Feb 232020
 


Jack Delano Spectators at annual barrel rolling contest in Presque Isle, Maine 1940

 

COVID19 Cases Outside China Go Exponential (ZH)
Millions Of Chinese Ordered Back To Work (Obs.)
China’s 92% Car Sales Collapse Sign Of Sharp Trade Decline To Come (SCMP)
Trump Furious Americans Infected With Coronavirus Flown Back To US (Fox)
18 Koreans Test Positive For COVID-19 After Israel Pilgrimage (KH)
US Says Russia Behind Coronavirus Disinformation Campaign (G.)
Roger Stone Deserves A New Trial (Turley)
Julian Assange, Lawyers Were Secretly Recorded In Ecuador Embassy (ABC.au)
Subprime Credit Card Delinquencies Spike to Record High, Past Financial-Crisis Peak (WS)
Trump Reportedly Calls John Bolton A ‘Traitor’ And Wants To Block His Book (G.)
Trump: ‘Congrats Bernie…Don’t Let Them Take It Away From You!’ (SAC)

 

 

Cases 78,866 (+ 938 from yesterday’s 77,928).

Deaths 2,464 (+ 102 from yesterday)

 

• Italy: Thursday 3 cases, Sunday 115 cases, 89 in Lombardy, declares “national emergency”;
second death reported, first case in Milan city; much of Northern Italy put on lockdown. Top-level soccer games cancelled.

• South Korea: total 556 cases (10x increase in 5 days), 123 new cases, 1 new death

• Iran: 29 cases 6 deaths

• US: 35 cases, 200 under observation in San Diego

• Japan: 750 cases, 634 from Diamond Princess, Others triple in a week to 121

• Cases outside China go exponential

• WHO team visits Wuhan; will give Monday press conference

• 18 Koreans test positive after Israel pilgrimage. Israel Ministry of Health expects to close borders for non-residents soon

• Worldometer mortality rate for closed cases (recovered/discharged or dead) is 10%

 

From SCMP:

 

 

From Worldometer (note: mortality rate for closed cases is still 10%!)

 

 

 

 

Big week to come. Given all the new clusters forming, outside of China, things don’t look particularly good. Inside China there are efforts to start moving people around again, to work. Very risky. Many of the clusters and cases outside of Hubei are relatively new, so infection hasn’t worked its worst there.

COVID19 Cases Outside China Go Exponential (ZH)

South Korea reported 229 new confirmed cases on Saturday, as the number of infections more than doubled in a day to 433, an eightfold jump in just four days. [..] the number of new cases in South Korea has now doubled each day for the past 4 days, a true exponential increase. South Korea’s fourth-largest city, is where the initial cluster of cases of emerged; it has since been designated a “special management zone.” The central government is channeling medical support to the zone with more staff, hospital beds and equipment. In Daegu, more than half of South Korea’s cases have been among members of a secretive religious sect who often crowd together in worship, and their relatives or contacts.

Another 111 are patients or staff members at the Daenam Hospital in Cheongdo, where the two South Koreans who have died of the virus had been admitted. It gets worse: more than 1,250 members of the sect, the Shincheonji Church of Jesus, have reported potential symptoms, and officials are still trying to locate 700 members so they can be screened. “In accordance with law and principles, the government will sternly deal with acts that interfere with quarantine efforts, illegal hoarding of medical goods and acts that spark uneasiness through massive rallies,” Chung said, pointing out just how convenient the coronavirus will be when government seek to squash all future protests.

It gets even worse: Samsung, the world’s biggest smartphone maker, shut down a factory after a worker tested positive. The factory, located in the city of Gumi, about an hour north of Cheongdo, is expected to resume operations on Monday morning, Samsung said. But the floor of the factory where the patient has worked will be closed until Tuesday morning, it said. We wonder how long until it truly reopens. But the scariest development in the past 24 hours is that almost all patients at a psychiatric ward of a South Korean hospital tested positive for the coronavirus, with local reports saying members of the abovementioned Shincheonji Church of Jesus sect which has rapidly emerged as the single biggest cluster of new S. Korean cases, had attended a funeral in the same complex.

South Korea’s two confirmed deaths from the virus were also from the Daenam Hospital in Cheongdo hospital’s mental health division, Korea’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Saturday. Both patients had been moved out of the psychiatric ward for medical treatment before their deaths, Vice Health and Welfare Minister Kim Kang-lip said at a briefing. In other words, of the total 443 confirmed cases, more than half, or 231 were linked to Daegu, sect, while at least 111 – including four nurses – were from the psychiatric ward of the hospital in Cheongdo County. The two clusters account for almost 80% of the confirmed cases.

Read more …

Dumb understatement: “An influential Chinese economist has already warned that the coronavirus crisis could slice a full percentage point off growth this year”

Millions Of Chinese Ordered Back To Work (Obs.)

The Chinese authorities are trying to usher the country back to work, a month after announcing the unprecedented quarantine of millions of people. But they face a difficult balancing act between containing the virus and supporting a faltering economy. Wuhan and surrounding Hubei province, the centre of the outbreak, have been the focus of disease prevention efforts. over the last four weeks. As the death toll climbed to more than 2,000 worldwide, and infections to over 75,000, the vast majority of cases were still inside that quarantined zone. But the disease had spread far across the country before Hubei was sealed off, and some of the worst-affected places are the manufacturing and economic centres that power China’s economy.

Southern Guangdong province, just across from Hong Kong and home to international giants such as Apple supplier Foxconn, is the second-worst affected province after Hubei, with 1,339 cases of the coronavirus confirmed and five deaths. Eastern Zhejiang, near Shanghai, is the fourth most seriously hit, with 1,205 cases by , although only one death. It is also the base for companies including the hugely influential Alibaba, China’s answer to Amazon and eBay. Those total numbers of infections are far above the 639 cases registered across all of China on 23 January, when Hubei was put on sudden lockdown. The situations are not directly comparable; coronavirus had been spreading almost unchecked in Wuhan for weeks before the quarantine, and overwhelmed hospitals appear to have sent patients home, only to spread the disease.

Authorities in other areas started tracking cases much earlier and have better resources to isolate and treat those who fall sick, something reflected in a much lower death rate. The speed of the disease’s spread is perhaps not surprising given Wuhan’s position as a regional economic hub, with links to other key centres, and the fact that the coronavirus has proved contagious in the early days of infection when patients have few symptoms, making it hard to identify carriers as clusters spread. Yet China cannot afford for its factories to sit idle, or its restaurants and shops to stay empty indefinitely. Authorities were already worried about faltering growth after last year saw the slowest rate of expansion in almost three decades; GDP growth had not slid so low since 1990, when China was isolated in the aftermath of the Tiananmen Square massacre.

An influential Chinese economist has already warned that the coronavirus crisis could slice a full percentage point off growth this year. So authorities are trying to balance two unfathomable risks – of either fuelling the coronavirus by pushing too much for normal routines, or paving the way for the collapse of their local economy by keeping everything on lockdown. Many small and medium companies in particular are already hovering on the brink, and a wave of bankruptcies is expected. Retail and hospitality companies expected bumper sales over the lunar new year, and even factories that closed for the holiday expected to reopen in early February.

[..] In Shenzhen, the border city that has come to rival Hong Kong, businesses have been told they can resume work immediately if they have virus control measures that include disinfecting, giving employees at least two masks a day, making temperature checks, and having their plans approved by local officials. There is already a gap between regulation and reality, however. “We started today, but the boss only gave us one mask when we all know he’s supposed to give out two,” said one 52-year-old woman employed at a Shenzhen factory making plastic items such as skateboard wheels, cups and toy parts. “My husband, who works at a restaurant near here, is also only getting one mask per day,” she added, giving only her last name, Xiao, over fears of being fired or getting her boss into trouble.

Read more …

Why would anyone expect sales to pick up anytime soon?

China’s 92% Car Sales Collapse Sign Of Sharp Trade Decline To Come (SCMP)

A 92 per cent drop in car sales in China in the first half of February provided the first real indicator of the economic impact of the coronavirus epidemic, with officials also warning of a sharp decline in Chinese exports and imports for the first two months of the year. The China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) on Friday said that sales dropped to just 4,909 units in the first 16 days of the month, down from 59,930 vehicles in the same period a year earlier. “Very few dealerships opened in the first weeks of February and they have had very little customer traffic,” said the CPCA. China’s car market is likely to see sales slide more than 10 per cent in the first half of the year due to the outbreak, and around 5 per cent for the whole year, provided the virus is effectively contained before April, the country’s top industry body, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), said last week.

The sector was already under pressure from the cooling economy, with car sales falling 3 per cent in 2018 in the first sales contraction since the 1990s, and 8.2 per cent in 2019, CAAM said. “We must firmly believe that China’s auto market still has great development space and potential, and the automobile consumption demand is still strong,” Wang Bin, vice-director of the commerce market operation department at the commerce ministry, said on Thursday. To stabilise the market, in which more than 25 million vehicles were sold last year, China’s commerce ministry said it will introduce more measures to boost consumption.


Li Xingqian, head of foreign trade at the Ministry of Commerce, said the growth rate for China’s exports and imports would decline sharply in the January-February period due to a collapse in logistics and the delayed start of work following the extended Lunar New Year holiday, which was aimed at controlling the coronavirus outbreak.

Read more …

Simply not their call to make.

Trump Furious Americans Infected With Coronavirus Flown Back To US (Fox)

President Trump was furious that 14 Americans infected with the coronavirus returned to the United States without his permission rather than remain in quarantine overseas, according to a new report. Trump had been briefed that the healthy U.S. passengers who spent weeks quarantined aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship in Japan would be allowed to fly home on two chartered planes – while those who were sick or infected would stay in Japan to prevent the spread of the deadly virus. The president became “furious” with senior advisers after learning the 14 Americans who tested positive had been put on a plane with healthy passengers, according to The Washington Post.


One official told the paper that the failure to inform Trump of the decision in advance of the plane’s departure was a “big operational mistake.” Trump complained that bringing home the infected Americans could damage the adminstratration’s response to the global health outbreak. While the Americans evacuated from the ship were on buses on the tarmac in Tokyo, U.S. officials got the results back that 14 had tested positive for COVID-19 but had not yet shown symptoms. Officials made the decision to have them fly home anyway, but “isolated” from the other passengers on the plane.

Read more …

“The South Korean government lodged a complaint with Israel over its abrupt entry ban against South Koreans over concerns about the new coronavirus: “demand that such an incident not occur again”

18 Koreans Test Positive For COVID-19 After Israel Pilgrimage (KH)

Of 76 Koreans who traveled to Israel for religious pilgrimages in February, 18 tested positive for the deadly coronavirus upon returning home, local health authorities said Sunday. Two groups of Roman Catholic travelers stayed in Israel for about a week each for religious tourism earlier this month, visiting packed religious sites. Among 39 Koreans from North Gyeongsang Province who visited Israel from Feb. 8-16, 18 have been confirmed positive, including a tour guide residing in Seoul. A 59-year-old woman who lives in Yecheon County, North Gyeongsang Province, was the first confirmed patient. She was unable to go to work upon arrival due to a high fever and respiratory problems.


Local health authorities are scrambling to narrow down the exact times when the patients could have been infected, leaving open the possibility that a group member may have caught the virus prior to departure or somewhere along the travel route either in Israel or Korea. Another group of 37 people from Jeju Island traveled to Israel from Feb. 11-21, and one person with a cough was waiting for their test results as of Sunday afternoon. The presence of COVID-19 in these Korean tourists, as well as the skyrocketing number of confirmed cases here, prompted Israel to bar travelers from Korea from entering the country, the Israeli government said. As a result, some 130 Koreans who landed in Tel Aviv on Saturday evening, local time, were sent back to Korea after being denied entry.

Read more …

Using the same accounts they use for Syria, Yellow Vests etc. Just to make it easier for those smart Americans to figure out it’s them. That’s also why they [..] “carry messages similar to Russian-backed outlets such as RT..” You know, just so Americans don’t get all confused and stuff.

US Says Russia Behind Coronavirus Disinformation Campaign (G.)

Thousands of Russian-linked social media accounts have launched a coordinated effort to spread misinformation and alarm about coronavirus, disrupting global efforts to fight the epidemic, US officials have said. The disinformation campaign promotes unfounded conspiracy theories that the US is behind the new coronavirus outbreak, in an apparent bid to damage America’s image around the world. State department officials tasked with combatting Russian disinformation told the AFP false personas were being used on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram to advance Russian talking points in multiple languages.

“Russia’s intent is to sow discord and undermine US institutions and alliances from within, including through covert and coercive malign influence campaigns,” said Philip Reeker, acting assistant secretary of state for Europe and Eurasia. “By spreading disinformation about coronavirus, Russian malign actors are once again choosing to threaten public safety by distracting from the global health response,” he said. Some accounts have falsely claimed the US is waging “economic war on China” and that the virus is a biological weapon manufactured by the CIA.


[..] Several thousand online accounts – previously identified for airing Russian-backed messages on major events such as the war in Syria, the Yellow Vest protests in France and Chile’s mass demonstrations – are posting “near identical” messages about the coronavirus, according to a report prepared for the state department’s Global Engagement Center and seen by the AFP. The accounts are run by humans, not bots, and post at similar times in English, Spanish, Italian, German and French. They can be linked back to Russian proxies, or carry messages similar to Russian-backed outlets such as RT and Sputnik, the report said.

Read more …

Turley doesn’t acknowledge why Stone was dragged in front of Congress. Which was on a completely fabricated charge. That Stone himself did some of the fabricating seems a bit beside the point. I would be interested in Turley’s view on that, rather thann the obvious bias involved.

Roger Stone Deserves A New Trial (Turley)

With his sentencing this week, “agent provocateur” Roger Stone finally provoked himself into prison. However, his latest “performance art” may be nowhere near its conclusion. That is not because he has a “very good chance of exoneration,” as President Trump himself predicted. Stone has about the same chance of exoneration as he does of canonization. Rather, it is not clear that Stone received a fair trial due to alleged juror bias or, even if his trial is now finished, whether it will become undone by a presidential pardon. If nothing else, one thing should be clear. Stone holds a far greater claim to a new trial than to a presidential pardon. The decision of Judge Amy Berman Jackson to move forward with his sentencing was a surprise to many of us, following disturbing reports of potential juror bias by the trial foreperson.

It was a curious twist on the position of the Queen of Hearts in Alice in Wonderland, who declared, “Sentence first! Verdict afterwards.” In this case, the court decided to resolve the sentence before resolving if there was a valid verdict. I have previously discussed the statements made by Tomeka Hart before she became the jury foreperson. She exhibited intense hostility against Trump and his associates and protested against the administration. She also expressed support for investigations of the administration and even discussed this case. Worse yet, the transcript of the voir dire hearing did not suggest that the defense counsel was aware of this history. Either she disclosed the information and defense counsel was less than effective, or Hart had withheld the information and was less than transparent.


Jackson may have two equally unappealing choices. First, the court could order a new trial, making this sentencing drama a meaningless exercise. Second, she could dismiss any concerns as speculative and refuse to take any action. Such a decision would make a mockery of the jury selection process. What is the value of voir dire if a juror with such alleged bias can find her way not just onto the jury but into the position as foreperson?

Read more …

Roger Waters: “We will speak so loudly even the deaf will hear. We will write so clearly even the blind will read. You write injustice on the earth. We will write revolution in the sky.”

Julian Assange, Lawyers Were Secretly Recorded In Ecuador Embassy (ABC.au)

The case is being investigated by Spain’s federal court, the Audencia Nacional, which is examining whether Morales and UC Global are guilty of breaching both Assange’s privacy and lawyer-client privilege, as well as crimes relating to misappropriation of funds, bribery, and money laundering. “From 2015 to mid-2018, when UC Global lost the embassy’s security contract, a battery of illegal espionage measures was deployed, with massive interference in the privacy of [Assange], in his communications with his [legal] team, in meetings with his doctors, and in general against everyone close to him,” a criminal complaint filed by Assange’s Spanish lawyers stated.

“In those years the defendants created a sort of ‘Big Brother’ in which all the movements of Mr Assange and the people close to him were monitored.” The case commenced after a group of Spanish citizens contacted senior WikiLeaks employees and demanded a significant sum of money in return for what they said was voluminous proof of the espionage. A former UC Global employee — who cannot be identified for legal reasons — also separately approached WikiLeaks, wanting to reveal what they saw as the illegal behaviour of their former company. WikiLeaks referred the case to Spanish courts, who launched an investigation and arrested Morales. He was later released on bail. “This spying did not only affect Mr Assange’s lawyers, it also affected all of his visitors, including journalists,” Martinez said.

“It got to the point where, during a visit to Mr Assange, the head of Ecuador’s intelligence service [Rommy Vallejo, on December 21, 2017] was also spied on,” Martinez added. “In the meeting between Mr Vallejo and Mr Assange the possible release [from the embassy] of Mr Assange in a few days later was discussed.” Within hours of that secret meeting, which was known to only a few people, the US Ambassador to Ecuador complained to Ecuadorian authorities, and the next day the US issued an international arrest warrant for Assange, Martinez said. “That leads us to believe that the conversation was urgently sent to the US authorities and that they urgently issued the international arrest warrant the next day,” he said.

Martinez was himself spied on while having legal meetings with Assange at the embassy. “Mr Assange began to suspect that he was being spied upon … so he asked us to hold the most sensitive meetings in the women’s toilet at the back of the building,” Martinez recalled. “We honestly thought it was an exaggerated step to hold our legal meetings in the women’s toilet, where he would even open the water tap to avoid anyone listening. “It was interesting to find out that Mr Assange was, in fact, correct: the material before the court proves that UC Global knew the meetings were held inside the women’s toilet, as they proceeded to install an additional microphone [there].”

Read more …

Meanwhile in the not-yet-infected part of the world:

Subprime Credit Card Delinquencies Spike to Record High, Past Financial-Crisis Peak (WS)

The rate of credit card balances that are 30 days or more delinquent at the 4,500 or so commercial banks that are smaller than the top 100 banks spiked to 7.05% in the fourth quarter, the highest delinquency rate in the data going back to the 1980s (red line). But at the largest 100 banks, the credit-card delinquency rate was 2.48%, which kept the overall credit-card delinquency rate at all commercial banks at 2.7% (blue line), though it was the highest since 2012, according to the Federal Reserve. What’s going on here, with this bifurcation of the delinquency rates and what does that tell us about consumers?

Clearly, those consumers that have obtained credit cards at the smaller banks are in a heap of trouble and are falling behind at a historically high rate. But consumers that got their credit cards at the big banks – lured by 2% cash-back offers and other benefits that are being heavily promoted to consumers with top credit scores – do not feel the pain. A similarly disturbing trend is going on with auto loans. Seriously delinquent auto loans jumped to 4.94% of total auto loans and leases outstanding. This is higher than the delinquency rate in Q3 2010 amid the worst unemployment crisis since the Great Depression. On closer inspection, there was that bifurcation again; prime-rated loans had historically low delinquency rates; but a shocking 23% of all subprime loans were 90+ days delinquent.

Read more …

“I give the guy a break,” he added. “I give him a job. And then he turns on me. He’s just making things up.”

Trump Reportedly Calls John Bolton A ‘Traitor’ And Wants To Block His Book (G.)

John Bolton is “a traitor” and his book should not be published before the election in November, Donald Trump reportedly told aides and media figures. The president’s views on news of a book deal for Marie Yovanovitch, another key figure in the Ukraine scandal which led to Trump’s impeachment, were not immediately clear. Bolton, a former ambassador to the UN, was Trump’s third national security adviser until he was fired in September last year. He refused to testify in the House impeachment inquiry into Trump’s attempts to have Ukraine investigate his political rivals, which resulted in two articles of impeachment, concerning abuse of power and obstruction of Congress.

He offered to testify in the Senate but Republicans voted not to call witnesses during a trial which duly ended in Trump’s acquittal, despite leaks from Bolton’s book manuscript seeming to show he possessed key knowledge about the affair. The Room Where It Happened was slated for publication in March but it has been held up, the national security council telling Bolton’s lawyer it would “move forward as expeditiously as possible” with determining what could be published. On Friday night, the Washington Post cited two anonymous sources as saying Trump had told his own lawyers the book should not come out before the election.


Trump has attacked Bolton publicly on Twitter but the Post also reported notes of an off-the-record briefing of TV anchors on 4 February. “We’re going to try and block the publication of the book,” Trump reportedly said. “After I leave office, he can do this. But not in the White House. “I give the guy a break,” he added. “I give him a job. And then he turns on me. He’s just making things up.”

Read more …

CNN’s desperate attempt to attract a handful viewers still bores me to tears. Andrew Yang and Donald Trump know what’s wrong.

Trump: ‘Congrats Bernie…Don’t Let Them Take It Away From You!’ (SAC)

President Trump congratulated Bernie Sanders in his projected win in democratic primary in Nevada. As of Saturday evening, Sanders is leading with 53.84 percent of the vote in the Nevada caucuses. “Congratulations Bernie, & don’t let them take it away from you!” he added in a tweet. “Looks like Crazy Bernie is doing well in the Great State of Nevada,” Trump wrote. “Biden & the rest look weak, & no way Mini Mike can restart his campaign after the worst debate performance in the history of Presidential Debates.” Trump followed with another tweet, quoting Jon Scott of Fox News, on a report that showed Sanders having strong support from within the Kremlin. “The Kremlin is reportedly backing Bernie Sanders bid to win the White House.” Jon Scott @FoxNews,” the president wrote. “Why didn’t somebody tell me this?”

Read more …

 

 

 

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Home Forums Debt Rattle February 23 2020

This topic contains 47 replies, has 16 voices, and was last updated by  John Day 1 month, 1 week ago.

Viewing 40 posts - 1 through 40 (of 48 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #54260

    Jack Delano Spectators at annual barrel rolling contest in Presque Isle, Maine 1940   • COVID19 Cases Outside China Go Exponential (ZH) • Million
    [See the full post at: Debt Rattle February 23 2020]

    #54261

    V. Arnold
    Participant

    Jack Delano Spectators at annual barrel rolling contest in Presque Isle, Maine 1940

    Their faces are interesting in their expressions…towards the camera…

    #54262

    I love that photograph. Why are you taking a picture of us, and not the event? The dog is my favorite. Love the event itself: barrel rolling. Location, location: Presque Isle is 5 miles from Canada, and darn cold in winter.

    #54263

    V. Arnold
    Participant

    The dog is my favorite.

    Sharp eyes you…
    I didn’t see it…………

    #54264

    Dr. D
    Participant

    Pretty useless around here. With 1 Billion people under quarantine, 33 countries and 4 continents involved, involved, a death rate of 3-10%, even normal, conscious people like Tim Pool say, “You know, we might want to not be ashamed to do something, sometime, you know, in the future. They’re thinking about maybe calling this an ‘epidemic’. It might get serious someday, who knows?” Clue phone: 1 BILLION people? Hello, hello…?

    “ . . . “

    Yeah, if we don’t look out, this might turn into something, you know, dangerous, like a thing we might want to do something about and s—t. You know who isn’t serious? You guys. They are not serious people. They are incapable of serious thoughts and actions. They are not adults. The only upside here is that at least they will (mostly) die with the rest of us. The downside is, it’s THEIR inability to be serious, logical, to read words like “40 day quarantine” with their little eyes and have them land on their brain like any 10-year-old can is the CAUSE of the problem. But that’s #Facts. Must be resisted at all costs, even if you die of it.

    And you thought I was lying, exaggerating. Sadly no, if all the wars and thousands of deaths, slave markets, child rape swaps, and endless impoverishment of virtually everyone didn’t clue you in.

    Next part: nobody is in the least mad about it. They’re not going to do anything about any of the seven levels of h—l they’ve intentionally put upon you, for your own family soon dying. Applause! They finally found a war that culls 5% of the planet’s poor in a way we can all get behind! #Winning! Just as they’ve written continuously for 50 years, and Oops!, an accident.

    coronavirus crisis could slice a full percentage point off growth this year”

    Not serious.

    “China’s car market is likely to see sales slide more than 10 per cent”

    Not serious.

    14 Americans who tested positive had been put on a plane with healthy passengers,”

    Not serious.

    The South Korean government lodged a complaint with Israel over its abrupt entry ban against South Koreans

    Not serious.

    US Says Russia Behind Coronavirus Disinformation Campaign (G.)”

    Never serious.

    And I’ll tell you here, no American, not even medical people are in the least serious about it either. They’re all going to smack into the medical/economic brick wall and put on their surprised face and say, “Who’d a thunk? Nobody coulda knowd.” except for literally everyone, and a million preppers since the 90’s who told you about police militarization, the fake war, the housing crash, the tech bubble, the patriot act, and literally everything else that’s happened since then. I’d tell you 3 years ago when they started the idiotic, irrational charge into “driverless cars” and “home drone deliveries” “door-front pickup” that mostly can’t be done and make not a lick of sense in God’s green earth except to confront quarantines we didn’t (yet) have. Nobody saw that with me? I’m not even smart. Nope, medical people, being ‘experts’ are going to do nothing, plan nothing, change nothing, stock nothing. Okay, that’s not fair, they’re smart people: 5% of them will try to do something and be shut down by taffy and red tape by the other 95%. Tell me if in your experience I’ve got this right, Dr. D.

    #54266

    kimyo99
    Participant

    given regular asymptomatic transmission and frequent false negative test results the cdc (or your local govt health agency) should immediately advise healthcare/grid/refinery/law enforcement/emergency services to avoid all public gatherings and adopt stringent hygiene protocols.

    if they wait until a local covid outbreak has developed it will be too late. the time to protect these critical people is now.

    #54267

    boscohorowitz
    Participant

    You know things are crazy bad when Dr. D is reduced to “not serious”.

    #54268

    Dr D Rich
    Participant

    You are correct, Dr. D.

    Harkens back to the sad musings of my Hungarian great grandfather, Laszlo, whose younger brother was turned away at Ellis Island, refused entry by immigration officials because he was “too sick”. Repatriated to Hungary I suppose and never seen by family in America again.

    And Laszlo’s first daughter, a toddler age 2, died in 1919 during the middle of Spanish Flu epidemic. He blamed himself for “bringing the flu home” from the bar he frequented at the end of his shift underground in a 3.5 foot coal seam. Somehow the health authorities restrictions on public movement made it to his small mining town of 75 people and only served to cement his sense of guilt. We’ve made substantial progress in curbing the social stigma associated with infectious disease.

    So, yeah Dr. D, our peers are in it the money. If not for money, they/we fear losing their/outr jobs in the At Will workplace to Leadership who don’t have a clue that bacterial super-infection associated with viral pneumonia is a likely causative factor for the high death rate.

    But war, social upheaval and panic always help…..

    #54269

    wdt
    Participant

    OK, an update. I am still alive, a month later
    (I am 85% sure that I have had nCoV, from something
    assembled in guangdong beginning of year, quickly shipped)
    So, my guess is that the 9 days viability when dark & cool should be +50%)
    The 1st 2 weeks rather unpleasant, much sleep helps
    The pneumonia was only minor, I was watching like a hawk,
    I do have animal antibiotics if it seemed needed (was not)
    Bacterial pneumonia added would be a killer
    (since China is rather dirty, I suspect this is a factor there,
    _I_ got bacterial pneumonia there (near wuhan actually) 9 yrs ago)
    I did take vitamin C & D, I think D (in adequate dose)
    will cut mortality to 1/2. Also black elderberry may be helpful,
    and iodine, maybe selenium(carefully, don’t overdose Se)
    When phlegm started coming up, well it tasted quite odd,
    I never have tasted anything like that (only slightly ickky)
    Not so much fevers, more chills
    Myself* was already adequate with D, so only increased 5000 iu
    Most should take 10,000 iu or if sure deficient 20K for a week
    So, better get 2 bottle/person if it is usual 1000 iu pills
    (* a few yrs ago, I realized that more calcium (4+) would keep
    foot and hand (less) cramps away, if I didn’t add D
    I would have to double that, more of a problem in late winter,
    for obvious reasons)
    The horse has left the barn, probably nearly everyone will get it
    I have my doubts that it could have been stopped by any effort,
    but the blatant incompetence made it inevitable
    I also find it ironic that for both ccp AND usa add 2 zeros to the numbers
    So the CDC kicked the can down the road for a whole month, to save us panic,
    at the cost of at least 1/2 of their credibility,, WHAT A DEAL
    Most fortunate for ccp that children are little affected,
    nothing more fierce than a mother with sick child and someone to blame

    #54270

    zerosum
    Participant

    truth
    https://www.crosstex.com/sites/default/files/public/educational-resources/products-literature/guide20to20face20mask20selection20and20use20-202017.pdf
    Guide to Face Mask Selection and Use

    “virus control measures that include disinfecting, giving employees at least two masks a day, making temperature checks, and having their plans approved by local officials. There is already a gap between regulation and reality, however. “We started today, but the boss only gave us one mask when we all know he’s supposed to give out two,” said one 52-year-old woman employed at a Shenzhen factory.”

    the fact that the coronavirus has proved contagious in the early days of infection when patients have few symptoms, making it hard to identify carriers as clusters spread. Yet China cannot afford for its factories to sit idle, or its restaurants and shops to stay empty indefinitely.
    —–

    The president became “furious” with senior advisers after learning the 14 Americans who tested positive had been put on a plane with healthy passengers, according to The Washington Post.
    —–

    A GOV TRUTH PATROL
    (If the info that you got is different than our info then it cannot be true.)
    https://www.state.gov/bureaus-offices/under-secretary-for-public-diplomacy-and-public-affairs/global-engagement-center/
    Our Mission
    To direct, lead, synchronize, integrate, and coordinate efforts of the Federal Government to recognize, understand, expose, and counter foreign state and foreign non-state propaganda and disinformation efforts aimed at undermining or influencing the policies, security, or stability of the United States and its allies and partner nations. -Section 1287 of FY17 NDAA (as amended by the FY19 NDAA)

    ” messages about the coronavirus, according to a report prepared for the state department’s Global Engagement Center and seen by the AFP. ( I could not find that report)
    The accounts are run by humans, not bots, and post at similar times in English, Spanish, Italian, German and French. They can be linked back to Russian proxies, or carry messages similar to Russian-backed outlets such as RT and Sputnik, the report said.”

    ——

    Tell me if in your experience I’ve got this right, Dr. D.
    Did your info come from Global Engagement Center? /s

    #54271

    Italy cases rise to 321, Iran deaths rose to 8. It’s becoming hard to keep track. With cases spreading all over the world, the numbers come in spread as well

    Total cases are now 78,966 from the 78,866 above
    Deaths are 2,469 from 2,464

    #54272

    zerosum
    Participant

    @wdt
    ” …. The horse has left the barn,”

    Dr. cannot help. Pharm. cannot help. Spraying the street with XXX doesn’t help.
    Therefore, your recommended purchases will only help the seller and could be harmful if not used properly.

    #54273

    Dr. D

    I’d tell you 3 years ago when they started the idiotic, irrational charge into “driverless cars” and “home drone deliveries” “door-front pickup” that mostly can’t be done and make not a lick of sense in God’s green earth except to confront quarantines we didn’t (yet) have.

    Not sure about this as a business model. One of the first effects of quarantines will be loss of income and therefore spending power. Already a major issue in China.

    #54274

    zerosum
    Participant

    KEEP WATCHING – TIME WILL TELL IF IT WORKS

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/crazy-amount-requests-private-jet-demand-soars-elites-flee-asia-amid-pandemic
    “Crazy Amount Of Requests:” Private Jet Demand Soars As Elites Flee Asia Amid Pandemic
    private jet flights between Hong Kong to Australia and North America soared in January by 214% compared with a year ago.
    The jump in private jet flights suggests a mass exodus of business elites and their and their families from China, Hong Kong, and surrounding areas, who are getting the hell out of a dodge as the virus outbreak worsens.

    #54275

    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    Ilargi: “…mortality rate for closed cases is still 10%!

    That 10% is the worldwide rate. I haven’t seen what the rate is outside of China, where there are still relatively few cases per country, and the healthcare systems aren’t overloaded yet. So I did the simple math and got this result:

    Mortality rate for closed cases (outside of China) = 9%

    #54276

    Interesting too, Doc. Makes you wonder what the 2% or so numbers are based on.

    Then again, cases we see so far may well be those that are so advanced they can no longer be denied. Then then again, how many Americans and Europeans have died of pneumonia that were in fact carriers?

    About those cases. What are the odds that a family doctor in the US or Britain thinks of COVID19 when someone comes in with a cough? Northern Italy woke up and went from 3 to 321 cases in 3 days. Why would that not be repeated in other countries? And if a family doctor thinks of COVID19 at all, would they have a test-kit?

    I was reading the soccer team of Barcelona have a game in Naples this week, and Italy has a whole list of demands for their medical staff. Check temperature, etc etc. Naples is 500 miles from Milan. But what about the fans who travel to away games? Will they check all those thousands of them as well? Haven’t read anything on that yet.

    #54277

    I think Tyler is very right, as tragic and stupid as it sounds:

    The Tokyo Olympics are the major barometer right now. If they get cancelled, then the world will know: This outbreak is out of control.

    The Olympics are 5 months away. The IOC is looking at alternative cities as we speak of course, but their problem is they can’t guarantee any city will be free of COVID19 in July.

    Meanwhile, cases in Japan tripled in a week, and they’re not counting the people who walked into the country straight off the Diamond Princess after one or even zero tests.

    #54278

    zerosum
    Participant

    ” if a family doctor thinks of COVID19 at all, would they have a test-kit?”
    Yes, but only in 3 states.

    Don’t forget, americans who don’t have insurance and cannot get free doctor visits will not go see a doctor for a sore throat and a cough. They will go when they think that they have pneumonia that can be treated by prescription medicine from a doctor.
    Lets not forget that most employers do not pay an employee who does not show up for work. USA Employers do not believe in sharing the wealth to non – workers.

    #54279

    wdt
    Participant

    >Therefore, your recommended purchases will only help the seller
    You must know very little about nutrition
    All that I mentioned will improve immune response,
    unless the person is ALREADY adequate in them
    (and adequate is uncommon)
    Yes, an overdose of Se is quite toxic, don’t overdose
    You can overdose vitamin D, eat a polar bear liver
    The doses I recommended are not an overdose,
    literally could save thousands, I would estimate 1-2% total pop
    And BTW others also recommend this
    But few will do, stupidity is it’s own reward
    And Doctors don’t believe in nutrition, it’s too hard, competiton
    So you have to do this on your own, do several web searches,
    throw away top and bottom, use your head

    #54280

    zerosum
    Participant

    KEEP WATCHING – TIME WILL TELL IF THE VIRUS CAN TRAVEL BY PRIVATE JETS

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/23/politics/trump-india-visit/index.html
    In India, Trump aims for crowds and strategic friendship
    Kevin Liptak-Profile-Image
    By Kevin Liptak

    Trump has proclaimed 7 to 10 million people will come to watch him as he arrives for his first visit to India on Monday and speaks from Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s hometown Ahmedabad.

    #54281

    On a lighter note (about the picture): Saddle shoes!
    I AM MAKING THIS UP :
    In what could be a brilliant move for oligarchic presidential candidate Bloomberg, he has decided to redirect some of his incalculable wealth to start manufacturing antibiotics and other medical necessities and paraphernalia here in the United States. Not to be outdone, oligarchic incumbent Trump says he will go forth and do likewise, and his stuff will be beautiful and PERFECT.
    One can dream, right?

    #54282

    lasttwo
    Participant

    Do you think that after the virus has run it course and the 45 million uninsured not to mention the millions of underinsured that do not seek medical treatment and become carriers, spread the virus far and wide even the republicans will support medicare for all.

    #54283

    anticlimactic
    Participant

    Russian ‘Disinformation’

    The US is upset that some think they created the virus.

    Is it plausible?

    One report claims that the US spent 100 billion dollars on bio-warfare and that they have worked with bat viruses. It is racially targeted in that it is most deadly to the Chinese [and Japanese]. What horrors have these people created? It is pretty certain they will have created COVID-19 type viruses.

    #54284

    Anyone who can develop similar viruses, will. Here’s a list of labs that can. The US has 13 BSL-4 labs. Britain has 8. China has one, and it’s in Wuhan. Racially targeted? Perhaps. But this ACE2- containing virus is now killing white Italians. Maybe China is chosen because it’s the best place to start a pandemic. Lots of people in close contact. Then again, it could well be an accidental escape.

    Biosafety level 4 (BSL-4)

    #54285

    Maxwell Quest
    Participant

    Let’s not forget that most employers do not pay an employee who does not show up for work.

    Yes, and many years ago the high-tech industry went from a “sick day” benefits model to a “PTO” (Paid Time Off) model, effectively lumping both sick time and vacation days together. What effect did that have? Well, who wants to waste that time off when you’re sick with the flu during the winter when you can save it all for those sunny days of summer? Naturally, we came in sick so that we could enjoy those days off when we were healthy.

    #54287

    zerosum
    Participant

    And now we’re finding patients can go 27 days without showing symptoms.

    * * *
    ” …. The horse has left the barn,”

    Will the new flu replace the old flu.
    YOU CANNOT DIE MORE THAN ONCE.

    #54288

    zerosum
    Participant

    https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/it-will-be-really-really-bad-china-faces-financial-armageddon-85-businesses-set-run-out

    “…. in two months China (INSERT: + USA) will face a financial, economic and social cataclysm the likes of which it has never seen in its modern history.”

    #54289

    Dave Note
    Participant

    Dr D’s rant captures the current surreal zeitgeist of Covid-19.

    I have longed for a quintessential term to describe the current ‘brain trust’ of each and every country on earth. Not bureaucrat, not nomenklatura, something closer to a mindboggling lack of common sense.

    Ladder of Success

    World ‘leaders’ aren’t children or adolescence or teens, even thought they act like them, but are too old.

    But they’re NOT adults either, in any conceivable sense of the word.

    So what’s the correct term?

    I winnowed it down to Sub-adult.

    The Germans might say Untererwachsenen

    It has a ‘Negative Clank’, reminiscent of something vaguely sinister.

    An example of a Sub-adult,

    to wit: Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases

    She is still pimping the 14 day quarantine window when an overwhelming amount of data reports suggests a min. of 21-24 days and some data suggests longer than a month+

    Surely she read the memos and dispatches from the trenches and front lines. The MSM should be drawn and quartered for their criminal lack of honest, accurate reporting but She, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, has a better Intel, smokes better weed.

    But that’s the thing about Sub-adults, they are infatuated with their own title and job description and don’t think about, well, anything, other than what her underlings deposited on the teleprompter for her to regurgitate in the limelight.

    So even a derogatory epithet like Sub-adult doesn’t even register on their unevolved brain pans.

    I frankly don’t think humans and humanity are wise enough to survive anymore.

    The cheerleaders for unchecked human population for the last century are going to be surprised how Covid-19 is going to rip a swath through 7 billion hyper connected individuals.

    And Covid-19 is just the first ‘Proof of Concept’ to be leaked from the Doomsday Bio-labs,which shouldn’t even exist if not for Sub-adults.

    It makes nuclear weapons seem quaint and cute as a kitten.

    #54290

    WES
    Participant

    Dr.D:. Yes, you got it 100% right! In Canada Trudope is the poster child!

    Trudope has been too busy spending taxpayer’s money jetting around the world bribing 3rd world countries to vote him a seat on the UN security council to worry about the coronavirus!

    Trudope can’t even get a handle on a small bunch of natives blockading railroads in Canada over a gas pipeline being built in BC, never mind find time to worry about a virus! Well over a 1,000 Canadians have been laid off so far as a result of Trudope not wanting to hurt protester’s feelings!

    The local paper showed a carton with the parlament buildings with this “Hi everybody! I’m back from my UN Security Council Seat schmoozing world tour … Anything happen while I was away?”

    Ah, no!

    They capture the mood very effectively of an immature leader who can’t deal with reality!

    #54291

    WES
    Participant

    Dave Note:. If there are any mice at the top of the ladder, I would agree it won’t end well! The cat has no worries!

    #54292

    Dave Note
    Participant

    Wes
    I’m confident our fearless ‘leaders’ world wide don’t have aenough common sense not to put their hand into a moving fan blade.

    Fan Hand

    #54293

    Dave Note
    Participant
    #54294

    WES
    Participant

    Doc Robinson:. Not sure how you came up with 9% death rate but it agrees with my rough rule of thumb.

    My rough rule of thumb is:. We know about half of the 18% who catch the virus need serious medical intervention to survive. The other half of the 18% die. That means 9% will die.

    We also know some of the cremators in Wuhan have stopped working due to over use! Since most of the people in Wuhan who need medical help are being denied help, the death rate could easily be closer to 18%. That would be up to 18,000 deaths per 100,000 infections!

    Based upon Korea’s numbers, China likely has over 1,000,000 infected people or up to 180,000 dead. Not pretty.

    #54295

    WES
    Participant

    Dave Note:. Sadly you are 100% correct!

    I have worked on large industrial fans that would put wood chippers to shame!

    #54296

    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    Mortality rate for closed cases outside of China = 9%
    (with the caveat that the calculation, as outlined below, was done with official numbers)

    Mortality rate for closed cases outside of China =
    (Deaths outside of China) / (Closed cases outside of China) = 9%

    Note:
    Closed cases = Deaths + Recovered

    #54297

    WES
    Participant

    Economics wants to be taken seriously, like science.

    So an economist predicts China will see a 1% drop in economic activity!

    And you want us to take you seriously?!

    Wuhan, a city of well over 10 million people is 1% of China! Since the entire province of 58.5 million (or about 5%) is in total lockdown, 1% is just the starting point!

    As a economist, surely you can do better than 1%! Try counting your fingers!

    #54298

    Doc Robinson
    Participant

    Some more quotes from Roger Water’s speech at yesterday’s rally for Assange:

    This last year we have seen major protests erupt across the whole world against neoliberal/fascist regimes. In Chile, The Lebanon, Colombia, Ecuador, Haiti,France and now, of course also in Bolivia fighting the new US imposed military dictatorship there.

    When will we see the name of England appended to that noble list? I sense the scratching of heads in drawing rooms across the home counties, “What’s he talking about, the man’s a bloody pinkopervert, bloody anti semite, what’s he talking about? We don’t live in a dictatorship, this is a free country, a democracy, with all the finest traditions of fair play, pah!”

    Well, I’ve got news for you Disgruntled of Tunbridge Wells. We’d like to think this is a free country, but are we really free? Why, when Julian Assange is brought to the dock in the tiny magistrates court inside Belmarsh prison are so many seats occupied by anonymous American suits, whispering instructions into the attentive ear of the prosecution’s lead barrister, James Lewis QC?

    Why?

    Because we don’t live in a free country, we live in a glorified dog kennel and we bark and/or wag our tails at the bidding of our lords and masters across the pond.

    I stand here today, in front of the Mother of Parliaments, and there she stands blushing in all her embarrassment. And just upstream from here is Runnemede, where in 1215, we, the English, laid out the rudiments of common law. Magna Carta, ratified in 1297 article 29 of which gave us Habeus Corpus. Or did it? It stated:

    “The body of a free man is not to be arrested, or imprisoned, or outlawed, or exiled, or in any way ruined, nor is the king to go against him or send forcibly against him, except by judgment of his peers or by the law of the land.”

    Sadly, Article 29 is not enforceable in modern law. Magna Carta is only an idea, and in this propaganda driven modern world, it provides no check in principle to Parliament legislating against the rights of citizens.

    We do however have an extradition treaty with the USA and in the first paragraph of article 4 of that treaty it states. “Extradition shall not be granted if the offense for which extradition is requested is a political offense.” Julian Assange has committed no crime but he has committed a political act. He has spoken truth to power. He has angered some of our masters in Washington by telling the truth and in retribution for the act of telling the truth they want his blood.

    …There are other speakers here, so I will make way, I could stand here all day railing against the dying of the light should we not stand Bulldog like, with arms linked, ranks closed in front of our brother and comrade Julian Assange. And when the lackies of the American Empire come to take him, to destroy him and hang him in the hedge as a warning to frighten future journalists, we will look them in the eye and steadfast with one voice we will intone.

    “Over our dead fucking bodies.”

    Roger Waters Feb 22nd 2020

    <a href=”https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2020/02/roger-waters-on-julian-assange/” rel=”noopener”

    #54299

    WES
    Participant

    Doc Robinson: Either way, the numbers are horrible!

    I think we should just stop paying any attention to China’s fake numbers!

    Sadly we are now getting our own real numbers.

    It would have been much nicer, for us, to only have had to humor the Chinese.

    But it has gone well past that point now.

    #54300

    zerosum
    Participant

    http://textbookofbacteriology.net/growth_3.html
    The Growth of Bacterial Populations
    In the laboratory, under favorable conditions, a growing bacterial population doubles at regular intervals. Growth is by geometric progression:
    Four characteristic phases of the growth cycle are recognized.
    1. Lag Phase.
    2. Exponential (log) Phase.
    3. Stationary Phase
    4. Death Phase.
    Growth Rate and Generation Time

    As mentioned above, bacterial growth rates during the phase of exponential growth, under standard nutritional conditions (culture medium, temperature, pH, etc.), define the bacterium’s generation time. Generation times for bacteria vary from about 12 minutes to 24 hours or more.

    The difference between bacteria and viruses


    Bacteria reproduce asexually by making an internal copy of themselves and then splitting, in a process called binary fission.
    Viruses

    Viruses are just genetic material (DNA) in a protein shell. They can’t reproduce by themselves, they need a host cell. Viruses dock onto the membranes of their host cell (human cell or bacteria cells) and insert their genetic material into the cell.
    The virus DNA manipulates the cell and turns it into a virus replication machine. All resources of the cell are spent on replicating (duplicates/copies) this viral DNA and producing protein shells to builds lots of different new viruses inside the cell. Then the cell is either programed to die and the cell bursts open releasing the viruses or the cell is kept alive and keeps realeasing viruses through its membrane.

    HELP
    I cannot find characteristic phases of the growth cycle , Growth Rate and Generation Time for virus?

    #54301

    zerosum
    Participant

    I find the following blog the best to understand the economic impact on China.
    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/big-hit-xi-warns-economic-fallout-covid-19-outbreak
    “Big Hit” – Xi Warns Of Economic Fallout From Covid-19 Outbreak

    as the pandemic spreads across the world, now shutting down parts of South Korea, Japan, Iran, and Italy, the whole containment narrative has broken down – and the global economy could be nearing a prolonged period of below-trend growth.

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