that has long served as the globe’s financial nervous system. “The secretary general of the Asian Clearing Union (ACU) says Iran’s financial messaging system SEPAM will replace SWIFT, a dollar-based international system, in trade exchanges between ACU members beginning next month,” Iran’s IRNA News Agency reported. At a Tehran summit in May, ACU members agreed to establish a SWIFT alternative within a month. The adoption of Iran’s SEPAM will be an interim measure, as the ACU will develop its own messaging system over the next several months.

Established in 1974, the ACU now comprises the central banks of India, Pakistan, Iran, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Maldives, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Bhutan. Belarus and Mauritius applied for ACU membership at the May summit meeting. Along with Russia and Belarus, Iran has been excluded from SWIFT as part of the US economic sanctions regime. Russia and Iran have established their own alternative connection, linking Iran’s SEPAM with the Financial Messaging System of the Bank Of Russia. In May, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told press that “approximately 80% of our mutual settlements are in national currencies: rials and rubles.” The broad de-dollarization trend is the inevitable result of the US government’s knee-jerk use of economic warfare to punish countries that resist its agenda. The quantity of US sanctions exploded by 933% between 2000 and 2021.

You needn’t be a current target of US sanctions to be attracted to non-dollar trade alternatives. “In the face of the American empire’s relentless and compulsive use of sanctions to punish noncompliance with its edicts, any rational government would be wary of the possibility of being targeted over some future controversy with Washington,” wrote Brian McGlinchey at Stark Realities. The ACU’s move follows a growing assortment of other de-dollarization initiatives around the globe. As catalogued by The Cradle’s Pepe Escobar, a sampling includes:
• China and France’s Total trading liquid national gas in yuan
• Russia and China using the ruble or yuan for more than 70% of their trade
• India and Russia trading oil in rupees
• Brazil’s Banco BBM becoming the first Latin American bank to join China’s SWIFT alternative — the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS)
• 19 countries applying to join BRICS, the a geopolitical rival to the the G7 that originally comprised Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa
As Escobar summed up the world-changing transition, “The Hegemon – clinging to a toxic cocktail of neoliberalism, sanction dementia, and widespread threats – is bleeding from within. De-dollarization is an inevitable response to system collapse. In a Sun Tzu 2.0 environment, it is no wonder the Russia-China strategic partnership exhibits no intention of interrupting the enemy when he is so busy defeating himself.”

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Give it all to Ukraine so they can skim it.

ECB Warns EU Against Skimming Profits From Stolen Russian Money (RT)

The European Central Bank (ECB) on Friday privately warned the European Commission against tapping interest from frozen Russian assets, the Financial Times reported, citing a draft internal note from the ECB’s governing council. EU lawmakers have been mulling ways of deploying some of the proceeds for the restoration of Ukraine, which faces a huge reconstruction bill once the conflict with Russia ends. According to the report, the ECB fears that such actions could encourage other central banks that hold large forex reserves to “turn their back” on the euro, especially if the EU decides to act alone and not in a joint move with G7 countries.

“There is no disagreement that this is morally the right thing to do, but the ‘how’ is very difficult. You can’t skirt the rule of law. And if you find something that is legally tenable what are the implications for the euro’s standing as a global currency?” an unnamed EU diplomat told the newspaper. He added that the commission is finalizing proposals on the potential tapping of frozen Russian assets, which are expected to be unveiled later this month. EU securities depositories have seized some €196.6 billion ($215 billion) in Russian assets since the start of the conflict, the news outlet noted, adding that Belgium-based Euroclear alone generated €734 million ($805 million) of interest on cash balances from Russia-sanctioned assets in the first quarter of 2023.

In total, Western governments have frozen about $300 billion in Russian central bank assets since the start of Russia’s military operation in Ukraine, and seized more than $80 billion worth of assets belonging to Russian citizens and businesses. While addressing the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) on Friday, Russian President Vladimir Putin described these actions as “medieval.” “Many businessmen were stunned to see that their accounts in the West were frozen. It never crossed anyone’s mind. This is robbery. They closed them, took them away and won’t even explain why. It’s shocking. It’s like the Middle Ages,” the Russian president said.

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“..just a run-of-the-mill respiratory season, weaponized and fueled by a continuous global hysteria.”

There Was No Pandemic (Schachtel)

Now that the hysteria is finally winding down, “experts” and commentators on both the pro lockdown and anti lockdown side are discussing the “lessons learned” from the pandemic, as if there was something uniquely outside of the norm about the nature of illness we’ve witnessed. They’ve boxed themselves into a false paradigm, similar to the lab leak versus natural origin debate. These forces, whether they are aware of it or not, are operating within a purposely limited framework. They’ve been captured by the Government Health/Big Pharma narrative that there was in fact an emergency that demanded a response, and most won’t dare step out of line to question the authenticity of the premise itself.

But as we explained Thursday in our piece, “it really was just the flu, bro,” there was no significant distinction between the covid years and your average flu season. There are no “lessons to be learned from the pandemic” because there was no pandemic. Covid-19 simply doesn’t fit the bill, according to the widely understood interpretation of what a pandemic entails. We must let go of the limitations of this false “pandemic” construct that is labeled covid-19. We need not take the bait that there was a pandemic that had to be dealt with. There was certainly a global hysteria, but it was a psychological hysteria. There was no global viral emergency, because the vast majority of the global population was not significantly threatened by this supposedly devastating disease.

Had the world been caught up with say, some other “emergency” on our minds, “the pandemic” would have just been written off as another human respiratory illness season. If anything, the lesson to be learned is not to put your trust in the hands of the government, which, either through malice or reckless indifference, encouraged widespread iatrogenic injury as the solution to a nonexistent pandemic. It wasn’t “the pandemic” that devastated the global economy and wrecked civilization, it was the top-down dictates from above that caused millions of excess deaths worldwide, all to supposedly combat a disease that was not out of the ordinary whatsoever. Covid-19 was just the flu. There was no pandemic, but just a run-of-the-mill respiratory season, weaponized and fueled by a continuous global hysteria.

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“..American Ambassador to Ukraine, Marie Yovanovitch, sent panicky emails to the folks back home about Onyshschenko’s allegations of Biden bribery..”

Call the Exorcists! (Jim Kunstler)

The dybbuk Weissmann is best known, of course, for directing the Special Counsel’s “Russian Collusion” campaign (2017 – 2019) in the mental absence of its nominal chief, Robert Mueller, an endeavor that, in the end, could not find any instance of then-President Trump colluding with said Russians — but did, via a firehose of media leaks, succeed in casting a Trump derangement spell over half the US population. Dybbuk Weissmann lately haunts the MSNBC cable news channel as a “legal analyst.” And yet, this shape-shifting fiend turns up again now in the Biden family global bribery matter, of all things. See if you can follow the convoluted tale coming out of Dybbuk Central a.k.a. Ukraine and the FBI.

You may already know that in May, 2014, R. Hunter Biden, son of then-vice president Joe Biden, was appointed to the board of the Ukrainian natgas company Burisma, where he was paid $80,000-a-month for his expertise (he had none) in the global gas industry. As it happened, at exactly the same time Veep Joe Biden was appointed as then-President Barack Obama’s “point man” in Ukraine after the 2014 Maidan Coup, engineered by Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland and the CIA, that ousted elected President Viktor Yanukovych. By and by, Ukraine elected a new American-friendly president, Petro Poroshenko. Burisma was owned by an oligarch name of Mykola Zlochevsky. Apparently, the $80-K-a-month for Hunter Biden was not enough. The friendly American veep, Joe Biden, pressed Burisma’s Zlochevsky to provide $5-million payment each to Hunter and himself for additional Biden family services in Ukraine.

President Petro Poroshenko had a political confidant and fixer (problem solver) named Oleksandr Onyshchenko, then a member of Ukraine’s parliament. In the 2015-16 time-frame, Onyshchenko conveyed a message to Zlochevsky that paying large sums of money to the Bidens might not be a good idea. Somehow, Onyshchenko’s complaints about the Bidens’ grift operation made it into the leading Kiev newspaper. As we all know, in November, 2016, Donald Trump was elected US President. Catastrophe! Freak-out in the US embassy in Kiev! December, 2016, American Ambassador to Ukraine, Marie Yovanovitch, sent panicky emails to the folks back home about Onyshschenko’s allegations of Biden bribery. One of the recipients was a CIA agent implanted in the National Security Council name of Eric Ciaramella, later known as the Ukraine Phone Call Whistleblower.

Now, you may recall that in the summer of 2019, the owner of a Delaware computer repair shop, one John Paul Mac Isaac, came into possession of a laptop abandoned by Hunter Biden — under law, being left 90-days after repairs were made — and seeing its startling contents, tried to give it to the FBI, but was rebuffed. By then, CIA agent Eric Ciaramella had blown his whistle over a phone call Mr. Trump made to new Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky inquiring about the Bidens’ doings there. Later that fall, with impeachment proceedings started against President Trump, FBI agents came back at Mr. Mac Isaac and took the computer into the agency’s possession. Consider that FBI Director Christopher Wray must have known about the laptop coming into his HQ and what it contained — and known that throughout the impeachment and Senate trial proceedings of Mr. Trump, And, of course, Mr. Wray did not volunteer any of this evidence about the Bidens to Mr. Trump’s defense attorneys. Nor did then-Attorney General William Barr, Mr. Wray’s superior. Odd, a little bit?

Read more …

 

 

 

 

Tiny turtle
https://twitter.com/i/status/1670107887258030080

 

 

 

 

 

 

2 types
https://twitter.com/i/status/1669804332961656832

 

 

 

 

Eagle

 

 

Eagle??
https://twitter.com/i/status/1669813828295573506

 

 

 

 

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Nov 132022
 
 November 13, 2022  Posted by at 9:54 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , , ,  50 Responses »


Salvador Dali The three pines 1919

 

UK and EU To Try To Isolate Russia At G20 Summit (RT)
The New Candidate Countries For BRICS Expansion (SRB)
Surovikin’s Difficult Choice (Big Serge)
Tens of Billions Transferred to Ukraine and Laundered Through FTX (GP)
The FTX-Alameda Nexus (Coppola)
Up To $2 Billion In Client Money Missing In Crypto Giant FTX Collapse (NYP)
First Batch Of Blocked Russian Fertilizers Allowed To Leave EU Port (RT)
Showdown Slow Down (Jim Kunstler)
Crrraaaazy Wally -Street, That Is- (Denninger)
Ports Clogged With Containers As World Trade Stumbles (ZH)
Developing Nations Demand Rich Countries Pay For Climate Change (RT)
US Intel Report Vilifies Key Ally UAE – WaPo (RT)
La Scala Replies To Call To ‘Cancel’ Russian Composers (RT)
Elon Musk In Court Over $56 Billion Tesla Bonus (Telegraaf)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Who will be isolated? The collective west.

UK and EU To Try To Isolate Russia At G20 Summit (RT)

The UK and the EU intend to coordinate their efforts and do “everything possible” to make the Russian delegation feel unwelcome at the upcoming G20 summit in Indonesia’s Bali, a British media outlet has claimed. The Telegraph pointed out, however, that China, and possibly several other key players, is highly unlikely to follow suit. “We try to work with partners in order to show very, very, very firmly what the international community thinks about all these crimes, atrocities, and illegal actions by Russia,” a spokesperson for the EU’s foreign affairs service told the paper. The spokesperson explained that the bloc, together with the UK, will not only shun Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and stage walkouts during addresses by Moscow’s delegation, but also try to convince other nations to do the same.

According to the anonymous official, while the “UK is not keen on coordinating with the EU on foreign policy in general,” the concerted efforts to isolate Russia have proven to be an exception, as London and Brussels “have the same objective.” The report also quoted a French government source as saying that the meeting in Bali will not be “business as usual” and will center on the Ukraine conflict. “There will be a coalition and Russia is isolated,” the official concluded. The article noted, however, that the total isolation of Russia at the event is unlikely, as the country enjoys close relations with China. One unnamed EU official told the paper that Moscow and Beijing are expected to water down any joint statement calling for de-escalation in Ukraine.

The report also suggested that the likes of India, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye, which have not joined Western sanctions against Moscow, could break ranks with the EU and UK this time as well. Relations between Moscow and the West have hit an all-time low in the wake of the Russian military operation in Ukraine. However, Moscow has insisted that any attempts to isolate the country will fail. The key organizations that Russia is part of, such as BRICS, are also expanding. In fact, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa revealed following a meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman last month that Riyadh would like to join BRICS, which currently comprises Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. On top of that, media reports claimed back in July that Türkiye and Egypt might also be interested. Since the start of the year three countries – Iran, Argentina, and Algeria – have officially applied to join BRICS.

Read more …

I’d say the list is pretty much endless. Once you have South Africa, Nigeria, Egypt and Senegal, all African countries will want to join. Same in South America, Asia.

The New Candidate Countries For BRICS Expansion (SRB)

The Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov has stated that ‘over a dozen’ countries have formally applied to join the BRICS grouping following the groups decision to allow new members earlier this year. The BRICS currently includes Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. It is not a free trade bloc, but members do coordinate on trade matters and have established a policy bank, the New Development Bank, (NDB) to coordinate infrastructure loans. That was set up in 2014 in order to provide alternative loan mechanisms from the IMF and World Bank structures, which the members had felt had become too US-centric.

The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) was set up by China at about the same time for largely the same reasons and to offer alternative financing than that provided by the IMF and World Banks, which were felt to impose political reform policies designed to assist the United States in return for providing loans. Both the NDB and AIIB banks are Triple A rated and capitalised at US$100 billion. The NDB bank shares are held equally by each of the five members. In total, the BRICS grouping as it currently stands accounts for over 40% of the global population and nearly a quarter of the world’s GDP. The GDP figure is expected to double to 50% of global GDP by 2030. Expanding BRICS will immediately accelerate that process.

Concerning a BRICS expansion, Lavrov stated that Algeria, Argentina, and Iran had all applied, while it is already known that Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, Egypt and Afghanistan are interested, along with Indonesia, which is expected to make a formal application to join at the upcoming G20 summit in Bali. Other likely contenders for membership include Kazakhstan, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Senegal, Thailand and the United Arab Emirates. All had their Finance Ministers present at the BRICS Expansion dialogue meeting held in May. We can examine the basic economic data of the proposed new BRICS members as follows. GDP figures given are nominal, 2022 growth rates are based on the first 9 months of the year from data issued by the respective Central Banks.

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Not fully convinced.

Surovikin’s Difficult Choice (Big Serge)

Here is what I think Surovikin decided about Kherson. Kherson was becoming an inefficient front for Russia because of the logistical strain of supplying forces across the river with limited bridge and road capacity. Russia demonstrated that it was capable of shouldering this sustainment burden (keeping troops supplied all through Ukraine’s summer offensives), but the question becomes 1) to what purpose, and 2) for how long. Ideally, the bridgehead becomes the launching point for offensive action against Nikolayev, but launching an offensive would require strengthening the force grouping in Kherson, which correspondingly raises the logistical burden of projecting force across the river. With a very long front to play with, Kherson is clearly one of the most logistically intensive axes.

My guess is that Surovikin took charge and almost immediately decided he did not want to increase the sustainment burden by trying to push on Nikolayev. Therefore, if an offensive is not going to be launched from the Kherson position, the question becomes – why hold the position at all? Politically, it is important to defend a regional capital, but militarily the position becomes meaningless if one is not going to go on the offensive in the south. Let’s be even more explicit: unless an offensive towards Nikolayev is planned, the Kherson bridgehead is militarily counterproductive. While holding the bridgehead in Kherson, the Dnieper River becomes a negative force multiplier – increasing the sustainment and logistics burden and ever threatening to leave forces cut off if Ukraine succeeds in destroying the bridges or bursting the dam.

Projecting force across the river becomes a heavy burden with no obvious benefit. But by withdrawing to the east bank, the river becomes a positive force multiplier by serving as a defensive barrier. In the broader operational sense, Surovikin seems to be declining battle in the south while preparing in the north and in the Donbas. It is clear that he made this decision shortly after taking command of the operation – he has been hinting at it for weeks, and the speed and cleanliness of the withdrawal suggests that it was well planned , long in advance. Withdrawing across the river increases the combat effectiveness of the army significantly and decreases the logistical burden, freeing resources for other sectors. This fits the overall Russian pattern of making harsh choices about resource allocation, fighting this war under the simple framework of optimizing the loss ratios and building the perfect meatgrinder.

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Money Laundering 101.
1. Foreign aid goes to Ukraine.
2. Ukraine invests in $FTX
3. $FTX donates back to the Democratic Party.

Tens of Billions Transferred to Ukraine and Laundered Through FTX (GP)

We have information that the tens of billions of dollars going to Ukraine were actually laundered back to the US to corrupt Democrats and elites using FTX cryptocurrency. Now the money is gone and FTX is bankrupt. Earlier today we reported that the FTX cryptocurrency appeared to be used in a ponzi scheme involving the Democrats and Ukraine. As reported earlier, the FTX crypto company gave at least $40 million to Democrat candidates and causes in the midterms. Sam Bankman-Fried is Biden’s second biggest donor. In addition to this, Daily Caller lists many of the lawmakers who Sam Bankman Fried was bankrolling who oversaw the institution that was supposed to keep on eye on companies like FTX:

“Sam Bankman-Fried, prolific Democratic donor and ex-CEO of now-bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange FTX, funded the campaigns of members of Congress overseeing the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), one of the key bodies tasked with regulating the crypto industry and the subject of Bankman-Fried’s aggressive lobbying. Bankman-Fried’s FTX is currently under investigation by the CFTC and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) after Bankman-Fried allegedly moved $10 billion in client assets from his crypto exchange to his trading firm Alameda Research, and a liquidity crisis at his exchange which prompted the company to file for bankruptcy. However, prior to the agency’s probe, Bankman-Fried aggressively courted the CFTC – and funded several key lawmakers charged with overseeing the agency, pouring cash into their campaign coffers.”

FTX also happens to be related to Ukraine. The far-left Washington Post reported on March 3 that Ukraine was dealing in crypto. “The Ukrainian government has gathered more than $42 million in cryptocurrency donations since Saturday, plus digital artwork including a limited edition worth roughly $200,000, according to blockchain analytics firm Elliptic. The challenge is how the country cashes in on these assets to fund its war needs.” Then less than a week later FTX made the news for involving itself in Ukraine: “Amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the CEO of FTX, Sam Bankman Fried has come forward to help a crypto donation project. He humbly announced that FTX will be supporting the Ukrainian Ministry of Finance and other communities in collecting crypto donations for the country. The Ukrainian government has received over $60 million in crypto donations from all over the world.”

“FTX’s CEO, Sam Bankman Fried highlighted that the war in Ukraine has been dragging on. The country is in full need of humanitarian help and access to global financial infrastructure. He also called attention to sanctions and crypto during this kind of situation. He indicated that crypto exchanges should enforce sanctions announced by the government seriously. FTX has stressed across all of its regulatory and policy efforts, active coordination and communication with regulators and policymakers is crucial to ensuring that laws and rules achieve their intended outcome, reads a letter by FTXPointing out the urgency to help the nation Sam Bankman announced that the FTX team is honored to support the Ukrainian Ministry of Finance in simplifying the donation process.”

Read more …

Create you own token… “Customer assets deposited on the exchange are routinely lent to the hedge fund against collateral consisting of the exchange’s tokens.”

The FTX-Alameda Nexus (Coppola)

The young, dynamic, ambitious owner of a crypto hedge fund – let’s call him “Joe” – sets up a crypto exchange. To start with, this just enables his hedge fund can trade without having to pay margin or exchange fees. But Joe has larger ambitions. He wants to run the biggest and best exchange in the world. And he wants to make money from it. Lots and lots of money. Trillions of dollars, in fact. Now, his hedge fund can make money by taking risky leveraged positions, but it has to raise funds, and that’s not cheap. And his exchange can make money by charging fees on transactions, but although that can be a nice slow steady income, it’s not going to make him the trillions of dollars he wants.

But Joe’s spotted an opportunity. The exchange has lots of customer assets that aren’t earning anything. If he puts those customer assets to work, he can earn far more from his exchange customers. And he’s got an obvious vehicle through which to put them to work. The hedge fund. If he transfers customer assets on the exchange to the hedge fund, it can lend or pledge them at risk to earn megabucks. Of course, there’s a risk that the hedge fund could lose some or all of the customers’ funds. And the exchange promises that customers can have their assets back on demand, which could be a trifle problematic if they are locked up in leveraged positions held by the hedge fund. But this is crypto. There’s an easy solution. The exchange can issue its own token to replace the customer assets transferred to the hedge fund.

The exchange will report customer balances in terms of the assets they have deposited, but what it will actually hold will be its own token. If customers request to withdraw their balances, the exchange will sell its own tokens to obtain the necessary assets – after all, crypto assets, like dollars, are fungible. For this to work, however, the token must reliably hold its value. So the exchange creates more of the tokens than are needed to replace customer balances, and the hedge fund actively buys and sells them on the exchange, thus creating a market in the things and pumping the price. The price rockets, inflating the balance sheets of both the hedge fund and the exchange, and making $billions in unrealised profits for Joe and his investors – of whom there are suddenly a whole lot more, including some exceedingly respectable institutional investors.

It works brilliantly. So, this becomes Joe’s business model. Customer assets deposited on the exchange are routinely lent to the hedge fund against collateral consisting of the exchange’s tokens. There’s a massive and growing mismatch between the asset balances reported to customers on the exchange and the assets the exchange actually holds. But it doesn’t matter, because the token is highly liquid and the value of the tokens pledged as collateral comfortably exceeds the value of the missing customer assets. And the exchange can easily honour all withdrawal requests by trading out its own tokens. Indeed, the tokens are doing so well that even when the hedge fund suffers serious losses in a crypto crash, the exchange is able to bail it out. It’s completely self-sustaining. That is, until the token’s value crashes.

Read more …

“SBF and two FTX associates are currently being detained by authorities in the Bahamas, a source tells Cointelegraph..”

Up To $2 Billion In Client Money Missing In Crypto Giant FTX Collapse (NYP)

At least $1 billion of customer funds — and possibly as much as $2 billion — have gone missing in the implosion of the crypto currency exchange FTX, according to reports. FTX’s flamboyant founder, Sam Bankman-Fried, known in the industry as “SBF,” secretly funneled $10 billion of customer funds into his trading company, Alameda Research, sources told two media outlets. Alameda Research is run by Bankman-Fried’s girlfriend, Caroline Ellison. Two senior FTX officials claimed they saw the evidence that the money was missing in copies of financial records Bankman-Fried shared with company executives last week, according to Reuters.


On Friday, Bankman-Fried stepped down from his CEO position as the Bahamas-based FTX filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, after scrambling to shore up an $8 billion liquidity crisis that has left investors unable to claim their funds. A bid to save FTX via a rescue deal with rival exchange Binance didn’t work out, leading to crypto’s highest-profile collapse in recent years. In text messages to Reuters, Bankman-Fried, one of the largest donors to the Democratic Party, said he “disagreed with the characterization” of the $10 billion transfer. “We didn’t secretly transfer,” he said. “We had confusing internal labeling and misread it,” he added, without elaborating. “???” was Bankman-Fried’s response, when asked about the missing cash.

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“In September, he said that Russia was prepared to give these fertilizers to developing nations free of charge.”

So yeah, let’s block it for months…

First Batch Of Blocked Russian Fertilizers Allowed To Leave EU Port (RT)

The first batch of Russian fertilizers, which have been blocked at EU ports amid Ukraine-related sanctions, has been given permission to leave next week, the UN announced on Friday. The cargo amounts to 20,000 tons and is currently stationed in the Dutch port of Rotterdam. It is destined for the African nation of Malawi under the UN World Food Program. “The UN also briefed on recently issued General Licenses and shipments of fertilizer to developing countries’ destinations and its ongoing engagement with private sector and member states. It is anticipated that the first shipment of donated fertilizers will depart for Malawi in the coming week,” the UN said in a statement released after a meeting between senior UN officials and a Russian delegation led by Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Vershinin on Friday.

The meeting centered on Russia’s continued dissatisfaction with UN efforts to lift Western sanctions that pose problems for Russia’s agricultural exports. The organization pledged to assist Russia in the matter back in July as part of a UN-brokered Ukrainian grain deal, which unblocked the export of food and fertilizers from several Black Sea ports. Russia said it may choose not to extend its participation in the deal, which is set to expire on November 19, if the UN does not follow through on its promises regarding Russian exports. On Friday, the Dutch government confirmed that the Russian fertilizer cargo has been given permission to leave the port on the UN’s request. “The decision to release the fertilizer was made on the understanding that the UN would ensure that it is delivered to the agreed location, Malawi, and that the Russian company and sanctioned individual will earn nothing from the transaction,” the Dutch Foreign Affairs Ministry said in a statement.

It did not disclose the name of the Russian company that owns the shipment. Earlier this month, however, TASS news agency reported that Russian fertilizer producer Uralchem-Uralkali was ready to donate 240,000 tons of its fertilizers stuck in EU warehouses for humanitarian purposes, with the first shipment destined for Malawi. Prior to this, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that a total of 300,000 tons of Russian fertilizers were stuck at EU ports due to Western sanctions. In September, he said that Russia was prepared to give these fertilizers to developing nations free of charge.

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“The opponents of Progressive-Woke-Jacobinism don’t need a circus ringmaster. They need a credible leader, especially one that can manage his or her emotions at least as well as Vladimir Putin does.”

Showdown Slow Down (Jim Kunstler)

The basic Democratic Party election strategy in recent decades has been to turn the voting public into so many millions of proverbial froggies in the pot of water set to slowly rise to boiling so that the froggies don’t notice they’re getting cooked until it’s too late to jump out of the pot. The Democrat’s Lawfare soldiers have slowly and systematically changed the methods of voting and counting the votes, especially to eliminate accountability for the massive scams and screw-ups that have occurred recently. The changes have been accepted as normal. One insidious change was shutting down the small local precinct polling places in churches and schools, where it was easy to get in, get your signature checked, and vote on-site, and where the precinct captains and workers were known and accountable to voters in the neighborhood.

Instead, Lawfare got states to consolidate all the action in huge impersonal voting centers — often sports arenas — where hundreds of election workers churned, and all sorts of frauds went unnoticed in the enormous shuffle of activity. It was also harder to get in and vote at such a giant venue on game day when thousands showed up and long lines formed — which made it easier for interested parties to justify the expansion of mail-in balloting. It’s just possible that Covid-19 was introduced in 2020 to make sure that Election Day in-person voting would look hazardous, with mail-ins becoming the dominant method. It sure helped get rid of Donald Trump.Among the conclusions of the 2005 Commission on Federal Election Reform, co-chaired by (Democratic) former president Carter and (Republican) former Secretary of State James Baker, was that mail-in voting is the easiest way to invite cheating and fraud.

Apparently, no one listened except Lawfare’s Marc Elias, who saw that as a good thing. What we got starting in 2020 and continuing today are the creative refinements of that, as fraudsters apply their zillions of dollars to new ways of stealing elections — as Mark Zuckerberg did in Wisconsin, literally switching out local election officials with Democratic Party activists. Then there are the as-yet-unresolved issues with the Dominion voting machines and their software. Are the machines enabled to hook into the internet? It seems to me that this has been proven. Why is it so hard to admit that these machines are janky and unnecessary? A thousand voices have pointed out that many other nations, France, for instance, use only paper ballots and manage to report the election results the night of.

Arizona is a whole helluva lot smaller than France, and even Florida, which thoroughly reformed its election laws under Governor DeSantis and published the midterm results the same night. Speaking of Mr. DeSantis and Mr. Trump, the ex-President has been verbally laying into the Florida governor so viciously lately that he might have made a fatal error in his quest for electoral redemption. The opponents of Progressive-Woke-Jacobinism don’t need a circus ringmaster. They need a credible leader, especially one that can manage his or her emotions at least as well as Vladimir Putin does.

Read more …

“Anyone who thinks The Fed can ignore 32.6% of spending in the economy has rocks in their head..”

Crrraaaazy Wally -Street, That Is- (Denninger)

We call it…. “crazy Ivan” – Hunt for Red October. Except this is November, and the crazy came out of the CPI report. The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 7.7 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for shelter contributed over half of the monthly all items increase, with the indexes for gasoline and food also increasing. If you were short into this there was no getting away from what went up your backside; a literal 100 handles went into the Spoos within seconds and I’m quite sure if you’d been short you would have been gapped over, so a stop would have gotten you exactly no protection.

The problem in the “better than expected” report is in that bolded line and in fact that’s a high going back all the way through April on a seasonally-adjusted basis. Food away from home also was up at the seasonally-adjusted high, where it has been for the last three months sequentially, so there’s no love there either. Note that the latter is often subject to fairly long supply lines and contracts which delay the impact of movement both ways, and thus that it is lagging is no big shock. Food at bars and restaurants has been up less than food at home over the last 12 months and thus you can expect it to continue hitting the index for quite some time yet. The 900lb Gorilla in the room this month is fuel oil, which is, as many people do not know, #2 diesel.

It was up a stunning 19.8% on the month and stands at 68.5% up from last year this time. Anyone expecting the consumer experience to improve with that record has rocks in their head, never mind those who use it for heating that are about to get a visit from the proctologist this winter. Incidentally if you are one of them and your supplier is screwing you on price go to a truck stop (or any rural fuel place that sells to farmers for off-road use) and bring jerry cans. They sell dyed fuel for use in the refer units. Its the same thing and if its cheaper to buy it there than pay whatever the guy with the truck wants to bring it to the house your decision should be obvious. Piped gas relaxed some, which is good news if you use it, but its still up 20% on the year.

A huge percentage of people use that for heat, so there you go. Oh, and guess what is used to generate electrical power? Uh huh, which is why electricity is up 14.1% on the year. If you remember me talking about “Owner’s Equivalent Rent” and how it falsely stated that there was no inflation while home prices shot the moon you can see the inverse of that right now in the OER number which is up 6.9% on the year. That which held down inflation figures for years is now going to prop them up for years, like it or not. There is no evidence that rents, on the other hand, is relaxing at all. Anyone who thinks The Fed can ignore 32.6% of spending in the economy has rocks in their head; they most-certainly will not, and that’s what shelter comprises. Annualized its up 6.9% so no, we’re not “winning” on inflation.

Read more …

“Global trade is moving backwards this year..”

Ports Clogged With Containers As World Trade Stumbles (ZH)

The latest Bloomberg Trade Tracker reveals an ominous outlook for world trade due to soaring interest rates, the war in Ukraine, a slowdown in the US economy, and zero Covid in China. A shortage of containers has entirely reversed into a glut as crashing shipping rates and canceled sails gain momentum during what is supposed to be the busiest shipping period of the year. “The world’s two biggest economies are feeling glum about the export outlook, with both the US and China gauges in contraction in October and the American one in “below-normal” range on the Tracker,” according to Bloomberg. Earlier this week, we explained that economic storm clouds are gathering worldwide as some of the largest shipping companies warn about decelerating global trade.


US shipper FedEx and Danish shipping giant A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S have been vocal about emerging signs of a global slowdown. “Global trade is moving backwards this year,” Maersk’s chief executive officer Soren Skou told Bloomberg Television at the start of November. FedEx CFO Michael Lenz told an audience Tuesday at the Robert W Baird Global Industrial Conference earlier this week that his company parked planes cut costs in response to weak demand for package delivery. The Covid boom for goods has evaporated. Consumers have switched from buying computers and television to spending whatever money they have left on experiences. We predict in May that an inventory glut, i.e., the reverse bullwhip effect, would cool the booming freight market. It’s now peak shipping season — retailers have already canceled overseas orders as freight companies reduce shipping capacity ahead of Black Friday and Christmas.

Read more …

Yeah, but we’re broke…

Developing Nations Demand Rich Countries Pay For Climate Change (RT)

Leaders from developing countries have accused wealthy nations and the energy industry of triggering climate change and demanded compensation for the damage it has inflicted on their economies. While oil and gas companies are reaping the benefits, small island states are being devastated by ocean storms caused by rising sea levels, they say. Speaking at the COP27 climate summit in Egypt on Tuesday, Antigua and Barbuda Prime Minister Gaston Browne noted that “oil and gas industry continues to earn almost $3 billion daily in profits,” while “the planet is burning.” “It is about time that these companies are made to pay a global carbon tax on their profits as a source of funding for loss and damage,” Browne added.

Poor nations point at the hypocrisy of their wealthier counterparts, which are the most vocal advocates of slashing emissions while themselves being the biggest polluters following a century of fossil fuel-driven industrialization. Developing countries are now asking how they will be compensated for the floods and droughts attributed to climate change. “I’m not here to ask any of you to love the people of my country with the same passion as I do,” said the prime minister of the Bahamas, Philip Davis. “I’m asking what is it worth to you to have millions of climate refugees to turn into tens of millions, putting pressure on political and economic systems around the world.”

Meanwhile, Senegalese President Macky Sall admitted that his country’s economy is unable to shift away from fossil fuels immediately but said that poorer developing countries in Africa needed increased funding from wealthy nations in order to adapt to the worsening climate. “Let’s be clear, we are in favor of reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. But we Africans cannot accept that our vital interests be ignored,” he said.

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Saudi, Iran, now UAE. No many US friends left.

US Intel Report Vilifies Key Ally UAE – WaPo (RT)

The United Arab Emirates, arguably one of Washington’s most trusted Arab allies, has gamed US foreign policy by meddling in the American political system using both legal and illegal tactics, intelligence officials have reportedly claimed in a classified report. The activities in question spanned multiple US administrations and exploited “vulnerabilities” in the American system, including reliance on political contributions and lax enforcement of laws designed to protect against foreign interference, the Washington Post reported on Saturday. Some of the tactics “resemble espionage,” the newspaper added, citing three unidentified sources who have seen the classified report.

The report illustrates how the US political system is being distorted by foreign money, one Washington lawmaker told the Post, arguing that a “very clear red line needs to be established against the UAE playing in American politics. I’m not convinced we’ve ever raised this with the Emiratis at a high level.” Top US policymakers allegedly received briefings on the classified intelligence report in recent weeks. It’s an unusual advisory for US intelligence agencies to issue because it pertains to a close ally – rather than an adversary, such as Russia, China or Iran – and could be interpreted as delving into domestic politics, said Bruce Riedel, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. Yousef Al Otaiba, the UAE’s ambassador to Washington, defended the oil-rich nation’s outsized influence in the US. “It has been hard-earned and well-deserved,” he told the Post.

“It is the product of decades of close UAE-US cooperation and effective diplomacy. It reflects common interests and shared values.” The UAE has spent more than $154 million on lobbyists since 2016, according to US government records, as well as hundreds of millions of dollars that were donated to American colleges and think tanks. Many of those institutions have produced policy papers with recommendations that are favorable to UAE interests. Those investments have apparently been fruitful, as Washington has approved sales of some of the most advanced US-made weaponry, including MQ-9 Predator drones and F-35 fighter jets, to the UAE. No other Arab nation has been afforded such privileges because US leaders have sought to avoid “diminishing Israel’s qualitative military edge” in the Middle East, the Post said.

Bordering Saudi Arabia to the southwest and Oman to the east, oil-rich UAE is a member of OPEC. Around 2,000 US soldiers and airmen are stationed at Abu Dhabi’s al-Dhafra airbase, and both countries supported Saudi Arabia’s war against the Houthis in Yemen, though the Pentagon ceased supporting “offensive” operations there in 2021, and the UAE withdrew its ground troops in early 2020. In early August, Washington authorized a $2.2 billion sale of 96 Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system missiles, to help Abu Dhabi repel possible ballistic missile threats in the region. However, after OPEC+ members announced their decision to cut oil production last month, multiple US lawmakers accused Washington’s allies of “siding with Russia” and proposed withdrawing troops and missile defense systems from both UAE and Saudi Arabia as a punishment.

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“..discarding the works of Mussorgsky or poet and novelist Alexander Pushkin would be like discarding the works of Shakespeare or Dante..”

La Scala Replies To Call To ‘Cancel’ Russian Composers (RT)

Italy’s famed La Scala theater in Milan has insisted that Russian culture should not be “penalized” because of the military operation against Kiev. It defended its decision to include the works of Russian composers in its newest program after a Ukrainian consul called them instruments of Moscow’s propaganda campaign. According to Italian news agency ANSA, Andrey Kartysh, Ukraine’s consul general in Milan, sent a letter to La Scala CEO Dominique Meyer, as well as Milan Mayor Giuseppe Sala and the head of the Lombardy region, Attilio Fontana, asking to “review” its program for the 2022-2023 season in order to avoid “potential elements of propaganda.” The diplomat cited the “great disappointment and regret” of the Ukrainian community in Italy.

“Culture is being used by the Russian Federation to lend weight to its assertions of greatness and power,” he wrote, arguing that “the pandering to its propaganda can only fuel the image of the regime [in Moscow] and, by extension, its evil ambitions and countless crimes.” La Scala plans to kick off its newest season on December 7 with the opera ‘Boris Godunov’ by 19th-century Russian composer Modest Mussorgsky. The opera is about a Russian tsar who ruled during the Time of Trouble, a period of political upheaval and turbulence in early 17th century Russia. The program also includes ‘The Nutcracker’ ballet, whose score was written by Pyotr Tchaikovsky, and a recital by Russian soprano Anna Netrebko. La Scala Music Director Riccardo Chailly defended the decision to show ‘Boris Godunov’ on stage.

“To remove a masterpiece… is to penalize the culture,” he argued, as quoted by the newspaper Corriere della Sera on Saturday. “Art should not pay for the havoc of what has been happening after February 24,” Chailly said, referring to the date that Russia launched its military operation in the neighboring state. He added that discarding the works of Mussorgsky or poet and novelist Alexander Pushkin would be like discarding the works of Shakespeare or Dante. Chailly noted that the opera house expressed support for Ukraine early on in the conflict and raised €380,000 for Ukrainian refugees in April. Stage director Francesco Micheli, who sits on La Scala’s governing board, called the Ukrainian consul general’s request “reckless,” saying that he “ignores that the opera has no connection with the situation” in his home country. “I think La Scala sees the program as a way to show the unifying value of culture. That is why La Scala should be praised,” Italian Under Secretary of State for Culture Vittorio Sgarbi said.

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Google translation.

Looks like the “thrash metal drummer” is being used by much bigger parties. But Musk made a lot of people a lot of money, and “the proposal has been passed by a large majority by Tesla shareholders.”

Still, lawyers are looking at large fees, so they continue.

@JordanSchachtel:”Elon is blowing things up at Twitter because it is necessary to save the company. The old Twitter was a state-sponsored propaganda operation. Twitter as a private company will not have the privilege of unlimited resources.”

Elon Musk In Court Over $56 Billion Tesla Bonus (Telegraaf)

Elon Musk has to defend a billion-dollar bonus in a US court on Monday that was promised to him a few years ago at Tesla. That bonus could be so high that the Tesla CEO could recoup the entire $44 billion he recently invested in the Twitter acquisition. Musk was promised a package of stock options in 2018 if he could achieve certain goals with Tesla. Since then, Tesla’s stock price has increased more than tenfold and the company was briefly worth more than 1000 billion dollars. According to calculations, Musk could make up to $56 billion. The controversial package allows him to buy 1 percent of Tesla’s shares at a big discount every time certain targets are reached. Richard Tornetta, a small Tesla investor, thought the bonus was excessive and filed a lawsuit as early as 2018. At the time, there was immediately a lot of speculation that the Tesla stock price could rise to great heights.


Tornetta, who is also a thrash metal drummer and runs an audio equipment company, also finds it unfair that Musk was awarded the remuneration of a board that would actually be completely under his control. One of the directors involved was Kimbal Musk, the brother of the richest man in the world. Yet the matter is not so simple. Musk’s lawyers have pointed out that the proposal has been passed by a large majority by Tesla shareholders. Because of the bonus, Musk would have been focused on making Tesla better. And this is said to be the reason why the share price has soared, which is in the interest of all shareholders. The case is being heard in the state of Delaware by the same judge who recently dealt with the case between Twitter and Musk to force the latter to go through with its takeover plan.

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Cobalt

 

 

 

 

 

 

Landing
https://twitter.com/i/status/1591166676904865793

 

 

 

 

Support the Automatic Earth in virustime with Paypal, Bitcoin and Patreon.

 

 

 

 

 

Aug 162021
 
 August 16, 2021  Posted by at 9:37 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , ,  93 Responses »


Roy Lichtenstein Hopeless 1963

 

Ultrapotent Antibodies vs Diverse & Highly Transmissible Covid19 Variants (Sc.)
Vaccine Inventor Dr. Robert Malone Ruined “His Chances For A Nobel Prize” (TSU)
Shedding of Infectious SARS-CoV-2 Despite Vaccination with Delta (Mx)
Here Comes Nosocomial DISASTER (Denninger)
A Message From France (TBP)
French Covid Permit Scheme Extended To Paris Department Stores (G.)
UAE Covid-19 Death Toll Exceeds 2,000 For First Time, 1,189 New Cases (AlA)
Biden Offers Cash To Florida Schools That Defy Gov. Ron DeSantis (NYP)
China, the WHO and the Powergrab That Fuelled A Pandemic (Times)
The Clocks Are Wrong or Biden’s Camp David Photo Was Taken Months Ago (GP)
White House Twitter Account Apparently ‘Outs’ Intel Officials, Locations (RT)
CNN Praises Taliban For Wearing Masks During Attack (BBee)

 

 

Biden “may talk in a few days”, Kamala is AWOL, and Jen Psaki is gone until August 22.

What do you think when you’re in Hong Kong, or Taiwan, Ukraine, Lithuania? That America’s got your back?

This damage is forever. The US gave itself all away in 24 hours.

 

 

 

 

10% have had 3rd vaxx. Israeli PM Bennett is a confused man.

 

 

 

 

“Our study demonstrates that convalescent subjects previously infected with ancestral variant SARS-CoV-2 produce antibodies that cross-neutralize emerging VOCs with high potency.”

Ultrapotent Antibodies vs Diverse & Highly Transmissible Covid19 Variants (Sc.)

Our key defense against the COVID-19 pandemic is neutralizing antibodies against the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus elicited by natural infection or vaccination. Recent emerging viral variants have raised concern because of their potential to escape antibody neutralization. Wang et al. identified four antibodies from early-outbreak convalescent donors that are potent against 23 variants, including variants of concern, and characterized their binding to the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2. Yuan et al. examined the impact of emerging mutations in the receptor-binding domain of the spike protein on binding to the host receptor ACE2 and to a range of antibodies. These studies may be helpful for developing more broadly effective vaccines and therapeutic antibodies.

Blood from 22 convalescent subjects who recovered from SARS-CoV-2 WA-1 infection was screened for neutralizing and binding activity, and four subjects with high reactivity against the WA-1 variant were selected for antibody isolation. SARS-CoV-2 spike (S)–reactive antibodies were identified through B cell sorting with S protein–based probes. WA-1 live-virus neutralization assays identified four RBD-targeting antibodies with high potency [half-maximal inhibitory concentration (IC50) 2.1 to 4.8 ng/ml], two of which were derived from the same IGHV1-58 germline but from different donors. Antigen-binding fragments (Fabs) of these antibodies exhibited nanomolar affinity to S (2.3 to 7.3 nM).

Competition assays and electron microscopy indicated that two of the most potent antibodies blocked angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) and bound open conformation RBD, whereas the other two bound both up and down conformations of RBD and blocked ACE2 binding. Binding and lentivirus neutralization assays against 13 circulating VOCs or variants of interest—including B.1.1.7, B.1.351, B.1.427, B.1.429, B.1.526, P.1, P.2, B.1.617.1, and B.1.617.2—indicated that these antibodies were highly potent against VOCs despite being isolated from subjects infected with early ancestral SARS-CoV-2 viruses. Cryo-EM studies of the two most potent antibodies in complex with S revealed that these antibodies target a site of vulnerability on RBD but have minimal contacts with mutational hotspots, defining the structural basis for their high effectiveness against the emerging VOCs and further delineating an IGHV1-58 antibody supersite.

To investigate potential mechanisms of escape, we applied antibody selection pressure to replication-competent vesicular stomatitis virus (rcVSV) expressing the WA-1 SARS-CoV-2 S (rcVSV-SARS2) and identified S mutations that conferred in vitro resistance. We evaluated these antibodies individually or in combinations for their capacity to prevent rcVSV-SARS2 escape and discovered that antibody combinations with complementary modes of recognition to the RBD lowered the risk of resistance. [..] Our study demonstrates that convalescent subjects previously infected with ancestral variant SARS-CoV-2 produce antibodies that cross-neutralize emerging VOCs with high potency. Structural and functional analyses reveal that antibody breadth is mediated by targeting a site of vulnerability at the RBD tip offset from major mutational hotspots in VOCs. Selective boosting of immune responses targeting specific RBD epitopes, such as the sites defined by these antibodies, may induce breadth against current and future VOCs.


Isolation and characterization of convalescent donor antibodies that effectively neutralize emerging SARS-CoV-2 VOCs.

Antibodies isolated from donors infected with ancestral SARS-CoV-2 viruses showed ultrapotent neutralization of emerging VOCs. The two most potent antibodies shared usage of the IGHV1-58 gene and targeted the RBD with minimal contact to VOC mutational hotspots. Cocktails of antibodies with complementary binding modes suppressed antibody escape.

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“This was a conscious decision to take risk.”

Vaccine Inventor Dr. Robert Malone Ruined “His Chances For A Nobel Prize” (TSU)

This afternoon, The Atlantic wrote a fair piece titled, “The Vaccine Scientist Spreading Vaccine Misinformation.” The article started out with the author, Tom Bartlett, asking: “Robert Malone claims to have invented mRNA technology. Why is he trying so hard to undermine its use?” Again, we think the article is fair and objective. Unlike Logically.AI, which categorically said Dr. Malone was not the original inventor of the vaccine, Mr. Bartlett credited Dr. Malone for being the first person to “demonstrate how RNA could be delivered into cells using lipids.” Below is how Mr. Bartlett describes Dr. Malone’s body of work:

“The abridged version is that when Malone was a graduate student in biology in the late 1980s at the Salk Institute for Biological Studies, he injected genetic material—DNA and RNA—into the cells of mice in hopes of creating a new kind of vaccine. He was the first author on a 1989 paper demonstrating how RNA could be delivered into cells using lipids, which are basically tiny globules of fat, and a co-author on a 1990 Science paper showing that if you inject pure RNA or DNA into mouse muscle cells, it can lead to the transcription of new proteins. If the same approach worked for human cells, the latter paper said in its conclusion, this technology “may provide alternative approaches to vaccine development.””

Mr. Bartlett’s piece is not really the purpose of this article. The question is, what did Dr. Malone say or do to jeopardize his chances of winning a Nobel Prize? To answer this question, we need to go back to his TV appearance on June 23. During the interview, Dr. Malone stated that he was not discouraging the use of the vaccine that the government is not being transparent with us about what those risks are. “[O]ne of my concerns are that the government is not being transparent with us about what those risks are. And so, I’m of the opinion that people have the right to decide whether to accept a vaccine or not, especially since these are experimental vaccines,” Dr. Malone said, pointing to the fact the vaccines are not formally approved but instead being administered under Emergency Use Authorization.

Dr. Malone added: “This is a fundamental right having to do with clinical research ethics,” he said. “And so, my concern is that I know that there are risks. But we don’t have access to the data, and the data haven’t been captured rigorously enough so that we can accurately assess those risks — and therefore … we don’t really have the information that we need to make a reasonable decision.” Immediately after the interview, the news about what he said quickly travel across the mainstream media, News York Times, Washington Post, and now, The Atlantic. Since then, Dr. Malone has been under attack. About a month later, Logically.Ai wrote a piece claiming that Dr. Robert Malone did NOT invent mRNA vaccines. Just as Mr. Bartlett said in the Atlantic story, “Whether Malone really came up with mRNA vaccines is a question probably best left to Swedish prize committees, but you could make a case for his involvement.”

Which leads us to Dr. Malone’s chances of getting a Nobel prize. In a tweet this afternoon, Dr. Malone shared a statement from a cellular immunologist Stan Gromkowski who did work on mRNA vaccines in the early 1990s. According to the tweet, Gromkowski said this about Dr. Malone: “He’s fucking up his chances for a Nobel Prize.” In the same tweet, Dr. Malone added that he was well aware of the potential impact on a possible Nobel. “I made a choice,” he wrote. That’s not all. In a follow-up tweet, Dr. Malone said he was “very aware of this risk and discussed it with Bret and Steve right before the infamous Dark Horse podcast, indicating that the stakes were too high to worry about a Prize when trying to save the lives and health of our children. This was a conscious decision to take risk.”

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“68% of individuals infected despite vaccination tested positive with Ct <25, including at least 8 who were asymptomatic at the time of testing.”

Shedding of Infectious SARS-CoV-2 Despite Vaccination with Delta (Mx)

The SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant and its sublineages (B.1.617.2, AY.1, AY.2, AY.3; [1]) can cause high viral loads, are highly transmissible, and contain mutations that confer partial immune escape [2,3]. Using PCR threshold cycle (Ct) data from a single large contract laboratory, we show that individuals in Wisconsin, USA had similar viral loads in nasal swabs, irrespective of vaccine status, during a time of high and increasing prevalence of the Delta variant. Infectious SARS-CoV-2 was isolated from 51 of 55 specimens (93%) with Ct <25 from both vaccinated and unvaccinated persons, indicating that most individuals with Ct values in this range (Wilson 95% CI 83%-97%) shed infectious virus regardless of vaccine status.

Notably, 68% of individuals infected despite vaccination tested positive with Ct <25, including at least 8 who were asymptomatic at the time of testing. Our data substantiate the idea that vaccinated individuals who become infected with the Delta variant may have the potential to transmit SARS-CoV-2 to others. Vaccinated individuals should continue to wear face coverings in indoor and congregate settings, while also being tested for SARS-CoV-2 if they are exposed or experience COVID-like symptoms.

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“Viral loads of breakthrough Delta variant infection cases were 251 times higher than those of cases infected with old strains detected between March-April 2020.”

Here Comes Nosocomial DISASTER (Denninger)

“Methods: We studied breakthrough infections among healthcare workers of a major infectious diseases hospital in Vietnam. We collected demographics, vaccination history and results of PCR diagnosis alongside clinical data. We measured SARS-CoV-2 (neutralizing) antibodies at diagnosis, and at week 1, 2 and 3 after diagnosis. We sequenced the viruses using ARTIC protocol.

Findings: Between 11th–25th June 2021 (week 7–8 after dose 2), 69 healthcare workers were tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. 62 participated in the clinical study. 49 were (pre)symptomatic with one requiring oxygen supplementation. All recovered uneventfully. 23 complete-genome sequences were obtained. They all belonged to the Delta variant, and were phylogenetically distinct from the contemporary Delta variant sequences obtained from community transmission cases, suggestive of ongoing transmission between the workers. Viral loads of breakthrough Delta variant infection cases were 251 times higher than those of cases infected with old strains detected between March-April 2020. Time from diagnosis to PCR negative was 8–33 days (median: 21). Neutralizing antibody levels after vaccination and at diagnosis of the cases were lower than those in the matched uninfected controls. There was no correlation between vaccine-induced neutralizing antibody levels and viral loads or the development of symptoms.”

Reasonable conclusions drawn from this data:
• The vaccines do not prevent health care workers from getting infected; the antibodies are ineffective.
• When health care workers get infected post-vaccination with Delta they are not becoming infected from the community; they are passing it among each other.
• Their viral loads and thus infectiousness are extremely high; in other words they become a reservoir of extreme infection risk to other employees in the facility and, it must be assumed to the patients in their care.
• A reasonable hypothesis (but not proved) is that the vaccines are in fact potentiating viral replication via ADE-type effects, specifically given the paper I pointed to yesterday. That is the act of encouraging or even forcing medical workers to take the jabs is leading to higher viral loads and thus greater infectiousness — that is, greater risk to patients rather than less.

Congratulations folks — you just turned hospitals into death traps for anyone who is medically compromised, particularly if they were either unable to be vaccinated themselves for medical reasons or, far worse, they were vaccinated but due to immune compromise failed to build an effective response. PS: Want to know why this sort of study hasn’t — and won’t — be done here? Because the instantaneous freak-out factor, never mind the nasty words “malpractice” or even “depraved indifference” — would start getting thrown around immediately, that’s why.

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A message of hope. Everything comes to a standstill. Tons of pics of empty cafes and restaurants.

In the US, tens of millions soon’t can’t fly. Will that make the airlines happy?

A Message From France (TBP)

Here in France it has gone to the extreme with the “Health” Pass. Last week on the 21st ALL restaurants, bars, coffee shops, and any leisure activities like sporting events, theaters, cinemas, museums, were closed to anyone without “the pass” and all staff at these places are mandated to get the jab to keep their job. It is now a 6 Month prison sentence if you are caught inside any of these places without the pass (the man who slapped the president in the face got only 3 months prison time). Business owners will get a fine of 45,000 euros and 1 year prison sentence if they do not comply with the use of “the pass” and force all their employees to get the jab. (If you know France, you can commit murder and have less of a sentence)

So the result? All the low paid employees quit, they can make more on welfare here (for now). We can still technically “get take out food” but I just tried last night and every restaurant in our town (that is dine in with take out) has closed their doors due to the lack of staff. As of last week ALL doctors, nurses and health industry workers have been mandated to get the jab or lose their license, practice, job, business etc. (ALL health care here is Govt paid positions and there are no private health care Doctors or Hospitals etc.) Since the Health care system is state run and funded, it has been run into the ground. All the good doctors left France 5 Years ago, all the hospitals look like they are 3rd world hospitals since there is no money to repair them, half of the equipment doesn’t work and not every hospital is stocked with supplies needed for daily needs (masks, gels, disposable gowns etc).

For 5 years Nurses have been understaffed and doing double the work because the Health care system is nearly bankrupt…. So add to this the mandatory jab. So the result? Well they took to the streets by the millions and now all the hospitals just lost another 50% of staff capacity. My doctor just went into early retirement (a.k.a. he quit) and I have yet to find a replacement. As of Aug 1st ALL large malls, retail stores and grocery store owners and their staff need to be jabbed and the health pass is required to enter for employees and customers. This would be the equivalent to closing ALL Targets, Walmarts, Costcos, Home Depots, and all major grocery stores. (basically any building over 20,000 squre meters) to those without “the pass”. Result.?? Aug 15th Truckers will be going on strike nation wide; Blocking all access roads in and out of Paris.

Yesterday an entire airport in Northern France closed due to the majority of staff quitting. As of Sept 15th All public areas and access will be off limits. No farmers markets, no parks, no national parks, lakes, rivers, beaches, recreation areas, campsites etc. and no gathering over 100 people, no churches, no weddings, etc. As of Oct 1st ALL small vendors such as, delis, pizza trucks, sandwich shops, butchers, bakers, vegetable stands etc. So as of Oct 1st I will only be able to purchase food by internet and pick up (if allowed). Food shortages, Truckers strike, hospitals and airports shutting down unemployment going through the roof. Its going to be a bumpy ride folks. Is it me or does all this seem a bit extreme for a “pass” that isn’t exactly working? America, Canada, England, Australia, New Zealand, you’d better wake up.

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Close those too.

French Covid Permit Scheme Extended To Paris Department Stores (G.)

France’s pass sanitaire health permit system will be extended to more than 120 major department stores and shopping centres on Monday in areas where levels of Covid infection are causing concern, including Paris and the Mediterranean coast. The decision to extend the measure restricting entry to customers who can prove they have been vaccinated, have had a negative Covid test or have recovered from coronavirus was made by local officials. The pass will be required for shoppers entering Paris department stores such as Galeries Lafayette, Printemps, BHV, Le Mon Marché and La Samaritaine, and others mainly in the south of the country.


Several large shopping centres around the Channel ports popular with British tourists had feared being included but were given a reprieve as the local Covid infection rates are lower than the national average. Local prefects are imposing the pass on large stores and shopping malls in areas where the infection rate is above 200 per 100,000 people. Although Paris has not reached this level, officials are concerned about the high number of cases especially among young people in the neighbouring areas of Saint-Denis and Val-de-Marne. The worst-hit areas are in departments along the Mediterranean coast. In the Bouches-du-Rhône, which includes the popular holiday areas of Provence, the Côte d’Azur, Marseille, Arles and Aix-en-Provence, the rate has reached 693 per 100,000.s

The French bring their own chairs, table, food. No pass required.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1426810220471361538

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Most vaccinated country on earth. They work great. UAE=9.7 million people.

UAE Covid-19 Death Toll Exceeds 2,000 For First Time, 1,189 New Cases (AlA)

The United Arab Emirates on Sunday recorded 1,189 new coronavirus infections, 1,419 recoveries and four deaths in 24 hours, the country’s National Emergency Crisis and Disasters Management Authority (NCEMA) reported. Health authorities conducted 218,163 COVID-19 tests to determine Sunday’s numbers which indicated another daily decline in infections from Saturday’s 1,206. The UAE’S COVID-19 death toll now sits at 2,001, while total recoveries increased to 679,760, according to NCEMA. The country has recorded a total of 701,776 coronavirus cases since the pandemic’s onset. There are currently 20,015 active cases within the country. As of yet, over 81 percent of the population has received at least one vaccine dose and around 72 percent have been fully inoculated against COVID-19.

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They love hurting DeSantis for 2024.

Biden Offers Cash To Florida Schools That Defy Gov. Ron DeSantis (NYP)

The Biden administration is offering cash to Florida school districts that defy Gov. Ron DeSantis’ mask ban as COVID-19 deaths and hospitalizations rose in the state. Secretary of Education Miguel Cardona on Friday sent a letter to DeSantis and the Florida education commissioner saying school districts can at their “sole and complete discretion” use federal funds to pay the salaries of administrators and board members withheld by the state for defying the order. “We are eager to partner with [the Florida Department of Education] on any efforts to further our shared goals of protecting the health and safety of students and educators,” Cardona wrote. “If FLDOE does not wish to pursue such an approach, the Department will continue to work directly with the school districts and educators that serve Florida’s students.”


A DeSantis spokeswoman blasted the Biden administration for wanting to spend federal funds “on the salaries of superintendents and elected politicians, who don’t believe that parents have a right to choose what’s best for their children, than on Florida’s students, which is what these funds should be used for.” The Republican governor last month signed an executive order banning school districts from making face masks mandatory for students and staff defending “parents’ freedom to choose.” The order came days after the CDC recommended all students and staff wear masks when they return this fall. On Monday, the governor’s office threatened to withhold the salaries of school board members and superintendents who did not comply with the ban. DeSantis has also threatened to withhold state funding from districts as well.

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“Beijing had been instrumental in installing Tedros as the £170,000-a-year head of the agency by pulling strings and calling in favours during the 2017 election for the job.”

China, the WHO and the Powergrab That Fuelled A Pandemic (Times)

Barely eight months after taking charge, the director-general of the WHO gave a speech that would prove extraordinarily prophetic. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warned that all nations were facing the ever-present threat that a new respiratory illness, such as the Spanish flu, might emerge and spread across the globe in weeks or months, killing millions. It was why, the Ethiopian told the audience at his keynote speech in Dubai in February 2018, he had made it his daily priority since becoming the WHO’s chief to make sure he was up to date on the thousands of reports the health body received every month that might flag up signs of an outbreak The WHO, a Geneva-based United Nations agency with a £5 billion budget from 194 member states, was on a war footing.

Tedros said it would act fast and decisively, because ignoring the signs of an outbreak could “be the difference between global spread of a deadly disease and rapid interruption of transmission”. So far this “new tighter focus” was working, he added. So when the first alert of a mysterious respiratory illness in China, exactly as Tedros had described, was reported by health monitors in Taiwan at the end of December 2019, the health agency should have been prepared and ready for action. In fact the WHO would receive considerable criticism for failing to help stop the spread of the Sars-CoV-2 virus in the opening weeks of the Covid-19 pandemic. Not only did the organisation fail to act but it also promulgated misinformation about the virus originating from China and even discouraged other nations from taking steps that might have contained the spread.

For all his foresight, Tedros would be accused of being ineffective when the big test came. The world paid a heavy price for the WHO’s inaction. As Tedros predicted, the virus has killed more than four million people, and there will be many more. The body that is charged with looking after the world’s health seriously malfunctioned in those opening weeks, when humanity most needed it to come to the rescue. Why? Our investigation reveals today how a concerted campaign over many years by Beijing to grab power inside the WHO appears to have fatally compromised its ability to respond to the crisis. It raises serious concerns about the extent of Beijing’s influence over the WHO and its director-general, and how this undermined the organisation’s capacity — and willingness — to take the steps necessary to avert a global pandemic.

Its leadership put China’s economic interests before public health concerns. The results have been nothing short of catastrophic. It is a story that stretches back many years before the Covid-19 crisis. After being strongly criticised by the health agency for attempting to cover up the 2003 Sars crisis, China set out to increase its influence over the WHO. By applying financial and diplomatic leverage over some of the world’s poorest nations, Beijing won a global power struggle to get its favoured candidates installed at the very top of the organisation. As a result, years later, a body that was set up with the lofty goal of “attainment by all peoples of the highest possible level of health” has been co-opted into aiding the Chinese state’s campaign for global economic dominance.

Its leadership began to speak differently, espousing statements and pursuing policies that were markedly convenient to China — even praising Beijing’s questionable allies such as North Korea, despite its appalling health and human rights record. Beijing had been instrumental in installing Tedros as the £170,000-a-year head of the agency by pulling strings and calling in favours during the 2017 election for the job.

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Or months into the future?

The Clocks Are Wrong or Biden’s Camp David Photo Was Taken Months Ago (GP)

Either the clocks in Camp David are wrong or the photo taken of Joe Biden as Kabul fell to the Taliban is several months old. Former Fox News producer Kyle Becker noticed the time errors and pointed them out in a tweet late Sunday evening. “Recent White House photos show a 3-hour time diff. b/w London & Moscow. There are a few good explanations for this. Either Camp David’s clocks are wrong or the photos are from before March 28, when London went ahead on Daylight Savings Time, but Moscow didn’t. This is *fine,*” Becker wrote. “Also, Tehran is an hour and a half difference from Moscow currently, which is why I circled it when I was checking it out. (And yes, that half-hour difference is right; India has a time zone with a half-hour difference as well.)” — Kyle Becker (@kylenabecker) August 16, 2021

“Also, Tehran is an hour and a half difference from Moscow currently, which is why I circled it when I was checking it out. (And yes, that half-hour difference is right; India has a time zone with a half-hour difference as well.)” Becker added. “This morning, the President and Vice President met with their national security team and senior officials to hear updates on the draw down of our civilian personnel in Afghanistan, evacuations of SIV applicants and other Afghan allies, and the ongoing security situation in Kabul. — The White House (@WhiteHouse) August 15, 2021

The photo discrepancy is particularly odd as Biden has been MIA and did not address the nation as the chaos unfolded. Instead, it was reported that he will do so “in the next couple of days.” Additionally, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki will be taking the entire next week off. Questions sent to Psaki are being met with an autoreply saying that she will be out of the office through August 22. “I will be out of the office from August 15th-August 22nd,” the auto reply email being sent to reporters reads.

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What an incredible mess. There should be awards for this.

White House Twitter Account Apparently ‘Outs’ Intel Officials, Locations (RT)

A White House tweet showing President Joe Biden appearing to be on top of the rapidly deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan may also have inadvertently revealed the faces and locations of intelligence agents. The official White House Twitter account posted a photo on Sunday of Biden meeting by video conference with intelligence officials to hear updates on the drawdown of civilian personnel, “the ongoing security situation in Kabul,” and evacuations of Afghan allies, including interpreters who helped US and NATO forces during the 20-year war. The picture showed other meeting participants on a large screen, including CIA officials and three men at the “Doha Station.” Richard Grenell, former acting director of national intelligence in the Trump administration, called out the apparent blunder, tweeting, “Who took this picture outing intel officials? Dear God.”

One Twitter user quipped, “Umm, is the public supposed to see the faces of the CIA agents? Are we supposed to know there is a Doha Station?” The White House tweet may have been meant to portray Biden as actively involved in the evacuation from Afghanistan amid criticism that he was silent and on vacation while the Taliban was recapturing the country and triggering a rushed evacuation of Americans and allied Afghans from Kabul. Supporters of the president used the photo to brush off the criticism, insisting it shows that Biden is preoccupied with the crisis. Some eagle-eyed commentators suggested that the photo might not even be recent, pointing to the time difference between London and Moscow on the clocks in the conference room. The current difference is two hours, while the clocks above the conference screen show a three-hour difference. This would have been possible before March 28, when the clocks in the UK were moved forward by one hour.

The planned US withdrawal from Afghanistan has turned into a disaster for the Biden administration after the Taliban overran 26 provincial capitals out of 34 in the weeks after last US troops left Bagram’s airfield, their main military base in Afghanistan. Biden has faced backlash for apparently gravely underestimating the Taliban and overestimating the ability of the US-trained Afghan forces to withstand the assault. In July, Biden predicted that the Taliban wouldn’t overrun the country and that the evacuation would be nothing like the fall of Saigon in 1975, when US embassy staffers had to be plucked from the rooftop to escape North Vietnamese forces. On Sunday, two CH-47 Chinook helicopters were seen evacuating US embassy staff in Kabul as Taliban fighters entered the city and Afghan President Ashraf Ghani fled the country.

The White House video conference tweet became more fodder for mockery. Biden supporters argued that identities of the people who appeared on the video-conference screen weren’t necessarily secret, but other observers said the existence of the Doha Station was not publicly known. “Heck of a job, White House communications shop,” National Review contributor Jim Geraghty said. “I figure you would want to crop out the teleconference screens labeled CIA and Doha Station – you panicking, amateur idiots.”

Read more …

Not sure we should be laughing.

CNN Praises Taliban For Wearing Masks During Attack (BBee)

Approximately twelve minutes after U.S. troops withdrew from Afghanistan, Taliban fighters have completely taken over the entire country. “Woah, that’s a bummer,” said the Biden Administration’s foreign policy team. “We didn’t see that one coming.” As the Taliban began its campaign of shooting and killing, as is their time-honored tradition, CNN anchors gushed with praise after noticing all the Taliban fighters were responsibly wearing masks to protect themselves and others from COVID. “Wow! In the midst of the battle and bloodshed, these noble desert knights of Islamic superiority are wearing masks! Bravo!” said Brian Stelter.


TV anchor and world-renown polemicist Don Lemon was also quick to weigh in. “All things considered, we ought to be praising the COVID-safe masks these majestic mujahideen warriors are wearing,” he said. “They are showing all of us the proper way to behave during a pandemic—something those horrible idiot Trump supporters don’t seem to get.” Inspired by their example, the Biden Administration has invited the Taliban to the White House to record TikTok videos in hopes of convincing Trump supporters to get vaccinated.

Read more …

 

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Nov 142017
 
 November 14, 2017  Posted by at 10:15 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , ,  11 Responses »


Vincent van Gogh Laboureur dans un champ 1889

 

The Largest Transfer Of Wealth In Living Memory (OD)
How The American Dream Turned Into Greed And Inequality (WEF)
The Fed Destroyed Functioning American Democracy and Bankrupted the Nation (CH)
The Fatal Flaw Of Neoliberalism: It’s Bad Economics (Rodrik)
China Home Sales Fall by Most in Almost Three Years on Curbs (BBG)
Australia’s Whole Economy Is Built On China Buying Our Stuff (News.com.au)
Austerity, Not Brexit, Has Doomed The Tory Party (G.)
Saudi Retreat From U.S. Oil Market Cuts Exports to 30-Year Low (BBG)
Arab States Spent $130 Billion To Destroy Syria, Libya, Yemen (PressTV)
EU Countries Agree To Create A European Mega-Army (R.)
Fisheries Collapse On US West Coast: “It’s The Worst We’ve Seen” (SHTF)

 

 

Or, as yours truly phrased it 2 weeks ago: The Biggest Ponzi in Human History. But the writer makes a big mistake when she says “this will be passed on to the next generation via inheritance or transfer”. It won’t, because prices will plunge. What will be passed on is the debt.

The Largest Transfer Of Wealth In Living Memory (OD)

Last week, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released new data tracking how wealth has evolved over time. On paper, the UK has indeed become much wealthier in recent decades. Net wealth has more than tripled since 1995, increasing by over £7 trillion. This is equivalent to an average increase of nearly £100,000 per person. Impressive stuff. But where has all this wealth come from, and who has it benefitted? Just over £5 trillion, or three quarters of the total increase, is accounted for by increase in the value of dwellings – another name for the UK housing stock. The Office for National Statistics explains that this is “largely due to increases in house prices rather than a change in the volume of dwellings.” This alone is not particularly surprising. We are forever told about the importance of ‘getting a foot on the property ladder’.

The housing market has long been viewed as a perennial source of wealth. But the price of a property is made up of two distinct components: the price of the building itself, and the price of the land that the structure is built upon. This year the ONS has separated out these two components for the first time, and the results are quite astounding. In just two decades the market value of land has quadrupled, increasing recorded wealth by over £4 trillion. The driving force behind rising house prices — and the UK’s growing wealth — has been rapidly escalating land prices. For those who own property, this has provided enormous benefits. According to the Resolution Foundation, homeowners born in the 1940s and 1950s gained an unearned windfall of £80,000 between 1993 and 2014 alone.

In the early 2000s, house price growth was so great that 17% of working-age adults earned more from their house than from their job. Last week The Times reported that during the past three months alone, baby boomers converted £850 million of housing wealth into cash using equity release products – the highest number since records began. A third used the money to buy cars, while more than a quarter used it to fund holidays. Others are choosing to buy more property: the Chartered Institute of Housing has described how the buy-to-let market is being fuelled by older households using their housing wealth to buy more property, renting it out to those who are unable to get a foot on the property ladder. And it is here that we find the dark side of the housing boom.

House prices are now on average nearly eight times that of incomes, more than double the figure of 20 years ago. It’s unlikely that house prices will be able to outpace incomes at the same rate for the next 20 years. The past few decades have spawned a one-off transfer of wealth that is unlikely to be repeated. While the main beneficiaries of this have been the older generations, eventually this will be passed on to the next generation via inheritance or transfer. Already the ‘Bank of Mum and Dad’ has become the ninth biggest mortgage lender. The ultimate result is not just a growing intergenerational divide, but an entrenched class divide between those who own property (or have a claim to it), and those who do not.

Read more …

The dream is dead.

How The American Dream Turned Into Greed And Inequality (WEF)

[..] the idea that every American has an equal opportunity to move up in life is false. Social mobility has declined over the past decades, median wages have stagnated and today’s young generation is the first in modern history expected to be poorer than their parents. The lottery of life – the postcode where you were born – can account for up to two thirds of the wealth an individual generates.The growing gap between the rich and the poor, the old and the young, has been largely ignored by policymakers and investors until the recent rise of anti-establishment votes, including those for Brexit in the UK and for President Trump in the US. This is a mistake. Inequality is much more than a side-effect of free market capitalism.

It is a symptom of policy negligence, where for decades, credit and monetary stimulus shortcuts too easily substituted for structural reform, investment and economic strategy. Capitalism has been incredibly successful at boosting wealth, but it has failed at redistributing it. Today, without a push to redistribute wealth and opportunity, our model of capitalism and democracy may face self-destruction. The widening of inequality has deep historical roots. Keynes’ interventionist policies worked well during the post-war recovery, as fiscal stimulus for the reconstruction boosted demand for US goods from Europe and Japan. But soon the stimulus faded. The U.S. found itself with declining growth and rising inflation at a time when it was mired in the Cold War and Vietnam conflicts. The baby boomer generation demanded higher living standards.

The response was the Nixon shock in 1971: a set of policies which moved away from the gold standard, initiating the era of fiat money and free credit. Credit was the answer to declining growth and rising inequality: if you couldn’t afford university, a new house or a new car, Uncle Sam would lend you the key to the American Dream in the form of that extra loan you needed. Over the following decades, state subsidies to private credit became popular, spreading to the U.K. and Europe. It was the start of debt-based democracies. Private debt outgrew GDP four times in the US and Europe over the following decades up to the 2008 financial crisis, accompanied by the deregulation of financial markets and of banks. The rest is history: nine long years after the crisis, our economies are still healing from excess debt, and regulators are still working on strengthening our financial system. Inequality, however, has deepened even further. Has capitalism failed?

Read more …

Very good from Chris Hamilton.

The Fed Destroyed Functioning American Democracy and Bankrupted the Nation (CH)

Against the adamant wishes of the constitutions framers, in 1913 the Federal Reserve System was Congressionally created. According to the Fed’s website, “it was created to provide the nation with a safer, more flexible, and more stable monetary and financial system.” Although parts of the Federal Reserve System share some characteristics with private-sector entities, the Federal Reserve was supposedly established to serve the public interest. A quick overview; monetary policy is the Federal Reserves actions, as a central bank, to achieve three goals specified by Congress: maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates in the United States. The Federal Reserve conducts the nation’s monetary policy by managing the level of short-term interest rates and influencing the availability and cost of credit in the economy.

Monetary policy directly affects interest rates; it indirectly affects stock prices, wealth, and currency exchange rates. Through these channels, monetary policy influences spending, investment, production, employment, and inflation in the United States. I suggest what truly happened in 1913 was that Congress willingly abdicated a portion of its responsibilities, and through the Federal Reserve, began a process that would undermine the functioning American democracy. How, you ask? The Fed, believing the free-market to be “imperfect” (aka; wrong) believed it should control and set interest rates, determine full employment, determine asset prices; not the “free market”. And here’s what happened:

• From 1913 to 1971, an increase of $400 billion in federal debt cost $35 billion in additional annual interest payments.
• From 1971 to 1981, an increase of $600 billion in federal debt cost $108 billion in additional annual interest payments.
• From 1981 to 1997, an increase of $4.4 trillion cost $224 billion in additional annual interest payments.
• From 1997 to 2017, an increase of $15.2 trillion cost “just” $132 billion in additional annual interest payments.

[..] As the chart below highlights, since the creation of the Federal Reserve the growth of debt (relative to growth of economic activity) has gone to levels never dreamed of by the founding fathers. In particular, the systemic surges in debt since 1981 are unlike anything ever seen prior in American history. Although the peak of debt to GDP seen in WWII may have been higher (changes in GDP calculations mean current GDP levels are likely significantly overstating economic activity), the duration and reliance upon debt was entirely tied to the war. Upon the end of the war, the economy did not rely on debt for further growth and total debt fell.

Read more …

Perhaps the biggest mystery is why the (formerly) left got so involved with it.

The Fatal Flaw Of Neoliberalism: It’s Bad Economics (Rodrik)

We live in the age of neoliberalism, apparently. But who are neoliberalism’s adherents and disseminators – the neoliberals themselves? Oddly, you have to go back a long time to find anyone explicitly embracing neoliberalism. In 1982, Charles Peters, the longtime editor of the political magazine Washington Monthly, published an essay titled A Neo-Liberal’s Manifesto. It makes for interesting reading 35 years later, since the neoliberalism it describes bears little resemblance to today’s target of derision. The politicians Peters names as exemplifying the movement are not the likes of Thatcher and Reagan, but rather liberals – in the US sense of the word – who have become disillusioned with unions and big government and dropped their prejudices against markets and the military.

The use of the term “neoliberal” exploded in the 1990s, when it became closely associated with two developments, neither of which Peters’s article had mentioned. One of these was financial deregulation, which would culminate in the 2008 financial crash and in the still-lingering euro debacle. The second was economic globalisation, which accelerated thanks to free flows of finance and to a new, more ambitious type of trade agreement. Financialisation and globalisation have become the most overt manifestations of neoliberalism in today’s world.

That neoliberalism is a slippery, shifting concept, with no explicit lobby of defenders, does not mean that it is irrelevant or unreal. Who can deny that the world has experienced a decisive shift toward markets from the 1980s on? Or that centre-left politicians – Democrats in the US, socialists and social democrats in Europe – enthusiastically adopted some of the central creeds of Thatcherism and Reaganism, such as deregulation, privatisation, financial liberalisation and individual enterprise? Much of our contemporary policy discussion remains infused with principles supposedly grounded in the concept of homo economicus, the perfectly rational human being, found in many economic theories, who always pursues his own self-interest.

Read more …

Wonder what Xi is thinking.

China Home Sales Fall by Most in Almost Three Years on Curbs (BBG)

China’s new home sales fell by the most in almost three years last month, adding to signs of cooling as local governments keep rolling out curbs to limit price increases. Sales by value dropped 3.4% from a year earlier to 909 billion yuan ($137 billion), according to Bloomberg calculations based on data released Tuesday by the National Bureau of Statistics. That was the biggest year-on-year decline since November 2014. Signs of a property slowdown, including price rises in fewer cities in September, may concern policy makers who want to avoid any sharp economic deceleration. The government is grappling with fueling growth while containing runaway home prices.

President Xi Jinping last month renewed a yearlong call that homes are built “to be inhabited’’ and not for speculation, in his speech at the twice-a-decade Communist Party Congress, inking the language in one of the nation’s top policy frameworks. Investment in real estate development slowed, growing 5.6% last month from a year earlier, down from a 9.2% increase in September, according to Bloomberg calculations. A Bloomberg Intelligence index of Chinese real-estate owners and developers slipped 0.3%. It’s up 89% this year. The data came amid signs of the government easing financing for property developers and as economic releases for October pointed to a moderating economy.

Read more …

Excellent takedown of Australia’s dying economic model.

Australia’s Whole Economy Is Built On China Buying Our Stuff

Australia’s Whole Economy Is Built On China Buying Our Stuff (News.com.au)

I recently watched the federal Treasurer Scott Morrison proudly proclaim that Australia was in “surprisingly good shape”. Indeed, Australia has just snatched the world record from the Netherlands, achieving its 104th quarter of growth without a recession, making this achievement the longest streak for any OECD country since 1970. I was pretty shocked at the complacency, because after 26 years of economic expansion, the country has very little to show for it. For over a quarter of a century our economy mostly grew because of dumb luck. Luck because our country is relatively large and abundant in natural resources, resources that have been in huge demand from a close neighbour — China. Out of all OECD nations, Australia is the most dependent on China by a huge margin, according to the IMF.

Over one-third of all merchandise exports from this country go to China including all physical products and things we dig out of the ground. Outside of the OECD, Australia ranks just after the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Gambia and the Lao People’s Democratic Republic and just before the Central African Republic, Iran and Liberia. Does anything sound a bit funny about that? As a whole, the Australian economy has grown through a property bubble inflating on top of a mining bubble, built on top of a commodities bubble, driven by a China bubble. Unfortunately for Australia, that “lucky” free ride is just about to end. Societe Generale’s China economist Wei Yao recently said: “Chinese banks are looking down the barrel of a staggering $1.7 trillion worth of losses”. Hayman Capital’s Kyle Bass calls China a “$34 trillion experiment” which is “exploding”, where Chinese bank losses “could exceed 400% of the US banking losses incurred during the subprime crisis”.

A hard landing for China is a catastrophic landing for Australia, with horrific consequences to this country’s delusions of economic grandeur. The initial rally in commodities at the beginning of 2016 was caused by a bet that more economic stimulus and industrial reform in China would lead to a spike in demand for commodities used in construction. That bet rapidly turned into full-blown mania as Chinese investors, starved of opportunity and restricted by government clamp downs in equities, piled into commodities markets. This saw, in April of 2016, enough cotton trading in a single day to make a pair of jeans for everyone on the planet, and enough soybeans for 56 billion servings of tofu. Market turnover on the three Chinese exchanges jumped from a daily average of about $78 billion in February to a peak of $261 billion on April 22, 2016 — exceeding the GDP of Ireland.

Read more …

It’s the people.

Austerity, Not Brexit, Has Doomed The Tory Party (G.)

What is destroying the Conservatives is not outside forces, nor the cack-handed pricking of a gusher of ministerial ineptitude. No, the fundamental cause is their own economic strategy of austerity. Of cutting taxes for the wealthy, while cutting public services and social security for the rest. Of rewarding the owners of capital, while punishing those who rely on their labour. Of claiming to have fixed the economy, while tanking voters’ living standards. Austerity is now the thudding drumbeat behind every ministerial misstep, from a family holiday with the Netanyahus to a fauxpology over Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe. It is what unites these individual Westminster outrages into an outline of a ruling party no longer fit for office. By forcing an arbitrary limit on already severely constrained Whitehall and town hall budgets, it renders meaningful government close to impossible.

This is what makes next week’s autumn budget from Philip Hammond so crucial. If the Tories wish to regain any credibility, they will have to ditch the very strategy that defines them. In the days immediately following this summer’s general election, I asked a number of leading figures in Labour how they managed to pull off one of the biggest surprises in postwar political history and rob May of her majority. Their answers all circled back to one thing: austerity fatigue. After seven straight years of seeing their kids’ school classes get bigger and their parents’ hospital waits grow longer, voters were ready for an anti-austerity party leader such as Jeremy Corbyn. Austerity has done more than tear up the public realm; it has imposed private misery on millions of households.

The age of austerity has been the era of the foodbank, the zero-hours contract, the privately rented slum. Unless there is a miracle, the economists at the Resolution Foundation project that the 2010s will be the worst decade for wage growth since the Napoleonic wars of the early 1800s.

Read more …

But but.. the petrodollar!

Saudi Retreat From U.S. Oil Market Cuts Exports to 30-Year Low (BBG)

For a generation, the huge, whitewashed storage tanks at America’s largest oil refinery in Port Arthur, Texas, have stored almost nothing but Saudi crude. The plant is owned the Saudi Arabia’s state-run oil company, Aramco, and since it first bought a stake in 1988, the Motiva refinery guaranteed the kingdom a strategic foothold in the world’s largest energy market. The tankers carrying millions of barrels a month of Arab Light crude from the Saudi export terminals to Port Arthur were testament to the strength of the energy and political ties binding Riyadh and Washington. All of a sudden, there are very few Saudi ships arriving in Texas. Since July, Aramco has constricted supply, attempting to drain the crude storage tanks at Motiva – and many others across America -part of a plan to lift oil prices, even at the cost of sacrificing its once prized U.S.

While Motiva is most affected, the rest of the U.S. oil refining system, from El Segundo in California to Lake Lake Charles in Louisiana, has also taken a hit. The result: Saudi crude exports into America fell to a 30-year low last month. “The drop is huge,” said Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at consultant Energy Aspects Ltd. in London. “It’s not just that Saudi exports are low, but they have been low for several months.” At a stroke, the freedom from Saudi oil that’s been a rhetorical aspiration for generations of American politicians, from Jimmy Carter to George W. Bush, is within reach – even if it’s largely the choice of supplier rather than the customer. The U.S. imported just 525,000 barrels a day of Saudi crude in October, the lowest since May 1987 and down from 1.5 million barrels a day a decade ago, according to Bloomberg News calculations based on custom data.

The combination of falling Saudi oil exports into the U.S. last year, cheap crude and higher exports of American weapons had already turned upside-down the trade relationship between the two countries. Last year, the U.S. enjoyed its first trade surplus with Saudi Arabia since 1998 — only the third in 30 years, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The sharper cuts in oil exports since the summer will likely amplify that trend.

Read more …

“..the United Arab Emirates had planned a military invasion of Qatar with thousands of US-trained mercenaries [..] but it was never carried out as Washington did not give the green light to it..”

Arab States Spent $130 Billion To Destroy Syria, Libya, Yemen (PressTV)

Algerian Prime Minister Ahmed Ouyahia says some regional Arab states have spent $130 billion to obliterate Syria, Libya and Yemen. Ouyahia made the remarks on Saturday at a time when much of the Middle East and North Africa is in turmoil, grappling with different crises, ranging from terrorism and insecurity to political uncertainty and foreign interference. Algeria maintains that regional states should settle their differences through dialog and that foreign meddling is to their detriment. Syria has been gripped by foreign-sponsored militancy since 2011. Takfirism, which is a trademark of many terrorist groups operating in Syria, is largely influenced by Wahhabism, the radical ideology dominating Saudi Arabia.

Libya has further been struggling with violence and political uncertainty since the country’s former ruler Muammar Gaddafi was deposed in 2011 and later killed in the wake of a US-led NATO military intervention. Daesh has been taking advantage of the chaos in Libya to increase its presence there. Yemen has also witnessed a deadly Saudi war since March 2015 which has led to a humanitarian crisis. Last Month, Qatar’s former deputy prime minister Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah said the United Arab Emirates had planned a military invasion of Qatar with thousands of US-trained mercenaries. The UAE plan for the military action was prepared before the ongoing Qatar rift, but it was never carried out as Washington did not give the green light to it, he noted. In late April, reports said the UAE was quietly expanding its military presence into Africa and the Middle East, namely in Eritrea and Yemen.

Read more …

As I wrote yesterday, insanity.

EU Countries Agree To Create A European Mega-Army (R.)

France and Germany edged toward achieving a 70-year-old ambition to integrate European defenses on Monday, signing a pact with 21 other EU governments to fund, develop and deploy armed forces after Britain’s decision to quit the bloc. First proposed in the 1950s and long resisted by Britain, European defense planning, operations and weapons development now stands its best chance in years as London steps aside and the United States pushes Europe to pay more for its security. Foreign and defense ministers gathered at a signing ceremony in Brussels to represent 23 EU governments joining the pact, paving the way for EU leaders to sign it in December. Those governments will for the first time legally bind themselves into joint projects as well as pledging to increase defense spending and contribute to rapid deployments.

“Today we are taking a historic step,” Germany’s Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel told reporters. “We are agreeing on the future cooperation on security and defense issues … it’s really a milestone in European development,” he said. The pact includes all EU governments except Britain, which is leaving the bloc, Denmark, which has opted out of defense matters, Ireland, Portugal and Malta. Traditionally neutral Austria was a late addition to the pact. Paris originally wanted a vanguard of EU countries to bring money and assets to French-led military missions and projects, while Berlin has sought to be more inclusive, which could reduce effectiveness. Its backers say that if successful, the formal club of 23 members will give the European Union a more coherent role in tackling international crises and end the kind of shortcomings seen in Libya in 2011, when European allies relied on the United States for air power and munitions.

Read more …

There are a few things we need to stop doing, urgently.

Fisheries Collapse On US West Coast: “It’s The Worst We’ve Seen” (SHTF)

The Gulf of Alaska cod populations appears to have taken a nose-dive. Scientists are shocked at the collapse and starving fish, making this the “worst they’ve ever seen.” “They [Alaskan cod] get weak and die or get eaten by something else,” said NOAA’s Steve Barbeaux. The 2017 trawl net survey found the lowest numbers of cod on record forcing scientists to try to unravel what happened. A lot of the cod hatched in 2012 appeared to survive, but by 2017, those fish were largely gone for the surveys, which also found scant evidence of fish born in subsequent years. Many of the cod that have come on board trawlers are “long skinny fish” according to Brent Paine, executive director of United Catcher Boats. “This is a big deal,” Paine said. “We just don’t see these (cod) year classes disappear from one year to the next.”

The decline is expected to substantially reduce the gulf cod harvests that in recent years have been worth — before processing — more than $50 million to Northwest and Alaska fishermen who catch them with nets, pot traps, and baited hooks set along the sea bottom. Barbeaux says the warm water, which has spread to depths of more than 1,000 feet, hit the cod like a kind of a double-whammy. Higher temperatures sped up the rate at which young cod burned calories while reducing the food available for the cod to consume. And many are blaming “climate change” for the effects on the fish, although scientists aren’t directly correlating the two events. “They get weak and die or get eaten by something else,” said Barbeaux, who in October presented preliminary survey findings to scientists and industry officials at an Anchorage meeting of the North Pacific Fishery Management Council.

Read more …

Nov 082017
 
 November 8, 2017  Posted by at 1:47 pm Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , , ,  12 Responses »


Salvador Dalí The oecumenial council 1960

 

Trying to figure out what on earth is happening in the Middle East appears to have gotten a lot harder. Perhaps (because) it’s become more dangerous too. There are so many players, and connections between players, involved now that even making one of those schematic representations would never get it right. Too many unknown unknowns.

A short and incomplete list of the actors: Sunni, Shiite, Saudi Arabia, US, Russia, Turkey, ISIS, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Kurds, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Hamas, Qatar, Israel, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Houthis, perhaps even Chechnya, Afghanistan, Pakistan. I know I know, add your favorites. So what have we got, or what do we know we’ve got? We seem to have the US lining up with Israel, the UAE and Saudi Arabia against Russia, Iran, Syria, Hezbollah. Broadly. But that’s just a -pun intended- crude start.

Putin has been getting closer to the Saudis because of the OPEC production cuts, trying to jack up the price of oil. Which ironically has now been achieved on the heels of the arrests of 11 princes and scores of other wealthy and powerful in the kingdom. But Putin also recently signed a $30 billion oil -infrastructure- deal with Iran. And he’s been cuddling up to Israel as well.

In fact, Putin may well be the most powerful force in the Middle East today. Well played?! He prevented the demise of Assad in Syria, which however you look at it at least saved the country from becoming another Iraq and Libya style failed state. If there’s one thing you can say about the Middle East/North Africa it’s that the US succeeded in creating chaos there to such an extent that it has zero control left over any of it. Well played?!

 

One thing seems obvious: the House of Saud needs money. The cash flowing out to the princes is simply not available anymore. The oil price is a major factor in that. Miraculously, the weekend crackdown on dozens of princes et al, managed to do what all the OPEC meetings could not for the price of oil: push it up. But the shrinkage of foreign reserves shows a long term problem, not some momentary blip:

 

 

Another sign that money has become a real problem in Riyadh is the ever-postponed IPO of Saudi Aramco, the flagship oil company supposedly worth $2 trillion. Trump this week called on the Saudi’s to list it in New York, but despite the upsurge in oil prices you still have to wonder which part of that $2 trillion is real, and which is just fantasy.

But yeah, I know, there’s a million different stocks you can ask the same question about. Then again, seeing the wealth of some of the kingdom’s richest parties confiscated overnight can’t be a buy buy buy signal, can it? Looks like the IPO delay tells us something.

And then you have the 15,000 princes and princesses who all live off of the Kingdom’s supposed riches (‘only 2,000’ profit directly). All of them live in -relative- wealth. Some more than others, but there’s no hunger in the royal family. Thing is, overall population growth outdoes even that in the royal family. Which means, since the country produces nothing except for oil, that there are 1000s upon 1000s of young people with nothing to do but spend money that’s no longer there. Cue mayhem.

 

 

And things are not getting better, Saudi Arabia loses money on every barrel it produces. There are stories about them lowering their break-even price, but let’s take that with a few spoonfuls of salt. A 25% drop in break-even prices in just one year sounds a bit too good. Moreover, main competitors like Iran would still have a much lower break-even price. So even if prices would rise further, the Saudi’s might only break even while Iran gets much richer. Running vs standing still.

 

Saudi Arabia Leads Gulf Nations in Cutting Break-Even Oil Price

Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s biggest oil producer, is also a leader when it comes to slashing the crude price the country needs to balance its budget. The kingdom will need oil to trade at $70 a barrel next year to break even, the IMF said Tuesday in its Regional Economic Outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia. That’s down from a break-even of $96.60 a barrel in 2016, the biggest drop of eight crude producers in the Persian Gulf. The break-even is a measure of the crude price needed to meet spending plans and balance the budget.

 

 

Gulf oil producers are cutting spending and eliminating subsidies after crude plunged from more than $100 a barrel in 2014 to average just over half that this year. The need to curb spending is more urgent with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries cutting output to reduce a global glut. Oil will trade at $50 to $60 a barrel for the “medium term,” the IMF said.

 

 

So a thorough cleansing job of the royal family is perhaps inevitable, albeit very risky. King Salman and crown prince Mohammed bin Salman are up against a very large group of rich people. But there’s no way back now.

 

Saudi Banks Freeze More Than 1,200 Bank Accounts in Anti-Corruption Purge

Saudi Arabian banks have frozen more than 1,200 accounts belonging to individuals and companies in the kingdom as part of the government’s anti-corruption purge, bankers and lawyers said on Tuesday. They added that the number is continuing to rise. Dozens of royal family members, officials and business executives have been detained in the crackdown and are facing allegations of money laundering, bribery, extorting officials and taking advantage of public office for personal gain. Since Sunday, the central bank has been expanding the list of accounts it is requiring lenders to freeze on an almost hourly basis…

Much more will have to follow that. Doing a half way job is far too risky once the job has started. Not even $800 billion sounds like all that much. Separate families and factions within the royal family have had decades to accumulate wealth.

 

Saudi Crackdown Targets Up to $800 Billion in Assets

The Saudi government is aiming to confiscate cash and other assets worth as much as $800 billion in its broadening crackdown on alleged corruption among the kingdom’s elite, according to people familiar with the matter. Several prominent businessmen are among those who have been arrested in the days since Saudi authorities launched the crackdown on Saturday, by detaining more than 60 princes, officials and other prominent Saudis, according to those people and others. The country’s central bank, the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority, said late Tuesday that it has frozen the bank accounts of “persons of interest” and said the move is “in response to the Attorney General’s request pending the legal cases against them.”

The most visible – and perhaps richest- of all those arrested -in western eyes- is Al-Waleed. The Bloomberg estimate of his wealth that came out this week is $19 billion. But their own article seems to indicate a much higher number. He owns 5% of Apple -says Bloomberg-, and that share alone would be worth $45 billion.

 

Alwaleed, Caught in Saudi Purge, Has Assets Across the World

Apple – Alwaleed bought 6.23 million shares, or 5 percent, of the computer and mobile-device maker for $115.4 million in 1997. He made these purchases between mid-March and April of that year while the company was still struggling to turn itself around. He has since continued to hold the stake while Apple’s valuation has soared to as high as $900 billion.

 

Going through all these numbers, you can imagine why the ruling family, or rather the rulers within that family, are getting nervous. And that’s where we get to an interesting piece by Ryan Grim at the Intercept, who says it’s not even 32-year-old crown prince Mohammed bin Salman, known as MBS, or King Salman, 81, who control the kingdom these days, it’s the United Arab Emirates (UAE) -and maybe Washington-.

The coup has already been perpetrated.

 

Saudi Arabia’s Government Purge – And How Washington Corruption Enabled It

The move marks a moment of reckoning for Washington’s foreign policy establishment, which struck a bargain of sorts with Mohammed bin Salman, known as MBS, and Yousef Al Otaiba, the United Arab Emirates ambassador to the U.S. who has been MBS’s leading advocate in Washington. The unspoken arrangement was clear: The UAE and Saudi Arabia would pump millions into Washington’s political ecosystem while mouthing a belief in “reform,” and Washington would pretend to believe that they meant it.

MBS has won praise for some policies, like an openness to reconsidering Saudi Arabia’s ban on women drivers. Meanwhile, however, the 32-year-old MBS has been pursuing a dangerously impulsive and aggressive regional policy, which has included a heightening of tensions with Iran, a catastrophic war on Yemen, and a blockade of ostensible ally Qatar. Those regional policies have been disasters for the millions who have suffered the consequences, including the starving people of Yemen, as well as for Saudi Arabia, but MBS has dug in harder and harder. And his supporters in Washington have not blinked.

The platitudes about reform were also challenged by recent mass arrests of religious figures and repression of anything that has remotely approached less than full support of MBS. The latest purge comes just days after White House adviser Jared Kushner, a close ally of Otaiba, visited Riyadh, and just hours after a bizarre-even-for-Trump tweet. Whatever legitimate debate there was about MBS ended Saturday — his drive to consolidate power is now too obvious to ignore. And that puts denizens of Washington’s think tank world in a difficult spot, as they have come to rely heavily on the Saudi and UAE end of the bargain.

As The Intercept reported earlier, one think tank alone, the Middle East Institute, got a massive $20 million commitment from the UAE. And make no mistake, MBS is a project of the UAE — an odd turn of events given the relative sizes of the two countries. “Our relationship with them is based on strategic depth, shared interests, and most importantly the hope that we could influence them. Not the other way around,” Otaiba has said privately.

The kingdom’s broke. Not today, or tomorrow morning, but crown prince MBS is able to look at the numbers and go: Oh Shit! And if he doesn’t see it, he has Kushner (re: Israel) and Al-Otaiba to fill him in. All three relative youngsters -MBS is 32, Kushner is 36, Otaiba is 43- are exceedingly nervous by now.

And then you get war, or the threat of war. War in Yemen, a blockade of Qatar, and now ‘mingling’ in Lebanon with the somewhat mysterious removal of billionaire PM Hariri -allegedly on an Iran/Hezbollah assassination plot-, and outright threats against Iran and Hezbollah:

 

Lebanon’s Hariri Visits UAE As Home Crisis Escalates

Lebanon’s outgoing prime minister, Saad al-Hariri, made a brief visit to the United Arab Emirates from Saudi Arabia on Tuesday despite a deepening crisis back home and a rise in regional tensions triggered by his surprise resignation. Hariri announced his resignation on Saturday during a visit to his ally Saudi Arabia and has not yet returned to Lebanon. He said he believed there was an assassination plot against him and accused Iran, Saudi Arabia’s arch-rival, and its Lebanese ally Hezbollah of sowing strife in the Arab world.

His resignation has thrust Lebanon back into the frontline of the regional rivalry that pits a mostly Sunni bloc led by Saudi Arabia and allied Gulf monarchies against Shi‘ite Iran and its allies. Hariri’s office said he had flown to Abu Dhabi on Tuesday and then returned to Riyadh, but it gave no reason for the trip. It also did not say when he would return home. Hariri’s Future TV channel said he would also visit Bahrain but gave no reason.

In short: billionaire PM Hariri is a puppet. Just perhaps not of Saudi Arabia, but of Abu Dhabi. Whether he’s under house arrest in Riyadh, as has been suggested, is still unclear. But it’s a safe bet that he didn’t fly to Abu Dhabi -and back- alone, or of his own accord. He went to receive instructions.

 

Saudi Arabia Accuses Iran Of ‘Direct Military Aggression’ Over Yemen Missile

Saudi Arabia’s crown prince has accused Iran of “direct military aggression” by supplying missiles to Houthi rebels in Yemen, raising the stakes in an already tense standoff between the two regional rivals. Mohammed bin Salman linked Tehran to the launch of a ballistic missile fired from Yemen towards the international airport in the Saudi capital of Riyadh on Saturday. The missile was intercepted and destroyed.

“The involvement of the Iranian regime in supplying its Houthi militias with missiles is considered a direct military aggression by the Iranian regime,” the prince said on Tuesday during a phone conversation with the UK foreign secretary, Boris Johnson, according to the state-run Saudi Press Agency. He added that the move “may be considered an act of war against the kingdom”. Iran has called Riyadh’s accusations as baseless and provocative.

We have way of knowing what is true or not about this. We do know that Saudi Arabia have been executing a barbaric war in Yemen. With weapons from the US, UK, et al. So someone firing back wouldn’t be that far-fetched.

 

Regardless, Pepe Escobar, a journalist who knows much more than his peers, or at least doesn’t hold back as much as them, doesn’t see this end well for MBS, UAE, Israel, US, and whoever else is in their corner. Another losing war for the US in the Middle East? We’re losing count.

 

The Inside Story Of The Saudi Night Of Long Knives

A top Middle East business/investment source who has been doing deals for decades with the opaque House of Saud offers much-needed perspective: “This is more serious than it appears. The arrest of the two sons of previous King Abdullah, Princes Miteb and Turki, was a fatal mistake. This now endangers the King himself. It was only the regard for the King that protected MBS. There are many left in the army against MBS and they are enraged at the arrest of their commanders.” To say the Saudi Arabian Army is in uproar is an understatement. “He’d have to arrest the whole army before he could feel secure.”

[..] The story starts with secret deliberations in 2014 about a possible “removal” of then King Abdullah. But “the dissolution of the royal family would lead to the breaking apart of tribal loyalties and the country splitting into three parts. It would be more difficult to secure the oil, and the broken institutions whatever they were should be maintained to avoid chaos.” Instead, a decision was reached to get rid of Prince Bandar bin Sultan – then actively coddling Salafi-jihadis in Syria – and replace the control of the security apparatus with Mohammed bin Nayef. The succession of Abdullah proceeded smoothly.

Power was shared between three main clans: King Salman (and his beloved son Prince Mohammed); the son of Prince Nayef (the other Prince Mohammed), and finally the son of the dead king (Prince Miteb, commander of the National Guard). In practice, Salman let MBS run the show. And, in practice, blunders also followed. The House of Saud lost its lethal regime-change drive in Syria and is bogged down in an unwinnable war on Yemen, which on top of it prevents MBS from exploiting the Empty Quarter – the desert straddling both nations. The Saudi Treasury was forced to borrow on the international markets. Austerity ruled …

[..] aversion to MBS never ceased to grow; “There are three major royal family groups aligning against the present rulers: the family of former King Abdullah, the family of former King Fahd, and the family of former Crown Prince Nayef.” Nayef – who replaced Bandar – is close to Washington and extremely popular in Langley due to his counter-terrorism activities. His arrest earlier this year angered the CIA and quite a few factions of the House of Saud – as it was interpreted as MBS forcing his hand in the power struggle. According to the source, “he might have gotten away with the arrest of CIA favorite Mohammed bin Nayef if he smoothed it over but MBS has now crossed the Rubicon though he is no Caesar. The CIA regards him as totally worthless.”

[..] The source, though, is adamant; “There will be regime change in the near future, and the only reason that it has not happened already is because the old King is liked among his family. It is possible that there may be a struggle emanating from the military as during the days of King Farouk, and we may have a ruler arise that is not friendly to the United States.”

In the end, it all comes down to a familiar theme: follow the money. And we need to seriously question the economic reality of Saudi Arabia. That graph above of their foreign reserves looks downright grim.

With money comes power. Who loses money loses power. Saudi Arabia is bleeding money. The population surge is uncanny, and there are no jobs for all these young people. Perhaps the best they can do is be a US/Israel puppet in an attempt to ‘redo’ the map of the Middle East, but that has not been a very successful project off late -like the past 100 years-.

Then again, when you’re desperate you do desperate things. And when you’re a 32-year-old crown prince with more enemies than you can keep track of, you use what money is left to 1) keep up appearances, 2) steal what others have gathered, 3) buy weapons up the wazoo, and 4) go to war.

It all paints a very dark picture for the world. Russia won’t stand for attacks on Iran. And Iran won’t let attacks on Lebanon/Hezbollah go unanswered. All that is set to push up oil prices further, and all parties involved are just fine with that. Because they can buy more weapons with the additional profits.

I’ll leave you with Nassim Taleb’s comments on the situation. After all, Nassim’s from Lebanon, and knows that part of the world like the back of his hand:

 

 

 

Jun 232017
 
 June 23, 2017  Posted by at 9:55 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , , , ,  3 Responses »


Fred Lyon Embarcadero lunch San Francisco 1948

 

Americans Are Dying With An Average Of $61,500 In Debt (ZH)
34 Biggest Banks in US Clear First Hurdle In Fed’s Annual Stress Tests (R.)
Credit-Card Debt Slaves Move to Top of Fed’s Bank Worries (WS)
Citizens Will Soon Turn Their Rage Towards Central Bankers (Albert Edwards)
UK Homelessness Surges 34% Under Tories Since 2010 (Ind.)
UK High Court Judges Tory Policy Causes ‘Real Misery For No Purpose’ (Ind.) /span>
Buy-to-Let Uk Property Sales Fall By Almost 50% In A Year (G.)
Canada’s Private Sector Debt Growing Faster Than Any Advanced Economy (PA)
Warren Buffett Becomes Lender Of Last Resort For Canada’s Home Capital (BBG)
EU Political Class Rides Roughshod over Citizens’ Concerns & Frustrations (DQ)
Dear Oliver: About Those Putin Interviews (RM)
Arab States Send Qatar 13 Demands To End Crisis (R.)
In Yemen’s Secret Prisons, UAE Tortures and US Interrogates

 

 

Double or nothing?!

Americans Are Dying With An Average Of $61,500 In Debt (ZH)

According to a recent study, the average total household debt in America is just over $132,500, broken down as per the chart below… and thanks to the Fed’s recent and ongoing rate increases, the repayment of said debt will become increasingly more difficult. So difficult, in fact, that most Americans will be saddled with a sizable chunk of it at the time of their death. Actually, most already are. According to December 2016 data from credit bureau Experian provided to credit.com, 73% of American consumers had outstanding debt when they were reported as dead. Those consumers carried an average total balance of $61,554, including mortgage debt. Without home loans, the average balance was $12,875. As credit.com reports, the data is based on Experian’s FileOne database, which includes 220 million consumers.

To determine the average debt people have when they die, Experian looked at consumers who, as of October 2016, were not deceased, but then showed as deceased as of December 2016. Among the 73% of consumers who had debt when they died, about 68% had credit card balances. The next most common kind of debt was mortgage debt (37%), followed by auto loans (25%), personal loans (12%) and student loans (6%). The breakdown of unpaid balances was as follows: credit cards, $4,531; auto loans, $17,111; personal loans, $14,793; and student loans, $25,391. And, as a reminder, debt doesn’t just disappear when someone dies.

What happens to that debt when you die, aside from it continuing to accrue interest until someone remembers to inform the creditors? “Debt belongs to the deceased person or that person’s estate,” said Darra L. Rayndon, an estate planning attorney with Clark Hill in Scottsdale, Arizona. If someone has enough assets to cover their debts, the creditors get paid, and beneficiaries receive whatever remains. But if there aren’t enough assets to satisfy debts, creditors lose out (they may get some, but not all, of what they’re owed). Family members do not then become responsible for the debt, as some people worry they might. That’s the general idea, but things are not always that straightforward. The type of debt you have, where you live and the value of your estate significantly affects the complexity of the situation. For example, federal student loan debt is eligible for cancellation upon a borrower’s death, but private student loan companies tend not to offer the same benefit. They can go after the borrower’s estate for payment.

Read more …

Let’s do a stress test that assumes the Fed is no longer around, see what happens.

34 Biggest Banks in US Clear First Hurdle In Fed’s Annual Stress Tests (R.)

The 34 largest U.S. banks have all cleared the first stage of an annual stress test, showing they would be able to maintain enough capital in an extreme recession to meet regulatory requirements, the Federal Reserve said on Thursday. Although the banks, including household names like JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America, would suffer $383 billion in loan losses in the Fed’s most severe scenario, their level of high-quality capital would be substantially higher than the threshold that regulators demand, and an improvement over last year’s level. “This year’s results show that, even during a severe recession, our large banks would remain well capitalized,” said Fed Governor Jerome Powell, who leads banking regulation for the central bank. “This would allow them to lend throughout the economic cycle, and support households and businesses when times are tough.”

The Fed introduced the stress tests in the wake of the financial crisis to ensure the health of the banking industry, whose ability to lend is considered crucial to the health of the economy. Since the first test was conducted in 2009, big banks have seen losses abate, loan portfolios improve and profits grow. The banks that now undergo the exam have also strengthened their balance sheets by adding more than $750 billion in top-notch capital, the Fed said. Banks and their investors have been hoping the improvements would prompt the Fed to allow them to use more capital for stock buybacks and dividends, especially as the Trump administration is seeking to relax financial regulations. Wall Street analysts and trade groups quickly cheered the results on Thursday, saying regulators should feel comfortable easing tough rules put in place since the financial crisis. “We see today’s…stress test results as a positive for Trump administration efforts to deregulate the banks,” said Jaret Seiberg, a policy analyst with Cowen & Co.

Read more …

The biggest debts are still in mortgages. Falling home prices will hurt most.

Credit-Card Debt Slaves Move to Top of Fed’s Bank Worries (WS)

The comforting news in the results from the Federal Reserve’s annual stress test is that the largest 34 bank holding companies would all survive a recession. Based on this glorious accomplishment, the clamoring has already started for regulators to allow these banks to pay bigger dividends and to blow more money on share buybacks, and for these regulators to slash regulation on these banks and make their life easier and riskier in general. We don’t want these banks to survive a recession in too good a condition apparently. And it would likely be better for Wall Street anyway if banks could lever up with risks so that a few of them would get bailed out during the next recession. Let’s remember, for the Fed’s no-holds-barred bailout-year 2009, Wall Street executives and employees were doused with record bonuses.

The Fed’s bailouts were good for them. And it has been good for them ever since. The less comforting news in the stress test is that credit card debt – generally the most expensive and risky debt for consumers – has now moved to the top of the Fed’s worry list in the “severely adverse scenario” of the stress test. The projected losses for the 34 largest banks – not counting the losses at the 4,997 smaller banks – are expected to hit $100 billion, up nearly 9% from the stress test a year ago. The projected losses rose for several reasons, including that credit card balances have grown by 5.6% from a year ago to over $1 trillion. The delinquency rate has risen to 2.4%. The Fed is also blaming looser lending standards. Sharing the top spot on the Fed’s worry list in the “severely adverse scenario” are Commercial & Industrial loans, whose balances are over twice as large, at $2.1 trillion, but whose projected losses are also pegged at $100 billion. In total, the “severely adverse scenario” sees $493 billion in losses for these 34 banks:

Read more …

“..investors, drunk with the liquor of loose money..”

Citizens Will Soon Turn Their Rage Towards Central Bankers (Albert Edwards)

Albert Edwards pwrites “Theft redux: the citizens will soon turn their rage towards Central Bankers.” The core of his argument is familiar: “While politics in the West reels from a decade of economic crisis and stagnation, asset prices continue to surge on the back of continued rapid growth in G3 QE. In an age of “radical uncertainty” how long will it be before angry citizens tire of blaming an impotent political system for their ills and turn on the main culprits for their poverty – unelected and virtually unaccountable central bankers? I expect central bank independence will be (and should be) the next casualty of the current political turmoil.” That’s just the beginning from Edwards, who appears to be getting increasingly angrier and more frustrated with a market that makes increasingly less sense: his fiery sermon continue with the following preview of the “inevitable catastrophe that lies ahead.”

“Evidence of the impact of monetary madness on assets prices is all around if we care to look. I read that a parking spot in Hong Kong was just sold for record HK$5.18 million ($664,200). What about the 3.5x oversubscribed 100 year Argentine government bond? Sure, everything has a market clearing price, even one of the most regular defaulters in history. But what concerned me most about the story was it was demand from investors (“reverse enquires”) that prompted the issue. Is it just me or can I hear echoes of the mechanics of the CDO crisis? But no one cares when the party is still raging and investors, drunk with the liquor of loose money, are blind to the inevitable catastrophe that lies ahead. There is a lot of anger out on the streets, as demonstrated most visibly in recent elections.

Even in France where investors feel comforted that a “moderate” has gained (absolute?) power, it is salutary to remember that the two establishment parties have just been decimated by a man who had never before stood for public office! This is perhaps even more radical than Trump’s anti-establishment victory under the Republican umbrella. The global political situation is incredibly fluid and unpredictable. While a furious electorate has turned its pent up anger on the establishment political parties, the target for their rage is misguided. I am not completely alone in thinking it is the unelected and virtually unaccountable central bankers who are primarily responsible for the poverty of working people and who will be ultimately held to account in the next crisis.

Read more …

In other news: ” Government-funded new social housing has fallen 97% since 2010″.

UK Homelessness Surges 34% Under Tories Since 2010 (Ind.)

The number of families being declared homeless has rocketed by more a third since the Conservatives took power in 2010, analysis of new official statistics by The Independent has revealed. Between April 2016 and March 2017, 59,100 families were declared homeless by local authorities in England – a rise of 34% on the same period in 2010-11. The statistics paint a bleak picture of the UK housing crisis and the impact a lack of decent, affordable homes is having on thousands of families. There has been a 60% increase in the number of families being housed in insecure temporary accommodation. In particular, bed and breakfast-type hotels are increasingly being used to house families for long periods of time as local councils struggle to find them proper homes to live in.

There are now 77,240 families in England currently living in temporary accommodation – up from 48,240 just six years ago. Of these, almost fourth-fifths (78%) are families with children, meaning there are currently 120,500 children living in insecure, temporary homes. Of those being housed temporarily, 6,590 households are living in B&Bs, including 3,010 families with children. Almost half have been living in this type of accommodation, which often sees families crammed into one room and forced to share limited bathroom and cooking facilities with strangers, for more than six weeks. This is illegal under the Homelessness (Suitability of Accommodation) Order 2003, which banned local authorities from housing families with children in B&Bs for more than a six-week period.

Read more …

The Tories are done. Someone should tell them.

UK High Court Judges Tory Policy Causes ‘Real Misery For No Purpose’ (Ind.)

Today, the High Court ruled that the benefits cap, one of the Tories’ flagship welfare policies, is unlawful, because it amounts to illegal discrimination against single parents with small children. It’s likely that the Government will be forced to alter or completely scrap their benefits cap, a policy that limits the total amount a household can receive in benefits to £23,000 in London and £20,000 elsewhere in the UK. High Court judge Justice Collins described the benefit cap as causing “real damage” to single parent families and said “real misery is being caused to no good purpose”. This is the fundamental truth at the heart of Tory welfare policy – misery without progress or reason.

Welfare reform as part of the coalition government’s austerity measures has driven thousands more people into poverty and in many tragic cases, some deaths occurred after individuals were declared fit to work. Austerity was not inevitable. It was an ideologically-motivated programme designed to force the poorest and most vulnerable in our society to shoulder the burden of a financial crisis that they had less than nothing to do with creating. Four claimants brought this case to court. Two of them had been made homeless as a result of domestic violence, and were trying to work as many hours as possible while taking care of children under the age of two. Imagine fleeing an abusive partner, seeking support from a domestic violence service that’s had its funding brutally slashed by the Tory government, trying to work and look after a small child, then having your benefits cut, again by the Tory government.

The claimants are not alone. The benefits cap has inflicted a massive amount of suffering, with 200,000 children from the very lowest income families affected, as their parents’ income has fallen drastically. In real terms, this means that these children’s lives have become even more difficult, and they weren’t easy to begin with. This means a colder house, less food to eat, more shame at school due to unwashed clothes, uniforms that are too small, worn-through shoes. It means stressed, unhappy and increasingly desperate parents, and in family, children can’t fail to pick up on this mood of misery. [..] In this wealthy, highly developed country, poverty is the single biggest threat to the wellbeing of children and families. Poverty affects a quarter of all children in Britain, a massive, disgraceful, inexcusable proportion. one in five parents are struggling to feed their children, and 50% of all parents living in food poverty have gone without meals in order to give their children more to eat.

Read more …

There goes the bubble. Look out below.

Buy-to-Let Uk Property Sales Fall By Almost 50% In A Year (G.)

The number of properties bought by landlords has almost halved in a year after a tax and regulatory clampdown, prompting a leading banking body to downgrade its forecasts for buy-to-let lending in 2017 and 2018. The Council of Mortgage Lenders said buy to let had had a weak start to 2017, with lending falling faster than expected as landlords withdrew from the market in response to major tax changes and tighter lending rules. The data follows a series of recent surveys and indices suggesting the housing market is running out of steam. However, the crackdown on buy to let may have helped young people trying to get a foot on the property ladder. CML said house purchase activity was being driven predominantly by first-time buyers, with their numbers up 8% in the 12 months to April.

Buy-to-let homebuying activity was “nearly half what it was a year ago” and had averaged around 6,000 purchases a month over the last 12 months, said the body, which represents banks and building societies. The number of landlord purchases involving a mortgage was 5,300 in April this year. This compared with 10,300 in February 2016 and 11,800 in July 2015. As a result, the CML has cut its forecast for buy-to-let lending from £38bn being lent in both 2017 and 2018 to £35bn in 2017 and £33bn in 2018. The organisation warned against hitting landlords with any further changes to taxation and lending rules, saying the figures “re-emphasise the case for avoiding further changes to the tax and regulatory framework until the effect of these already in train have been properly assessed”.

Read more …

Download report here: Addicted to Debt – Tracking Canada’s rapid accumulation of private sector debt .

Canada’s Private Sector Debt Growing Faster Than Any Advanced Economy (PA)

For the first time ever, Canada’s private sector is racking up debt faster than any other of the world’s 22 advanced economies, putting the country at risk of serious economic consequences, according to new research by the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives. A new report authored by CCPA Senior Economist David Macdonald reveals that Canada added $1 trillion in private sector debt over the past five years ($2016), with the corporate sector responsible for the majority of it. Economies can become dependent on debt in order to fuel economic and asset price growth. With both rapid private debt accumulation and a high private debt-to-GDP ratio, even a small change in debt growth rates, brought on by changes in interest rates for instance, could have a devastating impact on the larger economy.

“Private sector debt growth is one of the best predictors of economic crisis, and Canada is now the only advanced economy squarely in the debt ‘danger zone’ of having high private sector debt that continues to rise rapidly,” Macdonald says. The report identifies several areas of concern:
• Canada has never before led the advanced economies in private debt growth;
• The last time Canada was close to leading the world in private debt growth was the early 1990s, just as housing prices plummeted and then stagnated for a decade;
• The country’s private debt-to-GDP ratio has risen by a fifth since 2011, from 182% to 218%. The US ratio currently stands at 152%;
• The $315 billion increase in household debt since 2011 ($2016) is almost entirely attributable to the rise in mortgage debt related to rapid home prices increases;
• Corporate debt is less well studied, and rose $671 billion since 2011 ($2016), accounting for two thirds of private debt accumulation over that time;
• Corporate debt was largely spent on mergers and acquisitions as well as real estate purchases, neither of which make the country more productive.

“Canada’s economy has become addicted to binging on ever more private sector debt, and weaning us off it should be our primary public policy concern,” adds Macdonald, who recommends further study of corporate debt and consideration of a housing speculators’ tax to further reign in mortgage debt increases.

Read more …

Well, it can’t be because Buffett see a bright future in Canada’s housing market. So draw your own conclusion.

Warren Buffett Becomes Lender Of Last Resort For Canada’s Home Capital (BBG)

Warren Buffett has become the lender of last resort for Home Capital. The billionaire investor agreed to buy shares at a deep discount and provide a fresh credit line for the Canadian mortgage company, tapping a formula he used to prop up lenders from Goldman Sachs to Bank of America. Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. will buy a 38% stake for about C$400 million ($300 million) and provide a C$2 billion credit line with an interest rate of 9% to backstop the embattled Toronto-based lender, Home Capital said late Wednesday in a statement. The interest on the one-year loan would net Berkshire at least C$180 million if it’s fully tapped.

“While the terms of the new credit line with Berkshire Hathaway remain harsh, we believe the purpose of this loan is to motivate Home Capital’s management to bolster their own funding sources,” said Hugo Chan at Kingsferry Capital in Shanghai, which owns shares in Home Capital. “This again shows Mr. Buffett’s masterful capital allocation skills,” said Chan, citing his investment motto: “be greedy when others are fearful.” The financial backing from Buffett sent the stock higher Thursday, though it comes at a cost, in keeping with his past bailouts of financial firms. Buffett has buoyed some of the biggest U.S. corporations in times of trouble, including a combined $8 billion injection to prop up Goldman Sachs and General Electric when credit markets froze during the 2008 financial crisis.

In the Home Capital deal, Buffett’s firm agreed to pay an average price of C$10 a share, a 33% discount to Wednesday’s closing price of C$14.94. Berkshire would become the largest shareholder in Home Capital, which has a market value of about C$1 billion. Home Capital surged 27% to C$19 in Toronto on Thursday. That gives Buffett a 90% return on paper for the equity investment, assuming the deal goes through.

Read more …

They always have, it’s an MO.

EU Political Class Rides Roughshod over Citizens’ Concerns & Frustrations (DQ)

Merkel has expressed a willingness to go along with two central French demands — the appointment of a Eurozone finance minister and the creation of a common budget — as long as certain conditions are met. “We can of course think about a Eurozone budget as long as it’s clear that this is really strengthening structures and achieving sensible results,” she said. [..] Back on the table is a proposal to upgrade the grossly unaccountable Luxembourg-based European Stability Mechanism (ESM) into a full-fledged European Monetary Fund. As we’ve noted before, creating a European Monetary Fund (EMF) would be an important statement of intent. If Europe’s core countries are truly set on taking the EU project to a whole new level, such as by pursuing the creation of an EU army, an EU border force (with full powers), fiscal union, and ultimately political union, some form of burden sharing will ultimately be necessary.

The establishment of a fully operational EMF could be an important move in that direction. The EMF would essentially act as a fiscal backdrop to the banking system, something the Eurozone has desperately needed ever since its creation. As Bruegel proposes, it would serve as a fiscal counterpart of the ECB to guarantee the financial stability of the euro area in the event of a sovereign or banking crisis, or a threat thereof — of which there are plenty these days, in particular emanating from Italy’s broken banking system. Naturally, the creation of an EMF would deal a further blow to the fading remnants of national sovereignty in Europe. But that’s a price that many (but certainly not all) of Europe’s elite is more than happy to pay; some would say that destroying national sovereignty was the ultimate goal of the EU all along.

In a survey of more than 10,000 EU citizens and 1,800 EU elites carried out by Chatham House, of the elites, 37% believe the EU should get more powers, 28% want to keep the status quo and 31% would prefer to return more powers to individual member countries. This enthusiasm for a more centralized, more powerful EU is not shared with equal enthusiasm by European citizens: 48% want powers returned to the individual member countries. Citizens, overall, do not feel they have benefited from European integration in the same way Europe’s elite does. Whereas 71% of elites report feeling they have gained something from the EU, the figure among the public is only 34%. Even more worrisome for national leaders, a clear majority of the public — 54% — feel that their country was a better place to live 20 years ago, before the euro existed.

Read more …

I’ve seen a few parts. Liked them quite a bit.

Dear Oliver: About Those Putin Interviews (RM)

Dear Mr. Stone: I have just finished watching all four episodes of The Putin Interviews. May I give you my critique? Overall, I felt that the series is Very Good but felt just short of Great. I will explain below what I feel could have made it Great. First, I want to tell you what I really loved about it. 1. You have an easy style. I felt as if Mr. Putin was at ease with you, and you with him. You have a warm command of the English language and can transmit your ideas into language in a very personable way — an art that is missing among so many American media people these days. I felt that you drew out a candid side of Putin, well, that is, as far as a man of his intellectual prowess and disciplined self-control will allow. 2. Best moment of the show: Sitting next to Vlad and watching Dr. Strangelove! Oh my goodness, most people would not even dream of adding such a thing to their bucket list.

3. I loved the walking tour of the President’s offices and the general background of the Kremlin architecture and decor. I pay attention to the daily, tweeted photos from the Kremlin’s official account. I have seen those desks and tables a million times in the photos. But now I have them all within a mental frame, thanks to your film. Question: I was burning to know why Vlad had a pair of scissors and multi-colored construction paper in the middle of his desk, did you happen to ask him, off-camera?

Where It Fell Short Mr. Stone, I hated that so much time was wasted talking about the contrived “Russia hacked the election” meme. Hillary might not know why she lost the election, but the rest of the nation does. When my father would get on a roll with his bad jokes, Mom would tell us kids: “Don’t encourage him.” Well, you too need to stop encouraging the MSM to keep breathing life into a dead meme.

You also wasted time re-hashing Crimea. “Read My Lips,” Vlad said, “the Crimeans ASKED, BEGGED, AND VOTED to rejoin Russia.” Good grief, when McCain’s and Nuland’s beloved neo-Nazi Svoboda party took illegal control of Ukraine, their first move was to try and make it illegal to speak Russian. Geez, half the people in Ukraine ARE Russian! Mr. Putin has exercised considerable restraint towards Ukraine.

Mr. Stone, I have been following the development of BRICS, the “Silk Road Project,” and the EEU (European Economic Union) for a half-decade now. I can’t have a conversation with my neighbors and friends about all of that here in America because not one of them has heard anything about it! You had a great opportunity to ask Mr. Putin to school us on the Sino-Russian version of a multi-polar world without war, but you totally blew it. I don’t think you ever asked Vlad about China, did you?

 

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Saudi Arabia accuses Qatar of supporting terrorism. Rich.

Arab States Send Qatar 13 Demands To End Crisis (R.)

Four Arab states boycotting Qatar over alleged support for terrorism have sent Doha a list of 13 demands including closing Al Jazeera television and reducing ties to their regional adversary Iran, an official of one of the four countries said. The demands aimed at ending the worst Gulf Arab crisis in years appear designed to quash a two decade-old foreign policy in which Qatar has punched well above its weight, striding the stage as a peace broker, often in conflicts in Muslim lands. Doha’s independent-minded approach, including a dovish line on Iran and support for Islamist groups, in particular the Muslim Brotherhood, has incensed some of its neighbors who see political Islamism as a threat to their dynastic rule.

The list, compiled by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Egypt and Bahrain, which cut economic, diplomatic and travel ties to Doha on June 5, also demands the closing of a Turkish military base in Qatar, the official told Reuters. Qatar must also announce it is severing ties with terrorist, ideological and sectarian organizations including the Muslim Brotherhood, Islamic State, al Qaeda, Hezbollah, and Jabhat Fateh al Sham, formerly al Qaeda’s branch in Syria, he said, and surrender all designated terrorists on its territory, The four Arab countries accuse Qatar of funding terrorism, fomenting regional instability and cozying up to revolutionary theocracy Iran. Qatar has denied the accusations.

[..] on Monday, Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani said Qatar would not negotiate with the four states unless they lifted their measures against Doha. The countries give Doha 10 days to comply, failing which the list becomes “void”, the official said without elaborating, suggesting the offer to end the dispute in return for the 13 steps would no longer be on the table.

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Bunch of sicko’s.

Edward Snowden on Twitter: “Biggest @AP scoop in a long time: US government behind UAE torture in Yemen, with some reportedly grilled alive.

In Yemen’s Secret Prisons, UAE Tortures and US Interrogates

Hundreds of men swept up in the hunt for al-Qaida militants have disappeared into a secret network of prisons in southern Yemen where abuse is routine and torture extreme — including the “grill,” in which the victim is tied to a spit like a roast and spun in a circle of fire, an Associated Press investigation has found. Senior American defense officials acknowledged Wednesday that U.S. forces have been involved in interrogations of detainees in Yemen but denied any participation in or knowledge of human rights abuses. Interrogating detainees who have been abused could violate international law, which prohibits complicity in torture. The AP documented at least 18 clandestine lockups across southern Yemen run by the United Arab Emirates or by Yemeni forces created and trained by the Gulf nation, drawing on accounts from former detainees, families of prisoners, civil rights lawyers and Yemeni military officials.

All are either hidden or off limits to Yemen’s government, which has been getting Emirati help in its civil war with rebels over the last two years. The secret prisons are inside military bases, ports, an airport, private villas and even a nightclub. Some detainees have been flown to an Emirati base across the Red Sea in Eritrea, according to Yemen Interior Minister Hussein Arab and others. Several U.S. defense officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the topic, told AP that American forces do participate in interrogations of detainees at locations in Yemen, provide questions for others to ask, and receive transcripts of interrogations from Emirati allies. They said U.S. senior military leaders were aware of allegations of torture at the prisons in Yemen, looked into them, but were satisfied that there had not been any abuse when U.S. forces were present.

“We always adhere to the highest standards of personal and professional conduct,” said chief Defense Department spokeswoman Dana White when presented with AP’s findings. “We would not turn a blind eye, because we are obligated to report any violations of human rights.” In a statement to the AP, the UAE’s government denied the allegations. “There are no secret detention centers and no torture of prisoners is done during interrogations.” Inside war-torn Yemen, however, lawyers and families say nearly 2,000 men have disappeared into the clandestine prisons, a number so high that it has triggered near-weekly protests among families seeking information about missing sons, brothers and fathers.

None of the dozens of people interviewed by AP contended that American interrogators were involved in the actual abuses. Nevertheless, obtaining intelligence that may have been extracted by torture inflicted by another party would violate the International Convention Against Torture and could qualify as war crimes, said Ryan Goodman, a law professor at New York University who served as special counsel to the Defense Department until last year

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Feb 282015
 
 February 28, 2015  Posted by at 11:38 am Finance Tagged with: , , , , , , ,  4 Responses »


DPC Yard of tenement, Manhattan, New York City 1900

Greece Seeks Negotiations On ECB Bond Repayment (Reuters)
Fed Won’t Be Predictable After Lifting Rates, Fischer Says (MarketWatch)
“Monetary Policy Is Bankrupt” Dr. Lacy Hunt Warns (Tavares via Zero Hedge)
Greek PM Alexis Tsipras Rules Out Third Bailout (BBC)
A Fierce Battle Looms (Alexis Papachelas via Kathimerini)
The Tortured Relationship between Schäuble and Varoufakis (Spiegel)
Homeland Security Shutdown Looms After House Fails To Approve Funding (Guardian)
Congress Avoids Homeland Security Shutdown With Stopgap Measure
Q4 Obliterates The Case For QE And ZIRP (David Stockman)
Should the US Make Billions From Student Loans? (Bloomberg)
China Tells West To Consider Russia’s Security Concerns Over Ukraine (Reuters)
UAE Denies Deal To Sell Military Equipment To Ukraine (RT)
Spain Arrests Eight Nationals For Fighting With Rebels In Ukraine (Guardian)
Nemtsov Was No Threat To Russian Government – Kremlin (RT)

Yanis gets creative. 2 days ago it was a payment to the IMF, which he said the ECB could make with money they themselves say belongs to Athens anyway. This one is even smarter: “I see it as a mistake – but the ECB did this with the aim of keeping us in the markets in 2010. They failed.”

Greece Seeks Negotiations On ECB Bond Repayment (Reuters)

Greece called into question on Saturday a major debt repayment it must make to the European Central Bank this summer, after acknowledging it faces problems in meeting its obligations to international creditors. Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said Athens should negotiate with the ECB on €6.7 billion in Greek government bonds held by the Frankfurt-based bank that mature in July and August. Varoufakis did not say what he hoped to achieve in any talks, but he accused the ECB of making a mistake in buying the bonds around the time Greece had to take an EU/IMF bailout in 2010. “Shouldn’t we negotiate this? We will fight it,” he said in an interview with Skai television. “If we had the money we would pay … They know we don’t have it.”

The government of leftist Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras promised to honor all its debt obligations when it struck a deal with the euro zone last week that extended Greece’s bailout program for four months. But Athens will get no more money until the EC, ECB and IMF have approved in detail its economic plans during the four-month period. With tax revenue falling far short of target last month and an economic recovery faltering, the state must repay an IMF loan of around €1.6 billion in March and find €800 million in interest payments in April. It then needs about €7.5 billion in July and August to repay the bonds held by the ECB and make other interest payments.

The ECB bought the bonds on the secondary market under its Securities Markets Programme (SMP) which aimed to reduce borrowing costs for troubled southern European governments during the euro zone debt crisis. However, Greece was frozen out of international debt markets, and more than four years later is still unable to fund itself commercially apart from limited issues of short-term treasury bills. Varoufakis, who has staged a media blitz in recent days to sell the euro zone deal to the Greek people, singled out former ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet for criticism. “One part of the negotiations will be on what will happen to these bonds which unfortunately and wrongly Mr Trichet bought,” he said.

“I see it as a mistake – but the ECB did this with the aim of keeping us in the markets in 2010. They failed.” Varoufakis argued that if the bonds had remained in investors’ hands, their value would have been cut by 90% under a restructuring of Greece’s privately held debt in 2012, reducing the burden on the state. The ECB bought the bonds at a deep discount and made large profits because their value rose as the euro zone debt crisis eased. Under Greece’s second bailout deal, these profits were due to be returned to Athens to help it repay debt. Athens received a partial payment in 2013 but eurozone countries are withholding a further €1.9 billion pending the review of Greece’s economic plans. Varoufakis wants this money sent directly to the IMF to meet the March payment.

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The Fed will stop being predictable, period. There’s no other way to raise rates and let Wall Street banks profit as much as possible.

Fed Won’t Be Predictable After Lifting Rates, Fischer Says (MarketWatch)

The era of the Federal Reserve giving forward guidance to financial markets about its next steps on monetary policy is coming to an end, a top U.S. central banker said Friday. Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer said the Fed would feel too constrained if it “pre-committed” to a steady path for interest rates and so the central bank would not “telegraph every action.” “I know of no plans of following a deterministic path to raise rates, I don’t believe it will happen,” Fischer said at a conference sponsored by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. Instead, the Fed will take into account the behavior of the economy and “shocks we have to deal with.”

At the same time, he said the Fed “doesn’t want to take the markets by surprise on a regular basis” and would explain to investors a general sense of the Fed’s goals. In other comments, Fischer said the Federal Reserve’s bond buying programs, although completed, are is still currently depressing 10-year Treasury yields by about 110 basis points, a top U.S. central banker said Friday. Fischer said the estimate was based on a Fed staff study of the effect on the term premium on 10-year Treasury securities from the combination of all of the Fed’s asset purchase programs. With the Fed’s balance sheet near $4.5 trillion, the programs will continue to apply downward pressure on rates “for some time,” Fischer said. The effects will likely wane over the next few years as the balance sheet begins to normalize, Fischer said.

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All you need to know: “The velocity of money has fallen to a six-decade low in the US.”

“Monetary Policy Is Bankrupt” Dr. Lacy Hunt Warns (Tavares via Zero Hedge)

ET: Keynesian theory has pretty much dominated macroeconomic thinking over the last thirty years. Its “consume now, pay later” policies provide a short-term boost and fit well with politicians’ desire to prop up the economy on their watch. A large number of economists in government, private sector and academia, believe that adding more debt to a debt-inspired crisis is the only solution, and that at some point the economy will reach escape velocity and help pay down those debts. Do you subscribe to this view, especially at these very high debt levels in the economy?

LH: I think that monetary policy at this stage of the game is largely bankrupt. There is certainly nothing that they can do. Monetary policy works through price effects, quantity effects, the potential wealth effect and the currency depreciation effect. None of those mechanisms are operative. The price effects don’t work because the short-term interest rates are at the zero bounds, so that’s out of the picture. The US central bank, the ECB and the Bank of Japan have greatly expanded their balance sheets, but that’s not printing money. Money is an increase in deposits that are available to households and businesses. US monetary growth today is under 6% in the last 12 months, which is lower than when quantitative easing started. The Bank of Japan has doubled the monetary base in the last two years and yet M2 growth is 3% and a little bit more. The same is true in Europe.

Moreover, money alone does not determine economic activity. The velocity of money has fallen to a six-decade low in the US. It has been falling substantially in Europe, as in Japan. When you look at money growth and velocity it’s hard to see where nominal growth can be much better than 1% in Europe and Japan and no better than 2-2.5% in the US. Monetary policy does not benefit from quantitative effects when economies are extremely over indebted. The velocity of money falls and the banks are undercapitalized – banks don’t make loans based on excess reserves, but rather based on capital.

The currency depreciation option by excessive monetary liquidity does provide a transitory benefit. We saw this one when QE1 was started in the US, but that’s a transitory benefit: other countries eventually retaliate making everyone worse off. And the final option is the wealth effect but there is no empirical support for it. So there’s really nothing that monetary policy can do and the fact that inflation in the US is substantially lower than when all of these quantitative easing efforts started is an indication that such policies are a bankrupt effort.

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“Europe has now recognised that Greece has turned a new page..”

Greek PM Alexis Tsipras Rules Out Third Bailout (BBC)

Greece will not need a third international debt bailout when its current programme ends in four months, the country’s prime minister has said. Alexis Tsipras vowed his government would “start working hard” to change the country, which is saddled with a debt 175% of its GDP. Greece has already received two bailouts since 2010, totalling €240bn euros. Germany’s parliament ratified a four-month extension on Friday. While some MPs had expressed doubts about the deal and there was substantial public scepticism in the EU’s leading economic power, the vote passed easily. Parliaments in all 19 eurozone states must approve the extension for it to be granted, but Germany’s vote is seen as significant because of its key role as a creditor nation.

Reacting to the Bundestag vote, Mr Tsipras told the Euronews TV channel: “The German parliament gave Europe a vote of confidence today. “Europe has now recognised that Greece has turned a new page… We start working hard, in order to change Greece within a Europe that changes direction.” Greece remains frozen out of international debt markets, prompting speculation about a new bailout request. However, in a televised speech to his cabinet, Mr Tsipras said Greece’s bailout agreements were “over both in form and in essence”. “Some people are betting on a third bailout in July… but we will disappoint them,” he said.

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“And let’s not forget that it’s a lonely battle.”

A Fierce Battle Looms (Alexis Papachelas via Kathimerini)

There has been plenty of talk regarding cracking down on corruption and vested interests in this country. From Costas Karamanlis’s “pimps” we have arrived at Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis’s e-mail. If you read it carefully, you realize that a large portion of the new program deals with this crucial issue. Besides, it’s common knowledge that the reason why the troika, and the IMF in particular, pulled the rug from underneath the government in the fall was because they felt that Antonis Samaras’s administration would not have dared to stand up to vested interests. SYRIZA’s rhetoric on this particular issue coincided to a large extent with the lenders’ conclusions.

Let’s assume that New Democracy and PASOK indeed failed to go up against “pimps” preying on certain crucial sectors of the economy, especially those tied to the state. But will the current administration succeed? Varoufakis appears rather obsessed with this matter and firmly believes that the country’s growth has been curbed because of these vested interests and corruption. This battle will be hard to win, however, even if the necessary political will is in place. To begin with, as strange as it may sound, a prime minister is particularly powerless in this case. In order to fight corruption you need institutions which are operating properly, as in other European countries, whether it’s the justice system or the ministries themselves.

And let’s not forget that it’s a lonely battle. Any PM wishing to fight vested interests – in other words to go after those bleeding the rest of society dry – will face a very tough front. Essentially, Alexis Tsipras is set to confront two very different groups. One the one hand are the romantics who had hoped for a rift with the eurozone as they believe that it’s legitimate for Greece to follow a non-European, Latin American growth model. They will fight Tsipras because he betrayed them.

Then there are also the cynics who hid behind the holy anti-bailout struggle out of fear they would be deprived of the kind of privileges and protection that allowed them to get unjustifiably rich without contributing anything to production. These people wanted the country to remain in the eurozone while they operated in a drachma-style environment – in other words without having to undergo any kind of checks – or to return to the drachma so that they could act as kings in a super-cheap banana republic. If Tsipras and Varoufakis mean what was written in the latter’s e-mail to the eurozone, the battle is bound to be ferocious. There is a lot of money involved and the profit margins are huge..

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“Varoufakis quickly realized that he was alone, that the other 18 finance ministers were against him. But he took it as validation for his approach.”

The Tortured Relationship between Schäuble and Varoufakis (Spiegel)

Varoufakis is the newest finance minister in the Euro Group; Schäuble has served the longest. Varoufakis is a professor of economics, a man always good for a clever turn of phrase and a beaming smile. Schäuble is better known for being caustic and irritable. He is a lawyer by training and prefers practice to theory; he is matter-of-fact and deeply skeptical of those who seek to grab the spotlight. And he doesn’t hold university professors in high regard. Since Schäuble has gotten to know his new colleague from Athens, his appreciation for economy professors has dropped even further. He is suspicious of those who believe in their own theories and who think that the world is predictable. For Wolfgang Schäuble, societal behavior cannot be easily explained, not even by social scientists. That is why, he believes, negotiated rules – and adherence to those rules – is the best policy.

For Yanis Varoufakis, the euro is a defective currency. For Schäuble, it is his legacy. The German minister is unconcerned with formalities. He doesn’t care if his Greek counterpart tucks in his shirt or not, nor would he be bothered if Varoufakis were to wrap it around his head like a turban. Former Swedish Finance Minister Anders Borg, after all, used to come to Euro Group meetings with his hair in a ponytail. But Borg possessed competence, authority and political gravitas, qualities that, from Schäuble’s perspective, the new Greek finance minister has not yet demonstrated. Schäuble was annoyed by Varoufakis’ insistence during his initial visit to Berlin that he could save not just his country, but the entire euro zone, from the clutches of austerity and install a new financial architecture. And he found the Greek finance minister’s presentation during his first Euro Group meeting, full of well-prepared and well-meaning proposals, to be confused and muddled.

Indeed, by the time Schäuble arrived in Brussels for last Friday’s meeting of euro-zone finance ministers, EU diplomats were finding it difficult to bring the two together in a single room. And tensions were high among others in the group as well. Jeroen Dijsselbloem, head of the Euro Group, had even planned to hold telephone conferences and individual meetings rather than bring everyone together. His concern was the consequence of vigorous disagreement during the previous meeting – a conflict which almost descended into blows. That, at least, is what the long-time Brussels correspondent Jean Quatremer reported, citing sources in the French delegation. Varoufakis, his report said, shouted “liar!” at Dijsselbloem over and over again until the meeting ended inconclusively. Varoufakis denies that version of events. He says the disagreement had to do with different versions of the compromise paper.

Varoufakis says he wasn’t aware that, according to Brussels custom, only the version on Dijsselbloem’s desk was official. The result was that last Friday’s Euro Group meeting was atomized, with small groups of two to four people meeting individually with Schäuble, with IMF head Christine Lagarde, with ECB head Mario Draghi and with Dijsselbloem. Varoufakis quickly realized that he was alone, that the other 18 finance ministers were against him. But he took it as validation for his approach. Late that night, he forwarded an article from Foreign Policy to his Twitter followers headlined “Greece Should Not Give In to Germany’s Bullying.” The piece speaks of the “dead hand of Merkelism” and argues that economic logic lies with the Greek finance minister.

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Kids in the sandbox.

Homeland Security Shutdown Looms After House Fails To Approve Funding (Guardian)

John Boehner’s first attempt to keep the Department of Homeland Security from running out of money at midnight failed in the House of Representatives after more than 50 Republicans baulked at his plan to fund it for just three more weeks. The House speaker had been hoping to prevent a shutdown by buying time to negotiate with conservatives in his caucus over their demands that the bill include a measure to prevent Barack Obama from deferring deportation of undocumented immigrants. But even this three-week stop gap was rejected by 52 Republican congressman who defied their party leadership and joined with Democrats to voted against the bill by 224 to 203 just after 5pm. The department runs out of funds at midnight.

Majority leader Kevin McCarthy concluded by saying: “Members are advised that additional votes are possible later this evening and may be this weekend.” Democrats resisted Boehner’s proposal in the hope of forcing House Republicans to follow their colleagues in the Senate and agree a one-year funding bill. But the impasse now sets up a dangerous game of chicken between the parties as each tries to see who will blink first before current funding for the department expires at midnight. Without funding, the department will be unable to pay tens of thousands of border guards, coast guards and other DHS staff, who will nevertheless have to turn up to work as they are deemed “essential workers”.

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Ooff… they just ordered more sand… nick of time…..

Congress Avoids Homeland Security Shutdown With Stopgap Measure

Congress averted a partial shutdown of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security with only two hours to spare by passing a stopgap funding bill that punts a fight over immigration into next week. The House of Representatives, with support from Democrats, voted 357-60 to send the measure to President Barack Obama for his signature. The Senate passed the measure by a voice vote. Hours earlier, the House failed to pass a three-week spending measure because 52 of Speaker John Boehner’s majority Republicans refused to support it. “It’s no way to govern the nation and the American people deserve better,” House Appropriations Chairman Hal Rogers said to boos from some lawmakers before the late-night vote. Nevertheless, the Kentucky Republican said, “It’s the 11th hour and we must act.”

Funding for Homeland Security operations was set to expire at midnight. Without new spending, thousands of employees would have been furloughed or required to work without pay. The House wants to use the Homeland Security funding bill to block Obama’s November orders that shielded about 5 million undocumented immigrants from deportation. The one-week extension ensures that the immigration issue will continue to dominate a congressional calendar that Republican leaders wanted to fill with debate over policy priorities including job creation, health care policy and curbing business regulations. Instead, Republicans are mired in an immigration debate that risks alienating Latino voters ahead of the 2016 presidential and congressional elections.

It’s a policy confrontation the party can’t win while Obama is in the White House. He has threatened to veto any reversal of his orders. The one-week bill, H.R. 33, carries the shutdown fight into next week when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will address Congress on security issues. The measure, which extends funding only through March 6, was backed by 183 Republicans and 174 Democrats. Voting no were 55 Republicans and five Democrats. Among the Republicans opposing the bill was Representative Mick Mulvaney of South Carolina, who accused Boehner of “unwillingness to challenge” Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, a Nevada Democrat.

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“The 5X gain in the Fed’s balance sheet since 2009 has not been harmless——even though it has not stimulated the main street economy. What is has done, obviously, is reflate a massive financial bubble.”

Q4 Obliterates The Case For QE And ZIRP (David Stockman)

[..]..the case for the Fed’s massive money printing campaign has now been flat-out obliterated. As I documented in the Great Deformation, the short but deep recession of 2008-2009 represented a sharp liquidation of excess inventories and labor that had built up in the main street economy during the Greenspan-Bernanke housing and subprime credit bubble. But that one-time liquidation was over by June 2009; the economy was not sinking into a black hole. Moreover, by the time the US economy began to rebound in mid 2009, the real cause was the natural regenerative power of the capitalist market—not the massive money printing campaign that Bernanke had launched at the time of the Lehman failure in September 2008.

All of the massive liquidity – which took the Fed’s balance sheet from $900 billion to $2.5 trillion in less than a year – worked its magic in the canyons of Wall Street, not in the household and business sectors of the main street economy. The fact is, the only channel through which the Fed can impact the main street economy is through credit expansion. Yet business and household credit outstanding was still shrinking long after the recession ended. The 2% slog that began thereafter had nothing to do with the machinations of the Fed; its represented the return of a steady, modest increment of labor hours and productivity growth to the market economy. But here’s the thing. The 5X gain in the Fed’s balance sheet since 2009 has not been harmless——even though it has not stimulated the main street economy.

What is has done, obviously, is reflate a massive financial bubble. The latter will splatter eventually, sending the main street economy into a new tailspin of short-term labor and inventory liquidation and another financial crisis for no reason whatsoever. Indeed, the monetary politburo is stuck in a dangerous time warp. Not recognizing that the credit channel of monetary transmission is broken and done, they keep money market rates pinned to the zero bound because they claim to detect no acceleration of consumer price inflation on the immediate horizon. So what! Do not these clueless Keynesian apparatchiks recognize that the money market rate and the yield curve are the most important prices in all of capitalism, and that their policy of massive and continuous financial repression generates blatantly false prices in the financial markets and therefore rampant speculation and asset price inflation?

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How America sees educating its children: “The federal aid program .. lends money to students at below-market interest rates, regardless of credit history, with no money down, to purchase an asset that can’t be repossessed in the event of default.”

Should the US Make Billions From Student Loans? (Bloomberg)

A group of Senate Democrats, led by Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, urged the government to offer relief to distressed borrowers this week, even if that dampens the profit it makes from collecting on people with outstanding loans. In a letter to Education Secretary Arne Duncan dated Wednesday, the six senators wrote, “It is not the job of the Department of Education to maximize profits for the government at the cost of squeezing students.” The letter noted that a recent Congressional Budget Office estimate indicates the federal government will bring in $110 billion from these loans in the next decade. Denise Horn, a spokeswoman for the Education Department, said in an e-mail that the department is reviewing the letter. “[We] look forward to responding,” she wrote.

The department should make it easier for people to use the few tools available for demanding a refund on their student debt, the senators wrote. Borrowers who believe that their college committed fraud or lied to them—about job prospects or graduation rates, for example—can file what’s known as a “defense to repayment” claim against the school, according to federal law. But Warren and other senators have railed against the department for not making it clear enough to students how they could make such a claim. More broadly, the senators noted in the letter, the government has not used its power to cancel federal debts outright when the money went to a school that has been accused of abusing students.

“Instead, the Department continues to gouge borrowers who struggle to meet their payments, subjecting them to debt collection, wage and benefit withholding,” the senators wrote. Some point out, however, that there are risks inherent in handing money to people who might just get a degree in basket weaving, without checking their credit score. Lenders typically expect to be compensated for such risks. The federal aid program, education expert Kevin Carey wrote in the New York Times this month, “lends money to students at below-market interest rates, regardless of credit history, with no money down, to purchase an asset that can’t be repossessed in the event of default.”

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Better pay attention!

China Tells West To Consider Russia’s Security Concerns Over Ukraine (Reuters)

Western powers should take into consideration Russia’s legitimate security concerns over Ukraine, a top Chinese diplomat has said in an unusually frank and open display of support for Moscow’s position in the crisis. Qu Xing, China’s ambassador to Belgium, was quoted by state news agency Xinhua late on Thursday as blaming competition between Russia and the West for the Ukraine crisis, urging Western powers to “abandon the zero-sum mentality” with Russia. He said the “nature and root cause” of the crisis was the “game” between Russia and Western powers, including the US and the EU. He said external intervention by different powers accelerated the crisis and warned that Moscow would feel it was being treated unfairly if the West did not change its approach.

“The West should abandon the zero-sum mentality, and take the real security concerns of Russia into consideration,” Qu was quoted as saying. His comments were an unusually public show of understanding from China for the Russian position. China and Russia see eye-to-eye on many international diplomatic issues but Beijing has generally not been so willing to back Russia over Ukraine. China has also been cautious not to be drawn into the struggle between Russia and the West over Ukraine’s future, not wanting to alienate a key ally. It has said it would like to continue to develop “friendly cooperation” with Ukraine, and respects the ex-Soviet state’s independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Qu’s comments coincide with talks between the United States and its European allies over harsher sanctions against Moscow. On Monday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused Western powers of trying to dominate and impose their ideology on the rest of world. The United States and European delegations slammed Moscow for supporting rebels in eastern Ukraine. Qu said Washington’s involvement in Ukraine could “become a distraction in its foreign policy”. “The United States is unwilling to see its presence in any part of the world being weakened, but the fact is its resources are limited, and it will be to some extent hard work to sustain its influence in external affairs, ” Qu was quoted as saying.

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Forgive us for believing, even for a moment, one single thing that came out of Kiev. What were we thinking? They’re building an amazing record.

UAE Denies Deal To Sell Military Equipment To Ukraine (RT)

The United Arab Emirates is not selling military equipment to Ukraine, despite earlier statements by Kiev officials, the UAE Foreign Ministry said. “An agreement on cooperation in defense technologies the UAE and Ukraine signed recently does not stipulate any contracts for deliveries of weaponry to the Ukrainian side,” said Faraj Faris al-Mazrouei, adviser to UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan. The deal was only one element in a future system of cooperation between the two countries in the field of defense technologies, RIA Novosti reported al-Mazrouei as saying, citing the Emarat Al-Yawm news portal.

The UAE and Ukraine signed a memorandum of understanding on military-technical cooperation during the IDEX-2015 defense exhibition in Abu Dhabi earlier this week. After the signing, an advisor to Ukrainian Interior Minister Arsen Avakov, Anton Gerashchenko, wrote on social networks that this cooperation would include “the supply of certain types of arms and military equipment to Ukraine” by the UAE. “The types and volumes of supplies, as you can imagine, are not for disclosure on Facebook,” Gerashchenko said. The advisor stressed that “unlike Europeans and Americans, the Arabs aren’t afraid of Putin’s threats of a third world war starting in case of arms and ammunition supplies to Ukraine.”

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Who fought Franco, and how many of them were arrested? How ’bout Hemingway?

Spain Arrests Eight Nationals For Fighting With Rebels In Ukraine (Guardian)

Police have arrested eight Spanish men who returned from fighting alongside pro-Russia forces in eastern Ukraine, in what they said was the first operation of its kind in Europe. Officers detained the suspects in six regions across Spain after they returned from predominantly Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine, the interior ministry said in a statement. They had gone to Ukraine last year where they joined pro-Russia groups fighting for independence in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, the statement added. The Spaniards belonged to the far left and were inspired by the International Brigades, the multinational volunteer forces that fought against Francisco Franco’s uprising during the Spanish civil war in the 1930s.

They are suspected of being accomplices in killings allegedly carried out by pro-Russia groups, and of possessing arms. “Their activities can be considered offences that compromise Spain’s peace or independence, as Spaniards who, while taking part in an armed conflict, violate the neutrality Spain must keep in relation to the international community,” the statement said. The interior ministry said it was the first operation in Europe directed against foreign fighters in Ukraine. Pro-Russia forces in eastern Ukraine are battling those of the Ukrainian government, which is backed by the west.

Over 30,000 foreign fighters are taking part in the conflict, according to the Ukrainian armed forces. A large number come from Russia and former Soviet states, but many have come from Israel, Serbia, Spain, Italy and Brazil. “These arrests sadden me,” a leader of Ukraine’s pro-Russian separatist rebels, in Donetsk, Denis Pouchiline, told AFP. “I think we are going to demand explanations from Spain over this incident. There are many volunteers in our ranks, the greatest number come from Russia, but there are representatives from Spain, Italy, France … it is the first time that they have these types of problems.”

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The western press will play it for all they can, as will the political field. But Putin had no reason to kill the guy, and wouldn’t have done it this way if he had.

Nemtsov Was No Threat To Russian Government – Kremlin (RT)

Boris Nemtsov did not pose a threat to the Russian government, according to presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov. The murder of the Russian opposition figure has been called a “provocation” by a number of politicians and public figures. Boris Nemtsov was killed Friday evening in the center of Moscow. A veteran of Russian politics, he was an influential figure in the 1990s and held the post of deputy prime minister under former President Boris Yeltsin. Though he had been more involved in business than politics since 2003, he was a critic of the Russian government.

“With all due respect to the memory of Boris Nemtsov, in political terms he did not pose any threat to the current Russian leadership or Vladimir Putin. If we compare popularity levels, Putin’s and the government’s ratings and so on, in general Boris Nemtsov was just a little bit more than an average citizen,” Peskov said on Saturday. Russian President Vladimir Putin has condemned the assassination and expressed his condolences to the family, Peskov added. “Putin has stressed that this brutal murder has all [the] signs of a contract murder and is extremely provocative.”

Irina Khakamada, an opposition figure who was Nemtsov’s ally in the SPS party (Union of Right Forces), called the murder a “provocation” aimed at destabilizing Russia. “It is definitely not beneficial to Putin and it is aimed at destabilizing everything to tatters,” she said.

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